Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Showing posts with label Saudi Arabia. Show all posts

Saturday, August 8, 2026

Will the Mecca Pact Deter Attacks Against Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey?

Pakistan has historically enjoyed close friendly ties with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. So why did the three nations feel the need to formalize these ties with a mutual defense agreement in Mecca this week? Many answers to this question can all be traced to a fundamental change in the security environment in the Middle East. Foremost among these changes is the extremely reckless behavior of the state of Israel which has had full political, military, economic and diplomatic backing of the West. This unqualified western support began with the Gaza genocide and culminated in the launch of joint US-Israeli assault on Iran in February this year.

The entire Middle East region and the Islamic world has helplessly witnessed as the Israeli military butchered innocent civilians in Palestine and Lebanon and threatened to expand the war to the entire region. Some Israeli politicians issued warnings to Turkey and Pakistan. During this period, the West not only failed to restrain Israel but actively supported it with funds and weapons. The United States and Britain also suppressed domestic criticism of Israel by arresting or deporting people. They went after the chief prosector and the judges of the International Criminal Court (ICC) after it issued war crimes indictments of Israeli officials for their conduct in Gaza.

The joint Israeli-American aggression against Iran has spiraled into Iranian attacks against the US bases in the Persian Gulf region. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, strangling the flow of oil and gas to the rest of the world. It has caused high oil prices, negatively impacting the global economy, Pakistan has stepped in to broker a ceasefire and mediate between the United States and Iran.

While there are many explanations and interpretations of the rationale for the Mecca Pact, there is no question that signing such a mutual defense agreement has been accelerated by the security situation created by Israeli aggression in the Middle East which was fully backed by the United States and other major western nations. It seems that the United States and its western allies have legitimized the principle of "might is right" in the Middle East. Essentially, the law of the jungle has replaced the "rules-based" world order. Hard power now matters more than ever.

In recent years, Pakistan has emerged as a credible military power in terms of both conventional and nuclear capabilities. The Pakistani military's strong performance was recognized in May this year as it responded to what India called its "Operation Sindoor". The country has developed a range of short and medium-range missiles capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. Its longest range missile Shaheen 3 can hit deep inside India and Israel. In 2024, the Biden administration imposed sanctions against Pakistan after accusing it of developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US mainland.

Combining the Turkish military-industrial capacity with Saudi economic resources and Pakistan's large military and nuclear umbrella creates a formidable deterrent to any adventurism by Israel or any other hostile power against any of these three countries. That is the fundamental value of the Mecca Pact.

On the global stage, Pakistan has long sought to balance its foreign policy between China and the United States through a pragmatic hedging strategy, gaining economic, military, and diplomatic benefits from both superpowers while maintaining strategic autonomy. But the relationship between Pakistan and China is not the same as the one between Pakistan and the United States. Pakistan's ties with China are strategic while those with the United States remain tactical and transactional. What has changed recently is that Pakistan is no longer waging war to help the United States as it did during the "Cold War" and the "War on Terror". Instead, Pakistan has emerged as a peacemaker between the US and Iran.

Saturday, August 1, 2026

Geopolitics: Changing Dynamics of Pakistan's Ties to China and the US

Pakistan has long sought to balance its foreign policy between China and the United States through a pragmatic hedging strategy, gaining economic, military, and diplomatic benefits from both superpowers while maintaining strategic autonomy. But the relationship between Pakistan and China is not the same as the one between Pakistan and the United States. Pakistan's ties with China are strategic while those with the United States remain tactical and transactional. What has changed recently is that Pakistan is no longer waging war to help the United States as it did during the "Cold War" and the "War on Terror". Instead, Pakistan has emerged as a peacemaker between the US and Iran.

Both China and US Are Courting Pakistan

In a piece titled "Pakistan's Great Game", French political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot has explained what he sees as Pakistan's "tactics and strategy" in dealing with the two superpowers. Here's a quote from Jaffrelot's recent article on the subject:

"While Pakistan’s relationship with China is rooted in strategic logic, its relationship with the United States is more tactical in nature-and has been since the 1950s, when General Ayub Khan boasted of his ability to play "one lion against another" (referring to the United States and the USSR at the start of the Cold War). In its dealings with the United States, Pakistan has played the role of intermediary, or even "client," within a typical clientelist framework: in exchange for the services Islamabad provided to Washington, the United States provided Pakistan with substantial aid and agreed to sell it sophisticated weapons, and even to train its officers-a privilege greatly appreciated..... The first major service rendered by the Pakistanis to the Americans was none other than the intermediary role played by General Yahya Khan vis-à-vis Chairman Mao in the early 1970s, which led to the United States’ recognition of the People’s Republic of China. Over the following decade, Pakistan served as an intermediary between Washington and the mujahideen tasked with driving the Soviets out of Afghanistan. And in the 2000s, Pakistan was tasked by Washington with hunting down al-Qaeda-with much more mixed success this time, as evidenced by the discovery of bin Laden’s hideout in Abbottabad in 2011".

Pakistan PM Sharif (L) with Chinese President Xi

Jaffrelot goes on to say that the United States has repeatedly proved to be an unreliable partner of the South Asia nation. "Whenever the United States no longer needed Pakistan-or even felt betrayed by it-it abandoned the country or even imposed sanctions on it", he writes.

More recently, Pakistan's usefulness to the US has once again become obvious, no longer to wage war against the USSR or terrorism, but to make peace with Iran, Jaffrelot says.

"In 2026, Pakistan appears useful once again, no longer to wage war against the USSR or terrorism, but to make peace. Each time, these glorious episodes were very short-lived and came to an end due to criticism of the Pakistani regime’s authoritarianism - with the military always remaining in power, even when civilians are in the forefront; its ties to Islamists accused of terrorist activities - particularly in India; or accusations of nuclear proliferation. Will the same be true tomorrow, once the war in Iran is over and the United States no longer needs Pakistan? Everything will, of course, depend on the outcome of the conflict and the role Pakistan plays in resolving it-for it will be harder to send Islamabad back home if the world owes it something resembling peace".

Oval Office Photo: L to R: VP JD Vance, President Trump, PM Sharif, FM Munir & Sec of State Rubio

Jaffrelot argues that "Pakistan has reached a turning point through the recognition of its military capabilities, as reflected in the mutual defense agreement it signed with Saudi Arabia...... Last June, Kaja Kallas, the EU Vice President in charge of the Union’s international relations, on the occasion of the 8th Strategic Dialogue between Pakistan and the European Union in Islamabad, thanked Pakistan-"a major regional power"-for its efforts in helping to avert an "all-out war" in the Middle East. Jaffrelot now sees Pakistan's new role as a "net security provider" in West Asia and the Middle East.

He writes: "A more significant factor entering the equation relates to regional balances of power: Pakistan will continue to serve as a "net security provider" for Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia if those countries continue to fear the rise of Israel - a potential regional hegemon - and if they doubt Washington’s intentions, or even its mere reliability. There is no doubt that Pakistan itself will do everything in its power to prevent Israel from asserting itself on the regional stage and to gain influence over Iran-which is what the Israeli-American plan for regime change in Iran might have entailed. At the very least, faced with the risk of Israeli hegemony based on force and repeated military interventions, Pakistan could emerge as the architect of a resistance front bringing together not only Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, but also Iran".

Jaffrelot expects India to continue its decade-long campaign to isolate Pakistan internationally. "India’s ability to isolate Pakistan-the strategy Narendra Modi has pursued for more than a decade-is another important variable, though its significance may be undermined by New Delhi’s drift toward authoritarianism and ethnocracy, as well as by the economic and social crisis threatening the country", according to Jaffrelot.

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Can Pakistan's JF-17 Become Developing World's Most Widely Deployed Fighter Jet?

Worldwide demand for the JF-17 fighter jet, jointly developed by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (CAIG), is surging. It is attracting buyers in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. At just $40 million a piece, it is a combat-proven flying machine with no western political strings attached. It has enormous potential as the lowest-cost 4.5 generation fighter jet featuring AESA radar, enhanced electronics, and superior weapons systems.

Pakistan PFX Concept Fighter. Source: Raksha Anirveda

In addition to the Pakistan Air Force, it is currently deployed by the air forces of Azerbaijan, Myanmar and Nigeria. Multi-billion dollar orders are in the pipeline from several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Libya and Sudan. Bangladesh is reportedly negotiating to purchase JF-17s in the near future. These orders are not just one-time purchases; they include service and training contracts, as well as spare parts and future upgrades. The US-based business publication Bloomberg recently reported: "After Pakistan said it used the jets to great effect in its brief conflict with India last year, at least five countries have expressed interest in buying them. That sudden demand may put the country’s defense industry in a crunch". So the question now is: Can Pakistan deliver?

Currently, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) has the capacity to manufacture up to 20 JF-17s per year, sufficient to fill the orders from the Pakistan Air Force. It uses a Pakistani airframe, Chinese-made KLJ-7A AESA radar and Russian Klimov RD-93 turbofan engine. Additional capacity is being added at PAC to meet rapidly growing demand. A Chinese aviation expert told China's Global Times that this could be a "sweet problem" for Pakistan, as backed by strong order demand, the country's aviation industry is expected to develop rapidly, and potential capacity constraints are ultimately not a true concern given China's support for Pakistan in manufacturing this type of fighter jet.

The JF-17 is opening doors for Pakistan’s defense industry. The country is emerging as a major arms supplier to developing countries in Asia and Africa. Talks underway with at least 13 countries for JF-17 jets, drones and weapons, with several negotiations at an advanced stage.

Azerbaijan, Myanmar, Nigeria and Sudan have all made significant arms purchases from Pakistan in recent years. Azerbaijan expanded its order for JF-17 Thunder Block III multi-role fighter jets from Pakistan from 16 to 40 aircraft. The recent order extends a 2024 contract worth $1.6 billion to modernize Baku’s airborne combat fleet to $4.6 billion. This makes Azerbaijan the largest export customer of the Pakistan-made warplane. Bangladesh is negotiating purchase of up to 32 JF-17 Thunder Block III aircraft from Pakistan.

In the Middle East Pakistan has orders to supply JF-17s to Libya and Saudi Arabia. In a deal with Libya, Pakistan will sell over two dozen JF-17 fighter jets and 12 Super Mushak trainer aircraft used for basic pilot training. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are in negotiations to convert about $2bn of Saudi loans into a deal to buy JF-17 fighter jets, according to Reuters.

In Africa, Pakistan has recently signed a $1.5 billion contract to supply combat drones and military trainer aircraft to Sudan. The order includes 150 armored vehicles, 220 drones and 10 K-8 Karakorum trainer/light attack aircraft. Earlier in 2021, Pakistan sold three JF-17 Thunder fighter jets and ten Super Mushshak trainer aircraft to Nigeria in a deal worth nearly $200 million. From 2018 to 2021, Pakistan sold 11 JF-17 Thunder Block I aircraft to Myanmar.

Air forces of about a dozen developing nations are buying and deploying Pakistani made aircrafts. The reasons for their choice of combat-tested Pakistan manufactured airplanes include advanced BVR (beyond visual range) features, affordability and ease of acquisition, maintenance and training.

Pakistan started developing defense hardware for import substitution to reduce external dependence and to save hard currency. Now the country's defense industry is coming of age to lead the way to high value-added manufactured exports.

Pakistan has unveiled its PFX (Pakistan Fighter Experimental) program as a significant upgrade to its JF-17 joint program with China. The new upgrade will have a number of stealth features ranging from the use of radar-absorbing composite materials and diverterless supersonic inlets (DSI) to internal weapons bay (IWB) which will significantly reduce the aircraft's radar signature. It is targeted for completion by the end of this decade. In addition, the PFX's twin-engine design will improve maneuverability and allow greater payload capacity.

The program is part of Pakistan's broader strategy to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and strengthen the domestic defense industry. Currently, 58% of JF-17 components are manufactured locally by PAC, but Pakistan aims to increase this share to achieve full production autonomy for the PFX. It is not just about the PAF modernization but also about positioning Pakistan as an important player in the global military aviation market.

The PFX is an evolution of a plan that Pakistan announced in 2017 to develop and produce 5th generation fighter planes. It is part of Pakistan Air Force's highly ambitious Project Azm that includes building Kamra Aviation City dedicated to education, research and development and manufacturing of advanced fighter jets, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and weapon systems.

The PAF has already started replacing its aging fleet with the induction of the Chinese J10C fighter jets which are considered 4.5 Gen. The J10-C has stealth features like diverterless supersonic inlets (DSI). Its BVR capability is supported by PL-15 missiles, with an engagement range of up to 200 kilometers, facilitating long-range target engagements.

The PAF has also begun the process of acquiring 5th generation Chinese J35 fighter jets. The delivery of 40 J35 fighters to Pakistan is expected within two years, potentially altering regional dynamics, particularly concerning India.

Saturday, September 27, 2025

Pak-Saudi Joint Defense: Is Pakistan A Major Power or Bit Player in the Middle East?

The recently signed “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan states that “any aggression against either country will be considered an aggression against both”. It is being seen by some geopolitical analysts as the beginning of an "Islamic NATO". Others, such as Indian-American analyst Shadanand Dhume, have dismissed Pakistan as no more than a "bit player" in the Middle East. Where does the truth lie?

Pakistan PM Shahbaz Sharif(L) with Saudi Crown Prince MBS

Is Pakistan really capable of defending Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf nations against external aggression such as the recent Israeli attack on Qatar? Can Pakistan provide a nuclear umbrella to deter aggression against its friends in the Middle East? Or is it too weak economically and unstable politically to provide security guarantees to the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) nations like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates? Let's try and understand the context which has brought about this bilateral security arrangement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

The oil-rich Gulf Arab nations have long relied on the West for their security. But, on September 9, 2025, when Israel launched an airstrike on a residential compound in Doha, Qatar, the U.S. and its western allies did nothing to defend the Qataris. It’s notable that this attack occurred on a U.S. ally which hosts the largest American military base in the region. The fact that the United States did nothing to stop this Israeli aggression has shaken the confidence of the G.C.C. nations in the willingness of the United States to defend them, particularly from any Israeli attacks. Israel has attacked almost every country in the Middle East, including Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen in the last 12 months. Israel has gone rogue. It is carrying out a genocide in Gaza with impunity. It is being aided and abetted by the West in its crimes against humanity. It appears to have the license from the United States to do so.

Given these realities, who can the Gulf Arabs turn to for security? Which Muslim nation has Saudi Arabia had the closest military ties with for decades? Which country with nuclear weapons is most likely to deter attacks on the Saudis from nuclear-armed adversaries like Israel? Who else but nuclear-armed Pakistan!

Oval Office Photo: L to R: VP JD Vance, President Trump, PM Sharif, FM Munir & Sec of State Rubio

There has been no official US reaction to the Pakistani-Saudi Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement so far. However, judging from the recent cordial meeting of the Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir with President Trump at the White House, it appears that Team Trump does not object to it.

In recent years, Pakistan has emerged as a credible military power in terms of both conventional and nuclear capabilities. The Pakistani military's strong performance was recognized in May this year as it responded to what India called its "Operation Sindoor". The country has developed a range of short and medium-range missiles capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. Its longest range missile Shaheen 3 can hit deep inside India and Israel. Last year, the Biden administration imposed sanctions against Pakistan after accusing it of developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US mainland.

In January this year at an Islamabad event, Ambassador Munir Akram articulated potential rationales for developing a missile of increased range, according to the US Congressional Research Service. A missile exceeding the Shaheen-III range may be necessary to reach Indian missiles deployed on bases in the Indian Ocean located "well beyond" the Shaheen-III range, he said, adding that India has sought to establish access to such bases. Akram also posited that Pakistan may need to develop an indigenous space launch vehicle or an anti-satellite weapon; ballistic missile programs can aid the development of such platforms.

Biden Administration Accused Pakistan of Developing Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles

Yes, Pakistan does have a weak economy. But that is primarily because of significant underinvestment over decades. That’s where the oil-rich Gulf Arab nations can help. They have been investing trillions of dollars in the West in the hope of getting security from them. They have huge sovereign investment funds which can invest in Pakistan. Even if they invest a fraction of what they have invested in the U.S., the positive effects on Pakistan’s economy will be immense.

As to Pakistan’s political instability, it can be managed by a hybrid system of government where the politicians and the generals reach an understanding to benefit both as well as the country. It will also serve Saudi interests to use its considerable influence in Pakistan to bring political and economic stability to the country.

Given today's geopolitical realities, Pakistan is the best choice for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations to deter aggression from Israel and other aggressors in the region. Gulf Arab nations have generally welcomed the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, viewing it as a move that strengthens regional security amid concerns about US commitments. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has also welcomed it, describing it as "a beginning for a comprehensive regional security system". In a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, he said: “Iran welcomes the defensive pact between the two brotherly Muslim countries, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, as a beginning for a comprehensive regional security system with the cooperation of the Muslim states of West Asia in the political security and defense domains”.

Friday, August 2, 2024

Growing Demand For Pakistani Workers in Gulf Arab Kingdoms

Millions of Pakistani workers have been participating in the development of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and other Gulf nations over many decades. They have been doing so in spite of the almost complete absence of basic human rights and harsh working conditions. A recent Pakistani government report appears to negate their enormous contribution to the Arab Gulf region. Instead of highlighting their positive role and defending their rights, the report by the secretary of Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and Human Resource Development reinforces the bigoted negative stereotypes of overseas Pakistanis.

Emigration of Pakistani Workers. Source: Pakistan Bureau of Emigration

This report and other past unfounded negative statements seem to indicate that Pakistani officials are the worst enemies of their own people. An example of such reckless behavior of Pakistani officials came in 2020 when a Pakistani minister claimed without evidence or investigation that most Pakistani pilots had fake pilot licenses. While the statement was later proved to be wrong, it caused enormous damage to the PIA, Pakistani flag carrier, when its flights were banned in Europe and North America.

The claim by Pakistan's labor secretary about the Gulf nations not wanting Pakistani workers is contradicted by the government's own data showing that 426,951 Pakistanis were hired by Saudi employers in 2023-24. During the same period, another 230,000 Pakistanis were offered jobs in the UAE and 60,000 Pakistanis found employment in Qatar.

Year-wise, the number of Pakistanis hired by Saudi employers declined from 514,725 in 2022 to 426,951 in 2023. But those recruited in UAE increased from 128,477 in 2022 to 229,894 in 2023, according to the Bureau of Emigration. Overall, in 2022, 832,339 Pakistanis went to work abroad, which increased to 862,625 in 2023, according to the Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment.

These Pakistani workers in the Gulf region are also making a huge contribution to Pakistan's economy by sending home large remittances. Pakistanis in the UAE remitted $3.7 billion during the July-March 2024 fiscal year. Saudi led with $5.1 billion, followed by the UK ($3.2 billion), the US ($2.5 billion), other GCC countries ($2.3 billion), EU ($2.6 billion), Australia ($0.5 billion) and other countries ($1.3 billion).

Pakistan's weak economy is not creating enough jobs for the nation's growing working age population. Overseas employment helps relieve the pressure. There are over 10 million Pakistanis working overseas and growing. To ensure that this avenue of employment remains open, the Pakistani leaders should be promoting, or at least not denigrating, Pakistanis working overseas.

The story of Pakistanis' pivotal role in the development of UAE is illustrated by two high-profile examples: Emirates Airline and Burj Khalifa.

Emirates Airlines flights numbers are preceded by EK which harkens back to the carrier's first flight from Emirates to Karachi. Flight EK600 was flown by Captain Fazl Ghani Mian on 25 October 1985. PIA provided technical and management assistance to the new carrier and leased a new Boeing 737—300 and an Airbus A300B4-200.

Burj Khalifa, the world's tallest building, was designed using software developed by Ashraf Habibullah, a fellow NED University alumnus who founded Computer Structures Inc of Berkeley, California. The Dubai landmark was built by thousands of construction workers from Pakistan.

Over a Million Pakistani University Students Enrolled in STEM Fields

2021: A Banner Year For Tech Startups in Pakistan

Pakistani-Americans in Academia

Top One Percent: Are Hindus the New Jews in America?

Growing Share of Working Age Population in Pakistan

Pakistan Scientific Output is World's Fastest Growing

India's Chandrayaan 3 Success: Can Pakistanis Explore Space?

Digital Pakistan 2022

Pakistan's Large and Growing Civil Nuclear Program

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Wednesday, May 24, 2023

G20 Kashmir Meeting: Modi's PR Ploy Backfires!

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's campaign to show normalcy in the Indian occupied territory of Jammu and Kashmir has backfired. Three member countries of the G20 boycotted the tourism event in Srinagar. The rest of them sent local embassy staff to attend. The event also drew negative worldwide media coverage of the brutality of India's "settler colonialism" in the disputed territory. It elicited strong condemnation from the United Nations. Prior to the event, India’s tourism secretary, Arvind Singh had promised that the meeting will not only “showcase (Kashmir’s) potential for tourism” but also “signal globally the restoration of stability and normalcy in the region.” The Modi government failed to achieve both of these objectives.

G20 Meeting in Indian Military Occupied Kashmir

Meeting Boycott:

China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey did not attend the G20 event in Srinagar. Rest of the G20 members sent diplomats posted in New Delhi to attend it. It's not unusual for foreign diplomats to visit disputed territories such as Jammu and Kashmir. Last year, Donald Blome, US Ambassador to Pakistan, visited what he called "Azad Jammu and Kashmir". The G20 Tourism Working Group meeting in Kashmir drew condemnation from China and the United Nations.

“China firmly opposes holding any form of G20 meetings on disputed territory. We will not attend such meetings,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin at a press briefing on May 19 in Beijing.

Fernand de Varennes, U.N. special rapporteur on minority issues, criticized the meeting, saying that by hosting the session in Kashmir, “India is seeking to normalize what some have described as a military occupation by instrumentalizing a G20 meeting and portray an international 'seal of approval’.”

The UN representative warned the G20 of “unwittingly providing a veneer of support to a facade of normalcy at a time when massive human rights violations, illegal and arbitrary arrests, political persecutions, restrictions and even suppression of free media and human rights defenders continue to escalate.”

Heavy Indian Security Presence at Dal Lake For G20 in Kashmir. Source: Washington Post

International Media Coverage:

The global media coverage of the G20 meeting in Kashmir has largely been negative. It has highlighted the brutal occupation of the region by the Indian military.

A piece in The Conversation accused India of "using the G20 summit to further its settler-colonial ambitions in Kashmir". It pointed out that the "route to Gulmarg (G20 event location) is lined with barbed wire. Armed soldiers keep watch from fortified bunkers". The Conversation piece offers the following advice to anyone visiting Indian Occupied Kashmir:

"Those visiting (Indian Occupied) Kashmir must first learn about the decolonial history of the region, one that honors Kashmiri calls for self-determination and sovereignty. They must follow the principle of do no harm by not visiting tourist sites or using tour operators run by Indian authorities. They should support local Kashmiri-run businesses as much as possible. There is no simple resolution for tourism on occupied lands. Tourism amid settler-colonialism manifests in exploitation, dispossession, commodification and other injustices and inequities. The goal of ethical travel is not immediate perfection or self-exoneration. It is an invitation to think about our own actions and complicity".

A story in "The Guardian" noted that the G20 Kashmir meeting "required a large show of security at Srinagar international airport". It added: "India’s presidency of the G20 group of leading nations has become mired in controversy after China and Saudi Arabia boycotted a meeting staged in Kashmir, the first such gathering since India unilaterally brought Kashmir under direct control in August 2019".

Voice of America reported that the "security moved into the background to give a sense of normalcy amid reports of mass detentions" as the event drew closer.

Modi's Blunders:

Prime Minister Modi's PR campaign has clearly backfired. His government's actions have failed to project any sense of normalcy in the disputed region. In fact, Mr. Modi's blunders have helped internationalize the issue of Kashmir on the world stage. They have drawn China further into the Kashmir dispute, particularly in the Ladakh region where the Chinese troops have taken large chunks of what India claims as its territory.

In an Op Ed for the Deccan Herald, Indian Journalist Bharat Bhushan has accused Modi government of "overplaying its hand in organizing a G20 event in Srinagar". He has summed up the fallout from the G20 Kashmir Meeting failure as follows:

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming State visit to the United States makes this rebuff on J&K by the international community, especially significant. What might have been ignored by India and perhaps down-played, at least publicly by the US, in the build-up to the Modi-Biden summit, will now become an additional irritant in the bilateral relationship. Did the Modi government bait fate by overplaying its hand in organizing a G20 event in Srinagar?"

Here's India's JNU Professor speaking about illegal Indian occupation of Kashmir, Manipur and Nagaland:

https://youtu.be/KWp1E8xrY5E

Monday, January 23, 2023

Pakistan Is Not Collapsing!

Pakistan is currently facing major economic and political crises. These are partly of its own making but mostly the result of external shocks in terms of commodity prices that have exacerbated the nation's balance of payments. The Pakistani military's unnecessary meddling in politics and resulting political instability have not helped either. The unprecedented floods in the country have further added to the severity of the challenges.

US and China Compete For Influence in Pakistan. Source: Wall Street Journal

Pakistan's multidimensional crisis has spurred many in India and elsewhere to predict the Pakistani state's imminent collapse. Some disgruntled Pakistanis have also jumped on the doomsayers' bandwagon. What is often ignored in such oft-repeated dire predictions is Pakistan's size and its geopolitical importance in the world. Indian analyst Amit Bhandari has summarized it well in a recent Hindustan Times Op-ed: "Despite the severity of the challenges, Pakistan is unlikely to collapse — largely because of its geostrategic importance. A bailout by the IMF or friendly countries will happen". Let me expand on Bhandari's comments:

1. The collapse of a large country like Pakistan will be very destabilizing for the South Asia region and the world. Pakistan is the world's 5th most populous country. It has a large military armed with nuclear weapons.

2. Pakistan's location is geopolitically very important. It borders Afghanistan, China, India, Iran and the Indian Ocean. It has a coastline next to the sea lanes that transport the bulk of the world's oil. It is connected to multiple strategically important regions of the world: Central Asia, Middle East, South Asia and West Asia.

3. China, the United States and Gulf Arabs have expressed a strong interest in maintaining Pakistan's stability. All of them are offering assistance to Pakistan. China will continue to support Pakistan as it tries to stabilize its financial situation, state media quoted President Xi Jinping as saying, according to Reuters. Prince Mohammad Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia has offered to increase loans and investments of over $10 billion to Pakistan, according to Bloomberg. American officials have said they support the IMF assistance to Pakistan, according to Dawn newspaper.

4. Pakistan has received pledges of $10 billion worth of loans and grants to rebuild after devastating floods last year, according to Bloomberg News. The amount pledged exceeds the $8 billion that Pakistan sought at the United Nations Donors Conference in Geneva, Switzerland.

Debt to GDP Ratios. India 91%, Pakistan 87%. Source: Visual Capitalist

Pakistanis are no strangers to forecasts of their country's collapse. There have been many such forecasts over the last 75 years, starting with its birth. Western and Indian forecasts of Pakistan's collapse are not new. Lord Mountbatten, the British Viceroy of India who oversaw the partition agreed with the assessment of Pakistan made by India's leaders when he described Pakistan as a "Nissen hut" or a "temporary tent" in a conversation with Jawarhar Lal Nehru.

Here's the exact quote from Mountbatten: "administratively it [wa]s the difference between putting up a permanent building, a nissen hut or a tent. As far as Pakistan is concerned we are putting up a tent. We can do no more." The Brits and the Hindu leadership of India both fully expected Pakistan to fold soon after partition.

1999 DoD Forecast: Pakistan Disappears by 2015

A 1999 US Defense Department study titled "Asia 2025" forecast Pakistan's collapse by 2015. It further said that Pakistan would become part of a "South Asian Superstate" controlled by India as a "regional hegemon". Two of the study's contributors were "South Asia experts" of Indian origin. Much of the South Asia section of this study appears to be wishful thinking rather than serious analysis. Resilient Pakistan has defied this and many other similar forecasts of its demise since its birth.

Goldman Sachs Forecast Over Next 50 Years

Goldman Sachs analysts Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas project Pakistan's economy to grow to become the world's sixth largest by 2075. In a research paper titled "The Path to 2075", the authors forecast Pakistan's GDP to rise to $12.7 trillion with per capita income of $27,100. India’s GDP in 2075 is projected at $52.5 trillion and per capita GDP at $31,300. Bangladesh is projected to be a $6.3 trillion economy with per capita income of $31,000. By 2075, China will be the top global economy, followed by India 2nd, US 3rd, Indonesia 4th, Nigeria 5th and Pakistan 6th. The forecast is based primarily on changes in the size of working age populations over the next 50 years.

OpenAI's ChatGPT on Pakistan's Possible Collapse

There's no question that Pakistan is in the midst of very serious political and economic crises. The nation is deeply divided politically. The country's economic performance is dismal. It is of paramount importance for Pakistanis to come together to deal honestly with their internal political and economic differences. Doing so will help Pakistan's large young population realize their full potential to join the ranks of the world's top ten economies.

Here's a Wall Street Journal video on US-China Competition in Pakistan:

https://youtu.be/wvw-85CC1t4

Digital Pakistan 2022: Broadband Penetration 90% Among 15+ Age Group

Resilient Pakistan Defies Doomsayers

US and China Compete For Influence in Pakistan

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni: Pakistani Social Network

Sunday, May 1, 2022

European Union: Fastest Growing Source of Remittances to Pakistan

Remittances from the European Union (EU) to Pakistan soared 49.7% in FY 21 and 28.3% in FY22, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. With $2.5 billion remittances in the first 9 months (July-March) of the current fiscal year, the EU ($2.5 billion) has now surpassed North America ($2.2 billion) to become the third largest source of inflows to Pakistan after the Middle East and the United Kingdom. Remittances from the US have grown 21%, second fastest after the EU (28.3%) in the first 9 months of the current fiscal year.

Country-wise Remittance Inflows in Pakistan. Source: State Bank of Pakistan

Pakistanis in European Union:

The population of Pakistan-born migrants to European Union countries has been growing in recent years. With over 120,000 Pakistani migrants, Italy is the most popular destination for Pakistanis in the EU.

Italy is followed by Germany with 75,495 Pakistani migrants. Then comes Spain with 61,953 migrants, France 21,900 (2017), Sweden 11,674, Denmark 10,669, Ireland 7,351 (2016), Belgium 5,927, Portugal 5,310, Norway 5,157, Netherlands 4,723 and Austria 4,112. There are smaller populations of Pakistanis in several other European countries.

Pakistan-born Migrants in European Union. Source: OECD

With $5.74 billion in the first 9 months of current fiscal year FY22, Saudi Arabia remains the top source of remittances to Pakistan, followed by $4.28 billion from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). However, the Saudi remittances are essentially flat while those from the UAE have declined 5.3% in this period. Pakistani diaspora is sending home over $30 billion a year, about 10% of the country's GDP. It is badly needed foreign exchange to balance Pakistan's external accounts.

Pakistanis in Italy. Source: Italian Government

Pakistan's Worldwide Diaspora:

Over 10 million Pakistanis are currently working/living overseas, according to the Bureau of Emigration. Before the COVID19 pandemic hit in 2020, more than 600,000 Pakistanis left the country to work overseas in 2019. The average yearly outflow of Pakistani workers to OECD countries (mainly UK and US) and the Middle East has been over half a million in the last decade.

Pakistan’s economy created 5.5 million domestic jobs during the past three years –on an average 1.84 million jobs a year, which is far higher than yearly average of creation of new jobs during the 2008-18 decade, according to the Labor Force Survey (LFS) published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

Worker Remittances as Percentage of Pakistan GDP. Source: World Bank

Pakistan ranks 6th among the top worker remittance recipient countries in the world. India and China rank first and second, followed by Mexico 3rd, the Philippines 4th, Egypt 5th and Pakistan 6th.

Pakistan Demographics

Pakistan's Demographic Dividend:

About two million Pakistanis are entering the workforce every year. The share of the working age population in Pakistan is increasing while the birth rate is declining. This phenomenon, known as demographic dividend, is coinciding with declines in working age populations in developed countries. It is creating an opportunity for over half a million Pakistani workers to migrate and work overseas, and send home record remittances. These overseas Pakistanis are now sending home over $30 billion a year, about 10% of the country's GDP. It is badly needed foreign exchange to balance Pakistan's external accounts.

Projected Population Decline in Emerging Economies. Source: Nikkei Asia

How "Illiterate" Are Pakistan's "Illiterate" Cell Phone Users?

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Thursday, October 7, 2021

Is CPEC Development Focus Shifting From Gwadar to Karachi?

China has agreed to invest $3.5 billion in Karachi, according to Pakistani and Chinese officials. In a separate announcement earlier, Saudi Arabia said it is moving its planned $10 billion petrochemical complex from Gwadar to Karachi. These announcements have triggered speculation that the focus of development of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is moving from Gwadar to Karachi.

Karachi Port, Pakistan

The Karachi project dubbed "Karachi Coastal Comprehensive Development Zone project" or KCCDZ includes additional new berths to Karachi port, development of a new fisheries port and a 640-hectare special economic zone near the port. The project also envisages building a harbor bridge connecting the port with the nearby Manora islands, according to Nikkei Asia.

Gwadar Port City

Saudi decision to shift the $10 billion petrochemical plant from Gwadar to Karachi was triggered by the fact that there is no oil pipeline nor a rail line planned to support it at Gwadar. Karachi already has well-developed roads, rails, telecommunications and pipeline infrastructure for connectivity with the rest of the country.

Map of Submarine Cable Connections to Karachi, Pakistan. Source: TeleGeography

There are 10 submarine cables currently connecting or planned to connect Pakistan with the world: TransWorld1, Africa1 (2023), 2Africa (2023), AAE1, PEACE, SeaMeWe3, SeaMeWe4, SeaMeWe5, SeaMeWe6 (2025) and IMEWE. PEACE cable has two landing stations in Pakistan: Karachi and Gwadar. SeaMeWe stands for Southeast Asia Middle East Western Europe, while IMEWE is India Middle East Western Europe and AAE1 Asia Africa Europe 1. PEACE cable is the latest. It is a privately owned submarine cable that originates in Karachi, Pakistan and runs underwater all the way to Marseilles, France via multiple points in the continent of Africa.

Gwadar East Bay Expressway, Pakistan

China already has a lot invested in Gwadar. Krzysztof Iwanek, head of the Asia Research Center at Warsaw's War Studies University, told Nikkei that the challenges of developing a major port in an underdeveloped area like Gwadar must have been factored in by China from the outset. "[I]t may be assumed that Chinese involvement in Gwadar may be at least partially strategic. Karachi, in turn, is Pakistan's most important port, and, hence, Chinese involvement there may be of purely economic nature," Iwanek said.

My own view is that Gwadar remains very important to China for strategic reasons. Gwadar sits very close to the strategic Strait of Hormuz that is used by tankers carrying the bulk of China's and the world's energy imports. Karachi is the fastest and most economical route to making CPEC operational but it does not diminish the long-term importance of Gwadar for China.