Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Showing posts with label Air Force. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Can Pakistan's JF-17 Become Developing World's Most Widely Deployed Fighter Jet?

Worldwide demand for the JF-17 fighter jet, jointly developed by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (CAIG), is surging. It is attracting buyers in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. At just $40 million a piece, it is a combat-proven flying machine with no western political strings attached. It has enormous potential as the lowest-cost 4.5 generation fighter jet featuring AESA radar, enhanced electronics, and superior weapons systems.

Pakistan PFX Concept Fighter. Source: Raksha Anirveda

In addition to the Pakistan Air Force, it is currently deployed by the air forces of Azerbaijan, Myanmar and Nigeria. Multi-billion dollar orders are in the pipeline from several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Libya and Sudan. Bangladesh is reportedly negotiating to purchase JF-17s in the near future. These orders are not just one-time purchases; they include service and training contracts, as well as spare parts and future upgrades. The US-based business publication Bloomberg recently reported: "After Pakistan said it used the jets to great effect in its brief conflict with India last year, at least five countries have expressed interest in buying them. That sudden demand may put the country’s defense industry in a crunch". So the question now is: Can Pakistan deliver?

Currently, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) has the capacity to manufacture up to 20 JF-17s per year, sufficient to fill the orders from the Pakistan Air Force. It uses a Pakistani airframe, Chinese-made KLJ-7A AESA radar and Russian Klimov RD-93 turbofan engine. Additional capacity is being added at PAC to meet rapidly growing demand. A Chinese aviation expert told China's Global Times that this could be a "sweet problem" for Pakistan, as backed by strong order demand, the country's aviation industry is expected to develop rapidly, and potential capacity constraints are ultimately not a true concern given China's support for Pakistan in manufacturing this type of fighter jet.

The JF-17 is opening doors for Pakistan’s defense industry. The country is emerging as a major arms supplier to developing countries in Asia and Africa. Talks underway with at least 13 countries for JF-17 jets, drones and weapons, with several negotiations at an advanced stage.

Azerbaijan, Myanmar, Nigeria and Sudan have all made significant arms purchases from Pakistan in recent years. Azerbaijan expanded its order for JF-17 Thunder Block III multi-role fighter jets from Pakistan from 16 to 40 aircraft. The recent order extends a 2024 contract worth $1.6 billion to modernize Baku’s airborne combat fleet to $4.6 billion. This makes Azerbaijan the largest export customer of the Pakistan-made warplane. Bangladesh is negotiating purchase of up to 32 JF-17 Thunder Block III aircraft from Pakistan.

In the Middle East Pakistan has orders to supply JF-17s to Libya and Saudi Arabia. In a deal with Libya, Pakistan will sell over two dozen JF-17 fighter jets and 12 Super Mushak trainer aircraft used for basic pilot training. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are in negotiations to convert about $2bn of Saudi loans into a deal to buy JF-17 fighter jets, according to Reuters.

In Africa, Pakistan has recently signed a $1.5 billion contract to supply combat drones and military trainer aircraft to Sudan. The order includes 150 armored vehicles, 220 drones and 10 K-8 Karakorum trainer/light attack aircraft. Earlier in 2021, Pakistan sold three JF-17 Thunder fighter jets and ten Super Mushshak trainer aircraft to Nigeria in a deal worth nearly $200 million. From 2018 to 2021, Pakistan sold 11 JF-17 Thunder Block I aircraft to Myanmar.

Air forces of about a dozen developing nations are buying and deploying Pakistani made aircrafts. The reasons for their choice of combat-tested Pakistan manufactured airplanes include advanced BVR (beyond visual range) features, affordability and ease of acquisition, maintenance and training.

Pakistan started developing defense hardware for import substitution to reduce external dependence and to save hard currency. Now the country's defense industry is coming of age to lead the way to high value-added manufactured exports.

Pakistan has unveiled its PFX (Pakistan Fighter Experimental) program as a significant upgrade to its JF-17 joint program with China. The new upgrade will have a number of stealth features ranging from the use of radar-absorbing composite materials and diverterless supersonic inlets (DSI) to internal weapons bay (IWB) which will significantly reduce the aircraft's radar signature. It is targeted for completion by the end of this decade. In addition, the PFX's twin-engine design will improve maneuverability and allow greater payload capacity.

The program is part of Pakistan's broader strategy to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and strengthen the domestic defense industry. Currently, 58% of JF-17 components are manufactured locally by PAC, but Pakistan aims to increase this share to achieve full production autonomy for the PFX. It is not just about the PAF modernization but also about positioning Pakistan as an important player in the global military aviation market.

The PFX is an evolution of a plan that Pakistan announced in 2017 to develop and produce 5th generation fighter planes. It is part of Pakistan Air Force's highly ambitious Project Azm that includes building Kamra Aviation City dedicated to education, research and development and manufacturing of advanced fighter jets, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and weapon systems.

The PAF has already started replacing its aging fleet with the induction of the Chinese J10C fighter jets which are considered 4.5 Gen. The J10-C has stealth features like diverterless supersonic inlets (DSI). Its BVR capability is supported by PL-15 missiles, with an engagement range of up to 200 kilometers, facilitating long-range target engagements.

The PAF has also begun the process of acquiring 5th generation Chinese J35 fighter jets. The delivery of 40 J35 fighters to Pakistan is expected within two years, potentially altering regional dynamics, particularly concerning India.

Tuesday, December 30, 2025

Happy New Year 2026: Pakistan's Year 2025 in Review

As we enter the year 2026, it is time to review the year 2025 and wish you all Happy New Year 2026! May it bring peace, prosperity and happiness to all!!

The year 2025 saw Pakistan defeat a brazen Indian attack on its soil, while reviving its economy and fighting increasing terror. Pakistan's successful response to multiple serious challenges in 2025 helped significantly raise its geopolitical profile with improved ties with the United States and stronger relations with its friends in China, Russia and the Middle East. Pakistan’s GDP crossed the $400 billion mark in 2025. The year ended with Pakistani currency stable and the KSE-100, the key Pakistani stock market index, achieving new record highs with over 50% annual return in US dollar terms for investors. Privatization efforts gained steam with the sale of the PIA, the debt-ridden money-losing state-owned national airline, to private Pakistani investors. The political issues between the rulers and the opposition remained unresolved while PTI chief Imran Khan and his wife were sentenced to long jail terms. Taliban and Baloch terrorist groups stepped up their attacks on both civilian and military targets in the country. Pakistan has accused the Afghan Taliban of harboring these terrorist groups with India's backing.

Indian Aggression in May 2025:

On May 7, 2025, the Indian military launched an unprovoked attack on civilian targets in Pakistan after alleging without evidence that the terrorist attack in Pahalgam in the Indian Occupied Kashmir was carried out by groups based in Pakistan. The Indian attack was met with a robust Pakistani response in which multiple Indian fighter jets, including recently acquired Rafales, were shot down, leading to the grounding of the entire Indian Air Force for 48 hours. The fighting was halted within 4 days after mediation by the US President Donald J. Trump.

India's diplomatic efforts to isolate Pakistan by attempting to persuade the international community that Pakistan bore responsibility for Pahalgam failed miserably as the world demanded evidence which New Delhi could not produce. Azerbaijan, China and Turkey stood firmly with Pakistan, while India stood alone. Neither the US nor Russia came to India’s support.

High Optimism in Pakistan for 2026. Source: Gallup International

Pakistan's Geopolitical Gains:

Pakistan's success in what India dubbed Operation Sindoor was widely recognized by independent analysts and international media. President Trump talked about India's losses and a US government report referred to Pakistan's military successes against India.

Pakistan’s arm sales soared as the world learnt how the Pakistani military successfully used its indigenous defense gear, including drones and rockets, in the May conflict with India.

The Chinese celebrated the combat performance of their J-10C fighter jets and PL-15 air-to-air missiles used by the Pakistan Air Force against Indian military jets. Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defense pact with Pakistan after the Israeli Air Force struck in Doha, Qatar and the US government did nothing to help the country that hosts the largest US military base in the region.

Pakistan GDP FY 2008 to FY 2025. Source: PBS and AKD

Pakistan's Economic Revival:

Pakistan's economy stabilized with its currency stability and investor confidence. Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP ) reached $411 billion in June, 2025, rising 6.2% in April-June quarter. It slowed to 3.7% as floods hit parts of the country in the July-September quarter. The key stock index KSE-100 closed at record highs with 52% annual gain in US dollar terms. Large scale manufacturing grew with 8.3% in Oct 2025, driven by automobiles, construction, textiles, and petroleum. About 36,000 new retail trading accounts were opened in the September quarter, compared to 23,600 new registrations just three months ago, according to Topline Securities, a brokerage house in Pakistan. Broad and deep participation in capital markets is essential for economic growth and wealth distribution in any country.

Pakistan Shares Index Performance in 2025. Source: PSX

Pakistani Rupee Performed Better Than Indian/Sri Lankan Currencies in 2025

Pakistan's arms exports soared with multi-billion dollar orders for its fighter jets, trainer aircraft and drones. Azerbaijan, Sudan, Libya and Turkey purchased Pakistan-made defense equipment.

The discovery of rare earth metals, particularly large deposits of antimony, a critical mineral, boosted Pakistan's potential in world trade of critical metals. Antimony's main uses are in flame retardants (as antimony trioxide in plastics, textiles), strengthening alloys (especially with lead for batteries, ammunition, bearings, cable sheathing, pewter), and in semiconductors (diodes, infrared detectors). It's crucial for military tech (night vision, explosives), improves battery performance, and is used in glass (clarifying agent) and ceramics, highlighting its role in critical defense and energy technologies. . The price of antimony trioxide has shot up to around $40,000 per ton — off its peak of more than $60,000 as some users seek alternatives but still substantially higher than $26,000 in September 2024 — as fears about China’s control of the supply chains for metals including antimony have sparked a global race to secure supplies.

Pakistan received commitments of billions of dollars in investments in its large copper and gold deposits. Copper's importance has dramatically increased with growth in electric vehicles, data centers and global power demand.

Pakistan Space Program:

In October 2025, China launched HS-1 satellite for Pakistan, its first hyper-spectral satellite which is equipped with advanced hyper-spectral imaging sensors capable of capturing data across hundreds of narrow spectral bands. The satellite lifted off from China’s Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on a Kinetica-1 rocket. It is expected to boost Pakistan's national capacities in areas such as precision agriculture, environmental monitoring, urban planning, and disaster management. Its high-resolution data will support improved resource management and strengthen Pakistan’s resilience to climate-related challenges.

In addition to the HS-1 satellite, Pakistan has signed a $406 million deal with China’s PIESAT for a constellation of over 20 imaging and communication satellites, a move that signals a profound shift in its strategic posture, according to defense site Quwa. The deal includes a full transfer-of-technology (ToT) for in-country satellite manufacturing. It is poised to provide the Pakistani military with a sovereign, persistent imaging intelligence (IMINT) capability.

Pakistan's First AI Data Center:

Data Vault and Telenor Pakistan launched the nation's first dedicated AI data center in Karachi. It is designed to support startups, researchers, and government agencies with high-performance computing and GPU-as-a-service offerings. It is equipped with more than 3,000 Nvidia's highest performance H100 and H200 GPUs for which the Trump Administration issued export licenses. These GPUs cost from $40,000 to $60,000 each, making the Nvidia chips the biggest chunk of the investment made in this AI data center. Other data centers in Pakistan also support AI workloads but this new data center in Karachi is specially designed for AI. It puts the country on a short list of only a handful of nations with locally hosted AI data centers. Pakistanis rank among the world's top five users of Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools, securing the fourth spot among 21 nations surveyed by the Schwartz Reisman Institute.

Pakistan's Challenges in 2026:

Sustained economic recovery is the key challenge for Pakistan in 2026 and beyond. It is a difficult challenge amid unsettled issues with India and unresolved domestic political problems at home. Opposition leader Imran Khan and his wife have been sentenced to long jail terms by Pakistani courts. This situation, if left unresolved, is likely to continue to be a source of instability and poor economic performance. The other challenge is rising incidents of terror in the country with a 70% increase in terror attacks in 2025. Brute force alone will not resolve these issues. There's a need for talks to reach a political settlement with the Afghan Taliban who are harboring groups like the TTP and BLA that launch cross-border attacks in Pakistan.