Monday, October 29, 2018

Standard Chartered Bank: Pakistan Among Most Upwardly Mobile Emerging Nations

Pakistan is among the most upwardly mobile nations in the world, according to a new Standard Chartered Bank study titled "Climbing the Prosperity Ladder".

The Standard Chartered study looks into social mobility, financial proficiency and digital savviness among 11,000 emerging affluent consumers in China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Singapore, South Korea and the UAE. 34% of Pakistani respondents said their incomes have increased by more than 50% over the last 5 years while 44% said they have seen 10% or more income growth in the last year.

Socially Mobile Income Growth. Source: Standard Chartered Bank

China, India and Pakistan:

Standard Chartered study talks about the "fast-growing economies of China, India and Pakistan are providing abundant opportunities for scaling the social pyramid".  Here's an excerpt of the Standard Chartered report:

The fast-growing economies of China, India and Pakistan are providing abundant opportunities for scaling the social pyramid. Leading the way, in both China and India 67% of the emerging affluent are experiencing positive social mobility, while Pakistan is not far behind with 64%. Of the emerging affluent in these countries, India and Pakistan both have more than one in 10 (11%) that are experiencing supercharged social mobility, versus 7% in China. Strong earnings progression is fueling impressive rates of social mobility in all three countries. Many of the socially mobile have benefitted from a salary increase of 50% or more in the last five years – 34% in Pakistan, followed by 30% in India and 26% in China. This gap could widen, with India and Pakistan more optimistic about their future salaries than their Chinese counterparts. Almost half of the socially mobile in Pakistan (48%) and India (46%) predict another earnings increase of 50% or more in the next five years, whereas less than three in 10 (29%) expect the same in China. While the emerging affluent in China are more cautious about salary growth than their counterparts in fast-growing Pakistan and India, workplace remuneration is just one side of the social mobility equation. Education has been considered crucial to improving social standing in China for a long time, but the generational shift towards university access among the socially mobile is larger than any other market: more than nine in 10 have attended university (91%), compared to 34% of their fathers and 29% of their mothers.

Education Mobility:

Upwardly mobile Pakistanis have seen a significant increase in education levels. 89% of them have college degrees compared to 66% of fathers and 49% of mothers who did.

Socially Mobile Education Levels. Source: Standard Chartered Bank 

Gender Balance:

In terms of gender parity, 51% of socially supercharged in Pakistan are men and 49% are women.

Socially Mobile Gender Differences. Source: Standard Chartered

Intergenerational Mobility:

Are they better off than their parents? The answer is a resounding Yes for 79% of Pakistanis who feel better off than their parents.

Inter-generational Mobility. Source: Standard Chartered
Saving For Education:

Upwardly mobile Pakistanis see the value of education for their children. 18% of them say saving for their children's education is a top priority.

Saving For Education. Source: Standard Chartered

Summary:


Standard Chartered Bank study finds that Pakistan is among the most upwardly mobile nations in terms of income and education. 79% of Pakistanis feel they are better off than their parents.  34% of socially mobile Pakistani respondents say their incomes have increased by more than 50% over the last 5 years while 44% say they have seen 10% or more income growth in the last year. 89% of them have college degrees compared to 66% of fathers and 49% of mothers who did.

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Sunday, October 28, 2018

Pakistani Universities Listed Among Asia's Top 500 Jump From 16 to 23 in One Year

British ranking agency Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) has ranked 23 Pakistani universities among the top 500 Asian universities for 2019, up from 16 in 2018.  Other South Asian universities figuring in the QS top universities report are 75 from India, 6 from Bangladesh and 4 from Sri Lanka.

Top 500 Asian Universities. Source: QS University Rankings 2019
South Asia Ranking:

In terms of the number of universities ranking in Asia's top 500, Pakistan with its 23 universities ranks second in South Asia and 7th among 17 Asian nations topped by China with 112, Japan 89, India 75, South Korea 57, Taiwan 36, Malaysia 26, Pakistan 23, Indonesia 22, Thailand 19, Philippines 8, Hong Kong 7, Vietnam 7, Bangladesh 6, Sri Lanka 4, Singapore 3, Macao 2 and Brunei 2.

National University of Singapore ranked number one in Asia followed by University of Hong Kong and Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. Tsinghua University and Peking University—both from China—round off the top five list in Asia.

Pakistani Universities Ranked Among QS Asia Top 500. Source: QS Top Universities 2019

Pakistan's Top Universities: 

National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST) is the top ranked university in Pakistan in QS Asia University Rankings 2019. NUST has moved up from 91st to 87th position. The second ranked university in Pakistan is Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS) at 95th position in the Asian ranking. These are the only two Pakistani universities ranked among the top 100 in the QS Asia University Rankings 2019. By contrast, India has 8 universities ranked among Asia's top 100.  My alma mater NED University of Engineering and Technology is ranked 15th among Pakistan's 23 universities included in Asia's top 500 for 2019.

Top 15 Asian Nations Publishing Research. Source: SCIMAGO

Pakistan has emerged as the country with the highest percentage of Highly Cited Papers compared with the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) in the last 10 years, according to Thomson Reuters. Pakistan has doe so despite the fact that its "R&D environment faced substantial economic challenges".

Source: Thomson Reuters
Pakistani Researchers Citations: 

In a report titled "Pakistan: Another BRIC in the Wall", author Lulian Herciu says that Pakistan’s scientific productivity has quadrupled, from approximately 2,000 articles per year in 2006 to more than 9,000 articles in 2015. During this time, the number of Highly Cited Papers featuring Pakistan-based authors increased tenfold, from 9 articles in 2006 to 98 in 2015.

Source: Thomson Reuters
The author asserts that his report provides comparisons between Pakistan and BRIC nations taking a look at productivity and leveraging contextual indicators. His analysis points to the fact that Pakistan can be benchmarked with emerging and dynamic countries such as those in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) group.

The Thomson Reuters report has found that, in 2012, "Pakistan's normalized Citation Impact was higher than that of all of the BRIC nations".

CERN Membership:

In 2014, Pakistan became the first Asian country and only the third in the world after Turkey and Serbia to be honored with CERN's associate membership. The status of associate member is a step before full membership. As an associate member, Pakistan  is entitled to attend open and restricted sessions of the organization.

College and University Enrollment:

There are over 3 million students enrolled in grades 13 through 16 in Pakistan's 1,086 degree colleges and 161 universities, according to Pakistan Higher Education Commission report for 2013-14.  The 3 million enrollment is 15% of the 20 million Pakistanis in the eligible age group of 18-24 years.  In addition, there are over 255,000 Pakistanis enrolled in vocational training schools, according to Technical Education and Vocational Training Authority (TEVTA).

Graduation Day at NED Engineering University For 1300 Graduates in 2013
Pakistani universities have been producing over half a million graduates, including over 10,000 IT graduates, every year since 2010, according to HEC data. The number of university graduates in Pakistan increased from 380,773 in 2005-6 to 493,993 in 2008-09. This figure is growing with rising enrollment and contributing to Pakistan's growing human capital.

Source: UNESCO's Global Education Digest 2009






Higher education in Pakistan has come a long way since its independence in 1947 when there was only one university, the University of Punjab. By 1997, the number of universities had risen to 35, of which 3 were federally administered and 22 were under the provincial governments, with a combined enrollment of 71,819 students. A big spending boost by President Pervez Musharraf helped establish 51 new universities and awarding institutions during 2002-2008. This helped triple university enrollment from 135,000 in 2003 to about 400,000 in 2008, according to Dr. Ata ur Rehman who led the charge for expanding higher education during Musharraf years. There are 161 universities with 1.5 million students enrolled in Pakistan as of 2014.

R&D Investment: 

Rise of research and publications at Pakistani universities began during Musharraf years when the annual budget for higher education increased from only Rs 500 million in 2000 to Rs 28 billion in 2008, to lay the foundations of the development of a strong knowledge economy, according to former education minister Dr. Ata ur Rehman. Student enrollment in universities increased from 270,000 to 900,000 and the number of universities and degree awarding institutions increased from 57 in 2000 to 137 by 2008. Government R&D spending jumped seven-fold as percentage of GDP from 0.1% of GDP in 1999 to 0.7% of GDP in 2007. It has since declined as percentage of GDP.

Summary:

British ranking agency Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) has ranked 23 Pakistani universities among the top 500 Asian universities for 2019, up from 16 in 2018.  Other South Asian universities figuring in the QS top universities report are 75 from India, 6 from Bangladesh and 4 from Sri Lanka. Pakistani scientists and researchers are continuing to produced highly cited research in spite of serious economic and security challenges. Enrollment in higher education is rising and giving a boost to academic research. With better policy focus and more investment in higher education, Pakistan  can make an even greater impact with its young demographics.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Pakistan Becomes CERN Member

Pakistani Scientists at CERN

Rising College Enrollment in Pakistan

10 Pakistani Universities Among Asia's Top 300

Genomics and Biotech Research in Pakistan

Human Capital Growth in Pakistan

Educational Attainment in Pakistan

Pakistan Human Development in Musharraf Years

Sunday, October 21, 2018

Brand Finance 2018: Brand Pakistan Value Jumps 15%

Pakistan's brand value has jumped 15% to $196 billion in 2018, up from $171 billion in 2017, according to Brand Finance's Nations Brands Report 2018. The report ranks Pakistan at 51 among 100 nations ranked. It gives Pakistan an A brand rating on a scale from AAA+ to CCC-.

It is remarkable that Pakistan's brand value has increased by double digits and the country still ranks smack in the middle of the 100 nations ranked in spite of a concerted western and Indian media campaign to destroy its image.

Top 100 Most Valuable Nation Brands. Source: Brand Finance

The brand value of a country is an attempt to quantify its national image in the global marketplace. It encourages inward investment, adds value to exports, and attracts foreign tourists, according to the report.

Pakistan ranks ahead of 49 countries including Hungary, Slovakia, Egypt, Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Croatia, Serbia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Iceland and Cyprus. Among South Asian nations, Pakistan (51) ranks behind India (9) and Bangladesh (39) but ahead of Sri Lanka (61) and Myanmar (73).

The United States tops the list with a brand value of nearly $26 trillion followed by China in second place with a brand value of nearly $13 trillion. Germany ranks 3rd, United Kingdom 4th, Japan 5th, France 6th, Canada 7th, Italy 8th, India 9th and South Korea 10th round off the top 10.

Pakistan's brand value has jumped 15% to $196 billion in 2018, up from $171 billion in 2017, according to Brand Finance's Nations Brands Report 2018. The report ranks Pakistan at 51 among 100 nations ranked. It gives Pakistan an A brand rating on a scale from AAA+ to CCC-.  It is remarkable that Pakistan's brand value has increased by double digits and the country still ranks smack in the middle of the 100 nations ranked in spite of a concerted western and Indian media campaign to destroy its image.

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Tuesday, October 9, 2018

HSBC: Pakistan Among World's Fastest Growing Economies Till 2030

Recently released HSBC report titled "The World in 2030" says that "five Asian economies will be among the world’s six fastest-growing economies – Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Pakistan and Vietnam". HSBC ranks Pakistan at number 4 in terms of GDP growth till 2030 and expects Pakistan to rise from the world's 40th biggest economy in 2018 in nominal terms to the world's 30th largest economy by 2030. Pakistan economy does face some short-term headwinds because of its balance of payments crisis requiring an IMF bailout. However, longer term prospects for growth look good.

American business publication Wall Street Journal has produced a short video explaining how its staff sees what it describes as "US-China conflict brewing in Pakistan". What is at stake in the battle between China and the United States in Pakistan is the prize of global superpower status.  Whoever wins in Pakistan will become the number one global superpower, says the Wall Street Journal.

Pakistan 4th Among Top 10 Fastest Growing Economies. Source: HSBC

The HSBC report authors look at 75 economies in developing, emerging and frontier markets to make long-term projections of their growth potential and changes in global rankings. They conclude that emerging economies will account for roughly 50 per cent of global GDP by 2030 – a "seismic shift from half of that in 2000".

The report forecasts that Asia will continue to be the biggest driver of global economic growth and highlights that "China will be the world’s largest economy in 2030, overtaking the US, while India - currently the seventh biggest - will be third, pushing Germany and Japan down a position".

An earlier 2017 report by Harvard University's Kennedy School's Center for International Development (CID) at Harvard University forecast Pakistan's annual GDP growth to average 5.97% over the next 8 years, ranking it as the world's 6th fastest growing economy.

Growth Projections. Source: HKS CID Report


The Harvard growth projections are a bit more optimistic that other short, medium and long-term GDP growth forecasts for Pakistan offered by HSBC's 5% through 2050,   IMF's 5.5% till 2020, World Bank's 5.8% until 2019 and  The Economist EIU's 5.7% in 2017

Among the top 10 fastest growing economies, the CID projects Uganda to grow the fastest at 7.73%, followed by India 7.72%, Tanzania 6.66%, Senegal 6.49%, Madagascar 6.07%, Kenya 5.98%, Pakistan 5.97%, Indonesia 5.82%, Mali 5.75%, Turkey 5.64% and Philippines 5.43%.

Among Pakistan's other neighbors,  Harvard Kennedy School forecast China to grow at 4.41%, Sri Lanka at 3.77% and Bangladesh at 2.82%.

Pakistan economy does face some short-term headwinds because of its balance of payments crisis requiring an IMF bailout. However, longer term prospects for growth look good. Improved security situation and rising investments, particularly the China Pakistan Economic Corridor or CPEC-related investments led by China, are helping accelerate the economic growth in the country.  It is the fear of CPEC's success that appears to be driving a growing campaign of fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) waged by Pakistan's detractors in South Asia region and around the world.  American business publication Wall Street Journal has produced a short video explaining how its staff sees what it describes as "US-China conflict brewing in Pakistan". What is at stake in the battle between China and the United States in Pakistan is the prize of global superpower status.  Whoever wins in Pakistan will become the number one global superpower, says the Wall Street Journal.


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