Tuesday, April 28, 2020

International Telecommunications Union Ranks Pakistan Regulator Among Top 5 in Asia Pacific

International Communications Union has ranked Pakistan Telecommunications Authority (PTA) among top 5 regulators in Asia Pacific region.  Pakistan's ICT regulations are 4th generation (G4), more advanced than India's and Bangladesh's 3rd generation (G3) regulations, according to the ITU report titled “Global ICT Regulatory Outlook 2020 (GIRO)”. Only 8% states have managed to achieve G4 status of the 38 economies ranked in Asia-Pacific region. G4 regulations address both economic and social goals.  Among the key policy goals are financial inclusion and digital inclusion.

Telecom Regulators Grouped in 4 Generations. Source: ITU

Pakistan's ICT regulations are ranked 4th in Asia Pacific, ahead of Malaysia's ranked 5 but behind Singapore's ranked 1, Japan's ranked 2 and Australia's ranked 3.  Pakistan scores 88 and ranks 48th in the world among 193 countries. The report uses 50 indicators organized across four pillars: regulatory authority, regulatory mandate, regulatory regime, competition framework. Pakistan scores 20/20 for regulatory authority, 22/30 for regulatory regime and 27/28 for competition framework and 19/22 for regulatory mandate.

ITU's Definition of 4 Generations of ICT Regulatory Regimes. Source: ITU

The Global ICT Regulatory Outlook 2020 benchmarks regulatory progress across no fewer than 193 countries worldwide. In three years, the report claims it has established itself as the go-to reference for regulators and policy-makers seeking to shape meaningful, regulatory change that will benefit all.

Pakistan Telecom Indicators As Of December 31, 2019

Pakistan's designation as G4 country and its high rank is in part due to its efforts to use its regulatory powers to close the digital divide. Pakistan's Universal Service Fund (USF) promotes the development of telecommunication services in un-served and under-served areas and populations throughout across the country. The fund consists of contributions (1.5% of adjusted revenues) by the Telecom Operators with no Government funding involved.

Internet traffic in Pakistan has surged 15% amid COVID-19 lockdown, according to Pakistan Telecommunications Authority (PTA). This spike has occurred in spite the fact that Netflix and YouTube have reduced their bandwidth requirements during the current health crisis. Netflix says it has cut its bandwidth use by 25% without sacrificing quality.  Google's YouTube video platform has decided to temporarily change the quality of all videos on YouTube to standard definition.The increased traffic is mainly due to people working from homes. Pakistan has nearly 80 million 
broadband subscribers as of now.

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Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel


Sunday, April 26, 2020

Will Coronavirus Pandemic End in Summer Months of May and June?

A study by researchers at a Singapore University predicts that the current coronavirus pandemic will end in the months of May and June. Specifically, the researchers forecast that 97% of the pandemic will end around May 11 in the United States, May 21 in India and June 8 in Pakistan.

Pakistan Coronavirus Case Curve. Source: Singapore University
Singapore Pandemic Model:

The authors of the Singapore study argue that, like other past pandemics, the current covid19 pandemic will follow a bell curve, essentially "a life cycle pattern from the outbreak to the acceleration phase, inflection point, deacceleration phase and eventual stop or ending". Here's an excerpt of the Singapore paper published by Jianxi Luo:

"Such a life cycle is the result of the adaptive and countering behaviours of agents including individuals (avoiding physical contact) and governments (locking down cities) as well as the natural limitations of the ecosystem. However, the pandemic life cycles vary by countries, and different countries might be in different phases of the life cycles at a specific point in time. For instance, on April 21, in Singapore, Prime Minister Hsien-Loong Lee announced the extension of circuit breaker to June 1 in response to the spikes of COVID-19 cases, on the same day when Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced Italy’s plan to reopen from May 4. Ideally such decisions and planning can be rationalized by well knowing where our own country (together with the world as a whole) is in its own pandemic life cycle, when the turning point is coming if it has yet come, and most importantly when the pandemic will end. The basis for such actionable estimation is the pandemic’s life cycle."

The study says that the cases in Pakistan are at or very near their peak while those in the United States are past their peak already. The model shows the US peak of daily infections count being more than 30 times higher than the peak in Pakistan.

There are many theories explaining why Pakistan and the rest of South Asia have fared much better than America and Europe. While it is true that the testing rates in South Asia are low compared to America and Europe, the percentages of people testing positive in South Asia are also low. Here are the numbers: India 4.36%, Bangladesh 11.43% and Pakistan 8.26%, Italy 12.69, US 19.55, France 34.09.

The explanations offered for low coronavirus infection rates in South Asia include more sunshinehigher temperature and humidity, younger demographics, universal BCG vaccinations etc.

US Government Sunlight Study: 

Preliminary results of a US Government study reveal that the sunlight quickly destroys COVID19, the novel coronavirus. The study found that the risk of “transmission from surfaces outdoors is lower during daylight” and under higher temperature and humidity conditions, according to Yahoo News. This latest work reinforces the conclusions of "Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?", a recent paper written jointly by Pakistani and Indian researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Ultraviolet (UV) light, a component of sunlight, has long been known to be an effective disinfectant.

BCG Vaccination: 

A New York Institute of Technology study using data from 178 countries has concluded that both the incidence and mortality of COVID-19  are significantly lower in countries with BCG vaccination programs against TB.

Scientists do not have data yet on the effect of BCG vaccination on coronaviruses in general or SARS-CoV-2 in particular, according to Reuters. There are also many BCG vaccines, with different capacities to protect against various TB strains. Scientists need to determine which BCG vaccines might have the best ability to boost the innate immune system to fight COVID-19.  Scientists say it will take several months to get results from ongoing trials testing the BCG vaccine against COVID-19.

Heat and Humidity: 

A paper titled "Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?" written by Dr. Qasim Bukhari and Dr. Yusuf Jamil explains that "several countries between 30N and 30S such as Australia, UAE, Qatar, Singapore, Bahrain, Qatar and Taiwan have performed extensive testing per capita and the number of positive 2019-nCoV cases per capita are lower in these countries compared to several European countries and the US".  "The relation between the number of 2019-nCoV cases and temperature and absolute humidity observed here is strong however, the underlying reasoning behind
this relationship is still not clear", they write.

Young Population:

Median age in Pakistan is 22.8 years. Only 3.4% of Pakistanis are 65 years or older, compared to 25% of Italy's population. People 65 and over are the most vulnerable to coronavirus infections and poor outcomes.

“Countries with younger populations should have a different epidemic curve because of the age effect, especially for deaths due to Covid-19,” says Dr. Madhukar Pai, director of Global Health at McGill University in Canada, according to The Print.  Younger people have mild or asymptomatic infection and, over time, they will protect others through herd immunity,



US Coronavirus Case Curve. Source: Singapore University

Summary:

A Singapore study of the current coronavirus pandemic predicts that the summer months of May and June will bring significant relief.  Specifically, the researchers forecast that 97% of the pandemic will end around May 11 in the United States and June 8 in Pakistan.   The model shows the US peak being more than 30 times higher than the peak in Pakistan. There are many theories explaining why Pakistan and the rest of South Asia have fared much better than America and Europe. While it is true that the testing rates in South Asia are low compared to America and Europe, the percentages of people testing positive in South Asia are also low. Here are the numbers: India 4.36%, Bangladesh 11.43% and Pakistan 8.26%, Italy 12.69, US 19.55, France 34.09.   The explanations offered for low coronavirus infection rates in South Asia include more sunshinehigher temperature and humidity, younger demographics, universal BCG vaccinations etc.

Related Links:

Friday, April 24, 2020

Coronavirus Pandemic Humbles World’s Great Powers

Covid19 pandemic has brought the world to its knees. It has humbled some of the most powerful nations on earth. It has paralyzed the global economy. It is believed to have started in China, the newest superpower. 

Coronavirus has so far infected nearly 3 million people globally. It has ravaged the United States, the reigning superpower, as well as its rich and powerful allies in Western Europe.  The United States leads the world with a million infections so far and over 50,000 deaths.

It has not spared developing nations like Iran and Turkey either. And it is now threatening to spread to the rest of the developing world in Asia, Africa and Latin America.

Coronavirus has so far infected nearly 12,000 and killed 253 people in Pakistan.

This pandemic is a reminder to all that lethal pathogens are a huge common threat to all of humanity.

Recently, I participated in a wide ranging discussion on coronavirus’ origins, impact, conspiracy theories, lockdown & plans to reopen business and economy.

Please watch it below:

 https://youtu.be/q5PapZgyI0s





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Thursday, April 23, 2020

Incomes of Pakistan's Poorest Rising Faster Than Richest Pakistanis'

Pakistan Living Standards Measurement Survey (PSLM/HIES) of 2018-19 has revealed that the incomes of the poorest Pakistanis are rising much faster than the those of their richest counterparts. The survey measures changes in incomes, expenditures and living standards of the population by quintiles on a periodic basis. The survey provides detailed outcome indicators on education, health, population welfare, housing, water sanitation and hygiene, information communication and technology (ICT), food insecurity experience scale (FIES) and income and expenditure.

Average Monthly Income Growth By Quintiles. Courtesy: Bilal Gilani of Gallup Pakistan

PSLM/HIES 2018-19 compares incomes with those reported in PSLM/HIES 2015-16.  It shows that the average household monthly income in Pakistan has jumped 16.5% to Rs. 41,545.  It also shows that the average monthly income of the lowest quintile (Q1) in Pakistan rose 17.5% and that of the second lowest quintile (Q2) grew 22%, significantly faster than 11.7% for the middle quintile (Q3) and 12% and 5.1% for the top two quintiles (Q4 and Q5) respectively.

The average monthly income of Q1, the poorest quintile, stands at Rs. 23,192 in 2018-19. The second-lowest quintile’s income is Rs. 29,049. The middle-income group (Q3) is Rs. 31,373. The higher middle-income group’s average monthly income has increased to Rs. 37,643. The average monthly income of the top income group (Q4) is estimated at Rs. 63,544.
Monthly Household Incomes By Provinces. Source: PLSM/HIES 2018-19

Average monthly household income in Balochistan is Rs. 36,387, the lowest among the provinces. However, it has grown 21.2% since 2015-16,  much faster than Punjab's 18.3%, KP's 11.4% and Sindh's 15.1%.

Change in Share of Income From 1990 To 2015 in Poorest (Left) & Richest (Right) Quintiles. Source: UNESCAP

Pakistan's latest PSLM/HIES survey confirms long term trend of the lower quintiles gaining an increasing share of the national income.  Earlier in 2015, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (NESCAP) Statistical Yearbook for 2015 showed that the share of national income of Pakistan's poorest 20% of households increased from 8.1% to 9.6% in 1990-2015.  It was the highest share of income for the bottom income quintile reported in the region.


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Monday, April 20, 2020

Pakistan's Internet Traffic Surge Amid Coronavirus Lockdown

Internet traffic in Pakistan has surged 15% amid COVID-19 lockdown, according to Pakistan Telecommunications Authority (PTA). This spike has occurred in spite the fact that Netflix and YouTube have reduced their bandwidth requirements during the current health crisis. Netflix says it has cut its bandwidth use by 25% without sacrificing quality.  Google's YouTube video platform has decided to temporarily change the quality of all videos on YouTube to standard definition.The increased traffic is mainly due to people working from homes. Pakistan has nearly 80 million 
broadband subscribers as of now.


PTA:

In an announcement on March 26, 2019, PTA reported "net increase of around 15% in internet usage was witnessed since last week as the country fights against Coronavirus". PTA went on to assure users that "there is sufficient internet capacity available in the country to meet the growing demands of the future". This surge in Internet traffic has occurred in spite of Netflix and YouTube cutting their bandwidth requirements.

Netflix:

Netflix notified PTA in March that "it has developed ways to reduce Netflix’s traffic on telecommunications networks by 25% while also maintaining the quality of service" during the COVID19 pandemic. This action is aimed at reducing stress on the network as people are forced to work from home.

Pakistan Telecom Indicators As Of December 31, 2019

Google/YouTube:

Google's YouTube video platform has decided to temporarily change the quality of all videos on YouTube to standard definition. In addition, Google has launched "Bolo" in Pakistan. It is a speech-based reading app in Urdu that uses machine learning to help children read aloud confidently, using their own voice. A free English app has also been introduced that includes fast and easy lessons on business, marketing, management, and more.

Google has added new features and resources to provide locally relevant information to Pakistani users. These include expansion of COVID-19 SOS Alerts and Knowledge Panels on Google Search, as well as YouTube Information Panels. These product features link to National Institute of Health (NIH), to provide locally relevant information to Pakistani citizens.

Google is also offering ad inventory to the Ministry of National Health Services so they can spotlight timely, helpful information. Google has also shared tips and resources for remote workers and students enabling them to improve their productivity. These include a new collection of distance learning solutions, training, and resources to help teachers and students stay connected.

Summary:

Pakistan has seen a 15% surge in Internet traffic since the coronavirus lockdown started forcing many people to work from home. This traffic spike has occurred in spite of bandwidth hogs like Netflix and YouTube cutting their bandwidth requirements. Pakistan has nearly 80 million subscribers.

Related Links:

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Digitization in Pakistan

Can Pakistan Effectively Respond to COVID19 Pandemic?

Pakistani-American Woman Featured in Netflix Documentary "Pandemic"

Public Sector IT Projects in Pakistan

Pakistan's Gig Economy 4th Largest in the World

Afiniti and Careem: Tech Unicorns Made in Pakistan

Pakistani American Heads Silicon Valley's Top Incubator

Silicon Valley Pakistani-Americans

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Pakistan's Demographic Dividend

Pakistan EdTech and FinTech Startups

State Bank Targets Fully Digital Economy in Pakistan

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The Other 99% of the Pakistan Story

FMCG Boom in Pakistan

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Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel


Saturday, April 18, 2020

Will Summer Sunshine Suppress Coronavirus Pandemic?

Preliminary results of a US Government study reveal that the sunlight quickly destroys COVID19, the novel coronavirus. The study found that the risk of “transmission from surfaces outdoors is lower during daylight” and under higher temperature and humidity conditions, according to Yahoo News. This latest work reinforces the conclusions of "Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?", a recent paper written jointly by Pakistani and Indian researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Ultraviolet (UV) light, a component of sunlight, has long been known to be an effective disinfectant.


Homeland Security Study: 

The study by US Department of Homeland Security scientists concludes that “sunlight destroys the virus quickly” but it also warns that enclosed areas with low humidity, such as airplane cabins, “may require additional care to minimize risk of transmission. ”Simulated sunlight “rapidly killed the virus in aerosols,” the study says, while without that treatment, “no significant loss of virus was detected in 60 minutes. ”While the DHS describes the results as preliminary, they may eventually make their way into specific recommendations. “Outdoor daytime environments are lower risk for transmission,” the briefing states.

Dr. Qasim Bukhari's Work: 

Dr. Qasim Bukhari, a Pakistani-American scientist at MIT,  told Yahoo News that since he and his colleagues published that analysis, the numbers on the coronavirus’s spread continue to support their contention. “They are doing a lot of tests now in India. Also, when you look at the numbers in Pakistan it’s the same. There are more than 5,000 cases in Pakistan right now,” he said. “But the increase is not as rapid as you see in other countries.”

Last month I followed up with Dr. Qasim Bukhari, a fellow NED University alumnus from Karachi, about his findings. Here's a brief Question/Answer version of the email exchange I had with Dr. Bukhari:

 RH: My understanding from the data I have seen from various sources is that the coronavirus transmission rates decline but do not necessarily go to zero in hot and humid weather. And the reason is that the fatty outer layer of the virus has trouble in heat and humidity. Is that accurate?

QB: That would be almost accurate. The only thing we don't know so far is, how much decline in growth rate we are talking about. It is definitely non-zero. The underlying reasons may be many or either of many. One reason could be the fatty outer layer reason that you mentioned. Other reason could be the antibacterial nature of sunlight, another reason could be low indirect transmission (through air) in high humidity.

"There is indeed evidence that weather plays a role, but in no way we are suggesting that this role alone would be so decisive as to completely halt the spread of COVID. And anyway, the affect of this weather would only be relevant in humid hot countries. Please do share, but please use the right words that properly communicate that it is incredibly important to take precautions and quarantine measures even in the most humid hot regions, as the spread would keep on going without that, we have evidence from Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia of this."

Over 90% of Coronavirus Cases So Far in Red Zone. Source: Dr. Qasim Bukhari and Dr. Yusuf Jamil 

Wang, Weifeng, Beihang and Ke Tang: 

There is similar work that has recently been published by a Chinese research team that included Jingyuan Wang, Kai Feng, Weifeng Lv of Beihang University, and Ke Tang from Tsinghua University. They studied 100 different Chinese cities that each reported more than 40 cases of COVID-19 from Jan. 21 to 23, 2020.

“In the early dates of the outbreaks, countries with relatively lower air temperature and lower humidity (e.g. Korea, Japan and Iran) saw severe outbreaks than warmer and more humid countries (e.g. Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand) do," the researchers wrote.

COVID-16 Transmission Rates Vs Temperature and Humidity

Here's an excerpt from the abstract published by the team:

"After estimating the serial interval of COVID-19 from 105 pairs of the virus carrier and the infected, we calculate the daily effective reproductive number, R, for each of all 100 Chinese cities with more than 40 cases. Using the daily R values from January 21 to 23, 2020 as proxies of non-intervened transmission intensity, we find, under a linear regression framework for 100 Chinese cities, high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19."

Some experts are pointing to the increased amount of UV rays from the sun the Northern Hemisphere will be subject to this time of year as a factor that could slow the virus, according to a story in AccuWeather.

Dr. Anthony Fauci On Effect of Weather:

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) who also serves on the White House coronavirus task force, has acknowledged that a change of season might affect COVID transmission rates.

Here's what he said at a recent White House briefing: “I think it (weather) very well might. And the reason I say that is that what we’re starting to see now in the Southern Hemisphere, in southern Africa and in the southern hemisphere countries, is that we’re having cases that are appearing as they go into their winter season. And if, in fact, they have a substantial outbreak, it will be inevitable that we need to be prepared, that we’ll get a cycle around the second time.”

Summary:

A US Government study has found that the sunlight quickly destroys the coronavirus. Ultraviolet (UV) light, a component of sunlight, has long been known to be an effective disinfectant.  Mainstream US and Indian media have also widely covered a recent MIT paper on the effects of heat and humidity on coronavirus transmission. Dr. Qasim Bukhari, the lead author and alumnus of NED University located in Karachi, Pakistan, has shared data showing that 90% of the coronavirus cases so far have occurred  in a regions with absolute humidity between 4 and 10 grams per cubic meter. Recent Chinese research is also showing that hot and humid weather may significantly slow down transmission of coronavirus or COVID-19. An increase of just one degree Celsius and 1% relative humidity increase substantially lower the (Covid-19  or 2019-nCoV) virus’s transmission, says a study published on March 10, 2020 by Chinese researchers. One possible reason is that the fatty outer layer of the virus has trouble surviving in high heat and humidity. The virus disintegrates when the fatty outer cover is gone in a way similar to how the soap and hot water destroy it. This may explain why there appear to be relatively few reports of local COVID-19 transmissions in places like Pakistan. Most of the known coronavirus cases in Pakistan appear to be those of the people who have come into the country from cold, dry places like northern Iran where the pandemic is raging. The rate of local transmission in Pakistan is not zero but relatively low. Dr. Bukhari says that "there is indeed evidence that weather plays a role, but in no way we are suggesting that this role alone would be so decisive as to completely halt the spread of COVID."

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Friday, April 10, 2020

Kachhi Canal and N-70 Highway Projects to Boost Pakistan's Balochistan

East-West infrastructure projects in Pakistan pose unique challenges. Sending hundreds of cusecs of water up more than a mile from the River Indus to Balochistan via Kachhi canal is one of these challenges. Another challenge is to improve and expand national east-west highways like N-70.  These recently completed infrastructure projects linking South Punjab with Balochistan will  boost agriculture and transportation sectors and bring economic benefits to Pakistanis living in the country's least developed areas.

Kachhi Canal Project: 

Recently completed 400 kilometers in phase 1 of 500 kilometer long Kachhi Canal is now the longest irrigation canal in Pakistan.  It stretches from the plains of South Punjab to the heights of eastern Balochistan where it will eventually irrigate over 700,000 acres of arid land, according to WAPDA (Water and Power Development Authority).

Kachhi Canal Pakistan

Part of Kachhi canal is made up of 56 inch diameter pipeline that will pump 120 cusecs (cubic feet per sec) of Indus water 7,000 feet above sea level across Sulaiman mountain range. This feat of engineering made possible by NESPAK (National Engineering Services of Pakistan), a consulting firm that I worked for 3 years in mid-1970s.

Kachhi Canal Project Phases


National Highway N-70: 

National highway N-70 runs from Multan in Punjab to the town of Qilla Saifullah via Dera Ghazi Khan, and Loralai in Balochistan province.  It requires traversing 11,500 feet high Sulaiman mountains, the southern extension of Hindu Kush mountain range. It has recently been completed.

N-70 Highway Pakistan

The condition of old British colonial era N-70 national highway was very poor. In particular, the hilly sections of the road suffered from frequent rock falls and debris and occasional land slides from the steep mountain side. It had narrow road width, coupled with hair-pin bends and relatively steep slope. Trucks pulling containers were forced to take alternative route via N-65 highway to Quetta.  The solution was to use seven steel bridges that were 11.5 kilometers in length. The project was completed at a cost of $142 million with the assistance of JICA, Japan's international aid agency.

Steel Bridges At Fort Monroe on N70 Highway


Summary:

Recently completed infrastructure projects linking South Punjab with Balochistan will  boost agriculture and transportation sectors and the economy in Pakistan's least developed areas. Kachhi canal will irrigate hundreds of thousands of acres of arid land while improvement and widening of N-70 east-west national highway will help movement of goods and people to integrate remote areas with the national economy.


Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

Thursday, April 2, 2020

Can Pakistan's TB Vaccination Program Help Reduce Impact of Coronavirus?

Can Pakistan's 88% BCG vaccination rate against tuberculosis (TB) help reduce the impact of coronavirus? A New York Institute of Technology study using data from 178 countries has concluded that both the incidence and mortality of COVID-19  are significantly lower in countries with BCG vaccination programs against TB. Will this study help prove Dawn News' alarming forecast of over 2 million confirmed cases by June 1 and 20 million actual infections wrong?

Pakistan's Dawn News Coronavirus Forecast


The study has found that the coronavirus has hit US and Italy which do not have universal BCG vaccination programs much harder than countries like Japan which do.  Scientists say it will take several months to get results from ongoing trials testing the BCG vaccine against COVID-19.
TB Vaccine May Lower Death Rates From COVID-19. Source: NYIT College of Osteopathic Medicine  

Scientists have speculated that BCG vaccine may boost the innate immune system not just against TB but also against a variety of other pathogens from invading the body or from establishing an infection. Here are some of the key findings of the study summarized below:

1. Countries that do not have a BCG vaccination policy against TB have seen 10X greater incidence and deaths from Covid-19 than the countries that do, according to a study of  data from 178 countries by New York Institute of Technology researchers.

2. BCG, or Bacillus Calmette-Guérin, is a vaccine for tuberculosis (TB). It is administered at birth in many developing countries that have historically suffered from the disease, such as India and Pakistan. Most of the developed nations, including US, Italy and the Netherlands do not have universal TB vaccination programs. Japan is among the few developed OECD nations that still do. The East Asian nation had some of the earlier cases, but the mortality is low despite not having adopted some the more stringent social distancing rules.

3. The study looked at Covid-19 instances and mortality for 15 days between March 9 and 24 in 178 countries and concluded that incidence of Covid-19 was 38.4 per million in countries with BCG vaccination compared to 358.4 per million in the absence of such a program.

4. The death rate was 4.28 per million in countries with BCG programs compared to 40 per million in countries without such a program. Out of the 178 countries studied, 21 had no vaccination program, while the status was unclear in 26 countries. The latter group was treated as not having a policy for the purpose of this study.

Scientists do not have data yet on the effect of BCG vaccination on coronaviruses in general or SARS-CoV-2 in particular, according to Reuters. There are also many BCG vaccines, with different capacities to protect against various TB strains. Scientists need to determine which BCG vaccines might have the best ability to boost the innate immune system to fight COVID-19.  Scientists say it will take several months to get results from ongoing trials testing the BCG vaccine against COVID-19.

Related Links:

Wednesday, April 1, 2020

A Tale of Pakistani-American Victim of Coronavirus in Silicon Valley

I have just learned that a close Pakistani-American friend of mine in Silicon Valley is recovering from the disease caused by COVID-19. He’s a 66 years old man. His age and gender put him in a relatively high-risk category for coronavirus infection. When he took his elderly mother to a local emergency room in early March, he had only one face mask which he gave to her. He thinks he may have been infected in the emergency room or during one of his multiple visits to two family members in local hospitals in the weeks leading up to his illness.  He is a man of deep faith. He bathed as required for ihram, the ritual Islamic purification during pilgrimage to Mecca, before going to the hospital. He said he was mentally prepared to die even before getting confirmation of his illness from the novel coronavirus.

He was driven by one of his daughters to a hospital after experiencing high fever, shortness of breath and severe headache just over a week ago. He took a shower before going to the hospital which brought his fever down by the time he got to the hospital. He was directed to a tent set up in the hospital parking lot for coronavirus testing. They checked his temperature and, at first, refused the test because his fever had come down. But then they relented and tested him. They took three samples of genetic material with long swabs inserted deep inside his throat and both nostrils. It was not at all a pleasant experience. He was the eighth person tested on that day.

A day after the COVID19 test my friend got a call to confirm that he had tested positive. His doctor asked him to isolate himself in a room at his home separate from his family. The doctor also told him to drink a lot of fluids, monitor his blood oxygen level and to come to the hospital immediately if the oxygen level dropped below 90%. It did go to 91% briefly but then came back up. He was miserable but his faith kept him going.  He took deep breaths to keep his blood oxygen level above 90%. Lying on his stomach also helped reduce pressure on his lungs.

All members of his household were also quarantined within the house. Unable to leave home, they soon discovered that Instacart, Amazon Fresh and other grocery delivery services did not work for them. These companies were overwhelmed with massive orders volume. He and his family did not call me for help. One of his cousins delivered food and groceries the family needed.

Many of his friends and relatives started calling him the moment they found out he was ill. There were so many calls that he had to turn off his phone. He even missed important calls from his doctor because his phone was turned off.

His fever finally broke yesterday. It is now normal at 98 degrees but his doctor and the city of Fremont have asked him to continue his quarantine for another week. They say the period he’s been in quarantine doesn’t count because he took Tylenol. He's supposed to be symptom-free without any medication for 72 hours before ending his isolation.

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