Tuesday, June 4, 2019

How Grim is the State of Pakistan's Social Sector?

If you read Pakistan media headlines and donation-seeking NGOs and activists' reports these days, you'd conclude that the social sector situation is entirely hopeless. However, if you look at children's education and health trend lines based on data from credible international sources, you would feel a sense of optimism. This exercise gives new meaning to what former US President Bill Clinton has said: Follow the trend lines, not the headlines. Unlike the alarming headlines, the trend lines in Pakistan show rising school enrollment rates and declining infant mortality rates.

Key Social Indicators:

The quickest way to assess Pakistan's social sector progress is to look at two key indicators:  School enrollment rates and infant mortality. These basic social indicators capture the state of schooling, nutrition and health care. Pakistan is continuing to make slow but steady progress on both of these indicators. Anything that can be done to accelerate the pace will help Pakistan move up to higher levels as proposed by Dr. Hans Rosling and adopted by the United Nations. 

Rising Primary Enrollment:

Gross enrollment in Pakistani primary schools exceeded 97% in 2016, up from 92% ten years ago. Gross enrollment rate (GER) is different from net enrollment rate (NER). The former refers to primary enrollment of all students of all ages while the latter counts enrolled students as percentage of students in the official primary age bracket. The primary NER in Pakistan is significantly lower but the higher GER indicates many of these kids eventually enroll in primary schools albeit at older ages. 

Source: World Bank Education Statistics


Declining Infant Mortality Rate: 

The infant mortality rate (IMR), defined as the number of deaths in children under 1 year of age per 1000 live births in the same year, is universally regarded as a highly sensitive (proxy) measure of population health.  A declining rate is an indication of improving health. IMR in Pakistan has declined from 86 in 1990-91 to 74 in 2012-13 and 62 in the latest survey in 2017-18.

Pakistan Child Mortality Rates. Source: PDHS 2017-18

During the 5 years immediately preceding the survey, the infant mortality rate (IMR) was 62 deaths per 1,000 live births. The child mortality rate was 13 deaths per 1,000 children surviving to age 12 months, while the overall under-5 mortality rate was 74 deaths per 1,000 live births. Eighty-four percent of all deaths among children under age 5 in Pakistan take place before a child’s first birthday, with 57% occurring during the first month of life (42 deaths per 1,000 live births).

Human Development Ranking:

It appears that improvements in education and health care indicators in Pakistan are slower than other countries in South Asia region. Pakistan's human development ranking plunged to 150 in 2018, down from 149 in 2017. It is worse than Bangladesh at 136, India at 130 and Nepal at 149. The decade of democracy under Pakistan People's Party and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) has produced the slowest annual human development growth rate in the last 30 years. The fastest growth in Pakistan human development was seen in 2000-2010, a decade dominated by President Musharraf's rule, according to the latest Human Development Report 2018.

UNDP’s Human Development Index (HDI) represents human progress in one indicator that combines information on people’s health, education and income.

Pakistan's Human Development Growth Rate By Decades. Source: HDR 2018

Pakistan saw average annual HDI (Human Development Index) growth rate of 1.08% in 1990-2000, 1.57% in 2000-2010 and 0.95% in 2010-2017, according to Human Development Indices and Indicators 2018 Statistical Update.  The fastest growth in Pakistan human development was seen in 2000-2010, a decade dominated by President Musharraf's rule, according to the latest Human Development Report 2018.

Pakistan@100: Shaping the Future:

Pakistani leaders should heed the recommendations of a recent report by the World Bank titled "Pakistan@100: Shaping the Future" regarding investments in the people. Here's a key excerpt of the World Bank report:

"Pakistan’s greatest asset is its people – a young population of 208 million. This large population can transform into a demographic dividend that drives economic growth. To achieve that, Pakistan must act fast and strategically to: i) manage population growth and improve maternal health, ii) improve early childhood development, focusing on nutrition and health, and iii) boost spending on education and skills for all, according to the report".

Summary: 

The state of Pakistan's social sector is not as dire as the headlines suggest. There's reason for optimism. Key indicators show that education and health care in Pakistan are improving but such improvements are slower than in other countries in South Asia region. Pakistan's human development ranking plunged to 150 in 2018, down from 149 in 2017. It is worse than Bangladesh at 136, India at 130 and Nepal at 149. The decade of democracy under Pakistan People's Party and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) has produced the slowest annual human development growth rate in the last 30 years. The fastest growth in Pakistan human development was seen in 2000-2010, a decade dominated by President Musharraf's rule, according to the latest Human Development Report 2018. One of the biggest challenges facing the PTI government led by Prime Minister Imran Khan is to significantly accelerate human development rates in Pakistan.

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10 comments:

Anonymous said...

The trend in Pakistan in health especially child-health is not keeping pace with other countries in South Asia. As a WHO worker, Pakistan seems to be a very difficult place to work. While setting up Polio Administration Programme, we had to get 24/7 armed guard protection because of a pervasive belief that the world was anti-Pakistan. That needs to change for Pakistan's sake.


Morgan

Riaz Haq said...

Morgan: " we had to get 24/7 armed guard protection because of a pervasive belief that the world was anti-Pakistan"

Yes, there are conspiracy theories driving anti-vaxxers in Pakistan as elsewhere in the world but , unfortunately, US CIA actions have reinforced such theories in Pakistan.

Here's how a piece by Maryn McKenna published in Wired magazine describes the outrage:

"I felt, and still feel, that the maneuver — which was belatedly acknowledged by the CIA — was a cynical attempt to hijack the credibility that public health workers have built up over decades with local populations. I especially felt it endangered the status of the fraught polio-eradication campaign, which over the past decade has been challenged in majority-Muslim areas in Africa and South Asia over beliefs that polio vaccination is actually a covert campaign to harm Muslim children — an accusation that seems fantastic, but begins to make sense when you realize some of those areas have perfectly good reasons to distrust vaccination campaigns."

https://www.riazhaq.com/2012/05/american-hypocrisy-on-dr-afridis.html


In spite of serious issues created by US war on terror, the latest PDHS survey indicates that 66% of the children in Pakistan have received all basic vaccinations, up from 35% in 1990-91 and 55% in 2012-13. Only 4% have had no vaccinations, down from 28% in 1990-91.

https://www.riazhaq.com/2019/03/pakistan-survey-reveals-positive-trends.html

Riaz Haq said...

People Can Prosper And Thrive If Pakistan Reforms Faster

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2019/03/18/people-can-prosper-and-thrive-if-pakistan-reforms-faster

ISLAMABAD, March 18, 2019 – Pakistan urgently needs to invest more and better in its people if they are to be richer, better educated, and healthier when the country turns 100 years old in 2047, says a new report by the World Bank.

Launched today at the Human Capital Summit, the report, Pakistan@100: Shaping the Future, urges Pakistan to overcome its boom-bust cycles through a deep-rooted economic transformation. It recommends the essential reforms Pakistan needs now to accelerate and sustain growth. This means increasing and improving human capital investment, boosting productivity, promoting social and environmental sustainability, ensuring good governance, and leveraging its location to connect more with neighbors and the world beyond says the report.

“There are steps Pakistan can take today to boost its economic performance and thereby ensure a better future for its people,” says Hartwig Schafer, World Bank Vice President for South Asia. “These steps are ones that other countries have taken to open up their business sectors to competition and innovation and laying the foundations for growth, investment, and good jobs.”

The forward-looking report argues that Pakistan’s greatest asset is its people – a young population of 208 million. This large population can transform into a demographic dividend that drives economic growth. To achieve that, Pakistan must act fast and strategically to: i) manage population growth and improve maternal health, ii) improve early childhood development, focusing on nutrition and health, and iii) boost spending on education and skills for all, according to the report.

“Because the next generation is meeting only 40 percent of its potential it means that Pakistan is foregoing much of its economic growth, but this can change if women’s potential is unlocked,” says Annette Dixon, World Bank Vice President for Human Development. “When women and girls are empowered to make their own decisions, they stay in school longer, they start families a little later, have fewer children, contribute more to the economy, and invest more in their children. It’s a virtuous circle that’s good for families and good for the whole country.”

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/31335

Riaz Haq said...

PM Imran Khan Focuses More On Attracting Investment In Social Sector Under CPEC

https://www.urdupoint.com/en/business/pm-imran-khan-focuses-more-on-attracting-inve-637693.html

Prime Minister Imran Khan has focused more on attracting investment in the social sector within the framework of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which would directly benefit the people of Pakistan, Focal Person of Chief Minister of Balochistan's Task Force on Youth, Sustainable Development Goals, Naseem Khan Achakzai said on Tuesday.

"Within the CPEC project, the Chinese government is expected to help Pakistan build hospitals and schools. This is one of the Prime Minister's focuses, which will directly benefit the people of Pakistan," he said in an exclusive interview with Global Times during his visit to the Chinese capital city.

On the construction of Gwadar Port and other CPEC projects, he remarked that for the growth of CPEC, the Gwadar international airport will be built three years from now, so the port is now somehow operational. There have been housing entities coming to Gwadar.

Gwadar will have its new master plan as well. There's a lot of construction going on when it comes to development projects. Thanks to CPEC, a lot of people, mostly Pakistanis, are purchasing property, both residential and commercial, in Gwadar, he added He informed that there are military troops and the local police who are guarding CPEC projects. The port is not accessible to everyone, only relevant employees.

"It's well understood that the development of CPEC helps improve Pakistan's infrastructure and its economy. It's beneficial for neighboring countries such as Iran and Afghanistan as well. If all goes smoothly, Pakistan will be an even stronger player in the South Asian region,"� he added.

Naseem Achakzai said that increasing technology exchange is one of the important things that should be done. That can be best practiced in the agriculture sector, as Pakistan's economy is highly dependent on the agriculture sector.

It is hoped that there should be greater cooperation in the agricultural field between China and Pakistan for local farmers and landowners to have more produce. A lot of technology has been used in farming in China. The same can be replicated in Pakistan.

Pakistan, he said, also needs to focus even more on healthcare and education, and obviously under the umbrella would be needing further support in these sectors.

He said education and employment are directly interrelated in that improved vocational and technical training, in particular, could better prepare the local labor force for wide-ranging job opportunities enabled by CPEC.

As the project goes further, more jobs will be created and an increase in engineering and exchange in technical know-how will be expected, factoring into the vision that there will be industrial zones around the CPEC route, he added.

While dispelling undue fears over the flagship project, he said since the announcement of CPEC in 2013, the security situation in the whole of Balochistan has improved substantially. From 2013 to date, figures show there's been a rapid decrease in attacks and other target killings.

The Pakistani military has a special division assigned for the CPEC project, he added.

Naseem Achakzai said the stability in Gwadar and Balochistan is very important for CPEC, since Gwadar is the heart and soul of CPEC. After the attack, Pakistan has already been acting more against the terrorist groups.

At the end of March, the second international Gwadar expo was held in the port city, with many high-level Chinese and Pakistan officials attending the expo.

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"Once there's heavy traffic coming on the main route, there are side links attached to it, initially giving a boost to local tourism and local businesses such as restaurants. Everybody is excited about it," he added.

Riaz Haq said...

A #Library Thrives, Quietly, in One of #Pakistan’s #Gun Markets in #Tribal Area. The Darra Adam Khel Library, less than a year old and with more than 2,500 books, offers residents a respite from the #arms bazaar that dominates local life. #FATA #KP
https://nyti.ms/2RmnQ9w

It has even caught the attention of the market’s arms sellers. Noor Ahmad Malik, sitting inside his gun shop, has gotten interested in books about India and Pakistan and Islamic history, calling the library the “best thing that happened recently for the people here.”


Darra Adam Khel was under Taliban control for years until the Pakistani Army cleared it in 2010. Still, it has been regularly targeted by militants, including a suicide bombing in 2012 that killed 16 people, and mosque attacks in 2010 that killed more than 60. With a population of more than 100,000, it is still largely no-man’s land, where Pakistani law wasn’t applicable until the merger of tribal areas in the neighboring Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province last year.

Now the military is helping Muhammad build a new library that can accommodate up to 65 people, seeing it as a way to help residents recover from years of traumatic violence.

“People are still reeling from the militancy, which has killed hundreds of civilians and soldiers,” said a government official serving in the area, who spoke on the condition of anonymity as he is not authorized to speak with the news media. “They are more prone to fear and stress, particularly among children, and now the availability of books is a good option for knowledge and education.”


In the nine months it has been open, it has drawn about 240 members, who pay 150 Pakistani rupees, about $1, a year. Thirty members are women, even though Darra Adam Khel is a conservative area where women are not allowed to go outside unaccompanied. They select books using the library’s Facebook page.

One of them is Shifa Raj, Muhammad’s 11-year-old daughter. A sixth grader and avid reader, she helps her father deliver books to the female members of the library.

“I told girls in the school that we have a library in our area: If you are interested, I will provide membership forms,” she said. “The response was remarkable.”

Muhammad considers the Pakistani activist Malala Yousafzai “our pride,” for her efforts to champion education for girls and becoming the youngest Nobel Prize laureate.

“I was born here,” Muhammad said. “I want the world to remember Darra Adam Khel with a good reputation, not for guns but for the books.”

Riaz Haq said...

USAID funding construction of 112 schools in Sindh

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/487012-usaid-funding-construction-of-112-schools-in-sindh

SUKKUR: The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Director for Sindh and Balochistan Michael Hryshchyshyn and Qazi Shahid Pervez, Secretary, School Education and Literacy Department, Government of Sindh inaugurated the recently completed school, Government Modern High School Sukkur, constructed with the USAID support.

Local notables, community elders, teachers, students, and parents were present on the occasion. The USAID funded new building of Government Modern High School Sukkur, was constructed at a cost of the $159.2 million. The USAID is assisting Sindh Basic Education Programme (SBEP), in partnership with the Government of Sindh.

Agha Fakhur Hussain, SBEP Programme Director, said the SBEP is a flagship partnership between the government of Sindh and the USAID. He said under the programme 112 schools would be constructed out of which 62 have been completed and 42 were handed over to the Education Management Organizations. The remaining 44 schools are in different stages of completion, he said.

The programme aims to increase and sustain student enrollment in primary, middle, and secondary public schools in select areas of Sindh, with a special focus on providing opportunity to children who have dropped out of school. In addition to constructing schools, SBEP also supports the government’s reforms in education, community mobilization, public-private partnerships, and improving reading competencies of students.

Riaz Haq said...

1 billion Dollar grant from China to fund social sector development projects under CPEC

http://www.cpecinfo.com/news/1-billion-dollar-grant-from-china-to-fund-social-sector-development-projects-under-cpec/NjcxMg==

After Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit to China and the 8th Joint Cooperation Committee meeting, socioeconomic development officially became part of the portfolio of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Now, a Chinese team is set to visit Pakistan this week to discuss various social sector projects in the country, which will be funded by a $1 billion Chinese grant. A priority list is expected to be shared by the Ministry of Planning with the Chinese team, after reviewing the proposals given by the provinces.

A team of Chinese experts is scheduled to visit Pakistan this week which is expected to announce and investment of over $1 billion in various social sector development projects in the country.

According to official sources, the Chinese experts will be evaluating a number of social sector projects being proposed by all the provinces including Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir. The ministry of Planning and Development, has already sought the proposals from the provinces for the Chinese grant.

“The ministry has started receiving list of the projects from provinces, which will be discussed and evaluated by both the Chinese and local experts. The $1 billion investment will be a grant from China under the multi-billion dollar China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC),” the sources said.

Ahead of the meeting with Chinese experts, the Ministry of Planning and Development is expected to hold a meeting with all stakeholders on Monday, February 25, to scrutinize the proposals made by provinces. A priority list of projects will later be shared with the Chinese team, which is expected to visit Pakistan from February 26.

“The Chinese team will also hold separate meetings with representatives of provinces and concerned officials to discuss the provincial priorities in the social sector. As announced earlier, the Chinese side will extend grant of over $1 billion for the selected social sector development projects,” sources said.

As CPEC progresses, Pakistan is looking to attract investment in agriculture and social sectors, diversifying away from the energy sector, in which China has already made substantial investment.

China’s Ambassador in Islamabad Yao Jing had earlier said that CPEC was a long-term project, adding that the five years of work done on CPEC, was just the start of the journey towards achieving socio-economic development in the region.

He said that China, in consultation with the Government of Pakistan, had decided to enter the next phase of CPEC which would focus on investment, joint ventures, establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZs), engagement in the power sector as well as export-oriented cooperation. The Chinese Ambassador said that the second area of focus for cooperation in the next phase of CPEC was the social sector and the areas identified were education, health, agriculture, poverty reduction and human resources.

According to officials at the Ministry of Planning, during the last Joint Coordination Committee of CPEC held in Beijing the two countries had agreed to work for speedy implementation of initiatives in already identified six areas including agriculture, education, medical treatment, poverty alleviation, water supply and vocational training projects.

During the next 5 years, small projects will be the focus of attention under the CPEC, which include renovation of schools, innovation in hospital system, poverty reduction, model villages and supply of clean water for the public.

Riaz Haq said...

DFID
Pakistan
Location:PakistanPart of:Department for International Development
Find out how the UK will respond to opportunities and challenges, what is being achieved for the UK and who we are working with.

https://www.gov.uk/world/organisations/dfid-pakistan

Helping to ensure a prosperous and stable Pakistan is critical for the future of millions of poor Pakistanis, and the stability and security of both the region and the UK. Almost a third of Pakistan’s population lives in poverty (over 60 million people), with women most seriously affected. 22.6 million children do not go to school and half of the population, including two thirds of women, cannot read or write. One in 11 children die before their fifth birthday, every year 9,700 women die in childbirth and 44% of children under 5 are stunted. Pakistan’s population is set to grow by 40 million people in the next 15 years and the economy needs to grow by more than 7% a year to create jobs for this growing young population. There is major inequality based on geography, gender, ethnicity, disability and faith and a significant modern slavery problem amongst the poor, minorities, women and children. Pakistan carries a high risk of natural disasters; it has the second highest number of refugees in the world and continues to suffer from extremism and militancy. Consolidating the growing democracy and capacity of government institutions remains essential.

Riaz Haq said...

Amjad Ali, #Karachi rickshaw driver, father of six daughters sending them all to school in #Pakistan. One of his daughter Muskan just won a scholarship to study at top #business school. #education #highereducation https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=2019062115073239

https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1142580970215788544

In a country where many women are still discouraged from getting an education and are married off early, Amjad Ali, a father of six daughters, and a rickshaw driver, has broken the mould by sending his daughters to Karachi’s leading universities, reports Samaa TV.

“People often mocked and criticised me, saying that girls are bound to get married and move out and to stop wasting my hard-earned money on my daughters,” he said.

But one of his daughters, Muskan, recently received a scholarship from the Institute of Business Administration, which is one of the top business schools in the country. “It was one of the happiest days of my life,” he said. “Be it a son or a daughter, the right to education is equal for all,” he believes.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistani #Punjab’s social sectors get lion’s share in Rs. 350 billion ADP (Annual Development Program). 35% of it will be apportioned for south Punjab under the regional equalization policy to accelerate development in less developed areas. https://www.dawn.com/news/1488349

The PTI’s Punjab government on Friday announced its second budget improving the allocation for Annual Development Programme (ADP) 2019-20 to Rs350 billion from Rs238bn in the outgoing fiscal year.

Even this 47 per cent increase in the ADP fails to match the allocation of Rs635bn made by the Shahbaz Sharif government in 2017-18.

Presenting the budget in the Punjab Assembly on Friday, Finance Minister Hashim Jawan Bakht said keeping in view of PTI’s stated priorities of social protection, human development and regional equalisation, a sum of Rs125bn, or 35.7pc of the total ADP, allocated for social sectors.

“Around 35pc of the ADP will be apportioned for south Punjab under the regional equalisation policy for bringing the less developed areas on a par with the developed ones,” he said.

Major initiatives in the ADP include expansion of health insurance scheme to all 36 districts, construction of four dams, taming of hill torrents at three sites, enhancing productivity of four main crops (wheat, rice, sugarcane, oilseed), establishment of four universities and 63 colleges, rural accessibility plan worth Rs15bn, infrastructure development of three large industrial estates, and setting up of model agriculture markets.

Among the social sector, education is the main beneficiary as a sum of Rs89.8bn has been earmarked for it, while health stands second with Rs47.5bn allowance. Water supply & sanitation will gain Rs22.4 billion, local governments Rs6.3bn, social welfare Rs1.0bn and women development Rs0.8bn.

The second major share of ADP goes to special initiatives with Rs65.35bn allocation. However, no explanation of the initiatives has been included in the budget documents.

Infrastructure development claims Rs87.7bn funds to stand at the third position. Of them roads construction will get Rs35bn, irrigation projects Rs23.4bn, urban development Rs13.5bn, public buildings Rs9.8bn, and energy Rs6.0bn.

Production sectors like agriculture, food, livestock, forestry and fisheries, industries, mines and minerals get Rs34.5bn. Of it an amount of Rs15.5bn is the share of agriculture, Rs7.5bn of industries and skills development, Rs3.4bn of forestry, Rs3.5bn for livestock & dairy development, and Rs1.5bn of tourism.

A sum of Rs20.6bn has been apportioned for services sectors. These included governance & IT (Rs6.0bn), labour and human resource development (Rs0.3bn), transport (Rs13.5bn), and emergency services (Rs0.8bn).

The Planning & Development Department and PSFP will get Rs14bn, environment and human rights Rs1bn each, information & culture and Auqaf Rs0.3bn each, and archaeology Rs0.35bn.

FOREIGN FUNDED: The ADP also includes 26 projects with foreign funding. The donors include the World Bank (12 projects), Asian Development Bank (three projects), DFID (three projects), and one each projects funded by AIIB, France, IFAD, Korea, China, and JICA.