Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Mass Exodus: Why Are Millions of Indians Leaving India?

"Leave India! It's High Time!!" screams out a recent Reddit post that has gone viral! The poster who claims to be an Indian entrepreneur warns of impending "terrible economic collapse" with a "massive depreciation of the Indian rupee".

The now-deleted post, written by a user named ‘u/anonymous_batm_an,’ urges high-earning professionals, especially innovators, to leave India for countries with better opportunities and governance, as reported by the Times of India. It recommends the UAE or Thailand as alternative destinations . The sentiments expressed in the post are already resonating with a large number of Indians. The non-resident Indians now constitute the world's largest overseas diaspora. Every year, 2.5 million Indians leave their country of birth, making India the nation with the highest annual number of emigrants in the world.

New Company Registrations in Dubai. Source: Khaleej Times

Indian investors continued to top the list of new non-Emirati companies joining the Dubai Chamber of Commerce during the first nine months of 2024. A total of 12,142 new Indian companies joined the chamber during the period, data showed on Monday, according to the Khaleej Times. Pakistan ranked second on the list with 6,061 new companies joining between Q1-Q3 2024, while Egypt followed with 3,611 new companies registering as members of the chamber. The number of new Syrian companies joining the chamber during the first nine months of the year reached 2,062, placing the country fourth among the top nationalities of new member companies.

India is losing its best and brightest to the West, particularly to the United States, at an increasingly rapid pace. A 2023 study of the 1,000 top scorers in the 2010 entrance exams to the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) — a network of prestigious institutions of higher learning based in 23 Indian cities — revealed the scale of the problem. Around 36% migrated abroad, and of the top 100 scorers, 62% left the country, according to a report in the science journal Nature. Nearly two-thirds of those leaving India are highly educated, having received academic or vocational training. This is the highest for any country, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Example of The Great Indian Brain Drain. Source: Boston Political Review

Brain drain is defined as the loss of precious human capital of a nation. It is a “consequence of an education system designed for ‘selecting’ the best and brightest in an economy that is still too controlled and cannot create opportunities for its best and brightest”, according to Indian economist Shruti Rajagopalan. High-profile examples of India's human capital loss include Satya Nadella (Microsoft), Sundar Pichai (Google), Shantanu Narayen (Adobe), Arvind Krishna (IBM) and Ajay Banga (World Bank).

Foreign-Born STEM Workers in America. Source: American Immigration Council

Growing number of Indian students are going abroad for higher education each year and 90% of them never return home after completing their studies. In 2022, the number of Indian students leaving the country for higher education reached a six-year high of 770,000. And a 2021 report estimated that around two million Indian students would be studying abroad by 2024.

Many developing countries are experiencing brain drain. But India is losing its best brightest at a much faster rate than others. Some call it "The Great Indian Brain Drain". This is the reason why Indians in the United States are the best educated and the highest earning group. In a recently published book titled "The Other One Percent", authors Sanjoy Chakravorty, Devesh Kapur and Nirvikar Singh explain this phenomenon.

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PakAlumni Social Network

Friday, December 20, 2024

US Missile Sanctions: Are Pakistanis Really Developing ICBMs?

The outgoing Biden Administration has announced additional new sanctions against Pakistani entities working on the nation's missile program. The latest round of sanctions includes the Islamabad-based National Development Complex (NDC) and three Karachi-based organizations: Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, Affiliates International and Rockside Enterprise. Explaining the decision, US Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer accused Islamabad of having developed "increasingly sophisticated missile technology, from long-range ballistic missile systems to equipment that would enable the testing of significantly larger rocket motors.” “Candidly, it’s hard for us to see Pakistan’s actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States,” Finer added, as reported by Reuters news agency.

"They don't acknowledge our concerns. They tell us we are biased," said the second U.S. official, adding that Pakistani officials have wrongly implied that U.S. sanctions on their missile program are intended "to handicap their ability to defend against India."

Finer said senior U.S. officials, including himself, who he said repeatedly have raised concerns about the missile program with top Pakistani officials. Washington and Islamabad, he noted, had been "long-time partners" on development, counter-terrorism and security. "That makes us question even more why Pakistan will be motivated to develop a capability that could be used against us. If those trends continue, Finer said, "Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States." The number of nuclear-armed states with missiles that can reach the U.S. homeland "is very small and they tend to be adversarial," he continued, naming Russia, North Korea and China, according to Reuters.

"So, candidly, it's hard for us to see Pakistan's actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States," Finer said.

His speech came a day after Washington announced a new round of sanctions related to Pakistan's ballistic missile development program, including for the first time against the state-run defense agency that oversees the program.

Pakistan has denounced the new US sanctions on the country’s ballistic missile program as “discriminatory” and accused the Biden administration of putting the region’s peace and security at risk. Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday warned in a statement that the sanctions “have dangerous implications for strategic stability of our region and beyond”.

U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on X that the U.S. had “been clear and consistent about our concerns” over such weapons proliferation and that it would “continue to engage constructively with Pakistan on these issues.” Pakistani officials have cast doubt on US allegations that targeted businesses were involved in weapons proliferation because previous sanctions “were based on mere doubts and suspicion without any evidence whatsoever”, according to media reports. The sanctions are also opposed by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the party of Pakistan’s imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

A.K. Chishti, a Pakistani analyst, believes that the US sanctions are aimed at disrupting Pakistan's efforts to build a second-strike capability. "The US sanctions against Pakistani firms, particularly those tied to Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC) and other defense contractors, appear to be a calculated attempt to slow down Pakistan's nuclear missile advancements", says Chishti. "These companies are central to Pakistan’s missile program, including efforts to develop submarine-launched nuclear platforms, which are critical to second-strike capability", he wrote in an article published by The Wire Pakistan.

My own view is that Pakistan is developing heavier rocket engines for satellite launch capability to compete with India in space. Space is becoming increasingly important for national security and Pakistan has a lot of catching up to do to remain relevant.

It also appears that the events of the past year in the Middle East have reinforced the view among the peoples of many developing countries, including Pakistan, that the only law that matters in today's world is the "Law of the Jungle" in which "Might is Right". This is causing them to take their national security much more seriously than in the past. They are all looking to find ways to deter against wanton aggression and to defend themselves in the event of arracks.

Will the US pressure on Pakistan work? The following two quotes answer this question:

1. "The Pakistani establishment, as we saw in 1998 with the nuclear test, does not view assistance -- even sizable assistance to their own entities -- as a trade-off for national security vis-a-vis India". US Ambassador Anne Patterson, September 23, 2009

2. “Pakistan knows it can outstare the West." Pakistani Nuclear Scientist Pervez Hoodbhoy, May 15, 2011

Rabia Akhtar, a visiting scholar at Harvard Kennedy School’s Managing the Atom project, believes that targeting specific entities within Pakistan’s missile development framework ignores its indigenous capabilities. She says that this self-sustained program operates independently of external influences and is not easily swayed by coercive tactics. She also contends that such measures fail to address broader regional security dynamics while neglecting the provocations that drive Pakistan’s deterrence posture.

Saturday, December 14, 2024

Canada Gets Tough on Foreign Students Amid Mounting Tensions With India

The Canadian government has recently taken a series of steps to cut the number of international students studying in Canada. This is believed to be related to the extremely hostile Indian government response to Canadian allegations that the Indian officials ordered assassinations of Sikh activists in Canada. There are now new reports that Ottawa has asked Indian students to resubmit their documents for review. Earlier, Canada made a decision to end the fast-track visa process, known as Student Direct Stream (SDS), for students coming from India, Pakistan and a few other developing countries. Meanwhile, US F-1 visas granted to Indian students fell 38% between January and September of 2024.

Sikh Activist Assassinations:

The United States and Canadian governments are alleging that Indian government agents plotted assassinations of Sikh dissidents on their soils. Their investigations paint a shocking picture of how recklessly Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government operates.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) and Home Minister Amit Shah

The criminal charges announced by Washington and Ottawa are backed by Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, the remaining three countries that make up the 5-nation intelligence sharing alliance known as the Five Eyes. Revelations made by the US Justice Department and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) indicate that the authorization for Sikh assassinations came directly from the top Indian government officials, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's right-hand man Amit Shah. International criminal gang leader Lawrence Bishnoi is listed among the people tasked with carrying out the murders. These allegations are based on intelligence gathered from multiple communication intercepts among Indian government officials in New Delhi and Indian diplomats posted in Canada.

Canadian Student Visa Approval Rates. Source: ApplyAbroad

Canada's Student Direct Stream:

As of 2024, there are 427,000 Indian students studying in Canada, surpassing the 337,630 Indian students enrolled in the United States, according to media reports. The SDS was very popular in India, with nearly four in five Indian students applying for their Canadian study permit through the program.

Until recently, foreign students who applied for a Canadian study permit through the SDS saw a significant approval rate advantage over regular stream applicants in every emerging market. In 2022, India was the biggest beneficiary of SDS with 78% of applicants approved, followed by Pakistan 44%, Vietnam 22%, and China 7%.

Canada's decision to end SDS will hurt future student visa applicants from more than a dozen countries, including Pakistan.

Demand to Resubmit Documents:

Indian students in Canada are deeply concerned after receiving notices from Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) requesting the resubmission of critical documents, including study permits, visas, academic records, attendance, and part-time work details. Many of these students hold visas valid for up to two more years, causing fear.

International Student Visa Cap:

The Canadian government has also decided to reduce the number of student visas granted each year. The international student visa cap for 2025 and 2026 is 437,000, which is a 10% reduction from the 2024 target of 485,000. It has also increased the cost of living requirement for international students from C$10,000 to C$20,635 a year.

Indian F-1 Student Visas in US:

US F-1 visas granted to Indian students fell 38% between January and September of 2024. According to the US State Department, 64,008 F-1 visas were granted to Indian students, a significant drop from the 1,03,495 issued during the same period in 2023. This number is also reportedly lower than the 93,181 issued in 2022 and marginally higher than the 65,235 recorded in 2021, marking the lowest post-pandemic level, according to Indian media reports.

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Sunday, December 8, 2024

Russian Hackers Steal Indian Military Secrets From Pakistani Cyber Spies

Hackers linked to Russian intelligence have stolen Indian military data from cyber spies believed to be working on behalf of the Pakistani state, according to an assessment by Microsoft researchers. All those involved are part of what are known as "advanced persistent threat" (APT) organizations in their respective countries. TechTarget defines "Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) as "a prolonged, targeted cyber attack that involves an attacker gaining and maintaining unauthorized access to a network for an extended period". The goal of an APT is to steal sensitive data, rather than cause damage to the network or infect systems with malware. It is harder to defend against such intrusions than to attack.

In a recent blog post, Microsoft researchers have discussed how Russian FSB's Secret Blizzard APT has breached a Pakistan-based threat activity cluster called Storm-0156 ATP to steal India's military secrets gathered by Pakistani intelligence. Since then, researchers from Microsoft and Black Lotus Labs say, Secret Blizzard has been able to leech off of Storm-0156's cyberattacks, accessing sensitive information from various Afghani government agencies and Indian military and defense targets.

State actors in India and Pakistan are known to target each other for cyber espionage. Last year, the Pakistani government warned its officials about a number of India-linked APT groups, including PatchWork and Sidewinder, targeting Pakistan. Some Indian ATP groups also target China.

Some Pakistani APTs targeting India have also been revealed in recent years. Among these are SideCopy and Transparent Tribe.

Given the cyberthreat landscape in South Asia, Pakistan is trying to improve its cybersecurity posture, steering $18 million in funding for cybersecurity research and adding $36 million to its budget to develop better cybersecurity technical capabilities.

International Telecommunications Union (ITU) has ranked Pakistan (score 96.69/100) among top tier countries for cybersecurity in 2024. Out of a maximum score of 20, Pakistan received 20 for legal measures, 18.21 for technical measures, 20 for organization measures, 20 for capacity development and 18.48 for cooperative measures, according to the Global Cybersecurity Index 2024 report released by the ITU.

Pakistan Cybersecurity Scores 2024. Source: ITU

Pakistan's tier one cybersecurity ranking is a big improvement from its 79th rank (score 64.88 from 100) it got in the cybersecurity ranking by the ITU in 2020. Four years ago, Pakistan scored 15.97 on legal measures, 12.26 on technical measures, 11.01 on organizational measures, 17.25 on capacity development and 8.38 on cooperative measures.

Increasing penetration and rapid growth of the Internet user base in Pakistan has brought in a lot of user complaints of bullying and fraud, necessitating government action, including new legislation and capacity building to fight cyber crimes.

Pakistan Telecom Indicators as of July 2024. Source: PTA

In 2018, Pakistan launched its National Center for Cyber Security (NCCS) as a joint project of Higher Education Commission (HEC) and the Federal Planning Commission. The Center includes several Research and Development (R&D) Labs at Pakistani universities. These universities have been given the mandate to establish NCCS affiliated Labs in different specialties of cybersecurity under the Center's secretariat. Earlier this year, Pakistan's economic coordination committee (ECC), a ministerial level body, allocated $36 million for work on cybersecurity measures.

Like many other nations, the cybersecurity threats in Pakistan include hacking, identity theft, cyber-bullying, cyberstalking, spoofing, financial frauds, digital piracy, viruses and worms, malicious software, money laundering, denial of service attacks, electronic terrorism, vandalism, and pornography.

Pakistan has passed a cybercrime bill and established a National Response Center for Cyber Crime (NR3C). NR3C has expertise in Digital Forensics, Technical Investigation, Information System Security Audits, Penetration Testing and Training. Since its inception, it has been involved in capacity building in various departments including Police, Intelligence, Judiciary and Prosecutors. Cyber Scouts is the latest initiative of NR3C, in which, selected students of different private/public schools are trained to deal with computer emergencies and increasing awareness of cyber threats amongst their fellow students, teachers and parents.

Sunday, December 1, 2024

IDEAS 2024: Pakistan Defense Industry's New Drones, Missiles and Loitering Munitions

The recently concluded IDEAS 2024, Pakistan's Biennial International Arms Expo in Karachi, featured the latest products offered by Pakistan's defense industry. These new products reflect new capabilities required by the Pakistani military for modern war-fighting to deter external enemies. The event hosted 550 exhibitors, including 340 international defense companies, as well as 350 civilian and military officials from 55 countries.

Pakistani defense manufacturers highlighted their latest products, including armed UAVs, air-launched cruise missiles, smart munitions and main battle tanks. A Pakistani defense official said a large number of memoranda of understanding (MOUs) were signed with foreign military officials which could potentially lead to $36 billion in future sales.

Pakistan Shahpar III UAV. Source: @ZARRAR3D

Pakistan's state-owned defense conglomerate Global Industrial & Defense Solutions (GIDS) displayed a new medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) – Shahpar III – at the IDEAS 2024 which was held at the Karachi Expo Center from November 24 to 27, 2024. Shahpar III features longer endurance, weapon carrying capacity, and service ceiling over the earlier platforms in the Shahpar family of UAVs. The Shahpar III will have a maximum take-off weight of 1,650 kg and can carry multiple weapons on six underwing hardpoints. It will feature domestically developed avionics and be equipped with a dual-redundant flight control computer (US MIL-STD-1553 architecture), enhancing the aircraft's reliability, according to Jane's Defense.

Sarkash Kamikaze Drone On Display at IDEAS 2024. Source: Global Defense Agency

GIDS also introduced a new Kamikaze (suicide) drone "Sarkash" at the event. The drone has a maximum range of 1,000 km, endurance of over 2 hours, a 50 kg warhead, and a total weight of 175 kg, powered by a turbojet engine. GIDS is also working on the Sarkash-1, a long-range loitering munition.

Pakistan's Blaze Loitering Munitions. Source: Quwa

GIDS also unveiled the Blaze Series of loitering munitions, including Blaze 25, Blaze 50, and Blaze 75 at IDEAS 2024. The lightest of the series, the 25 kg Blaze 25 is ideal for short-range anti-tank operations with a range of 75 km and an endurance of 60 minutes, leaving minimal acoustic and thermal signature thanks to its electric propulsion system, according to OVD. In contrast, the Blaze 50, with its 50 kg weight, 180 km range, and 20 kg warhead, is an intermediate solution for medium-range attacks and reconnaissance missions. Designed for strategic, long-range engagements, the Blaze 75, the heaviest and most powerful model, boasts a 500 km range and a 30 kg warhead. It is powered by a gasoline engine for long-term endurance.

Azb-81 LR Small Diameter Bomb. Source: Quwa

Qaswa Industries showcased its AZB-81LR Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) at IDEAS 2024. It is a stand-off weapon (SOW) with a range of 200 km. The precision-guided munition has a 250 lbs weight and has a standoff attack range of 200 kilometers, with an imaging infrared (IIR) seeker, according to defense publication Quwa.

Quwa also reported on a new Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) displayed at Expo. Using a stealthy low-observable (LO) airframe, the Rasoob-250 offers a range of 350 km with a cruising speed of Mach 0.7 and accuracy of within 5 m CEP (circular error probable). Including a booster, it has a total mass of 285 kg, with the semi-armor piercing warhead taking up 75 kg. It can be launched from drones, helicopters, and maritime patrol aircraft (MPA).

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) publicly revealed for the first time a model of the next generation of its Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC)/Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC) JF-17 ‘Thunder' fighter aircraft. Known as the JF-17 PFX (Pakistan Fighter Experimental), the model was displayed at the event in Karachi. Pakistani officials at IDEAS 2024 described the JF-17 PFX as a 4.5-plus generation twin-engine fighter aircraft. They also said that development of the type is expected to be completed before the end of the decade, according to Jane's.