Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Friday, February 27, 2026

India-Israel Axis Threatens Peace in South Asia

The bonhomie between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, an indicted war criminal, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, accused of killing thousands of Muslims, was on full display this week in Israel. Both leaders committed to supporting the Afghan Taliban regime which is accused of facilitating cross-border terrorist attacks by the TTP in Pakistan. Mr. Modi was warmly welcomed by Mr. Netanyahu as a "brother". “You are a great friend of Israel, … Narendra. You are more than a friend. You are a brother,” Netanyahu told Modi when both leaders addressed the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem on Wednesday. In response, Mr. Modi said, “India stands with Israel, firmly, with full conviction, in this moment, and beyond" He was silent on the continuing genocide in Gaza, where the Israeli military has killed more than 72,000 Palestinians since October 2023. Currently, India is Israel’s largest weapons buyer, sending billions of dollars into Israel’s defense industry each year. In 2024 as Israel waged its war on Gaza, Indian weapons firms sold Israel rockets and explosives that killed Palestinians, according to an Al Jazeera investigation.

Indian PM Modi Hugs Israeli PM Netanyahu at Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv. Source: AP

In October 2023, Mr. Modi became the first foreign leader to call Mr. Netanyahu and offer his full support to Israel after the Hamas terrorist attack in Israel. He tweeted that he was "shocked by the news of terrorist attacks in Israel", adding that "We stand in solidarity with Israel at this difficult hour". This tweet was posted immediately after the Hamas militants' unprecedented attack on Israel by air, land and sea. Modi's critics have noted that he has yet to tweet any condemnation of months-long killings of his fellow countrymen in Manipur which are continuing unabated. Nor has he issued any similar condemnation of the long and brutal Israeli military occupation of Gaza and the West Bank. To those who know Modi, his reaction makes sense given the similarities between Modi and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Both leaders are extreme right-wing divisive politicians. Modi is a Hindu Supremacist and Netanyahu is a Jewish Supremacist. Both have a long history of murdering large numbers of Muslims living under their rule. Both are pursuing settler colonial policies; Modi in Kashmir and Netanyahu in Palestine.

More Americans Than Indians Have Negative Views Israel. Source: Pew

Meanwhile, the polls indicate that more Americans (53%) than Indians (29%) have negative view of Israel. Most Indians, particularly Hindu Nationalists, have suffered from what Shashi Tharoor calls "India's Israel Envy". Here's an excerpt of Tharoor's piece published in "Project Syndicate" in January 2009:

"Yet, when Indians watch Israel take the fight to the enemy, killing those who launched rockets against it and dismantling many of the sites from which the rockets flew, some cannot resist wishing that they could do something similar in Pakistan. India understands, though, that the collateral damage would be too high, the price in civilian lives unacceptable, and the risks of the conflict spiraling out of control too acute to contemplate such an option. So Indians place their trust in international diplomacy and watch, with ill-disguised wistfulness, as Israel does what they could never permit themselves to do".

In a piece titled "The Settler Colonial Alliance of India and Israel" published in The Nation, Indian journalist Deeksha Udupa interviewed Azad Essa, author of “Hostile Homelands” – The new alliance between India and Israel". Here's what Essa told Udupa:

"Kashmir is a perfect example of another region being turned into a sort of testing ground (for Israeli weapons and methods). Both India and Israel already share many tactics. They both attack journalists and criminalize civil society. They both exercise collective punishment on Palestinians and Kashmiris. They both maim protesters. In Palestine, protesters are shot in the limbs. In Kashmir, protesters are blinded by lead pellets. Israeli drones, sensors, surveillance, and machine guns are all there, and Israeli methods of controlling the population have long existed in Kashmir—so much so that India is now producing some of these Israeli weapons in factories across India.".

Azad Essa argues that the Israeli occupation of Palestine has served as a model that Indians are replicating in Kashmir. He says that Israeli weapons, developed and field tested on Palestinians, have been used in Kashmir. Here are a couple of excerpts from his book "Hostile Homelands: The New Alliance Between India and Israel": :

"So how did India, which once considered Zionism a form of racism, become Israel’s number one weapons trade buyer, accounting for 42% of Israel’s arms exports since Modi came to power in 2014?* How did India, the first non-Arab state to recognize the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and one of the leaders of the Non-Aligned Movement that opposed colonialism and apartheid, simultaneously maintain its colonial occupation of Kashmir since 1947 and metamorphose into extolling Israel’s settlements as a model to colonize Kashmir with its own Indian settlers?"

"In the days leading to August 5, 2019 and in the weeks and months to come, Kashmir became a site of unfathomable cruelty. Thousands of Kashmiris were detained; pro-India politicians were placed under house arrest, pro-freedom leaders as well as minors were rounded up and thrown in jail. Young boys were shipped off to Indian prisons 1,500km away in Agra and Varanasi. Foreign journalists and international human rights groups were banned from access to Kashmir. The region was placed under a complete communication blackout. Cellular phones, Internet, landline services, and even the postal services were dismantled. News traveled by word of mouth. Journalists compressed photos and video onto memory cards and smuggled them out with passengers en route to Delhi. Schools, offices, banks, and businesses were closed for months. Life came to a standstill".

Here's India's JNU Professor speaking about illegal Indian occupation of Kashmir, Manipur and Nagaland:

https://youtu.be/KWp1E8xrY5E

Thursday, February 19, 2026

Modi's AI Spectacle: Chaos and Deception in New Delhi

The India AI Impact Summit 2026, held at Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi, has been marred by chaos, confusion and deception. The events on the ground have produced unintended media headlines for India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi who wants to be seen as the "vishwaguru" (teacher of the world) in the field of artificial intelligence as well. First, there was massive chaos on the opening day, with long lines and sudden unannounced evacuation of exhibitors and attendees from the show floor for several hours. This, the Indian government said, was done for "VIP" security, a euphemism for Mr. Modi's "photo op" as he walked the venue halls alone for the benefit of the cameras for self-promotion. Mr. Modi then declared that "India is not just a part of the AI revolution, but is leading and shaping it". To support such claims, an Indian University presented a "robodog" bought from China as its "innovation", a blatant lie that was immediately caught by people on the social media, leading to the expulsion of the institution from the show.

5-Layer AI Stack

Let's examine Mr. Modi's claim to be "leading and shaping" the AI revolution. The artificial intelligence technology is a 5-layer stack, consisting of energy, AI chips, infrastructure, AI models and applications. Only two nations, the United States and China, have their own full 5-layer stacks. It's hard to see India as leading in any one of these layers.

Currently, the AI space is dominated by China, the US and a handful of hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, etc. Any country wanting to jump on the AI bandwagon has to choose between the American and Chinese giants. Bloomberg put it best as follows:

"This, fundamentally, is a matter of sovereignty: Whether a nation’s AI systems can be independent of foreign authority. That danger was showcased in 2024, when members of Australia’s UniSuper pension fund had access to their accounts cut off due to a Google cloud misconfiguration. In October, Amazon.com Inc.’s cloud services — the world’s largest — also suffered a major shutdown, damaging its reputation".

Strict security restrictions at the Indian AI summit caused significant limitations on carrying personal items, including laptops and other electronic devices. In spite of such "strict security", some participants reported their exhibits and personal items stolen at the event. The fact that only cash was accepted for food and other services at the venue for the AI Summit makes a mockery of the Modi government's hype about India's digital public infrastructure (DPI).

India's Galgotias University of Uttar Pradesh Showed Chinese Robodog as its Own

There is a significant presence of Americans at the AI Summit in New Delhi. Major "hyperscalers" like Anthropic, Google and OpenAI and Microsoft executives are all attending. The American agenda at the conference was put very succinctly by Sriram Krishnan, Senior White House Policy Advisor on Artificial Intelligence, who said, "...We want to make sure that the world uses the American AI stack...We also want the world to use our AI model...We want all our allies, including India, to leverage our AI infrastructure."

Major US technology firms have announced plans to build large multi-gigawatt AI data centers in India that make enormous demands on energy and water for powering and cooling the energy-hungry beasts. They are facing strong resistance in US cities and towns because of concerns that they will divert precious water and power, increase the rates they have to pay and cause pollution. India appears to be welcoming them for the investment they bring, in spite of significant health and safety concerns. But the Americans will not guarantee "data sovereignty" to the Indian government for Indian consumers' data stored in these data centers.

President Donald Trump has recently scrapped greenhouse gas emission regulations to enable the use of fossil fuels to power AI data centers in the United States. But the local opposition by cities and towns continues to gather steam.

RAAST: Pakistan's Instant Payment System

Pakistan to Develop Urdu Large Language Model (LLM)

Algorithm: Origins of Artificial Intelligence in Islamic Age

Digital Pakistan 2022: Broadband Penetration Soars to 90% of 15+ Population

STEM Enrollment in Pakistan Exceeds One Million

Digital Public Infrastructure in Pakistan

Generative AI Buzz in Pakistan

Is Pakistan Ready for the AI Revolution?

Growing Presence of Pakistani Women in Science and Technology

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Wednesday, February 11, 2026

India-Pakistan Cricket Match: The Biggest Single Event in the World of Sports

Why did Pakistan's decision to boycott the India-Pakistan match in solidarity with Bangladesh in this year's T20 World Cup send shockwaves around the world? And why did it trigger the International Cricket Council's and other cricket boards' urgent efforts to persuade Pakistan to return to the match? The reason has a lot to do with its massive financial impact, estimated to be as much as $500 million in this tournament alone. The ICC projects an average annual revenue of roughly $600 million in the current cycle from 2024 to 2027. The international cricketing body calls India, England and Australia "The Big Three" in the current revenue sharing formula. The reality is that India and Pakistan are "The Big Two" in terms of their revenue contributions from ICC events.

The current dispute arose when the ICC, currently headed by the Indian Home Minister Amit Shah's son Jay Shah, replaced Bangladesh by Scotland in the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup after it refused to play their matches in India, citing security concerns. The Bangladesh Cricket Board (BCB) demanded a move to Sri Lanka, but the ICC rejected this, finding no credible threat, and formally removed Bangladesh from the tournament on January 24, 2026. Pakistan jumped in at this point to show solidarity with Bangladesh in its right to refuse to play in India based on its perception of security threat to its players. This forced the ICC to visit Pakistan to end its boycott based on assurances that Bangladesh will not be penalized for the current T20 tournament in terms of denial of its share of the ICC revenue. Bangladesh was also guaranteed hosting rights to an ICC event between now and 2031.

India-Pakistan cricket matches consistently draw the biggest crowds and the largest TV viewerships than any other single sporting event anywhere. The 2025 Champions Trophy match between India and Pakistan set new digital records with 602 million viewers on JioHotstar. Compare this with the 2026 US Super Bowl match that was seen by 125 million people.

The urgency with which the international sports body addressed it clearly established the massive leverage Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) has in negotiating the terms of its participation in the ICC international tournaments. It also showed that Pakistan has not yet fully exercised this leverage to get a larger share of the ICC revenue. Currently, Pakistan is the fourth-largest recipient from the International Cricket Council (ICC), receiving a 5.75% share of the total revenue, which amounts to approximately $35–38 million annually under the 2024-27 cycle. India receives 38.5% of the ICC, the highest of all members, followed by England's 6.9% and Australia's 6.25%. Other full members receive 2-5% each while all the associate members together get 11%.

If left unresolved, the dispute could have major financial ramifications for all of cricket, as the ICC’s $3 billion Indian media rights deal for 2024-27 with JioStar (a joint venture of Viacom18 and Disney Star) is largely predicated on India facing Pakistan every year in a global tournament, meaning each one is worth roughly $500m, according to The Guardian newspaper. Any reduction in the value of the ICC’s media rights, or a rebate from the current deal, would have major ramifications for all member nations of the ICC (International Cricket Council).

Related Links:

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Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Can Pakistan's JF-17 Become Developing World's Most Widely Deployed Fighter Jet?

Worldwide demand for the JF-17 fighter jet, jointly developed by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (CAIG), is surging. It is attracting buyers in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. At just $40 million a piece, it is a combat-proven flying machine with no western political strings attached. It has enormous potential as the lowest-cost 4.5 generation fighter jet featuring AESA radar, enhanced electronics, and superior weapons systems.

Pakistan PFX Concept Fighter. Source: Raksha Anirveda

In addition to the Pakistan Air Force, it is currently deployed by the air forces of Azerbaijan, Myanmar and Nigeria. Multi-billion dollar orders are in the pipeline from several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Libya and Sudan. Bangladesh is reportedly negotiating to purchase JF-17s in the near future. These orders are not just one-time purchases; they include service and training contracts, as well as spare parts and future upgrades. The US-based business publication Bloomberg recently reported: "After Pakistan said it used the jets to great effect in its brief conflict with India last year, at least five countries have expressed interest in buying them. That sudden demand may put the country’s defense industry in a crunch". So the question now is: Can Pakistan deliver?

Currently, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) has the capacity to manufacture up to 20 JF-17s per year, sufficient to fill the orders from the Pakistan Air Force. It uses a Pakistani airframe, Chinese-made KLJ-7A AESA radar and Russian Klimov RD-93 turbofan engine. Additional capacity is being added at PAC to meet rapidly growing demand. A Chinese aviation expert told China's Global Times that this could be a "sweet problem" for Pakistan, as backed by strong order demand, the country's aviation industry is expected to develop rapidly, and potential capacity constraints are ultimately not a true concern given China's support for Pakistan in manufacturing this type of fighter jet.

The JF-17 is opening doors for Pakistan’s defense industry. The country is emerging as a major arms supplier to developing countries in Asia and Africa. Talks underway with at least 13 countries for JF-17 jets, drones and weapons, with several negotiations at an advanced stage.

Azerbaijan, Myanmar, Nigeria and Sudan have all made significant arms purchases from Pakistan in recent years. Azerbaijan expanded its order for JF-17 Thunder Block III multi-role fighter jets from Pakistan from 16 to 40 aircraft. The recent order extends a 2024 contract worth $1.6 billion to modernize Baku’s airborne combat fleet to $4.6 billion. This makes Azerbaijan the largest export customer of the Pakistan-made warplane. Bangladesh is negotiating purchase of up to 32 JF-17 Thunder Block III aircraft from Pakistan.

In the Middle East Pakistan has orders to supply JF-17s to Libya and Saudi Arabia. In a deal with Libya, Pakistan will sell over two dozen JF-17 fighter jets and 12 Super Mushak trainer aircraft used for basic pilot training. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are in negotiations to convert about $2bn of Saudi loans into a deal to buy JF-17 fighter jets, according to Reuters.

In Africa, Pakistan has recently signed a $1.5 billion contract to supply combat drones and military trainer aircraft to Sudan. The order includes 150 armored vehicles, 220 drones and 10 K-8 Karakorum trainer/light attack aircraft. Earlier in 2021, Pakistan sold three JF-17 Thunder fighter jets and ten Super Mushshak trainer aircraft to Nigeria in a deal worth nearly $200 million. From 2018 to 2021, Pakistan sold 11 JF-17 Thunder Block I aircraft to Myanmar.

Air forces of about a dozen developing nations are buying and deploying Pakistani made aircrafts. The reasons for their choice of combat-tested Pakistan manufactured airplanes include advanced BVR (beyond visual range) features, affordability and ease of acquisition, maintenance and training.

Pakistan started developing defense hardware for import substitution to reduce external dependence and to save hard currency. Now the country's defense industry is coming of age to lead the way to high value-added manufactured exports.

Pakistan has unveiled its PFX (Pakistan Fighter Experimental) program as a significant upgrade to its JF-17 joint program with China. The new upgrade will have a number of stealth features ranging from the use of radar-absorbing composite materials and diverterless supersonic inlets (DSI) to internal weapons bay (IWB) which will significantly reduce the aircraft's radar signature. It is targeted for completion by the end of this decade. In addition, the PFX's twin-engine design will improve maneuverability and allow greater payload capacity.

The program is part of Pakistan's broader strategy to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and strengthen the domestic defense industry. Currently, 58% of JF-17 components are manufactured locally by PAC, but Pakistan aims to increase this share to achieve full production autonomy for the PFX. It is not just about the PAF modernization but also about positioning Pakistan as an important player in the global military aviation market.

The PFX is an evolution of a plan that Pakistan announced in 2017 to develop and produce 5th generation fighter planes. It is part of Pakistan Air Force's highly ambitious Project Azm that includes building Kamra Aviation City dedicated to education, research and development and manufacturing of advanced fighter jets, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and weapon systems.

The PAF has already started replacing its aging fleet with the induction of the Chinese J10C fighter jets which are considered 4.5 Gen. The J10-C has stealth features like diverterless supersonic inlets (DSI). Its BVR capability is supported by PL-15 missiles, with an engagement range of up to 200 kilometers, facilitating long-range target engagements.

The PAF has also begun the process of acquiring 5th generation Chinese J35 fighter jets. The delivery of 40 J35 fighters to Pakistan is expected within two years, potentially altering regional dynamics, particularly concerning India.

Wednesday, January 28, 2026

EU-India Trade Deal: "Uncapped" Mass Migration of Indians?

The European Union (EU) and India have recently agreed to a trade deal which includes an MOU to allow “an uncapped mobility for Indian students”, according to officials, allowing Indians greater ease to travel, study and work across EU states. India's largest and most valuable export to the world is its people who last year sent $135 billion in remittances to their home country. Going by the numbers, the Indian economy is a tiny fraction of the European Union economy. Indians make up 17.8% of the world population but contribute only 3.3% of the global GDP. The European Union, on the other hand, has just 5.6% of the global population and produces 17.8% of the world's economic output.

Indian Economy Dwarfed by EU. Source: DW

If finally signed and implemented, this "uncapped mobility" for Indians will probably become the most significant part of the deal. “More than 800,000 Indians are living and actively contributing to the countries of the European Union", according to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The two sides welcomed the conclusion of the India‑EU Comprehensive Framework of Cooperation on Mobility, in line with the national competences of EU Member States and India and domestic legislation of both parties. They applauded the launch of the first pilot European Legal Gateway Office, as a one‑stop hub to provide information and support the movement of workers, starting with the ICT sector.

Indians are currently the seventh-largest migrant group in Germany. Just the talk of "uncapped mobility" from India will trigger a backlash across Europe where far-right parties opposed to all immigration are gaining popularity. There have been high-profile hate incidents against Indians in several European countries recently. While the rise of the AfD (Alternative for Germany) has increased hatred against Indian migrants, the arrival of the far-right in the mainstream political system in Germany has also started a conversation on racism that otherwise would have been swept under the rug.

EU-India Migration Agreement Tweeted by Modi

Undaunted by the anti-immigrant sentiments, the Indian government has quietly signed labor mobility agreements with at least 20 countries over the past half-dozen years — in Europe and Asia, including the Persian Gulf — all with developed economies and most without much history of hiring Indian workers, according to the New York Times. Arnab Bhattacharya, the chief executive of the "Global Access to Talent From India Foundation" think tank, estimates that India could double its current export of 700,000 workers a year to 1.5 million by 2030. His country, he told the NY Times, “has a workforce that should be servicing the world and not just India.” Their real aim is to deal with the ongoing unemployment crisis in India.

EU-India Migration Agreement Tweeted by Modi

Indian economy is not generating enough jobs for the nation's growing working age population. Corporate profits of Indian firms are growing at a much slower pace than the 8.2% GDP growth in its most recent quarter. Net income for Nifty 50 Index firms likely rose 1.1% in the three months through Dec. 31 from a year earlier, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would be the slowest pace in five quarters, weighed down by deteriorating margins for banks. Falling profits and declining currency are causing foreign capital to flee Indian markets. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulled out over $20 billion from Indian equities in 2025, marking a severe, sustained withdrawal that has continued into 2026. Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has seen consecutive monthly outflows, including $1.67 billion in October and $446 million in November 2025. Investment banker Ruchir Sharma wrote about it in a Financial Times op ed titled "India needs to import more capital and export fewer workers". Ruchir wrote: "Most strikingly, corporate revenue normally grows (or shrinks) with the economy — in any country. But last year corporate revenue growth for listed companies in India decelerated to barely half the GDP growth rate"

Over a Million Pakistani University Students Enrolled in STEM Fields

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India's Unemployment Crisis

Top One Percent: Are Hindus the New Jews in America?

Growing Share of Working Age Population in Pakistan

Pakistan Scientific Output is World's Fastest Growing

India's "Great Brain Drain" Accelerating

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Pakistan's Large and Growing Civil Nuclear Program

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Sunday, January 25, 2026

Independent Economists Expose Modi's Fake GDP

Ruling politicians in New Delhi continue to hype their country's economic growth even as the Indian currency hits new lows against the US dollar, corporate profits fall, electrical power demand slows, domestic savings and investment rates decline and foreign capital flees Indian markets. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has questioned India's GDP and independent economists Professors Arun Kumar and Ashoka Modi and investment banker Ruchir Sharma have detailed why the Indian official data can not be trusted. It seems that the BJP-led government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is fast losing credibility by politicizing the civilian bureaucracy and the military brass to project their economic and military failures as successes.

IMF Gives C Grade to India's GDP Data

Beyond the disputed claim of being the "fourth largest economy", the Modi government's failure on the national health and wellness front is also getting more attention. “Air is unbreathable. Water is undrinkable. Food is adulterated. What’s the point of becoming the 4th largest economy?” asked India-American technology entrepreneur Sabeer Bhatia in an X message recently. Gita Gopnath, Harvard professor of economics, said at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week that the economic impact of pollution on India is more severe than the effects of tariffs imposed on the country. “About 1.7 million lives are lost every year in India because of pollution. That’s 18% of the total deaths in India,” Gopinath said, quoting a World Bank study. “Even from an international investor’s perspective … the pollution holds you back.”

Unsafe Drinking Water in India Claimed as 4th Largest Economy. Source: DownToEarth

An international badminton tournament in India has brought global spotlight on the lack of basic hygiene in India. Foreign players complained about dusty floors, dirty courts, bird droppings and unhygienic conditions at the India Open in New Delhi. “I think the floors are dirty. There is a lot of dirt on the courts. There’s bird excrement. There are birds flying around in the arena,” said 28 year-old Denmark women’s singles player Mia Blichfeldt. Andres Antonson, world number three badminton player, withdrew from the India Open Super 750 in New Delhi for the third consecutive year, choosing to pay a $5,000 fine. He cited "extreme" hazardous air pollution in Delhi as the reason for skipping the mandatory tournament, arguing it is not a safe place to hold the event.

The IMF has recently expressed doubts about Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP government's GDP data. It has particularly questioned the government's statistical methodologies, inflation measurement, and the estimates of the informal economy used in reporting the country's gross domestic product. Professor Arun Kumar of Jawaharlal Nehru University believes the IMF's concerns are valid. He thinks the real size of India's economy is only half of what is officially claimed. “The economy is almost 50% wrong – when the government says it’s $3.8 trillion, my estimate is it is probably still $2.5 trillion because we are overestimating the unorganized sector, which is actually declining. This is building up over a period of time,” Kumar told Indian journalist Karan Thapar.

In its recent assessment, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has given a "C" grade to India's national accounts. In particular, the IMF has raised the issue of the government using 2011-12 as the base year as being outdated, the discrepancy between production and consumption data and the use of Wholesale Price Index, and not a Producer Price Index, to deflate many economic activities to derive real GDP from nominal GDP.

Indian Firms Falling Corporate Profits. Source: Bloomberg

Corporate profits of Indian firms are growing at a much slower pace than the 8.2% GDP growth in its most recent quarter. Net income for Nifty 50 Index firms likely rose 1.1% in the three months through Dec. 31 from a year earlier, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would be the slowest pace in five quarters, weighed down by deteriorating margins for banks. Falling profits and declining currency are causing foreign capital to flee Indian markets. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulled out over $20 billion from Indian equities in 2025, marking a severe, sustained withdrawal that has continued into 2026. Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has seen consecutive monthly outflows, including $1.67 billion in October and $446 million in November 2025. Investment banker Ruchir Sharma wrote about it in a Financial Times op ed titled "India needs to import more capital and export fewer workers". Ruchir wrote: "Most strikingly, corporate revenue normally grows (or shrinks) with the economy — in any country. But last year corporate revenue growth for listed companies in India decelerated to barely half the GDP growth rate"

Falling Indian Rupee. Source: Reuters

The source of the biggest error is the way India estimates the informal economy which, including agriculture, accounts for almost 45% of GDP. To do so, India uses the formal sector as a proxy to estimate the performance of the informal sector. But if the two sectors are moving in opposite directions, as has happened after demonetization, GST imposition and the pandemic, you could end up overestimating the unorganized sector.

Indian-American economist Ashoka Mody, author of "India is Broken", has argued that the current unemployment crisis in India is a direct result of the destruction of the informal sector, particularly the mom and pop stores that employed a large number of Indians.

Questions about the veracity of India's official GDP figures are not new. These have been raised by many top economists. For example, French economist Thomas Piketty argues in his best seller "Capital in the Twenty-First Century that the GDP growth rates of India and China are exaggerated. Picketty writes as follows:

"Note, too, that the very high official growth figures for developing countries (especially India and China) over the past few decades are based almost exclusively on production statistics. If one tries to measure income growth by using household survey data, it is often quite difficult to identify the reported rates of macroeconomic growth: Indian and Chinese incomes are certainly increasing rapidly, but not as rapidly as one would infer from official growth statistics. This paradox-sometimes referred to as the "black hole" of growth-is obviously problematic. It may be due to the overestimation of the growth of output (there are many bureaucratic incentives for doing so), or perhaps the underestimation of income growth (households have their own flaws)), or most likely both. In particular, the missing income may be explained by the possibility that a disproportionate share of the growth in output has gone to the most highly remunerated individuals, whose incomes are not always captured in the tax data." "In the case of India, it is possible to estimate (using tax return data) that the increase in the upper centile's share of national income explains between one-quarter and one-third of the "black hole" of growth between 1990 and 2000. "

Saturday, January 17, 2026

US Immigrant Visa Freeze For 75 Countries: Why Pakistan But Not India?

The US State Department has suspended processing of immigrant visas from 75 countries, including Pakistan but not India. This action followed President Donald Trump's social media post that listed, without context, the percentage of immigrant households from these countries that rely on the US government financial assistance. While Mr. Trump’s post singled out immigrants, the fact is that the term “financial assistance” as used by him includes social security and Medicare payments which are entitlements received by all senior citizens, both naturalized and US-born. It listed immigrant households from Bhutan (81.4%), Yemen Arab Republic (75.2%) and Somalia (71.9%) as the top three "Welfare Recipients". It also included Afghanistan (68.1%), Burma (59.2%), Bangladesh (54.8%), Pakistan (40.2%) and China (32.9%). India was not shown on this list. A US State Department statement explained the decision to suspend immigrant visa processing as follows: "President Trump has made clear that immigrants must be financially self-sufficient and not be a financial burden to Americans. The Department of State is undergoing a full review of all policies, regulations, and guidance to ensure that immigrants from these high-risk countries do not utilize welfare in the United States or become a public charge". A look at the detailed data shows that non-citizen immigrants consumed 54% less welfare than native-born Americans.

President Trump's Social Media Post on Welfare Receiving Immigrant Households. Source: X

It is important to understand that the data President Trump shared is for households, not individuals. It includes the entire household as recipients of government assistance even if a single individual in that household receives such assistance. Second, the definition of "welfare recipient" in Trump's data includes all government programs, including the entitlement programs like social security and medicare which all senior US citizens receive. Third, the households on non-immigrant visas which are ineligible for government assistance but are counted in the total number households surveyed for this data. For example, millions of H1B visa holders and foreign students on F-1 visa from India are not eligible for such assistance, resulting in a significantly lower percentage of Indian households receiving government assistance.

The median annual income of Pakistani-American households was $108,100 in 2023, higher than $105,600 for Asian-American households overall. The median annual income of Indian-American households was $151,200 in 2023, the highest among all ethnic groups in America. GCBE1, a visa consultancy, explains why certain groups, such as Indians, do not appear in Trump's list in the following excerpt:

"While the welfare chart provides a snapshot, it does not explain why certain groups appear or how participation is measured. Critics argue that without clear definitions of “welfare” or adjustments for income and immigration status, the data can be easily misinterpreted. Groups with high numbers of legal permanent residents and U.S. citizens in mixed-status households might show welfare usage even if non-citizen members are ineligible. Others point out that immigrant households may include U.S.-born children receiving benefits; yet these metrics are not broken down in the shared data".

Per Capita Welfare Consumption by Native Born vs Immigrants in US. Source: Cato

President Trump's post is part of his larger anti-immigration theme to please his MAGA base. But a Cato Institute study found that all immigrants consumed 21% less welfare and entitlement benefits than native-born Americans on a per capita basis in 2022, based on data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Immigrants were 14.3% of the US population and consumed just 11.9% of all means-tested welfare and entitlement benefits that year. Here's an excerpt of the Cato study:

"The biggest myth in the debate over immigrant welfare use is that noncitizens — which includes illegal immigrants and those lawfully present on various temporary visas and green cards — disproportionately consume welfare. That is not the case. Noncitizen immigrants consumed 54 percent less welfare than native-born Americans. Non-citizens were 7.3 percent of the population and consumed just 3.5 percent of all welfare and entitlement benefits. In total, noncitizens consumed $109.4 billion in benefits in 2022".

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Indian Illegal Immigrants Deported in Handcuffs

Ambassador Kishore Mahbubani: America Does Not Respect India

World Happiness Report: India Among Saddest Nations of the World

Balakot and Kashmir: Fact Checkers Expose Indian Lies

Top One Percent: Are Hindus the New Jews in America?

India in Crisis: Unemployment, Hunger Persist After Waves of Covid

Modi's Blunders and Delusions

India's Israel Envy: What If Modi Attacks Pakistan?

Pakistani-American Average Household Income Estimated At $150,000

Pakistan Navy Modernization

Pakistan's Sea-Based Second Strike Capability

Are Some Pakistanis Feeding Modi's Delusions of Grandeur?

Is the West Unwittingly Helping Modi Realize His Akhand Bharat Hindutva Dream?

Has Pakistan Lost All Wars?

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Indian NSA Doval Urges Young Hindus to Take Revenge on Muslims

In a recent speech to young Hindus in New Delhi, the Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval urged his audience to "avenge history". He talked about the looting and destruction of Hindu temples and many centuries humiliation suffered by Indians. Though he did not specifically say it, there was no doubt in the minds of his audience that he was talking about invaders like Mahmud of Ghazni, an Afghan Muslim ruler, who is said to have destroyed a Hindu temple in Somnath.

Indian Prime Minister Modi (Left) with NSA Ajit Doval

Anti-Muslim rhetoric like Doval’s has made Indian Muslims fear for their lives. It has also put India among top countries with greatest likelihood of mass atrocities, and raised security concerns among India’s neighbors. In its latest warning, the US Holocaust Museum has put three countries scoring higher than India. Myanmar holds the top spot, followed by Chad and Sudan. However, many high-ranking nations including Myanmar and Sudan are already dealing with ongoing mass killings, making India’s position particularly noteworthy as a potential new flashpoint.

For those interested in real history, it is important to understand that eminent Hindu Indian historian Romila Thapar has rejected the Hindu-Muslim framing of the destruction of Somnath. In her book "Somatha", she challenges the simplified story of purely Hindu victims and Muslim invaders, focusing on local Indian sources such as inscriptions, merchant biographies and court epics to reconstruct events. Other sources indicate that several Hindus, including Hindu generals, were part of Ghaznavi's army. Some sources also cite that Arab Muslim traders who had settled in Gujarat during the 8th and 9th century died to protect the Somnath temple against Ghaznavi's Army.

Mughal Emperor Aurangzeb, demonized by Hindu Nationalists, employed several high-ranking Hindu generals, most notably Raja Jai Singh I (of Amber) and Maharaja Jaswant Singh (of Marwar), who served as powerful mansabdars (military commanders) and held significant administrative posts, commanding large forces and participating in key campaigns against rivals like Shivaji Maharaj and Dara Shikoh.

Shivaji Maharaj, held by the Hindu Nationalists as an icon of Hindu resistance against Muslims, was crowned as the king despite opposition from local Brahmins. He had several Muslim generals in his army. In fact, he employed people of all castes and religions, including Muslims.

Hindu kings often attacked and looted temples built by other Hindu kings for the wealth stored inside the idols. Just three years before Ghaznavi's raid on Somnath in 1022, a general under Rajendra I, Maharaja of the Chola empire (848–1279) marched 1,600 kilometers north from the Cholas’ royal capital of Tanjavur. Chola warriors defeated Mahipala, maharaja of the Pala empire (c.750–1161), who was the dominant power in India’s easternmost region of Bengal. The Chola's celebrated their victory by carrying off a bronze image of the deity Shiva, which they seized from a royal temple that Mahipala had patronized. In the course of this long campaign, the invaders also took from the Kalinga Raja of Orissa images of Bhairava, Bhairavi and Kali. These, together with precious gems looted from the Pala king, were taken down to the Chola capital as war booty. This raises the question: Why is Mahmud Ghaznavi demonized but not Rajendra Chola's plunder of Hindu temples?

The real history contradicts Doval's assertion that Hindus have never invaded others, ignoring the fact that an unprecedented number of people were killed in the Kalinga massacre by emperor Ashoka. He also did not mention how the Buddhist and Jain temples were destroyed and Hindu temples built on their ruins. nor did he acknowledge the long-running and ongoing oppression of Hindus by Hindus in the name of caste.

Ajit Doval does not appear to be a serious man worthy of holding the sensitive office of India's national security advisor. He has no sense of history, nor does he understand how damaging his speech is for a diverse country like India. By parroting the divisive Hindutva narrative, Doval has alienated not only Indian Muslims but also India's neighbors. He is a total failure. India's failed national security policy is hurting India and Indians more than anyone else.

Tuesday, January 6, 2026

Pakistan Household Survey HIES 2024-25 Raises More Questions Than It Answers

Recently released HIES 2024-25 household integrated economic survey by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) raises more questions than it answers. For example, it shows that Pakistani households are buying lower amounts of basic food ingredients like wheat, meat and eggs in the last four years, implying that people are eating less to cover other expenses, like electricity and gas. But it doesn't explain why the households have reported significantly lower purchases of these items than production reported recently by the PBS. What is the source of this discrepancy? Is the data flawed? Or, is it missing a new trend toward less home cooking? Is the young urbanized population buying more prepared foods? Are they ordering out more often using ubiquitous food delivery services? Let us try and understand it in more detail.

21% Pakistanis Buy Tandoori Nan. Source: Gallup Pakistan

Data Discrepancy:

There is a significant discrepancy in household data for per capita monthly consumption of basic food ingredients like wheat, meat and eggs. For example, the HIES 2024-25 reports 6.59 Kg of wheat consumption per capita per month, which translates into 79 Kg per person per year. The wheat production data from PBS shows 30 million tons or 120 Kg per capita in 2025. We know that Pakistan did not export wheat last year. So what happened to the 41 Kg per capita difference? It is 30% of the total production reported, too large to be explained away as waste in the system. It was most probably bought by food businesses and eventually consumed by Pakistani households. There are similar discrepancies in meat, eggs and other food data, with reported household consumption being far below production.

Household Food Items Purchase Data. Source: HIES 2024-25

Prepared Foods:

A 2025 Gallup survey revealed that 21% of Pakistanis buy tandoori naan. Pakistan's prepared food market is experiencing robust growth, with the Convenience Food sector valued at $6.91 billion in 2025, projected to grow at 5% annually, driven by Ready-to-Eat (RTE) meals and frozen foods, especially RTE/RTC (Ready-to-Cook) products like frozen snacks. Key trends include rising demand for time-saving, convenient options due to urbanization, growing health consciousness (organic/natural), and dominance by flexible packaging, with online delivery also expanding rapidly.

Urbanization in Pakistan. Source: World Bank

Urbanization:

The World Bank researchers have recently concluded that 88% live in urban areas. Their conclusion is based on satellite imagery and the Degree of Urbanization (DoU) methodology. The official Pakistani figures released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) put the current level of urbanization at 39%. The source of this massive discrepancy is the government's reliance on administrative boundaries rather than population density and settlement patterns, according to the World Bank working research paper titled "When Does a Village Become a Town?".

Ultra-Processed Foods:

Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) like biscuits, sugary drinks, chips, and packaged snacks, are a growing concern in Pakistan. Such foods are contributing to rising obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Obesity causes non-communicable diseases (NCD) which are now among the leading causes of death in Pakistan.

To deal with the obeseity crisis, several Pakistani pharmaceutical companies have started domestic production of generic versions of GLP-1 (Glucagon-Like Peptide-1) drugs Ozempic/Wegovy (Semaglutide) and Mounjaro/Zeptide (Tirzepatide).

Food Delivery Services:

Pakistan's food delivery market is experiencing rapid growth, projected to hit $2.35 billion in 2025, driven by high smartphone penetration, a young urban population, and increased convenience-seeking, with Foodpanda dominating but facing a growing trend of direct restaurant ordering and a demand for diverse, tech-enabled options despite past economic challenges.

Street Food Growth:

With rising urbanization, the street food sector in Pakistan is vibrant and growing. It is crucial for livelihoods and affordable food. Deeply embedded in culture, choices range from savory samosas and chaat to bun kebabs, pakoras, pani puri, and biryani, popular for convenience and taste.

Fast Food Boom:

Pakistan’s fast food industry is experiencing rapid growth, making it the 8th largest fast food market globally. With a large consumer base, the demand for fast food continues to grow, contributing to the economy in significantly. The industry’s annual growth rate stands at 20%, highlighting its rapid expansion and increasing consumer preference for quick-serve meals.

Summary:

The HIES 2024-25 report recently issued by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics implies that Pakistani households are eating less to save money to pay for rising energy bills. I think this is misleading for two reasons: 1. It does not explain why reported household consumption figures are significantly lower than per capita production of these food items and 2. It completely ignores the impact of rapid urbanization that is causing Pakistanis to change their eating habits, such as consuming increasing amounts of prepared foods.

Tuesday, December 30, 2025

Happy New Year 2026: Pakistan's Year 2025 in Review

As we enter the year 2026, it is time to review the year 2025 and wish you all Happy New Year 2026! May it bring peace, prosperity and happiness to all!!

The year 2025 saw Pakistan defeat a brazen Indian attack on its soil, while reviving its economy and fighting increasing terror. Pakistan's successful response to multiple serious challenges in 2025 helped significantly raise its geopolitical profile with improved ties with the United States and stronger relations with its friends in China, Russia and the Middle East. Pakistan’s GDP crossed the $400 billion mark in 2025. The year ended with Pakistani currency stable and the KSE-100, the key Pakistani stock market index, achieving new record highs with over 50% annual return in US dollar terms for investors. Privatization efforts gained steam with the sale of the PIA, the debt-ridden money-losing state-owned national airline, to private Pakistani investors. The political issues between the rulers and the opposition remained unresolved while PTI chief Imran Khan and his wife were sentenced to long jail terms. Taliban and Baloch terrorist groups stepped up their attacks on both civilian and military targets in the country. Pakistan has accused the Afghan Taliban of harboring these terrorist groups with India's backing.

Indian Aggression in May 2025:

On May 7, 2025, the Indian military launched an unprovoked attack on civilian targets in Pakistan after alleging without evidence that the terrorist attack in Pahalgam in the Indian Occupied Kashmir was carried out by groups based in Pakistan. The Indian attack was met with a robust Pakistani response in which multiple Indian fighter jets, including recently acquired Rafales, were shot down, leading to the grounding of the entire Indian Air Force for 48 hours. The fighting was halted within 4 days after mediation by the US President Donald J. Trump.

India's diplomatic efforts to isolate Pakistan by attempting to persuade the international community that Pakistan bore responsibility for Pahalgam failed miserably as the world demanded evidence which New Delhi could not produce. Azerbaijan, China and Turkey stood firmly with Pakistan, while India stood alone. Neither the US nor Russia came to India’s support.

High Optimism in Pakistan for 2026. Source: Gallup International

Pakistan's Geopolitical Gains:

Pakistan's success in what India dubbed Operation Sindoor was widely recognized by independent analysts and international media. President Trump talked about India's losses and a US government report referred to Pakistan's military successes against India.

Pakistan’s arm sales soared as the world learnt how the Pakistani military successfully used its indigenous defense gear, including drones and rockets, in the May conflict with India.

The Chinese celebrated the combat performance of their J-10C fighter jets and PL-15 air-to-air missiles used by the Pakistan Air Force against Indian military jets. Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defense pact with Pakistan after the Israeli Air Force struck in Doha, Qatar and the US government did nothing to help the country that hosts the largest US military base in the region.

Pakistan GDP FY 2008 to FY 2025. Source: PBS and AKD

Pakistan's Economic Revival:

Pakistan's economy stabilized with its currency stability and investor confidence. Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP ) reached $411 billion in June, 2025, rising 6.2% in April-June quarter. It slowed to 3.7% as floods hit parts of the country in the July-September quarter. The key stock index KSE-100 closed at record highs with 52% annual gain in US dollar terms. Large scale manufacturing grew with 8.3% in Oct 2025, driven by automobiles, construction, textiles, and petroleum. About 36,000 new retail trading accounts were opened in the September quarter, compared to 23,600 new registrations just three months ago, according to Topline Securities, a brokerage house in Pakistan. Broad and deep participation in capital markets is essential for economic growth and wealth distribution in any country.

Pakistan Shares Index Performance in 2025. Source: PSX

Pakistani Rupee Performed Better Than Indian/Sri Lankan Currencies in 2025

Pakistan's arms exports soared with multi-billion dollar orders for its fighter jets, trainer aircraft and drones. Azerbaijan, Sudan, Libya and Turkey purchased Pakistan-made defense equipment.

The discovery of rare earth metals, particularly large deposits of antimony, a critical mineral, boosted Pakistan's potential in world trade of critical metals. Antimony's main uses are in flame retardants (as antimony trioxide in plastics, textiles), strengthening alloys (especially with lead for batteries, ammunition, bearings, cable sheathing, pewter), and in semiconductors (diodes, infrared detectors). It's crucial for military tech (night vision, explosives), improves battery performance, and is used in glass (clarifying agent) and ceramics, highlighting its role in critical defense and energy technologies. . The price of antimony trioxide has shot up to around $40,000 per ton — off its peak of more than $60,000 as some users seek alternatives but still substantially higher than $26,000 in September 2024 — as fears about China’s control of the supply chains for metals including antimony have sparked a global race to secure supplies.

Pakistan received commitments of billions of dollars in investments in its large copper and gold deposits. Copper's importance has dramatically increased with growth in electric vehicles, data centers and global power demand.

Pakistan Space Program:

In October 2025, China launched HS-1 satellite for Pakistan, its first hyper-spectral satellite which is equipped with advanced hyper-spectral imaging sensors capable of capturing data across hundreds of narrow spectral bands. The satellite lifted off from China’s Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on a Kinetica-1 rocket. It is expected to boost Pakistan's national capacities in areas such as precision agriculture, environmental monitoring, urban planning, and disaster management. Its high-resolution data will support improved resource management and strengthen Pakistan’s resilience to climate-related challenges.

In addition to the HS-1 satellite, Pakistan has signed a $406 million deal with China’s PIESAT for a constellation of over 20 imaging and communication satellites, a move that signals a profound shift in its strategic posture, according to defense site Quwa. The deal includes a full transfer-of-technology (ToT) for in-country satellite manufacturing. It is poised to provide the Pakistani military with a sovereign, persistent imaging intelligence (IMINT) capability.

Pakistan's First AI Data Center:

Data Vault and Telenor Pakistan launched the nation's first dedicated AI data center in Karachi. It is designed to support startups, researchers, and government agencies with high-performance computing and GPU-as-a-service offerings. It is equipped with more than 3,000 Nvidia's highest performance H100 and H200 GPUs for which the Trump Administration issued export licenses. These GPUs cost from $40,000 to $60,000 each, making the Nvidia chips the biggest chunk of the investment made in this AI data center. Other data centers in Pakistan also support AI workloads but this new data center in Karachi is specially designed for AI. It puts the country on a short list of only a handful of nations with locally hosted AI data centers. Pakistanis rank among the world's top five users of Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools, securing the fourth spot among 21 nations surveyed by the Schwartz Reisman Institute.

Pakistan's Challenges in 2026:

Sustained economic recovery is the key challenge for Pakistan in 2026 and beyond. It is a difficult challenge amid unsettled issues with India and unresolved domestic political problems at home. Opposition leader Imran Khan and his wife have been sentenced to long jail terms by Pakistani courts. This situation, if left unresolved, is likely to continue to be a source of instability and poor economic performance. The other challenge is rising incidents of terror in the country with a 70% increase in terror attacks in 2025. Brute force alone will not resolve these issues. There's a need for talks to reach a political settlement with the Afghan Taliban who are harboring groups like the TTP and BLA that launch cross-border attacks in Pakistan.