Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Pakistan Electricity Consumption Up 21% in Just Two Years

Pakistan is experiencing surging demand for electricity across all of the sectors of its economy. The new demand is being met by rapidly rising deployment of distributed solar, estimated at 38 GW as of June, 2025. In 2025, 44% of solar deployment was residential, followed by industry (26%), agriculture (21%) and commercial users (9%). The expansion of distributed solar has enhanced electrification across the economy, lifting Pakistan's electrification rate to 21.7% in FY2025 from 17% in FY2023, close to the global average of 22%, according to a report by Ember Energy titled "The solarization of Pakistan's energy economy". 


The solar energy revolution in Pakistan is a led by consumers. Driven by soaring electricity costs, unreliable grid infrastructure, and cheap imported solar panels, millions of households and businesses have installed rooftop solar. This rapid transition has transformed the country's energy landscape.  According to the report, Pakistan’s total electricity demand increased by 33 terawatt-hours (TWh) between fiscal years 2023 and 2025. Distributed solar generation alone grew by 36 TWh during the same period, making it the primary driver of electricity demand growth and offsetting declines elsewhere in the power system.


"Pakistan has a thirst for energy, and solar is providing it," said Dave Jones, Chief Analyst at Ember. "Distributed solar is so fast and cheap to build, that it is actually driving up electricity demand."  The newly added solar capacity has saved more than US$12 billion in oil and gas imports by February, 2026, Ember said, as well as enabling growth in the agriculture, industrial and commercial parts of Pakistan’s economy.

The report shows that net metered solar is a “minority” of Pakistan’s current capacity, with far more behind-the-meter and off-grid capacity than registered net metering solar.   Distributed solar has ramped up rapidly. In just two years, 27 GW of distributed solar was installed, the same amount of operating coal, gas and oil plants built in Pakistan ever. Distributed solar is also cheaper — residential solar with a medium battery makes electricity at around PKR 20/KWh, half the PKR 40 price for grid electricity. The government statistics only capture the net-metered part of the electricity. 

During the first nine months of 2025-26 fiscal year, Pakistan’s energy sector saw steady improvement during the first nine months of the current fiscal year, with hydro, renewable and nuclear sources overtaking fossil-fuel-based thermal power in installed generation capacity for the first time, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey for 2025-26. 





Posted by at No comments:
Labels: , , , , , , ,

Friday, June 26, 2026

Pakistani-American Professor Publishes Landmark Genomic Research on Pakistanis

Dr. Danish Saleheen, a Pakistani-American professor at Columbia University, and his fellow researchers have published a comprehensive analysis of 173,303 genomes from Pakistan, one of the largest genomic studies ever conducted in South Asia. This landmark work is upending how scientists understand human genetics and drug development. "South Asians have been severely underrepresented in genome studies—comprising just 2% of global genomic databases despite representing 25% of the world's population," study leader Dr. Saleheen explained. The study is sponsored by Novartis, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, and the Center for Non-Communicable Diseases, Karachi, Pakistan. Its results could fundamentally transform drug discovery. 


The study, published in the journal Nature, has identified knockouts of nearly 6,500 genes—about one third of all protein-coding genes (exomes)—in 34,000 individuals. Cousin marriages are quite prevalent in Pakistan, with half of all marriages occurring between close relatives. Landmark research, including the Pakistan Genomic Resource, highlights how these genetic traits act as both a medical challenge and a massive opportunity for scientific discovery.  

Study of Knockout Genes in Humans vs Mice

What are "knockout genes"? In Pakistan, the study has identified thousands of individuals with naturally missing or "knocked out" or "deleted" genes. Researchers use mice for studying diseases and "knock out" or delete specific genes to study how the deletions impact health and contribute to disease. The problem is that translation of such findings to humans has been difficult, "because mouse genes often have different functions than their human counterparts," Saleheen says. “What’s unique about our Pakistan study is we can go back to participants and conduct comprehensive medical exams to see what kind of effects the gene deletion may have on the individual,” he adds.

The study reveals that South Asian populations carry genetic ancestry components shared with both European and African populations, suggesting that insights gained from the Pakistan Genome Resource (PGR) have broad applicability across multiple human populations. This genetic overlap means that treatments validated in Pakistani populations are likely to benefit diverse ancestry groups globally.

"What we would prefer to do is identify people who are born without working copies of these genes and see if that has an effect on their health."  These "human knockouts" are rare in genome databases like the UK Biobank and the NIH's All of Us, which predominantly contain genomes of people with European ancestry.  "Consequently, many experimental drugs that seem promising in mice fail in clinical trials," Saleheen says. "That costs billions of dollars in losses every year."

Dr. Saleheen is a physician-scientist working at the intersection of human genetics and drug discovery. He has an MBBS degree from Karachi's Aga Khan University and a Ph.D. in Cardiovascular Genomics from Cambridge University.  He is Professor of Medical Sciences and Director of Global Genomics at Columbia University Irving Medical Center, founding Director of the Center for Non-Communicable Diseases (CNCD) in Pakistan, and founding Principal Investigator of the Pakistan Genome Resource (PGR) — one of the world's largest human "knockout" discovery programs (www.cncd.org). He is the author of more than 250 research papers and a 2018 recipient of the Clinical Research Forum's Top 10 Clinical Research Achievement Award, the national prize recognizing the ten most outstanding clinical research accomplishments in the United States that year.

 Related Links:


Posted by at 1 comment:
Labels: , , , , ,

Thursday, June 18, 2026

Does Pakistan's Real GDP Exceed One Trillion US Dollars?

A 2024 joint study of the International Labor Organization and the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Authority  (SMEDA) estimated Pakistan's undocumented economy at $457 billion. While other South Asian nations, particularly Bangladesh and India, do include estimated undocumented GDP figures in their official GDP, Pakistan's official GDP figures do not include such estimates. If the Pakistani government decides to include estimates of the informal economy in its official figures, the country's GDP would jump to $1,059  billion in market exchange terms and over $4,000 billion in PPP terms. 

Pakistan's Total GDP, including Undocumented, Estimated at over $1 Trillion


In 2023 when the ILO-SMEDA study was conducted, Pakistan's official GDP was $340 billion (34% less than the undocumented GDP), bringing the total real GDP for 2023 to $797 billion. Pakistan's official GDP figure for 2025-26 is projected to be $452 billion. Assuming that the undocumented GDP has grown at the same rate as the official GDP, the undocumented GDP today works out to $607 billion, bringing the total GDP (documented and undocumented) to over $1 trillion. In terms of purchasing power parity, the total national economy, including the informal economy, is estimated to be over $4 trillion, which translates to over $16,000 per capita. 

Being the largest employer, Pakistan's undocumented sector acts as a critical shock absorber for the labor force and sustains millions of low-income households. But it also restricts the government tax collection which could be invested in education, healthcare and infrastructure development. There is a temptation in Pakistan to force documentation of the entire economy as the Indian government has attempted to do. However, it will create a mass unemployment problem as many small businesses would be forced to close. 

India is an example of what can go wrong in attempting to bring the informal sector into the tax net too quickly. Demonetization and GST taxes together have decimated the informal sector. But the Indian government continues to significantly overestimate its annual economic growth, particularly by misjudging the size and trajectory of the country's informal (undocumented) sector.  Because of these estimation errors, researchers, including India's former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian, estimate that the absolute level of India's real GDP may be overstated by 22% to 31%. This implies the average citizen's actual standard of living is lower than official data suggests. 

Posted by at 41 comments:
Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Friday, June 12, 2026

Quantum Computing IPO Makes A British Pakistani Billionaire

Ilyas Khan, the British Pakistan founder of Quantinuum, became a billionaire in the company’s IPO on NASDAQ last week. Khan is a pioneer in the revolutionary field of quantum computing which could speed up computing by orders of magnitude. It will have a huge impact in AI and encryption. Dr. Irfan Siddiqui, a Pakistani-American professor of Physics at University of California at Berkeley, is another top expert in quantum computing. 

Ilyas Khan, British Pakistani Founder of Quantinuum. Source: 2023 BLOOMBERG FINANCE LP


Quantinuum raised $1.68 billion in an initial public offering last week, making its founder Illyas Khan a billionaire, according to Forbes. The listing, which is the largest to date for a quantum startup, valued Quantinuum at over $15.6 billion after it sold 28 million shares at $60 each on June 3. Its shares opened at $58 per share on June 9. Khan, who owns around 15% of the company, is now worth $2.2 billion. Quantinuum uses a new type of quantum computer; rather than running on silicon chips, it instead uses ions trapped in place with lasers to execute computations. 

Ilyas Khan is the founder and former CEO of Cambridge Quantum, which merged with Honeywell's quantum division to form Quantinuum, now regarded as a global leader in quantum technologies valued at over $15 billion. He is involved directly in Pakistan's technology sector, where he provides guidance on integrating high-level quantum technologies into Pakistan's growing tech infrastructure.

Dr. Irfan Siddiqui, Professor at UC Berkeley


In quantum computing, a qubit or quantum bit is the basic unit of quantum information—the quantum version of the classical binary bit physically realized with a two-state device. Here's how Dr. Siddiqui explained quantum computing in an interview with Design News:

"For me, any quantum technology, including quantum computing, is something that takes advantage of entanglement. And entanglement is the idea that if you have different pieces of matter and you put them together, they behave as a single unit. So, for example, each of the bits in a classical computer are independent of each other. If you flip one, it doesn't affect the one next to it. In quantum computers all of these bits have correlation with each other so they're all tied together like one big mass. In fact, the number of states that they can occupy is exponentially larger because of these linkages between neighboring elements. Quantum computing is the science of manipulating this entangled set of bits for some particular problem of interest in either fundamental science and computation or to do a simulation of the natural world."

Four of Ten Pakistani-American Founders of Unicorns


Pakistanis' footprint is growing in the western tech ecosystem. Ten Pakistani immigrants are included among founders or co-founders of unicorns in America, according to  a recent study by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP). A unicorn is a startup with a valuation of at least one billion U.S. dollars. Immigrant entrepreneurs of US unicorns are diverse, hailing from 76 different countries. India, with 96 companies, is the leading country of origin for the immigrant founders of U.S. billion-dollar companies. Immigrants from Israel founded the second-most billion-dollar companies with 60, followed by the United Kingdom (47), China (41), Canada (30), Russia (23), France (21), Germany (18), Ukraine (16), Australia (14), Pakistan (10) and Romania (10). Some companies were founded by entrepreneurs from the same country or immigrants from multiple countries.

Related Links: 


Posted by at 4 comments:
Labels: , , , , , ,

Monday, June 8, 2026

Ten Pakistanis Among Unicorn Founders in America

There are ten Pakistani immigrants included among founders or co-founders of unicorns in America, according to  a recent study by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP). A unicorn is a startup with a valuation of at least one billion U.S. dollars. Immigrant entrepreneurs of US unicorns are diverse, hailing from 76 different countries. India, with 96 companies, is the leading country of origin for the immigrant founders of U.S. billion-dollar companies. Immigrants from Israel founded the second-most billion-dollar companies with 60, followed by the United Kingdom (47), China (41), Canada (30), Russia (23), France (21), Germany (18), Ukraine (16), Australia (14), Pakistan (10) and Romania (10). Some companies were founded by entrepreneurs from the same country or immigrants from multiple countries.

Four of Ten Pakistani-American Founders Listed Among Unicorns


Why are Indian entrepreneurs leading the pack of unicorn founders/co-founders in America?  The key reason is that “the great Indian brain drain” is accelerating with the country rapidly losing its best and brightest to the West, particularly the United States. Large presence of the Indian immigrant unicorn founders in America is attributed to the fact that most immigrant founders come to the U.S. as students or H1B workers, categories dominated by Indians. Over 80% of the H1B visas go to Indian applicants. India also leads in sending students to study in US universities. 

Unicorns in America. Source: NFAP

Pakistan, too, is suffering brain drain but not on the same scale as India. Most prominent among Pakistan-origin unicorn founders/cofounders are Karachi-born Sualeh Asif, Lala Moosa-born Qasar Younis, Karachi’s NED University alumnus Rehan Jalil and Pakistani-American serial entrepreneur Zia Chishti. 

26 year old Karachi born Sualeh Asif, cofounder of Cursor (Anysphere) recently joined the list of Forbes Billionaires after Cursor reached a $29.3 billion valuation in November 2025, according to Forbes magazine. 

43 year old Qasar Younis, a Lala Moosa born Harvard-educated Pakistani-American, is the CEO of  Applied Intuition, a physical AI and autonomous vehicle software firm valued at $15 billion. Younis's resume includes his role as Chief Operating Officer of Y-Combinator, a spawning ground for tech giants Dropbox, Airbnb, and Stripe in Silicon Valley, according to Fortune Magazine.

Rehan Jalil, a fellow alumnus of NED University in Karachi, founded AI-powered data privacy and governance platform Security.AI. The startup has now been acquired by Veeam for $1.725 billion.

Zia Chishti is a serial entrepreneur from Pakistan. He founded Afiniti.AI which reached a $1.6 billion valuation back in 2017. founded his first company Align Technology in 1997 in Silicon Valley. It creates clear plastic braces for straightening teeth by using advanced 3-D computer imaging. The technology now trademarked as Invisalign has helped millions of people straighten their teeth for a beautiful smile without enduring the pain and unsightly looks of the traditional steel brackets and wires used in orthodontics. Align Technology is now valued at $10 billion.

The NFAP study found that immigrants have founded or co-founded 59% (455 of 775) of America’s privately held startup companies valued at $1 billion or more. That is an increase from 55% in NFAP reports released in 2018 and 2022. 

Approximately two-thirds (66%) of U.S. billion- dollar companies (unicorns) were founded or cofounded by immigrants or the children of immigrants. Nearly 80% of America’s unicorn companies (privately held, billion-dollar companies) have an immigrant founder or an immigrant in a key leadership role, such as CEO or vice president of engineering. Almost one in four U.S. billion- dollar companies, or 24%, have a founder who came to America as an international student. The research shows the importance of immigrants in cutting-edge companies and the U.S. economy at a time when U.S. immigration policies have grown more restrictive.

The collective value of the 455 immigrant-founded billion-dollar companies is $5.0 trillion, which is more than the total market value of companies listed on stock markets in all but 7 countries, including the UK and Germany, and a demonstration of the wealth-creating power of immigrants. The collective value of immigrant-founded billion-dollar companies rises to over $5.8 trillion if one includes unicorn companies that have gone public since 2016.

Related Links: 

Posted by at 21 comments:
Labels: , , , , , , ,

Tuesday, June 2, 2026

Growing Fan Base of Cockroach Janata Party in India

"Indians live like cockroaches and die like cockroaches", argued Jayant Bhandari in an X post in April this year. "They vote for bottom of the barrel cockroaches as rulers, who rightly treat them as cockroaches", he added, faulting the people of India for this state of affairs. More recently, Indian Supreme Court Chief Justice Surya Kant said during a hearing that certain unemployed youth were "like cockroaches" who enter professions with fake degrees or become social media and RTI activists attacking the system.  Abhijeet Dipke, a 30-year-old Indian graduate of the public relations program at Boston University, picked up on it. He posted on X on May 16: “What if all cockroaches came together?” Dipke created a political party, named it Cockroach Janata Party (CJP), a parody of the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), and established a website that quickly gained tens of millions of followers, according to the New York Times. 

Cockroach Janata Party Logo. Source: CJP Website


Dipke embraced “cockroach” in the party’s name to reinforce the fact that the insect, which arouses visceral disgust in many people, is also nearly indestructible. “What was thrown at them as an insult, now they are carrying it with pride,” he said. 


The group of Indians described by the Indian Chief Justice as "cockroaches" is made up of over 100 million young people aged 15-29 years who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) as estimated by the World Bank. They make up the world's largest NEET population in any country. Such massive numbers threaten the country’s demographic dividend, risking long-term economic stagnation, widening gender disparities, and severe social instability. They represent a massive reservoir of untapped human potential that drains productivity. 

As a result of failed policies and lack of opportunities at home, India is driving its best and brightest to the West, particularly to the United States, at an increasingly rapid pace. A 2023 study of the 1,000 top scorers in the 2010 entrance exams to the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) — a network of prestigious institutions of higher learning based in 23 Indian cities — revealed the scale of the problem. Around 36% migrated abroad, and of the top 100 scorers, 62% left the country, according to a report in the science journal Nature.  Nearly two-thirds of those leaving India are highly educated, having received academic or vocational training. This is the highest for any country, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.


Posted by at 15 comments:
Labels: , , , , ,

Monday, May 25, 2026

Iron Brothers China and Pakistan Celebrate 75 Years of "Unbreakable" Friendship

President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif have met today in Beijing to reaffirm the "unbreakable" bond between their two "iron brother" countries on the 75th anniversary of the establishment of the China-Pakistan diplomatic ties. "No matter how the international landscape may evolve, China will always place priority on the development of China-Pakistan relations in its diplomacy with neighboring countries," he said. Over 7 decades of friendship witnessed Pakistan help bring about the US-China rapprochement that has enabled the Asian giant to grow from international isolation to what President Donald Trump recently declared part of "G2", the exclusive group of two real superpowers in the world today. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's three-day visit to China has seen the signing of multiple agreements to further strengthened strategic and economic relations between two Asian neighbors. These deals are aimed at developing Pakistan's digital economy and renewable energy sectors. 


Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (L) with President Xi Jinping


Digital Economy:

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif began his 3-day official visit to China with the city of Hangzhou where he was warmly welcomed by Chinese officials. He led a business-to-business (B2B) investment conference with private business leaders from China and Pakistan.  Hangzhou is known for its huge digital economy, e-commerce dominance, and an aggressive push into "future technologies" like embodied AI, robotics, and drones. It is home to the Chinese tech giant Alibaba. 

Prime Minister Sharif visited Alibaba’s headquarters where he forged a comprehensive strategic agreement with the tech giant's Chairman Tsai "right now" to accelerate Pakistan's digital economy. The deal covers AI infrastructure, cloud computing, digital payments and e-commerce.  

Renewable Energy:

Prime Minister Sharif also received CATL Executive Vice President Oscar Lou in Hangzhou. CATL is a leading manufacturer of advanced batteries used for energy storage and electric vehicles. Sharif invited CATL and other renewable energy equipment makers to invest in Pakistan to respond to the growing needs of the country. 

In a meeting with Sheng Huo Neng Yuan Ke Ji Company CEO Agnes Siu, discussions focused on cooperation in the renewable energy sector, particularly solar power. The prime minister highlighted Pakistan’s growing renewable energy market and government measures aimed at facilitating investment in the sector. He also met with Danwei Shao, the Chairwoman of Starcharge Group, to build electric vehicle charging infrastructure and smart mobility systems in Pakistan. 

Sharif argued that the industries where China was no longer competitive because of expensive labor could come to Pakistan, bring in plant and machinery, enter into joint ventures with Pakistani entrepreneurs, manufacture goods, and export to third countries.

Other Industries:

Sharif pitched for Chinese investments and cooperation in other key sectors, including agriculture, pharmaceuticals, textiles and mining. 

President Xin Yuan of Xiuzheng Pharmaceuticals called on the prime minister and discussed pharmaceutical manufacturing, healthcare cooperation and investment opportunities in Pakistan’s growing medical sector.

Sharif promoted a number of special economic zones (SEZs) created by the Pakistan government, Specifically, he mentioned a special economic zone in Karachi spread over more than 6,000 acres of land, where all basic amenities would be provided so that Chinese investors and Pakistani entrepreneurs together could invest there.


Beijing Visit:

Prime Minister Sharif and his team flew from Hangzhou to Beijing to meet with the top Chinese leaders, including President Xi Jinping, Prime Minister Li Qiang and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. 

President Xi told the visitors that China firmly supports Pakistan in safeguarding its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. "No matter how the international landscape may evolve, China will always place priority on the development of China-Pakistan relations in its diplomacy with neighboring countries," he said.

Foreign Minister Wang, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, held a meeting with Pakistan's Chief of Defense Forces and Chief of Army Staff Syed Asim Munir. No matter how the international and regional situation changes, the friendship between China and Pakistan has always been as solid as a rock and unbreakable, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said to him on Monday.

Joint Statement:

At the conclusion of Prime Minister Sharif's China visit, a joint China-Pakistan statement said the two nations have reached a “new broad consensus” ⁠on deepening strategic ⁠ties to bolster the development of a joint economic corridor and establish the port of Gwadar as a regional connectivity hub. “The two sides engaged cordially and reached a new broad consensus on further deepening the China-Pakistan All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership,” the statement said. 

Posted by at 12 comments:
Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Monday, May 18, 2026

Pakistani-American Franchisee Joins Bid to Acquire Papa John's Pizza

A Pakistan-American franchisee has joined a Qatari-backed investor group's bid to buy out the US-based Papa John's Pizza restaurants chain. Nadeem Bajwa started his part-time job in 1991 as a pizza delivery driver for Papa John's while attending college in Indiana. He has since risen to become the largest franchisee with nearly 300 restaurants across the United States. Bajwa's backing could help Irth, which is also backed by Brookfield Asset Management, in its $47 a share pursuit of the pizza chain. Papa John's has been reviewing Irth's offer, though sources told Reuters there is no guarantee a deal gets done.

Papa John's Largest Franchisee Nadeem Bajwa


Bajwa’s journey wasn’t easy. In his early twenties, he was the first in his family to move to the United States, where he encountered many challenges upon arrival. “Coming to the U.S., actually, that was my first flight [ever.] I’d never flown before,” Bajwa told CNBC News. “Just getting into the plane, it was a full flight coming here by myself, [there was] a lot of anxiety ... but I was determined to make it.”

Back in 2020, Pakistani reporter Ahmad Noorani alleged that "(T)he growth of the Bajwa family’s business empire in the United States and later in Pakistan directly matches the rise in power of retired general Asim Saleem Bajwa, who is now chairman of the country’s massive China-financed infrastructure project and a special assistant to the prime minister". “Out of total 99 companies, 66 are main companies, 33 companies are branch companies of some of the main companies, while five companies are dead now,” Ahmad Noorani alleged, adding that the businesses of the Bajwa family have been put under the umbrella called Bajco Group. 

Eager to allege corruption, Noorani obviously ignored many well-known Pakistani immigrant success stories in US restaurant franchise business while jumping to the conclusion that Nadeem Bajwa's success must be built on his brother's alleged corruption in Pakistan. Noorani does not offer any evidence to back up his allegations.

Bajwa's success as a fast food franchisee is not unique. Other Pakistani-American entrepreneurs own and operate some of the largest fast-food franchises in the United States, managing thousands of locations for major brands like Popeyes, Burger King, and Papa John's. Among the most prominent Pakistani-American franchisees is Shoukat Dhanani (Dhanani Group).  Based in Sugar Land, Texas, the Dhanani family runs one of the largest private businesses in the U.S. They are the largest franchisees of Popeyes and a massive Burger King operator, building an empire that generates well over a billion dollars in revenue.

Tabassum Mumtaz, an NED University alumnus, is a another successful Pakistani-American fast-food franchisees. He began his career as a cook for Long John Silver’s,  eventually rising to own the entire chain and becoming a mega-franchisee of A&W, KFC, and Taco Bell under Ampex Brands, running a restaurant portfolio generating over a billion dollars in annual revenue.


Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Karachi IBA Alum Appointed CEO of KFC

Pakistani Leaders in London After Panama Leaks

Edible Arrangements: A Pakistani-American Franchisor's Success Story

NED Alumni Convention 2016 in Houston, Texas

Is CPEC Authority Chairman Bajwa Guilty as Alleged?

President Pervez Musharraf's Legacy

We Hang Petty Thieves and Appoint Great Ones to High Offices

Capitalism's Achilles Heel by Raymond Baker

Nawaz Sharif's Report Card

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel


Posted by at 1 comment:

Monday, May 11, 2026

Is the India Growth Story Over?

In a television speech to the nation, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged his people to make sacrifices by spending less on fuel, fertilizer, and travel. He also asked them not to buy gold for a year. “To save foreign exchange, we must accept the challenge of patriotism,” he said. It appears that India's problems do not just stem from the effects of the US-Iran war; India's problems started well before that. Flight of foreign capital has put the Indian currency under tremendous pressure, with the Indian rupee falling nearly 10% in recent months. Many analysts believe that the Indian IT services exports could fall significantly as the artificial intelligence (AI) models begin to replace the IT workers. It could create a balance of payments crisis that could force India to seek the IMF bailout in the not too distant future.  Already, the Indian economy has slipped to the sixth-largest economy by nominal GDP, dropping from previous projections that had it at fourth.


Indian Economy Drops From 4th to 6th Rank. Source: IndMoneyApp

Energy Crisis:

India is facing a serious energy crisis driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that has disrupted global oil and gas supplies. While the government has assured citizens that there are no immediate shortages of petroleum or natural gas, the escalating costs of imports are putting extreme pressure on the nation's foreign exchange reserves. 

AI Challenge: 

Indian IT firms are cutting staff to prepare for the expected disruption from the adoption of AI. For example, the IT services firm Cognizant is planning major workforce reductions that could impact between 12,000 and 15,000 employees globally, with India expected to account for the majority of the cuts, according to a report. 

A US-based investment research firm Citrini Research is forecasting a significant disruption to India's traditional IT services sector by 2027-2028, driven by the collapsing cost of AI coding agents. Here's an excerpt of the Citrini research report:

"The country’s IT services sector exported over $200 billion annually, the single largest contributor to India’s current account surplus and the offset that financed its persistent goods trade deficit. The entire model was built on one value proposition: Indian developers cost a fraction of their American counterparts. But the marginal cost of an AI coding agent had collapsed to, essentially, the cost of electricity. TCS, Infosys and Wipro saw contract cancellations accelerate through 2027. The rupee fell 18% against the dollar in four months as the services surplus that had anchored India’s external accounts evaporated. By Q1 2028, the IMF had begun “preliminary discussions” with New Delhi". 

Stocks Selloff: 

Sensing the growing crisis, Indian stock market investors are selling off their holdings. IN particular, foreign investors have accelerated their exit from Indian equities in early 2026, selling over $20 Billion in the first four months, driving 14-year low ownership levels. Triggered by Middle East conflicts, rising oil prices, and rupee depreciation, this record exodus—marking the worst quarterly selloff in March—was driven by outflows in banking, financial services, and IT.

Investors see the writing on the wall. The Indian economy has already dropped from the 4th to the 6th rank in the world. The Indian currency is under a lot of pressure. India's current account deficit will worsen with the loss of IT services exports. 

Related Links:


Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Builder.AI: Yet Another Global Indian Scam?

India's Ex Chief Economic Advisor: Indian GDP is 22% to 31% Smaller Than Official Claim

India's AI Spectacle of Chaos and Deception

Has the Modi Government's Politics Hurt India's International Image?

Pakistan's Official GDP Figures Ignore Fast Growing Sectors

India's "Firehose of Falsehoods"

State Bank Says Pakistan's Official GDP Under-estimated

Pakistan's Growing Middle Class

Pakistan's GDP Grossly Under-estimated; Shares Highly Undervalued

Fast Moving Consumer Goods Sector in Pakistan

Retail Investor Growth Drives Pakistan's Bull Market


Posted by at 33 comments:
Labels: , , , , , ,

Monday, May 4, 2026

Pakistan's New Infrastructure Investments and Trade Routes

Pakistan has recently launched 5G wireless service in multiple cities and closed financing on the 306 kilometer 6-lane Sukkur-Hyderabad M6 motorway. In addition, Pakistan is seeing significant increase in the utilization of its Gwadar and Karachi ports after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran war. This will help open the trade routes from Pakistan to Central Asia via Iran, bypassing unstable Afghanistan. It has the potential to eventually make Pakistan a major transshipment hub for the region extending to the land-locked Central Asian Republics. Another major news is the Asian Development Bank financing of cross-border connectivity of the power grid and digital networks. These developments are expected to substantially enhance economic activity in the country, in spite of the short-term negative impact of the energy crisis, particularly in oil and gas imports. 



5G Launch:

Wireless carriers Jazz and Zong have launched 5G services across Pakistan in March 2026.  This will further expand and enhance Pakistan's digital public infrastructure. Jazz launched its 5G service across major cities, including in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar, Quetta, Multan, and Faisalabad. Meanwhile, Jazz's competitor Zong is targeting over 16 cities with 5G speeds exceeding 1.4Gbps. 

During the March auction, a total of 480 MHz of spectrum was sold across multiple bands for over $500 million, with Pakistan's main telcos, Jazz, Ufone, and Zong, snapping up the assets. Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) put a total of 597 MHz of spectrum on the table, with just over 100 MHz of this going unsold.

M6 Motorway:

Pakistan has signed an agreement with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for $235 million in financing for two sections (120 miles) of the M6 motorway in Sindh province. The Islamic Development Bank (IDB) and the OPEC Fund have already agreed to finance three other sections of this motorway. 

The M-6 motorway is the only missing segment in the north-south motorway route linking Karachi to Peshawar. The 306-kilometer-long, six-lane motorway will have 15 interchanges and 10 service areas.

Cross-Border Grid Connectivity:

Pakistan is joining the Pan-Asia Power Grid Initiative sponsored and financed by the Asian Development Bank which will provide $50 billion for power and $20 billion for digital infrastructure. The project will link grids, boost power trading, improve broadband and develop AI-ready communities across Asia, the Pacific. 

Iran Trade Routes:

Pakistan has opened six land transit routes for goods destined for Iran, creating a road corridor through its territory as thousands of containers remain stranded at Karachi port because of the United States blockade of Iranian ports and ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

This development signals a major shift away from the Gulf trade infrastructure Iran had long relied upon, particularly through Jebel Ali Port in the United Arab Emirates. This represents an opportunity for Pakistan to create new trade routes to Central Asian Republics bypassing Afghanistan, eventually making Pakistani ports a major transshipment hub for the entire region. 

Pakistan's newest Gwadar Port has already seen a major surge in activity, handling around 11,000 containers in April 2026 alone, surpassing its entire 2025 volume. The increase comes as shipping companies adjust routes due to disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, pushing traffic toward safer alternatives.

Space Program:

Pakistan's space agency SUPARCO has achieved a major milestone by launching five indigenous satellites over the last 16 months (early 2025 – April 2026), marking a shift toward rapid space technology expansion. The fleet, aimed at Earth observation and agriculture, includes EO-1, EO-2, AI-powered EO-3, and Pakistan's first hyperspectral satellite, HS-1. 

HS-1 is Pakistan's first hyper-spectral  satellite which is equipped with advanced hyperspectral imaging sensors capable of capturing data across hundreds of narrow spectral bands.  The satellite lifted off from China’s Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on a Kinetica-1 rocket. It is expected to boost Pakistan's national capacities in areas such as precision agriculture, environmental monitoring, urban planning, and disaster management. Its high-resolution data will support improved resource management and strengthen Pakistan’s resilience to climate-related challenges. 

Related Links:




Posted by at 34 comments:
Labels: , , , , , , , , ,
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)