Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Showing posts with label Ceasefire. Show all posts

Saturday, July 5, 2025

Indian Military Begins to Accept Its Losses in "Operation Sindoor" Against Pakistan

The Indian military leadership is finally beginning to slowly accept its losses in its unprovoked attack on Pakistan that it called "Operation Sindoor". It began with the May 31 Bloomberg interview of the Indian Chief of Defense Staff General Anil Chauhan in Singapore where he admitted losing Indian fighter aircraft to Pakistan in an aerial battle on May 7, 2025. General Chauhan further revealed that the Indian Air Force was grounded for two days after this loss.

General Chauhan was followed by Navy Captain Shiv Kumar, the Indian Defense Attache in Jakarta, Indonesia, who explained last month that the Indian Air Force losses occurred due to "constraint by (the Indian) political leadership" imposed on the Indian Air Force. He said the Indian forces had been directed not to target Pakistan’s military infrastructure or air defenses. “Only because of the constraint given by the political leadership to not attack the military establishment or their air defenses,” he said, explaining why the IAF suffered the loss of fighter jets.

Yesterday, Lieutenant General Rahul Singh, India's Deputy Chief of the Army, blamed the losses on Chinese help for Pakistan. He said India faced three enemies: Pakistan, China and Turkey based on the equipment used by Pakistan in the latest round. By this logic, Pakistan faced four or more enemies: India and its arms suppliers France, Israel and Russia whose equipment was used by the Indian military in Operation Sindoor against Pakistan.

General Singh said the Pakistanis were closely watching the Indian military's moves in real time. “When the DGMO-level talks were going on, Pakistan actually was mentioning that ‘we know that your such and such important vector is primed and ready for action. I would request you to perhaps pull it back’. So he was getting live inputs … from China,” he added.

Using a homegrown datalink (Link-17) communication system, Pakistan has integrated its ground radars and satellite links with a variety of fighter jets and airborne early warning aircraft (Swedish Erieye AWACS) to achieve high level of situational awareness in the battlefield, according to experts familiar with the technology developed and deployed by the Pakistan Air Force. This integration allows quick execution of a "kill chain" to target and destroy enemy assets, according to experts. This capability was demonstrated recently in the India-Pakistan aerial battle of May 7-8 that resulted in the downing of several Indian fighter jets, including the French-made Rafale.

In an earlier statement, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told Newsweek: “I was in the room when the US vice president spoke to Prime Minister Modi on the night of May 9, warning that the Pakistanis would launch a very massive assault on India if we did not accept certain things". “That night, Pakistan did launch a large-scale attack,” Jaishankar said. India sought and accepted the ceasefire immediately after the "large-scale attack" launched by Pakistan.

These statements by the Indian military brass lead to only one conclusion: Not only is there an implicit admission of India's failed "Operation Sindoor", but also a litany of lame excuses for the losses incurred by the Indian military. The fact is that the Indian leadership clearly underestimated Pakistan's capacity for a strong military and diplomatic response to the Indian provocation labeled "Operation Sindoor". New Delhi was caught unprepared for it.

Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Biden's Gaza Ceasefire Veto Defies American Public Opinion

Aaron Bushnell, an active serviceman in the United States Air Force, burned himself to death in front of the Israeli Embassy in protest against the US policy in Gaza. Before setting himself on fire in what he called an "extreme act of protest", he said he would "no longer be complicit in genocide". Polls show that the vast majority (63%) of Americans want an immediate end to the carnage being perpetrated by Israel in Gaza.

USAF Engineer Aaron Bushnell

Although Bushnell resorted to this extreme form of protest against the Biden Administration's policy of unqualified support for Israel, he was not alone in opposing it. American public opinion polls confirm that the vast majority of Americans, including Jewish Americans, want an immediate end to the Gaza carnage.

Gaza Ceasefire Poll. Source: ISPU

Overall, 63% of Americans support a ceasefire in Gaza, according to a recent poll conducted by the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU). In terms of religions, 71% of Catholics, 61% of Non-Affiliated, 60% of Protestants, 58% of White Evangelicals, 50% of Jews and 75% of Muslims support an immediate ceasefire, according to the poll.

Jewish and Muslim Democrats, like Democrats in the general public, favor an end to the violence in Gaza. The majority of Republicans in the general public also favor a ceasefire.

So why is President Biden defying the will of the American people on Gaza? The simple answer is AIPAC, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the most powerful lobby in Washington D.C. This Israel lobby has showered its friendly politicians with money from wealthy Jewish donors. It has also ensured the defeat of those politicians who dared to speak out against Israeli policies in the Middle East. As one former Democratic senator, Ernest Hollings, put it on leaving office, ‘you can’t have an Israeli policy other than what AIPAC gives you around here.’ Or as Ariel Sharon once told an American audience, ‘when people ask me how they can help Israel, I tell them: “Help AIPAC.”’

President Jimmy Carter who helped broker peace between Israel and Egypt knows the Israel lobby well. He told Amy Goodman of "Democracy Now" many years ago: "I think it’s accurate to say that not a single member of Congress with whom I’m familiar would possibly speak out and call for Israel to withdraw to their legal boundaries or to publicize the plight of the Palestinians or even to call publicly and repeatedly for good faith peace talks..... And I would say that if any member of Congress did speak out, as I’ve just described, they would probably not be back in the Congress the next term ".

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Mehsud to US: No Deal

"There can be no deal with the US." said Baitullah Mehsud at a press conference in South Waziristan this week as reported by the BBC.

If there's any thing that both Mehsud and the US administration agree on, it is outright rejection of any negotiations or deals with each other. Each side is determined to completely defeat and destroy the other.

Mehsud, a former US captive at Guantanamo, was released in March 2004 after the Americans determined that he would not pose a threat. But it seems that Guantanamo has turned him into a much bigger threat to Pakistan, US and the world than he might have been before he was captured in Afghanistan. Now described by some as more dangerous than Usama Bin Laden or Mullah Omar, Baitullah Mehsud keeps a much lower profile. He refuses to be photographed and keeps his face covered in public. He reaches out to his people through FM radio broadcasts. He crosses the border into Afghanistan at will to fight against the "crusaders." Baituallah Mehsud has been accused of ordering a series of suicide bombings inside Pakistan recently. Pakistani, US and British intelligence agencies also believe he orchestrated Benazir Bhutto's murder last year.

Here is how the BBC correspondent Syed Shoaib Hasan described his encounter with Mehsud this week: In our garden meeting, "Amir Sahib" (honored leader) - as Baitullah Mehsud is affectionately called by his men - smiles and shakes his head when this query is raised. Around us, dozens of militants armed to the teeth listen intently to their leader. The query: "Will your recent deal with Pakistan last?" The answer: "We do not want to fight Pakistan or the army. But if they continue to be slaves to US demands, then we our hands will be forced."

This answer makes it clear that this new deal and the latest ceasefire between the Taleban and Pakistan will be as fragile as the previous ones. Americans and NATO are players in this unfolding drama. They have to be part of any lasting deal. Just as the Taleban must be an essential part of any lasting deal. As long as they are unwilling, the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan's tribal belt will continue and will likely spill over into the rest of the region.