Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Showing posts with label China. Show all posts

Saturday, August 1, 2026

Geopolitics: Changing Dynamics of Pakistan's Ties to China and the US

Pakistan has long sought to balance its foreign policy between China and the United States through a pragmatic hedging strategy, gaining economic, military, and diplomatic benefits from both superpowers while maintaining strategic autonomy. But the relationship between Pakistan and China is not the same as the one between Pakistan and the United States. Pakistan's ties with China are strategic while those with the United States remain tactical and transactional. What has changed recently is that Pakistan is no longer waging war to help the United States as it did during the "Cold War" and the "War on Terror". Instead, Pakistan has emerged as a peacemaker between the US and Iran.

Both China and US Are Courting Pakistan

In a piece titled "Pakistan's Great Game", French political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot has explained what he sees as Pakistan's "tactics and strategy" in dealing with the two superpowers. Here's a quote from Jaffrelot's recent article on the subject:

"While Pakistan’s relationship with China is rooted in strategic logic, its relationship with the United States is more tactical in nature-and has been since the 1950s, when General Ayub Khan boasted of his ability to play "one lion against another" (referring to the United States and the USSR at the start of the Cold War). In its dealings with the United States, Pakistan has played the role of intermediary, or even "client," within a typical clientelist framework: in exchange for the services Islamabad provided to Washington, the United States provided Pakistan with substantial aid and agreed to sell it sophisticated weapons, and even to train its officers-a privilege greatly appreciated..... The first major service rendered by the Pakistanis to the Americans was none other than the intermediary role played by General Yahya Khan vis-à-vis Chairman Mao in the early 1970s, which led to the United States’ recognition of the People’s Republic of China. Over the following decade, Pakistan served as an intermediary between Washington and the mujahideen tasked with driving the Soviets out of Afghanistan. And in the 2000s, Pakistan was tasked by Washington with hunting down al-Qaeda-with much more mixed success this time, as evidenced by the discovery of bin Laden’s hideout in Abbottabad in 2011".

Pakistan PM Sharif (L) with Chinese President Xi

Jaffrelot goes on to say that the United States has repeatedly proved to be an unreliable partner of the South Asia nation. "Whenever the United States no longer needed Pakistan-or even felt betrayed by it-it abandoned the country or even imposed sanctions on it", he writes.

More recently, Pakistan's usefulness to the US has once again become obvious, no longer to wage war against the USSR or terrorism, but to make peace with Iran, Jaffrelot says.

"In 2026, Pakistan appears useful once again, no longer to wage war against the USSR or terrorism, but to make peace. Each time, these glorious episodes were very short-lived and came to an end due to criticism of the Pakistani regime’s authoritarianism - with the military always remaining in power, even when civilians are in the forefront; its ties to Islamists accused of terrorist activities - particularly in India; or accusations of nuclear proliferation. Will the same be true tomorrow, once the war in Iran is over and the United States no longer needs Pakistan? Everything will, of course, depend on the outcome of the conflict and the role Pakistan plays in resolving it-for it will be harder to send Islamabad back home if the world owes it something resembling peace".

Oval Office Photo: L to R: VP JD Vance, President Trump, PM Sharif, FM Munir & Sec of State Rubio

Jaffrelot argues that "Pakistan has reached a turning point through the recognition of its military capabilities, as reflected in the mutual defense agreement it signed with Saudi Arabia...... Last June, Kaja Kallas, the EU Vice President in charge of the Union’s international relations, on the occasion of the 8th Strategic Dialogue between Pakistan and the European Union in Islamabad, thanked Pakistan-"a major regional power"-for its efforts in helping to avert an "all-out war" in the Middle East. Jaffrelot now sees Pakistan's new role as a "net security provider" in West Asia and the Middle East.

He writes: "A more significant factor entering the equation relates to regional balances of power: Pakistan will continue to serve as a "net security provider" for Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia if those countries continue to fear the rise of Israel - a potential regional hegemon - and if they doubt Washington’s intentions, or even its mere reliability. There is no doubt that Pakistan itself will do everything in its power to prevent Israel from asserting itself on the regional stage and to gain influence over Iran-which is what the Israeli-American plan for regime change in Iran might have entailed. At the very least, faced with the risk of Israeli hegemony based on force and repeated military interventions, Pakistan could emerge as the architect of a resistance front bringing together not only Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, but also Iran".

Jaffrelot expects India to continue its decade-long campaign to isolate Pakistan internationally. "India’s ability to isolate Pakistan-the strategy Narendra Modi has pursued for more than a decade-is another important variable, though its significance may be undermined by New Delhi’s drift toward authoritarianism and ethnocracy, as well as by the economic and social crisis threatening the country", according to Jaffrelot.

Sunday, July 26, 2026

AI Battle: A Chinese AI Model Fights Off OpenAI's Rogue Agent

Rogue AI agents are no longer just the stuff of science fiction. When an OpenAI rogue agent launched a cyber attack against AI startup Hugging Face this month, the company fought fire with fire, using an open-source Chinese AI model to defend against it.

During a test in a sandbox, an OpenAI autonomous agent managed to sneak out and attack a website operated by HuggingFace, an AI startup based in New York City. The OpenAI agent was not connected to the Internet but it found a way to access it and escaped its sandbox.

It took two days for Hugging Face to put an end to the attack, with help from GLM 5.2, an open weight system created by Chinese company Z.ai. All of this happened in the middle of a debate in the US about banning the use of Chinese AI models.

This incident gives one more reason to companies, including US-based firms, which are rapidly adopting Chinese open-weight AI models to save money. For example, Airbnb relies on Alibaba’s Qwen model, startups like Lindy have transitioned from Anthropic to DeepSeek, and DoorDash has employed Moonshot AI for specific workflows. Overall, Chinese open-source options now account for over 40% of Hugging Face AI community and 80% of open-source developer usage globally.

Open-source AI models—which are roughly 8 to 10 times cheaper to run than proprietary ones—are rapidly closing the reasoning and contextual intelligence gap with frontier models like Anthropic's Claude and OpenAI's ChatGPT. However, open source models shift the responsibility of infrastructure building, maintenance and security to the user.

Open-source AI models are also a game-changer for developing nations like Pakistan, providing affordable, customizable technology without relying on expensive proprietary licenses or restrictive API models. Such models, like the ones offered by Chinese companies, empower governments and local developers to build "sovereign AI" tailored to regional languages, cultural contexts, and infrastructure limits, bypassing the need for massive data centers and reliance on foreign powers.

Modi's AI Spectacle: Chaos and Deception in Delhi

Pakistan to Develop Urdu Large Language Model (LLM)

Algorithm: Origins of Artificial Intelligence in Islamic Age

Digital Pakistan 2022: Broadband Penetration Soars to 90% of 15+ Population

AI Data Centers in Pakistan

Digital Public Infrastructure in Pakistan

Generative AI Buzz in Pakistan

Is Pakistan Ready for the AI Revolution?

People of Chinese Origin Dominate Top Global AI Talent

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Monday, July 20, 2026

Pakistan Joins China in World AI Cooperation Organization (WAICO)

On July 16 in Shanghai, 29 countries, including China, Pakistan and Russia, signed the founding agreement of WAICO, World AI Cooperation Organization. Every BRICS founding member is in, except India. This agreement follows the launch of the US-led Pax Silica, a 24-member coalition, including India, which is designed to counter China's AI efforts. The stated goal of both these competing groups is to provide global governance, including building guardrails and setting standards, for artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.

US-China AI Competition

The announcement of WAICO coincided with the launch of Kimi K3 by Chinese startup Moonshot AI. Kimi K3 is the largest open-weight AI model ever built, its full weights free for the world to download from July 27. Cheaper open-source AI models like Kimi K3 pose a serious threat to U.S. proprietary models. By offering 80-90% of the capability at a fraction of the cost or for free, they are squeezing the premium pricing strategies of domestic leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic.

Open-source AI models are a game-changer for developing nations like Pakistan, providing affordable, customizable technology without relying on expensive proprietary licenses or restrictive API models. Such models, like the ones offered by Chinese companies, empower governments and local developers to build "sovereign AI" tailored to regional languages, cultural contexts, and infrastructure limits, bypassing the need for massive data centers and reliance on foreign powers.

Top Global AI Talent. Marco Polo AI Talent Tracker

Companies, including US-based firms, are rapidly adopting AI cost-saving measures. For example, Airbnb relies on Alibaba’s Qwen model, startups like Lindy have transitioned from Anthropic to DeepSeek, and DoorDash has employed Moonshot AI for specific workflows. Overall, Chinese open-source options now account for over 40% of Hugging Face AI community and 80% of open-source developer usage globally.

Open-source AI models—which are roughly 8 to 10 times cheaper to run than proprietary ones—are rapidly closing the reasoning and contextual intelligence gap with frontier models like Anthropic's Claude. However, open source models shift the responsibility of infrastructure maintenance and security to the user.

The people of Chinese PRC origin account for 47% of the top 20% AI talent in the world based on undergraduate degree, according to a survey. Americans make up 18%, Europeans 12% and Indians 5% of the global AI researchers. In terms of the countries they serve, 57% of them work in the United States, 12% in China, 8% in the UK, 4% each in France and Germany and 3% in Canada as of 2022. While the US still has the lion's share of the top talent, its share has declined from 65% in 2019 to 57% in 2022. Marco Polo talent tracker lists Pakistan among a dozen countries for top AI talent in Asia.

More than half (15 out 25) of the institutions (companies and universities) where the top AI researchers work are located in the United States, while 6 are in China. The remaining four are in the UK, Switzerland, Singapore and Canada, according to Marco Polo Global AI Talent Tracker.

Modi's AI Spectacle: Chaos and Deception in Delhi

Pakistan to Develop Urdu Large Language Model (LLM)

Algorithm: Origins of Artificial Intelligence in Islamic Age

Digital Pakistan 2022: Broadband Penetration Soars to 90% of 15+ Population

STEM Enrollment in Pakistan Exceeds One Million

Digital Public Infrastructure in Pakistan

Generative AI Buzz in Pakistan

Is Pakistan Ready for the AI Revolution?

People of Chinese Origin Dominate Top Global AI Talent

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Monday, May 25, 2026

Iron Brothers China and Pakistan Celebrate 75 Years of "Unbreakable" Friendship

President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif have met today in Beijing to reaffirm the "unbreakable" bond between their two "iron brother" countries on the 75th anniversary of the establishment of the China-Pakistan diplomatic ties. "No matter how the international landscape may evolve, China will always place priority on the development of China-Pakistan relations in its diplomacy with neighboring countries," he said. Over 7 decades of friendship witnessed Pakistan help bring about the US-China rapprochement that has enabled the Asian giant to grow from international isolation to what President Donald Trump recently declared part of "G2", the exclusive group of two real superpowers in the world today. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's three-day visit to China has seen the signing of multiple agreements to further strengthened strategic and economic relations between two Asian neighbors. These deals are aimed at developing Pakistan's digital economy and renewable energy sectors.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (L) with President Xi Jinping

Digital Economy:

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif began his 3-day official visit to China with the city of Hangzhou where he was warmly welcomed by Chinese officials. He led a business-to-business (B2B) investment conference with private business leaders from China and Pakistan. Hangzhou is known for its huge digital economy, e-commerce dominance, and an aggressive push into "future technologies" like embodied AI, robotics, and drones. It is home to the Chinese tech giant Alibaba.

Prime Minister Sharif visited Alibaba’s headquarters where he forged a comprehensive strategic agreement with the tech giant's Chairman Tsai "right now" to accelerate Pakistan's digital economy. The deal covers AI infrastructure, cloud computing, digital payments and e-commerce.

Renewable Energy:

Prime Minister Sharif also received CATL Executive Vice President Oscar Lou in Hangzhou. CATL is a leading manufacturer of advanced batteries used for energy storage and electric vehicles. Sharif invited CATL and other renewable energy equipment makers to invest in Pakistan to respond to the growing needs of the country.

In a meeting with Sheng Huo Neng Yuan Ke Ji Company CEO Agnes Siu, discussions focused on cooperation in the renewable energy sector, particularly solar power. The prime minister highlighted Pakistan’s growing renewable energy market and government measures aimed at facilitating investment in the sector. He also met with Danwei Shao, the Chairwoman of Starcharge Group, to build electric vehicle charging infrastructure and smart mobility systems in Pakistan.

Sharif argued that the industries where China was no longer competitive because of expensive labor could come to Pakistan, bring in plant and machinery, enter into joint ventures with Pakistani entrepreneurs, manufacture goods, and export to third countries.

Other Industries:

Sharif pitched for Chinese investments and cooperation in other key sectors, including agriculture, pharmaceuticals, textiles and mining.

President Xin Yuan of Xiuzheng Pharmaceuticals called on the prime minister and discussed pharmaceutical manufacturing, healthcare cooperation and investment opportunities in Pakistan’s growing medical sector.

Sharif promoted a number of special economic zones (SEZs) created by the Pakistan government, Specifically, he mentioned a special economic zone in Karachi spread over more than 6,000 acres of land, where all basic amenities would be provided so that Chinese investors and Pakistani entrepreneurs together could invest there.

Beijing Visit:

Prime Minister Sharif and his team flew from Hangzhou to Beijing to meet with the top Chinese leaders, including President Xi Jinping, Prime Minister Li Qiang and Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

President Xi told the visitors that China firmly supports Pakistan in safeguarding its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. "No matter how the international landscape may evolve, China will always place priority on the development of China-Pakistan relations in its diplomacy with neighboring countries," he said.

Foreign Minister Wang, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, held a meeting with Pakistan's Chief of Defense Forces and Chief of Army Staff Syed Asim Munir. No matter how the international and regional situation changes, the friendship between China and Pakistan has always been as solid as a rock and unbreakable, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said to him on Monday.

Joint Statement:

At the conclusion of Prime Minister Sharif's China visit, a joint China-Pakistan statement said the two nations have reached a “new broad consensus” ⁠on deepening strategic ⁠ties to bolster the development of a joint economic corridor and establish the port of Gwadar as a regional connectivity hub. “The two sides engaged cordially and reached a new broad consensus on further deepening the China-Pakistan All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership,” the statement said.

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Can Pakistan's JF-17 Become Developing World's Most Widely Deployed Fighter Jet?

Worldwide demand for the JF-17 fighter jet, jointly developed by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (CAIG), is surging. It is attracting buyers in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. At just $40 million a piece, it is a combat-proven flying machine with no western political strings attached. It has enormous potential as the lowest-cost 4.5 generation fighter jet featuring AESA radar, enhanced electronics, and superior weapons systems.

Pakistan PFX Concept Fighter. Source: Raksha Anirveda

In addition to the Pakistan Air Force, it is currently deployed by the air forces of Azerbaijan, Myanmar and Nigeria. Multi-billion dollar orders are in the pipeline from several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Libya and Sudan. Bangladesh is reportedly negotiating to purchase JF-17s in the near future. These orders are not just one-time purchases; they include service and training contracts, as well as spare parts and future upgrades. The US-based business publication Bloomberg recently reported: "After Pakistan said it used the jets to great effect in its brief conflict with India last year, at least five countries have expressed interest in buying them. That sudden demand may put the country’s defense industry in a crunch". So the question now is: Can Pakistan deliver?

Currently, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) has the capacity to manufacture up to 20 JF-17s per year, sufficient to fill the orders from the Pakistan Air Force. It uses a Pakistani airframe, Chinese-made KLJ-7A AESA radar and Russian Klimov RD-93 turbofan engine. Additional capacity is being added at PAC to meet rapidly growing demand. A Chinese aviation expert told China's Global Times that this could be a "sweet problem" for Pakistan, as backed by strong order demand, the country's aviation industry is expected to develop rapidly, and potential capacity constraints are ultimately not a true concern given China's support for Pakistan in manufacturing this type of fighter jet.

The JF-17 is opening doors for Pakistan’s defense industry. The country is emerging as a major arms supplier to developing countries in Asia and Africa. Talks underway with at least 13 countries for JF-17 jets, drones and weapons, with several negotiations at an advanced stage.

Azerbaijan, Myanmar, Nigeria and Sudan have all made significant arms purchases from Pakistan in recent years. Azerbaijan expanded its order for JF-17 Thunder Block III multi-role fighter jets from Pakistan from 16 to 40 aircraft. The recent order extends a 2024 contract worth $1.6 billion to modernize Baku’s airborne combat fleet to $4.6 billion. This makes Azerbaijan the largest export customer of the Pakistan-made warplane. Bangladesh is negotiating purchase of up to 32 JF-17 Thunder Block III aircraft from Pakistan.

In the Middle East Pakistan has orders to supply JF-17s to Libya and Saudi Arabia. In a deal with Libya, Pakistan will sell over two dozen JF-17 fighter jets and 12 Super Mushak trainer aircraft used for basic pilot training. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are in negotiations to convert about $2bn of Saudi loans into a deal to buy JF-17 fighter jets, according to Reuters.

In Africa, Pakistan has recently signed a $1.5 billion contract to supply combat drones and military trainer aircraft to Sudan. The order includes 150 armored vehicles, 220 drones and 10 K-8 Karakorum trainer/light attack aircraft. Earlier in 2021, Pakistan sold three JF-17 Thunder fighter jets and ten Super Mushshak trainer aircraft to Nigeria in a deal worth nearly $200 million. From 2018 to 2021, Pakistan sold 11 JF-17 Thunder Block I aircraft to Myanmar.

Air forces of about a dozen developing nations are buying and deploying Pakistani made aircrafts. The reasons for their choice of combat-tested Pakistan manufactured airplanes include advanced BVR (beyond visual range) features, affordability and ease of acquisition, maintenance and training.

Pakistan started developing defense hardware for import substitution to reduce external dependence and to save hard currency. Now the country's defense industry is coming of age to lead the way to high value-added manufactured exports.

Pakistan has unveiled its PFX (Pakistan Fighter Experimental) program as a significant upgrade to its JF-17 joint program with China. The new upgrade will have a number of stealth features ranging from the use of radar-absorbing composite materials and diverterless supersonic inlets (DSI) to internal weapons bay (IWB) which will significantly reduce the aircraft's radar signature. It is targeted for completion by the end of this decade. In addition, the PFX's twin-engine design will improve maneuverability and allow greater payload capacity.

The program is part of Pakistan's broader strategy to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and strengthen the domestic defense industry. Currently, 58% of JF-17 components are manufactured locally by PAC, but Pakistan aims to increase this share to achieve full production autonomy for the PFX. It is not just about the PAF modernization but also about positioning Pakistan as an important player in the global military aviation market.

The PFX is an evolution of a plan that Pakistan announced in 2017 to develop and produce 5th generation fighter planes. It is part of Pakistan Air Force's highly ambitious Project Azm that includes building Kamra Aviation City dedicated to education, research and development and manufacturing of advanced fighter jets, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and weapon systems.

The PAF has already started replacing its aging fleet with the induction of the Chinese J10C fighter jets which are considered 4.5 Gen. The J10-C has stealth features like diverterless supersonic inlets (DSI). Its BVR capability is supported by PL-15 missiles, with an engagement range of up to 200 kilometers, facilitating long-range target engagements.

The PAF has also begun the process of acquiring 5th generation Chinese J35 fighter jets. The delivery of 40 J35 fighters to Pakistan is expected within two years, potentially altering regional dynamics, particularly concerning India.

Tuesday, December 30, 2025

Happy New Year 2026: Pakistan's Year 2025 in Review

As we enter the year 2026, it is time to review the year 2025 and wish you all Happy New Year 2026! May it bring peace, prosperity and happiness to all!!

The year 2025 saw Pakistan defeat a brazen Indian attack on its soil, while reviving its economy and fighting increasing terror. Pakistan's successful response to multiple serious challenges in 2025 helped significantly raise its geopolitical profile with improved ties with the United States and stronger relations with its friends in China, Russia and the Middle East. Pakistan’s GDP crossed the $400 billion mark in 2025. The year ended with Pakistani currency stable and the KSE-100, the key Pakistani stock market index, achieving new record highs with over 50% annual return in US dollar terms for investors. Privatization efforts gained steam with the sale of the PIA, the debt-ridden money-losing state-owned national airline, to private Pakistani investors. The political issues between the rulers and the opposition remained unresolved while PTI chief Imran Khan and his wife were sentenced to long jail terms. Taliban and Baloch terrorist groups stepped up their attacks on both civilian and military targets in the country. Pakistan has accused the Afghan Taliban of harboring these terrorist groups with India's backing.

Indian Aggression in May 2025:

On May 7, 2025, the Indian military launched an unprovoked attack on civilian targets in Pakistan after alleging without evidence that the terrorist attack in Pahalgam in the Indian Occupied Kashmir was carried out by groups based in Pakistan. The Indian attack was met with a robust Pakistani response in which multiple Indian fighter jets, including recently acquired Rafales, were shot down, leading to the grounding of the entire Indian Air Force for 48 hours. The fighting was halted within 4 days after mediation by the US President Donald J. Trump.

India's diplomatic efforts to isolate Pakistan by attempting to persuade the international community that Pakistan bore responsibility for Pahalgam failed miserably as the world demanded evidence which New Delhi could not produce. Azerbaijan, China and Turkey stood firmly with Pakistan, while India stood alone. Neither the US nor Russia came to India’s support.

High Optimism in Pakistan for 2026. Source: Gallup International

Pakistan's Geopolitical Gains:

Pakistan's success in what India dubbed Operation Sindoor was widely recognized by independent analysts and international media. President Trump talked about India's losses and a US government report referred to Pakistan's military successes against India.

Pakistan’s arm sales soared as the world learnt how the Pakistani military successfully used its indigenous defense gear, including drones and rockets, in the May conflict with India.

The Chinese celebrated the combat performance of their J-10C fighter jets and PL-15 air-to-air missiles used by the Pakistan Air Force against Indian military jets. Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defense pact with Pakistan after the Israeli Air Force struck in Doha, Qatar and the US government did nothing to help the country that hosts the largest US military base in the region.

Pakistan GDP FY 2008 to FY 2025. Source: PBS and AKD

Pakistan's Economic Revival:

Pakistan's economy stabilized with its currency stability and investor confidence. Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP ) reached $411 billion in June, 2025, rising 6.2% in April-June quarter. It slowed to 3.7% as floods hit parts of the country in the July-September quarter. The key stock index KSE-100 closed at record highs with 52% annual gain in US dollar terms. Large scale manufacturing grew with 8.3% in Oct 2025, driven by automobiles, construction, textiles, and petroleum. About 36,000 new retail trading accounts were opened in the September quarter, compared to 23,600 new registrations just three months ago, according to Topline Securities, a brokerage house in Pakistan. Broad and deep participation in capital markets is essential for economic growth and wealth distribution in any country.

Pakistan Shares Index Performance in 2025. Source: PSX

Pakistani Rupee Performed Better Than Indian/Sri Lankan Currencies in 2025

Pakistan's arms exports soared with multi-billion dollar orders for its fighter jets, trainer aircraft and drones. Azerbaijan, Sudan, Libya and Turkey purchased Pakistan-made defense equipment.

The discovery of rare earth metals, particularly large deposits of antimony, a critical mineral, boosted Pakistan's potential in world trade of critical metals. Antimony's main uses are in flame retardants (as antimony trioxide in plastics, textiles), strengthening alloys (especially with lead for batteries, ammunition, bearings, cable sheathing, pewter), and in semiconductors (diodes, infrared detectors). It's crucial for military tech (night vision, explosives), improves battery performance, and is used in glass (clarifying agent) and ceramics, highlighting its role in critical defense and energy technologies. . The price of antimony trioxide has shot up to around $40,000 per ton — off its peak of more than $60,000 as some users seek alternatives but still substantially higher than $26,000 in September 2024 — as fears about China’s control of the supply chains for metals including antimony have sparked a global race to secure supplies.

Pakistan received commitments of billions of dollars in investments in its large copper and gold deposits. Copper's importance has dramatically increased with growth in electric vehicles, data centers and global power demand.

Pakistan Space Program:

In October 2025, China launched HS-1 satellite for Pakistan, its first hyper-spectral satellite which is equipped with advanced hyper-spectral imaging sensors capable of capturing data across hundreds of narrow spectral bands. The satellite lifted off from China’s Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on a Kinetica-1 rocket. It is expected to boost Pakistan's national capacities in areas such as precision agriculture, environmental monitoring, urban planning, and disaster management. Its high-resolution data will support improved resource management and strengthen Pakistan’s resilience to climate-related challenges.

In addition to the HS-1 satellite, Pakistan has signed a $406 million deal with China’s PIESAT for a constellation of over 20 imaging and communication satellites, a move that signals a profound shift in its strategic posture, according to defense site Quwa. The deal includes a full transfer-of-technology (ToT) for in-country satellite manufacturing. It is poised to provide the Pakistani military with a sovereign, persistent imaging intelligence (IMINT) capability.

Pakistan's First AI Data Center:

Data Vault and Telenor Pakistan launched the nation's first dedicated AI data center in Karachi. It is designed to support startups, researchers, and government agencies with high-performance computing and GPU-as-a-service offerings. It is equipped with more than 3,000 Nvidia's highest performance H100 and H200 GPUs for which the Trump Administration issued export licenses. These GPUs cost from $40,000 to $60,000 each, making the Nvidia chips the biggest chunk of the investment made in this AI data center. Other data centers in Pakistan also support AI workloads but this new data center in Karachi is specially designed for AI. It puts the country on a short list of only a handful of nations with locally hosted AI data centers. Pakistanis rank among the world's top five users of Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools, securing the fourth spot among 21 nations surveyed by the Schwartz Reisman Institute.

Pakistan's Challenges in 2026:

Sustained economic recovery is the key challenge for Pakistan in 2026 and beyond. It is a difficult challenge amid unsettled issues with India and unresolved domestic political problems at home. Opposition leader Imran Khan and his wife have been sentenced to long jail terms by Pakistani courts. This situation, if left unresolved, is likely to continue to be a source of instability and poor economic performance. The other challenge is rising incidents of terror in the country with a 70% increase in terror attacks in 2025. Brute force alone will not resolve these issues. There's a need for talks to reach a political settlement with the Afghan Taliban who are harboring groups like the TTP and BLA that launch cross-border attacks in Pakistan.

Related Links:

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

HS-1 Satellite: Pakistan's Eye in the Sky

HS-1 is Pakistan's first hyper-spectral satellite which is equipped with advanced hyperspectral imaging sensors capable of capturing data across hundreds of narrow spectral bands. The satellite lifted off from China’s Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on a Kinetica-1 rocket. It is expected to boost Pakistan's national capacities in areas such as precision agriculture, environmental monitoring, urban planning, and disaster management. Its high-resolution data will support improved resource management and strengthen Pakistan’s resilience to climate-related challenges.

Though the HS-1 satellite is primarily aimed at civilian applications, it will also have significant intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capability for military applications. It is much more advanced than Pakistan's PRSS-1 satellite launched in 2018 which senses objects on earth in the optical RGB (Red-Green-Blue) range. The HS-1's high-resolution data will support improved resource management and assist the Pakistani military's efforts to monitor events on the ground.

"While PIESAT’s official data states a resolution of 0.5 meters, Chinese media reports indicate a larger 54-satellite version of the constellation could achieve a global revisit rate of just 60 minutes. For Pakistan, its initial 20-satellite acquisition implies a clear intent to establish a persistent regional surveillance net with revisit rates well under one day, fundamentally changing its ability to monitor adversary movements".

Space science is a lot more than rocket science. It goes well beyond building booster rockets for satellite launches. It includes various fields like physics, astronomy, biology, chemistry, and engineering to study phenomena in space and collect and analyze data about activities on earth. Pakistan-China space cooperation is yet another confirmation of the close and growing scientific ties between the two countries. Tens of thousands of Pakistani students are currently attending Chinese universities which are among the best in the world. Thousands of Pakistani engineers and scientists are closely working with their Chinese counterparts on multiple projects. It is a great opportunity for Pakistanis to learn from astounding scientific and technological achievements of their Chinese counterparts.

Chinese researchers dominate global AI research, according to Marco Polo which tracks global AI talent. China dominates the top 10 science institutions, with the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) and Tsinghua University taking the top three spots, according to the Science Journal Nature. Only two non-Chinese institutions broke into the top 10 – the Max Planck Society in Germany at No 4 and the French National Center for Scientific Research at No 10. The top three US institutions – the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard University and Stanford University – were ranked at 13th, 16th and 20th, respectively.

Analysts believe that China's real focus is on industrial applications for Artificial Intelligence (AI) rather than chatbots like ChatGPT or DeepSeek. Chinese are working to use the underlying technology to develop affordable, commercially viable business solutions, according to Jacob Dreyer who recently wrote an article for science journal Nature. "Its applications can then be exported, especially to lower-income countries. In other words, China’s target is not necessarily ‘frontier AI’, but ‘mass-market AI’. Its emerging AI playbook mirrors its approach to other technologies, such as electric vehicles and clean energy: not the first to innovate, but the first to make them affordable for widespread use".

Chinese AI Lab's DeepSeek Shocks Silicon Valley

Growing China-Pakistan Space Collaboration

Pakistani Military Launches Defense AI Program

Pakistani Students Enrollment in US Colleges and Universities Soaring

Digital Pakistan 2022: Broadband Penetration Soars to 90% of 15+ Population

STEM Enrollment in Pakistan Exceeds One Million

Digital Public Infrastructure in Pakistan

Pakistanis Mini Invasion of China

Is Pakistan Ready for the AI Revolution?

Growing Presence of Pakistani Women in Science and Technology

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Monday, September 8, 2025

Trump's Tariffs on India: Can China or Russia Make Up For Lost Exports to US?

The United States is the biggest export market for India. Among its top 5 trading partners, the US is also the only country with which India runs a trade surplus. This surplus is now at risk with the 50% tariff recently imposed by President Donald Trump on imports from India. Can Prime Minister Narendra make up for it by cozying up to China and Russia? Recent trade data shows he can't.

While India has enjoyed a significant surplus in trade with the US, the South Asian nation has been running large trade deficits with China and Russia. Last year, for example, India had a $100 billion trade deficit with China and a $62 billion deficit with Russia. On the other hand, India ran over a $40 billion trade surplus with the US. Given these figures, it's hard to understand what India hopes to achieve by getting closer to Beijing and Moscow. The fact is that the US is the world's biggest economy that offers the largest and most profitable export market for most countries. Loss of the US export market spells major trouble for any economy in the world. President Donald Trump knows this and he is using it to make new trade deals to America's advantage. Europeans, Japanese and Koreans have essentially accepted higher tariffs in return for continued access to the US market, while China is negotiating a trade deal with Washington.

The loss of the US export market also means heavy job losses in India's major sectors like textiles, shoes, gems and jewelry and shrimps exports. Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at the investment bank Jefferies, puts the economic blow at £41 billion-£45 billion, according to the Guardian newspaper. He singles out textiles, footwear, jewelry and gems, all of which are highly labour-intensive, as “the most negatively impacted”. Tens of millions of jobs are at risk in these industries. "The stakes for India’s government are political as well as economic. The prime minister, Narendra Modi, has pitched manufacturing as a way to provide jobs to the millions of young Indians who join the labour force each year. These industries employ tens of millions, directly and indirectly", the Guardian reports.

Explaining the punitive India tariffs, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said: "India came to the table early. They’ve been slow rolling things. So I think that the president, the whole trade team has been frustrated with them. And also, you know, India, India has been a large buyer of sanctioned Russian oil that they then resell as refined products. So, you know, they have not been a great global actor".

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi clearly misjudged what he needed to do with Trump 2.0. He continued business as usual, counting on his "bromance" with the US president to get a favorable deal. He thought the US policy of "strategic altruism" with India will continue as it had under the Trump 1.0 and Biden administrations. Modi let his billionaire friends Adani and Ambani rake in billions in profits on Russian oil trade. The discounted Russian oil Adani and Ambani bought was refined and exported for a huge profit to buyers around the world. Now the ordinary Indians are paying the price for Modi's folly.

Worried about a slowing economy, the Modi government is now trying to stimulate domestic consumption by cutting GST (general sales taxes). It is a good move but it will not make up for dollars lost from the precipitous fall in exports to the US market. This fear is causing the Indian currency to fall against the US dollar. There are tough times ahead for the Indian economy.

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Sunday, August 31, 2025

US-India Ties: Does Trump Have a Grand Strategy?

Since the dawn of the 21st century, the US strategy has been to woo India and to build it up as a counterweight to rising China in the Indo-Pacific region. Most beltway analysts agree with this policy. However, the current Trump administration has taken significant actions, such as the imposition of 50% tariffs on India's exports to the US, that appear to defy this conventional wisdom widely shared in the West. Does President Trump have a grand strategy guiding these actions? George Friedman, the founder of Geopolitical Futures, believes the answer is Yes.

George Friedman

George Friedman is an American futurologist, political scientist, and writer. He writes about international relations. He is the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures. Prior to founding Geopolitical Futures, he was chairman of the publishing company Stratfor

In a recent podcast, Friedman said "India is not an essential country from the American standpoint". "They (Indians) are a useful ally, but precisely not indispensable and in fact, not really able to give us what we want", he added. "They do participate in the quad, but their naval force is not significantly needed. The quad being an alliance basically against China at sea. And simultaneously, it was discovered that their economic capacity is far below what we need. So it was not that they were dispensable, but at the same time, it was not something that we had to take into account greatly".

Getting tough with the Indians also allowed the US to "signal to the Chinese that we’re not going to be going to war with them, which they worried about India and to the Russians that we really are going to impose tariffs".

In answer to a question as to whether the Indians might feel the US is using them as "a tool as it tries to reach deals with Russia and China", Friedman said: "this is the problem of weaker nations trying to play games with very strong nations. They get used".

What Friedman has articulated runs counter to a quarter century of the US policy of boosting India to check China. Even some of India's friends in Washington are starting to acknowledge that India is no match to China. Ashley Tellis, a strongly pro-India analyst in the United States, recently wrote an essay for Foreign Affairs magazine titled "India's Great Power Delusions". Here is an excerpt from it:

"Although India has grown in economic strength over the last two decades, it is not growing fast enough to balance China, let alone the United States, even in the long term. It will become a great power, in terms of relative GDP, by midcentury, but not a superpower. In military terms, it is the most significant conventional power in South Asia, but here, too, its advantages over its local rival are not enormous: in fighting in May, Pakistan used Chinese-supplied defense systems to shoot down Indian aircraft. With China on one side and an adversarial Pakistan on the other, India must always fear the prospect of an unpalatable two-front war. Meanwhile, at home, the country is shedding one of its main sources of strength—its liberal democracy—by embracing Hindu nationalism. This evolution could undermine India’s rise by intensifying communal tensions and exacerbating problems with its neighbors, forcing it to redirect security resources inward to the detriment of outward power projection. The country’s illiberal pivot further undermines the rules-based international order that has served it so well".

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Sunday, August 24, 2025

Humbled Modi Reaches Out to China After Trump Turns Hostile

Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to be shedding his Hindutva arrogance. He is reaching out to China after President Donald Trump and several top US administration officials have openly and repeatedly targeted India for harsh criticism over the purchase of Russian oil. Top American officials have accused India, particularly the billionaire friends of Mr. Modi, of “profiteering” from the Russian oil trade. While welcoming India’s outreach, the Chinese have indicated they expect New Delhi to stop covert aid to militant groups attacking Chinese interests in Pakistan. Meanwhile, Chinese Ambassador Xu Feihong in New Delhi recently told his Indian audiences that “Pakistan is a victim of terrorism”. Also, the United States has recently labeled the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and its affiliated the Majeed Brigade as “international terrorists”. Majeed Brigade claimed responsibility for hijacking of the Jaffar Express train in Balochistan and murdering 31 people in cold blood in March this year. The Chinese have reached out to the Afghan Taliban leadership to get them to stop the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and related terrorist groups like ISIS-K from launching cross-border attacks in Pakistan which kill Chinese and Pakistani citizens and impact Chinese projects. The US has also praised the Pakistani government as a “phenomenal partner” in combatting international terrorism.

There is significant evidence of Indian intelligence agencies’ involvement in terrorist attacks on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects funded by the Chinese government. Indian covert operative Kulbhushan Jhadav, now in Pakistani custody, has detailed his role in carrying out such attacks. In “My Enemy’s Enemy”, Indian investigative journalist Avinash Paliwal has described at some length the connections between the Indian government agents and the Afghan and Baloch militants targeting the Pakistani state and various development projects undertaken under the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Paliwal talks of the presence of Afghan and Baloch exiles in New Delhi where the Indian intelligence services recruit "human assets" to use against Pakistan. He says he has conducted interviews about Indian support for the TTP (Pakistani Taliban) on the ground in Afghanistan “whose details can not be divulged”.

In recent years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has also been accused of ordering targeted assassinations of dissidents in multiple countries, including Canada, the US and Pakistan. Reacting to the report of Canadian allegations against the Indian government, Pakistan Foreign Secretary Syrus Qazi said: “We are aware of the nature of our eastern neighbor, we know what they are capable of … so it is not a surprise for us. “We caught [one of their] serving naval intelligence officers on our soil. He (Kulbhushan Jadhav) is in our custody and admitted that he came here to create instability and spread evil,” he added.

Modi has a long history of murdering minorities in his country. After the Gujarat anti-Muslim pogrom of 2002, Narendra Modi made the cover of India Today magazine with the caption "Hero of Hatred". Modi was denied a visa to visit the United States. The US visa ban on Modi was lifted in 2014 after he became prime minister. Since then, Narendra Modi's image has been rehabilitated by the West as the US and Western Europe seek allies in Asia to counter the rise of China. However, Modi's actions on the ground in India confirm that he remains "Hero of Hatred" and "Divider In Chief" at his core. A two-part BBC documentary explains this reality in significant detail. The first part focuses on the 2002 events in Gujarat when Modi as the state chief minister ordered the police to not stop the Hindu mobs murdering Muslims and burning their homes and businesses. The second part looks at Modi government's anti-Muslim policies, including the revocation of Kashmir's autonomy (article 370) and a new citizenship law (CAA 2019) that discriminates against Muslims. It shows the violent response by security forces to peaceful protests against the new laws, and interviews the family members of people who were killed in the 2020 Delhi riots orchestrated by Modi's allies.

Here's Indian National Security Advisor on how to use Taliban to attack Pakistan:

https://youtu.be/eYRuk8H5M9E?si=ZB1c7Dd8ntQdKeFi

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Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Miller vs Schiller: The Battle of the Lobbyists for India and Pakistan

The Indian government has hired Jason Miller, a former Trump aide, to lobby for India in Washington, DC for a monthly sum of $150,000 per month. Pakistan has retained Keith Schiller, also a former Trump aide, for a monthly compensation of $50,000 to help Pakistan get favorable treatment by the Trump Administration. It shows that India is outspending Pakistan by 3 to 1 on lobbying in Washington, but it does not appear to be paying off for New Delhi.

Singh's X message said: "Pakistan is paying $50,000 a month to their lobbyist in DC, while India is paying $150,000. Perhaps the lobbyists don't count. It is what Trump think and does that matters, and his personal equation with the leaders of the countries". He also shared a photo of a Times of India report by Chidanand Rajghatta.

Jason Miller served as spokesman for the 2016 Trump Presidential Campaign and the Trump Transition Team. Keith Schiller worked as Deputy Assistant to President Trump and Director of Oval Office Operations.

The obvious reason for the two South Asian nations to pick these men is that they have both been close to President Trump. It is not clear how influential these individuals have been in the recent decisions by the Trump administration in imposing vastly different levels of tariffs on India (50%) and Pakistan (19%). It could also have been other factors such as the substance of trade negotiations and India disputing President Trump's role in bringing about the India-Pakistan ceasefire after a 4-day war in May, 2025, that influenced Trump's decisions.

A Financial Times story appears to suggest that Pakistan's crypto deal with World Liberty Financial, a Trump-backed cryptocurrency venture. Here's an excerpt from the FT story: "Zach Witkoff, the son of US special envoy Steve Witkoff, said during the trip that Pakistan had “trillions of dollars” of mineral wealth ripe for tokenization. Since then, Bilal bin Saqib, Pakistan’s minister for crypto and blockchain, has emerged as a shadow diplomat, taking part in trade talks with Washington and pitching Pakistan’s crypto potential to figures close to Trump’s family and advisers. Pakistani officials also point to their conduct during the May conflict with India as having bolstered their credibility with Trump".

FT story quotes Marvin Weinbaum, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, as saying: “Pakistan is a rare country that is friends with China, Iran, the Gulf states, to a lesser extent Russia, and now, again, the US....The US sees (Pakistan's Military Chief) Munir as someone who can play a useful strategic role, and the Pakistanis keep their lines open to everyone but know to pull back when one relationship is clashing with another.”

Monday, July 28, 2025

Can Pakistan Balance Close China Ties With its US Relationship?

Pakistani civilian and military leaders have recently met with top leaders from China and the US. While Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar has met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Pakistan's military chief Field Marshal Asim Munir has had lunch with President Donald Trump and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during July, 2025. “Our foreign policy is not a zero-sum game,” Dar said at a presentation to the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington DC. “We hope to see friendly relations between the US and China and do not wish to embroil in bloc politics.” Pakistan's close ties to both the US and China go back to the 1960s at the height of the Cold War. It was Pakistan which helped arrange the first China-US dialogue in July 1971 when the US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger flew from Pakistan to China to hold the first face-to-face meeting with Chinese leaders.

With increasing US-China rivalry on the world stage today, can Pakistan still maintain close ties with both Beijing and Washington at the same time? President Trump's remarks at a recent Philippines-US summit offer clues to answering this puzzle.

Responding to questions at the White House last week, visiting Filipino President Marcos said "there's no need to balance the relationship between the US and China" and that his "strongest partner has always been the US." President Trump immediately rebuked him, saying he "doesn't mind if [Marcos] gets along with China because we're getting along with China very well," and told Marcos that getting along with China is "doing what's right for his country," would "make the Philippines great again" and "wouldn't bother me at all."

It seems that Secretary Rubio has reconciled himself with the inevitability of China's rise. In February 2025, Rubio told Brian Kilmeade of Fox News: “China is going to be a rich and powerful country. No matter what we do, that’s what – we’re going to have to deal with that. But we have to deal with the reality. What we cannot have is a world where China is so powerful, we depend on them. And that’s right now where we’re headed, unfortunately. That’s going to change. That’s going to change under President Trump”.

Talking about the US interest in South Asia, American Professor John Mearsheimer told India's CNN-News18 in May this year: "When it comes to countering China, India is the most important country for the US in South Asia. But the US also wants to maintain good relations with Pakistan to try to peel it away from China".

Speaking to an Indian YouTube channel "The Federal" after what India called its "Operation Sindoor", French political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot talked of Indian expectations "which are completely unrealistic, a fight to the finish with a nuclear power (Pakistan). What does that mean do you think you can really break Pakistan create an an independent Balochistan this is complete fantasy and of course when you foster this sense of fantasy by being almost belligerent and also there is this sense of hysteria that that the that the media are of course also cultivating when you expect so much you can only be disappointed and and this is really um counterproductive for the BJP to play that game because they are bound to create expectations they will never meet".

Here's a good summation of the aftermath of "Operation Sindoor" as seen by a veteran Indian diplomat MK Bhadrakumar: "The bottom line is, Pakistan has demonstrated its nuclear deterrent capability. It is as simple as that. If Operation Sindoor were to be repeated every now and then, it would only have the same results and be halted unceremoniously within 100 hours. Eventually, it will not only lose all novelty to our ecstatic TV audience, but a troubled nation may eventually start blaming an inept leadership. Pakistan is a major military power. Creating potholes in an odd runway or rendering a radar dysfunctional temporarily will not intimidate that country. Succinctly put, it must be far better for India to take help from Trump, who harbors no animus against us, to solve the problem and move on with life".

Pakistan military's remarkable performance against its much larger rival India has significantly raised Pakistan's geopolitical profile in the eyes of the international community. Islamabad's ties with Beijing and Washington have significantly strengthened. The country has been elected President of the UN Security Council and Chair of the UN Security Council Taliban Sanctions Committee (1988 Committee): This committee oversees the implementation of sanctions measures against the Taliban. Pakistan is also Vice-Chair of the Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC): The CTC monitors the implementation of resolution 1373, which outlines state obligations to counter terrorism.