Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Showing posts with label Minerals. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Miller vs Schiller: The Battle of the Lobbyists for India and Pakistan

The Indian government has hired Jason Miller, a former Trump aide, to lobby for India in Washington, DC for a monthly sum of $150,000 per month. Pakistan has retained Keith Schiller, also a former Trump aide, for a monthly compensation of $50,000 to help Pakistan get favorable treatment by the Trump Administration. It shows that India is outspending Pakistan by 3 to 1 on lobbying in Washington, but it does not appear to be paying off for New Delhi.

Singh's X message said: "Pakistan is paying $50,000 a month to their lobbyist in DC, while India is paying $150,000. Perhaps the lobbyists don't count. It is what Trump think and does that matters, and his personal equation with the leaders of the countries". He also shared a photo of a Times of India report by Chidanand Rajghatta.

Jason Miller served as spokesman for the 2016 Trump Presidential Campaign and the Trump Transition Team. Keith Schiller worked as Deputy Assistant to President Trump and Director of Oval Office Operations.

The obvious reason for the two South Asian nations to pick these men is that they have both been close to President Trump. It is not clear how influential these individuals have been in the recent decisions by the Trump administration in imposing vastly different levels of tariffs on India (50%) and Pakistan (19%). It could also have been other factors such as the substance of trade negotiations and India disputing President Trump's role in bringing about the India-Pakistan ceasefire after a 4-day war in May, 2025, that influenced Trump's decisions.

A Financial Times story appears to suggest that Pakistan's crypto deal with World Liberty Financial, a Trump-backed cryptocurrency venture. Here's an excerpt from the FT story: "Zach Witkoff, the son of US special envoy Steve Witkoff, said during the trip that Pakistan had “trillions of dollars” of mineral wealth ripe for tokenization. Since then, Bilal bin Saqib, Pakistan’s minister for crypto and blockchain, has emerged as a shadow diplomat, taking part in trade talks with Washington and pitching Pakistan’s crypto potential to figures close to Trump’s family and advisers. Pakistani officials also point to their conduct during the May conflict with India as having bolstered their credibility with Trump".

FT story quotes Marvin Weinbaum, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, as saying: “Pakistan is a rare country that is friends with China, Iran, the Gulf states, to a lesser extent Russia, and now, again, the US....The US sees (Pakistan's Military Chief) Munir as someone who can play a useful strategic role, and the Pakistanis keep their lines open to everyone but know to pull back when one relationship is clashing with another.”

Saturday, April 12, 2025

Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum Draws Interest of Global Investors

Pakistan's mineral resources, estimated to be over $6 trillion, attracted global investor interest at the Pakistan Minerals Investors Forum 2025 (PMIF2025) held recently in Islamabad on April 8th and 9th. It was attended by major international companies and government officials from Australia, Canada, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, the US and other nations.

Pakistan is known to have large deposits of critical minerals from copper and gold to lithium. Canadian Mining Journal has described the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan as "Saudi Arabia of lithium". These deposits are found in various parts of the country, including Balochistan, Gilgit, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, and the Exclusive Economic Zone of Pakistan's coastal waters. The Geological Survey of Pakistan also notes the potential of lithium in LCT-type pegmatites and super arid salt lakes. Pakistan's major lithium-bearing areas are found in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Tribal Areas (FATA), contributing about 85% of the country's lithium production.

Pakistan Minerals Map. Source: ResearchGate

The Trump administration is interested in working with Pakistan to explore the potential for cooperation in meeting the US needs for critical minerals. "Critical minerals are the raw materials necessary for our most advanced technologies," said Eric Meyer, a senior official for the Department of State's Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, who attended the PMIF2025 in Islamabad. He said Pakistan's "vast mineral potential" can benefit the United States as he highlighted the White House's strategic priority to secure diverse and reliable sources of critical minerals.

Eric Meyer's participation in the PMIF2025 was preceded by a phone call from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. After the call, the US State Department readout said, "The Secretary raised prospects for engagement on critical minerals and expressed interest in expanding commercial opportunities for U.S. companies".

In January of this year, Gentry Beach, an American billionaire investor and a close Trump ally, visited Pakistan to look for investment opportunities in the mining sector. Upon his return to the United States, Beach praised Pakistan government’s policies as “favorable for business and investment" and expressed keen interest in investing across various sectors. In a viral TikTok video of his speech at Trump's Florida home at Mar a Lago, Gentry said, " Last week, I had the benefit of visiting Pakistan, an amazing country.....unfortunately, the previous administration (Biden administration), burned every possible bridge they could, they even put sanctions on Pakistan, a close US ally... they (Pakistanis) have sacrificed so much for the American people....Pakistan is a country that we (US) need to build a strong bridge to and partnership with".

Pakistan has one of the world’s largest porphyry copper-gold mineral zones. The Reko Diq mine in southwestern Balochistan province has an estimated 5.9 billion tons of copper ore. At current prices, the value of copper and gold deposits at Reko Diq in Balochistan province is nearly $200 billion. It is expected to generate $70 billion in free cash flow and $90 billion in operating cash flow over 37 years.

Barrick Gold CEO Mark Bristow has said he’s “super excited” about the company’s Reko Diq copper-gold development in Pakistan. Speaking about the Pakistani mining project at a conference in the US State of Colorado, the South Africa-born Bristow said “This is like the early days in Chile, the Escondida discoveries and so on”, according to Mining.com, a leading industry publication. "It has enormous upside potential". He was referring to Pakistan’s untapped discovery potential. Escondida was the first discovery of copper in Chile which is now the world's largest producer and exporter of copper. Last year, the South American country exported nearly $20 billion worth of copper.

“Copper has no substitutes,” Bristow continued. “It is as strategic as gold is precious, and we’re bringing new copper projects online just as the supply squeeze hits.” Comparing Reko Diq to Escondida, he said "walking across, there's more than one porphyry, significantly more than one, it's a real endowment for the people of Balochistan and greater Pakistan". "It (Reko Diq) is world class, a gold mine on its own and a copper mine on its own". He expects a peak of 10,000 jobs during construction and 5,500-6,000 direct jobs to operate the Reko Diq mine afterwards. It will also create a lot of indirect job opportunities in the supply chain. "We are going to demonstrate (in Balochistan) that you can do something transformatory, both socially and economically".

The biggest foreign investor in Pakistan's mining sector is Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold with a projected investment of $5 billion. It is followed by the Saudi Manara Minerals with $540 million. World Bank's investment arm IFC has committed $300 million for Reko Diq. Pakistan's state-owned OGDCL has recently announced it is increasing its investment in Reko Diq to $627 million.

The biggest challenge Pakistan faces is one of security in the remote areas where its mineral resources are located. Pakistani military chief General Asim Munir believes he can deal with it effectively. He made assurances to investors that his forces will ensure security. Another challenge is one of lack of political stability which is a matter of great concern to investors.

Monday, September 13, 2021

Can Afghanistan Satisfy Tech Industries' Insatiable Appetite For Rare Earths?

Afghanistan is rich! The world's "poorest country" is known to have trillions of dollars worth of rare earths and other minerals buried underground. Rare earths are essential for the global supply chain of the technology industry. They are considered a "critical resource" for US national security.

Afghan Mineral Resources. Source: Aljazeera

A US Defense Department report has described Afghanistan as "Saudi Arabia of Lithium". Pakistan, too, is believed to be rich in rare earths. Peace and security are key to unlocking the potential mineral riches in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. That is where both nations need to focus for a brighter future for their peoples.

Uses of Rare Earth Elements. Source: Natural Resources of Canada

Rare earth elements (REEs) are a group of 15 elements referred to as the lanthanide series in the periodic table of elements. Scandium and yttrium, while not true REEs, are also included in this categorization because they exhibit similar properties to the lanthanides and are found in the same ore bodies. REEs are key components in many electronic devices that we use in our daily lives, as well as in a variety of industrial applications, according to the Natural Resources of Canada website.

Rare Elements in the Periodic Table

Rare earth elements go into a variety of industrial applications, including electronics, clean energy, aerospace, automotive and defense. Permanent magnets alone account for 38% of total forecasted demand for rare earths. Rapid growth in Lithium-Ion batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) represents another major opportunity for Afghanistan. The Chinese appear ready to invest billions of US dollars in Afghanistan to extract this wealth. The extension of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) infrastructure into Afghanistan can facilitate the export of these minerals through Pakistani ports in Gwadar and Karachi.

The Afghan mineral wealth was first discovered and mapped by Russian geologists during the Soviet occupation of the country in the 1980s. These maps were used by American geologists from the US Geological Survey in 2010 to conduct aerial surveys using P-3 Orion naval patrol aircrafts equipped with sensors. A US Defense Department report written soon after this discovery called Afghanistan "Saudi Arabia of Lithium".

With the Taliban request to join China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China appears to be the leading candidate to win mining rights for rare earths in Afghanistan. Already, China has acquired rights to develop copper mining at Aynak Copper Field in Afghanistan. Back in 2007, China Metallurgical Group agreed to invest billions of dollars in the project and related infrastructure development -- including the construction of a coal-fired electrical power plant and what would be Afghanistan's first freight railway, according to a Radio Free Europe report. Geologists estimate that Aynak is the world's largest undeveloped copper field.

Pakistan's Balochistan province, too, is believed to be rich in rare earth elements. Here is how an expert who asked not to be named explained the mining potential in Balochistan:

"The Pegmatite rock that covers much of Balochistan (and other parts of Pakistan as well) has several different gems, in it which have been mined for a long time. These are easy to visualize as they differ in color from the rest of the rock, and can be removed with a small geologist's hammer. Pegmatite, though, also contains uranium which can be separated using a Geiger Counter, and rare metals and rare earths. Some of these like Lithium can be separated relatively easily. Others like Samarium and Dysprosium are vastly more difficult to separate because you need X-Ray equipment to help identify them. Also, their presence is very small - that is why they are classed as "rare." The presence of many of these metals was not known to science until recently and until the Japanese began to use them in electronics, hardly any effort was made to mine them. Now, of course, they are all the rage because they have been found especially useful in the latest "green" generation equipment as well as in defense and other applications. Indeed, until China banned their sale to Japan, no one really even bothered about them - it suited the Japanese to remain quiet as they were getting very good prices for these resources from an unaware Chinese, and the same thing is now happening in other parts of the world, in Pakistan in this case. Much of the testing that is involved here is difficult and requires very advanced technical equipment, and even methods like gas spectrometry etc may not help identify materials that exist in extremely small percentages in soil or rock. In India for example, some of these metal reserves were not known until the USGS first and then the Russians helped analyze soil and rocks across the country. If nothing else, the Indians formed a government owned company called Indian Rare earths Limited which comes under the Atomic Energy Commission and is directly under the Prime Minister of India. They do seem to have handled the conservation and exploitation of these reserves far better than is being done in Pakistan."

Peace and security are key to unlocking the potential mineral riches in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. That is where both nations need to focus on for a brighter future for their peoples.