Tuesday, August 30, 2016

History of US-India Partnership

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision to skip the upcoming Non-Aligned Summit in Venezuela sends a powerful signal of his Hindu Nationalist government's growing commitment to India's partnership with the United States.

The latest logistics deal allowing the US forces to use Indian military bases is an indication of how the Americans intend to play the India card against China after the Cold War,  just as they played the China card against the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

The US-India deal is part of the  US “pivot” to Asia designed to check rising China. The U.S. Navy plans to deploy 60 percent of its surface ships in Asia in the near future. Instead of having to build facilities virtually from the ground up, as in Afghanistan and Iraq, the U.S. has the benefit of simple arrangements for the tremendous Indian facilities, according to Forbes magazine. This deal will accelerate the unfolding post Col-War realignment taking place in South Asia.

Massive Western Aid to India:

US-India ties are not new. India has been the number one recipient of US aid since 1947, according to the US government data.   The country India's first Prime Minister turned to for help during the 1962 China-India war was also the United States.



India has received $65.1 billion in US aid since its independence, making it the top recipient of American economic assistance. Pakistan, with its $44.4 billion, is at number 5 on the list.  US data also shows that Pakistan is not among top 10 for military or total economic and military aid.



More recently, the US aid to India has been replaced by massive US investment in the country that keeps its economy afloat. Massive western money inflows help India, with its huge trade deficits, pay for its imports and help maintain significant foreign exchange reserves. U.S. investment in India has jumped 500% in the past two years, according to the Wall Street Journal.

US Help in 1962 Indo-China War:

Indian Prime Minister Nehru sought significant US material aid and diplomatic help as the Indian troops were in full retreat in the 1962 China-India war.  A former US intelligence official Bruce Riedel in his book "JFK’s Forgotten Crisis: Tibet, the CIA and the Sino-Indian War" notes that President John F. Kennedy played a “decisive role” in “forestalling a Pakistani attack” on India, even as Islamabad then was fully capable of going to war with India to wrest the disputed territory of Kashmir.

India's Pakistan Obsession:

The US efforts to partner with India are clearly aimed to check China's rise. However, India's actions and statements suggest that it expects to use this partnership to against Pakistan.

Anticipating questions about US-Pakistan ties during his India visit, here's what Carter told Council of Foreign Relation in Washington D.C. before leaving for New Delhi:

“I’m sure I’ll be asked about it in India, but I think the first thing one needs to say from an American policy point of view, these (India and Pakistan) are both respected partners and friends.”

"Pakistan is an important security partner", Carter added.

Pakistan-China Ties: 

While US is courting India to check China's rise, the China-Pakistan ties have now moved well beyond “higher than Himalayas and sweeter than honey,” as officials on both sides say. Chinese strategists openly talk of Pakistan as their nation’s only real ally. And China is investing heavily in Pakistan to build the Gwadar deep sea port as part of a much more ambitious and strategic China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that India is attempting sabotage.

The result is that Pakistan is drawing closer to China, a rising superpower, while its rival India is partnering with the United States, a superpower in relative decline on the world stage.

Let me conclude with a quote from from Brookings' Stephen Cohen on India-Pakistan power equation:

“One of the most important puzzles of India-Pakistan relations is not why the smaller Pakistan feels encircled and threatened, but why the larger India does. It would seem that India, seven times more populous than Pakistan and five times its size, and which defeated Pakistan in 1971, would feel more secure. This has not been the case and Pakistan remains deeply embedded in Indian thinking. There are historical, strategic, ideological, and domestic reasons why Pakistan remains the central obsession of much of the Indian strategic community, just as India remains Pakistan’s.”

Here's a video discussion on the subject:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sfliv7KJVM




http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x45590s_pak-leaders-in-london-us-india-defense-deals-trump-vs-gop_news



Pak Leaders in London; US-India Defense Deals... by ViewpointFromOverseas

https://vimeo.com/163190180


Pak Leaders in London; US-India Defense Deals; Trump vs GOP from Ikolachi on Vimeo.



Related Links:

Haq's Musings

India's Pakistan Obsession

Can India Survive Without Wester Money?

India's Superpower Delusion: Modi's Policy Blunders

Does Pakistan Really Need F-16s to Fight Terror? 

Pakistan-Russia-China vs India-Japan-US?

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Gwadar: Hong Kong West for China?

Indian Agent Kulbhushan Yadav's Confession

Sunday, August 28, 2016

Pakistan's Thar Desert Riding CPEC Development Wave

Thar, one of the least developed regions of Pakistan, is seeing unprecedented development activity in energy and infrastructure projects.  New roads, airports and buildings are being built along with coal mines and power plants. There are construction workers and machinery visible everywhere in the desert. Along with renewed hopes for the region and its people, development boom is also raising concerns about the environment and its impact on the residents.

Thar Coal Development. Photo Credit: Amar Guriro 


Thar Development Projects:

The Tharparker District or simply the Thar Desert is located in the southeastern province of Sindh. It is  receiving a lot of attention because the desert sands hide an estimated 175 billion tons of coal underneath.

In December 2015, China agreed to invest $1.2 billion to develop Thar coal and establish a 660 MW coal-fired power plant.

The coal deposits are divided into 12 blocks, each containing approximately 2 billion tons. In the first phase the Sindh provincial government has allocated block II to Pakistan's Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company (SECMC) to excavate 1.57 billion tons of coal and build a 660 megawatt power plant. The plant is expected to provide power to the Pakistani national grid by June 2019. Later expansion to produce 1,320 MW of power is also planned.

Muhammad Makki, a doctoral student at the University of Queensland in Australia, recently visited the region.  Makki saw "signs of a resource boom already animating the dull landscape of the region – roads, airports, site offices, power lines, guest houses and rising real estate price are evident".

Thar Population:

The region has a population of 1.6 million. Most of the residents are cattle herders. Majority of them are Hindus.  The area is home to 7 million cows, goats, sheep and camel. It provides more than half of the milk, meat and leather requirement of the province. Many residents live in poverty. They are vulnerable to recurring droughts.  About a quarter of them live where the coal mines are being developed, according to a report in The Wire.

Some of them are now being employed in development projects.  Makki saw an underground coal gasification pilot project near the town of Islamkot where "workers sourced from local communities rested their heads after long-hour shifts".

In the first phase, Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company (SECMC) is relocating 5 villages that are located in block II.  SECMC is paying villagers for their homes and agricultural land.

SECMC’s chief executive officer, Shamsuddin Ahmed Shaikh, says his company "will construct model towns with all basic facilities including schools, healthcare, drinking water and filter plants and also allocate land for livestock grazing,” according to thethirdpole.net He says that the company is paying villagers above market prices for their land – Rs. 185,000 ($ 1,900) per acre.

Impact to Date:

Islamabad-based Pakistani economist Dr. Pervez Tahir recently visited and found that "the impact of the road, augmented by mobile connectivity, is multidimensional" Here's an excerpt of what he wrote in The Express Tribune:

"Walking long distances has given way to motorbikes and overloaded buses have taken the place of kekras, the rickety shuttle truck-bus of the World War II vintage. Children suffering from malnutrition and other ailments are reported directly to the media as well as the hospital in Mithi on mobile phones. The high numbers of the suffering children had always existed; only the media was late in discovering these cases. The media attention did bring politicians and bureaucrats to the region, facilitated of course by the road. The hospital in Mithi is now much better staffed and well-stocked with medicines. It is now a thriving town with a good number of schools and a college. Even an English-medium private school was in evidence. A sub-campus of a university is also coming up. Locals complained about the lack of girls schools, especially at the post-primary level. This is a sign of growing awareness. There was also frustration that the locals are not given the party tickets for the National and Provincial assembly seats. Mobile connectivity and the road have linked the famous craftswomen of Thar with the main markets much more effectively. At a community meeting in Islam Kot, women were quoting prices that broadly corresponded with the prices charged in Karachi’s Zeb un Nisa Street."

Summary:

Thar development boom is part of Pakistan's efforts to solve its energy crisis as part of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects. It is stimulating a lot of economic activity in Tharparker region that will impact the local population and the environment. Sindh government and the companies working there claim that they are trying to maximize benefits for the region and the country while mitigating any problems associated with it. It's important that they live up to their claims.

Here's a video report by Amar Guriro:

https://vimeo.com/179874726

Pakistan’s coal expansion brings misery to villagers in Thar desert from thethirdpole on Vimeo.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Thar Drought

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Abundant, Cheap Coal Electricity For Pakistan

Mobile Connectivity in Pakistan

Pakistan Sees Robust Growth in Consumption of Energy, Cement and Steel

Politcal Stability Returns to Pakistan

Auto and Cement Demand Growth in Pakistan

Pakistan's Red Hot Air Travel Market

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor FDI

Mobile Broadband Subscriptions and Smartphone Sales

Pakistan in MSCI Emerging Market Index

Thursday, August 25, 2016

India's Pakistan Phobia

Why is India's Hindu leadership so paranoid about Pakistan and Pakistanis?   Let us examine the source of India's Pakistan phobia by looking at a series of events in South Asia and various statements made by analysts, strategists and Hindu leaders across the political spectrum.

While the Muslim League led by Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah accepted the British Cabinet Mission's plan of May 16, 1946 to grant broad autonomy to states within united India, the Hindu-dominated Indian National Congress rejected it.

The Cabinet Mission plan envisaged a united independent India with the Muslim-majority provinces grouped together with Sind, Punjab,Baluchistan and North-West Frontier Province forming one group, and Bengal and Assam forming another. It provided for the Hindu-majority provinces in central and southern India to form another group.  It gave the central government in Delhi the power to handle defense, currency, and diplomacy, and the rest of powers and responsibility to the provinces, coordinated by groups.

After rejecting the Cabinet Mission plan, the Hindu leadership proceeded to vehemently oppose the inevitable creation of Pakistan in 1947.


The Partition:

Since its unsuccessful bid to stop the Partition in 1947, the Hindu leadership of India has made every effort to make Pakistan fail, starting with the division of assets of British India. Pakistan was allocated 17.5% of the assets and liabilities. Cash was held by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that delayed the transfer of Rs. 750 million for several months after the partition in an attempt to strangle newborn Pakistan in its cradle. In addition, Pakistan was allocated 165,000 tons of military hardware of which Pakistan received only about 20,000 tons by September 1948.  The rest of the 145,000 tons never came to Pakistan.

Why is it that India has worked hard to make Pakistan fail? To answer this question, let us look at how various leaders, strategists and analysts see the India-Pakistan relationship:

Washington-based think tank Brookings Institution's Stephen Cohen:

 “One of the most important puzzles of India-Pakistan relations is not why the smaller Pakistan feels encircled and threatened, but why the larger India does. It would seem that India, seven times more populous than Pakistan and five times its size, and which defeated Pakistan in 1971, would feel more secure. This has not been the case and Pakistan remains deeply embedded in Indian thinking. There are historical, strategic, ideological, and domestic reasons why Pakistan remains the central obsession of much of the Indian strategic community, just as India remains Pakistan’s.”




Hindu RSS leader M.S. Golwalkar described as "worthy of worship" by current Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi: 

"Ever since that evil day, when Moslems first landed in Hindustan, right up to the present moment, the Hindu Nation has been gallantly fighting on to take on these despoilers. The Race Spirit has been awakening.”

Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru's Defense Minister Krishna Menon:

"In Pakistan's view the Partition is only the beginning. Her idea is to get a jumping-off ground to take the whole of India.....it was from the Mughals that the British took over (India). Now the British having gone, they (Muslims) must come back (to rule all of India)"

India's ex National Security Advisor and Foreign Secretary J.N. Dixit:

"The reason Britain partitioned India was to fragment Hindu areas into political entities and ensure Pakistan's emergence as the largest and most cohesive political power in the subcontinent. Pakistan's ultimate aim is to fragment India. Pakistani invasion of Kashmir in 1948 and subsequent wars are part of this continuous exercise. The Kargil war and the proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir are the latest example of this pressure. India has not been decisive and surgical in resisting Pakistani subversion. India has voluntarily given concessions to Pakistan despite defeating it in all major conflicts. Pakistan's long term objective is to ensure that India does not emerge as the most influential power in the South Asian region. The Pakistani power structure has a powerful antagonism toward Hindu-majority civil society in India. Pakistan has sought the support of a large number of Muslim countries and Asian and Western powers (China and the US) to keep India on the defensive. Pakistan's continued questioning of Indian secularism, democracy and constitutional institutions is a deliberate attempt to generate friction within India. Pakistani support of the secessionist and insurgent forces in Jammu and Kashmir, in Punjab and in the north-eastern states of India confirms this impression."

Summary: 

India's Hindu leadership continues to live under the long shadow cast by centuries of Muslim rule of the Subcontinent. Many independent historians believe that India's Muslim rulers were generally quite benevolent, a characterization contested  particularly by right-wing Hindu followers of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. They see present-day Pakistan as an extension of India's Muslim rule and fear being dominated by Muslims yet again, a fear articulated by India's first defense minister Krishna Menon. India's Hindu leadership needs to overcome this irrational fear to work with Pakistan to build the foundations of a better and more peaceful future for their children in South Asia.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Indian Agent Kulbhushan Yadav's Confession

Has Modi Stepped Up India's Covert War in Pakistan?

Ex India Spy Documents Successful RAW Ops in Pakistan

London Police Document Confirms MQM-RAW Connection Testimony

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Ajit Doval Lecture on "How to Tackle Pakistan" 

Chabahar Port

Monday, August 22, 2016

Pakistan's Travel & Tourism Industry Boom

Pakistan's travel and tourism industry is booming with significant improvement in security situation. In 2015, it contributed 7% of Pakistan's GDP.  It includes foreign and domestic travel and tourism spending or employment in the equivalent economy-wide concept in the published national income accounts or labour market statistics.

There are are multiple indicators showing this industry will contribute more this year. Growth in air travel and hotel occupancy are among the top indicators of travel and travel and tourism industry growth.

Pakistan Hotel Occupancy Source: Express Tribune

Hotel Occupancy:

“The rate of hotel occupancy has surged to 80% across the country compared to 35% before the current calendar year started,” said Beach Luxury Hotel Director Business Development Rehan Wahid, according to report in the Express Tribune newspaper. “Hotels in Islamabad and Lahore are fully booked most of the days. However, this is yet to happen in Karachi,” he said.

Thanks to the ramp-up of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor  (CPEC) related projects, Gwadar is leading the way for new hotel construction with permits issued for least 5 new 5-star hotels so far in the new port city.   These include a 250-room hotel apartment project of the management of Pearl Continental Hotels and another one of the Bahria Group. Gwadar Airport growth of 73% was the fastest of all airports in Pakistan.

Air Travel: 

Pakistan air travel market is among the fastest growing in the world.  IATA (International Air Transport Association) forecasts Pakistan domestic air travel will grow at least 9.5% per year, more than 2X faster than the world average annual growth rate of 4.1% over the next 20 years. The Indian and Brazilian domestic markets will grow at 6.9% and 5.4% respectively.

Pakistan saw 23% growth in airline passengers in 2015, according to Anna Aero publication. Several new airports began operations or expanded and each saw double digit growth in passengers. However,  Gwadar Airport growth of 73% was the fastest of all airports in Pakistan.

The top 12 airports all saw large double digit increases. Multan  grew 64%, Quetta 62% and Faisalabad +61% all climbing one place as a result of all of them seeing a growth of over 60%. Turbat Airport in Balochistan is the newest airport to reach the top 12 in terms of traffic.

Security Situation: 

The key reason for travel and tourism boom is significant improvement in the security situation since the launch of Pakistan Army anti-terror campaign called Zarb-e-Azb. Civilian deaths have been cut from 2,378 in 2011 to 412 this year until August 14, 2016. Total number of deaths, including civilians and security personnel, have been reduced from 11,704 in 2009 to 1232 so far in 2016, according to South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP.org)
Terrorism-Related Deaths in Pakistan Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal


Summary:

Hotel occupancy rates have risen from just 35% in 2015 to 80% this year. Air travel is growing rapidly with IATA forecasting Pakistan to be among the world's fastest growing air travel markets. All airports in the country, including several new ones, are seeing double digit increases in the number of passengers flying in and out of them. Improved security since the start of Operation Zarb e Azb and political stability are underpinning growing confidence in Pakistan.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan Sees Robust Growth in Consumption of Energy, Cement and Steel

Politcal Stability Returns to Pakistan

Auto and Cement Demand Growth in Pakistan

Pakistan's Red Hot Air Travel Market

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor FDI

Mobile Broadband Subscriptions and Smartphone Sales

Pakistan in MSCI Emerging Market Index

Sunday, August 14, 2016

India's Role in Quetta Bombing; Official "Muslim Terror" Stats

Who is responsible for the Quetta hospital bombing that killed 70 lawyers in Pakistan? Can the Pakistani security establishment get away by blaming RAW for the attacks? Who is ultimately responsible for the security of the Pakistani citizens?

Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal

Are the culprits of terror attacks in Pakistan entirely homegrown? Who funded them? Is the Pakistani security establishment serious in fighting the Taliban? Is there foreign involvement? Are Indian and Afghan intelligence agencies involved? Should the Pakistani citizens now talk directly talk to the foreign intelligence agencies and ask the foreign hand for mercy? What has Indian NSA Ajit Doval said about using the Taliban to wage proxy war against Pakistan? Should the Pakistan Army let things happen the way Doval wanted things to happen? What have American officials and analysts been saying about India's role in Pakistan terror? Should Pakistanis use this as an excuse for the ongoing terrorist attacks? What did Indian agent Kulbhushan Yadav tell the Pakistani authorities? Does that statement prove the might of the Indian intelligence agencies and the impotence of the Pakistanis? What can and must Pakistan do to end this reign of terror?

Is it true that all terrorists are Muslims, especially in the last two years? What do the official statistics say about Muslims' involvement in terrorist attacks in Europe and America? Are those statistics valid for the last two years? Why do the older official stats differ so much from the news media reporting of acts of terror in the West, in the recent past? Is there disproportionate media coverage of terror acts involving Muslim perpetrators?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with panelists Ali Hasan Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)


https://youtu.be/tVIQ9U8jOEs





https://vimeo.com/178837620


India's Role in Quetta Bombing; Official 'Muslim Terror' Stats from Ikolachi on Vimeo.


Related Links:

Haq's Musings

India's Sponsorship of Terror in Pakistan

Indian Agent Kulbhushan Yadav's Confession

Has Modi Stepped Up India's Covert War in Pakistan?

Ex India Spy Documents Successful RAW Ops in Pakistan

London Police Document Confirms MQM-RAW Connection Testimony

Ajit Doval Lecture on "How to Tackle Pakistan" 

Talk4Pak Think Tank

VPOS Youtube Channel

VPOS Vimeo Channel


Saturday, August 13, 2016

India's 70th Independence Day: Is "Make in India" All Hype?

Some of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's supporters claim that his "Make in India" campaign has brought India to the verge of becoming a manufacturing behemoth 69 years after the nation's independence. Others claim India is already a manufacturing powerhouse. Let's examine these claims based on data.

Manufacturing Ranking:

While India now ranks 6th in the world in terms of total manufacturing output, it still sits at a very low 142nd position terms of manufacturing value added per capita, according to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization's Industrial Development Report 2016.  Pakistan's manufacturing value added is ranked 146th by the same report.


Manufacturing Output:

India's 3% share of the world's total manufacturing output puts it at a distant sixth position behind China's 24%, United States' 17%,  Japan's 16%, Germany's 7% and South Korea's 4%.

The UNIDO data shows that India's manufacturing value added (MVA) per capita at constant 2005 prices increased from US$155.73 in 2005 to $168.42 in 2014.   However, as percentage of GDP at constant 2005 prices in US$, India's MVA decreased from 15.10% in 2005 to 13.85% in 2014

UNIDO reports that Pakistan manufacturing value added (MVA) per capita at constant 2005 prices increased from US$135.03 in 2005 to $143.84 in 2014. Its  MVA as percentage of GDP at constant 2005 prices in US$ decreased from 18.05% in 2005 to 17.41% in 2014.

India's manufacturing output declined 0.7% in April-June 2016-17

Make in India:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recognized how far behind India is in the manufacturing sector. His government's highly publicized "Make in India" is designed to Change that.

What does India, or for that matter any other developing country, need to boost its manufacturing output? Most experts agree on two essential pre-requisites for industrial development:

1. Energy and Infrastructure

2. Skilled Manpower

China's rapid industrialization over the last few decades has shown that the focus must be on the above two to achieve desired results. Has India learned from the Chinese experience? Let's examine this question.

Energy and Infrastructure Development:

"Infrastructure is the biggest hurdle to the ambitious Make in India program of the government," Standard and Poor Global Ratings Credit Analyst Abhishek Dangra told reporters on a conference call,  according to India's Economic Times publication.

"The government is scaling up spending, but its heavy debt burden could derail its ambitions to improve public infrastructure," the Standard and Poor report said.

India suffers from huge energy deficit. Over 300 million of India’s 1.25 billion people live without electricity.  Another 250 million get only spotty power from India’s aging grid, with availability limited to three or four hours a day, according to an MIT Energy Report. The lack of electricity affects rural and urban areas alike, limiting efforts to advance both living standards and the country’s manufacturing sector.

Skilled Manpower:

“India doesn’t have a labor shortage—it has a skilled labor shortage,” said Tom Captain, global aerospace and defense industry leader at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

The WSJ report said that over 80% of engineers in India are “unemployable,” according to Aspiring Minds, an Indian employability assessment firm that did a a study of 150,000 engineering students at 650 engineering colleges in the country.

NPR's Julie McCarthy reported recently that ten million Indians enter the workforce every year. But according to the Labour Bureau, eight labor-intensive sectors, including automobiles, created only 135,000 jobs last year, the lowest in seven years.

Impact on Agriculture: 

Prime Minister Modi's focus on manufacturing is talking away resources and attention from India's farmers who are killing themselves at a rate of one every 30 minutes.

Majority of Indian farmers depend on rain to grow crops, making them highly vulnerable to changes in weather patterns. As a comparison, the percentage of irrigated agricultural land in Pakistan is twice that India.

More than half of India's labor force is engaged in agriculture. Value added per capita is among the lowest in the world. Pakistan's agriculture value added per capita is about twice India's. This is the main cause of high levels of poverty across India.

Chinese Experience:

China has shown that it is possible to make huge strides in manufacturing while at the same time achieve high productivity levels in agriculture.

On the manufacturing front, China has taken care of the basics like energy, infrastructure and skilled manpower development to achieve phenomenal growth.

As part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) development, Pakistanis are learning from the Chinese to replicate success in manufacturing.

The first phases of CPEC are focused on building power plants, gas pipelines, rail lines, roads and ports at a cost of $46 billion. At the same time, China and Pakistan are also focussing on skills training via vocational schools and Pakistan-China Education Corridor. These projects will lay the foundation necessary to ramp up manufacturing in Pakistan.

Summary:

Both India and Pakistan want to emulate the success of China in the manufacturing sector. The Chinese experience has shown that development of energy, infrastructure and skilled labor are essential to achieve their manufacturing ambitions. The South Asians must move beyond hype to do the hard work necessary for it. Pakistan is working with China via CPEC to make progress toward becoming a manufacturing powerhouse.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Auto Industry in India and Pakistan

UN Industrial Development Report 2016

Indian Farmer Suicides

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Robust Energy Demand Growth in Pakistan

Human Capital Development in Pakistan


Thursday, August 11, 2016

Did Pakistan's Founder Envision an Islamic Republic?

"Who am I to give you the constitution? The Prophet of Islam had given us a constitution 1300 years ago." Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah

Did Quaid-e-Azam envision Pakistan as an Islamic Republic? What constitution was he referring to when he said "the Prophet of Islam had given us a constitution 1300 years ago"? These questions need to be explored and answered to understand what Pakistan's founder intended.


Misaq-e-Madina:

The Islamic state the Prophet of Islam established 1400 years ago was the state of Madina. The constitution of this state is referred to as "Misaq-e-Madina" or the Charter of Madina.  Let's examine the contents of this document.


Here's the opening line of Misaq-e-Madina:

"This is a document from Muhammad the Prophet (may Allah bless him and grant him peace), governing relations between the Believers i.e. Muslims of Quraysh and Yathrib and those who followed them and worked hard with them. They form one nation -- Ummah."

It clearly says that all citizens of "Yathrib" (ancient name of Madina), regardless of  their tribe or religion, are part of one nation--"Ummah". So the word "Ummah" here does not exclude non-Muslims.

Further into the "Misaq" document, it says: "No Jew will be wronged for being a Jew. The enemies of the Jews who follow us will not be helped. If anyone attacks anyone who is a party to this Pact the other must come to his help."

The Mesaq assures equal protection to all citizens of Madina, including non-Muslim tribes which agreed to it. The contents of Misaq-e-Madina, Islam's first constitution approved by Prophet Mohammad 1400 years ago, appear to have inspired Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah vision of Pakistan where people of all religions and nationalities live in harmony with equal rights and protections under the law.

Quai-e-Azam's Pluralistic Vision:

Pakistan's founder's pluralistic vision is reflected in the word's of what he described as Prophet Muhammad's constitution. It is also found in Quaid-e-Azam's other speeches that are mistakenly seen by some as conflicting with his quote: "Who am I to give you the constitution? The Prophet of Islam had given us a constitution 1300 years ago."

Here is another quote that reaffirm Jinnah's pluralistic vision of Pakistan:

"You are free; you are free to go to your temples, you are free to go to your mosques or to any other place of worship in this State of Pakistan. You may belong to any religion or caste or creed that has nothing to do with the business of the State"


Two-Nation-Theory:

Some might now ask what was the need for the Two-Nation-Theory given the above vision of the Quaid? The Quaid's search for Pakistan as an independent state for Muslims was inspired to give India's minority Muslims better opportunities to grow and prosper. While it's true that Pakistan has not lived up to the Quaid's expectations, it is also true that, in spite of all their problems, Muslims in Pakistan are still much better off  than their counterparts in India.

The growing intolerance in Modi's India and the Indian government commission headed by former Indian Chief Justice Rajendar Sachar confirm that Muslims are the new untouchables in caste-ridden and communal India. Indian Muslims suffer heavy discrimination in almost every field from  education and housing to jobs.  Their incarceration rates are also much higher than their Hindu counterparts.

According to Sachar Commission report, Muslims are now worse off than the Dalit caste, or those called untouchables. Some 52% of Muslim men are unemployed, compared with 47% of Dalit men. Among Muslim women, 91% are unemployed, compared with 77% of Dalit women. Almost half of Muslims over the age of 46 ca not read or write. While making up 11% of the population, Muslims account for 40% of India’s prison population. Meanwhile, they hold less than 5% of government jobs.

Those who say that the Two-Nation-Theory died with the creation of Bangladesh in 1971 are wrong. They need to be reminded that the Lahore Resolution of March 23, 1940, in fact called for two "independent states", not "state", in Muslim majority areas of India in the north east and the north west. The other fact to remember is that Bangladesh did not choose to merge with India after separation from Pakistan.

Summary:

The Quaid-e-Azam sought to follow the Misaq-e-Madina, a very progressive and pluralistic charter, when he said, "who am I to give you the constitution? The Prophet of Islam had given us a constitution 1300 years ago." The rise of fanatic Hindu Nationalists in India and the worsening conditions of Indian Muslims have reinforced the rationale for the Quaid insisted on pursuit of the Two Nation Theory.  Pakistan has indeed been a great blessing for vast majority of Muslims who chose to make it their home.

Here are a couple of video discussions on this and other subjects:

http://vimeo.com/82796819

http://vimeo.com/103030587


Nawaz Sharif Govt Survival Questioned; ISIS Advances in Iraq from WBT TV on Vimeo.


Jinnah’s birthday, Bangladesh Independence, Abdul Qadir Molla hanging, Aam Aadmi Party success India from WBT TV on Vimeo.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Upwardly Mobile Pakistan

Jaswant Lauds Jinnah

Are Muslims Better Off in Jinnah's Pakistan?

Comparing Pakistan and Bangladesh

Is This a 1971 moment in Pakistan's History?

Is Pakistan Too Big to Fail?

Pakistan: A Great Blessing for Muslims


Monday, August 8, 2016

India's Role in Quetta Bombing: A Conspiracy Theory?

"How do you tackle Pakistan?.....We start working on Pakistan's vulnerabilities-- economic, internal security, political, isolating them internationally, it can be anything..... it can be defeating Pakistan's policies in Afghanistan...... You stop the terrorists by denying them weapons, funds and manpower. Deny them funds by countering with one-and-a-half times more funding. If they have 1200 crores give them 1800 crores and they are on our side...who are the Taliban fighting for? It's because they haven't got jobs or someone has misled them. The Taliban are mercenaries. So go for more of the covert thing (against Pakistan)..." Ajit Doval, India's National Security Advisor

Quetta, the capital of Pakistan's Balochistan province, has been hit by a major terrorist attack yet again with tragic consequences. At least 70 people, many of them lawyers, have been killed and scores more injured in a massive bomb bast at a hospital. The carnage has been met with shock and multiple claims of responsibility by various terrorist groups.



Balochistan government has accused India as the sponsor of this carnage. This charge has been dismissed by many, including Pakistan's liberal pundits, as just another "conspiracy theory".  Let's examine this in the light of the quote from India's National Security Advisor that I shared at the top of this piece.

What is Conspiracy Theory?

What is the origin of the term "conspiracy theory"? Who coined it and for what purpose? In April 1967, the CIA wrote a dispatch that coined the term “conspiracy theory” to attack anyone who challenged the "Official" narrative put out by the US government. The dispatch was marked “psych” – short for “psychological operations” or disinformation – and “CS” for the CIA’s “Clandestine Services” unit.

It's a testament to the power of the CIA disinformation ops that the term has gained such wide currency around the world.  It has become particularly popular among Pakistan's lazy liberal elite who use it as a substitute for serious research to get at the truth.

Pakistan Terror Fatalities Decline After Zarb e Azb Source: SATP 


Is India's Role in Balochistan Conspiracy Theory?

To answer this question, let us begin with a quote from former US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel who said: "India has always used Afghanistan as a second front against Pakistan. India has over the years been financing problems in Pakistan".

On what basis did Chuck Hagel make the statement about India's use of Afghan territory to attack Pakistan? Was he, too, just another victim of conspiracy theories? Off course not. Secretary Hagel had the benefit of intelligence briefings by the CIA given to him in multiple capacities: first as US Senate Intelligence committee member and then as US Defense Secretary.

Since Mr. Hagel made his statement, there has been further evidence of India's involvement in Balochistan with the recent arrest of Kulbhushan Yadv, a serving Indian Navy officer working under cover in Balochistan. Yadav has confessed to working with terrorists launching attacks in Pakistan.

US analyst Laura Rozen explained India-Taliban nexus as follows: "While the U.S. media has frequently reported on Pakistani ties to jihadi elements launching attacks in Afghanistan, it has less often mentioned that India supports insurgent forces attacking Pakistan, the former (US) intelligence official said. "The Indians are up to their necks in supporting the Taliban against the Pakistani government in Afghanistan and Pakistan," the former (US) intelligence official who served in both countries said. "The same anti-Pakistani forces in Afghanistan also shooting at American soldiers are getting support from India. India should close its diplomatic establishments in Afghanistan and get the Christ out of there."

Is India Using Iranian territory against Pakistan?

The arrest of Iran-based Indian agent Kulbhushan Yadav has also confirmed that India is using Chahbahar port project in Iran as cover for subversive actions in Pakistan.

The fact that India has used Iran to hurt Pakistan is not new. In 2009, American analyst and author Christine Fair said this: "Having visited the Indian mission in Zahedan, Iran, I can assure you they are not issuing visas as the main activity!"

History of Indian Covert Wars Against Pakistan:

What India is doing today to sponsor terror in Pakistan is not new. R.K. Yadav, a former intelligence officer in India's intelligence agency, has written an entire book titled "Mission R&AW" to document RAW's covert war against Pakistan. Yadav has detailed India's ties several Pakistani leaders including Khan Abul Wali Khan and Shaikh Mujib ur Rehman. He has confirmed the veracity of "Agartala Conspiracy" that was dismissed as a "conspiracy theory" back in 1960s. Yadav has documented how Indian Army and intelligence officers organized, equipped and trained Mukti Bahini before India invaded East Pakistan in 1971.

Summary:

Indian involvement in sponsoring terrorism in Pakistan is not a "conspiracy theory". There is large and growing evidence of it.  Ex US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has talked about it. Several US analysts have detailed it. Kulbhushan Yadav, a serving Indian Navy Officer, arrested in Balochistan has confessed to it. Revelation of London Police documents linking MQM leader to Indian funding shows it. Statements made by Ajit Doval back in 2014 and his later appointment as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's lend credence to it. So does India's past behavior against Pakistan as acknowledged in "Mission R&AW", a book by ex RAW officer R.K. Yadav.

Next Steps:

Pakistan can not win its war against terrorism by just fighting the various terrorist groups including the Taliban militants and Baloch insurgents and their allies engaged in frequent large-scale carnage on Pakistani soil. These groups are merely tools of India's covert war machine. Pakistan must beef up its counter-intelligence efforts to defeat India's intelligence operations by infiltrating them. Pakistan must do everything possible to defeat India's covert war.

Here's a video discussion on the subject:

https://youtu.be/tVIQ9U8jOEs





https://vimeo.com/178837620


Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Indian Agent Kubhushan Yadav's Confession

Has Modi Stepped Up India's Covert War in Pakistan?

Ex India Spy Documents Successful RAW Ops in Pakistan

London Police Document Confirms MQM-RAW Connection Testimony

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Ajit Doval Lecture on "How to Tackle Pakistan" 

Chabahar Port

Friday, August 5, 2016

IndoPak Saudi Workers Troubles; Trump's Popularity in India; GOP Infighting

What is happening to construction crews from India and Pakistan working in Saudi Arabia? Why are they going unpaid for months? Could problems for Indian and Pakistani expats get worse as oil prices stay low for extended period? Will remittances from GCC nations to India and Pakistan suffer? Will poverty increase in South Asia?

Why is Trump popular with Hindu Nationalists in India? Why are many right-wing Hindus praying for Trump's victory against Hillary in US elections? Will a Trump presidency be good for India? Is there anything in common between the Hindu Right's anti-Muslim bigotry and Trump's Islamophobia? Is Donald Trump spousing xenophobic and racist views similar to those of German Nazi leader Adolf Hitler and Indian RSS Guru Madhav Sadashiv Golwalkar?

Has Donald Trump been hurt by his war of words with the GoldStar family of Ghazala and Khizr Khan, the parents of the slain war hero US Army Captain Humayun Khan? Has this episode confirmed in the minds of many GOPers that Trump is temperamentally unfit to be in the Oval Office? Has it sparked a war within GOP with Republican leaders Paul Ryan and John McCain taking on the GOP top of the ticket? How will the repetition of such incidents affect the Trump campaign? Will the entire GOP ticket face historic defeat?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Misbah Azam discusses these questions with panelists Ali H. Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://youtu.be/6X2I6tBubH0



https://vimeo.com/177756879

IndoPak Saudi Workers Troubles; Trump's Popularity in India; GOP Infighting from Ikolachi on Vimeo.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Impact of Saudi Oil Revenue Slump

Hindu Nationalists Admire Hitler & Nazis

The Trump Phenomenon

Democratic National Convention

Talk4Pak Think Tank

VPOS Youtube Channel

VPOS Vimeo Channel



Monday, August 1, 2016

Pakistan's Rising Economy; US Democratic Party Convention; Modi's Crackdown on AAP

How's Pakistan's economy doing? What do broad economic indicators of rising consumption of energy, autos, cement and steel show? Do these indicators confirm government's GDP growth figures? How are the investors responding to these indicators? What is the impact of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects on the economic activity in the country?

How do the two major party conventions in 2016 compare? Did one party do a better job of appealing to the broad electorate better than the other? Who's more ready to be the next US president? Hillary or Trump? Who's better for ethnic and religious minorities, particularly Pakistani-Americans and Muslim-Americans? How was the DNC speech by Pakistani-American Khizr Khan, the father of slain war hero US Army Captain Humayun Khan, received by the DNC delegates and the broader US public? Was it effective in fighting Trump's overt Islamophobia?

Why is the Modi government arresting nearly a dozen Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) MLAs? Why did the Indian government choose to do it now? Is AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal justified in fearing for his life? Are these AAP leaders' arrests and various forms of intimidation timed to hamstring AAP's chances in upcoming state elections in Goa, Gujarat and Punjab?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Misbah Azam discusses these questions with panelists Ali H. Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)


https://youtu.be/RHB1GdVwusk





https://vimeo.com/177084238



Pakistan's Rising Economy; US Democratic Party Convention; Modi's Crackdown on AAP from Ikolachi on Vimeo.


Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan's Rising Economy

Trump Phenomenon

Trump's Muslim Ban

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Is Modi's Honeymoon Over?

Talk4Pak Think Tank

VPOS Youtube Channel

VPOS Vimeo Channel