Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Tuesday, February 25, 2025

Silicon Valley Helping Build Pakistan's Human Capital

Last week I attended a Silicon Valley fundraiser by iCodeGuru, a Pakistani-American group focusing on arranging training and guiding young men and women from underprivileged backgrounds to get full scholarships for advanced STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) degrees at universities in America. The well-attended event held at Chandni restaurant raised over $180,000. It featured iCodeGruru alumni who shared their success stories.

iCodeGuru Alumna Afsheen Ghuman Speaking at Silicon Valley Fundraiser.

The story of Afsheen Ghuman from Gujranwala shows how a poor girl from a small town can succeed in defying the odds with a little help from iCodeGuru team headed by Dr. Zafar Shahid. She was able to take advantage of the online platform remotely from her home. She is now studying at an American university with a fully funded scholarship. iCodeGuru uses its online platform to offer advice, training and financial assistance to get advanced technical education, scholarships and initial funding for successful candidates to come to the United States. Currently, there are 22,000 students signed up for help via the iCodeGuru platform.

There are several similar efforts underway by Silicon Valley Pakistani-Americans to help build Pakistan's human capital in technology. Ashar Aziz Foundation, created and funded by Pakistani-American technology entrepreneur Ashar Aziz, has sponsored Advanced AI Bootcamps at the National University of Science and Technology (NUST) in Islamabad. The bootcamp series not only provides theoretical knowledge but also emphasizes practical, project-based learning, according to NUST.

The first AI bootcamp, which focused on Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), was successfully completed at NUST in November 2023. The second bootcamp provided participants with in-depth knowledge and hands-on experience in the development and application of LLMs (Large Language Models). Ghulam Ishaq Khan Institute of Engineering Sciences & Technology (GIKI) also joined this initiative in 2024, conducting its own DNN-focused bootcamp. Participants have the opportunity to work with advanced technologies, including access to a 10xH100 NVIDIA GPU AI supercomputer, ensuring they are well-prepared to tackle real-world challenges in AI. As part of its ongoing efforts, NUST plans to partner with additional universities across Pakistan to further scale this initiative, ensuring that more students have access to high-quality AI training, according to NUST.

Smaller towns in Pakistan are also setting up AI programs with the help of Pakistani-Americans. For example, Stanford educated AI expert Shoaib Lari and Silicon Valley based technology executive Jalil Shaikh have helped Islamia University Bahawalpur start an AI program. Jalil Shaikh is now working with US-based companies to place the first group of graduates from this program.

STEM education underlies Artificial Intelligence. Pakistan stands 4th in the world with 642,562 students enrolled in STEM courses– behind Nigeria (675,371), the US (4,639,771) and India (6,000,967), according to Coursera's Global Skills Report 2023. My own estimate based on HEC data is that STEM enrollment in Pakistan exceeds one million.

Wednesday, February 19, 2025

US-India Ties: Strategic or Transactional?

During the last Trump Administration in 2019, India's friends in Washington argued for a US policy of "strategic altruism" with India. The new Trump administration seems to be rejecting such talk. Prior to his recent meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House, President Donald Trump described India as the "worst abuser of tariffs" and announced "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian imports to the United States. At the same time, Mr. Trump cracked down on both legal and illegal immigration from India. His administration is deporting thousands of illegal Indian immigrants in handcuffs and shackles on US military aircraft. Meanwhile, stringent new regulations on temporary work visas could significantly delay visa processing times and reduce the number of Indian workers employed in the United States on H1B visas.

Tariffs Comparison. Source: BBC

In a 2019 piece titled "The India Dividend: New Delhi Remains Washington’s Best Hope in Asia" published in Foreign Affairs journal, authors Robert Blackwill and Ashley Tellis argued that the Trump Administration should continue the US policy of "strategic altruism" with India that began with US-India nuclear agreement. They asked President Trump to ignore the fact that the US companies and economy have only marginally benefited, if at all, from this policy. They see India as a "superpower in waiting" and urge Washington to focus on the goal of having India as an ally to check China's rise. They see Chinese support for India's arch-rival Pakistan and China’s growing weight in South Asia and beyond as a threat to India.

India Tops Source Countries For H1B Visa Holders. Source: USCIS

Trump's trade and immigration policies are going to hurt India at a time when its economic growth is declining and job growth is stagnant. The latest Indian annual budget has offered middle class tax relief to spur growth. But economists warn it may not be enough for the vast majority of Indians, whose income still falls below taxable limits and who may still be reeling from the impact of the COVID pandemic, which devastated their earnings, according to a report in Aljazeera. “There is a vast base [of people] where recovery has not come back after the pandemic,” says Kaushik Basu, professor of economics at Cornell University. “We see this in data that the agricultural labour base has increased. And agriculture may well be just a parking spot.”

Illegal immigration from India to the US has dramatically increased on Prime Minister Modi's watch. A Pew Research Center report said that as of 2022, India ranked third, after Mexico and El Salvador, on the list of countries with the largest number of undocumented immigrants — 725,000 — living in the U.S.

India has a serious unemployment problem, particularly for the young people entering the job market by the millions each year. This problem is concealed by headline economic growth figures highlighted by the Modi government. At the same time, India is losing its best and brightest in a massive brain drain.

President Trump has clearly not taken the advice of India's friends in Washington. He is in no mood for "strategic altruism". Instead, the Trump Administration has signaled that it will treat ties with India as just another transactional relationship.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Guess Why Pakistani Analyst Uzair Younus is Making Headlines in India!

Ambassador Kishore Mahbubani: America Does Not Respect India

World Happiness Report: India Among Saddest Nations of the World

Indian-American Ashley Tellis Advocates For US Strategic Altruism with India

WB Poverty Update: India Biggest Contributor to Increase in Poverty

India in Crisis: Unemployment, Hunger Persist After Waves of Covid

Modi's Blunders and Delusions

India's Israel Envy: What If Modi Attacks Pakistan?

Project Azm: Pakistan to Develop 5th Generation Fighter Jet

Pakistan Navy Modernization

Pakistan's Sea-Based Second Strike Capability

Are Some Pakistanis Feeding Modi's Delusions of Grandeur?

Is the West Unwittingly Helping Modi Realize His Akhand Bharat Hindutva Dream?

Has Pakistan Lost All Wars?

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Thursday, February 13, 2025

Pakistan Navy Plans Modernization, Indigenization

Admiral Naveed Ashraf, Pakistan Navy Chief, spoke of his vision for "indigenization and modernization" of his branch of the Pakistani military on the eve of multinational AMAN 2025 naval exercises. Biennial AMAN Exercise and Dialogue this year attracted 60 nations from Australia to Zimbabwe (A to Z). China, the United States, Turkey and Japan were among the countries which participated in it.

Some of the AMAN 2025 Participants in Karachi, Pakistan

Pakistan has a 1,000 kilometers long coastline on the Arabian Sea with maritime sovereignty over 200 nautical miles deep Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and 150 nautical miles of Continental Shelf. This adds 290,000 square kilometers of sea or about 36% of the country's land area open for tapping vast resources in it. Pakistan's "Blue Economy" in this extended economic zone includes seafood and energy resources as well as international trade connectivity with the rest of the world. It offers opportunities for water sports, recreation and tourism in the coastal areas of Pakistan.

Over the next 10 years, Pakistan has plans to build a modern well-equipped naval force with 50 ships ranging from frigates and submarines to corvettes and offshore patrol vessels. Recently, Pakistan Navy has inducted Type 054 A/P frigates from China, Offshore Patrol Vessels Batch-I and Batch-II from Romania and MILGEM-class corvette from Türkiye. "These platforms with the latest weapons and sensors will be a significant addition to the Pakistan Navy’s existing capabilities to effectively deal with today’s complex multi-threat environment", Ashraf told John Hill of "Naval Technology" publication. "The Jinnah-class frigate marks a significant advancement for my Navy as our first indigenously designed and produced large warship", he added.

As part of its modernization and indigenization effort, Pakistan is building its domestic defense industry to reduce dependence on imports. The Pakistani Navy Chief explained: "Currently, our industrial base is developing and gearing up for this initiative and we anticipate that our technological capabilities will grow throughout the program. This growth will be facilitated through partnerships with experienced defense partners from friendly countries". China and Turkey are Pakistan's closest partners in this effort. Pakistan’s defense acquisition budget is forecast to register a compound annual growth rate of 11.4% over the next four years: it is projected to reach $3.1 billion in 2029 from $2 billion in 2025, according to GlobalData intelligence.

In terms of military diplomacy, Pakistan is working with a much larger group of nations represented at the AMAN Exercises and Dialogue 2025. The list includes Australia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Brazil, Brunei, Burundi, Cambodia, Canada, China, Comoros, Czech, Djibouti, Egypt, Fiji, France, Germany, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Kuwait, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Morocco, Myanmar, Netherland, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Philippines, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Seychelles, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sri Lanka, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tunisia, Türkiye, UAE, Uganda, UK, USA and Zimbabwe.

Over two dozen ships from twelve navies participated in an international fleet review off the coast of Pakistan – the grand finale to multinational naval exercise AMAN 2025 that saw a record 60 nations participate, according to media reports.

Here's an Aljazeera video of AMAN 2025:

https://youtu.be/ghuOerEfNFs?si=o3N_a4IUsQ52ez5R

Thursday, February 6, 2025

US Deports Indian Illegal Immigrants in Handcuffs and Chains Aboard Military Aircraft

A US Air Force transport plane landed in India today with 104 illegal Indian immigrants in handcuffs and shackles, according to media reports. Speaking with reporters, a deportee said: “For 40 hours, we were handcuffed, our feet tied with chains and were not allowed to move an inch from our seats. After repeated requests, we were allowed to drag ourselves to the washroom. The crew would open the door of the lavatory and shove us in.”

Illegal Indian Immigrants Deported in Handcuffs and Chains. Source: News18

The inhumane treatment meted out to citizens of India, a US ally, has sparked a lot of anger against Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government. The critics are citing the example of Colombia, a small South American nation, whose president protested similar treatment of its citizens by the Trump administration. Colombian President Gustavo Petro turned back the US military planes carrying deportees and then sent his own aircraft to transport them back home in Colombia.

"Leave India! It's High Time!!" screams out a recent Reddit post that has gone viral! The poster who claims to be an Indian entrepreneur warns of impending "terrible economic collapse" with a "massive depreciation of the Indian rupee".

The now-deleted post, written by a user named ‘u/anonymous_batm_an,’ urges high-earning professionals, especially innovators, to leave India for countries with better opportunities and governance, as reported by the Times of India. It recommends the UAE or Thailand as alternative destinations . The sentiments expressed in the post are already resonating with a large number of Indians. The non-resident Indians now constitute the world's largest overseas diaspora. Every year, 2.5 million Indians leave their country of birth, making India the nation with the highest annual number of emigrants in the world.

New Company Registrations in Dubai. Source: Khaleej Times

Indian investors continued to top the list of new non-Emirati companies joining the Dubai Chamber of Commerce during the first nine months of 2024. A total of 12,142 new Indian companies joined the chamber during the period, data showed on Monday, according to the Khaleej Times. Pakistan ranked second on the list with 6,061 new companies joining between Q1-Q3 2024, while Egypt followed with 3,611 new companies registering as members of the chamber. The number of new Syrian companies joining the chamber during the first nine months of the year reached 2,062, placing the country fourth among the top nationalities of new member companies.

India is losing its best and brightest to the West, particularly to the United States, at an increasingly rapid pace. A 2023 study of the 1,000 top scorers in the 2010 entrance exams to the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) — a network of prestigious institutions of higher learning based in 23 Indian cities — revealed the scale of the problem. Around 36% migrated abroad, and of the top 100 scorers, 62% left the country, according to a report in the science journal Nature. Nearly two-thirds of those leaving India are highly educated, having received academic or vocational training. This is the highest for any country, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Example of The Great Indian Brain Drain. Source: Boston Political Review

Brain drain is defined as the loss of precious human capital of a nation. It is a “consequence of an education system designed for ‘selecting’ the best and brightest in an economy that is still too controlled and cannot create opportunities for its best and brightest”, according to Indian economist Shruti Rajagopalan. High-profile examples of India's human capital loss include Satya Nadella (Microsoft), Sundar Pichai (Google), Shantanu Narayen (Adobe), Arvind Krishna (IBM) and Ajay Banga (World Bank).

Foreign-Born STEM Workers in America. Source: American Immigration Council

Growing number of Indian students are going abroad for higher education each year and 90% of them never return home after completing their studies. In 2022, the number of Indian students leaving the country for higher education reached a six-year high of 770,000. And a 2021 report estimated that around two million Indian students would be studying abroad by 2024.

Many developing countries are experiencing brain drain. But India is losing its best brightest at a much faster rate than others. Some call it "The Great Indian Brain Drain". This is the reason why Indians in the United States are the best educated and the highest earning group. In a recently published book titled "The Other One Percent", authors Sanjoy Chakravorty, Devesh Kapur and Nirvikar Singh explain this phenomenon.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Guess Why Pakistani Analyst Uzair Younus is Making Headlines in India!

Ambassador Kishore Mahbubani: America Does Not Respect India

World Happiness Report: India Among Saddest Nations of the World

Balakot and Kashmir: Fact Checkers Expose Indian Lies

WB Poverty Update: India Biggest Contributor to Increase in Poverty

India in Crisis: Unemployment, Hunger Persist After Waves of Covid

Modi's Blunders and Delusions

India's Israel Envy: What If Modi Attacks Pakistan?

Project Azm: Pakistan to Develop 5th Generation Fighter Jet

Pakistan Navy Modernization

Pakistan's Sea-Based Second Strike Capability

Are Some Pakistanis Feeding Modi's Delusions of Grandeur?

Is the West Unwittingly Helping Modi Realize His Akhand Bharat Hindutva Dream?

Has Pakistan Lost All Wars?

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Sunday, February 2, 2025

Researchers of Chinese Origin Dominate the World's Top AI Talent

Recent launch of DeepSeek AI model has brought to light the large and growing AI talent in China. The researchers working for the Chinese startup have shown that human creativity and problem-solving skills can overcome limitations such as access to high-performance hardware. It confirms that the most important resource needed for breakthroughs in AI is the human resource.

The people of Chinese PRC origin account for 47% of the top 20% AI talent in the world based on undergraduate degree, according to a survey. Americans make up 18%, Europeans 12% and Indians 5% of the global AI researchers. In terms of the countries they serve, 57% of them work in the United States, 12% in China, 8% in the UK, 4% each in France and Germany and 3% in Canada as of 2022. While the US still has the lion's share of the top talent, its share has declined from 65% in 2019 to 57% in 2022. Marco Polo talent tracker lists Pakistan among a dozen countries for top AI talent in Asia.

Top Global AI Talent. Marco Polo AI Talent Tracker

More than half (15 out 25) of the institutions (companies and universities) where the top AI researchers work are located in the United States, while 6 are in China. The remaining four are in the UK, Switzerland, Singapore and Canada, according to Marco Polo Global AI Talent Tracker.

Top AI Talent in Asia Pacific. Source: Marco Polo

The Chinese from PRC dominate the Asia Pacific region with 81.9% of the top AI talent. Indians account for 8.2%, South Korea 4% and "others" 5.8%. "Others” include Taiwan, Australia, Vietnam, Singapore, Japan, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Malaysia, Pakistan, Mongolia, and Sri Lanka.

The fact that a number of large language models, including Chinese DeepSeek and Meta's Llama 3, are open source will help develop more global AI talent and spur greater innovation around the world. In the end, it is much more likely that the open source offerings will see greater success than the closed source models like OpenAI's.