Tuesday, February 28, 2023

ABP India Summit 2023: Javed Akhtar Saw "No Visible Poverty" in Lahore, Pakistan

Famous Indian writer and poet Javed Akhtar told his audience at a conference in Mumbai that he saw "no visible poverty" in Lahore during his multiple visits to Pakistan over the last three decades. Responding to Indian novelist Chetan Bhagat's query about Pakistan's economic crisis at ABP's "Ideas of India Summit 2023" in Mumbai, Akhtar said: "Unlike what you see in Delhi and Mumbai, I did not see any visible poverty in Lahore".  This was Akhtar's first interview upon his return to India after attending "Faiz Festival" in Lahore, Pakistan. 

Javed Akhtar at ABP Ideas Summit in Mumbai

Chetan Bhagat began by talking about high inflation, low forex reserves and major economic crisis in Pakistan and followed it up by asking Javed Akhtar about its effects he saw on the people in Pakistan. In response, Akhtar said, "Bilkul Nahin (Not at all). In India you see poverty right in front of you, next door to a billionaire. Maybe it is kept back of the beyond. Only some people are allowed to enter certain areas. But you don't see it (poverty) on the streets. In India, it is right in front of you...amiri bhi or gharibi bhi (wealth and poverty). Sare kam apke samne hain (It's all in front of you). Wahan yeh dekhai nahin deta (you don't see it in Pakistan)". 

Alhamra Arts Center, Lahore, Pakistan

Disappointed by the response, Bhagat suggested that the Indian visitor could have been guided by his hosts through certain routes where he couldn't see any poverty. Javed Akhtar then said "it's not possible to hide poverty. I would have seen at least a "jhalak" (glimpse) of it as I always do in Delhi and Mumbai....I have been to Pakistan many times but I have not seen it". 

What Javed Akhtar saw and reported recently is obviously anecdotal evidence. But it is also supported by hard data. Over 75% of the world's poor deprived of basic living standards (nutrition, cooking fuel, sanitation and housing) live in India compared to 4.6% in Bangladesh and 4.1% in Pakistan, according to a recently released OPHI/UNDP report on multidimensional poverty.  Here's what the report says: "More than 45.5 million poor people are deprived in only these four indicators (nutrition, cooking fuel, sanitation and housing). Of those people, 34.4 million live in India, 2.1 million in Bangladesh and 1.9 million in Pakistan—making this a predominantly South Asian profile". 

Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2022. Source: OPHI/UNDP

Income Poverty in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Source: Our World in Data


The UNDP poverty report shows that the income poverty (people living on $1.90 or less per day) in Pakistan is 3.6% while it is 22.5% in India and 14.3% in Bangladesh. In terms of the population vulnerable to multidimensional poverty, Pakistan (12.9%) does better than Bangladesh (18.2%) and India (18.7%)  However, Pakistan fares worse than India and Bangladesh in multiple dimensions of poverty. The headline multidimensional poverty (MPI) figure for Pakistan (0.198) is worse than for Bangladesh (0.104) and India (0.069). This is primarily due to the education and health deficits in Pakistan. Adults with fewer than 6 years of schooling are considered multidimensionally poor by OPHI/UNDP.  Income poverty is not included in the MPI calculations. The data used by OHP/UNDP for MPI calculation is from years 2017/18 for Pakistan and from years 2019/2021 for India. 

Multidimensional Poverty in South Asia. Source: UNDP

The Indian government's reported multidimensional poverty rate of 25.01% is much higher than the OPHI/UNDP estimate of 16.4%. NITI Ayog report released in November 2021 says: "India’s national MPI identifies 25.01 percent of the population as multidimensionally poor".

Multidimensional Poverty in India. Source: NITI Ayog via IIP

Earlier last year,  Global Hunger Index 2022 reported that  India ranks 107th for hunger among 121 nations. The nation fares worse than all of its South Asian neighbors except for war-torn Afghanistan ranked 109, according to the the report. Sri Lanka ranks 64, Nepal 81, Bangladesh 84 and Pakistan 99. India and Pakistan have levels of hunger that are considered serious. Both have slipped on the hunger charts from 2021 when India was ranked 101 and Pakistan 92. Seventeen countries, including Bosnia, China, Kuwait, Turkey and UAE, are collectively ranked between 1 and 17 for having a score of less than five.

Here's a video of Javed Akhtar's interview with Chetan Bhagat at ABP's "Ideas of India Summit 2023".  Please watch from 4:19 to 6:00 minutes. 

https://www.youtube.com/live/pZ5e81ysKGQ?feature=share


 


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Wednesday, February 22, 2023

Pakistan: Startups Incubated at Karachi's NED University Got the Highest Funding in 2022

Karachi-based start-ups raised $236.7 million in 2022, accounting for two-thirds of Pakistan's total startup funding and almost double the previous year, according to Data Darbar.  Karachi, Pakistan's largest city, is followed by Lahore with $69.2 million and Islamabad with $41.6 million. Nationally, the total funds raised by startups have been declining after hitting the peak of $173 million in Q1/2022. 

City-wise Startup Funding of Pakistani Startups. Source: Data Darbar via FDI Intelligence


National Incubation Center, located at Karachi's NED University of Engineering and Technology (NEDUET), has incubated more than 250 start-ups so far.  These include ride-hailing app Bykea and London-based proptech platform Gridizen. Kamran Mahmood, the CEO of Gridizen, who recently returned to Pakistan to join NIC Karachi, says he has found it even easier to meet decision makers at large companies in Pakistan than the UK, according to a report in FDI Intelligence. “Karachi really offers the best chance for Pakistan to catch up with other start-up ecosystems,” says Rabeel Warraich, the founder and CEO of Sarmayacar, a Pakistani early stage VC fund set up in 2018. 

Since the start of 2018, the total VC funding in Pakistan soared more than 20-fold to reach an all-time high of $333m in 2022, according to Magnitt, an emerging market data platform. Most of the funding has gone to e-commerce and fintech start-ups, including Karachi-based online marketplace Bazaar Technologies, salary advance app Abhi and Lahore-based e-commerce platform Jugnu.

NIC Karachi is funded by Ignite, the country's national technology fund, and operated by LMKT, a private tech company which runs two other NICs in the cities of Hyderabad and Peshawar.  “The level of funding and support has improved a lot in recent years,” Sana Shah, the program manager at the National Incubation Center (NIC) in Pakistan's most populous city Karachi,  told FDI Intelligence. It is one of eight public-private tech innovation hubs established across Pakistan since 2016.  
Startup Funding Trend in Pakistan. Source: Data Darbar via FDI Intelligence


Across Pakistan, the total funds raised by startups have been declining since hitting the peak of $173 million in Q1/2022.  Start-ups raised just over $15m in Q4/22, the lowest figure since the first quarter of 2020 and 79% lower than the same period a year earlier, according to Data Darbar, which tracks the Pakistani start-up scene. This downward trend is at least partly due to Pakistan's current economic crisis. It also reflects a global decline in VC investments in startups. 

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Monday, February 20, 2023

India Emerges the Biggest Winner of the Ukraine War and Growing US-China Tensions

"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal" Henry Kissinger

India is emerging as the biggest beneficiary of the Ukraine War and the US efforts to check China's rise. Indian businesses are busting US sanctions to take advantage of the vacuum left in Russia by the exit of western businesses since the start of the Ukraine War.  At the same time, the US is rewarding India by promoting it as an alternative to China in the global supply chain.  Meanwhile, Beijing is warning New Delhi that India "will be the biggest victim" of America's "proxy war" against China. 

L to R: Modi, Putin, Xi and Biden

Soaring Russia-India Trade: 

Since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, India has ramped up its imports of Russian oil by a whopping 33 times, according to the Christian Science Monitor.  Dr. Nivedita Kapoor, an Indian expert at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, told the Monitor: “Right now the focus is on pharmaceuticals, electronics, machinery, chemical products, medical instruments, and agricultural products,” says Dr. Kapoor. “We have already been exporting these goods to Russia, and there is potential for major increases. ... It may be harder to expand the list due to the threat of secondary sanctions. In this environment, the Indian private sector looks at Russia as a risky market. But the immediate potential is very big.”   

“The best solution would be for Russia to make an early end to this war,” Kapoor said. “We can envisage a situation where Western companies have already exited the Russian market, and burned their bridges, while the Indian private sector no longer regards business with Russia as a risky proposition, carrying the threat of secondary sanctions. All that would go away for us, but we need to see an end to this war”, she added. 

India in Global Supply Chain: 

With growing Washington-Beijing tensions,  the United States is trying to decouple its economy from China's. The Wall Street Journal has reported that the Biden administration is turning to India for help as the U.S. works to shift critical technology supply chains away from China and other countries that it says use that technology to destabilize global security.

The US Commerce Department is actively promoting India Inc to become an alternative to China in the West's global supply chain.  US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo recently told Jim Cramer on CNBC’s “Mad Money” that she will visit India in March with a handful of U.S. CEOs to discuss an alliance between the two nations on manufacturing semiconductor chips. “It’s a large population. (A) lot of workers, skilled workers, English speakers, a democratic country, rule of law,” she said.

China-India Border Conflict: 

India's unsettled land border with China will most likely continue to be a source of growing tension that could easily escalate into a broader, more intense war, as New Delhi is seen by Beijing as aligning itself with Washington. 

In a recent Op Ed in Global Times, considered a mouthpiece of the Beijing government, Professor Guo Bingyun  has warned New Delhi that India "will be the biggest victim" of the US proxy war against China. Below is a quote from it: 

"Inducing some countries to become US' proxies has been Washington's tactic to maintain its world hegemony since the end of WWII. It does not care about the gains and losses of these proxies. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a proxy war instigated by the US. The US ignores Ukraine's ultimate fate, but by doing so, the US can realize the expansion of NATO, further control the EU, erode the strategic advantages of Western European countries in climate politics and safeguard the interests of US energy groups. It is killing four birds with one stone......If another armed conflict between China and India over the border issue breaks out, the US and its allies will be the biggest beneficiaries, while India will be the biggest victim. Since the Cold War, proxies have always been the biggest victims in the end". 

Related Links:

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Wednesday, February 15, 2023

NAPA Academy: Enduring Legacy of Zia Mohyeddin and Pervez Musharraf

Veteran Pakistani performing artist Zia Mohyeddin (1931-2023) passed away this week. May his soul rest in peace. Amen. Among the most enduring legacies he has left behind is the National Academy of Performing Arts (NAPA) he helped establish in Karachi in 2005 with the support and funding provided by former President Pervez Musharraf (1943-2023). Zia Mohyeddin not only inspired generations of young Pakistanis aspiring to become performing artists, he also helped build NAPA as an institution where they are formally trained in film, television, dance, theater, music and other performing arts.  

Zia Mohyeddin (1931-2023)

Popular Pakistani actor Fawad Khan, a NAPA graduate who was inspired by Mohyeddin, told Al Jazeera the thespian’s death felt like he had lost his own father. “I don’t have enough words to express my words and sorrow at his passing. He helped me at every stage. His life was all about theatre, the all-encompassing passion he had for it. It kept him alive,” Khan said.


National Academy of Performing Arts, Karachi, Pakistan

Zia Mohyeddin was President Emeritus of NAPA at the time of his death. In 2005, he was handpicked by late President Pervez Musharraf to establish and lead a national institution for arts and music. He was trained at the Royal Academy of Dramatic Art in London. He performed in several Broadway and West End theater productions. He made his West End debut in A Passage to India as Dr. Aziz. His acting credits include roles in Lawrence of Arabia (1962), Behold the Pale Horse (1964), Bombay Talkie (1970) and The Jewel in the Crown (1984).  

In 2015, President Pervez Musharraf attended NAPA's 10th anniversary celebration of its founding. Zia Mohyeddin thanked Musharraf for founding NAPA and for selecting him to run it, according to a report in Business Recorder newspaper. "To be a part of NAPA's 10th founding anniversary is a very gratifying experience," he said. "I never imagined myself being around long enough to be a part of the celebrations, and see the seed that we planted grow into a healthy plant and about to become a tree."

Urdu monologues delivered by Zia Mohyeddin became the main draw at popular events in Pakistan and around the world.  Rekhta.org, a popular web library of Urdu poetry, has hailed them for "taking the art of recitation to unprecedented heights".  His performance at the 2011 NED Alumni Association Convention in New Jersey was the the biggest highlight of the event. My friend and fellow NED alumnus Ali Hasan Cemendtaur reported it in the Pakistan Link as follows: 

"It doesn't happen often that a thespian keeps redefining himself to remain in demand as he progresses through years.  Actors should learn from Zia Mohyeddin how to be successful at such a transformation.  Turning 80 in a couple of years, this theater and film actor of yesteryear now uses his deep theatrical voice to recite fine Urdu literature and enthrall crowds.  At the NED Convention 2011, Zia Mohyeddin did something new: besides reading masterpieces of known writers, Mohyeddin read a piece he himself authored". 

Related Links:

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Obituary of Pervez Musharraf (1943-2023)

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Friday, February 10, 2023

Over A Million Pakistani University Students Enrolled in STEM Fields

Over a million students, about a third of total 3 million students (1.4 million women, 1.6 million men) enrolled in Pakistani universities and degree colleges, are currently studying science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM Education), according to data released by the country's Higher Education Commission (HEC). Of these students, 415,008 are studying natural sciences and mathematics, 276,659 are in information and communication technologies (ICT), 178,260 are in health sciences and 166,457 are in engineering. Pakistan produced 157,102 STEM graduates last year, putting it among the world's top dozen or so countries. About 43,000 of these graduates are in information technology (IT).  

Student Enrollment By Field of Study at Pakistani Higher Education Institutions. Source: HEC


Nearly half a million Pakistani women are currently enrolled in science, technology, engineering and mathematics courses at universities, accounting for nearly 46% of all STEM students in higher education institutions in the country. 

Clockwise From Top Left: Nergis Mavalvala, Maria Abrar, Maheen Adamson, Tasneem Zehra Husain, Sundas Khalid, Asifa Akhtar

Acceptance rate in Pakistani universities and degree colleges was just 13.5% last year. Only 541,043 students were accepted from 4,085,185 students who applied. The country produced 471,306 university graduates in 2020-21. Of these, 157,102 were in STEM fields, including 43,000 graduates in information technology (IT).  


Pakistan Higher Education Admission and Graduation Statistics. Source: HEC



In absolute terms, Pakistan probably ranks among the top dozen or so nations producing university graduates in STEM and IT fields. However, the country lags significantly behind its lower middle income peers in terms of percentage of students enrolled in universities. Only 12% of young people in the 18-25 age group are currently enrolled in higher education institutions. This is about half of the 25% average for South Asia. The data from the World Bank shows that the higher education enrollment rate was extremely low in Pakistan until 2000 when late President Musharraf decided to significantly boost investment in building universities and hire faculty to rapidly increase access to higher education in the country. 


Tertiary Education Enrollment Rates. Source: World Bank


As Pakistan struggles with multiple serious crises,  these young men and women now studying in the nation's universities and colleges offer hope for its bright future. In fact, the vast majority of Pakistanis feel that they have better lives than their parents did, and they think their children will have even better lives than theirs, according to a Gallup International Poll of 64 countries conducted from August to October last year. The poll asked two questions: 1) Do you feel your life is better, worse or roughly similar to that  of your parents? and 2) Do you think your children will have a better, worse or roughly the same life as you? The answers to these questions reveal that Pakistanis are among the top 5 most positive nations among 64 countries polled by Gallup International. Anecdotal evidence in terms of packed shopping malls and restaurants in Pakistan's major cities confirms it. Such positivity augurs well for Pakistan's prospects of successfully dealing with the current crises. It will drive the nation's recovery. 


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Tuesday, February 7, 2023

Remembering Pervez Musharraf (1943-2023): A True Patriot Who Made Pakistan Stronger

President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan passed away this week. May his soul rest in peace. Amen. He was a true patriot who honestly served his country to the best of his ability. He strengthened his country's economy, society and military. Per capita incomes of Pakistanis doubled on his watch, lifting the country from a low-income to a middle-income country. His government liberalized media and telecommunications, leading to rapid growth in both industries.  President Musharraf dramatically accelerated his people's human development by investing heavily in education and healthcare. After what has transpired in recent years, most Pakistanis will remember his time in office as a golden age for the country. 

President Pervez Musharraf 1943-2023


Higher education reform backed by huge increases in spending led to a large increase in college and university enrollment and graduation rates. He halved Pakistan's debt burden and doubled exports during his 8 years in office. Pakistan built up credible nuclear deterrence by ensuring development of a variety of nuclear-capable missiles of various ranges. Pakistan developed the JF-17, its first indigenous fighter jet aircraft with China, and the Pakistan Air Force started deploying it during the Musharraf years.  He negotiated the upgrade of PAF F-16s and acquisition of dozens of new F-16s. 

Pakistan Debt and Fiscal Deficit Trend 2000-2020

In 1999, President Pervez Musharraf inherited a massive debt of 100% of GDP run up by the Pakistan Peoples Party and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) governments in the 1990s. Musharraf's policies not only revived the bankrupt economy but also brought down debt to 52% of GDP by 2007. 

Pakistan Debt to GDP 1995-2021. Source: IMF


PPP Government's 2008 Letter to IMF:

In a letter to the International Monetary Fund in 2008, the PPP government hailed Musharraf's economic record without mentioning his name in the following words:

"Pakistan's economy witnessed a major economic transformation in the last decade (2000-2008). The country's real GDP increased from $60 billion to $170 billion, with per capita income rising from under $500 to over $1000 during 2000-07.....the volume of international trade increased from $20 billion to nearly $60 billion. The improved macroeconomic performance enabled Pakistan to re-enter the international capital markets in the mid-2000s. Large capital inflows financed the current account deficit and contributed to an increase in gross official reserves to $14.3 billion at end-June 2007. Buoyant output growth, low inflation, and the government's social policies contributed to a reduction in poverty and improvement in many social indicators". (see MEFP, November 20, 2008, Para 1).

Pakistan Manufacturing Value Added 2000-2021. Source: World Bank


Savings and Investments:

Domestic savings rate reached 18% of the GDP and foreign direct investment (FDI) hit a record level of $5.4 billion in 2007-8. This combination of domestic and foreign investments nearly tripled the size of the economy from $60 billion in 1999 to $170 billion in 2007, according to IMF. Exports nearly tripled from about $7 billion in 1999-2000 to $22 billion in 2007-2008, adding millions of more jobs. Pakistan was lifted from a poor, low-income country with per capita income of just $500 in 1999 to a middle-income country with per capita income exceeding $1000 in 2007.

FDI in the Musharraf years came in many sectors, ranging from telecommunications to manufacturing.
Several mobile phone and Internet service operators built networks worth billions of dollars. Without this telecom infrastructure, there would be no tech industry, no freelancers and no fast-growing tech exports today.

New cement plants met growing demand that more than doubled cement consumption, FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) sector took off to meet demand from growing middle class and production of cars and motorcycles jumped. 


Human Capital Development: 

In addition to the economic revival, Musharraf focused on the social sector as well. Pakistan's Human Development Index (HDI) score grew an average rate of 2.7% per year under President Musharraf from 2000 to 2007, and then its pace slowed to 0.7% per year in 2008 to 2012 under elected politicians, according to the 2013 Human Development Report titled “The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World”.



Primary Enrollment Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan

Youth Literacy Rate Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan


Pakistan University Enrollment Jumped in Musharraf Years. Source: World Bank


Overall, Pakistan's human development score rose by 18.9% during the Musharraf years and increased just 3.4% under elected leadership since 2008. The news on the human development front got even worse in the last three years, with HDI growth slowing down as low as 0.59% — a paltry average annual increase of under 0.20 per cent. Going further back to the  decade of 1990s when the civilian leadership of the country alternated between PML (N) and PPP,  the increase in Pakistan's HDI was 9.3% from 1990 to 2000, less than half of the HDI gain of 18.9% on Musharraf's watch from 2000 to 2007.

R&D Spending Jumped 7-fold as % of GDP 1999-2007 Source: World Bank

Acceleration of HDI growth during the Musharraf years was not an accident.  Not only did Musharraf's policies accelerate economic growth, helped create 13 million new jobs, cut poverty in half and halved the country's total debt burden in the period from 2000 to 2007, his government also ensured significant investment and focus on education and health care. The annual budget for higher education increased from only Rs 500 million in 2000 to Rs 28 billion in 2008, to lay the foundations of the development of a strong knowledge economy, according to former education minister Dr. Ata ur Rehman. Student enrollment in universities increased from 270,000 to 900,000 and the number of universities and degree awarding institutions increased from 57 in 2000 to 137 by 2008. Government R&D spending jumped from 0.1% of GDP in 1999 to 0.7% of GDP in 2007. In 2011, a Pakistani government commission on education found that public funding for education has been cut from 2.5% of GDP in 2007 to just 1.5% - less than the annual subsidy given to the various PSUs including Pakistan Steel and PIA, both of which  continue to sustain huge losses due to patronage-based hiring.

Pakistan's High-Tech Exports Tripled as % of Manufactured Exports. Source: World Bank

Pakistan textile exports more than doubled from $5.2 billion to more than $11 billion during the Musharraf years. Exports soared 19.43% in 2001, 20% in 2004, 24.5% in 2005 and 11.23% in 2006, all on President Musharraf's watch, according to "The Rise and Fall of Pakistan's Textile Industry: An Analytical View" published by Javed Memon, Abdul Aziz and Muhammad Qayyum.     


Pakistan Textile Exports Growth. Source: Javed Memon

Pakistan experienced rapid economic and human capital growth in the years 2000 to 2008 on President Pervez Musharraf's watch. Savings, investments and exports hit new records and the rate of increase in human development reached new highs not seen before or since this period.  Without this human capital, there would be no tech industry, no freelancers and no fast-growing tech exports today.

Employment Growth in South Asia. Source: World Bank

Pakistan's employment growth was the highest in the South Asia region in 2000-2010, followed by Nepal, Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka in that order, according to a World Bank report titled "More and Better Jobs in South Asia".

Comparing Per Capita GDP Trajectory in South Asia. Source: The Economist

Until 2010, Bangladesh was a laggard in the South Asia region. Its per capita income was about half of Pakistan's. Now Bangladesh's per capita GDP is higher than both India's and Pakistan's. What changed? The biggest change is Bangladeshi leader Shaikh Hasina's decision to stifle the unruly Opposition and the media to bring political and economic stability to the South Asian nation of 160 million people. It has eliminated a constant sense of crisis and assured investors and businesses of continuity of government policies. With development taking precedence over democracy, Shaikh Hasina followed the example of Asian Tigers  by focusing on export-led economic growth of her country. She incentivized the export-oriented garment industry and invested in human development. Bangladesh now outperforms India and Pakistan in a whole range of socioeconomic indicators: exports, economic growth, infant mortality rate, primary school enrollment, fertility rate and life expectancy.    

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Wednesday, February 1, 2023

Pakistanis Remain Hopeful Amid Crises: 69% Think Their Children Will Do Better

Pakistan is in the middle of multiple serious crises. But the vast majority of Pakistanis feel that they have better lives than their parents did, and they think their children will have even better lives than theirs, according to a Gallup International Poll of 64 countries conducted from August to October last year. The poll asked two questions: 1) Do you feel your life is better, worse or roughly similar to that  of your parents? and 2) Do you think your children will have a better, worse or roughly the same life as you? The answers to these questions reveal that Pakistanis are among the top 5 most positive nations among 64 countries polled by Gallup International. Anecdotal evidence in terms of packed shopping malls and restaurants in Pakistan's major cities confirms it. Such positivity augurs well for Pakistan's prospects of successfully dealing with the current crises. It will drive the nation's recovery. 

Doing Better Than Parents. Source: Gallup International

Pakistanis Among Most Optimistic: 

Nearly two-thirds (65%) of Pakistanis said they live better than their parents did. And 69% of Pakistani parents think their children will have better lives than they do. In neighboring India, 54% of respondents feel their lives are better than their parents' while only 43% say their children will have better lives than theirs'.  The global average for the former is 51% and it is 44% for the latter. The poll results put Pakistanis among the world's five most hopeful nations. 

Optimism For Children. Source: Gallup International


Most of the countries are positive on both questions, but if one looks for instance for countries with both above 50% positive answers, Nigeria stands out with 171 (81% positive for today plus 90% positive for tomorrow), followed by Kosovo (162), the United Arab Emirates (150), Ghana (141) and Pakistan (134), according to Gallup International. 

Sum of Percentages of Positive Answers to Both Questions. Source: Gallup

Pakistan (69% better minus 18% worse) is among the most positive countries. India is much less positive (43% minus 33%). Nigeria (90% minus 6%) tops the list in terms of positivity and the most negative is Slovenia (14% minus 53%). Among the prominent countries where GIA could poll, expectations for their children’s future are highest in Nigeria, followed by Russia (52% minus 10%), Mexico (48% minus 30%) and the USA (43% minus 31%). When combining the two questions, another perspective is added. For instance, Moldova shows a total of 86 (45% saying that their live is worse  than the one of their parents plus 41% expecting a worse life of today’s children), followed in this negative ranking by North Macedonia (82: 35% negative assessments plus 47% negative predictions), Afghanistan (81), Syria and Italy (78), etc.

Economic Mobility in Pakistan: 

Pakistanis' positive responses in the Gallup poll appear to be supported by a World Bank study. Economic mobility across generations, also known as intergenerational mobility (IGM), is a key measure of human progress. It shows that Pakistan is doing relatively well, according to a World Bank sponsored study. The analysis examines whether those born in poverty or in prosperity are destined to remain in the same economic circumstances into which they were born, and looks back over a half a century at whether children’s lives are better or worse than their parents’ in different parts of the world.

Inter-Generational Income Mobility Map of the World 2018. Source: World Bank


Intergenerational Income Mobility Study:

The World Bank study uses a newly created 2018 database—the Global Database of Intergenerational Mobility (GDIM)—that covers more than 95 percent of the global population.  Intergenerational income mobility measures how children's incomes compare with their parents' incomes at similar stages of life over a period of 50 years.

Inter-Generational Income Inequality Scatter Plot of the World 2018. Source: World Bank


The study found that higher intergenerational income mobility is associated with lower income inequality.

Inclusive Development: 

More and more Pakistanis are sharing in their nation's development, according to The World Economic Forum (WEF). Pakistan ranks 47 among 74 emerging economies ranked for inclusive development by the WEF released report at Davos, Switzerland. Inclusive development in the South Asian country has increased 7.56% over the last 5 years. The World Economic Forum assesses inclusive development  based on "living standards, environmental sustainability and protection of future generations from further indebtedness."  

“Man can live about forty days without food, about three days without water, about eight minutes without air...but only for one second without hope.”  American author Hal Lindsey


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