As
Pakistanis celebrate
Pakistan Day today, March 23, 2013, there are some who are questioning the founder's
wisdom in seeking partition of India to carve out
Pakistan as an
independent nation. They do not recognize today's
Pakistan as
Jinnah's
Pakistan. The doubters justifiably point to the
rising tide of intolerance and
increasing violence and a whole range of problems and crises
Pakistan is facing. Many in the
oppressed Shia community wonder aloud if it was a
mistake to demand a separate country for Muslims of undivided India.
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| Wax Statues of Quaid-e-Azam Jinnah and Mahatma Gandhi in Islamabad |
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Are the critics correct in their assessment when they imply that Muslims in Pakistan would have been better off without partition? To answer this question, let us look at the following facts and data:
1. Muslims, the New Untouchables in India:
While India maintains its facade of religious tolerance, democracy and secularism through a few high-profile Muslim tokens among its high officials and celebrities, the ground reality for the vast majority of ordinary Muslims is much harsher.
An Indian government commission headed by former Indian Chief Justice Rajendar Sachar confirms that
Muslims are the new untouchables in caste-ridden and communal India. Indian Muslims suffer heavy discrimination in almost every field from education and housing to jobs. Their incarceration rates are also much higher than their Hindu counterparts.
According to Sachar Commission report, Muslims are now worse off than the Dalit caste, or those called untouchables.
Some 52% of Muslim men are unemployed, compared with 47% of Dalit men.
Among Muslim women, 91% are unemployed, compared with 77% of Dalit
women. Almost half of Muslims over the age of 46 ca not read or write.
While making up 11% of the population,
Muslims account for 40% of
India’s prison population. Meanwhile, they hold less than 5% of government jobs
.
2. Upward Economic Mobility in Pakistan:
In spite of all of its problems, Pakistan has continued to offer
higher upward economic and
social mobility
to its citizens over the last two decades than India. Since 1990, Pakistan's middle
class had expanded by 36.5% and India's by only 12.8%, according to an
ADB report titled "Asia's Emerging Middle Class: Past, Present And Future".
Miles Corak of University of Ottawa calculates that the intergenerational earnings elasticity in
Pakistan is 0.46, the same as in Switzerland. It means that a difference
of 100% between the incomes of a rich father and a poor father is
reduced to 46% difference between their sons' incomes. Among the 22
countries studied, Peru, China and Brazil have the lowest economic
mobility with inter-generational elasticity of 0.67, 0.60 and 0.58
respectively. The highest economic mobility is offered by Denmark
(0.15), Norway (0.17) and Finland (0.18).
The author also looked at Gini coefficient of each country and found
reasonably good correlation between Gini and intergenerational income
elasticity.
More evidence of upward mobility is offered by recent
Euromonitor market research indicating that Pakistanis are seeing rising disposable incomes. It says that there
were 1.8 million Pakistani households (7.55% of all households) and 7.9
million Indian households (3.61% of all households) in 2009 with
disposable incomes of $10,001 or more
. This
translates into 282% increase (vs 232% in India) from 1995-2009 in
households with disposable incomes of $10,001 or more. Consumer spending
in Pakistan has increased at a 26 percent average pace
the past three years, compared with 7.7 percent for Asia, according to
Bloomberg.
3. East Pakistan Debacle:
Critics love to point out Pakistan's break-up in 1971 as evidence of failure of Jinnah's Pakistan. They lavish praise on Bangladesh and scold Pakistan as part of the annual ritual a few days before Quaid-e-Azam's birthday every year.
Economic
gap between East and West Pakistan in 1960s is often cited as a
key reason for the secessionist movement led by Shaikh Mujib's Awami
League and the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. This disparity has grown
over the last 40 years, and the per capita income in Pakistan now stands
at more than twice Bangladesh's in 2012 in nominal dollar terms, higher than 1.6
in 1971.
Here are some figures from Economist magazine's EIU 2013:
Bangladesh GDP per head: $695 (PPP: $1,830)
Pakistan GDP per head: $1,410 (PPP: $2,960)
Pakistan-Bangladesh GDP per head Ratio: 2.03 ( PPP: 1.62)
4. Poverty, Hunger, Other Socioeconomic Indicators:
Pakistan's employment growth has been the highest in South Asia region
since 2000, followed by Nepal, Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka in that
order, according to a recent World Bank report titled
"More and Better Jobs in South Asia".
Total
employment in South Asia (excluding Afghanistan and Bhutan) rose from
473 million in 2000 to 568 million in 2010, creating an average of just
under 800,000 new jobs a month. In all countries except Maldives and Sri
Lanka, the largest share of the employed are the low‐end self-employed.
Pakistanis have
higher graduation rates in education and suffer lower levels of hunger and poverty than Indians and Bangladeshis.
Pakistanis spend more time in schools and colleges and graduate at a
higher rate than their Indian counterparts in 15+ age group, according
to a report on educational achievement by Harvard University researchers
Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee.
Pakistan has seen its
human capital grow significantly over the last decade. With nearly 16% of its population in 25-34 years age group having
college degrees,
Pakistan is well ahead of India and Indonesia,
according to
Global Education Digest 2009 published by UNESCO Institute of Statistics. UNESCO data also shows that
Pakistan's lead is growing with younger age groups.
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| Barro-Lee Data on Educational Attainment in India and Pakistan |
Here is a summary of Barro-Lee's 2010 data in percentage of 15+ age group students who have enrolled in and-or completed primary, secondary and tertiary education:
Education Level.......India........Pakistan
Primary (Total)........20.9..........21.8
Primary (Completed)....18.9..........19.3
Secondary(Total).......40.7..........34.6
Secondary(Completed)...0.9...........22.5
College(Total).........5.8...........5.5
College(Completed).....3.1...........3.9
According to the latest
world hunger index rankings, Pakistan ranks 57 while India and Bangladesh are worse at 65 and 68 among 79 countries ranked by International Food Policy Research Institute in 2012.
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| World Hunger Index 2012 |
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The latest
World Bank data shows that India's poverty rate of 27.5%, based on
India's current poverty line of $1.03 per person per day, is more than 10 percentage points higher than
Pakistan's 17.2%.
Assam (urban), Punjab and Himachal Pradesh are the only three Indian
states with similar or lower poverty rates than Pakistan's.
Pakistan
ranks well ahead of India and in the middle among 15 similar countries
compared by the
Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). Other countries in
this group include India, Djibouti, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Moldova, Mongolia,
Nicaragua, Palestine, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Solomon Island,
Uzbekistan, Vietnam and Yemen.
Poor Treatment of Minorities:
Clearly, Pakistanis have not lived up to
Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah's vision of a tolerant and democratic Pakistan where the basic rights of all of its citizens, including religious and ethnic minorities, are fully respected. Popular Pakistani columnist
Ardeshir Cowasjee put it well when he wrote: "Fortunately for him, Jinnah did
not live long enough to see his dream betrayed by men unworthy even to
utter his name. He died before total disillusionment could set in
(though he had his suspicions that it was on its way) and broke his
heart. From what we know of him, he was that rare being, an
incorruptible man in all the many varied meanings of the word
corruption, purchasable by no other, swayed by no other, perverted by no
other; a man of honor, integrity and high ideals. That the majority of
his countrymen have been found wanting in these qualities is this
country's tragedy."
Defying Prophets of Doom and Gloom:
Pakistan finds itself in the midst many serious crises of governance, economy, energy, security, etc. I do think, however, that all of the available and credible data and indicators confirm the fact that Muslims in Pakistan are not only better off than they are elsewhere in South Asia, they also enjoy
higher economic and social mobility than their counterparts in India and Bangladesh.
On Pakistan's National Day today, let me remind everyone that Pakistanis have made a habit of proving pessimist
pundits wrong. Pakistani state was dismissed as a temporary "tent" and a
"nissen hut" at birth
by Viceroy Lord Mountbatten in 1947. That same "nissen hut" is now a
nuclear power about which Brookings' Stephen Cohen says as follows:
“One of the most important puzzles of India-Pakistan relations is not
why the smaller Pakistan feels encircled and threatened, but why the
larger India does. It would seem that India, seven times more populous
than Pakistan and five times its size, and which defeated Pakistan in
1971, would feel more secure. This has not been the case and Pakistan
remains deeply embedded in Indian thinking. There are historical,
strategic, ideological, and domestic reasons why Pakistan remains the
central obsession of much of the Indian strategic community, just as
India remains Pakistan’s.”
Here's a video discussion on Pakistan:
Imran Khan's March 23 Jalsa and Musharraf's Return to Pakistan from
WBT TV on
Vimeo.
Here's a video report on widespread discrimination against Muslims in India:
Muslims in India by desitvonline
Related Links:
Haq's Musings
Human Capital Growth in Pakistan
Upwardly Mobile Pakistan
Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah's Vision of Pakistan
Rising Tide of Intolerance in Pakistan
Muslims-New Untouchables in India
Violent Conflict Marks Pakistan's Social Revolution
Economic Mobility in Pakistan
Poverty Across South Asia
Graduation Rates in Pakistan
Introspection of Pakistan's Creation
