Thursday, October 27, 2011

Pakistan's Expected Demographic Dividend

Pakistan has the world’s sixth largest population, seventh largest diaspora and the ninth largest labor force. With rapidly declining fertility and aging populations in the industrialized world, Pakistan's growing talent pool is likely to play a much bigger role to satisfy global demand for workers in the 21st century and contribute to the well-being of Pakistan as well as other parts of the world.



With half the population below 20 years and 60 per cent below 30 years, Pakistan is well-positioned to reap what is often described as "demographic dividend", with its workforce growing at a faster rate than total population. This trend is estimated to accelerate over several decades. Contrary to the oft-repeated talk of doom and gloom, average Pakistanis are now taking education more seriously than ever. Youth literacy is about 70% and growing, and young people are spending more time in schools and colleges to graduate at higher rates than their Indian counterparts in 15+ age group, according to a report on educational achievement by Harvard University researchers Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee. Vocational training is also getting increased focus since 2006 under National Vocational Training Commission (NAVTEC) with help from Germany, Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands.



Pakistan's work force is over 60 million strong, according to the Federal Bureau of Statistics. With increasing female participation, the country's labor pool is rising at a rate of 3.5% a year, according to International Labor Organization.

With rising urban middle class, there is substantial and growing demand in Pakistan from students, parents and employers for private quality higher education along with a willingness and capacity to pay relatively high tuition and fees, according to the findings of Austrade, an Australian govt agency promoting trade. Private institutions are seeking affiliations with universities abroad to ensure they offer information and training that is of international standards.

Trans-national education (TNE) is a growing market in Pakistan and recent data shows evidence of over 40 such programs running successfully in affiliation with British universities at undergraduate and graduate level, according to The British Council. Overall, the UK takes about 65 per cent of the TNE market in Pakistan.

It is extremely important for Pakistan's public policy makers and the nation's private sector to fully appreciate the expected demographic dividend as a great opportunity. The best way for them to demonstrate it is to push a pro-youth agenda of education, skills development, health and fitness to take full advantage of this tremendous opportunity. Failure to do so would be a missed opportunity that could be extremely costly for Pakistan and the rest of the world.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistanis Study Abroad

Pakistan's Youth Bulge

Pakistani Diaspora World's 7th Largest

Pakistani Graduation Rate Higher Than India's

India and Pakistan Contrasted in 2011

Educational Attainment Dataset By Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee

Quality of Higher Education in India and Pakistan

Developing Pakistan's Intellectual Capital

Intellectual Wealth of Nations

Pakistan's Story After 64 Years of Independence

Pakistan Ahead of India on Key Human Development Indices

Working Women in Pakistan

Pakistan Youth Roundtable

Scholarships at Foreign Universities

Institute of International Education--Open Doors

UK's Higher Education Statistics Agency Report

Austrade on Education in Pakistan

89 comments:

Tahir said...

No doubt Pakistan is in a strong position to take advantage of the young population, but to be able to fulfill the requirements of other countries we will have have to impart vocational training in different trades.

Hope our future Government can plan something, the present Govt is good for nothing and are not interested in long term planning for the benefit of the country, there only aim is to amass as much wealth as they can while they are in control.

Riaz Haq said...

Tahir: "Hope our future Government can plan something, the present Govt is good for nothing.."

Through most of the years since 1947, Pakistani govts have been part of the problem, not part of the solution.

Pakistanis have accomplished much in spite of their cotrrupt and incompetent government. They can continue to do so in the future through a more organized private sector.

I. KAMAL said...

What a great article again, Riaz Saheb! Gives one hope:

"Zara num ho yo ye maTTi bahut zarKhaiz hai saaqee"
(With a bit of nurturing, this soil can bring forth miracles!)

The two major polical parties have ruined the country by indulging in "plunder and loot by turn". I hope the forces of change would unite before the next elections and create a corruption-free Pakistan, with absolute meritocracy as the sole criterion for selection and continuation.

Riaz Haq said...

Anon: "my point push for improvement. If you say Pakistan is the best country in the world, no improvement then."

Misleading articles like the one you refer to do not "push for improvement".

Enough of this self-flagellation!

The author Niaz Murtaza is factually incorrect on a number of data points. For example, India lags behind its neighbors, Pakistan and Bangladesh, on basic human development indices like life expectancy at birth and mean or average years of schooling and gender parity, according to the last United Nations Development Program (UNDP) report.

On gender parity, Pakistan ranks 112, ten places ahead of India at 122.

Titled “Real Wealth of Nations: Pathways to Human Development”, the report said life expectancy at birth in India is 64.4 years, while in Pakistan it is 67.2 years. In Bangladesh, life expectancy is 66.9 years.

Similarly, mean years of schooling in India is 4.4 years while in Pakistan and Bangladesh it is 4.9 and 4.8 years respectively.

And India lags behind Pakistan on such basics as nutrition (Indian Planning Commission’s Syeda Hameed) and public hygiene (UNICEF).

And in the last decade, Pakistan has graduated more people from schools and colleges (Barro & Lee of Harvard U) and created more jobs (World Bank Jobs report) as percent of its population than India has.

Habib said...

S. Akbar Zaidi from DAWN
-------------------------

"That Pakistan’s economy has been performing at a level which is far below its assumed potential, or that its neighbours and other countries in the region are doing better, is a fact which has been acknowledged by serious economists for some years now. Even Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have better economic growth rates compared to Pakistan, and more importantly, unlike Pakistan’s roller-coaster economy, countries in the region are locking in to steady states of economic growth."

Riaz Haq said...

Occasional and isolated but nonetheless tragic suicide cases like Raja Khan's in Pakistan get a lot of media coverage as they should. Meanwhile, over 200,000 farmer suicides in India have passed with little media attention in India.

Here's a Washington Post report on rising suicides in India:

NEW DELHI — Ram Babu’s last days were typical in India’s growing rash of suicides.

The poor farmer’s crop failed and he defaulted on the $6,000 loan he had taken to buy a tractor. The bank’s collectors hounded him, even hiring drummers to go round the village drawing attention to his shame.

“My father found it unbearable. He was an honorable man and he couldn’t take the humiliation. The next day he hanged himself from a tree on his farm,” his son Ram Gulam said Friday.

Babu’s suicide went unreported in local newspapers, just another statistic in a country where more than 15 people kill themselves every hour, according to a new government report.

The report released late Thursday said nearly 135,000 people killed themselves in the country of 1.2 billion last year, a 5.9 percent jump in the number of suicides over the past year.

The suicide rate increased to 11.4 per 100,000 people in 2010 from 10.9 the year before, according to the statistics from the National Crime Records Bureau.

Financial difficulties and debts led to most of the male suicides while women were driven to take their lives because of domestic pressures, including physical and mental abuse and demands for dowry.

A 2008 World Health Organization report ranked India 41st for its suicide rate, but because of its huge population it accounted for 20 percent of global suicides.

The largest numbers of suicides were reported from the southern Indian states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, where tens of thousands of impoverished farmers have killed themselves after suffering under insurmountable debts.

The loans — from banks and loan sharks — were often used to buy seeds and farm equipment, or to pay large dowries to get their daughters married. But a bad harvest could plunge the farmer over the edge.

Sociologists say the rapid rise in incomes in India’s booming economy has resulted in a surge in aspirations as well among the lower and middle classes, and the failure to attain material success can trigger young people to suicide.

“The support that traditionally large Indian families and village communities offered no longer exists in urban situations. Young men and women move to the cities and find they have no one to turn to for succor in times of distress,” said Abhilasha Kumari, a sociology professor in New Delhi.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/government-report-says-15-people-commit-suicide-every-hour-in-india/2011/10/28/gIQAVFGWOM_story.html

Riaz Haq said...

Here's WHO data on suicide rates in Asia:

Pakistan has the lowest estimated prevalence of less than 3 per 100,000, followed by Thailand at 7.3 per 100,000. Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Singapore have low to medium rates of between 9.9 and 13.1 per
100,000. Higher rates of above 15 per 100,000 are seen in China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Hong Kong SAR), and India and still higher rates of above 20 per 100,000 are seen in China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Sri Lanka.


http://www.who.int/mental_health/resources/suicide_prevention_asia_chapter1.pdf

Zachary Latif said...

I link to you fairly regularly at Brown Pundits since you are probably the only internet resource that is able to give a "correct" (neither optimistic or pessimistic) analysis of South Asia and its constituent economies.

In a way I think the unduly "negative" attitude of Pakistan, particularly vis a vis all its South Asian neighbours, is perhaps a good thing because that means we relentless focus on the failures of our nation.

Paradoxically I have great hope for Pakistan and Pakistanis because we indulge in so much "self-flagellation" when as you show that so much of it is unjustified. Pakistan will motor on and will redeem the Pakistani people.

MJ Akbar said the idea of India is stronger than the Indian but that the Pakistani is stronger than the idea of Pakistan. I disagree with this entirely I think the idea of Pakistan is our saving grace (if properly understood as a progressive, intellectual & secular concept and free from its jingoistic nationalistic elements that it is often hijacked too.)

Ashmit (India) said...

"India lags behind its neighbors, Pakistan and Bangladesh, on basic human development indices"

How then do you explian the superior ranking of India as compared to Pak. Let me guess - propaganda?!

"the report said life expectancy at birth in India is 64.4 years, while in Pakistan it is 67.2 years...And India lags behind Pakistan on such basics as nutrition"

Let's not miss the fine print here Mr Haq. Life expectancy might be higher but so is the under 5 mortality rate (india - 69, pak - 89). Moreover, your talk of wide spread undernoursishment in India betrays the numbers. 22 percent of india qualifies as undernourished, as compared to 23% for pak. And need i mention, a greater allocation of the indian budget to health when compared to pak (1.1% vs 0.8)

"mean years of schooling in India is 4.4 years while in Pakistan and Bangladesh it is 4.9 and 4.8 years respectively."

Again, let us not mask the details to suit your hypothesis. Pak does only marginally better in mean years of schooling for adults. However, on most other indices such as adult literacy rate, combined gross enrolment ratio, expenditure on edu and expected years of schooling for children - India stands head and shoulders above its neighbour. So much for your wild fantasies of demographic dividend. BTW - the unemloyment remains to be continually high in pak. Quite apprently, the fragile pak economy just cannot absorb the young (un educated) workforce.

"And in the last decade, Pakistan has graduated more people from schools and colleges (Barro & Lee of Harvard U) and created more jobs (World Bank Jobs report)"

Created more jobs?! Is that not supposed to arrest the unemployment rate? India might not have created as many jobs on a per million basis, but it's india that has lower unemployment.

And lets not forget the composite HDI index. While india has consistently outperformed the average for south asia, pak on the other hand has struggled to keep pace, underperforming the south asian average. India is also closer to the world average, when compared to pak.

Your wholesale dismisal of india is clearly not backed by data. India is not a perfect country. Far from it, there are deep seated misconceptions that the priviliged indian middle class needs to challenge. But, let's not kid ourselves into believing fairy tales about Pak.

PS - data sourced from following links.

1. http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/IND.html

2. http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/PAK.html

Cheers.

Riaz Haq said...

Zachary: "Pakistan will motor on and will redeem the Pakistani people."

I share your optimism.

While many of the critics I berate see Pakistan's glass completely empty, I prefer to see it half full. And I believe Pakistanis' focus should be on how to fill it up to the rim.

It's better to light a candle than to curse darkness.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2008/09/light-candle-dont-curse-darkness-in.html

Riaz Haq said...

Ashmit: "How then do you explian the superior ranking of India as compared to Pak"

It just shows the inadequacy of HDI index in accurately assessing human development when it puts India ahead of Pakistan, in spite of India's shorter life expectancy (UNDP), greater multidimensional poverty (Oxford), greater hunger (IFPRI), worse hygiene (UNICEF), better gender parity (UNDP) higher disease burdens(WHO) and shorter time in school and lower graduation rates (Harvard's Barro & Lee).

Riaz Haq said...

Here are some of the findings of a recent paper by Durre-e-Nayab of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) titled "Estimating the Middle Class in Pakistan":

Depending on the definition applied, it is found that the size of the middle class ranges drastically in the country, as can be seen from Table 2. Applying the definitions having solely an economic rationale, we find the middle class to range from 60 per cent of the population (Table 2, Definition One) to being totally non-existent (Table 2, Definition Five). Translating it in number of people, using the population base of 187 million as it stands on mid-year 2011 (USCB, 2011 and UN, 2009), the size of the middle class ranges from a huge 112 million to no one. This variability, as stressed earlier, reflects the complexities and
arbitrariness associated with defining and measuring the middle class.

Among all the definitions given above, Definition Eight and Definition Thirteen, based on gradation of income and expenditure per person per day, respectively, are currently the most
extensively used measure employed to estimate the middle class (as also used by Chun (2010) and Bhandari (2010) among others)3. This definition too, however, suffers from the same drawback of relying solely on one criterion. As also pointed out by Eisenhauer (2008), Atkinson and Bourguignon (1982), Kolm (1977), Bourguignon and Chakravarty (2003) and Gilbert (2003), being a part of the middle class should be ascertained by a person’s socio-economic attributes holistically. Income is an important aspect but other qualities like level of health, wealth,
education and specialised knowledge are also significant factors for constituting a class. Technically speaking too, most of the definitions suffer from serious drawbacks. For instance, the ‘quintile approach’ can be useful in measuring or comparing income or expenditure growth but cannot be used as a method to estimate the middle class as the size cannot shrink or expand and by definition would permenantly remain at 60 percent. Any denomination of the median income should also be used with caution in low income countries like Pakistan. Taking 75 per cent of the median income might lead to the inclusion of people below the poverty line in countries with very low income levels. In the above-stated definitions and resulting estimates there are issues with the lower bounds
set for inclusion in the middle class. While some of the definitions (like Definition Three and Five) set the limit too high4, resulting in a very small middle class or in the absence of a middle class altogether, there are other definitions that set the limit too low, like those that set the lower
bound at $2 per person per day. Does the middle class begin where poverty ends? Ravallion (2010: 446) supports, “the premise that middle class living standards begin when poverty ends”.
This paper, however, supports the argument forwarded by Horrigan and Haugen (1988:5) when they posit, “to ensure that the lower endpoint of the middle class represents an income
significantly above the poverty line”. The middle class should, hence, include only those households that do not face the risk of experiencing poverty at all, and are not just those who
are outside the the realm of poverty at a particular time.


http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-71.pdf

Ashmit (India) said...

Typical of you, Mr Haq - misdirection. Firstly, why shoot the messenger (HDI). Secondly, there is little to sugggest that you have anything to contest my claims of pathetic performnace by pak on several indicators than i enlisted in my last comment. Moving ahead.

"better gender parity (UNDP)"

Do have a careful look at the statistics put forth by UNICEF, especially in the segment tiled "women".

(http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/southasia.html)

It's amusing of you to boast of "better gender parity" when on every unicef indicator (for "women") pakistan fares poorly when compared to its much larger neighbour. The indicators such as life expectancy of females, literacy rates and different enrolment ratios, use of contraceptives, antenatal care, delivery care, maternal mortality rates do manage to puncture you flailing attempts of putting forth shameless rhetoric as fact.

"higher disease burdens(WHO)"

(http://apps.who.int/ghodata/?vid=10400&theme=country)

Meanwhile, here are some more statistics to add a different perspective. "Higher disease burden" in India? Data clearly shows that pak has higher infant moratlity rate, higher under 5 mortality rate, higher incidence, prevalence and deaths due to TB, higher maternal mortality rates, lower public expenditure on a per capita basis and as %age of GDP, higher years of life lost due to communicable diseases, lower number of hospital beds per 10,000 people. How in your right mind do you see pak as being the better of the two?

"India's shorter life expectancy"

Really?! You would want that, but WHO thinks differently. WHO stats reveal that life expectancy at birth for India is 65 years, while for Pak is stands at 63 years.

"greater hunger (IFPRI)"

Yet, the notoriously high undernourishment levels in Pak appear to be appaling when taken in context with your almost self congratulatory tone. Undernourishment in Pak stands at 23% of population, which is higher than "hungry" india.

And outside of these social indicators, lets also not forget that as opposed to the pak economy, limping forward on crutches of high inflation, high interest, high unemplyment, low investment, fiscal indiscipline - India is the 2nd fastest growing country amongst the large economies.

Moreover, if analysts at E&Y are to be believed, the Indian eco will begin outperforming China as soon as 2013.

(http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-10-25/india/30319483_1_gdp-growth-eurozone-indian-growth)

Both countries are a long way from achieving the MDGs. Therefore, to claim unquestionable superiority with unabashed arrogance doesn't seem either objective or mature.

Cheers.

Riaz Haq said...

Ashmit: "Yet, the notoriously high undernourishment levels in Pak appear to be appaling when taken in context with your almost self congratulatory tone."

Pakistan has not done well relative to many other nations. Hunger is rising in Pakistan.

World hunger data collected from 2006 to 2009 shows that Pakistan's hunger index score has worsened this year to 20.7 (based on 2009 data and reported in 2011) after three prior consecutive years of improvement. International Food Research Institute's GHI (Global Hunger Index) score for Pakistan improved from 21.7 in 2008 to 21.0 in 2009 to 19.1 in 2010, and its world ranking has dropped to 59 in 2011 from 52 in 2010. It was ranked 61 in 2008 and 58 in 2009 on a list of 81+ nations.

Among other South Asian nations, India's GHI score improved to 23.7 in 2011 to where it was in three years earlier in 2008 after worsening from 23.7 (2008) to 23.9 (2009) to 24.1 (2010). India's ranking remained at 67 in 2011, the same as it was in 2010 but worse than 66 in 2008 and 65 in 2009.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/10/world-food-day-pakistan-hunger-rising.html

Now let me draw your attention to what Syeda Hameed of Indian Planning Commission has to say on this subject:

'India worse than Pakistan, Bangladesh on nourishment'

'I should not compare. But countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are better,' she said. The conference was organised Monday by the Confederation of Indian Industry and the Ministry of Development of Northeastern Region.


According to India's National Family Health Survey, almost 46 percent of children under the age of three are undernourished - an improvement of just one percent in the last seven years. This is only a shade better than Sub-Saharan Africa where about 35 percent of children are malnourished.


Hameed said the government's Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) programme, which is a flagship programme to improve the health of women and children, had not shown results despite a lot of money being spent on it in the past few years.

'We have not been successful in improving the status of health of our women and children,' she added.

http://newshopper.sulekha.com/india-worse-than-pakistan-bangladesh-on-nourishment_news_927008.htm

Ashmit (India) said...

"Now let me draw your attention to what Syeda Hameed of Indian Planning Commission has to say on this subject"

"Has to say"?! She HAD said this over three years back. Might be a litttle outdated in the current context, as databases of UNDP, UNICEF, WHO and FAO all clearly point towards higher undernourishment levels in pak.

Riaz Haq said...

Ashmit: ""Has to say"?! She HAD said this over three years back. Might be a litttle outdated in the current context, as databases of UNDP, UNICEF, WHO and FAO all clearly point towards higher undernourishment levels in pak. "

Read what IFPRI said....India's GHI score improved to 23.7 in 2011 to where it was three years earlier in 2008 after worsening from 23.7 (2008) to 23.9 (2009) to 24.1 (2010). India's ranking remained at 67 in 2011, the same as it was in 2010 but worse than 66 in 2008 and 65 in 2009.

Unlike the UN agencies you quote, IFPRI is more reliable because it specializes in the area of food and hunger, and publishes its scores and rankings every year.

Ashmit (India) said...

"IFPRI is more reliable because it specializes in the area of food and hunger"

Absolutely. But wouldn't you also agree that that WHO and FAO would know a thing or two about undernourishment.

And speaking of which, I think its important to appreciate that hunger and undernourishment, though associated, are not quite the same.

Hunger, as IFPRI indicates, is acute in India. However, there is also no denying that a greater percentage of people in pak suffer from undernourishment.

Therefore, despite pak, technically, qualfying as "less hungry" - given that undernourishment levels are high (and higher than India), there is little room for perverse jingoism in celebrating the IFPRI data as pak scoring one over india.

Riaz Haq said...

Ashmit: "given that undernourishment levels are high (and higher than India), there is little room for perverse jingoism in celebrating the IFPRI data as pak scoring one over india."

I see little to celebrate about 22% vs 23% under nutrition.

Riaz Haq said...

Karachi's HDI is about 0.799, much higher than Pakistan's national human development index and comparable to European nations of Portugal and Poland, and higher than Malaysia's.

Here's a brief UNDP description of human dev in Pakistan:

According the Human Development Report 2010, Pakistan’s HDI value increased from 0.311 to 0.490 during 1980 to 2010, an increase of 58% or average annual increase of about 1.5% which ranked it 10 in terms of HDI improvement in comparison to the average progress of other countries. Pakistan’s life expectancy at birth increased by more than 9 years, mean years of schooling increased by about 3 years and expected years of schooling increased by almost 4 years. Pakistan’s GNI per capita increased by 92 per cent during the same period.
Pakistan’s 2010 HDI of 0.490 is below the average of 0.516 for countries in South Asia. It is also below the average of 0.592 for medium human development countries. From South Asia, Pakistan’s 2010 “HDI neighbours”, i.e. countries which are close in HDI rank and population size, are India and Bangladesh, which had HDIs ranked 119 and 129 respectively. Pakistan is also compared to the Islamic Republic of Iran, a high human development country.


http://undp.org.pk/about-pakistan.html

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a description of Pakistan as an outsourcing destination by sourcingline.com:

Pakistan is rapidly emerging as a leading sourcing nation, and currently ranks eighth among top outsourcing countries in 2010. It is becoming a key destination for software development and information technology services, such as medical transcription and call centers.

Pakistan’s strengths lie in its English speaking workforce; complete repatriation of foreign companies' profit; equity ownership; and tax exemption on software until the year 2016. The most popular BPO sub-sectors in Pakistan are call centers, particularly in the areas of accountancy, medical transcription, animation development, and data entry.

Companies that have invested within the borders include Google, GE, Citi Group, and Bank of America. High-end IT services are also growing, with IBM, Microsoft, and Cisco expanding their operations in the country as well.

In the past, the government has spent nearly USD $70 million in order to promote Pakistan's software industry. To do this, PSEB (Pakistan Software Export Board) has constructed IT parks and leases 750,000 square feet to IT companies. The government hopes to increase the IT sector to USD $11 billion by the end of 2011, achieving more is less than a decade than what other countries in the technology scene have achieved in 15-20 years. Pakistan has also started developing start-ups for domain expertise, idea content and intellectual property for graduates who plan to start companies in IT. Another trend is the industry's shift from the "volume driven low-margin voice-based business” into higher values, such as functional BPO.


http://www.sourcingline.com/outsourcing-location/pakistan

Ashmit (India) said...

"I see little to celebrate about 22% vs 23% under nutrition."

A few points here. Firstly, according to FAO the gap is much wider. FAO stats record undernourishment in india at 21% as opposed to 26% in pak. Secondly, celebrating?! far from it, I am only driving home the point that the shambolic performance of pak on several indicies that I have listed, really does not warrant your unfounded confidence in dismissing India and celebrating pak as outperformer in south asia. Despite your tall talk, stats clearly reveal that pak is ailing, on both economoic an social indicators.

"Karachi's HDI is about 0.799, much higher than Pakistan's national human development index and comparable to European nations of Portugal and Poland, and higher than Malaysia's"

Now you boast of Karachi as per the HDI. However, if you recall - you had claimed earlier - "It just shows the inadequacy of HDI index in accurately assessing human development". Contradictions galore, Mr. Haq.

Secondly, to add to your criticism of HDI as a barometer of human development - the inability of the index to accomodate the social, psychological and the physical impact of crime does render the index useless especially in the context of a city such as karachi. Would you still be able to claim superiority over portugal, poland and malaysia if the gun slinging in Karachi was accounted for?

Thirdly, India too has its own pockets of smart development. Chandigarh has an HDI score of 0.860 - much higher than the trio of portugal, poland and malaysia, but also higher than Greece, Italy, UK, Luxembourg, UAE, Singapore and Hungary.

Riaz Haq said...

Ashmit: "FAO stats record undernourishment in india at 21% as opposed to 26% in pak."

FAO data is not only inconsistent with IFRPI and India's own planning commission, it's also internally inconsistent with FAO's other reports which show per capita consumption of almost all food groups, particularly milk and dairy, is much higher in Pakistan than India, and inequality in Pakistan is much less than in India.

According to the FAO, the average dairy consumption of the developing countries is still very low (45 kg of all dairy products in liquid milk equivalent), compared with the average of 220 kg in the industrial countries. Few developing countries have per capita consumption exceeding 150 kg (Argentina, Uruguay and some pastoral countries in the Sudano-Sahelian zone of Africa). Among the most populous countries, only Pakistan, at 153 kg per capita, has such a level. In South Asia, where milk and dairy products are preferred foods, India has only 64 kg and Bangladesh 14 kg. East Asia has only 10 kg.

Milk and milk products is what nations like Bangladesh resort to reduce malnutrition.

Riaz Haq said...

Ashmit: "Chandigarh has an HDI score of 0.860"

Chandigarh has a population of only a million, 1/18th of Karachi's population. Karachi is very big and very diverse with people of all ethnic groups migrating from all nooks and corners of Pakistan. Karachi is mini-Pakistan, a much more representative sample of Pakistan than Chadiharh is of India.

Suraj Joshi said...

Riaz,
The link sourcingline.com says:
Pakistan’s economic competitiveness, according to the World Economic Forum, scores low with a GCI index of 3.5, especially when compared to the US (5.4), China (4.8), and Egypt (4.0). Similarly, Pakistan's macroeconomic stability is also low. Its GCI score is 3.2 percent compared to China (4.8), Chile (4.7), and Thailand (4.9). According to the World Bank, Pakistan’s primary problem is maintaining its macroeconomic stability, which has always been difficult. The Bank is working with Pakistan’s government to improve its administration and service delivery, particularly in the areas of civil service reform and financial management recovery."

Furthermore, the same source gives India a better rating:
"Business & economic environment index: 4.2 Rank: 32". Although, India has a long way to go. As I have said Pakistan is not the yardstick and never should be.

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a Dawn report on Pakistan's progress in human development since 1980:

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has been ranked 10th among the countries in term of human development improvement by the United Nations Development Programme’s 20th Human Development Report 2010.

Those among the 135 countries that improved most in Human Development Index (HDI) terms over the past 30 years were led by Oman, which invested energy earnings over the decades in education and public health.

The other nine “Top Movers” are China, Nepal, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Laos, Tunisia, South Korea, Algeria and Morocco. Remarkably, China was the only country that made the “Top 10” list due solely to income performance; the main drivers of HDI achievement were in health and education.

The UNDP report said that in Pakistan, between 1980 and 2010, the HDI value increased by 58 per cent (average annual increase of about 1.5 per cent).

“With such an increase Pakistan is ranked 10 in terms of HDI improvement, which measures progress in comparison to the average progress of countries with a similar initial HDI level”, it added.

Pakistan’s life expectancy at birth increased by more than nine years, mean years of schooling increased by about nine years and expected years of schooling increased by almost 4 years.

Pakistan’s Gross National Income (GNI) per capita increased by 92 per cent during the same period. The relative to other countries in the region, in 1980, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh had close HDI values for countries in South Asia.

However, during the period between 1980 and 2010 the three countries experienced different degrees of progress toward increasing their HDIs states the Report.

The Report introduces the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), which identifies multiple deprivations in the same households in education, health and standard of living.

The average percentage of deprivation experienced by people in multidimensional poverty is 54 per cent.

The MPI, which is the share of the population that is multi-dimensionally poor, adjusted by the intensity of the deprivations, is 0.275.Pakistan’s “HDI neighbors”, India and Bangladesh, have MPIs of 0.296 and 0.291, respectively.


http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/27/pakistan-among-top-10-nations-in-human-development-improvement.html

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a Times of India story on "Aalu Anday", a satirical music video gone viral on Youtube:

NEW DELHI: When the music video of "Aalu Anday", an unsparing song that lampoons Pakistan's top politicians and generals from Ashfaq Kayani to Zia-ul-Haq, from Nawaz Sharif to Imran Khan, was released last month, it immediately became an internet sensation.

But the bitingly satirical number was merely the latest in a long chain of similar popular anti-establishment tracks by other well-known Pakistan singers and groups such as Shehzad Roy, Junoon and Laal who have laughed at and lambasted the high and mighty across the border.

"We are the silent majority of Pakistan who are speaking up now. We are not trying to give solutions, but only trying to create an environment where things can be discussed openly," says 27-year-old Ali Aftab Saeed, a band member of Beygairat Brigade, the Lahore-based 'political rock' band who created Aalu Anday. Incidentally, the three band members (Daniyal Malik and 15-year-old guitarist Hamza Malik being the other two) are self-confessedly 'hardcore' RD Burman fans and Anurag Kashyap admirers.

A little courage in the heart and a guitar in hand go a long way in expressing notes of dissent across the border. The Beygairat Brigade's act is the latest in a tradition where singers and satirists have routinely ridiculed and castigated politicians in their music and lyrics. In 2008, singer Shehzad Roy courted controversy with Laga Reh, a hard-hitting track attacking the establishment.

Earlier Sufi-rock band Junoon faced censorship for songs like Ehtesaab, which hit out at political corruption and was banned by the Pakistani state TV. Now, bands such as Laal have joined the party providing music to the fiery protest poetry of Faiz Ahmed Faiz and Habib Jalib, known for producing art out of defiance. TV channels refused to play their song, Jhooth ka uncha sar, said to be "too anti-army" in sentiment.

"In the beginning Pakistani bands used music to express dissent because other avenues of communication were closed to them. When you are in a repressive environment you naturally find other ways to communicate and music became that outlet. Nowadays things are much more open, but I think the association between music and free speech remains," says satirist and stand-up comic Saad Haroon.

In a country racked by terrorist violence and extreme disillusionment with the state, humour not only works as a form of subversion but also as relief and release.

The identity of Beygairat Brigade is constructed as an antithesis to what they call the "ghairat brigade" (honor brigade): political analysts and TV show hosts who have taken it upon themselves to uphold the honor of the Pakistani state as they understand it.


http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/In-Pakistan-protest-music-is-a-tradition/articleshow/10562389.cms

Riaz Haq said...

Here's an AP story about a Pakistani rapper Adil Omar:

...That was four years ago, and Omar has now recorded songs with several other American rappers, including Everlast from House of Pain, Xzibit and one of the members of Limp Bizkit.

He plans to release his first album next year and has established himself as Pakistan's biggest - and perhaps only - rap star. His rise illustrates a side of Pakistan that is often obscured by the steady stream of news about the Taliban and Al Qaida that comes out of the country.

Many Pakistani cities have thriving subcultures that get little attention in the West. Pakistan has a rich musical tradition, including the performance of Urdu-language love poems called ghazals and mystical Sufi music called Qawwali.

Pakistani rock bands have long been popular, as have songs from Bollywood movies. But hard-core rap like Omar's laced with profanity and sexual innuendo is almost unheard of, and could even be dangerous in a society plagued by militants.

"Violence seems to be totally acceptable in this culture, but sex and bad language in music and art seems to be totally unacceptable," said Omar, a clean-cut looking 20-year-old with short black hair who favors black sunglasses and T-shirts with half-naked women.

Omar, who sings in English, insists he is not a political rapper, but his latest song, Paki Rambo, is about a vigilante who hunts the Taliban. "Ambush your camp, my inglorious crew. Straight bastards, brawny and stronger than you," sang Omar. "Take classes, learn how we got em on wax. Hit the base with a bag full of Taliban scalps."
-----------
"It's the P to the A to the K to the I. Armed to the teeth till the day that I die," sang Omar. "R to the A to the M B O. Paki Rambo in the place." The song is part of the soundtrack for an upcoming Pakistani movie, Gol Chakkar, and the directors helped Omar produce a slick music video that has been released on YouTube.
----------
A young boy walks around with a mink stole around his neck. The market for Omar's music in Pakistan is small, limited mainly to elite Pakistani kids like himself who speak English and live lifestyles closer to their Western counterparts than the country's conservative majority.

Extremists who believe music is a violation of Islamic law have bombed CD shops in some parts of Pakistan. The upmarket crowd was on display at a rare concert Omar held this past weekend at the Marriott hotel in Islamabad.

Well-coiffed women in tight jeans and young hipsters in velour jackets held up iPhones and Blackberries to record the show. "We really enjoy Adil's music because it represents the young generation," said Faizaan Bomassy, a 23-year engineer wearing a white Playboy hoody.

Even among Omar's friends and fans, some were surprised by the swearing and sexual references that flow through his music. "I think it's a little explicit sometimes, but I think it's good music," said Waleed Ali Khan, a 20-year-old student. "I think he is breaking new ground and paving the way for new artists."

Omar was born in London but moved to Islamabad when he was very young. He began writing lyrics at the age of 10 when his father died and his mother was bedridden for several years with a serious illness.
---------
Paki Rambo and Omar's collaborations with American rap stars will appear on the album he plans to release next year, The Mushroom Cloud Effect. About a third of the songs were recorded in Los Angeles, and the rest in Omar's bedroom in his mother's house in Islamabad...........


http://gulfnews.com/arts-entertainment/music/rapper-breaks-new-ground-in-conservative-pakistan-1.921804

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjlYGzVk-6o&feature=related

Majumdar said...

Prof Riaz ul Haq sb,

I have some good news for you. India has been ranked 134 on UNDP HDI index- Medium Development Country. Pakistan has been ranked 145 Low Development Country.

Regars

Majumdar (yr old frnd from chowk)

Riaz Haq said...

Majumdar: "I have some good news for you. India has been ranked 134 on UNDP HDI index- Medium Development Country. Pakistan has been ranked 145 Low Development Country."

Majumdar sahib, nice to hear from you. Hope you are well.

I agree that Pakistan is doing poorly on human development measures by UNDP, and Pakistanis have lot of work to do. But looking at the sub-indices, it doesn't seem quite as bad as it appears from the composite ranking. Here is what Hindustan Times is reporting:

India has been ranked lower than its neighbour Pakistan in the United Nation’s multi-dimensional poverty index (MDI) and gender equality index even though it has been able to maintain its 134 rank in overall Human Development Index (HDI). The MDI evaluates deprivations in education,
health and standard of living and the households with score of more than one-third of the weighted indicators are listed as multi-dimensionally poor.

The UN Development Programme’s HDI report says that 53.7% of Indians suffer from multi-dimensional poverty as compared to 49.4 % in Pakistan and 57.8% in Bangladesh.

Even in absolute poverty terms, measured for those earning less than $1.25 a day, Pakistan fares better than India. Around 41.6% of Indians in 2005 were earning less than $1.25 a day as compared to 22.6% Pakistanis.

When it comes to gender equality, India has been ranked lower than most of its neighbouring countries including Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. It is primarily on account of India’s adolescent fertility rate, lesser number of women in Parliament and poor participation of women in workforce.


http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/NewDelhi/India-ranked-lower-than-Pakistan-for-poverty-and-gender-inequality/Article1-764089.aspx

In addition, Pakistan is doing a bit better in terms of mean years of schooling with 4.9 yrs for Pakistan vs India's 4.4 years.

http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2011_EN_Complete.pdf

Majumdar said...

Prof Riaz ul Haq sb,

I am doing quite fine, sir. And as I can see now, you are going great guns too. Why dont you join us on Desibukbuk where most chowkies have migrated to.

But looking at the sub-indices, it doesn't seem quite as bad as it appears from the composite ranking.

No, no, not at all. I was only pointing out that Pakistan isnt outsripping India as fast as readers on your blog wud think.

53.7% of Indians suffer from multi-dimensional poverty as compared to 49.4 %

I suggest you inspect this info more closely. Pakistan's data is more recent based on 2007 numbers, while India's is a tad older 2005 based. India has been growing reasonably well since 2005 (about 7-8% generally) while Pak has stagnated since 2007 (presumably due to the unfortunate incursion of democracy in 2008). So as on date, I am not sure diff in MPI wud be very different. Hopefully, of course Pak's rightful rulers- the Fauj will be back in saddle and restore the normal superiority that Pakistan has had over India.

Regards

Anonymous said...

@MAzumdar

What is there to be proud off Pakistan being lower than us is to be expected with a certain zardari in charge,a full scale civil war,floods,pitiably low tax collections etc.

My question is why the f*** are we so low given that we are fully solvent with a proper industrial base!Truly pathetic!! we are the unofficial sick man of the G-20!!

Riaz Haq said...

Mazumdar Sahib,

Here's more on India-Pak HDI comp from London's Telegraph:

The report also finds more 'gender equality' in conservative Pakistan than in 'tolerant' India.

Its findings amount to a wake-up call for a nation which has taken great pride in its rapid economic growth and the increasing clout of its billionaire business leaders but has failed to share the spoils with its poor. Britain's Department for Internmational Development has pointed to this chequered progress to justify its continuing aid to India.

The Human Development Report reveals that while India ranks slightly above Pakistan in its level of 'human development' – based on life expectancy, schooling and per capita income – its wider poverty level is worse than Pakistan's.

In absolute terms, 41.6 per cent of India's 1.1 billion people earned less than 78 pence per day compared with 22.6 per cent of Pakistan's 173 million.

The report quotes its 'multi-dimensional poverty index' which includes measures of schooling, child mortality, nutrition, access to electricity, toilets, drinking water, and hygienic living conditions, and reveals India is poorer.

It found 53.7 per cent of Indians suffering from this broader kind of poverty, compared with 49 per cent of Pakistanis.

More surprisingly, India is ranked below Pakistan and Bangladesh on gender equality which reflects maternal death rates, teenage pregnancies, access to education, and the number of women parliamentarians and in the workplace.

India's rural development minister Jairam Ramesh said the report highlighted the prevalence of poverty in the midst of economic growth and the possibility that "actually economic development may lead to retrogression of social indices." Priya Subramanian of Save the Children said India's poor ranking reflected a lack of political will to tackle poverty.

"It is things like healthcare and education which have India lagging behind Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka. These countries are well on track and India, with its fast growing economy, has still not got its act together," she said.

"While we have a new band of millionaires, on the other side people continue to suffer endlessly. Millions still live below the poverty line and go to sleep hungry. The [economic] growth has not flowed towards them," she added.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/8867353/Indian-poverty-levels-higher-than-Pakistans-says-UN-report.html

Anonymous said...

whatever riaz the chickens will come home to roost in 2015 the millenium development goals are measured...you really still believe PAkistan will be ahead of India in 2015 based on current trends and the fact that US is not leaving Afghanistan till 2014....

mehul sagar said...

Riaz, you have misquoted or misrepresented the HDI data.

The mean years of schooling is for adults 25 and over who are literate. That equates to post high school education. The numbers to follow is the Education Index and the Expected Years of Schooling of children under 7 years;

India 0.45 EI and 10.3 years
Pakistan 0.386 and 7

Loss due to Overall Inequality in Pakistan is greater;

0.504 to 0.346 = 0.158 loss Pakistan

0.547 to 0.392 = 0.155
India

Maternal mortality came down from 450 to 230 for India whereas Pakistan came down from 300 to 260!

Since 1980 Pakistan, which was 20% ahead (bangladesh partition dividend) of India in HDI terms, is today approximately 8% behind India!!

Riaz Haq said...

Mehul: "Riaz, you have misquoted or misrepresented the HDI data.The mean years of schooling is for adults 25 and over who are literate."

I think you are mistaken.

Read page 129 of the full human dev report 2011. It says nothing about a particular age group. It simply states mean years of schooling in Pakistan is 4.9 vs 4.4 in India for the population.

http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2011_EN_Complete.pdf

Mehul said...

http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/PAK.html.

Riaz, the above link clearly indicates " adults age 25 and over". You may need to click the heading to get that detail.
Cheers

Suraj said...

You are wrong Mr Haq. I looked at definitions below page 129 as you indicated and it clearly states the age 25.

Riaz Haq said...

Suraj: "I looked at definitions below page 129 as you indicated and it clearly states the age 25."

Yes, it does. But it also cites Barro & Lee as source, and Barro & Lee both have concluded in their 2010 paper that Pakistan's graduation rates at all levels (Prim, Sec & Ter) are higher than India's:

Education Level.......India........Pakistan

Primary (Total)........20.9..........21.8

Primary (Completed)....18.9..........19.3

Secondary(Total)....40.7.....34.6

Secondary(Completed)...0.9.....22.5

College(Total).........5.8......5.5

College(Completed).....3.1.....3.9

http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/08/pakistan-ahead-of-india-in-graduation.html

http://www.barrolee.com/

Suraj said...

Riaz,
Once again you have looked at the data superficially on the Barro-Lee article. I am hoping that was not by choice.

Data are presented in desegregated form and the numbers DO NOT indicate graduation rates as you have indicated. For example, you do not have a graduation rate at the primary or secondary level. One way to analyze the data would be to think of it in percentages. Of the entire population considered functionally literate 21.8%[Pak] and 20.9%[Ind] total have primary schooling. The completion data is exclusive from the total data. Look at the data for India at the secondary completion and total % 0.9 & 40.7 respectively. This indicates that most Indians in this category go on further to high school or college and only 0.9% just complete secondary school.

This methodology is statistical; however, Education Index and the years of schooling is a tool that UN uses to gauge progress in education.

Poonam said...

Riaz,

"..it also cites Barro & Lee as source, and Barro & Lee both have concluded in their 2010 paper that Pakistan's graduation rates at all levels (Prim, Sec & Ter) are higher than India's"

That is your conclusion NOT Barro-Lee's and is also faulty and misconstrued.

The data breakdown is within the country and not across the country:

Education Attainment for Total Population


India Pakistan
------------------------
No school(total) 32.7 38.0
Primary (total) 20.9 21.8
Secondary (total) 40.7 34.6
Tertiary (total) 5.8 5.5
----------------------
Total~ Total~ =100 =100

You have analyzed the data incorrectly. You have made a gross error by looking at the data horizontally! The data are to be analyzed vertically and within the specific country.

Riaz Haq said...

Poonam & Suraj:

Data from Harvard scholars Barro & Lee speaks clearly with no need for arguments or ambiguity unless you are in denial.

It reports percentages of population for each country in 15+ age group at various levels of education in terms of total (enrolled) and completed (graduated).

As to educational attainment in South Asia, it shows that the percentage of population enrolled in sec and ter level is a bit larger in India, but the percentage of population that completed (graduated) each level is higher in Pakistan.

In other words, slightly fewer Pakistanis enroll in secondary and tertiary schools, but more of them graduate than their counterparts in India as percentage of each age group's populations in each country.

Bottom Line: Pakistanis stay in schools longer and graduate more often than Indians of the same age group.

Riaz Haq said...

A big donor is giving $50 million to Stanford to help promote innovation and entrepreneurship for alleviating poverty in the developing world. Here are some excerpts from a Mercury News story:



A Silicon Valley venture capitalist has donated $100 million to Stanford University's Graduate School of Business to establish a new institute to promote entrepreneurship in developing countries and eventually alleviate poverty.



Robert King, along with his wife, Dorothy, also gave a second gift to the entire university, $50 million in matching funds to encourage more donations to Stanford. The couple's gift is the second-largest publicly disclosed single donation to the school, behind a $400 million donation in 2001 by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.



---------------


"The institute will be about sponsoring and creating entrepreneurial activity in developing economies," said Robert King, 76, who founded Peninsula Capital in Menlo Park. "Stanford is in an absolutely leading position to do that."



The Stanford Institute for Innovation in Developing Economies will be devoted to research, education and on-the-ground support to help entrepreneurs innovate and grow their businesses. Students and faculty will travel abroad to help businesses overcome obstacles to growth. The institute also will provide formal courses for entrepreneurs and nonprofit employees overseas.

----------------

The Kings say the inspiration for their philanthropy grew from hosting foreign students while they attended Stanford, a more than four-decade experience that underscored the importance of the link between education and entrepreneurship. It also led to a successful investment by Robert King, who provided seed money for China's giant search engine, Baidu, after he met the company's co-founders, Eric Xu and Robin Li, through one of the couple's home-stay students more than a decade ago.



"If anyone knows the value of encouraging entrepreneurship in the developing world, it's Bob King," Li said in an email statement. "Bob took a big chance on Baidu in our earliest days, investing in a Chinese search engine at a time when China's Internet was still in its infancy. I'm sure that this generous endowment will help create some great business leaders in the developing world."



The institute will build on work Stanford students and faculty already are engaged in through a collaboration of the business school and the university's Hasso Plattner Institute of Design in which products and business models are created for the developing world.



One venture to emerge from this work is d.light, a company creating products for people without access to reliable electricity. The institute will dispatch students and faculty members to work with overseas businesses and NGOs, or nongovernment organizations, identified as having great promise by other organizations.



---------------


"If their research is focused on Guatemala, we will send them there," Lee said.



The university is beginning the process to hire three tenure-track professors to fill research positions in the institute. They will join four current Stanford professors, Saloner said.



The Kings, who are active philanthropists, also founded the Thrive Foundation for Youth, which supports research on youth development and organizations that work with young people.


....................




http://www.mercurynews.com/top-stories/ci_19262908

Poonam said...

Riaz said:

"Bottom Line: Pakistanis stay in schools longer and graduate more often than Indians of the same age group."

"Data from Harvard scholars Barro & Lee speaks clearly with no need for arguments or ambiguity unless you are in denial."

Those are YOUR conclusions. I have digested the same statistics and I definitely do not draw those conclusions. Completion rates are percentages of the total population meaning how many have completed primary ed only or percentage of population that have completed secondary ed only and so on within the country that is if such data are collected.

Please look up the definitions. Check out other countries as well

Riaz Haq said...

Poonam: "Please look up the definitions. Check out other countries as well"

I have downloaded and read the Barro & Lee paper and complete dataset. And I stand by my comments and conclusions that I have shared here.

Poonam said...

Riaz

I am following the discussion taking place on your blog.

You are trying to sell everyone a house of cards here. You claim to have read the entire Barro-Lee dataset yet you denied the existence of 25 year and above definition even after being told so. How could you have drawn dramatic conclusions without knowing the dataset definition.

Second, it appears that you're in denial because you are emotionally and patriotically vested here. It is your blog and you seem to filter out info that you disagree with.

Third, look at completion data of other countries as well. It tends to be all over the place based on the given country's school system and data collection.

Fourth, let us assume that I am still in denial as you have said. Explain to me if only 0.9% complete secondary school then why are 5% of the literate completing tertiary schooling!?

Care to respond or are you the one who is in denial?

Riaz Haq said...

Poonam: "Explain to me if only 0.9% complete secondary school then why are 5% of the literate completing tertiary schooling!?"

The 0.9% represents a narrower age group of high schoolers while 5% represents a much wider age group beyond high-school age who could be in tertiary education...college, vocational, etc.

The rest of your comment does not deserve a response.

Mehul said...

Pakistan has 3.6 times better secondary graduation rate than UK and 7.5 times better primary graduation rate than USA!
(Pakistan primary completion 14.3 & secondary completion 19.0, UK secondary 5.2, USA primary 1.9)

Using Riaz's analysis of the Barro-Lee paper, Pakistan has topped at least two advanced economies and there could be more.

Riaz, am I right?

Riaz Haq said...

Mehul: "Riaz, am I right?"

No, you are not.

With half the population below 20 years and 60 per cent below 30 years, Pakistan has a much younger population than the advanced economies you refer to. It has a lot bigger percentage of its population in the high-school age group than Britain or the United States. So it makes sense that it should have more of its population enrolled and graduating from high schools.

Mehul said...

Riaz:

"With half the population below 20 years and 60 per cent below 30 years, Pakistan has a much younger population than the advanced economies you refer to. It has a lot bigger percentage of its population in the high-school age group than Britain or the United States. So it makes sense that it should have more of its population enrolled and graduating from high schools."

Well, then let's look at the other numbers. UK has primary "graduation" rate of 21.0 and Pakistan has 14.3. According to your analysis of Barro-Lee paper UK is better than Pakistan or UK has a much larger younger population; however, according to you Pakistan has a much higher younger population. Can you explain that?

Moreover, the primary completion rate for USA is 1.9 because USA has a smaller younger population, yet USA and UK are similar demographically! Can you explain that as well?

Riaz, the Barro-Lee paper in this case is about level of education attained or completed of the total population not "graduation" rates.

In my small city in India, I still remember the census (1991) worker asking me "highest level attained" questions for my family.
My mother was 7th pass and my father was matric (matriculation) pass. I don't remember or know of "secondary" pass question ever.

Maybe you need to go back to your analysis.

Mehul said...

Riaz,

I'm also involved in a NGO called "Pratham" which delivers at the grassroots level to increase literacy in India. We take UN data very seriously; however, I was perplexed by your interpretations regarding the Barro-Lee paper which Pratham uses as well.

The secondary attainment or completion rate is never used in India. In fact post independence, the rate has and still is below 1%. We regard it as a fudge number when a person doesn't fit any of the two categories.

Riaz Haq said...

Mehul: "According to your analysis of Barro-Lee paper UK is better than Pakistan or UK has a much larger younger population; however, according to you Pakistan has a much higher younger population. Can you explain that? "

Pakistan has a much larger younger population than UK but more than a third of it is not in school. If it were in school, the percentage for Pakistan would be much higher than UK.

Mehul said...

Riaz says:

"With half the population below 20 years and 60 per cent below 30 years, Pakistan has a much younger population than the advanced economies you refer to. It has a lot bigger percentage of its population in the high-school age group than Britain or the United States"

But Riaz also says:

"Pakistan has a much larger younger population than UK but more than a third of it is not in school. If it were in school, the percentage for Pakistan would be much higher than UK"

Yet Pakistan has 3.6 times better SECONDARY "graduation" rate than UK and 7.5 times better PRIMARY "graduation" rate than USA!
(Pakistan PRIMARY "graduation" 14.3 & SECONDARY "graduation" 18.7, UK SECONDARY = 5.2, USA PRIMARY = 1.9)

Mehul said...

Also, according to your analysis Pakistan has a larger younger population % so secondary "graduation" is 3.6 times that of UK (19.0 & 5.2). However, if Pakistan has a larger younger population % why is secondary "graduation" rate only 0.5 times USA (19.0 & 36.2)?

Riaz Haq said...

Mehul:

I don't understand why it is such a surprise to you that Pakistan with its much younger population than aging western societies should have higher percentage of it attending and completing prim and sec schools.

To me, the only consternation is why is not not even higher than that reported by Barro & Lee...and the answer is Pakistan has lower enrollment rates because of the failure of its public education system to provide access to more of its young people who should be in school.

Mehul said...

Why is Yemen's secondary "graduation" rate of 6.7 and Afghanistan secondary "graduation" rate of 6.4 only marginally higher than UK (5.2) even though both poor nations have near the world's highest young population yet Pakistan's secondary "graduation" rate is 2.8 times higher than Yemen and 3.0 times higher than Afghanistan?

Now here is the opposite question.
Kenya has 80% literacy rate and a demographically much higher % young population than UK. Why does UK (5.2) have a secondary "graduation" rate 8.7 times higher than that of Kenya (0.6)?

Norway has a primary "graduation" rate of 0.5. According to your analysis then, only one Norwegian "graduates" primary school out of 200! In other words primary "graduation" rates of Pakistan (14.3) is 28.6 times that of Norway (0.5)!

Something is inherently amiss in your Barro-Lee paper interpretations and conclusions which, you have blogged numerous times as I have found out.

Mehul said...

Riaz said:

"... and Barro & Lee both have concluded in their 2010 paper that Pakistan's graduation rates at all levels (Prim, Sec & Ter) are higher than India's"

Barro-Lee have NEVER offered that conclusion. No other source, publication or newspaper online or print have made that conclusion beside Mr. Riaz Haq of course.

The "completed" numbers that you call "graduation rates" is wrong.
The completed numbers reflect the percentage of literate population (25 years and above) who has "attained" at least that level of
education.

In my 1991 survey in India:
Father completed "matric pass"
Mother completed "7th pass"
Wife completed "BCom"
Myself completed "PhD"

Corresponding percentage of highest levels attained in my family (no secondary exists):

primary 25%
secondary 0%
tertiary 75%

That is the essence of the Barro-Lee dataset.
(secondary still't exist

Riaz Haq said...

Mehul: "The completed numbers reflect the percentage of literate population (25 years and above) who has "attained" at least that level of
education."

I disagree. All of the data and tables in Barro-Lee clearly state it is based on 15+ years population in each country.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/08/pakistan-ahead-of-india-in-graduation.html

Riaz Haq said...

Mehul: "According to your analysis then, only one Norwegian "graduates" primary school out of 200! "

No, 0.1% represents a percent of the Norwegian population that completes prim education, not percentage of those who enter prim school. With a rapidly aging population, Norway has one of the smallest populations of children in the country.

Mehul said...

Riaz said:
".. 0.1% represents a percent of the Norwegian population that completes prim education, not percentage of those who enter prim school."

So, the 0.9% secondary completion for India versus 22.5 for Pakistan represents 0.9% of the population complete secondary school in India and 22.5% of the population complete in Pakistan!

Or for the UK (21.0), which is somewhat demographically similar to Norway (0.5), an astoundingly 21.0 % of the population complete primary education. I was not aware UK had 21 % of its population that young!!!

Mehul said...

Riaz said:

"0.1% represents a percent of the Norwegian population that completes prim education, not percentage of those who enter prim school."

Then, why do you call it "graduation rate" in your India-Pakistan blogs?

Riaz Haq said...

Mehul: "Then, why do you call it "graduation rate" in your India-Pakistan blogs?"

You can call it completion rate.

Mehul said...

Riaz said:

"You can call it completion rate."

Okay agreed. Let us apply the RIAZ analysis.

Norway has primary "completion rate" of 0.1% of the total population?
(Norway has a very small young population)

or

UK has a primary "completion rate" of 21.0% of the population which is 210 times higher than Norway?
( but UK has a very small young population as well)

or

India has a secondary "completion rate" of 0.9% of the population which is 21 times less than Pakistan?
(but India and Pakistan both have a large young population)

but..

UK has a secondary "completion rate" of 5.2% of the population which is 6 times that of India?
(but India has a larger young population)

Doesn't rate usually implies a ratio of in/out or similar.

Your analysis STILL baffles me.

Riaz Haq said...

Mehul: "UK has a primary "completion rate" of 21.0% of the population which is 210 times higher than Norway?
( but UK has a very small young population as well)"

UK has a significant immigrant population with high birth rates.

Mehul: "India has a secondary "completion rate" of 0.9% of the population which is 21 times less than Pakistan?
(but India and Pakistan both have a large young population)"

India's secondary enrollment rate of 40.7% is higher than Pakistan's secondary enrollment rate of 34.6%. It just shows India has a huge drop out problem....also reflected in fewer mean years of schooling in India.

mehul said...

SIDEBAR
*****************************************************************************
Riaz said:

"UK has a significant immigrant population with high birth rates (compared to Norway)."

REALLY!

According to UN data 2005-2010 per 1000
Norway = 12.0
UK = 12.0

According to CIA fact book, 2009
Norway = 10.99
UK = 10.65

UK may actually have a similar if not smaller birth rate!

Total population of UK is 58 million of which 5.3 million is immigrant
or 9.1%

Total population of Norway is 5 million of which 550k is immigrant or 11%.

**************************************************************************

Riaz your knee jerk response above was without merit.

Again let us try to apply the RIAZ analysis then.

Norway has primary "completion rate" of 0.1% of the total population?
(Norway has a very small young population)

or

UK has a primary "completion rate" of 21.0% of the population which is 210 times higher than Norway?
( but UK has a very small young population as well)

Riaz?

ASHRAFUL said...

MANY PEOPLE IN BANGLA THINK THAT BANGLA AND PAK ARE NOW SAME DUE TO UNHDI REPORT.

mehul said...

Here is the brief Methodology of Barre-Lee paper.

Please pay attention to the word 'attainment' and how that information is collected - survey of people and note you will not find "graduation rate"

-->

We fill in most of missing observations by forward and backward extrapolation of the census/survey observations on attainment. The estimation procedure extrapolates the census/survey observations on attainment by 5-year age groups at five-year intervals fill in missing observations with an appropriate time lag.

We assume that an individual's educational attainment remains unchanged from age 25 to 64 and that mortality is uniform across all individuals, regardless of educational attainment. Hence, for age groups between 25 and 64, we fill the missing attainment data using the attainment of the younger age group from the previous period (forward) as benchmark or the attainment of the older age group from the succeeding period (backward).

Since direct backward or forward extrapolation is not applicable for the two youngest age groups (age 15-19 and 20-24), we use attainment and enrollment data to estimate missing attainment data. We assume that the change in enrollment leads to a proportional change in attainment over time with time lag. Hence, for these age groups, we use estimates for the same age group from the previous (or in the next) period as benchmark and adjust this benchmark figure by the change in enrollment over time or the enrollment adjustment factor.

<--

Riaz Haq said...

Mehul: "Norway has primary "completion rate" of 0.1% of the total population?"

You are misquoting Barro-Lee data. In 2010, the data shows Norway had a total 2.7% and completed 2.7% at primary level...100% grad rate.

Mehul: "UK has a primary "completion rate" of 21.0% of the population which is 210 times higher than Norway?
( but UK has a very small young population as well)"

UK had total 24.1% and completion 18.8% in 2010...78% grad rate, and UK's birthrate is higher than Norway's.

Norway and UK are very different in terms of immigrant demographics....Norway immigrants are mostly from other low birth rate European nations while UK's immigrants are from higher birthrate countries, its former colonies....and it's quite probable that the prim students in UK are older than in Norway, and take longer to finish.

Mayraj said...

"Literacy, as defined in Census operations, is the ability to read and write with understanding in any language. A person who can merely read but cannot write is not classified as literate. Any formal education or minimum educational standard is not necessary to be considered literate. Adopting these definitions, the literacy level of the country as a whole was only 29.45 per cent with male literacy at 39.45 per cent and female literacy at 18.69 per cent. "

http://lawmin.nic.in/ncrwc/finalreport/v2b1-5.htm

Mayraj said...

"China has absorbed an additional 40 crore in its cities since 1980 compared to India's 20 crore. Over the next three decades it is now India's turn to gainfully employ 40 crore people that will flock to its cities. But given the state of Indian cities, such pressure is likely to cause them to implode.
The situation is grim, is there a solution? Well, send the migrant from Jhumri Talayya straight to Tokyo!"

http://daily.bhaskar.com/article/BIZ-FEA-opportunities-for-young-india-in-aeging-japan-1827806.html

Mayraj said...

http://tribune.com.pk/story/293787/curbing-unemployment-new-push-to-find-overseas-jobs-for-pakistans-jobless/

Curbing unemployment: New push to find overseas jobs for Pakistan’s jobless

ISLAMABAD:

In a bid to curb unemployment in the country, the government has decided to give fillip to efforts for export of human resources to Arab states and European countries.

While the administration is busy evolving a policy on human resources, foreign missions are being engaged in the process, whereas the ministry of foreign affairs has been asked to submit its response regarding the issue, an official told The Express Tribune.

Unemployment isn’t just claiming innocent lives, but it is also forcing people to resort to desperate measures (often petty crime) to feed their families.

While the government remains concerned about the growing rate of unemployment in the country, overseas employment agents complain that Pakistani embassies abroad are very “non-cooperative” in the matter.

The human resource development (HRD) ministry will approach countries such as Australia and Canada, the official said, adding that delegations from the ministry have already visited Turkey, Kuwait and China to broaden the employment base.

Riaz Haq said...

South Korea's Posco (PKX, 005490.SE) is looking to invest in steelmaking projects in Africa and Pakistan to capture the growing demand in those parts of the world, an executive told MarketWatch:

Posco Executive Vice President Sung-Kwan Baek told Dow Jones Newswires on the sidelines of a business conference in Bali Friday the company hasn't decided on the location of the planned project in Africa, but he mentioned some possible countries such as Ghana, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe because those countries hold abundant iron ore reserves, the basic steel raw material.

Baek said that the African plant will also serve the Middle Eastern market.

"At the same time we are thinking about Pakistan and India because of their big population," Baek added.

In India, the company has started to build downstream production facilities such as coating lines, cold-rolling mills and silicon-steel lines in the Maharashtra state, he said.

Meanwhile, for the upstream projects, Posco is planning three projects, one of which is expected to come through next year. The projects will be located in Karnataka state with six-million tons of annual production capacity, in Orissa, which will have eight million tons capacity. The other one will be developed with India's state-owned Steel Authority of India Ltd., which will have three million tons in production capacity.

The company's offshore investment is part of the plan to boost its total production capacity to 70 million tons by 2020, with 40 million will be produced by its plants in South Korea.

Posco is currently also developing a plant in Indonesia, which will have a six-million-ton annual capacity and a similar project in Brazil.

"Outside the two countries, we need 20 million tons in production capacity. Our goal is in 2020, we have 30 million tons [in production capacities] in foreign countries," the official said.

He added that the company will try to finance future projects with its own cash, but it doesn't rule out any fundraising activities if necessary.

Baek said that the company will closely watch how the global economy will affect China in determining its offshore investment for next year.

"If China survives, we will still have room to invest in foreign countries," Baek said.

China currently produces half of the global steel supply. Baek said that if China's economy slows down the country will likely boost its steel exports, making competition tougher.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/posco-looks-to-enter-africa-mideast-pakistan-2011-11-19

Riaz Haq said...

KARACHI: The German parliament has ratified the Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) signed by Germany and Pakistan in the year 2009 and has sent it to the European Commission for its final approval, Pakistan’s Ambassador to Germany Shahid Kamal told PPI.

Under the Bilateral Investment Treaty, investors of both the countries will be given protection and there will be more German investment in Pakistan in next 3 to 5 years, Kamal added.

Pakistan’s exports to Germany during 2011 calendar years will be around $1.5 billion, with the balance of trade in favour of Pakistan, as against $700 million in the last year.

Quoting official German statistics, Kamal said the trade between the two countries from January to July 2011, was $800 million, 45 percent more than in 2010.

Germany - the largest economy in Europe - was the fifth largest investor in Pakistan in the years 2009 and 2010.

“We are trying to set up German Pakistan Chambers of Commerce, which will enhance connectivity between the private sectors of both the countries,” Kamal stated.

He spoke of immense prospects to export rice, fruits, and vegetables to Germany, where prices of these items were rising. He said Germany was supporting Pakistan for greater market access to EU member states.

He said under an agreement signed recently, German government will provide economic assistance of $58 million for training in electronics, mechanics to Pakistanis over five years.

Shahid Kamal said another $85 million worth of German economic cooperation was underway in renewable wind and solar energy, which will help overcome load shedding in the country. He also said that 340 PhD Pakistanis were working in German universities. German Consul General in Karachi Dr Tilo Klinner, who was also present during the discussion, said that under German economic cooperation program, people in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh provinces will get Pakistanis will get vocational training under the Public Private Partnership. Dr Klinner said German government will co-host an International Conference on Afghanistan in Bonn on December 5, 2011.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=77558&Cat=3

Riaz Haq said...

British Council Pakistan is organising the Education UK virtual exhibition in Pakistan from 21 November to 30 November 2011.

Pakistan remains an important and rewarding market for the UK but it is equally a challenging environment in which to operate. Virtual exhibitions, as an appropriate remote method of recruitment, have a role in developing a flexible, sustainable approach to service provision that is appropriate to the unique operating context in Pakistan.

With a rapid increase in the number of Internet users and Internet Service Providers, and a large English-speaking population, Pakistani society has seen an unparalleled revolution in communications. Internet access has been available in Pakistan since the mid-1990s. Pakistan is reported as the most connected country in South Asia, with the highest teledensity. Today there are over 20 million frequent internet users in Pakistan.

The core objectives of developing our virtual exhibitions’ offering are to:

To provide an opportunity to showcase UK education to the public and key influencers via an interactive on-line platform
Provide a cost-effective means of outreach in the current economic climate
Offer an alternative to the traditional exhibition format in a market where delivery of a standard exhibition is not viable

Riaz Haq said...

Online News: Half of Pakistan’s population may live in cities by 2030

ISLAMABAD: More than half of Pakistan’s population is estimated to be living in cities by the year 2030. Both natural increase and net migration are major contributory factors to urban growth.

These views were expressed by participants of a seminar on “Business and the Middle Class in Pakistan organized by the Planning Commission of Pakistan which was held here on Wednesday.

The seminar included speakers and discussants from some of the largest companies and businesses in Pakistan, coming together to discuss the importance of the evolving middle class in Pakistan.

The participants said that current urban growth rate was approximately 3.5 per cent as compare to 2 per cent nationally. More rural people are migrating to urban centers for higher-paying jobs. Upward social mobility creating and expanding the middle class.

Given the low median age, Pakistan’s middle class is unusually young as compared to developed economies, meaning that younger population will have the most disposable incomes.The expanding middle class consumers will aim for first world aspirations and greater focus will be on branded retail products. The middle class has been growing in number as well as in importance all over the world, which is why businesses strategize targeting this specific class.

The participants said that the middle class is conceptually defined as the class between the rich and the poor; however its boundaries are usually made arbitrarily. It is also important to note the multi-dimensionality of an adequate definition; a person belonging to the middle class needs to be evaluated not only on a monetary basis, other aspects of quality of life and available opportunities need to be encapsulated to arrive at a well rounded definition.

They said that studies show a positive relationship between the higher share of income for the middle class and economic growth as well as political aspects like democracy. Other studies indicate the emergence of entrepreneurs from the middle class. It is the middle class that was the driver of success in India and China.

They said that the biggest opportunity of the rising middle class, at present and future will be for companies selling mass-consumer goods and services. As incomes rise spending patterns will incorporate discretionary and small luxury items while proportionate expenditure on food, clothing and other necessities tend to shrink.

While the basics may decline as a share of consumption, in absolute terms they will continue to grow. Housing, healthcare and educational expenses are expected to register a greater share of the wallet – this spending will be driven by the strong link between education and higher salaries, as well as growing number of options for both higher and vocational education.


http://www.onlinenews.com.pk/details.php?id=186520

Mayraj said...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2068680/The-United-States-Aging-1-8-Americans-senior-growth-rate-old-skyrockets.html

The United States of Aging: 1 in 8 Americans now ‘senior’ as growth rate of the old skyrockets

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a Dawn report on the airing of the first episode of Sim Sim Humara in Pakistan:

The first episode of the Pakistan Children Television’s programme “Sim Sim Hamara”, an educational and capacity-building TV series for children, will be aired on Dec 10 at national TV.

The TV series will be a high-quality early education resource for a large number of children who lack access to formal education opportunities.

“Sim Sim Hamara” is the Pakistani adaptation of the engaging programme “Sesame Street”, created by Rafi Peer Theatre Workshop in collaboration with Sesame Workshop, New York, and funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).

The theatre group will create a total of 130 episodes of the “Sim Sim Hamra” broadcast on PTV Home.

Seventy-eight of these episodes will be produced in Urdu and 52 in national languages. The first episode will be aired at 5:30pm on Dec 10 and the repeat telecast will be at 9:30am next day. The moving spirit behind the project, Faizan Pirzada told Dawn that “along with language and numeracy skills, this new educational show will promote basic life skills, healthy habits, mutual respect and love for learning. The show’s locally-developed puppet stars include Rani, a six-year old school girl with a keen interest in natural sciences and a love of reading, Munna, a five-year old boy with big dreams and a flair for mathematics and numbers, Baily, a fluffy, hardworking donkey who aspires to be a pop star, Baji, a colourful, spirited woman with a passion for food, family, fun and tradition, and Haseen-o-Jameel, a crocodile who has a wonderful way with words, rhymes and songs.”

Throwing light on the background of the project, one of the heads of the PC TV, Faizan Pirzada said Rafi Peer Theatre Workshop, in collaboration with Sesame Workshop, held a national content seminar and four provincial workshops to gather educational advisers from various fields to provide direction for the educational framework for the Pakistan Children’s Television project.

He said the participants included representatives from both regional and federal government entities, academicians, performing artists, civil society members working with children, representatives from Sesame Workshop, USAID and the federal education secretary.

He said there’s a need to impress upon children and families the fact that learning happens in both formal and non-formal environments. PC television is using authentic examples from the real world, such as observing a family member count change at the grocery store, weighing produce on scales at the vegetable market, reading prayers from the Holy Quran and other holy texts, and measuring ingredients for ‘roti’ as a basis for storylines and materials that promote a lifelong love of learning.


http://www.dawn.com/2011/12/02/educational-tv-serial-for-children-from-dec-10.html

Riaz Haq said...

Here's an Express Tribune story of a Pakistani young man of humble origins helping terror victims after studying Emergency Medicine at Yale:

.Today, Razzak is a renowned emergency medicine expert and the executive director of the Aman Foundation. He started his schooling at a humble primary school in Lyari, completing his secondary education from Nasira School in Depot Lines. Not one to be held back, the hard-working student subsequently attended Adamjee Science College where his impressive grades and unbounded enthusiasm won him a scholarship at the prestigious Aga Khan University Hospital (AKUH), the top private medical institution in the country.
---------
In collaboration with the Edhi Ambulance Service, an arm of the philanthropic Edhi organisation and the largest volunteer ambulance network in the world, he researched and analysed road traffic injuries and emergency cases. Edhi had a mountain of documentation for every call and every case it had handled in the last two decades. The downside? None of it was digitised, so he spent days sifting through it manually.

The experience stayed with him, and the data revealed a disturbing pattern. Gruesome injuries, often suffered by the poorest members of society, were often improperly handled by well-meaning doctors, simply because of a lack of know-how. These mistakes frequently, and literally, led to the loss of life and limb.

Yet, Razzak soon realised that he needed more professional training and specialisation courses before he could progress further. He sat for the US Medical Licensing Exams (MLE) and had observations at the Beth Israel Medical Centre, New York, and the Yale-New Haven Hospital, Connecticut. In 1996, his residency and training programme at Yale University’s School of Medicine started and in 1999, he was given the ‘Best Trainee’ award by the State of Connecticut.

On the personal front, Yale was also important for the doctor since he met his future wife there. Following graduation, the two stayed in the US for a few years, always looking forward to the time when they would return home. “The plan was always to come back,” says Razzak. “That’s why we never bought a house, never completely settled in.”

Before they could come back, Razzak did his PhD in Public Health at the world-renowned Karolinska Institutet in Sweden, where he focused on the use of ambulance data for monitoring road traffic accidents. Finally, in 2005, the studious boy from Kharadar returned to Pakistan as a successful, qualified expert in emergency medicine.

He joined his alma mater, AKUH as a faculty member and went on to successfully found Pakistan’s first emergency medicine service (EMS) training programme at the university. “There were many doctors who were awarded their degrees without ever administering cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) as it wasn’t a requirement,” he reveals.

This changed when his EMS programme became a mandatory rotation that all students had to serve. Subsequently, Razzak went on to build and head a new emergency department. Yet, the battle was just half won. Students in the new department faced a dilemma, similar to the one Razzak had as a student. They were required to go to the United Kingdom to sit for their exam, otherwise they would not be considered qualified.
-----------
Determined to remove, for others, the hurdles that he himself had crossed only after many toils, Razzak collaborated with the College of Physicians and Surgeons Pakistan (CPSP) to organise a curriculum for the specialised field. The first batch for this course was enrolled last year. Now students wanting to specialise in emergency medicine will be able to obtain certification in their chosen field, without having to travel abroad....


http://tribune.com.pk/story/300042/positive-pakistani-call-of-duty/

Riaz Haq said...

Here's an Express Tribune story on the state of higher education in Pakistan:

....“To create a knowledge capital, particularly in an emerging economy, a country has to invest heavily in the education sector,” said Dr Laghari, citing examples of South Korea, Singapore and more recently of Thailand, Malaysia, Turkey and Indonesia, who invested in education and made significant progress. Sadly, he said, Pakistan invests only 0.7% of its Gross Domestic Product in education, “which is too meagre to achieve its future goals”.

Dr Laghari said we need at least 15,000 PhDs in the next decade, which is only possible if more than 1,000 PhDs are produced every year. However, he said within the available budget we are hardly producing 600 PhDs annually.
---------
Dr Laghari said that at least 20 to 30% of the population aged 17 to 23 should have accessibility to the higher education, but in Pakistan only 7.8% have this facility. In the Muslim world, 27% population in the given age group in Indonesia has access to higher education, in Malaysia it’s 30% and in Turkey it is 37%, he added. He cited that Brazil has invested $26 billion on its higher education and is expected to produce 75,000 PhDs in the next ten years.
--------
But despite outlining the issues marring education in Pakistan, Dr Laghari dispelled the impression that the higher education sector is stagnant.

He said that in spite of the financial crunch, HEC has succeeded in improving the quality of education and research. He said that rate of enrolment in higher education is growing by 15 to 20% annually, and published research is increasing 20 to 25% annually.

He said that 10 offices of research innovation have already been set up and another 12 are in the pipeline. Moveover, three centres of advanced studies focusing on water, agriculture and energy are currently being established at different universities, which are priority areas for developing countries like Pakistan, he added.

HEC is focusing on promoting a culture of innovation and entrepreneurship in universities and has defined their roles in building economies, communities and leadership, said Dr Laghari. As a result, he said research output has increased significantly in the last few years and so has as the number of PhD graduates. He said although the commission could not send a single person abroad for PhD last year, this year it managed to send abroad 600 to 700 scholars.

“The biggest challenge for higher education is improving both the quality of education and research, which is only possible if the sector gets appropriate funding,” he maintained. The HEC chief said the commission has gotten some financial respite from the World Bank, which recently loaned it $300 million, in addition to funds from USAID and the British Council.

He said funds allocated to the HEC last year were insufficient, and warned of massive protests by employees across the country if they are not paid their raised salaries.


http://tribune.com.pk/story/312462/laghari-calls-for-heavy-investment-in-higher-education-disapproves-of-commercialisation/

Riaz Haq said...

Here's an Express Tribune story on a new business school in Karachi:

Sitting in the corporate office of the Karachi School for Business and Leadership (KSBL), an upcoming graduate management school being established in the financial capital of Pakistan in collaboration with Judge Business School of the University of Cambridge, Dean Robert Wheeler III spoke at length as to why Karachi needed yet another business school.

“No doubt, IBA and LUMS are outstanding business schools. But the academia isn’t like a corporation, it’s not about winning or losing,” Wheeler told The Express Tribune in an interview. “Pakistan needs more top-level business schools, it needs more leaders.”

Having served at the Pennsylvania State University, University of Texas at Austin and Georgetown University in key positions like assistant dean and director of MBA programmes, Wheeler has been associated with KSBL for the past two years. Spread over three acres, a dedicated campus of KSBL is currently under construction on main Stadium Road in Karachi. The construction phase will be over in July 2012 and the first intake of students will be in September. Initially, KSBL will offer a full-time, 21-month MBA programme in general management only.

“Our emphasis is on ethical leadership. It’s not about being right or wrong. It’s about making difficult choices,” he said, adding that KSBL would make an extra effort to infuse students with social responsibility. “We’ll work with students to help them stay here in Pakistan after they graduate, to make them realise that they owe something to this society.”

The MBA curriculum has been designed in collaboration with Judge Business School. Besides conventional teaching methods involving lectures and case studies, KSBL will use videoconferencing to let its students attend live lectures from American and British universities.

“We’re wiring the entire building for videoconferencing so that CEOs from London, Singapore and the US could show up on videoconferencing,” he said, adding that the campus would benefit from natural light optimisation, as more than 70% of the rooms would have natural lighting.

Wheeler said the core faculty of KSBL would be of Pakistani origin with PhD degrees from foreign universities. “We’ll cut back on the administrative work that faculty is often required to do in Pakistan and encourage them to do applied research that could be used in the industry, government and business.” In many classes, especially those on entrepreneurship, Wheeler said more than one person would co-teach students via videoconferencing to provide them with a combination of academic and professional perspectives.

‘Intrapreneurship’

Referring to corporate entrepreneurship, or intrapreneurship meaning working like an entrepreneur within an organisation, Wheeler said the traditional role of an entrepreneur was changing, as big corporations were now looking for business graduates with entrepreneurial mindset.

As for the admission process at KSBL, he said prospective students would be judged on their GMAT scores, GPAs, essays and interview performance. “We’ll have a holistic approach. We want to produce team players, people who can get along with others. You need to fulfil certain requirements, but high scores only shouldn’t guarantee your admission.”

Rejecting the idea that working with the bureaucracy is particularly difficult in Pakistan, Wheeler said the United States was equally bureaucratic. “We’re right on track. Things are going well. The construction phase will be over in July.”


http://tribune.com.pk/story/315063/pakistan-needs-more-top-level-business-schools/

Riaz Haq said...

Here are some excerpts from a piece by Lan Pritchett of Harvard University on India's poor performance on PISA:

Compared to the economic superstars India is almost unfathomably far behind. The TN/HP average 15 year old is over 200 points behind. If a typical grade gain is 40 points a year Indian eighth graders are at the level of Korea third graders in their mathematics mastery. In fact the average TN/HP child is 40 to 50 points behind the worst students in the economic superstars. Equally worrisome is that the best performers in TN/HP - the top 5 percent who India will need in science and technology to complete globally - were almost 100 points behind the average child in Singapore and 83 points behind the average Korean - and a staggering 250 points behind the best in the best.

As the current superpowers are behind the East Asian economic superstars in learning performance the distance to India is not quite as far, but still the average TN/HP child is right at the level of the worst OECD or American students (only 1.5 or 7.5 points ahead). Indians often deride America's schools but the average child placed in an American school would be among the weakest students. Indians might have believed, with President Obama, that American schools were under threat from India but the best TN/HP students are 24 points behind the average American 15 year old.

Even among other "developing" nations that make up the BRICs India lags - from Russia by almost as much as the USA and only for Brazil, which like the rest of Latin America is infamous for lagging education performance does India even come close - and then not even that close.

To put these results in perspective, in the USA there has been huge and continuous concern that has caused seismic shifts in the discourse about education driven, in part, by the fact that the USA is lagging the economic superstars like Korea. But the average US 15 year old is 59 points behind Koreans. TN/HP students are 41.5 points behind Brazil, and twice as far behind Russia (123.5 points) as the US is Korea, and almost four times further behind Singapore (217.5 vs 59) that the US is behind Korea. Yet so far this disastrous performance has yet to occasion a ripple in the education establishment.
------------
These PISA 2009+ results are the end of the beginning. The debate is over. No one can still deny there is a deep crisis in the ability of the existing education system to produce child learning. India's education system is undermining India's legitimate aspirations to be at the global forefront as a prosperous economy, as a global great power, as an emulated polity, and as a fair and just society. As the beginning ends, the question now is: what is to be done?


http://ajayshahblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/first-pisa-results-for-india-end-of.html

Riaz Haq said...

Here's an uplifting story in Express Tribune about a Pakistani with 28 A's in O Level exams:

Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has presented a cheque of Rs1 million as a token of appreciation to a student from Taxila who had set a world record in the O-level examinations.

Zohaib Asad, a student of Beaconhouse, earned 28 As in the University of Cambridge International O-Level Examinations in 2011. He overtook a record of 23 As, also set by a Pakistani student from Islamabad Ibrahim Shahid.

Gilani invited Asad to the Prime Minister House on Thursday and lauded him for making Pakistan’s youth proud. He said that Asad’s achievement will inspire other young students to excel in life through sheer hard work.

Asad is currently enrolled at McGill University in Montreal, Canada, where he is pursuing an undergraduate degree in economics and international development.

Speaking to the prime minister, he said that he was determined to return to Pakistan after completion of his education to serve the country that has given so much in life at an early age.

Gilani appreciated Asad’s sense of devotion to the country the country and said that young people like him were Pakistan’s hope for a brighter future.

Asad’s family members were also present in the meeting.


http://tribune.com.pk/story/317004/pm-honours-student-who-set-o-level-world-record/

Riaz Haq said...

Here's an excerpt from Malaysia's Bernama news agency report:

..for Pakistan, the education sector is also a priority. Apart from increase in trade during the year, the number of Pakistani students studying in Malaysia increased to over 3,000 students.

"This was due to more linkages established between the universities of both countries," Pakistani High Commissioner to Malaysia Masood Khalid told Bernama.


http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v6/newsindex.php?id=638491

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a story published in Fast Company about an "Education Revolution" in Pakistan:

TED Fellow, social entrepreneur and filmmaker Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy is on a mission to foment Pakistan's education revolution.

The province of Sindh, where Obaid-Chinoy is based, decided less than two months ago to completely revamp public school textbooks, and the government enlisted Obaid-Chinoy to help. "There needs to be an overhaul," Obaid-Chinoy tells Fast Company. "Textbooks are outdated and I've been working with the government on how to encourage critical thinking and move away from rote memorization....It's tough, because the mindset is not there. The teachers are essentially products of the same system. We have to break the culture, which takes a long time."

Sindh's teachers now spend extensive time in professional training with education experts to try and reform the instruction of English, math, and social studies. "We're really making this a movement for education for social change," Obaid-Chinoy says.

"People are excited by it. Everyone's getting into it, rolling up their sleeves. We're trying to bridge the divide between the public and private school systems," which, she says, is at the heart of Pakistan's education challenges. The poorer schools are under-resourced and are often recruiting grounds for young terrorists. By improving the public education system, the less-fortunate children have a better shot at a solid future, away from terrorist groups, and local leaders hope to accomplish improvements by focusing on textbooks and teacher trainings.

"Pakistan also feels it needs to catch up with the rest of the world in terms of education and that was the genesis for the education overhaul," says Obaid-Chinoy. "Terrorism defines us today," but, she says, there was a time when the country was known for its vibrancy and sense of hope.

Obaid-Chinoy is doing her part in other ways to revamp Pakistan's education system. In 2007 she started CitizensArchive.org, the country's first digital archive documenting its oral history with interviews, rare photos, and other online collections. The initiative allows students in schools throughout Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India to better understand Pakistan and its history and Obaid-Chinoy was able to interview several notable figures who have since passed away, such as Deena Mistri, one of the country's first female educators. And students around South Asia are now engaged in learning exchanges with students in Pakistan, to help the countries build bridges.

And throughout her education work, Obaid-Chinoy's medium is often filmmaking. She makes about one film per year and has covered a range of topics from jihadi schools to female victims of acid attacks. Her next film will look at 9/11 through the eyes of different figures, in commemoration of the 10th anniversary this year.

"My mother gave up her dream of becoming a journalist when she got married and I think she always wanted to make sure that her six children pursued their dreams. I have four sisters and all of us work in male-dominated professions in Pakistan." And Obaid-Chinoy now brings that same sense of passion and justice to her work and thanks to her, her country may soon become a bright spot for global-minded education.


http://www.fastcompany.com/1731268/pakistan-education-revolution

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a private-public partnership initiative for education in Sindh, as reported in The Express Tribune:

The Sindh Education Foundation has handed over the management of 1,200 schools across Sindh to entrepreneurs under its private-public partnership programme, Integrated Education Learning Programme (IELP).

The SEF asked entrepreneurs to apply for school adoption by submitting proposals and they received a staggering 9,600 applications. Each proposal was strictly assessed. There should be no other primary school within a one-kilometre radius of the new one or already established school as this would affect enrolment. No other secondary school should exist within a two-kilometre radius. At least 40 children should be enrolled in primary schools and 30 in elementary and secondary classes. The programme requires the student-teacher ratio to be at least 1:4. Teachers should be paid a minimum of Rs5,000 while at least Rs2,500 should be paid to the support staff. Drinking water and clean toilets are other prerequisites for the IELP selection.

Out of the total applications received, 4,500 were initially shortlisted and 1,500 were finally randomly selected, informed Sadaf Junaid Zuberi, the SEF senior manager.

The final contract signing ceremony was held at the SEF headquarters on Monday where the remaining 300 of the 1,500 selected entrepreneurs sealed their school adoption deal in the presence of Senior Minister for Education and Literacy Pir Mazharul Haq.

Prof Anita Ghulam Ali, the SEF managing director, welcomed the guests and school entrepreneurs and called for operators to take up this opportunity with full honesty and commitment. “You can change the future of thousands of children,” she said.

Lauding the efforts of the SEF, the education minister said that it has been promoting lasting public-private partnerships in the education sector. The government plans to open more schools under this agreement and people who adopt them will be strictly monitored.

The programme was launched in 2009 and was designed to give financial and technical support to new and existing private, community and trust-owned schools throughout the province. Three hundred schools were already working successfully. The project directly reaches 450,000 children.

Each entrepreneur will get a 350-rupee subsidy per child from the Sindh government via the SEF. They will be responsible for the school’s management, monitoring, enrolment, building capacity, community and parent mobilisation and student assessment.

As the project is fully funded IELP students do not pay any fees. SEF will provide textbooks and classroom aides and will also work on teacher training.

IELP follows the SEF’s Promoting Private Schooling in Rural Sindh (PPRS) programme. It is different from the PPRS as it involves both primary and secondary schools.

SEF director of programmes, operations and research, Aziz Kabani, said the aim was to “establish public-private partnership to increase access to and improve the quality of educational services to children in marginalised areas of the province”.


http://tribune.com.pk/story/156552/entrepreneurs-adopt-1200-more-schools-in-sindh/

Riaz Haq said...

In a recent speech President Obama exaggerated the competitive threat from India and China. He said,"when global firms were asked a few years back where they planned on building new research and development facilities, nearly 80 per cent said either China or India – because those countries are focused on math and science, and they're focused on training and educating their workforce".

Based on the recent PISA test results, Obama may be right about threat from China. But India? I don't agree.

Here's why:

The average Indian child taking part in PISA2009+ is 40 to 50 points behind the worst students in the economic superstars. Even the best performers in Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh - the top 5 percent who India will need in science and technology to complete globally - were almost 100 points behind the average child in Singapore and 83 points behind the average Korean - and a staggering 250 points behind the best in the best.

The average child in HP & TN is right at the level of the worst OECD or American students (only 1.5 or 7.5 points ahead). Contrary to President Obama's oft-expressed concerns about American students ability to compete with their Indian counterparts, the average 15-year-old Indian placed in an American school would be among the weakest students in the classroom. Even the best TN/HP students are 24 points behind the average American 15 year old.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/12/pisa-timss-confirm-low-quality-of.html

Riaz Haq said...

Here are excerpts of a BBC report on Arfa's death:

Arfa's short life mirrors Pakistan's burgeoning engagement with information technology, an industry which holds out hope for youth embittered by unemployment and a lack of opportunities.

Her father, Col Amjad Karim, says she was particularly concerned to use her skills to help the young, those under-served by IT and those from villages.

"It is generally understood that computers are for very hi-fi people or rich schools but nowadays one can be purchased for a few thousand rupees by the poorest of poorest," he told the BBC.

"Arfa's centre of gravity was wanting to improve human resource development by focusing on education."

Col Karim retired from the army to be his daughter's manager. He says her mother and two younger brothers are in shock after her death.

Arfa had been in intensive care in a Lahore hospital since late December.

Senior politicians joined relatives at her funeral in the city on Sunday - she has already had a technology park named after her in Lahore.

Her loss is also being felt by Pakistan's IT world.

Shoaib Malik, country manager for games company Mindstorm, said: "It's really sad. What was amazing about her was that she had a clear vision, she literally wanted to set up the industry.

"One thinks only kids who have studied from abroad would have a vision but it was remarkable. I think whatever God does, does for the better but had she been alive she could have played an important role in the IT industry."

Mindstorm is one of a number of small Pakistani start-ups tapping into the global IT boom - a side to the country often overlooked amid bombings, natural disasters and never-ending political crisis.

The company, set up by self-taught techies, developed a game which ended being selected as the ICC World Cup 2011 official game, Cricket Power.
Internet effect

According to Pakistan Software Houses Association president Jehan Ara, Arfa was "intelligent beyond her years".

"In addition to achieving a professional certification at the tender age of nine, it is also notable that she set up and ran a computer training institute for a poor community.

"Her passion for technology, coupled with her vision to use her talent to do something significant for Pakistan and its people, was truly amazing for someone so young."

Ms Ara feels the IT industry offers a way out of unemployment for young Pakistanis, many of whom she says are starting their own companies. One Karachi firm is even developing software for the stock exchange in the UK.
----------
Around 1996 - the year when Arfa was born - the IT industry really took off in Pakistan, according to Shakir Hussain, CEO of software company Creative Chaos.

As the millennium approached, the fear of a mass technical apocalypse also motivated people to pay more attention to IT ventures.

"Suddenly there were hiring and migration opportunities for software engineers," he recalls.

But techies in Pakistan had been putting their creative minds to work even earlier than that, with far-reaching and destructive results.

In 1986, two brothers from Lahore created the world's first computer virus, "Brain".

They insist the virus was friendly and not intended to damage information, but it still ricocheted through the tech world and was developed by others, spawning viruses used to exploit operating systems.

That, however, is not what Pakistan's IT industry wants to be known for.

Shakir Hussain thinks it offers bright young people a good chance to earn a few thousand dollars working from home through various websites.

"The internet has been a great leveller," he says.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16599781

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a story of China's recent decline in workforce:

Due to an ageing population and a decline in the fertility rate, China's labor force in 2011 registered the first decline in its numbers in 10 years, with its population aged between 15 and 64 accounting for 74.4% of the total, a slight drop of 0.1 percentage point, according to data released by the country's National Bureau of Statistics.

The figures send out a warning signal since the supply of labor in China can impact economic growth momentum, the Shanghai-based Oriental Morning Post reports.

According to the data released on the bureau's website, China's labor population experienced its first fall since 2002, while the proportion of urban population surpassed 50% for the first time last year, following rapid urbanization caused by a rise in living standards and the launch of a large number of public construction projects.

The data showed that urban population had reached 51.27% of the total in 2011, up 1.32 percentage points from the previous year. Urban population increased 21 million to 609.08 million, while the rural population was reduced by 14.56 million to 656.56 million.

Li Shi, a professor at Beijing Normal University, said many are concerned that China will lose its "demographic dividend" in the labor force, though it is uncertain how many years it may take for such a complete loss of advantage to occur.

The key for China to maintain its labor force advantage hinges on changes within its existing systems, such as retirement age, Li said. He added that if the country's retirement age could be extended, China could hold its labor force advantage for a longer time.

Li further said that many statistics do not accurately reflect the country's real situation. For instance, the number of migrant workers who registered their households in rural areas was not available.

Echoing Li's view, Ren Yuan, a professor at Fudan University's School of Social Development and Public Policy in Shanghai, also said the level of urbanization was overestimated because a large number of migrant workers in cities were included in the statistics of urban residents. He described the situation as being not fully urbanized.

Since urbanization was a necessary consequence of economic development, the biggest concern is whether the supply of labor can meet the needs of economic development.


http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20120121000005&cid=1202

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a Toronto Star story of a Pakistani and Chinese Canadian kids space flight using a lego man with a balloon:

Two Canadian teenagers have sent a Lego man into space using a home-stitched parachute and spare parts found on Craigslist.

Mathew Ho and Asad Muhammad, both 17, attached the two-inch astronaut clutching a Canadian flag to a helium weather balloon, which they sent 80,000 feet into the air - three times the height of a commercial jet's cruising altitude.

The pair managed to capture the entire 97 minute journey which began on a football pitch in Toronto using four cameras set to take photos every 20 seconds, reports the Toronto Star.

They were left with astonishing footage from an estimated 24 kilometres above sea level which showed the toy floating above the curvature of our planet before beginning a 32 minute descent back to earth.

The personal project cost the boys $400 and took four months of free Saturdays, reports the Star.

Having attached a GPS receiver to the styrofoam box carrying the cameras and Lego man, the teens were able to recover their Lego man which landed 122km from the launch site.

When the teens got home and uploaded the two videos and 1,500 photos onto a computer, they told the Star that they started screaming with joy.

Their footage shows the Lego man spinning at an altitude three times higher than the peak of Mount Everest, before the balloon bursts and he starts to plummet.

“We never knew it would be this good,” Ho told the Star.

According to the report, the two students met in middle school after Muhammad's family had just emigrated from Pakistan.

Muhammad, who spoke no English, was soon befriended by Ho and they began working on the project at Ho's house last September.

"People would walk into the house and see us building this fantastical thing with a parachute from scratch, and they would be like, 'What are you doing?', We'd be like, 'We're sending cameras to space.' They'd be like, 'Oh, okayyyyy …' Ho told the Star.

Astrophysics professor Dr Michael Reid, from the University of Toronto, praised the boys' work, telling the Star: "It shows a tremendous degree of resourcefulness. For two 17-year-olds to accomplish this on their own is pretty impressive."


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2092501/Lego-astronaut-makes-debut-space-help-Mathew-Ho-Asad-Muhammad.html#ixzz1kpIl8PF4

Riaz Haq said...

Here's an Express Tribune report on 2012-2013 Fulbright scholar program in Pakistan:

Amid strained ties and mutual mistrust, the United States Educational Foundation in Pakistan has announced the world’s largest Fulbright programme in Pakistan for the 2013.

The US government’s flagship scholarship programme awards deserving Pakistani students full scholarships that cover tuition, textbooks, airfare, a stipend, and health insurance to complete their Master’s or PhD degrees in a field of their choice in universities across the US. Currently, approximately 369 students are studying in the US on Fulbright awards and another 200 will be departing in the fall of 2012.

According to Ambassador Richard Hoagland, deputy chief of mission, Pakistan’s Fulbright programme is also one of the oldest in the world. “Our agreement initiating the programme was signed on September 23, 1950 – and the first Pakistanis and Americans travelled each way in the same year. It was one of the very first agreements of its kind and has since been extended to 155 countries around the world.”

Since then, nearly 4,000 Pakistanis and over 800 Americans have participated in USEFP-administered exchange programmes.

The deadline to apply for the 2013 programme is May 16, 2012, and the application form can be downloaded from the USEFP’s website www.usefpakistan.org.


http://tribune.com.pk/story/334528/fulbright-scholarships-us-launches-worlds-largest-programme-in-pakistan/