tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post7517792951521017384..comments2024-03-18T16:01:13.871-07:00Comments on Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Expected Demographic DividendRiaz Haqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comBlogger148125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-78450990554110249922023-03-16T16:49:33.623-07:002023-03-16T16:49:33.623-07:00Digital census process continues smoothly: PBS
ht...Digital census process continues smoothly: PBS<br /><br />https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2023/03/16/digital-census-process-continues-smoothly-pbs/<br /><br /><br />ISLAMABAD: The process of the 7th Population and Housing Census, being conducting digitally for the first time in the country’s history, has been going on smoothly all across the country, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported here on Thursday.<br /><br />“The overall progress and speed of the census process is very encouraging and satisfactory,” PBS said in a press statement issued here.<br /><br />The process includes an option for self-enumeration, which was made available from February 20, 2023, till March 10, 2023, and field operations of house listing and enumeration commenced from March 01, 2023, that will continue till April 4, 2023.<br /><br />Conducting a census digitally ensures transparency, data-driven procedures, real-time monitoring of progress through geo-tagging using GIS systems, and wider acceptability of census results, said PBS press statement.<br /><br />It said structures were listed from March 1st to March 10, 2023, during which all the residential and economic units were geotagged along with the classification of economic activities as per international standards.<br /><br />It said, the self-enumeration portal was very well received by people who have enumerated themselves using the portal launched and this method was optional.<br /><br />Currently, the final phase of the census i.e. enumeration is ongoing starting from March 12, 2023, and would continue till April 4, 2023. In this phase, the data about household members and their demographic characteristics, various Socio-Economic Indicators, as well as Housing characteristics, are being collected.<br /><br />PBS technical team is analyzing and assessing the data and trends on a day-to-day basis to ensure the quality of the data and progress in identified 291 blocks all over Pakistan. Physical verification and digital monitoring are being used for quality assurance.<br /><br />PBS has established 495 Census Support Centers (CSC) at the Census District level and 495 Census Support Centers (CSC) at the tehsil level where over 1,095 IT experts of NADRA and PBS team are available 24/7 for technical assistance and facilitation of field staff.<br /><br />The control room has been established at the CSC level which facilitates census field staff during field operation and for this purpose, NADRA technical teams are available to redress all IT-related issues.<br /><br />A call center is operating 24/7 for facilitation, assistance and suggestions through the toll-free number 0800-57574.<br /><br />It said, certain quarters were spreading false and misinformation, adding information shared on the PBS website and official social media should be believed and considered.<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-60046189723739031252022-10-03T20:50:14.800-07:002022-10-03T20:50:14.800-07:00From #Singapore to #Thailand, #Asia courts talent ...From #Singapore to #Thailand, #Asia courts talent for post-#COVID #economic boost. Battle for high-skill workers is not just an #Asian phenomenon, but a global one. #UK has launched a new system called High Potential Individual visa for university grads.<br /><br />https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia-Insight/From-Singapore-to-Thailand-Asia-courts-talent-for-post-COVID-boost<br /><br />TOKYO/SINGAPORE/BANGKOK -- During the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Singapore tightly closed its borders. While many countries did the same, it was a sharp shock to the system for a city-state that had thrived as a hub for travel and as a magnet for foreign workers.<br /><br />As some foreign nationals left, and entries were largely halted, Singapore's population dropped by 4.1% over the year through June 2021, to 5.45 million.<br /><br />The latest data released on Sept. 27, however, shows nearly as swift a turnaround, thanks to a gradual lifting of restrictions. The population rebounded by 3.4% to 5.63 million, largely driven by workers in sectors like construction and shipyards -- the unsung labor that keeps the economy going.<br /><br />Now, Singapore hopes to attract more highly skilled professionals with expertise and ideas that could jolt growth in the post-COVID era. "This is an age where talent makes all the difference to a nation's success," Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in his annual National Day Rally speech on Aug. 21, days before his government announced a new type of visa designed to lure such people. "We need to focus on attracting and retaining top talent, in the same way we focus on attracting and retaining investments."<br /><br />The city-state is far from the only place that covets high-flyers. From Thailand to Taiwan, a competition is heating up to entice the best of the best, and to fill hiring gaps with people equipped to excel in today's pandemic-altered workplace.<br /><br />Innovative sectors like digital technology and biotechnology are especially hungry for talent.<br /><br />Singapore's latest carrot is called the Overseas Networks and Expertise (ONE) Pass, a new visa for high-skill professionals who earn at least 30,000 Singapore dollars ($20,800) a month. The program will allow people with these visas to stay at least five years and work at multiple organizations.<br /><br />Thailand, meanwhile, began taking applications on Sept. 1 for a new visa that lets global professionals stay in the country for 10 years. The government hopes to bring in 1 million foreign nationals with the Long-Term Resident (LTR) visa, designed for those with skills in targeted sectors such as electric vehicles, biotechnology and defense.<br /><br />Tourism-oriented Thailand, like Singapore, has been hit hard by travel disruptions. Both also have aging populations. While Singapore is expecting growth in the 3% to 4% range this year, the Asian Development Bank's latest outlook forecasts Thailand's growth rate at 2.9%, far below Indonesia's expected growth of 5.4%, Malaysia's 6% and Vietnam's 6.5%.<br /><br />Malaysia, for its part, aims to attract wealthy investors with its new Premium Visa Program. The program, which began accepting applications on Saturday, allows people who can deposit 1 million ringgit (about $215,000) in the country and have an annual offshore income of around $100,000 to stay for up to 20 years. During that time, they can invest, run businesses and work.<br /><br />As part of a broader move to bring in more human resources, Australia recently raised its annual permanent immigration cap to 195,000 for the current fiscal year, from 160,000.<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-48774790629635721872022-08-12T07:16:39.621-07:002022-08-12T07:16:39.621-07:00World #Population Is About to Hit 8 Billion—Some A...World #Population Is About to Hit 8 Billion—Some Argue It Is Near Its Peak. Demographers’ forecasts vary and are based on assumptions such as how well-educated and healthy people will be, especially #women. #Africa #heath #education #development #fertility https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-population-is-about-to-hit-8-billionand-some-argue-it-is-near-its-peak-11660252977<br /><br />But as we cross eight billion people, it is worth considering that the world might never make it to 10 billion, or even nine billion, and that the world’s major demographic problems won’t stem from the growing masses but from shrinking countries, aging populations and dwindling workforces.<br /><br />-------<br /><br />Later this year—any day now really—the global population is projected to cross eight billion people. The United Nations recently pegged the date as Nov. 15, but we don’t know with any exact precision.<br /><br />Since the 1960s, when the global number of people first hit three billion, it has taken a bit over a decade to cross each new billion-person milestone, and so it might seem natural to assume that nine billion humans and then 10 billion are, inexorably, just around the corner. That is exactly what the latest population projections from the U.N. and the U.S. Census Bureau have calculated.<br /><br />But as we cross eight billion people, it is worth considering that the world might never make it to 10 billion, or even nine billion, and that the world’s major demographic problems won’t stem from the growing masses but from shrinking countries, aging populations and dwindling workforces.<br /><br />We aren’t talking about meteor strikes, alien invasions or apocalyptic scenarios (though, of course, that could do it, too) but rather straightforward demographic projections that conclude that birthrates have been falling so rapidly around the world that we could potentially reach the peak of human population in less than a generation.<br /><br />The U.N.’s projections are the best known. But an alternate set of projections has been gaining attention in recent years, spearheaded by the demographer Wolfgang Lutz, under the auspices of the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital at the University of Vienna, of which Mr. Lutz is founding director.<br /><br />These forecasts project the population peak is closer and lower. A look at the assumptions behind the forecasts shows they are hardly implausible.<br /><br />“There’s two big questions,” Mr. Lutz explains, that determine whether his forecasts or the U.N.’s end up closer to the mark. “First, how rapidly fertility will decline in Africa…. The other question is China, and countries with very low fertility, if they will recover and how fast they will recover.”<br /><br />The U.N. projects population using historical trends for each country, and calculating how other countries in similar conditions fared in the past.<br /><br />Lyman Stone, the director of research for the population consulting firm Demographic Intelligence, compares this methodology to technical analysis in stocks, a method of looking for historical patterns and predicting if they are likely to recur.<br /><br />The Wittgenstein forecasts, by contrast, look not only at historical patterns, but attempt to ask why birthrates rise and fall. A big factor, not formally included in the U.N.’s models, is education levels. Put simply: As people, especially women, have greater opportunities to pursue education, they have smaller families. (U.N. demographer Vladimíra Kantorová said the U.N.’s approach implicitly accounts for development, urbanization, women’s education and contraceptive use since it relies on historical data from countries that underwent similar transitions.)<br /><br />---------<br /><br /><br />The U.N. projects Africa’s population will grow from 1.3 billion today to 3.9 billion by century’s end.<br /><br />Once education is accounted for, Wittgenstein’s baseline scenario projects Africa’s population will rise to 2.9 billion during that time period. In another scenario from Wittgenstein, which it calls the “rapid development” scenario, the population of Africa will only reach 1.7 billion by century’s end.<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-82775095066571414112021-07-13T07:43:19.722-07:002021-07-13T07:43:19.722-07:00UP's fertility rate nearly halved from 4.82 in...UP's fertility rate nearly halved from 4.82 in 1993 to 2.7 in 2016 - and it's expected to touch 2.1 by 2025, according to a government projection.<br /><br /><br />https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57801764<br /><br /><br />Given the falling rates, "incentivising sterilisation is counterproductive", Ms Muttreja added, because "70% of India's increase in population is going to come from young people. So, what we need is non-permanent, spacing methods".<br /><br />Fertility rates have dipped below replacement levels - 2.1 births per woman - in 19 out of India's 22 states and federally administered territories for which data has been released in the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS). Data from the remaining nine states, including UP, is not ready yet.<br /><br />----------<br /><br />Increased awareness, government programmes, urbanisation, upward mobility and greater use of modern methods of contraception have all contributed to this.<br /><br />Nearly half of the world's countries have seen an extraordinary decline in fertility rates. By 2070, the global fertility rate is expected to drop below replacement levels, according to the UN.<br /><br />China's fertility rate had dropped to 1.3 in 2020, while India's was 2.2 at the last official count in 2016.<br /><br />Will the world's 'first male birth control shot' work?<br />Why do Indian women go to sterilisation camps?<br />So, why implement this rule now?<br />One reason, according to demographers, is the differing rates across India.<br /><br />Six states - Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh - that are home to roughly 40% of India's population also have fertility rates higher than the replacement level, 2.1. This is in sharp contrast with Kerala (1.8), Karnataka (1.7), Andhra Pradesh (1.7) or Goa (1.3).<br /><br />"Also, our cities are overcrowded and ill-planned. They convey an image of over-population," Dr KS James, director of International Institute of Population Sciences, said.<br /><br />Political analysts also believe UP's chief minister, Yogi Adityanath, has an eye on state elections slated for next year. And, with such a drastic move, he hopes to signal a development agenda that is removed from his controversial image as a divisive right-wing Hindu nationalist.<br /><br />This is not a new idea either. In 2018, more than 125 MPs wrote to the president asking for the implementation of a two-child norm. The same year the Supreme Court dismissed several petitions seeking population control measures as it could lead to a "civil war-like situation". In the last year, three MPs from Mr Adityanath's governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) introduced bills in parliament to control population.<br /><br />Since the early 1990s, 12 states have introduced some version of the two child-policy.<br /><br />Did it work?<br />It's hard to say because different states implemented different versions of it - some left loopholes and others introduced financial incentives alongside the punitive measures.<br /><br />There has been no independent evaluation either but a study in five of the states showed a rise in unsafe and sex-selective abortions, and men divorcing their wives or giving up their children for adoption so they could contest polls.<br /><br />But the results are mixed - four states revoked the law; Bihar started in 2007 but still has the country's highest fertility rate (3.4); and Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have all seen a remarkable drop in fertility rates with no such norms in place.<br /><br />"India is at a perfect stage as far as population distribution is concerned," Niranjan Saggurti, director of the Population Council's office in India said.<br /><br />Experts say India has entered a demographic dividend - the ability of a young and active workforce to catapult economies out of poverty. How India can harness this, especially in populous states like Uttar Pradesh, remains to be seen.<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-5597706494608871122021-07-04T19:58:40.309-07:002021-07-04T19:58:40.309-07:00Govt set to launch Kamyab Pakistan Programme this ...Govt set to launch Kamyab Pakistan Programme this month<br /><br />https://www.dawn.com/news/1633071<br /><br />Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin said: “We have finalised every aspect of this programme, and it would be launched in mid-July.” — PID/File<br />• 4m households to be supported<br />• Minister says around Rs400bn worth of interest-free loans to be offered<br /><br />ISLAMABAD: The government has decided in principle to launch ‘Kamyab Pakistan Programme’ this month under which four million households would be assisted in various schemes.<br /><br />The programme appears to be one of the major initiatives taken by the government for the poor segment of society ahead of next elections.<br /><br />Talking to Dawn on Saturday, Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin said: “We have finalised every aspect of this programme, and it would be launched in mid-July.”<br /><br /><br />Detailing some of the features of the programme, he said it aimed at providing support to people in housing projects, skill development, health cards and interest-free loans for businesses and agri-services.<br /><br />However, he made it clear that the targets would be achieved over a period of time and not in one year.<br /><br />The minister said approximately Rs300 billion to Rs400bn interest-free loans would be given in the current fiscal year 2021-22, adding that the amount had also been budgeted to provide subsidy against interest-free loans.<br /><br />The minister said ‘Kamyab Jawan’ would be a part of this programme.<br /><br />About broadening of tax base, Mr Tarin said a strategy was being devised to bring 7.2 million people under the tax net. The strategy will be finalised soon, however, no taxpayer would be harassed, he added.<br /><br />He said the point of sales programme would be extended to maximum traders in the current fiscal year.<br /><br />Meanwhile, at a meeting of the Economic Advisory Council (EAC), Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin stressed the importance of long-term planning to achieve sustainable and all-inclusive economic growth.<br /><br />He said Prime Minister Imran Khan had reconstituted the EAC after decades with an objective to draw up concrete proposals for sustainable economic growth through comprehensive and seamless planning and by taking all stakeholders on board.<br /><br />During the third meeting of the EAC, four sub-groups gave their presentations on State-Owned Enterprises and Privatisation, Energy, Domestic Commerce and Price Stability.<br /><br />Special Assistant on Finance and Revenue Dr Waqar Masood Khan gave a detailed presentation on price stability which included short-term, medium-term and long-term proposals to bring price stability in the country.<br /><br />He drew a comparative analysis between prices prevailing in Pakistan and those in the entire region – both in current and historical perspectives.<br /><br />Zaid Bashir, in his presentation on ‘Domestic Commerce Sector’, underlined the need to enrich and revive documented/integrated sectors and fully realise the true potential of e-commerce during the short term by bringing retailers into a more organised environment, ultimately benefitting the national exchequer.<br /><br />Tax credit on enlistment of companies and to incentivise the induction of women in workforce were suggested as part of medium-term plans whereas financing facility for growth of the retailers and tax adjustability were suggested as part of a long-term strategy to promote domestic commerce sector.<br /><br />In his presentation on energy (power) sector, Farooq Rehmatullah highlighted global, regional and local trends in the refining sectors.<br /><br />The presentation also included recommendations for bringing in sustainable solutions to streamline operations from oil downstream to marketing sectors.<br /><br />Mr Rehmatullah gave suggestions to deal with challenges faced by the LPG, exploration and production sectors and to explore renewable energy resources in Pakistan.<br /><br />Sultan Ali Allana, meanwhile, spoke on ‘State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)’ while the privatisation secretary, Hassan Nasir Jamy, updated the EAC on privatisation.<br /><br /><br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-2014548599148989462021-06-26T16:56:59.031-07:002021-06-26T16:56:59.031-07:00In 1962, a landmark legislation laid the foundatio...In 1962, a landmark legislation laid the foundation of vocational training in Pakistan. The Apprenticeship Ordinance, 1962 was promulgated by the government of Gen Ayub Khan to feed the growing industries with skilled technicians and process operators.<br /><br />https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/854127-vocational-training<br /><br /><br />This was followed by the Apprenticeship Rules in 1966, which quite comprehensively provided modalities of the training scheme, obligations of both the employers and apprentices and the latter’s terms and conditions of apprenticeship.<br /><br />The Ordinance of 1962, has been made applicable to undertakings employing fifty or more persons, as are notified by the provincial government in the official gazette. The notified undertaking is obliged to introduce and operate an apprenticeship programme and get it registered with the Competent Authority defined in the Ordinance.<br /><br />Such undertaking is required to train apprentices in the proportion of a minimum of twenty percent of the total number of persons employed in the ‘apprenticeable trade’. For instance, if an undertaking employs five electricians, it should have at least one apprentice in this trade. There are more than three hundred vocational professions to choose from, encompassing different areas.<br /><br />The induction of the Ordinance met with immense success and all the notified undertakings established their apprenticeship centers in accordance with the law. The most notable among them was the remarkable apprenticeship training center established by the American corporate giant Exxon Chemical Pakistan Limited at its fertilizer plant in Daharki (Sindh).<br /><br />In the late 1960s, the Exxon corporation was attracted to install a plant in Pakistan looking at its rapid pace of industrial development. The company not only imparted training to apprentices in mechanical and chemical trades for two to three years duration but also devised a competitive scheme for their career development in the post apprenticeship employment of the company. Exxon’s successor company Engro Fertilizer Limited continues to follow the scheme.<br /><br />The federal government has promulgated the Apprenticeship Act, 2018 by repealing the Ordinance of 1962, which has become outdated. However, due to the 18th Amendment, provisions of the act of 2018 extend only to the Islamabad Capital Territory. The provinces should make and enforce their own apprenticeship acts, to revive the effectiveness of a most beneficial training scheme.<br /><br />In order to supplement the apprenticeship scheme and boost vocational training in the country, the government promulgated the National Training Ordinance, 1980, which was amended through the Amendment Ordinance, 2002. The purpose of the ordinance was to constitute training boards in the respective provinces to regulate and promote vocational training facilities in various fields. By virtue of this ordinance, the scope of vocational training has widened beyond the confines of notified undertakings. While the apprenticeship training extends only to the apprentices enrolled with some undertaking, any person whether or not he/she is employed, can join the vocational training institutes established all over Pakistan, to learn the desired skill.<br /><br />The National Board has 17 different functions relating to promotion of technical, vocational and in-plant training and skill development etc. The provincial boards have nine functions, which include: (a) registration and licensing of establishments, organizations or institutions, which are offering vocational training; and (b) conducting trade tests and certifying the skilled persons and trainers, who may have received vocational training through any source or acquired the skill through experience or informal system of Ustad-Shagird.<br /><br />Most of Pakistan’s blue-collar workers learn their work informally and have little to no formal academic education. However, raw potential is not a substitute for proper industrial skills-based training.<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-74997800882205620702021-05-18T21:29:00.142-07:002021-05-18T21:29:00.142-07:00#America's population is aging. We need learn ...#America's population is aging. We need learn to live with low fertility. #US is going to be living for a long time with slow population growth & low #GDP growth. And we need to start thinking about #economic policy with that reality in mind. #demographics https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/17/opinion/low-population-growth-economy-inflation.html?smid=tw-share<br /><br />Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported much higher inflation than almost anyone predicted, and inflationistas — people who always predict runaway price rises, and have always been wrong — seized on the news as proof that this time the wolf is real.<br /><br />Financial markets, however, took it in stride. Stocks fell on the report, but they soon made up most of the losses.<br /><br />Bond yields rose only slightly on the news, then ended the week right where they started — namely, extremely low.<br /><br />Why so little reaction to the inflation news? Part of the answer, presumably, was that once investors had time to digest the details they realized that there was little sign of a rise in underlying inflation; this was a blip reflecting what were probably one-time rises in the prices of used cars and hotel rooms.<br /><br />Beyond that, however, is what I think is the realization that while we’re achieving dramatic, almost miraculous success in defeating Covid-19, once the pandemic subsides we’re likely to be in an environment of sustained low interest rates as a result of weak investment demand. And the biggest reason for that low-rate environment is plunging fertility, which implies slow or even negative growth in the number of Americans in their prime working years.<br /><br />This isn’t a new issue. Last month’s census report showing the lowest U.S. population growth since the 1930s only confirmed what everyone studying the subject already knew. And America is relatively late to this party. Japan’s working-age population has been declining since the mid-1990s. The euro area has been on the downslope since 2009. Even China is starting to look like Japan, a legacy of its one-child policy.<br /><br /><br />Is stagnant or declining population a big economic problem? It doesn’t have to be. In fact, in a world of limited resources and major environmental problems there’s something to be said for a reduction in population pressure. But we need to think about policy differently in a flat-population economy than we did in the days when maturing baby boomers were rapidly swelling the potential work force.<br /><br />OK, let me admit that there is one real issue: An aging population means fewer active workers per retiree, which raises some fiscal issues. But this problem is often exaggerated. Remember all the panic about how Social Security couldn’t survive the burden of retiring boomers? Well, many boomers have already retired; by 2025 most of the growth in the number of beneficiaries per worker caused by retiring baby boomers will already have occurred. Yet there’s no crisis.<br /><br />There is, however, a different issue with low population growth. To maintain full employment, a market economy must persuade businesses to invest all the money households want to save. Yet a lot of investment demand is driven by population growth, as new families need newly built houses, new workers require the construction of new office buildings and factories, and so on.<br /><br /><br />So low population growth can cause persistent spending weakness, a phenomenon diagnosed in 1938 by the economist Alvin Hansen, who awkwardly dubbed it “secular stagnation.” The term and concept have been revived recently by Larry Summers, and on this issue I think he’s right.<br /><br />Secular stagnation can be a problem, because if interest rates are very low even in good times there’s not much room for the Fed to cut rates during recessions. But a low-interest-rate world can also offer major policy opportunities — if we’re willing to think clearly.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-66719787742457774922021-05-11T10:21:26.768-07:002021-05-11T10:21:26.768-07:00Falling Populations May Keep Poor Countries From G...Falling Populations May Keep Poor Countries From Getting Rich - Bloomberg<br /><br />https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-26/falling-populations-may-keep-poor-countries-from-getting-rich<br /><br />New population estimates suggest the window for many big developing nations may be closing faster than they realized.<br /><br />The United Nations currently predicts that by 2027, India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country. Estimates suggest India and Nigeria will together add 470 million people in the next three decades — almost a quarter of the world’s population increase to 2050. According to a new study from the University of Washington, however, several developing nations may find their so-called demographic dividend much less of a boon than anticipated.<br /><br />Published in the Lancet, the UW study has improved on the UN’s model by modelling fertility differently and making its decline more sensitive to the availability of contraception and the spread of education. In many parts of India, for instance, the total fertility rate — the expected average number of children born to each woman — is already well below the replacement rate of 2.1 and dropping faster than expected. The study, which also tries to account for the feedback loops between education, mortality and migration, concludes that populations around the world are going to start shrinking sooner and faster than projected.<br /><br />South Asia, for example, would have 600 million fewer people in 2100 than previously predicted thanks to lower-than-expected levels of fertility. Instead of growing throughout, India’s population would peak in 2050 and then decline to 70% of that number by the end of the century. By that point, China’s population would be about half its current size. On the other hand, sub-Saharan Africa would continue to grow, with Nigeria entering the 22nd century as the world’s second-largest country, behind India and just ahead of China and Pakistan.<br /><br />For policymakers in India and several other developing nations, this isn’t good news. As the authors of the UW study point out, a shrinking global population has “positive implications for the environment, climate change, and food production.” But it also means time is running out — indeed, may already have run out — on those nations’ development clocks.<br /><br />China has been truly fortunate in its demographics; it peaked at the right time. Working-age Chinese people, both in total numbers and as a share of the population, crested just when world trade was most open. This made the possibilities for manufacturing-led growth easier to seize than they had been for centuries.<br /><br />Those countries that come next — India and Pakistan in particular — will confront a more closed world. And, worse, they now know that it is people currently in the workforce, or children in school, who over their lifetimes will have to lift the country to prosperity. For countries whose populations will begin to decline in the 2040s, this generation of workers and the next is all there is: They must, like their Chinese counterparts in the last two decades, push their countries from farm to factory and beyond.<br /><br />Right now, India’s boosters tout the fact that its working-age population swells by a million people a month, propelling economic growth. If that demographic push runs out sooner than expected, growth will depend on individual productivity, not sheer numbers. That means education and healthcare and similar “soft” infrastructure no longer look like rich-country luxuries. Unless they are put into place within the next decade, indeed within the next few years, countries such as India, Indonesia and Brazil may never become rich.<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-54901865983123480952020-07-09T16:40:19.918-07:002020-07-09T16:40:19.918-07:00China to provide $4m equipment for #vocational tra...China to provide $4m equipment for #vocational training institutes in #Pakistan for socio-economic uplift. Vocational training will support development of skilled #labor force for low cost #housing, #agriculture, #COVID mitigation, pest control, etc. https://nation.com.pk/09-Jul-2020/china-to-provide-dollar-4m-equipment-for-vocational-training-institutes<br /><br />China would provide training equipment worth $4 million (approximately 650 million rupees) for the vocational training institutes/ schools around Pakistan through National Vocational and Technical Training Commission.<br /><br />The signing ceremony for Letter of Exchange for provision of ‘Vocational School Equipment and Material’ was held at the Ministry of Economic Affairs. Yao Jing, Ambassador of People’s Republic of China to Pakistan, and Dr. Wang Zhihua, Minister Counsellor, Embassy of China in Pakistan attended the ceremony and from Pakistan side Noor Ahmed, Federal Secretary of Economic Affairs Division, signed the LOE.<br /><br />The ambassador reassured cooperation by government of China for socio-economic development in Pakistan. A number of projects under social welfare of the poor and vulnerable people are already under progress like cooperation in PM’s Low Cost Housing Scheme and boosting rural economy through agricultural support. Government of China has also supported Pakistan to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic. Pesticide and equipment has been provided to control the locust spread in the southern parts of the country. The ambassador also appreciated the continuity of CPEC projects particularly establishment of export-based industry in Special Economic Zones under SEZs despite challenging conditions globally due to pandemic.<br /><br />Secretary Economic Affairs reiterated strong commitment towards further strengthening and expanding of bilateral economic cooperation between China and Pakistan. Both sides agreed that all the ongoing initiatives will be pursued very closely to achieve the targeted completion so that people of Pakistan can benefit from the Chinese assistance in a more productive manner.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-61759871221162006162017-08-25T20:25:36.751-07:002017-08-25T20:25:36.751-07:00#Pakistan (220 million incl #AJK) passes #Brazil (...#Pakistan (220 million incl #AJK) passes #Brazil (210 million) to become 5th-most populous nation https://shar.es/1ShVCE via @SkyNewsAust<br /><br />Pakistan has surpassed Brazil to become the fifth-most populous country on earth, as the southern Asian nation's population surges beyond 220 million people, the latest figures show.<br /><br />In March, the South Asian nation conducted its first population census in two decades, which was possible thanks to improved security after years of violence linked to al-Qaeda and Taliban militants.<br /><br />The officials counted every individual and their housing unit in a countrywide door-to-door exercise that lasted for more than two months, said the Pakistan Bureau of Statistic, which conducted the census.<br /><br />The government released the outcome on Friday. The figure came in much higher than the earlier estimate of around 200 million.<br /><br />The population in the country's four provinces and the tribal regions near the Afghan border stood at 207.77 million, according to the bureau.<br /><br />Another 15 million people live in the disputed regions of Kashmir and Gilgit- Baltistan in the north, near the country's border with China, a PBS official said.<br /><br />But the population of these two regions are not included along with that of Pakistan's because of the disputes, although people from these areas are allowed to hold Pakistani passports.<br /><br />Pakistan was previously the sixth-most populous country in the world, with an estimated population of around 200 million before the census, but it had now surpassed Brazil, which has a population of about 210 million.<br /><br />Pakistan's population has been growing at an average rate of 2.4 per cent per year in the past two decades, despite efforts by the government to control the rapid increase in population, the data shows.<br /><br />'This is a surprising factor. The rate is much higher than estimates,' said Shakeel Ahmed Ramay, a researcher with Islamabad-based Sustainable Development Policy Institute.<br /><br />For a country like Pakistan with limited resources, such a huge population could become a burden if innovative policies are not made to turn the youth bulge into an asset, Ramay added.<br /><br />'You got to have some policy framework to promote entrepreneurship to engage a sea of people ... Otherwise, more individuals means more consumption of resources,' he explained.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-17664365799960448592017-04-25T20:34:18.125-07:002017-04-25T20:34:18.125-07:00Pakistan Education Statistics 2015-16.pdf
http:/...Pakistan Education Statistics 2015-16.pdf<br /><br /><br />http://library.aepam.edu.pk/Books/Pakistan%20Education%20Statistics%202015-16.pdf<br /><br />In Pakistan, 1,418 degree colleges are<br />providing their services in education<br />system. Out of these 1,259 (89%) are in<br />public sector, whereas 159 (11%) are in<br />private sector.<br />The total enrolment at degree college<br />stage i.e. in grades 13 and 14, is 0.937<br />million. Out of these students at this<br />stage of education, 0.808 million (86%)<br />are completing their degrees from public<br />sector, whereas, rest of the 0.128 million<br />(14%) students are in private sector.<br />There are only 11% degree colleges are<br />running under private sector of<br />education, the reason is that these<br />colleges tend to be more expensive then<br />public colleges. <br /><br />----------<br /><br />There are total 163 universities<br />providing their services in both public<br />and private sector of education. Out of<br />these universities 91 (56%) are working<br />under umbrella of public sector,<br />whereas 72 (44%) are working under the<br />supervision of private sector as<br />reflected.<br />The total enrolment in the universities,<br />i.e., at post graduate stage, is 1.355<br />million. Out of this enrolment 1.141<br />million (84%) students are enrolled in<br />public universities, whereas, 0.214<br />million (16%) students are studying in<br />private universities. Despite the fact<br />that there are more universities in public<br />sector there are less students in these<br />universities as compare of private<br />sector.<br />The total male enrolment in the<br />universities is 0.753 million (56%),<br />whereas, the female enrolment is 0.602<br />million (44%).<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-19913162694272078832016-12-08T07:46:00.680-08:002016-12-08T07:46:00.680-08:00Excerpts of ADB Asia Economic Integration Report (...Excerpts of ADB Asia Economic Integration Report (AEIR) 2016 report: <br /><br /><br />In Asia and the Pacific, many economies could expand<br />their role as the source or host economy for migrant<br />workers. Labor supply is still growing in developing<br />economies—such as Cambodia, Indonesia, the Lao<br />People’s Democratic Republic, Mongolia, Myanmar, India,<br />Pakistan, and the Philippines—and they could export<br />labor across the region. In contrast, developed but aging<br />economies such as Hong Kong, China; the Republic of<br />Korea; Japan; and Singapore are unable to meet labor<br />demand with their dwindling workforce. Hence, these<br />economies would benefit from immigrant labor. Kang<br />and Magoncia (2016) further discuss the potential for<br />migration to reallocate labor from surplus to deficit<br />economies and offer a glimpse of how the demographic<br />shift will frame Asia’s future population structure,<br />particularly the future working age population. Among the<br />issues explored is the magnitude of labor force surpluses<br />and deficits within different economies in Asia <br /><br />------<br /><br /><br />World populations are aging—with the speed and extent of the<br />demographic shift varying across developed and developing<br />economies. Asia and the Pacific is at the heart of this demographic<br />shift with the world’s largest share of people aged 60 or over—<br />estimated to reach 62% by 2050. With the high and growing<br />share of economically inactive retirees and declining fertility<br />rates, labor supply will suffer, ultimately undermining the region’s<br />economic output.<br />How will the demographic shift frame Asia’s future population<br />structure, particularly working-age population? Using population<br />accounting methodology, Kang and Magoncia (2016) show how<br />effective certain policies could address the challenges associated<br />with the demographic change of population aging. One of the<br />policies explored is the increase in regional migration to augment<br />labor force deficits in aging economies in the region.<br /><br /><br />https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/214136/aeir-2016.pdfRiaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-45831705334870047642016-10-28T08:53:39.387-07:002016-10-28T08:53:39.387-07:00ISLAMABAD: Cambridge International Examinations (C...ISLAMABAD: Cambridge International Examinations (CIE) announced O’ and A’ Level results on Thursday.<br /><br />Schools in Pakistan made over 270,000 entries for Cambridge qualifications this year, an increase of seven per cent over last year. The names of high achievers across the world will be announced in January after detailed analysis of the results.<br /><br />Students heave a sigh of relief as CIE announces results<br /><br />“More students than ever before collected their CIE results today, as entries for Cambridge qualifications continue to grow in Pakistan and around the world,” said CIE Country Director Uzma Yousuf Zaka.<br /><br />Entries for O’ Level increased by five per cent from 154,137 in 2014-15 to 162,208 in 2015-16 and entries for A’ Level increased by eight percent from 84,365 to 91,094, the CIE Pakistan office told The Express Tribune.<br /><br />The popularity of Cambridge IGCSE is also growing in Pakistan, with entries increasing by 16 per cent this year, going up from 10,364 in 2014-15 to 12,019 this year.<br /><br />Globally there has been 10 percent growth in entries across all Cambridge qualifications this year, including 11 per cent growth in entries for Cambridge International A Levels and 8 per cent for Cambridge IGCSE.<br /><br />Schools in Islamabad offering O’ and A’ levels programmes said they were satisfied with the result.<br /><br />KGS tops list of outstanding Cambridge learners<br /><br />We had the best results this year, said Fahim Khan, Principal of Headstart, Senior Branch, F-8/4. About 330 students had appeared in the exam, and of them, over 100 were high achievers with more than three As. The students mostly secured As and A* in science subjects, economics and math, he said.<br /><br />We have regular, foreign qualified and committed teaching staff, he said, and we try to create a positive relationship between students and teachers besides striking a balance between cocurricular and academic activities.<br /><br />Natalia Ahsan, the best academic student who secured five straight As in A Level in the school said the best part was that the teachers were always available to them and she did not have to do extra efforts in the exams or go to tuition centers.<br /><br />Roots IVY International Schools CEO Khadija Mushtaq said her students earned over 1,200 As in IGCSE, O’ Levels, and A’ Levels.<br /><br />KGS, Lyceum win big at Harvard Model United Nations 2016<br /><br />The most notable among the O Level/IGCSE high achiever was Rida Shahid of DHA campus with 5 A* and 5 As, which is a phenomenal achievement, she said.<br /><br />Saifur Rehman and Babar Mushtaq from Roots IVY Chaklala Scheme III excelled by attaining 9 A*s in IGCSE. other notable IGCSE high achievers with 9 As include Babar Mustafa, Haiqa Kamran, Tallina Talle, Saifur Rehman, Umer Sadiq, Humna Rehman, Muhammad Hassan Malik, and Ali Mustafa Khatai.<br /><br />Tallina Talle attributed her success to her teachers and parents who made her work hard and opined that “if you work hard, you don’t need any tuition academies”.<br /><br />The A’ level results included Muhammad Afaaq, Muhammad Haisam Azhar and Arham Hameed from different campuses achieves 6 straight As.<br /><br />Islamabad College of Arts and Sciences (ICAS) Principal Nusrat Tahir also said praised her students, noting that they achieved 46 A*s, 100 As, and 121 Bs in O’ Levels, and 5 A*s, 60 As, and 55 Bs in A-Levels.<br /><br />http://tribune.com.pk/story/1160600/cambridge-results-record-setting-year-pakistanis/Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-64097883480315490252016-10-28T07:27:47.391-07:002016-10-28T07:27:47.391-07:00THE INTERNATIONAL BACCALAUREATE, A VIABLE OPTION F...THE INTERNATIONAL BACCALAUREATE, A VIABLE OPTION FOR PAKISTANI STUDENTS.<br />Most Pakistani parents choose schools for their children with an eye to ensuring that they are competitive when it comes to applying for admission to U.S. or U.K. colleges. Many today are counting on the Swiss-based International Baccalaureate education program as the more holistic, and competitive, alternative to the British General Certificate of Education’s Ordinary and Advanced level pre-college qualifications.<br /><br />Founded in 1968, the IB aims to develop the “intellectual, personal, emotional and social skills needed to live, learn and work in a rapidly globalizing world.” There are 4,527 schools around the world—including 15 in Pakistan, where the program was introduced in 1996—that offer 5,865 IB programs, from primary school onward, to almost a million students in 147 countries.<br /><br />Karachi’s International School was the first private school to offer the IB in Pakistan, and it took another 10 years for other schools to being adopting the program. The number of Pakistani schools that offer the IB is still small compared to those in India, where the IB took off in 1976 and is offered by 120 schools.<br /><br />Awareness has been an obstacle. “We did not even have a relationship with the Ministry of Education until three years ago,” says Faizol Musa, regional development manager of the IB Board. Over the last three years, IB educators have organized workshops and seminars in Pakistan to create awareness of the program and its admissions-time advantages. But despite that, and its acceptance by the world’s top colleges and universities, many Pakistani universities still do not recognize the IB for admissions.<br /><br />The schools which offer the program recognize its full value. “Parents have a habit of judging their children’s studies with the amount of homework they get,” says Misbah Rani of Lahore’s Sanjan Nagar Public Education Trust. “Our program encourages students to really learn and absorb the information rather than just memorize a few lines.”<br /><br />Offering the IB program requires certification and teacher training, requirements that few schools in Pakistan’s stressed and underserved education market are equipped to handle. Aitchison College recently withdrew its application for certification, while the Lahore Grammar School’s application is pending with the IB Board. (School-certification applications can take up to two years to get accepted.)<br /><br />Costs also account for why Pakistan’s embrace of the IB has been slow in coming. Applications are expensive (the school-certification application carries a one-time fee of $4,383, and the IB Board charges the certified school between $7,192 and $9,846 on an annual basis.) To keep current with the prescribed standards, these certified schools are also required to undergo mandatory training programs for teachers twice a year. It also costs parents more: Rs. 40,000 per month, almost twice the price of the British GCE certification system. However, Sanjan Nagar, a school for underprivileged children with an enrollment of some 700, is managing to offer the IB for Rs. 1,500 per month.<br /><br />“We hope that public schools will also be able to be part of the program as well,” says Musa. “Pakistan is one of the fastest growing regions and markets for IB. We are certain that in 10 years it will become one of the key countries for IB worldwide.”<br /><br /><br /><br />http://newsweekpakistan.com/education-in-a-rapidly-globalizing-world/Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-73329646482230667542016-06-20T19:10:48.552-07:002016-06-20T19:10:48.552-07:00#Pakistan, #China discuss increased collaboration ...#Pakistan, #China discuss increased collaboration in #vocational #training & #education #CPEC<br /><br />http://tribune.com.pk/story/1126642/meeting-pakistan-china-discuss-collaboration-vocational-education/<br /><br />Pakistan and China have agreed to increase collaboration in the field of vocational education and teacher training programmes.<br /><br />The agreement came during a meeting between a delegation from China’s Tianjin University of Technology and Education (TUTE) and National Vocational and Technical Training Commission (NAVTTC) Executive Director Zulfiqar Ahmad Cheema here on Monday.<br /><br />Cheema briefed the delegation about the working of NAVTTC and its recent initiatives such as establishment of job placement centres for its graduates.<br /><br />He said the under-construction China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) would open new vistas of prosperity and development and would create employment opportunities in Pakistan.<br /><br />Cheema said the two countries should enhance their collaboration to reboot the TVET system in Pakistan.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-59820242216818955062016-04-23T07:56:13.169-07:002016-04-23T07:56:13.169-07:00#Pakistan’s Enormous Long-Term #Growth Potential. ...#Pakistan’s Enormous Long-Term #Growth Potential. Young #demographics, expanding #economy, #CPEC http://www.barrons.com/articles/pakistans-enormous-long-term-growth-potential-1461386993 … via @barronsonline<br /><br />To Western eyes, building a business in Pakistan seems nearly impossible with the country’s history of political turmoil and bouts of deadly terrorism committed by Islamic extremists.<br /><br />But there is a long-term growth story in the frontier market, where the economy is expanding at a roughly 4.5% annual pace. As part of a $6.6 billion loan package, the International Monetary Fund got the country to raise taxes and cut subsidies—notably for electric power. But the IMF program expires this year, a key risk. Still, the IMF noted in a recent review that Pakistan has shored up foreign reserves thanks to low oil prices, and it praised the creation of an independent monetary-policy committee. It also acknowledged that restructuring or privatizing ailing public enterprises has been disappointingly slow.<br /><br />The key to long-term growth is Pakistan’s population. At roughly 190 million, it is the sixth largest in the world. Importantly, more than half of Pakistan’s citizens are under age 25, eager for education and interested in success, says Najeeb Ghauri, CEO and founder of NetSol Technologies (ticker: NTWK), a California software company with a Pakistani campus.<br /><br />“Contrary to the negative headlines,” says T. Rowe Price frontier markets portfolio manager Oliver Bell, “Pakistan has been slowly progressing on a much more stable path; we saw successful elections and the peaceful handover of power in 2013, and the new government has shown a commitment to adhere to the IMF program.” Bell adds that Pakistan’s aggressive privatization of companies “is creating liquidity and buying opportunities” in its stock market.<br /><br />ONE OF THE BEST WAYS for retail investors to access this growth—a decidedly long-term bet—is the Global X MSCI Pakistan exchange-traded fund (PAK). The year-old ETF’s total return is negative 11% since inception. But that’s better than the iShares MSCI Frontier Market ETF (FM) and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), which each fell 18%.<br /><br />Financials account for a third of the Pakistan ETF, and Bell likes banks. A favorite is Pakistan’s largest lender, Habib Bank (HBL.Pakistan), which the government took public last year. A high percentage of Pakistan’s population don’t use banks, and Bell expects expanded loan growth. China’s investment in Pakistan’s infrastructure, especially power plants, should boost long-term growth. Earnings on Friday beat analysts’ expectations. Bell thinks the bank’s return on equity can expand to 25% in 2018 from 17% in 2013. But he doesn’t think the stock is expensive, at 1.4 times book value, given its growth and 8% yield.<br /><br />Of note: Habib Bank’s New York branch got an enforcement order from U.S. authorities in December, after they found repeated “significant breakdowns” in anti-money-laundering efforts.<br /><br />Multinationals are taking notice of Pakistan’s strides. Coca-Cola (KO) is expanding its Pakistan operations, which boasted double-digit growth in the latest quarter, says Curt Ferguson, president of Coke’s Middle East and North Africa business. He told Barron’s last week, “Pakistan is growing again. We just made a huge investment near the India-Pakistan border, in Mutan, which has a gorgeous new airport. Pakistan would really surprise people.”<br /><br />Perhaps, but not everyone wants the risk. Paul Christopher, global strategist at Wells Fargo, told us that Pakistan is among the frontier markets whose volatility makes it “not investible.”<br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-38815658493523416952016-04-21T16:27:06.650-07:002016-04-21T16:27:06.650-07:00#Microsoft launches http://Rozgar.Work , #Employab...#Microsoft launches http://Rozgar.Work , #Employability & #Entrepreneurship Platform for #Pakistan. #skillsgap<br /><br />http://www.winbeta.org/news/microsoft-launches-rozgar-work-employability-entrepreneurship-platform-pakistan<br /><br />Microsoft has launched the first of its kind Employability and Entrepreneurship Platform, Rozgar.Work, in Pakistan, in collaboration with World Vision-Pakistan (via ProPakistani). The platform offers job-seekers with end-to-end career guidance, up skilling, job-matching and mentorship to address the ever growing issue of unemployment and underemployment. The new platform is powered by Microsoft Windows Azure Cloud, SQL, and SharePoint 2013.<br /><br />The event was attended by Federal Minister for Planning and Development Ahsan Iqbal as the chief guest, as well as Microsoft and World Vision executives.<br /><br />Microsoft Pakistan’s General Manager Nadeem Malik said,<br /><br />At Microsoft we believe in sharing our success with the communities, wherever we operate. Rozgar.Work is a robust platform which can enable revolutionary enrichments in the society, by empowering the youth, to find effective solutions for the various challenges faced by the society.<br /><br />Entrepreneurship and skill-development are the solution to many of Pakistan’s economic issues. Microsoft is committed to create fresh opportunities for the youth, to play a key role in nation-building. We appreciate the valuable support from WVI-Pakistan to make this program successful.<br /><br />Program Development Manager at WVI -Pakistan Rizwan ul Haq said,<br /><br />We are really excited to be a part of this pioneering initiative with Microsoft. World Vision is an international humanitarian organization that works for poverty alleviation,<br /><br />Social Development, Disaster-Relief, Education, Healthcare and Justice for the deprived segments. We would like to thank the leading enterprises like TIE, PASHA, that have joined today’s event to show their support for this initiative.<br /><br />Career counselling is a big task, and if you don’t do your proper research, you may end up in a field which is not fit for you in the long run. With Rozgar.Work, job seekers can get in touch with people who are well informed about the careers and can help new graduates make the right choice. Additionally, the platform also boasts an Online & Mobile Job-Matching & Search-functionality allowing job seekers to search for the best possible job opportunities available.<br /><br />The platform also has online courses to learn from, as well as online and offline training options for different skills, and to earn a diploma.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-7023894874056607682016-04-08T23:13:07.804-07:002016-04-08T23:13:07.804-07:00#India's population explosion will make or bre...#India's population explosion will make or break its economy. Not enough jobs and huge skills gap #BJP http://cnnmon.ie/1V1p0FL via @CNNMoney<br /><br />unless India makes big improvements in how it educates and trains students, this demographic boom could instead saddle the country with another generation of unskilled workers destined to languish in low-paying jobs.<br />The need to train workers up -- and quickly -- is paramount. Currently only 2% of India's workers have received formal skills training, according to Ernst & Young. That compares with 68% in the U.K., 75% in Germany and 96% in South Korea.<br />It's a problem spread across industries. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors estimates that in 2010, India needed nearly 4 million civil engineers, but only 509,000 professionals had the right skills for the jobs. By 2020, India will have only 778,000 civil engineers for 4.6 million slots.<br />There is a similar gap among architects. India will have only 17% of the 427,000 professionals it needs in 2020.<br /><br />The problem? The RICS found that India's education and professional development system has not kept pace with economic growth and is in "dire need for reform."<br />In industry after industry, the same story is repeated. A recent survey by Aspiring Minds, which tracks workforce preparedness, found that more than 80% of India's engineering graduates in 2015 were "unemployable."<br />"The quality of training offered in most colleges is not at par with the high demands generated by tech industries," said Preet Rustagi, a labor economist at the Institute for Human Development. "There is no regulatory body that keep checks on the quality of education."<br /><br />Critics say India's universities are too focused on rote memorization, leaving students without the critical thinking skills required to solve problems. Teachers are paid low salaries, leading to poor quality of instruction. When students are denied entry to prestigious state schools, they often turn to less rigorous private colleges.<br />"When IT industries boomed in India a few years ago, many below-the-mark private colleges emerged to cater to their needs," said Alakh N. Sharma, director at the Institute for Human Development.<br /><br />Prime Minister Narendra Modi is racing to provide workers with training. His government is recruiting skills instructors, and turning old schools into learning centers. Programs strewn across various government agencies are being consolidated. Companies in the private sector are pitching in to help provide training.<br />The most pressing need, however, might be in primary education. Pupils in India are expected to perform two-digit subtraction by the age of seven, but only 50% are able to correctly count up to 100. Only 30% of the same students are able to read a text designed for five-year-olds, according to education foundation Pathram.<br />If the country's unique demographics are to pay dividends, improvement is a lesson to be learned quickly. <br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-4653026092656123192016-01-15T09:55:10.487-08:002016-01-15T09:55:10.487-08:00In #Pakistan, cultivating young #entrepreneurs by ...In #Pakistan, cultivating young #entrepreneurs by specialized vocational training | Pakistan | UNICEF https://shar.es/16POwy via @sharethis<br /><br />A vocational training programme supported by Barclays and UNICEF gives a young motorcycle mechanic in Pakistan just the start he needed.<br /><br />OKARA, Punjab Province, Pakistan, January 2015 – “I have my own motorcycle repair shop and am earning enough for my family to have a decent life,” says Mohammad Tanvir, 19. “Circumstances forced me to give up education after middle school. I started working in a motorcycle repair shop just to learn some skills. I did not get paid for my work since I was a novice and the owner of the shop was teaching me.”<br /><br />Poverty, along with limited access to both quality education and employment opportunities, is often a major factor hindering young men and women from fulfilling their potential. Through learning demand-driven skills and getting guidance on employment or entrepreneurship opportunities, young people can have the opportunity to brighten their futures. This is precisely the objective of Building Young Futures, a project implemented by UNICEF Pakistan, with funds from Barclays UK.<br /><br />While working in the shop, Mohammad heard about a course on motorbike mechanics for young people, offered at the Vocational Training Institute (VTI) in Okara. “I thought, Why not do it the proper way and be a certified motorbike mechanic from a reputable organization? I joined the course and am enjoying the benefits now.”<br /><br />After completing a 14-month training course at the VTI Okara in 2013, Mohammad had enough confidence as a mechanic to start his own business, rather than work for someone else. On the basis of his certificate from the Institute and pledging the land of his modest family home, he secured a bank loan of PKR 80,000 (about US$760).<br /><br />Hard work and confidence<br /><br />With capital in hand, Mohammad rented a shop in one of the bazars in Okara and bought all the tools he needed. His hard work and confidence paid dividends, and in a little over 18 months, he managed to establish his shop as a reliable and professional repair point for all types of motorbikes.<br /><br />“I earn between 20,000 and 25,000 rupees [$190 to $240] per month from my shop,” Mohammad says. “Sometimes I buy a motorcycle that needs major repairs and sell it at a good price after overhauling it. This helps me make additional money, which I invest in purchasing another bike or covering an unexpected family expense.” <br /><br />In 2012 in selected districts of Punjab province, UNICEF initiated the second phase of the Building Young Futures project. Its goal is to improve income-generating opportunities for socially excluded and vulnerable adolescents by enabling them to access training in life skills, financial literacy and enterprise management. To support the implementation of the project, UNICEF partnered with the Punjab Vocational Training Council (PVTC) and the Department of Youth Affairs, Sports, Archaeology and Tourism.<br /><br />At the VTI Okara, Mohammad was trained by Zahid Iqbal. For many years, Zahid worked at the Atlas Honda Motorcycle factory in Lahore, but with a passion for teaching, he switched jobs and joined VTI Okara.<br /><br />“I always wanted to teach and transfer my knowledge about motorbikes to the younger generation,” Zahid says. “It gives me a great deal of satisfaction to help young people progress in life. Some of them become entrepreneurs; some move abroad. But whenever they return, they come to see me and pay a lot of respect. It is a wonderful feeling to see my students do well in life.”<br /><br />Prosperity and encouragement<br /><br />Around 850 students are enrolled in the VTI Okara at one time, receiving vocational training in two shifts. Nearly 40 per cent are girls and young women, who often take up embroidery, cutting and stitching, dress-making or beautician courses.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-86540192523948163072015-11-28T21:32:49.130-08:002015-11-28T21:32:49.130-08:00Ever since the global financial crisis, economists...Ever since the global financial crisis, economists have groped for reasons to explain why growth in the U.S. and abroad has repeatedly disappointed, citing everything from fiscal austerity to the euro meltdown. They are now coming to realize that one of the stiffest headwinds is also one of the hardest to overcome: demographics.<br />Next year, the world’s advanced economies will reach a critical milestone. For the first time since 1950, their combined working-age population will decline, according to United Nations projections, and by 2050 it will shrink 5%. The ranks of workers will also fall in key emerging markets, such as China and Russia. At the same time the share of these countries’ population over 65 will skyrocket.<br />Previous generations fretted about the world having too many people. Today’s problem is too few.<br />This reflects two long-established trends: lengthening lifespans and declining fertility. Yet many of the economic consequences are only now apparent. Simply put, companies are running out of workers, customers or both. In either case, economic growth suffers. As a population ages, what people buy also changes, shifting more demand toward services such as health care and away from durable goods such as cars.<br />Demographic forces are assumed to be slow-moving and predictable. By historical standards, though, these aren’t, says Amlan Roy, a demographics expert at Credit Suisse. They are “dramatic and unprecedented,” he says, noting it took 80 years for the U.S. median age to rise seven years, to 30, by 1980, and just 34 more to climb another eight, to 38.<br />There is no simple answer for how business and government should cope with these changes, since each country is aging at different rates, for different reasons and with different degrees of preparedness.<br />Automation can boost workers’ productivity and support the burgeoning ranks of the elderly. Assumptions about aging also need to change. The typical 65-year-old today is roughly as healthy as a 58-year-old was four decades ago and can thus work longer.<br />Older, richer countries can boost their immigrant intake from low-income economies primarily in Africa and Asia, which will make up a growing share of the world’s working-age population—if they can overcome political opposition.<br /><br />http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-demographics-rule-the-global-economy-1448203724 Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-57896848883725541632015-11-28T21:32:11.656-08:002015-11-28T21:32:11.656-08:00Experts have underlined the importance of promotin...Experts have underlined the importance of promoting creative and innovative entrepreneurship for harnessing the potential of over 65% young population of the country with an aim to make them job creators rather than job-seekers.<br /><br />They expressed these views at the two-day ‘Annual Entrepreneurship Conference: Learn, Create and Lead’, organised by the Entrepreneurship Development Institute at the Convention Centre of Pakistan.<br /><br />“Pakistan has more than 65% of youth population that is below 25 years of age; there is an urgent need for innovative use of modern technology and resources to harness this potential for constructive purposes,” said Higher Education Commission Chairman Dr Mukhtar Ahmed.<br /><br />He said there were 100 public-sector and 73 private-sector universities in the country and some of them have already introduced entrepreneurship courses in their curricula, but there is still a need for more in many other universities.<br /><br />“HEC is planning to establish centres for entrepreneurship in universities to facilitate the youth; we also encourage universities to pursue applied research for innovative entrepreneurship,” Ahmed said and underlined the need for establishing maximum technology parks in universities for providing one-window opportunity to the youth to develop their entrepreneurship skills at the academic level.<br /><br />“We have already established one such park in the National University of Science and Technology with the support of China.” National Commission for Human Development Director General Orya Maqbool Jan said, “Entrepreneurship is not a concept of the modern world; it was founded by Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) centuries ago, who was the greatest innovative entrepreneur.”<br /><br />He introduced justice, principle and ethics-based entrepreneurship, while the modern corporate culture compromises on these three points, Jan said.<br /><br />Ace Consultant CEO Faez H Syel suggested that policy-makers and authorities should make traditional sectors like plumbing, farming, automobile and small mechanical works the focus of modern entrepreneurship training so that a large chunk of the population could benefit from it.<br /><br />Neya Tel CEO Siraj Tahir said, “You cannot make a business a success without taking initiative. There is no need for higher education to be a good and creative entrepreneur or to have huge monetary resources. You only need ideas and commitment to accomplish them.”<br /><br />http://tribune.com.pk/story/1000377/learn-create-lead-experts-lay-stress-on-innovative-entrepreneurship/Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-17699546172139598192015-11-03T22:07:57.731-08:002015-11-03T22:07:57.731-08:00Here (in Stuttgart, Germany), migration has long b...Here (in Stuttgart, Germany), migration has long been an engine of growth, and integration the bedrock of civic pride. The problems Stuttgart faces are ones that prosperous cities around the globe now share, American ones included: a dearth of affordable housing and the kind of apartments that suit the evolving demographics of the people who occupy them.<br /><br />A screenshot from the website of Norbert Baksa, a Hungarian photographer, showing a model playing a migrant taking a selfie.Open Source: Hungarian Fashion Photographer Defends ‘Migrant Chic’ SpreadOCT. 7, 2015<br />President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey on Monday in Brussels, where he said that the key to resolving the migration crisis was for Europe to do more to contain the war in Syria.Turkish Leader Says E.U. Should Do More About SyriaOCT. 5, 2015<br />A security officer near a fence on Saturday in Coquelles, France, that was damaged as migrants tried to enter the Channel Tunnel.Migrants Evade Security to Enter Tunnel in France OCT. 3, 2015<br />Open Source: Young Refugee Who Fled Syria in Wheelchair Thanks ‘Days of Our Lives’ Stars Who Reunited for HerOCT. 1, 2015<br />A family of migrants from Macedonia at a processing center on a former American military base in Bamberg, Germany.Defining Refugees Versus Migrants in GermanySEPT. 29, 2015<br />“Boomtowns are integration cities,” said Gari Pavkovic, the son of a Croatian guest worker who arrived here decades ago. Mr. Pavkovic now manages immigration for the city government.<br /><br />He ticked off numbers. Forty percent of Stuttgart’s 600,000 residents (or 60 percent of people under the age of 18) come from abroad, twice the national average. After World War II, foreign laborers rebuilt local industry: first Italians, then Greeks, Spaniards, Yugoslavians, Turks. And they’re still coming. Some 20,000 newcomers arrive annually, not counting the current wave of Syrians and others. Immigrants account for one of every three start-ups.<br /><br />The other day, Levent Gunes, who works for the city planning office, provided a tour of a disused tank engine factory, an industrial relic being converted into an arts complex. The man who bought it was born in Turkey and owns a bakery across the street, Mr. Gunes said, next to a big Turkish supermarket and mosque.<br /><br />“The percentage of entrepreneurs in Stuttgart with migrant backgrounds is the highest in Germany,” Mr. Gunes, who teaches at Stuttgart University and is the son of Turkish migrants himself, elaborated over börek and yogurt at the bakery.<br /><br />“We’re talking I.T. people, engineers, architects, artists,” he said. “You only see the greengrocer and the butcher at street level, not all the doctors and lawyers upstairs.”<br /><br />Stuttgart’s big move was to avoid pushing migrants into poor, isolated suburbs as in Rome or Paris, he emphasized.<br /><br />“The layout of the city has reinforced integration,” he said.<br /><br />One can see what he means by what’s not here. Stuttgart doesn’t have ethnic enclaves. After World War II, Mercedes and Bosch erected hostels for guest workers. But by the 1970s, when Manfred Rommel became mayor, political and business leaders adopted a different tack, integrating migrants into existing communities in the city center. Stuttgart embraced a melting pot urbanism.<br /><br />Wilfried Porth, a member of the Daimler board and director of the company’s labor relations, recalls Stuttgart as a dour place years ago.<br /><br /><br />http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/07/world/europe/stuttgart-embraces-migrants-and-the-challenge-of-housing-them.html <br />Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-1896818403410143612015-11-03T22:07:27.310-08:002015-11-03T22:07:27.310-08:00How plunging birth rates spell disaster for econom...How plunging birth rates spell disaster for economic growth? #China #Europe #US http://on.wsj.com/1MqBH5Z via @WSJ<br />By RUCHIR SHARMA<br />Sept. 23, 2015 6:27 p.m. ET<br /><br />News reports suggest that the world is overflowing with people. Politicians in the U.S. and Europe talk about migrants—whether from Latin America or the Middle East—as a threat: They’ll steal jobs, depress wages and upend local ways of life. The backlash plays on deep-seated fears about a “population bomb.” The latest United Nations forecasts suggest that the global population will rise to 9.7 billion over the next 35 years, an increase of 2.4 billion. Where will they live, and what will they eat?<br /><br />This narrative is sorely out of date. For much of the post-World War II era the world’s population grew at an average annual rate of almost 2%. But growth started to plummet in 1990 and is now running at about 1%—the lowest level in the postwar era—according to U.N. data.<br /><br />This collapse is seriously undermining potential economic growth—roughly calculated as the rate of growth in the working-age population added to the rate of growth in productivity, or output per worker—and goes a long way toward explaining the sluggish recovery from the crisis of 2008.<br /><br />Global GDP growth has been trending lower this decade and now stands at just under 2.5% a year, a full percentage point below its long-term precrisis average of 3.5%. It is no coincidence that since 2005 the growth in the working-age population, ages 15 to 64, has slowed from about 1.8% to 1%.<br /><br />Thanks to rising prosperity and increased urbanization, women around the world are having fewer children. Since 1960 the average number of births per woman has fallen to 2.5 from nearly 5. Yet the global fertility rate continues to slip toward 2.1—the figure required to keep the population from shrinking.<br /><br />In 83 countries, which contain almost half the world’s population, the typical woman has fewer than two children, including the U.S., China, Russia, Brazil, South Korea and every major country in Europe.<br /><br />Falling fertility rates typically affect the economy after a lag of 15 years, as babies grow into working-age adults. But oddly, anti-immigrant sentiment has erupted precisely as the economic fallout of the birthrate implosion has become clearly visible. This year, for the first time in the postwar era, China’s working-age population is expected to decline—and it is likely to continue falling in coming years. The emerging world is going to have many fewer people to export than the anti-immigrant populists in the developed world imagine.<br /><br />The negative economic effect of falling birthrates is magnified by another trend: Since 1960 the average lifespan world-wide has climbed to 69 from 50. The overall global population is still rising, slowly, but a greater share of it is people over 50. As previous generations retire they will impose a larger burden, in health care and pensions, on working-age sons and daughters.<br /><br />The aging squeeze will be felt much more sharply in the emerging world where life expectancy has risen, and fertility rates have fallen, faster. In India the fertility rate has plunged from more than 6 in 1960 to 2.5. Though India is still on track to become the world’s most populous country in 2022, the annual growth in its working-age population will fall from an average of 2.2% last decade to 1.1% next decade.<br /><br />Many countries see the threat posed by an imbalance between workers and retirees. Some have offered women “baby bonuses” to have more children, but with spotty results so far. Others have focused on boosting the size of the active labor force by bringing mothers or elderly people back to work. Most European countries are raising their “retirement age”—a 20th-century concept—to prevent energetic 50-somethings from quitting work.<br /><br />---<br /><br />Only the countries that adapt early to the population implosion will thrive in the baby-bust era. Meanwhile, the controversies over immigrants “stealing jobs” are likely to fade in the coming years, and give way to a new war for talent.Riaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-33686591035001040392015-01-28T09:57:01.255-08:002015-01-28T09:57:01.255-08:00New Chief Executive Officer of the British Council...New Chief Executive Officer of the British Council Ciar?n Devane has visited Higher Education Commission (HEC), here to participate in the orientation event "The UK and Pakistan: Increasing Investment in Research for Higher Education."<br />The programme aimed to provide an opportunity to beneficiaries of the HEC-British Council collaborative education and research initiatives to meet the new CEO and benefit from his international experience and proficiency.<br />Prof. Dr. Mukhtar Ahmed, Chairman HEC, Peter Upton, Country Director, British Council Pakistan and Dr. Mansoor Akbar Kundi, Acting Executive Director were also present, besides senior and junior level researchers from Pakistan's higher education sector.<br />British Council has been working with HEC Pakistan since 2004 with the launch of joint Higher Education Links programme and later on with Phase II of the same programme in 2006.<br />The programme has been funded by the HEC and managed by the British Council in Pakistan. To date, the British Council has built 50 research and capacity-building links between higher education institutions of Pakistani and UK.<br />So far, over 160 partnerships under various schemes have been funded in Pakistani universities. Some of the programmes on which HEC and British Council have cooperated include Research Partnerships, Leadership, Knowledge Exchange, Capacity Building of Senior Management of Higher Education Sector in Strategic Management, Transnational Education, Quality Assurance for Pakistani HEIs, Scholarships, Policy Dialogues, Talented Research Exchange, Split-site PhDs, and Transforming English Language Skills for Higher Education.<br />Speaking at the occasion, Devane said,"I am delighted to meet the academic and researcher community of Pakistan. I am grateful to HEC for inviting me to speak and to meet so many partners doing such good work together to strengthen research and higher education in Pakistan.<br />Its really impressive to see the great work presented by senior researchers which shows how you are bringing together some most important sectors of the society, including academics, industry, students, media, and civil society."<br />He said that the universities can play a very important role in stimulating and contributing to innovation and social and economic growth of any country.<br />This role is in addition to core missions of teaching and research, complimenting and enhancing these. "It is very promising to see that the Government of Pakistan has expanding access to higher education and has worked substantially at policy level to improve scientific research activities in Pakistan.<br />It is not simply about commercialization of science through creation of spin offs, licenses etc. It is so encouraging to see how British Council Pakistan and HEC have worked together to make the Pakistani universities as 21st century universities."<br /><br />http://www.brecorder.com/pakistan/general-news/220437-hec-british-council-to-increase-investment-in-research-for-higher-education.htmlRiaz Haqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00522781692886598586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5848640164815342479.post-48390354024932871752014-04-30T21:25:36.494-07:002014-04-30T21:25:36.494-07:00Great Article and I really enjoy by the way you ou...Great Article and I really enjoy by the way you outflow the info. <br />Azizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04114067557221618887noreply@blogger.com