Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Will India Grow Old Before it Gets Rich?

India's population has aged faster than expected while its economic growth has slowed over the last decade. This raises the obvious questions: Will India get old before it gets rich? Is India getting poorer relative to its peers in the emerging markets? 

India's Population Aging. Source: Semafor

As India's birth rate declines rapidly, the proportion of people age 60 and over is rising in the general population. This is particularly true of the southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Meanwhile, the expected demographic dividend from the youth bulge in the country has yet to materialize. High youth unemployment is threatening to cause serious social instability in the world's most populous country. It is also causing a massive brain drain.  

India's GDP Per Capita Compared to Emerging Markets Average. Source: IMF

India is losing its best and brightest to the West, particularly to the United States, at an increasingly rapid pace. A 2023 study of the 1,000 top scorers in the 2010 entrance exams to the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) — a network of prestigious institutions of higher learning based in 23 Indian cities — revealed the scale of the problem. Around 36% migrated abroad, and of the top 100 scorers, 62% left the country, according to a report in the science journal Nature.  Nearly two-thirds of those leaving India are highly educated, having received academic or vocational training. This is the highest for any country, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Annual Population Growth Rapidly Falling Across India. Source: Semafor

India has the lowest GDP per capita among the 5 BRICS nations. The country's GDP growth rate is much slower than the average for emerging markets. It means that India is becoming poorer relative to the rest of the developing world. 

GDP Per Capita Map 2024. Source: IMF
India's GDP Per Capita is Very Low. Source: BBC

The north-side geographic divide in India is growing. The southern five of India’s 28 states (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana) contain 20% of the population and contribute 31% of the GDP, according to The Economist magazine. Among startups, 46% of tech “unicorns” are southerners, particularly from Bangalore. The five southern states provide 66% of the it-services industry’s exports. The latest craze is for “global capability centers”, where multinationals assemble their global auditors, lawyers, designers, architects and other professionals: 79% of these hubs are in the south.

Indian Parliament Seats Based on Current Population. Source: National Herald

There has always been a north-south divide in India in terms of population and wealth. The south has been wealthier and less populous than the north. But the political power is still concentrated in the poorer and more populous northern states. This situation serves Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP party well. But it also creates significant resentment in southern states. 

In his book "The Raisina Model", British Lord Meghand Desai says that India's breakup can not be ruled out. Specifically, he points to three issues that could lead to it:

1.  Cow protection squads are killing Muslims and jeopardizing their livelihoods.  The current agitation about beef eating and gau raksha is in the Hindi belt just an excuse for attacking Muslims blatantly. As most slaughterhouses in UP are Muslim-owned, owners and employees of these places are prime targets.

2. India has still not fashioned a narrative about its nationhood which can satisfy all. The two rival narratives—secular and Hindu nation—are both centered in the Hindi belt extending to Gujarat and Maharashtra at the most. This area comprises 51% of the total population and around 45% of the Muslims in India.

3. India has avoided equal treatment of unequal units. Representation in the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Parliament) is proportional to population size. The larger states dominate both Houses of Parliament. It would be difficult for small states to object, much less initiate reform. In future, small states could unite to present their case for better treatment. 

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Guess Why Pakistani Analyst Uzair Younus is Making Headlines in India!

Ambassador Kishore Mahbubani: America Does Not Respect India

World Happiness Report: India Among Saddest Nations of the World

Balakot and Kashmir: Fact Checkers Expose Indian Lies

WB Poverty Update: India Biggest Contributor to Increase in Poverty

India in Crisis: Unemployment, Hunger Persist After Waves of Covid

Modi's Blunders and Delusions 

India's Israel Envy: What If Modi Attacks Pakistan?

Project Azm: Pakistan to Develop 5th Generation Fighter Jet

Pakistan Navy Modernization

Pakistan's Sea-Based Second Strike Capability

Who Won the 1965 War? India or Pakistan?

Is the West Unwittingly Helping Modi Realize His Akhand Bharat Hindutva Dream?

Has Pakistan Lost All Wars? 



Saturday, October 19, 2024

India: A Rogue State Ruled By Gangsters?

The United States and Canadian governments are alleging that Indian government agents plotted assassinations of Sikh dissidents on their soils. Their investigations paint a shocking picture of how recklessly Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government operates. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) and Home Minister Amit Shah

The criminal charges announced by Washington and Ottawa are backed by Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, the remaining three countries that make up the 5-nation intelligence sharing alliance known as the Five Eyes. Revelations made by the US Justice Department and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) indicate that the authorization for Sikh assassinations came directly from the top Indian government officials, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's right-hand man Amit Shah. International criminal gang leader Lawrence Bishnoi is listed among the people tasked with carrying out the murders. These allegations are based on intelligence gathered from multiple communication intercepts among Indian government officials in New Delhi and Indian diplomats posted in Canada.  

Sikh Leaders Targeted in Assassinations Campaign by Modi Government

RCMP Commissioner Michael Duheme has warned of widespread violence, homicides and a public security threat linked to agents of the Indian government. Duheme said the RCMP has charged “a significant number” of people with direct involvement in homicides, extortions and other criminal acts of violence over the past few years and is aware of more than a dozen threats to members of the south Asian community and the pro-Khalistan movement, according to the Canadian news media.

Meanwhile,  the United States Justice Department (US DOJ) has charged a former Indian intelligence agent Vikash Yadav for allegedly orchestrating a foiled plot to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an American citizen living in New York City.  Last year, the DOJ first announced charges in the case, indicting an Indian national and alleged drug and weapons trafficker, Nikhil Gupta. That indictment also referred to an unnamed Indian government official whom prosecutors said directed the scheme. 

New Delhi is responding very differently to almost identical allegations made by the US and Canadian governments. While the Canadians are treated with total disdain, the Americans are being taken very seriously. The behavior of the Modi officials toward Canada is just as hostile as it has been toward Pakistan which has also documented a campaign of assassinations of Sikhs and Kashmiris orchestrated by Indian agents on its soil.  

Reacting to the report of Canadian allegations against the Indian government, Pakistan Foreign Secretary Syrus Qazi said: “We are aware of the nature of our eastern neighbor, we know what they are capable of … so it is not a surprise for us. “We caught [one of their] serving naval intelligence officers on our soil. He (Kulbhushan Jadhav) is in our custody and admitted that he came here to create instability and spread evil,” he added. 

Last year, Pakistan foreign office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said her country remained a “target of a series of targeted killings and espionage by (Indian Intelligence Agency) RAW".  “In December last year, Pakistan released a comprehensive dossier providing concrete and irrefutable evidence of India’s involvement in the Lahore attack of June 2021. The attack was planned and executed by Indian intelligence,” she said, adding that in 2016, a high-ranking Indian military officer Kulbhushan Jadhav confessed to his involvement in directing, financing and executing terror and sabotage in Pakistan.

The US government has openly bracketed Mr. Modi with several murderous dictators. Speaking about the US decision to grant immunity to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman in 2022, State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said that it was “not the first time” that the US government has designated immunity to foreign leaders and listed four cases. “Some examples: President Aristide in Haiti in 1993; President Mugabe in Zimbabwe in 2001; Prime Minister Modi in India in 2014; and President Kabila in the DRC in 2018. This is a consistent practice that we have afforded to heads of state, heads of government, and foreign ministers,” he said. 

Modi has a long history of murdering minorities in his country. After the Gujarat anti-Muslim pogrom of 2002, Narendra Modi made the cover of India Today magazine with the caption "Hero of Hatred". Modi was denied a visa to visit the United States.  The US visa ban on Modi was lifted in 2014 after he became prime minister. Since then,  Narendra Modi's image has been rehabilitated by the West as the US and Western Europe seek allies in Asia to counter the rise of China.  However, Modi's actions on the ground in India confirm that he remains "Hero of Hatred" and "Divider In Chief" at his core.  A two-part BBC documentary explains this reality in significant detail. The first part focuses on the 2002 events in Gujarat when Modi as the state chief minister ordered the police to not stop the Hindu mobs murdering Muslims and burning their homes and businesses.  The second part looks at Modi government's anti-Muslim policies, including the revocation of Kashmir's autonomy (article 370) and a new citizenship law (CAA 2019) that discriminates against Muslims. It shows the violent response by security forces to peaceful protests against the new laws, and interviews the family members of people who were killed in the 2020 Delhi riots orchestrated by Modi's allies. 

Here's Indian National Security Advisor on how to use Taliban to attack Pakistan:

https://youtu.be/eYRuk8H5M9E?si=ZB1c7Dd8ntQdKeFi

 


 Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Karan Thapar Dismantles Official Indian Narrative on Kulbhushan Jadhav

How Long Can Modi Escape Accountability For Murder? 

Indian Agent Kubhushan Yadav's Confession

US Government Brackets Modi With Murderous Dictators

Ex India Spy Documents Successful RAW Ops in Pakistan

London Police Document Confirms MQM-RAW Connection Testimony

India's Ex Spooks Blame Kulbhushan Jadhav For Getting Caught

Ajit Doval Lecture on "How to Tackle Pakistan" 

Mohan Lal Bhaskar: An Indian Raw Agent in Pakistan




Thursday, October 10, 2024

Renewable Energy: Clean Electrification of Pakistan's Economy

Access to abundant and cheap electricity is essential for running a modern competitive economy. The rapidly growing power demand for generative AI data centers makes it even more important. The best way to ensure it is in switching to renewable energy sources. That is why Pakistan is in the midst of a renewable power boom. It is ramping up generation of clean energy with solar, hydro, wind and nuclear power. 13 gigawatts of solar panels have been imported in the first half of this year alone. Another 10 gigawatts of hydroelectric power projects are under construction for completion by 2030, bringing the total hydropower capacity to 20 gigawatts. Pakistan's total nuclear energy production capacity rose to 3,620 MW, when the country's sixth nuclear power plant opened two years ago. Pakistan and China have recently signed a $4.8 billion deal to build another 1,200 MW nuclear power plant. There are 36 private wind projects producing approximately 1,845 MW in the country.  Pakistan is phasing out old fossil fuel power plants. It has negotiated the termination of power purchase contracts with five independent fossil fuel power producers (IPPs), including Hubco, the largest IPP currently operating in the country. More negotiations are underway to terminate additional IPP contracts. Payments to these IPPs are a huge burden on the nation’s economy and ordinary consumers alike. There have been violent protests against high electricity rates across the country. 

Renewable Energy. Source: Easy-Peasy.AI

A number of auto companies have announced plans to manufacture electric vehicles. Pakistani automobile joint ventures with Chinese automakers BYD and Changan have recently launched several all-electric and plug-in hybrid models of automobiles in Pakistan. Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited has announced plans to build a hybrid electric vehicles plant in the country. Other major brands like Toyota, Haval, and Hyundai are already offering similar models in the country. It all began with the 2019 electric vehicle policy approved by the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan to incentivize the electrification of the auto industry. Pakistan EV policy goal is to achieve 30% of new cars sales, 50% of new 2-wheeler and 3-wheeler sales and 30% of new truck sales by 2030. By 2040, the target is 90% of all new vehicle sales to be electric. The main incentive is the reduction of sales tax from 17% for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to 1% for all-electric (EV) vehicles.

Pakistan is currently experiencing a huge economic drain in terms of fossil fuel imports. In the first two months of the current fiscal year, Pakistan's oil import bill increased by 23% compared to the same period in 2023. Paying for huge amounts of imported coal, gas, and oil in US dollars has become disastrous, particularly after 40% depreciation of Pakistani currency over the last two years. Switching to cheap renewable sources will have a salutary effect on the country's climate and economy. It will help grow the nation's exports by increasing its exporters' competitiveness. It will also make it easier to manage inflation and reduce the need for recurring IMF bailouts. 

The GenAI revolution is another factor that will dramatically increase global power demand. Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs forecasts that the new high-performance AI data centers alone will grow electricity demand by 160% by 2030. Pakistan needs to prepare for it if it wants to be competitive in this brave new world of generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI). 


Sunday, October 6, 2024

Is Pakistan Getting Ready For AI Revolution?

Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) has taken the world by a storm. It has drawn the attention of academia, businesses and governments around the world.  This technology is expected to transform almost every sector from business and commerce to government, industries and defense. Are Pakistanis aware of its potential?  Is Pakistan getting ready for what is being described as the "AI Revolution"? Let's examine the answers to these questions. 


AI awareness is rising among Pakistan’s general public. The country ranks third with 76% of people being aware of ChatGPT, according to Stanford University’s AI Index Report 2024 covering a survey of 31 countries, including the United States, Europe and East Asia.  India (82%), Kenya (81%), Indonesia (76%), and Pakistan (76%) have the highest awareness rates in the world.  Brazil and Canada have 64% awareness, UK and Japan 61%, China, Germany and France 60% and the US 55%. Poland reported the lowest awareness, at 43%. Globally, 17% of users utilize it daily, 36% weekly, and 16% monthly. India (36%), Pakistan (28%), and Kenya(27%) report the highest levels of daily usage. 

Pakistan is among the top 4 countries for enrollment in Coursera online GenAI courses, according to Jeff Maggioncalda, CEO of Coursera. India, Egypt, Pakistan, and Brazil, make up more than half (52%) of GenAI enrollments on Coursera. It offers more than 4,600 courses and 55 Professional Certificates in up to 21 popular languages, including Arabic, Hindi, and Spanish.  Coursera, a global online education platform, was launched in 2012 by two Stanford Computer Science professors, Andrew Ng and Daphne Koller. 

Pakistan's HEC (Higher Education Commission) has established a partnership with Coursera to give access to online quality education in Pakistan.  As a result, more than 200 universities have gained access to Coursera’s library of courses.  Over 267,000 courses have been completed with students logging over 1.4 million learning hours. More than 45,000 learners have achieved deep-skills specialized certifications from internationally recognized institutions, the most popular specializations being Communication, Data Analysis, and Leadership and Management, according to Coursera

Ashar Aziz Foundation, created and funded by Pakistani-American technology entrepreneur Ashar Aziz, has sponsored Advanced AI Bootcamps at the National University of Science and Technology (NUST) in Islamabad.  The bootcamp series not only provides theoretical knowledge but also emphasizes practical, project-based learning, according to NUST. 

The first AI bootcamp, which focused on Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), was successfully completed at NUST in November 2023. The second bootcamp provided participants with in-depth knowledge and hands-on experience in the development and application of LLMs (Large Language Models). Ghulam Ishaq Khan Institute of Engineering Sciences & Technology (GIKI) also joined this initiative in 2024, conducting its own DNN-focused bootcamp. Participants have the opportunity to work with advanced technologies, including access to a 10xH100 NVIDIA GPU AI supercomputer, ensuring they are well-prepared to tackle real-world challenges in AI. As part of its ongoing efforts, NUST plans to partner with additional universities across Pakistan to further scale this initiative, ensuring that more students have access to high-quality AI training, according to NUST

Smaller towns in Pakistan are also setting up AI programs with the help of Pakistani-Americans. For example, Stanford educated AI expert Shoaib Lari and Silicon Valley based technology executive Jalil Shaikh have helped Islamia University Bahawalpur start an AI program. Jalil Shaikh is now working with US-based companies to place the first group of graduates from this program. 

STEM education underlies Artificial Intelligence. Pakistan stands 4th in the world with 642,562 students enrolled in STEM courses– behind Nigeria (675,371), the US (4,639,771) and India (6,000,967), according to Coursera's Global Skills Report 2023. My own estimate based on HEC data is that STEM enrollment in Pakistan exceeds one million. 

The Pakistan government has released its National AI Policy Draft for comments. It focuses on how AI can help the country promote its national competitiveness and improve the lives of its citizens by outlining a wide range of developmental initiatives necessary for awareness and adoption of AI, reimagining the transparent and fair use of personal data using AI, and stimulating innovation through industry-academia collaborations and investments in AI-led initiatives. The Pakistan government has set up a National Center for Artificial Intelligence (NCAI) at the National University of Science and Technology (NUST). NCAI has created a a consortium model consisting of 6 public sector universities with 9 specialized research centers spread across Islamabad, Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar. 

Pakistan has also seen several private-sector led initiatives to create greater awareness of AI. For instance, Karachi.AI is recognized as a premier community for Applied AI practitioners. Established in 2017, the community proudly hosts over 10,000 members representing various domains. Its mission revolves around three central pillars: raising awareness, promoting engagement, and driving execution. Karachi. AI hosts regular meetups in Karachi, which are also live streamed on its YouTube channel, along with other educational content about AI.  

In addition to skilled human capital, the GenAI apps require a lot of digital public infrastructure, powerful computers and large data centers to securely store and rapidly access vast amounts of data. A number of private investors are jumping in to build data centers in Pakistan. Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MPCL) is planning to develop data centers across the country as part of an expansion into digital infrastructure.  Chakwal Spinning Mills Limited, has recently said it was pivoting to develop data centers.