Sunday, October 19, 2014

India's Israel Envy: What If Modi Attacks Pakistan?

Newly-elected Prime Minister Narendra Modi government's rhetoric about "jaw-breaking" (munh tod) policy toward Pakistan is the latest manifestation of a disease described by Indian diplomat Sashi Tharoor as "India's Israel envy".

India's Israel Envy:

India's Israel envy is reinforced by the Hindu Nationalists over-estimating their country's strength while under-estimating Pakistan's. It's aided by India's western allies' belief that Pakistan can not fight a conventional war with india and its only option to defend itself would be to quickly escalate the conflict into a full scale nuclear war.

Indian MP Mani Shankar Aiyar has summed up India's war rhetoric against Pakistan in a recent Op Ed as follows:

(Indian Defense Minister) Arun Jaitley thumps his chest and proclaims that we have given the Pakis a "jaw-breaking reply" (munh tod jawab). Oh yeah? The Pakistanis are still there - with their jaw quite intact and a nuclear arsenal nestling in their pockets. (Indian Home Minister) Rajnath Singh adds that the Pakis had best understand that "a new era has dawned". How? Is retaliatory fire a BJP innovation? Or is it that we have we ceased being peace-loving and become a war-mongering nation? And (Indian Prime Minister Narendra) Modi thunders that his guns will do the talking (boli nahin, goli). Yes - and for how long?

India's Delusions:

Indians, particularly Hindu Nationalists, have become victims of their own hype as illustrated by Times of India's US correspondent who checked into the veracity of claimed achievements of Indians in America and found such claims to be highly exaggerated: "On Monday, the Indian government itself consecrated the oft-circulated fiction as fact in Parliament, possibly laying itself open to a breach of privilege. By relaying to Rajya Sabha members (as reported in The Times of India) a host of unsubstantiated and inflated figures about Indian professionals in US, the government also made a laughing stock of itself." The Times of India's Chidanand Rajghatta ended up debunking all of the inflated claims about the number of Indian physicians, NASA scientists and Microsoft engineers in America.

Similarly, a US GAO investigation found that India's IT exports to the United States are exaggerated by as much as 20 times. The biggest source of discrepancy that GAO found had to do with India including temporary workers' salaries in the United States. India continuously and cumulatively adds all the earnings of its migrants to US in its software exports. If 50,000 Indians migrate on H1B visas each year, and they each earn $50,000 a year, that's a $2.5 billion addition to their exports each year. Cumulatively over 10 years, this would be $25 billion in exports year after year and growing.

Since the end of the Cold War, the West has been hyping  India's  economic growth to persuade the developing world that democracy and capitalism offer a superior alternative to rapid development through state guided capitalism under an authoritarian regime---a system that has worked well in Asia for countries like the Asian Tigers and China.  This has further fooled Hindu Nationalists into accepting such hype as real. It ignores the basic fact that India is home to the world's largest population of poor, hungry and illiterates. It also discounts the reality that  Indian kids rank near the bottom on international assessment tests like PISA and TIMSS due to the poor quality of education they receive.  The hype has emboldened many Indians, including the BJP leadership, to push neighbors around.

Defense Spending as Percentage of GDP Source: World Indicators

Pakistan's Response:

Pakistan has so far not responded to the Indian rhetoric in kind. It might create an impression that Pakistan is weak and unable to respond to such threats with its conventional force. So let's examine the reality.

Ground War:

In the event of a ground war, Pakistan will most likely follow its "offensive defense" doctrine with its two strike corps pushing deep inside Indian territory. Though Indian military has significant numerical advantage, Pakistan's armor is as strong, if not stronger, than the Indian armor.

Before embarking on further offensive, gains shall be consolidated.  Pakistan is also as strong, if not stronger, in terms of ballistic and cruise missiles inventory and capability, putting all of India within its range.  These missiles are capable of carrying conventional and nuclear warheads.

India-Pakistan Firepower Comparison Source:

In 1990 the Central Corps of Reserves was created to fight in the desert sectors, where enemy land offensives are expected. These dual capable formations trained for offensive and holding actions are fully mechanized. The Pakistan Army has ten Corps including the newly formed Strategic Corps. The Army has twenty-six divisions (eight less than India). Two more divisions were raised as Corps reserves for V and XXXI Corps. The Army has two armored divisions, and ten independent armored brigades. Presently one hundred thousand troops are stationed on the Pak-Afghan border to fight terror.

The Special Service Group – SSG - comprises two airborne Brigades, i.e. six battalions. Pakistan Army has 360 helicopters, over two thousand heavy guns, and 3000 APC’s. Its main anti-tank weapons are Tow, Tow Mk II, Bakter Shiken and FGM 148 ATGM. The Army Air Defense Command has S.A- 7 Grail, General Dynamics FIM-92 Stinger, GD FIM Red Eye, and ANZA Mk-I, Mk-II, Mk-III and HQ 2 B surface to air missiles. Radar controlled Oerlikon is the standard Ack Ack weapon system.

The ballistic missile inventory of the Army is substantial. It comprises intermediate range Ghauri III and Shaheen III; medium range Ghauri I and II and Shaheen II, and short range tactical Hatf I- B, Abdali, Ghaznavi, Nasr, Shaheen I and M -11 missiles. All the ballistic missiles can carry nuclear warheads....some can carry multiple warheads. Nuclear and conventional weapon capable Babur Cruise missile is the new addition to Pakistan’s strategic weapon inventory.  It has stealth features to evade radar to penetrate India's air air-space to hit targets. The number of ballistic missiles and warheads are almost the same as those of India. So there is a parity in nuclear weapons, which is a deterrent.

Tactical missile which can be tipped with miniaturized nuclear warhead is the latest addition to Pakistan's arsenal. It's a battlefield weapon designed to destroy enemy troop concentrations poised against Pakistan.

Air War:

Pakistan has about 900 aircraft compared to India's 1800, giving India 2:1 numerical advantage over Pakistan. India's biggest advantage is in transport aircraft (700 vs 230) while Pakistan has some numerical advantage in two areas: Airborne radars (9 vs 3) and attack helicopters (48 vs 20).

Pakistan Air Force has  over 100 upgraded F-16s and 200 rebuilt Mirage- 3's (for night air defense) and Mirage-5's for the strike role. They can carry nuclear weapons. They have been upgraded with new weapon systems, radars, and avionics. Additionally, the PAF 150 F-7's including 55 latest F-7 PG’s. Manufacture of 150 JF 17 Thunder fighters (jointly designed) is underway at the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex Kamra. The JF-17 Thunder is a 4th generation fly by wire multi-role fighter aircraft. Eight are already in PAF service. An order has been placed with China for the purchase of 36 JF-10, a Mach 2.3 -5th generation multi-role fighter, comparable in performance to the Su-30 Mk-1 with the Indian Air Force.

In spite of Indian Air Force's numerical superiority since independence in 1947, Pakistan Air Force has performed well against it in several wars. The PAF pilots have always been among the best trained in the world.

Complimenting the Pakistan Air Force pilots, the legendary US Air Force pilot Chuck Yeager who broke the sound barrier, wrote in his biography "The Right Stuff": "This Air Force (the PAF), is second to none". He continued: "The  (1971) air war lasted two weeks and the Pakistanis scored a three-to-one kill ratio, knocking out 102 Russian-made Indian jets and losing thirty-four airplanes of their own. I'm certain about the figures because I went out several times a day in a chopper and counted the wrecks below." "They were really good, aggressive dogfighters and proficient in gunnery and air combat tactics. I was damned impressed. Those guys just lived and breathed flying. "

 In 1965, Roy Meloni of the ABC reported: "Pakistan claims to have destroyed something like 1/3rd the Indian Air Force, and foreign observers, who are in a position to know say that Pakistani pilots have claimed even higher kills than this; but the Pakistani Air Force are being scrupulously honest in evaluating these claims. They are crediting Pakistan Air Force only those killings that can be checked from other sources."

Indian Media Cann't Stop Praising Pakistan Air... by zemtv

Naval War:

Of the three branches of the military, India's advantage over Pakistan is the greatest in naval strength. Pakistan has just 84 sea-going vessels of various kinds versus India's 184.

Pakistan Navy can still inflict substantial damage on the Indian Navy. The Indian Navy has 17 submarines. Pakistan Navy has ten, some are brand new and equipped with AIP. Indian Navy has 28 war ships, Pakistan Navy has eleven.

As seen in the past wars, India will attempt a naval blockade of Pakistan. Here's how MIT's Christopher Clary discusses in his doctoral thesis the Indian Navy's ability to repeat a blockade of Pakistan again:

"Most analyses do not account adequately for how difficult it would be for the (Indian) navy to have a substantial impact in a short period of time. Establishing even a partial blockade takes time, and it takes even more time for that blockade to cause shortages on land that are noticeable. As the British strategist Julian Corbett noted in 1911, "it is almost impossible that a war can be decided by naval action alone. Unaided, naval pressure can only work by a process of exhaustion. Its effects must always be slow…. ". Meanwhile, over the last decade, Pakistan has increased its ability to resist a blockade. In addition to the main commercial port of Karachi, Pakistan has opened up new ports further west in Ormara and Gwadar and built road infrastructure to distribute goods from those ports to Pakistan's heartland. To close off these ports to neutral shipping could prove particularly difficult since Gwadar and the edge of Pakistani waters are very close to the Gulf of Oman, host to the international shipping lanes for vessels exiting the Persian Gulf. A loose blockade far from shore would minimize risks from Pakistan's land-based countermeasures but also increase risks of creating a political incident with neutral vessels."


The chances of India prevailing over Pakistan in a conventional war now are very remote at best. Any advantage that India seeks over Pakistan would require it to pay a very heavy price in terms of massive destruction of India's industry, economy and infrastructure that would set India back many decades.

In the event that the India-Pakistan war spirals out of control and escalates into a full-scale nuclear confrontation, the entire region, including China, would suffer irreparable damage. Even a limited nuclear exchange would devastate food production around the world, according to International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, as reported in the media. It would set off a global famine that could kill two billion people and effectively end human civilization as we know it.

I hope that better sense will prevail in New Delhi and India's BJP government will desists from any military adventurism against Pakistan. The consequences of any miscalculation by Narendra Modi will be horrible, not just for both the countries, but the entire humanity.

Here's a video discussion on this and other current topics:

India-Pakistan Tensions; End of TUQ Dharna; Honors for Malala; Ebola Threat from WBT TV on Vimeo.

Here's an interview of former President Musharraf on an Indian TV channel:

Parvez Musharraf blasts Modi in an Indian Talk... by zemtvRelated Links:

Haq's Musings

India Teaching Young Students Akhand Bharat 

Pakistan Army at the Gates of Delhi

India's War Myths

India-Pakistan Military Balance

Pakistan Army Capabilities

Modi's Pakistan Policy

India's Israel Envy

Can India Do a Lebanon in Pakistan?


Vishal said...

Yes, I agree with you Mr. Haq --- consequences of a full-blown war would be disastrous. But we have known that for decades and yet wars have happened.

India would not like any terrorist activity originating from (state or non-state) actors from Pakistan. The emerging view point in India is that if peace overtures don't work, associate a high cost for any militant misadventure and force Pakistan to think about the cost. Rockets-for-bullets is a policy that arises from that perspective. Can that escalate into a major war? Perhaps. And yes, it would have a high cost.

But then, what is the other option? Unless Pakistan has a single power center, or perhaps, a military dictator like Musharraf, I don't think there are many chances of solving the border issue. The way things are progressing in Pakistan, I would not rule out military again coming to power. And yes, that would be the single best thing to happen to both India and Pakistan and peace in that region.

Riaz Haq said...

Vishal: "India would not like any terrorist activity originating from (state or non-state) actors from Pakistan"

There's currently no basis for your claim. It appears to be an excuse by Modi to rally his Hindu Nationalists base.

The last know terrorist attack in India linked to Pakistani group was in 2008.

Pakistan's support for Kashmiri militants ended in 2002.

But, even if your claims are true, think of what you'd achieve by launching war against Pakistan?

I suggest you read the following excerpt from a Mani Shankar Op Ed for an answer:

When a young band of Serbian terrorists slipped into Bosnia to kill Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the Government of Serbia did not know, even as it is entirely likely that the Government of Pakistan did not know that Ajmal Kasab and his gang had slipped into Mumbai to target the iconic Taj Hotel. But, as in India, so in Austria, the suspicion was so strong that there were rogue elements in the Serbian establishment that were backing the terrorists, no proof was needed: suspicion amounted to conviction. Therefore, when the Serbian terrorists struck, assassinating the heir-apparent to the Austro-Hungarian throne, the Empire needed no conclusive proof that the Serbian government was behind the assassination. It knew, as India "knew", that 26/11 was master-minded by the Government of Pakistan. And even as the Pakistan government denied any involvement in such cross-border terrorism and undertook to set in train an investigation into the dastardly terrorist attack, so also, a hundred years earlier, did Serbia condemn the assassination and offer to investigate and bring to justice those responsible.

But Vienna would not be appeased. An eight-point ultimatum was sent to Serbia demanding full acceptance of the eight conditions within a month. Eventually, after much hemming and hawing, Belgrade accepted seven of the conditions but baulked at the eighth - that a joint Austrian-Serbian investigation be launched into the assassination. That was enough for Vienna to insist that if all conditions were not fulfilled, the far more powerful Austro-Hungarian forces would reduce Serbia to rubble in a matter of days.

The threat was meant to cow the Serbians. The Serbians went as far as they could, but baulked at abject surrender. In consequence, military plans began to roll - to the alarm of both Emperor Franz Joseph of Austro-Hungary as well as the German Kaiser whose belligerence was pushing Vienna further and further down the road to disaster. Their political misgivings were entirely understandable. For Russia had declared that any military action against her Slav cousin would invite Russian retaliation against both Austria and Germany. At the same time, Germany had made it clear that her first target was France. Treaty obligations made it incumbent for France to come to Russia's rescue and vice versa in the event of war. Britain was committed to entering the war in these circumstances. The very balance of power that was supposed to have kept the peace in Europe for a hundred years was now pushing the world to the brink.

To prevent this catastrophe, the two Emperors who had been the loudest in proclaiming a "munh thod jawab" to Serbia tried at the last moment to stop the guns from booming, but were over-ruled by their respective military hierarchies. War was launched. The mighty Austro-Hungarian Empire conquered Serbia but ended up losing the War and disappearing from the map of the world. Germany won the opening rounds but ended in humiliating defeat. Defeat on the battle-field led to the Peace Treaty but contained the seeds of resentment that resulted in WWII breaking out 20 years later. It did not end till nearly a hundred million people - mostly unarmed non-combatant civilians - had been killed the world over. That was the outcome of Vienna saying "Boli nahin, goli".

Vishal said...

Mr Riaz: "Pakistan's support for Kashmiri militants ended in 2002."

Well mostly, but not completely. The tacit support still continues. Every year more than 50-60 militants try to sneak in Kashmir before the snow falls. At the peak of militancy this number was in thousands. Interestingly, almost always the infiltration attempts are accompanied by cover fire by Pakistan army. Many of these attempts have been well-documented.

Also, since you cite Mr. Mani Shankar Iyer, he has been a known critic of Mr. Modi (Mr Iyer lost badly in recent elections) and has been critical of anything and everything BJP government has done. While I was never a big fan of Mr. Modi, I think Mr. Iyer's rants have been opposed by even his part members.

Also, while Serbia-Austria example is interesting, it is not quite relevant. Yes, they went to war but that was in the bigger microcosm of WW2, where Austria had aligned with German block that was about to lose against the allied powers. That war theatre is missing in the context of India-Pakistan. But again, I will agree that wars are disastrous and serve no good. But that does not mean you allow infiltration across your borders.

Hashk03 said...

Vishal: "But again, I will agree that wars are disastrous and serve no good. But that does not mean you allow infiltration across your borders."

Does this principle of ethics only apply on Pakistani infiltration on Indian land or does the same principal also apply on Indian infiltration across its borders, e.g. Sri Lanka and other countries.

Would you allow Indian infiltration and support for groups in other countries?

In case of India and Pakistan I can understand that both countries by birth had some issues so they are fighting or trying to defend themselves. But I am struggling to understand why would India support terrorists in Sri Lanka? Any view's on that?

Riaz Haq said...

From India Today: India, Pakistan Army chiefs square off:

The army chiefs of India and Pakistan squared off on the Kashmir issue on Saturday, with General Dalbir Singh directing his commanders to put "relentless pressure" on terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir and his Pakistan counterpart, General Raheel Sharif, reiterating Islamabad's push for Kashmiris to be given the right to self-determination.

During his address at the culmination of the Army Commanders Conference, a key brainstorming session of the top generals, Indian Army chief Gen. Singh referred to the internal security situation and "stressed on the need to maintain relentless pressure on the terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir".

This is necessary so that the terrorists "are not capable of disrupting the forthcoming elections", Singh was quoted as saying in an official statement.

Gen. Sharif, who was addressing a passing-out parade at the Pakistan Military Academy in Kakul, raked up the Kashmir issue and pushed Islamabad's line that Kashmiris should have the right to self-determination and said his force would give a "befitting response" to any "aggression".

"Lasting peace in the region will only come about with the fair and just resolution of the Kashmir issue in accordance with the will of Kashmiri people as enshrined in the UN resolutions," he said.

"Coercion and repression of the Kashmiri people will never shake their confidence to ultimately exercise their freedom of choice promised by the international community. It is our firm belief that the determination of our Kashmiri brethren and collective conscience of free world will bear fruit and their aspirations will eventually be realised," he claimed.

The general, whose remarks echoed recent comments by Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and foreign policy chief Sartaj Aziz, said the Pakistan Army is fully capable of "deterring and defeating aggression across the entire spectrum of threat".

"Yet, we persistently seek peace in the region and beyond... We desire regional stability and a relationship based on equality and mutual respect. Sentiments of goodwill and amity notwithstanding, let there be no doubt that any aggression against our beloved country will get a befitting response and no sacrifice will be too great in this sacred cause," he said.

Read more at:

Vishal said...

>> Does this principle of ethics only apply on Pakistani infiltration on Indian land or does the same principal also apply on Indian infiltration across its borders, e.g. Sri Lanka and other countries.

Hask03: Correct. From August 1983 to May 1987, India, through its intelligence agency RAW, provided arms, training and monetary support to 6 Sri Lankan Tamil militant groups including LTTE.

That was indeed a big blunder and they realized that over the next 2 decades through harsh consequences. Rajiv Gandhi, the Indian prime minister, was assasinated in a bomb blast by the LTTE. Regional war in Srilanka forced hundreds of thousands of refugees in Tamilnadu and brought instability in southern India. It was only after Rajiv Gandhi's assassination that India withdrew its support to LTTE. Karma did pay them back for that blunder.

Mark said...

War is rarely started unless one country is in a clear strategic advantage. China had an advantage over India in 62 - India's intelligence and leadership was in a total mess, India/Bangladesh had an advantage over Pakistan in 71 - not going to start why to avoid getting trolled. India did not force an offensive during Kargil or after terrorist attacks because it did not have an advantage.

A war of attrition will be long drawn, drain the economy, cause several million deaths and if won, will lead to maintaining a territory that hates them - and also total isolation from international community. There is more to be gained from trade and commerce than enslaving mass populations. Thankfully, most nations are sane enough to realize this after 5000 years of warfare.

Ramesh said...

India's top 3 companies are listed in American Stock exchanges and each have a turnover of 5 billion USDollars. It is hard to imagine that their real income is 1/20th of that and american law enforcement are busy reading quran while this fraud by Hindu banias continue.

While we are at it, can you name one single Pak IT company which has an annual turnover of $250 million dollars.

As for war, please try to remember Dec 16 1971. The anniversary is coming soon.


Riaz Haq said...

Ramesh: "India's top 3 companies are listed in American Stock exchanges and each have a turnover of 5 billion USDollars. It is hard to imagine that their real income is 1/20th of that.."

Do you what a code coolie in a body shop? Have you heard about Ron Hira? D you know how Indian govt mislabels code coolie earnings as IT exports?

Have you heard about Satyam fraud?

Ramesh: "As for war, please try to remember Dec 16 1971. The anniversary is coming soon."

Living in 1971 and trying to replicate it now would spell doom for India.

Ramesh said...

The link you are showing to prove indian IT industry cooking books is Oct 2005, nearly a decade old. Since then I have not heard of one Indian single company in USA booked for earnings fraud.

Riaz Haq said...

Ramesh: "you are showing to prove indian IT industry cooking books is Oct 2005, nearly a decade old. Since then I have not heard of one Indian single company in USA booked for earnings fraud"

The problem of Indian govt counting H1B worker salaries year-after-year as exports still persists.

If there was any correction, it would have been reflected in revisions showing significantly lower IT exports.

Indian body shop companies operating in US can count H1B salaries as earnings but Indian govt should not count them as exports.

Hemashri said...

Let me burst your bubble sir. India has it's problems but, the general consensus regarding Pakistan, in the world today, is much more negative than compared to

And here you are, a Pakistani blogger, trying to be hypercritical of India or appease the Pakistanis who may visit your site. There is simply very little credibility sir!

Riaz Haq said...

Hemashri: "Let me burst your bubble sir. India has it's problems but, the general consensus regarding Pakistan, in the world today, is much more negative than compared to India."

Nothwithstanding any negative consensus on Pakistan and western cheerleading of India, the fact is that there are few countries in the world as messed up as India with its widespread poverty, hunger, illiteracy, disease and open defecation.

In fact, India has more poor people than all of Africa combined. India's social indicators are like those of the most backward nations of sub-Saharan Africa.

India has more and fiercer insurgencies than any other country in the world.

India is a poster child for why democracy does not work in the developing world to solve basic problems of the people.

And if you are still deluded enough to start a war with Pakistan, you are in for the shock of your life.

Riaz Haq said...

Eradicating poverty in India requires every person having access to safe drinking water, sanitation, housing, nutrition, health and education. According to the MPI, out of its 1.2 billion-plus population, India is home to over 340 million destitute people and is the second poorest country in South Asia after war-torn Afghanistan. Some 640 million poor people live in India(40% of the world’s poor), mostly in rural areas, meaning an individual is deprived in one-third or more of the ten indicators mentioned above (malnutrition, child deaths, defecating in the open).

In South Asia, Afghanistan has the highest level of destitution at 38%. This is followed by India at 28.5%. Bangladesh and Pakistan have much lower levels. The study placed Afghanistan as the poorest country in South Asia, followed by India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal.

A total of 1.6 billion people are living in multidimensional poverty; more than 30% of the people living in the 108 countries analysed (compare that with a global figure of 1.2 billion in income poverty)
Of these 1.6 billion people, 52% live in South Asia, and 29% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Most MPI poor people – 71% – live in Middle Income Countries (I won’t try and compare this with regional income breakdowns, as the MPI doesn’t cover all countries yet)

Riaz Haq said...

BBC: Modi with Indian troops in Kashmir:

Indian PM Narendra Modi has made a brief visit to the Siachen glacier on his way to Indian-administered Kashmir to spend the Diwali festival looking at damage caused by last month's floods.

The glacier, claimed by both India and Pakistan, is known as the world's highest battlefield.

Mr Modi tweeted he was going to Siachen to "spend time with our brave soldiers on this special day".

He is the the second PM after Manmohan Singh to visit the contested site.

Mr Singh visited the glacier in June 2005 and had said it should become a "peace mountain" between India and Pakistan.

More soldiers have died from the harsh weather conditions in Siachen than in combat. Soldiers have been deployed at heights of up to 22,000 ft (6,700m) above sea level on the glacier.

Indian troops snatched control of the glacier in northern Kashmir in April 1984, narrowly beating Pakistan. Three decades later, the two sides remain locked in a stand-off.

Mr Modi will later travel to Kashmir where floods last month killed 281 people and left Srinagar city under water. More than a million people were displaced. He had called the deluge a "national disaster".

'Share our grief'
September's flooding damaged some 180,000 houses and many people are still living in relief camps.

Mr Modi is expected to review relief measures, visit a camp for flood victims and announce special assistance for the affected.

His visit is taking place on Diwali, the biggest Hindu festival, and is being seen as a gesture of solidarity and assistance to the flood hit people.

He tweeted on Monday that he would spend his Diwali with "our brothers and sisters affected by the unfortunate floods" in Srinagar.

Riaz Haq said...

Pankaj Mishra in Nw York Times:

"Mr. Modi doesn’t seem to know that India’s reputation as a “golden bird” flourished during the long centuries when it was allegedly enslaved by Muslims. A range of esteemed scholars — from Sheldon Pollock to Jonardon Ganeri — have demonstrated beyond doubt that this period before British rule witnessed some of the greatest achievements in Indian philosophy, literature, music, painting and architecture. The psychic wounds Mr. Naipaul noticed among semi-Westernized upper-caste Hindus actually date to the Indian elite’s humiliating encounter with the geopolitical and cultural dominance first of Europe and then of America."

Riaz Haq said...

It has been evident for some time that India’s security policy in relation to China and Pakistan is in a serious state of disrepair. If security concerns of a country in the international sphere are deemed to be a sub-set of its external relations, then it is reasonably clear that our policy towards two of our most significant neighbours, one of which aspires to the status of an international superpower, leaves much to be desired.
More, things have got worse, not better, since the Modi regime was ushered in last May on a high note and with the loud proclamation that the incoming government was oriented to fix troubles with neighbours and launch into a period of peace and stability.
The unspoken part was that matters had worsened in the previous 10 years of the Congress-led government, that dialogue was sterile or absent in this time, and the prosecution of foreign affairs had lost steam; ergo, a fresh look by the new leader, made powerful by virtue of a full-fledged parliamentary majority, would yield India its rightful place and command respect from all, especially the neighbours.
On Friday, however, Union home minister Rajnath Singh, addressing the ITBP on its raising day, observed that it made India “hurt and angry” when Pakistan engaged in ceasefire violations and China intruded and made territorial claims on the Indian side. Clearly, a new era is not about to dawn.
That was apparent when Prime Minister Narendra Modi was engaging with visiting Chinese President Xi Jinping seated on a swing in Ahmedabad but Chinese troops were rolling into Indian territory. Now the home minister says we should solve all problems on the basis of talks alone, but inserts the rider that good relations can only be on the basis of “honour”.
Who can dispute that? But how come the government has not been able to establish where matters lie now and how they can be taken forward? Is the PM keeping all this close to his chest while the home minister labours in a state of innocence?
In the context of Pakistan, the Prime Minister announced that India had “shut Pakistan’s mouth”. Not particularly elegant coinage. But it is not even consistent with facts on the ground. Ceasefire violations have gone on intermittently and took place even on Diwali day. Meanwhile, the Pakistan Parliament has declared India the violator and urged the UN to step in. Is there a comprehensive effort to look at the overall picture and act? National security adviser Ajit Doval has reiterated the talks mantra but also spoke of India’s search for a “deterrence” to deal with Pakistan’s ceasefire violations. We are in the dark if there is a nuclear ring about this. The country must be taken into confidence.

Riaz Haq said...

India has grounded its entire Sukhoi-30 fleet after a recent crash because it doesn’t want to put its pilots in harm’s way.

The fighters have not flown for a week after a Su-30 MKI of the Indian Air Force crashed near Pune, raising questions about the safety record of the fighter.

With the IAF operating close to 200 twin-engine Su-30s, the grounded planes represent almost a third of the country’s fighter fleet. India is due to get 72 more of these planes, each worth over Rs. 200 crore.

The IAF is down to 34 combat squadrons, as against an authorised strength of 44. Each squadron has up to 18 fighter planes.
Villagers gather near an Indian Air Force Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighter jet that crashed near Pune on October 14. (PTI Photo)

An IAF official said safety checks with “special focus on ejection seats” were being conducted and flight operations would resume only after each plane was cleared. A highly-placed source said the pilots of the plane that crashed on October 14 near Pune had reported “automatic seat ejection.” One of the two pilots was involved in a previous Su-30 crash too.

Five Su-30 fighters have crashed during the last five years, setting off alarm bells in the IAF. The Su-30 fleet has been grounded at least twice in the past.

Former IAF chief Air Chief Marshal Fali Major told HT, “A fleet is grounded when you have no clue as to what brought the plane down. It’s serious.”

Asked if buying Su-30s was a doubtful choice, Major said the planes were splendid but IAF needed to get to the bottom of the problem. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited assembles and repairs these planes in India.

IAF chief Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha had told reporters on October 4 that the Su-30 fleet was facing certain problems, but he refused to elaborate. The IAF’s Su-30 fleet has faced a high number of mid-air engine failures during the last two years, said another official.

Riaz Haq said...

Although the results of such exercises (Red Flag in Las Vegas, NV) are rarely made public, the USAF jumped the gun. Just as it leaked the results of Cope India 2004, in November 2008 a video surfaced of a US Air Force officer talking in a generally condescending manner about the IAF. In particular five things that Col Terence Fornof said stick out:

The IAF has problems with its Russian jet engines
Indian pilots were prone to fratricide – shooting down friendly aircraft
The IAF required 60-second intervals between takeoffs, compared with half that for other air forces
The American F-15 can defeat the Su-30MKI, the most advanced fighter in the Su-30 series
IAF not keen on 1 vs 1 dogfights with the USAF.

Riaz Haq said...

From Indian Express:

Pakistan will launch a campaign internationally against the human rights “violations” by the Indian army in Kashmir, the country’s Adviser on Foreign Affairs said on Friday.
Giving a statement in the Senate, the Upper House of the Parliament, on the recent incidents of ceasefire violations, Sartaj Aziz said, “700,000 Indian troops are responsible for human rights violations in occupied Kashmir and Pakistan will launch a campaign to highlight these abuses at the international level.”
Radio Pakistan quoted the adviser as saying that the violations were a reflection of the “election manifesto” of Narendra Modi, who he claimed had said that his government would “get tough” on Pakistan.
Aziz has said that India carried out 224 ceasefire violations on the Line of Control (LoC) and Working Boundary this year and their intensity has been more than the previous violations.
He also said that Pakistan always tried to resolve the issue through dialogue but there was no positive response from the Indian side.

- See more at:

Riaz Haq said...

As India considers its threat environment, it must consider not just ballistic missiles, but also cruise missiles, such as those that might potentially be launched from Pakistan or China. These latter are far more difficult to detect and intercept than are ballistic missiles.

A cruise missile has been defined as a “weapon which automatically flies an essentially horizontal cruise flight profile for most of the duration of its flight between launch and its terminal trajectory to impact.” Land-attack cruise missiles further complicate the task of any defense system, since they can be terrain hugging and can also fly a circuitous trajectory.

In particular, Pakistan’s Babur and Raad cruise missiles represent a threat to India. Meanwhile, China’s cruise missile arsenal include the Seersucker, Silkworm, the ground launched DH-10 and the air-launched CJ-10, C-101 and HN series, to name a few. Some of China’s missiles are nuclear capable.

As it considers these weapons, one of the key questions that confronts New Delhi is whether it should opt solely for a cruise missile defense or also adopt a “deterrence by punishment” posture with the help of its own cruise missile arsenal. While a cruise missile defense could possibly intercept a subsonic cruise missile, it may be difficult to intercept supersonic cruise missiles and it is virtually impossible to intercept hypersonic cruise missiles. Although at present neither Pakistan nor China possess a hypersonic cruise missile, that could very well change. China already has supersonic cruise missiles such as the C-101 and C-301. Pakistan has also acquired the new CM-400 AKG, a supersonic cruise missile claimed to be hard to intercept because of its velocity.

For its part, India is currently working on a ballistic missile defense. India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation is developing a defense system with two layers, with Advanced Air Defence (AAD) as the first layer and the two-stage Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) as the second layer. However, neither PAD nor AAD would be able to intercept cruise missiles.

Using anti-air missiles of various ranges, it may still be possible to intercept supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles (although intercepting land-attack missiles remains a Herculean task). France, for instance, has been able to intercept supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles using its Principal Anti-Air Missile System. For it to replicate the feat, India would need an effective command, control, communication, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance system. Even with that, intercepting hypersonic cruise missiles would very likely remain unrealistic. Moreover, missiles with low radar signatures make the job of any air or missile defense system that much more difficult. Any surface-to-air missiles used would need to be highly sophisticated, with high-power large aperture radars, although even that might not be enough to intercept incoming threats. India could hope to defeat air-launched cruise missiles by destroying the aircraft that carry them. However, both Pakistan and China are developing stealth technology that could make it difficult for India to locate and destroy the aircraft before they fire.

Scorcher said...

Modi will attack, he has to, he has painted himself into a corner, just like Pakistan has done to itself, war is necessary and an inevitability.
Modi will never get re-elected if he does not declare war on Pakistan, we know we are going to have a war, the dust clouds will make this winter a global very long one. 

Riaz Haq said...

Scorcher: "Modi will attack, he has to, he has painted himself into a corner, just like Pakistan has done to itself, war is necessary and an inevitability.
Modi will never get re-elected if he does not declare war on Pakistan, we know we are going to have a war, the dust clouds will make this winter a global very long one"

If Modi is foolish enough to attack Pakistan, India will suffer a humiliating defeat with its crappy Arjun tanks overheating and junk Su-30s flown by Indian pilots prone to fratricide. So Modi and his fellow Hindu Nationalists face a bleak future either way.

Majumdar said...

Prof Riazul Haq sb,

I am surprised you dont like ModiGee at all. He is the "democratic" version of the authoritarian Asian leader that you crave for.


Anonymous said...

He is the "democratic" version of the authoritarian Asian leader that you crave for.

eggjactly.Basically Modi is India's Musharaf.He has absolute power inside BJP having sidelined the old guard.

The important difference which IMHO will make him much more effective:

1.India is starting from a MUCH HIGHER base than Musharaff did in 1999.(Tata alone generates more annual revenue than Pakistan's entire industrial output.There are many others RIL,AV Birla Group,L&T etc etc)

2. India's internal savings rate is >30% of 2 trillion USD GDP so a LOT more internal funds to play with.

3.HE has a united large support base.

4.He has extensive administrative experience as a 3 time Gujarat CM so the execution part of plans would be better.

Atri said...

India will never attack anyone unless it's attacked first. Right now we are trying to develop our nation in all sectors and any kind of large scale war will damage the economy. Modi is a very shrewed leader , he will not make any stupid move. Fire/Shell exchange in border is small thing but it will not led to serious war unless Pakistan attacks us in full force. Pakistan is now a failed state only because of their stupid leaders who blindly supported Uncle Sam and relied on them and fed the terrorists , now look where it got them after 68 years of Independance , a GDP lower than our Maharastra state, army dictated puppet govt. and poverty. India did increase it's defence but at the same time other sectors were not ignored which is why we are developing fast and made it to the 3rd largest economy , a global market. War is bad and India will try to stay out of it , unless you try to set foot on our land

Riaz Haq said...

Atri: "Atri: "Right now we are trying to develop our nation in all sectors and any kind of large scale war will damage the economy. Modi is a very shrewed leader , he will not make any stupid move."

Modi is using war rhetoric (boli naheen goli) to get out of a major bind he's in.

His Hindu Nationalists won't be satisfied and won't vote for him if he does not follow through on his rhetoric.

If he does attack Pakistan, India will be humiliated and its economy and industry devastated and he will lose the next election.

India's crappy overheating Arjun tanks and junk Su30MK1s (grounded for the umpteenth time) flown by fratricidal Indian pilots (as described by Americans at Red Flag Las Vegas) are enough to guarantee India's humiliating defeat by Pakistan with its superior armor and fighter jets.

He's put himself in a no-win situation.

GSLV said...

Indian Navy has aircraft carriers. Indian Navy will destroy Pak Navy and blockade Pakistan

Riaz Haq said...

GSLV: "Indian Navy has aircraft carriers. Indian Navy will destroy Pak Navy and blockade Pakistan"

What good is an aircraft carrier with no aircraft on it?

India does not have any fighter jets capable of flying missions from an aircraft carrier.

It will be sunk by Pak subs just as INS Khukri was sunk by PNS Hangor in 1971.

Anonymous said...

'What good is an aircraft carrier with no aircraft on it?

India does not have any fighter jets capable of flying missions from an aircraft carrier'


India has Mig 29 Ks which fly from INS Vikramaditya. 30 are carried by INS Vikramaditya.

India's aircraft carrier does't go around alone waiting to be sunk it like all ac carriers has a 10-15 ship+2-4 submarine battle group surrounding it.

Hopewins said...

^^RH on Oct 20:"Living in 1971 and trying to replicate it now would spell doom for India."

^^RH on Oct 26: "It will be sunk by Pak subs just as INS Khukri was sunk by PNS Hangor in 1971."

Please try to be consistent. Either you 'live in 1971' or you move on. Pick one and stick with it.

Riaz Haq said...

HW: "Please try to be consistent. Either you 'live in 1971' or you move on. Pick one and stick with it."

So in your view, a sub sinking a ship is the same as one country invading and occupying another country? Is that what you mean?

Riaz Haq said...

Excerpt From Op Ed by David Karl in The Diplomat: "3 Reasons Modi is Misguided on Pakistan"

In August, New Delhi abruptly cancelled foreign secretary-level talks on the grounds that the Pakistani ambassador had continued with the longstanding practice of meeting with Kashmiri separatists. This reaction may have been right in principle. But in practical terms, it amounted to a demand that Pakistan – which draws much of its national identity from the Kashmir conflict – make a significant diplomatic concession without receiving anything of importance in return. This was certainly no deal that any civilian government in Islamabad could accept as the price for merely beginning a conversation with Modi’s team, much less one that was then embroiled in a deep political crisis at home and uncertain of the military leadership’s allegiances.
Indeed, the Indian government is in danger of becoming captive to its hawkish rhetoric. Defense Minister Jaitley emphasizes that “Of course we can talk to Pakistan, but it is up to Pakistan to create an atmosphere for talks.” Given the turmoil inside Pakistan, it will be difficult to start any sort of meaningful dialogue with Islamabad as long as that condition is strictly insisted upon.

A third problem is even more fundamental. Mr. Modi appears to believe he can revitalize India’s great-power prospects without the trouble of reaching a basic accommodation with Pakistan. Yet New Delhi’s continuous ructions with Islamabad have constantly proven vexatious to its larger ambitions. They sap precious national resources (including the armed forces) and divert the attention of those leaders who prefer to look to larger arenas. They also create a paradox: India yearns for a place in the first ranks of world power and yet cannot establish much sway over its own neighbors. Despite the common civilizational and historical links that permeate South Asia, New Delhi has been unable to integrate the region in the same way that Beijing has economically stitched together the much more culturally diverse and geographically disperse East Asian area.

Ignoring Pakistan may well score short-term political points at home but it is a poor strategy for the longer-term items on Mr. Modi’s agenda.

Crafting the right blend of deterrence credibility and substantive engagement with rival states is a hard task for any government. But so far, the Modi government seems fixated one objective while paying little heed to the other.

Riaz Haq said...

The State Department has made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to Pakistan for GRC43M Cutters and associated equipment parts training and logistical support for an estimated cost of 350 million.

The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) delivered the required certification notifying Congress of this possible sale this week with a statement stressing that the sale will help improve the security of a country vital to U.S. foreign policy and national security goals in South Asia.

Pakistan has requested the purchase of 8, 43 meter Global Response Cutters (GRC43M).

Each Cutter will be a mono hull design made of Glass Reinforced Plastic (GRP). Also included in this sale outfitted 8, 25mm or 30mm Naval Gun Systems 32 M2 HB .50 caliber machine guns 32, 7.62mm guns 8, 8 meter Rigid Inflatable Boats ballistic armor protection of critical spaces command and control equipment, communication equipment, navigation equipment, support equipment, spare and repair parts tools and test equipment, technical data and publications, personnel training U.S. government and contractor engineering technical and logistics support services and other related elements of logistics and program support.

The total estimated cost is 350 million.

This proposed sale will contribute to the foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security of a country vital to U.S. foreign policy and national security goals in South Asia the DSCA said in a statement.

This sale will enhance Pakistan’s ability to enforce the rule of law over its coastal areas to safeguard seaborne energy corridors deter the outbreak of piracy along the north Arabian Sea and curtail the trafficking of narcotics and other illicit goods.

These vessels provide the Pakistan Navy with the capability for medium to long endurance coverage of its 660 miles of coastline.

Pakistan will have no difficulty absorbing GRC43M Cutters into its armed forces.

This sale will not alter the basic military balance in the region, the DSCA said. (APP)

Riaz Haq said...

The Government of Pakistan has requested a possible sale of up to 36 F-16C/D Block 50/52 external link aircraft – a buy of 18 jets, with an option for another 18. The planes would be equipped with the APG-68(V)9 radars, which are the most modern F-16 radar except for the UAE’s F-16E/F Block 60 “Desert Falcons” and their AN/APG-80 AESA. The engine contract was less certain. Pakistan’s existing F-16s use the Pratt & Whitney F100 engine, but the new planes involved a competition between Pratt & Whitney’s F100-PW-229 external link or General Electric’s F110-GE-129 external link Increased Performance Engines (IPEs).

The total value, if all options are exercised, was estimated as high as $3 billion, which is in line with Pentagon releases that eventually peg the negotiated cost of 12 F-16Cs, 6 F-16Ds, and ancillary equipment at $1.4 billion. Pratt & Whitney kept their customer, and supplied the new jets with their F100-PW-229 EEP engine, making them all F-16 Block 52s. The package for Pakistan’s new F-16s included:

7 spare F100-PW-229 EEP or F110-GE-129 IPE engines (F100-PW-229 EEP selected)
7 spare APG-68(V)9 radar sets external link
36 Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing Systems (JHMCS)
36 AN/ARC-238 SINCGARS radios with HAVE QUICK I/II
36 Conformal Fuel Tanks (pairs) that fit along the aircraft’s sides to give them extra range
36 Link-16 Multifunctional Information Distribution System-Low Volume Terminals; see tactical uses of MIDS-LVT Link 16 systems
36 Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Embedded GPS/Inertial Navigation Systems
36 APX-113 Advanced Identification Friend or Foe Systems
36 Advanced Integrated Defensive Electronic Warfare Suites: ALQ-211 AIDEW without Digital Radio Frequency Memory (picked); or AN/ALQ-184 Electronic Counter Measures pod without DRFM; or AN/ALQ-131 Electronic Counter Measures pod without DRFM; or AN/ALQ-187 Advanced Self-Protection Integrated Suites without DRFM; or AN/ALQ-178 Self-Protection Electronic Warfare Suites without DRFM.
1 Unit Level Trainer
Associated support equipment, software development/integration, modification kits, capability to employ a wide variety of munitions, spares and repair parts, flight test instrumentation, publications and technical documentation, CONUS-personnel training and training equipment, U.S. Government and contractor technical and logistics personnel services, and other related requirements to ensure full program supportability.

To equip those new F-16s, the Government of Pakistan has requested a possible sale of:

500 AIM-120C5 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM)
12 AMRAAM training missiles – these have seeker warheads but lack engines
200 AIM-9M-8/9 Sidewinder Short-Range Air-Air Missiles; they are the version before the fifth-generation AIM-9X.
240 LAU-129/A Launchers – these support AMRAAM or Sidewinder missiles.
500 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) Guidance Kits: GBU-31/38 Guided Bomb Unit (GBU) kits
1,600 Enhanced Paveway GBU-12 (500 lb.) and GBU-24s (2,000 lb.) with dual laser/GPS guidance
800 MK-82 500 pound General Purpose (GP) and MK-84 2,000 pound GP bombs
700 BLU-109 2,000 pound bunker-buster external link bombs with the FMU-143 Fuse

Irfan said...

In the naval department, Pakistan can do the sensible thing that the Russians have done, and quite exceptionally. Instead of trying to match India, ship for ship, they should invest in missile technology, given the resource crunch. Missiles-particularly sea skimming cruise missiles, have remained under-rated so far, but they can spring a surprise in any naval engagement, and turn out to be game changers. Missiles are the weapons of choice in future wars, in the recent American-Iranian showdown in the Hormuz, US had to pretty much back out to the Iranian response.

Anonymous said...

As u say sir two different types of fighter jets (sukhoi 30 MKI is air superiority fighter with Multirole fighter aircraft ) is comparing lion with cat. and also our two aircraft carrier equipped fighters like upgraded su 29, sea harrier ,sea king is able to destroy Pakistan main airports and harbor. so compare to navy their no match to Indian navy. in air force again 2:1 favor to India and also advanced fighters. so compare army again pakistan playing proxy war with india why ?
because they not directly face indian army as fighting replaythey face in all war they know what kind of power IA having so they create militant and send to india to fight. so why this happening because MODI fever in high over world (even china) so pakistan is fear to go in war against india and lose all they made so they having only two way to go one go to UN (US) and make some noise or China (but china is having good trade relation with india in MODI vist they do not want to lose it ).so finaly MODI IS MODI they made us all indian proud. as pakistan thought they can play war with india again is war is not that he play in history pakistan want pay big big so big ammount to this ware so.shut ur mouth and make progress towards terrorist free pakistan.

Riaz Haq said...

The annual APEC summit is underway in Beijing. Perhaps the most notable absentee is India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who received an unprecedented invitation in July from Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend the gathering. Despite growing to become the world’s third largest economy in PPP terms, India is not a member of APEC, and as a result would not normally attend the summit. But this year President Xi used his platform as the summit host to extend invitations to non-members India, Pakistan, and Mongolia. While Pakistan and Mongolia’s leaders made the trip to Beijing for APEC, Prime Minister Modi decided not to do so. It’s a missed opportunity for India’s economic diplomacy at a time it could use a boost.

Riaz Haq said...

61% in #Pakistan view #India negatively. #SaudiArabia, #China viewed positively by 71%, 58%

India and Pakistan have been at loggerheads for over half-a-century now, resulting in four wars, countless skirmishes, tenuous negotiations, occasional displays of trust and everything in between.

Despite the endless cycle of aggression and finger-pointing, there has been a fascinating change in how the average Pakistani has come to view India. Compared to 30-odd years ago, few Pakistani’s expect India to use a nuclear weapon—and more want the vexed Kashmir issue revolved without conflict.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan is in the process of retrofitting its 50 Chengdu/Pakistan Aeronautical Complex JF-17 fighters to an improved Block II configuration.

The new configuration features improved avionics and better software, and adds a fixed air-to-air refuelling probe, says Air Cdre Khalid Mahmood, chief executive of JF-17 sales and marketing.

Mahmood spoke to Flightglobal at the Pakistan booth at Airshow China in Zhuhai. He was part of a 20-strong delegation from Pakistan, which also brought a single JF-17 to appear in the static display
Pakistan brought large contingents to the 2010 and 2012 shows, which included three JF-17s, transport aircraft and the nation’s display team. Mahmood scotched speculation that the pared-down presence reflects any change in Pakistan/China relations.He says the two countries still have an excellent working relationship, and notes that Pakistan sent a squadron of 18 JF-17s to a recent air combat exercise in western China.

Given the small size of the combat fighter, a fixed refuelling probe was found to be preferable to a retracting one. Pakistan uses the Ilyushin Il-78 to provide air-to-air refuelling for its fleet.

In December, Pakistan will begin taking delivery of 50 JF-17s configured in the Block II configuration. Beyond this, its air force has options to take its fleet of the type up to 150 or 200 aircraft. Additional improvements are foreseen in a planned Block III upgrade.

Mahmood adds that the air force is satisfied with the fighter's Klimov RD-93 engine. The powerplant can currently be operated for up to 800 flight hours between overhauls, but there is an effort under way to improve this.Mahmood reveals that the type has seen combat in western Pakistan, where it has employed both guided and unguided munitions.

Riaz Haq said...

From Business Insider:

Pakistan successfully tested an intermediate-range ballistic missile today with an impact point in the Persian Gulf. The newly tested version of the Shaheen-II ballistic missile, which is roughly equivalent to the US's Pershing II missiles, can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads according to ISPR, the Pakistani army's public relations arm.

The announcement seems to confirm expert analysis that the country is aiming to build long-range delivery systems for tactical nuclear weapons — smaller warheads built for use in a battlefield or active combat scenario, rather than for strikes on cities or infrastructure.

Addressing scientists, engineers, and military officers viewing the test site, lieutenant general Zubair Mahmood Hayat still reiterated Pakistan's stance that the goal of its strides in ballistic capability is deterrence — presumably against any rash military action by India, with which Pakistan has a number of outstanding territorial and security-related disputes.

Pakistani news media put the range of the Shaheen-II at 1,500 kilometers, though the Federation of American Scientists estimates it may be able to travel 2,000 kilometers or more depending on its payload. One Indian television news program included a map showing the several India's cities that fall within the missile's now-proven range.

The test is the latest development in a long-running arms race between Pakistan and its neighbor.

In 1999 Pakistan tested a shorter-ranged Shaheen missile that was also capable of carrying nuclear weapons. After that test, Pakistan's officials cited a concern for preserving "strategic balance in south Asia" — an objective that has India, Pakistan's larger, more populous, more powerful, and also nuclear-armed rival, squarely in mind.

The missile program has established that strategic balance with India, Arif Rafiq, a researcher at the Middle East Institute, told Business Insider in September.

"Since India and Pakistan tested nuclear weapons in 1998, there has been a greater level of restraint in terms of the behavior of both countries when it comes to war," Rafiq said. "But at the same time they also taken great measures to build up their nuclear arsenal and further develop or strengthen or diversify their launch capability."

While nuclear development continues, India and Pakistan have become the world's first and third largest arms importers, respectively.

Riaz Haq said...

Russia to sell Mi-35 helicopters to Pakistan

ISLAMABAD - Russia will trade Mi-35 helicopters with Pakistan to strengthen its counterterrorism efforts. Talking to the State-run radio, Ambassador of the Russian Federation Alexey Dedov said the deal between Pakistan and Russia will help combat terrorism.
He said politically the deal has been approved, however, further negotiations on details of political-commercial contract are in progress.
The Ambassador also said that Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu will soon visit Islamabad and his agenda of talks with Pakistani counterparts also includes the sale of defence equipments to Pakistan.
Regarding Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), Alexey Dedov said Russia is actively involved in the process of accession of Pakistan to the organisation as a full member. He hoped that at next Summit meeting, scheduled to take place in July next year in Russia, full member status will be awarded to Pakistan.
He said that documentary work in this regard has already been completed.
He said Russia intends to resolve Afghan conflict during its Chairmanship of SCO.
He expressed the hope to succeed in bringing sustainable peace in the region through concerted and collaborative efforts of Afghanistan and the countries of the region. Russia and Pakistan are already engaged on the matter and fruitful meetings have taken place recently in this regard, he said.
He said besides terrorism, drug trafficking which stems from Afghanistan is also an area of concern. Ambassador Dedov said Russia fully supports Chinese plan of developing Silk Route, which also includes China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
He said that Russia is interested in various energy related projects including CASA-1000, development of Gwadar Liquefying Facility and construction of pipeline between Gwadar and Nawabshah.
The Russian Ambassador said Pak-Russia Intergovernmental Commission's meeting is scheduled to take place in Moscow on 26th of this month, which will give new impetus to our bilateral economic cooperation.
He said bilateral trade volume of the two countries does not coincide with the actual potential and plenty of room exists which needs to be tapped.
He said a Russian Parliamentary delegation is also ready to participate in Asian Parliamentary Assembly meeting in Lahore.

Riaz Haq said...

From IHS Jane's 360:

Russia has "politically approved" a deal for Moscow to sell a batch of Mil Mi-35 'Hind E' heavy attack helicopters to Pakistan, Russia's ambassador told Radio Pakistan, the state owned broadcaster, on 12 November.

Although Alexey Dedov did not reveal the number of platforms under discussion, a senior Pakistani government official confirmed to IHS Jane's that the purchase of up to 20 helicopters was under discussion. "This is a big breakthrough for Pakistan. Russia has decided to ignore India's pressure and proceed with this deal with Pakistan," said the official.

Pakistan has previously been discouraged from securing any major defence contracts with Russia due to objections from India, which is one of Moscow's most important arms customers.

"Times have changed. The Russians have realised that Pakistan genuinely needs this equipment for a very legitimate reason," said the Pakistani government official. Since June, the Pakistan Army has relied in part on Mil Mi-17 'Hip' helicopters in its military campaign against the Taliban in the north Waziristan region along the Afghan border.

Analysts said the Pakistan Army, which is the defence forces' main helicopter operator, has chosen the Mi-35 because of its satisfaction with Russian helicopters that it has used previously, notably the Mi-17. Pakistan first received Mi-17s in 1994; most recently the United States donated four reconditioned platforms in 2009.

"Our helicopter pilots are very comfortable with Russian helicopters. We have chosen the Mi-35 based on our prior experience with Russian helicopters, which has been very good" said retired Brigadier Farooq Hameed Khan, a former senior

Pakistan Army officer who trained as a helicopter pilot.

In recent years, Pakistani officials have become increasingly confident over prospects for future purchase of Russia's military hardware. For example, the JF-17 'Thunder' fighter, which is co-produced by the Pakistan Air Force and China's Chengdu Aviation Corporation, is powered by the Russian-manufactured RD-93 engine.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Haq,

You are missing the point here. India may be testing the nuclear threshold of Pakistan. Its politically far too costly for any political party to idly sit by while Mumbai like terrorist operations are orchestrated. Any Government of the day has to be seen doing something about....Congress party did a bad job, had no strategic bearings.

My guess is Modi government wants to test how far the nuclear threshold that Pakistan so often threatens to unleash can stretch. Without knowing the limits of this threshold Modi government may not be able to manoeuvre a short but punitive action against Pakistani non-state / state sponsored actors. BJP not reacting to terror strikes will cost it politically. Also I think the strategy is to make terror ventures unsustainable.

If Modi succeeds it will lead to peace but tenuous at best. I call it tenuous because, settling Kashmir means - giving up territory, thats what Pakistan wants change in status-quo, which no Indian government can ever do.


Riaz Haq said...

Russia and Pakistan on Thursday signed their very first military cooperation agreement and laid out future avenues of cooperation, ending years of division over Islamabad's close military ties with the U.S. and Moscow's with India.

Sergei Shoigu, the first Russian defense minister to visit Pakistan since 1969, characterized his meeting with counterpart Khawaja Asif as an important step in strengthening ties between Moscow and Islamabad.

"During the meeting we agreed that bilateral military cooperation should take on a more practical orientation and enhance the combat capability of our armed forces," news agency TASS quoted Shoigu as saying after the meeting.

Although the concrete terms of the agreement are not publicly known, Shoigu said joint naval exercises will be a key feature of future cooperation with Pakistan, as well as military officer exchanges, arms sales and counternarcotics and counterterrorism cooperation.

Behind the scenes, Shoigu may have been negotiating an important sale of Mi-35 transport helicopters to Pakistan, Yury Barmin, an expert on Russian arms sales, told The Moscow Times.

Russia approved the delivery of 20 Mi-35s to Pakistan in November, but the details still have to be negotiated, "which is probably one of the reasons why Shoigu is traveling to Pakistan a week after this informal approval was issued by Moscow," Barmin said.

But more important than specific defense contracts are Russia's growing strategic interests in the region, driven by security concerns shared with Pakistan — such as instability in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of U.S. troops and counterterrorism and counternarcotics efforts.

Nonetheless, Moscow will play it safe to ensure that its moves do not anger India, Russia's main strategic partner in the region, said Pyotr Topychkanov, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Regional Interests
India last year purchased $3.8 billion worth of Russian arms — far ahead of the $981 million worth it purchased from the U.S., according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Last year Russia's recorded exports to Pakistan were much more limited, valued at a mere $22 million, according to SIPRI. The total sum is somewhat higher than this, as Russia also sells arms to Pakistan through China.

Shared security interests are also drawing Pakistan and Russia closer together, as evidenced by Shoigu's announcement that joint military exercises and security cooperation will become a routine feature of their bilateral relationship.

"The main purpose of these exercises is to share experience in counterterrorism, counternarcotics and anti-piracy," Topychkanov said.

According to Barmin, the key concern driving Moscow to court Islamabad is the alarming flow of narcotics out of Afghanistan.

"Forty percent of Afghan drugs travel by sea, and a lot of it ends up in Russian ports," Barmin said.

Also at play is Pakistan and India's possible ascension next year to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, an economic and military organization comprising Russia, China and several other Central Asian states.

"In the run-up to the SCO's summit in Ufa in July 2015, Russia will be courting the two countries … and will avoid doing controversial things, such as active defense cooperation with Islamabad," Barmin said.

Riaz Haq said...

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has received into service 'a squadron' of Lockheed Martin F-16 fighter aircraft from the Royal Jordanian Air Force (RJAF), a senior PAF service official disclosed on 19 November.

Speaking under the Chatham House Rule at the IQPC Fighter Conference in London, the officer said that the F-16A/B fighters had recently arrived in Pakistan, and will be used to augment the PAF's existing F-16 fleet, which is heavily involved in counterinsurgency operations along the country's border area with Afghanistan.

"Recently a squadron of used F-16A/Bs have been procured from Jordan to take some of the load off our other F-16s, which are undertaking numerous tasks in the 'law enforcement' operations. The F-16s are supporting our ongoing law enforcement efforts on our western border. We are not using [attack] helicopters, but are using F-16s to stop the terrorists," he said.

The purchase of surplus RJAF F-16s was first mooted in February, with deliveries commencing in April. At that time, a PAF official confirmed to IHS Jane's that it was to receive 12 F-16A and 1 F-16B Block 15 aircraft to increase the size of its fast jet fleet. Although designated Block 15s, all of these aircraft have undergone mid-life upgrades, although details have not been released.

IHS Jane's understands that these former Jordanian aircraft have been assigned to 19 Squadron at PAF base Mushaf (Sarghoda).

When the deal for the surplus Jordanian aircraft was disclosed earlier in the year, the PAF stated that it had also approached at least two other countries for additional F-16s. The status of these discussions is unclear.

Prior to the Jordanian deal, the PAF fielded 12 F-16C and 6 F-16D Block 50/52 jets, and between 45 and 50 F-16A/B aircraft. These earlier aircraft have now all been upgraded to Block 52 standard by Turkish Aerospace Industries in Ankara.

Riaz Haq said...

India conducted a nuclear test centuries ago; cow urine can cure diabetes and ancient India was adept at genetics and plastic surgery. These and more such incredible achievements datelined ancient India have come from votaries of Hindu culture.

If people with scientific temper are reaching boiling point, in the absence of technology to go back in time to ancient India for verification trips, little noise is being heard from their quarters.

Here is a sample of what is being claimed as 'Indian science'.

Nuking reason
The world acknowledges India has conducted two sets nuclear tests: in 1974 and 1998. Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank, BJP MP from Haridwar and former Uttarakhand chief minister, disagrees. "Today we are talking about nuclear tests. Lakhs of years ago, Sage Kanad had conducted a nuclear test. Our knowledge and science do not lack anything," Nishank told Parliament. Nishank also batted for astrology, saying it is the topmost science in the world. He said our ancient astrologers dwarfed all other sciences.

Cow urine therapy

Promoting cow urine is a priority for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), seen as the BJP's spiritual and ideological guide. It was reported in May that Madhya Pradesh-based promoters of medicines produced using cow urine or 'gau-mutra' hope that a BJP government at the Centre will help their business.

The RSS is keen on promoting a soft drink made from cow's urine, mixed with products such as aloe vera and gooseberry to fight diseases. "Cow urine offers a cure for around 70 to 80 incurable diseases like diabetes. All are curable by cow urine," said Om Prakash, head of the RSS's cow protection department, in 2009.

Faith in astrology
Union HRD Minister Smriti Irani will one day be the country's president: that prediction came from the BJP politician's astrologer in Bhilwara, Rajasthan. "She will become president... in five years," the astrologer told reporters last month after Irani's visit. Irani was asked about her faith in astrology when she is in charge of education. "What I am doing in my personal life is not the responsibility of media to report until and unless it affects my duties," she replied.

Karna a product of genetic engineering

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speaking at the inauguration of a hospital in Mumbai in October, equated birth of Mahabharata's Karna to genetic engineering. He said, "We can feel proud of what our country achieved in medical science at one point of time. We all read about Karna in Mahabharata. If we think a little more, we realise that Mahabharata says Karna was not born from his mother's womb. This means that genetic science was present at that time. That is why Karna could be born outside his mother's womb."

Ganesha plastic surgery

At the same event, Modi also said, "We worship Lord Ganesha. There must have been some plastic surgeon at that time who got an elephant's head on the body of a human being and began the practice of plastic surgery."

Dinanath Batra claims stem cell research invented by an Indian

In his book Tejomay Bharat, Dinanath Batra, convenor of Shiksha Bachao Andolan Samiti, claimed stem cell research was invented by an Indian, Dr Ganpat Matapurkar, who was inspired by the Mahabharata.

Sanal Edamaruku, president of Indian Rationalist Association, said people need to differentiate between "myth and reality. "Myths are there in all parts of the world and in all cultures; if we can't differentiate myth and reality, something is seriously wrong," said Edamaruku in an e-mail from Helsinki.

Article 51A of the Constitution says Indian citizens have the duty to 'develop the scientific temper, humanism and the spirit of inquiry and reform'. It's an article that our elected representatives must remember--they are sworn to uphold the Constitution.

nishant said...

I have seen many of your posts on India and it seems you think India is land of beggars and can be a pushover for Pakistan ,I really pity your commonsense after knowing that you are highly educated person

Riddhi5879 said...

The way you describe it looks to me that you are afraid of India and you are the main policy maker in Pakistan establishment the reality is Pakistan is beggar country with no self-respect with no farsightedness. US has already raped your country and now you are getting used to it that is way you are now letting china rape you too. Boosting about weapons will not make you strong country your people will die hunger one day as you do not have anything other left your leaders are jokes of the world your army general is nothing but a beggar with bowl in his hand in front of America if you are so powerful why are you running to China and America and other big countries. We do not produce anything which we should be in owe

Riddhi5879 said...

Pakistan is nothing the reality is Pakistan is 8th most dangerous country in the world and exporter of terrorism in the world no tourist comes to Pakistan no body in the world likes Pakistan. No country wants to invest in Pakistan barring
China for its own strategic benefit no good for Pakistan. India is emerging power Our IIT & IIM are the best in the world. Our AIIMS in Delhi the best medial college. In our country no body talks about Army and Army generals as it is done in Pakistan. Pakistan Army is such a worthless thing which has already destroyed Pakistan by its wrong policy it is the biggest terrorist organization in the world

Riaz Haq said...


Nuclear weapons and the debate over the necessity for such weapons have persisted for several years. As opinions against nuclear weapons increase, so too do more and more countries yearn to possess these weapons and demonstrate their power. This means that we have to discover those benefits which are of such significance that a country prefers to divert a huge portion of its finances from public sector to become a nuclear capable state.

The rational for Pakistan to develop a nuclear weapon was so that the country could have the self-reliance to ensure its security. After the hefty losses in the wars of 1948 and 1965, and the debacle of 1971, Pakistani leadership understood that none of the great powers were going to support Pakistan in times of crisis against any Indian aggression. Therefore self-reliance was the crucial idea of Pakistan’s policy makers to make sure that only Pakistan should be responsible for defending their country against any Indian offensive. In this regard, we must understand that being a nuclear power is crucial for Pakistan’s survival and sovereignty. Preserving and improving national security is vital to the national interest, and expenses from the state budget in support of this objective are permissible.

For a country like Pakistan, having nuclear weapons means that it has the ultimate strategic defense. Wars are bad for the economy and nuclear deterrence is a best tool to avoid wars. A short conventional war between India and Pakistan would cost Islamabad U.S. $ 350 million per day. Now one can easily estimate the economic deprivation if Pakistan had to face another 1971 debacle without having any nuclear weapons. In contrast, to conventional warfare, nuclear deterrence has made wars between nuclear states rationally non-viable.

In this regard, the possession of nuclear weapons serves not only military and political purposes, but also economic functions. The acquisition of nuclear weapons appears to be associated with the long-term decline in conventional military spending. This is acutely accurate in the case of Pakistan. Pakistan’s conventional military expenditure has been constantly on decline since the nuclear tests. Military expenditure (% of GDP) in Pakistan was measured at 5.3 % in 1998, according to the World Bank. In 2012 that expenditure was 3.13 %. This is a clear instance where nuclear capability served as a major cause to diminish military expenditure in Pakistan.

Riaz Haq said...

This test means the Hatf/Vengeance VIII Ra'ad (Thunder) has now been officially tested five times since 2007. It is generally comparable to the Anglo/French Storm Shadow or US AGM-158 joint air-to-surface standoff missile, but exact specifications are not available.

Analyst, author and former Air Commodore Kaiser Tufail said, "The test firing was a typical combo of a technical upgrade timed with political signaling, something that both India and Pakistan have turned into an art form."

Mansoor Ahmed, lecturer in the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at Islamabad's Quaid-e-Azam University, who specializes in Pakistan's nuclear program and its delivery systems, said the test was not in answer to India's test-firing of its Agni V intermediate range ballistic missile.

The Agni V was test fired on Saturday.

"I am not sure if this is a tit-for-tat response," he said. "The fact that it is a 350 kilometer vs. a 5,000-8,000 kilometer test reflects Pakistan's emphasis on credible minimum deterrence with only an India-centric posture, while India is clearly moving far beyond the requirements of a minimum deterrent driven by global power projection ambitions."

Instead, he believes the test was part of ongoing efforts on "improving the effectiveness and validating the enhanced operational parameters of existing delivery systems that comprise the country's nascent triad."

He added, "Ra'ad and the land and sea versions of the Babur cruise missiles offer diversification in targeting options, greater operational and deployable flexibility and increase the overall survivability of its deterrent force."

He says the two cruise missiles are especially important for Pakistan's nascent "posture of full spectrum deterrence with added emphasis on counter-value targeting to offset India's strategic and conventional force modernization," which are integral aspects of India's "emerging proactive operations strategy."

Ra'ad is claimed to be operational, but is such a critical weapon it is still somewhat cloaked in secrecy.

Ahmed, however, said Ra'ad may have "finally matured as an operational and deployable system," but "this might also be a batch test coupled with the possible completion/accomplishment of required miniaturization of suitable warheads for this system. Hence this test."

He believes that aside from technical improvements, the timing is significant in terms of its non-conventional strike capabilities.

"Range remains the same; the only thing that might have improved is accuracy, guidance and control parameters, etc. Also this test comes at a time when plutonium production for miniaturized warheads is meeting the operational requirements, with the commissioning of the fourth production reactor at Khushab," he said.

Despite being described as a conventional and non-conventional weapon, analysts like Tufail are unconvinced Ra'ad can effectively be employed by Pakistan in the conventional role.

"Platforms like the Ra'ad have limited use as conventional weapons launching platforms, because a payload of 450-kilograms [at best] can do little harm unless launched in a shower of a few score, something that would be outrageously costly," he said.

"Glide bombs are an economical choice for stand-off delivery of conventional weapons," he added.

Indeed, Pakistan does seem to have made further steps in this regard and showcased the latest of its glide bombs, the Global Industrial Defence Solutions' 'Takbir', at December's IDEAS2014 defense exhibition.

The Ra'ad has been tested on the Mirage III strike aircraft, but it is unknown if it has been integrated onto Pakistan's F-16s.

Tufail said it is more likely the JF-17 will be the next delivery platform.

Riaz Haq said...

India’s air force risks a major capability gap opening up with China and Pakistan without new western warplanes or if local defence contractors can’t produce what the military needs in a timely manner.
A 2012 agreement to buy 126 Rafale fighters from France’s Dassault Aviation has stalled due to a dispute over the assembly of the aircraft in India. India’s first homegrown fighter, the Tejas light combat aircraft, will finally be delivered next month, 30 years after it was conceived.
But senior air force officers privately said they were unimpressed, with one former officer, an ex-fighter pilot, saying the plane was “so late it is obsolete”.
While India’s navy is undergoing an accelerated modernisation drive, experts said India was vulnerable in the skies because of its reliance on a disparate fleet of ageing Russian-made MiG and French Mirage fighters, along with more modern Russian Sukhoi Su-30s. But half of India’s fighters are due to retire beginning this year until 2024.
“It could lead to humiliation at the hands of our neighbours,” AK Sachdev, a retired air force officer, wrote last year in the Indian Defence Review journal. A coordinated attack by China and arch-rival Pakistan could stretch the Indian military, he added.
It’s a scenario defence strategists in New Delhi have been asked to plan for, Indian air force sources say, although experts say such an event is highly unlikely to happen, primarily due to nuclear weapons owned by all three.
India’s ties with China, though warm in recent times, are still hamstrung by a dispute over their Himalayan border that led to war in 1962. New Delhi is also wary of China’s expanding naval presence in the Indian Ocean and its close relations with Pakistan.
Multiple crashes
India’s air force has 34 operational squadrons, down from 39 earlier this decade and below the government approved strength of 42, a parliamentary committee said in December. In 2012, the then defence minister had said that more than half of India’s MiG fighters had crashed and burned.
In this time, however, China has managed to project its military power, by exponentially ramping up its defence budget and boosting production capability in all areas, particularly aerial. It is flying locally built fourth-generation J-10 fighters and is testing two fifth-generation stealth fighter jets.
On the Western front, Pakistan is upgrading its Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters as well as using JF-17 warplanes developed with China. To replace and upgrade its fleet of ageing Mirages and F-7Ps, Pakistan is also in talks with China to buy J-10s.
But India still maintains an edge over Pakistan – the sheer size of its air force. But the slow modernisation means victory would come with heavy casualties, said Richard Aboulafia, Washington DC-based vice president of analysis at the Teal Group, an aerospace and defence think tank.
So far, India has bought more Su-30s and upgrading other existing fighters to keep itself in the game. Though keeping up may soon be no longer enough.
“We do need to increase our defence preparedness,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi told the opening ceremony of the Aero India airshow in the city of Bengaluru on Wednesday.
Tejas criticism unfounded
K Tamilmani, a senior official at the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), a defence ministry agency which designed and developed the plane brushed aside criticism of the light aircraft.
In this regard, the best hope for India is its Tejas Mark II, a slightly larger plane than the original, which will feature more powerful engines, better radars and upgraded avionics.
India is also looking to add trainer jets, light transport aircraft and helicopter to its list of indigenous defence programmes. “People who fly planes, want the best value for money, which means off-the-shelf,” said Aboulafia. “People who want jobs and technology development schemes have different priorities. That’s why the two groups don’t like each other much.”

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan air force today inducted the advanced China-built Karakoram Eagle AWACS aircraft, capable of detecting hostile aerial and sea surface targets far before ground-based radars regardless of their height.

Pakistan Air Force (PAF) said the new aircraft were inducted into its premier No 4 Squadron at ceremony held at an operational PAF base in Karachi.

"With the addition of AWACS, Pakistan air defence is now able to look deeper in enemy territory, be it land or sea," the air force said.

The Karakorum Eagle Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) can detect aerial as well as sea surface targets at a fairly long distance regardless of their height, it said.

The aircraft maintains link with ground command and control centres to provide comprehensive air picture.

"After an early detection, AWACS can direct own fighter aircraft to intercept or neutralise the emerging threat, well before it can threaten our national assets. AWACS ability of detecting sea targets would also enhance the capabilities of Pakistan Navy," it said.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who was the chief guest at the induction ceremony, said the PAF has always proved equal to the task even in the most challenging times and has measured up to the expectations of the nation.


Air Chief Marshal Tahir Rafique Butt termed the induction a significant moment for the PAF.

"Re-equipping the Squadron with this state-of-the-art aircraft will enable PAF to effectively counter all threats against Pakistan's aerial frontiers and add a new dimension to the National security," he said.

"Induction of Karakoram Eagle AWACS would revolutionise PAF's operational concepts. With its induction, PAF is transforming into a modern versatile and capability based force," Butt said.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan's Air Force (PAF) Thursday stood up its unit of Chinese Karakorum Eagle AEW&C aircraft in a ceremony attended by the head of the PAF, Air Chief Marshal Tahir Rafiq Butt, and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

Though the exact location of the ceremony was not given, it is believed to have been held at PAF Base Masroor in Karachi as the prime minister was known to have been in the city that day.

Brian Cloughley, an analyst and former Australian defense attache to Islamabad, said AEW&C "is very good news for the PAF – and for Pakistan" because it "will dramatically improve early warning capabilities which up until now have been comparatively rudimentary."

The ZDK-03 Karakorum Eagle is a dish-based AEW&C system mounted on a Shaanxi Y-8F600 aircraft. Though never confirmed, it has been speculated that the dish houses an AESA antenna.

Four were ordered in 2008 with the first delivered in 2010.

Air Commodore Syed Muhammad Ali, a spokesman for the Air Force, confirmed all Karakorum Eagle aircraft on order have now been delivered, but could not say if more would be ordered from China.

The aircraft join No.4 Squadron, which was first established in 1959 with Bristol Freighter transports and Grumman HU-16 Albatross amphibians. The amphibians were used for maritime reconnaissance, search and rescue, and casualty evacuation alongside Sikorsky H-19D helicopters. The HU-16s were retired in 1968 and the H-19Ds in 1969.

The unit was then "number-plated" until officially re-equipped with the Karakorum Eagle.

The four Karakorum Eagle AEW&C aircraft join the surviving three Saab Erieye AEW&C aircraft ordered in 2005 and delivered from 2009. One of the four Erieye aircraft was destroyed in a terrorist attack on Kamra Air Base in August 2012.

That the Air Force operates two types of AEW&C aircraft for the same mission has been much commented on.

Analyst Usman Shabbir of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank says the Karakorum Eagle's mission is "[b]asically the same job as Erieye but based in southern sector.

"To cover all the length of Pakistan we needed additional AEW&C aircraft and ZDK-03 was the answer due to political and financial considerations," he said.

Former Air Commodore Kaiser Tufail says the PAF was not keen on their purchase.

"The [Karakorum] Eagle was purchased rather reluctantly, under pressure of [then President] Gen. Musharraf, as a political expedient [Chinese appeasement], and not because of any reasons of technical superiority," he said. "It would have been more cost effective to manage a single type than these two vastly different ones."

Though he now believes attitudes have changed.

"Having said that, the performance of the Eagle has turned out to be surprisingly good, which takes some sting out of the initial criticism," he said.

Tufail says an absence of news of the fourth aircraft being delivered may mean it is undergoing installation of Link 16 datalink equipment to enable it to communicate with all of the PAF's aircraft, particularly its F-16s, and not just the JF-17 Thunders.

To date the Erieye AEW&C aircraft have been able to communicate with the Western aircraft in service such as the F-16, and the Karakorum Eagle with the Chinese aircraft such as the Sino-Pak JF-17, and perhaps the F-7PG.

Riaz Haq said...

‪#‎Indian‬ Army plan 'was leaked to ‪#‎Pakistan‬ last year by ‪#‎ISI‬ mole' Pakistan Army countered quickly. via Grocott's Mail Online
It was noticed that within a few hours, the Pakistan Army had begun redeploying its troops to counter the Indian plan.
Alarm bells started ringing in the Indian Army about the shocking “leak”. The Army chief immediately informed the defence minister, who then briefed then prime minister Manmohan Singh.
A meeting of the Army top brass was later held with Manmohan Singh, who visited the DGMO war room. The Army managed to identify the “mole”, who was a senior officer who had leaked the operational details to ISI. He was court-martialled.
As a follow-up step, the security of the entire South Block was beefed up with the installation of CCTV cameras.
Then DGMO lt. Gen. (retd.) Vinod Bhatia said: “The leak did happen… there is always an insider hand”.
But Antony chose not to give details.
“I do not comment…I don’t want to say anything now”.
Former Army chief General Bikram Singh also preferred not to talk about the incident.
“I retired a year ago, check with the Army headquarters,” he said.
Asked if the minutes between the then defence minister and the Army chief in February 2014 were leaked, the then DGMO Bhatia said: “No security system is foolproof. A leak did happen, how it happened is a different matter, but I can assure you whenever this kind of leak happens, we do re-check our security system and make it foolproof. Whatever happened that time, shouldn’t have happened. We will ensure this doesn’t happen again.”
When asked if there was a lapse and whether it was an insider job, he replied: “There is an old saying ‘ghar ka bhedi lanka dhaye’. There is always insider hand, why does he do it? How does he do it? Whom does he do it for? Important thing is it’s an insider job. I cannot reveal the steps taken publicly, but steps were taken. It is almost a year, but whenever information is leaked, the system will be corrected.”

Riaz Haq said...

ISLAMABAD — Pakistan on Monday successfully test-fired a ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear or conventional warheads far beyond the borders of its strategic rival India.

The Shaheen-III surface-to-surface missile splashed down in the Arabian Sea after flying 1,720 miles from its launching pad, the military said in a statement.

That’s more than double the maximum range required to hit a target anywhere in India but falls short of being able to reach Israel, located more than 2,100 miles away. Pakistan has said, however, that the strategic plans division of its military is technically capable of extending the reach of its Shaheen and Ghouri missiles programs beyond Monday’s test by adding solid or liquid-fuel engines.

Previously, Pakistan has restricted the range of its missile tests to about 900 miles, a distance that would allow it to target India but would not raise alarms in potentially threatened states like Israel, with which Pakistan has no diplomatic relations.


Pakistan’s government says its nuclear weapons program has been developed exclusively as a deterrent against India, with which it has fought two wars and four regionalized conflicts since the two countries gained independence from British colonial rule in 1947.

The commander of the Pakistani military’s strategic weapons division, Gen. Zubair Mahmood Hayat, said Monday’s test was conducted to validate various design and technical parameters of the Shaheen-III at maximum range.

He described the test as “a major step towards strengthening Pakistan’s deterrence capability,” an obvious allusion to India.

In December, India’s military conducted the first “user test” of its 2,500-mile-range Agni-IV, the first Indian ballistic missile capable of delivering nuclear or conventional warheads deep into Chinese territory. It is scheduled to be deployed in 2016 or 2017.

Scientists at India’s Defense Research and Development Organization on Jan. 31 carried out the first test-launch of the Agni-V, a 3,400-mile-range intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching all of China from a mobile platform. It, too, has been fast-tracked for deployment by India’s strategic forces command in the next one to two years.

India fought a 1962 border war with China, and the two countries’ troops frequently skirmish along their disputed Himalayan border. China is also Pakistan’s closest ally, creating the prospect of a two-front conflict for India and fueling India’s push for parity with China’s older, more advanced nuclear weapons program.

Pakistan’s ballistic test Monday came a week after the resumption of diplomatic engagement with India, which called off talks in August to protest Pakistani consultations with politicians from the part of disputed Kashmir administered by India.

“Missile tests are actually the norm when it comes to Indo-Pak talks,” said Harsh V. Pant, a professor at King’s College London. “Every time the two states decide to talk, there is a tendency to show off their military muscle.”

India and Pakistan border forces exchanged automatic weapons and mortar fire last year in a series of confrontations that left several dozen soldiers and farmers killed and forced the evacuation of rice-farming villages on both sides of the border.

By October, the Indian and Pakistani prime ministers were no longer on speaking terms, and it fell upon their common ally, the United States, to break the ice.

During his January trip to India, President Barrack Obama used his friendship with Prime Minister Nirender Modi to push for a resumption of talks with Pakistan. Both before and after his visit to India, Obama telephoned Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan’s prime minister, to inform on his discussions in New Delhi.

Modi subsequently telephoned Sharif in February to wish Pakistan luck at the ongoing world cup of cricket, a sport with fanatical followings in both countries. The call also set up a visit by India’s foreign secretary to Islamabad on March 3.

Read more here:

Riaz Haq said...

Here's an Indian analyst's view of "The Consequences of a Pakistani Sea-Based Nuclear Second Strike Capability"

Last week, Franz-Stefan Gady provided a helpful round-up of the confusing evidence surrounding the existence of Pakistan’s sea-based second nuclear strike capability. Since 2012, when Pakistan created its Naval Strategic Force Command, there has been considerable concern, in India and elsewhere, that Pakistan is close to imminently operationalizing a sea-based second strike capability. Though analysts remain divided over the question of how far Pakistan has taken its sea-based deterrent (we know, for example, that Pakistan has neither the quantity nor quality of submarines to effectively implement this yet), it’s worth understanding the consequences of such a development on strategic stability in South Asia.

First, what we know now suggests that any Pakistani sea-based second strike capability will depend on a sea-launched variant of the Hatf-VII Babur cruise missile. The Hatf-VII, a medium-range subsonic cruise missile, tops out at a range of 700 km, meaning that a submarine-based launch system would need to operate in waters relatively close to the prospective enemy’s shores (in Pakistan’s case, India). This brings up a problem for Pakistan’s plans for a sea-based deterrent that more established nuclear powers with sea-based deterrents such as the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom haven’t faced. The credibility of a second strike capability lies in the difficult of detecting submarines carrying submarine-launch ballistic missiles. Undersea radars and other anti-submarine warfare techniques, already a major point of interest for the Indian armed forces, could undermine Pakistan’s sea-based deterrent.

Interestingly, this observation means that the actual specifications of the submarine being engineered for Pakistan’s sea-based deterrent, with the help of China, is less interesting than the actual delivery vehicle. Even if Pakistan manages to operate submarines on par with China’s Type 032 Qing-class or Type 041 Yuan-class, capable of launching longer-range land attack cruise missiles (a max range of 1,500 km), these missiles are only capable of being armed with “unitary tactical nuclear warheads,” according to – a far cry from the strategic nuclear deterrent necessary to credibly field a second strike capability. Experts note that Pakistan will need a submarine fleet comprising 14 vessels in order to keep one nuclear-armed sub on stand-by at all times. Back under Pervez Musharraf’s leadership, Pakistan planned to expand its fleet to 12 vessels.

Additionally, as Bruno Tertias noted in a thoughtful post over at the Lowy Interpreter last year, even if we generously acknowledge a credible strategic sea-based second strike capability to Pakistan, there is no reason to believe that conventional strategic stability logic would apply; i.e., sea-based second strike capabilities existing on both sides of the India-Pakistan nuclear balance would lead to better long-term stability.

Also worth noting is that currently, nuclear escalation in South Asia is not an entirely frictionless process given India’s mostly credible No First-Use doctrine and Pakistan’s claim that it keeps its warheads separated from its launchers (even though it maintains a First-Use policy for deterrent purposes). For a conflict across the Radcliffe Line to escalate into a full-blown strategic nuclear exchange, Pakistan’s National Command Authority (NCA) would have to explicitly authorize nuclear use. A Pakistani sea-based deterrent would make this traditional decoupling of warheads from launchers less viable and, as a result, make nuclear first-use by Pakistan more likely. Not only will this possibility cause Indian strategic planners to lose sleep, but it would draw considerable concern from the United States and other nuclear powers.

Riaz Haq said...

Retired #Pakistan pilot Sattar Alvi recalls how he shot down Capt Lutz flying a #Mirage in 1973 #Arab-#Israel war. …

They were closing in rapidly and there was no choice, but to turn and engage. No sooner had the leader ordered the turn, that the radio and radar signals were jammed, emitting unbearably shrilly noises. Just as I was turning to position myself during the turn, I got a glint of metal from behind and well below me. I simply could not ignore it and turned back to find two Mirages zooming up towards me from the valley beneath. By this time, my own formation had turned 180 degrees away flying at Mach 1.2 with no radio contact. ‘This was it’, I knew instinctively, and I was alone: Two Mirages against a single Mig-21. Instantly the fighter pilot’s training kicked in and all other thoughts left my mind. I proceeded to do what I had been trained to do.
A cardinal rule of air combat is knowing and using the limitations and strengths of your own and the enemy’s aircraft. A Mirage is good at high speeds and poor at slow speed combat. The Mirage leader made his high speed pass at me and as I forced him to overshoot he pulled up high above me. His wingman followed in the attack and I did the same with him; followed by a violent reversal and making the aircraft stand on its tail. The speed dropped to zero. The wingman should have followed his leader.
To my surprise he didn’t, and reversed getting into scissors with me at low speeds. That was suicidal and a Mirage should never do that against a Mig-21. But then, the game plan probably was for the wingman to keep me engaged while the leader turned around to sandwich and then shoot me. It was a good plan, but not easy to execute. The only difficulty in this plan was that the second Mirage had to keep me engaged long enough without becoming vulnerable himself. This is where things began to go wrong for the wingman because his leader took about 10 seconds longer than what was required.
The ‘Miraj’ effect
The wingman couldn’t just hang on with me and there was a star of David in my aiming sight after the second reversal. Seeing his dilemma and desperation to escape, the wingman attempted an exit with a steep high-speed dive. That in fact made my job easier and quicker. As soon as the distance increased and I heard the deep growl of the K-13, I fired. The missile takes one second to leave the rails and that was the longest second of my life. A second later there was a ball of fire where the wingman had been and I turned to face the leader charging towards me. We crossed but he had made a beeline for his home and thank God for that. I had only vapours remaining and no fuel. I hit the deck with supersonic speed.
Capt Lutz who was flying as the unfortunate wingman, was rescued by a helicopter and brought to the military hospital. He succumbed to his injuries later in the hospital before I could have a tete-a-tete with him. I have his flying coverall with me, presented to me as a war trophy by the Syrian air force commander-in-chief. I was awarded Wisam-e Faris and Wisam-e-Shujaat by the Syrian government, which are equivalent to Pakistani Hilal-e-Jurat and Sitara-e-Jurat.

Riaz Haq said...

Here's an excerpt from a piece in Diplomat on "India and Pakistan Locked in a Nuclear Naval Arms Race"

...Rehman highlights a few other interesting points about the naval nuclear dynamics in the Indian Ocean:

India’s pursuit of a sea-based nuclear strike force is the next logical step in its quest for an assured retaliatory capability.
To enjoy an effective sea-based deterrent vis-à-vis China, India’s other prospective nuclear adversary, New Delhi has to develop larger SSBNs with greater missile carriage capacity and more powerful nuclear reactors.
Pakistan’s naval nuclear ambitions are fueled primarily by the sense of a growing conventional, rather than strategic, imbalance between New Delhi and Islamabad.
By dispersing low-yield nuclear weapons across a variety of naval platforms, Islamabad aims to acquire escalation dominance and greater strategic depth and to reduce the incentives for a preemptive strike on its nuclear assets.
Interestingly, Rehman also underlines that, “the submarine-based leg of India’s nuclear triad will have a major impact on the nation’s existing command-and-control arrangements.”

Writing for The Diplomat, Amit R. Saksena, already elaborated on this point back in January. “For a sea-based asset, where deterrence is primarily achieved by long-term radio silence, and launching control is delegated to seniority on board the vessel, the existing command and control model is not applicable,” Saksena emphasized.

India’s nuclear warfare policy is predicated on a No First-Use (NFU) doctrine; consequently, New Delhi needs to field a credible second-strike capability.

“Just like Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons (TnWs), New Delhi will essentially be delegating launch control to field officers on board the submarine, massively increasing the probability of incidental firing,” according to Saksena.

Furthermore, he points out another issue. “India, like Pakistan, is known to keep its nuclear warheads de-mated from the delivery mechanisms. For the INS Arihant to fulfill its operational responsibility, SLBMs mounted with nuclear warheads will have to be deployed on the vessel.”

Rehman does not discuss this issue in any detail. Nor, despite highlighting the problem, does he elaborate on what a new command and control model for India’s strategic forces might look like.

However, the report contains an interesting section on what lessons Islamabad and New Delhi can derive from naval nuclear operations during the Cold War, as well China’s future role in shaping naval nuclear policies in the Indian Ocean.

At the end of the report, which is worthwhile reading in its entirety, Rehman concludes that “the present period offers a precious window of opportunity for both New Delhi and Islamabad to shape, rather than be shaped, by the emerging naval nuclear regime in South Asia.” Yet the window for the implementation of new confidence-building measures between the two countries is shrinking rapidly.

Riaz Haq said...

NEW DELHI: The government on Saturday cleared the DRDO project to build advanced "eyes in the sky" or next-generation AWACS (airborne warning and control systems), which can detect incoming aerial threats like hostile fighters, drones and cruise missiles from 400-km away.

The Manohar Parrikar-led defence acquisitions council (DAC) approved the building of two Awacs, which will involve mounting indigenous 360-degree coverage AESA (active electronically scanned array) radars on Airbus A-330 wide-body jets, at a cost of Rs 5,113 crore.

The eventual plan is to induct eight such aircraft under the "Awacs-India" project since both China and Pakistan are well ahead of India in this critical area in modern-day warfare, as was reported by TOI earlier.

"It will take at least 5-7 years to build the first two Awacs . Six more Awacs will be ordered when the project is mid-way," said a source. The decision, incidentally, comes ahead of PM Narendra Modi's visit to France and Germany, which primarily house the European Airbus consortium, in early-April.

The DAC also approved the Army's Rs 1,605 crore acquisition of 30 weapon-locating radars from defence PSU Bharat Electronics and the Rs 710 crore order for 1,512 mine-ploughs for the T-90S main-battle tanks from Bharat Earth Movers Ltd.

But the controversial Ravi Rishi-owned Vectra Group, which acted as the go-between in the supply of all-terrain heavy Tatra trucks to India, was "dropped" from the list of five vendors in contention to supply 220 truck-mounted lifting devices (TMLD) for Rs 24 crore.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan to buy 8 #Chinese attack submarines. Biggest ever multi-billion dollar arms export deal for #China @WSJ

Pakistan’s plan to buy eight Chinese submarines is likely to be one of China’s biggest arms deals and to intensify an emerging undersea contest in the Indian Ocean.

The deal, confirmed by a senior Pakistani defense official, is also expected to be among Pakistan’s biggest-ever weapons purchases.

Rear Admiral Mukhtar Khan, additional secretary in Pakistan’s Ministry of Defence, revealed the plan at a meeting of parliament’s Standing Committee on Defence on Tuesday, according to an official record of the meeting.

The official record quoted him saying that “the National Security Committee (NSC) has approved, in principle the project to acquire eight Chinese submarines. Financial negotiations for the same are in advance stages.”

The National Security Committee is the top decision-making body for defense issues, with both civilian leadership—including Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif—and the military chiefs sitting on this committee.

Pakistan Navy officials declined to comment. An official in the press office of China’s Defense Ministry referred questions on the submarine deal to local defense industry representatives but declined to say which ones were involved.

A senior Pakistani government official said that discussions were ongoing, but the financial and technical details of the deal won’t be publicly discussed until negotiations are wrapped up and it has actually been signed.

China and Pakistan have had close relations for decades based largely on their mutual suspicion of India, and China has long been one of Pakistan’s main arms suppliers.

Hua Chunying, a Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman, didn’t respond directly when asked about the submarine deal on Thursday but said: “China and Pakistan are traditional friends and neighbors.”

She said that China abided by its principles and international standards when selling arms.

She also said that Chinese President Xi Jinping was looking forward to paying a state visit to Pakistan “as soon as possible” and both sides were in close contact on that issue. She didn’t give a date for the visit.

Military experts and defense industry publications say the deal is most likely for Pakistan to buy China’s diesel-powered Yuan class attack submarines, which are also known as Type 039A or Type 041.

However, some earlier reports have suggested that Pakistan could purchase another Chinese diesel-powered attack submarine called the Qing class, or Type 032.

Pakistan’s navy currently operates five French-designed Agosta class submarines, two purchased in the 1970s and three in the 1990s, according to the navy’s official website.

“I think the reasoning for Pakistan, is, as always, competition with India,” said James Hardy, Asia Pacific editor of IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly.

“These subs would be attack subs so conventionally armed [antiship missiles and torpedoes rather than nuclear armed] and would be designed to complicate any Indian blockade operations around Karachi or elsewhere in the event of a war. ”

China’s global arms exports more than doubled between the five-year period ended in 2009 and the five-year period ended in 2014, according to an annual report on weapons transfers published last month by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

China was Pakistan’s biggest arms supplier between 2010 and 2014, accounting for 51% of Pakistani weapons imports. The U.S. was in second place with 30%, according to the report.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan To Buy 8 Submarines From China

He (Analyst Haris Khan) said the Type-214 deal was the centerpiece of the naval aspect of the AFDP, and that the first submarine would have been delivered in 2015. The naval aspect of the AFDP especially is in total disarray, he said.

It is unknown if the Type-214 was shelved until finances become available (some industry officials believe this was at least the intention at the time the deal collapsed), but attention subsequently switched to acquiring six AIP-equipped submarines from China.

Due to the need to decommission the Agosta-70s, Khan believes any refurbished submarines will be required to be "sailing under a Pakistani flag within 12 months."

Acquiring Turkish Type-209s remains possible, and despite Pakistan's predicament, Khan says "Under the present circumstances I don't see any collaboration between Pakistan and Turkey since Pakistan will only be locally producing Chinese submarines."

Whether the Chinese submarines are the S-20 export derivative of the Type-039A/Type-041 Yuan-class submarine, or a bespoke design, is unclear. But the Yuan has also been mentioned, and according to government officials the deal was supposed to be secured by the end of 2014.

If the deal transpires, Khan said it will be the largest ever Sino-Pakistani deal. He believes the submarines will each cost $ 250 million to $325 million.

Neither the Ministry of Defence nor the Navy would shed further light when asked. No answers were forthcoming to requests regarding the timeframe of the deal, whether the two Agosta-70s will finally be retired now the number of planned Chinese submarines has increased to eight, clarification on acquiring surplus Western submarines, or the status of the Type-214 acquisition efforts.

Should the Chinese deal go through, it will be a considerable relief, and be especially significant for the nuclear deterrent.

Pakistan inaugurated its Naval Strategic Force Command in 2012 in response to India's rapid nuclearization.

A potential force of 8 AIP-equipped Chinese subs and the three Agosta-90Bs "is a quantum leap in existing capabilities," said Mansoor Ahmed of Quaid-e-Azam University's Department of Defence and Strategic Studies.

Though acknowledging nuclear-powered attack boats are far more capable, he believes "An AIP [diesel-electric submarine] offers Pak the best bang for the buck. But it has to be supplemented with a commensurate investment in [anti-submarine warfare] capabilities to neutralize developments on the Indian side."

He said this will lay the groundwork for having a permanent sea-based deterrent equipped with plutonium-based warheads fitted to cruise missiles, "which is expected to be the next major milestone in Pakistan's development of a triad."

Ahmed acknowledges this "would pose fresh challenges for ensuring effective and secure communications at all times with the submarines for both India and Pak in addition to having a mated-arsenal at sea that would require pre-delegation of launch authority at some level for both countries.

"This would be an altogether new challenge that would have to be addressed for an effective sea-based deterrent."

Nevertheless, AIP-equipped conventional submarines "provide reliable second strike platforms, [and] an assured capability resides with [nuclear-powered attack and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines], which are technically very complex and challenging to construct and operate compared to SSKs, and also very capital intensive."

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan and the United States moved closer to a billion dollar defense deal this week, after U.S. authorities notified Congress of a proposal to supply helicopters and missiles to sharpen up Pakistan's counter-terrorism efforts.

U.S. ally Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation of 180 million people, is fighting a Taliban insurgency in its northwest, a separatist insurgency along its Iranian border in the west, and has a heavily militarized and disputed border with arch rival India in the east.

The $952 million proposal involves the United States supplying Pakistan with 15 AH-1Z attack helicopters, 1,000 Hellfire missiles, engines, targeting and positioning systems and other equipment. But negotiations are not complete.

The helicopters and weapon systems were designed for counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency operations, especially in the mountainous Taliban strongholds along the Afghan border, the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency said.

On Monday, the agency notified Congress of the proposed sale, noting it would "contribute to the foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security of a country vital to U.S. foreign policy and national security goals in South Asia".

The equipment "will not alter the basic military balance in the region," the agency said.

Pakistani defense officials did not reply to requests for comment. The United States has been pushing Pakistan to take action against the Taliban as it withdraws most of its combat troops from neighboring Afghanistan, which is facing its own Taliban insurgency.

James Hardy, the Asia-Pacific editor for IHS Jane's Defence Weekly, told Reuters the helicopters would help modernize Pakistan's aging fleet, some of which had problems with spares and maintenance.

"Attack helicopters give you 'loiter' capability - you can hang around, find the target, knock it out," he said. "Right now Pakistan is using its fast jets for counterinsurgency work."

Pakistan is also trying to finalize a deal to buy eight submarines from China for a reported cost of between $4 billion to $5 billion.

China supplied 51 percent of the weapons Islamabad imported in 2010-2014, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which tracks global arms sales.

This year's budget allocated $7 billion to the military. The police received $800 million.

Riaz Haq said...

#India's Wrong Priorities: As Children Go Hungry PM #Modi Buys Expensive Fighters #France #RafaleDeal via Forbes​


The implications for India, however, are depressing: one more vivid illustration of misguided policies at the expense of the poor. 960 million Indians live on less than $2 a day. Reading the data is one thing; seeing the consequences, as I did recently driving through the slums on the outskirts of Jaipur, is heart-wrenching. Their plight could not be worse. Rafale jet fighters are about the last thing they need!


The greatest means to enhance security in South Asia is not more weapons. Member states of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) have one of the world’s lowest rates of intra-regional trade. This is especially the case of trade between Pakistan and India. As the early 19th century French political economist Frédéric Bastiat is alleged to have said: “if goods don’t cross borders, armies (or indeed Rafale fighter jets) will”. Both Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif should have his portrait and quote hung in their respective offices.

Think of the hungry children of India, give back the Rafale fighter jets to France (we’ll survive).

Riaz Haq said...

Earlier this month, the United States approved a $952 million sale of helicopters, missiles, engines, targeting and positioning systems, and other equipment in response to a request made by Pakistan last year to help its efforts to counter domestic insurgents.\

“This proposed sale will contribute to the foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security of a country vital to U.S. foreign policy and national security goals in South Asia,” reads the certification by the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) notifying Congress of the possible sale on April 6.

Yet national security may just be a pretext used for the swift clearance of this deal.

According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, selling arms may once have been “a major foreign policy and security tool” for the U.S., but this practice has been replaced by the need to prop up the U.S. arms industry at a time when the country’s own military expenditures have dropped.

“To sell or not sell weapons depends only upon political and strategic imperatives,” said Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy, a professor of physics at the Forman Christian College University in Lahore, who is also a national security analyst.

Speaking to MintPress News, he added that that all arms suppliers, including the U.S., use human rights as a “fig leaf.” As an example of this, he pointed to the United States’ massive arms sales to Saudi Arabia, “which supports extremist groups across the world and mistreats minorities badly.”

“Today, given that Pakistan is fighting some Taliban groups instead of supporting them as earlier, it has become politically expedient and financially profitable for the U.S. to sell to Pakistan as well,” Hoodbhoy concluded.

Likewise, Commodore Uday Bhaskar, the director of the independent Society for Policy Studies in New Delhi and former head of the government-funded Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) and the National Maritime Foundation, a non-governmental think tank, noted the sale should be tied to “stringent conditions” on Pakistan’s army’s compliance with terrorism and human rights frameworks.

In 2014, global defense trade increased for the sixth straight year to $64.4 billion, up from $56.8 billion, with the U.S. and Russia topping the list of arms exporters. Soon after the approval of its sale to Pakistan, the U.S also approved a potential $57 million sale of air-to-surface missiles to Egypt.

According to IHS, a global information company, there has been “unparalleled demand from the emerging economies for military aircraft” since the escalation of “regional tensions” in the Middle East and Asia Pacific.

IHS’s Global Defense Trade Report, released in March, lists the top defense exporters and importers in 2013 and 2014 and shows how these rankings have changed year-on-year:

Top Defence Exporters Top Defence Exporters
2013 2014
1. United States 1.United States
2. Russian Federation 2. Russian Federation
3. France 3. France
4. UK 4. UK
5. Germany 5. Germany
6. Israel 6. Italy
7. China 7. Israel
8. Italy 8. China
9. Sweden 9. Spain
10. Canada 10. Canada

Top Defence Importers Top Defence Importers
2013 2014
1. India 1. Saudi Arabia
2. Saudi Arabia 2. India
3. UAE 3. China
4. Taiwan 4. UAE
5. China 5. Taiwan
6. Indonesia 6. Australia
7. South Korea 7. South Korea
8. Egypt 8. Indonesia
9. Australia 9. Turkey
10. Singapore 10. Pakistan

India’s race for arms
The Indian defense budget has increased to $40 billion, compared to a mere $7 billion for the neighboring Pakistani military. “India is claiming to be worried but its weapons purchases far exceed Pakistan’s,” Hoodbhoy asserted.

Meanwhile, the Chinese defense budget stands at roughly $145 billion, nearly four times that of India. In fact, China is second only to the U.S. in triple-digit military spending.

Riaz Haq said...

Bulk of US$5.4 billion #American arms purchased by #Pakistan's own resources:Congress Report | Business Standard News: …

Sales of F-16 combat aircraft and related equipment account for nearly half of these Foreign Military Sales agreements with Pakistan, according to a report by Congressional Research Service for lawmakers.

India has time and again opposed the sale of such equipment to Pakistan as it apprehends that Islamabad may eventually use them against India.

In dollar value terms, the bulk of purchases have been made with Pakistani national funds, although US grants have eclipsed these in recent years, CRS said.

Congress, it noted, has appropriated about $3.6 billion in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) for Pakistan since 2001, more than two-thirds of which has been disbursed.

These funds are used to purchase US military equipment for longer-term modernization efforts. Pakistan also has been granted US defence supplies as Excess Defence Articles (EDA).

In April 2015, the State Department approved a possible $952 million FMS deal with Pakistan for 15 AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters and 1,000 Hellfire II missiles, along with helicopter engines, avionics, training, and support.

Under Coalition Support Funds (in the Pentagon budget), Pakistan received 26 Bell 412EP utility helicopters, along with related parts and maintenance, valued at $235 million.

For counterinsurgency operations, the US has provided 4 Mi-17 multirole helicopters (another 6 were provided temporarily at no cost), 4 King Air 350 surveillance aircraft, 450 vehicles for the Frontier Corps and 20 Buffalo explosives detection and disposal vehicles, the CRS report said.

Through International Military Education and Training and other programs, the US has funded and provided training for more than 2,000 Pakistani military officers, report noted,

Major post-2001 defence supplies provided, or soon to be provided, under FMF include:

. eight P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft and their refurbishment (valued at $474 million, four delivered, three of which were destroyed in a 2011 attack by Islamist militants);

. at least 5,750 military radio sets ($212 million);

. 2,007 TOW anti-armor missiles ($186 million);

. six AN/TPS-77 surveillance radars ($100 million);

. six C-130E Hercules transport aircraft and their refurbishment ($76 million);

. the Perry-class missile frigate USS McInerney, via special EDA authorization ($65 million for refurbishment; now the PNS Alamgir);

. 20 AH-1F Cobra attack helicopters via EDA ($48 million for refurbishment, 12 delivered); and

. 15 Scan Eagle reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles ($30 million). Supplies paid for with a mix of Pakistani national funds and FMF include:

. up to 60 Mid-Life Update kits for F-16A/B combat aircraft (valued at $891 million, with $477 million of this in FMF; Pakistan has purchased

45 such kits, with all upgrades completed to date); and

. 115 M-109 self-propelled howitzers ($87 million, with $53 million in FMF). Notable items paid or to be paid for entirely with Pakistani national funds include:

. 18 new F-16C/D Block 52 Fighting Falcon combat aircraft (valued at $1.43 billion);

. F-16 armaments including 500 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles; 1,450 2,000-pound bombs; 500 JDAM Tail Kits for gravity bombs; and 1,600 Enhanced Paveway laser-guided kits, also for gravity bombs ($629 million);

. 100 Harpoon anti-ship missiles ($298 million);

. 500 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles ($95 million); and

. seven Phalanx Close-In Weapons System naval guns ($80 million). Major articles transferred via EDA include:

. 14 F-16A/B Fighting Falcon combat aircraft;

. 59 T-37 Tweet military trainer jets; and

. 374 M113 armoured personnel carriers.

Riaz Haq said...

The U.S. Congressional Research Service reports that Pakistan has signed $5.4 billion in Foreign Military Sales contracts from fiscal 2001 to fiscal 2014.
Procurement of F-16 aircraft and related equipment account for more than half of the sum.

"Major U.S. arms sales and grants to Pakistan since 2001 have included numerous items useful for counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency operations, along with a number of "big ticket" platforms more suited to conventional warfare," the service said in its report. "In dollar value terms, the bulk of purchases have been made with Pakistani national funds, although U.S. grants have eclipsed these in recent years."

CSR said Congress has appropriated about $3.6 billion in Foreign Military Financing, or FMF, for Pakistan since 2001 and more than two-thirds of that has been disbursed. Pakistan also has been given U.S. defense supplies as Excess Defense Articles and training was provided for the use of those articles.

Excess Defense Articles are systems no longer needed by the U.S. Armed Forces. They are offered at a reduced cost or no-cost basis to eligible foreign recipients on an "as is, where is" basis. Refurbishment, however, is the financial responsibility of recipients.

Major post-2001 defense supplies procured, or being procured by Pakistan through the Foreign Military Sales program, are eight P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft and their refurbishment (four were delivered but three of them were subsequently destroyed in a 2011 terrorist attack); at least 5,750 military radio sets; 2,007 TOW anti-armor missiles; six AN/TPS-77 surveillance radars; six C-130E Hercules transport aircraft and their refurbishment; a Perry-class missile frigate; 20 refurbished AH-1F Cobra attack helicopters, of which 12 have been delivered; and 15 Scan Eagle reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles.

Items procured with a mix of Pakistani national funds and U.S. FMF include, 45 Mid-Life Update kits for F-16A/B combat aircraft AND 115 M-109 self-propelled howitzers, CSR said.

"Notable items paid or to be paid for entirely with Pakistani national funds include 18 new F-16C/D Block 52 Fighting Falcon combat aircraft (valued at $1.43 billion); F-16 armaments including 500 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles; 1,450 2,000-pound bombs; 500 JDAM Tail Kits for gravity bombs; and 1,600 Enhanced Paveway laser-guided kits for gravity bombs; 100 Harpoon anti-ship missiles; 500 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles; and seven Phalanx Close-In Weapons System naval guns."

A new $952 million FMS deal to provide Pakistan for 15 AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters, missiles and other items was approved by the State Department last month.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan's SSG Black Storks commandos rank first among 9 most elite special forces in the world (via @BusInsiderAU) …

Elite special forces are some of the best-trained and formidable units that a country can boast.

They go where other soldiers fear to tread, scoping out potential threats, taking out strategic targets, and conducting daring rescue missions.

These really are the best of the best.

Although it’s extremely difficult to rank these forces relative to each other, there are some units that rise above the rest in terms of their track record and the fear they instill in their adversaries. These soldiers have been through weeks of rigorous training exercises explicitly designed to weed out those who can’t hit their exacting standards.

In a world where the importance of the sheer size of a country’s military forces is no longer a guide to their effectiveness, these soldiers are the ones state’s look to in order to get the job done.

Riaz Haq said...

#India’s Military Cannot Fight Wars Lasting Longer than 20 Days | Severe ammunition shortages. #Pakistan #China …

Last week, the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of India published a report outlining a massive ammunition shortage facing the Indian military. Currently, India has only enough supplies for 20 days of intense fighting.

“Stocking of ammunition even at ‘minimum acceptable risk level’ was not ensured,” the report said, according to the Hindustan Times. The report found that, as of March 2013, India’s stockpiles were below “minimum acceptable risk level” for “125 out of a total of 170 types of ammunition.”

The across-the-board requirement for the Indian Army is to have enough reserves for at least 40 days of high-intensity combat. However, the auditors found that the supplies for around 50 percent of ammunition types would barely last for even ten days of war.

This report will not come as a surprise to military analysts. The Indian Army has been confronted by a critical ammunition shortage for at least 16 years. For example, during the 70-day long Kargil War in 1999, India had to purchase much needed artillery shells from Israel at exorbitant prices.

Already last year, the Times of India revealed that the Indian military could not last for much longer than 20 days of intense fighting and reported critical shortages, including in tank and air defense ammunition, anti-tank guided missiles, specialized machine-gun magazines, grenades, and mine fuses.

The article also noted that “urgent steps” were being taken by the government to address this problem and to accelerate the slow buildup of the war wastage reserves (WWR), which should reach 100 percent by 2019.

“The WWR, incidentally, should be sufficient for 30 days of ‘intense’ and 30 days of ‘normal’ fighting. With three days of ‘normal’ equal to one of ‘intense’, the WWR should consequently be adequate for 40 days of ‘intense’ fighting,” the Times of India states.

However, drawn-out arms procurement processes and the underperformance of state-owned ammunition suppliers has led to no obvious improvements in the situation, as evident by the newly released CAG report. One of the consequences is that India still has to rely heavily on arms imports.

For example, India’s Defense and Research Organization (DRDO) failed to produce ammunition for its fleet of T-90 tanks (see: “Breakdown: What’s Happening with India’s Tank Force”). “The ammunition produced in India was not compatible with the fire-control system of the tanks, thus these have to be modified,” according to a military analyst.

Consequently, the Indian military decided to purchase around 66,000 anti-tank shells from Russia in early 2014. However, Moscow suddenly hiked up the price for the purchase by 20 percent. New Delhi had no choice and the Indian Ministry of Defense had to reluctantly agree to the price increase.

Riaz Haq said...

Planes Landing On Autobahn NATO Exercise "Highway 84" West Germany 1984

Yes, #India Mirage landing on Yamuna Expressway is a big thing but #Pakistan did it much before via @firstpost …

Highway strips are strategic assets for a nation which double up as auxiliary bases in war times. Many European countries have used this tactic for decades, particularly Germany, Sweden, Finland and Poland. Countries like China, Taiwan, Singapore and Australia too have done so many times before.
But what should bring a reality check for the Indians is the fact that Pakistan has done it twice before – first in 2000 and then again in 2010.
The first time Pakistan achieved the feat was way back in the year 2000 when Pakistan Air Force (PAF) used the M2 motorway (Islamabad-Lahore) as a runway on two occasions. For those who have an appetite for technical details, Pakistan’s M-1 Motorway (Peshawar-Islamabad) and the M-2 Motorway (Islamabad-Lahore) each include two emergency runway sections of 2,700 m (9,000 ft) length each. The four emergency runway sections become operational by removing removable concrete medians using forklifts.
PAF used the M2 motorway as a runway for the first time in 2000 when it landed an F-7P fighter, a Super Mushak trainer and a C-130. PAF did it again in 2010 by using a runway section on the M2 motorway on 2 April 2010 to land, refuel and take-off two jet fighters, a Mirage III and an F-7P, during its Highmark 2010 exercise.
India has finally woken up to the need to have many road runways. The Agra-Lucknow expressway is the first Indian road runway.
There are many prerequisites for having road runways. For example, there should be a smooth road at least three kilometers long. Moreover, the road segment has to be straight, leveled, located on non-undulating ground without slope and must not have electricity poles, masts, or mobile phone towers.
For a country like India, whose worst security nightmare is having to fight a two-pronged war with Pakistan and China, road runways are crucial. This underlines the importance of expressways – the highest class of roads which are six-or-eight-lanes controlled-access highways.
As of now, India boasts of 23 expressways totaling a length of 1324 kms, but the truth is that all of these so-called “expressways” are misnomers.
If one goes by the strict definition of “expressways”, India has under 1000 kms of such network; and barely a couple of hundred kms network if one goes by the international parameters.
In other words, the more international-class expressways India has, the more Indian strategic interests are secure.
The moral of the story: expressways are not only lifelines for transportation but also key assets for national security.

Riaz Haq said...

#India's #Modi to Visit #Israel, 1st by an #Indian PM -

The New Indian Express via @NewIndianXpress

NEW DELHI: Narendra Modi will be travelling to Israel, the first by an Indian Prime Minister to the Jewish country with which bilateral defence cooperation is on an upswing.

No dates have been finalised for Modi's visit which will take place on mutually convenient dates, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj said.

Swaraj said she will be travelling to Israel this year, besides Palestine and Jordan.

India had established "full" diplomatic relationship with Israel in 1992 though it had recognised the country in 1950. No Indian Prime Minister or President has ever visited that country.

The then Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon had become the first premier from that country to visit India when he came here in 2003. He is credited with transforming bilateral relations from diminutive defence and trade cooperation to the strategic ties of today.

"As far as my visit is concerned, it will take place this year. I will visit, Israel, Palestine and Jordan. As far as Prime Minister's visit is concerned, he will travel to Israel. No dates have been finalised. It will take place as per mutually convenient dates," she said replying to a question at a press conference.

At the same time, she asserted, "There was no change in India's policy towards Palestine."

L K Advani had visited Israel when he was Home Minister in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government. Jaswant Singh and S M Krishna had visited the Jewish nation as External Affairs Ministers. Recently Home Minister Rajnath Singh had also visited Israel.

Describing Israel as a friendly country, Swaraj said India had never "let down" the Palestinian cause and it will continue to support it.

Asked whether the Prime Minister will visit Iran, she said no such visit has been finalised so far but he will be visiting Turkey to attend G-20 Summit later this year. Swaraj said she will travel to Iran to attend the NAM Summit this year.

Talking about government's efforts to reach out to various countries, Swaraj said Prime Minister will visit five Central Asian countries including Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan when he travels to Russia to attend the BRICS Summit.

"When he goes to Ufa in Russia for BRICS summit, he will visit five Central Asian countries," Swaraj said, adding "the foreign policy has been spread quite significantly. We achieved a lot."

Riaz Haq said...

India recognised Israel on September 18, 1950. But because of India’s non-aligned stance, and its close ties with the erstwhile USSR, it maintained a cold outlook towards the nation which had clearly declared its loyalty to the US. India also seemed to be suspicious about Israel’s relations with its neighbours China and Sri Lanka. The Congress Party’s overarching presence at the centre and state levels meant a national consensus on supporting the Palestinians and opposition to Israel, with the foreign policy being uniformly pro-Arab
Yet these were not entirely fallow years in terms of contact between India and Israel.
India reportedly purchased arms and ammunition from Israel both after the Sino-Indian War of 1962 and the India-Pakistan Wars of 1965 and 1971. Israel was ready to sell the needed weapons thanks to embargoes in the UK, US and France. Similarly, a relationship between India’s security agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and Israel's spy agency Mossad has existed since the 1960s
Even on the non-defence and security front, the situation was not entirely negative. India maintained contacts to understand Israeli techniques of dry land farming and drip irrigation. Along with a few direct and indirect contacts with Israel, mainly in the field of technology, in the late 1980s, the greatest success has been in the diamond industry which today accounts for 50 per cent of India-Israel non-defence trade.
In terms of diplomatic contact, a few high level, yet largely fruitless, contacts took place between the two nations, including the visit of then Israeli Foreign Minister Moshe Sharett (1956) in the middle of the Suez crisis; Ruth Dayan, wife of then Defence Minister Moshe Dayan (1968) and then Foreign Minister Moshe Dayan (1977).

The post-Cold War era

With the end of the Cold war, and shift in India’s foreign and economic policy, diplomatic ties between India and Israel were formally established by the Narasimha Rao government in 1992, when Israel opened an embassy in New Delhi in February, and India reciprocated in May with an embassy in Tel Aviv.
In 1996, India acquired from Israel, 32 IAI Searcher unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), Electronic Support Measure sensors and an air combat manoeuvring instrumentation simulator system. From then on, Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) has worked on several large contracts with the Indian Air Force, including upgrading MiG-21 ground attack aircraft.
Then Israeli President Ezer Weizman led a 24-member business delegation to India in December 1997, the first Israeli head of state head to the nation. Weizman met with then President Shankar Dayal Sharma, Vice-President K R Narayanan and Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda, and also went on to finalise a weapons deal involving the purchase of the Barak-1 vertically-launched surface-to-air missiles
In 2000, Jaswant Singh became the first Indian foreign minister to visit the West Asian nation, following which a joint anti-terror commission was set up by two countries
Ariel Sharon became the first Israeli PM to visit India in 2003, during which a series of cooperative agreements in various fields including health, education and drug trafficking were signed
No major high-level visits have occurred since then, from either side
BBC reported trade between the two countries had risen from $200 million in 1992 to about $4.39 billion in 2013
In 2013, India was Israel's 10th largest trade partner overall and its third largest trade partner in Asia after China and Hong Kong. Israel has also emerged as a major defence supplier to Delhi. Between Modi's election in May 2014 and November 2014, Israel exported $662 million worth of Israeli weapons and defence items to India. This export number is greater than the total Israeli exports to India during the previous three years combined.

Riaz Haq said...

the figures unveiled Friday showed 781 billion rupees (nearly US $7.7 billion) for "'Defence Affairs and Services," an approximately 11 percent increase over the previous year's budget, according to the Associated Press.

Regardless, much of any increase will be to finance the ongoing operation against the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), Operation Zarb-e-Azab.

Furthermore, though the economy is in reasonable shape and the government hopes for a 5.5 percent growth in GDP in the upcoming fiscal year, analysts do not expect the essentially stalled Armed Forces Development Plan, which was put in place modernize the military with new capabilities and equipment, to be restarted on wide scale.

Speaking about the latest increase, Brian Cloughley, former Australian defense attache to Islamabad, said, "I'm not at all surprised. The operating costs of Zarb-e-Azb have been enormous. Provision and transportation of fuel are major items in the budget, and air support is vastly expensive."

"And of course there can be no mention of the nuclear program, which must soak up an enormous amount, too," he added in highlighting that this would not be responsible for all the additional expenditure.
Pakistani defense budgets also consistently rise with Indian budgets, something which Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has previously highlighted.

The true size of the defense budget is thought to be somewhat higher, and some reports indicate 26 percent of taxes raised in fiscal 2015-16 will be allocated to defense in some form or another.

However, despite some improvement in the economy, Cloughley says the "AFDP seems to be stuck in the mud – but there's still a lot of procurement."

Much of this present procurement is from China, and Claude Rakisits, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center, believes this will remain the case for the foreseeable future.

"The Pakistan military will continue to depend on Chinese loans to buy their big ticket items, as is the case of the 8 conventional, diesel-powered submarines that Pakistan is going to buy from China for $6 billion as part of the $46 billion [Pakistan-China Economic Corridor] deal," he said.

Pakistan has a long list of requirements when it comes to new equipment for all three branches of the armed forces, however, much of it from China, and analyst Haris Khan of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank says this includes tanks such as the VT-4, which will be called 'Haider' in Pakistani service; the VN-1 8x8 wheeled APC, surface to air missiles such as the FM-90, HQ-17, and HQ-9 to establish an integrated air defense system, plus submarines and frigates.

Though this amounts to a considerable amount of very expensive equipment, Khan highlights moves made by China that will streamline funding their acquisition for Pakistan.

"Since China has established Export-Import Bank of China is one of three institutional banks in China chartered to implement the state policies in industry, foreign trade, diplomacy, economy, and provide policy financial support, these procurements from China would become more manageable for Pakistan. The Chinese EximBank is based on the American EXIM for granting financial help, this new Chinese financial institutions has generated a lot of negative blow back from the Obama administration," he said.

Though he highlights there are other acquisition programs that also include the US, and that evaluation efforts are ongoing.

"On the other hand the sale of 15 AH-1Z has been approved and the deal will be paid by Pakistani funds via Foreign Military Financing. Pakistan is still looking for surplus or even new F-16.Serbia has sent one of its APC and SPA systems for evaluation along with China supplying three of its most advance attack-helicopter WZ-10 for real time evaluation," he said.

Avi548 said...

Haq ji, one thing I must admit, u r so called musings are very amusing. But I think these are some kind of fantasy work bit like star wars . India can't repeat 1971 with that much intensity and success today , ur right in that . But u r wrong in predicting that Indian capabilities vis a vis Pakistan had gone down . Real scenario is just opposite much to ur disappointment and fear. Pakistan has lost its significance as a major issue in india long time ago and we ( im Indian ) as a people don't believe in looking toward what we had left behind us because of general progressive attitude pervasive in our society due to our cultural soundness and which is in stark contrast with the situation in our back yard i.e Pakistan . Yes you got it right , i literally meant that 'backyard '. This is how world will know Pakistan in near future . Now you tell me my friend , what interests can we have in that piece of real estate lying in our backyard if we have an entire ocean of opportunities ahead (have u noted the term used ' real estate' because Pakistan is not even a failed state now ) in the form of ASEANs. Absolutely nothing , except for making sure that no snake gets in our home from there. So if u people can make sure no snake reach our home from ur side ,u will be as safe as anyone in this world. But if we ever come to know that their is a whole breeding ground , then we have to go for decontamination or even sterilisation in worst case scenario .Now after making my stance clear , I want to remove some of urs misconceptions . Istly Shashi Tharoor is a politician and not a diplomat. Mani Shankar Iyer is an opposition MP his job is to oppose Govt. of India .Plus Indian exports are not hyped because its impossible in a democracy with independent media and a very educated populace . Also our economic growth is real and is calculated independently by many national and international organisation to same results that include non western organisations like BRICS ,ADB etc. No bullshit xx 00 nth gen. Fighter aircraft from china can ever match SU-30 mki of IAF not even F-15 ( US officer himself confessed in that very vedio that SU - 30 is better than F15s). Regarding your bla bla about our edu. system and quality of students I will only say that avg. indian is far more smarter than avg. paki, our last in class can match ur best in class n even out class him, I am 23 years old lot inexperienced and younger than you but still know the world better and have a better perspective as well as situational awareness of current geopolitical world order. All this because of our educational n cultural edge over you peoples. In the last a line about your persona and state of mind as emanating from your wright up. You are a silly, below average and highly frightened mind with a heart full of hatred for superior cultures and envy for Indian economic growth. UR like a deer threatening a tiger bit like this,"If you killed me you will lose one of ur tooth and if you tried to devour me you will have digestive problems". Wkwkwkwkwkwkwkwkwk . Must sound familiar to you , its also a medevial hurra to celebrate extreme happiness lol. Grow up kiddo...

Riaz Haq said...

Here's an CNN-IBN online poll result of its Indian audience:

Is Israel a role model for India when it comes to security?

Yes: 59 per cent

No: 41 per cent

Riaz Haq said...

In his recent trip to Bangladesh, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that his country played an important role in the liberation of Bangladesh from Pakistani in 1971. The eastern wing of Pakistan - now Bangladesh - seceded from the former West Pakistan after a protracted struggle for the economic and political rights of the Bengalis that were severely curtailed by the rulers in Islamabad.

"The Indian PM was candid to say that India supported the 1971 war of liberation. But this is not tantamount to interference in Pakistan, as New Delhi, as a friendly neighbor, stood by Bangladesh whose independence was proclaimed on March 26, 1971. Therefore, it was support from one country to the other against its fight with a third country (Pakistan)," Bangladesh Information Minister Hasanal Haq Inu told an Indian newspaper on Thursday.
To make matters worse, India's Deputy Minister for Information and Broadcasting, Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, said Wednesday that India "will carry out surgical strikes at the place and time of our own choosing," referring to the Indian army's cross-border attack inside Myanmar against insurgents.
"Western disturbances will also be equally dealt with," the minister said during a press briefing when asked if India could also carry out strikes on the Pakistani border, according to a report published by a local news agency.

Ahmed believes that war rhetoric would only benefit the two countries' armies, defense industries, ultra-nationalists, and religious extremists.
"Who are the Indian politicians doing a favor to? Certainly not to PM Sharif's civilian government. They are giving a reason to Pakistan's army generals and their stooges - the Islamists - to create an atmosphere of hatred and jingoism in the country," he said.
Narendra Modi's election to Indian premier in May 2014 led some to expect a lasting diplomatic solution with Pakistan. Modi made the first move, as he invited Sharif to attend his oath-taking ceremony in New Delhi. Sharif opted to reciprocate Modi's friendly gesture and went to the Indian capital on May 26 with a "message of peace." Experts said it was an unprecedented step by a Pakistani leader to engage on such a high-level with a Hindu nationalist like Modi, who was allegedly involved in a Muslim massacre in Gujarat in 2002 as the state's head.
"There were high hopes for the improvement of bilateral relations between India and Pakistan with the fresh start of a new government. Before Prime Minister Modi came to power, the relations between the two neighbors were at an all-time low as all bilateral processes had been interrupted," Sarah Hees, Resident Representative of the German foundation Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in India, told DW.
But in less than two months after the historic meeting of prime ministers Sharif and Modi in New Delhi, the armies of the two nuclear-armed South Asian nations began to trade gunfire along the Kashmir border. Things were back to square one in a very short time.


Indo-Pakistani ties have never been cordial, but the recent escalation of tensions have upset the neighboring countries' peace activists, who say that the blame game from both sides would be harmful for the masses who need peace and development more than anything else.
"If conflict persists, fundamentalist groups in India and Pakistan will benefit. The right-wing groups in both countries want war and animosity," Baseer Naveed, senior researcher at the Asian Human Rights Commission in Hong Kong, told DW.

Riaz Haq said...

“Our travel advice to #Modi is to send his soldiers to invade #Pakistan with their bodybags, they’ll need them"

An Indian military operation along its eastern border with Burma has Pakistani leaders rattled, resulting in threats of swift retaliation should India ever try similar maneuvers along its western border with Pakistan.

The Pakistani statements — which include provocative reminders that India is not the only subcontinent power with nuclear arms — are once again exposing the deep-rooted suspicions and lingering potential for conflict between the long-standing rivals despite groundbreaking outreach to ease tensions.

It has been worse. The two countries have fought three major wars since 1947, engaged in a nuclear arms race in the 1980s and clashed in the 1990s.
Both the Indian army and Burma’s government have denied that Indian troops crossed the border. In a newspaper interview, however, India’s information minister, Rajyavardhan Rathore, said Indian forces had pushed deep into Burma. He called the operation a “message” to countries such as Pakistan that it will not hesitate to pursue threats outside of its borders.

“We will strike when we want to,” Rathore, a retired army officer, told the Indian Express newspaper.

The reaction from Pakistani leaders has been swift and severe — touching off a wildfire of social media comments on both sides of the border.

In a statement issued late Wednesday, Pakistani Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan warned Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to think twice before threatening Pakistan. “Those who are contemplating any kind of adventure in Pakistan must know that they will get a bloody face in the process,” Khan said. “Those who have evil designs against us – listen carefully, Pakistan is not” Burma.

Pakistan’s defense minister, Khawaja Asif, even brought up the possibility of nuclear war should India ever launch a similar incursion into Pakistan. He urged the international community to intervene, telling Geo News the latest tension could prove a “harbinger of disaster” for South Asia.

[Floods link the countries in disaster]

Pakistan’s army chief, Raheel Sharif, chaired a meeting of his top commanders on Wednesday to discuss Pakistan’s worsening relationship with India. Over the past month, Pakistani leaders have repeatedly accused India’s intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), of sponsoring several recent terrorist attacks in Pakistan.


Meanwhile, social media on both sides reflected support of their leaders and militaries. Indians showed support for Modi through the Twitter hashtag of #56inchrocks, a reference to a past claim by Modi about his chest size. (Modi’s longtime tailor later said Modi has a 44-inch chest.)

In Pakistan, the most popular Twitter hashtag is #atankWadiIndia, which is a slur that refers to India as being a terrorist.

“Our travel advice to Modi is to send his soldiers to invade Pakistan with their bodybags, they’ll need them, and we don’t have any,” the group @defencepk, which tracks the Pakistani military, tweeted to its 69,000 followers.

Riaz Haq said...

#Musharraf ordered retaliation on #India targets after intel reports of #Indian plans to strike #Pakistan in 2002. …

General Musharraf sharing the untold story about 2002 India-Pakistan 10-month long standoff.

Musharraf conveyed the message to Indians that if they violate the borders there will be swift retaliation.

After he got the intelligence reports that Indian Air Force was about to launch strikes in Azad Kashmir, he not only made it clear to Indians but he also ordered Air Martial Mushaf to select the targets inside India and take those out just after India's adventurism and continue the next day.

Riaz Haq said...

Mani Shankar Aiyar: What #India's #Modi Has Not Recognised About #Pakistan: ITS RESILIENCE AND NATIONALISM … via @ndtv

"unlike numerous other emerging nations, particularly in Africa, the Idea of Pakistan has repeatedly trumped fissiparous tendencies, especially since Pakistan assumed its present form in 1971. And its institutions have withstood repeated buffeting that almost anywhere elsewhere would have resulted in the State crumbling. Despite numerous dire forecasts of imminently proving to be a "failed state", Pakistan has survived, bouncing back every now and then as a recognizable democracy with a popularly elected civilian government, the military in the wings but politics very much centre-stage, linguistic and regional groups pulling and pushing, sectarian factions murdering each other, but the Government of Pakistan remaining in charge, and the military stepping in to rescue the nation from chaos every time Pakistan appeared on the knife's edge. The disintegration of Pakistan has been predicted often enough, most passionately now that internally-generated terrorism and externally sponsored religious extremism are consistently taking on the state to the point that the army is so engaged in full-time and full-scale operations in the north-west of the country bordering Afghanistan that some 40,000 lives have been lost in the battle against fanaticism and insurgency.

"And yet," as was said on a more famous occasion, "it works!" Pakistan and her people keep coming back, resolutely defeating sustained political, armed and terrorist attempts to break down the country and undermine its ideological foundations. That is what Jaffrelot calls its "resilience". That resilience is not recognized in Modi's India. That is what leads the Rathores and the Parrikars to make statements that find a certain resonance in anti-Pakistan circles in India but dangerously leverage the impact on Pakistani public opinion of anti-India circles in Pakistan. The Parrikars and the Saeeds feed on each other. It is essential that both be overcome.

But even as there are saner voices in India than Rathore's, so also are there saner - much saner - voices in Pakistan than Hafiz Saeed's. Many Indians would prefer a Pakistan overflowing with Saeeds to keep their bile flowing. So would many Pakistanis prefer an India with the Rathores overflowing to keep the bile flowing. At eight times Pakistan's size, we can flex our muscles like the bully on the school play field. But Pakistan's resilience ensures that all that emerges from Parrikar and Rathore are empty words. India is no more able than Pakistan is to destroy the other country"

Riaz Haq said...

#India Air Force's 86th Aircraft Crashes since 2007. #IAF losing one aircraft every month. … via @ndtv

NEW DELHI: A Jaguar fighter - a twin-engine, single seater strike aircraft of Anglo-French origin - of the Indian Air Force crashed this morning near Allahabad in Uttar Pradesh.
It was the 86th crash since 2007 -- on an average, the Indian Air Force (IAF) has lost about one aircraft every month for the past eight years.

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The Parliamentary Committee of Defence which looked into the high rate of crashes, has found that as many as 34 crashes happened due to technical defects. Another 30 were because of the pilot error. Some were a combination of both.

Errors in services led to four crashes and the Bangalore-based Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) - the unit that manufactures aircraft in India - was found to be responsible for at least two crashes.

Regarding human error by the crew, the Committee said some of the crashes were because units weren't using "latest updated maps" but "using old vintage maps". Also, it observed that there was a "requirement of enroute weather and destination to all aircrew".

On the maintenance side, among other recommendations, the committee said there was a need for "additional checks" on aviation fuel, oil and gases to stave off adulteration.

It has also asked for checks at HAL to arrest the premature failure of compressor and turbine blades of aero engine. The servicing schedules of the aircraft need to be revised, the committee said.

Taking the "senior leadership" of the IAF and the Ministry of Defence to task, the Committee observed that it was "baffled to find" that accidents have been consistent over the last decade despite repeated inquiries.

"There is either lacuna in training that is being imparted to our pilots and support officials or the systems installed are technically ill-equipped," the committee said. In either case, "the onus lies on the senior level management".

PRINCE said...

well Haq Ji, what you done is not analysis, this is just pure assumptions with some wrong facts. 1st see the difference b/w the defence budget, now come in all 3 departments starting with Air force.....well yes PAF pilots are good and among the best trained in the world but our pilots are on the same page too. now about aircrafts j-10 or jf-10 is not a 5th gen aircraft, China developed J-11B to counter Su-30 MKI, which they are not exporting to Pakistan. you can think yourself about the quality of jf-17 which is not inducted by china itself. Now your F-16 are really good aircrafts but we too have improved Mirage 2000s and I don't have to mention about the capabilities of Su-MKI specially the radar it carries. plus we are going to have rafale too. now about Land Forces, Army...India have numerical advantage both in Personals and in equipments. Your Al-Khalid tanks are very good but still we have t-90's to counter them and we have them in large numbers, yes you guys have advantage in attack helicopters but India now can produce its own attack helicopters(LCH) plus already selected US apache for tender. In missile tech I say initially Pak used to have advantage but now India gained a lot and almost equal in this department thanks to french and Israeli help. Now about Navy, There is nothing to Compare, you talked about AIP fitted on subs, well India developed its own AIP which they will fit in last 2 scorpenes and 1st one already going through sea trials which is already fitted with French AIP(MESMA system). Now we have 2 aircraft carriers the new one is boarded with Mig-29ks, the aircraft is better than PAF's inventory except f-16's(though I don't want to compare sea based aircraft with land based). now about the destroyers, frigates and corvettes, there is no match untill unless you guys order type 52D, and remember that even after that order we still have the advantage of MF-Star AESA radar, which China wants from Israel and they refused to give them. Now you talked about economy, well in case of war economy will get effected, there is no doubt about it but our economy is not as weak and fragile as pakistan, so yes it will dip but not to a great extent. Now about the comments of Tharoor and shankar Iyer....yaar they are opposition leaders, they will criticise but you should know modi is a powerful elected leader and people will help and support him in his these kind of decisions just like you guys will support your govt. in case of war, isn't. so my final conclusion on the power balance: yes Pakistan army is strong but barring PAF other departments are not as strong as its counterpart. we hey we can't tell what actually happen if a real war is on so better to avoid war and work for betterment for people

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan Troops Using UAVs, Cameras to Spy on #India along border: BSF - The New Indian Express via @NewIndianXpress

JODHPUR: Pakistani troops have been using every opportunity to spy on the Indian side using UAVs or cameras along the border, a BSF officer said on Saturday.

BSF DIG (Rajasthan Frontier) Ravi Gandhi said that Pakistan was making the best use of technology to keep an eye on the Indian side but had stopped the practice after objection was raised. However, there were still some concerns in other areas.

Reportedly BSF troops had spotted a moving light as high as 150–400 metres close to the border in Pakistani territory in April.

"We do not know what exactly it was. But assuming them to be some drone or a UAV kind of thing, we took up the matter with Pakistani Rangers through a protest note after which the practice was dropped," Gandhi said.

"But then they started installing cameras close to the border at a number of places in Barmer, Jaislamer, Bikaner and Ganganagar," Gandhi said, adding that all the cameras were removed from the border of Rajasthan Frontier after "we objected this move but some are still there on the boarder in other frontiers".

"We took a serious objection on these overtures of Pakistan after which the Rangers removed these cameras," claimed Gandhi.

"These might be attempt of Pakistani Rangers to explore the possibilities of getting their moles, may be some smugglers with drug or arms slip into the Indian territory in the thick on night," said a police official citing their links in the villages along the border in Indian territory.

Meanwhile, BSF is also grappling with the issue of illegal mining of gypsum in Bikaner region.

BSF patrolling teams have seized a number of trucks and caught a number of persons mining close to the border.

"We have caught a number of gypsum mining activities close to the border in Bikaner region and have handed over the trucks and persons to the Bajju police post in April and May," Gandhi said.

He however cautioned that although such activities are being carried out by local mining mafia, unwarranted elements can take advantage of the situation, making it detrimental to national interest

Riaz Haq said...

Attack #Pakistan, Ex ISI Chief dares #India …

Talking to CNN-IBN, Gul said that to ascertain whether the militant captured in Wednesday's attack was from Pakistan, one would have to "check his DNA".
He also said Indian forces were attacking Pakistani villages near the border and killing civilians and Pakistani firing was retaliation.
He goes on to say, audibly agitated, "Do what you have to do... attack Pakistan and be done with it if it is so much trouble for you."
"Either settle the Kashmir dispute or attack Pakistan because Pakistan is troublesome and creating problems for you," he said.
"If you think Pakistan is out to destabilise India... then I am giving you an answer, we are prepared to take on," Gul said.
The former ISI chief also "hundred percent" denied any Pakistan links to the Gurdaspur terror attack in Punjab.

Riaz Haq said...

NY Times Editorial: #India has more to lose in war with #Pakistan. #Modi #Kashmir

More than 50 years after India and Pakistan were created in the partition of the British colonial empire, the disputed region of Kashmir remains a dangerous flash point. Cross-border violence has surged in recent months, raising new fears that the attacks could spiral out of control and set off another war between the two nuclear-armed adversaries.

In the last week alone, India and Pakistan have traded heavy gunfire and mortars almost daily across the Line of Control, which divides Kashmir into regions controlled by each side. Many civilians have been killed or wounded in the violence, including eight killed and 14 wounded on Sunday, according to officials.

Each side blames the other. Experts say Pakistan has been testing Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who, in a break with his predecessor, has vowed not to ignore attacks by Pakistan-backed militants on Indian targets. On July 27, gunmen dressed in military fatigues attacked an Indian police station near the border with Pakistan and at least nine people were killed.

The incident came after Mr. Modi met Pakistan’s prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, during a regional meeting in Russia. Pakistan’s army, which draws its power from a constant state of tension with India, has often interfered when political leaders have tried to improve relations between the two countries.

Mr. Modi’s wish to strike back is understandable after many years of Indian restraint. But India, which is considerably stronger and more successful than Pakistan, has the most to lose if another war erupts. Mr. Modi recently became the first Indian prime minister in 34 years to visit the United Arab Emirates, which had been one of Pakistan’s biggest supporters but now sees the value in closer ties with India. In a joint statement, India and the emirates condemned the use of religion to justify terrorism and agreed to cooperate in counterterrorism operations.

In a sign of heightened concern over Kashmir, the United States and the United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, have urged India and Pakistan to exercise restraint and solve their differences through dialogue. They will have a chance to heed that advice when top Indian and Pakistani national security advisers meet later this month.

Riaz Haq said...

#Russia-#Pakistan Mi-35 Contract Could be Expanded For More Helicopters/ Sputnik International … via @SputnikInt

MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The contract on the delivery of four Russian Mi-35 helicopters to Pakistan could be expanded, head of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Second Asia Department Zamir Kabulov said Tuesday.
"It all depends on money. Pakistan has stated that it has the financial means for 10-12 helicopters of this type, but negotiations are ongoing," Kabulov told RIA Novosti.
Moscow and Islamabad are discussing possible supplies of Russian defensive weapons to Pakistan, Kabulov added.
"Pakistan has an interest in other Russian weapon systems. Negotiations are underway. We are talking about defensive systems," Kabulov told RIA Novosti.
In March, Pakistani President Mamnoon Hussain announced Islamabad's intention to expand military-technical commerce with Russia with the purchase of Mi-35 gunships.
In August, a contract for four Mi-35M transport and attack helicopters was signed by Russia's state arms exporter Rosoboronexport and Pakistan's Ministry of Defense, according to a spokesperson for the Russian Embassy in Islamabad.
The Mi-35M (NATO Designation Hind-E) is an upgraded export version of the Mi-24V multipurpose assault helicopter, developed by the Mil Moscow Helicopter Plant.

Read more:

Riaz Haq said...

#US DoD awards #Pakistan gives contract for 15 AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters to Bell Helicopter Co- IHS Jane's 360 …

The US Department of Defense (DoD) has awarded Bell Helicopter a USD581 million contract that includes the delivery of AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters to Pakistan.

The contract, which was announced by the DoD on 26 August but awarded the day before, covers the manufacture and delivery of 15 Lot 12 UH-1Y Venom utility helicopters, 19 Lot 12 AH-1Zs, one Lot 13 UH-1Y, and 21 auxiliary fuel kits for the US Marine Corps (USMC) and government of Pakistan.

Pakistan requested the sale of 15 AH-1Z helicopters in April, and this announcement is the first official confirmation that a deal has been signed. While the notification does not say how many of the 15 helicopters have been signed for at this stage, it states that 10% (USD57.9 million) of the overall contract value covers the sale to the government of Pakistan. This suggests that this is an initial deal for the first two helicopters only, with contracts for the remaining 13 (plus spares and support) to follow.

According to the DoD, these initial helicopters will be delivered by the end of August 2018. The original US Defense Security Co-operation Agency notification of Pakistan's request included 1,000 AGM-114 Hellfire II air-to-surface missiles for "a precision-strike, enhanced-survivability aircraft that can operate at high altitudes. By acquiring this [AH-1Z and Hellfire II] capability, Pakistan will enhance its ability to conduct operations in North Waziristan Agency [NWA], the Federally Administered Tribal Areas [FATAs], and other remote and mountainous areas in all-weather, day and night environments".

The contract notification is the latest development in Pakistan's ongoing efforts to bolster its rotary-winged attack capabilities. As well as procuring the 15 AH-1Zs to bolster and eventually replace its existing 32 AH-1F Cobra platforms, Pakistan has also evaluated the Chinese CHAIG WZ-10 attack helicopters, which has included flying them operationally on counter-terrorism missions, and is rumoured to be interested in the Russian-built Mil Mi-28NE 'Havoc' as well. On 19 August it was announced that Pakistan and Russia had signed a formal agreement for the procurement of four Mi-35 'Hind' attack helicopters, with more likely to follow.

Abhishek Sanyal said...

Mr. Riaz Haq, I can do a lot better in my attempt to impress a girl than you can write to impress Pakistani citizens. It is true that if India and Pakistan go all out on each other, Indian economy will go back several decades but it will recover. Pakistan however, will go back beyond the point of recovery. Pakistan has always been a pain for the entire world. Don't you forget that when you daydream.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan’s Defence Minister on Sunday warned India that it will suffer “heavy losses” which it would “remember for decades” if it tries to “impose” a war on his country.

Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif said “Pakistan’s armed forces will defend every inch of their motherland at every cost”.

He was talking to media during his visit to village Kundunpur along the international border in Sialkot.

“If India tries to impose war on Pakistan, heavy losses will be inflicted on India which it will remember for decades,” the Minister said.

Mr. Asif said “cowardly acts” by Indian forces have strengthened the determination of the nation to defend the motherland, state-run Radio Pakistan reported.

“India’s real face is exposed as it is supporting terrorism in Pakistan and creating tension on borders through unprovoked firing along the working boundary and line of control,” he said.

His comments came in the backdrop of heightened tensions along the border and LoC after Pakistan called off NSA-level talks set for August 23 when India made it clear that discussions on Kashmir and a meeting with separatists will not be acceptable.

Mr. Asif alleged India is diverting attention from its “internal failures” by creating tension on the borders.

He claimed that Pakistan has proof of India’s interference in the country which he said Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif would present at the U.N. General Assembly meeting in September and to the U.S. leadership during his visit there in October.

Riaz Haq said...

Alarmed by #Pakistan's killer drone #Burraq's success, #India to buy attack drones From #Israel For $400 Million …

India will buy 10 armed drones from Israel at a cost of $400 million, the Economic Times reported Friday, citing sources within India’s ministry of defense. Officials from Israel Aerospace Industries were currently in India and exploring joint production of drones, the report added.

The Heron TP drones will be operated by India’s air force, and their procurement was being fast-tracked by India’s federal government. The deal was approved by India last week and the drones might be commissioned within a year, the paper reported.

India, which already uses an unarmed version of the drone for surveillance and intelligence gathering, sees the armed drones giving it an edge in combating cross-border scenarios, the paper reported. They can carry payloads of over 1,000 kilograms (about 2,200 pounds) and will be fitted with air-to-ground missiles.

The drones are particularly useful in attacking targets in scenarios that pose a risk to the lives of soldiers, the newspaper reported, citing the officials.

India is investing in a program to build its own unmanned aerial vehicles, all commonly called drones, but is some years away from actually commissioning one for use in combat, the paper reported.

The program, started in 2006, is being developed by the country’s umbrella organization for defense technology, the Defense Research and Development Organization, and the contract to build the first version, Rustom 1, was awarded to state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited and Bharat Electronics Ltd., Mint newspaper reported in 2010.

In January this year, India invited private companies to take on the serial production of Rustom 2, the second, more advanced version, Defense World reported. The Indian

Riaz Haq said...

Otto von Bismarck once wrote that “fighting preventive war is like committing suicide for the fear of death”. This seems an apt analogy, keeping in mind the current state of military preparedness and nuclear capabilities of India and Pakistan. There is a huge risk that the leaders of the two nuclear states take, when military, and not diplomatic actions, are seen as preferred methods of conflict-resolution. The ‘quick fix military methods’ that India is seeking to employ, using its conventional force by initiating state warfare against perceived non-state actors and an irregular threat can turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is a failed military doctrine, which may invite a counter-military strike by Pakistan. Even a lieutenant knows that when it comes to a military operation, things often don’t go as hoped and planned. Given this, is there any need to play with fire and to willingly disengage and withdraw from demonstrating an ‘all options on the table’ attitude?

Pushing the nuclear threshold is dangerous. Why would India’s army chief speak about a short and swift military action if its military is not preparing itself to execute such a mission? Pakistan, on the other hand, by testing its tactical nuclear weapons has already hinted that it has lowered its nuclear threshold. Why would such weapons be tested if they won’t be used? Which side is bluffing? There are huge responsibilities attached to being a nuclear state and sidestepping these can result in dangerous accidents, unleashing a sequence of events that might be difficult to control.

The core ideology of Nazism was laid out by Adolf Hitler in his autobiography, Mien Kampf. That Hitler-inspired ideology led millions of young men and women to various frontlines and battlefields, and eventually to their deaths. Had President Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, Joseph Stalin and Charles De Gaulle not repeatedly met and spent endless hours in conferences, they would have been unable to set the right goals to meet the threat posed by Hitler.

Terrorism is another form of Nazism and a common enemy of not only India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, but the whole world. Defeating terrorism demands prudence and good political judgment by leaders who are prepared to display the kind of statesmanship demonstrated by the leaders of the day during the Second World War. It shouldn’t take a military catastrophe, millions of deaths and another Hiroshima and Nagasaki-like scenario for the leaderships of India and Pakistan to figure this out — for if it comes to that, it would mean that they didn’t learn anything from history.

Riaz Haq said...

Indian analyst Krishna Kant explains how India's Hindu Nationalist BJP party has unwittingly helped Pakistan by going nuclear:

1. India’s hands and feet are, however, tied behind its back, thanks to nuclear tests by the previous NDA government headed by Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The blasts burnished the macho image of the Bharatiya Janta Party but also allowed Pakistan to go nuclear, forever limiting India’s geostrategic options in the region.

2. History suggests that the threat of a nuclear attack is enough to deter powers from entering into a direct conflict with aggressors. This explains why United States is trying to contain North Korea rather than confront it for it cannot afford a nuclear missile attack on South Korea, Japan or worse on its own Western seaboard.

3. We face a similar situation on our western borders. The threat of a nuclear attack has forced us to raise our tolerance level towards Pakistan military transgressions, both on the border and inside the country. Just count the number and severity of cross-border terrorist attack that India has suffered since the 1999 nuclear tests.

4. After going nuclear, Pakistan’s defence spending decelerated and its share in GDP is expected to be decline to around 2.5% in the current fiscal year, slightly ahead of India’s 2%. This is releasing resources for Pakistan to invest in productive sectors such as infrastructure and social services, something they couldn’t do when they were competing with India to maintain parity in conventional weapons.

5. In this environment, a hard talk by (India's NSA) Mr (Ajit) Doval (India should stop punching “below its weight” and “punch proportionately” instead) followed by a high-decibel drama by the government on the National Security Advisor’s talk between the two countries seems nothing more than a show for the gallery. The audience may be applauding right now, but claps may turn to boos as the public realises the inconsistencies in the script and the pain it inflicts on the hero.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan-#China joint air war games conclude …
A joint air exercise “Shaheen IV” between Pakistan Air force (PAF) and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force, concluded on Saturday at Yinchuan Airbase, China.

Air Vice Marshal Mujahid Anwar Khan, Deputy Chief of Air Staff (Operations) Pakistan Air Force and Lt Gen Zheng Qun Liang Deputy Commander PLA Air Force were also present in the closing ceremony of the exercise.

According to PAF , the exercise was aimed at enhancing bilateral relationship and defence cooperation between both friendly neighbouring countries.

It was the fourth exercise of Shaheen series which commenced on 12th September, 2015.

It was for the first time that three different types of front line fighter aircraft from various Squadrons of PAF participated in the exercise. (APP)

Srinivasulu Mekala said...

Mr Haq started off scaring the Indians, and also rest of the world, so that when the Indians not scared by Haq's painting of disaster go ahead with their pulverising machine, the rest of the world in order to save themselves have to rush to India, and stop the war. Thanks for showing all the cards in your hand. India will take all you stated into account. But, when we decide to start a war, we would have thought of all eventualities, yet we will be ready to face ALL CONSEQUENCES. Mr. Haq, if we are forced into a war, we will fight it, whatever the consequences. In India, now patriotism is to be ready for MAD. You can not scare us with even a million Atom Bums.

Riaz Haq said...

Retired General Hoon of #India reveals Brasstacks was prep for invasion of #Pakistan by #Indian Army Chief in 1987 …

Operation Brasstacks was the army’s preparations for a war against Pakistan and not a military exercise, says Lieutenant General PN Hoon (retired), who was the then commander-in-chief of the Western Command. The revelation was made by the veteran during the launch of his book, “The Untold Truth”, on Saturday evening.
In the book, Lt Gen Hoon has revealed behind-the-scene politics of major operations and events that took place during his 40-year service in the army. While in one chapter, the author has called the Operation Blue Star a “botched-up operation”, in another chapter he has revealed that Operation Brasstacks was a “war against Pakistan”.
“I have written about operations I have been part of and no one else knows about till today,” said the author.
The chapter 9 of the book reveals the inside story of Operation Brasstacks. It was in peacetime in January 1987 that the Indian Army began moving to the western border carrying live ammunition. The citizens were told that it was an exercise. The book suggests that “it could only be a preparation for a war”
Talking about the operation, Lt Gen PN Hoon said, “Brasstacks was no military exercise, it was a plan to build up a situation for a fourth war with Pakistan. And what is even more shocking is that the then Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi, was not aware of these plans of a war.”
The author said that it was General Sundarji’s (the then chief of army staff) and minister of state for defence Arun Singh’s plan to provoke Pakistan “into launching an offensive in Kashmir”.
“... an attack on Kashmir would be an attack on India and in the garb of the exercise that India was already conducting, India would go into a full-fledged war with Pakistan,” reads the chapter.
Lt Gen Hoon said that it was during a dinner party on January 15, 1987, (Army Day) that the PM came to know about the exercise.
“Rajiv Gandhi asked me, ‘How is the western front?’ To this I replied, “Mr Prime Minister, sir. The western army is in fine fettle and very soon I shall be past our battle stations and will give you Sind on one side and Lahore (Pakistan) on the other,”said the author.
“Rajiv was totally aghast and visibly angered. He left the party immediately. The PM did not want to go into a war. Hence, on January 20, Sundarji, pleaded me to stop moving forward,”he added.
When asked as to why Arun Singh and Sundarji would want a war while keeping the PM in the dark, Lt Gen Hoon said: “It was a power game. Sundarji wanted to become a Field Marshal and Arun Singh wanted to become the Prime Minister.”
Apart from these issues, the book reveals behind-the-scene politics when India was forced to take over Sikkim. The author has tried to expose the true nature of political mindset, which should have been protecting the economic, political and strategic interests of the country.
The author also reveals that how President Giani Zail Singh was planning to take the help of the army in dismissing Rajiv Gandhi. “The army had a role to play in the plans to dismiss Rajiv Gandhi. The conflict between the former President Giani Zail Singh and then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was well known by all. But what is still not known is the real politics that continued during the period and how army was involved in all this,” mentions the book.

Srinivasulu Mekala said...

If Gen PN Hoon was a fictitious character in a novel, and said the same narrative, in the same language, I would have thought him as a comic character with almost zero IQ. But he is real. The book will fetch him a minimum of a crore rupees in white from with in India, sensationalism seems to be the motive. Of course more number of pirated copies will be sold in Pakistan. Having said that, one of my grievance is assuaged after reading about Gen Sunderji. I always have been furious of top generals and decision making politicians who were reluctant to act against Pakistan. They always needed severe provocation and outright attacks from Pakistan cornering India without a choice, to wake up into reaction mode. Now this revelation about Gen Sunderji, his proactiveness, is a bit reassuring. If war is inevitable, better be done with it soon, then those of us who survive can keep busy in regrouping. If we are afraid of death and destruction, we have no business to maintain armies.

Riaz Haq said...

Is U.S. Trying To Make Up To Pakistan?

A little too late?
Although US has agreed to provide Pakistan precision strike capabilities in the near future, one has to question if it’s a really desperate move from Washington to patch things up with a country that is slowly slipping away from its influence?

American policymakers do realize that they have to change their mindset toward Pakistan but on the same hand, they need to realize that the Pakistani authorities would definitely have a trick up their sleeves and will use USA’s efforts as a great chance to fill the gaps it has in its defensive and offensive capabilities while also making sure that a major chunk of assistance is taken from Moscow and Beijing.

U.S trying to retain an ally?
Since its early days, Pakistan has been always an important ally for Pentagon, thanks to its geographical location. And in the coming years, Pakistan’s importance to US cannot be ignored. However, broken promises and duality has really started costing US and it is high time for Washington to wake up before the damage it has done is irrevocable.

Currently US shuffling across the board and doing all it can in a bid to stop the Chinese armada that has already become so influential in Pakistani policy and they are unsuccessful in doing it. With the growing economic corporation with Beijing and rapidly growing bilateral ties with Moscow, has forced Washington to offer Pakistan gifts that China and Russia cannot. And although this is going to help Pakistan from a defensive point of view, it is basically US making attempts to keep a bird in its cage like it has for years.

The growing power of eastern block is alarming for Washington, as not only economically but also militarily, they are getting strong and forming alliances that will help challenge America’s global presence and influence. This alliance can shift the economic hub and can tilt the balance of power towards the east. Though it is not simple as it sounds but the reality is that it is happening, albeit at a slow pace.

Now, it is up to US policymakers how they want to change all that. Changing the tone towards Pakistan might be a good start indeed!

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan Army to increase intake of cadets at PMA. Set to grow in size to tackle security challenges

ISLAMABAD: The army has decided to increase the intake of cadets at its premier training institute — Pakistan Military Academy in Kakul — by around one third, which potentially sets the ground for increase in its (army’s) size.

During his visit to PMA Kakul on Wednesday, Army Chief Gen Raheel Sharif reviewed the progress in this regard.

“The visit focused on reviewing the current training regime for cadets and PMA’s capacity enhancement projects including progress work on the 4th Pakistan Battalion,” a statement by the ISPR said.

Know more: Afghan army cadets arrive in Pakistan for training

The PMA, which currently has three battalions, annually inducts two batches of around 500 cadets each. The addition of a fourth battalion would mean that up to 150 more cadets would be inducted in each batch.

The Kakul academy annually inducts two batches of around 500 cadets each
The cadets after completing their training at the academy are commissioned in the army as officers.

The increase in officer cadre is expected to lead to a proportional increase in the number of troops.

No timeline was given for the setting up of the new battalion at PMA, but insiders say the academy could be ready for the increased intake within 12-18 months.

Gen Sharif was quoted in the statement as having emphasised “the need to remain abreast with the latest regional and global environment and developments”.

A military analyst said that the increase in the size of military was being necessitated by its continuing involvement in tribal areas, where troops are expected to stay at least till 2019; the creation of a security division for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor; and increased requirement of officers for paramilitary forces like Frontier Corps and Rangers. Additionally, troops are getting increasingly engaged with UN peacekeeping operations and disaster relief operations.

India’s aggressive posture towards Pakistan is also a cause of concern.

A military spokesman, meanwhile, said that the army was already facing a shortage of officers and the increased induction would help overcome that requirement.

The current size of the army is believed to be around 500,000 active troops. Army’s publicly known budget for the current fiscal year 2015-16 is Rs371 billion. The military’s budget has been on an average growing by around 11 per cent.

It is a slow process of course. It will take at least 5-10 years to implement this change as it inducts an extra battalion of officers each year, currently PMA trains 3 battalions of officers. That is a significant increase in size.

Why do you guys think Pak Army is increasing it's size?

Here are possible reasons:

1. The incoming troops might be deployed in three Strike Corps with offensive objectives in any future war.
2. These troops might be for a future Expeditionary Force with foreign deployment planned. The situation in middle east is becoming worse day by day, and we might deploy these soldiers to KSA or other battlefields in the Middle East.
3. Pakistan is forming a new branch of Army. With new deadly weapons like Nasr being inducted, Pak Fauj might need a new artillery corps with a very specific purpose in mind.
4. Might need extra troops to permanently secure our Eastern border with Afghanistan, as you may already know, currently Pakistan has deployed 150,000 soldiers in KPK and FATA. With these incoming troops, we can turn our focus back to our herbivorous neighbors.
5. The new troops may be used to secure CPEC. But i feel that is highly unlikely, the number of troops deployed by FC are sufficient.


Srinivasulu Mekala said...

Good for Pakistan. They certainly need double the strength of their armed forces. They need at least 43% of their GDP to be spent on their armed forces. In India, from among the civil society we are thinking of the protective measures, stocking, and other related issues, as a non-governmental efforts of the civic society. We must have one last and final decisive war, all out and with a clear winner and loser. It is justified on both sides to make preparations for that. Let the survivor live in peace.

Riaz Haq said...

Mekala: "They need at least 43% of their GDP to be spent on their armed forces."

India's flawed policies have helped Pakistan go nuclear and establish strategic parity with a nuclear dividend.

India threw away its substantial conventional military edge over Pakistan when the Hindu Nationalist government of Atal Bihari Vajapayee decided to carry out its nuclear tests in 1998. It gave Pakistan the justification it needed to go nuclear a few weeks later, thereby achieving balance of terror with its much larger neighbor with a huge conventional military.

Indian analyst Krishna Kant explains his country's policymakers blunder as follows: "Nuclear weapons have reduced Pakistan defense cost while we (India) have been forced to spend tens of billions of dollars to acquire latest military hardware in a bid to retain the edge. Its shows in the defence budget of the two countries since 1999 nuclear blasts. All through 1980s and 90s, Pakistan was spending around a third of its government budget and 5-6% of its GDP on defence, or about twice the corresponding ratios for India. After going nuclear, Pakistan’s defence spending decelerated and its share in GDP is expected to be decline to around 2.5% in the current fiscal year, slightly ahead of India’s 2%. This is releasing resources for Pakistan to invest in productive sectors such as infrastructure and social services, something they couldn’t do when they were competing with India to maintain parity in conventional weapons."

ayush kumar said...

Best of luck .India will talk to Pakistan after 2025 .till then no talk .after 2030 India will be 10 trillion dollar economy and China will be 24 while USA will be 22 .German will be 5 ,Japan ,6.7 ,Brits 4 so India will be 3rd largest even on ppp basis .its milatery spending will be 250 billion .while Pakistan will be 600 billion economy by then .comparing Pakistan with India is worse than comparing India with USA .USA economy even in nominal term is 17 trillion while Indian economy is 2.3 trillion .if ppp us taken into account its 8 trillion .Pakistan economy is is just 250 billion .India produced 100 times more steel ,200 times more cement ,15 times more electricity than Pakistan. In agricultural goods India is 2nd largest producer after CHina .come to blockade portion .India has 45 big surface warship .just wondering how Pakistani submarine of last decade can even sneak into area patrolled by Boeing poseiden p8 .your submarine hunters are junks from 1970s with none of latest tech while Indian Boeing poseiden is best available submarine hunter in world .so Indian poesiden will keep out your submarine from equation .then comes india n anti submarine kamorta class coverttes .how will your navy counter brahmos and barak 8 combo .have you got any answer to that .final touch will be given Indian navy aircraft carrier ensuring complete blockade .everyone knows your energy crisis .now come to aircraft .your jf17 is a junk which even Chinese rejected .Chinese backbone fighter is still old generation of Indian sukhoi su30mki .that all. Sum your milatery capabilities .just wondering which of your awacs are comparable to phalcon .your awacs are junk which only poor countries uses .Chinese gave you some old junk from their inventory .India has s300 Sam's and phalcon with both range above 300 km that means all main Pakistani airbase and cities are under Indian Sam cover and every single aircraft taking off from Pakistan is under Indian radar and Sam range while Pakistan donot have such advantage .within first hour of war Indian Sam will take out all Pakistani aircraft by just staying inside Indian border while Pakistan donot have Sam's with range of 1000 km for deep Indian bases which house sukhois .after aircraft come to missiles. Do you know India has functional missile shield .now you will give link from report of 2012 or2013 that it lacks .but it is 2015 and India has almost all Sam's and anti missile weapon available in this world while your Pakistan us naked which means all of Indian missiles will land in Pakistan .India has missile of range to target mars which tell capabilities in missile .now come to most modern form of warfare .that is emp weapons. India has emp weapons which will fry all electrical and electronics circuit when used at any target .India also has 30 milatery grade satellites .with emp weapons in play Pakistan will be in total blackout after first few minutes of war .in fact 90% of Pakistani military equipment will be of no use after Indian emp weapon fired .all your missile will be just junk without their electrical and electronics circuit .your nation donot have enough satellites to have comand and control and all those satellites will be taken out by Indian anti satellites weapons. Your Pakistan donot have a single emp weapons. .

Srinivasulu Mekala said...

Mr Haq,
I am not inclined to disagree with you. To be very frank, I want you to truly believe in what you say. We are playing a chess game. The game is not over after two moves, nor will it be over when one player says it is "over". The game will be over when one is conclusively defeated and the other declared and acknowledged as a winner. Now coming to the brass tacks, please do not selectively quote some Indian, who is not known in India. Let us not discuss someone else's comment, let us make our own arguments. First, we exploded the nuclear weapon exclusively to verify whether Pakistan possesses similar capability and we knew Pakistan was itching to do that. It is ridiculous and knave to think that a covert nuclear capability of Pakistan will remain unutilised when need arises purely for the reason of such capability not being overt. So, making you overt or keeping your capability covert would in any case not alter the situation. Now the game starts. Nuclear threshold is a poker game. It is not defined with mutual agreement, this is different for India, and different for Pakistan too. Pakistan has been bragging about the use of Atom Bums, and India covertly allowed, rather encouraged such bragging. Now our foreign policy is dictated on a framework painfully conceived and continuity maintained irrespective of the regime change. Same is not the case with Pakistan. Terrorism, invented through religious fundamentalism and carefully groomed as an instrument of state policy has become an albatross around Pakistan's neck. A number of chess game moves are thought over along with Pakistani counter moves, and lined up to be unfolded after every future move of Pakistan. Since I am not in the business of scaring Pakistan with wild imaginations or otherwise, I am not going to talk about them. The net argument is despite having you, your terrorism, around us, we are moving forward. We can do similar move forward as long as we want despite your future acts. Terrorism, infiltration, border violence are no more going to be strengths and means of blackmail for Pakistan to drag us to the dialogue table. Please remember, your defence budget went up to 57% of GDP post 1965 war for some time. Despite your nuclear arsenal, either you will be forced to spend similar amounts now, or start minding your own business as a good neighbour. We know that our strength is in getting ready for an all out nuclear war, and vanquish or get vanquished once for all. There is no more room left out to push us even one more inch, we are on the wall. Choice is yours, best of luck. "Fortune and luck favor the brave". One last point, not even one single square inch of land will be ceded from India, let heavens fall or qayamat arrive prematurely.

Srinivasulu Mekala said...

Mr Haq,
I do not agree with Ayush Kumar's comments. Wars are never won by boasting. I am not war mongering, but I welcome a "final deciding" war. It should be called mother of all wars. One point which is part of my chess game move plan, is China's involvement, which I have taken into consideration. You know China as your "all weather" friend. But I know China better than Pakistan, because I faced it for four years as "all weather" enemy. During 1971 I entered China and was ready for fireworks. Whatever the reasons, they made more sounds on the radio than on the ground. Their performance was damp squib. I was disappointed since best of the troops were not on Pakistan border, but on China border. They know we are waiting for them through Pakistan. You are welcome to start things jointly, we do not mind.

ayush kumar said...

Chinese equation in that geopolitical game is all against USA not against India .CHinese knows that they can't risk India siding westerner. Remember both brics and aiib bank control has been given to India by CHina .in fact in big economic war which is currently ongoing on global platform like imf and world bank and others .India is right hand of CHina .without Indian help CHina will be all alone .and on those platform Pakistan donot even count. For Chinese purchase of gwadar India has purchased oil block in south CHina sea from Vietnam .for Chinese naval base in gwadar India is building its own in chahbahar and in Vietnam .infact India has posted 12 warship continuously in south CHina sea to protect Vietnam and Indian oil assets .your Pakistan media barks a lot on cpec but donot even dare to talk over north south transport corridor .that tells all about how much threatened you ppl feels .

Riaz Haq said...

White House: US Set to Sell 8 New F-16 Fighter Jets to #Pakistan in Bid to Bolster Partnership. #Obama #NawazSharif

The Obama administration is preparing to sell eight new F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan, senior American officials said, an overture intended to bolster a tenuous partnership despite persistent concerns about Islamabad’s ties to elements of the Taliban and quickly expanding nuclear arsenal.

The decision comes ahead of President Obama’s meeting on Thursday with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, which is to be dominated by the president’s decision to extend the American troop presence in Afghanistan and a quiet effort to get Mr. Sharif to halt the deployment of a new generation of tactical nuclear weapons.

But Mr. Obama, like President George W. Bush before him, is trying to balance pressure on Pakistan with signs that Washington still considers it a vital ally. Congress was notified just days ago about the proposed sale of the additional fighters, although it is not clear if the White House plans to announce the sale of the aircraft during the visit.

The Federation of American Scientists, a leading American group that monitors the spread of nuclear weapons, published a report on Wednesday that shows that Pakistan has expanded its arsenal to 110 to 130 warheads, up from a range of 90 to 110 four years ago.

While those figures show a steady but expected increase, the group estimated that by 2025 the figure would rise to 220 to 250 warheads. That would make Pakistan the world’s fifth-largest nuclear power, behind the United States, Russia, China and France, but ahead of Britain, which is shrinking its arsenal.

It is the nature, not the size, of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal that tops Mr. Obama’s agenda. Over the past two weeks, officials in Washington have said they are exploring whether a deal might be possible to halt the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons that American experts fear are vulnerable to being launched without authorization, or stolen, on the battlefield. Until earlier this week Pakistani officials had said nothing about the program, although the foreign secretary, Aizaz Chadhary, told reporters in Islamabad on Tuesday that the country had built “low-yield nuclear weapons” to counter India, according to the Dawn, a major daily newspaper in Pakistan.

It is unlikely that either side will talk publicly about nuclear weapons on Thursday, but Mr. Obama plans to raise the issue at length, according to administration officials. Selling Pakistan more arms, however, is an issue that is often discussed more publicly to signal that Pakistan is acting in its role as a “major non-NATO ally,” a designation Mr. Bush bestowed after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

The new aircraft, whose sale could be blocked by Congress, would add to Pakistan’s already sizable force of fighter jets — it has more than 70 F-16s and dozens of French and Chinese attack aircraft. But perhaps of equal importance to supporters and critics alike is the symbolic value of the sale to an ally whose relationship with the United States has been marked by long stretches of acrimony in recent years.

Much of the tension has arisen from Pakistan’s ties to elements of the Taliban, especially the Haqqani Network, which is linked to Al Qaeda and is seen by American commanders as the most deadly faction of the Taliban fighting in Afghanistan. In recent years, numerous American officials have publicly and privately complained about the support to the Haqqanis provided by Pakistan’s main spy agency, the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence.

Riaz Haq said...

#NawazSharif says #India's hostile actions, statemets and arms buildup compel #Pakistan countermeasures via @Reuters

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said on Friday Pakistan would be forced to take "countermeasures" to deter against any attacks, given a major arms buildup by neighboring India and its refusal to resume talks over Kashmir.

"While refusing dialogue, India is engaged in a major arms buildup, regrettably with the active assistance of several powers," Sharif said in a speech to the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington.

"It has adopted dangerous military doctrines. This will compel Pakistan to take several countermeasures to preserve credible deterrence."

Sharif charged that a "cancellation" of talks between the nuclear-armed countries had been followed by increased ceasefire violations by India across the Line of Control dividing Pakistani and Indian Kashmir.

He said there had also been "a stream of hostile statements by the Indian political and military leadership."

Sharif, who held talks with President Barack Obama in Washington on Thursday, said there was a need to resume dialogue with India and urged the United States to be more understanding of Pakistan's position in the interests of regional stability.

"I believe a close review of some of the existing assumptions and analysis and greater attention to Pakistan's views and interests would be useful in enabling Washington to play a constructive role in averting the ever present danger of escalation and promoting stability in South Asia," he said.

Sharif did not define "countermeasures," but on Thursday, Obama urged Pakistan to avoid developments in its nuclear weapons program that could increase risks and instability.

Washington, which like Russia is major arms supplier to India, has been concerned about Pakistan's development of new nuclear weapons, including small tactical nuclear weapons.

It had been trying to persuade Sharif to make a unilateral declaration of "restraint" on nuclear development, but Pakistani officials said Islamabad will not accept limits to its weapons program and argued that smaller tactical nuclear weapons are needed to deter a sudden attack by India.

Sharif and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed in July to revive talks, but escalating tensions over Kashmir, which both countries claim in full but rule only in part, derailed the plans.

Earlier on Friday, India's foreign ministry spokesman welcomed Pakistan's pledge in a joint statement with the United States on Thursday to fight militant groups Delhi suspects of attacking Indian targets, but ruled out any third-party mediation to end the Kashmir dispute.

The spokesman, Vikas Swarup, said India "remains open" to talks between the two countries' national security advisers.

Mark Toner, a U.S. State Department spokesman, told a regular Washington news briefing that Pakistan's tensions with India needed to be addressed and this would be best done "through continued dialogue between the two countries."

In Thursday's statement, the United States and Pakistan expressed their commitment to the Afghan peace process and called on Taliban leaders to enter direct talks with Kabul, which have stalled since inaugural discussions in Pakistan in July.

On Friday, Sharif said he had told Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Pakistan was prepared to help revive the talks. But he added: "We cannot bring the Taliban to the table and be asked to kill them at the same time."

Sharif did not elaborate, but was apparently referring to U.S. calls for Pakistan to crack down on Taliban sanctuaries within Pakistan.

Riaz Haq said...

Declassified US documents reveal #India planned attack on #Pakistan nuclear facilities at #Kahuta in 1985. #nukes …

Last week, the US State department declassified its top-secret documents from 1984-85 which focus on the Pakistani nuclear programme. The CIA analysis, and the talking points for the US Ambassador to Islamabad while handing over President Ronald Reagan’s letter to General Zia-ul Haq, show that the US warned Pakistan about an Indian military attack on the Pakistani nuclear reactor at Kahuta. But the Americans were not alone in anticipating an Indian attack. Prof Rajesh Rajagopalan of JNU recently pointed to The End of the Cold War and the Third World: New Perspectives on Regional Conflict, a book by Sergey Radchenko and Artemy M. Kalinovsky based on the declassified documents of the Eastern Block. Radchenko says that documents in the Hungarian archives show that the Soviets had shared with the Hungarians India’s plans to attack Kahuta. It is not clear though, Rajagopalan says, if the Soviets actually had access to any Indian plans or were only reporting widespread rumours. The rumours were indeed widespread, and The Washington Post had run a front-page story on December 20, 1982 headlined, ‘India said to eye raid on Pakistan’s A-plants’. It said military advisers had proposed an attack to prime minister Indira Gandhi in March 1982 but she had rejected it. In his book, India’s Nuclear Policy —1964-98: A Personal Recollection, K Subrahmanyam recollected that the Indian proposal to Pakistan for non-attack on each other’s nuclear facilities, which he suggested to Rajiv Gandhi, was an outcome of such rumours in the Western media. Although the ‘Agreement on the Non-Attack of Nuclear Facilities between Indian and Pakistan’ was first verbally agreed upon in 1985, it was formally signed in 1988 and ratified in 1991. Since 1992, India and Pakistan have been exchanging the list of their nuclear facilities on January 1 every year. -

But how close was India to attacking Kahuta in the 1980s? The first time India is believed to have considered such an attack is in 1981. The idea obviously originated from the daring Israeli attack of June 7, 1981, that destroyed the under-construction Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak. Eight F-16s of the Israeli Air Force flew more than 600 miles in the skies of three enemy nations to destroy the target and returned unscathed. In 1996, WPS Sidhu, senior fellow for foreign policy at Brookings India, was the first to state that after the induction of Jaguars, Indian Air Force (IAF) had conducted a brief study in June 1981 on the feasibility of attacking Kahuta. The study concluded that India could “attack and neutralise” Kahuta but feared that such an attack would result in a full-blown war between India and Pakistan. This was besides the concerns that an Indian attack will beget an immediate retaliatory — some say, even pre-emptive

Riaz Haq said...

#India’s #Tejas, the single worst fighter jet project ever in the history of aviation. No match for #Pakistan #JF17 …

The Obama Administration is gearing up to sell eight new Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon jets to Pakistan, the New York Times reports. Those jets will add to Pakistan’s fleet of seventy-six existing “Vipers” as the type is colloquially known. Meanwhile, its arch-nemesis India’s air force shrinks by the day as planes age out and squadron are disbanded.

Assuming Pakistan completes the sale, the eight F-16s would help boost that country’s fleet of eighteen existing advanced Block 52+ Vipers. The rest of the Pakistani F-16 fleet consists of modified A-model jets that have been upgraded to Block 15 MLU standard, which bring those aircraft nearly up to the same capability as the newest Block 52+ jets.

India is currently negotiating to buy thirty-six Rafales directly from the French government; a deal is allegedly imminent by the end of the year. But given India’s track record—that’s dubious at best. But the Indian air force still needs at least 120 medium combat aircraft with similar capability to the Rafale. Indeed, the Indians still hope to buy more Rafales, but they might have to extend production of the indigenous Tejas to keep their fleet numbers up.

But the problem with India’s HAL Tejas is that it is one of the single worst fighter projects that has ever been conceived of in the history of aviation. Even as it enters service, the aircraft is obsolete and is probably inferior in many respects to the JF-17. The jet has 57 known deficiencies and will probably get a lot of Indian pilots killed if any type of conflict were ever to break out.


Meanwhile, the one bright spot for the Indian air force is the Sukhoi Su-30MKI. While the Indians have had some issues with the Russians in supporting the Flanker-H, the 220 Su-30s that are currently in service are that country’s first line of defense. India will ultimately buy 272 Flanker-H fighters, but it should give serious consideration to extending that buy until its air force recovers some of its numerical strength. Basically, India should consider scrapping the Tejas and buying 120 or more additional Flankers.

In the future, the Indians are likely to buy a derivative of Russia’s T-50 PAK-FA stealth fighter. But the Indian-Russian co-development effort is a rocky one—and it is unclear how many jets will ultimately be delivered to the Indian air force and when. India is also developing it’s own fifth-generation fighter—but given it’s previous efforts on the Tejas, it’s not likely to fly any time soon.

Riaz Haq said...

In #India-#Pakistan Conflict, the Stakes Are Higher Than Ever | Stratfor. #Modi #BJP #Nukes …


Indian and Pakistani military doctrines that evolved over the past decade will greatly raise the stakes in any future Indo-Pakistani conflict.
Pakistan will continue to invest in tactical nuclear weapons to use on the battlefield to compensate for India's growing conventional military advantage.
Introducing battlefield nuclear weapons will lower the threshold of nuclear weapons use while raising the possibility of a full nuclear exchange on the Indian subcontinent.

Ever since India adopted a proactive military strategy toward Pakistan in 2004, Islamabad has felt increasingly threatened and has sought to rely more on its nuclear arsenal as a counter, elevating the stakes for conflict in the Indian subcontinent. Despite political constraints to nuclear conflict, New Delhi and Islamabad's evolving doctrines and force postures have lowered the barrier for a nuclear conflict. For instance, on Oct. 19, Pakistani Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhry officially confirmed Islamabad's plans to use low-yield nuclear weapons to impede advancing Indian troops under New Delhi's "Cold Start" doctrine.

Cold Start — a rapid military response doctrine — is technically not an official Indian policy. In fact, Indian military leaders deny the existence of Cold Start as a concept, attributing the terminology to off-the-cuff remarks by Indian officers. Nevertheless, during the past decade India has adopted a strategy that has greatly alarmed Pakistan, driving Islamabad to invest in tactical nuclear weapons and alter its own nuclear posture.

Changes in India's Strategy

From Indian independence in 1947 until 2004, the Indian military had maintained a largely defensive military strategy on the border with Pakistan, relying on deployed border units until it mobilized forces for a counteroffensive. For example, the Sundarji Doctrine set up by former Indian Chief of the Army Staff Gen. Krishnaswamy Sundarji in the early 1980s called for a largely static defense along the Pakistani border with seven infantry-heavy "holding corps" backed by a few mobile units that would respond to any enemy penetrations of the Indian lines. As the Indian holding corps weakened attacking Pakistani units, India would then mobilize its own offensive forces in central India, consisting of three heavily armored "strike corps" that would counterattack deep into Pakistan under the protection of the Indian air force, which would be expected to have gained air superiority by this time.

Pakistan's Reaction

Islamabad is aware of the widening gap in conventional military capabilities between itself and India and is further troubled by more frequent fighting with insurgents on its frontier with Afghanistan that could create a two-front commitment. Unable to match India's growing military investments, Pakistan has taken an asymmetric approach to the new threat, building up and relying on an arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons.

Understanding India's rapid response doctrine (Cold Start) could also galvanize terrorists into attempting to trigger India's Cold Start, as was apparently the case with Lashkar-e-Taiba's 2008 Mumbai attacks. Pakistan's dependence on tactical nuclear weapons greatly expands the risk of a disastrous nuclear confrontation in the subcontinent as well, enhancing the potential for the use of nuclear weapons in either a real or perceived Cold Start offensive. The stakes are now much higher in any potential Indo-Pakistani conflict.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan Army is most battle-hardened: General Raheel Sharif. #India #Modi #TTP #Taliban #Terrorism … via @ibnlive

Pakistan's Army chief General Raheel Sharif on Saturday said his troops are the most battle-hardened and their achievements against terrorism are acknowledged globally.

The Chief of Army Staff said while addressing the closing ceremony of the third Physical Agility and Combat Efficiency Championship held near Attock in Punjab, army said in a statement.

He said Pakistani soldiers were way above the international standards as per the guidelines followed worldwide. "Our overwhelming achievements in fight against terrorism speak volumes of our professional competence, which has also been acknowledged globally," he said.
"Physical fitness helps in improving self-confidence and competence of a soldier," he said.

He lauded the performance, competitive spirit and efforts of both trainers and trainees in achieving remarkable standards.
"All teams participated with extraordinary vigour and demonstrated highest level of motivation, agility and physical fitness," he said.
The army chief appreciated the soldiers setting new records and encouraged them to participate in national and international events.
He also said that training was heart and soul of combat readiness, which contributed positively towards success on the battlefield.

Riaz Haq said...

Former Indian Army Chief Late Field Marshal Maneckshaw speaks. "The Pakistan Army in East Pakistan fought very gallantly. But they had no chance. They were a thousand miles away from their base. And I had eight or nine months to make my preparations [while they were being worn out in a counter insurgency war against the secessionist forces of the Mukti Bahini]. I had a superiority of almost fifty-to-one." From the BBC archives.

Ghalib said...

Sir, J 10 is not a 5th generation aircraft, the J20 could possibly be but still under development. The Sukhoi MKI is a very lethal platform as has many systems from Israel and France also integrated besides the best of Russian technology. The upgrades Sukhoi to SU 35 standard has no known equal besides the F-22. So respectfully Pakistan has no match in airforce also. Plus very important factor is that if Karachi port is destroyed by our missiles, Pakistan will run out of fuel with a couple of weeks. India has a lot of strategic depth which Pakistan does not. To be fair your artillery with the 155mm 52 calibre guns are far better than our obsolete artillery at the moment as India has not been able to upgrade due to the bofors scam.

Riaz Haq said...

A General who led the Indian Army on ground in the Kargil conflict, has broken his 11-year silence to say that he believes India actually lost the war in strategic terms.

In an exclusive interview to NDTV, Lieutenant-General Kishan Pal, who was then the head of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps, says India has failed to consolidate its tactical gains.

Asked for his assessment of the conflict 11 years later, Gen Pal told NDTV: "Well for 11 years I did not speak at all...I did not speak because I was never convinced about this war, whether we really won it...We did gain some tactical victories, we regained the territories we lost, we lost 587 precious lives. I consider this loss of war because whatever we gained from the war has not been consolidated, either politically or diplomatically. It has not been consolidated militarily."

Gen Pal was recently in a controversy involving the battle performance report of one of his juniors, Brigadier Devinder Singh.

Speaking to NDTV, the then Army chief General VP Mailk refused to get into the debate but said there was little doubt who won that war. (Watch: Kargil war ended on our terms: Gen VP Malik)

Riaz Haq said...

Farooq Abdullah: #India Does Not Have the Power to "Retrieve #Pakistan-Occupied #Kashmir" (Azad Kashmir) … via @ndtv

SRINAGAR: Former Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah on Wednesday defended his assertion that "Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK) is part of Pakistan and will remain with it", saying neither New Delhi has the power to retrieve that side of the divided line, nor would Islamabad be able to take this part of Kashmir.

"After doing politics all these years, I do not see that we have the power to retrieve that (PoK) or they (Pakistan) can retrieve this (J-K)," Mr Abdullah, who is also the president of opposition National Conference (NC), told reporters in Srinagar.

He said by that formula Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir" will become Pakistan's region with the similar autonomy that we have and by that then the borders will become easy and everybody from here can have access to that place and everybody from that Kashmir can have access to this place".

"So, we can trade, our boys can marry girls from there and their boys can marry girls from here. It will be, you know, like a joint a joint family. That will settle many of problems of India and Pakistan.

"Once this is acceptable, then we will not need all the troops here and they will not need to put all the troops there. And we will have a happy situation," he said.

Mr Abdullah said the only "trouble" with that solution is that the "shops of those who want the situation in Jammu and Kashmir to remain as such will close down."

"They are surviving because of the division and their shops will close once there is a solution," he said, referring to those who criticised his remarks.

Reacting to the criticism of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the former Union Minister said it was a suggestion put forth by former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who belonged to the BJP.

"Vajpayee went to Pakistan via bus and he spoke to (Pakistan Prime Minister) Nawaz Sharif. He suggested him to keep that (PoK) and we will keep this (J-K).

"He was BJP PM, was he not? When he gave this suggestion then, why are they (BJP) enraged now? If they have any other solution and they think they can occupy that (PoK) by military might, why are they not doing that then?" Mr Abdullah asked.

Mr Abdullah said his party would support any other solution which could help in creating good relations between India and Pakistan.

"I believe if there is any other solution which can create good relations among Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh and India and Pakistan, National Conference has no problem in accepting that. I have said this earlier several years ago and I will continue saying this," he said.

The National Conference president said dialogue is the only option to address all issues.

"Dialogue is the only solution. There is no other solution. We have had so many wars, did that solve our problems? Is there any other way by which you think there will be a solution. I do not see it," he said.

He said Prime Ministers of India and Pakistan have realised that there is no alternative to dialogue.

"Now after my remarks, what happened by the God's grace. India and Pakistan premiers met in Paris with love.

It is because there is no other solution (than dialogue)," he said.

He said it is the people of Kashmir on both sides who are dying because of the situation. "One explosion here and tourism disappears. What industries we have here. Shopkeepers, houseboats, hotels are sitting idle, there is no business.

"They have the fear of terrorism. When will this end? When will we sleep at ease?" he said.

Mr Abdullah said he was a free citizen and would not apologise to anyone over his remarks.

"I am not going to apologise to anybody, I am a free citizen of this country and as a free citizen I put my view.

Riaz Haq said...

#PAF Chief: "Pakistan to get 5th generation fighter jets within 5 yrs" Stealth, Avionics, Air Frame, Integration

Pakistan will acquire the fifth generation multi-role fighter aircraft from the international market but, for the time being, it will devote its full attention on its state-of-the-art JF-17 Thunder to make it the most effective of its generation.

It has been revealed by Chief of the Air Staff (CAS) Air Chief Marshal Sohail Aman while talking exclusively with The News here on Wednesday evening. He said that Pakistan wouldn’t lag behind the countries of the region in obtaining the fifth generation planes and it has opened negotiations with the US manufacturers for exploring options of buying single engine multirole F-35 viewed as the plane of the next decade.

At least three other options are under consideration. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) could be equipped with aircraft of fifth generation within five years. Air Chief Marshal Sohail Aman said that Indians were buying 126 French Rafale calling them as fifth generation planes but after discussion of years and hitches, they had decided to buy 36 planes at the end of the day and still the deal was in troubled waters.

“I am not prepared to acknowledge Rafale as a plane of the fifth generation since its features are confined to the fourth generation’s planes,” the CAS maintained.

He said that Indian Air Force (IAF), despite having a numerical edge, doesn’t have superiority over Pakistan since Pakistan has planned its air strength in a way where no aggression could work against it. The PAF’s devotion and skill is second to none and for the reason it is graded one of the best air powers of the world, he said.

“We will never let the nation down in any eventuality or test. People have faith in their armed forces and they are very rightly doing so,” he added. He disclosed that Thunder JF-17 was being sold to four countries without disclosing the buyers and number of the planes. He said that it has become difficult to supply all the ordered aircraft within the stipulated time-frame but we will fulfill our obligations.

Riaz Haq said...

This #Pakistan #nuclear missile, Shaheen III with 2,750 Km, can hit targets anywhere in #India. #Nukes #Missiles …

Pakistan test-fired a nuclear-capable ballistic missile on Friday (Dec 11), the military said, two days after the government confirmed it would resume high-level peace talks with arch-rival India.

The military said it had fired a Shaheen III surface-to-surface ballistic missile which can carry nuclear and conventional warheads within a range of 2,750km.

Shaheen-III has a maximum range of 2,750 kilometers (1, 700 miles).

According to Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the test flight was aimed at validating various design and technical parameters of the weapon system.

Pakistan became a declared nuclear power in 1998.

The test was witnessed by senior officers from Strategic Plans Division, Strategic Forces, Scientists and Engineers of Strategic Organisations. He said Pakistan desires peaceful co-existence in the region for which nuclear deterrence would further strengthen strategic stability in South Asia.

It may be noted here that the Shaheen-I and Shaheen-II missiles were test-fired in Pakistan a year ago.

India and Pakistan are longtime foes engaged in a regional arms race, stemming from a conflict dating back to Britain's partitioning of its Indian protectorate into what now are India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan's tool of war: #PAF's rolling thunder #JF17 Fighter Jet

Pakistan Air Force’s thunder
JF-17 is a single-engine multi-role fighter,capable of performing interception roles, ground attack and aerial reconnaissance. The fighter was inducted as a replacement for the ageing fleet A-5C, F-7P, Mirage 3 and Mirage 5 aircraft that were due to be replaced.

The initial Block 1 JF-17s were received in 2007, with production of the upgraded Block 2 JF-17s started in 2013. The upgraded models have upgraded avionics, air-to-air refuelling capability, data link, enhanced electronic warfare capability and enhanced load carrying ability.

The JF-17 is powered by a Russian RD-93 afterburning turbofan, which has a top speed for Mach 1.6. The engine is a derivative of the engine that powers the MIG-29 Fulcrum. With the recent improvement in Pakistan-Russia relations, it might be possible to source the engines directly from Russia, rather than through China. In November it was reported that PAF will stick with using the RD-93, and not opt for a Chinese-made engine.

It was also reported recently that PAF is interested in joint engine development with Russia. The air force for years has wanted to expand its technical capabilities in engine development, as they have lacked the capability in this highly-technical field.

Splash one bandit
The JF-17 can be equipped with air-to-air and air-to-ground ordinance, and has a 23 mm GSh-23-2 twin-barrel cannon mounted under the port side air intake.

The aircraft can carry 8,000lbs of ordinance on seven external hardpoints, which is an adequate amount of ordinance for any mission profile. The JF-17 enhances the much needed capability of the air force in beyond visual range (BVR) engagements.

JF-17 mounts both short-range infra-red air to air missiles along with longer ranged radar-guided BVR missiles, an essential capability for a frontline interceptor. Missiles used on the aircraft come from a variety of different nations.

Apart from a capable air-to-air mix, the aircraft can be fitted with laser-guided, satellite-guided and dumb iron bombs. The precision-guided weapons are paired with a targeting pod, mounted on the centreline hardpoint. JF-17's are also capable of carrying anti-runway munitions, specifically the Durandal, which crater a runway, denying its use to enemy aircraft.

The JF-17 Thunder, when equipped for an anti-maritime mission profile, can be equipped with the C-802 anti-ship missile (ASM) and the hypersonic CM-400AKG, often referred to as a ‘carrier-killer’ ASM. It hits the target at Mach 4 or above and its kinetic impact alone is enough to destroy any high-value target.

For Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD) missions, the Thunder can be equipped with anti-radiation missiles for neutralising the enemy's air defence radars, allowing the PAF to operate in a less restrictive airspace.

Overall, the varying ordinance carried by the JF-17 makes it a capable aircraft for multiple mission profiles.

The JF-17 fighter incorporates a fly-by-wire system, through which the aircraft’s pitch axis is controlled, with leading edge slats/flaps and trailing edge flaps automatically adjusted during maneuvering to increase turning performance. The performance of the jet reportedly is similar to the F-16.

Incorporating a defensive aids system (DAS), sensors such as radar warning receivers (RWR) and missile approach warning (MAW) enable the pilot to have a clear picture of the threats in an operational area. The electronic warfare (EW) suite of the aircraft is mounted in the tail of the JF-17.

It is reported that the pilots can be equipped helmet mounted sights, which gives the pilots a distinct advantage in visual-range air combat, as they can simply look at and guide the missile onto their intended target.

Riaz Haq said...

Strategic Insights from #India: The big power of #Pakistan's little Nasr tactical nuclear missile. #USA …

Aah, you little beauty, you little Nasr, you have finally brought two major powers to their knees, and that too without firing a single shot.
Out there in the US, there is real consternation that this micro-mini Pakistani tactical nuke will fall into the hands of jihadis who would then use it against the American mainland. Washington has spent hundreds of millions of dollars in securing Pakistan’s big, strategic nukes but to the Nasr it has no answers. Why?
Because the Nasr is a javelin-like structure, deployed in the battlefield against tanks, and under the operational command of a brigadier. Think of how many brigadiers there are in Pakistan’s seven hundred thousand-strong army— two hundred, three hundred, five hundred— and that would be the number of tiny Nasrs floating about in the battlefield.


On bended knees, America is imploring Pakistan to get rid of the Nasrs. But Pakistan must have its pound of flesh. Washington is abuzz with a civilian nuclear deal for the Pakistanis. The contours are faint but it seems to involve access to nuclear technology, as well as membership of the nuclear suppliers group, a facility not yet afforded India.
Pakistan insists that the Nasrs are safe and are only for use against India were the latter to implement its Cold Start Doctrine: a rapid ingress of armoured forces into Pakistan, the destruction of a few jihadi camps, and then a steep withdrawal back into India. But so high is the risk associated with a potential leak of the Nasr, that Washington has put pressure on India to talk to Pakistan about Kashmir.
An India that was only willing to talk terror with Pakistan has within the space of a couple of weeks turned turtle to not only talk Kashmir but all aspects of the relationship. Oh, how the Pakistani military must be gloating.

Riaz Haq said...

With or without the #F16s, #Pakistan Air Force will remain a regional game changer. #India #JF17 … via @tribuneblogs

Fighting Falcon F-16, an American built multi-role fighter jet, has enjoyed a deep-rooted relationship with Pakistan for over three decades. Thanks to its design, it offers an almost complete solution to the tactical and narrowed strategic demands of a compact Air Force like Pakistan’s. Its matchless aerodynamics and upgraded avionics put it a notch above its peers of third generation fighters.

The prime factor of its marriage to Pakistani Air Force is its war tested (Afghan-Soviet) history. It was the first advance jet fighter of the American region that became the green tail, replacing the renowned F-86, the Sabre. F-16, just after its induction, was very promptly employed and operationally proved its lethality against one of the world’s superpowers. Exactly like its predecessor, it enjoyed the best multi-role utility and discovered its utmost war potentials in Pakistan than in the US itself. The Americans themselves must have had a jaw-dropping moment when they saw its employment in both tactical and strategic theatres by Pakistan. It was, and still is, the most romantic of unions.

Soon after the Cold War, the US, cautious of its future designs in the region, initially deferred and subsequently cancelled the next F-16 deal with Pakistan. Realising the need for a regional power balance, Pakistan looked for alternatives and focused on its Super Sabre (now the JF-17) program with China. With committed devotion and sheer hard work, it proved to be quite successful. Pakistan became the only Muslim country to design, develop and produce a high-tech modern combat aircraft. This was not expected by the global and regional hegemons.

Pakistan, once again, attempted an F-16 deal with an upgraded package, which due to obvious reasons was overwhelmingly accepted. Meanwhile, the JF-17 program was also pursued with the same diligence. Diplomatic efforts were employed to entice Pakistan into acquiring upgrades from foreign powers and abandon its indigenous development of weapons. Pakistan, however, chose to be self-reliant. Finally, the long awaited dream came true and the JF-17 was fully in service in 2012.

Recent developments in the US Senate, to stall the sale of eight F-16 jets to Pakistan, find their roots in the same fears I’ve mentioned above. The emerging role of Pakistan in the regional tug of war has further raised the apprehension of US policymakers. The increased Indian influence in both the US Congress and Senate has added fuel to the fire by raising false alarms against the Sino-Pak economic handshakes. It is not worthless to highlight that Henry Kissinger’s recent publication “World Order” admits the underestimation of the regional importance of Pakistan as a whole. He further adds that it would now be impossible to arrest the increased role of Pakistan in both regional and Islamic platforms. With sustained and stabilised continuation of diplomatic and strategic policies, Pakistan will perform a copious role in the region.

US congressmen and think-tanks have not realised the obvious reality that the supplementary sale of F-16s will not distract Pakistan from indigenisation but would further strengthen its war potential. The world is also cognisant that Pakistan has embedded the F-16 in its tactical nuke delivery system, which can again be an extremely unconventional potential affecting the new world order in the Middle East. However, Pakistani military minds have already envisaged this development, and have gone far in developing alternative options.

Pakistan is and will remain a regional game changer, now and forever.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan successfully tests Ra’ad air launched cruise missile with 350 km range: ISPR

Pakistan on Tuesday conducted a successful flight test of the indigenously developed Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) – Ra’ad – said the military’s media wing in a statement.

The flight test of the cruise missile, which is also known as Hatf VIII, was the seventh since it was first tested in 2007.

It is essentially a flying bomb, generally designed to carry a large conventional or nuclear warhead many hundreds of miles with high accuracy. Modern cruise missiles can travel at supersonic or high subsonic speed.

These guided missiles are self-navigating and fly on a non-ballistic very low altitude trajectory in order to avoid radar detection.

The most common mission for cruise missiles is to attack relatively high value targets such as ships, command bunkers, bridges and dams. The modern guidance system permits precise attacks.

The Inter-Services Public Relations said Ra’ad, with a range of 350km, “enables Pakistan to achieve air delivered strategic standoff capability on land and at sea.” The missile is approximately five metres long and could weigh up to 1,000kg.

Read: Pakistan's tool of war: Why the Mi-35 Hind-E is an excellent choice

Special “terrain hugging low level flight maneuvers enable it to avoid detection and engagement by contemporary air defence systems,” the statement added.

Cruise technology is extremely complex and has been developed by only a few countries in the world.

The president and the prime minister congratulated the scientists and engineers behind the development for their outstanding achievement on the successful flight test of Ra’ad.

Director General Strategic Plans Division, Lt Gen Mazhar Jamil, termed the success a major step towards complementing Pakistan’s deterrence capability.

He said achievement of “this milestone will surely enhance strategic stability and contribute to peace in the region.”

Riaz Haq said...

#India IAF blunder on #RepublicDay: Fighter jet ‘accidently’ drops 5 bombs over #Indian territory in #Rajasthan #BJP …
In a bizarre incident, a fighter jet accidental dropped five bombs over Gugdi town in Rajasthan’s Barmer district on Tuesday. The sound of the explosion was heard in a 10 km radius. No casualties have been reported as of now. Initial reports suggested that the bombs were slipped out of the fighter jet which was on a sorties over the area.

Meanwhile, a team of Indian Air Force (IAF) left for the site where five bombs dropped from a fighter plane over Gugdi. An inquiry has been ordered to probe the blunder made by IAF jet. More details are awaited. Fortunately, bombs were dropped over an isolated place otherwise it could have caused huge devastation.

On the Republic Day day when Indian Air Force that displayed 27 mighty aircraft, three C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraft, five Jaguar combat planes and a Su-30MKI fighter to show India’s military strength, the incident in Gudge can be considered a major embarrassment.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan Air Force pilot M.M. Alam among 7 of the Greatest Flying Aces in World Aviation History - … via @PopMech

A dogfight between two aircraft is perhaps the most fascinating type of combat. The technical knowledge and precision required to operate a fighter aircraft combined with the physical and mental strain of a dogfight make the fighter pilots who excel at them truly exceptional.

Unofficially, a flying ace is a fighter pilot who shoots down at least five enemy aircraft, though the number a single pilot can achieve has steadily decreased because anti-aircraft and tracking technology has made dogfights rare in modern warfare. From Erich Hartmann, the Nazi fighter pilot credited with the most aerial victories of all time, to Giora Epstein, the ace of aces of supersonic jet pilots, these men are among the most skilled fighter pilots to ever enter a cockpit.

Muhammad Mahmood Alam was a Pakistani Air Force jet fighter pilot in the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965. He was the last fighter pilot to become an ace in a day, shooting down five Indian Hawker Hunter fighter jets in less than a minute on September 7 1965, the last four of which he downed within 30 seconds. A national hero in Pakistan, Alam holds the world record for becoming an ace in the shortest amount of time. This bold feat also makes him the only jet pilot to become an ace in one day. Alam was already a respected leader and proficient pilot and gunner when the war started in April 1965. He piloted an F-86 Sabre and downed a total of nine Indian Hawker Hunters in the 1965 war, as well as damaging two others.

Top 7:

Manfred von Richthofen - World War I

Erich Hartmann - World War II

James Jabara - Korean War

Muhammad Mahmood Alam - Indo-Pakistani War

Charles B. DeBellevue - Vietnam War

Giora Epstein - Arab–Israeli Wars

Cesar Rodriguez - Gulf War

Riaz Haq said...

#US approves sale of eight Lockheed F-16 fighter jets to #Pakistan: #Pentagon via @Reuters

The U.S. government said on Friday it had approved the sale to Pakistan of up to eight F-16 fighter jets built by Lockheed Martin Corp, radar and other equipment in a deal valued at $699 million.

The Pentagon's Defense Security Cooperation Agency, which oversees foreign arms sales, said it had notified lawmakers about the possible deal.

The agency said the F-16s would allow Pakistan's Air Force to operate in all-weather environments and at night, while improving its self-defense capability and bolstering its ability to conduct counter-insurgency and counter terrorism operations.

Lawmakers now have 30 days to block the sale, although such action is rare since deals are well-vetted before any formal notification.

Senator Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, notified the Obama administration that he would not approve using U.S. funds to pay for the planes through the foreign military financing (FMF) program. That means Pakistan must fund the purchase itself, instead of relying on U.S. funds to cover about 46 percent of the cost.

Given the funds it has available, Pakistan may only be able to buy four of the F-16 Block 52 models, and the associated radar and electronic warfare equipment, said one U.S. source familiar with the situation.

Corker told Secretary of State John Kerry in a letter that he was concerned about Pakistan's ties to the Haqqani network, a militant group that U.S. officials have said is behind bombings and attacks in Afghanistan.

"I may reconsider my blanket hold on U.S. FMF assistance should the Pakistanis make progress on addressing my significant concerns about their support for the Haqqani network, but for now, if they wish to purchase this military equipment, they will do so without a subsidy from the American taxpayer," he wrote.

One U.S. official said the administration was convinced that F-16s were the right platform to support Pakistan’s counter terrorism and counterinsurgency operations.

"These operations reduce the ability of militants to use Pakistani territory as a safe haven for terrorism and a base of support for the insurgency in Afghanistan, which is in the national interests of both Pakistan and the United States, and in the interest of the region more broadly," the official said.

Lockheed referred questions about the deal to the U.S. government.

Riaz Haq said...

Islamabad will pay $70 million per aircraft under the proposed follow-on sale, including the latest F100-229 “increased performance engine” and 14 joint helmet-mounted cueing systems. Other equipment includes eight Northrop Grumman APG-68(V)9 mechanically-scanned, long-range radars and eight Exelis ALQ-211(V)9 advanced integrated defensive electronic warfare suites.

“The proposed sale improves Pakistan's capability to meet current and future security threats,” the DSCA notice says. “These additional F-16 aircraft will facilitate operations in all-weather, non-daylight environments, provide a self-defence/area suppression capability and enhance Pakistan’s ability to conduct counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations.”

Riaz Haq said...

#India's panic over #Pakistan F16 going on for 40 years. Even 12-1 margin fails to make #Indian Air Force confident. …

Like Pavlov's dog (and this no compliment) the moment the US supplies F-16s to Pakistan, Indians become pitifully pathetic puddles of whines. In the days before India and US were allies, this whining was quite aggressive, and led inevitably to soothing pats and hugs from the USSR, which then consoled us with multiple times the weaponry Pakistan was receiving from the US.

The F-16 panic has been going on for 40 years. Before that it was the F-104 panic. In response to US supply of 20 or so F-104s to Pakistan, India went on to buy 250 MiG-21s. But even the 12-1 margin failed to make us confident.

Without going into the boring details, altogether the US has delivered 83 F-16s to Pakistan, 58 new and the rest used. Pakistan has bought and continues to look for second-hand F-16s. This is like India buying used Su-27s from a Third World air force, something we would never stoop to. The current provocation is a fresh deal for eight F-16s. By the time these are delivered, India will have acquired 272 Su-30 heavy fighters. These are considerably more lethal than the F-16 for attack missions.

But in the same time frame, India also purchased 98 MiG-29s, all upgraded/grading to the UPG standard, as well as 59 Mirage 2000, also being upgraded. This makes 429 new fighters to Pakistan's 64 new F-16s. We don't count the 160 Jaguars on India's side and 50 JF-17s on Pakistan's for various reasons. We also don't count PAF's used F-16s because even after modernisation, these remain the same airframe and engine. So does a 7-1 advantage in new fighters make us confident? Apparently not even a little bit. And let's not forget we rejected the US bid to supply us F-16s because we said we didn't want an old aircraft. So how come this old aircraft now becomes a threat in Pakistan's hands?

Riaz Haq said...

#Kerry defends #F16 deal, lauds #Pakistan Army’s efforts in #terror war. #India #US #TTP #Taliban … via ShareThis

Secretary of State John Kerry on Tuesday defended United States plans to sell F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan saying the latter is an ally and its military has been deeply engaged in the fight against terrorism.

Responding to criticism by the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Republican Senator Bob Corker, Kerry said the issue was complicated and Pakistan has been an ally.

“I understand your reservations about it but their military has been deeply engaged in the fight against terrorism,” he said.

Corker had sharply questioned the F-16 deal to Pakistan, describing Pakistani actions as threatening US troops as they try to stabilize Afghanistan.

“They continue to support the Taliban, the Haqqani network and give safe haven to al Qaeda,” the Republican senator said to the secretary of state, who was testifying to the committee about the State Department’s annual budget request.

The US government said on Feb 12 it had approved the sale to Pakistan of up to eight F-16 fighter jets built by Lockheed Martin Corp, radar and other equipment in a deal valued at $699 million.

Lawmakers have 30 days to block the sale and Corker has made clear he has doubts about it– Reuters

- See more at:

Riaz Haq said...

#SIPRI: #India world's top arms importer #China 2nd #Australia 3rd #Pakistan 4th. Top exporters: #US, #Russia, China …

China, the third largest arms exporter and importer, sold most of its weapons to Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar, says according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute report on global arms purchases.

India remains the world’s largest weapons importer over a five-year period according to latest report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on global arms purchases released on Monday. The report also says that China sold most of its weapons to India’s neighbours.

India accounted for 14 per cent of total imports between 2011 and 2015. China ranks second with 4.7 per cent, Australia (3.6 per cent), Pakistan (3.3 per cent), Vietnam (2.9 per cent) and South Korea (2.6 per cent) the report titled “Trends in international arms transfers-2015” said.

However on an annual basis India ceded its top spot to Saudi Arabia in 2015 which is reflective of the turmoil in the West Asia.

While Pakistan remains the main recipient of Chinese weapons accounting for 35 per cent, a growing trend for India to watch out for is that Pakistan is followed by Bangladesh and Myanmar, accounting for 20 and 16 per cent respectively, all three being neighbours of India.

India merely extended its top run from 2006-2010 period. The top five exporters in the period were U.S., Russia, China, France and Germany.

The report noted that a major reason for the high level of Indian imports is because India’s arms industry has so far largely failed to produce competitive indigenously designed weapons.

While Russia maintains a strong lead as the top supplier, purchases from U.S. are sharply increasing.

While the government has embarked on an ambitious Make in India drive to increase domestic manufacturing it is yet to bring in any meaningful technology build up in the country.

Chinese exports on the rise

Interestingly, China figures at third place as an exporter and importer.

China which has emerged as the world’s third largest arms exporter after U.S. and Russia has increased its exports of major arms by 88 per cent between 2006-2010 and 2011-2015 and concurrently China’s global share of arms exports rose from 3.6 to 5.9 per cent.

“China supplied major arms to 37 states in 2011-15, but the majority of these exports (75 per cent) were to states in Asia and Oceania,” the report said. Major arms include big platforms like aircraft, tanks and so on.

Chinese exports of major arms to states in Asia and Oceania in 2011-15 were 139 per cent higher than in 2006-10, the report added. This is likely to cross path with India’s own increased forays in the Indian Ocean region with emphasis on military diplomacy and capacity building.

Riaz Haq said...

F-16 Fightrer Jets Dispatched to #Pakistan (and $700 Million Dispatched to #Lockheed Martin?) -- The Motley Fool …

Few people realize it, but Pakistan currently boasts one of the most powerful air forces in the Middle East, including hundreds of Chinese F-7 fighter jets and French Mirages combined -- and nearly four dozen early model Lockheed F-16s (the most popular fighter jet on the planet). But as recently revealed in a notification to Congress by the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), the Pakistani air force is about to tip more heavily toward the F-16, thanks to an impending sale of eight new F-16 "Block 52" Falcons.

As revealed in the notification, Pakistan has asked Congress to approve the sale of two new F-16C fighters and six F-16Ds. Each aircraft will be powered by United Technologies' (NYSE:UTX) F100-PW-229 turbofan engine. Including the cost of a set of helmet-mounted cueing systems for the pilots, this portion of the sale comes to $564.7 million in value -- about $70.6 million per fighter jet.

The remaining 20% of the deal's value, according to DSCA, is made up of non-"Major Defense Equipment" not subject to the federal government's notification requirements. Comprising radar systems and defensive electronic warfare (EW) equipment for the planes, plus "spare and repair parts, support and test equipment, publications and technical documentation, personnel training and training equipment, U.S. Government and contractor engineering, technical and logistics support services," this portion of the sale comes to $134 million in value.

Who gets the loot?
Curiously, although Lockheed Martin is providing the planes that are both the core of this arms deal and also the most expensive equipment, Lockheed will not necessarily be named primary contractor. DSCA says, "Contractors have not been selected to support this proposed sale."

With Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC) building the radar, Harris Corporation (NYSE:HRS) the EW equipment, and United Technologies the engines, it seems it's at least possible the Pentagon will ultimately run the contract through one of these three -- and leave Lockheed Martin the role of subcontractor!

What it means to investors
Even if the Pentagon does choose a company other than Lockheed to handle the sale, however, this deal promises to be very good for Lockheed. The reason is contained in a single line buried within DSCA's notification, noting that "this sale will... support transition training for pilots new to the Block-52."

The implication of this statement seems to be that the sale of eight new-model F-16s to Pakistan may be only a prelude to a larger deal to upgrade Pakistan's 46 older F-16s with more advanced models. Given that such a sale could rise into the billion-dollar-plus range, we'll be watching developments here closely.

Riaz Haq said...

Ahead of PM #Modi's #Israel visit, #India's arms purchase deals worth $3 billion from Jewish state via @timesofindia

head of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first visit to Tel Aviv later this year, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) has begun to clear a slew of defence deals with Israel. The deals, some of which have been pending for long, are together worth well over $3 billion.
Defence ministry sources on Tuesday said while the deals for Spice-2000 bombs and laser-designation pods have already been cleared by the CCS, the ones for acquisition of two more Phalcon AWACS (airborne warning and control systems), four more aerostat radars and the medium-range surface-to-air missile system (MR-SAM) for the Army are now on the anvil.
TOI had last month reported that most of these deals had reached the final stages of approvals, while the negotiations for the initial Rs 3,200 crore contract for 321 Israeli "Spike" anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) systems and 8,356 missiles were also making some headway after being stalled for months.

Both the 164 laser-designation pods (Litening-4) and 250 advanced "Spice" precision stand-off bombs are meant to arm IAF fighter jets like Sukhoi-30MKIs and Jaguars for greater lethality and accuracy.
The around Rs 10,000 crore joint development of the MR-SAM for the Army, in turn, will follow the similar ongoing DRDO-Israeli Aerospace Industries projects worth around Rs 13,000 crore for the Navy and IAF. The IAF-Navy variants have an interception range of 70-km, while the one for the Army will be 50-km.
The acquisition of two additional AWACS for over $1 billion, in turn, will be a follow-on order to the three such "force-multipliers" already inducted by the IAF under a tripartite $1.1 billion agreement inked by India, Israel and Russia in 2004.

The AWACS are basically Israeli early-warning radar suites mounted on Russian IL-76 transport aircraft. With a 400-km range and 360-degree coverage, they are "eyes in the sky" capable of detecting incoming fighters, cruise missiles and drones much before ground-based radars.
Similarly, the four new aerostat radars - sensors mounted on blimp-like large balloons tethered to the ground - will follow the two such EL/M-2083 radars inducted by the IAF under a $145 million deal in 2004-2005.

Riaz Haq said...

#India is second most ignorant nation of the world after #Mexico: Survey via @dna

India has the "dubious honour" of being the second most ignorant nation in the world after Mexico, according to a survey which posed questions on issues like inequality, non-religious population, female employment and internet access.

The survey conducted by Ipsos MORI, a London-based market research firm, polled 25,000 people from 33 countries and found that while people "over-estimate what we worry about", a lot of major issues are underestimated.

Mexico and India receive the dubious honour of being the most inaccurate in their perceptions on these issues, while South Koreans are the most accurate, followed by the Irish," the survey said.

The rankings of the nations were based on the "Index of Ignorance" which was determined by questions about wealth that the top 1 % own, obesity, non-religious population, immigration, living with parents, female employment, rural living and internet access.

Most Indians "underestimate" how much of their country's wealth is concentrated in the hands of the top 1%, the survey said, adding that the top 1% actually own an "incredible" 70 % of all wealth.

The survey also found that most Indians "hugely overestimate" the proportions of non-religious people in the country to be 33% when the true figure is under 1 %.

While Israel significantly underestimates the proportion of female employment (by 29 % points), people in countries like India, Mexico, South Africa and Chile all think of more women in work than really are, it said.

India fell in the list of nations which overestimate representation by women in politics.

Countries like Columbia, Russia, India and Brazil all think there is better female representation than there really is, the survey said.

However, the Indian population seriously underestimates the rural population of the country and thinks more people have internet access than in reality.

In India the average guess among online respondents for internet access is 60 per cent - an overestimation of the true picture of 41 percentage points, the survey added.

Riaz Haq said...

Commenting on the parade, analyst, author and former Australian defense attache to Islamabad, Brian Cloughley, said there were “no equipment surprises, but the main thing about the parade is that it took place at all, which is a positive indicator concerning the never-ending fight against terrorism.”

The (Pakistan Day) parade (2016) had generally been an annual event, but the deterioration in the security situation led to a seven-year break from 2007 until last year. It has also been notable in the past for the public debut of new equipment.

The JF-17 Thunder made its debut in 2007, and last year the FM-90 SAM system was displayed for the first time. The Z-10 and Shaheen (Falcon) III made their debuts this year.

The Z-10 has been in the country undergoing an operational evaluation since last year. Official details of this have not been revealed, but what unofficial information is available indicates the army is impressed with the machine.

Pakistan has a requirement to replace the AH-1F Cobra helicopter gunship currently operated by the 31st, 33rd, and 35th Army Aviation Combat Squadrons, and is awaiting delivery of the AH-1Z, but is also pursuing up to 20 MI-35 Hind gunships from Russia.

The Hind appears to have been acquired to fulfill the requirement for an armed and armored helicopter also capable of carrying troops.

It was announced today that the Z-10 was in service with the 35th "Mustangs" Squadron of the Army Aviation Corps, which would paradoxically see Pakistan operating three types of helicopter gunships.

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence Production, which also handles procurement, declined to provide confirmation of the purchase of the Z-10 and how many were to be obtained.

In spite of the other gunship purchases, Cloughley believes there is still room for the Z-10.

“It seems that Pakistan has firmed on 15 AH-1Zs and will probably get 20 Hinds. So there is certainly room for the Z-10, which does seem to be in squadron service,” he said. “It's much cheaper than the [AH-1Z] Viper, of course, and the Hind, though cost-effective, is a big machine.”

Though it would seem dated over today’s battlefield, members of the Army Aviation Corps have acknowledged it is the best counterinsurgency gunship available. Cloughley says the Hind also has one other clear advantage.

“The main thing with the Hind is economy in maintenance — it's probably the best in the world from that aspect for its type,” he said.

Nevertheless, he believes the Z-10 will be the mainstay of Pakistan’s gunship capability. “My assessment is that the Z-10 will be acquired in larger numbers.”

There has been speculation regarding the presence of the Chinese Harbin WZ-19 armed scout in Pakistan, but the spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence Production also declined to comment on this.

Cloughley says the presence of the medium range Shaheen III amounts to some predictable signaling that was aimed squarely at India, Pakistan’s main security threat.

The solid-fueled, multi-stage Shaheen III was tested for the first time in March 2015 and is Pakistan’s longest range missile with a stated delivery limit of 2,750 kilometers, though this is believed by many analysts to be an understatement.

Nevertheless, the range allows it to cover all parts of Indian territory with a worthwhile payload, even the Indian strategic military facilities in the Andaman and Nicobar island chain in the Bay of Bengal/Andaman Sea.

Mansoor Ahmed, a Stanton nuclear security junior faculty fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center and expert on Pakistan's nuclear deterrent and delivery systems, said that “the Shaheen III is in service, but more user trials or batch/training tests might take place as is the usual practice with other similar missile systems.”

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan Rejects #US Calls for Curbing Tactical #Nuke Weapons …

Pakistan’s top nuclear security advisor has rejected growing U.S. pressure and safety concerns about its production and deployment of battlefield nuclear weapons.

“We are not apologetic about the development of the TNWs [tactical nuclear weapons] and they are here to stay,” said Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, an advisor to the so-called National Command Authority (NCA) and a longtime custodian of the country’s nuclear arsenal.

The institutions responsible for planning storage and operational deployments do make sure that “it is so balanced on ground in time and space that it is ready to react at the point where it must react and at the same time it is not sucked into the battle too early and remains safe," Kidwai told a seminar at Islamabad’s Institute of Strategic Studies.

Response to US

He was apparently responding to last week’s testimony before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee by Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Rose Gottemoeller, where she praised the “excellent” steps Pakistan has undertaken to secure its nuclear arsenal, but said Washington is troubled by the development of battlefield nuclear weapons.

She insisted that battlefield nuclear weapons, by their very nature, pose security threats because their security cannot be guaranteed when they are taken to the field.

“So, we are really quite concerned about this and we have made our concerns known and we will continue to press them about what we consider to be the destabilizing aspects of their battlefield nuclear weapons program,” Gottemoeller said.

Nuclear Security Summit

The tensions come ahead of next week’s Nuclear Security Summit in Washington (March 31 - April 1), where President Barack Obama and other global leaders will discuss terrorism threats related to radiological weapons and review proposed safety measures. Leaders of Pakistan and its nuclear-armed archival India will also attend.

Islamabad’s tactical nuclear weapons have been straining its traditionally rollercoaster ties with Washington since 2011, when Pakistan first tested and began producing its nuclear-capable "Nasr" ballistic missile, which has a range of 60 kilometers (36 miles).


Kidwai insisted that the punitive actions might have caused political and diplomatic setbacks to his country but said it has not impacted its efforts to defend the country against another Indian aggression.

“Pakistan would not cap or curb its nuclear weapons program or accept any restrictions. All attempts in this regard… are bound to end up nowhere,” he added.

The Pakistani advisor particularly criticized the American media for being "completely negative, hostile and biased" towards Islamabad's nuclear program, accusing it of publishing misleading reports and claims that Pakistan possesses the world's fastest growing nuclear program.

"I think it is politically-motivated because the developments that are taking place in Pakistan are of a very modest level, very much in line with the concept of credible minimum deterrence, and they are always a reaction to an action that takes place in India. So, Pakistan does not have the fastest growing nuclear program," he said.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan orders 9 more Bell AH-1Z attack helicopters, 1000 Hellfire missiles from #US in $170 million contract …

Bell Helicopter has been put on contract to build nine more AH-1Z Viper gunship helicopters for Pakistan, as part of a larger foreign military sales package for up to 15 helicopters and 1,000 Lockheed Martin AGM-114 Hellfire-series missiles that was approved last April.

Islamabad ordered its first batch of armed, twin-engine “Zulu Cobras” under that deal in August, as part of a larger US Marine Corps order for 19 AH-1Zs. It furnished an undisclosed number of AH-1Zs powered by GE Aviation T700-401C powerplants for $58 million, likely three.

Bell’s latest $170 million contract modification via US Naval Air Systems Command, announced on 4 April, buys nine more aircraft for Pakistan. That raises Pakistan’s AH-1Z programme value to $228 million.

All aircraft, including those ordered in August, will be delivered by August 2018, those respective contract announcements state.

Pakistan is the first international customer for the AH-1Z type, which the Marine Corps is buying as part of its H-1 upgrade programme to replace the AH-1W Super Cobra by 2020.

The marines ordered their 13th batch of H-1 derivatives, the 85% common, four-bladed Viper and UH-1Y Venom, in March.

Those two aircraft are delivered from Bell’s final assembly and checkout facility in Amarillo, Texas, and are being marketed around the world by Bell to keep assembly humming beyond 2020.

AH-1Zs carry a turret-mounted M197 20mm cannon and are equipped with four wing stations for anti-armour Hellfire missiles, AIM-9 Sidewinders or 70mm and 127mm rockets, the navy says.

Riaz Haq said...

#defense spending 2015: #India ($51.1b) ahead of #France ($50.9b), #Germany ($47b), #Japan ($46b). #Pakistan ($9b)

India's share was 3.1 per cent, ahead of France (3 per cent), Japan (2.4 per cent) and Israel (1 per cent). Incidentally, India is in talks with all three countries for acquiring new military platforms running into billions of dollars.

"The headline estimate for total world military spending for 2015 amounts to $1.676 billion, or about 2.3 per cent of total world gross domestic product ( GDP)-- often referred to as the 'military burden'. It is a sum that many people would consider to be ..

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Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan wants air force upgrade for prolonged #militant fight. #terrorism #Taliban via @Reuters

Pakistan wants to upgrade its aging fleet of fighter jets in anticipation of a prolonged battle against Islamist militants, although the purchase of fifth-generation planes would only be a last resort, a senior air force official said.

In 2014, the military launched a crackdown in the northwestern areas of North and South Waziristan and has managed to push back militants into a few pockets.

But its air force, which will need to retire dozens of jets over the coming years, lacks the latest technology and relies heavily on a fleet of about 70 U.S.-made Lockheed Martin F-16s, which are solely capable of carrying out precision targeting.

"Our concern is that we don't know how long these anti-terrorist operations will continue," Pakistan Air Force second-in-command Muhammad Ashfaque Arain told Reuters in an interview late on Wednesday.

"We have weakened them (militants) to a great extent, but I don't see an end in the very near future, so all the burden is being shared by the F-16s and its pilots."

Pakistan's fleet also includes hundreds of Dassault Aviation French-made Mirage jets that are over 40 years old and F7 Chinese warplanes that are over 25 years old, both of which the air force plans to retire over the next few years.

To fill the void, Islamabad has decided to bet on the JF-17 fighter, jointly developed by China and Pakistan, rather than spending billions on fifth-generation multi-role aircraft like Dassault's Rafale, which rival India is buying, or the Russian Su-35.

That option, Arain said, had almost been ruled out for being too expensive and because Pakistan did not want to mix technologies and resources. It would only be reconsidered if "it was pushed against a wall".

Instead, 16 JF-17s will be produced this year with a further 20 in 2017, but Arain acknowledged that the jets' usefulness in current operations was limited because it lacks precision targeting.

"Operationally, the aircraft are working pretty well so we if we had a targeting pod on the JF-17, the burden would be shared," Arain said.

He said his visit to Paris was in part aimed at assessing from French officials the prospects of supplying the Thales-made Damocles, a third-generation targeting pod. He said that was Islamabad's priority for now.

Previous negotiations in 2010 for a deal worth 1.2 billion euros ($1.6 billion) worth of electronics and missiles collapsed under pressure from India, uncertainty over Pakistan's finances and fears of the transfer of technology given Chinese involvement in the JF-17.

"We're looking at the best option. The Damocles is a battle- proven system and the other options are not," Arain said. "If we do not get the Damocles pod for example, then we will need to look for alternate options that may not be proven."

He said that in the long run, the air force was thinking about its needs beyond 2030 when F-16s and JF-17s would start to be replaced.

The United States in February approved the sale to Pakistan of up to eight F-16 fighter jets for the short term, but Arain said even that was proving complicated.

"It's a much cheaper fighter jet, but buying more F-16s is economically not feasible for us and then there is a lot of human outcry," he said.

Arain countered any suggestion that Pakistan might want greater air power to target India by saying that New Delhi itself was expanding its fleet.

"We get eight aircraft and there are people who start to say that it will tilt the balance of power in South Asia. But when somebody across the border buys 36 aircraft and has plans to buy 126, that doesn't change the balance of power," he said, referring to India.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan Seeks #France's Thales Damocles Targeting Pod For JF-17 Fighter Aircraft for precision targeting …

Pakistan is assessing the Thales-made Damocles targeting pod to be mounted on its JF-17 aircraft for giving the fighter precision-targeting capability.
Pakistan Air Force deputy chief Muhammad Ashfaque Arain, currently in Paris to discuss the possibility of acquiring the Domacles pod was quoted by Reuters today as saying, “the Damocles is a battle- proven system and the other options are not. If we do not get the Damocles pod for example, then we will need to look for alternate options that may not be proven.”
The JF-17 is a China- Pakistan joint venture manufactured in Pakistan. Arain said that the JF-17 with the Pakistan Air Force had been performing well but its usefulness in current operations was limited because it lacks precision-targeting, a need which would be fulfilled if Thales sold it the Damocles pod.
Arain revealed that 16 JF-17s will be produced this year in Pakistan and a further 20 in 2017. The aircraft are equipped to carry air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles and bombs.
The Damocles is a 3rd generation targeting pod, modular, eye-safe laser and a high performance pod. It is currently operated by Malaysia’s Su-30MKM jets, UAE Mirage 2000-9 jet, Saudi’s Tornado and Typhoon aircraft, as well as France’s Rafale and Mirage 2000D jets.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan Navy sunk an Indian warship INS Khukri in 1971, the first such sinking of a warship since WW2 by a submarine. After the attack on Khukri, the Indian Navy ceased its attacks on Karachi and moved the focus of its operations to East Pakistan ports like Chittagong and Cox's

To date, Khukri is the only ship lost in combat in the history of the Indian Navy.[2][3][9] Over 18 officers and 176 sailors were lost in the sinking.[3][9] The captain, Mahendra Nath Mulla, chose to go down with the sinking ship. He refused to abandon ship, and passed his life-jacket to a junior officer. He has remained so far the only Indian captain to go down with a vessel.[3][9] He was posthumously awarded India's second-highest military honour, the Maha Vir Chakra.[3][9]

A memorial to the dead sailors exists at Diu. 20°42′10″N 70°58′37″E The memorial consists of a scale model of Khukri encased in a glass house, placed atop a hillock facing the sea. The memorial was inaugurated by Vice Admiral Madhvendra Singh as the flag officer commanding-in-chief.[4]

Riaz Haq said...

Indian Warship INS Khukhri was sunk by a Pakistani sub. Ghazi was sunk in a mine-laying accident, not by enemy. Indian Navy stayed away from Karachi after the sinking of INS Khukri which was the heaviest loss of life in a single incident in the entire war in which 18 Indian Navy officers and 178 sailors perished. Rishi Raj Sood, captain of INS Kirpan - which was accompanying Khukri, fled the scene. “We were hoping that Kirpan, our sister ship would come to rescue us but we saw her sailing away from the area”, Commander Manu Sharma, a survivor of Khukri, has been quoted by Cardozo as having said.

“An early rescue was what everyone hoped for. We thought that at least INS Kirpan would send boat for our rescue, but no rescue boat came from INS Kirpan” Lt Commander SK Basu, who was aboard Khukri and survived the Pakistani attack, told Cardozo. Sood perhaps could have saved the lives of at least some of the 194 people (18 officers and 176 sailors) who died in the attack on Khukri. He continues to defend himself saying that in no way he can disclose the secret behind his questionable action.

Riaz Haq said...

Indian Defense Review on the sinking of INS Khukri by PNS Hangor: “In this spectacular action which took place about 30 miles south of Diu off the Indian Kathiawar coast. KHUKRI the ship of the Squadron Commander of the 14th Frigate Squadron was sunk within two minutes after receiving a hit in the magazine where explosives were stowed. 18 officers and 176 sailors including the Commanding Officer who deliberately stayed back on the sinking ship lost their lives. This came as a shattering blow to the Indian Navy deflating in one stroke the exuberance generated by highly exaggerated success stories of the missile attacks at ships off Karachi.

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Riaz Haq said...

From Indian Defense Review on 1971 ground war on western front:

The major Indian gains claimed in terms of area were about 3,200 square kilometres in the Ladakh region under Lt Gen Sartaj Singh and 1,200 square kilometres. under Lt Gen G G Bewoor in the Rajasthan Desert. In both regions these gains lay in farflung, desolate, uninhabited and difficult areas of negligible economic, strategic and political value which could hurt the rulers of Pakistan only in their prestige.

On the other hand, Sartaj Singh lost the area of Chhamb, where the aftermath of the refugee problem still haunts the Jammu and Kashmir administration. The loss of the Kasowala bulge, the Hussainiwala enclave and the Fazilka agricultural belt in Punjab could not be equated with marginal gains in the Sehjra bulge and the Mamdot enclave in economic, military or political terms. The Indian occupation of the major portion of the Shakargarh bulge was somewhat embarrassing to the Bhutto government in v ..

Rawlley lost more than he gained in Punjab. The loss of Hussainiwala, the Fazilka cotton track and Chhina Bidhi Chand were inexcusable. The battle in this sector was a peripheral loss and gain of border outposts and nothing more.

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Riaz Haq said...

Ex-Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar to #Modi's #India: "Stop Blaming #Pakistan for #KashmirUnrest " via @sharethis

Diplomat turned politician and senior Indian National Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar Friday advised India to stop blaming Pakistan for Kashmir unrest and start an unconditional parallel dialogue with both Pakistan and separatist leadership of Kashmir.
In an exclusive chat with Kashmir based news agency CNS, Aiyar said that it would not solve the problem for India instead it will get aggravated if India continues to keep on blaming Pakistan for Kashmir crisis. “There is an urgent need for parallel dialogue. India must start dialogue with Pakistan and at the same time it should engage ‘disgruntled’ separatist leadership of Kashmir. The fact is that whenever India engages Pakistan into dialogue, the tempers in Kashmir have cooled down,” he said.

Aiyar who was a cabinet minister in Manmohan Singh led Indian government admitted that there is so much dissatisfaction among people in Kashmir and it is high time we take measures to solve the Kashmir imbroglio. “We don’t have to re-invent the wheel but we have to only dust-off the past records that we had on Kashmir. So many groups and even interlocutors had come up with recommendations on Kashmir. We need to have a closer look over those Kashmir related files that have gathered dust and try to implement them. We need to show to the people of Kashmir that we are serious to settle the Kashmir issue,” he said and added that it is high time that Government of India implement the recommendations of the five Working Groups constituted by the then Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh in 2006.
Responding to a question, Mani Shankar Aiyar said that it is unfortunate that the documents related to Round Table Meetings over Kashmir were buried by successive Governments at New Delhi. He said that even Pakistan and India had arrived at a consensus to demilitarize both parts of Kashmir and evolve to mechanism to sort out common problems.
Aiyar said that it is very unfortunate that Bhartiya Janata Party that has not won even a single seat from Kashmir. “It is the right time for PDP to distance itself from BJP and seek support from Congress, National Conference and other independent members. People in Kashmir are highly dissatisfied with BJP,” he said and condemned the use of brute force in Kashmir.

“What New Delhi is trying to prove by using brute force on the protesters in Kashmir Valley? People in Kashmir are facing oppression. Any attempt to force the people of Kashmir to accept any solution against their will is bound to fail. The cosmetic measures are not going to work now. We need a permanent solution to this problem,” Aiyar said adding that when Government of India can reach out to the gun totting people of Nagaland, why it feels shy to reach out to the people of Kashmir.

Riaz Haq said...

There Should be 'Plebiscite' in #Kashmir, Says #India Congress Leader Scindia. #Pakistan #KashmirUnrest

Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia today said in Lok Sabha that there should be "plebiscite" in Kashmir as the situation in the Valley has deteriorated and the PDP-BJP government has "insulted" the "crown" of India.

"In Kashmir today, there is a need for plebiscite," he said using Urdu word 'rai shumari' while initiating a discussion in the House on Kashmir situation.

"PDP-BJP government has shed all the principles. Administration is divided and the government, which should support people, is using weapons against them," Scindia said, adding "the wounds there can be healed only through humanity."

While attacking the Centre and state government, the Chief Whip of Congress said, "There is a need to create an environment of peace and tranquality; growth and development."

Describing Kashmir as "an important part of the heart of every Indian", he said, "but today that crown is being insulted. This I feel is irresponsible."

He said the UPA government had created an environment of peace and harmony by taking everybody along.

"The reality is that there is a marriage of convenience in Jammu and Kashmir," Scindia said referring to the alliance between PDP and BJP.

"The reality is that there is an identity crisis in the state government...Today it is ckear that there is a political upheavel and terrorism is flourishing in Jammu and Kashmir. 60 per cent population in the state is below 30 years of age. If we are not able to create opportunities for them, we would be pushing them towards militancy," the Congress leader said.

Riaz Haq said...

#Israel Air Force #IAF to participate in #American #Flagstar air-to-air combat drill with #Pakistan #PAF, #UAE AF

The Israel Air Force is set to take part in a large-scale aerial exercise in the United States later this month. According to reports, teams from the Pakistani and United Arab Emirates air forces will also be taking part in the Red Flag air-to-air combat exercise in Nevada.
Israel will be sending land and air crews, as well as F-16 fighter jets, to the exercise, which is one of the biggest in the world. Haaretz asked the IDF spokesman to comment on the Israeli military’s policy on training with teams from Pakistan and the U.A.E. – countries Israel has no diplomatic relations with – but received no response.

The IAF has been preparing for the exercise over recent months, including the long-distance flight from Israel to the Nellis Air Force Base in southern Nevada. Flying the F-16s to the United States will require several fueling stops along the way, as well as midair refueling.

The IAF also participated in last year’s exercise, which simulates aerial combat fighting. The participating teams are put in a “blue” team and a “red” team, and these hold dogfights with one another.
Teams from the United States, Israel, Singapore and Jordan took part in last year’s exercise. At the time, it was reported in foreign media outlets that Israeli aircraft even refueled Jordanian jets en route to the United States for the exercise.
An IAF officer who took part in last year’s exercise called it “the biggest and best simulation of war in the world.”

The teams that took part in the exercise practiced intercepting aircraft, attacking targets, rescuing pilots and flying under the threat of anti-aircraft missiles.
The Nellis Air Force Base website didn’t disclose which air forces will be participating in the upcoming exercise. However, aerial enthusiast websites reported that teams from Spain and the U.A.E. will be taking part. Spain’s Ministry of Defense reported that the Spanish Air Force sent teams to the exercise last weekend. Pakistani media outlets also reported that Pakistani F-16s were en route to the United States.
The Aviationist, a website devoted to reports on military aviation, stated that Pakistani F-16s landed in Portugal 10 days ago, on their way to the exercise.

Riaz Haq said...

Israel and Pakistan Take Part in Joint Aerial Combat Exercise in U.S.
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In recent days photographers in the area, near Las Vegas, have filmed Israeli, Spanish and Pakistani aircraft in advance of the joint exercise. In addition, a transport plane belonging to the United Arab Emirates was also photographed, indicating that, as reported, that country’s air force will also participate in the exercise.
The Israeli plane that will be used in the exercise is the F-16I (the “Sufa,” or Storm). In footage from Nevada one can see that IAF jets belonging to three different Sufa squadrons were sent to the United States. Air and ground crews will also participate.
The Red Flag exercise is scheduled to end on August 26.


“The Red Flag is the biggest and best simulation of war in the world,” one IAF officer said at the end of the 2015 exercise.
All of the squadrons participating are assigned to “red” and “blue” forces. They practice intercepting other aircraft, attacking targets, rescuing pilots and engaging in aerial activity under the ostensible threat of ground-to-air missiles.
Haaretz received no response when questioning Israel Defense Forces sources two weeks ago about the possible participation of Pakistan and the UAR in Red Flag.
At the time the IDF Spokesman's Office said only that, “The air force trains regularly in Israel and abroad in order to maintain operational fitness for various operational plans. The Red Flag exercise involves unique and high-quality training. When the IAF was invited to participate, it accepted the invitation.”

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Riaz Haq said...

NELLIS AIR FORCE BASE, Nev. (AFNS) -- Pakistan Air Force F-16C/D aircraft traveled more than 7,700 miles to participate in Red Flag 16-4 here from Aug. 15-26.

The training allowed the Pakistan and U.S. air forces to continue building and strengthening their relationship. It also provided them the chance to improve integration, further training and enhance the readiness of air operations.

“The F-16 has been the lynchpin in accomplishing our mutual desired objectives,” said Pakistan Air Vice Marshal Syed Noman Ali, the deputy chief of air staff. “At the strategic level it has been extremely valuable. On the capability enhancement and objective achievement on the ground, this aircraft has been the most useful.”

Pakistan brought a unique set of skills to the exercise, from their willingness to collaborate to their motivation to get the most out of the training scenarios.

“For me, it is absolutely phenomenal to have a partner who is willing to do that and looks at this as truly an opportunity to not only get better as a force within the Pakistan Air Force but also how to better integrate with everyone else,” said Maj. Gen. Rick B. Mattson, the chief of the Office of the Defense Representative, Pakistan. “That has been a major focus for the team that has been here and I have already heard about ways they are able to integrate better through technology and we will try to work on that part.”

Not only have the Pakistan pilots been impressive but also their maintenance team as well.

“I have a lot of experience in the Middle East and this is a very unique capability that they have,” Mattson said. “When you go through the maintenance facility, bays, it’s all Pakistan enlisted working on these aircrafts.”

Integration has been a major focus for Red Flag 16-4 and the Pakistan Air Force has played a key role in helping achieve that goal.

“When you have a force that is that professional and is dedicated to training and working together as a coalition you are going to get better as a group and I think that has been the biggest lesson from this,” Mattson said.

The exercise has helped both air forces learn each other’s strengths and utilizing those strengths in real-world situations.

“Whenever we’ve been together with the U.S. in terms of an exercise or other engagements it has been amazing, productive and mutually rewarding experience on both sides,” Ali said. “Whether its actual strategies that have been going on in the region or it has been exercises that train for certain events, I would expect this type of relationship to grow stronger in the future.”

ajay dubey said...

Riaz , you are living in fools paradise . You are crying as Mr Zakir Naik , as he has learnt some religious books as parrot and keep on repeating that .

I have been to US and Europe , and there PAKI is not less than an abuse and people take them with suspicion .

In your view , all these IT export of India is fake , out trillion dollar economy is fake , we are so fool that we are wasting our billion of dollars to buy junks from US , Russia and Israel beside developing our own ( You people has Chinese made defense equipment , and you will be happy to listen in India any thing of low quality and grantee is called Chinese Material. When the world's credit rating agencies says that India is the fastest growing economy , that is also fake .India's space program is second to none , it is also fake . Chandra Yan was a fire cracker . Sir ji , make your fact right and even you don't make it does not matter to India . Pakistan is totally a fake country , even the History what is taught is fake . You people foolishly consider you as decadent of Arabs but the reality is , you all were Hindus and the Arab's , Moughls etc have blood bathed you first as you were the first to come on the way and due to the fear of slaughter by them , you people accepted Islam . All you said is a Joke and it shows your frustration .

Riaz Haq said...

#India needs cool heads after #Kashmir attack but #Modi is a prisoner of his own bluster. #Pakistan #UriAttacks

the crucial - and more serious - question is whether India has the capability and intelligence to carry out targeted strikes or wage a limited war inside Pakistani territory.
Most experts say that successive governments don't appear to have built these capabilities. There is media chatter on why the air force should carry out surgical air strikes inside Pakistan, but many experts believe it would not be easy as Pakistan has robust air defence systems. There are even doubts whether India has built capabilities for unconventional deterrence.
The problem with Mr Modi's government, according to defence analyst Ajai Shukla, is that it has "escalated the rhetoric [against Pakistan] but has not created military capabilities and planning structure to respond in a more forceful manner [against terror attacks] than the previous government".

Now the government appears to have become a prisoner of its own bluster. "The danger of being trapped in your own rhetoric is that you can be forced into an aggressive response and then be ill-quipped to handle the escalation," says Mr Shukla.
So is India's tradition of so-called "strategic restraint" against Pakistan the only answer?
For one, the jury is out whether the policy has worked or not. There are no easy answers.
Pratap Bhanu Mehta of Delhi's leading Centre for Policy Research think tank says strategic restraint has served India quite well. "Pakistan will be isolated, except for China, and we should call for financial sanctions," he says. Also, he believes Sunday's attack will put Pakistan on the spot and let the pressure off Kashmir at the UN General Assembly meeting this week.
"We have actually boxed ourselves into a bit of corner by our public discourse, where the clamour to do something reckless is now great. Otherwise we are winning the long-term battle," says Professor Mehta.
Cold logic
Others like C Christine Fair, defence expert and author of Fight to the End, a scholarly account of Pakistan's army, differ. "If the objective is to deter Pakistan to stop pursuing terror against India it hasn't served the purpose. Does the international community feel any more compelled to take India's side because of its strategic response? Not really," she says.
Others feel that "strategic restraint" masks a morbidly cold logic that India, a country of more than a billion people with one of the largest standing armies in the world, can absorb the deaths of soldiers in terror attacks without any major political upheaval. "India is growing economically, Pakistan is not. So we can sacrifice a couple of hundred people in attacks, without risking a war. That's what the thinking behind strategic restraint is, which nobody really talks about," says an expert.

Riaz Haq said...

In a report to be unveiled on March 28, Ashley Tellis, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specialising in international security, defence, and Asian strategic issues said that air dominance was vital for India if it were to have deterrence stability in southern Asia and for preserving the strategic balance in the wider Indo-Pacific region.

Mr. Tellis’ report, “Troubles, they come in Battalions: The Manifest Travails of the Indian Air Force,” is a sharp analysis of the current state of the IAF’s preparedness to face down threats from potentially troublesome neighbours and it finds the country’s aerial fighting force to be inadequate on a number of parameters.

For example, the report notes that as of early 2016, the IAF was weaker than the numbers suggested, and “At nominally 36.5 squadrons, it is well short of its sanctioned strength, and many of its frontline aircraft are obsolete.”

On the other hand China and Pakistan have apparently fielded close to 750 advanced air defence or multirole fighters against the IAF’s 450-odd equivalents, and by 2025, China may well be in a position to deploy anywhere between 300 and 400 sophisticated air craft against India, in addition to likely 100 to 200 advanced fighters by Pakistan.

With India facing this regional threat matrix Mr. Tellis argues that the IAF’s desire for 42–45 squadrons by 2027, which is the equivalent of around 750-800 aircraft, was “compelling,” yet the likelihood of reaching this goal was “poor.”

The main barriers to embarking on a successful acquisition and modernisation drive, according to the Carnegie report is the fact that the IAF is “stymied by serious constraints on India’s defence budget, the impediments imposed by the acquisition process, the meagre achievements of the country’s domestic development organisations, the weaknesses of the higher defence management system, and India’s inability to reconcile the need for self-sufficiency in defence production with the necessity of maintaining technological superiority over rivals.”

Earlier this month The Hindu noted (Embracing America’s war machines) that a rare offer to produce F-16 fighters on Indian soil may be forthcoming from the aircraft’s producer, Lockheed Martin, and that there were several risks but many advantages to considering this option as the IAF presses on with its expansion.

If the IAF chose to avoid this approach it may have to continue relying on the Sukhoi and MiG platforms and the expected incoming 36 Rafale aircraft, and then cover any shortfall in capability with the indigenous Tejas.

While this approach may make sense from a cost perspective in that India could save money for a theoretical future purchase of the F-35 instead, a stealth-capable, fifth generation fighter, it may also slow India’s progress in building up its force posture in the manner envisioned by the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender, under which another 90 advanced fighters are still required.

In the context of the Tejas, the Su-30MKI acquisitions and the PAK-FA co-development programmes, however, the Carnegie report is clear in identifying technical shortcomings, and it notes that “All three tiers of the IAF are currently in trouble.”

Specifically the Tejas Mark 1 was handicapped by significant technological deficiencies; the prospects for expanding the MMRCA component to compensate for the Tejas’s shortcomings are unclear; and the IAF’s reluctance to proceed fully with the PAK-FA program could undermine its fifth generation fighter ambitions, the report argues.

Riaz Haq said...

From Economist Magazine:

...there are serious chinks in India’s armour. Much of its weaponry is, in fact, outdated or ill maintained. “Our air defence is in a shocking state,” says Ajai Shukla, a commentator on military affairs. “What’s in place is mostly 1970s vintage, and it may take ten years to install the fancy new gear.” On paper, India’s air force is the world’s fourth largest, with around 2,000 aircraft in service. But an internal report seen in 2014 by IHS Jane’s, a defence publication, revealed that only 60% were typically fit to fly. A report earlier this year by a government accounting agency estimated that the “serviceability” of the 45 MiG 29K jets that are the pride of the Indian navy’s air arm ranged between 16% and 38%. They were intended to fly from the carrier currently under construction, which was ordered more than 15 years ago and was meant to have been launched in 2010. According to the government’s auditors the ship, after some 1,150 modifications, now looks unlikely to sail before 2023.

Such delays are far from unusual. India’s army, for instance, has been seeking a new standard assault rifle since 1982; torn between demands for local production and the temptation of fancy imports, and between doctrines calling for heavier firepower or more versatility, it has flip-flopped ever since. India’s air force has spent 16 years perusing fighter aircraft to replace ageing Soviet-era models. By demanding over-ambitious specifications, bargain prices, hard-to-meet local-content quotas and so on, it has left foreign manufacturers “banging heads against the wall”, in the words of one Indian military analyst. Four years ago France appeared to have clinched a deal to sell 126 of its Rafale fighters. The order has since been whittled to 36, but is at least about to be finalised.

India’s military is also scandal-prone. Corruption has been a problem in the past, and observers rightly wonder how guerrillas manage to penetrate heavily guarded bases repeatedly. Lately the Indian public has been treated to legal battles between generals over promotions, loud disputes over pay and orders for officers to lose weight. In July a military transport plane vanished into the Bay of Bengal with 29 people aboard; no trace of it has been found. In August an Australian newspaper leaked extensive technical details of India’s new French submarines.

The deeper problem with India’s military is structural. The three services are each reasonably competent, say security experts; the trouble is that they function as separate fiefdoms. “No service talks to the others, and the civilians in the Ministry of Defence don’t talk to them,” says Mr Shukla. Bizarrely, there are no military men inside the ministry at all. Like India’s other ministries, defence is run by rotating civil servants and political appointees more focused on ballot boxes than ballistics. “They seem to think a general practitioner can perform surgery,” says Abhijit Iyer-Mitra, who has worked as a consultant for the ministry. Despite their growing brawn, India’s armed forces still lack a brain.