Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Has Intel's Indian-American Techie Risked America's Global Technology Leadership?

Intel has recently fired its Indian-American chief engineer Venkata Murthy Renduchintala, who also served as Group President of the Technology, Systems Architecture and Client Group (TSCG), for failure to deliver 7 nanometer semiconductor technology on schedule, according to Reuters.  The news has knocked the market value of Intel by tens of billions dollars. The American company, the biggest global chip manufacturer with in-house fabrication plants, has also decided to outsource manufacturing. This could deal a serious blow to America's global leadership in chip manufacturing which is fundamental to all other computer and communications related technologies.


Intel's Global Leadership:

Intel Corp. (INTC), founded in 1968 in Silicon Valley, is the world's largest and the most advanced semiconductor company, larger than the second-ranked Samsung Semiconductors, and more than triple the size of the next-largest domestic producer, Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM).

What distinguishes Intel from most other semiconductor companies is that it manufactures its products in-house. The bulk of semiconductor “manufacturers” outsource the actual work of building their products out to foundries in China and Taiwan.

Last week, the company revealed that its smaller, faster 7-nanometer chipmaking technology was at least six months behind schedule and it would have to outsource manufacturing to keep its products competitive.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC):

Taiwan-based TSMC has 6 nanometer technology in production already. There is widespread speculation that Intel will turn to it to manufacture its most advanced microprocessors.

TSMC manufactures chips for the vast majority of the leading fabless semiconductor companies including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Apple Inc., Broadcom Inc., Marvell, Nvidia, and Qualcomm.

US Technology Leadership Under Threat:

Semiconductor manufacturing technology is fundamental to all other computer and communications technologies. While the U.S. still has most of the leading chip design companies, there are very few leading semiconductor manufacturing facilities in the country. In fact, the US, which invented the chip technology,  has slipped from being first in semiconductor manufacturing at the dawn of the industry to fifth in the world.

Recognizing the issue of foreign sourcing of critical technologies, the US has forced TSMC to start a fab in Arizona.  But TSMC’s proposed fab in Arizona will have relatively small capacity, sufficient to meet only a fraction of the manufacturing demand of top companies like Apple, AMD, Marvell, Nvidia, etc.  The US Congress is in the process of legislation that will provide greater incentives to companies to manufacture chips in the United States.

US-China Tech War:

TSMC is caught in the cross-fire of US-China technology war.  Almost all major semiconductor manufacturers, including TSMC, rely on equipment made by US companies. The US government is attempting to leverage the dominance of US chipmaking equipment industry to shut out the Chinese technology companies.

US Commerce Department has recently announced that henceforth, any semiconductor chips made with equipment built by American companies cannot be sold to Huawei without prior approval and license from the DOC.

Summary:

Silicon Valley tech giant has revealed that its smaller, faster 7-nanometer chipmaking technology is at least six months behind schedule and it would have to outsource manufacturing to keep its products competitive. The company has blamed the failure on its Indian-American chief engineer who has since been fired. What is at stake here is the US technology leadership because semiconductors are fundamental to all computers and communications products. Taiwan-based TSMC appears to be the biggest beneficiary of Intel's failure.

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Haq's Musings

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Can Pakistan Benefit From US-China Trade War

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Monday, July 27, 2020

Naya Pakistan: Low-Cost Home Loans and Construction Subsidies to Boost Economy

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has recently announced a new housing construction incentives package that includes down payment assistance and expansion of home loans portfolios by commercial banks at discounted rates for affordable housing for the poor. Shariah compliant financing is also included in it. Pakistan’s mortgage finance to GDP ratio is just 0.25%, among the lowest in the world, according to the World Bank. The average for South Asia 3.4%.  New housing drives a large number of sectors of the economy from banking and building materials to construction and manufacturing of furniture and home appliances. These incentives are designed to stimulate the economy, boost employment and deal with the growing shortage of affordable housing in the country.




Naya Pakistan Housing:

Pakistan government's Naya Pakistan housing program offers Rs. 33 billion in direct subsidies for down payments for the first 100,000 applicants, according to media reports. In addition, the commercial banks are required to allocate 5% of their portfolio amounting to Rs330 billion for construction activities under this program. Pakistan’s mortgage finance to GDP ratio is just 0.25%, among the lowest in the world, according to the World Bank. A person earning Rs30,000 to Rs100,000 can build a house on a 5-marla lot with the mortgage financing at 5% and that of 10-marla at 7%.

Importance of Housing:

New Housing Starts are considered a reliable economic indicator in any country that collects routine economic data. Housing sector drives a large number of other sectors of the economy from banking and building materials to construction and manufacturing of furniture and home appliances.

These sectors, in turn, create jobs, improve people's living standards and widen the tax base. In the United States, for example, homes are the biggest contributors to net worth of Americans. Home equity loans allow people to take out loans for other purposes, including education, business startups and home improvements.  Hence, the governments' interest in pursuing pro-housing policies that ensure secure property rights, set aside land for housing and require banks to offer low-cost home loans.

Secure Property Rights:

Secure property rights are a pre-requisite for a thriving housing sector. Hernando de Soto Polar, Peruvian economist known for his work on the informal economy and on the importance of business and property rights, told Reuters back in 2016 that “(T)here is no such thing as an investment without property rights that are negotiable and transferable”.

In the United States, the world’s largest economy, the most important source of funds for new businesses is a mortgage on the entrepreneur’s house, de Soto wrote in his book “The Mystery of Capital”. He says that secure property rights for world's poor could unlock trillions in 'dead capital'.

Unfortunately, Pakistan's land title system is among the most corrupt in the country. A patwari, the title for the official keeping land records, is among the most resourceful government officials in much of Pakistan.  Patwaris have a well-deserved reputation for corruption. Legally protected and enforced property rights are the key source of the developed world’s prosperity, and the lack thereof is the reason why many nations remain mired in poverty, de Soto has argued.

Housing Finance:

Construction loans and mortgages at reasonable rates are essential for people to afford to build and own houses. Policies promoting discount loans and mortgages are the cornerstone of housing policies in the developed world.

Typical Low Cost Home. Source: Dawn 
In the United States, government-backed mortgage giants like FNMA (Federal National Mortgage Association) and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp) deploy vast resources to buy mortgages and ensure liquidity in the mortgage market. When lenders make loans for housing based on FNMA or Freddie Mac rules, they are confident they can sell in a highly liquid mortgage market.

Other developed countries also support mortgage financing in similar ways to make housing affordable.  Pakistan’s mortgage finance to Gross Domestic Product ratio is just 0.25%, among the lowest in the world.  The average for South Asia 3.4%. It's much higher in developed nations. It is over 65% in the United States, 40% in France and 20% in Italy.

Mortgage Debt to GDP Ratios in Developed Nation. Source: Urban Institute


Land at Discount Rates:

Land is a significant part of the cost of housing, particularly in or around big cities where land is highly appreciated. The government can help reduce this cost by offering land at discount for affordable housing.  There are news reports that Pakistan government has identified tracts of land to offer it to builders at discount rates for affordable housing.


Summary:

Naya Pakistan housing program offers Rs. 33 billion in direct subsidies for down payments for the first 100,000 applicants and requires the commercial banks to allocate 5% of their portfolio amounting to Rs330 billion for construction activities. Shariah compliant financing is also included in it.  It will boost Pakistan’s mortgage finance to GDP ratio which is only 0.25%, among the lowest in the world, and lower than 3.4% for South Asia. New housing drives a large number of sectors of the economy from banking and building materials to construction and manufacturing of furniture and home appliances. These incentives are designed to stimulate the economy, boost employment and deal with the growing shortage of affordable housing in the country.


Related Links:








Saturday, July 25, 2020

COVID19 in Pakistan: Smart Lockdown Brought About Declining Infections

Pakistan has seen a rapid decline in its COVID19 test positivity rates over the last several weeks. The country has seen a fall in positivity rate from over 22% in June to below 10% now, and excluding Sindh, near 5% for the rest of the country. Neighboring India has positivity rate at 12.1% and rising.  There has been significant decline in hospitalizations and fewer patients in critical care.  Pakistanis need to continue to take all precautions during Eid ul Azha holidays, including wearing face masks, to ensure that COVID19 fades out in the country.

Test Positivity Rate: 

There has been a significant fall in coronavirus test positivity rate from over 22% in June to below 10% now, and excluding Sindh, near 5% for the rest of the country. Neighboring India has positivity rate at 12.1% and rising.

Test Positivity Rates in India and Pakistan. Source: Our World in Data

Biweekly Death Rates: 

Pakistan has seen 38% decline in biweekly deaths while neighboring India has experienced 43% jump in biweekly deaths.

Change in Buweekly CIVID19 Deaths in India and Pakistan


Health Chief Dr. Zafar Mirza's Interview: 

What has brought this about? Is it just Pakistan's good fortune? Why is it so different from the situation in neighboring India where the infections are rising?  Is it the result of a series of deliberate interventions by Pakistan's government led by Prime Minister Imran Khan? What are the key factors contributing to falling coronavirus transmission rate in the country? Here are some  of Pakistan's Health Chief Dr. Zafar Mirza's answers to these questions that came to light in a recent interview with Pakistani journalist Bilal Lakhani:


1. There were 50 different interventions with 2300 smart lockdowns covering 47 million people based on data driven evidence of disease spread.

2.  Significant change in people's behavior with large percentage wearing masks and taking other precautions to prevent transmission.

3. A fall in positivity from over 22% to below 10%, and excluding Sindh, near 5% for the country.

4. Significant decline in hospitalizations and fewer patients in critical care.

5. The government staying the course while ignoring the mass hysteria for total nationwide lockdown like India's stirred up in the media came mainly from the well-fed rich and the upper middle class. The voices of the ordinary people and daily wage earners were not part of public discourse reported by the media.

Summary:

Pakistan has seen a rapid decline its COVID19 test positivity over the last several weeks. The country has seen a fall in positivity rate from over 22% in June to below 10% now, and excluding Sindh, near 5% for the rest of the country. Neighboring India has positivity rate at 12.1% and rising. At just 0.74, the effective coronavirus reproduction rate (Rt) in Pakistan is among the lowest in the world. An Rt of less than 1 indicates each infected person is infecting fewer than one person.  Only Italy (0.63), Netherlands (0.62), Canada (0.50) and Spain (0.02) have lower reproduction rates than Pakistan's. However, this is no time to relax.  Pakistanis need to continue to take all precautions during Eid ul Azha holidays, including wearing face masks, to ensure that COVID19 fades out in the country.

Here's Bilal Lakhani's video:

https://youtu.be/CEafplkFuUc





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Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Pakistan COVID19 Antibodies Study: 90% of Virus Carriers Have No Symptoms

Guest Post by Dr. Wajiha Javed
Head of Public Health and Research
Getz Pharma, Pakistan.

Key Findings:

 • Survey revealed that 90% of the population who tested COVID-19 positive (screened via serologic test kits) were asymptomatic carriers of the disease, who would have otherwise not presented at a government-approved PCR testing facility.

 • If the results of this study are extrapolated to the rest of the population with similar demographics, the total number of active COVID-19 infections in the country would go up to 4.11 million, which is 17.7 times higher than the current official number.

 • While these findings are restricted to Pakistan’s urban, adult, working population in various metropolises, they still provide useful insights for guiding public health practices across the country.

 • This is a groundbreaking research which can improve Pakistan’s public health response to COVID-19 by increasing testing capacity and ensuring that the true prevalence of the disease is captured via cost-effective methods, thereby reducing the burden on an already exhausted healthcare system.


Coronavirus Antibodies


Full Report:

Pakistan has faced issues regarding limited testing per million population, a cost intensive, symptom-based testing methodology in hospital settings, which focuses exclusively on Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) swab tests. Alongside a limitation of funds, there is a dilemma that a majority of COVID-19 positive cases do not display overt symptoms, and for a large proportion of the population that does not have access to hospitals, a more efficient testing and screening approach is required to ascertain the true prevalence of COVID-19 in Pakistan.
One such approach has been provided by Getz Pharma, the largest branded generic pharmaceutical company in Pakistan, who followed a multi-pronged approach in combating the pandemic. They conducted the first, mass-level sero-prevalence study on general, low-risk population in Pakistan. The target population was 24,210 individuals from different workplaces of Karachi tested via serological kits, and the findings have been extrapolated to the rest of the urban, adult, working population of Pakistan. This is the first of its kind, large scale, groundbreaking census in urban areas of Pakistan, conducted on healthy, asymptomatic adults between 18 to 65 years of age and depicts the true extent of the spread of the disease at 4.11 million individuals, which is 17.7 times higher than the current, official figures of COVID-19 positive cases reported.
Summary:
Population-level serologic testing is a game-changer in monitoring the prevalence and case-fatality of COVID-19 within a population, and it provides valuable insights for developing an effective pandemic response plan. This approach has important implications in guiding public health policies by increasing testing capacity via cost-effective methods. In Pakistan, Getz Pharma conducted a 100% census sero-prevalence study on a sample of individuals with follow-up and sequential testing after every 15-20 days. The sample included an adult, working population between the ages of 18-65 years in urban workplaces of Karachi. This was the first ever large-scale, cross-sectional sero-prevalence study conducted on a low-risk population to assess the prevalence of COVID-19 in Pakistan. The results revealed the prevalence of COVID-19 amongst asymptomatic people using serologic test kits, which allow mass screening hence indicating the total numbers of the infected population which may be many folds higher than indicated by PCR tests which show that only 231,818 people are currently COVID-19 positive in Pakistan.[1]
Amongst the figures from ongoing testing by the government, the proportion tested positive from the total number of people tested is termed as the positivity rate[2] of COVID-19 infections, which is very different from the total prevalence of COVID-19 within a population. The positivity rate only considers the total number of positive cases amongst symptomatic individuals or contacts of COVID-19 positive cases tested divided by the total number of PCR tests conducted.[3] This is in itself a volunteer bias as those who present for PCR tests are the ones having symptoms. Hence, the positivity rate cannot be used to determine the true extent of the disease as it fails to capture the proportion of positive cases within the general, low-risk population including asymptomatic carriers, who can only incidentally be identified via a mass-screening model such as the one implemented by Getz Pharma.
According to Getz Pharma’s study, out of 24,210 individuals screened, 17.5% tested positive, with 7% IgM positive, 6.0% IgG positive and 4.5% combined IgM and IgG positive. These findings have then been extrapolated to the rest of the urban, adult, working population of Pakistan, and as of 6th July, 2020, 4.11 million people in Pakistan have been infected with COVID-19 as opposed to only 231,818 as per government PCR figures.[4]

Table 1: Seroprevalence study results and extrapolations



Getz Pharma has conducted a sero-prevalence 100% testing (census) of various workplaces in Karachi including factories, corporates, restaurants, media houses, schools, banks, healthcare providers in hospitals and families of positives using USFDA EUA and CE approved serologic test kits that have been used in 38 countries globally. Serologic tests are based on the qualitative detection of IgM and IgG generated by the body in response to a SARS-CoV-2 infection.[5] IgM is usually the first antibody type generated by the body in response to a COVID-19 infection, followed by IgG which then replaces IgM as the predominant antibody in the blood. IgM and IgG combat infections by targeting specific antigens on the surface of the virus.[6] The kits used by Getz Pharma have a sensitivity of 95.3% and specificity of 98.7% for IgG, and the sensitivity of 86.48% and specificity of 95.18% for IgM.[7]
Getz Pharma in its efforts to contribute back into the system is also testing 25,000 frontline healthcare providers and their families free of cost. In addition to this, we are also conducting a sequential serological testing every 15 days for all of our 1500 employees to keep our workplace COVID-19 free. More details of the initiative can be found at https://www.dawn.com/news/1559103/what-does-our-seroprevalence-study-tell-us
The results presented are from a sample of 24,210 individuals taken from different workplaces of Karachi. The numbers continue to grow on a daily basis as we continue to test and enroll more people in the study.
As this is a study sample from urban workplaces and not a multistage, cluster random household survey, the extrapolation of the data obtained through this census needs to keep the following statistical considerations in mind:
1. The study population included adults between 18-65 years of age. While extrapolating it to the general population of 220 million, 53% of the population in Pakistan which is under 18 years of age and 4.5% above 65 years[8] needs to be stratified and excluded, thus restricting the universe to 93 million.
2. The population setting of this census was a dense, urban population and excluded 64 percent of the rural population of Pakistan thus reducing the universe to 33 million people from the adult, urban population. It must be noted that the infectivity quotient (R0) is very different between densely urban and less crowded rural populations ranging from 1.4 to 3.9.[9] ,[10]
3. This is a cross-sectional sero-prevalence survey which also includes people who have had COVID-19, have recovered, and are now immune. 90% of those tested positivefrom various workplaces had asymptomatic individuals who would otherwise have never presented for a PCR testing at a government approved facility and would have continued to spread the infection had they not been incidentally tested by their workplaces.
4. Serological kits like the ones Getz Pharma used are FDA EUA approved, with a false positive rate ranging from 2% to a maximum of 7% (Stanford & Massachusetts study)[11] due to nonspecific immunity & nonspecific protection to COVID-19. There may be minimum cross-reactivity with other previous SARS virus. The antibodies can be general and nonspecific to COVID-19 but may be able to provide protection from COVID-19. Studies are still underway to prove this hypothesis (mainly through passive immunization from convalescent COVID-19 plasma which has both specific COVID-19 antibodies as well as nonspecific IVIG). According to a paper published in a peer-reviewed journal in JAMA, even the "gold standard" PCR kits can have an accuracy ranging from 32% (pharyngeal swab) to 63% (nasal swab) depending on the technique of sample collection, the site and the phase of the disease.[12]
5. The initial findings from the workplace census conducted by Getz Pharma show a high prevalence of humoral, adaptive immunity (specific to COVID-19 or cross reactivity to previous SARS) in the Pakistani population, which is different from innate immunity.[13] This is the first of its kind, large scale, groundbreaking census on healthy, urban adults between 18 to 65 years of age.
6. Caution must be applied before assuming that Pakistan is entering herd immunity as there are no studies available to date on our population which show what prevalence is needed in a population before herd immunity kicks in, for how long IgG remains in the blood, and whether or not the serological response is protective or not. The prevalence needed to achieve Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) has been cited to be 29–74% in literature.[14] Additionally, for herd immunity to be successful, the recovered individuals must carry IgG in the blood for up to many months otherwise the immunity offered is temporary and not able to contribute to herd immunity or even protection from reinfection. Hence, Getz Pharma is conducting a sequential study on recovered individuals to assess the duration of IgG level in the blood.
7. Sero-prevalence studies can allow us to assess the prevalence of the disease rather than just the incidence as indicated through PCR testing of symptomatic individuals. Sero-prevalence studies provide us information about the extent of infections which may be many folds higher than what PCR reported cases indicate[15] [16]. The Santa Clara study[17] and the Iran study[18] showed similar results what Getz Pharma found in Pakistan - the sero-positivity prevalence of COVID-19 indicated that the asymptomatic infection is much higher than the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19. According to media reports sent to Punjab Chief Minister Usman Buzdar in June 2020, up to 670,000 persons could be infected in Lahore alone,[19] yet, a month later, Pakistan is still officially reporting only a total 231,818 PCR confirmed cases (as of 6th July, 2020)[20]. Hence the findings from the sero-prevalence study become even more significant given the context of Pakistan’s rising and under reported cases, as the official data severely under-estimates the true prevalence of infections.
8. Antibody surveys conducted in Germany, the Netherlands, and United States revealed that anywhere between 2% to 30% of certain populations have been infected with COVID-19[21], and the number of confirmed cases provided by government statistics are a much smaller fraction of the true number of people infected. According to Mark Perkins, a diagnostics expert at the World Health Organization, the current number of confirmed cases should have at least indicated 45-60% positive cases,[22] as it would have accurately demonstrated the true extent of silent transmission and possible immunity in the population. However, in reality, even the high numbers being reported are relatively small compared to the true prevalence of the virus. This means that widespread serologic testing is required to ensure that most of the population is screened for COVID-19, so the findings can then be used to better detect infection fatality rate and decide for public policy guidelines.
Like any other epidemiological survey, before it is conclusive, further studies are needed.
Study Results and Extrapolations:
1.     So far, over 24,000 people across various industries’ head offices, banks, restaurants, hospitals, schools and media houses have been screened by Getz Pharma, including all of its own workers.
2.     Out of the total sample size, the total positive cases were 17.5% in the workplace population. Most of these were ongoing infections at 11.5%, while 6% had recovered.
3.     From a sample of 24,210 individuals recruited in the study, a total of 8,937 registered employees were screened from factories and corporate offices. Out of these, 15.2% tested positive. Specifically, 7.2% tested IgM positive, while 4.8% tested IgG positive and 3.2% were combined IgM and IgG positive. This prevalence can be extrapolated to the one million registered working population of Karachi, meaning at least 152,000 infected cases in Karachi alone, with 104,000 being currently infected, unaware and spreading infection to those around them.
4.     These findings can be applied to the remaining urban workforce of Pakistan with similar demographics, between the ages of 18-65 years. By taking a base population of 61.7 million registered workers[23] between this age range in Pakistan, assuming that 36% live in urban areas with similar workplace dynamics (22.21 million), it can be extrapolated that 4,110,381 (4.11 million) from the working population are currently infected/exposed to COVID-19 as of 6th July, 2020.
5.     From a total of 896 individuals screened from media houses and print media, 8.6% tested positive, with 4.7% IgM positive, 2.9% IgG positive and 1% with both. Taking a base population of 50,000 media individuals in Pakistan including mainstream media and print media, we can extrapolate that 4,297 individuals from the media industry of Pakistan are currently exposed to COVID-19.
6.     Amongst 3,120 healthcare workers including doctors and paramedics from different metropoles in Pakistan (Karachi, Lahore, Multan, Peshawar, Quetta) 17% tested positive, with 4.1% currently infected and 4.6% IgG positive which meant that they had been infected in the past and now recovered. Taking a base population of 313,457 healthcare workers [24] across Pakistan as per WHO EMRO, we can extrapolate that  53,248  healthcare workers are currently exposed to COVID-19.
7.     Out of a total of 7,857 individuals screened who were household contacts of a positive case, it was found that 15.9% individuals tested positive, with 4.2% IgM positive, 4.8% IgG positive and 6.8% had both. With 231,818 PCR cases being reported as of 6th July, 2020[25], taking an average Pakistani household size of 6.7[26], the base population on family members of positive cases is 1,553,181. Given a 15.9% secondary Household attack rate, we can extrapolate that 246,508 household members of positive cases are currently exposed to COVID-19.
8.     Out of a total of 3,400 symptomatic individuals in the study, who requested for symptom-based testing at their households, 30% tested positive, with 16% IgM positive and 14% IgG positive. As of 6th July, 2020, there have been 1,420,623 [27] symptom-based COVID-19 tests across Pakistan. If the study was to be extrapolated to all tests done who presented with symptoms, given the false negativity of PCR especially when viral load is less, and given a 30% prevalence of test positivity in individuals who have symptoms, at least    426,187 people currently have COVID-19 in Pakistan.
9.     Overall, from a sample of 24,210 individuals screened, 17.5% tested positive, with 7% IgM positive, 6.0% IgG positive and 4.5% combined IgM and IgG positive. Given the above extrapolations while keeping the study limitations in mind, we can extrapolate that as of 6th July, 2020, currently 4.11 million individuals in Pakistan have been infected with COVID-19 as opposed to 231,818 that the official figures of Pakistan are quoting.[28]
10.  Interestingly, over 90% of those who tested COVID-19 positive did not have any symptoms. But they were infective and were continuing to spread the virus to those around them. Because of their non-existent or mild symptoms, they had not reached out to a PCR testing facility to get tested for COVID-19, and were only incidentally picked out by the antibody test during the mass screening and testing campaign.
11.  While the Getz Pharma study showed sero-prevalence of 17.5% at workplaces, the newly emergent cases at 6 weeks had an incidence rate of 7%. This means that on baseline, at least 17.5% of the Pakistani adult, working class population has COVID-19 at any given point in time, and every 6 weeks 7% more cases are added to the baseline pool.
12.  We did not study people at high risk other than frontline healthcare providers. We targeted adults in the general population from all walks of life in the urban setting. Hence the findings cannot be extrapolated to rural populations.
13.  We need a household, multistage, cluster random survey to find the true extent of the disease. This is what it looks like in a highly urban, dense, adult working class population.

Glossary:
Term
Definition
Antibody
A blood protein produced in response to and counteracting a specific antigen. Antibodies combine chemically with substances which the body recognizes as alien, such as bacteria, viruses, and foreign substances in the blood.
Asymptomatic
A condition producing or showing no symptoms.
Case fatality
A case fatality rate (CFR) is the proportion of deaths within a designated population due to a given medical condition (cases), of such cases over the course of the disease. A CFR is conventionally expressed as a percentage and represents a measure of risk.
Immunity
The ability of an organism to resist a particular infection or toxin by the action of specific antibodies or sensitized white blood cells.
Immunoglobulin G
Immunoglobulin G is a type of antibody generated by the body in response to an antigen.
Immunoglobulin M
Immunoglobulin M is one of several isotypes of antibody that are produced by vertebrates. IgM is the largest antibody, and it is the first antibody to appear in the response to initial exposure to an antigen.
Infectivity quotient
In epidemiology, infectivity is the ability of a pathogen to establish an infection. More specifically, infectivity is a pathogen's capacity for horizontal transmission that is, how frequently it spreads among hosts that are not in a parent-child relationship.
SARS-CoV-2
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the strain of coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the respiratory illness responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic.
Secondary household attack rate
Secondary attack rate refers to the spread of disease in a family, household, dwelling unit, dormitory, or similar circumscribed group.
Sensitivity
The probability that a medical test will detect the condition being tested for in people who actually have the condition. A sensitive test is one that produces true positive results.
Specificity
The specificity of a test rules out someone who has not been exposed to the virus and has not developed antibodies, i.e. a true negative rate.
Serologic test
Serologic tests are blood tests that look for antibodies in your blood. They can involve a number of laboratory techniques. Different types of serologic tests are used to diagnose various disease conditions. Serologic tests have one thing in common. They all focus on proteins made by your immune system.
Seroprevalence
The level of a pathogen in a population, as measured in blood serum.
PCR
Polymerase chain reaction, or PCR, is a laboratory technique used to make multiple copies of a segment of DNA. PCR is very precise and can be used to amplify, or copy, a specific DNA target from a mixture of DNA molecules. It is used to detect the viral load of COVID-19 in the infected population.


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