India's population has aged faster than expected while its economic growth has slowed over the last decade. This raises the obvious questions: Will India get old before it gets rich? Is India getting poorer relative to its peers in the emerging markets?
India's Population Aging. Source: Semafor |
As India's birth rate declines rapidly, the proportion of people age 60 and over is rising in the general population. This is particularly true of the southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Meanwhile, the expected demographic dividend from the youth bulge in the country has yet to materialize. High youth unemployment is threatening to cause serious social instability in the world's most populous country. It is also causing a massive brain drain.
India's GDP Per Capita Compared to Emerging Markets Average. Source: IMF |
India is losing its best and brightest to the West, particularly to the United States, at an increasingly rapid pace. A 2023 study of the 1,000 top scorers in the 2010 entrance exams to the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) — a network of prestigious institutions of higher learning based in 23 Indian cities — revealed the scale of the problem. Around 36% migrated abroad, and of the top 100 scorers, 62% left the country, according to a report in the science journal Nature. Nearly two-thirds of those leaving India are highly educated, having received academic or vocational training. This is the highest for any country, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Annual Population Growth Rapidly Falling Across India. Source: Semafor |
India has the lowest GDP per capita among the 5 BRICS nations. The country's GDP growth rate is much slower than the average for emerging markets. It means that India is becoming poorer relative to the rest of the developing world.
GDP Per Capita Map 2024. Source: IMF |
India's GDP Per Capita is Very Low. Source: BBC |
The north-side geographic divide in India is growing. The southern five of India’s 28 states (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana) contain 20% of the population and contribute 31% of the GDP, according to The Economist magazine. Among startups, 46% of tech “unicorns” are southerners, particularly from Bangalore. The five southern states provide 66% of the it-services industry’s exports. The latest craze is for “global capability centers”, where multinationals assemble their global auditors, lawyers, designers, architects and other professionals: 79% of these hubs are in the south.
Indian Parliament Seats Based on Current Population. Source: National Herald |
There has always been a north-south divide in India in terms of population and wealth. The south has been wealthier and less populous than the north. But the political power is still concentrated in the poorer and more populous northern states. This situation serves Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP party well. But it also creates significant resentment in southern states.
In his book "The Raisina Model", British Lord Meghand Desai says that India's breakup can not be ruled out. Specifically, he points to three issues that could lead to it:
1. Cow protection squads are killing Muslims and jeopardizing their livelihoods. The current agitation about beef eating and gau raksha is in the Hindi belt just an excuse for attacking Muslims blatantly. As most slaughterhouses in UP are Muslim-owned, owners and employees of these places are prime targets.
2. India has still not fashioned a narrative about its nationhood which can satisfy all. The two rival narratives—secular and Hindu nation—are both centered in the Hindi belt extending to Gujarat and Maharashtra at the most. This area comprises 51% of the total population and around 45% of the Muslims in India.
3. India has avoided equal treatment of unequal units. Representation in the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Parliament) is proportional to population size. The larger states dominate both Houses of Parliament. It would be difficult for small states to object, much less initiate reform. In future, small states could unite to present their case for better treatment.
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23 comments:
Riaz Sb.,
Comparing China with India, Francis Fujiyama wrote that unity is the natural form of China, it gets disintegrated then gets united. Whereas disintegration is the natural form of India, it gets united for a while then disintegrates.
G. Ali
Haven't I seen multiple articles on this exact same subject on this blog barely months ago? Or is it a deja vu? I am aware that you tend to view emigration from India as "brain drain" and signs of an economy in crisis, while the same from Pakistan is seen as "export of manpower" and "reaping demographic dividend", but it would be a welcome change if you were to write more frequently about the same economic and demographic issues confronting Pakistan. Like I said in an earlier comment in one of those articles, the so-called "demographic dividend" of a young population can very well turn into a "demographic disaster" for a country if it continues be mired in recurring economic crises and political instability. By the looks of it, despite having a smaller and younger population, Pakistan faces a far greater challenge in attracting foreign investment and generating jobs for its people due to the cycle of political instability, economic crisis and rising militant attacks.
"In his book "The Raisina Model", British Lord Meghand Desai says that India's breakup can not be ruled out."
We have heard this fantasy before. I know that Pakistanis have been predicting - and hoping for - India's breakup for the past 75 years (and I wouldn't really blame them for wishing it considering the history of mutual animosity between the two countries), but let me say that it is unlikely to transpire any time soon due to one oft-overlooked factor: democracy. As much imperfect as it may seem, the Indian political system and elections have always acted as a pressure relief valve for social and political tensions. India is far more diverse than Pakistan linguistically, culturally and politically and the faultlines are plenty, but the country is still in one piece and is no closer to breaking up than it was 75 years ago.
Also, despite the "south" often being depicted as a distinct bloc, the fact is that southern states are themselves very diverse linguistically and culturally, and has many disputes between themselves (especially in river water sharing) that would prevent them from putting up a united front against the "north". Its funny really, that when I - a native Malayalam speaker from Kerala - travelled to various places in neighbouring Karnataka, I often had to resort to the use of my rudimentary Hindi at shops as I could neither understand Kannada nor read their script. It is a similar situation with the other southern states as well, despite all of them speaking the Dravidian family of languages. This linguistic conundrum and cultural diversity is a reality here in the south, and actually makes any chance of their secession (the so-called "Dravidistan") very remote.
That said, the growing gulf between the development and demographic realities of the "north" and the "south" is a fact, and the upcoming delimitation of Parliament seats based on the new census data is only going to weaken the political clout of the "south" further unless it were redressed in some other manner (though the said delimitation is welcome in addressing one long-standing fault of Indian political system by guaranteeing a minimum political representation of women through reservation of one-third of seats in both the Parliament and state legislatures). Perhaps the problem could be addressed by reforming the upper house of the Parliament to ensure greater representation of the southern states, or by guaranteeing a more fairer distribution of tax revenues and national budget. Indian political system isn't set as a monolithic bloc. It is fluid, and there is plenty of room for such reforms through consensus.
Also, this last point reminds me about an interesting subject I often encounter in my readings in DAWN - the famous 18th amendment of Pakistani constitution, and how the extent of provincial autonomy guaranteed by it compares to that in India.
"We have heard this fantasy before.".
... same can be said about Indians. Any hickup in Pakistan's situation or
economic condition and some Indian writers an article about Pakistan 's demise or that it should merge back with India. Just wondering if you ever criticized them?
Hello to all members of this blog.
Many Indians specially those who beat their chest and feel proud about their economic growth must know and realize that it is not just GDP or economic growth that matters, it is in fact the GDP per capita that matters most.
Actually Indian government of BJP is more concerned about promoting their governments image internationally without realizing the fact that how much unemployment is their in India and how much poverty is their in the country.
India is already rich, while it is still the youngest. With 700 billion reserves, a stable economy, and the highest growth rate in the world. According to the World Bank report, it is the only country with zero probability of recession. Mind about Pakistan and how fast it is sinking. In the next five years, you will be torn into five pieces and none of the pieces will have Pakistan as its name. Pakistan will cease to exist and become a vassal nation of other powers. As it is, it is ruled by the IMF, China and other donor nations who dictate what should be the prices of tomatoes and petrol in Pakistan.
India getting disintegrated is a fantasy. However, it can indeed get old before getting "rich" or in other words, it can get middle income trapped just like Turkey, Malaysia and probably China did.
I highly recommend Raghuram Rajan's latest book about economic challenges (and his solutions).
Mr. Sanjeev
Your comments actually reflect your prejudism and grudges which your extremist and arrogant Indians hold for Pakistan. Pls come out of your fantasy world. Pakistan is not Sri Lanka, Nepal or Bangladesh.
Inorder to disintegrate Pakistan your army, navy and airforce needs guys, confidence and determination which they are seriously lacking.
Your own retired Indian generals, majors and other military officials have said in an interview which they gave on a podcast to Indian hosts that Indian Army can't take POK( Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) by force from Pakistan.According to him, the only option left for India is to have a dialogue and table talk with Pakistani authorities in order to regain POK.
Recently a Pakistani airforce chief said that mashallah PAF( Pakistan Airforce) is 14 years ahead of IAF( Indian Airforce). As soon as PAF chief said this, Indian media started crying and started showing concern about it.
Mr. sanjeev
Before coming here and showing your biases and hated for Pakistan and before underestimating Pakistan. Pls go and check the interview of another retired Indian officer or general who gave an interview in the podcast. He says that India can't afford to have a conventional war with Pakistan forget about nuclear confrontation.
He further said that they as Indians must look at the condition of India as their is huge poverty in India, many villages in India don't have safe and clean drinking water for its people. He further said that out of 100% of the drinking water that is available in India at the moment, only 4℅of that water is suitable and clean enough for drinking. He further said that look at the conditions of most of the schools in India and also see how much unemployment is their in India. These were the words of your own retire Indian officer or general when he gave interviee on a podcast.
And you Indians very arrogantly and confidently talk about your huge foreign exchange reserves and economic growth?
What is the use and benefit of having such huge foreign exchange reserves and economic growth if common people in India are not benefiting from it and are instead mostly suffering?
Mr. sanjeev
Out of total 100℅ of the population in India which is over 1 billion. At least 80 ℅ population of India gets 5 KG of wheat (ata).
In GLOBAL POVERTY index, India has a share of 33℅ which is the highest share any country has in this index.
Perhaps you are referring to India's "Godi media"? They are sensationalist and have zero credibility. I do not watch them, and isn't even worth any criticism as they are nothing more than paid stooges of Modi govt.
I wouldn't say Pakistan is anywhere close to disintegration, nor will I call it a "failed state" like Indian media usually does. But by the looks of it, Pakistan is grappling with a far greater crisis - an "existential crisis", "polycrisis" or "perfect storm", as some Pakistani columnists call it – than anything India faces at present. It doesn't look like merely a "hiccup" that will pass away anytime soon.
Mr. Sanjeev
This is the same World Bank from which Indian government requested ( indirectly begged) million of dollars so that Indian government of BJP could improve and fix its countries problems of sanitation.
And pls know that according to TOI( Times of India) reports, since last 60 years, India has received highest amount of economic aid from America.
Their are total 10 countries in the world which received highest amount of aid from America and India is ranked at the top in that list at number 1.
Japan is the biggest donar to India.
Mr. sanjeev
Pakistan is not a ship or a boat that would sink in the sea and neither it is floating on the sea. Yes problems are their in Pakistan but pls note that Pakistan is are resilient people and they know how to cope with such issues and how to survive.
Sanjeev,
There is an English saying that you can fool some of the people some of the time but you can't fool all the people all the time. Who ever came up with it never met an Indian. When it comes to Pakistan, you guys can be fooled all the time. That is what your leaders, your media and pundits have been telling you for seventy plus years but you never learn. Nehru in 1940s had predicted that Pakistan will come knocking on India's door in less than 50 years, well guess what?
As far as having $700 billion is concerned, well India's suicide rate went up by over 25% between 2019 & 2022 and quarter of them were day wagers. I am sure they died happily that they may not have food to feed their families but at least the country has $700 billion in reserves.
Now I wait for Vineet to see if he goes after you for your stupid comments or shows the typical Indian double standard.
G. Ali
@G. Ali, We have the history of Pakistan splitting into two in 1971 over the imposition of Urdu and denial of political rights to East Bengalis, but when was the last time you heard about the modern Indian republic disintegrating or facing threat of disintegration? For all its faults and failings, Indian democracy and political system is more resilient than you assume and provides enough room for India's diversity to coexist.
"India" has always been linguistically and culturally diverse and politically divided like Europe was, but just as in the case of Europe there were strong undercurrents of cultural links and shared identities as well. If some kind uniformity has not been forced on Pakistanis by its ruling class, the case of Pakistan would be similar as well, if only in a smaller scale. After all, what historical, cultural or political identity unites a "nation" of Punjabis, Sindhis, Balochis and Pakhtuns? Religion? East Bengal broke away because they valued their "Bengali" ethnic and linguistic identity more than any forced unity of religion. Modern Bangladesh is a defined by a shared identity of ethnicity and language, but neither India nor Pakistan are such.
I know that there is a general perception (and a misconception) that China is somehow a more homogeneous nation compared to India. China's case is actually a forced "homogeneity" that has been imposed by its rulers. For instance, most of the so-called Chinese "dialects" are in fact distinct and mutually unintelligible. By our definition, these Chinese "dialects" would be called "languages". If Indian govt were to borrow Chinese terminology, India would at most have one or two languages - Hindi "dialects" spoken in the north and Dravidian "dialects" spoken in the south, except that these "dialects" would be mostly mutually unintelligible and distinct languages. Furthermore, the Chinese government imposed Standard Mandarin as the only medium of instruction in schools and actively discouraged other regional languages, while in India many of the states have retained their local vernacular languages as their official languages and medium of instruction in schools. (That said, there is however some concern of "Hindi" swallowing up many native languages in the northern states due to official apathy.)
Suffice to say, had modern India imposed linguitsic, cultural and political uniformity on its population (by imposing Hindi like the way Pakistan imposed Urdu or Chinese imposed Standard Mandarin, for example) it would have appeared more "homogenous".
Salam Sir Ali
Very good and excellent reply, I have actually read comments of many Indians on YouTube channels and on Facebook groups where they actually brag about their economic growth.
One should ask these Indians that if the economy of India is performing as good as the indian media and Indian government claims then why the unemployment is high in India? According to labour participation rate reports, India has more unemployment than Pakistan and other neighbouring countries. Also India has much more poverty than Pakistan and other developing countries.
Their is huge shortage of clean drinking water in India.
One should ask these emotional and arrogant Indians that since BJP came into government, what have they done for India and for the people of India?
Salam Sir Ali
Another important fact, Indian government claims to have one of the fastest growing economy in the world. Pls ask these Indians that if this is true than why doesn't the BJP government releases the data of unemployment in the country?
Why did the chief economic advisor of PM Modi resigned few years ago?
Sir Ali and other Pakistanis of this blog.
Actually these Indians think that Pakistanis lack knowledge and are ignorant. They don't even know that their are several great and learned Pakistanis who know about the economic facts and realities of India but unfortunately they mostly reside outside Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Top Talent Is Leaving the Country in Record Numbers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-10-31/pakistan-s-brightest-leave-at-record-pace-with-high-cost-of-living-pkr-drop?embedded-checkout=true
Economic hardship has pushed skilled workers to move abroad, hollowing out banks, hospitals and multinational companies.
One million skilled workers — doctors, engineers, accountants and managers, among others — left Pakistan over the past three years alone, according to a government tally. That makes Pakistan one of the top 10 countries for emigration.
Asad Ejaz Butt is one of Pakistan’s best and brightest. After completing graduate studies in Canada, the economist returned home with a drive to contribute to his home country and its development.
Yet prestigious jobs working under two finance ministers weren’t enough to pay the bills. Over the past few years, as Pakistan’s inflation outranked any other nation in Asia, Butt couldn’t afford basic necessities, including rent. So he left his highly coveted government job and moved back to North America — to buy time and complete another advanced degree.
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https://youtu.be/YAeOOpk0OEI?si=thP0nkD0AL5l-ZwU
A growing number of skilled workers are leaving Pakistan, seeking opportunities abroad as their country faces one of Asia’s highest inflation rates, rising food and energy prices and a devalued currency.
To address the dire economic situation, the government has implemented unpopular reforms, including raising corporate tax rates and utility prices. These measures are part of Pakistan’s latest $7 billion loan deal with the International Monetary Fund, aimed at averting national bankruptcy.
But the result of all this has been an increasing number of would-be taxpayers emigrating to wealthier nations. So what does that mean for the country’s economic and political prospects?
Doesn't that apply to your patron state? Have you checked their per capita lately?
Slightly off-topic, but it would seem that despite the "success" in securing yet another IMF bailout and achieving some measure of economic stabilization, even Pakistan's "friendly" and "brotherly" partners aren't too enthusiastic about investing in Pakistan at the moment. The Pakistani FO may be "perplexed" that the Chinese ambassador chose to air his concerns openly, but his public comments raise the question about the tense conversations that has been happening behind the facade of unwavering friendship and eternal brotherhood.
FO perplexed by concerns over security of Chinese
https://www.dawn.com/news/1869028/fo-perplexed-by-concerns-over-security-of-chinese
Chasing investment
https://www.dawn.com/news/1868832
Seeking investment
https://www.dawn.com/news/1869044/seeking-investment
Meanwhile, I do not know what exactly were the drivers behind the recent agreement between India and China to pull back troops from contested areas in Ladakh and resume patrols, but with a slowdown in both the Indian and Chinese economies and with China facing the looming prospect of new tariff barriers in the Western markets, there is hopefully a mutual desire to normalize trade relations and investment, push territorial disputes to the background and rebuild trust - which is really the sensible way forward for India-Pakistan relations as well, instead of hurting each other through endless proxy conflicts over a 75-year old territorial dispute.
Hello Sir Zen
Their is no 100℅ surety that India will disintegrate but their are greater chances for it to happen. Future is actually is in the hands of Almighty.
As per the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD], “In terms of magnitude of the high-skilled diaspora in the OECD area, India takes the lead, with over 3 million tertiary-educated migrants, followed by China [2 million] and the Philippines [1.8 million].”
The findings were published in OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No. 239. The data refers to 2015/16.
https://www.y-axis.com/news/india-produces-highest-number-highly-educated-migrants/
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This chart shows where the world's highly educated migrants come from
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2020/12/where-do-highly-educated-migrants-come-from/#:~:text=For%20India%2C%20which%20topped%20the,the%20OECD%20%E2%80%93%20or%202.25%20million.
OECD data reveals that there are around 120 million migrants living in OECD member countries. 30 to 35 percent of these migrants are considered highly educated, meaning they have received vocational or academic training. Among the most common birth countries for highly educated migrants, these shares are a lot higher, however.
For India, which topped the list as of 2015/16 with more than three million highly educated migrants in the OECD, the share of those considered of high education status was nearly 65 percent. China had a rate of 48.6 percent highly educated migrants in the OECD – or 2.25 million.
The Philippines come in rank 3, behind the world’s two biggest countries and ahead of a list of OECD nations, naturally trading highly educated personnel back and forth with each other, especially within Europe. 53.3 percent of Filipino immigrants to the OECD are considered highly educated, which brings the total to almost 1.9 million for a country of just over 100 million inhabitants. In a paper on the Philippines, the International Labor Organization finds that many of those high skilled migrants - to OECD countries and elsewhere – were health care professionals, especially nurses. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, the Philippines government has put a stop to this brain drain at least temporarily by capping the deployment of newly hired nurses at 5,000 per year.
Around half of Filipino migrants in the OECD chose the United States, forming one of the most important migration corridors identified by the OECD, behind Mexican and Indian immigration to the United States and ahead of Polish immigration to Germany.
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