Pakistan has created more jobs, graduated more people from schools and colleges, built a larger middle class and lifted more people out of poverty as percentage of its population than India in the last decade. And Pakistan has done so in spite of the huge challenges posed by the war in Afghanistan and a very violent insurgency at home.
The above summary is based on volumes of recently released reports and data on job creation, education, middle class size, public hygiene, poverty and hunger over the last decade that offer new surprising insights into the lives of ordinary people in two South Asian countries. It adds to my previous post on this blog titled "India and Pakistan Contrasted in 2010".
Pakistan Created More Jobs:
Pakistan's employment growth has been the highest in South Asia region since 2000, followed by Nepal, Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka in that order, according to a recent World Bank report titled "More and Better Jobs in South Asia". 
Total employment in South Asia (excluding Afghanistan and Bhutan) rose from 473 million in 2000 to 568 million in 2010, creating an average of just under 800,000 new jobs a month. In all countries except Maldives and Sri Lanka, the largest share of the employed are the low‐end self-employed.
Pakistan Graduated More People:
Although India has higher rates of literacy and enrollment than Pakistan, Pakistanis spend more time in schools and colleges and graduate at a higher rate than their Indian counterparts in 15+ age group, according to a report on educational achievement by Harvard University researchers Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee.
In a recent Op Ed titled "Preparing the Population for a Modern Economy" published by Pakistan's Express Tribune, Pakistani economist Shahid Burki wrote as follows:
"Pakistan does well in one critical area — the drop-out rate in tertiary education. Those who complete tertiary education in Pakistan account for a larger proportion of persons who enter school at this level. The proportion is much higher for girls, another surprising finding for Pakistan."
Upon closer examination of Barro-Lee data on "Educational Attainment for Total Population, 1950-2010", it is clear that Pakistani students stay in schools and colleges longer to graduate at higher rates than Indian students at all levels--primary, secondary and tertiary. While India's completion rate at all levels is a dismal 22.9%, the comparable completion rate in Pakistan is 45.7%. 
Here is a summary of Barro-Lee's 2010 data in percentage of 15+ age group students who have enrolled in and-or completed primary, secondary and tertiary education:
Education Level.......India........Pakistan
Primary (Total)........20.9..........21.8
Primary (Completed)....18.9..........19.3
Secondary(Total).......40.7..........34.6
Secondary(Completed)...0.9...........22.5
College(Total).........5.8...........5.5
College(Completed).....3.1...........3.9
Pakistan Has Larger Middle Class:
Over the last two decades, Pakistan has continued to offer much greater upward economic and social mobility to its citizens than neighboring India. Since 1990, Pakistan's middle class had expanded by 36.5% and India's by only 12.8%, according to an ADB report on Asia's rising middle class released recently.
An ADB report on Asia's rising middle class released this month confirms that Pakistan's middle class has grown to 40% of the population, significantly larger than the Indian middle class of about 25% of its population, and it has been growing faster than India's middle class. The other significant news reported by Wall Street Journal says the vast majority of what is defined as India's middle class is perched just above $2 a day, making it vulnerable to various shocks. This is also true of Pakistan.
Pakistan Has Less Hunger and Poverty:
In spite of recent poverty declines with its rapid economic expansion, India still has higher poverty rates than Pakistan, according to a 2011 World Bank report titled "Perspectives on poverty in India : stylized facts from survey data" released in 2011.
Overall, the latest World Bank data shows that India's poverty rate of 27.5%, based on India's current poverty line of $1.03 per person per day, is more than 10 percentage points higher than Pakistan's 17.2%. Assam (urban), Punjab and Himachal Pradesh are the only three Indian states with lower poverty rates than Pakistan's. 
Based on hunger data collected from 2003 to 2008, IFPRI reported that Pakistan's hunger index score improved over the last three consecutive years reported since 2008 from 21.7 (2008) to 21.0 (2009) to 19.1 (2010) and its ranking rose from 61 to 58 to 52. During the same period, India's index score worsened from 23.7 to 23.9 to 24.1 and its ranking moved from 66 to 65 to 67 on a list of 84 nations.
India's Economic Growth Outpaces Pakistan's
Indian economy has been growing faster than Pakistan for several years. The nominal per capita incomes in the two nation are still about the same at just over $1200, according to 2011 data released by Economic Survey of India and Economic Survey of Pakistan.
Nominal per capita incomes in both India and Pakistan stand at just over $1200 a year, according to figures released in May and June of 2011 by the two governments. This translates to about $3100 per capita in terms of PPP (purchasing power parity). Using a more generous PPP correction factor of 2.9 for India as claimed by Economic Survey of India 2011 rather than the 2.5 estimated by IMF for both neighbors, the PPP GDP per capita for Indian and Pakistan work out to $3532 and $3135 respectively.
Nominal per capita income of Indians grew by 17.9 per cent to Rs 54,835, or $1218, in 2010-11 from Rs 46,492 in the year-ago period, according to the revised data released by the government in May, 2011 as reported by Indian media.
Pakistan Has Better Public Hygiene:
India has the worst public sanitation situation in the world today, according to a recent UNICEF survey. In terms of open defecation, India(638m) is followed by Indonesia (58m), China (50m), Ethiopia (49m), Pakistan (48m), Nigeria (33m) and Sudan (17m). In terms of percentage of each country's population resorting to the unhygienic practice, Ethiopia tops the list with 60%, followed by India 54%, Nepal 50%, Pakistan 28%, Indonesia 26%, and China 4%.
18 percent of urban India still defecates in open while the percentage of rural India is as high as 69 percent of the population. It is the key reason why India carries among the highest infectious disease burdens in the world.
To conclude, let me share with you an except from a piece written by Mudassar Mazhar Malik, an MIT (Sloan) and LSE (London) educated Pakistani economist and investment banker,on his assessment of Pakistan today:
"First, despite seven changes in government in the past twenty years, Pakistan has maintained an average growth rate of 5 percent per annum. Until recently, Pakistan was being touted as one of the most dramatic turn-around stories of the last decade. Driven by domestic demand and population growth, GDP growth averaged over 6% a year from 2003-2008. This translated into an investment and infrastructure led growth cycle cycle fueling expansion in the housing, health care, education, food, infrastructure, energy, telecommunications, IT and financial services sector. This has meant that Pakistan's economy has moved progressively from its traditional agricultural base to manufacturing and increasingly to services. In that sense, Pakistan's economic structure is closer to that of India and China, and is unlike many smaller Asian countries, which are more dependent on export growth."
While it still has a very long way to go to improve its ordinary citizens' lives, resilient Pakistan has done reasonably well in terms of economic and social indicators over the last decade in spite of huge challenges. Just imagine how much better Pakistan could have done if it had any semblance of political stability and security.
Related Links:
Haq's Musings
Pakistan Tops Job Growth in South Asia
Pakistan Ahead of India in Graduation Rates
India-Pakistan Compared By Dr. Ishrat Husain
Public Sanitation Worst in India
Pakistan's Middle Class
Per Capita Incomes in India and Pakistan
The Pakistan Story After 64 Years
Resilient Pakistan Defies Doomsayers
Threre are more reasons to migrate to Canada
1 year ago
43 comments:
Well said sir.
A recent report by a Govt commission in Pakistan found an "Education Emergency" in public education that paints a grim picture.
Here's an excerpt from a Financial Times story on Indian education crisis:
A report on the state of Indian education, the largest study of the country’s rural children, makes for grim reading.
India’s schools are in bad shape, and not getting any better. Maths ability is declining, and reading is way below where it should be.
The Annual Status of Education Report 2010, prepared by Pratham, an education non-governmental organisation supported by many of India’s top companies, has a blunt message. School enrolment is up but quality is unacceptably low. Inadequate state provision is fuelling the expansion of private education, which India’s largely poor people can ill-afford.
Here are some of the report’s key findings:
1. 96.5 per cent of children in the 6 to 14 age group in rural India are enrolled in school. While 71.1 per cent of these children are enrolled in government schools, 24.3 per cent are enrolled in private schools.
2. India’s southern states in particular are moving strongly towards more private sector education provision. The percentage of children in private school increased from 29.7 per cent to 36.1 per cent in Andhra Pradesh, from 19.7 per cent to 25 per cent in Tamil Nadu and from 51.5 per cent to 54.2 per cent in Kerala
3. There has been a decrease in children’s ability to do simple mathematics. The proportion of Standard 1 children who could recognise numbers from 1-9 has declined.
4. After five years of schooling, close to half of children are below a level expected after just two years of formal education. Half of these children cannot read. Only one child in five can recognise numbers up to 100.
5. Toilets were useable in only half the 13,000 schools surveyed. Teacher attendance was 63 per cent, lower than pupil attendance.
Kapil Sibal, the new education minister, has breathed some life into a portfolio left moribund by his elderly predecessor Arjun Singh. But lately, Mr Sibal, a lawyer, has been seconded into the telecommunications ministry to clean up a mess surrounding the controversial award of new 2G licences that may have cost the exchequer as much as $39bn.
There are few more important challenges in India than improving its schools. Not for the first time ineptitude and greed at the top are robbing India’s young of resources.
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/01/17/indian-schools-failing/#axzz1aLbWwL1D
This is Pak vs India as told by Pak's best intellectual.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkBD2Z7hSEo
See what Dr. Hoodbhoy talks about Indian economy and Indian education.
Don't shoot me Riaz. I am just a messenger.
Pls compare sales of cars, IPad and other middle class items. Pak is no where close to India. Latest issue of Economist mentions India has 24 cars per 1000, not too long ago it was less than 10. Pak is still ~12-15 per thousand and already declining.
One look at the advertising industry of Pakistan for 20/20 cricket tells why Pak is rightly called backward economy. No money for cricketers. No wonder they want to shamelessly play in India and make money.
These are real indicators of state of economy. Not fudged up numbers in blogs.
Pakistan economy, like its people, is a joke.
Anil: "See what Dr. Hoodbhoy talks about Indian economy and Indian education."
Self criticism is a good thing, and every nation needs a few Cassandras to remind them where they are lacking. Pakistan has lots of Cassandras and India has few.
Sanjay: "Pls compare sales of cars, IPad and other middle class items."
Cars and iPads are not a substitute for better nutrition and more toilets which is what the world's largest population of poor, hungry, illiterate and sick people in India needs.
http://www.riazhaq.com/2010/08/63-years-after-independence-india.html
Besides, Pakistan is also experiencing a consumption boom. Auto sales in Pakistan jumped 61% in July and are continuing to increase by double digits after the crash of 2008.
http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/08/pakistani-middle-class-pushes-car-sales.html
Nestle Pakistan's chief Ian Donald has summed up the rising demand for his company's products as follows: “It’s a common perception that China and India are much bigger in terms of growth than Pakistan. But for Nestle, the per capita consumption of our products in Pakistan is twice as much as we have in China and India.” It should be noted that Nestle is the world's largest packaged food company, and Pakistanis' per capita consumption of milk and dairy products is about 2.5 times higher than in India. According to the FAO, the average dairy consumption of the developing countries is still very low (45 kg of all dairy products in liquid milk equivalent), compared with the average of 220 kg in the industrial countries. Few developing countries have per capita consumption exceeding 150 kg (Argentina, Uruguay and some pastoral countries in the Sudano-Sahelian zone of Africa). Among the most populous countries, only Pakistan, at 153 kg per capita, has such a level. In South Asia, where milk and dairy products are preferred foods, India has only 64 kg and Bangladesh 14 kg. East Asia has only 10 kg.
http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/10/fmcg-companies-profit-from-rural.html
Here's a Bloomberg report on Karachi stocks rally after rate cut by SBP:
The Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index, which has climbed 0.6 percent this year, rose 2 percent to 12,092.32 at the 3:30 p.m. local time close, its highest since Aug. 2. Oil & Gas Development Co., the biggest fuel explorer, rose 3.7 percent to 141.03 rupees and Fauji Fertilizer Co., the biggest urea maker, rose 4.5 percent, to 178.06 rupees.
The State Bank of Pakistan reduced the discount rate to 12 percent from 13.5 percent, according to a statement in Karachi on Oct. 8. Three of five economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted a 1 percentage point cut, and the remainder forecast a 0.5 percent reduction.
Acting Governor Yaseen Anwar had room to act after Pakistan’s inflation rate dropped 2 percentage points in the past three months. A rate cut might support an economy that’s seen growing less than half the pace of fellow South Asian nations India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka this year.
‘Attractively Priced’
“With the level of the rate cut, today’s jump was expected,” said Habib ur Rahman, who oversees 7 billion rupees ($80 million) in stocks and bonds at Atlas Asset Management Ltd. in Karachi. “I can see the market continuing to gain till December because high-yielding stocks are attractively priced.”
Global funds sold $47.1 million worth of Pakistani stocks in July and August compared with net buying of $95.6 million last year, according to central bank data.
The Karachi Interbank Offered Rate, the benchmark borrowing rate for commercial banks, fell to 11.97 percent from 12.90 percent, according to Bloomberg data. The yields on the 12-month treasury-bill and the 10-year investment bond both declined by 1 percentage point to to 12.85 percent and 12 percent respectively, according to Arif Habib Ltd., in Karachi.
The rupee, which has shed 2 percent this year and dropped to a record low on Sept. 16, declined 0.3 percent to 87.47 to the U.S. dollar. The central bank conducted what it called a “calibrated intervention” last month to stabilize the currency.
Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani’s government is aiming to boost economic growth to 4.2 percent in the fiscal year ending June 30, from 2.4 percent in the previous year, one of the lowest expansions in the past decade, as the country struggled to cope with floods and militant attacks.
Floods in August forced more than one million people from their homes and damaged crops in parts of southern Pakistan still recovering from last year’s worst ever monsoon inundation that devastated the region. Terror attacks in the South Asian nation have killed at least 35,000 people since 2006, according to government estimates.
Stimulating Investment
The central bank decided to slash its policy rate for a second straight meeting because of a “high probability” of meeting the inflation goal for fiscal 2012 and to stimulate investment, according to central bank’s statement. The State Bank is targeting an average inflation of 12 percent in the year ending June 30, 2012.
Consumer prices rose 10.46 percent in September from a year earlier, after climbing 12.43 percent in July, according to the Federal Bureau of Statistics.
“If the rate cut is backed by other positive factors like an ease in inflation and a pickup in growth activity, we can see the index around 14,000 points by June 2012,” said Mohammad Shoaib, who oversees the equivalent of 32 billion rupees in Pakistani stocks and bonds at Al-Meezan Investment Management Ltd. in Karachi.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-10/pakistan-stocks-rally-after-bigger-than-forecast-rate-cut.html
riaz
Let us all accept that pakistan is doing better than india. pls enlighten on following :
how many companies have opened their back office in pakistan
How much is the fdi / fii investment?
How are the capital market infrastructure with regard ot trading and settlement.
Riaz
India has been and even now is silently working in increasing its own strength.
It has its own weakness, which it is aware of like population, poverty, corruption but the most important factor in india which is missing in pakistan is peace. Peace is the basic fact on which development happens. Why will an investor put his funds in a place where the place could be blown off by people who call themself as true muslims
India Pakistan
percentage
gdp growth 9.1 3.6
Capital formation 36.82 18.96
Billion
fdi /fii 34.57 2.38
There are more statistics available in google explorer but the moot point for the both the country is that both has to go long way in creating basic infrastructure.
Sure india has a better environment for investment compared to that what is perceived for pakistan.
satwa: "how many companies have opened their back office in pakistan"
Here are a couple of excepts from a piece written for Maleeha Lodhi's compendium "Pakistan Beyond The Crisis State" by Mudassar Mazhar Malik, an MIT (Sloan) and LSE (London) educated Pakistani economist and investment banker on his assessment of Pakistan today:
"Today, over 300 foreign multinationals have well established business operations in Pakistan. The US, European Union and Japan remain the largest three foreign direct investors with new inflows emanating from the Middle East and China."
"As a consequence of geo-political risks, Pakistan is not seen as a friendly investment destination. Despite this, Pakistan's investment to GDP ratio has averaged 17% for the last decade and is 17% today after reaching a peak of 23% in 2007. In many ways, Pakistan's corporate leaders and professionals as amongst the most "battle hardened" pool of managerial talent in the world with the ability to manage risk and still show growth under the most challenging conditions".
Here are some excerpts from an NPR interview of Siddhartha Deb, the author of "The Beautiful and The Damned":
......
DEB: Well, I was interested in the changes that were happening there. Obviously, it's a lot of people experiencing change in new ways, in some sense, and I had gotten the impression that there was a very triumphalist version of this change, which is that the country is doing very well.
There was even a slogan that was coined by one of the political parties. It was called India Shining. And I was going back. I was writing feature articles. I was a freelance writer. And I was somewhat skeptical of this. It was pretty obvious that at the upper levels people were much better off materially than they had been in the past.
But certainly large numbers or swaths of people seem to be untouched or mired in the same poverty, or sometimes even worse because they could now see this incredible contrast. So I wanted to examine that. I wanted to do that by checking, by looking at the new rich. I wanted to look at people who were in the middle, people who were middle class.
----------
DONVAN: Well, and the style in which the book is written still reads like a novel. It is full of color and texture and even sights and sounds and smells.
DEB: Thank you. That was very much the intention, to write something like a nonfiction novel, if that's possible. So the facts aren't made up, they're very scrupulously researched. I've tried to be as accurate as possible, but I wanted the texture, the flavor of a novel, of people in motion in some sense.
DONVAN: Can I say that the story that you've written reads to me as a very sad story?
DEB: That would be - that's a fairly, I think, reasonable, actually, interpretation. I think it's a sad story to me too, in many ways.
DONVAN: Even among those who feel that you describe - you describe an engineer named Chuck who is building a house. He had lived in the United States, and he's now building a house in the American model. He gives you a tour. He even uses American language. This is the open-plan kitchen, this is the master bedroom.
And yet you portray him as - his desires as being somewhat hollow, as though he's not a happy man himself.
DEB: Well, I mean, I think Chuck would see himself as a happy man, and I think that's reasonable. I've tried to allow people that space. But yes, I as a narrator come in, and I do sometimes question what some of my characters are saying.
So when someone like Chuck says, you know, he did say this, that there are these incredible contrasts in India, but that's okay, we're kind of one big happy family, and I question whether that's really the case, when, you know, you have at the very top end of the country, say you have, say, something like 66 billionaires.
And these numbers might be slightly old, but there are probably a few more billionaires since I last checked. But 66 billionaires who seem to have something like 30 percent of the country's wealth.
On the other end, you have like 800 million people, over 800 million people living on less than $2 a day. When you have a country where 40 percent of the children under the age of five suffer from malnutrition, it seems to me that these contrasts aren't really healthy. They're not just differences. They are really like living different worlds within the same country.
So yes, I actually come in as a narrator, and I question when, say, Chuck is a character, he sees his life as striving and successful. And I think that's reasonable, again, but I also question the fact that this house, this special zone in which the house is constructed, is being built on what is a demolished village, and I have very hard questions......
http://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?storyId=141213308
Stock and credit markets respond positively to rate cut by Pak central bank, according to The Express Tribune:
KARACHI: The bond and equity markets have reacted strongly to central bank’s surprise decision of slashing the interest rate to bring it on a par with pre-2008 crisis levels.
Karachi inter-bank offered rate (Kibor), the benchmark six-month lending rate, plummeted 95 basis points in a single day to a 26-month low of 11.96%, according to a Topline Securities research note.
Furthermore, yields of the actively traded one-year treasury bills and the benchmark 10-year Pakistan Investment Bonds fell by 75 basis points and 60 basis points to trade around 11.90-93% and 12.00-05%, respectively.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Saturday cut its benchmark discount rate from 13.5% to 12%.
The rate cut has also benefitted well the stock market on account of better earnings for leveraged companies and reduction in risk-free rate, adds the note.
The Karachi Stock Exchange’s benchmark 100-share index opened with a gap of approximately 350 points to skip over 12,000 points for the first time in two months on Monday.
Profits of leveraged companies to jump 2-8%
Heavily leveraged companies from the cement, textile and fertiliser sectors – whose loans are floating and linked with Kibor – will have to bear lower interest charges from January 2012 following quarterly loan re-pricing in December, says the note.
These companies will be the major beneficiaries of the cut in discount rate, the fee commercial banks pay to borrow money from the SBP. DG Khan Cement, Engro and Pakistan State Oil will be some of the major gainers as their annualised earnings will increase by 7.8%, 6.5% and 2.1%, respectively, adds the research note.
Overall, the rate cut will augment earnings growth by 0.5% in 2012.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/271244/chain-reaction-surprise-rate-cut-takes-kibor-to-26-month-low/
SIAM, India's auto-industry lobby, forecasts sales growth will slow to 2% to 4% for the year ending April, about one-tenth of what it was last year, according a report in the Wall Street Journal.
Rising prices are usually something auto makers welcome. Not in India.
As recently as April, some Indian auto makers were struggling to produce enough cars to meet demand as sales hit successive monthly highs.
But thanks to rising interest rates, buyers are hitting the brakes.
Across the industry, sales fell 16% in July compared with last year and 10% in August. September's decline was a relatively mild 1.4%, the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers reported Monday, though sales figures in the three ...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203499704576624454021313240.html
Here's more from Reuters:
NEW DELHI, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Car sales in India are expected to rise just 2 to 4 percent this fiscal year, an industry body said, cutting its forecast for the second time this year, as high interest rates and rising costs continue to hit demand in Asia's third-largest economy.
The growth forecast is down from the earlier estimate of 10 to 12 percent by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), and 16 to 18 percent before that. Car sales had jumped 30 percent in the fiscal year 2010/11 that ended March.
"If the government continues to raise fuel prices and interest rates continue to go up the demand for cars will remain subdued," S Sandilya, President, SIAM and Chairman, Eicher Motors , told reporters.
Indian car sales last grew in single digits in 2008/09, at 1.39 percent.
Demand for cars in the world's second-fastest growing auto market after China has also been dented in recent months by rising vehicle costs, with many first-time buyers plumbing for motorcycles or scooters.
Car sales fell 1.8 percent in September to 165,925 cars, data released by SIAM showed on Monday. Demand for cars shrunk in July for the first time in nearly three years.
However, sales of commercial vehicles, a key pointer to the country's economic activity, rose 18.05 percent to 70,634, while motorcycle sales rose 19.93 percent to 933,465 vehicles.
India's central bank has raised interest rates 12 times since March last year in an effort to battle stubbornly high inflation, a move that has hurt credit-based purchases and slowed economic growth.
The Indian car market, which saw a 10 percent decline in August, is driven by a burgeoning and aspirational middle class that mostly relies on bank loans for purchases.
Maruti Suzuki , India's largest car maker, and 54.2 percent owned by Japan's Suzuki Motor Corp , posted a 21 percent drop in September sales, but rival Tata Motors , which makes both commercial vehicles and cars, reported a 22 percent increase for the month.
"The way things have been going in the last few months, this is a realistic number. While there is some uptick in festive demand, it's nowhere close to what it was in the last two years," said Vineet Hetamasaria, auto analyst at Mumbai's PINC Research.
SIAM raised its growth forecast for commercial vehicles to 13 to 15 percent, from the earlier forecast of 12 to 14 percent.
"Demand for movement of goods still remains, because the economy is still growing at 7 to 8 percent," SIAM's Sandilya said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/10/india-autos-forecast-idUSL3E7LA1J320111010
Here's a Dawn report on Pakistan auto sales July-Sept 2011:
KARACHI: While sale of cars, two and three wheelers and light commercial vehicles remained brisk from July-September 2011, production by a leading tractor assembler remained suspended between second week of July 2011 and September 2011.
---------
Buying spree was witnessed for locally assembled cars thanks to huge arrival of home remittances, surging farm income, slight increase in car sales through bank financing, etc.
Even rising prices of locally produced cars and high cost of fuel (petroleum products and CNG) did not make any adverse impact on vehicle sales.
Pak-Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL) raised the prices by Rs14,000-30,000 followed by two to four per cent by Indus Motor Company (IMC).
Honda City also became costlier by Rs25,000 while Civic price was raised by Rs38,000.
Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) claimed rise in overall car sales to 38,065 units in July-September 2011 as compared to 30,030 units in the same month of last year.
Overall sale of costly cars (1,300cc and above) rose to 16,936 units as compared to 14,949 units.
Sale of Honda Civic, Honda City and Toyota Corolla stood higher at 1,710, 2,562 and 10,682 units as compared to 1,558, 2,274 and 10,371 units respectively. Suzuki Swift sales also surged to 1,826 units from 673 units.
In 1,000cc segment, overall car sales jumped to 7,343 in July-September 2011 from 5,679 units in the same period of last year in which sales of Suzuki Cultus and Suzuki Alto swelled to 3,710 and 3,633 units from 2,860 and 2,819 units respectively.
Increase in Suzuki Mehran sales to 8,415 units from 5,356 units made a positive impact on overall sales of 800cc and below 1,000cc cars which rose to 13,786 units from 9,402 units.
Sale of Daihatsu Cuore and Suzuki Mehran went up to 1,282 and 4,089 units as compared to 1,136 and 2,910 units.
A leading car assembler said he checked with many banks who intend to cut interest rates from Nov 1 after Central Bank`s decision to lower interest rates.
He said car financing by banks now enjoys 20 per cent share in overall car sales and this share may go up slightly after cut in interest rates.
From July onwards, the buyers especially on cash basis had resumed purchases and it was evident from sales trend in the first quarter of the current fiscal year.
Rising farm income also encouraged farmers and growers to purchase more new bikes, thus pushing up Honda bikes sales to 152,605 units in July-September 2011 from 126,701 units in the corresponding period of 2010.
Sale of Suzuki bikes also increased to 5,506 from 4,588 units while sale of Ravi and Habib bikes (Chinese two-wheelers) improved to 6,680 and 7,707 units from 5,971 and 4,053 units.
Qingqi and Sazgar three-wheeler sales reached 5,193 and 3,901 units from 2,787 and 2,976 units.
In pick-ups, a total of 4,586 units of Suzuki Ravi and 856 units of Toyota Hilux were sold in July-September 2011 as compared to 3,129 of Ravi and 285 units of Hilux in the same months during 2010.
In heavy vehicles, sales of only Master trucks rose to 110 units from 82 units while sales of Hino, Nissan and Isuzu trucks plunged to 231, 33 and 36 units from 422, 102 and 119 units.
In buses, Hino bus sales dropped to 56 units from 110 units and Isuzu bus sales also came down to 12 units from 23 units........
http://www.dawn.com/2011/10/11/tractor-heavy-vehicles-sale-dip.html
I think pak needs more generators first then IPADS OR TOYOTAS.
http://www.economist.com/node/21531495
Car sales are rising by double digits in Pakistan and declining by double digits in India:
SIAM, India's auto-industry lobby, forecasts sales growth will slow to 2% to 4% for the year ending April, about one-tenth of what it was last year, according a report in the Wall Street Journal.
Rising prices are usually something auto makers welcome. Not in India.
As recently as April, some Indian auto makers were struggling to produce enough cars to meet demand as sales hit successive monthly highs.
But thanks to rising interest rates, buyers are hitting the brakes.
Across the industry, sales fell 16% in July compared with last year and 10% in August. September's decline was a relatively mild 1.4%, the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers reported Monday, though sales figures in the three ...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203499704576624454021313240.html
Buying spree was witnessed for locally assembled cars thanks to huge arrival of home remittances, surging farm income, slight increase in car sales through bank financing, etc.
Even rising prices of locally produced cars and high cost of fuel (petroleum products and CNG) did not make any adverse impact on vehicle sales.
Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) claimed rise in overall car sales to 38,065 units in July-September 2011 as compared to 30,030 units in the same month of last year.
http://www.dawn.com/2011/10/11/tractor-heavy-vehicles-sale-dip.html
qdoba: "I think pak needs more generators first then IPADS OR TOYOTAS."
Yes, I agree that the energy crisis needs to be dealt with on a more urgent basis.
Some commentators have bragged about passenger car ownership figures in India vs Pakistan. The latest available World Bank data (2006-7 shows that they are pretty close: 9 per 1000 in Pakistan vs 10 per 1000 in India.
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.VEH.PCAR.P3
I believe it does include dangerous contraptions like jugaads often seen plying on Indian roads.
Here's an excerpt from "Sweet Smell of Success" originally published in The Caravan Magazine before it was censored, by Sidhartha Deb, the author of "The Beautiful and The Damned", on quality of private higher education in India:
A PHENOMENALLY WEALTHY INDIAN who excites hostility and suspicion is an unusual creature, a fish that has managed to muddy the waters it swims in. The glow of admiration lighting up the rich and the successful disperses before it reaches him, hinting that things have gone wrong somewhere. It suggests that beneath the sleek coating of luxury, deep
under the sheen of power, there is a failure barely sensed by the man who owns that failure along with his expensive accoutrements. This was Arindam Chaudhuri’s situation when I first met him in 2007. He had achieved great wealth and prominence, partly by projecting an image of himself as wealthy and prominent. Yet somewhere along the way he had also created the opposite effect, which—in spite of his best efforts—had given him a reputation as a fraud, scamster and Johnny-come-lately.
Once I became aware of Arindam Chaudhuri’s existence, I began to find him everywhere: in the magazines his media division published, flashing their bright colours and inane headlines from little newsstands made of bricks and plastic sheets; in buildings fronted by dark glass, behind which earnest young men imbibed Arindam’s ideas of leadership; and on the tiny screen during a flight from Delhi to Chicago, when the film I chose for viewing turned out to have been produced by him. It was a low-budget Bombay gangster film with a cast of unknown, modestly paid actors and actresses: was it an accident that the film was called Mithya? The word means falsehood, appearances, a lie—things I would have much opportunity to contemplate in my study of Arindam.
Every newspaper I came across carried a full-page advertisement for Arindam’s private business school, the Indian Institute of Planning and Management (IIPM), with Arindam’s photograph displayed prominently. It was the face of the new India, in closeup. His hair was swept back in a ponytail, dark and gleaming against a pale, smooth face, his designer glasses accentuating his youthfulness. He wore a blue suit, and his teeth were exposed in the kind of bright white smile I associate with American businessmen and evangelists. But instead of looking directly at the reader, as businessmen and evangelists do to assure people of their trustworthiness, Arindam gazed off at a distant horizon, as if pondering some elusive goal.
There were few details about the academic programme or admission requirements in these advertisements, but many small, inviting photographs of the Delhi campus: a swimming pool, a computer lab, a library, a snooker table, Indian men in suits, a blonde woman. A fireworks display of italics, exclamation marks and capital letters described the perks given to students: “free study tour to Europe etc. for twenty-one days,” “world placements,” “Free Laptops for all.” Stitching these disparate elements together was a slogan: “Dare to Think Beyond the IIMs”—referring to the elite, state-subsidised business schools, and managing to sound promising, admonishing and mysterious at the same time. The new India needed a new kind of university, and a new kind of attitude, and Arindam, said the ads, was the man who could teach you how to find it.
"I'VE SPOKEN TO THE BOSS about you,” Sutanu said. “He said, ‘Why does he want to meet me?’”
Sutanu ran the media division of Arindam’s company from a basement office where there was no cellphone reception, and it took many calls and text messages to get in touch with him. When I finally reached him, he sounded affable enough, suggesting that we have lunch in south Delhi. We met at Flames, an “Asian Resto-Bar” in Greater Kailash-II with a forlorn statue of the Buddha tucked away in the corner...
http://pastebin.com/UBtEqF1L
Riaz Bhai, let it go.
This has little to do with disease burden.
Do read isteve.com on this matter.
*Representative* S.Asian samples in Singapore (prior to the new wave of elite immigration ), Fiji, South Africa and the Carribean show that S.Asians are almost one standard deviation behind whites.
The disease burden hypothesis is one of many hypotheses that liberals come up with to pretend that the distribution of IQ is identical across races. This is simply untrue.
Riaz Bhai, do also read these posts about IIPM (the institute headed by Arindam Chaudhry).
http://indiauncut.blogspot.com/2005/10/question-of-principles.html
http://www.ojr.org/ojr/stories/051026glaser/
http://www.pajamasmedia.com/instapundit-archive/archives/026116.php
http://www.ravikiran.com/blog/classic/200510/an-outrage/
Much respect to Gaurav Sabnis!
I believe it does include dangerous contraptions like jugaads often seen plying on Indian roads.
Yup and have a look at Pakistan's answer to Indian Tata Nano...
The Habib Sitara
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=202_1227636384
I believe its a convertible :D
http://tribune.com.pk/story/277659/pakistan-emerges-as-second-best-performing-market-in-asia/
Pakistan emerges as second best performing market in Asia
Despite security concerns, tense relations with the US and economic slowdown, Pakistan’s stock market has managed to rank as the second best performing market in Asia after Indonesia in 2011 so far, according to a Topline Securities research note.
Corporate earnings and reduction in interest rates helped equities so far in 2011 amongst the Asian Emerging and Frontier markets tracked by MSCI, adds the note.
Resurgence of US crisis coupled with headwinds in eurozone saw huge selling in global equity markets as risk-averse offshore investors moved to safe heavens. The MSCI All Country World Index has slumped by 8% in 2011 till October 18 on concerns about the world economy and the lack of any credible solution to Europe’s debt issue, the reason also why most Asian Emerging and Frontier markets have posted negative returns so far in 2011.
Moreover, except the Indonesian market, all markets in MSCI Asian Emerging and Frontier markets are down 5% to 39% with India and China, the two leading markets falling by 26% and 24%, respectively.
Interestingly, Pakistan with a fall of 5% is so far the second best performing market amongst these 12 countries.
Due to fear of another recession, the benchmark MSCI Word Index is down 8%. Emerging and frontier market indices also followed by falling 18% and 25%, respectively
http://tribune.com.pk/story/277659/pakistan-emerges-as-second-best-performing-market-in-asia/
Here's Razib Khan of Brown Pundits on Washington Post's piece about "demographic dividend" in India:
"Amid population boom, India hopes for ‘demographic dividend’ but fears disaster. The article is OK, but I feel as usual it doesn’t do a good enough job highlighting the huge variation in fertility across India the nation-state. Tamil Nadu has the fertility of Northern Europe while Uttar Pradesh is like West Africa. Unfortunately the “demographic dividend” is going be driven by the most backward and unproductive regions of the nation on a per unit basis…."
http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/10/15/indias-demographic-dividend-and-despair/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/amid-population-boom-india-hopes-for-demographic-dividend-but-fears-disaster/2011/10/12/gIQA9I4nmL_story.html
Occasional and isolated but nonetheless tragic suicide cases like Raja Khan's in Pakistan get a lot of media coverage as they should. Meanwhile, over 200,000 farmer suicides in India have passed with little media attention in India.
Here's a Washington Post report on rising suicides in India:
NEW DELHI — Ram Babu’s last days were typical in India’s growing rash of suicides.
The poor farmer’s crop failed and he defaulted on the $6,000 loan he had taken to buy a tractor. The bank’s collectors hounded him, even hiring drummers to go round the village drawing attention to his shame.
“My father found it unbearable. He was an honorable man and he couldn’t take the humiliation. The next day he hanged himself from a tree on his farm,” his son Ram Gulam said Friday.
Babu’s suicide went unreported in local newspapers, just another statistic in a country where more than 15 people kill themselves every hour, according to a new government report.
The report released late Thursday said nearly 135,000 people killed themselves in the country of 1.2 billion last year, a 5.9 percent jump in the number of suicides over the past year.
The suicide rate increased to 11.4 per 100,000 people in 2010 from 10.9 the year before, according to the statistics from the National Crime Records Bureau.
Financial difficulties and debts led to most of the male suicides while women were driven to take their lives because of domestic pressures, including physical and mental abuse and demands for dowry.
A 2008 World Health Organization report ranked India 41st for its suicide rate, but because of its huge population it accounted for 20 percent of global suicides.
The largest numbers of suicides were reported from the southern Indian states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, where tens of thousands of impoverished farmers have killed themselves after suffering under insurmountable debts.
The loans — from banks and loan sharks — were often used to buy seeds and farm equipment, or to pay large dowries to get their daughters married. But a bad harvest could plunge the farmer over the edge.
Sociologists say the rapid rise in incomes in India’s booming economy has resulted in a surge in aspirations as well among the lower and middle classes, and the failure to attain material success can trigger young people to suicide.
“The support that traditionally large Indian families and village communities offered no longer exists in urban situations. Young men and women move to the cities and find they have no one to turn to for succor in times of distress,” said Abhilasha Kumari, a sociology professor in New Delhi.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/government-report-says-15-people-commit-suicide-every-hour-in-india/2011/10/28/gIQAVFGWOM_story.html
Here's WHO data on suicide rates in Asia:
Pakistan has the lowest estimated prevalence of less than 3 per 100,000, followed by Thailand at 7.3 per 100,000. Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Singapore have low to medium rates of between 9.9 and 13.1 per
100,000. Higher rates of above 15 per 100,000 are seen in China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Hong Kong SAR), and India and still higher rates of above 20 per 100,000 are seen in China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Sri Lanka.
http://www.who.int/mental_health/resources/suicide_prevention_asia_chapter1.pdf
Here are some of the findings of a recent paper by Durre-e-Nayab of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) titled "Estimating the Middle Class in Pakistan":
Depending on the definition applied, it is found that the size of the middle class ranges drastically in the country, as can be seen from Table 2. Applying the definitions having solely an economic rationale, we find the middle class to range from 60 per cent of the population (Table 2, Definition One) to being totally non-existent (Table 2, Definition Five). Translating it in number of people, using the population base of 187 million as it stands on mid-year 2011 (USCB, 2011 and UN, 2009), the size of the middle class ranges from a huge 112 million to no one. This variability, as stressed earlier, reflects the complexities and
arbitrariness associated with defining and measuring the middle class.
Among all the definitions given above, Definition Eight and Definition Thirteen, based on gradation of income and expenditure per person per day, respectively, are currently the most
extensively used measure employed to estimate the middle class (as also used by Chun (2010) and Bhandari (2010) among others)3. This definition too, however, suffers from the same drawback of relying solely on one criterion. As also pointed out by Eisenhauer (2008), Atkinson and Bourguignon (1982), Kolm (1977), Bourguignon and Chakravarty (2003) and Gilbert (2003), being a part of the middle class should be ascertained by a person’s socio-economic attributes holistically. Income is an important aspect but other qualities like level of health, wealth,
education and specialised knowledge are also significant factors for constituting a class. Technically speaking too, most of the definitions suffer from serious drawbacks. For instance, the ‘quintile approach’ can be useful in measuring or comparing income or expenditure growth but cannot be used as a method to estimate the middle class as the size cannot shrink or expand and by definition would permenantly remain at 60 percent. Any denomination of the median income should also be used with caution in low income countries like Pakistan. Taking 75 per cent of the median income might lead to the inclusion of people below the poverty line in countries with very low income levels. In the above-stated definitions and resulting estimates there are issues with the lower bounds
set for inclusion in the middle class. While some of the definitions (like Definition Three and Five) set the limit too high4, resulting in a very small middle class or in the absence of a middle class altogether, there are other definitions that set the limit too low, like those that set the lower
bound at $2 per person per day. Does the middle class begin where poverty ends? Ravallion (2010: 446) supports, “the premise that middle class living standards begin when poverty ends”.
This paper, however, supports the argument forwarded by Horrigan and Haugen (1988:5) when they posit, “to ensure that the lower endpoint of the middle class represents an income
significantly above the poverty line”. The middle class should, hence, include only those households that do not face the risk of experiencing poverty at all, and are not just those who
are outside the the realm of poverty at a particular time.
http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-71.pdf
Karachi's HDI is about 0.799, much higher than Pakistan's national human development index and comparable to European nations of Portugal and Poland, and higher than Malaysia's.
Here's a brief UNDP description of human dev in Pakistan:
According the Human Development Report 2010, Pakistan’s HDI value increased from 0.311 to 0.490 during 1980 to 2010, an increase of 58% or average annual increase of about 1.5% which ranked it 10 in terms of HDI improvement in comparison to the average progress of other countries. Pakistan’s life expectancy at birth increased by more than 9 years, mean years of schooling increased by about 3 years and expected years of schooling increased by almost 4 years. Pakistan’s GNI per capita increased by 92 per cent during the same period.
Pakistan’s 2010 HDI of 0.490 is below the average of 0.516 for countries in South Asia. It is also below the average of 0.592 for medium human development countries. From South Asia, Pakistan’s 2010 “HDI neighbours”, i.e. countries which are close in HDI rank and population size, are India and Bangladesh, which had HDIs ranked 119 and 129 respectively. Pakistan is also compared to the Islamic Republic of Iran, a high human development country.
http://undp.org.pk/about-pakistan.html
Here's a report on Benazir Income Support Program:
ISLAMABAD: The Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) has proved to be highly effective programme for poverty alleviation and women empowerment considering its efficiency, technology based operations and transparency; the programme ought to be replicated in the other countries of the world as well.
According to a press release, Michal Rutkowski, Director Human Development South Asian Region, World Bank, said this during a meeting with Federal Minister and Chairperson of BISP, Farzana Raja while heading a delegation here at BISP Secretariat Wednesday.
Rutkowski said that the World Bank is proud of working with organization like BISP and appreciates its performance and reliability. While taking special interest in vocational training scheme of BISP, he said that the corporate sector and foreign employers may also invest in this particular initiative.
He termed Waseela-e-Taleem initiative of BISP, instrumental in the promotion of education, as similar initiatives have been proved successful in the other countries as well.
Earlier, Farzana Raja presented details of various initiatives of BISP for uplifting the living standards of millions of poor families across Pakistan. She said that one million out of school children of these poor families will be enrolled in the schools under Waseela-e-Taleem.
She said that BISP has employed state of the art technology in all of its mechanisms to facilitate its beneficiary in a more efficient and transparent manner. Farzana Raja said that BISP is seeking cooperation from various public and private organizations of the world working in the social sector to continue its various initiatives aiming at poverty alleviation in an effective manner.
She added further that BISP needs support of the World Bank for marketing BISP in the world especially for replication of such experiences in the other countries.
http://www.onlinenews.com.pk/details.php?id=185387
Here's an excerpt from Dr. Ishrat Husain's comp of India-Pak economy:
Pakistan is one of the few developing countries that has achieved an average annual
growth rate of over 5 percent over the six decades. Consequently, the incidence of poverty has
declined from 40 percent to 24 percent. The salient features of Pakistan’s economic history are
summarized below:
• A country with 30 million people in 1947 that couldn’t feed itself and had to import all its
food requirements is not only able to fulfill the domestic needs of 170 million people at a
much higher per capita consumption level, but also exports wheat and rice .
• An average Pakistani earned about $ 1050 in 2009 compared to less than $ 100 in 1947.
In US current dollar terms the per capita income has expanded almost ten fold.
• Agriculture production has risen five times with cotton attaining a level of more than 12
million bales compared to 1 million bales in 1947. Pakistan has emerged as one of the
leading world exporter of textiles.
• Manufacturing production index is well over 13,000 with the base of 100 in 1947. Steel,
cement, automobiles, sugar, fertilizer, cloth and vegetable ghee, industrial chemicals,
refined petroleum and a variety of other products are manufactured for the domestic
market and in many cases for the world market too.
• Per capita electricity generation has reached 10,160 kwh compared to 100 in 1947.
Pakistan’s vast irrigation network of large storage reservoirs and dams, barrages, link
canals constructed during the last five decades has enabled the country to double the area
under cultivation to 22 million hectares. Tubewell irrigation provides almost one third of
additional water to supplement canal irrigation.
• The road and highway network in Pakistan spans 250,000 km-more than five times the
length inherited in 1947. Modern motorways and super highways and four lane national
highways link the entire country along with secondary and tertiary roads.
• Natural gas was discovered in the country in the 1950s and 32 billion cubic feet of
natural gas is generated, transmitted and distributed for industrial, commercial and
domestic consumption accounting for 50 percent of the country’s energy needs.
• Private consumption standards have kept pace with the rise in income. There are 52 road
vehicles for 1000 persons relative to only one vehicle for the same number of population
in 1947. Phone connections have reached 100 million from almost scratch. TV sets which
were non-existent adorn 62 out of every 1,000 houses.
http://www.iba.edu.pk/News/speechesarticles_drishrat/Indo_Pak_economies_compared.pdf
India will not reach its Millennium Development Goal on sanitation before 2047, while Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal will not achieve the target before 2028, according to a United Nations report released on the eve of World Toilet Day 2011.
The WaterAid report titled "Off-track, off-target: Why investment in water, sanitation and hygiene is not reaching those who need it most" says that 818 million Indians and 98 million Pakistanis lack access to toilets. It also reports that 148 million Indians and 18 million Pakistanis do not have adequate access to safe drinking water.
http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/11/india-pakistan-off-track-off-target-on.html
Indian rupee hit record low amidst high inflation and high twin deficits, according to Wall Street Journal:
The Indian rupee fell to a record low against the U.S. dollar Tuesday as high inflation and a gaping current-account deficit weighed on demand for the local unit, before a recovery in global risk appetite helped trim the greenback's gains.
The dollar was at INR52.30 late Tuesday, up from INR52.16 late Monday, after rising to as much as INR52.725 during the session, its highest ever. The dollar's previous high was INR52.1950 on March 3, 2009.
The pace of the rupee's fall caught most market watchers off guard, forcing firms with unhedged overseas debt to rush for cover, accelerating the fall.
Adding to this, exporters have been wary of locking into a dollar rate for their future revenue, when the dollar's rally may well have more steam.
"The rupee is being swept by a self-fulfilling squeeze--capital is being pulled from hot money markets in Asia, and the rupee is just far more vulnerable than other Asians with its trade deficit," said Sean Callow, a Sydney-based currency strategist at Westpac Bank.
But some argue that the rupee's slide could be on its last legs. UBS, for example, argues that the rupee's fall has less to do with local factors such as inflation and slowing economic growth in India, and more to do with re-rating the rupee to a basket of currencies that's more sensitive to the global economy. The Swiss house advises buying the rupee at this point, as a bet on a global cyclical rebound.
Rupee bulls got a boost when a federal government official told Dow Jones Newswires that the central bank was planning to offer a dollar liquidity window to oil importers. Under the planned window, oil importers would be able to pay for their greenback purchases by selling the central bank the so-called oil bonds, which are issued to them by the government in exchange for selling fuel products at below-market prices.
If this window comes into effect, it would take a key source of greenback demand out of the currency market, helping to ease the rush for the dollar, said the treasury head of a foreign bank.
In the sovereign debt market, Indian government bonds were under pressure on the growing view that the federal government would struggle to stick to its fiscal deficit target.
The benchmark 8.79% 2021 bond ended at INR99.64, from Monday's INR99.76.
Royal Bank of Scotland reckons India's fiscal deficit will overshoot its target of 4.6% of gross domestic product by at least one percentage point because of rising subsidies on food and fuel and dwindling tax revenue.
Traders say an overshoot of the fiscal deficit of that magnitude could push the benchmark bond yield beyond 9%.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111122-706954.html
Here's a critical analysis of Tom Friedman's "Flat World" on India:
In the first chapter of his bestseller on globalization, The World Is Flat, three-time Pulitzer Prize–winning foreign affairs columnist for The New York Times Thomas Friedman suggests that his repertoire of achievements also includes being heir to Christopher Columbus. According to Friedman, he has followed in the footsteps of the fifteenth-century icon by making an unexpected discovery regarding the shape of the world during an encounter with “people called Indians.”
Friedman’s Indians reside in India proper, of course, not in the Caribbean, and include among their ranks CEO Nandan Nilekani of Infosys Technologies Limited in Bangalore, where Friedman has come in the early twenty-first century to investigate phenomena such as outsourcing and to exult over the globalization-era instructions he receives at the KGA Golf Club downtown: “Aim at either Microsoft or IBM.” Nilekani unwittingly plants the flat-world seed in Friedman’s mind by commenting, in reference to technological advancements enabling other countries to challenge presumed American hegemony in certain business sectors: “Tom, the playing field is being leveled.”
The Columbus-like discovery process culminates with Friedman’s conversion of one of the components of Nilekani’s idiomatic expression into a more convenient synonym: “What Nandan is saying, I thought to myself, is that the playing field is being flattened… Flattened? Flattened? I rolled that word around in my head for a while and then, in the chemical way that these things happen, it just popped out: My God, he’s telling me the world is flat!”
No compelling justification is ever provided for how a war against deterrables will solve the problem of undeterrables who by definition cannot be deterred.
The viability of the new metaphor has already been called into question by Friedman’s assessment two pages prior to the flat-world discovery that the Infosys campus is in fact “a different world,” given that the rest of India is not characterized by things like a “massive resort-size swimming pool” and a “fabulous health club.” No attention is meanwhile paid to the possibility that a normal, round earth—on which all circumferential points are equidistant from the center—might more effectively convey the notion of the global network Friedman maintains is increasingly equalizing human opportunity.
An array of disclaimers and metaphorical qualifications begins to surface around page 536, such that it ultimately appears that the book might have been more appropriately titled The World Is Sometimes Indefinitely Maybe Partially Flat—But Don’t Worry, I Know It’s Not, or perhaps The World Is Flat, Except for the Part That Is Un-Flat and the Twilight Zone Where Half-Flat People Live. As for his announcement that “unlike Columbus, I didn’t stop with India,” Friedman intends this as an affirmation of his continued exploration of various parts of the globe and not as an admission of his continuing tendency to err—which he does first and foremost by incorrectly attributing the discovery that the earth is round to the geographically misguided Italian voyager.
Leaving aside for the moment the blunders that plague Friedman’s writing, the comparison with Columbus is actually quite apt in other ways, as well. For instance, both characters might be accused of transmitting a similar brand of hubris, nurtured by their respective societies, according to which “the Other” is permitted existence only via the discoverer-hero himself. While Columbus is credited with enabling preexisting populations on the American continent to enter the realm of true existence by reporting them to European civilization, Friedman assumes responsibility for the earth’s inhabitants in general without literally having to encounter them.
http://www.guernicamag.com/features/3284/fernandez_12_1_11/
India fares worst in terms of low birth weight and underweight children, and under-five infant mortality compared to Brazil, Russia and all South Asian neighbors, says BBC's Soutik Biswas:
Will the proposed law to provide cheap food to more than half of India's people eliminate hunger, the most shameful scourge of an aspiring superpower?
The jury is still out on how the $19bn (£12bn) scheme will work, as is the case with similar big-ticket welfare schemes launched by what many believe is an endemically weak and corrupt state.
But there is little doubt that India needs to fight malnutrition on a war footing, and the food security scheme may well be its last chance to redeem itself.
Many believe that it does not behove a country which never tires of gloating about its red hot economic growth to have millions of malnourished and starving people.
The facts on the ground are startling. India has the largest number of malnourished children in the world, a rate worse than the average in Africa.
Nearly half of India's children under three are malnourished. More than half of the tribes' children are underweight and stunted.
India fares worst in terms of low birth weight and underweight children, and under-five infant mortality compared to Brazil, Russia and all South Asian neighbours.
India also has the highest number of Vitamin A deficient children in the world: nearly 6% of the children suffer from eye problems related to the deficiency. Of the 37m people in the world who are blind, about 15m are from India. More than 320,000 children suffer from avoidable blindness.
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Then there are India's notoriously fickle public distribution system shops aimed at providing food security to people. Over 500m people are supposed to benefit through a gigantic distribution network of half a million fair-price shops supplying cheap food grains.
Here too, the results are mixed and contested. In many states, it has failed to make cheap food grains available to the poor. Theft of supplies, fraudulent beneficiaries and hoarding by the shop-owners is not uncommon.
Cart before horse?
So will the latest food security scheme aimed at providing subsidised food grains to 75% of the rural population and half of the urban households work?
There are many economists who wonder how India will cough up the funds to finance the scheme which will see the country's food subsidy bill climb to $19bn from $13bn. The government insists money will not be a problem.
There are also questions about how beneficiaries will be identified and targeted in a transparent manner in a country where there are different official estimates of the poorest of the poor - from 37% to 77% of the people, depending on whom you believe.
India's state-run cold storage system is shambolic, so where is the guarantee that some 65m tonnes of food grains procured from farmers for distribution for the scheme - up from 55m tonnes presently - will not rot before reaching the beneficiary? How can the food grains be distributed through the leaky public distribution system shops without reforming them?
So is India again putting the cart before the horse? Without reforming its laws and public institutions, welfare schemes with the best intentions run the risk of floundering.
For the scheme to work, the government will need to target beneficiaries properly and revamp the distribution system. The public distribution system, for example, could be made accountable by issuing smart cards to beneficiaries to eliminate bogus cards and fraudulent withdrawal.
If the food security scheme does not work, economists believe, India is doomed to remain a hungry republic. It is already one of the fast-growing economies with the hungriest people in the world. And it can get worse.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-16291300
According to The Fiber Report 2009/10, Indians consumed 4.18 million tons of cotton while Pakistanis consumed 2.558 million tons.
Assuming a population of 1.2 billion for India and 180 million for Pakistan, the per capita cotton consumption works out to 3.48 Kg in India and 14.2 Kg in Pakistan.
http://www.oerlikontextile.com/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-1763/
Here are excerpts from a Dawn report on World Bank's assessment of Pakistan's economy:
...Pakistan is South Asia’s second largest economy, representing about 15 per cent of regional GDP.
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The portion on Pakistan points out that the country’s economy firmed in the second half of 2011. Industrial production surged to grow at a robust 32.1pc annualised pace during the three months ending in October, after falling at 9.1 and 10.1pc rates during the first and second quarters, respectively.
Part of the strengthening in growth reflects base effects due to the widespread flooding that had hampered activity in the second half of 2010. Since the floods occurred in July and August 2010, GDP growth on a fiscal year basis (ending June-2011) slowed to 2.4pc.
The report notes that Pakistan’s weak growth outturns are also tied to “worsening security conditions, accompanied by greater political uncertainty and a breakdown in policy implementation”.
The report also notes that “infrastructure bottlenecks, including disruptions in power delivery,” remain widespread.
A notable bright spot has been a strengthening of exports, evident particularly in the first half of 2011, led by textiles that surged 39pc in the first half of the year.However, like India, Pakistan’s export volume growth saw a sharp fall-off in October.
Indeed, Pakistan’s export volumes fell to a minus 46pc rate in the three-months ending October.
Along with an upswing in worker remittances inflows, robust exports have supported Pakistan’s external positions and contributed to an improvement in the current account from a deficit of 0.9pc of GDP in 2010 to a surplus of close to 0.5pc of GDP in the 2011 calendar year.
The World Bank notes that monetary tightening in Pakistan brought about positive real lending rates in early 2011 as well, the first time since late 2009.
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The bank points out that for South Asian nations, including India and Pakistan, domestic crop conditions and price controls are more important determinants of domestic food price inflation.
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Regional monetary policy authorities face several challenges in reducing inflation.
More recently, currency devaluation has contributed to inflation as well. In Pakistan, monetary authorities have also been monetising the deficit, complicating the efficacy of other monetary policy efforts to reduce inflation.
A key factor working against monetary policy efforts is the overall stance of fiscal policy, which despite some consolidation, remains very loose.
Monetary authorities in Pakistan have responded to persistent price pressures by raising policy interest rates and/or introducing higher reserve requirements.
Lower revenue growth has contributed to larger fiscal deficits in Pakistan. Terms of trade losses are estimated at about 1.9pc of GDP for the region in aggregate. India and Pakistan saw negative impacts of close to 1.8pc of GDP – estimated January through September 2011 terms of trade impacts relative to 2010.
Remittance inflow to Pakistan rose by an estimated 25pc in 2011, partly in response to the widespread flooding in the second half of 2010.
International reserve positions in South Asia have generally improved since mid-2008. Latest readings of foreign currency holdings were equivalent to at least three-months of merchandise imports in Pakistan.
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A good crop year (2011-12) in much of South Asia and sustained high regional stocks are providing a buffer for grain prices and import demand in 2012....
http://www.dawn.com/2012/01/19/pakistans-economy-recovering-wb.html
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1322593305595/8287139-1326374900917/GEP_January_2012a_FullReport_FINAL.pdf
It is official: India has the world's most toxic air, according a news report in The Hindu:
In a study by Yale and Columbia Universities, India holds the very last rank among 132 nations in terms of air quality with regard to its effect on human health.
India scored a miniscule 3.73 out of a possible 100 points in the analysis, lagging far behind the next worst performer, Bangladesh, which scored 13.66. In fact, the entire South Asian region fares badly, with Nepal, Pakistan and China taking up the remaining spots in the bottom five of the rankings.
These rankings are part of a wider study to index the nations of the world in terms of their overall environmental performance. The Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy and Columbia's Center for International Earth Science Information Network have brought out the Environment Performance Index rankings every two years since 2006.
In the overall rankings — which takes 22 policy indicators into account — India fared minimally better, but still stuck in the last ten ranks along with environmental laggards such as Iraq, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. At the other end of the scale, the European nations of Switzerland, Latvia and Norway captured the top slots in the index.
India's performance over the last two years was relatively good in sectors such as forests, fisheries, biodiversity and climate change. However, in the case of water — both in terms of the ecosystem effects to water resources and the human health effects of water quality — the Indian performance is very poor.
The Index report was presented at the World Economic Forum currently taking place in Davos, where it's being pitched as a means to identify the leaders and the laggards on energy and environmental challenges prior to the iconic Rio+20 summit on sustainable development to be held in Brazil this June.
http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/article2837739.ece
http://epi.yale.edu/epi2012/rankings
India is the deadliest country for girl child, according to a report published by the Times of India:
NEW DELHI: It's official - India is the most dangerous place in the world to be a baby girl. Newly released data shows that an Indian girl child aged 1-5 years is 75% more likely to die than an Indian boy, making this the worst gender differential in child mortality for any country in the world.
Newly released United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs ( UN-DESA) data for 150 countries over 40 years shows that India and China are the only two countries in the world where female infant mortality is higher than male infant mortality in the 2000s. In China, there are 76 male infant deaths for every 100 female infant deaths compared with 122 male infant deaths for every 100 female infant deaths in the developing world as a whole.
The released data has found that India has a better infant mortality sex ratio than China, with 97 male infant deaths for every 100 female, but this is still not in tune with the global trend, or with its neighbours Sri Lanka (125) or Pakistan (120).
When it comes to the child mortality sex ratio, however, India is far and away the world's worst. In the 2000s, there were 56 male child deaths for every 100 female, compared with 111 in the developing world. This ratio has got progressively worse since the 1970s in India, even as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Egypt and Iraq improved.
The UN report is clear that high girl child mortality is explained by socio-cultural values. So strong is the biological advantage for girls in early childhood that higher mortality among girls should be seen as "a powerful warning that differential treatment or access to resources is putting girls at a disadvantage", the report says.
"Higher female mortality from age 1 onwards clearly indicated sustained discrimination," says P Arokiasamy, professor of development studies at Mumbai's International Institute for Population Studies, who has studied gender differentials in child mortality in India. "Such neglect and discrimination can be in three areas: food and nutrition, healthcare and emotional wellbeing. Of these, neglect of the healthcare of the girl child is the most direct determinant of mortality," says Arokisamy. Studies have shown that health-related neglect may involve waiting longer before taking a sick girl to a doctor than a sick boy, and is also reflected in lower rates of immunization for girls than boys.
Moreover, since the outrage over India's poor child sex ratio came out of census data for children aged 0-6 years, the UN data on child mortality indicates that a campaign against female foeticide alone is not a complete solution. "Pre-natal and post-natal discrimination are complementarily contributing to gender imbalance," agrees Dr Arokiasamy. While pre-natal discrimination in the form of sex-selective abortions is more common among better educated upper income households, post-natal discrimination or neglect is more common among poorer, less educated rural households, he adds.
http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-02-01/india/31012468_1_child-mortality-infant-mortality-infant-deaths
Here's Russian analyst Anatol Karlin on India's prospects and its comparison with China:
It is not a secret to longtime readers of this blog that I rate India’s prospects far more pessimistically than I do China’s. My main reason is I do not share the delusion that democracy is a panacea and that whatever advantage in this sphere India has is more than outweighed by China’s lead in any number of other areas ranging from infrastructure and fiscal sustainability to child malnutrition and corruption. However, one of the biggest and certainly most critical gaps is in educational attainment, which is the most important component of human capital – the key factor underlying all productivity increases and longterm economic growth. China’s literacy rate is 96%, whereas Indian literacy is still far from universal at just 74%.
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The big problem, until recently, was that there was no internationalized student testing data for either China or India. (There was data for cities like Hong Kong and Shanghai, but it was not very useful because they are hardly representative of China). An alternative approach was to compare national IQ’s, in which China usually scored 100-105 and India scored in the low 80′s. But this method has methodological flaws because the IQ tests aren’t consistent across countries. (This, incidentally, also makes this approach a punching bag for PC enforcers who can’t bear to entertain the possibility of differing IQ’s across national and ethnic groups).
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Many Indians like to see themselves as equal competitors to China, and are encouraged in their endeavour by gushing Western editorials and Tom Friedman drones who praise their few islands of programming prowess – in reality, much of which is actually pretty low-level stuff – and widespread knowledge of the English language (which makes India a good destination for call centers but not much else), while ignoring the various aspects of Indian life – the caste system, malnutrition, stupendously bad schools – that are holding them back. The low quality of Indians human capital reveals the “demographic dividend” that India is supposed to enjoy in the coming decades as the wild fantasies of what Sailer rightly calls ”Davos Man craziness at its craziest.” A large cohort of young people is worse than useless when most of them are functionally illiterate and innumerate; instead of fostering well-compensated jobs that drive productivity forwards, they will form reservoirs of poverty and potential instability.
Instead of buying into their own rhetoric of a “India shining”, Indians would be better served by focusing on the nitty gritty of bringing childhood malnutrition DOWN to Sub-Saharan African levels, achieving the life expectancy of late Maoist China, and moving up at least to the level of a Mexico or Moldova in numeracy and science skills. Because as long as India’s human capital remains at the bottom of the global league tables so will the prosperity of its citizens....
http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2012/02/04/china-superior-to-india/
Here are excerpts of an article by Dr. Ata-ur-Rehman published in Pakistan Herald:
On July 23, 2006, an article was published in the leading daily Indian newspaper Hindustan Times, titled “Pak threat to Indian science.” It was reported that Prof C N R Rao (chairman of the Indian prime minister’s Scientific Advisory Council), had made a detailed presentation to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh about the rapid strides that Pakistan was making in the higher education sector after the establishment of the Higher Education Commission in October 2002 and my appointment as its first chairman. The article began with the sentence “Pakistan may soon join China in giving India serious competition in science.”
Serious apprehensions were expressed before the Indian prime minister at the rapid progress being made by Pakistan in the higher education and science sectors, first under the ministry of science and technology after my appointment as the federal minister of science and technology of Pakistan in 2000, and later under the Higher Education Commission. It was stressed during the presentation to the Indian prime minister that if India did not take urgent measures to upgrade its own higher education sector, Pakistan would soon take the lead in key areas of higher education, science and technology.
Something remarkable happened in Pakistan during the short period from 2000 to 2008 that rang alarm bells in India. It also drew unmitigated praise from neutral international experts. Three independent and authoritative reports, praising the outstanding performance of the HEC, were published by the World Bank, Usaid and the British Council. Pakistan won several international awards for the revolutionary changes in the higher education sector brought about under the leadership of the writer. The Austrian government conferred its high civil award “Grosse Goldene Ehrenzeischen am Bande” (2007) on the writer for transforming the Higher Education sector in Pakistan. The TWAS (Academy of Sciences for the Developing World, Italy) Award for Institutional Development was conferred on the writer at the academy’s 11th general conference in October 2009.
Prof Michael Rode, the chairman of the United Nations Commission on Science, Technology and Development and presently heading a Network of European and Asian Universities (ASIA-UNINET), wrote: “The progress made was breathtaking and has put Pakistan ahead of comparable countries in numerous aspects. The United Nations Commission on Science and Technology has closely monitored the development in Pakistan in the past years, coming to the unanimous conclusion that (the) policy and programme is a ‘best-practice’ example for developing countries aiming at building their human resources and establishing an innovative, technology-based economy.”
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Pakistan was poised to make a major breakthrough in transitioning from a low value-added agricultural economy to a knowledge economy. Alas, corrupt politicians with forged degrees plotted to destroy this wonderful institution where all decisions were merit-based, a trait unacceptable to many in power. A government notification was issued on Nov 30, 2010, to fragment the HEC and distribute the pieces. At this point I intervened. It was on my appeal to it that the Supreme Court declared the fragmentation of the HEC to be unconstitutional. The development budget of the HEC has, however, been slashed by 50 percent and most development programmes in universities have come to a grinding halt.
The Indian government need not have worried. We Pakistanis, alas, know how to destroy our own institutions.
http://www.pakistanherald.com/Articles/Pak-threat-to-Indian-science-2904
Pak threat to Indian science
Hindustan Times
Pakistan may soon join China in giving India serious competition in science. “Science is a lucrative profession in Pakistan. It has tripled the salaries of its scientists in the last few years.” says Prof C.N.R. Rao, Chairman of the Prime Minister’s Scientific Advisory Council.
In a presentation to the Prime Minister, Rao has asked for a separate salary mechanism for scientists. The present pay structure, he says, is such that “no young technical person worth his salt would want to work for the Government or public sector”.
He adds, “You needn’t give scientists private sector salaries, but you could make their lives better, by say, giving them a free house.”
Giving his own example, he says, “I have been getting a secretary’s salary for the last 35 years. But I have earned enough through various awards.
But I can raise a voice for those who aren’t getting their due.” Last year, Rao won the prestigious Dan David Award, from which he created a scholarship fund. So far, he has donated Rs 50 lakh for scholarship purposes.
The crisis gripping Indian science seems to be hydra-headed. “None of our institutes of higher learning are comparable with Harvard or Berkeley,” points out Rao. The IITs, he says, need to improve their performance: a faculty of 350 produces only about 50 PhD scholars a year. “That’s one PhD per 5-6 faculty members,” says the anguished Professor.
Rao fears that India’s contribution to world science would plummet to 1-1.5 per cent if we don’t act fast. At present, India’s contribution is less than three per cent. China’s is 12 per cent.
“We should not be at the bottom of the pile. When I started off in the field of scientific research at 17-and-a-half, I had thought that India would go on to become a top science country. But now, 55 years later, only a few individuals have made it to the top grade,” he laments.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/News-Feed/NM13/Pak-threat-to-Indian-science/Article1-124925.aspx
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