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| Book Cover: PINSTECH Campus, Nilore, Pakistan |
Setting the Record Straight:
The standard Western and Indian narrative has us believe that A.Q. Khan stole the uranium enrichment technology and built the Pakistani atom bomb, and then proliferated it to Iran, Libya and North Korea. To put it perspective, Feroz Khan explains that it takes at least 500 scientists and 1300 engineers with relevant training and skills to have a nuclear weapons program, according to a 1968 UN study. In a piece titled "Laser Isotope Enrichment-a new dimension to the nth country problem?", Dr. Robert L. Bledsoe writes as follows: "a United Nations study conservatively estimates that at least 500 scientists and 1300 engineers are needed to develop and maintain warhead production facilities, and an additional 19,000 personnel (more than 5000 of them scientists and engineers) are required to produce delivery vehicles of the intermediate ballistic missile variety".
Book Launch:
Khan's book was launched in Silicon Valley at the Fremont Marriott yesterday, with about 100 invited guests, including this blogger, in attendance. The author was introduced by Ms. Sabahat Rafique, a prominent local Pakistani-American. The author, currently a lecturer at Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, spoke briefly about the extensive research he undertook to write the book. He was joined by Prof Rifaat Husain, visiting scholar at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation, to answer questions.
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| L to R: Sabahat Rafiq, Feroz Khan, Riaz Haq, Yasmeen Haq at "Eating Grass" Book Launch |
Human Capital Development:
"Eating grass", published by Stanford University Press, traces the origins of Pakistani nuclear program to the work of Dr. Rafi Mohammad Chaudhry in 1950s and of Dr. Ishrat Husain Usmani in 1960s, both of whom were graduates of Aligarh Muslim University. Dr. Chaudhry did his doctoral research in physics under the supervision of the famous British physicist Ernest Rutherford at Cambridge and Dr. Usmani got his Ph.D. in physics at Imperial College, University of London, with Nobel Laureate Professor P.M.S. Blackett as his adviser. Along with Pakistani Nobel Laureate Dr. Abdus Salam, Chaudhry and Usmani built laboratories and academic institutions and inspired generations of Pakistanis to study subjects in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) fields to produce the scientific and engineering talent for the young nation beginning in 1950s and 1960s.
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| Source: OECD Global Education Digest 2009 |
Darra Adam Khel cottage industry making copies of sophisticated firearms is a testament to the reverse engineering prowess in Pakistan. Faced with multiple layers of sanctions, Pakistanis have now developed industrial scale reverse engineering capabilities. The best example of it is Pakistan's cruise missile Babur which was derived from US Tomahawk cruise missile. Some of these Tomahawk missiles landed intact in Pakistani territory when Clinton ordered cruise missile attack on Bin Laden in August 1998 in response to USS Cole attack by Al Qaida.
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's Role:
The title of the book "Eating Grass" alludes to Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's famous quote "we will eat grass, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own (atom bomb). We have no other choice". Khan goes beyond the quote to highlight Bhutto's substantial role in promoting Pakistan's nuclear program in 1960s. After India's humiliating defeat at the hands of the Chinese in 1962 and the Chinese nuclear test in 1964, Bhutto realized that India, too, would follow suit with a bomb of its own. He started lobbying with President Ayub Khan to start the bomb effort as early as mid 1960s. Ayub and most of his cabinet dismissed the idea but Bhutto remained committed to it and started taking modest steps toward building the scientific capability for it. As part of this effort, Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) and Pakistan's Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology (PINSTECH) were established in 1960s under the leadership of Dr. I.H. Usmani. These were followed by the construction of Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP) in 1970s. These institutions became training grounds for thousands of engineers and scientists in Pakistan in the field of nuclear science and technology.
1971 India-Pakistan War:
It was Pakistan's dismemberment after a humiliating defeat in India-Pakistan war of 1971 and India's first successful nuclear test in 1974 that, according to Khan, strengthened Pakistanis' resolve to weaponize the country's nuclear program. This new resolve gave strong impetus to expanding research and development activities and covert acquisition of a range of components necessary to build indigenous capability to produce nuclear warheads and delivery mechanisms. This was done in the face of strict international controls mandated by NPT and MTCR to prevent proliferation of nuclear and missile technologies.
Parallel covert efforts started with the establishment of a uranium enrichment facility at Kahuta which was headed by A.Q. Khan. A.Q Khan, a graduate of Karachi University, had been working on uranium enrichment in Europe for many years. He had the knowledge and the experience. He also had a wide range of contacts he had developed over the years while working at URENCO in Europe which he used to establish a procurement network. A.Q. Khan succeeded in acquiring the components and building thousands of gas centrifuges to produce highly enriched uranium (HEU) well ahead of a similar plutonium (Pu) reprocessing program underway at PAEC.
The book explains that HEU from A.Q. Khan's Research Lab (KRL) was essential but alone was not enough to make a bomb. It was PAEC that did the R&D to metalize UF6 into bomb core, and designed and built trigger mechanism with specialized explosives, lenses and detonators. It also required lots of cold testing to test the bomb design before conducting hot tests.
May 1998 Nuclear Tests:
Pakistan finally decided to go ahead with its atomic weapons tests in response to India's tests in May, 1998. It took only two weeks for Pakistan to do so after the Indian tests. Pakistan's then-prime minister Nawaz Sharif ordered the tests in the face of intense international pressure, particularly from the US President Bill Clinton who made multiple phone calls to Sharif asking him to refrain from it.The tests were followed by severe international sanctions led by the United States against Pakistan.
Ballistic and Cruise Missiles:
In addition to the work on the bomb, both PAEC and KRL labs also pursued development of reliable delivery vehicles for nuclear warheads. While PAEC worked on solid fuel rockets based on Chinese M-11 design, KRL focused on liquid-fueled variety based North Korean Nodong, writes Khan in "Eating Grass". Khan says Pakistanis have also reverse engineered American Tomahawk cruise missile as part of their efforts to add stealth capability to hit targets deep inside India from air, land and sea.
Command and Control:
Khan goes into the efforts made by Pakistan under President Musharraf since 2000 to put in place robust security of its nuclear assets and sophisticated command and control structures. A separate strategic command has been established to operationalize its nuclear weapons capability. And it is continuing to develop with changing needs.
Response to Indo-US Nuclear Deal:
Khan says in the book that there are eight Indian reactors exempted by US-India nuclear deal from IAEA safeguards leaving India free to process and accumulate 500 Kg weapons-grade plutonium per year. In addition, India is rapidly expanding its HEU production for its nuclear submarine by adding thousands of centrifuges.
Pakistan has responded by increasing its plutonium production at its indigenously built Khushab reactor complex which is not covered by IAEA safeguards, according to Khan. KRL is also continuing to produce about 100 Kg per year HEU with a new generation of P-3 and P-4 centrifuges at much higher separation rate.
Damaging Episodes:
Khan does not gloss over the severe damage done to Pakistan by AQ Khan's proliferation network and concerns raised by a meeting of Pakistani nuclear scientists Sultan Bashiruddin Mehmood and Abdul Majeed with Osama Bin Laden. He discusses at length how AQ Khan turned his procurement network into a proliferation network for personal profit. Musharraf saw the AQ Khan's proliferation as the "most difficult thing to deal with". The author quotes Musharraf as saying, "(T)he public image of A.Q. Khan was that of a legend and father of the bomb. He certainly was a hero for his role and contribution to the nuclear program, but at the same time no other person brought so much harm to the nuclear program than him".
As to Mehmood and Majeed, Khan says that they designed Khushab reactors. Their expertise was in reactor design, not bomb-making, and they couldn't have helped Al Qaeda acquire a bomb even if they wanted to. Nonetheless, they reinforced international suspicions about Pakistan's primarily defensive nuclear efforts.
Criticism of the Book:
As expected, the main criticism of the book has come from Indian reviewers. In a 500-page book, Indian critics have singled out a one-line citation by the author that on December 16, 1971, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi stood before the Indian Parliament and, amid a thunderous standing ovation, stated that India had “avenged several centuries of Hindu humiliation at the hands of Mughal emperors and sultans”. Khan has cited his reference for it as follows: V. Longer, The Defence and Foreign Policy of India (New Delhi: Sterling Publishers, 1998), 205. Cited in Sattar, Pakistan's Foreign Policy 1947-2005, 119.
Summary:
Brig Feroz Khan's "Eating Grass" is an erudite work that offers the first authentic insider account of the making of the Pakistani bomb. It details a story of spectacular scientific and strategic achievement by a nation dismissed as a temporary "tent" and a "nissen hut" at birth by Viceroy Lord Mountbatten in 1947. That same "nissen hut" is now a nuclear power about which Brookings' Stephen Cohen has said as follows:
“One of the most important puzzles of India-Pakistan relations is not why the smaller Pakistan feels encircled and threatened, but why the larger India does. It would seem that India, seven times more populous than Pakistan and five times its size, and which defeated Pakistan in 1971, would feel more secure. This has not been the case and Pakistan remains deeply embedded in Indian thinking. There are historical, strategic, ideological, and domestic reasons why Pakistan remains the central obsession of much of the Indian strategic community, just as India remains Pakistan’s.”
Brig Feroz Khan concludes his book on a somber note by mentioning "massive corruption" and "stagflation" in the country he served. "Perhaps it never crossed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's mind that his words (eat grass...even go hungry) would become a self-fulfilling prophesy."
Here's a video of this blogger talking with Brig Firoz Khan, the author of "Eating Grass":
"Eating Grass-The Making of the Pakistani Bomb"-- Riaz Haq Talks With Author Brig Firoz Khan from WBT TV on Vimeo.
Related Links:
Haq's Musings
India's Indigenous Copies of Nukes and Missiles
India's Nuclear Bomb by George Perkovich
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
Cyberwars Across India, Pakistan and China
Pakistan's Defense Industry Going High-Tech
Pakistan's Space Capabilities
India-Pakistan Military Balance
Scientist Reveals Indian Nuke Test Fizzled
The Wisconsin Project
The Non-Proliferation Review Fall 1997
India, Pakistan Comparison 2010
Can India "Do a Lebanon" in Pakistan?
Global Firepower Comparison
Evaluation of Military Strengths--India vs. Pakistan
Only the Paranoid Survive
India Races Ahead in Space
21st Century High-Tech Warfare
World Military Spending
Indian Attempts to Scuttle F-16s For Pakistan
Attrition Rates For IAF and PAF
Mockery of National Sovereignty
26 comments:
"my contribution to 80386 program.!
Wow and I love you for that which was the first real man processor in my opinion. :)
AQ Khan is the system architect of the Pakistani bomb. A system architect is one who makes things happen, using a number of personnel working on hardware and software, QA people, test engineers and the like. In the end, it is the system architect's vision that the credit goes to. Yes, you give credit to all those who lent hand, but then again, those people have chosen to, and are destined to, do only one thing - lend a hand.
There is a lot wrong in the book, but you should have done your own research and then you would have been able to publish an "authentic" review of an unauthentic book.
I guess that only the Bay Area elite were invited!
Ras: "I guess that only the Bay Area elite were invited!"
I was probably the only exception to the "Bay Area elite" at the event.
Not many in the Military liked AQK or started to "disown" him after the house arrest. These people are the majority of the ones being interviewed in the book.
Very biased indeed !
Amazing how this review omitted the names of Mr. Munir Ahmad Khan--Chairman PAEC 1972-1991--who headed 20 labs the projects of the entire fuel cycle and the bomb program--each one the size of KRL, and his successor Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad along with Dr. Samar Mubarakmand who built up the NDC/NESCOM and the missile program even though their respective roles have been dealt with at length in the book.
Speaking of our energy crisis, let us do a recap of our nuclear program. You can correct me if I am wrong....
A) Electricity-generating Nuclear Facilities
Operating:
Karachi: 125 MWe (Canadian, IAEA)
Chasma 1: 300 MWe (Chinese, IAEA)
Chasma 2: 300 MWe (Chinese, IAEA)
Under construction:
Chasma 3: 300 MWe (Chinese, IAEA)
Chasma 4: 300 MWe (Chinese, IAEA)
Indigenous electricity-producing reactors: None
B)Non-electricity generating Nuclear Facilities
Operating:
KRL: HEU centrifugal production (Indigenous, non-IAEA)
Khushab 1: 15 MWe (Indigenous, non-IAEA)
Khushab 2: 15 MWe (Indigenous, non-IAEA)
Under construction:
Khushab 3: 15 MWe (Indigenous, non-IAEA)
Khushab 4: 15 MWe Indigenous, non-IAEA)
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SUMMARY: We don't have a SINGLE electricity-producing reactor that was made locally and isn't under IAEA safeguards. Not even one.
And these 300MWe (CNP-300) that our BFF China has so generously grandfathered past the NSG are actually circa 1950s Westinghouse PWR designs.
See "Qinshan-I" at http://alturl.com/s5xp8
The only reason China built these for us is because they STOPPED building them in China 10 years ago because they were completely obsolete in terms of efficiency, cost, safety and reliability.
The fact that we need China to build a low-power 300 MW reactor with a obsolete 1950s design SHOULD TELL US that we do not have the capacity to build anything beyond the rudimentary 15MWe university-level PHWR plants we have at Khushab.
So all these dreams of "indigenous" production of 8000MWe is just fantasy.
The only way we will EVER get to 8000MWe is (a) if China builds lots of reactors for us by ignoring the NSG, or, (b) if the NSG gives us a waiver so that we can buy (or borrow) the lastest, more efficient and most safe technologies from all suppliers.
With one of these two things happening, we can FORGET about Nuclear electricity. Yes, we will have plenty of HEU and WGP bombs, but we won't have a lot of nuclear-generated electricity.
And, as I mentioned elsewhere, we will just be watching from the sidelines as the whole world helps Bangladesh march forward towards its goal of 10,000 MWe from Nuclear Power by 2030.
Is it not ironic that Bangladesh will wind up having more Nuclear Electricity that we do, even though we were the ones with the early Nuclear Program and the alphabet soup of agencies?
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PS: For the record, we should note that the Indians are already building 700MWe PHWRs and even 500MWe Complex FBRs (non-IAEA) by themselves right now. They are relying on foreigners only for the latest 1,000-1,600 MWe designs (VVER-1200, EPWR-1200, AP-1500 etc).
Here's an ET story on Russian book author at Karachi Literature Festival:
KARACHI: VY Belokrenitsky says the country has come a long way since Partition
Many intellectuals believe that internal problems and geopolitical upheavals have taken Pakistan to the brink. But according to Russian scholar VY Belokrenitsky, who has spent decades studying its history, the country remains as strong as any other.
“If you look at all that has happened in the past, Pakistan’s is a success story,” he said during the launch of the book ‘A Political History of Pakistan: 1947 to 2007’ on day two of the fourth Karachi Literature Festival on February 16. He has co-authored the book with compatriot VN Moskalenko.
Belokrenitsky said that at the time of Partition, Pakistan was made up of areas which were less developed and faced problems. “Since then, many parts have urbanised and the population has grown manifold. It has become a vibrant society.”
The book has been divided into seven parts which trace the country’s history from the pre-partition era to the tumultuous end of General (retd) Pervez Musharraf’s government.
Belokrenitsky said the book has been written from the Russian perspective, with a particular emphasis on the relationship between the two countries. However, it also deals with prominent political developments.
“We have discussed matters related to the upper level of politics. There is something going on underneath all that as well and not many people know about that. It needs to be studied more.”
He said that years 2013 and 2014 can be a turning point for Pakistan as foreign troops are expected to exit Afghanistan. Columnist Humayun Gauhar also spoke at the event.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/508270/russian-scholar-labels-pakistan-a-success-story/
Here's an excerpt of a report on the impact of science and technology on developed nations:
Technical advance -- according to Eric Hobsbawm's The Age of Extremes -- had three significant impacts. First, it transformed everyday life in the affluent world: before 1945 most families in the "developed world" would not have had a refrigerator, a television, vinyl records, tape cassettes, transistor radios, digital watches, pocket calculators, video equipment or general access to the birth control pill. Second, disproportionately more money was now spent on research and development (R&D) than ever before, thus bolstering the dominance of the wealthy regions of the world over the poor. By the 1970s the affluent countries had over 1000 scientists and engineers for every million people in population while Pakistan averaged around 60 and Kenya around 30. Third, and most importantly for the period after the 1970s, the new technologies were capital-intensive and eventually labour-replacing: machines would build automobiles, computers would manage trains, and money would be deposited, invested and withdrawn without the intervention of tellers. The significance of technological progress was that employees in the rich countries -- other than scientists and engineers -- would eventually become more crucial to the success of the economy as consumers rather than as producers.
Technology's great leap forward -- and our deification of it -- continues unabated: it is now enabling some corporations to "in-source" production. Historically, technology facilitated companies' abilities, especially those from the United States, to "out-source" production, though not necessarily co-ordination, to other parts of the world thus substantially reducing the costs of labour. Today, because of computerization and other factors, some companies are choosing to return some of their manufacturing processes back to the United States. Tyler Cowen notes in the May/June 2012 issue of The American Interest that "in a manufacturing survey from November 2011, almost one-fifth of North American manufacturers claimed to have brought production back from a 'low-cost' country to North America." While it would be understandable for workers to stand up and cheer at the thought of companies returning to their country, their elation would be short-lived. Artificial intelligence and computing power are taking over manufacturing, thus transforming factories into quiet, empty spaces whose only sound is the hum of a machine.
http://rabble.ca/columnists/2013/02/economic-development-and-technologys-great-leap-forward
^^RH Quotes Someone: "By the 1970s the affluent countries had over 1000 scientists and engineers for every million people in population while Pakistan averaged around 60 and Kenya around 30. "
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Do you have the current figures? How has the situation changed since the 1970s?
How many "scientists and engineers per million people" do we have now? How does this compare to equivalent countries like Kenya & Bangladesh? How does it compare to the West (US/EU)?
HWJ: "Do you have the current figures? How has the situation changed since the 1970s? How many "scientists and engineers per million people" do we have now?"
I don't have the exact data on the number of Pakistani engineers and scientists per million today but my guess is that it's several times higher now.
A good indicator is the work of Barro & Lee. It shows that the percentage of Pakistanis who have completed tertiary education has more than doubled in the last 20 years, growing from 1.7% in 1990 to 3.9% in 2010.
http://www.riazhaq.com/2012/05/educational-attainment-in-india.html
Here's a news report about Obama's nominee for US Defense Secretary saying India has been "financing problems" for Pakistan in Afghanistan:
Secretary of defense nominee Chuck Hagel suggested in a previously unreleased 2011 speech that India has “for many years” sponsored terrorist activities against Pakistan in Afghanistan.
“India has over the years financed problems for Pakistan” in Afghanistan, Hagel said during a 2011 address regarding Afghanistan at Oklahoma’s Cameron University, according to video of the speech obtained by the Free Beacon.
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Hagel appears to accuse India of fueling tensions with Pakistan, claiming it is using Afghanistan “as a second front” against Pakistan.
“India for some time has always used Afghanistan as a second front, and India has over the years financed problems for Pakistan on that side of the border,” Hagel says in the speech. “And you can carry that into many dimensions, the point being [that] the tense, fragmented relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been there for many, many years.”
http://freebeacon.com/chuck-hagels-indian-problem/
http://youtu.be/WDNhgeT3a9I
^^RH: "A good indicator is the work of Barro & Lee. It shows that the percentage of Pakistanis who have completed tertiary education has more than doubled in the last 20 years, growing from 1.7% in 1990 to 3.9% in 2010."
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http://alturl.com/pcitv
QUOTE: "A recent public opinion poll revealed that the top-most research priority areas identified by Pakistanis included ...Urdu literature, Islamic studies, Arabic......"
Also see: http://alturl.com/5vakn
UK paper now says Pakistan's Khan is father of North Korea's rogue bomb....
http://alturl.com/nih2j
Here's PakistanToday on German assistance for vocational training in Pakistan:
The German Consulate in Karachi is going to initiate the “Dual Training” system which is an internationally recognised concept related to vocational training and based on German skills of development.
Under the Germany-Pakistan Training Initiative (GPATI), this scheme would now be modified and developed into an appropriate model of cooperative training in Pakistan.
The training was demand-driven and focused on the development of an employable and highly skilled workforce. In collaboration with employers, such as BASF, Dewan Motors/BMW, DHL, Linde, Lufthansa Cargo, Merck, METRO, Schenker, Shanawaz/Daimler and Siemens and Vocational Training Institutes (VTIs) such as AMANTECH and iACT, this pilot scheme would now be implemented in Karachi. The VTIs would develop programmes according to the need of the employees and the employers would ensure the provision of technical/practical training under normal work conditions.
The Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, a federal enterprise, supported the German government in achieving its objectives in the field of international cooperation for sustainable development around the globe. Along with the European Union (EU) and the Embassy of Netherlands, the German Ministry of Economic Development and Technical Cooperation was funding an ambitious TVET Reform Support Programme in Pakistan and had commissioned the GIZ to assist the Government of Pakistan in the implementation thereof. Programme partners included the National Vocational and Technical Training Commission (NAVTTC), the Technical and Vocational Training Authorities (TEVTAs) in provinces and regions, private sector organisations and a large number of other stakeholders.
A key theme of the reform programme was to give employers and industry/training experts of the business economy a central role in all aspects of TVET planning and policy development, quality assurance, monitoring and delivery.
GPATI united the underlying principles of the reform and was therefore highly significant as it could give valuable input into the implementation of the overall TVET sector reform. Once the pilot phase of GPATI was successful, the long term objective was to scale up this scheme in 2014 under the TVET Reform Support Programme by including other national and multi-national companies and reaching out into other parts of Pakistan.
The first project committee meeting of GPATI took place on February 26th this year. Besides presenting the outline of GPATI activities for the current year, the participating companies, training institutes and GIZ signed a Letter of Intent. The event was chaired by Consul General of the Consulate General of the Federal Republic of Germany Dr Tilo Klinner and GIZ Principal Education Advisor Dr Julie Reviere.
The idea of the project was to make use of the presence and commitment of large German companies to develop a workable approach to cooperative training (modeled after the German dual training approach). The success of the project would also demonstrate that TVET was intrinsically driven and delivered by industry and had the chance to produce better results in skills development in terms of both quality and relevance.
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The training was planned to commence in the first quarter of the current year in the following occupational groups: General electric (incl. motor winding), general mechanics (including bench fitting and machining), electronics, process controlling, pharmaceutical technician, motor vehicle service mechanic, customer service, supply chain, sales and operations. All courses would be complemented by “Life Skills”, “Computer Literacy” and “English Language” learning modules.
http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013/02/26/city/karachi/germany-to-initiate-vocational-training-programme/
Here's a Hindustan Times report on failure of US-India strategic alignment:
A lack of strategic vision in the military alignment between India and the US is likely to ensure that New Delhi fails to emerge as Washington's key security ally in the Indo-Pacific region, a former Chinese diplomat to India has said.
Mao Siwei, who served as the Consul General
of China in Kolkata in the late 2000s, quoting a report indicated that strategic military ties between the US and India failed to evolve as expected after they signed the civil nuclear deal.
According to a "report of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, US-India Military Engagement, authored by an insider at the US Department of Defence, the current situation of the US-India military relations is far from what the US side expects. The report said the US and India lacked a clearly defined strategic vision to focus their military engagement," Mao said at a recent conference.
The report said the US and India lacked a "clearly defined strategic vision to focus their military engagement."
"The concerns of the Indian side about jeopardising strategic autonomy, along with personnel and budgetary limitations, have led to a further stymieing of deeper military contact," Mao said.
As a result, he said India was not likely to emerge as a key provider of security within the Indo-Pacific region any time in the near to midterm future.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/China/Indo-US-strategic-pairing-has-failed-Chinese-report/Article1-1017952.aspx
Here's an Al-Arabia Op Ed by Mansoor Jaafar on Pakistan transferring control of Gwadar port to China:
At last, Pakistan finally took the gutsy decision of handing over the strategically vital Gwadar port to China, ignoring the raised eyebrows from the U.S., India, several western and Gulf countries including Iran.
Located at the top of Arabian sea and mouth of Gulf near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Gwadar port is at the apex of busy trading and oil shipping route and surrounded by a region that houses around two-thirds of the world's oil reserves. Besides Pakistan and China, its natural beneficiaries will be the landlocked, but energy-rich, Central Asian Republics and Afghanistan, for whom it is the nearest warm-water sea port.
The project of world-class sea port that could monitor and share bulk of world’s oil trade has always been a temptation for entire world; like the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which has enabled its controller Iran to see eyeball to eyeball with the mighty super power, the U.S. So, Gwadar always remained a prized object inviting all the mighty countries of the world to win it.
Before creation of Pakistan, Gwadar was gifted to Sultanate of Oman by its controller, Khan of Kalat (present day district in resources rich Baluchistan province), as part of dowry to his daughter when she married prince of Muscat. Due to its strategic importance, India made several attempts to purchase it, all of which were foiled by Pakistan, and finally purchased it back from Oman in 1958.
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Tagged with all those multi-billion dollar profit options, Gwadar port will now being operated by China, against a vehement resistance by the U.S. Obviously, controlling the huge unfathomable resources of central Asia is perhaps one of the major objectives of the long and the costliest ever military campaign in Afghanistan. Despite all the lip service, none of the western countries has ever been willing to give any substantial help to Pakistan which could enable this nuclear power grow into a strong economic regional power.
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China’s 60 percent oil comes from Gulf by ships traveling over 16,000 kilometers in two to three months, confronting pirates, bad weather, political rivals and other risks up to its only commercial port, Shanghai. Gwadar will reduce the distance to mere 2500 kilometers and also serve round the year.
Besides China, Gwadar will be a much cheaper alternative to the traders of Europe, Japan, the Far East, and Central Asia, who could use the under-construction airport to air-lift their good from here, saving over half of the costs and time.
Regional politics
But from the phase of construction to operating, China has given up two subsidiary projects which were part of original Gwadar port. Beijing refused to build the oil refinery at Gwadar, and to review the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline through its economic experts. Nevertheless, Pakistan made “significant progress” this year in shape of commissioning IP gas pipeline and Gwadar port projects despite world's sanctions on Iran.
How will the U.S. respond? It is the key question on which the regional politics in near future will rest. Both these decisions are being termed as historic and a feather in the cap of otherwise the ever-notorious president of Pakistan, Asif Ali Zardari who is also practically controlling the affairs of the ruling PPP. He made those toughest decisions at the tail-end of his party’s five-year rule, leaving the consequences to be faced by the next government.
http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2013/02/27/268558.html
Here's an excerpt of a Dawn report on Pakistan's university education:
According to the OECD’s 2009 Global Education Digest, 6.3 per cent of Pakistanis were university graduates as of 2007. The government plans to increase this rate to 10 per cent by 2015 and 15 per cent by 2020. But the key challenges are readiness for growth of the educational infrastructure and support from public and private sector.
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According to 2008 statistics, Pakistan produces about 445,000 university graduates and 10,000 computer science graduates per year. Pakistan Telecom Authority indicates that as of 2008 there are nearly 22 million internet users and over 80 million mobile phone subscribers. A combination of all these educational and technological factors gives Pakistan great leverage to progress towards targeted curriculum development and dissemination through e-learning..
http://dawn.com/2011/02/28/towards-e-learning/
Here's a Daily Times report on PAEC's KINPOE graduation:
KARACHI: Nuclear power will continue to play its due role in meeting energy demand all over the world because of its technical and economic merits.
This was stated by Strategic Plans Division (SPD) Director General Lt Gen (r) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai while addressing the 12th convocation ceremony of Karachi Institute of Power Engineering (KINPOE), as chief guest where 65 graduates of the MS (Nuclear Power Engineering) were conferred degrees by Pakistan Institute of Engineering and Applied Sciences (PIEAS).
He emphasised that the use of science and technology for achieving better living standards and general comfort for the masses, is not an easy task by any means.
Kidwai said that Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) is serving the country and its people in many ways. It also bears the ultimate responsibility for the implementation of nuclear power programme of the country.
The commission’s power generation programme remains one of its most important commitments. This objective cannot be achieved by the procurement of equipment and hardware alone. It is critically dependent upon the availability of sufficient number of personnel having the necessary qualification and competence, he added.
He appreciated the efforts of the faculty and staff of KINPOE in promoting education and training in nuclear technology and added that technical education of high quality is only weapon to combat the future challenges.
In his welcome address, PAEC Chairman Dr Ansar Parvez said that education and manpower training in the field of nuclear technology has always been a prime consideration within PAEC, in the field where the doors of the outside world are no longer open for us.
Self-reliance in the training and education is not just important for us but it is absolutely essential.
Earlier, in his introductory remarks KINPOE Director Dr Zafar Mahmood said that KINPOE is a part of an organisation which strongly believes that nations deficient in technological development cannot survive in this world.
He advised the graduating class to continue hard work and pursuit of knowledge with greater zeal and contribute more enthusiastically for nation building.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2013\03\02\story_2-3-2013_pg12_13
Here's an Ottawa Citizen news story on Pak nuclear arsenal:
The Congressional Research Service (CRS), an independent research wing of the US Congress, figures that Pakistan has between 90 to 110 nuclear warheads.
“Islamabad is producing fissile material, adding to related production facilities, and deploying additional delivery vehicles. These steps could enable Pakistan to undertake both quantitative and qualitative improvements to its nuclear arsenal,” the recently released CRS report noted.
India currently has approximately 60-80 nuclear weapons, it added.
“Whether and to what extent Pakistan’s current expansion of its nuclear weapons-related facilities is a response to the 2008 US-India nuclear cooperation agreement is unclear. Islamabad does not have a public, detailed nuclear doctrine, but its ‘minimum credible deterrent’ is widely regarded as designed to dissuade India from taking military action against Pakistan,” the report noted.
http://blogs.ottawacitizen.com/2013/03/10/pakistan-expands-nuclear-weapons-arsenal/
Here's a report on China supplying 1000 MW Chashma 3 nuclear power plant:
China confirmed this week it will sell a new 1,000-megawatt nuclear reactor to Pakistan that the United States says would violate Beijing’s obligations under a nuclear supplier control group.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei was asked Monday about a report in the Free Beacon March 22 that first disclosed the secret agreement for the reactor reached last month in Beijing between the China National Nuclear Corp. and the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission.
“China has noted the relevant report,” Hong told reporters in Beijing.
Normally, Chinese government spokesmen deny such reports and label them “groundless” as a way to avoid comment. The spokesman’s use of the phrase “noted the relevant report” is unusual and a tacit admission the report is accurate.
U.S. intelligence and diplomatic officials privately said the agreement was reached in Beijing during a visit by a high-level Pakistani delegation of nuclear industry officials from Feb. 15 to 18.
The Chinese at the meeting urged Pakistan to keep the deal secret to avoid expected international opposition by states that say the sale violates China’s commitment to the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a 46-member association aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons.
China agreed in 2004 not to sell additional reactors to Pakistan’s Chashma nuclear facility beyond the two reactors that began operating in 2000 and 2011.
However, Hong denied the sale violates the voluntary NSG guidelines.
“The cooperation between China and Pakistan does not violate relevant principles of the Nuclear Suppliers Group,” he said. “In recent years, China and Pakistan do indeed carry out some joint projects related to civilian use of nuclear energy. These projects are for peaceful purpose only, in compliance with the international obligations shared by both countries, and they are subject to guarantee and monitor by international atomic energy organization.”
However, U.S. intelligence officials said the China National Nuclear Corp. (CNNC) is Beijing’s main nuclear weapons producer and is working to modernize Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal in addition to the civilian reactor construction at Chashma.
China also is working to develop Pakistan’s nuclear fuel reprocessing capabilities, the officials said....
http://freebeacon.com/concerns-proliferating/
Here are bits of info on Pakistan's nuclear fusion effort:
Realizing the importance of fusion and the worldwide effort in this regard, Pakistan has launched a National Tokamak Fusion Program to develop human resource and capacity building. Under this program, the Government of Pakistan plans to install a small tokamak (like HT-6M of Hefei , China ) along with various accessories and diagnostics so as to acquire the basic scientific knowledge and the technical know-how of the fusion technology.
http://www.iter.org/newsline/15/1025
National Tokamak Fusion Program
Glass Vessel Spherical Tokamak
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:0_QodMBYAcsJ:fec2012.iaea.org/contributionDisplay.py/pdf?contribId%3D621%26sessionId%3D6%26confId%3D10+glass+spherical+tokamak+Pakistan&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEEShTNKR_2W80Fq6ckIMTlP9mY2KBLe4nkL4EG3-ShatSsDQo16Ei4ehHeXMfSTQN9SkB4rW6w8viqfz2twxYMim17vjFW3-JD8QWx7E0ROpk8o3oMzmZ2ED21RXrfH-6YqL0ZYtx&sig=AHIEtbS4XAEfwaRkwA-bAKvaUXaB2zy4vg
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:fmdMpzgOMLAJ:home.clara.net/balshaw/tokamak/table-of-spherical-tokamaks.pdf+tokamak+pakistan&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESjK6UJ9BptGtUNhDi2PnYGxDTBqlGwbQ2wXKRj8JvTnI3uMt7nLnbCip76bIPOictZl2-TEJ_4MeEW3fpZspqdpsIVPxlvQ5e3BZxhZ1QOPNuXAfRIJ3x2UMZx7L4TWn4_szeTo&sig=AHIEtbSgWaE6MzVnEDMkSSRCeljNMl3cQg
Here's a PakistanToday story on HuT's campaign against voting and democracy:
The banned outfit Hizbut Tahrir (HT) has started its campaign across the country to convince people not to participate in elections and join hands with the outlawed organisation for the unification of Muslim world as a single state under the leadership of Sheikh Ata Abu Rishta.
The campaign has been started in almost all parts of the country and the HT activists have started holding public gatherings and corner meetings to convince people on a point that democracy was against Islam.
The intelligence agencies have started operation against the HT and arrested two of its activists from outside a mosque for distributing leaflets among the worshipers and preaching them not to participate in elections.
Through the leaflet, the banned outfit invited people to join hands with them to abolish democracy from Pakistan and establish caliphate.
The leaflet reads further, “Muslims have not been stung merely twice, but countless times by the current system in Pakistan. Each time new faces come through coup or election, the people curse the old faces. However, only after a while, the new faces appear even uglier and more despised than the older faces. The current system is incapable of looking after the affairs of the people and securing the rights that Allah guaranteed humankind, regardless of their race, language, gender or religion.”
It reads further, “Pakistan's current system is a continuation of the British rule occupation that abolished Islamic rule in the Indian subcontinent in the first place. Even though the Muslims shed their pure blood to establish Pakistan in the name of Islam, it was the British Parliament that created Pakistan’s initial legislation under its Indian Independence Act of 1947.”
“It is democracy, designed by and inherited from the colonialist kufr that separates our ummah from Islam and its ruling system of khilafah, whether in Pakistan, Egypt or Turkey, Tunisia or Indonesia. The claim that yet more elections within this system would bring change of system is a lie made to secure this system from abolition,” it also reads.
“It is the Khilafah alone that ensures our education, foreign policy, economy, judiciary, consultation; accounting and removing of rulers are all according to Islam,” the leaflet adds.
Talking to Pakistan Today, a leader of HT confirmed that they had started a campaign across the country for abolishment of democracy and establishment of khilafah in Pakistan.
“We will hold public gatherings, corner meetings and door-to-door campaign to boycott the elections as the democracy is un-Islamic,” he added.
http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013/04/14/news/national/hizbut-tahrir-campaigns-against-democracy-polls/
A recent UNESCO report shows that Pakistan had 162 science and tech researchers per million people in 2009, a 2X increase from from 80 in 2005.
http://stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/TableViewer/document.aspx?ReportId=3587&IF_Language=eng&BR_Country=5860&BR_Region=40535
By contrast India had 152 S&T researchers per million inhabitants in 2009, up from 136 in 2005.
http://stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/TableViewer/document.aspx?ReportId=3587&IF_Language=eng&BR_Country=3560&BR_Region=40535
Here's an excerpt of a blog post from Scientific American:
Our class was recently asked whether or not we felt particle physics research should receive public funding. The majority of us were opposed, our reasons being that such research has no practical value. An instrument as sophisticated and expensive as a particle collider is surely a waste of a nation’s resources.
So it might come as a surprise that plans to build a synchrotron particle collider in Jordan have received overwhelming support from countries in the Middle East, including Iran, Pakistan, the Palestinian Authority and Israel. Scientific discovery is not the only goal being pursued. Those involved hope that this installation, appropriately dubbed SESAME (for Synchrotron-Light for Experimental Science and Applications in the Middle East), will open lines of communication between countries that would not normally work together, and possibly inspire peace.
In John Horgan’s The End of War, he argues that war can be eradicated by simply choosing peace. To support his argument he cites Muzafer Sherif’s famous Robbers Cave Experiment, in which twenty-two fifth-grade boys in a camp were divided into two groups, Rattlers and Eagles, and kept apart for a week, each group growing suspicious of the “others.”
When brought together to compete in games, the groups were alarmingly violent toward one another, having been “manipulated into hating and fighting.” However, once the groups were presented with problems that could only be solved by cooperating with one another, the violence ceased, and they eventually became friends. Sherif saw these interactions as evidence that “traditionally hostile groups can overcome their differences if they are bound together by [a common goal].”
This idea inspired Stanford University physicist Herman Winick more than a decade ago to suggest the synchrotron being dismantled in Germany be sent to the Middle East instead of being scrapped. In the same way that the boys in Sherif’s experiment could only rent a movie if everyone contributed money, a project as expensive as SESAME can only be achieved with funding from multiple countries.
As of 2012, Iran, Israel, Jordan and Turkey have agreed to make contributions of $5 million each to fund the project, which will be based in Jordan and is expected to open in 2015. Pakistan and the Palestinian Authority are willing to give $5 million and $2 million respectively, and Egypt and the United States are both considering making contributions. The project has also been donated spare parts from a number of countries following Germany’s example, and has received funding from the European Union (Science Diplomacy).
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/2013/04/08/synchrotron-project-brings-together-unlikely-partners-in-middle-east/
Here's a Times of India story on India threatening massive retaliation if Pak uses tactical nukes:
NEW DELHI: India will retaliate massively even if Pakistan uses tactical nuclear weapons against it. With Pakistan developing "tactical" nuclear warheads, that is, miniaturizing its weapons to be carried on short-range missiles, India will protect its security interests by retaliating to a "smaller" tactical attack in exactly the same manner as it would respond to a "big" strategic attack.
Articulating Indian nuclear policy in this regard for the first time, Shyam Saran, convener of the National Security Advisory Board, said, "India will not be the first to use nuclear weapons, but if it is attacked with such weapons, it would engage in nuclear retaliation which will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage on its adversary. The label on a nuclear weapon used for attacking India, strategic or tactical, is irrelevant from the Indian perspective." This is significant, because Saran was placing on record India's official nuclear posture with the full concurrence of the highest levels of nuclear policymakers in New Delhi.
Giving a speech on India's nuclear deterrent recently, Saran placed India's nuclear posture in perspective in the context of recent developments, notably the "jihadist edge" that Pakistan's nuclear weapons capability have acquired.
Saran argued that as a result of its tactical weapons, Pakistan believes it has brought down the threshold of nuclear use. "Pakistani motivation is to dissuade India from contemplating conventional punitive retaliation to sub-conventional but highly destructive and disruptive cross-border terrorist strikes such as the horrific 26/11 attack on Mumbai. What Pakistan is signalling to India and to the world is that India should not contemplate retaliation even if there is another Mumbai because Pakistan has lowered the threshold of nuclear use to the theatre level. This is nothing short of nuclear blackmail, no different from the irresponsible behaviour one witnesses in North Korea," he said.
One of the main reasons for Pakistan miniaturizing its nukes is actually to keep its weapons from being confiscated or neutralized by the US, a fear that has grown in the Pakistani establishment in the wake of the operation against Osama bin Laden. "Pakistan has, nevertheless, projected its nuclear deterrent as solely targeted at India and its strategic doctrine mimics the binary nuclear equation between the US and the Soviet Union which prevailed during the Cold War," Saran said.
However, warning Pakistan, he added, "A limited nuclear war is a contradiction in terms. Any nuclear exchange, once initiated, would swiftly and inexorably escalate to the strategic level. Pakistan would be prudent not to assume otherwise as it sometimes appears to do, most recently by developing and perhaps deploying theatre nuclear weapons."
There have been significant shifts in Pakistan's nuclear posture recently. First is the movement from uranium to a newer generation of plutonium weapons, which has enabled Pakistan to increase the number of weapons, outstripping India in weapons and fissile material production. Although they are still to be verified, Pakistan has claimed it has miniaturized nuclear weapons to be used on cruise missiles and other short-range missiles. The newer generation of Pakistan's weapons are also solid-fuelled rather than liquid, making them easier to transport and launch.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Strike-by-even-a-midget-nuke-will-invite-massive-response-India-warns-Pak/articleshow/19793847.cms
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