During the last Trump Administration in 2019, India's friends in Washington argued for a US policy of "strategic altruism" with India. The new Trump administration seems to be rejecting such talk. Prior to his recent meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House, President Donald Trump described India as the "worst abuser of tariffs" and announced "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian imports to the United States. At the same time, Mr. Trump cracked down on both legal and illegal immigration from India. His administration is deporting thousands of illegal Indian immigrants in handcuffs and shackles on US military aircraft. Meanwhile, stringent new regulations on temporary work visas could significantly delay visa processing times and reduce the number of Indian workers employed in the United States on H1B visas.
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| Tariffs Comparison. Source: BBC |
In a 2019 piece titled "The India Dividend: New Delhi Remains Washington’s Best Hope in Asia" published in Foreign Affairs journal, authors Robert Blackwill and Ashley Tellis argued that the Trump Administration should continue the US policy of "strategic altruism" with India that began with US-India nuclear agreement. They asked President Trump to ignore the fact that the US companies and economy have only marginally benefited, if at all, from this policy. They see India as a "superpower in waiting" and urge Washington to focus on the goal of having India as an ally to check China's rise. They see Chinese support for India's arch-rival Pakistan and China’s growing weight in South Asia and beyond as a threat to India.
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| India Tops Source Countries For H1B Visa Holders. Source: USCIS |
Trump's trade and immigration policies are going to hurt India at a time when its economic growth is declining and job growth is stagnant. The latest Indian annual budget has offered middle class tax relief to spur growth. But economists warn it may not be enough for the vast majority of Indians, whose income still falls below taxable limits and who may still be reeling from the impact of the COVID pandemic, which devastated their earnings, according to a report in Aljazeera. “There is a vast base [of people] where recovery has not come back after the pandemic,” says Kaushik Basu, professor of economics at Cornell University. “We see this in data that the agricultural labour base has increased. And agriculture may well be just a parking spot.”
Illegal immigration from India to the US has dramatically increased on Prime Minister Modi's watch. A Pew Research Center report said that as of 2022, India ranked third, after Mexico and El Salvador, on the list of countries with the largest number of undocumented immigrants — 725,000 — living in the U.S.
India has a serious unemployment problem, particularly for the young people entering the job market by the millions each year. This problem is concealed by headline economic growth figures highlighted by the Modi government. At the same time, India is losing its best and brightest in a massive brain drain.
President Trump has clearly not taken the advice of India's friends in Washington. He is in no mood for "strategic altruism". Instead, the Trump Administration has signaled that it will treat ties with India as just another transactional relationship.
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33 comments:
Russia remains a time-tested friend of India. No power in the world trusts the US. Any ties with the US can be only transnational no matter which country is on the other side. But that is understandable. Only foolish and immature nations describe their international ties in terms of Higher than the Himalayas, deeper than the ocean, and sweeter than honey international ties. All other nations are driven solely by self-interest.
India is heading for a growth of 5% or there abouts.
It is developing both hard and soft skills for the future in its upcoming work force. IT, digital and AI.
Hello Mr. Sanjeev
Unfortunately India is loosing more friendly countries than any other countries is loosing.
In BRIC, Russia and China both are recommending the joining of Pakistan.
Mr. Sanjeev
How trust worthy is India as a country? When USSR was trying to invade Afghanistan and when their was a war between America and USSR at that time because of Afghanistan. India at that time had good relations with both USSR and Afghanistan .
Why didn't India play a role of peace and intermediary between USSR and Afghanistan?
Why was India silent when USSR invaded Afghanistan and war started in 1979?
What role has India played in bridging the gap between countries that are in conflict with each other?
Mr. Sanjeev
Pls note that no matter what Indian media and Indian government says about Pakistan but pls at least Pakistan has played a role of peace and tried to bridge the gap between 2 great powers like America and China in the past.
Even as far as I know again when serious issues of trade have started between America and China. Some Pakistani officials like Bilawal Bhutto are keen to bridge the gap between these both countries
.
Sir
I have been hearing this from many Indians since last I think more than 7 years that India is having this much economic growth and Indias economy is performing exceptionally well. sir if this is really true then why since last many years not enough jobs are being produced in India?
In labour participation rate, India is now ranked even lower than Pakistan and other South Asian countries.
Also if economy of India is performing really good then why Indian government doesn't focus on poverty reduction or elimination programs to lift the poors of India out of poverty and slums?
If economy of India is performing really well and good then why many Indians are preferring and willing to leave India and settle into 1st world countries?
Hello Mr. sanjeev
Agree with you, actually politicians and government of Pakistan are mostly driven by their emotions.
India only has strategic ties with Israel and Russia.The two countries for whom the Indian state is willing to stick it’s neck out.
It is transactional with everyone else.This is not a bad thing.
Rare Split Between Trump and Musk Over Tesla India Plans - Business Insider
https://www.businessinsider.com/rare-split-trump-musk-over-tesla-india-plans-2025-2
President Donald Trump said it'd be "unfair" if Tesla opened a factory in India.
Tesla is looking to build a presence in India, posting job ads for showroom workers this week.
It has long been speculated that Tesla may have plans to build a production facility in India.
President Donald Trump said it would be "unfair" to the US if Elon Musk opened a Tesla plant in India — highlighting a rare point of difference in an interview designed to showcase the closeness of the president and his billionaire advisor.
In an interview with Fox News that aired Tuesday, Trump criticized India's tariff policy, under which electric vehicles face import duties of up to 100%.
Trump argued that it was "impossible" for Musk to sell a car in India.
"Every country in the world takes advantage of us, and they do it with tariffs," he said, adding, "It is impossible to sell a car, practically, in, as an example, India."
"Now, if he built the factory in India, that's OK, but that's unfair to us," Trump said of Musk. "It's very unfair."
Trump went on to say that last week, in discussions with India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, in Washington, DC, he threatened to impose reciprocal tariffs on India if it continued to impose high tariffs on US goods.
"It's — it's like, fair is fair," Musk commented approvingly.
Tesla has long sought to build its presence in India, which is projected to become the fourth-biggest economy this year. The country's protectionist tariffs, however, have proved a major obstacle.
Last year, India said it would lower EV tariffs for companies prepared to invest in manufacturing in the country, fueling speculation that Tesla could build a production facility there.
Musk was expected to announce a major investment during a trip to India last April but postponed the trip when Tesla announced plans to lay off 10% of its staff.
I do not know why the talk of Tesla's India entry is often hyped so much in the Indian media. Considering their relatively premium prices, I do not think their cars are going to make much of a sales impact in the Indian market even with reduced import duties. If Tesla were to use India as a manufacturing base for exports that could be a different matter though. However, American auto brands have historically not done well India. Both Ford and GM quit Indian market due to poor sales. Also, domestic auto brands like Tata and Mahindra as well as Chinese and Korean ones like MG, BYD, Kia etc have already been manufacturing affordable electric cars suited for the Indian market. On top of that, the ICE market leader in India Suzuki recently announced that it would be using its Indian plants as the sole manufacturing base for its upcoming global EVs.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1885654/suzuki-motor-president-says-india-to-be-global-production-hub-for-evs
https://www.autocarindia.com/industry/all-global-suzuki-evs-will-be-made-in-india-toshihiro-suzuki-434286
Trump's tariff threats against India is nothing new. We saw that at the beginning of his first term as well. But I think "strategic relations" goes beyond mundane stuff like trade, tariffs and immigration. I wouldn't consider US-India relations as a "friendship" or "alliance" by any stretch, but it is a "partnership" defined by certain shared geo-political interests and concerns. And it is not expected that India and US would agree over everything in that area either. It has never been so even under Biden, Obama or Bush Jr, so it wouldn't be under Trump as well. An area where American and Indian strategic interests find convergence is with regards to the challenges posed by China, and there is plenty of common ground for a strategic relationship to develop with regards to military cooperation, intelligence sharing, and perhaps some mutually beneficial trade agreements. To an extent it can be considered transactional (for Trump every relationship is transactional, even those with US's NATO allies), but it is still a well-grounded long-term relationship compared to that between US and Pakistan in recent times.
India won't need Tesla for its EV transition..it's the other way around.. Anyone who thinks otherwise just does not get it...
Dear Sir
Thank you for starting this important and interesting post about India and US strategic relations.
Unfortunately American authorities must understand and realize that it is not in fact India which has a strategic depth in this region of South Asia or in entire Asia , it is mashallah Pakistan as a whole which has strategic importance in this region because of its geographic location.
Also what American government must understand and realize is that no matter how much they support India keeping in view the growing influence and power of China in this region and no matter how much they try to beef up the Indian military and even try to support the economy of India by allowing US based companies to invest in India. Still Indian Army will not be able to develope the level of threat against China that could in fact stop the growing influence and power of China.
"They Take Advantage Of US": Trump's Latest Jab Over USAID Funds For India
President Donald Trump questioned why the US was providing aid to India, alleging that the country already benefits from high tariffs imposed on American goods.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/donald-trump-usaid-doge-elon-musk-they-take-advantage-of-us-trumps-latest-jab-over-usaid-funds-for-india-7773752
New Delhi:
US President Donald Trump today launched fresh criticism of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) for allegedly granting funds to interfere in India's election process. President Trump questioned why the US was providing aid to India, alleging that the country already benefits from high tariffs imposed on American goods.
"Eighteen million dollars for helping India with its elections. Why the hell? Why don't we just go to old paper ballots, and let them help us with their elections, right? Voter ID. Wouldn't that be nice? We're giving money to India for elections. They don't need money," President Trump said today, addressing the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington.
The "eighteen million" figure could not be independently verified as an earlier US government report through the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) claimed "$21 million" was allocated for "voter turnout" in India.
"They take advantage of us pretty good. One of the highest tariffed nations in the world. We try and sell something. They have a 200 per cent tariff. And then we're giving them a lot of money to help them with their election," President Trump continued.
Apparently, the "$21 million" USAID funds in question was disbursed to Bangladesh, not India as per an Indian Express investigation.
https://www.deccanherald.com/amp/story/world/21-mn-in-usaid-was-not-to-increase-indias-voter-turnout-it-was-for-bangladesh-report-3415458
https://indianexpress.com/article/express-exclusive/usaid-funding-team-elon-musk-flags-donald-trump-waves-but-a-fact-check-21-million-did-not-go-to-india-for-voter-turnout-was-for-bangladesh-9847463/
Since the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) announced February 16 that it had “cancelled,” among a string of projects, USAID funding of “$21 million for voter turnout in India,” the ruling BJP has accused the opposition Congress of using alleged external influence in India’s election process.
Trump himself, in a speech in Miami Wednesday, said: “Why do we need to spend $21m for voter turnout in India? Wow, $21m! I guess they were trying to get somebody else elected.”
Facts show all may have jumped the gun.
That $21 million, records accessed by The Indian Express show, was sanctioned in 2022 for Bangladesh, not India.
Of this, $13.4 million has already been disbursed, ostensibly for “political and civic engagement” among Bangladesh students in the run-up to the January 2024 elections and projects that put a question mark on the integrity of these elections — seven months before the ouster of Sheikh Hasina.
A December 2024 LinkedIn post by USAID advisor in Dhaka Lubain Masum that confirms million grant through CEPPS.
At the centre of the dispute are two USAID grants on DOGE’s list that were channelled via the Consortium for Elections and Political Process Strengthening (CEPPS), a group based in Washington, DC, which specialises in “complex democracy, rights and governance programming.”
CEPPS was meant to receive a total of $486 million from USAID. This corpus included, as per DOGE: $22 million for “inclusive and participatory political process” in Moldova; and $21 million for “voter turnout in India.”
The first was awarded to CEPPS in September 2016 to “promote” an “inclusive and participatory political process” in Moldova. With Federal Award Identification Number AID117LA1600001 (an ID specific to the grant), this was to run until July 2026 and $13.2 million has been disbursed so far.
However, the USAID $21-million grant that DOGE flagged was meant for Bangladesh. Consider these:
* Each federal grant comes with a specific place of performance — the country where it is meant to be spent. According to the official open data source of US federal spending, there is no USAID funded CEPPS project in India since 2008.
* The only ongoing USAID grant to CEPPS matching the denomination of $21 million and the purpose of voting was sanctioned — with Federal Award Identification Number 72038822LA00001 — in July 2022 for USAID’s Amar Vote Amar (My Vote is Mine). This is a project in Bangladesh.
* In November 2022, the purpose of this grant was modified to “USAID’s Nagorik (Citizen) Program”. A USAID Political Processes Advisor in Dhaka confirmed this on social media while on a US visit in December 2024: “The USAID-funded $21 million CEPPS/Nagorik project… which I manage.”
Meant to run for three years until July 2025, this grant has already spent $13.4 million, records show.
Between July 2022 and October 2024, this $21-million grant was split into six sub-grants: two each for three CEPPS member organisations International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES); International Republican Institute (IRI); and National Democratic Institute (NDI).
IFES is based in Arlington, Virginia; IRI and NDI have their headquarters in Washington, DC.
When contacted, an IFES spokesperson declined to comment.
Queries sent to NDI and IRI remain unanswered.
Campaign material and social media posts show how some of these sub-grants were spent in Bangladesh.
For India, Bangladesh protests highlight dangers of jobless growth - CSMonitor.com
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-South-Central/2024/0809/Young-educated-and-jobless-Is-India-s-unemployment-crisis-waiting-to-explode
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is under growing pressure to create jobs, particularly for India’s educated youth.
After months of rising unemployment and higher-education scandals, some young Indians say they’re losing faith in getting ahead through merit. And some opposition leaders say India could be heading in the same direction as Bangladesh.
Neighboring Bangladesh has been wracked by weeks of violent protests, led by students frustrated by limited job prospects. Both India and Bangladesh face persistent unemployment and inequality despite overall economic growth, and until this week, both were run by long-ruling prime ministers who’ve been accused of authoritarian practices in recent years.
“What happened in Bangladesh … has given a message to people in power,” said Uddhav Thackeray, former chief minister of Maharashtra, after Bangladesh’s prime minister fled the country. “Don’t test the patience of people.”
Mr. Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has described such comments as incendiary and even anarchist, and political analysts note there are important differences between India and Bangladesh, including the former’s size and sprawl. Nevertheless, jobs are a major part of Mr. Modi’s platform; his government’s recently proposed budget includes $24 billion for job creation over the next five years.
“The situation [in Bangladesh] does put pressure on the government to address the employment issue more carefully, which they have not been doing effectively,” says economist Arun Kumar, who calls the budget announcement “more of a show.”
But for him, watching both countries grapple with similar issues highlights the relative strengths of India’s democracy. Compared with Bangladesh, where the opposition boycotted the most recent elections citing political suppression, India has a robust opposition and more freedom for dissent.
“In Bangladesh, a combination of factors created an explosive situation, something that has not yet occurred in India,” says the retired Jawaharlal Nehru University professor. “While unemployment in India is acute and the youth are frustrated, there are still avenues for expression.”
Employment crisis on the brink?
Unemployment has exceeded 5% every month this year, reaching an eight-month high of 9.2% in June before dipping to 7.9% in July, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. This was a key issue for voters during India’s recent general election; a prepoll survey by the Delhi-based Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies found that 62% of respondents believed finding a job had become harder compared with five years ago.
It’s a burden young people feel acutely. The India Employment Report 2024, released by the International Labour Organization and the Institute for Human Development in March, found that India’s youth comprise nearly 83% of the unemployed workforce. The proportion of unemployed youth with secondary or higher education nearly doubled, from 35.2% in 2000 to 65.7% in 2022.
Mr. Modi’s supporters have dismissed this data as misleading. BJP spokesperson Syed Zafar Islam said at a recent press conference that India is a leader in job creation, citing the latest Reserve Bank of India report, which states that 50 million jobs were created in 2023-24 alone.
International Monetary Fund Executive Director Krishnamurthy Subramanian has also pushed back on the idea that young people are unhappy with India’s job market. “There is no doubt that we need to create more jobs, that is because we are a young population,” the former chief economic adviser told The Quint this week. “But just because there is an emphasis on employment and job creation does not mean in a binary manner that jobs are not being created. … That’s important to keep in mind.”
"Trump’s aid cuts to hurt pro-democracy projects the most in Pakistan"
https://www.dawn.com/news/1893894/situationer-trumps-aid-cuts-to-hurt-pro-democracy-projects-the-most
Pakistan has been one of the largest recipients of US development assistance in South Asia. Under these programmes, Washington provided between $13 million and $15 million to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to support free and fair elections.
The funds were allocated for the ‘Strengthening Electoral and Legislative Processes’ project, which ran from 2016 to 2023, under the supervision of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
In a recent interview with a Fox News affiliate in Detroit, Michigan, former Pakistani president Arif Alvi claimed that the US Agency for International Development (USAID) had given up to $17m to the ECP.
Supporting the Trump administration’s decision to suspend such funding, Dr Alvi asserted that the ECP was responsible for overseeing the 2024 general elections, which he alleged were marred by widespread rigging.
However, according to data from the US government website ForeignAssistance.gov, Pakistan received between $13m and $15m for the seven-year programme, and not specifically for the 2024 elections.
The sudden loss of US funding raises concerns about Pakistan’s ability to maintain electoral transparency and civil society engagement. The cut in democracy assistance means that the ECP will have fewer resources for election monitoring and capacity-building programmes.
Civil society organisations that rely on US support for voter education and legal reform will also struggle to continue operations. Media and watchdog groups that play a crucial role in ensuring fair elections may lose funding, limiting their ability to hold institutions accountable.
A senior official at a leading Pakistani think tank, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the situation as “a major setback for democracy advocates in Pakistan. The US was a key partner in ensuring transparency, and this decision leaves a vacuum that authoritarian forces could exploit”.
Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Centre’s South Asia Institute, emphasised the long-term damage these cuts could inflict: “Pakistan is one of the largest recipients of US development assistance in South Asia. These cuts will not only impact electoral support but will also affect civil society organisations that promote democratic governance.”
Information technology worker Purushothaman Rajaram, along with software engineer Ekta Bhatia and data scientist Qun Wang, is leading a lawsuit against Meta Platforms, accusing the company of systematically favoring foreign workers over U.S. citizens to reduce labor costs, Reuters reported.
https://indiawest.com/bias-against-citizens-meta-must-face-lawsuit-brought-by-rajaram-says-judge/
On February 25, U.S. Magistrate Judge Laurel Beeler ruled that the three U.S. citizens could proceed with their proposed class-action lawsuit. The plaintiffs, all highly qualified professionals, claim they applied for multiple positions at Meta between 2020 and 2024 but were repeatedly rejected due to the company’s alleged preference for visa holders.
The case, Rajaram et al v Meta Platforms Inc, is being heard in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, No. 22-02920.
Beeler’s decision cited statistics showing that 15% of Meta’s U.S. workforce consists of H-1B visa holders—far above the national average of 0.5%—as evidence supporting claims that the company favors foreign workers, Reuters noted.
Meta, headquartered in Menlo Park, California, denied the allegations, calling them baseless. The company stated it would “vigorously defend” itself, arguing there was no proof of intentional discrimination or that the plaintiffs would have been hired if they were not U.S. citizens.
The judge also referenced Meta’s October 2021 settlement with the federal government, in which the company agreed to pay up to $14.25 million to resolve claims that it routinely reserved jobs for temporary visa holders while excluding American applicants. “These allegations support the plaintiffs’ overall complaint that they were not hired because Meta favors H-1B visa holders,” Beeler wrote.
The lawsuit stems from a December 2020 government case against Meta, filed just weeks before former President Donald Trump left office. Beeler had initially dismissed an earlier version of the lawsuit, in which Rajaram was the sole plaintiff, in November 2022.
However, a divided federal appeals court revived the case in June 2023, citing Section 1981 of the Civil Rights Act of 1866, a Civil War-era law that bars discrimination based on “alienage” in contracts. Conservative groups have frequently invoked this statute in their opposition to workplace diversity initiatives, Reuters reported.
Sushant Singh
@SushantSin
Thinking of India’s vulnerabilities vis-a-vis China, Trump’s casting of Ukraine as the aggressor, and his description of the parts of Ukraine occupied by Russia as Russian, and his formula for peace - surrender - should serve as a warning. We are all Zelenskky now.
@tallstories
https://x.com/SushantSin/status/1896412969841705192
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We are in Zelenskyy’s shoes now. Op Ed by Nirupama Subramanian
With Trump and Putin virtually on the same side, India can no longer fall back on Moscow
Trump’s casting of Ukraine as the aggressor and his formula for peace should serve as a warning.
India must now deal with the reality of a world where the friendships and partnerships of old may no longer count. with Trump in the middle, the US offers no consolation. With him and Putin virtually on the same side, India can no longer fall back on Moscow to exercise strategic autonomy. In its own neighborhood, India is not just friendless today; it has China glowering at it with Pakistan by its side. At a time when the developing world is looking for a country that can stand up to Trump's trade and tariff wars, many wonder what India truly stands for. Leading members of the Global South such as Brazil and South Africa are cummier with Beijing than with Delhi.
Dear Sir
Asalam Alaikum,
Ramazan Mubarak to you and to all the Pakistanis and Muslims in America .
Sir I have something to share with you since last few days Pakistani media is having serious obsession with the cricket match that was going on between India and Pakistan in Dubai where India badly defeated Pakistan.
Kholi who is considered as one of the best batsmen in Indian cricket team made a century against Pakistan in this match. Because of this great performance by first Kholi, Pakistani cricket fans have become crazy for him specially Pakistani girls.
Sir what I think is that It is not because of the level of Indian cricket team that Pakistan lost match against them it is because of such bad performance by Pakistani players because of which Pakistan lost the match.
Many commentators of cricket are saying on Pakistani channels that this defeat of Pakistan was pre planned,also their are 5 ministers from Pakistan government and 2 beuracrats who are running PCB( Pakistan cricket Board) and because PCB has become corrupt and politicised, so this pollution in PCB is badly affecting the selection committee in the PCB where only those players are being selected who are either unfit or have a poor record and this is happening specially when Pakistan plays against India.
Sir can you pls throw light on this and pls make a blog about it?
How true are these allegations of these cricket commentators in Pakistani channels against PCB?
Sir looking forward to your reply.
Thanks
"With Trump and Putin virtually on the same side, India can no longer fall back on Moscow.."
They said the same thing when Russia got closer to China due to US sanctions. If anything, Trump's America making peace with Putin's Russia reduces India's dilemma of being forced to choose between the two "partners". Peace with US and a reduction or rollback of sanctions would also reduce Russia's dependence on China, which is again a plus for India from a geo-political perspective. Putin would be never happy playing second fiddle to Xi's China.
Also, Indian foreign policy relies less on "friendships" and "alliances" than "partnerships". In a multipolar world where China, Russia, Europe and US act largely independently to protect their own interests, there is always room for India to maneuver and enter into opportunistic partnerships. Unlike the case of Pakistan, it has something to offer to everyone.
And as for Brazil and South Africa, no one really expects them to pick India over China in any case, due to the latter's economic heft and dominance in BRICS. Realistically, India cannot be expected to punch above its weight here. A country with a GDP one-sixth that of China can be expected to have an global influence in the same proportion, not more.
President Trump mentioned India and Pakistan in his State of the Union speech to Congress.
Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on Indian imports into US. He named countries that charge the US “tremendous" amount of tariffs which included India. “On average, the European Union, China, Brazil, India, Mexico and Canada …have you heard of them? And countless other nations charge us tremendously high tariffs than we charge them,” Trump said.
“It’s very unfair,” he added.
Singling out India during the speech, Trump said, “India charges us auto tariffs higher than 100 percent.”
Trump thanked Pakistan for arresting an ISIS man accused of killing American soldiers during Biden's hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.
"I want to thank, especially, the Pakistani government for helping arrest this monster," he said. He also described it as "a very huge day for the affected families."
Just as a good businessman has no permanent enemies or friends, Trump seemingly has no favourites in his trade wars either. But perhaps Pakistan had the fortune of its trade volume (and deficit) with US being small enough to fall under Trump's radar. As per USTR, Pakistan's exports to US in 2024 amounted to $5 bn, compared to India's $87 bn and China's $438 bn.
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/south-central-asia/pakistan
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/south-central-asia/india
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china
Also India perhaps had an added misfortune of not having a terrorist wanted by US to hand over and please Trump. (Maybe Trump should have demanded that RAW's Vikas Yadav be handed over in the Pannun case in exchange for Tahawwur Hussain Rana. But he seemingly didn't, or India didn't comply.)
Suhasini Haidar
@suhasinih
India’s silence on Wednesday was in contrast to countries like China, Mexico, and Canada, which have already announced counter-reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods. China and Canada have also filed complaints with the World Trade Organisation against the U.S. measures.
https://x.com/suhasinih/status/1897468684110553243
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Suhasini Haidar
@suhasinih
No response from India on Trump April 2 tariffs . While announcement, that came while Commerce Min Goyal in DC, is disapponting for those who thought BTA talks would put off tariffs, officials hope theres still time for negotiations. Reporting
@the_hindu https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/no-response-from-india-on-trump-tariffs-so-far-all-eyes-on-commerce-ministers-meetings-in-washington/article69295283.ece
https://x.com/suhasinih/status/1897467653825941681
--------------------
India did not respond on Wednesday (March 5, 2025) to U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that his administration planned to go ahead with reciprocal tariffs against India.
Mr. Trump’s speech came a day after Commerce and Industries Minister Piyush Goyal met his U.S. counterpart Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and was due to meet U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer for talks on the first phase of a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) to be finalised later this year. The BTA was decided on during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington on February 13.
India’s inclusion in the list of countries that would still face reciprocal tariffs after April 2 is believed to be a disappointment for those in the government who believed that Mr. Modi’s visit, and the promise of “fair-trade terms” in the BTA, could have postponed Mr. Trump’s decision. However, officials say there is still time for negotiation with the Trump administration.
Global responses
India’s silence on Wednesday (March 5, 2025) was in contrast to countries like China, Mexico, and Canada, which have already announced counter-reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods. China and Canada have also filed complaints with the World Trade Organisation against the U.S. measures. While Brazil has not so far responded to the reciprocal tariffs, its President Lula da Silva had defied Mr. Trump’s threat over a further “100% tariffs” on BRICS countries last week, saying that such threats would not stop the emerging economies from seeking alternatives to U.S. dollar dominance, “no matter what”.
All eyes are now on the statements coming out of Mr. Goyal’s meetings in Washington this week on discussions for the BTA’s first phase. He and U.S. officials are believed to be looking at a number of areas where tariffs can be cut. Ahead of Mr. Modi’s visit last month, New Delhi had already announced tariff cuts on bourbon whiskey, wines, motorcycles, and electric vehicles.
No response from India on Trump tariffs so far
Disappointing, but may not be the final word, say Indian officials on U.S. reciprocal tariffs from April 2; Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal is in the midst of talks on a bilateral trade agreement, looking at areas where tariffs can be cut
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/no-response-from-india-on-trump-tariffs-so-far-all-eyes-on-commerce-ministers-meetings-in-washington/article69295283.ece
‘Fair-trade terms’
According to the joint statement issued in February, India and the U.S. will target $500 billion in bilateral trade by 2030, more than doubling last year’s trade value of about $200 billion, by ensuring “fairness, national security and job creation”.
“Recognizing that this level of ambition would require new, fair-trade terms, the leaders announced plans to negotiate the first tranche of a mutually beneficial, multi-sector Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by fall of 2025,” the statement had said, indicating an expectation of having a deal in place by September 2025.
Hailing the agreement last month, Mr. Goyal had said that the understanding Mr. Modi brought back with him had given the business community a lot of “confidence”, and a lot of “relief”.
Nifty, Sensex: India middle-class jitters amid stock market rout
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz7vlezv05no
Two years ago, on his bank adviser's suggestion, Rajesh Kumar pulled out his savings - fixed deposits included - and shifted to mutual funds, stocks and bonds.
With India's stock market booming, Mr Kumar, a Bihar-based engineer, joined millions investing in publicly traded companies. Six years ago, only one in 14 Indian households channelled their savings into the stock market - now, it's one in five.
But the tide has turned.
For six months, India's markets have slid as foreign investors pulled out, valuations remained high, earnings weakened and global capital shifted to China - wiping out $900bn in investor value since their September peak. While the decline began before US President Donald Trump's tariff announcements, they have now become a bigger drag as more details emerge.
India's benchmark Nifty 50 share index, which tracks the country's top 50 publicly traded companies, is on its longest losing streak in 29 years, declining for five straight months. This is a significant slump in one of the world's fastest-growing markets. Stock brokers are reporting that their activity has dropped by a third.
"For more than six months now, my investments have been in the red. This is the worst experience in the last decade that I have been invested in stock market," Mr Kumar says.
Mr Kumar, 55, now keeps little money in the bank, having shifted most of his savings to the stock market. With his son's 1.8 million-rupee ($20,650; £16,150) private medical college fee due in July, he worries about selling investments at a loss to cover it. "Once the market recovers, I'm thinking of moving some money back to the bank," he says.
His anxieties reflect those of millions of middle-class Indians who have poured into the stock market from cities big and small - part of a financial revolution.
The go-to investment route is Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs), where funds collect fixed monthly contributions. The number of Indians investing through SIPs has soared past 100 million, nearly trebling from 34 million five years ago. Many first-time investors, lured by the promise of high returns, enter with limited risk awareness - often influenced by a wave of social media "finfluencers" on platforms like Instagram and YouTube, a mixed bag of experts and amateurs alike.
"New Trump travel ban could bar Afghans, Pakistanis soon: report"
https://www.dawn.com/news/1896139/new-trump-travel-ban-could-bar-afghans-pakistanis-soon-report
A new travel ban by President Donald Trump could bar people from Afghanistan and Pakistan from entering the US as soon as next week based on a government review of countries’ security and vetting risks, three sources familiar with the matter said.
The three sources, who requested anonymity, said other countries could also be on the list but did not know which ones.
New norm in US firms force many Indians to miss H-1B lottery
Source: The Times of India
https://search.app/7Jp8BHjT18c2pR5bA
Hyderabad: A continuous churn in visa policies in the US, has pushed many Indians to the edge. In a recent move, several American companies have made it mandatory for those on Optional Practical Training (OPT) to work with them for at least a year before they can sponsor their H-1B. Result: Many freshly-minted Indian graduates with new jobs — hoping to participate in the H-1B visa lottery this March — are now forced to sit out of the process.
Incidentally, Indians comprise the largest group of H-1B visa applicants, making up nearly 72% of the lottery system's applications.
This policy shift aimed at filtering employees who can commit for a longer time in the company, OPT holders said, has added to their uncertainty.
"I was hoping to file for the H-1B lottery this March. But now, my employer has made it clear that they will only sponsor employees who have completed one year with the company. I will have to wait until 2026 for my first attempt," said a Hyderabad-based techie who was hired in Nov 2024, after completing his master's in computer science.
OPT is usually issued to students on F1 to work for one year post-completion of their education.
While many new recruits have been contemplating switching jobs to escape the one-year rule, they admit that it isn't easy. "Though I know I can make it for the March lottery if I move into a company that doesn't have this OPT rule, finding fresh employment is tough. Also, the visa transfer process isn't always straightforward," said another 25-year-old living in Los Angeles and working with a cybersecurity firm. She was hired in Oct 2024.
Take hit on pay, profile
The uncertainty is forcing many Indian students to make difficult choices — settle for lesser pay, junior profiles or just delay their plans for long-term work in the US.
"A friend of mine switched companies just to get the H-1B sponsorship, but his current job is a downgrade from what he was doing before. The pay is as much as 20% less compared to what the earlier company was offering," said Rohan Shah, studying data analytics in New Jersey. Shah is now stressed about his chances of finding a job with a company ready to sponsor his H-1B immediately. "What is the guarantee that they will sponsor after a year? And if they don't, where will we go? We will have to work odd jobs," he said.
Another student from Bengaluru, currently working in Texas as a programme manager said the shift in policy has left many students feeling vulnerable. "It's almost like a trap — you work hard to get a job, but the very company that hires you now wants you to prove loyalty for a year before they'll sponsor your visa," he said.
QUOTE
While employers are well within their rights to set internal policies on sponsorship, it does add an extra layer of uncertainty for immigrants navigating the already complex visa process. Switching jobs just to enter the lottery is not always the best long-term strategy. It's important to weigh career growth, job stability, and the likelihood of sponsorship before making a decision
Tougher H-1B Visa Scrutiny Anticipated as Annual Lottery Opens
https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/tougher-h-1b-visa-scrutiny-anticipated-as-annual-lottery-opens
Higher fees not likely to deter entries in annual lottery starting March 7
More scrutiny expected of petitions for specialty worker visas
US businesses looking to add high-skilled foreign talent on H-1Bs face the potential for stringent scrutiny from the Trump administration if they come out on top of the annual lottery for the specialty occupation visas.
Employers can register workers starting Friday for the chance to apply for one of 85,000 new visas, which are most heavily used in the technology industry. It’s the first selection process since US Citizenship and Immigration Services hiked registration costs to $215.
But immigration attorneys don’t expect a significant slowdown in interest because of the higher cost of entry. The bigger question for many is how hard getting visa approvals will be after the lottery.
“The reality is that even small employers rely on the H-1B for their talent pipeline. I don’t think the fee increase is going to change that model,” said Isha Atassi, a partner at Fragomen, Del Rey, Bernsen & Loewy LLP. “We certainly expect higher levels of scrutiny on petitions for those that are lucky enough to be selected.”
Tougher Vetting
The H-1B program has been a subject of infighting within Trump administration circles. While White House adviser Elon Musk has defended the need for the program, figures like Steve Bannon have attacked it for undermining US workers. In the first administration, rejection rates jumped and approval of new visas slowed thanks to a deluge of requests for evidence to support information in visa petitions.
Many expect similar hurdles this time around. That’s thanks in part to new H-1B regulationsfinalized by the Biden administration last year that require a worker’s degree be directly tied to their role.
“The actual adjudication of H-1B petitions once the registrations are selected in the lottery, I think is going to go very slowly,” said Angelo Paparelli, a partner at Vialto Law (US) PLLC.
The main immigration focus in the early weeks of Trump’s second term has been detaining unauthorized immigrants and ramping up deportation rates. How USCIS handles H-1B petitions after the upcoming lottery will offer a strong indicator of its workplace enforcement agenda, attorneys said. Many are preparing now by anticipating potential information requests when they craft visa petitions.
“Immigration attorneys and clients right now are kind of on edge waiting to see how the dust is going to settle,” said Anna Gorisch, managing partner at Kendall Immigration Law PLLC.
Fee Hikes
USCIS last year finalized new fees on a slate of immigration benefits for the first time since 2016. The fee-funded agency said adjusting user fees was long overdue to help pay for the costs of adjudicating immigration benefits.
Since the online registration system for the H-1B lottery was launched in 2020, employers only had to pay $10 to register each worker. That was a negligible cost that did little to discourage the growth in registrations, Gorisch said.
“It’s a ‘why not’ at $10,” she said.
The top H-1B employer in fiscal year 2024, Amazon.com Inc., got approval for more than 3,800 new visa petitions that year. A $205 increase may appear steep, but it’s still a fraction of the costs of an H-1B worker’s salary, and even pales in comparison to recruiting costs, said Xiao Wang, CEO at Boundless Immigration.
“If a company needs the foreign talent, they’re still willing to pay,” he said.
Employers’ demand on the program would likely only change, Wang said, if the government mandated significantly higher prevailing wage levels for entry-level workers, which are determined by their role and the region where they are based. The first Trump administration attempted to raise wage rates for the visa program before it was blocked by litigation.
Shashank Mattoo
@MattooShashank
Shocking arrogance on display here from US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick
- "India needs to stop listening to silly people"
- Laughs at concerns about US reliability as defence supplier
- Dismisses UK, France and Russia as Indian defence partners
https://x.com/MattooShashank/status/1898223018763338127
Singapore says Asia now views U.S. as a ‘landlord seeking rent’ - The Japan Times
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/02/17/asia-pacific/politics/singapore-asia-us-landlord/
Asian perspectives of the U.S. have shifted from a country once perceived as a force of "moral legitimacy” to something akin to "a landlord seeking rent," Singapore’s defense chief said on the sidelines of an international security meeting.
Ng Eng Hen said in a round-table discussion at the Munich Security Conference that assumptions undertaken in the years after the end of World War II have fundamentally changed.
One example is that from the time of then-U.S. President John F. Kennedy’s inaugural address more than 60 years ago, the image of the U.S. was of a country that would not allow tyranny such as colonial control to be replaced by another form of tyranny. Now "the image has changed from liberator to great disruptor to a landlord seeking rent," according to a prepared text of his remarks posted on a government website over the weekend.
The remarks came after U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration blindsided historic NATO allies with plans to directly negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the future of the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. The fear for many officials gathered for the conference in Germany is that by dialing back support for Ukraine, Trump is inviting Putin to probe NATO’s willingness to defend the alliance’s eastern borders.
National security adviser Mike Waltz, meanwhile, said the U.S. deserves "payback" from Ukraine for its support against the Russian invasion and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy would be "very wise" to accept a minerals deal offered by the Trump team.
Zelenskyy has rejected a U.S. draft agreement that would give Washington access to critical minerals in the war-battered nation because it didn’t offer investments and sufficient protections.
In its first month, the new Trump administration has made clear it’s willing to quickly alter defense and economic policies that have been in place for decades. It’s a shift that has drawn in attention in Asia, where the U.S. has stationed tens of thousands of troops, as nations there seek to navigate persisting tensions between the U.S. and China.
Singapore, like much of Southeast Asia, has sought a middle path in an increasingly complicated geopolitical picture, seeking to balance ties with the U.S. as a major security partner and source of investment, and China, as one of its biggest trade partners.
Under previous President Joe Biden, the U.S. worked to form a lattice of security arrangements in the region as a counter to Chinese assertiveness in places such as the South China Sea. Another persistent security concern is China’s pledge to bring Taiwan under its control someday, by force if necessary.
Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting prioritizes ‘real’ independence from the US − but what does that mean and is it achievable?
https://theconversation.com/germanys-chancellor-in-waiting-prioritizes-real-independence-from-the-us-but-what-does-that-mean-and-is-it-achievable-250708
Germany’s presumptive new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, faces challenges both at home and overseas following his conservative alliance’s election victory on Feb. 23, 2025.
A strong showing from the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) – which Merz, in line with other mainstream German parties, refuses to countenance as a coalition party as part of an unofficial “firewall” against extremism – will make forming a functioning government tricky.
But in the moments after the election results, it was the future of the European Union and its relationship with America that was his immediate focus: “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA.”
To understand why that is such a concern for Germany now and what “real independence” from Washington means, The Conversation U.S. turned to Garret Martin, an expert on U.S.-Europe relations at American University, for answers.
What prompted Merz’s ‘real independence’ line?
Presumably it was a response to a series of recent announcements and actions by the Trump administration that have shocked the German political establishment. This includes the sudden revelation that the U.S. would negotiate directly with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, but seemingly without the Europeans or Ukrainians involved. That development went down like a lead balloon in Berlin, especially considering Germany’s significant financial support of Kyiv since 2022.
Moreover, the German establishment has also frowned at a series of recent declarations by members of the Trump administration. Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, in which he harshly criticized Europe for allegedly undermining freedom of expression, provoked clear pushback from German leaders. Trump, for his part, hardly endeared himself to his German allies when he denounced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a “dictator.”
India (8.3%) is the second largest importer of arms over the last 5 years (2019-2024). Ukraine (8.8%) is first. Pakistan (4.6%) 4th, according to SIPRI.
India's arms imports mainly from Russia, France and Israel.
Ukraine's from US, Germany and Poland.
Pakistan's from China, Netherlands and Turkey
https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2025/ukraine-worlds-biggest-arms-importer-united-states-dominance-global-arms-exports-grows-russian
https://indianexpress.com/article/trending/top-10-listing/top-10-largest-arms-importing-countries-2020-2024-indias-position-revealed-9880245/
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Chinese arms made up 81 per cent of Pakistan’s weapons imports in the past five years, as Islamabad buys more advanced systems from its long-standing Asian defence partner, according to data from Swedish think tank SIPRI.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3302515/china-supplied-81-pakistans-arms-imports-past-5-years-sipri-says
That was up 7 percentage points from the previous five-year period to 2019, when 74 per cent of Pakistan’s arms imports came from China, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute database shows.
The boost comes amid a huge push in China to improve self-reliance in its defence industry – from aircraft carriers to sixth-generation fighter jets – which has also seen it expand the range of weapons it can offer to its strategic partners.
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“The apparent willingness of China to supply or at least talk about supplying some of its more advanced weapons to Pakistan shows China’s trust in Pakistan,” said Siemon Wezeman, a senior arms transfers researcher at SIPRI.
China has been Pakistan’s primary arms supplier since the 1990s. But Pakistan’s tensions with India – especially since a series of border skirmishes broke out in 2016 – have prompted Islamabad to increase defence spending, and that has drawn it closer to Beijing.
Beijing avoids formal alliances but Wezeman said it could be seen as “Pakistan’s only real ‘ally’, the only one to depend on when dealing with India”.
At the same time, Pakistan plays a similar role for Beijing and is “the only one that at this moment could give China a secure access to a base on the Indian Ocean and near the Middle East”.
In April last year, China launched the first of eight Hangor II submarines to be delivered to Pakistan in a deal worth around US$5 billion – one of the most valuable military contracts China has signed.
According to the SIPRI database, some of Pakistan’s key orders in the past five years include the country’s first spy ship, the Rizwan, more than 600 VT-4 battle tanks, and 36 J-10CE 4.5-generation fighters.
The first delivery of multirole J-10CE fighter jets arrived in Pakistan in 2022, adding to its JF-17 fighters – a backbone model that makes up the bulk of Pakistan’s fleet.
The fourth-generation JF-17 was jointly developed by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group in a programme that dates back to 1999.
The Block III version of JF-17 – featuring an active electronically scanned array radar – was inducted by the Pakistan Air Force in 2023.
Song Zhongping, a military commentator and former PLA instructor, said China might also export its fifth-generation fighter jet, the J-35, “if Pakistan requests it”.
He said that since India was considering adding the American F-35 or Russian Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jets to its fleet, Pakistan was likely to be considering its options too.
China also delivered a range of surface-to-air missiles and defence systems to Pakistan between 2020 and 2024, according to SIPRI. They included a long-range HQ-9 system with around 70 missiles, some 200 medium-range LY-80s, and about 890 low-altitude portable FN-6 missiles.
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