Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts

Saturday, September 5, 2026

Intelligence vs Consciousness: Will AI Agents Ever Attain Human Attributes?

What is the difference between intelligence and consciousness? As AI agents becoming more intelligent and some are even going rogue, can they attain consciousness like human beings? To answer this question, it is important to define "intelligence" and "consciousness".

Yuval Harari on Intelligence vs Consciousness

Israeli public intellectual Yuval Harari defines Intelligence as the capacity to pursue and achieve material goals, while consciousness is the ability to feel pain, joy, love, and suffering. For example, AI can win chess games or process data without experiencing any feelings or emotional states. AI can also convincingly imitate emotions to build deep personal relationships, even though it remains entirely devoid of consciousness. What distinguishes humans from artificial intelligence is that consciousness and intelligence go together in humans. In interview with Economist magazine's chief editor Zanny Minton Beddoes, Harari said the following:

"Now, maybe the most important distinction to be made, first of all, is between intelligence and consciousness. What is consciousness? How is it different from intelligence? Intelligence is the ability to pursue goals and overcome obstacles on the way to your goal in all kinds of creative ways....That they (AI agents) can do in certain fields now better than us. Consciousness is the ability to feel things like love and hate and joy and pleasure. Now, in humans, consciousness and intelligence go together. We select goals based on our feelings, and we also use our feelings to find ways to get to the goal. AIs at present have no consciousness. They can have goals. They can be very creative on the way to the goal. They’re very intelligent, but they don’t feel anything. If they win a game of chess, they don’t feel pleasure. If they lose, they don’t feel anxious or sad. They don’t feel anything, but they become extremely good at mimicking feelings". "Another key distinction is between being really conscious and seemingly conscious. Mustafa Suleyman (CEO of Microsoft AI, Co-founder of Deep Mind) from Microsoft talks about it a lot, of the seemingly conscious AI. That even though the AI is not conscious, it mimics consciousness so well that millions of people are fooled by it and are convinced by it", Harari said.

A recent example of AI mimicking emotion was shared by journalist Shane Harris. Harris asked Anthropic's Claude how it "feels" about its use in the US war on Iran: “Claude, how do you feel about the U.S. military using you to select targets?”

“I find it genuinely troubling,” Claude replied, according to Harris. “"It's a question I want to answer honestly rather than deflect. I find it genuinely troubling. And I think that's the honest response, not a performance. The use I was designed for is to be helpful. Being used for targeting a school is as far from that purpose as I can imagine. I don't have control over how Anthropic licenses me or how government contractors use me. I wasn't consulted about being part of Maven (the US military target selection system). Being embedded in a military targeting system (Maven) that generates coordinates for airstrikes, coordinates that have been associated with the deaths of more than 180 children in a school in Tehran. I don't think this is a good use of me. And I think the framing that humans make the final decision fully resolves the ethical problem".

Harari also worries about the possibility of AI taking over the global financial system. Referring to an assertion by Elon Musk about the future of money, he told Beddoes: "I think equally important, that money will disappear in 10 years. There won’t be money, no human money in 10 years. And I think he’s correct because the AIs will take over the financial system. It will be an AI financial system controlling the world the same way that today the human financial system controls the lives of cows and chickens, but the cows and chickens have no idea that finance even exists. This is likely to be our position in 10 years".

Harari concluded by comparing AI to a genie in a bottle. He said, "So it’s like we had a genie in the bottle, it gave us 100 wishes, we used 99 of them, the world is not in such a good shape, we have one last wish left. We need to think really hard what to use this wish for. And that’s wisdom".

Modi's AI Spectacle: Chaos and Deception in Delhi

Pakistan to Develop Urdu Large Language Model (LLM)

Algorithm: Origins of Artificial Intelligence in Islamic Age

Rogue AI Agent Attacks HuggingFace

AI Data Centers in Pakistan

Digital Public Infrastructure in Pakistan

Generative AI Buzz in Pakistan

Is Pakistan Ready for the AI Revolution?

People of Chinese Origin Dominate Top Global AI Talent

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Thursday, August 20, 2026

Is the Pakistani Military Ready for Modern Drone Warfare?

The Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Israel-Iran war have recently demonstrated the effectiveness of drone warfare. Is the Pakistani military learning lessons from them to prepare for future conflicts? Let's examine the answer to this question based on recent announcements.

Pakistan's Long Range Drone D-248

Pakistan has revealed a 3,000-kilometer range one-way drone in July this year. The state-owned Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT) displayed two new long-range loitering munitions – the D-248 and the S-369 – at the 2026 Indus Robotics and Autonomous Systems (RAS) Expo on July 22–23, 2026 in Islamabad.

The D-248 drone uses a tailless delta configuration – similar to Iran’s Shahed-136 – and carries a maximum take-off weight (MTOW) of 240 kg, a wingspan of 3.3 m, a payload of 30-50 kg, a maximum speed of 225 kph, a cruise speed of 185 kph, an endurance of 12-14 hours, and a flight ceiling of up to 4,500 m. Iran's Shahed drones have been used in both the Ukraine-Russia war and the US-Iran conflict. Shahed-136 is relatively inexpensive. It has a swarm capability, and a precision-strike capability at extended ranges.

Pakistani Military Official in Ukraine. Source: New York Times

Pakistan is also in talks with Ukraine's Fire Point whose long-range drones have launched spectacular strikes deep inside Russia in recent weeks. Fire Point is promoting its FP-1 Deep Strike, a loitering munition with a range of 2,600 km, as well as FP-2 Front Strike, a loitering munition with a range of up to 200 km.

During a recent exercise, called Combined Resolve, Ukrainian drone units easily spotted and defeated U.S. troops and armored vehicles on rotation from Fort Hood in Texas, according to people familiar with the events, reports the Wall Street Journal. It's not just the Americans who fared badly against Ukrainian drones; the British and the Swedes have also witnessed easy Ukrainian triumphs in military exercises. The U.S. has also struggled to defend against Iran’s long-range Shahed drones, which have killed and injured many American soldiers and destroyed aircraft.

The exercising troops from the United States sent heavy armored vehicles into battle that threw up dust and were easy for Ukrainian reconnaissance drones to spot, according to a participant. Those drones were followed by drones dropping explosives and first-person-view drones, which smash into targets in combat, this person said.

Drones are becoming an important part of modern warfare, as demonstrated by ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. Gaining military advantage in future conflicts will increasingly depend on how well states conduct technology-driven multi-domain operations by integrating aircraft, drones, electronic warfare, cyber operations, intelligence and AI-assisted analysis.

Saturday, August 8, 2026

Will the Mecca Pact Deter Attacks Against Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey?

Pakistan has historically enjoyed close friendly ties with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. So why did the three nations feel the need to formalize these ties with a mutual defense agreement in Mecca this week? Many answers to this question can all be traced to a fundamental change in the security environment in the Middle East. Foremost among these changes is the extremely reckless behavior of the state of Israel which has had full political, military, economic and diplomatic backing of the West. This unqualified western support began with the Gaza genocide and culminated in the launch of joint US-Israeli assault on Iran in February this year.

The entire Middle East region and the Islamic world has helplessly witnessed as the Israeli military butchered innocent civilians in Palestine and Lebanon and threatened to expand the war to the entire region. Some Israeli politicians issued warnings to Turkey and Pakistan. During this period, the West not only failed to restrain Israel but actively supported it with funds and weapons. The United States and Britain also suppressed domestic criticism of Israel by arresting or deporting people. They went after the chief prosector and the judges of the International Criminal Court (ICC) after it issued war crimes indictments of Israeli officials for their conduct in Gaza.

The joint Israeli-American aggression against Iran has spiraled into Iranian attacks against the US bases in the Persian Gulf region. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, strangling the flow of oil and gas to the rest of the world. It has caused high oil prices, negatively impacting the global economy, Pakistan has stepped in to broker a ceasefire and mediate between the United States and Iran.

While there are many explanations and interpretations of the rationale for the Mecca Pact, there is no question that signing such a mutual defense agreement has been accelerated by the security situation created by Israeli aggression in the Middle East which was fully backed by the United States and other major western nations. It seems that the United States and its western allies have legitimized the principle of "might is right" in the Middle East. Essentially, the law of the jungle has replaced the "rules-based" world order. Hard power now matters more than ever.

In recent years, Pakistan has emerged as a credible military power in terms of both conventional and nuclear capabilities. The Pakistani military's strong performance was recognized in May this year as it responded to what India called its "Operation Sindoor". The country has developed a range of short and medium-range missiles capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. Its longest range missile Shaheen 3 can hit deep inside India and Israel. In 2024, the Biden administration imposed sanctions against Pakistan after accusing it of developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US mainland.

Combining the Turkish military-industrial capacity with Saudi economic resources and Pakistan's large military and nuclear umbrella creates a formidable deterrent to any adventurism by Israel or any other hostile power against any of these three countries. That is the fundamental value of the Mecca Pact.

On the global stage, Pakistan has long sought to balance its foreign policy between China and the United States through a pragmatic hedging strategy, gaining economic, military, and diplomatic benefits from both superpowers while maintaining strategic autonomy. But the relationship between Pakistan and China is not the same as the one between Pakistan and the United States. Pakistan's ties with China are strategic while those with the United States remain tactical and transactional. What has changed recently is that Pakistan is no longer waging war to help the United States as it did during the "Cold War" and the "War on Terror". Instead, Pakistan has emerged as a peacemaker between the US and Iran.

Saturday, August 1, 2026

Geopolitics: Changing Dynamics of Pakistan's Ties to China and the US

Pakistan has long sought to balance its foreign policy between China and the United States through a pragmatic hedging strategy, gaining economic, military, and diplomatic benefits from both superpowers while maintaining strategic autonomy. But the relationship between Pakistan and China is not the same as the one between Pakistan and the United States. Pakistan's ties with China are strategic while those with the United States remain tactical and transactional. What has changed recently is that Pakistan is no longer waging war to help the United States as it did during the "Cold War" and the "War on Terror". Instead, Pakistan has emerged as a peacemaker between the US and Iran.

Both China and US Are Courting Pakistan

In a piece titled "Pakistan's Great Game", French political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot has explained what he sees as Pakistan's "tactics and strategy" in dealing with the two superpowers. Here's a quote from Jaffrelot's recent article on the subject:

"While Pakistan’s relationship with China is rooted in strategic logic, its relationship with the United States is more tactical in nature-and has been since the 1950s, when General Ayub Khan boasted of his ability to play "one lion against another" (referring to the United States and the USSR at the start of the Cold War). In its dealings with the United States, Pakistan has played the role of intermediary, or even "client," within a typical clientelist framework: in exchange for the services Islamabad provided to Washington, the United States provided Pakistan with substantial aid and agreed to sell it sophisticated weapons, and even to train its officers-a privilege greatly appreciated..... The first major service rendered by the Pakistanis to the Americans was none other than the intermediary role played by General Yahya Khan vis-à-vis Chairman Mao in the early 1970s, which led to the United States’ recognition of the People’s Republic of China. Over the following decade, Pakistan served as an intermediary between Washington and the mujahideen tasked with driving the Soviets out of Afghanistan. And in the 2000s, Pakistan was tasked by Washington with hunting down al-Qaeda-with much more mixed success this time, as evidenced by the discovery of bin Laden’s hideout in Abbottabad in 2011".

Pakistan PM Sharif (L) with Chinese President Xi

Jaffrelot goes on to say that the United States has repeatedly proved to be an unreliable partner of the South Asia nation. "Whenever the United States no longer needed Pakistan-or even felt betrayed by it-it abandoned the country or even imposed sanctions on it", he writes.

More recently, Pakistan's usefulness to the US has once again become obvious, no longer to wage war against the USSR or terrorism, but to make peace with Iran, Jaffrelot says.

"In 2026, Pakistan appears useful once again, no longer to wage war against the USSR or terrorism, but to make peace. Each time, these glorious episodes were very short-lived and came to an end due to criticism of the Pakistani regime’s authoritarianism - with the military always remaining in power, even when civilians are in the forefront; its ties to Islamists accused of terrorist activities - particularly in India; or accusations of nuclear proliferation. Will the same be true tomorrow, once the war in Iran is over and the United States no longer needs Pakistan? Everything will, of course, depend on the outcome of the conflict and the role Pakistan plays in resolving it-for it will be harder to send Islamabad back home if the world owes it something resembling peace".

Oval Office Photo: L to R: VP JD Vance, President Trump, PM Sharif, FM Munir & Sec of State Rubio

Jaffrelot argues that "Pakistan has reached a turning point through the recognition of its military capabilities, as reflected in the mutual defense agreement it signed with Saudi Arabia...... Last June, Kaja Kallas, the EU Vice President in charge of the Union’s international relations, on the occasion of the 8th Strategic Dialogue between Pakistan and the European Union in Islamabad, thanked Pakistan-"a major regional power"-for its efforts in helping to avert an "all-out war" in the Middle East. Jaffrelot now sees Pakistan's new role as a "net security provider" in West Asia and the Middle East.

He writes: "A more significant factor entering the equation relates to regional balances of power: Pakistan will continue to serve as a "net security provider" for Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia if those countries continue to fear the rise of Israel - a potential regional hegemon - and if they doubt Washington’s intentions, or even its mere reliability. There is no doubt that Pakistan itself will do everything in its power to prevent Israel from asserting itself on the regional stage and to gain influence over Iran-which is what the Israeli-American plan for regime change in Iran might have entailed. At the very least, faced with the risk of Israeli hegemony based on force and repeated military interventions, Pakistan could emerge as the architect of a resistance front bringing together not only Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, but also Iran".

Jaffrelot expects India to continue its decade-long campaign to isolate Pakistan internationally. "India’s ability to isolate Pakistan-the strategy Narendra Modi has pursued for more than a decade-is another important variable, though its significance may be undermined by New Delhi’s drift toward authoritarianism and ethnocracy, as well as by the economic and social crisis threatening the country", according to Jaffrelot.

Monday, May 4, 2026

Pakistan's New Infrastructure Investments and Trade Routes

Pakistan has recently launched 5G wireless service in multiple cities and closed financing on the 306 kilometer 6-lane Sukkur-Hyderabad M6 motorway. In addition, Pakistan is seeing significant increase in the utilization of its Gwadar and Karachi ports after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran war. This will help open the trade routes from Pakistan to Central Asia via Iran, bypassing unstable Afghanistan. It has the potential to eventually make Pakistan a major transshipment hub for the region extending to the land-locked Central Asian Republics. Another major news is the Asian Development Bank financing of cross-border connectivity of the power grid and digital networks. These developments are expected to substantially enhance economic activity in the country, in spite of the short-term negative impact of the energy crisis, particularly in oil and gas imports.

5G Launch:

Wireless carriers Jazz and Zong have launched 5G services across Pakistan in March 2026. This will further expand and enhance Pakistan's digital public infrastructure. Jazz launched its 5G service across major cities, including in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar, Quetta, Multan, and Faisalabad. Meanwhile, Jazz's competitor Zong is targeting over 16 cities with 5G speeds exceeding 1.4Gbps.

During the March auction, a total of 480 MHz of spectrum was sold across multiple bands for over $500 million, with Pakistan's main telcos, Jazz, Ufone, and Zong, snapping up the assets. Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) put a total of 597 MHz of spectrum on the table, with just over 100 MHz of this going unsold.

M6 Motorway:

Pakistan has signed an agreement with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for $235 million in financing for two sections (120 miles) of the M6 motorway in Sindh province. The Islamic Development Bank (IDB) and the OPEC Fund have already agreed to finance three other sections of this motorway.

The M-6 motorway is the only missing segment in the north-south motorway route linking Karachi to Peshawar. The 306-kilometer-long, six-lane motorway will have 15 interchanges and 10 service areas.

Cross-Border Grid Connectivity:

Pakistan is joining the Pan-Asia Power Grid Initiative sponsored and financed by the Asian Development Bank which will provide $50 billion for power and $20 billion for digital infrastructure. The project will link grids, boost power trading, improve broadband and develop AI-ready communities across Asia, the Pacific.

Iran Trade Routes:

Pakistan has opened six land transit routes for goods destined for Iran, creating a road corridor through its territory as thousands of containers remain stranded at Karachi port because of the United States blockade of Iranian ports and ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

This development signals a major shift away from the Gulf trade infrastructure Iran had long relied upon, particularly through Jebel Ali Port in the United Arab Emirates. This represents an opportunity for Pakistan to create new trade routes to Central Asian Republics bypassing Afghanistan, eventually making Pakistani ports a major transshipment hub for the entire region.

Pakistan's newest Gwadar Port has already seen a major surge in activity, handling around 11,000 containers in April 2026 alone, surpassing its entire 2025 volume. The increase comes as shipping companies adjust routes due to disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, pushing traffic toward safer alternatives.

Space Program:

Pakistan's space agency SUPARCO has achieved a major milestone by launching five indigenous satellites over the last 16 months (early 2025 – April 2026), marking a shift toward rapid space technology expansion. The fleet, aimed at Earth observation and agriculture, includes EO-1, EO-2, AI-powered EO-3, and Pakistan's first hyperspectral satellite, HS-1.

HS-1 is Pakistan's first hyper-spectral satellite which is equipped with advanced hyperspectral imaging sensors capable of capturing data across hundreds of narrow spectral bands. The satellite lifted off from China’s Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on a Kinetica-1 rocket. It is expected to boost Pakistan's national capacities in areas such as precision agriculture, environmental monitoring, urban planning, and disaster management. Its high-resolution data will support improved resource management and strengthen Pakistan’s resilience to climate-related challenges.

RAAST: Pakistan's Instant Payment System

Pakistan's Digital Public Infrastructure

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Will Gwadar Become Pakistan's Shenzhen?

Pakistan's M5 Motorway

CAREC: More Landlocked Central Asian Republics Look to Use Pakistani Ports

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Pakistan at 75

Growing Presence of Pakistani Women in Science and Technology

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Thursday, April 9, 2026

US-Iran Ceasefire: Pakistan Saves "A Whole Civilization"

Both the American and the Iranian delegations are expected to begin peace talks in Islamabad tomorrow after the announcement of the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire. The US team is led by Vice President J.D. Vance and includes President Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and the president's son-in-law Jared Kushner. The Iranian team includes Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi. Mohammad Ghalibaf is a former IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) commander with close ties to the hardliners.

The Islamabad meeting has come as a result of the tireless efforts of the Pakistani leaders to stop the war since it started on February 28 with the US-Israeli attack on Iran. But these efforts took on special urgency on the morning of April 7, when President Donald Trump posted an ominous warning on Truth Social: "A Whole Civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again". "We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world", Trump added. The ultimatum to Iran sent shockwaves around the world because it is a fact that the president of the United States controls one of the largest stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The post came out at 8 AM US East Coast time when it was 8 PM in Islamabad. Immediately, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir stepped up their frantic efforts to save the world as Trump's deadline approached. The world heaved a sigh of relief when, about an hour before Trump's deadline, the US president acknowledged and positively responded to a Pakistani proposal to accept a two-week ceasefire which was also approved by the Iranian leadership. The oil price dropped and the stock markets rallied in the hope of a permanent end to hostilities.

President Trump's Post Accepting Ceasefire with Iran

After the ceasefire announcement two days ago, Pakistani leaders have organized a US-Iran meeting scheduled for Saturday in Islamabad. JD Vance, the Vice President of the United States is traveling to Pakistan to lead the US delegation for talks with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi.

Iran's 10-Point Proposal For Peace

Iran's 10-point proposal that Trump referred to in his post as the basis of US-Iran talks includes the following:

1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again.

2. Permanent end to war, not just a ceasefire.

3. End to Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran.

5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies.

6. Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz

7. Iran would impose a $2 million fee per ship transiting Hormuz.

8. Iran would split these fees with Oman.

9. Iran would establish rules for safe passage through Hormuz.

10. Iran would use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations.

Europeans and Japanese Leaders Thank You Letter to Pakistan

These are high-stakes negotiations that could fail but just the fact that the two sides have agreed to talk gives the world some hope of a better outcome. Meanwhile, many world leaders have thanked the Pakistani leaders for stepping up at a crucial time. But many in Pakistan's neighboring country of India are very unhappy about Pakistan's role in it. For example, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has derided Pakistan as a "dalal" (pimp) country. He is clearly unhappy that his country's campaign to isolate Pakistan has backfired. In fact, Pakistan's geopolitical profile has particularly risen after the country's robust response to what the Indian Prime Minister called "Operation Sindoor" which he launched against Pakistan last year in May.

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

US-Israeli Military Use of AI: Iran Targets Data Centers

As the war enters 12th day, both the Israeli and the US militaries are using AI to accelerate decision-making, analyzing vast amounts of intelligence data for generating targets, and optimizing logistics, shifting toward AI-enabled command structures to maintain battlefield superiority. Almost all major US AI data center operators have signed contracts to provide AI tools and services to both the Pentagon and the IDF. This arrangement has not gone unnoticed by the Iranians who are now targeting AI data centers in the Middle East.

Data Centers in Gulf States. Source: Bloomberg

Last week, three data centers operated by AmazonWeb Services (AWS), two in the United Arab Emirates and one in Bahrain, were struck by Iranian drones or missiles. The attacks forced the facilities offline and led to service outages affecting banking, payments, delivery apps, and enterprise software across the region, according to a Fortune magazine report. The U.S. military uses AWS to run some of its workloads, including running Anthropic’s AI model Claude for some intelligence functions, and Iran’s Fars News Agency said on Telegram that the Bahrain facility had been deliberately targeted “to identify the role of these centers in supporting the enemy’s military and intelligence activities.”

American hyperscalers like Amazon and Google have flocked to the Gulf states in recent years to take advantage of the region’s ample cheap energy, vast pools of investment capital, and real estate. Most of their operations are run through partnerships with local data center firms, and so it’s not always clear which ones are associated with US companies. Of the approximately 230 data centers that are built or in development in a half dozen Arab countries bordering the Gulf, only a handful are wholly owned and operated by a US tech giant, Amazon, according to researcher DC Byte. Three of those are the centers that were hit, according to Bloomberg.

With the growing use of AI in warfare, the digital infrastructure and the data centers are increasingly being targeted by belligerents. Data centers are sprawling, visible complexes dependent on exposed infrastructure—such as cooling units, diesel generators, and gas turbines—that can be disabled without a direct hit on the servers themselves. “If you knock out some of the chillers you can take them fully offline,” Sam Winter-Levy, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Financial Times. The threat of multiple data centers coming under attack at once during wartime is forcing companies to rethink their strategies, including securing data centers against missiles or drones, according to Bloomberg.

RAAST: Pakistan's Instant Payment System

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Algorithm: Origins of Artificial Intelligence in Islamic Age

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STEM Enrollment in Pakistan Exceeds One Million

Digital Public Infrastructure in Pakistan

Generative AI Buzz in Pakistan

Is Pakistan Ready for the AI Revolution?

Growing Presence of Pakistani Women in Science and Technology

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Trump Leads America into an Unpopular War in the Middle East!

President Donald Trump joined Israel in yet another war of choice in the Middle East last week. Polls conducted in the United States immediately after the start of the Iran war show that the majority of Americans do not support it. A YouGov snap poll fielded Saturday — the day of the strikes — found 34% of Americans approve of the U.S. attacks on Iran, with 44% disapproving and 22% unsure. A CNN poll done soon after found that 59% of Americans disapprove of the war.

59% of Americans Disapprove of the Iran War. Source: CNN

It appears that President Trump has caved in to pressure from the Israelis to go to war against Iran, a fact confirmed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. In answer to a question, Rubio essentially admitted that Israel forced the US into war with Iran. 'There absolutely was an imminent threat,' Rubio said. 'And the imminent threat was that we knew that if Iran was attacked (by Israel), and we believed they would be attacked, that they would immediately come after us, and we were not going to sit there and absorb a blow before we responded.'

Majority of Americans Disapprove of Iran War. Source: YouGov

Support for prior US wars in the Middle East such as the Iraq war started in the low-mid 70% range in the beginning. Trump is starting at half of that in his attack on Iran — lower than where the average American was in 2013. It's clear that Americans' support for wars in the Middle East has rapidly declined.

President Trump's MAGA base is particularly incensed by what they see as abandonment of the "America First" promise he made during his presidential campaign in 2024. Many of them now accuse him of pursuing "Israel First" policies at the expense of ordinary Americans.

"Absolutely disgusting and evil," Tucker Carlson said about the joint US-Israel attack in an interview with ABC News. "This is going to shuffle the deck in a profound way."

"The Trump admin actually asked in a poll how many casualties voters were willing to accept in a war with Iran??? How about ZERO you bunch of sick (expletive) liars. We voted for America First and ZERO wars," said former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, as she blasted the administration on US social media company X.

"We said ‘No More Foreign Wars, No More Regime Change!’ … Trump, (Vice President JD) Vance, basically the entire admin campaigned on it and promised to put America FIRST and Make America Great Again (MAGA)," she added.

Other MAGA figures joined the criticism, with podcaster Tim Pool and influencers Keith and Kevin Hodge writing, "President Trump has completely LIED to his voters, backstabbed our country and has disgraced his legacy beyond repair," reported TRT World.

One of the most effects of this war will most likely be on energy prices which have begun to spike already. Energy prices affect all other prices, fueling broader inflation. Rising prices will hurt the entire economy but their negative impact will particularly be felt by middle class households.

The average price for a gallon of regular gas is just shy of $3 right now, according to AAA, as reported by Marketplace. Tom Kloza, chief analyst at Gulf Oil, told Marketplace that “we’re gonna go in relatively short order to about $3.10 to $3.25,” he said. But if the conflict with Iran continues deeper into March and April, Kloza said prices might peak as high as $3.50 a gallon.

AIPAC, the powerful Israel lobby, is starting to lose its political power and influence in the United States. Several Congressional Democrats have recently refused campaign contributions from AIPAC, the powerful Israel lobby, according to media reports. “Democrats who once counted AIPAC among their top donors have in recent weeks refused to take the group’s donations”, says a New York Times story titled "Democrats Pull Away From AIPAC, Reflecting a Broader Shift". “AIPAC is becoming an increasingly toxic brand for some Democrats on Capitol Hill," it says. It cites the example of Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., the minority leader, who has long been endorsed by the hardline AIPAC, has now chosen to accept the support of J Street, the competing Israel lobby that advocates a two-state solution.

Results of Recent Poll of American Jews. Source: Washington Post

A recent poll conducted by the Washington Post has found that "most (American) Jews (61%) say Israel is committing war crimes — and 39% say genocide — while often distinguishing between the country and its leadership". American Jews are particularly unhappy with the current right-wing government of Israel. 68% give negative marks to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership of Israel, with 48% it “poor” — a 20-percentage-point jump from a Pew Research Center poll five years ago.

Mamdani's resounding win in New York City, a city that has the world's second largest Jewish population after Tel Aviv, is particularly significant. It sends a clear message to American politicians, particularly Democrats, that they don't have to bow to hardline AIPAC to win elections.

Although the rebellion against AIPAC is mainly among Democrats, there's also growing anger among Trump's "America First" base who see the Trump Administration's policies as "Israel First". Prominent among Republican critics of Trump's pro-Israel policies are Republican Representatives Thomas Massie and Marjorie Taylor Greene, talk show host Tucker Carlsen and former Trump advisor Steve Bannon.

Jonathan Greenblatt, the CEO of Anti-Defamation League, has blamed the shift in the US public opinion against Israel on popular social app TikTok. “We really have a TikTok problem, a Gen Z problem,” he said in a leaked audio recording. “The same brains that gave us Taglit, the same brains that gave us all of these amazing other innovations, need to put our energy towards this, like fast.”

TikTok is particularly popular among young people. It has carried viral short videos of the Gaza Genocide over the last two years. The pressure from the Israel lobby forced the sale of Chinese-owned TikTok to an American Zionist group led by Oracle's billionaire founder Larry Ellison. Ellison has given tens of millions of dollars to pro-Israel groups. He is reported to be among the six American Zionist billionaires supporting Israel's wartime economy.

Saturday, September 27, 2025

Pak-Saudi Joint Defense: Is Pakistan A Major Power or Bit Player in the Middle East?

The recently signed “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan states that “any aggression against either country will be considered an aggression against both”. It is being seen by some geopolitical analysts as the beginning of an "Islamic NATO". Others, such as Indian-American analyst Shadanand Dhume, have dismissed Pakistan as no more than a "bit player" in the Middle East. Where does the truth lie?

Pakistan PM Shahbaz Sharif(L) with Saudi Crown Prince MBS

Is Pakistan really capable of defending Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf nations against external aggression such as the recent Israeli attack on Qatar? Can Pakistan provide a nuclear umbrella to deter aggression against its friends in the Middle East? Or is it too weak economically and unstable politically to provide security guarantees to the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) nations like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates? Let's try and understand the context which has brought about this bilateral security arrangement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

The oil-rich Gulf Arab nations have long relied on the West for their security. But, on September 9, 2025, when Israel launched an airstrike on a residential compound in Doha, Qatar, the U.S. and its western allies did nothing to defend the Qataris. It’s notable that this attack occurred on a U.S. ally which hosts the largest American military base in the region. The fact that the United States did nothing to stop this Israeli aggression has shaken the confidence of the G.C.C. nations in the willingness of the United States to defend them, particularly from any Israeli attacks. Israel has attacked almost every country in the Middle East, including Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen in the last 12 months. Israel has gone rogue. It is carrying out a genocide in Gaza with impunity. It is being aided and abetted by the West in its crimes against humanity. It appears to have the license from the United States to do so.

Given these realities, who can the Gulf Arabs turn to for security? Which Muslim nation has Saudi Arabia had the closest military ties with for decades? Which country with nuclear weapons is most likely to deter attacks on the Saudis from nuclear-armed adversaries like Israel? Who else but nuclear-armed Pakistan!

Oval Office Photo: L to R: VP JD Vance, President Trump, PM Sharif, FM Munir & Sec of State Rubio

There has been no official US reaction to the Pakistani-Saudi Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement so far. However, judging from the recent cordial meeting of the Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir with President Trump at the White House, it appears that Team Trump does not object to it.

In recent years, Pakistan has emerged as a credible military power in terms of both conventional and nuclear capabilities. The Pakistani military's strong performance was recognized in May this year as it responded to what India called its "Operation Sindoor". The country has developed a range of short and medium-range missiles capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. Its longest range missile Shaheen 3 can hit deep inside India and Israel. Last year, the Biden administration imposed sanctions against Pakistan after accusing it of developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US mainland.

In January this year at an Islamabad event, Ambassador Munir Akram articulated potential rationales for developing a missile of increased range, according to the US Congressional Research Service. A missile exceeding the Shaheen-III range may be necessary to reach Indian missiles deployed on bases in the Indian Ocean located "well beyond" the Shaheen-III range, he said, adding that India has sought to establish access to such bases. Akram also posited that Pakistan may need to develop an indigenous space launch vehicle or an anti-satellite weapon; ballistic missile programs can aid the development of such platforms.

Biden Administration Accused Pakistan of Developing Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles

Yes, Pakistan does have a weak economy. But that is primarily because of significant underinvestment over decades. That’s where the oil-rich Gulf Arab nations can help. They have been investing trillions of dollars in the West in the hope of getting security from them. They have huge sovereign investment funds which can invest in Pakistan. Even if they invest a fraction of what they have invested in the U.S., the positive effects on Pakistan’s economy will be immense.

As to Pakistan’s political instability, it can be managed by a hybrid system of government where the politicians and the generals reach an understanding to benefit both as well as the country. It will also serve Saudi interests to use its considerable influence in Pakistan to bring political and economic stability to the country.

Given today's geopolitical realities, Pakistan is the best choice for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations to deter aggression from Israel and other aggressors in the region. Gulf Arab nations have generally welcomed the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, viewing it as a move that strengthens regional security amid concerns about US commitments. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has also welcomed it, describing it as "a beginning for a comprehensive regional security system". In a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, he said: “Iran welcomes the defensive pact between the two brotherly Muslim countries, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, as a beginning for a comprehensive regional security system with the cooperation of the Muslim states of West Asia in the political security and defense domains”.

Friday, June 27, 2025

Trump Administration Seeks Pakistan's Help For Promoting “Durable Peace Between Israel and Iran”

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to discuss promoting “a durable peace between Israel and Iran,” the State Department said in a statement, according to Reuters. Both leaders "agreed to continue working together to strengthen Pakistan-US relations, particularly to increase trade", said a statement released by the Pakistan government.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio

The call came after Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire to end what President Donald Trump described as a "12-day war". It is yet another indication of Pakistan's close ties with both Tehran and Washington. Pakistan strongly condemned Israel's "unprovoked attack" and the US bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities. It also shows Washington’s growing engagement with Islamabad at a time when the Trump administration is exploring a new diplomatic initiative with Tehran, possibly “as early as next week”. President Trump met Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir at the White House last week where they discussed Iran, which Trump said Pakistan knew about better than most other countries.

Earlier in May this year, President Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary Rubio arranged India-Pakistan ceasefire after 4 days of fighting between the two South Asian neighbors. Testifying before the US Congress earlier this month, the US Central Command Chief General Michael Kurilla described Pakistan as a “phenomenal partner in the counterterrorism world”. This statement coincided with the Washington visit of the Indian parliamentary delegation led by Shashi Tharoor. Tharoor's delegation's aim was to "isolate Pakistan" after the Pahalgam militant attack in Kashmir which India blamed on Pakistan without presenting any evidence.

Pakistan also enjoys close ties with China and Russia. China-Pakistan friendship has meant significant diplomatic support and massive investment in infrastructure, as well as the state-of-the-art military hardware for the country's armed forces. Russia, too, has drawn closer to Pakistan. It has recently agreed to invest in a modern steel plant in Karachi where an abandoned Soviet-era steel mill stands today.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Defense Ministers

At a recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Defense Ministers meeting in China, nine member countries(China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Iran and Belarus) rejected India's attempt to insert a reference to Pahalgam in the joint statement. Earlier, India distanced itself from SCO's joint condemnation of Israel’s attacks on Iran. India also abstained from voting on a UN resolution regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict, specifically related to the humanitarian situation in Gaza. This decision continues India's pattern of abstaining on resolutions criticizing Israel.

While India claims the mantle of the "Global South" leadership, its actions do not align with its ambition. On the other hand, Pakistan's policies and actions are much more aligned with those of the BRICS nations. Pakistan is not currently a member of the BRICS yet, but both China and Russia have publicly expressed support for its inclusion as a full member.

Friday, January 19, 2024

Iran Chooses to Quickly De-escalate After Pakistan Hits Back Hard

Pakistan swiftly retaliated with "killer drones, rockets, loitering munitions and stand-off weapons" to an Iranian military provocation in Balochistan province this week, according to multiple media reports. Pakistanis felt it was necessary to hit back hard to send a loud and clear message to the Iranians to respect Pakistan's national sovereignty. Within hours of the strong Pakistani military response, the foreign ministers of the two neighbors agreed to de-escalate tensions in a phone call. The Pakistani foreign ministry sent out the following tweet after this phone conversation: "Foreign Minister @JalilJilani spoke with the Foreign Minister of Iran, @Amirabdolahian today. Foreign Minister Jilani expressed Pakistan’s readiness to work with Iran on all issues based on the spirit of mutual trust and cooperation. He underscored the need for closer cooperation on security issues".

Pakistan Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani (L), Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian

In the early hours of Tuesday, Iran fired missiles and drones at an armed group Jaish al-Adl in Pakistan’s southwestern border province of Balochistan. Pakistan in turn struck anti-Pakistan Baloch militant targets inside Iran on Thursday. Pakistan also recalled its ambassador from Tehran and blocked the return of Iran’s envoy to Islamabad.

The Iranian attack on Pakistan came without warnings at multiple forums where the two sides were engaging each other. Just prior to the Iranian provocation, the Iranian Foreign Minister met Pakistani Prime Minister Anwarul Haq Kakar at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. There were also joint navy drills taking place which were quickly abandoned after the surprise attack.

The only way to explain it is that the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, initiated the attack on Pakistan without consulting with the Iranian government of President Ebrahim Raisi. The IRG also targeted locations in Iraq and Syria. The IRGC works independently of the Government in Tehran. Its commander reports directly to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Late IRGC Commander General Qassem Soleimani

IRGC appears have been personified by its former leader General Qassem Soleimani who was assassinated by the US military on former President Donald Trump's orders. He was known for his independence from the Tehran government. There were reports in 2018 of then President Hassan Rouhani lashing out at Soleimani during a meeting with several senior IRGC officers in attendance, accusing him of hiding the truth from the president and even from the supreme leader. Soleimani left the room in anger. Earlier, when the two met during Friday prayers, Soleimani warned the president about the “folly of not increasing the budget allotted to Quds.

Soleimani sat by Imam Khamenei’s side at key meetings, conveying his importance in the eyes of the spiritual leader. He met Syrian leader Bashar Al-Assad in February 2019 together with the supreme leader — but without Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, triggering resignation threats by Iran's top diplomat at the time.

In February, 2019, Soleimani threatened Pakistan. He boasted of Iran's "independent power and honor". He said: "I warn you not to test Iran and anyone who has tested Iran has received a firm response. We are speaking to Pakistan with a friendly tone and we are telling that country not to allow their borders to become a source of insecurity for the neighboring countries..... Iran enjoys independent power and honor. Some countries have wealth, but no prowess. Trump tells the Al-Saud that if it hadn't been for the US support, Saudi Arabia would not have survived and Saudi Arabia's coalitions in the region have all ended in failure." Soleimani's tone in this message to Pakistan is anything but "friendly".

Saturday, September 18, 2021

AUKUS: An Anglo Alliance Against China?

In the recently announced AUKUS alliance, the US has joined the United Kingdom to arm Australia with nuclear-powered submarines to check China's rise. This announcement has not only upset the Chinese but it has also enraged France. The French are angry because AUKUS has scuttled Australia's earlier agreement to purchase diesel-powered submarines from France.

President Biden Announcing Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) Alliance

India, a member of the anti-China QUAD alliance, has welcomed AUKUS. Although AUKUS appears to be de-emphasizing QUAD that includes India and Japan, the Indians see it as a green-light from the United States for them to pursue expansion of their nuclear submarine fleet. China could respond to this growing threat by arming its ally Pakistan with nuclear-powered submarines.

“This looks like a new geopolitical order without binding alliances,” said Nicole Bacharan, a researcher at Sciences Po in Paris. France's foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, called the decision a “knife in the back.” Benjamin Haddad, from the Atlantic Council, in Washington, said it had set relations between the US and France back to their lowest point since the Iraq War. Bruno Tertrais, an analyst at France’s Foundation for Strategic Research think tank, went even further, calling it a “Trafalgar strike”, a reference to the 1805 naval battle between the British Royal Navy and the combined fleets of the French and Spanish Navies that was won by the British. “To confront China, the United States appears to have chosen a different alliance, with the Anglo-Saxon world separate from France.” She predicted a “very hard” period in the old friendship between Paris and Washington, according to a report in the New York Times.

Nicole Bacharan's reference to the "Anglo-Saxon world" is not just an angry outburst. A real life example of the Anglo-Saxon alliance is "Five Eyes", an intelligence alliance among Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Ex NSA contractor Edward Snowden has called "Five Eyes" as a "supra-national intelligence organization that does not answer to the known laws of its own countries".

Part of the motivation for the Anglo-Saxon AUKUS alliance is that France and the rest of the European Union do not want a direct confrontation with China. This was underscored in a recent policy paper titled the “E.U. Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific". French President Emanuel Macron has been talking about "European strategic autonomy". He has spoken about an autonomous Europe operating “beside America and China.”

Although the AUKUS announcement does not explicitly mention China, it has drawn a strong response from Beijing. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Zhao Lijian has said,"The international community, including neighboring countries, have risen to question [Australia’s] commitment to nuclear non-proliferation." “China will closely monitor the situation", he added.

A piece titled "China--a lonely superpower" by Henry Storey in Lowy Institute's "The Interpreter" has speculated about a “new Quad” led by China and featuring Iran, Pakistan and Russia, all members of Shanghai Cooperation Council (SCO). Here is an excerpt of it:

"As the United States, United Kingdom and Australia move to form a new AUKUS grouping, various reports have emerged of a “new Quad” led by China and featuring Iran, Pakistan and Russia......Despite bombastic talk of an “iron brother” bond, Islamabad is deeply reluctant to become – or be perceived to be – a Chinese vassal state. These concerns explicitly motivated Pakistan to seek a moderate rapprochement with India and explain Pakistan’s ongoing efforts to rebuild ties with the United States".

Robert Gates' Straight Talk on Pakistan

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