Pakistan swiftly retaliated with "killer drones, rockets, loitering munitions and stand-off weapons" to an Iranian military provocation in Balochistan province this week, according to multiple media reports. Pakistanis felt it was necessary to hit back hard to send a loud and clear message to the Iranians to respect Pakistan's national sovereignty. Within hours of the strong Pakistani military response, the foreign ministers of the two neighbors agreed to de-escalate tensions in a phone call. The Pakistani foreign ministry sent out the following tweet after this phone conversation: "Foreign Minister @JalilJilani spoke with the Foreign Minister of Iran, @Amirabdolahian today. Foreign Minister Jilani expressed Pakistan’s readiness to work with Iran on all issues based on the spirit of mutual trust and cooperation. He underscored the need for closer cooperation on security issues".
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| Pakistan Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani (L), Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian |
In the early hours of Tuesday, Iran fired missiles and drones at an armed group Jaish al-Adl in Pakistan’s southwestern border province of Balochistan. Pakistan in turn struck anti-Pakistan Baloch militant targets inside Iran on Thursday. Pakistan also recalled its ambassador from Tehran and blocked the return of Iran’s envoy to Islamabad.
The Iranian attack on Pakistan came without warnings at multiple forums where the two sides were engaging each other. Just prior to the Iranian provocation, the Iranian Foreign Minister met Pakistani Prime Minister Anwarul Haq Kakar at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. There were also joint navy drills taking place which were quickly abandoned after the surprise attack.
The only way to explain it is that the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, initiated the attack on Pakistan without consulting with the Iranian government of President Ebrahim Raisi. The IRG also targeted locations in Iraq and Syria. The IRGC works independently of the Government in Tehran. Its commander reports directly to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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| Late IRGC Commander General Qassem Soleimani |
IRGC appears have been personified by its former leader General Qassem Soleimani who was assassinated by the US military on former President Donald Trump's orders. He was known for his independence from the Tehran government. There were reports in 2018 of then President Hassan Rouhani lashing out at Soleimani during a meeting with several senior IRGC officers in attendance, accusing him of hiding the truth from the president and even from the supreme leader. Soleimani left the room in anger. Earlier, when the two met during Friday prayers, Soleimani warned the president about the “folly of not increasing the budget allotted to Quds.
Soleimani sat by Imam Khamenei’s side at key meetings, conveying his importance in the eyes of the spiritual leader. He met Syrian leader Bashar Al-Assad in February 2019 together with the supreme leader — but without Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, triggering resignation threats by Iran's top diplomat at the time.
In February, 2019, Soleimani threatened Pakistan. He boasted of Iran's "independent power and honor". He said: "I warn you not to test Iran and anyone who has tested Iran has received a firm response. We are speaking to Pakistan with a friendly tone and we are telling that country not to allow their borders to become a source of insecurity for the neighboring countries..... Iran enjoys independent power and honor. Some countries have wealth, but no prowess. Trump tells the Al-Saud that if it hadn't been for the US support, Saudi Arabia would not have survived and Saudi Arabia's coalitions in the region have all ended in failure." Soleimani's tone in this message to Pakistan is anything but "friendly".
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12 comments:
One needs to remember that IRGC reports directly to Iranian clerical leadership and not to their elected government. As an ideological force, they operate separate from Iranian military which the clerical leadership distrusts. IRGC operates its own naval and air forces and even has a full fledged space program that is separate from that run by the Iranian space agency. In many ways, the relationship between Iran's clerical leadership and IRGC on the one hand with their elected government on the other parallels that between Pakistan's military establishment and the civilian setup. It is well known that Pakistan's establishment (led by tbe Army and the ISI) are a power unto itself and do not answer to the civilian "government". And that is one of the key dilemmas India has often faced while negotiating contentious issues like Kashmir with Pakistani side. Like the IRGC, Pakistan's "establishment" has its own interests to safeguard that is separate from the views of its elected civilian setup. If one wants to normalize relations, the other doesn't. If one wants to resume trade, the other doesn't. They have never been on the "same page" in recent times except during the Musharraf years.
Aside from this, the cross border strikes by Iran and counter strikes by Pakistan lays bare a reality about Pakistan's current geo-political predicament in the region. The Pakistani establishment's decades old policy of funding and aiding jihadi groups on its soil has not enabled it to achieve any of its strategic objectives and has only served to undermine Pakistan's own security. Funding, arming and infiltrating LeT, JeM, HuM, TRF etc into Kashmir has not helped Pakistan to gain Kashmir or even weaken India's position and force it to come to negotiating table. Likewise, its policy of harbouring OBL and the Taliban leadership during the US occupation of Afghanistan has also boomeranged spectacularly on its northern frontier. And now the cross-border attacks by sectarian fundamentalist groups like Jaish al Adl operating from Pakistani soil has seriously undermined its relations with Iran as well. Under such a scenario, it wouldn't be surprising if India were to take advantage and strengthen its tactical relations with both Iran and Afghan Taliban to further to strike at Pakistan's interests from all three sides.
Lets face the reality. It is okay to have territorial disputes between nations (like Kashmir), but they need to be resolved through pragmatic negotiations and not through wars and proxy wars. Using non-state actors (like the aforementioned jihadi groups) as leverage will only serve to make the other party harden its stance and make a resolution difficult. Pakistan needs to clamp down on such cross-border jihadist groups cooperating from its soil, and ask India and Iran to reciprocate with regard to Baloch insurgents and TTP as well.
Believe me, even Modi govt with all its anti-Muslim rhetoric prefers peace with Pakistan since they face a greater, long-term threat from China. This was evident during the early years of his rule when he made many peace overtures to the then PM Nawaz Sharif. But do not expect Modi regime to bow down to Pakistani pressure tactics and concede ground. That would be unrealistic considering the power imbalances ground realities in the subcontinent - economic, political and geo-political.
The timing is key
The Iranian strikes happened when Jaishankar was in Tehran and as per rumors AFTER his meeting was over
At the same time the Iranian FM was meeting Pakistan PM in WEF
It was a part of a trinity of missile attacks by IRCGC,in a show of force and messaging !
Message 1 - Response to Soleimani Shrine bombing !
Message 2 - Message to Israel - that IRGC is ready for war !
SO THERE IS NO IRAN-PAKISTAN WAR HERE ! Just Persian messaging !
What is Jaish Al Adl ? It is Jundallah ! Pakistan is a natural port as Jaish are Sunnis fighting for Sistan which borders Baloch. Baloch tribes are Sunni !So there is no threat either nation !
Jundallalh has always been funded and aided by Mossad and the killings of Iranian Nuke scientists are also Mossad work ! All part of routine !
Neither Iran nor Pakistan intercepted the missiles or PAF,as there is NO THREAT PERCEPTION, from either nation !
Whether IRCGC did the raid based on IAF case study in Balakot,is a moot point ! IT MAKES SENSE FOR PAF TO HAVE SOME ADS BATERIES ON THE IRAN BORDER ! SOME SURPLUS STOCKS ! AT LEAST THE AIR RAID SIRENS CAN GO OFF !
UNLESS THE PLAN WAS TO ALLOW THE MISSILES TO SAIL IN - TO SEND A MESSAGE TO ISRAEL - THAT THEY ARE NEXT - IF PAKISTAN COULD BE TARGETED - THEN FOR ISRAELI HITS - NO REASON IS REQUIRED ! dindooohindoo
Veneeth: "But do not expect Modi regime to bow down to Pakistani pressure tactics and concede ground"
Modi sees India as a "superpower" and a regional hegemon that can order its smaller neighbors around. He behaves like a neighborhood bully.
He tried to intimidate Pakistan in 2019 and failed miserably.
https://www.riazhaq.com/2019/03/modis-india-paper-elephant.html
"Desh ka bahut nuksaan hua hai", he acknowledged after his military's failures against Pakistan in Balakot and Kashmir. This marked a major shift in Modi's belligerent tone toward Pakistan that has been characterized by his boasts of "chhappan inch ki chhati" (56 inch chest) and talk of "munh tor jawab" (jaw-breaking response) and "boli nahin goli" (bullets, not talks) to intimidate Pakistan.
There is a reason why the US, UK, and Israel have not attacked Iran despite "provocations" over the last decade.
Iran has launched spy satellites over the entire ME, it has launched monkeys looking like Indian astronauts into space and brought them back, and it is planning a moon satellite launch within one year. Pakistan's only option is its nukes, which more than likely will be the first Irani targets if a war begins. Iran is the only non-Western country with a 20,000 lb MOAB. Per UN nuke specialist Albright, Iran is able to assemble a nuke within one week.
When Macaron threatened Iran about 3 years ago, the IRGC's spokesman advised him to understand that Irani missiles can reach Paris. Macaron has since shut up.
Shams: "When Macaron threatened Iran about 3 years ago, the IRGC's spokesman advised him to understand that Irani missiles can reach Paris. Macaron has since shut up"
Your tall claims about Iran are sounding more and more like an IRGC spokesman’s. Thank God Pakistan put IRGC in its place by retaliating strongly and swiftly.
I think you are reading too much into Modi's bluffing in front of his domestic audience back then when he was facing an election. When the Pulwama attack (where over 40 Indian soldiers were blown to pieces) claimed by Pakistan-based jihadist group Jaish-e-Muhammad happened barely months before elections, Modi was under tremendous pressure to "respond" to Pakistan. It was not just the opposition political parties that were building pressure on him to act, but average Indian voters themselves expected him to. He would have well lost elections in 2019 otherwise. Just as in the case of 2008 Mumbai attacks, there is no doubt to us here that such an audacious attack on Indian security forces in Kashmir would not have happened without directions from Rawalpindi. So Modi had to do the something to make it seem that he has given a "befitting reply" to Pakistan. The country expected it irrespective of political affiliations. That the Balakot strike itself went awry with the bombs missing their target (due to some human error or technical malfunction perhaps) is another matter. Either way, he could tell his voters that he did what they expected him to.
Secondly, the reason I said Pakistan should not expect Modi govt to make any major concessions in Kashmir is purely in light of the ground realities. Look at it this way. J&K and Ladakh has been under Indian rule for 75 years just as AJK and GB has been under Pakistani rule for the same period. No country gives up easily a territory it has controlled for so long. (Remember "Operation Searchlight" and the Bangladesh liberation war.) Irrespective of the party in power in New Delhi, no Indian govt would ever take a step that would loosen its hold on Kashmir. Also, the current economic situation in Pakistan and India and the geo-political realities puts Pakistan in a much weaker negotiating position vis-a-vis India. India has a much stronger economy than Pakistan's and the disparity only looks to widen in the coming years as India enjoys a robust growth while Pakistan's continues to falter. After abrogation of Kashmir's "autonomous" status (a move that was given legal backing in a recent SC judgement) and the clampdown on separatist organizations, leaders and militant groups, Indian control on the territory is stronger than ever. Forget Modi's "arrogance" or his anti-Muslim rhetoric, in this situation what incentive does he (or any Indian PM) have to budge an inch? What does Pakistan have to offer in return for India making any major concession?
Pakistan needs to be pragmatic here, sir. It may well have the military assets to defend itself from an Indian aggression, but it has none to force India to comply to its demands (unless there is a major surge in militancy or some public upheaval on Kashmir, or a major economic or geo-political crisis like another catastrophic war with China that weakens India's position). Also, though it may be tempting to boast how Pakistan has given a "befitting reply" to the Iranian attack just as it had for the Indian attack 5 years ago, looking at the larger picture shows something Pakistan should be really worried about. With the exception of China, Pakistan's relations with all three of its immediate neighbours to the East, North and the West is at rock bottom. It is facing security threats from all three sides with its security establishment seemingly having no clear ideas how they could be resolved. Pakistan isn't in an enviable position either economically, politically or geo-politically to tackle all of its challenges unless its military estblishment makes a major course correction. It is time to pull the plug on jihadi groups for good.
Veneeth: "But do not expect Modi regime to bow down to Pakistani pressure tactics and concede ground"
CHAIWALA IS DOOMED WITH HIS NATION OF LIARS AND BANDICOOTS !
PEOPLE ARE NOT SEEING THE SIGNS !
THE TAMIL SENGOL IN THE PARLIAMENT,ARTICLE 370 SCRAPPED AND VANAR RANA TEMPLE
1ST TIME IN 17 YEARS KASHMIR HAD NO SNOW ! NO WATER, NO FARMING, NO HYDRO POWER , NO FISH...............
COMPLETE DESTRUCTION !
BUT THAT WATER,FEEDS PAKISTAN !
ALLAH IS SENDING A MESSAGE ! PAKISTAN HAS TO ATTACK NOW !
THE HINDOO INVESTMENT IN AFGHAN, WENT DOWN THE DRAIN ! THE HINDOO INVESTMENT IN KASHMIR DAMS,IS ALSO DOOMED ! WITH GLOBAL WARMING - CHINA WILL HAVE TO DOUBLE AND TREBLE DAMS - AND SO,HINDOOSTHAN IS DOOMED !
PAKISTANIS HAVE TO NOTE THIS VERSE,IN THE GRANTH ! WHO IS REFERRED TO HERE ?
Bhai Gurdas Ji Vaaran - Pannaa 33
ਦੁਹ ਵਿਚਿ ਦੁਖੀ ਦੁਬਾਜਰੇ ਖਰਬੜ ਹੋਏ ਖੁਦੀ ਖੁਆਰਾ।
Out of these two, the mongrels-apparently sadhus but internally thieves--are always in wavering state and, suffering for their ego, go astray.
ਵਾਰਾਂ ਭਾਈ ਗੁਰਦਾਸ : ਵਾਰ ੩੩ ਪਉੜੀ ੧ ਪੰ. ੨
ਦੁਹੀਂ ਸਰਾਈਂ ਜਰਦਰੂ ਦਗੇ ਦੁਰਾਹੇ ਚੋਰ ਚੁਗਾਰਾ।
Such double-faced thieves, backbiters and cheats remain pale-faced due to their bewilderment in both the worlds.
JIYE JIYE PAKISTAN !
‘We Have Narratives but No Proof of Balakot’s Success’: Former High Commissioner to Pakistan
https://thewire.in/diplomacy/watch-we-have-narratives-but-no-proof-of-balakots-success-former-high-commissioner-to-pakistan
In an interview to mark the launch of his recently published book Anger Management: The Troubled Diplomatic Relationship between India and Pakistan, which contains a critical chapter on the Pulwama terrorist attack and India’s retaliatory strike on Balakot, India’s High Commissioner to Pakistan at the time, Ajay Bisaria, has accepted that we only have narratives but no proof of the success of the Balakot strike. He added, “You’ll perhaps never know for sure” of how successful the strike was.
In a 35-minute interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Bisaria, while discussing his views, said that the terrorists behind the Pulwama attack of February 2019, the fifth anniversary of which will fall next month, “lucked out in getting an unprotected target in a convoy of vehicles” and thus “met with unexpected success”.
Bisaria was asked if he was echoing what Satya Pal Malik, who was the governor of Jammu and Kashmir at the time, told The Wire in an interview last year, when he claimed the terror attack was a result of “incompetence” and “laparwahi” by the Indian system.
The former envoy was also asked what proof exists to corroborate the statement made by the foreign secretary of the time, which Bisaria quotes in his book. The statement is that at Balakot, “a very large number of JeM terrorists, trainers, senior commanders, and groups of jihadis, who were being trained for fidayeen action, were eliminated.” It was during this part of the discussion that he accepted that we have narratives but not proof of Balakot’s success.
Towards the end of the interview, there is a substantial discussion about Pakistan’s response to Balakot, the shooting down of Wing Commander Abhinandan Varathaman’s MiG-21, and why Pakistan chose to hand him back within a couple of days.
This part of the interview involves a key question about Biswaria’s view that Pakistan “panicked” as well as the facts and developments he cites in his book which suggest that there was a fair amount of panic on the Indian side, too, including a phone call made by then foreign minister Sushma Swaraj to the then US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in the middle of the night (when she woke him up) because she was worried that Pakistan was preparing to use nuclear weapons against India.
MANTOU SAID
"Maldives has been in the news recently because the president told India to withdraw its troops from its territory and openly called out India as a bully."
AFTER AFGHANISTAN,THIS IS THE SECOND KICK TO CHAIWALA ! BUT THE ORANG OTANG HAS A THICK BUTT WHOSE DIMENSIONS ARE WIDER THAN HIS CHEST ! HENCE,IT HAS NO IMPACT,AS THERE IS SOME OTHER FOOL TO CON- LIKE DHAKA ! THAT IS THE PANWARI GUJARATI BANIA BUSINESS MODEL !
CHAIWALA EXTOLS THE LINGUISTIC & CULURAL LINKS OF 5000 YEARS - BUT MALDVES IS NOW AN ISLAMIC NATION - WIHCIH WANTS ITS LINKS TO HINDOOTHAN TO DIE ! AS PER THE RAMAYANA, MALDIVES WAS THE HOME OF "VASHIST" - A SORCERER ! IN OTHER WORDS, A LIAR,CHEATER, CRIMINAL AND A FRAUD - LIKE CHAIWALA AND HIS PANWARI BANIA TRIBE !
THE PANWARI BANIA RSS AND CHAIWALA THINK THAT SAARC NATIONS ACTUALLY BELIEVE IN THE GARBAGE OF THE RAMAYANA ! THE UTOPIA OF THE FOOLS !
MALDIVES NEEDS HIGH CLASS TOURISTS FROM EU/ NORTH AMERICA,NORTH EAST ASIA - NOT LOW END INDIAN MONGRELS !
THAT NEEDS BILLIONS OF USD IN INVESTMENTS N TOURISM INFRA ! ONLY CHINA CAN PROVIDE IT !
FOR SECURITY - MALE HAS TO LOOK TO CHINA & TURKEY ! TURKEY FOR TECH AND CHINA FOR TROOPS AND HARDWARE !
MALDIVES CAN BE THE "MALACCA CHOKE POINT" FOR INDIA + THE ENTRE INDIAN NAVY CAN BE PINNED DOWN BY THE PLN FROM MALDIVES
MUSLIMS HAVE TO NOTE THAT CHAIWALA IS ANTI- ISLAM AND A TERROROIST CRIMINAL !
INDIA IS DEAD AND BURIED IN MALE !
PLN WILL TAKE OVER !
PLN,PLA AND PLAF WILL SET UP MASSIVE BASES IN MALDIVES ! IT IS VITAL FOR CHINA TO CLAIM STAKE IN INDIAN OCEAN,TO CRIPPLE THE INDIAN NAVY, AS A COUNTER TO INDIAN PRESENCE IN SCS !
IT CHOKES ALL THE SHIPS WHICH TAKE THE ROUTE UNDER SRI LANKA TO THE GCC OR INDIAN PORTS !
WHETHER SEA RISES OR NOT, IS IRRELEVANT ! RISING SEA SUITS PLN,AND PRC ARE EXPERTS IN ARTIFICAL ISLANDs WHICH DOCK SHIPS AND HAVE AIRSTRIPS AND FUEL DEPOTS ! PLN HAS BUILT THESE TO NAIL AUSTRALIA ! AUSSIES ARE ON THE SEAS OF PLUTO, BUT PLN HAS MADE ARTIFICAL ISLANDS AND PORTS TO CHOKE OFF ALL VITAL PORTS IN AUSSIE ! CHAIWALA IS EASY MEAT !
SO MALDIVES IS THE PERFECT PARTNER, FOR PRC AND PLN !
AFTER AFGHAN THIS IS THE DISASTER NUMER 2, FOR CHAIWALA ! BHUTAN WILL ALSO WALK AWAY, AND SO WILL IRAN ! JUST A MATTER OF TIME !
CHINA IS THE IDEAL PARTNER FOR MALDIVES ! AS LT. GENERAL HAMID GUL SAID MANY YEARS AGO ABOUT INDIA-AGHAN, THAT "UNNATURAL RELATIONS" DO NOT LAST THE TEST OF TIME
SRI LANKA, MALDIVES, GWADAR, IRAN - THAT COMPLETES THE ENCIRCLEMENT OF THE INDIAN NAVY A& THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF INDIA !
NOW WHAT PLN NEEEDS IS A CHAIN OF ARTIFICIAL ISLANDS TO BE WITHIN A CERTAIN DISTANCE FROM GWADAR AND IRAN - AS LOGISTICS & FUEL AND AMMUN HUBS.
WHAT THE PANWARI BANIAS OF ZEE/ABP AND RSS DO NOT THINK ABOUT IS - WHAT AFTER CHAIWALA IS KILLED AND DEAD ? IS U SEE HIS PUFFED FACE - IT IS SHOWING TERMINAL DECLINE ! THE MONKEY ON STEROIDS IS DYING ! WHO IS THE NEXT MONEY ? AMIT SHAH OR LOONGIWALA RAJNATH SINGH ?
WHAT HAPPENED AFTER DEATH OF ASHOKA ?
WHAT HAPPENED AFTER DEATH OF RANJIT SINGH ?
WHAT HAPPENED AFTER DEATH OF RAJA RAJA CHOLA ?
WHAT HAPPENED AFTER DEATH OF AURANGZEB,SHIVAJI,TIPU SULTAN,CHANKAYA,MAURYA AND THE RAJPOOT TADPOLES - RANA SANGA,RANA PRATAP...... ?
DES-TRUC-TION !IT IS IN INDIAN HISTORY ! I AM SURE PAKISTAN,TALIBAN AND MONGOLS HAVE READ IT !
Y ?
BESIDES AURANGZEB (WHO HAD BLUE BLOOD),ALL THE REST WERE UPSTARTS, FRAUDS, ILLEGITIMATE KIDS AND PLACED INTO POWER BY LUCK,DECEIT OR TREACHERY --------------- JUST LIKE CHAIWALA !
WONDERBAR !
MAMMA MIA !
CARAMBA !
AND THAT IS HINDOO HISTORY ! PAKISTAN AND THE MONGOLS HAVE TO SHARPEN THEIR CLAWS TILL CHAIWALA IS DEAD !THEN DESTRUCTION IS CERTAIN !
DESTRUCTION OF HINDOOSTHAN IS VITAL TO LIBERATE DALITS AND MINORITIES ! IT IS A DIVINE AND MORAL IMPERATIVE !
JIYE JIYE PAKISTAN !
@Vineeth and Riaz
A new temple will lift 1.2 billion Hindus to new heights for the next 1000 years. Please report on that and leave Iran Mullahs alone.
Blogger Zen, Germany said...
A new temple will lift 1.2 billion Hindus to new heights for the next 1000 years
1000 years ! Hubris ? Or Cocaine with Gau Mutram and the incense of smoked cow dung cakes !
Solomon made his Temple,and was dead in 20 years, broken and suffering in sorrow,with the curse of Yaweh, on him,and in a few years after his death,the Jews were in exile,and scattered across the world,for 2000 years !
Hirohito and General Heidiki Tojo thought they will rule for ever
Hitler thought the same
ASHOKA MADE 88000 STUPAS AND LIBARIES,THE PILLAR.............. ALL WAS DESTROED IN A FEW YEARS AFTER HIS DEATH !
IN LINE WITH HISTORY, THIS TEMEPLE WILL BE THE TURNING POINT AND EPITAPH FOR INDIA !
DISASTERS WILl STRIKE IN THUS YEAR
The reply I had posted for this comment appears to have vanished again for some reason. If I remember right, I hadn't used any abusive language. Perhaps certain facts and observations I happened to mention wasn't to somebody's liking? ;)
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