Monday, April 25, 2022

Ukraine War: Time For India To Rethink its Military Doctrine Modeled On Russia's?

India's Russian-equipped and trained military is watching with great concern Russia's losses in the Ukraine war. Moscow has lost 20,000 soldiers, nearly 500 main battle tanks and a large warship so far, according to media reports. Ukraine's use of Turkish drones, US-made anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) Javelins and Ukrainian anti-ship Neptune missiles has taken a heavy toll on the Russian Army and Navy. It is notable that India's Cold Start Doctrine against Pakistan is modeled on the Russian formation known as the “operational maneuver group” (OMG).  

Russian Influence On Indian Military Doctrine. Source: Air University, US Air Force

Russian Influence on Indian Military Doctrine:

It is well known that the Indian Army relies on Russian tanks, artillery, rockets, and ammunition. The Indian Navy uses Russian ships, submarines and missiles and the Russian Su-30 MKI forms the backbone of the Indian Air Force. Like Russia, the Indian military doctrine is based on deploying large platforms (tanks, artillery, ships and fighter-bombers) with massive firepower.  Here's an excerpt of an article by Dr. Vipin Narang, an Indian-American analyst, on the subject: 

"In terms of doctrine and strategy, although it may be difficult to trace direct influence and lineage between Russia and India, there are several pieces in India’s conventional and nuclear strategy that at least mirror Russia’s behavior. On the conventional side, the core formation in the quick-strike concept known as “Cold Start” or “proactive strategy options” was modeled on the Russian formation known as the “operational maneuver group” (OMG). The idea was to have a formation that could be rapidly assembled from tank and armored divisions that could break through reinforced defenses—NATO for Russia, and Pakistan’s I and II Corps in the plains and desert sectors for India.

"On the nuclear side, India is currently seized with the same dilemma as the Soviet Union was during the Cold War: both NATO and Pakistan threaten battlefield nuclear weapons against conventional thrusts (India, at least, presumably would be retaliating following a Pakistan-backed provocation). While both states refined their conventional concept of operations, there may have also been corresponding adjustments to their nuclear strategies. It was long believed that, in response to NATO threats to use nuclear weapons first on the battlefield, the Soviet Union had strong preemptive counterforce elements in its strategy to try to at least disarm the United States of its strategic nuclear weapons for damage limitation. It is increasingly evident that at least some serious Indian officials are interested in developing the same sort of option: preemptive counterforce against Pakistan’s strategic nuclear forces, both for damage limitation and to reopen India’s conventional superiority. It is no surprise perhaps, then, that India chose to go ahead with acquiring Russia’s S-400 missile and air defense system, despite the threat of Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions from the United States: the S-400 is key to India’s damage limitation strategy, capable of potentially intercepting residual ballistic and cruise missiles that a counterforce strike might miss". 

Turkish Drones: 

Turkish Bayraktar TB2 has been highly effective in destroying Russian tanks and armor in Ukraine. It is playing a key role in Ukraine's counter offensives against Russia's invasion. It is proving so effective that "Ukrainian forces are singing its praises, literally", according to a CNN report

Indian Army has nearly 6,000 tanks of Russian origin. These tanks are just as vulnerable to drone and anti-tank missiles as the Russian tanks that perished in Ukraine. 

Pakistan has developed Baktar Shikan, a second-generation man-portable anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) system which uses optical aiming, IR tracking, remotely controlled and wire transmitted guidance signals. It can also be mounted on attack helicopters and Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs). Its long range, penetration power and a powerful anti-jamming capability form a potent defense against armored targets.

Pakistan is also reported to have already acquired Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones recently. It was displayed in the Pakistan Day Parade on March 23, 2022, along with other military equipment acquired recently by the Pakistani defense forces. 

Anti-Ship Missiles:

Ukraine claims that its Neptune anti-ship missiles hit and sank Moskva in Black Sea.  It was a large 10,000-ton guided missile cruiser of the Russian Navy that was launching cruise missiles on targets in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. It is the largest warship to have been sunk in action since WWII. 

Vast majority of Indian Navy ships, including its aircraft carriers and missile frigates, are designed, built and equipped by Russians.  

Pakistan recently showcased its anti-ship missile Harbah at DIMDEX 2022, a defense expo in Qatar. It  is a medium range ship launched subsonic cruise missile system capable of targeting sea as well as land targets in “all weather operation” at a maximum range of 280 kilometers, according to a report in NavalNews. The missile is fire and forget type. It relies on inertial navigation technologies with GPS and GLONASS systems. According to its manufacturer GIDS, the missile features the following guidance systems: a DSMAC camera, imaging infrared seeker, and radar seeker.

Summary:

The war in Ukraine is forcing a defense strategy rethink in countries such as India which rely on Russian equipment and training. Hindustan Times has quoted an unnamed former Indian Army Chief as saying:  “War videos available show that the Russian Army has tactical issues in Ukraine war. Tell me, which tank formation goes to war in a single file without air or infantry cover when the opponent is equipped with the best anti-tank guided missile like Javelin or Turkish Bayraktar TB2 missile firing drones? There is question on Russian air supremacy with Ukraine Army armed with shoulder fired Stinger surface to air missiles as well as the night fighting capability of the Russian Air Force.”

Related Links:

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Ukraine's Lesson For Pakistan: Never Give Up Nukes!

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Riaz Haq Youtube Channel

VPOS Youtube Channel


19 comments:

Riaz Haq said...

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Javed E. said...

Hopefully the Russian debacle will give pause to all aggressors, even though America’s debacles are often followed by another adventure.

samir sardana said...

The debacles of the Russian army,are to be expected,for an invading army,with a hostile population,and guerilla tactics - when the guerillas are supported,by superpowers !

The REAL DISASTER = SINKING OF RUSSIAN DESTROYER !

On Day 50, the star of the Black Sea Fleet, is lying at the bottom,of the Sea of Azov

Sunk by a Soviet modified land based missile,launched from a mobile launcher

2022

Destroyers are obsolete and Traditional Navies are obsolete

Drones and Shore based missiles,make ships, sitting ducks

What is the future, of the Indian Navy ?

DOOM !

In January,2022, Russian warships were exercising,in the (A)rabian Sea.In April 2022, their star is sunk in the (A)zov sea !

The Russian star,sank on the 14th of April,2022,and the Russian-Naval exercises were held on the 14th of January,2022

The Indian Navy,is banking on Russian Ships,Subs and Mine sweepers !

Just 1 missile hit below the water line,near the engine or the ammu/fuel dump - and then, gravity takes over.

The same applies to the Mach 10 land based aircraft carrier killer missiles, of PRC ,targetting the US Aircraft carriers,in the SCS !

TURNING POINT IN THE UKRAINE WAR

BUT........................

it is the US and NATO which AIDED the UKR military.W/o US/NATO aid and INT,the ship could not,have been sunk

The Missiles and the Ship, are both Soviet,and the UKR military,is trained by the Soviets and Russians,and knows all their tactics and INT and EW and CM.BUT W/O US/NATO tracking and targetting aid, the SHIP,COULD NOT HAVE BEEN SUNK

ODESSA WILL STILL REMAIN CLOSED - TILL THE RUSSIANS ARE IN AZOV - BUT THE SOLUTION TO THE RUSSIAN BLOCKADE HAS BEEN FOUND - AND THE TURKISH STRAITS ARE CLOSED

NATO will ship out the Anti-Ship Missiles soon.Russian Navy will have to keep far off,from land - which will make Ship based missile attacks,from the Russian Navy,on Kiev/Mariupol, unviable

It will also make the fuel and food ships,from Russia to UKR ports unviable.THERE IS NO WAY THAT THE RUSSIAN FRIGATES CAN BLOCK,LAND BASED ANTI-SHIP MISSILES.

AND THIS BRINGS THE US/NATO - DIRECTLY INTO THE WAR - WITH RUSSIA.W/O US/NATO INT AND TECH - NO RUSSIAN SHIP,CAN BE SUNK.dindooohindoo

AND THAT WILL CAUSE THE GEOMETRIC ESCALATION BY PUTIN - AND THE 1 WAY TICKET TO WW3 !

Ranjit S. said...

Actually, the militaries of the whole world is watching. Ukraine is being armed from numerous NATO countries. It seems like the key to Ukraine’s success are drones, hand held anti tank weapons and information from American satellites about Russian positions. I was surprised to see Russian tanks moving in such close formations openly without securing Airspace. Ukraine soldiers are highly motivated as the Pakistani soldiers were motivated in saving Lahore during the 1965 war. Lastly Ukraine Army is not a small Army besides they are intimate with Russian Military hardware and tactics. This war is a great learning opportunity for all armies. Major mistake the Russians made was not moving in a rapid great force. One must overwhelm the enemy, though I do understand that it is very hard for Russians to fight a people who basically are your kin. Hope this senseless war ends soon.

Shams N. said...

How long do you think Russian forces need to bomb out of existence the Kiev airports that are receiving arms, or to blow up the arms coming in by road, or via the port of Odessa? Do you seriously believe that Russians who built in 1980s the International Space Station (while the US/Euro still are not able to) are so incompetent to not be able to target the way they want?

I am convinced that the media reports we are getting are far from the truth, and even farther when it comes to Ukraine's successes. Ukraine is the size of Texas state, and Russia already has full control of Ukraine's entire Black Sea access, except for Odessa which is about 2/3rd the capacity of Karachi port.

Riaz Haq said...

Shams: "I am convinced that the media reports we are getting are far from the truth, and even farther when it comes to Ukraine's successes"

Forget western media reports and ask yourself the following:

Russia’s assault began on February 24 2022, more than 2 months ago. Why has Putin not already been able to subdue Texas-size Ukraine?

Why did Russia abandon armored assault on Kiev?

Who stopped miles long Russian armored column dead in its tracks?

How did a huge warship Moskva cruiser sink?

Think for yourself.

My take: Russia will eventually prevail over Ukraine but at great cost in terms of Russian lives, economy and military. It will be at best be a Pyrrhic victory for Putin.

Riaz Haq said...

#Russia Can’t Depend on #India Either. #NewDelhi may be frustratingly tolerant of #Putin, but it isn’t likely to help him substantively in #UkraineWar. #Modi @dhume https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-cant-depend-on-india-either-russia-ukraine-moscow-energy-exports-oil-new-delhi-11651173078 via @WSJOpinion

Russian oil makes up a small fraction of Indian oil imports—only around 2% in 2021. Despite its recent purchases, India isn’t among the top 10 importers of Russian energy. As Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar pointed out last month, this is unlikely to change. Most of Indian energy comes from Gulf nations that are friendly to America. As of 2020, its top three oil suppliers were Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, while its top gas suppliers were Qatar and the U.S. With access to reliable energy supplies from the Gulf, Indian refiners don’t need to turn to faraway Russia.

------

India’s reliance on Russian arms has been declining—down from 69% of Indian arms purchases in 2012-16 to 46% in 2017-21. Western sanctions on Russia could accelerate this decline by undermining Russia’s ability to maintain a sophisticated defense-industrial base. Russia’s battlefield losses may also force its arms producers to focus on replenishing its own stocks over expanding exports. And though Moscow has been a reliable strategic partner to New Delhi in the past, its growing closeness to Beijing makes it less dependable. Mr. Tellis predicts a continued “gentle decline” in Indian arms imports from Russia, at least compared with India’s imports from other nations such as the U.S., Israel and France.

Riaz Haq said...

India Arming Its Russian Choppers With Israeli Anti-Tank Missiles

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/04/26/india-choppers-anti-tank-missiles/


India is arming its fleet of Russian-origin Mi-17V5 helicopters with Israeli Spike anti-tank guided missiles, Asia News International hasreported.

A limited number of Rafael Spike NLOS (Non-Line-of-Sight) missiles have been ordered, while a larger quantity of the munition will be locally manufactured, the news outlet added, citing sources.

The deployment of tanks and infantry combat vehicles by the People’s Liberation Army along the mountainous Line of Actual Control during a faceoff with the Indian Army two years ago prompted the Indian Air Force to purchase the weapon.

The missile can target armored vehicles, mobile air defenses, and command and control posts.

Riaz Haq said...

“Drones do the talking in Pakistan’s anti-#terror offensive”. #Pakistan has launched a #drone campaign in #Afghanistan against the #TTP– the Pakistani #Taliban, after the #Afghan Taliban’s failure to crack down on the TTP on Afghan soil https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/drones-do-talking-pakistan-s-anti-terror-offensive, via @LowyInstitute


On 16 April, two days after eight Pakistani soldiers were killed in a terrorist attack on a military convoy near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in North Waziristan District, Pakistan military drones targeted TTP hideouts in the Khost and Kunar provinces of Afghanistan. Pakistani officials claimed that the TTP suffered huge losses after its bases near the Afghan border were hit by the strikes.

Pakistan’s attack was in retaliation for the spike in cross-border terrorist attacks that followed an announcement by the TTP on 30 March of a spring offensive during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. The TTP still has between 3,000 and 5,000 fighters in Afghanistan according to a recent report by UN monitors.

Contrary to Islamabad’s optimism, Pakistan has witnessed an exponential rise in attacks on the country’s security forces since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in August. It appears that Taliban rule has actually emboldened and strengthened the TTP. The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan last year, which significantly reduced US air strikes in the region, also allowed the TTP to operate with increased impunity.

The Taliban has done little to counter the TTP, besides facilitating talks last October between Pakistan and the banned group, and suggesting that Islamabad declare amnesty for the TTP. The October talks failed after the TTP declared an end to a month-long ceasefire with Pakistan in December.

Although Pakistan has repeatedly pressed the Taliban to crack down on the TTP, it’s likely that the Taliban’s reticence is driven by a fear of pushing the group towards Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K). The IS-K is already involved in terrorist activity in the strife-torn country and its actions threaten to destabilise the Taliban government.

Islamabad has conveyed to Kabul that the Afghan government could use a crackdown on the TTP as a test case to address not only Pakistan’s concerns but also establish Afghanistan’s credentials internationally with regards to dealing with terrorist outfits. Use of Afghan territory by the TTP to launch attacks on Pakistan contradicts the Taliban’s commitment made under the 2020 Doha accord with the United States and the international community that Afghanistan would not become a launchpad for attacks by al-Qaeda or other outfits against a third country.

Disappointed by the Taliban, Islamabad ultimately resorted to the much criticised drone attacks, previously used by US forces against Islamic extremists in the so-called Af-Pak region. Pakistan developed its own military drone and used it successfully for the first time in September 2015 in a counterterrorism operation against Pakistan Taliban in its northwestern tribal area along the Afghanistan border.

Pakistan’s most recent drone attack escalated the Pakistan-Taliban tensions that had been on the rise since last August when the Taliban militarily conquered Kabul. In December, Taliban fighters, in a provocative move, uprooted the metal fence erected by the Pakistan military to check infiltration of TTP militants along the border. The Taliban strongly oppose what they call the “illegal” fence, but are unwilling to take the action necessary to keep the group from using Afghan soil for attacks on Pakistan.

Riaz Haq said...

8 years back, Modi promised to transform India’s military. Today, the plan is in disarray
A large number of standalone military reforms have been conceptualised but for inexplicable reasons have not been executed.

https://theprint.in/opinion/8-years-back-modi-promised-to-transform-indias-military-today-the-plan-is-in-disarray/942695/

Even the worst critics of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s ideology acknowledge that it was committed to national security and a strong military befitting an emerging power. It was expected that the BJP would give utmost priority to national security and transform the armed forces for conflicts of the 21st century. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had absolute clarity on this issue when he addressed the Combined Commanders Conference on 15 December 2015 — “Modernisation and expansion of forces at the same time is a difficult and unnecessary goal. We need forces that are agile, mobile and driven by technology, not just human valour. We need capabilities to win swift wars, for we will not have the luxury of long drawn battles.”

Eight years down the line, the transformation process Modi directed to be implemented, is in disarray. There has been much rhetoric from the political and military hierarchy and the media, based on “reliable sources”, dutifully gave out details of numerous standalone reforms in the offing. However, despite the appointment of the Chief of Defence Staff on 31 December 2019, none of the major reforms except a policy with respect to atmanirbharta or self-reliance in defence equipment, which is yet to bear fruit, have fructified.

The political leadership has neither “owned” the transformation by giving clear strategic directions and laying down the process with timelines, nor shown the drive to supervise the execution. Consequently, a “bottom up approach” from a statusquoist military known for inter-Service squabbles was adopted. Non-appointment of a CDS — who could have at least continued to coordinate this flawed approach — for five months, only proves the point.

Own the transformation and correct the process
Historically, transformation of the military is politically driven. The government must carry out a long-term strategic review to evolve ‘National Security Perspective 2050’. From this must emerge a progressive National Security Strategy reviewed periodically and matched with the forecast of the GDP. This is the responsibility of the government and not the military and has been pending with the National Security Advisor since 2018.

----------------

Make a fresh start
Let there be no doubt that, so far, no tangible major reforms have taken place towards transformation of the armed forces. Indeed, a large number of standalone reforms have been conceptualised but for inexplicable reasons have not been executed. The government failed to own the transformation by not formalising a National Security Strategy, issuing formal directions to the armed forces and supervising/coordinating the execution by setting up an empowered committee under the defence minister.

The armed forces too failed to rise to the occasion. They should have seized the opportunity opened by cryptic directions of the Prime Minister given during the Combined Commanders Conferences and systematically reformed from within. More so, when the draft for the Prime Minister’s speech is forwarded to the Prime Minister’s Office by the Chiefs of Staff Committee.

The government and the military must get back to the drawing board and make a fresh start.

Lt Gen H S Panag PVSM, AVSM (R) served in the Indian Army for 40 years. He was GOC in C Northern Command and Central Command. Post retirement, he was Member of Armed Forces Tribunal. Views are personal.


Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan's ‘Harba’ Missile - How Is Indian Navy Preparing To Defend Itself From Moskva-Like Incident

https://eurasiantimes.com/pakistans-harba-missile-how-is-indian-navy-preparing/

Pakistan’s ‘Harba’ Missile – How Is Indian Navy Preparing To Defend Itself From Moskva-Like Incidents?
By
Haider Abbas
May 1, 2022
Alarm bells rang out through India’s defense establishment on April 14, 2022, as the Russian warship Moskva was sunk by Ukrainian Neptune missiles.

In the name of national security, India needed to immediately probe and uncover how one of the world’s mightiest naval forces could lose such a prestigious warship? More so, at the hands of a so-called “underdog” like Ukraine. Furthermore, could India face a similar strategic threat from its own “underdog” neighbor Pakistan?

Soaring High! India’s LCA Tejas To Undergo Critical Testing While Delhi Eyes ‘Debut Deal’ With Malaysia
This was a debacle for Russia, one that India needs to urgently focus on to dissect and learn from. Large portions of India’s arms and weaponry bear the “made-in-Russia” seal.

Russia has been India’s largest supplier of arms and experts in New Delhi would be keenly watching the performance of Russian military hardware in the Ukrainian conflict.

-------------

Pak's Harba missile: How India is preparing to prevent Moskva like incident
Published on May 06, 2022 07:26 PM IST
Since sinking of Russian flagship cruiser- Moskva, after being hit by a Ukrainian missile. India has been keeping a close watch on Pakistan navy’s anti-ship missile - Harba. In March 2022, Pakistan showcased its anti-ship cruise missile Harba for the first time in Qatar. It was developed for Pakistan navy to create an indigenous solution for its vessels. Watch this video for more. #Habra #India #Pakistan #Russia #Moskva #Navy #Ukraine

https://www.hindustantimes.com/videos/world-news/paks-harba-missile-threat-how-india-preparing-to-prevent-moskva-like-incident-101651845149904.html

Riaz Haq said...

The US intelligence community is carrying out a sweeping internal review of how it assesses the fighting power of foreign militaries amid mounting pressure from key lawmakers on Capitol Hill who say officials have failed twice in one year on the two major foreign policy crises faced by the Biden administration in Ukraine and Afghanistan.

The Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday sent a classified letter to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the Defense Department and the CIA pointing out that the agencies broadly underestimated how long the Ukrainian military would be able to fend off Russian forces and overestimated how long Afghan fighters would hold out against the Taliban last summer after the US withdrawal from the country, multiple sources familiar with the matter tell CNN. They questioned the methodology behind the intelligence community's assessments, and the underlying assumptions behind them, the sources said.
CNN has learned that one smaller intelligence agency within the State Department did more accurately assess the Ukrainian military's capability to resist Russia. But while that assessment was shared within the US government, it did not override the wider intelligence community's predictions.


https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/13/politics/us-intelligence-review-ukraine/index.html

Current and former intelligence officials acknowledge that only looking at military "capabilities" leaves out the quintessentially human factors that could prove decisive. Assessing a population's will to fight is an art, not a science, that defies purely data-driven analysis, the senior State Department official said. But, the official said, it is a key element to determining how successful a military will be in a fight.
"The basic challenge is, you can see what you can count: so you know something about the armaments they have and you can maybe see something about the training they have," said Treverton.
"But the things that matter are all intangible," he said. "You just don't know how good they're going to be and how willing they're going to be to fight. I've never seen us have much by way of a good method for doing that."

Riaz Haq said...

Ukraine crisis: Could India cut its defence ties with Russia?


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-61274042

"There's strong reason to believe that... Russia will be unable to fulfil its contractual commitments to India with delivery of all of the S-400 system," says Mr Lalwani.

He also believes that the losses Russia has incurred in Ukraine could mean it may not be able to meet India's needs "because it will be desperate to use all the spares to replenish its own forces".

Why is Russia losing so many tanks in Ukraine?
And he says Indian policymakers may be taking note of some of the issues that have faced Russian battlefield equipment and munitions in Ukraine.

Could India manage without Russian arms?
That looks unlikely at the moment.

A US Congressional report in October last year said that the "Indian military cannot operate effectively without Russian-supplied equipment and will continue to rely on Russian weapons systems in the near and middle term".

The report noted that Russia offers its weapons at relatively attractive prices.

Sangeeta Saxena, editor of Delhi-based Aviation and Defence Universe, says the Indian army in particular will continue to keep buying from Russia.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan to launch 3rd Babur class guided missile heavy corvette this month

https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/13-May-2022/pakistan-to-launch-3rd-babur-class-guided-missile-heavy-corvette-this-month


According to the Pakistan Strategic Forum, "The class of four Babur corvettes are being built under the joint venture MILGEM project between Pakistan and Turkey, with 2 ships being built in Istanbul, Turkey and 2 in Karachi, Pakistan at a cost of around $1.5 Billion to the Pakistan Navy. The Babur Class Corvettes are 3,000 tonne multi-mission platforms, equipped for anti-ship warfare (AShW), anti-submarine warfare (ASW) as well as anti-air warfare (AAW).

"In the Anti-Surface category, the corvettes will be armed with ATMACA anti-ship missiles, with two four-cell launchers. ASuW helicopters can also be deployed from the ship, carrying anti-ship and anti-submarine weapons.

"In anti-air warfare, the corvettes have a 12 cell GWS-26 vertical launch system (VLS) that carries the MBDA Albatros NG/Common Anti-Air Modular Missile-Extended Range (CAMM-ER) surface-to-air missile (SAM) with a range of between 50-65 kilometres. The Babur-class will also use an Aselsan Gökdeniz dual 35 mm close-in-weapon-system (CIWS) with Aselsan ATOM airburst ammunition for terminal and point air defense.

"In Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW), the corvettes have two 3-cell 324 mm lightweight torpedoes launchers as well as the Yakamos hull-mounted sonar and a HIZIR towed array sonar system as well as decoy. ASW helicopters can also be deployed from the ship with submarine hunter-killer capabilities.

"Other weapons systems include a 76 mm OTO Melara Super Rapid main naval gun and two Aselsan STOP 25 mm machine guns. The ships will also have a 10-ton capacity helicopter hangar and deck. The warships have a range of 9,300 kilometres and are powered by General Electric LM2500 CODAD engines.

"The electronics suit for the four ships will be supplied by Aselsan at a cost of 215 million dollars which includes a main 3D AESA S-band naval radar, ASELSAN ALPER LPI Surface Radar, AKREP (AKR-D Block B-1/2) Fire Control Radar, SATCOM, a new network-oriented battle-management system, ARES-2NC ESM modules, ELINT and SIGINT modules, Electronic Warfare (EW) modules, SeaEye-AHTAPOT EO Reconnaisance and Survellience System, ASELSAN Piri (Infrared Search and Track) IRST system, as well as the Yakamos hull-mounted sonar system and HIZIR torpedo countermeasure system. The HIZIR is a complete suite consisting of a towed array, decoy array and expendable decoys."

Riaz Haq said...

Is Indian Navy's aircraft carrier a big threat to Pakistan Navy?

https://cscr.pk/explore/themes/defense-security/is-indian-aircraft-carrier-a-big-threat-for-pakistan-navy/


The possession of an aircraft carrier is of significant value for any navy. The idea behind the development of an aircraft carrier is to project power at a long distance in peacetime and achieve air dominance at sea during a war. It restricts the adversary warships outside of a designated area, acts as a coercive tool, protects interests at sea, and exercises influence over an area. All major powers having interests outside of their territories have developed them, especially after World War II when the potential of carriers to strike targets accurately at a long-distance using aircraft was effectively demonstrated. India operates one aircraft carrier; another is under sea trials, and the third one is planned. The possession of these carriers lifts India as a major power in the Indian Ocean Region. However, the possession of carriers may have more utility during peacetime than a full-fledged war due to the growing effectiveness and success of anti-ship capabilities.

Indian Maritime Doctrine and Aircraft Carriers

Indian Maritime Doctrine outlines a large area as an area of interest for the Indian Navy to strengthen its position as a blue water force capable of operating and projecting power beyond its home waters. The doctrine enlists primary, secondary, and “other areas” as areas of interest based on the location of the Indian Diaspora and overseas investments vital for the Indian Navy. It also enlists various enabling concepts to protect interests in these areas like “sea control” and “sea denial.”

The backbone of a blue water navy is the aircraft carrier and the Indian Navy plans to possess three aircraft carriers in total, giving it the flexibility to have two operational carriers all the times. INS Vikramaditya aircraft carrier with a displacement of 45,000 tons is the current operational carrier of India. The under-trial carrier is domestically built INS Vikrant and is slated to be commissioned early next year. The construction of follow-on to Vikrant is being debated in India due to the questions on the utility of aircraft carriers in comparison to submarines. It has not been approved by the Indian Government yet. Indian Navy operates two squadrons of MiG 29K carrier-borne multi-role aircraft inducted in 2010. Various operational problems have been observed in the aircraft like engine, airframe, and fly-by-wire system.

Limitations of Indian Aircraft Carriers

While the anti-ship capabilities are becoming common, more advanced, and precise, Indian carriers are not among the most advanced in the world. There are also certain limitations of the Indian carriers to operate and effectively project power against Pakistan. Firstly, Indian carriers have limited displacement and can carry up to 36 mixes of aircraft. The limited displacement also means reduced fuel load and an operational range of aircraft, forcing it to operate near the adversary. Displacement capacity also impacts the weapons load on the aircraft. Secondly, the aircraft on the carriers are allocated defensive and offensive roles. Increasing numbers for one role can have catastrophic implications for the other. Thirdly, take-off and landing on the carrier are totally different from ground-based landing and take-off. Indian carriers use Short Take-off But Assisted Recovery (STOBAR) take-off and landing system, which has a slower take-off rate than the more advanced Catapult Assisted Take-off But Arrested Recovery (CATOBAR) system.

Riaz Haq said...

Is Indian Navy's aircraft carrier a big threat to Pakistan Navy?

https://cscr.pk/explore/themes/defense-security/is-indian-aircraft-carrier-a-big-threat-for-pakistan-navy/

Pakistan’s Counter Options against Aircraft Carriers

Pakistan is beefing up its muscles against the increasing number of Indian warships and capabilities. Part of its efforts is focused on developing anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities. It is developing various anti-ship capabilities to effectively neutralize the Indian advantage of large numbers of warships and aircraft carriers. There are three layers of defence against Indian aircraft if deployed against Pakistan.

Firstly, Pakistan deploys anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM) on its submarines. Pakistan currently operates two Agosta-70 submarines that can fire Harpoon anti-ship missiles, three Agosta 90B submarines that can carry Exocet anti-ship missiles. Eight submarines are on order from China which will also have anti-ship capabilities. Secondly, it has also developed or acquired several ASCMs such as Harba ASCM launched from the ship and the air-launched CM-400AKG anti-ship missile with supersonic speed. The coastal/land-based Zarb ASCM provides the third line of defence in the coastal waters of Pakistan against the intruding carrier. The Navy is also reportedly developing a supersonic cruise missile and an anti-ship ballistic missile. The development of anti-ship ballistic missiles will create a long buffer zone against the Indian carrier depending on the missile’s range.

Indian Navy will seriously consider the growing effectiveness of Pakistan’s anti-ship capabilities for the deployment of its carriers. These capabilities will force Indian carriers to operate from a safer distance making it less useful against the country. Even if trying to carry out a blockade of Pakistan or achieve air dominance against Pakistan in the Arabian sea, it risks its survival against Pakistan’s potent anti-ship capabilities.

Riaz Haq said...

Early in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it wasn’t just Moscow that believed its offensive could succeed quickly. In February, even U.S. officials warned Kyiv could fall in days.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-a-simple-ratio-came-to-influence-military-strategy-11652434202

Russians had numbers on their side, or more precisely a number: the 3:1 rule, the ratio by which attackers must outnumber defenders in order to prevail. It is one of several “force ratios” popular in military strategy. Russia, it seemed, could amass that advantage.

The war in Ukraine has brought renewed interest in force ratios. Other ratios in military doctrine include the numbers needed to defeat unprepared defenders, resist counterinsurgencies or counterattack flanks. Though they sound like rules of thumb for a board game like Risk, the ratios have been taught to generations of both American and Soviet and then Russian tacticians, and provide intuitive support for the idea Ukraine was extremely vulnerable.

“I would imagine that most of them are thinking in those terms, that you need something on the order of a 3:1 advantage to break through,” said John Mearsheimer, a University of Chicago professor whose work focuses on security competition between great powers. “It’s clear in this case that the Russians badly miscalculated.”

Modern versions of the 3:1 rule apply to local sectors of combat. A Rand Corp. study determined a theater-wide 1.5-to-1 advantage would allow attackers to achieve 3:1 ratios in certain sectors.

Overall, Russia’s military has quadruple the personnel and infantry vehicles, triple the artillery and tanks, and nearly 10 times the armored personnel carriers, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the London-based think tank.

With 190,000 Russian troops concentrated to invade in February, and Ukraine’s military spread across the country, (only 30,000 troops, for example, were estimated to be in Ukraine’s east near the Donbas region) it appeared Russia had the numbers to overwhelm Ukraine.

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Ratios don’t account for Western intelligence and materiel support, for Ukrainian resolve, for low Russian morale, for Russia’s logistical struggles, or for severe Russian tactical errors, like leaving tanks exposed in columns on major roadways, Mr. Biddle said.

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These ratios originate from 19th-century European land wars.

In his seminal 1832 text on military strategy, “On War,” the Prussian General Carl von Clausewitz proclaimed: “The defensive form of warfare is intrinsically stronger than the offensive.” By the Franco-Prussian War in 1870, Prussians distilled this to requiring triple the attackers. Prussia decisively triumphed; maybe they were on to something.

World War I, with years of stalemate in the trenches as combatants struggled to break through defenses, lent further credibility to the idea.

English Brigadier-General James Edmonds, writing shortly after World War I, recorded an early version of the rule: “It used to be reckoned in Germany that to turn out of a position an ebenbürtigen foe—that is, a foe equal in all respects, courage, training, morale and equipment—required threefold numbers.”

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Still, he said of Ukraine: “It’s obvious in this case, the force ratio, the number of static units, are a very poor predictor of what’s going to happen on the battlefield.”

To Mr. Epstein, force ratios exemplify a quip from the writer H.L. Mencken—and a lesson Russia is learning the hard way:

“There is always a well-known solution to every human problem—neat, plausible and wrong.”

Riaz Haq said...

India may buy Rafales to give its aircraft carriers more strike options
Navy plans to buy 26 MRCBFs, so that INS Vikrant has more strike options

https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/india-may-buy-rafales-to-give-its-aircraft-carriers-more-strike-options-122051600018_1.html

The Indian Naval Ship (INS) Vikrant, the Navy’s first indigenous aircraft carrier (IAC-1), is undergoing lengthy sea trials, after which it will enter operational service late this year.

With the 45 Russian MiG-29K/KUB fighters notorious for their unreliability, the Navy plans to urgently procure 26 multi-role carrier-borne fighters (MRCBF) from an international vendor, so that INS Vikrant has more strike options besides the unreliable MiG-29s. With INS Vikrant likely to be followed by a second indigenous aircraft carrier (IAC-2) named INS Vishal, another 31 MRCBFs will be ...

Riaz Haq said...

Boeing, Dassault ‘Fire Salvo At Each Other’ As Both Eye Multi-Billion Fighter Jet Deal For Indian Navy

https://eurasiantimes.com/boeing-dassault-pr-teams-fire-salvo-at-each-other/

As the Indian Navy plans to procure an aircraft carrier-borne fighter, US defense giant Boeing is confident of its F/A-18E Super Hornets, sidelining the French Rafale jets challenge.


Later this month, Boeing will display the aircraft’s potential at the Indian Navy’s Shore Based Test Facility (SBTF) at INS Hansa in Goa. The F/A-18E Super Hornet will be put to the test for a few weeks until June. The facility has been chosen as it has a ski jump modeled after the deck of an aircraft carrier.

Alain Garcia, vice-president of India business development, Boeing Defense, Space and Security, and Global Services, said – the aircraft will conduct jobs requested by the Indian Navy and in different configurations. He claimed that Boeing’s fighter jet would exceed the Indian Navy’s expectations.

Earlier in January, France displayed the capabilities of its Rafale maritime fighter jets at the SBTF.

Both Rafale-M and F/A-18 twin-engine fighters compete for India’s need to operate from the 40,000-tonne indigenous aircraft carrier (IAC). The aircraft carrier will be commissioned in August after completing sea trials, which are currently underway.


India’s multi-role carrier-borne fighters (MRCBF) procurement program seeks to acquire 57 naval jets to outfit with India’s first IAC. However, the exact figure is still being sorted out.


Garcia, who had piloted Super Hornet in the US Navy, had said that the Boeing type was ideal for India, stressing that the Block III configuration – which is about to enter US service – plays an essential role in generating a uniform tactical picture.

In an interview with FlightGlobal, he also revealed details about the aircraft’s capabilities that would be evaluated.

“He [Garcia] feels the type will integrate well with other US equipment in service with the Indian navy, such as the Lockheed Martin/Sikorsky MH-60R anti-submarine warfare helicopter and Boeing P-8I Neptune, the Indian variant of the 737-derived P-8A.

Moreover, a Super Hornet acquisition would also allow the Indian Navy to work more closely with the US Navy and Royal Australian Air Force, both of which operate Super Hornets.”

Garcia mentioned the Super Hornet’s advanced electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, wide cockpit displays, and ‘open systems’ architecture, allowing quicker electronics updates.

Is Rafale Marine A Better Option?
Dassault Aviation and Boeing have been aggressively promoting their fighter jet’s capabilities, citing substantial advantages over their rival.

One advantage the Super Hornet has over the Rafale, according to Garcia, is the ability to fold its wings, making it simpler to get into an elevator. Boeing has also designed a mechanism for Indian deck crews to load and unload the Super Hornet onto and off Indian ship elevators.

Super Hornet-Block III
File Image: Boeing-Super Hornets
Furthermore, Garcia has also previously emphasized that the Super Hornet had a twin-seat variant that operated from aircraft carriers, whereas Rafale’s naval version was only available in a single-seat configuration. Twin-seat jets are thought to be better suitable for long-distance missions and activities like electronic warfare and ground attack.

On the other hand, French news outlet La Tribune reported last month that the French government has been considering selling four used Rafale Marine jets to the Indian Navy.

The report revealed, “the sale of four used Rafale Marine to the F3-R standard is likely to give a competitive advantage to France against the Americans in the context of the Indian call for tenders to equip the INS Vikrant.

These four recently modernized devices could indeed be quickly put into service on the Indian aircraft carrier.”