Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched Operation Sindoor to "punish" Pakistan after blaming it for the Pahalgam militant attack without offering any evidence. He then quickly proceeded to seek and accept a US-brokered ceasefire within 100 hours of launching military strikes on Pakistan. Now he claims that India has succeeded in its objectives for Operation Sindoor.
Let's examine Mr. Modi's claim of victory after seeking and accepting a ceasefire so soon after launching a large military operation. In terms of diplomacy, India clearly failed to prove its allegations against Pakistan to gain the support of the international community. Many of India's closest friends, including the US and Israel, condemned the Pahalgam attack but none held Pakistan responsible for it. At the same time, Pakistan's closest friends China and Turkey stood solidly with Pakistan.
Militarily, India incurred heavy losses, including the loss of its most advanced Rafale fighter jets in a major aerial battle with the Pakistan Air Force. In fact, Mr. Modi was stunned by the robustness of Pakistan's retaliatory precision strikes with high-speed missiles and drone swarms. He said: "Instead of supporting India's strike against terrorism, Pakistan started attacking India itself". He clearly wasn't expecting it when he ordered missile strikes against Pakistan.
As to Mr. Modi's other claims about India's Operation Sindoor's "successes" against Pakistan, here's a good summation of their reality as seen by a veteran Indian diplomat MK Bhadrakumar:
"The bottom line is, Pakistan has demonstrated its nuclear deterrent capability. It is as simple as that. If Operation Sindoor were to be repeated every now and then, it would only have the same results and be halted unceremoniously within 100 hours. Eventually, it will not only lose all novelty to our ecstatic TV audience, but a troubled nation may eventually start blaming an inept leadership. Pakistan is a major military power. Creating potholes in an odd runway or rendering a radar dysfunctional temporarily will not intimidate that country. Succinctly put, it must be far better for India to take help from Trump, who harbors no animus against us, to solve the problem and move on with life".
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23 comments:
This time he looks bad. All those kisses and hugs, deep down a hater.
He has made India a land of hate.
New York Times says both sides, more drama and less damage.
Sushant Singh
@SushantSin
"Chinese weapons gave Pakistan a new edge against India
America and its allies are now scrambling for details"
This is what the headline from
@TheEconomist
is that will be read globally. And not the cringeworthy WhatsApp uncle PIB release of yesterday.
https://x.com/SushantSin/status/1923039592627712062
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For military officials from outside the region, the most intriguing one was Pakistan's use of advanced Chinese fighter jets and missiles in aerial combat with Western-made counterparts. What's more, Pakistan claims that its Chinese J-10C fighters and their PL-15 air-to-air missiles prevailed
https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/05/15/chinese-weapons-gave-pakistan-a-new-edge-against-india
Sushant Singh
@SushantSin
Not one analysis in our newspapers so far says what is obvious to everyone, that the events of the last few days have been one big diplomatic failure for India. All those Vishwaguru and Vishwamitra boasts, and nasty speeches in falsetto have come to nought.
https://x.com/SushantSin/status/1922854977266930027
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Loss of face as far as diplomacy is concerned: Former External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha
By Preethi Nair
https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2025/May/15/loss-of-face-as-far-as-diplomacy-is-concerned-former-external-affairs-minister-yashwant-sinha
NEW DELHI: India has suffered some major diplomatic losses during the India-Pakistan conflict and one of them was the ‘internationalisation of Kashmir and the efforts to hyphenate the two by other countries, said former External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha.
In a conversation with this newspaper, Sinha said, “Our diplomacy has taken a hit as Pakistan has not been condemned by any countries” for sponsoring cross-border terrorism against India and being responsible for the killing of 26 innocents in the Pahalgam attack.
Sinha, who served as a minister in the Vajpayee government from 2002-2004, said during the Kargil war, the entire world supported India. Quoting an interview of Vajpayee, Sinha said that Vajpayee turned down an invitation by Washington during the Kargil war.
“Nobody ever told us that we were wrong, or that Pakistan was right, or that we should ask our troops to call off the operations. The most telling example is that the then US President Bill Clinton invited Vajpayee to Washington and to settle the issue as Nawaz Sharif was also there. But he refused to go,” said Sinha.
However, India stood isolated during the current conflict, he said. Despite strong opposition by India, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) allotted a loan package to Pakistan. “No other country stood with us even as we abstained from the meeting.”
Pakistan had the clear support of China throughout the conflict, he said. “Pakistan could not have used Chinese equipment without their permission. During that period, even Nepal was advising us to de-escalate. The fact of the matter is that Pakistan had the open support of Turkey and Azerbaijan,” he added.
While the US claims that it has averted a ‘nuclear war between the two countries by its effective intervention, Sinha said that it is a departure from the stated position taken by India since 1972.
Sinha asserted that by entering into a conditional ceasefire, India has raised the threshold. “Gola and golie rhymes very well, but that raises the threshold. It means that if they fire a bullet at us, we’ll fire a cannon at them. We raised the threshold for ourselves by this statement.”
Sushant Singh
@SushantSin
From the
@lemonde
edit on India-Pakistan. Forget the stenography on Indian newspapers’ pages, this is what the global narrative is.
https://x.com/SushantSin/status/1922880838812762576
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Le Monde India-Pakistan: A clash for nothing
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2025/05/13/india-pakistan-a-conflict-for-nothing_6741224_23.html
Not only did the clash between the two neighboring regional powers – the most serious in decades – not have a victor, but Narendra Modi's intended deterrent effect on Pakistan and terrorist groups remains to be seen.
In four days of drone strikes, missile launches and artillery fire, India and Pakistan came dangerously close to the worst possible outcome. The ceasefire, which was secured on May 10 with the United States's assistance, remains fragile, according to a speech Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave two days later. He said that the punitive operation against its neighbor had only been suspended.
Modi, who had told Vladimir Putin in 2022, after the invasion of Ukraine, that "this is not the time for war," now nearly led his country into yet another conflict with Pakistan. He sought to avenge a particularly heinous terrorist attack carried out on April 22 against Indian tourists in Kashmir. The attackers had asked the men to declare whether they were Hindu or Muslim, before cold-bloodedly gunning them down, point blank, in front of their families.
The Indian prime minister chose force over diplomacy by attacking alleged terrorist targets in Pakistan's Punjab region. Without providing any evidence that Islamabad was involved in the Pahalgam attack, Modi considered that his enemy was guilty as long as it tolerated the presence of terrorist groups on its soil. As expected, the Pakistani army immediately retaliated. The two sworn enemies entered a dangerous escalation, which was, fortunately, halted.
Neither of the two belligerent parties demonstrated their military superiority over the other during these confrontations. This conflict, the most serious in nearly three decades, produced no winner. The intended deterrent effect on terrorist groups remains to be demonstrated, as does the effect on Pakistan.
Modi's ineffectual Kashmir policy
The confrontation did, however, expose India's weaknesses, as it lies stuck between two adversaries, Pakistan and China, both of whom contest some of its territory in the Himalayas.
Read more Subscribers only After the ceasefire, lessons from the worst India-Pakistan clash in 20 years
The Pahalgam attack also highlighted the ineffectual nature of Modi's Kashmir policy, which was supposed to bring peace and security. His normalization policy actually stems from the theories of Hindutva, an ideology created by far-right ideologues a century ago and promoted by Modi in order to Hinduize India. Since 2019, he has placed Kashmir, the only Muslim-majority region in India, under Delhi's direct control, revoking the constitutional autonomy it had enjoyed since 1947 and ending the local land regime that had solely allocated land to Kashmiris. This was an affront to Pakistan.
Pakistan stocks soar to record high amid budget buzz, IMF tranche
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2600857/business-economy
ISLAMABAD: Bulls took charge of the local bourse today, Thursday, as the Pakistan Stock Exchange surged to new heights, fueled by optimism surrounding upcoming budget announcements and the release of a $1 billion tranche by the IMF, analysts said.
Pakistan on Wednesday received the second tranche of special drawing rights worth 760 million ($1,023 million) from the IMF under an extended fund facility (EFF) program. The IMF last week approved a fresh $1.4 billion loan to Pakistan under its climate resilience fund and also approved the first review of its $7 billion program, freeing about $1 billion in cash.
Pakistan’s federal budget for the next fiscal year, starting July, will be finalized within the next four weeks, with scheduled budget talks with the IMF to take place from May 14-23, according to the finance ministry.
The benchmark index witnessed a remarkable intraday rally, climbing as much as 1,453 points before closing with an impressive gain of 1,425 points at 119,961, marking a 1.20% increase and setting a new all-time high.
“Refinery stocks ended the day in the green amid sector-specific developments,” brokerage house Topline Securities said in a daily market review.
“The government is working to finalize a binding legal framework between oil marketing companies and refineries, with key clauses like take-or-pay aimed at resolving ongoing disputes over product upliftment and HSD imports — a move expected to bring greater clarity and stability to the supply chain.”
Market participation also picked up, with total traded volume reaching 695 million shares and a traded value of Rs39.01 billion. Pakistan Refinery Limited topped the volume chart with 50.8 million shares traded.
Samiullah Tariq, head of research and development at Pak Kuwait Investment Company Ltd, said the market was positive due to recent inflows from the IMF, noting the “expectations of further inflows on the back of the IMF Board approval.”
Thursday’s bullish momentum also comes as the market continues to recover from upheaval brought by the most intense military row between Pakistan and India in years last week. The two nuclear-armed nations agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire on Saturday.
One has to agree with MKB. But Modi is too vested in hate of Muslims at the moment. Maybe he will see the light soon?
@Riaz you always say Pak better. Can your media match this?
https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/05/15/indias-broadcast-media-wage-war-on-their-audience
Evidence Emerges of S-400 System Components Destroyed in India: Operator’s Obituary Published - Militarnyi
by Roman Pryhodko
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/evidence-emerges-of-s-400-system-components-destroyed-in-india-operator-s-obituary-published/
Indian media have published an obituary for an operator of the S-400 air defense system component that Pakistan destroyed.
The First Bihar media reported on this.
During repeated strikes between the countries, Pakistan targeted one of the components of the Indian Armed Forces’ S-400 surface-to-air missile system.
According to Indian media, the incident occurred on May 13, 2025, and the deceased was identified as serviceman Rambabu Kumar Singh — a native of the village of Vasilpur, Bihar state.
As the media noted, the serviceman had recently, on April 10, started a new assignment in Jammu and Kashmir and was scheduled to be transferred to Jodhpur. However, he continued his service in that area due to the worsening situation on the border between the countries.
The deceased was an operator of the S-400 surface-to-air missile system, which India purchased from Russia. These systems are actively deployed in the border regions between India and Pakistan.
It should be noted that a few days ago, Pakistan Air Vice Marshal Aurangzeb Ahmad stated during a briefing on targets hit in India that the Pakistani Air Force had succeeded in destroying components of India’s S-400 air defense system during combat operations.
As confirmation of this, the Air Vice Marshal presented satellite images showing that the airbase had been struck in two locations.
For comparison, he also provided satellite images of the same area taken before the start of the conflict.
Meanwhile, India attempted to debunk this information. As part of a working visit, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveled to the Adampur air base to refute the reported strike and appeared in front of one of the S-400 air defense system’s launchers.
In doing so, he arguably confirmed the damage to components of the system more than he denied it. This is because Pakistan had claimed it struck a radar and command post, not a launcher, of which there can be up to 12 units in a single regiment.
In total, India ordered five regimental sets of this system in 2018, for a total cost of approximately $5.5 billion. The first systems began arriving in the country in the fall of 2021.
In the fall of 2024, it was reported that Russia was delaying the delivery of S-400air defense systems to India due to its own needs, specifically, the large number of system components destroyed by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Post by Arnaud Bertrand:
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1921600758887399540
Its (India's) strategy of multi-alignment, both with the Global South and the West, is meant to court people on both "sides" but the result - illustrated by the global reaction to the altercation with Pakistan - is much the contrary: everyone sees India as hedging its bets rather than standing on principle, ultimately breeding distrust from all quarters rather than the support it seeks to cultivate.
Let's be real: in the Global South people almost universally see India as the weak link in the BRICS, the country trying to undermine collective South-South cooperation whenever it conflicts with its parallel ambitions of being embraced by Western powers.
India's strong Islamophobia also obviously doesn't help when such a huge proportion of the Global South is Muslim...
And in the West it's much the same story: people look at things like Modi's record at home, its strong ties with Russia, and view India as a player that they don't really identify with.
And on top of that, when it comes to the West there's the fact that India is a) at a very different stage of economic development than they are and b) has a very different culture and historical context.
All this means that there's bound to be a persistent undercurrent of othering in how the West approaches its relationship with India: they tend to see India with a mix of colonial condescension and strategic necessity. And the gap in respective conditions and development status would anyhow prevent India from being fully embraced as a "natural ally" despite superficial diplomatic overtures.
Layered on top of this is the corrosive media environment in India itself and the experience most people have when they interact with many nationalist Indians on social media: to remain polite, one gets the impression that there's an insurmountable gap between how India sees itself on the world stage and how others perceive it.
I'm not going to be paternalistic myself and tell India what it ought to do but one thing is clear: when someone claims 'International Media has turned viciously against Bharat,' they should maybe reflect on whether it isn't the inevitable result of a multi-alignment strategy that has ultimately aligned India with nobody's true interests but its own. And whether the knee-jerk defensive victimhood narrative prevents honest self-reflection about precisely that.
#Modi Under Increasing Pressure From Top 3 World Powers. #Russia Joins #US, #China in Urging #India-#Pakistan Talks Resumption. #Kashmir #NuclearWeapons #Bunyanunmarsoos https://www.deccanherald.com//world/after-china-russia-joins-us-in-nudging-india-to-restart-stalled-dialogue-with-pakistan-3544545
By Anirban Bhaumik
New Delhi: Russia has joined the United States in nudging India to restart dialogue with Pakistan, even as a four-day-long cross-border flare-up earlier this month put the two South Asian nations on the brink of war.
Not only Moscow and Washington DC, but Beijing too recently expressed hope that India and Pakistan would build on the momentum of the May 10 understanding to halt cross-border military actions and “avoid the recurrence of conflict, properly handle differences through dialogue and negotiation, and return to the track of political settlement”.
Moscow consistently advocates the resumption of dialogue and an increase in the level of mutual trust between India and Pakistan, Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, told journalists. She was responding to a question on Russia’s position on the understanding India and Pakistan reached on May 10 to stop the cross-border military offensives and counter-offensives.
The US has also been calling for “direct talks” between India and Pakistan. “What we are happy to see is a ceasefire, and that’s where our focus remains. We want to see direct talks (between New Delhi and Islamabad),” Tommy Pigott, the principal deputy spokesperson of the US State Department, said in Washington, D.C. He referred to President Donald Trump’s words of applause for Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan “for choosing the path of peace”.
Trump has been repeatedly claiming over the past few days that his administration brokered the ‘ceasefire’ between India and Pakistan and thus avoided the death of millions of people in a nuclear war by threatening the two South Asian nations that the US would suspend trade with both if they continued the cross-border military offensives and counter-offensives. India strongly and repeatedly rejected the US claims and stressed that its Director General of Military Operations and his counterpart in Pakistan had worked out an understanding to halt the military actions and counteractions.
New Delhi also dismissed the US claim that India had agreed to have dialogues with Pakistan on a broad set of issues in a neutral venue.
The calls from Moscow, Washington, D.C., and Beijing for resumption of direct talks appear to be endorsing Pakistan’s plea for resumption of its “composite dialogue” with India – a process, which remained suspended for the past 12 years.
Not only did Sharif, himself, express Islamabad’s willingness to start peace talks with New Delhi, but his deputy and foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, also told the Pakistan Senate on Thursday: “We have told the world that we will hold a composite dialogue (with India).” He, however, reiterated that any attempt by India to block Pakistan's water would be treated as “an act of war.” India put in abeyance its Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan, in response to the April 22 killing of 26 people, mostly tourists at Baisaran near Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir by the terrorists owing allegiance to The Resistance Force, a front of the Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) based in the neighbouring country.
The words of Sharif and Dar were echoed by Russia, China and the US, the three permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi made it clear that if his government would ever hold talks with the neighbouring country’s government, only two issues would be discussed – the end of anti-India cross-border terrorism from the territory of Pakistan and the end of Pakistan’s illegal occupation over the areas of the Indian Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
Pakistani cyber team caused severe damage to Indian communications, disabling official govt emails, OTP infrastructure
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2546050/security-sources-reveal-details-of-pakistans-massive-cyberattack-against-india
Security sources has shared details regarding major cyber counter-offensive by Pakistan, under Operation Bunyanum Marsoos, launched in response to Indian aggression, targeting key infrastructure sectors across India.
The cyber wing of Pakistan’s armed forces was “actively involved” in the operation, inflicted significant disruptions across multiple Indian domains, including power infrastructure and petroleum systems, they added.
Sources revealed that the Pakistani cyber team caused severe damage to Indian communications, disabling official government emails and the OTP infrastructure, adding that national communications suffered heavy disruption.
Sources stated that India’s surveillance systems were also compromised. Hackers destroyed communication hardware and defaced numerous Indian websites, they said.
Servers at Indian airports were taken down, impacting the Indian Air Force’s communications and interrupting railway systems across several regions, security sources revealed.
Sources further said the Pakistani team gained access to India's national, eastern, northern, and western load dispatch centres, temporarily disabling systems, adding that the breach cut electricity to approximately 80% of Indian consumers for a limited period.
According to internal reports, over 4,600 power feeders in Maharashtra, 3,600 in Uttar Pradesh, and more than 600 in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) were hacked and disconnected.
In Indian Punjab, two AI-powered servers at the load dispatch centre were disabled. Meanwhile, in Karnataka, more than 235 solar and wind grid stations were hacked and rendered inoperative, they added.
Sources also confirmed that databases of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (HPCL) and Indraprastha Gas Ltd (IGPL) were targeted, adding that over 4,400 government and public-sector communication routers were also brought down.
They added that a large-scale Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack was launched on major Indian government, military, air force, stock exchange, and public-sector servers, which paralysed internal communications and email/OTP workflows.
“More than 3,500 CCTV cameras installed in government buildings, hospitals, highways, and public zones were also reportedly hacked,” sources said. In IIOJK, over 250 key ISP routers were compromised, resulting in localised internet outages, they added.
The operation accessed and extracted data from over 90 government and corporate sector websites, including those belonging to the Indian Air Force, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd., Border Security Force, Unique Identification Authority of India, and Indian Railways.
Airport servers in Mumbai, Delhi, and Kolkata were among those hacked, sources shared. The Indian Air Force’s communication systems across its northern, southern, and western commands were also disrupted while Indian Railways experienced operational delays due to compromised servers, they added.
Pakistan Armed Forces conducted Operation Bunyanum Marsoos on May 10 as part of the military conflict 'Marka-e-Haq' in response to Indian military’s dastardly attacks that began on the night of May 6 and 7, resulting in the loss of innocent civilian lives, including women, children, and the elderly.
On May 10, Pakistan launched Operation Bunyanum Marsoos and deployed its Al-Fatah missile and targeted multiple Indian military installations. However, after the intervention of US President Donald Trump, a full and immediate ceasefire was reached between India and Pakistan.
Red Marker - پیرِ ٹویٹر
@RedMarkar
Embarrassment of #India continued, this time an article from Switzerland 🇨ðŸ‡.
Downing of French Rafale during #Indian attack on #Pakistan offers lessons for West
https://x.com/RedMarkar/status/1923406110410613160
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https://www.nzz.ch/english/downing-of-indian-fighter-jet-offers-lessons-for-west-ld.1884492
During last week's attack against targets in Pakistan and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, India lost at least one modern French-built jet to a Chinese-made fighter. The loss represents a call for Europe to examine its own military strategies.
Georg Häsler, Cian Jochem
A Rafale with tail number BSD 001 shortly after delivery in 2020. A jet of this kind was shot down during last week's Indian mission against Pakistan.
Summary
The reported downing of an Indian Rafale jet by a Pakistani air-defense system made in China raises concerns about the effectiveness of Western military technologies.
Europe's strategic autonomy relies heavily on the French-made Rafale, while countries like Australia have opted to use the more versatile American-made F-35 stealth attack fighter.
Experts caution that Western air forces must improve their readiness against Russian and Chinese defense systems, as relying solely on modern technology without good situational awareness is insufficient. On social media, enthusiasts and experts are sharing photos and videos of wreckage from an Indian Air Force Rafale fighter jet, including a tail fin and engine nearby. Pakistan is said to have shot down the French-made plane in combat, presumably with a Chinese Chengdu J-10 multi-role fighter, a model known as the «Mighty Dragon,» and a PL-15E air-to-air missile.
For India, the operation – code-named "Sindoor" – appears to have turned into a disaster. Instead of being able to take out their targets quickly, unnoticed and without losses – as the Americans and Israelis have typically done – the Indian pilots faced fierce resistance. Islamabad claims to have shot down a total of three Rafale fighters and two other Soviet-built jets, although these assertions have not been verified.
Evidence of what in fact happened has been plain for everyone to see. However, Delhi continues to deny the losses, and maintains that Operation Sindoor was a complete success. According to the government, the IAF used precise airstrikes to destroy training camps and weapons depots maintained by two Pakistani terrorist cells. India attributes responsibility to these groups for a mid-April attack in Kashmir that killed over two dozen tourists.
Little information on Rafale's air-to-air combat capabilities
Delhi asserts that the government in Islamabad backed the April attacks in the Himalayas. But instead of teaching Pakistan a lesson with its response, India suffered heavy losses. The news that a Rafale had been shot down immediately pushed down share prices for Dassault Aviation, the fighter jet's Paris-based manufacturer. At the same time, shares of Chengdu, the company that manufactures the J-10, rose.
Investors are not the only ones who are unsettled by the events. In the current geopolitical environment, the Rafale is of significant strategic importance to Europe. What if the system is not up to the task of engaging in air-to-air combat against Russian and Chinese air defenses? What would that mean for Europe's efforts to reach a point of strategic autonomy, which are heavily reliant on the Rafale?
During last week's attack against targets in Pakistan and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, India lost at least one modern French-built jet to a Chinese-made fighter. The loss represents a call for Europe to examine its own military strategies.
Georg Häsler, Cian Jochem
https://www.nzz.ch/english/downing-of-indian-fighter-jet-offers-lessons-for-west-ld.1884492
France's «armée de l'Air,» as its air force is called, would use Rafale jets to fly potential missions carrying the country's own nuclear bombs. This means they serve as the backbone of the country's nuclear deterrence capabilities. French President Emmanuel Macron has raised the prospect of expanding this deterrence program, which is largely directed against Russia, to the whole of Europe. This would be particularly critical if the United States were to withdraw from NATO, and especially if Washington were to retract its commitment to protect Europe under the U.S. nuclear umbrella. In purely technical terms, the Rafale and the Chengdu J-10 are comparable – but the Rafale does have some advantages. Both jets belong to the class of so-called 4.5-generation fighters, meaning they are consistently upgraded with the latest capabilities, although their signature is (mostly) visible on radar, unlike that of the American-made F-35 stealth strike fighter. Among other things, the Rafale has a "multi-sensor data fusion" capacity, which provides pilots with a highly detailed description of the tactical situation drawn from multiple sources, with the system automatically combining these streams of information in the background.
Controlling the narrative
Most of the information available about the fighter jets comes from manufacturers' descriptions. However, this says little in practice about their practical air-to-air combat capabilities. The information that has come to light about the deployment of the Rafale jets in the early hours of May 7 lends itself to more revealing conclusions.
According to India's Defense Ministry, the mission began at 1:15 a.m. local time, and lasted exactly 23 minutes. For the first time since 1971, India flew attacks within Pakistan's internationally recognized borders. This was a deliberate provocation based on an incomplete assessment of the situation, as India underestimated Pakistan's capabilities and relied too heavily on its own perceived technological superiority.
Behind the so-called Line of Control, the frontier between the Indian-controlled and Pakistani-controlled parts of Kashmir, Pakistan has developed integrated, multi-layered air defense capabilities. These include Chinese ground-to-air systems and a network of airfields from which fighter planes can take off at a moment's notice. Radar systems, reconnaissance aircraft and possibly also intelligence data transmitted via China appear to enable very quick reaction times.
Some of the Indian pilots managed to penetrate this defensive shield and carry out their mission in Pakistan. However, fierce air battles appear to have taken place over Indian territory. Open-source intelligence sources indicate that around 100 fighter jets were involved. The wreckage of the Rafale and the Chinese-made missile that may have hit the jet were discovered and secured on the Indian side of the Line of Control.
Whether the Pakistani air force pursued the attackers as they raced back to India, or whether Pakistan was able to mount an active defense in the forward-lying areas thanks to its high state of readiness, is a matter of dispute between India and Pakistan. Each of them has sought to secure control of the narrative of the events.
During last week's attack against targets in Pakistan and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, India lost at least one modern French-built jet to a Chinese-made fighter. The loss represents a call for Europe to examine its own military strategies.
Georg Häsler, Cian Jochem
https://www.nzz.ch/english/downing-of-indian-fighter-jet-offers-lessons-for-west-ld.1884492
Operational planning as a key factor
At a news conference in New Delhi on May 9, Wing Commander Vyomika Singh, an Indian Air Force spokesperson, said that the Pakistani military had attacked India with drones and ballistic missiles hours before Operation Sindoor was launched. «Pakistan did not close its civil airspace,» Singh stressed, adding that Islamabad was thus «using civil airliners as a shield, knowing fully well that its attack on India would elicit a swift air-defense response.»
Nevertheless, it was India that ultimately drove the escalation. An operation on the scale of «Sindoor» is not carried out spontaneously, as it requires a certain amount of lead time to prepare. According to experts on the Rafale jet, the errors that led to the jet's downing appear to have occurred precisely during this period of operational planning.
On the one hand, the IAF may have underestimated the capabilities of the J-10 in combination with those of the PL-15 guided missile, as well as the degree to which Pakistan and China were sharing intelligence. On the other hand, the Rafale’s role in the attack formation – or "strike package" – raises questions. Open sources suggest that the French jet was used in a dual role: both as an interceptor with air-to-air missiles and for ground combat using SCALP cruise missiles.
This kind of operation is typically carried out in strike forces made up of several combat and specialized aircraft. These often include bombers, jet fighters escorting them to protect them from enemy fighter jets, tanker aircraft for in-flight refueling and aircraft to contend with the enemy's air defenses. However, according to the information available, India's Rafale jets seem to have been practically on their own in the critical moments of the deployment.
Probable Indian Air Force strike package
Aircraft Role Assignment
Rafale Air-to-ground with SCALP and air-to-air with Meteor Attacking ground targets, alternating with air combat
MiG-29 Air-to-air combat Escort with limited sensors
Su-30 Air-to-air combat Air superiority
Heron Mk2 Reconnaissance drone Surveillance and reconnaissance
Phalcon or Netra Coordination Early warning and control
IL-78 Tanker Mission sustainability
Basis: Existing Indian Air Force fleet in combination with standards
NZZ / geo.
In other words, even a cutting-edge fighter aircraft is vulnerable when it has incomplete situational awareness and risky operational planning. Specialist publications also say that Pakistan appears to have superior aircraft for airborne early warning and control.
Lessons learned in Australia
For potential conflicts between Western air forces and China or in Europe's operational surroundings, the events offer several specific lessons:
During last week's attack against targets in Pakistan and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, India lost at least one modern French-built jet to a Chinese-made fighter. The loss represents a call for Europe to examine its own military strategies.
Georg Häsler, Cian Jochem
https://www.nzz.ch/english/downing-of-indian-fighter-jet-offers-lessons-for-west-ld.1884492
Conventional air warfare is not a thing of the past: At present, complex, large-scale operations cannot be carried out using only drones and new types of guided weapons. Rather, they still require a pilot's power of judgment. Given this fact, Europe's militaries must continue to procure manned bombers and fighter jets.
China is catching up: While defending itself against India’s attacks, Pakistan benefited from a wide array of Chinese technology. It evidently proved possible for Pakistan to network its air defenses on the ground and in the air so efficiently that the IAF was not able to exploit its own advantages fully. NATO and the militaries of European countries should be prepared for the fact that Russia has also increasingly begun relying on Chinese know-how since the war in Ukraine. This makes having real-time situation awareness and encrypted communications just as important as having enough of the right arms and ammunition.
The F-35 is the key system of Europe's air forces: Pilots can see further using the sensors carried by this fifth-generation fighter than is possible for a fourth-generation jet. In addition, as a kind of data center on wings, the F-35 also requires far fewer escort aircraft to fly counterattacks deep behind enemy lines. Given these facts, the Europeans will continue to be dependent on American technology for conventional deterrence.
Australia, which is directly exposed to the disputes in the Indo-Pacific region, has consistently geared its air force doctrine toward deterring China with precise "deep strike" capabilities. These are based on use of the F-35, which can simultaneously carry out reconnaissance and attack missions as a networked platform. Australia also has plans to use autonomous escort drones, or what are called "loyal wingmen." Close cooperation with the U.S. and other partners remain a crucial aspect of the country's plans.
For now, the downing of India’s Rafale jet has sent a warning to the Europeans that modern technology alone is no longer enough to enable them to stand up to China or Russia effectively. The events show that it will be crucial to deploy resources in close coordination with reliable partners. India tried to go it alone – and failed.
Rabia Akhtar
@Rabs_AA
With all due respect...to claim that India has 'defused' Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent by pushing conventional strikes deeper over successive crises is to conflate tactical success with strategic stability. The absence of nuclear retaliation is not proof of deterrence failure, to me, it is proof of its function: to prevent escalation to the unthinkable. Pakistan’s restraint should not be misread as weakness but understood as part of a deliberate doctrine of calibrated signaling paired with counterforce readiness and countervalue restraint.
Moreover, this framing oversimplifies the risks of normalizing cross-border military action in a nuclear environment. Precision strikes do not remove the dangers of cumulative escalation, especially in a context with compressed geography, politicized publics, and absent escalation control mechanisms.
The suggestion in this article that Pakistan’s deterrence is now void ignores a central fact: India is still calibrating its responses, issuing post-hoc disclaimers about restraint, and most importantly, accepting mediated ceasefires. If deterrence were truly defused, that caution wouldn’t exist.
Folks! Strategic restraint is not submission. It is a responsibility. And the test of deterrence isn’t whether war starts, it’s always whether it stays limited. By that measure, Pakistan’s full-spectrum deterrence remains intact and functional.
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IndiaToday
@IndiaToday
·
May 16
#OPINION | India has defused Pak's biggest weapon - its ability to cry nuclear wolf
By @manpreetsethi01
https://x.com/Rabs_AA/status/1923535899389739342
Did Pakistan just win against India?
By Rafia Zakaria
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5302672-did-pakistan-win/
There are many reasons for Pakistan to claim victory. First, it was able to show the strength of its strategic partnership with China, which has been supplying Pakistan with military hardware such as the PL-15 missiles that downed the Rafales with AI-guided precision, without ever having to leave their own territory.
Second, Trump intervened at a time when Pakistan had just finished its retaliatory operation against India and successfully caused damage to Indian military targets. This allowed it to claim that India had capitulated because of the strength of these strikes.
Third, the fight brought the issue of the embattled Kashmir region — a Muslim-majority area that has been occupied by Indian forces since 1947 and whose residents deplore the excesses of the tens of thousands of Indian troops stationed there — back on the international stage.
Fourth, the intervention by the U.S. as a mediator weakened India’s claim that America was backing its fight against Pakistan and would look away while India slammed Pakistan with strikes under the pretext of eradicating terrorism.
In a May 11 press conference, India’s military top brass was asked again and again about the downed planes — queries that were not met by denials, but with the Air Force chief noting that “losses are part of combat” and that details would be revealed at appropriate times. In Parliament, Rahul Gandhi, the main opposition leader, questioned the rationale of Modi’s ruling party, calling the whole operation a massive foreign policy blunder that had succeeded in uniting Pakistan and China to create a formidable front against India.
Terrorist camps, as some commentators noted, can be set up almost anywhere, and a few drone attacks would not make a difference. America, after all, still lost in Afghanistan despite thousands of drone strikes.
In Pakistan, the military — whose popularity had waned in recent years following its involvement in the arrest and detention of former Prime Minister Imran Khan — is ascendant again, feted and festooned with praise from the people. It was a David versus Goliath match up, given that the Indian military has five times the budget and military might as Pakistan. David appears to have won.
How the Indian Media Amplified Falsehoods in the Drumbeat of War
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/17/world/asia/india-news-media-misinformation.html
NYT slams Indian media for airing fabricated news
https://www.radio.gov.pk/17-05-2025/nyt-slams-indian-media-for-airing-fabricated-news
US based daily newspaper, the New York Times has slammed Indian media for amplifying falsehoods and airing fabricated news during war with Pakistan.
In a report, the paper noted that while social media news are often fake, disinformation on mainstream Indian media has served a severe blow to journalism in India.
The paper wrote that even some long-trusted media outlets and journalists reported unverified and concocted information, having no evidence or facts to corroborate.
Later on, like Indian attack on Pakistani nuclear base, downing of Pakistani fighter jets and blasting part of Karachi port. None of the stories was true.
The paper quoted how prominent Indian TV channels aired the story of Indian Navy attacking Karachi and fact-checkers eventually found that those visuals were from Gaza.
The New York Times quoted Prof Sumitra Badrinathan that social media misinformation was rife during India-Pakistan tension in 2019 but this time even the credible journalists and mainstream news outlets ran straight-up fabricated stories.
Exclusive: Lammy says UK, US working to ensure enduring India-Pakistan ceasefire, dialogue | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/lammy-says-uk-us-working-ensure-enduring-india-pakistan-ceasefire-dialogue-2025-05-17/
Lammy says countries should respect treaties after India suspends water pact
India-Pakistan ceasefire is fragile, say diplomats, analysts
UK's Lammy accuses Russia of 'obfuscation' over Ukraine
ISLAMABAD, May 17 (Reuters) - Britain is working with the U.S. to ensure a ceasefire between India and Pakistan endures and that "confidence-building measures" and dialogue take place, foreign minister David Lammy said on Saturday.
Pakistan has said Britain and other countries, in addition to the United States, played a major role in de-escalating the worst fighting in decades between the nuclear-armed South Asian rivals, which erupted last week. A rapid diplomatic effort to broker the ceasefire succeeded on May 10, but diplomats and analysts say it remains fragile.
"We will continue to work with the United States to ensure that we get an enduring ceasefire, to ensure that dialogue is happening and to work through with Pakistan and India how we can get to confidence and confidence-building measures between the two sides," Lammy told Reuters in Pakistan's capital Islamabad at the end of a two-day visit.
Pakistan and India fired missiles onto each other's territory during weeks of tensions after a deadly attack on tourists in the contested region of Kashmir that New Delhi blames on Islamabad. Pakistan denies involvement.
U.S. President Donald Trump said after the ceasefire was struck that talks should take place in a third-country venue but no dates or location for the talks have been announced.
"These are two neighbours with a long history but they are two neighbours that have barely been able to speak to one other over this past period, and we want to ensure that we do not see further escalation and that the ceasefire endures," Lammy said.
Asked about India's suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, potentially squeezing Pakistan's water supply, Lammy said: "We would urge all sides to meet their treaty obligations."
Delhi said last month it had "put in abeyance" its participation in the 1960 pact, which governs use of the Indus river system, a move Pakistan says it would consider an act of war if it disrupted access to water in the agriculturally dependent nation.
Lammy said Britain would also continue to work with Pakistan on countering "terrorism", saying that it is "a terrible blight on this country and its people, and of course on the region."
'OBFUSCATION' BY RUSSIA ON UKRAINE
Lammy accused Moscow of obfuscating after talks between Ukraine and Russia on a possible ceasefire ended in less than two hours and Trump said "nothing could happen" until he had met directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Indus Waters Treaty cannot be unilaterally suspended: World Bank president
Pakistan formally responds to India’s recent communication regarding the Indus Waters Treaty
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2545864/indus-waters-treaty-cannot-be-unilaterally-suspended-world-bank-president
The Indus Waters Treaty cannot be unilaterally suspended or altered, World Bank President Ajay Banga said last week, emphasising that any changes to the agreement require mutual consent from both India and Pakistan.
In an exclusive interview with CNBC-TV18, Banga said the World Bank’s responsibilities are limited to administrative functions established at the treaty’s inception. He stated that the Bank plays no decision-making role in the Indus Waters Treaty and acts solely as a facilitator
“We have to pay the fees of those guys through a trust fund that was set up at the Bank at the time of creation of the treaty. That’s our role. We have no role to play beyond that,” he added. He noted that any amendment or suspension of the agreement requires mutual consent from both countries.
“There is no provision in the treaty to allow for suspension the way it was drawn up. It either needs to be gone, or replaced by another one, and that requires the two countries to want to agree,” he said.
Banga confirmed that the World Bank has not received any formal communication from either government regarding new developments.
https://x.com/MDUmairKh/status/1922598383652339856
Meanwhile, Pakistan has formally responded to India’s recent communication regarding the Indus Waters Treaty, affirming that the agreement remains fully operational and binding on both parties, according to the Foreign Office.
In a statement issued on Wednesday, Foreign Office spokesperson Shafqat Ali Khan stated that Pakistan has made it clear that any violation of the treaty will be deemed unacceptable.
“The Indus Waters Treaty is a legally binding international agreement, and both parties are obligated to uphold its provisions,” he said.
FO spokesperson said Pakistan reiterated that it would continue to defend its rights under the agreement at all international forums.
Following the attack in Pahalgam, Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan and shut down the Attari-Wagah border crossing — a key point for trade and civilian movement between the two nations — with immediate effect.
Quote from My Enemy's Enemy: India in Afghanistan from the Soviet Invasion to the US Withdrawal by Avinash Paliwal
“Pakistan, on the other hand, despite its unhealthy interference in domestic Afghan affairs, has nearly convinced the world of its indispensability for bringing peace in that country. To other observers however, India is waging a well-calibrated, low-level proxy war against Pakistan through Afghanistan. Allegedly, Indian intelligence agencies run training camps for militant Baloch separatists on Afghan soil in order to foment insurgencies in Pakistan. 11 Given the deep historical antipathy between Kabul and Islamabad, India’s presence in Afghanistan typifies the quintessential case of the Machiavellian perfidy. 12 Archetypical of ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend,’ not just India’s four consulates (in Jalalabad, Kandahar, Mazar-e-Sharif, and Herat) but also its humanitarian aid and developmental assistance to Afghanistan is viewed with suspicion by Pakistan. 13 Those who subscribe to the latter view are convinced that hostility between India and Pakistan lies at the heart of the current war in Afghanistan. 14 After all, the friendships that India cultivated in Afghanistan are indicative of its anti-Pakistan bias. For starters, India’s political, moral, and military support to the erstwhile anti-Taliban and anti-Pakistan United Front during the 1990s is an open secret"
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“On 2 January 2016, four militants belonging to the United Jihad Council, a militant organisation based out of Pakistan-administered Kashmir (and allegedly supported by the Pakistani intelligence services), attacked the Pathankot Air Force Station, part of the western air command of the Indian Air Force, killing seven Indian security personnel, one civilian, and the four attackers. 13 Resulting in national outcry, and severe criticism of the government in mishandling the defence of the air base, the attack derailed the India-Pakistan thaw. Complicating the situation further, a former Indian naval officer, Kulbhushan Jadhav, was caught, allegedly, entering Pakistan via Iran. He gave a video recorded confession, parts of which were made publicly available by Pakistan, and declared that he was commissioned to the R& AW from the navy in 2003 and had opened a small business in Chabahar, Iran, from where he undertook subversive activities in Karachi and Balochistan"
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“In July 2009, at a meeting in Sharm-el-Sheikh, Manmohan Singh met his Pakistani counterpart, Yousuf Raza Gilani, to assess the possibility of resuming dialogue. India had offered a dossier of evidence showing how the 26/ 11 attacks were planned and executed from Pakistan’s soil and its lone survivor, Ajmal Kasab, was a Pakistani national. In return, Gilani allegedly told Singh that Pakistan had three Ajmal Kasab’s to show in Balochistan and had a dossier on the same, and thus, it would be prudent for India to address Pakistan’s concerns about Balochistan. 146 Gilani had been cautious and limited in his allegations, but the salvo worked. Singh agreed to discuss Balochistan and the associated role of Indian consulates in Afghanistan and issued a joint statement to that effect. 147 The move backfired domestically with the BJP, the CPM, and government allies such as the Samajwadi Party coupled with members of the Congress terming it a sell out"
Quote from My Enemy's Enemy: India in Afghanistan from the Soviet Invasion to the US Withdrawal by Avinash Paliwal
"On 8 July 2016, the Indian army had killed a young Kashmiri militant belonging to the Hizbul Mujahideen (and social media icon) Burhan Wani in an operation. 16 The Kashmir valley erupted in protests, leading to more police firing, and even more deaths and injuries. More than fifty protestors, and two policemen were killed, whereas pellets and rubber bullets wounded nearly 674 persons in a single day, many of whom (mostly teenagers) were blinded by the pellets. 17 Instead of initiating a serious political dialogue, India began to blame Pakistan, a peripheral actor in the protests, for causing the unrest in the first place. In response, on 15 August 2016, the seventieth independence day of India, Modi articulated a shift in India’s approach towards Pakistan from the ramparts of the historic Red Fort as such: ‘I want to express my gratitude to the people of Balochistan, Gilgit, and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, for the way they wholeheartedly thanked me, the way they expressed gratitude to me … people of a distant land I haven’t even seen … when they thank the Indian prime minister, it’s an honour for the 125 crore people of the country’. 18 What for, and how, the people of these regions had thanked Modi was left unsaid. The implicit message was that India was capable of, and perhaps already exercising (both via Afghanistan and otherwise), covert intervention in Pakistan’s internal troubles. The mention of Pakistan’s domestic fault-lines at the Independence Day celebrations in response to unrest in Kashmir, among other issues, was unprecedented. Whether this was empty rhetoric, as in the 1960s when Indian parliamentarians sought to support the Pashtun and Baloch insurgencies in the wake of the 1965 war, or a true shift in India’s security practices like the early 1970s when Indira Gandhi proactively supported the Baloch insurgency, is yet to be seen. But if one is to go by optics, India was now intent on exploiting Pakistan’s fear of strategic encirclement and India’s role in exerting diplomatic pressure on Pakistan’s human rights violations in Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan. That this statement came at a time of high toxicity in Afghanistan-Pakistan relations made it even more potent. Parallel to worsening India-Pakistan relations, Kabul’s relations with Islamabad also took a nosedive after December 2015. Afghan outreach had been dependent on Pakistan’s willingness and capacity to bring different Afghan Taliban factions to the table, not all of which were interested in talking”
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“Pakistan’s allegations of an Afghan-Indian nexus in Balochistan. Sometime in 2009, the Hindu-nationalist fringe group called the Bhagat Singh Kranti Sena, led by R. S. N. Singh and Tejender Singh, provided shelter to Balaach Pardili in New Delhi. 153 A Baloch from Afghanistan, Pardili represented the BLO and was linked to the Hyrbyair Marri group. His presence in India was exposed by The Hindu newspaper on 8 October 2015.154 The MEA, while confirming Pardili’s presence on Indian soil, categorically denied that it supported a policy of hosting Baloch separatists in India"
Quotes from "My Enemy's Enemy: India in Afghanistan from the Soviet Invasion to the US Withdrawal" by Avinash Paliwal
“Another unverified (and perhaps unverifiable) dimension of India’s covert actions against Pakistan was its association with the robust Afghan immigrant community in New Delhi (and the various Afghans who visit Indian hospitals such as Max and Apollo for medical treatment). 163 Mostly settled in south Delhi’s Lajpat Nagar, Jung Pura, and Saket areas, these Afghan exiles, according to various interviewees speaking on condition of strict anonymity, provided a pool of recruits for Indian intelligence agencies. Trained in spy-craft, sabotage, and other lethal skills, these recruits, or their networks on the ground in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border areas, were utilised to gather intelligence and even undertake targeted killings of anti-India militants based in Pakistan. While there is no easy way to authenticate this aspect of India’s covert actions, confidential assertions of the very existence of such programmes highlight how New Delhi may have engaged with Afghan diaspora settled in India. T, for instance, confirms that the R& AW was making ‘efficient use’ of the Afghan students in India for intelligence gathering purposes. 164 Though unaware of offensive covert operations undertaken by India as alleged by Pakistan, he does not reject all Pakistani allegations (even if he would temper down some such allegations).”
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