Mehsud to US: No Deal

"There can be no deal with the US." said Baitullah Mehsud at a press conference in South Waziristan this week as reported by the BBC.

If there's any thing that both Mehsud and the US administration agree on, it is outright rejection of any negotiations or deals with each other. Each side is determined to completely defeat and destroy the other.

Mehsud, a former US captive at Guantanamo, was released in March 2004 after the Americans determined that he would not pose a threat. But it seems that Guantanamo has turned him into a much bigger threat to Pakistan, US and the world than he might have been before he was captured in Afghanistan. Now described by some as more dangerous than Usama Bin Laden or Mullah Omar, Baitullah Mehsud keeps a much lower profile. He refuses to be photographed and keeps his face covered in public. He reaches out to his people through FM radio broadcasts. He crosses the border into Afghanistan at will to fight against the "crusaders." Baituallah Mehsud has been accused of ordering a series of suicide bombings inside Pakistan recently. Pakistani, US and British intelligence agencies also believe he orchestrated Benazir Bhutto's murder last year.

Here is how the BBC correspondent Syed Shoaib Hasan described his encounter with Mehsud this week: In our garden meeting, "Amir Sahib" (honored leader) - as Baitullah Mehsud is affectionately called by his men - smiles and shakes his head when this query is raised. Around us, dozens of militants armed to the teeth listen intently to their leader. The query: "Will your recent deal with Pakistan last?" The answer: "We do not want to fight Pakistan or the army. But if they continue to be slaves to US demands, then we our hands will be forced."

This answer makes it clear that this new deal and the latest ceasefire between the Taleban and Pakistan will be as fragile as the previous ones. Americans and NATO are players in this unfolding drama. They have to be part of any lasting deal. Just as the Taleban must be an essential part of any lasting deal. As long as they are unwilling, the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan's tribal belt will continue and will likely spill over into the rest of the region.

Who Is In Charge: Mehsud or Mullah Omar?

Americans have now been saying for several months that the Taleban and Al-Qaeda have shifted their focus of attacks from Afghanistan to destabilize Pakistan. "Al-Qaeda right now seems to have turned its face toward Pakistan and attacks on the Pakistani government and Pakistan people," US Defense Secretary Robert Gates told the Washington Post on Dec 21, 2007. Most of the recent activities including a big surge in suicide bombings in Pakistan seem to confirm this belief. It appears that Baitullah Mehsud has been the main commander leading the charge against Pakistani military and political leadership, while Mullah Omar has not been heard from. This is likely to change, if today's report in Asia Times On Line turns out to be accurate. ATOL is reporting that Mullah Omar has fired Baitullah Mehsud and decided to turn his attention for a major spring offensive against the US/NATO forces in Afghanistan. Mehsud was expected to provide valuable support to the Taliban in Afghanistan, but instead he directed all his fighters against Pakistani security forces. This has apparently angered Mullah Omar who may personally take charge of the Taleban in Pakistan, in addition to his leadership of the Taleban in Afghanistan. This may also be an indication of split between Al-Qaeda and the Taleban in Pakistan. As recently as Sept, 2007, Usama bin Laden called for a rebellion in Pakistan. The storming of the Red Mosque in Islamabad in July "demonstrated Musharraf's insistence on continuing his loyalty, submissiveness and aid to America against the Muslims ... and makes armed rebellion against him and removing him obligatory," bin Laden said in an audio tape.
While this change of targets from Pakistan to Afghanistan would help relieve pressure in Pakistan in the near future, the Americans and NATO are likely to continue to press President Musharraf to not let up on the Taleban forces to minimize the impact of their planned offensive in Afghanistan.