Monday, January 23, 2023

Pakistan Is Not Collapsing!

Pakistan is currently facing major economic and political crises. These are partly of its own making but mostly the result of external shocks in terms of commodity prices that have exacerbated the nation's balance of payments.  The Pakistani military's unnecessary meddling in politics and resulting political instability have not helped either. The unprecedented floods in the country have further added to the severity of the challenges.  

US and China Compete For Influence in Pakistan. Source: Wall Street Journal


Pakistan's multidimensional crisis has spurred many in India and elsewhere to predict the Pakistani state's imminent collapse. Some disgruntled Pakistanis have also jumped on the doomsayers' bandwagon. What is often ignored in such oft-repeated dire predictions is Pakistan's size and its geopolitical importance in the world. Indian analyst Amit Bhandari has summarized it well in a recent Hindustan Times Op-ed: "Despite the severity of the challenges, Pakistan is unlikely to collapse — largely because of its geostrategic importance. A bailout by the IMF or friendly countries will happen".  Let me expand on Bhandari's comments:

1. The collapse of a large country like Pakistan will be very destabilizing for the South Asia region and the world. Pakistan is the world's 5th most populous country. It has a large military armed with nuclear weapons.

2. Pakistan's location is geopolitically very important. It borders Afghanistan, China, India, Iran and the Indian Ocean.  It has a coastline next to the sea lanes that transport the bulk of the world's oil. It is connected to multiple strategically important regions of the world:  Central Asia, Middle East, South Asia and West Asia.  

3. China, the United States and Gulf Arabs have expressed a strong interest in maintaining Pakistan's stability. All of them are offering assistance to Pakistan.  China will continue to support Pakistan as it tries to stabilize its financial situation, state media quoted President Xi Jinping as saying, according to Reuters. Prince Mohammad Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia has offered to increase loans and investments of over $10 billion to Pakistan, according to Bloomberg.  American officials have said they support the IMF assistance to Pakistan, according to Dawn newspaper

4. Pakistan has received pledges of $10 billion worth of loans and grants to rebuild after devastating floods last year, according to Bloomberg News. The amount pledged exceeds the $8 billion that Pakistan sought at the United Nations Donors Conference in Geneva, Switzerland. 

Debt to GDP Ratios. India 91%, Pakistan 87%. Source: Visual Capitalist

Pakistanis are no strangers to forecasts of their country's collapse. There have been many such forecasts over the last 75 years, starting with its birth.  Western and Indian forecasts of Pakistan's collapse are not new.  Lord Mountbatten, the British Viceroy of India who oversaw the partition agreed with the assessment of Pakistan made by India's leaders when he described Pakistan as a "Nissen hut" or a "temporary tent" in a conversation with Jawarhar Lal Nehru.

Here's the exact quote from Mountbatten: "administratively it [wa]s the difference between putting up a permanent building, a nissen hut or a tent. As far as Pakistan is concerned we are putting up a tent. We can do no more." The Brits and the Hindu leadership of India both fully expected Pakistan to fold soon after partition.


1999 DoD Forecast: Pakistan Disappears by 2015

A 1999 US Defense Department study titled "Asia 2025" forecast Pakistan's collapse by 2015.  It further said that Pakistan would become part of a "South Asian Superstate" controlled by India as a "regional hegemon". Two of the study's contributors were "South Asia experts" of Indian origin. Much of the South Asia section of this study appears to be wishful thinking rather than serious analysis.  Resilient Pakistan has defied this and many other similar forecasts of its demise since its birth. 

Goldman Sachs Forecast Over Next 50 Years

Goldman Sachs analysts Kevin Daly and  Tadas Gedminas project Pakistan's economy to grow to become the world's sixth largest by 2075.  In a research paper titled "The Path to 2075", the authors forecast Pakistan's GDP to rise to $12.7 trillion with per capita income of $27,100.  India’s GDP in 2075 is projected at $52.5 trillion and per capita GDP at $31,300.  Bangladesh is projected to be a $6.3 trillion economy with per capita income of $31,000.  By 2075, China will be the top global economy, followed by India 2nd, US 3rd, Indonesia 4th, Nigeria 5th and Pakistan 6th. The forecast is based primarily on changes in the size of working age populations over the next 50 years.  

OpenAI's ChatGPT on Pakistan's Possible Collapse


There's no question that Pakistan is in the midst of very serious political and economic crises. The nation is deeply divided politically. The country's economic performance is dismal. It is of paramount importance for Pakistanis to come together to deal honestly with their internal political and economic differences. Doing so will help Pakistan's large young population realize their full potential to join the ranks of the world's top ten economies. 

Here's a Wall Street Journal video on US-China Competition in Pakistan:

https://youtu.be/wvw-85CC1t4


 

20 comments:

Imran said...

Riaz Sb plz it's pure assumptions there will be a cost of any bailout

Riaz Haq said...

Imran: "Riaz Sb plz it's pure assumptions there will be a cost of any bailout"

It’s in no one’s interest for a large nuclear armed state to collapse. Hence the bailout. It will help #Pakistan survive but not necessarily thrive. Pakistanis need to resolve their deep internal divisions to thrive.

Imran said...

Ukrain & former Soviet Republics got bailout packages at cost of theior nation security Pakistan has to surrender for a bailout

Riaz Haq said...

Imran: "Ukrain & former Soviet Republics got bailout packages at cost of theior nation security Pakistan has to surrender for a bailout"

US Ambassador Anne Patterson:"The Pakistani establishment, as we saw in 1998 with the nuclear test, does not view assistance -- even sizable assistance to their own entities -- as a trade-off for national security vis-a-vis India"

https://www.riazhaq.com/2022/02/ukraines-lesson-for-pakistan-never-give.html

Indos said...

Many countries are also in difficult situation. Bangladesh and even Philippine face energy crisis. Egypt and BD have been another IMF patient, Sri Lanka has been defaulted. Many nations are in difficulty.

I believe one of the core problems is The Fed tightening policy.

Majumdar said...

While these days Brofessor sb reminds me of the band playing on the Titanic, I have to agree with him. There are far too many players who have a stake in Pak as a going concern.

1. The taller than mountain friend has invested over US$ 60 billion in Pak. Even a country as rich as it cant allow that much money to go down the drain. Pak is also useful as a cats paw in keeping local rival IND in check.
2. As the only state which is ideologically Islamic and is the only Islamic nuclear power, it has a certain brand equity among the brotherly Gulf states. Plus it is a source of manpower and if push comes to shove as a source of military manpower as well. While they may be indifferent to Pakistan being in a mess, there is no way the Keeper of the Two Holy Cities will allow Pak to vanish.
3. The Anglo American alliance too has large diplomatic and military investments in Pak.
4. Last but not the least, PAK or at least the cis Indus provinces are not a bunch of tribals or nomads; they are a settled society of producers who have lived in organised states for 5000 years. They have enough historical experience and ability to run a proper state.

Shirish Dave said...

There is no need to argue or to discuss.
Take a single example.

Who are more happy and where the more prosperity between India and the USA?
More percentage of citizens from India go to USA, than the citizens of USA come to India. Because life in the USA is better than in India.

Similarly more Pakistani and Bengladeshi come to India than the Indian citizens go to Pakistan and Bangladesh. Because life is far better in India. Not only this, but the persons and leaders voted for Pakistan, they themselves opted to reside in India. This is the hypocrisy of majority Muslims.

Radical Muslims are more active than the really secular Muslims.

It is upto the truly secular Muslims to save Islam.

Riaz Haq said...

Shirish: "more Pakistani and Bengladeshi come to India than the Indian citizens go to Pakistan and Bangladesh. Because life is far better in India"

Your comment is based entirely on ignorance and bigotry.

1. Do you know that Pakistanis are happier than Indians, according to the World Happiness Index?

World Happiness Report 2022: India ranks below Pakistan, Finland happiest for fifth year in a row
The index takes into consideration the GDP, social and economic conditions, personal freedom level, and data from social media behaviour of the countries

https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/world-happiness-report-2022-india-ranks-below-pakistan-finland-happiest-for-fifth-year-in-a-row

2. Do you know that more Indians have migrated to Pakistan than the other way around, according to the UN Migration Report?

Nearly half of India’s migrants are in just three countries: the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan and the United States. About 3.5 million Indians live in the UAE, the top destination country for Indian migrants. Over the past two decades, millions of Indians have migrated there to find employment as laborers. Pakistan has the second-largest number of migrants, with 2 million.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/03/india-is-a-top-source-and-destination-for-worlds-migrants/

3. Do you know that Indians are hungrier than Pakistanis, according to the World Hunger Index 2022?

India slips to 107 from 101 in Global Hunger Index; behind Pakistan, Nepal

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/india-slips-to-107-from-101-in-global-hunger-index-behind-pakistan-nepal-441550

Riaz Haq said...

#Russia & #Pakistan might cut unprecedented #oil deal, making #Islamabad yet another #Asian customer of Russian crude, subject to G7/EU oil cap & sanctions. Pak to pay through a “friendly” country, presumably #China – a power play for Beijing. #energy https://www.gzeromedia.com/russia-and-pakistan-might-cut-unprecedented-oil-deal

Cold War rivals Russia and Pakistan are negotiating an agreement for the Russians to start selling cheap oil to energy-starved Pakistan in March.

This will make Islamabad yet another Asian customer of Russian crude at a time when Moscow’s cash inflows are limited by a G7/EU oil cap and sanctions. Also, considering Pakistan is dead broke, payments might be made through a “friendly” country, presumably China – a power play for Beijing, whose yuan will be used for the transactions, giving the currency more sway as an alternative to the US dollar.

How is this deal going to affect American interests in the region? And why is Pakistan, which wants to balance its ties with Washington, giving business to the Russians perhaps through China?

First, some history. Although the agreement isn’t finalized, it’ll be geopolitically novel when it is because Pakistan is an unlikely destination for Russian business. Unlike India, Islamabad and Moscow have had no commercial ties for decades.

Considering Pakistan spent the Cold War spying on the USSR and/or attacking its troops in Afghanistan (the Soviet Union paid back in kind by arming India, Pakistan’s arch-rival), the two sides haven’t exactly behaved like partner-material.

Enter China. Pakistan and China have been “Iron Brothers” for decades. Even though Islamabad was a non-treaty US ally until not too long ago, the Pakistanis and the Chinese have always remained “all-weather friends.”

However, as India settled into the role of becoming America’s strategic partner in the region, displacing Pakistan as the preferred South Asian ally over the last two decades, the Chinese encouraged Pakistan to open up to the Russians, and vice versa. Now, a once hesitant Islamabad doesn’t just want Russian oil, but also natural gas, weapons and more. Still, Islamabad wants to stay aligned with the American camp.

Why is Pakistan doing this? Islamabad’s energy bills make the biggest chunk of its imports. Cheaper oil from Russia will obviously help its escalating balance of payments crisis and ballooning trade deficit.

But the biggest issue is with dwindling foreign exchange reserves. A year ago, Pakistan had $17 billion in the bank. Today, foreign reserves have dwindled to $4.3 billion, which will pay for less than a month of imports.

To manage the dollar crunch, Pakistan could use the Chinese yuan in a swap with China to pay Russia once the oil flows in (it expects to get 35% of its annual crude oil imports from 70 million barrels of Russian crude), putting its import-regime firmly in the China-Russia camp.

Pakistan thus finds itself between a rock and a hard place: It needs the cheap Russian oil but also wants to avoid antagonizing the US and its friends in the Gulf, Pakistan’s main energy suppliers — especially considering that Islamabad has been negotiating bailouts with the Washington-backed IMF and deferred oil payments from the Saudis and the Emiratis.

While the Pakistanis defend their position by citing neighboring India as an example of a country that buys Russian oil even as it tilts towards the US and deals with the Gulf states, Islamabad is in a very different position compared to New Delhi because Pakistan is crawling toward default.

Riaz Haq said...

A New U.S.-Pakistan Relationship Is Emerging | The National Interest

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/new-us-pakistan-relationship-emerging-206135


With the Afghanistan War in the rearview mirror and Khan no longer in power, the United States and Pakistan have been walking back from the brink and searching for a new meaning to their relationship. The reality is that in the nearly seven decades of U.S.-Pakistan relations, despite their lack of continuity and strategic consensus, the two countries have kept coming back to each other. Even their troubled post-9/11 engagement was not without major accomplishments, as Pakistan provided critical military and intelligence support for America’s efforts to weaken Al Qaeda and advance U.S. and global security. The security challenges remain, as does Washington’s need for Pakistan’s cooperation, for which there is no alternative following the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.

But gone are the days when the United States could just come back and reignite the relationship as if nothing had happened while it was away. Pakistan has long been in the grip of anti-Americanism, incited by America’s image as an unreliable ally that has manipulated Pakistan’s political system to its advantage, an image further inflamed by Khan’s allegations that Washington conspired to have his government removed, which are baseless but compelling to his base.

The United States and Pakistan now realize that if their ties are to be revived, they must be sustainable, mutually beneficial, and have public support. The stimulus for revival has come from both sides, though the initiative may have come from Washington, which is finally focusing on Pakistan, having been freed from the Afghanistan War and possibly provided a strategic pause by India’s ambivalence over the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It is evident that India’s interests in Russia are many and will endure. Indeed, India prefers “multi-alignment.”

Could this re-engagement with Pakistan be Washington’s own multi-alignment? For a start, last September, Washington announced a potential $450 million sale of F-16 aircraft sustainment to Pakistan over the objections of India. While India will remain a critical part of the American Indo-Pacific strategy, the centrality of India to U.S. policy in South Asia may not be in Washington’s interests.

Washington has important stakes in Pakistan, where it needs an independent policy that stands on its own. Pakistan is at the confluence of multiple U.S. concerns and interests that cannot be dictated by the Indo-Pacific strategy alone, such as China, Russia, the Taliban, counterterrorism, nonproliferation, nuclear security, and climate change. In any case, as Raja Mohan notes, “Pakistan occupies a vital piece of real estate that sits between the subcontinent, Iran, Arabia, Central Asia, Russia and China and is too important to be isolated.”

Rethinking in Pakistan

Pakistan has also been rethinking the relationship. There is a growing sentiment, especially among the ruling establishment, that the country’s mounting economic difficulties, rising challenges to internal stability, and continuing external security threats require good relations with Washington, particularly as China may not be the answer to all of Islamabad’s problems (nor should it be). However, the U.S.-Pakistan relationship can no longer be based on the rentier model that has largely defined it since the two sides’ initial engagement from 1954 to 1965, when the United States, to its credit, strengthened Pakistan’s defense capabilities and potential for economic development, offering critical help in stabilizing the emergent state.

Blaine said...

Let me just say this, we won't default iA. Secondly, countries have defaulted and carried on.

Pakistan was never invincible nor infallible, rather we manage to eke out our existence. So if the idea is to get by with "juggad", then Pakistan will manage. It will swallow the bitter IMF pill and then backtrack as soon as some relief comes its way (e.g. bumper crops, decline in energy bill etc.).

So this pain, as it is being felt by the elite as well (the poor were always suffering) may perhaps be the economic catharsis needed for the country to set its path straight and not allow this extreme economic situation to develop in the future. All easier said than done but not too many other options remain.

Anonymous said...

"Similarly more Pakistani and Bengladeshi come to India than the Indian citizens go to Pakistan and Bangladesh. Because life is far better in India."

Can you please provide the proof of this statement?

My family migrated from India and not single person, that I know of ever moved back. Even the relatives who married Indians lived in Pakistan. In some cases the guys moved to Pakistan.

As far as BD is concerned, it has changed in last 10-15 years. As a BD said "BDeshis would rather swim to Italy than to go to India".

Also this should be educational for you:

https://m.timesofindia.com/india/why-are-pak-hindus-desperate-to-return-to-pakistan/amp_articleshow/83404001.cms


G. Ali

Riaz Haq said...

#US: #Pakistan can buy #Russian #oil despite restrictions. “So, we have encouraged countries to take advantage of that, even those countries that have not formally signed on to the price cap, so that they can acquire oil in some cases at a steep discount"
https://www.dawn.com/news/1733661

The United States has reiterated that Pakistan can purchase oil from Russia at a discounted price even though it has not signed a Washington-backed price-cap on Russian petroleum products.

US State Department’s spokesperson Ned Price told reporters at a Tuesday afternoon news briefing that Pakistan can also take advantage of the concessions Washington has given to other countries for buying oil from Russia.

“So, we have encouraged countries to take advantage of that, even those countries that have not formally signed on to the price cap, so that they can acquire oil in some cases at a steep discount from what they would otherwise acquire from, in this case, Russia,” Mr Price said.

On December 3, 2022, G7 and EU countries set a price-cap of $60 per barrel on Russian oil to prevent Moscow from using the revenues to finance its war against Ukraine.

Since, Europe and the United States no longer import crude oil from Russia, the controlled purchase would only affect third countries, like Pakistan. Islamabad has not yet signed the accord, mainly because Pakistan does not import oil from Russia.

Mr Price said the US approach to the purchase of oil from Russia has been laid out in the price-cap mechanism that it worked out with other countries around the world, including the G7.

“And the virtue of the price cap is that it allows energy markets to continue to be resourced while depriving Moscow of the revenue it would need to continue to propagate and fuel its brutal war against Ukraine,” the US official said.

“We have made the point that we have very intentionally not sanctioned Russian oil. Instead, it’s now subject to the price cap.” The US, he said, has been very clear that now was not the time to increase economic activity with Russia.

“But we understand the imperative of keeping global energy markets well resourced, well supplied, and the price-cap, we believe, provides a mechanism to do that,” he added.

On Friday, Minister for Economic Affairs Ayaz Sadiq, and Russia’s Energy Minister Nikolay Shulginov said at a joint news conference in Islamabad that they hope to sign an oil deal by late March, enabling Pakistan to buy Russian oil at discounted rates.

A joint statement issued after their talks said that the two sides reached an in-principle agreement on the supply of Russian crude oil and oil products to Pakistan, with technical details to be finalised in March at the latest.

“We have decided that it would be a good idea for Pakistan to approach Gazprom and Novatek, two largest LNG-producing companies, in late 2023 to discuss the conditions” for buying LNG, the Russian minister said.

Energy-starved Pakistan imports approximately 430,000mt of motor gasoline, 200,000mt diesel and 650,000mt crude oil at a cost of $1.3 billion per month.

Market observers earlier this month warned Pakistan may face fuel shortages in the near future as importers struggle to secure dollars to close deals. The country’s foreign exchange reserves have dwindled to their lowest levels in almost nine years.

Buying oil from Russia at a discounted price could ease the pressure.

Riaz Haq said...

The (US DoD's China Military Power Report CMPR) ranks Pakistan as its “only all-weather strategic partner” while Russia is the only “comprehensive strategic partnership with coordination relations.” Pakistan is also one of the places that China has likely “considered a location for military logistics facilities.”

https://eurasiantimes.com/china-banks-on-pakistan-to-achieve-its-military-political-goals/

Pakistan’s relations with China are of a different pattern. The US and its allies in the Western world have always considered Pakistan very important to their strategic interests in the Asian Continent.

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China justifies its special relationship with Pakistan for more than one reason. China’s BRI is allied with Pakistan’s pipeline and port construction projects. China aims to reduce its dependence on transporting energy resources through vulnerable choke points like the Straits of Malacca.

The report recalls that suicide bombers attacked a workers’ bus on its way to a BRI infrastructure development project in Pakistan. Ten Chinese nationals were killed, and 26 others were injured.

The report does not mention anything about the bomber, but unofficial sources said they were active members of the Pakhtun National Movement.

Amusingly, the report says that China used the incident to “extend its ability to project military power to safeguard its overseas interests, including BRI, by developing closer regional and bilateral counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan.”

China’s double standards in dealing with the issue of counterterrorism will be understood without difficulty. This is why Pakistan has given a clean chit to China in the context of blatant violation of the human rights of Uyghurs of Xinjiang province while viciously maligning India by bringing in baseless charges of human violations in Kashmir.

As we see, one of the main reasons for the Baloch insurgency in Pakistan is the sell-out of Baloch resources to China, whose benefits fill the coffers of the Punjabi elite and landlords in the province of Punjab, Pakistan.

A significant part of the report deals with strategic defense cooperation between China and Pakistan. Beijing has helped Islamabad complete the in-orbit delivery of the Pakistan Remote-Sensing Satellite.

The report includes observation of joint military exercises between the two countries.

Rising Military Relations
In 2020-21 China participated in a joint naval exercise with Pakistan and supplied strike-capable Caihong and Wing Loong Unmanned Aircraft Systems to Pakistan. These are spy vehicles, and Pakistan has been using these against India in the border region of Jammu.

Pakistani drones are deployed to drop arms, ammunition, drugs and Indian currency, and anti-India propaganda literature.

In October 2018, it was announced that Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and Chengdu Aircraft Corporation of China would jointly produce 48 Wing Loong II UAVs for use by the Pakistan Air Force.

The Chengdu GJ-2, also known as Wing Loong 2, is an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) capable of remotely controlled or autonomous flight developed by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group in the People’s Republic of China.

Intended for use as a surveillance, aerial reconnaissance, and precision strike platform, Chengdu unveiled the concept of Wing Loong II at the Aviation Expo China in Beijing in September 2015. Wing Loong II has long-range strike capability with a satellite link.

China supplied major naval vessels to its partners, particularly Pakistan, which purchased 8 Yuan class submarines for more than US $3 billion. Two years later, China sold four naval frigates to Pakistan.

Under the PLANMC — a supporter of PRC’s military diplomacy — Chinese forces have trained with Thai, Pakistani, Saudi Arabia, South African, and Djiboutian forces. Pakistan is also a member of the China-led Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization.


Riaz Haq said...

US DoD's China Military Power Report CMPR

https://eurasiantimes.com/china-banks-on-pakistan-to-achieve-its-military-political-goals/


Under the PLANMC — a supporter of PRC’s military diplomacy — Chinese forces have trained with Thai, Pakistani, Saudi Arabia, South African, and Djiboutian forces. Pakistan is also a member of the China-led Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization.

The report released in November follows the Pentagon’s release of the National Defense Strategy in October, which identified China as the “most consequential and systemic challenge” to US national security and a free and open international system.

Pakistan’s relations with China are of a different pattern. The US and its allies in the Western world have always considered Pakistan very important to their strategic interests in the Asian Continent.

China, too, has strategic interests in befriending Pakistan but for a different purpose: to challenge India’s growing economic and political power by creating a proxy to engage India.

While the western countries want to checkmate Russian designs southward, China intends to contain India because it finds a veritable political, economic and military threat in the rise of India in the Asian Continent.

Keeping the Kashmir pot boiling serves the interests of both power blocs.

It is also in their interests that Islamic religious sensitivity is sharpened among the people in the area lying at the underbelly of the Russian State. First, they experimented with the Basmachi (terrorist groups in Turkistan) in the second and third decades of the 20th century, which they met with reversals.

The failure of the Basmachi movement in Central Asia made the imperialists think seriously of an alternative region that could serve their objective of containment of Russia. This led to the theory of partition of India. This plan was subtly initiated and carried forward.

In this way, creating the State of Pakistan in the most sensitive geographical part of India became a reality in 1947.

Anti-Soviet and anti-Russia forces found a foothold strategically crucial for them. To maintain the foothold, they forged the political weapon of pan-Islamism.

Now we have the Basmachis in a new avatar of LeT, JeM, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Hizbul Mujahideen, Ansar Ghazavatul Hind, and a dozen of new versions of sub-continental terror groups directly or indirectly supported by the two contesting super-powers of the world.

Now Pakistan is under the patronage of China for all purposes. However, its elite still swears by the US.

Speaking at a recently held seminar in the US on Pak-America relations, Chinese foreign policy expert Yun Sun said that Pakistan’s relations with the US were a factor in China’s overall strategy for South Asia, but China has plenty of confidence that its relationship with Pakistan is going to continue regardless of the modality of US-Pakistan relations.”

Sun made a very interesting point by saying that China was also adjusting or recalibrating its policy and expectations toward reaching out to the US, especially regarding CEPC.

And from that recalibration, there’s almost a welcoming attitude in China that Pakistan should re-balance its external strategy. And there’s a welcoming attitude that Pakistan is reaching out to the United States again.”

KN Pandita (Padma Shri) is the former Director of the Centre of Central Asian Studies at Kashmir University. Views expressed here are of the author’s.

Riaz Haq said...

Beijing relies on Pakistan to project its might, Pentagon report notes

https://www.dawn.com/news/1724020

https://media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/2003122279/-1/-1/1/2022-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF

China relies on Pakistan for projecting its military and economic might as Islamabad remains a key Beijing ally, says the US Department of Defence.

The China Military Power 2022 report — released here on Tuesday — examines how China seeks to achieve its “national rejuvenation” objective by 2049 with the help of international partners, such as Pakistan.

According to the report, China ranks Pakistan as its only “all-weather strategic partner” while Russia as its only “comprehensive strategic partner with coordination relations”.

During the last five years, China has expanded ties with both of its historical partners, Pakistan and Russia. Pakistan is also one of the places that China has likely “considered as locations for military logistics facilities”.

The report notes that China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is associated with pipelines and port construction projects in Pakistan. But with the help of those projects, China “seeks to become less reliant on transporting energy resources through strategic choke points, such as the Strait of Malacca”.

Beijing also attempts to exploit the relationships it builds through BRI to pursue additional economic cooperation with participating countries, the report adds.

It recalls that in 2021, 10 Chinese nationals were killed, and 26 others injured when a suicide bomber targeted a workers’ bus on its way to a BRI infrastructure development project in Pakistan.

The report, however, claims that China used this incident to “extend its ability to project military power to safeguard its overseas interests, including BRI, by developing closer regional and bilateral counterterrorism” cooperation with Pakistan.

Reviewing China’s growing military and economic cooperation with Pakistan, the report notes how Beijing helped Islamabad complete the in-orbit delivery of the Pakistan Remote-Sensing Satellite.

China also vigorously pursues its policy of supporting a BRI host-nation’s security forces through military aid, including military equipment donations.

The examples of China-Pakistan cooperation cited in the report include joint military exercises. It notes that in 2020-21, China participated in a joint naval exercise with Pakistan and also supplied strike-capable Caihong and Wing Loong Unmanned Aircraft Systems to Pakistan.

China also supplied major naval vessels to its partners, highlighted by Pakistan’s 2015 purchase of eight Yuan class submarines for more than $3 billion. In 2017 and 2018, China sold four naval frigates to Pakistan.

Under the PLANMC, which supports the PRC’s military diplomacy, Chinese forces have trained with Thai, Pakistani, Saudi Arabia’s, South African, and Djiboutian forces.

Pakistan is also a member of the China-led Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organisation.

The “Military and Sec­urity Developments Invo­lving the People’s Republic of China,” commonly known as the China Military Power Report (CMPR), is a Congressionally mandated document. It serves as an authoritative assessment of China’s military and security strategy.

The report follows the Pentagon’s release of the National Defence Strategy in October, which identified China as the “most consequential and systemic challenge” to US national security and a free and open international system.

The military power report covers the contours of the People’s Liberation Army’s way of war, surveys the PLA’s current activities and capabilities, and assesses its future military modernisation goals.

The Pentagon argues that China’s foreign policy seeks to build a “community of common destiny” that supports its strategy to realise “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”.

Beijing’s “revisionist ambition” for the international order derives from the objectives of its national strategy and the Communist Party’s political and governing systems, it said.

Riaz Haq said...

Military and Security Developments Involving the
People’s Republic of China
A Report to Congress
Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act for
Fiscal Year 2000

https://media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/2003122279/-1/-1/1/2022-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF


The PRC has likely considered Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia,
Pakistan, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Equatorial Guinea, Seychelles,
Tanzania, Angola, and Tajikistan, among other places, as locations for PLA military
logistics facilities.

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To improve its diplomatic support further, the PRC also
seeks to create what it calls a “comprehensive global partnership network” of its strategic
partners to form a global “circle of friends.” Despite its encompassing rhetoric, the PRC uses
nomenclature to implicitly rank its level of “partnership.” For example, the PRC ranks
Pakistan as its only “all-weather strategic partner,” Russia as its only “comprehensive
strategic partner with coordination relations,” and other countries such as Brazil and various
states in South and Southeast Asia holding “all-round strategic partnership relations.”

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In support of its national strategy, Beijing leverages BRI to strengthen its territorial
integrity, energy security, and international influence. The PRC aims to improve stability
and diminish threats, for example, by investing in projects along its western and southern
periphery. Similarly, through BRI projects associated with pipelines and port construction in
Pakistan, it seeks to become less reliant on transporting energy resources through strategic
choke points, such as the Strait of Malacca. It also attempts to exploit the relationships it
builds through BRI to pursue additional economic cooperation with participating countries.

----------

In 2021,
for example, 10 PRC nationals were killed and 26 others injured when a suicide bomber
targeted a workers’ bus on its way to a BRI infrastructure development project in Pakistan.
China has therefore sought to extend its ability to project military power to safeguard its
overseas interests, including BRI, by developing closer regional and bilateral counterterrorism
cooperation and supporting host-nation security forces through military aid, including military
equipment donations.

---------

The PLANMC (PLAN Marine Corps) has increased the size of its force in Djibouti from approximately 250 marines
in 2017 to 400 marines in 2022, including a new special forces contingent. The PLANMC
also embarks a contingent of marines with the PLAN’s Gulf of Aden counterpiracy-focused
naval escort task force that supports China’s trade interests. Additionally, the PLANMC
supports the PRC’s military diplomacy. For example, they have trained with Thai, Pakistani,
Saudi, South African, and Djiboutian forces

-------

Beijing also completed the in-orbit delivery of the Pakistan Remote-Sensing
Satellite (PRSS-1), Venezuelan Remote-Sensing Satellite (VRSS-2), Sudan Remote-Sensing
Satellite (SRSS-1), and the Algerian Communications Satellite (Alcomsat-1). China has
provided satellite carrying or launching services for countries including Saudi Arabia,
Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Laos, and Luxembourg. China has built satellite data
receiving stations with countries including Bolivia, Indonesia, Namibia, Thailand and South
Africa.

Riaz Haq said...

Military and Security Developments Involving the
People’s Republic of China
A Report to Congress
Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act for
Fiscal Year 2000

https://media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/2003122279/-1/-1/1/2022-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF

The Southern Theater Command is responsible for training, force disposition, and operations
in the SCS. In 2020 and 2021, Southern Theater Command units conducted multiple live-fire
drills and amphibious training events near PRC-occupied features in the SCS. The Southern
Theater Command also plays a significant role in the PLA’s bilateral and multilateral
exercises with countries in Southeast Asia, participating in a joint naval exercise with
Pakistan, a counterterrorism exercise with Cambodia, and a U.S. co-led multilateral exercise
in Thailand, in 2021

-------------

The PLAN, PLAAF, PLAA, and SSF have deployed abroad for counterpiracy, humanitarian
assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR), peacekeeping, training exercises, and space support
operations. Within the PLA, the PLAN has the most experience operating abroad due to its
far seas deployments and counterpiracy missions, the PLAAF likely has the most experience
conducting rapid response HA/DR operations abroad, and the PLAA has the most experience
conducting peacekeeping operations. The SSF operates tracking, telemetry, and command
stations in Namibia, Pakistan, Argentina, and Kenya. The SSF also has a handful of Yuan
Wang space support ships to track satellite and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)
launches.

--------

Military Cooperation. As China’s regional and international interests grow increasingly
complex, the PLA’s international engagements likely will continue to expand. Beijing often
relies on senior military visits, bilateral and multilateral exercises and training, and
peacekeeping and military assistance to promote China’s foreign policy objectives. For
example, through 2021, Beijing continued to conduct global “vaccine diplomacy” with
Cambodia, Pakistan, Mongolia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, and Ethiopia, among other countries,
which has allowed China to deepen bilateral relations and set itself up as a global leader. As
part of this COVID assistance, China has also donated personal protective equipment to more
than 50 countries throughout 2021 and has deployed its naval hospital ship nine times over
the past ten years to provide medical services for more than 40 countries and regions.

---------
The PRC continues to expand the PLA’s participation in bilateral and multilateral military
exercises, normalizing the PLA’s presence overseas and establishing ties to foreign militaries.
For example, in 2021, the PLA participated in seventeen bilateral or multilateral exercises,
including hosting Russian forces for Interaction-2021, as well as Peace Mission 2021 along
with forces from other Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) militaries includingKazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, India, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan. China also hosted forces
from Pakistan, Mongolia, and Thailand in Queshan County, Henan Province for SharedDestiny-2021, a multinational peacekeeping exercise.Additionally, China partnered with Iran
and Russia for joint naval drills in February of 2022. For a list of selected PLA bilateral and
multilateral exercises in 2021, see Appendix III.

-----------

The PRC has likely considered Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan,
Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Equatorial Guinea, Seychelles, Tanzania,
Angola, and Tajikistan among other places as locations for PLA military logistics
facilities.

--------

Riaz Haq said...

Military and Security Developments Involving the
People’s Republic of China
A Report to Congress
Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act for
Fiscal Year 2000

https://media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/2003122279/-1/-1/1/2022-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF


The PRC has likely considered Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia,
Pakistan, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Seychelles, Equatorial Guinea,
Tanzania, Angola, and Tajikistan among other places as locations for PLA military
logistics facilities. The PRC has probably already made overtures to Namibia,
Vanuatu, and the Solomon Islands. The PLA is most interested in military access along
the SLOCs from China to the Strait of Hormuz, Africa, and the Pacific Islands.

----------

China’s Arms Exports. China is the fifth-largest arms supplier in the world, and sells nearly
every category of conventional military equipment including UASs, submarines, naval
surface vessels, surface to air missile systems and fighter aircraft to customers like Saudi
Arabia, Serbia, the UAE, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Pakistan.

-----------

Armed UASs. China has supplied strike-capable Caihong and Wing Loong UASs to
at least Pakistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Algeria, Serbia, Indonesia, and
Kazakhstan

-----

Naval Combatants. China is a supplier of major naval vessels, highlighted by
Pakistan’s 2015 purchase of eight Yuan class submarines for more than $3 billion.
Thailand also purchased one Yuan class submarine in 2017 and originally planned to
purchase two more. As of late 2021, Thailand’s procurement of the first Yuan
submarine was not fulfilled by China due to contractual delays, though it delivered
two Ming class submarines to Bangladesh in 2016 and one to Burma in 2021. In 2017
and 2018, China sold two naval frigates to Bangladesh and four to Pakistan. In
September 2019, China made its first-ever sale of an LPD-class ship to Thailand.

----------

During
the last five years, China has expanded ties with its historical partners like Russia and Pakistan
while increasing engagements with U.S. partners and allies, such as the Philippines, Djibouti, and
Thailand. These bilateral defense engagements provide the PLA opportunities to acquire advanced
weapon systems and technologies and give the PLA access to foreign military practices,
operational doctrine, and training methods.

----------------

Selected PLA Bilateral and Multilateral Exercises in 2021
Exercise Name Type of Exercise Participants
Peace 2021/ Aman
2021 Multinational joint naval exercise Russia, Pakistan, Turkey, United
States and 41 additional nations

--------

Shared Destiny 2021 Multinational peacekeeping exercise Pakistan, Mongolia, Thailand

----------

Peace Mission 2021 Multinational military training
Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan,
Kyrgyzstan, India, Pakistan,
Uzbekistan

---------

Pabbi Antiterror 2021 Joint anti-terrorism exercise
Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan,
India

-------


Riaz Haq said...

69% Pakistanis feel that their children will have a better life than them in a global Gallup International survey in 64 countries

Figure in India is 43%

https://twitter.com/bilalgilani/status/1619768586276569088?s=20&t=AfVrdN1yfTuVjhOxMf22eQ



https://www.gallup-international.bg/en/46667/fsdfdsfs/


The most positive country among those surveyed is Nigeria (90% minus 6%) and the most negative is Slovenia a (14% minus 53%). Among the prominent countries where GIA could poll, expectations for their children’s future are highest in Nigeria is followed by Russia (52% minus 10%), Mexico (48% minus 30%), the USA (43% minus 31%) and India (43% minus 33%).

When combining the two questions, another perspective is added. For instance, Moldova shows a total of 86 (45% saying that their live is worse life than the one of their parents plus 41% expecting a worse life of today’s children), followed in this negative ranking by North Macedonia (82: 35% negative assessments plus 47% negative predictions), Afghanistan (81), Syria and Italy (78), etc.

Most of the countries are still positive on both questions, but if one looks for instance for countries with both above 50% positive answers, Nigeria stands out with 171 (81% positive for today plus 90% positive for tomorrow), followed by Kosovo (162), the United Arab Emirates (150), Ghana (141), Pakistan (134), etc.

Findings are proved, confirming that developing parts of the world share more hope. National and political peculiarities leave their footprint but in general is seems that the closer the war and troubles are, the worse are the answers on both issues – as expected.

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Every second citizen (51%) of the world believes that their life is better than that of their parents. The other half of the people asked is equally divided between those who assess a worse life (23%) and those who find it the same (23%). 3% could not answer. Satisfaction with the living standard is a key factor for people to believe that they have a better life than their parents. But in some rich regions like Europe this is not so valid.

Expectations for the life of today’s children are predominantly good as well but lower than the comparison of own life to the life of the previous generation – 44% are expecting a better life for today’s children in comparison to our lives, 28% expecting a worse life, 20% expecting about the same and 8% not responding. Aged people are less sure about the better future of the next generation. More money unsurprisingly seems to result in more confidence in the future on a personal level, but on a national level countries that experience or used to experience difficulties are the ones to believe stronger in better future for the next generation. Unsurprisingly again.