Friday, December 27, 2019

Over Half Million Pakistanis Migrating Abroad Each Year

Nearly 600,000 Pakistanis have gone overseas for work in the first 11 months of this year, according to figures recently released by Pakistan Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment. This phenomenon has helped reduce unemployment in a country where about 2 million young people are entering the job market each year. It has also helped remittances soar nearly 21X since the year 2000.



Emigrants From Pakistan 1990-2019. Source: Pakistan Bureau of Emigration

Migration Overseas:

Over 11 million Pakistanis have left home for employment in Europe, America, Middle East and elsewhere since 1971, according to Pakistan Bureau of Emigration. The pace has particularly picked up over the last 10 years with over half a million Pakistanis migrating abroad each year.  This phenomenon has helped reduce unemployment in a country where about 2 million young people are entering the job market each year.

Emigrants From Pakistan 1971-2019. Source: Pakistan Bureau of Emigration


More Pakistanis have migrated overseas in the last 9 years (2011-2019) than in previous 30 years (1971-2010).  The average figure has been about 500,000 each year since 2011. The highest was 946,571 in 2015 while the lowest was 382,439 in 2018.  These figures do not include Pakistanis who went abroad for education and never returned.


Remittance inflows from Pakistani diaspora have jumped 21-fold from about $1 billion in year 2000 to $21 billion in 2018, according to the World Bank. In terms of GDP, these inflows have soared nearly 7X from about 1% in year 2000 to 6.9% of GDP in 2018.

Composition of Pakistan Emigrants. Infographic Courtesy of Gulf News

Myths About Emigration:

common myth about emigration is that it is driven by poverty. But the fact is that the poorest and least developed people tend to stay put where they are; they do not migrate. It's only people who have a certain level of income and skills who are more likely to migrate to other countries for better opportunities. This fact has been well-established by multiple studies conducted in Africa.

Here's an except of African Development Bank report on migration:

"Results show that despite increase in the absolute number of migrants, Africa, particularly SubSaharan Africa has one of the lowest rate of emigration in the world .... Poorer countries generally have lower rate of emigration ......Bad socio-economic conditions generally seem to lead to higher rate of emigration by highly skilled individuals. Generally, migration is driven by motives to improve livelihoods with notable evidence on changes in labor market status. Often, self-employed or unemployed émigré ended up in wage employment. The paper outlines policy issues emerging from the migration trend in Africa."

Migration vs Human Development Source: Hein de Haas










Data shows that increased human and economic development is initially associated with increasing emigration. Any form of development in the poorest countries of the world is therefore likely to lead to accelerating emigration. Such findings contradict conventional thinking and force us to radically change our views on migration. Such rethinking can be achieved by learning to see migration as an intrinsic part of broader development processes rather than as a problem to be solved, or the temporary response to development “disequilibria”, according to The Conversation, a US publication.

Migration to Non-English Speaking OECD Nations:

Migration data for 2016 released by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the club of rich industrialized nations of Europe, North America and East Asia, shows that a growing number of Pakistanis are migrating to its non-English Speaking member countries. Traditionally, most Pakistanis migrating to rich industrialized nations have preferred to go to English-Speaking nations. The biggest factor driving such migrations appears to be the growing labor shortages caused by aging populations and declining birth rates in OECD member nations.

Among the biggest non-English Speaking OECD destinations in 2016 for Pakistani migrants are Italy (14,735)  , Germany (12,215), Spain (6,461), South Korea (2,724), Japan (1,486), France (1,350) and Sweden (1.211). 

Pakistani Migration to Non-English Speaking OECD Nations in 2016. Source: OECD


Among English Speaking OECD nations, the top destination for Pakistani migrants continues to be the United States (19,313) followed by Canada (11,335), United Kingdom (11,000) and Australia (6,958). 

Young Population Decline in Major Labor Exporting Countries. Source: Nikkei



Internal Migration:

Internal migration in Pakistan far exceeds external migration. Estimates from the 2014-2015 Labor Force Survey (LFS) indicate that the internal migrant population is roughly four times larger than the emigrant population. This means that some 13% of the Pakistani population is an internal migrant, according to Pakistan Migration Snapshot published in August, 2019.

Like most developing nations, the internal migration in Pakistan is linked to the differences in level of development between urban and rural regions with people moving for better employment and to overcome poverty. Pakistan has also experienced many natural hazards, which have caused numerous waves of internal displacement and internal migration (Sadia et al., 2017; Cibea et al, 2013).

Summary:

Pakistan is in the midst massive migration, both internal and external. Over half a million Pakistanis are migrating overseas while about 2 million are migrating internally from rural to urban areas. These trends are transforming the nation. Overseas remittances are soaring. Pakistan is becoming more urban. The country is also seeing growing foreign cultural influences from both the West and the Middle East.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Pakistan is the 7th Largest Source of Migrants in OECD Nations

Pakistanis Mini-Invasion of China

Inspirational Story of Karachi Rickshaw Driver's Daughters

Pakistan Remittance Soar 21X

Pakistan's Growing Human Capital

Two Million Pakistanis Entering Job Market Every Year

Pakistan Most Urbanized in South Asia

Hindu Population Growth Rate in Pakistan

Do South Asian Slums Offer Hope?


36 comments:

Baradar said...

انشاء اللہ وقت آنے پر بہت سے تجربے کے ساتھ واپس آئیں گے اور ملک کو بہتر بنائیں گے۔


ایک ایک بندہ لاکھوں بندوں کے برابر ہو گا۔

Asif said...

This number of half million statistics is very good number on behalf of Pakistan nations. As I can remember back when I was with IBM the Indian supervisor used to comment on immigration from Pakistan in comparison to huge Indian numbers in terms of insignificant to irrelevant numbers of total 40k to 50k per annual, therefore this is a huge achievement of legal immigrants.

Farooq said...

Pakistan-Americans on average are doing much better than the average American

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/AAPI-Pakistani-factsheet.pdf

Ahmad N. said...

All these Immigrants are talented people. They send remittances back to Pakistan which is vital for our economy. Our economy is not capable enough to provide job to all of its working force. Brain drain is out of the question. Its more like Rusting minds of Young professionals who don't find work here according to their skill and qualification. Plus our country is already over populated and our industry over employeed and Inefficient by that reason.
Don't just find a negative in every news

Ahmad F. said...

Not sure if that is a good thing— people emigrating. Shows lack of opportunity at home. A vote of no confidence.

Riaz Haq said...

Ahmad: " Not sure if that is a good thing— people emigrating. Shows lack of opportunity at home. A vote of no confidence"


Or better opportunity overseas than at home!

At 17.5 million, Indian diaspora largest in the world : UN report
India's leading country of origin of international migrants with a 17.5 mn strong diaspora, a UN report said.

Migrants from Mexico constituted the second largest diaspora (11.8 million), followed by China (10.7 million), Russia (10.5 million), Syria (8.2 million), Bangladesh (7.8 million), Pakistan (6.3 million), Ukraine (5.9 million), the Philippines (5.4 million) and Afghanistan (5.1 million).

At the country level, about half of all international migrants reside in just 10 countries, with the United States of America hosting the largest number of international migrants (51 million), equal to about 19 per cent of the world's total.

Germany and Saudi Arabia host the second and third largest numbers of migrants (13 million each), followed by Russia (12 million), the United Kingdom (10 million), the United Arab Emirates (9 million), France, Canada and Australia (around 8 million each) and Italy (6 million).


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/nris-in-news/at-17-5-million-indian-diaspora-largest-in-the-world-un-report/articleshow/71179163.cms

Riaz Haq said...

Myth: If poor countries get more aid, people won’t migrate
Some political leaders say that if we give more development aid to poor countries – especially in Africa – then their citizens won’t want to move away.

Truth: Economic growth leads to more migration

When countries develop, their citizens have more resources and skills, which allow them to migrate. This is called the “migration paradox”. Mexico, the Philippines and Turkey – all middle-income countries – produce substantial numbers of migrants. Very poor people don’t have the resources to migrate. The right to migrate is enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

http://journey.caritas.org/?myth=poor-countries-get-aid-people-wont-migrate

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan at a crossroads
Nuno Lopes | Shahid Farooq Updated December 28, 2019

https://www.dawn.com/news/1524873/pakistan-at-a-crossroads

WITH over 200 million inhabitants, Pakis­tan stands at a crossroads. Recovering from a devastating surge of terrorism, it is now in its third consecutive democratic government.

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Traffic congestion and air pollution are common features in Pakistan today, and rapid urbanisation has created under-resourced urban settlements, causing unprecedented levels of economic, spatial, social and infrastructural challenges.

Urban settlements are the engines of growth and development, and, therefore, they can make or break a country’s sustainability. Pakistan is experiencing a turning point in sustainability, with many areas at the lowest ebb of urban crisis. In the UN 2018 e-government index for 2018, Pakistan’s largest city Karachi was ranked as the lowest among 40 cities of the world assessed for resilience and sustainability through e-governance.

This makes a holistic and integrated vision of urban challenges more necessary than ever. In this context, a smart sustainable cities paradigm has emerged worldwide as a solution to these challenges. As defined by the Operating Unit on Policy-Driven Electronic Governance of the United Nations University, a smart sustainable city is one that implements a transformative governance process, oriented at building capacities to solve multidimensional and complex problems, conducted within a multidisciplinary team and with the collaboration and cooperation of all stakeholders, aiming to achieve sustainable economic, social and environmental development.

Pakistan’s major cities are exactly at the threshold where policymakers have no choice but to adopt this concept. Implicitly, Pakistan Vision 2025 already suggested a smart city transformation, by stating that it “seeks to ensure that Pakistan’s cities are digitally connected [and] equipped with wireless network sensors ... thereby laying the foundations for the cities of Pakistan to be smart and creative”. However, this is still a very simplistic smart city vision, as it is based only on technologies and does not mention the need to build capabilities and competences for solving urban problems.

This narrow understanding of the smart city concept limits its practical implementation. Countries under these circumstances tend to be more easily influenced by multinational IT companies or by more developed countries, which want to sell their solutions as though they are a universal remedy. To be effective, the smart city concept must be understood, absorbed and implemented by Pakistani citizens, as they are the ones who know better what they need and want for their future.

Pakistan cannot afford to lose momentum or else it will run the risk of definitively losing its competitiveness in the region as well as globally. Given that its neighbours China and India are much more advanced in the field of smart cities, with very ambitious national plans and tech innovation hubs, Pakistan has to seize the opportunity to become more economically competitive and sustainable.

The country has favourable factors that can enable and boost a fast transformation. First, it can harness the opportunities offered by CPEC; second, it has a good ICT infrastructure, with 100 per cent 3G/4G mobile coverage, which can be used to implement smart technological solutions; and third, cities such as Lahore, Peshawar and Multan have a very rich cultural heritage, and these unique features can have a catalyst effect. In addition, these cities have a flourishing IT industry with a growing number of IT parks, data centres and innovative tech incubators which can attract international investors.

Syed H said...

But is the half a million figure an absolute figure or a net figure.....? I think it is the former, an absolute figure. What I mean is that it does not capture the number of Pakistanis returning to Pakistan. This is important, and a point often overlooked by Pakistani origin people living, like myself, in the West.

Pakistanis in the West often immigrate to permanently settle down, and acquire permanent forms of residency rights, such as citizenship. They often develop not just multiple legal identities as a result, but also perceptions of self that become multilayered. This becomes even truer of their offspring; going by the third generation British-Pakistanis I see in London, while sympathetic towards Pakistan, they see themselves as profoundly British, with being Pakistani often a distant afterthought. Being British Muslim is often more important than being British Pakistani. Their knowledge of local Pakistani languages is generally always very poor or non-existent. Few of this lot, first or later generations, ever return to Pakistan.

Contrast this with what is still the majority of Pakistani origin people overseas, those in the Middle East, specifically the Gulf Arab states. Here, there is generally no change to ones legal identity (or even perceptions of self) no matter how long one has been in the host nation. Your stay is only as long as your employment contract, or the employment contract of your spouse/parent. This also applies to children born in these countries, even if they may have grown up knowing no other country. As a result, there is in any given year, a big "churn" of Pakistanis coming and going from these countries. Therefore, simply taking the absolute figure as indicative without taking into account the large number of Pakistanis continually in the process of returning from spells of employment in the Gulf would not be accurate.

Also, while the article indicates that the Pakistan Bureau of Emigration is concerned with only Pakistanis going abroad to work, I wonder if it has assumed that all non-student Pakistanis automatically imply Pakistanis going abroad to work, and whether it has considered family reunification. This is because many Pakistanis are not going abroad to work; a significant proportion of them are family members, often spouses, joining Pakistanis living abroad. This is especially true of the UK, where the UK government has expressed concern about communities in Northern England having a deeply entrenched practice of arranged marriage to Pakistanis from Mirpur in Azad Kashmir (the place of origin of the majority of British Pakistanis), because of how it enables entry to the UK and citizenship in a short period of time for people who often are not just unskilled but lack knowledge of English.

Given given that the practice of marriage is, at least in the first and second generations of people of Pakistani origin, still at times impacted by some element of familial arrangement, this is not an insignificant factor, and any analysis by the Pakistan Bureau of Emigration should also seek to provide figures for it.

But for me the first point is most important; understanding migrations patterns (and the resulting debate about a "brain drain") would be made more meaningful if some allowance is made for the number of Pakistanis returning, especially from the Gulf Arab states where most overseas Pakistanis are located. Such returnees, often with substantial financial capital and enhanced skill sets, could mitigate to some degree perceived concerns about a permanent loss of talent and skills.

Riaz Haq said...

Legal Permanent Residents (Green cards) from Pakistan in Q1 of FY19 (Oct-Dec 2018)

Status Adjustment (of Pakistanis already in US) 1,270

New Arrivals (Pakistanis) in US: 2,233

Total From Pakistan: 3,503

Total From Bangladesh: 4,622

Total From South Korea: 4,782

Total From Vietnam: 9.693

Total From Philippines: 11,161

Total From India: 13,799

Total From China: 15,582

Total From Asia: 90,686

https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/special-reports/legal-immigration#File_end

Riaz Haq said...

17 million #Indian #emigrants abroad, up from 7 million in 1990, 143% increase. In this period, #India’s per capita #income increased by 522% ($1,134 to $7,055), providing more people the means to travel abroad in search of better #employment. #NRI #Modi https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/as-india-becomes-wealthier-17-mn-leave-the-country-to-settle-abroad-118112100113_1.html

At the same time, the number of unskilled migrants leaving the country has been falling: An estimated 391,000 left India in 2017, almost half the number in 2011 (637,000), according to a new report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

However this does not necessarily mean that an increasing proportion of India’s emigrants are likely to be higher skilled or that policymakers should be worried about a rise in ‘brain drain’--the exodus of highly trained professionals from their native country.

The above figures refer to unskilled migrants travelling on Emigration Check Required (ECR) passports--passports issued by the Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs to those leaving for employment in certain countries in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Changes in the government criteria used to class workers as unskilled, leading to more migrants travelling on non-ECR passports, could be part of the reason for the declining trend.

“Over the years India has made internal adjustments to who gets an ECR passport. A lot of people are entitled to non-ECR passports and take that route to migrate instead--this is data which is not publicly available and therefore can not be analysed,” Seeta Sharma, Technical Officer (ILO) for EU-India Cooperation and Dialogue on Migration and Mobility, told IndiaSpend.

“It’s hard to say if more highly skilled people are leaving than in any other period and that ‘brain drain’ is increasing. Skills have increased across the board generally so the country may be losing higher skilled people compared to previous generations, but we’ve always had talent leaving the country to a large extent.”

International emigration generally rises with economic development as more people acquire the financial means to travel abroad, and only begins to reduce when countries reach upper-middle income status.

Labour demand driven by constrained local employment markets is a key motivation for international migration, with 73% of all migrants globally entering the workforce in their host country, the ADB report found.

India’s working age population is currently growing by 1.3 million each month, exacerbating a stagnant job market that is further afflicted by a lack of employment. As many as 20.8 million people applied for 90,000 available jobs with the Indian Railways, the country’s largest public-sector employer, the Times of India reported in March 2018.

Searching for a better life

Over almost three decades, between 1990-2017, India witnessed waves of skilled and unskilled labour emigration.

Indians living in the middle-eastern Arab state of Qatar increased 82,669%--from 2,738 to 2.2 million--over 27 years to 2017, more than in any other country.

In the two years between 2015-2017, the Indian population in Qatar more than tripled, rising by 250%.

Oman (688%) and the United Arab Emirates (622%) also feature in the top 10 countries for the largest increases in Indian residents between 1990-2017, while in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, over seven years to 2017, Indian populations rose by 110% and 78% respectively.

These figures reflect the response of Indian workers to rapidly expanding economies in the Gulf, buoyed by rising oil prices. As these oil-rich nations embarked on large-scale development projects, workers from India and other South Asian countries answered the call for the growing number of construction jobs needing to be filled.

Riaz Haq said...

Why do 30,000-40,000 #migrants from #Pakistan head to #Europe every year? Prof Andreas Schloenhardt: Pakistan has a strong #expat community abroad; many #Pakistanis have family abroad, so they hope to join their families. #migration https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/22133/why-do-migrants-from-pakistan-head-to-europe via @InfoMigrants

According to estimates by the Pakistani authorities, some 30,000 to 40,000 people from Pakistan attempt illegal passage to Europe via Iran and Turkey every year. InfoMigrants spoke to an expert to find out which factors lead to this trend.

InfoMigrants: What are the main causes that force people from Pakistan to undertake perilous journeys towards Europe?

Andreas Schloenhardt: The causes are complex and involve lots of factors from the Pakistani context; such as slow economic development, a fragile security situation, regularly occurring natural disasters and political instability. This leads to a scarcity of opportunities for higher education and skilled employment. In addition, Pakistan has a strong expat community abroad; many Pakistanis have family abroad, so they hope to join their families.

The majority of migrants heading to European countries tend to come from the Gujrat district in Pakistan’s western Punjab province. This trend has persisted for several decades now. How effective will legislation prove to be in limiting illegal migration from Pakistan?

In many parts of Pakistan, economic development and job opportunities are very limited and those are the main reasons for migration. Any laws or other measures to combat smuggling of migrants and close migration routes do nothing to address the main causes of migration and displacement. What is needed, are laws that manage and regulate emigration from Pakistan and entry into other countries, as well as mechanisms to facilitate the return of Pakistani nationals.

Pakistan has a labor migration policy that seeks to assist and protect Pakistani nationals seeking employment abroad (mostly in the Gulf region). This is however rarely matched by legislation in the receiving countries that control and manage incoming labor migrants. Much can be done on that front to push irregular migration into legal avenues.

Furthermore, many Pakistanis found to be in Europe unlawfully cannot just be returned to Pakistan as the country is slow at, and sometimes refuses to issue travel documents. Plus, quite a few countries don’t have any agreements with Pakistan to facilitate the return of migrants.

Smuggling of migrants is what they call a trans-national crime. Is anything being done at a trans-national level to combat this crime and to apprehend networks of smugglers who are spread across many regions and countries?

There are ample international initiatives to prevent and combat the smuggling of migrants on the international level. Chief among them is the Protocol against the Smuggling of Migrants. Regrettably, the problem of migrant smuggling seems to be receiving less attention from European governments now than compared to three or four years ago; only a few states actively engage in forums to make the protocol function and enhance international cooperation.

Furthermore, too little is being done to stop the smuggling of migrants overall. The Global Compact on Migration that came into force a year ago also provides durable solutions to stop smuggling of migrants, along with other forms of irregular migration. But, once more, many states are slow to implement meaningful responses; many remain hostile to them. The responsibility and fault here squarely rests with individual states, not with international organizations that stand ready to assist individual states.

Stopping smuggling of migrants seems not to be a priority in Pakistan - a country struggling with political instability, terrorism and a weak economy. Is this correct?

Riaz Haq said...

Remittances to #Pakistan jump over 9% in January 2020 totaling $1.90 billion vs $1.744 billion in Jan 2019. #Remittances for July-January period of current FY $13.3 billion vs $12.77 billion in prior fiscal year, an increase of 4.1%. https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/remittances-to-pakistan-jump-over-9-per-cent-in-january

During January 2020, remittances received from Saudi Arabia fell 8.4 per cent to $433.4 million while Pakistani nationals in the UAE remitted $395.5 million, a decline of 7.5 per cent.

Remittances from the other major markets such as the USA and UK fell 6.3 per cent and 7.9 per cent to $335.1 million and $299.1 million, respectively.

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Moreover, the State Bank of Pakistan also hiked payment limits against freelance services for an individual in computer and information systems and other freelance services from $5,000 per month to $25,000 in order to attract more foreign exchange.

"The enhancement in limit will facilitate freelancers to route greater value of funds through a more economical and efficient channel of home remittances and help in receiving foreign exchange flows through formal banking channels in the country. This would also enable freelancers to expand their business/ operations and engage new freelancers to join the workforce," the central bank said in its statement.

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Moody's: Rising workers’ #remittances bode well for #Pakistan #economy. In 2012-19 period, remittances rose at a compounded annual rate of nearly 9%, with majority of inflows coming from #GCC (54%), #US (16pc), #UK (16pc) and #Malaysia (7%). https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2020/02/17/increase-in-workers-remittances-bodes-well-for-pakistan-moodys/ via @Profitpk

An increase in worker’s remittances is positive for Pakistani banks and borrowers, as it supports deposit flows and strengthens household finances, according to the credit rating agency Moody’s.

In a report published on Monday, the agency said that the high levels of remittances have contributed to reported double-digit growth in residents’ household deposits.

Earlier on 12 February, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) released updated monthly data on workers’ remittances, which showed a 4pc increase in the monthly average for the fiscal year 2020, compared to the previous corresponding year.

According to SBP data, workers’ remittances received during the first seven months of FY20 amounted to a cumulative total of $13.3 billion.

The agency noted that the growth [in remittances] has provided a stable and low-cost deposit base to Pakistani banks, which in turn has enhanced banks’ profitability and increased their liquidity buffers.

The report further stated that the growth might help mitigate the effect of government deposit outflows. The SBP is considering introducing a Treasury Single Account, which will require government deposits to be placed with the SBP instead.

Despite Pakistan’s high-interest rates (unchanged since July 2019 at 13.25pc), the remittances have helped negate any associated challenges. That’s because households are better positioned to meet their financial obligations with banks.

Non-performing loans have also been maintained at historically low levels; consumer NPLs accounted for 5pc of total consumer loans as of the end of September 2019, while the system average NPL ratio was 8.8pc.

According to the World Bank, Pakistan was the seventh-largest recipient of remittances globally in 2018, with remittances inflows reaching $21 billion or 6.8pc of the country’s GDP.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistani diaspora bails out #Pakistan #economy. Account surplus of $424m in July 2020 vs current account deficit (CAD) of $613 million in July 2019. Remittances from diaspora reached monthly record $2,768 million in July 2020 #ImranKhan #PTI #COVID19 https://www.dawn.com/news/1576206

According to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) last week, the country received record-high remittances of $2.768 billion in the first month of the new fiscal year, following the record $23bn received during the outgoing financial year.

“This ($2.768bn) is the highest-ever level of remittances in a single month in Pakistan,” SBP had said.

“More good news for Pakistan economy,” Prime Minister Imran Khan had tweeted last week. “Remittances from overseas Pakistanis reached $2768 million in July 2020, highest ever amount in one month in the history of Pakistan.”

Separately, Planning Minister Asad Umar also lauded the current account surplus for July 2020 in a tweet today, recalling that the PTI government had "inherited" a deficit of $2 billion "as a legacy of PML-N", which was in power until 2018.

"Remember the current account deficits have led to massive external debt and compromises our independence and security," he added.

Earlier this month, while quoting data released by the Finance Ministry, Dawn had reported that since the PTI came to power, CAD had been brought down from $20bn to $3bn while exports were up despite Covid-19 demand stagnation while cost of borrowing had been brought down due to better debt management.

Riaz Haq said...

In the outgoing FY (2019-20), Pakistani expatriates remitted a record of $23.12 billion with more than 6% year-on-year (YoY) growth compared to $21.74 of FY 2018-19.


http://tribune.com.pk/article/97174/the-curious-case-of-pakistans-spiralling-remittances

The momentum has not only persisted but amplified in on-going FY 21 with a whopping $2.77 billion remittance in July, followed by an inflow of $2.095 billion in August. This unprecedented surge is bemusing, and what has baffled many is the fact that this escalation has occurred during the pandemic. So, what could the potential triggers to this mammoth inflow be?
The extraordinary leap can be primarily due to the tightening of informal money markets, which has augmented the inflow through formal banking channels. In the budget for FY 2020-21, the incumbents allocated Rs25 billion to formalise foreign remittances, which would aid in stockpiling foreign exchange reserves to service colossal national debt obligations.
Pakistanis typically used to carry cash in their luggage physically. But due to flight reduction and sparse international travels, they would have been compelled to access official banking channels for money transfers. Also, remittances might have incremented on account of significant job losses in the Gulf region due to the Covid-related recession. Hence the spiral may demonstrate high one-time repatriation of money back to Pakistan.
On the other hand, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has emphasised an orderly ‘market-based’ exchange rate management and sound policymaking under the Pakistan Remittance Initiative. The SBP sheds the spotlight on the reduction of the threshold for eligible transactions from $200 to $100 under the Reimbursement of Telegraphic Transfer (TT) Charges Scheme. It also stressed on adoption of digital channels and targeted marketing campaigns to promote formal routes. Similarly, IT-related freelance services’ payment limits have increased from $5,000 to $25,000 per individual per month. The SBP believes that it has facilitated to enhance home remittances through formal banking channels in Pakistan.
The crux of the matter is remittances will upslope further in the future due to effectuated compliance of formal banking channels. Still, the recent abnormal increment will ease down in the coming months when the western economies recuperate from the ramifications of the Covid-related slump.

Riaz Haq said...



Migrant workers from Asia’s developing countries have managed to send home record amounts of money in recent months, defying pandemic expectations and propping up home economies at a critical time.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/forex-and-remittance/remittance-boom-is-turning-into-a-bust-for-emerging-markets-in-asia/articleshow/78251096.cms


Remittance doomsayers see something else in the bigger-than-usual transfers: a coming crash, triggered by a bleak job market, particularly in the Middle East. As they see opportunity drying up along with demand for oil, workers are sending money home in advance of their own return.

Unlike Latin American countries, which continue to benefit from a tentative U.S. recovery, Asian countries are vulnerable to economic austerity in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Middle East. More than 60% of remittances to India, Bangladesh and Pakistan come from Gulf Cooperation Council countries, said Khurram Schehzad, chief executive officer at Karachi-based advisory Alpha Beta Core Solutions Pvt. The region is also the top destination for workers from the Philippines, lone of the world’s largest suppliers of overseas labor.

Saudi Arabia has already raised taxes and import fees to make up for falling oil revenue. Job cuts in the kingdom appear to target foreigners first, with Riyadh-based Jadwa Investment estimating more than a million foreign workers will leave the labor market this year.

After eight years of sending money to family in Karachi, Abdul Hanan Abro is one of the workers who will follow his money home. He was laid off from his acc ..He was laid off from his accounting job in Dubai in May and hasn’t found a new gig -- and he’s not the only one. “No one is getting anything,” said Abro. “Two to three of my friends have already moved back to Lahore. People are selling their cars and stuff, doing their final settlements.”

For Abro, coming home means starting over. He wants to use the savings he accumulated overseas to start a business. “It’s high time to just focus on what I was planning for two to three years now,” Abr ..coming home means starting over. He wants to use the savings he accumulated overseas to start a business. “It’s high time to just focus on what I was planning for two to three years now,” Abro said. “It’s better than wasting more time in finding a job in this market.”

In April, the World Bank predicted overseas workers would send home 20% less this year, the biggest drop since at least 1980. The lender hasn’t updated its forecast to reflect the recent resilience, but a decline is still ..

“People are returning home,” said Thomas Isaac, the finance minister for Kerala, which accounts for the country’s largest share of remittances. “Therefore, they bring back all their savings.” India is the world’s top recipient of transfers and a leading supplier of labor to the gulf; it took in $83 billion last year, exceeding the $51 billion it took in as foreign direct investment.

Overall, remittances to the Asia-Pacific region will drop 12% in the second half of 2020 compared with th ..

Kerala’s proud record for near-total literacy gave its citizens a leg-up over other Indians — not to mention Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and others — seeking jobs in the Gulf. Despite their better education, the overwhelming majority of Keralites did jobs that indeed required being “roasted in the desert sun,” as Dad put it. In the classic migration pattern, young men endured great physical hardship and forewent luxuries to save up, remit money home and bring over friends and relatives. The steady ..

Riaz Haq said...

#Japan to boost efforts to recruit #Pakistan tech workers. Amb Matsuda said in Tokyo there are 300,000 well-trained information technology engineers in Pakistan, both countries will assign officials in embassies to facilitate #tech labor.- The Mainichi

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20201008/p2g/00m/0bu/106000c

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan and Pakistan plan to intensify coordination so Japan can accept technology workers from the South Asian country amid a chronic shortage of workers skilled in information technology, according to the Japanese ambassador to Pakistan.

Kuninori Matsuda, in a recent interview in Tokyo, said there are 300,000 well-trained information technology engineers in Pakistan, and that the two countries will each assign officials in their embassies to facilitate the movement of tech labor.

The ambassador said Pakistan will soon post a diplomat in its embassy in Tokyo to handle tech labor, while the Japanese Embassy in Islamabad will increase staff to connect Japanese companies interested in hiring tech workers with Pakistanis who want to work in Japan. The embassy will also help with visa-related work.

"There's a huge need for them, mainly among small and midsize companies that, despite their willingness to embrace IT, are finding it hard to source workers," Matsuda said.

Following the recent launch of a new government led by Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Pakistan is looking forward to continuing to make progress with Japan in "dialogue and cooperation in a wide array of areas," the ambassador said.

-----------------

“We are about to open working visa for skilled Pakistan workers. We are planning to hire Pakistani skilled workers in good numbers. We need skilled workers, as our population is shrinking by each passing day. We are to sign an MOU with the Pakistan government in a month’s time, enabling the Pakistan skilled workers to have indefinite visa of Japan,” the ambassador said.

Kuninori said Pakistan was one of the 10 top countries from where Japan was planning to hire workers. ”We need skilled workers from Pakistan, as Pakistanis working there in Japan arevery devoted, honest and skilled and are contributing to the country’s development.”

The ambassador however said that for skilled people there was need to learn Japanese language. “Knowing Japanese language would be a must. It is one of the easiest languages around and easy to get used to.”

He said those who successfully get the visa and pass their first five years in Japan, would be eligible to take along their families with them. A high level exchanges by a prime minister and president would soon be materliased.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/543135-new-work-visas-pakistan-among-top-10-countries-for-japan-hiring

Riaz Haq said...

October #remittances to #Pakistan grow 14% to $2.3 billion, the 5th consecutive month above $2 billion. Remittances up 26.5% to $9.4 billion during the first 4 months of FY21, compared with July-Oct FY20. #economy #ImranKhan #PTI- Profit by Pakistan Today https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2020/11/12/october-remittances-grow-14pc-to-2-3bn/#.X63Oa81wOr8.twitter

Workers’ remittances amounted to $2.3 billion during October 2020, showing an increase of 14.1 per cent when compared with October 2019.

This is for the fifth consecutive month that workers’ remittances remained above $2 billion, according to latest figures released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.

A large part of the year-on-year (YoY) increase in October this year, 30pc, was sourced from Saudi Arabia, 16pc from the United States of America and 14.6pc from the United Kingdom (UK).

“Improvements in Pakistan’s FX market structure and its dynamics, efforts under the Pakistan Remittances Initiative (PRI) to formalise the flows and limited cross-border travelling contributed to the growth in remittances,” the SBP stated.

Meanwhile, on a cumulative basis, workers’ remittances rose 26.5pc to $9.4bn during the first four months of FY21, when compared with July-Oct FY20.

“These numbers were expected. The whole South Asia region is getting above-average inward remittances due to lockdown and reduction in flights and movement of unofficial funds,” said Muhammad Sohail of Topline Securities.

“In the short-run, this [the increase in remittances] will support local currency,” he added.

Earlier, a World Bank report had projected that remittances to Pakistan to grow at about 9pc in 2020, totalling about $24bn.

The World Bank attributed this increase to the diversion of remittances from informal to formal channels due to the difficulty of carrying money by hand under travel restrictions.

Riaz Haq said...

#Remittances from Overseas #Pakistanis remain above $2 billion. In aggregate, remittances rose to an unprecedented $11.8 billion during the 5-month period Jul-Nov FY21, 26.9% higher than the same period last year.- Business & Finance - Business Recorder
https://www.brecorder.com/news/40040135/trend-continues-remittances-from-overseas-pakistanis-remain-above-2bn

Continuing with the trend, remittances sent home by overseas Pakistanis remain above $2 billion mark for the 6th consecutive month.

As per the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), workers’ remittances maintained their strong momentum in November, remaining above $2 billion for a record sixth consecutive month. They rose to $2.34 billion, showing an increase of 2.4 percent over the previous month, while compared to the same period last year increased by 28pc.

As per the central bank data during the first five months of FY21, workers’ remittances have reached an unprecedented level of US$ 11.77 billion, 26.9 percent higher than the same period last year.

On average, workers’ remittances have been about half a billion (US$ 499 million) higher in each month of FY21 as compared to the same period last year.

Remittance inflows during the first five months of FY21 have mainly been sourced from Saudi Arabia ($ 3.3 billion), United Arab Emirates ($ 2.4 billion), United Kingdom ($ 1.6 billion) and United States ($ 1.0 billion).

SBP was of the view that this significant growth reflects continued government and SBP efforts to formalize remittances under Pakistan Remittances Initiative (PRI), growing use of digital channels amid limited international travel, orderly exchange market conditions and improved global economic activity.

Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, Pakistan's workers' remittances have managed to post strong growth, back in October home remittances sent by overseas Pakistan amounted to $ 2.3 billion, increasing by 14.1pc compared to October 2019.

Since June the country is receiving over $2 billion in home remittances monthly. In June, remittances amounted to $2.47 billion were arrived, while the country received highest-ever workers' remittances $2.76 billion in July.

Riaz Haq said...

Remittances to #Pakistan from overseas #Pakistanis jump 34% to $2.5 billion in May 2021. #Remittances climbed to an all-time high in 11 months of this fiscal year. Remittances surged 29.4% to $26.7 billion in July-May FY2021. #economy #diaspora

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/847709-remittances-rise-34pc-to-2-5bln-in-may


Remittances by overseas Pakistanis increased 34 percent year-on-year to $2.5 billion in May, staying above the $2 billion mark for a year, the central bank’s data showed on Thursday.

However, the remittances fell 10.4 percent in May from April “This fall was expected as remittances usually slow in the post Eid-ul-Fitr period,” the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said in a statement. As Eid fell in mid-May with markets closed a week earlier, there was some front-loading of remittances in April, it said. The usual post-Eid monthly dip was much smaller this year.

The seasonal decline in May less than half the average decline observed during FY2016-2019. In FY2020, remittances experienced an exceptional rise due to the easing of COVID lockdowns in the post-Eid period in Gulf countries, said the SBP.

Remittances climbed to an all-time high in 11 months of this fiscal year. Remittances surged 29.4 percent to $26.7 billion in July-May FY2021. These inflows during the first eleven months of FY2021 have already crossed the full FY2020 level by $3.6 billion.

Most remittance inflows came from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US). Remittances sourced from Saudi Arabia rose 19.5 percent to $7 billion in July-May FY2021.

From UAE, remittances increased 9.7 percent $5.6 billion. Pakistan received $3.7 billion in remittances from the UK in 11 months compared with $2.2 billion in the same period of last fiscal year.

Remittances from the U.S. increased 58 percent to $2.5 billion.

Record high inflows of workers’ remittances were driven by policy measures by the government and SBP to incentivise the use of formal channels, curtailed cross-border travel in the face of COVID-19, altruistic transfers to Pakistan amid the pandemic, and orderly foreign exchange market conditions, the SBP said.

Global air travel was far below the comparable 2019 levels, and therefore emigrants are likely to have continued to utilize the banking channels to support their families back home. Within Pakistan, policy measures undertaken by the government and the SBP to encourage inflows through formal means also contributed to the growth in remittances. Furthermore, continued policy support in the host destinations (especially the advanced economies) via unemployment benefits, rent and loan deferrals, and direct cash handouts, likely increased the ability of migrants to remit higher amounts back home. Also, the efforts by global money transfer operators and governments to incentivize migrants to adopt digital channels to remit funds have likely also played a role in pushing up inflows received via the banking system.

In Pakistan also, banks are being incentivised to introduce digital products to facilitate migrants in sending remittances under the Pakistan Remittance Initiative. Data shows that transaction volumes and amounts of international remittance transactions in Pakistan via the branchless banking mode (m-wallets) have grown quite strongly since the Covid-19 outbreak. Remittance flows are expected to remain strong on the back of continued surge in inflows across all the major corridors and the welcome turnaround in the trend of Pakistanis going abroad for work.

Riaz Haq said...

The number of international migrants reaches 272 million, continuing an upward trend in all world regions, says UN
17 September 2019, New York

https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/international-migrant-stock-2019.html

Increase in global number of international migrants continues to outpace growth of the world’s population

The number of international migrants globally reached an estimated 272 million in 2019, an increase of 51 million since 2010. Currently, international migrants comprise 3.5 per cent of the global population, compared to 2.8 per cent in the year 2000, according to new estimates released by the United Nations today.

The International Migrant Stock 2019, a dataset released by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) today, provides the latest estimates of the number of international migrants by age, sex and origin for all countries and areas of the world. The estimates are based on official national statistics on the foreign-born or the foreign population obtained from population censuses, population registers or nationally representative surveys.

Mr. Liu Zhenmin, UN Under-Secretary-General for DESA, said that “These data are critical for understanding the important role of migrants and migration in the development of both countries of origin and destination. Facilitating orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility of people will contribute much to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.

In 2019, regionally, Europe hosts the largest number of international migrants (82 million), followed by Northern America (59 million) and Northern Africa and Western Asia (49 million).

At the country level, about half of all international migrants reside in just 10 countries, with the United States of America hosting the largest number of international migrants (51 million), equal to about 19 per cent of the world’s total. Germany and Saudi Arabia host the second and third largest numbers of migrants (13 million each), followed by the Russian Federation (12 million), the United Kingdom (10 million), the United Arab Emirates (9 million), France, Canada and Australia (around 8 million each) and Italy (6 million).

Concerning their place of birth, one-third of all international migrants originate from only ten countries, with India as the lead country of origin, accounting for about 18 million persons living abroad. Migrants from Mexico constituted the second largest “diaspora” (12 million), followed by China (11 million), the Russian Federation (10 million) and the Syrian Arab Republic (8 million).

The share of international migrants in total population varies considerably across geographic regions with the highest proportions recorded in Oceania (including Australia and New Zealand) (21.2%) and Northern America (16.0%) and the lowest in Latin America and the Caribbean (1.8%), Central and Southern Asia (1.0%) and Eastern and South-Eastern Asia (0.8%).

Riaz Haq said...

The number of international migrants reaches 272 million, continuing an upward trend in all world regions, says UN
17 September 2019, New York

https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/international-migrant-stock-2019.html


Most international migrants move between countries located within the same region. A majority of international migrants in sub-Saharan Africa (89%), Eastern and South-Eastern Asia (83%), Latin America and the Caribbean (73%), and Central and Southern Asia (63 %) originated from the region in which they reside. By contrast, most of the international migrants that lived in Northern America (98%), Oceania (88%) and Northern Africa and Western Asia (59%) were born outside their region of residence.

Forced displacements across international borders continues to rise. Between 2010 and 2017, the global number of refugees and asylum seekers increased by about 13 million, accounting for close to a quarter of the increase in the number of all international migrants. Northern Africa and Western Asia hosted around 46 per cent of the global number of refugees and asylum seekers, followed by sub-Saharan Africa (21%).

Turning to the gender composition, women comprise slightly less than half of all international migrants in 2019. The share of women and girls in the global number of international migrants fell slightly, from 49 per cent in 2000 to 48 per cent in 2019. The share of migrant women was highest in Northern America (52%) and Europe (51%), and lowest in sub-Saharan Africa (47%) and Northern Africa and Western Asia (36%).

In terms of age, one out of every seven international migrants is below the age of 20 years. In 2019, the dataset showed that 38 million international migrants, equivalent to 14 per cent of global migrant population, were under 20 years of age. Sub-Saharan Africa hosted the highest proportion of young persons among all international migrants (27%), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern Africa and Western Asia (about 22% each).

Three out of every four international migrants are of working age (20-64 years). In 2019, 202 million international migrants, equivalent to 74 per cent of the global migrant population, were between the ages of 20 and 64. More than three quarters of international migrants were of working age in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, Europe and Northern America.

Riaz Haq said...

COVID-19 has disrupted all forms of human mobility through the closing of national borders and halting of travel worldwide. Preliminary estimates suggest that the pandemic may have slowed the growth in the stock of international migrants by around two million by mid-2020, 27 per cent less than the growth expected since mid-2019, according to a report by the United Nations released today.

https://www.un.org/en/desa/international-migration-2020-highlights


Growth in the number of international migrants has been robust over the last two decades, reaching 281 million people living outside their country of origin in 2020, up from 173 million in 2000 and 221 million in 2010. Currently, international migrants represent about 3.6 per cent of the world’s population.

The report, International Migration 2020 Highlights, by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), provides the latest estimates of the number of international migrants by country of destination, origin, age and sex for all countries and areas of the world.

Mr. Liu Zhenmin, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, said “The report affirms that migration is a part of today’s globalized world and shows how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the livelihoods of millions of migrants and their families and undermined progress in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.”

The report found that two thirds of all international migrants live in just 20 countries. The United States of America remained the largest destination, hosting 51 million international migrants in 2020, equal to 18 per cent of the world’s total. Germany hosted the second largest number of migrants worldwide, at around 16 million, followed by Saudi Arabia (13 million), the Russian Federation (12 million) and the United Kingdom (9 million).

India topped the list of countries with the largest diasporas in 2020, with 18 million persons from India living outside of their country of birth. Other countries with a large transnational community included Mexico and the Russian Federation (11 million each), China (10 million) and Syria (8 million).

Diasporas contribute to the development of their countries of origin through the promotion of foreign investment, trade, access to technology and financial inclusion. However, according to projections by the World Bank, the COVID-19 pandemic may reduce the volume of remittances sent to low-and middle-income countries from USD 548 billion in 2019 to USD 470 billion in 2021, a decline of USD 78 billion or 14 per cent. The loss has affected the livelihoods of millions of migrants and their families, stalling progress in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. National strategies and international cooperation will be needed to mitigate the effects of this loss.

Among the major regions of the world, the largest number of international migrants in 2020 resided in Europe, with a total of 87 million. Northern America hosted the second largest number of migrants, with almost 59 million. Northern Africa and Western Asia followed with a total of nearly 50 million.

In 2020, nearly half of all international migrants resided in the region from which they originated, with Europe accounting for the largest share of intra-regional migration: 70 per cent of migrants born in Europe reside in another European country. The share of intra-regional migration among migrants originating in sub‑Saharan Africa was 63 per cent. At the other end of the spectrum, Central and South Asia had the largest share of its diaspora residing outside the region, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern America.

Riaz Haq said...

COVID-19 has disrupted all forms of human mobility through the closing of national borders and halting of travel worldwide. Preliminary estimates suggest that the pandemic may have slowed the growth in the stock of international migrants by around two million by mid-2020, 27 per cent less than the growth expected since mid-2019, according to a report by the United Nations released today.

https://www.un.org/en/desa/international-migration-2020-highlights


In 2020, nearly half of all international migrants resided in the region from which they originated, with Europe accounting for the largest share of intra-regional migration: 70 per cent of migrants born in Europe reside in another European country. The share of intra-regional migration among migrants originating in sub‑Saharan Africa was 63 per cent. At the other end of the spectrum, Central and South Asia had the largest share of its diaspora residing outside the region, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern America.

Nearly two thirds of all international migrants live in high-income countries, in contrast with just 31 per cent in middle-income countries and around 4 per cent in low-income countries. On the other hand, low- and middle-income countries hosted 80 per cent of the world’s refugees in 2020. Refugees comprise around three per cent of all international migrants in high-income countries, compared to 25 per cent in middle-income countries and 50 per cent in low-income countries.

In 2020, refugees accounted for 12 per cent of all international migrants, up from 9.5 per cent in 2000, as forced displacements across national borders continued to rise faster than voluntary migration. Between 2000 and 2020, the number that had fled conflict, crises, persecution, violence or human rights violations doubled from 17 to 34 million.

Migrant women are catalysts of change, promoting positive social, cultural and political norms within their homes and throughout their communities. Nearly half of all international migrants worldwide were women or girls. In 2020, the number of female migrants slightly exceeded male migrants in Europe, Northern America and Oceania, partially due to a higher life expectancy of women over men. In sub-Saharan Africa and Western Asia, males tend to significantly exceed the number of females, which is attributed to temporary labour migration.

International migrants often make up a larger proportion of working-age persons compared to the national population. In 2020, 73 per cent of all international migrants were between the ages of 20 and 64 years, compared to 57 per cent for the total population. In the absence of international migrants, the ratio of persons aged 65 years or above per 100 persons aged 20 to 64 years, or old-age dependency ratio, in high-income countries would have been nearly 3 percentage points higher in 2020.

With the adoption of landmark agreements by the General Assembly, including the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants and the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, countries have begun to adopt measures to facilitate safe, orderly and regular migration. Globally, 54 per cent of the 111 Governments that responded to a recent survey reported having such policies.

File date:
Friday, January 15, 2021

Riaz Haq said...

The New Population Bomb

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/The-new-population-bomb

"A few years ago, we would get three times more recruits than we could accept," observed an employee with a staffing company in Vietnam that recruits workers for Japan's Technical Intern Training Program. "These days, we can barely get twice as many. Within five years, the number of people working away from home may start to drop."

Many Asian economies have experienced this phenomenon already, known in economics as the Lewis turning point, after British economist W. Arthur Lewis. Workers migrate from rural areas to cities, supporting economic growth by working for low wages. Eventually, growth stops because of rising wages and a shrinking labor force.

The answer, in many cases has been immigrants, which have contributed to growth in developed countries after population growth slowed. According to the U.N., there were 281 million international migrants in 2020, 1.6 times more than roughly 20 years earlier.

Border restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted how dependent some countries have become on foreign workers.



Without immigration, many advanced economies already cannot sustain their labor pool. In the U.K. after Brexit, the combination of immigration restrictions and the pandemic has led to a severe labor shortage. Before the pandemic, 12% of heavy truck drivers were from the European Union. However, drivers can no longer be hired from outside the country under the U.K.'s new standards. According to the British Road Haulage Association, the country faces a shortage of more than 100,000 commercial heavy truck drivers. Logistics companies are becoming desperate, raising hourly wages by 30%.

The lack of immigration may not be a temporary phenomenon. The countries with the most outbound immigrants are seeing their young populations decline. The number of Indians between the ages of 15 and 29 will peak in 2025. In China that cohort will drop by about 20% in the next 30 years.

The Philippines, one of the biggest labor-exporting countries in the world, where about 10% of the population is thought to work abroad, is also showing signs of reversing course to focus on domestic production. The country is increasing the amount of domestic contract work, such as call centers. The incoming amount of overseas remittances grew by over 7% year-on-year in the first half of the 2010s, but that slowed to 3% in 2018.

Some countries have already started trying to secure workers. Germany increased its acceptance of non-EU workers in 2020. In 2019, Australia increased the maximum length of working holidays from two years to three, on the condition that people work for a set period of time in sectors where there is a labor shortage, such as agriculture. Japan also is bringing in more foreign workers through the "specified skilled worker" system.

Economic forces may drive a new competition among nations for immigrants. One key is to become a "country of choice." "A policy of actively accepting immigrants means it is important to expand the options for foreign workers to settle and live in a country permanently," said Keizo Yamawaki, a professor at Meiji University in Tokyo who specializes in immigration policy.

Riaz Haq said...

#India #Abortions: India faces crisis of unintended pregnancies. One in every 7 such pregnancies worldwide occurring in India. Globally, 48% of all pregnancies were unintended, 61% of which ended in induced abortion. #population https://www.deccanherald.com/national/india-faces-crisis-of-unintended-pregnancies-1096315.html

“The 2022 State of World Population Report brings to the fore the silent crises of unintended pregnancy with one in seven such cases worldwide occurring in India. In spite of safe, modern, and reversible contraceptives, the most popular method is female sterilisation with its acceptance at 38%,” said Andrea Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative and Bhutan Country Director. “Sterilisation can’t delay or space pregnancies, which is important for preventing unintended or mistimed pregnancies, especially in the young population. What is also a concern is that 67% of abortions have been termed unsafe putting women and young girls at risk. This is a wake-up call.” According to the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-21) report on adolescent fertility, women in the 15-19 age group have a ratio of 43 births per 1,000 women, which is a decline from NFHS-4 ratio of 51 per 1,000. More than 23% women aged 20-24 were married before attaining the age 18 (NFHS-5)

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan-born diaspora in OECD countries as of 2019/20:

Austria 4,112

Belgium 5,927

Denmark 10,669

France 21,900 (2017)

Germany 75,495

Ireland 7,351 (2016)

Italy 121,609

Japan 17,766

Korea 11,523

Netherlands 4,723

Norway 5,157

Portugal 5,310

Spain 61,953

Sweden 11,674

Turkey 8,332


https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=MIG

Riaz Haq said...

The changing geography of remittance inflows


https://tribune.com.pk/story/2312688/the-changing-geography-of-remittance-inflows

The performance of these traditional sources of remittances mostly located in the Persian Gulf and North America ( Saudi Arabia, UAE, US, UK) pales in comparison with the growth in remittances from the younger communities sprouting in Europe and Asia Pacific. Remittances from EU countries (excluding the UK) increased by a spectacular 663.7% during the 2010-11 to 2020-21 period. Inflows from Germany and the Netherlands grew threefold, while those from Sweden grew fivefold. Growth was even higher for the three Latin countries, Spain (651%), France (957%) and Italy (1,128%). The best growth rate was achieved for Greece and Belgium, from where remittances grew 23 and 72 times, respectively. The growing diaspora in Australia and Japan too appears to send significantly more, with remittances from the two countries growing five and ninefold in the past 10 years, respectively.

In the preceding two decades, thousands of Pakistanis went to work in Europe, mainly to Southern European countries. Many of them were initially irregular workers who have since become legal residents, and can now use formal means of transferring money to their families back home. The Pakistani community in several countries in northern Europe and Australia has by contrast grown chiefly through emigration and settling down of university graduates.

As a result of these growth differentials, fast-growing remittances from Pakistani communities based in Europe and the Far East have gained importance overtime at the cost of slow-growing flows from the US. While transfers from the six Gulf states have maintained their lion’s share of Pakistan’s remittances of about 58%, those from the EU have grown threefold, from 3.1% in FY11 to 9.2% in FY21. Similarly, the relative share of remittances from Australia and Japan, which used to be negligible until recently, has collectively grown threefold in the past 10 years. Thanks to these changes in regional distribution, Europe has now become Pakistan’s second major sending region after the Persian Gulf, replacing North America, while the hitherto insignificant community in Asia Pacific is gradually coming into its own. Although Pakistan’s heavy reliance on the GCC states for its remittances has not yet waned, the increasing number of countries where Pakistani communities are getting settled and beginning to send significant amounts of money augurs well for the stability and durability of the country’s remittances.

Riaz Haq said...

Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment has registered 88,353 emigrants
during March, 2022 for overseas employment in different countries.

https://www.finance.gov.pk/economic/economic_update_April_2022.pdf

Social Sector
− PPAF through its 24 Partner Organizations has disbursed 44,386 interest free
loans amounting to Rs 2.0 billion during the month of March 2022. Since inception
of interest free loan component, a total of 1,805,297 interest free loans amounting
to Rs 64.9 billion have been disbursed to the borrowers.
− Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment has registered 88,353 emigrants
during March, 2022 for overseas employment in different countries.
− Under Kamyab Jawan Youth Entrepreneurship Scheme (PMKJ-YES) the amount
disbursed stands at Rs 36,846 million till February 2022 to the youth for
businesses
− Covid-19 pandemic has been successfully contained by the government with its
mass vaccination drive. The NCOC is dissolved keeping in view the persistently
falling positivity rate.
− The Ministry of FE&PT and Malala Fund signed a Letter of Understanding (LoU) to
work together on promotion of STEAM in girls high schools.
− Federal Board of Intermediate and Secondary Education (FBISE) has partnered
with the Easy-Paisa for facilitating students for digital fee-payments

Riaz Haq said...

#India population to surpass #China's in 2023. Over half of global population increase up to 2050 will be in just 8 countries: Dem Republic of #Congo, #Egypt, #Ethiopia, #India, #Nigeria, #Pakistan, #Philippines & #Tanzania. https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf

For 10 countries, the estimated net outflow of migrants exceeded 1 million over the period from
2010 through 2021. In many of these countries, the outflows were due to temporary labour
movements, such as for Pakistan (net flow of -16.5 million), India (-3.5 million), Bangladesh
(-2.9 million), Nepal (-1.6 million) and Sri Lanka (-1.0 million). In other countries, including
Syrian Arab Republic (-4.6 million), Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) (-4.8 million) and
Myanmar (-1.0 million), insecurity and conflict drove the outflow of migrants over this period.
• All countries, whether experiencing net inflows or outflows of migrants, should take steps to
facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration, in accordance with SDG target 10.7.

------------------

Between 2010 and 2021, 40 countries or areas have experienced a net inflow of more than
200,000 migrants; in 17 of those, the total net inflow exceeded 1 million people.
In 2020, Türkiye hosted the largest number of refugees and asylum seekers worldwide (nearly 4 million),
followed by Jordan (3 million), the State of Palestine (2 million) and Colombia (1.8 million). Other major
destination countries of refugees, asylum seekers or other persons displaced abroad were Germany,
Lebanon, Pakistan, Sudan, Uganda and the United States of America (United Nations, 2020b).

Riaz Haq said...

UK Adds 226 New Visa Categories to Urgently Hire Skilled Workers


https://propakistani.pk/2023/05/18/uk-adds-226-new-visa-categories-to-urgently-hire-skilled-workers/


Exciting opportunities have emerged for Pakistani youth seeking employment abroad as the United Kingdom opens its doors to skilled workers from around the world, including Pakistan.

In response to the severe manpower shortage currently faced by Britain, the country has introduced a significant expansion in its immigration policies.


According to official reports, a total of 226 new immigration categories have been established, accompanied by a noteworthy increase in the minimum wage across all job categories.

This development marks the first time that professions such as police officers, journalists, judges, secret officers, barristers, lawyers, and flight pilots have been included in the immigration category. Furthermore, an additional 31 categories have been designated, encompassing diverse fields such as musicians, dancers, doctors, actors, and scientists.

The expanded opportunities extend beyond specific professions, as drivers, instructors, railway station assistants, air hostesses, cabin crew, veterinary doctors, and tailors are now eligible to pursue employment in the UK. Moreover, individuals with expertise in areas such as masonry, aircraft engineering, AC/fridge engineering, welding, charity work, and estate agency will also find potential avenues for relocation.

Students pursuing education in the UK can now benefit from the post-study work facility, which allows them to gain valuable work experience following the completion of their studies. Notably, highly-educated professionals can anticipate a substantial 20 percent increase in their remuneration, as highlighted in the official letter.

To facilitate the approved manpower shortage category, the UK government has taken steps to keep visa fees at a reasonable level, ensuring accessibility for individuals seeking employment opportunities in the country.

These progressive changes in the UK’s immigration policies provide an encouraging prospect for skilled workers from Pakistan and around the world. The reduced visa fees and the inclusion of a diverse range of professions reflect the British government’s commitment to addressing the pressing shortage of manpower while simultaneously welcoming talented individuals to contribute to the country’s workforce.

Aspiring professionals from Pakistan are encouraged to explore these newfound possibilities, which not only promise career growth but also cultural exchange and personal development. The opportunities available in the UK cater to a wide spectrum of skills and talents, fostering an environment where individuals can thrive and make significant contributions to their chosen fields.


With these favorable policy revisions, Pakistanis can now embark on a transformative journey, utilizing their expertise to build successful careers and establish meaningful connections in the United Kingdom.

Riaz Haq said...

The UK has become one of the world’s most accepting places for foreign workers, according to a survey in 24 nations revealing a sharp increase in British acceptance of economic migration.


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/feb/23/uk-now-among-most-accepting-countries-for-foreign-workers-survey-finds


Shortfall of 330,000 workers in UK due to Brexit, say thinktanks
Read more

People in the UK emerged as less likely to think that when jobs are scarce employers should give priority to people of their own country than those in Norway, Canada, France, Spain, the US, Australia and Japan. Only Germany and Sweden were more open on that question.

In what the study’s authors described as “an extraordinary shift”, only 29% of people in the UK in 2022 said priority over jobs should go to local people, compared with 65% when the same question was asked in 2009.

The findings come as employers call for more migration to help fill more than 1m vacancies, and after the prime minister appointed the anti-immigration firebrand Lee Anderson as deputy chair of the Conservative party. He has called people arriving in small boats on the south coast “criminals” and called for them to be “sent back the same day”. Police have been deployed to hotels where asylum seekers are being housed amid violent protests by anti-immigration activists.

“It was unthinkable a decade ago that the UK would top any international league table for positive views of immigration,” said Prof Bobby Duffy, the director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London, who shared the findings from the latest round of the survey exclusively with the Guardian and the BBC. “But that’s where we are now, with the UK the least likely, from a wide range of countries, to say we should place strict limits on immigration or prohibit it entirely.”

The UK ranked fourth out of 24 nations for the belief that immigrants have a very or quite good impact on the development of the country – ahead of Norway, Spain, the US and Sweden.

One factor in the shift in opinions on the question of “British jobs for British workers” may be that in 2009 the UK was in a deep recession, with more than double today’s unemployment, whereas today the economy suffers from a worker shortage, with 1.1m vacancies in the UK, 300,000 more than before the pandemic.

Robert Jenrick, the immigration minister, last year urged employers to look to the British workforce in the first instance and “get local people”, although the government has widened visa programmes for seasonal workers and care staff.

Duffy said the findings showed that “it’s time to listen more carefully to public attitudes”. He said: “Politicians often misread public opinion on immigration. In the 2000s, Labour government rhetoric and policy on this issue was more relaxed than public preferences, and arguably they paid the price – but the current government is falling into the reverse trap.”

People in the UK are now the least likely of the 24 countries that participate in the World Values Survey study to think immigration increases unemployment, and second from top in thinking that immigrants fill important job vacancies.

They are very likely to say immigration boosts cultural diversity, and very unlikely to think immigration comes with crime and safety risks. However, more people in the UK think immigration leads to “social conflict” than in several other countries, including Canada, Japan and China.

Riaz Haq said...

Why Americans Are Having Fewer Babies - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-americans-are-having-fewer-babies-3be7f6a9

The number of babies born in the U.S. started plummeting 15 years ago and hasn’t recovered since. What looked at first like a temporary lull triggered by the 2008 financial crisis has stretched into a prolonged fertility downturn. Provisional monthly figures show that there were about 3.66 million babies born in the U.S. last year, a decline of 15% since 2007, even though there are 9% more women in their prime childbearing years.

The decline has demographers puzzled and economists worried. America’s longstanding geopolitical advantages, they say, are underpinned by a robust pool of young people. Without them, the U.S. economy will be weighed down by a worsening shortage of workers who can fill jobs and pay into programs like Social Security that care for the elderly. At the heart of the falling birthrate is a central question: Do American women simply want fewer children? Or are life circumstances impeding them from having the children that they desire?


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To maintain current population levels, the total fertility rate—a snapshot of the average number of babies women have over their lifetime—must stay at a “replacement rate” of 2.1 children per woman. In 2021, the U.S. rate was 1.66. Had fertility rates stayed at their 2007 peak, the U.S. would now have 9.6 million more kids, according to Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire.



Federal agencies are treating the slump like a temporary downturn. The Social Security Administration’s board of trustees projects that the total fertility rate will slowly climb to 2 by 2056 and hold there until the end of the century. Yet it’s been over a decade since fertility rates reached that level. Last year there were 2.8 workers for every Social Security recipient. That ratio is projected to shrink to 2.2 by 2045, roughly two-thirds what it was in 2000.



Some other developed countries are in a far deeper childbearing trough than the U.S. In South Korea, the total fertility rate hit a world record low of 0.84 in 2020 and has since sagged to 0.78. Italy’s rate slid to 1.24 last year. China’s population fell in 2022 for the first time in decades because its fertility rate has been far below the replacement rate for years. Its two-century reign as the world’s most populous country is expected to end this year when India overtakes it, if it hasn’t already.

In a recent note to clients, Neil Howe, a demographer at Hedgeye Risk Management, pointed to a World Bank report showing that the 2020s could be a second consecutive “lost decade” for global economic growth, in large part because of worsening demographics. By 2026 or 2027, he wrote, the growth rate of the working-age population in the entire high-income and emerging-market world will turn from slightly positive to slightly negative, reversing a durable driver of economic growth since the Industrial Revolution.



This shift will make the U.S. more dependent on immigration to supply enough workers to keep the economy humming. Immigrants accounted for 80% of U.S. population growth last year, census figures show, up from 35% just over a decade ago. Yet the number of young immigrant women coming to the U.S. has diminished, Johnson said, and the decline in fertility has been greatest among Hispanics.

Having fewer children has already changed the social fabric of the country’s schools, neighborhoods and churches. J.P. De Gance, president and founder of Communio, a nonprofit that helps churches encourage marriage, said that lower marriage and birth rates are one of the largest drivers of the decline in religious affiliation that’s left pews empty across the country. That matters for the whole community, De Gance said, because churches give lonely people a place to form friendships, as well as feeding hungry people and running schools that fill gaps in public education. “When that’s diminished, the entire culture’s diminished,” he said.

Riaz Haq said...

Indians and Pakistanis in Australia as per 2016 Census

Pakistanis

People 61,915

Male 37,720

Female 24,195

Australian citizen 42.3%

Not an Australian citizen 56.0%

https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2016/7106_0


Indians

People 455,388
Male 245,416
Female 209,972
Australian citizen 48.1%
Not an Australian citizen 50.8%

https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2016/7103_0

Riaz Haq said...

Aging Japan wants foreign workers, but will they come?

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia-Insight/Aging-Japan-wants-foreign-workers-but-will-they-come

TOKYO -- With Japan's population shrinking, the world's third-largest economy is becoming more serious about accepting foreign workers.

Yet various factors -- from the country's sluggish wage growth and old corporate cultures to Asian peers' new visa programs and rising pay levels in emerging economies -- pose challenges to Japan's efforts, clouding its prospects in an age of global talent competition.

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Yamada of the Japan Research Institute said developed nations are scrambling to attract IT talent, "but Japan lags behind because of its lower pay."

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the average wage in Japan rose only 3% between 2001 and 2021. That compares poorly to South Korea's 40% and the U.S.'s 29% in the same period. The median salary for software engineers in Japan last year was 23% lower than that of Singapore and 17% lower than in Seoul, according to data from Levels.fyi, an online site that compares tech salaries.

Elsewhere in the region, the race to attract foreign talent has been intensifying after the COVID-19 pandemic, with many jurisdictions offering new programs. Singapore this year launched a new visa to lure highly skilled professionals, allowing those earning at least 30,000 Singapore dollars ($22,000) a month to stay five years and work for multiple employers.

Thailand and Malaysia are among the other nations that also have introduced new visa programs permitting longer stays by professionals in areas like electric vehicles and investment. Elsewhere, highly skilled workers are increasingly wanted, reflecting digital transformations and the emergence of new technologies, such as artificial intelligence.

An OECD study on migrant workers published in March found that New Zealand, Sweden and Switzerland are the most attractive countries for highly skilled workers. The study took into account factors such as educational standards, ease of obtaining citizenship for children of migrants and English proficiency as drivers attracting talent from abroad.

Riaz Haq said...

Country’s brain drain situation accelerated in 2022
Official documents showed more than 765,000 educated youth leave country for employment overseas


https://tribune.com.pk/story/2390704/countrys-brain-drain-situation-accelerated-in-2022

According to the official documents from the Bureau of Emigrants, this year 765,000 young people went abroad. The documents also showed that the number of emigrants had risen after registering a fall in two consecutive years, following 625,000 emigrations in 2019.

According to the documents, those who left the country in 2022, included more than 92,000 graduates, 350,000 trained workers and the same number of untrained labourers went abroad. The documents also showed that 736,000 people went to the Gulf states.

The emigrating educated youth included 5,534 engineers, 18,000 associate electrical engineers, 2,500 doctors, 2,000 computer experts, 6,500 accountants, 2,600 agricultural experts, over 900 teachers, 12,000 computer operators, 1,600 nurses and 21,517 technicians. The group of unskilled workers comprised 213,000 drivers.

According to the data, over 730,000 youth went to the Gulf States, nearly 40,000 went to European and other Asian countries. The country-wise break down of the data showed 470,000 Pakistanis headed to Saudi Arabia for employment, 119,000 to UAE, 77,000 to Oman, 51,634 to Qatar and 2,000 to Kuwait.

Also, according to the official documents, 2,000 Pakistanis went to Iraq, 5,000 to Malaysia, 602 to China, 815 to Japan, and 136 to Turkey. The documents also revealed that 478 Pakistan went to Sudan in Africa in search of employment.

The highest number of people emigrating to a European country was 3,160 youth, going to Romania. It was followed by 2,500 to Great Britain, 677 to Spain, 566 to Germany, 497 to Greece, and 292 to Italy. The Bureau of Emigrants also registered 700 people going to the United States.

More than half of those leaving the country were from Punjab. The documents said 424,000 emigrants this year were from Punjab, 206,000 from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa plus 38,000 from newly-merged tribal districts, 54,000 from Sindh, 27,000 from Azad Kashmir, 7,000 from Balochistan and 6,000 from Islamabad.