Monday, December 16, 2019

Is Pakistan Ready For Clean Energy Revolution?

Rising worries about climate change have recently made me join the Clean Energy Revolution by installing rooftop solar and leasing an electric car. What is the Clean Energy Revolution? It is the growing use of solar panels, battery storage and electric vehicles to reduce carbon emissions. Is Pakistan ready to join the Clean Energy Revolution?

Tesla Surpasses China's BYD in EV Sales. Courtesy Electrek

Tesla Electric Cars:

Silicon Valley is at the forefront of this clean energy revolution led by Tesla. Tesla is more than an electric car company; the company also supplies solar panels and batteries. Other automakers are also taking their cues from Tesla.  China's BYD Auto has only recently been surpassed by Tesla in production volumes. Auto giants General Motors and BMW are both building electric cars and planning to build "gigafactories" like Tesla's to manufacture battery packs for vehicles and homes. Pakistan is building up renewable power generation capacity. The country has also recently announced its National Electric Vehicle Policy that offers incentives to transition to clean energy.

Bloomberg estimates that Batteries and electric transmission account for about 40% of passenger cars’ costs. European demand is met by mainly Japanese and South Korean battery makers like Panasonic, LG Chem Ltd. and Samsung SDI Co. In the U.S., Tesla has built its own battery cells at its Gigafactory to manage costs and satisfy demand for the cars it produces. Chinese demand for battery packs is met by BYD.

Battery Backed Renewable Energy Costs:

High-capacity battery pack costs have dropped nearly 40% since 2015, according to Wood Mackenzie data as reported by Wall Street Journal. The prices of lithium and vanadium—two of several key raw materials that are used in such batteries—also have declined over the past year or so.

Battery storage costs have fallen nearly 90% in the past decade, according to NextEra Energy.  Cost reductions are expected to continue to only $8 to $14 per MW-hour by 2020, or about a penny per kW-hour. For perspective, the average kW-hour of electricity costs about 13 cents for retail users.

NextEra Energy forecasts that post-2023, wind plus energy storage costs will be $20 to $30 per MW-hour, and solar plus energy storage will be $30 to $40 per MW-hour. Natural gas is expected to match the solar-plus-storage costs.

Pakistan Electric Vehicle Policy:

Pakistan has a low level of motorization with just 9% of the households owning a car. Nearly half of all households own a motorcycle. Motorization rates in the country have tripled over the last decade and a half, resulting in nearly 40% of all emissions coming from vehicles. Concerns about climate change and environmental pollution have forced the government to to take a number of actions ranging from adoption of Euro6 emission standards for new vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE) since 2015 and announcement of a national electric vehicle (EV) policy this year.

Private vehicle ownership in Pakistan has risen sharply over the last 4 years. More than 9% of households now own cars, up from 6% in 2015. Motorcycle ownership has jumped from 41% of households in 2015 to 53% now, according to data released by Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) recently. There are 32.2 million households in Pakistan, according to 2017 Census.


Vehicle Ownership in Pakistan. Source: PBS

Pakistan's National EV Policy is a forward looking step needed to deal with climate concerns from growing transport sector emissions with rapidly rising vehicle ownership. It offers tax incentives for buyers and sellers. It also focuses on development of nationwide charging infrastructure to ease adoption of electric vehicles.

Low Carbon Energy Growth:

In recent years,  Pakistan government has introduced a number of supportive policies, including feed-in tariffs and a net metering program to incentivize renewables. These have been fairly successful, and renewables capacity in the country surged substantially over 2018 when 1245 MW was added, of which 826MW was contributed by the solar sector, according to Fitch Solutions.

Non-Hydro Renewables in Pakistan. Source: Fitch Solutions

Pakistan’s Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) recently signed deals for projects that will see the country expand its wind power capacity by 560 MW.  Fitch Solutions forecasts Pakistan's solar capacity to grow by an annual average of 9.4% between 2019-2028, taking total capacity over 3.8GW by the end of our forecast period.

Sindh government has recently signed a deal for 400MW solar park at Manjhand, 20MW rooftop solar systems on public sector buildings in Karachi and Hyderabad, and 200,000 solar home systems for remote areas in 10 districts of the province. The project is estimated to cost USD105million, with the World Bank funding USD100 million.

The biggest and most important source of low-carbon energy in Pakistan is its hydroelectric power plants. Pakistan ranked third in the world by adding nearly 2,500 MW of hydropower in 2018, according to Hydropower Status Report 2019.  China added the most capacity with the installation of 8,540 megawatts, followed by Brazil (3,866 MW), Pakistan (2,487 MW), Turkey (1,085 MW), Angola (668 MW), Tajikistan (605 MW), Ecuador (556 MW), India (535 MW), Norway (419 MW) and Canada (401 MW).

New Installed Hydroelectric Power Capacity in 2018. Source: Hydroworld.com

Hydropower now makes up about 28% of the total installed capacity of 33,836 MW as of February, 2019.   WAPDA reports contributing 25.63 billion units of hydroelectricity to the national grid during the year, “despite the fact that water flows in 2018 remained historically low.” This contribution “greatly helped the country in meeting electricity needs and lowering the electricity tariff for the consumers.”

Electricity vs Fossil Fuel Demand Forecast. Source: Economist



Chinese BYD in Pakistan:

Multiple media reports suggest that China's BYD is about to enter Pakistan market following the announcement of Pakistan National EV Policy.   These reports indicate that Toyota, one of the largest automakers in Pakistan, has signed a deal with BYD to manufacture electric vehicles.

Other reports indicate that Pakistan's Rahmat Group is in talks with BYD to set up an electric vehicle plant at Nooriabad in Sindh province.

Minister for Science and Technology Fawad Chaudhry has claimed that in three years Pakistan will become the first country to manufacture electric buses, which will be driven by an electric motor and obtains energy from on-board batteries.

Summary: 

It appears that Pakistan is starting to get serious about joining the Clean Energy Revolution to deal with rising climate change concerns. The country has set targets for renewable energy growth and announced National Electric Vehicle Policy.  In recent years, Pakistan government has introduced a number of supportive policies, including feed-in tariffs and a net metering program to incentivize renewables. These have been fairly successful, and renewables capacity in the country surged substantially over 2018 when 1245 MW was added, of which 826MW was contributed by the solar sector, according to Fitch Solutions.  High-capacity battery pack costs have dropped nearly 40% since 2015, according to Wood Mackenzie data as reported by Wall Street Journal.  Cost reductions are expected to continue to only $8 to $14 per MW-hour by 2020, or about a penny per kW-hour. While production and use of renewable energy are growing, the electric vehicles in Pakistan have yet to find traction. Hopefully, the National EV policy will encourage production and adoption of electric vehicles in the country.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Pakistan Electric Vehicle Policy

Nuclear Power in Pakistan

Recurring Cycles of Drought and Floods in Pakistan

Pakistan's Response to Climate Change

Massive Oil and Gas Discovery in Pakistan: Hype vs Reality

Renewable Energy for Pakistan

Digital BRI: China and Pakistan Building Fiber, 5G Networks

LNG Imports in Pakistan

Growing Water Scarcity in Pakistan

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Ownership of Appliances and Vehicles in Pakistan

CPEC Transforming Pakistan

Pakistan's $20 Billion Tourism Industry Boom

Riaz Haq's YouTube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

20 comments:

Zaffar HM said...

According to friend working at BYD the Chinese have agreed for transfer of technology along with export production out of Sindh and/or Balochistan. Many anicllary units have already been mobilised to scout lands before official announcements are made.

However the point is the recent oil discovery you informed us recently. If that oil is coming in very soon, how can we manage the contradictions between these two.

Riaz Haq said...

Zaffar: " If that oil is coming in very soon, how can we manage the contradictions between these two."

There is no contradiction. Pakistan will need oil and gas for bulk of its energy needs for many years. Clean energy revolution will not happen in a few days or weeks. It will take years.

Riaz Haq said...

IFC invests $450m in #Pakistan’s 6 #windfarms in Jhimpir wind corridor in #Sindh to generate more than 1,000 gigawatt-hours of electricity annually, enough to power 450,000 homes. Expected emission reductions of 650,000 tons of CO2 per year. #renewables https://www.esi-africa.com/industry-sectors/finance-and-policy/ifc-invests-450m-in-pakistans-six-wind-power-projects/

All Super Six projects are being developed by domestic companies: ACT Group, Artistic Milliners (Private) Limited, Din Group, Gul Ahmed Group and Younus Brothers Group.

“The government is aiming to increase the non-hydro renewable energy share in the overall generation mix from 4 to 20% by 2025 and it is welcoming to see Pakistan’s local private sector behind these Super Six wind projects, supporting the government’s long-term objective to see more wind and solar in the country’s energy mix,” said Ayub.

“This additional clean power will help meet growing demand, reduce the average cost of electricity, and improve both reliability and security of supply,” IFC’s Vice President for Asia and Pacific, Nena Stoiljkovic said. “We hope this will send a strong signal to the private sector that the renewable energy market in Pakistan is viable and sustainable, as well as beneficial to the Pakistani people.”

As part of the programme, IFC is providing a financing package of $320 million, comprising $86 million from its own account and $234 million mobilised from other lenders, which include Deutsche Investitions- und Entwicklungsgesellschaft (DEG, part of KfW Group of Germany), and local banks Bank Alfalah, Bank Al Habib and Meezan Bank.

The programme is in line with the joint energy strategy of the World Bank Group, which includes IFC, the World Bank and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), to help address Pakistan’s structural issues in the energy sector, through policy reforms and increases in private investments to expand clean energy generation and bring down the cost of power.

The cost of power from the Super Six projects is expected to be more than 40% lower than the current average cost of generation, a move that is expected to spur more investments in renewable energy in the country.

IFC, one of the largest investors in Pakistan’s power sector, financed the first wind power project in the country in 2011 and helped created the framework for financing hydro and wind Independent Power Producers. With this programme, IFC will have made investments in 11 wind power projects in Pakistan.

The World Bank is supporting the government on policy reforms to enhance the energy sector’s sustainability and the implementation of the upcoming new renewable energy policy framework.

Riaz Haq said...

Estimated number of premature pollution-related deaths per year:

🇮🇳India: 2.33m
🇨🇳China: 1.87m
🇳🇬Nigeria: 279K
🇮🇩Indonesia: 232K
🇵🇰Pakistan: 223K
🇧🇩Bangladesh: 207K
🇺🇸United States: 196K
🇷🇺Russia: 118K
🇪🇹Ethiopia: 110K
🇧🇷Brazil: 109K

(Global Alliance On Health And Pollution)

Riaz Haq said...

Rickshaw maker Sazgar Unveils #Pakistan’s First Locally Manufactured #ElectricVehicle. It will be powered by a 48V, 160Ah, 7.7kwh battery paired with a 3kw motor that will give it a range of 170KM with the weight included.
https://propakistani.pk/2020/01/24/sazgar-unveils-pakistans-first-locally-manufactured-electric-vehicle/

Yesterday, Sazgar Engineering Works Limited announced that they would be unveiling their indigenously manufactured Electric Powered Three-Wheeler.

In a glitzy ceremony attended by government officials, members of the social and business community, the company has launched the much-awaited three-wheeler.

The company has vowed to make the vehicle commercially available after the National Electric Vehicle Policy is implemented by the government. The company, during the launch, said that the vehicle would create employment opportunities in the auto sector and help in its development.

The three-wheeler is being manufactured locally and this will help in saving foreign exchange, help curb the oil import bill and reduce environmental pollution.

Apart from the electric kit, the rest of the three-wheeler is set to be produced locally which will help boost the economy. While some of the details are still scarce, the company has said that it will be powered by a 48V, 160Ah, 7.7kwh battery paired with a 3kw motor that will give it a range of 170KM with the weight included.

It will take almost 5 hours to charge and, according to some estimates, it will save Rs. 250,000 in terms of fuel and Rs. 30,000 in terms of maintenance each year.

Riaz Haq said...

FAO DG to visit #Pakistan this week. #FAO’s work globally and in Pakistan focusing on Zero hunger and Food Security issues related to climate change. #food #hunger #ClimateChange https://nation.com.pk/13-Feb-2020/fao-dg-to-visit-pakistan-this-week

The Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Qu Dongyu will be arriving in Pakistan on a three-day state visit on Friday as part of his vision to further strengthen the years’ long extraordinary collaboration of the country and FAO. During his visit, the Director General, FAO will call on the Prime Minister of Pakistan besides meeting with Federal Minister of Food Security and Research and other high-level officials, representatives from the private sector, youth representatives, academia, civil society and resource partners to apprise them of FAO’s work globally and in Pakistan, focusing on Zero hunger and Food Security in the context of the global climate change scenario. The Director-General will also travel to rural Punjab to meet with small-holder farmers who are most at risk from natural disasters, the UN information center said.


Qu Dongyu, a former Vice Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, elected as FAO Director-General in June 2019, has stressed the crucial role that FAO, which has 194 member states, can play in addressing key global challenges and accelerate progress towards achieving Sustainable Development Goals for all.

The priority challenges requiring urgent attention remain; the increasing rates of hunger and malnutrition, climate change-related risks to agriculture, ongoing natural resource depletion and environmental pollution and the growing spread of trans-boundary animal and plant pests and diseases.

Riaz Haq said...

#China's Goldwind books 50-MW #WindEnergy turbines order in Jhimpir, #Sindh, #Pakistan in an area identified as a “wind corridor” with 1000 MW of wind power capacity installed. Golwind expects to install 150 MW of turbines in Pak in coming years #renewable https://www.renewablesnow.com/news/goldwind-books-50-mw-turbine-order-in-pakistan-701129/

China’s Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd (HKG:2208) said it has recently received an order to supply 50 MW of turbines for the ACTII wind project in Pakistan.

Goldwind is set to deliver 20 units of GW 121-2.5MW high temperature model turbines to local wind project developer ACT Wind (Pvt) Ltd, the Chinese manufacturer said.

The ACTII project is sited in Jhimpir, Sindh province, in the area identified as a “wind corridor” and with around 1 GW of wind power capacity installed, according to Goldwind.

ACT Wind is the Chinese company's repeat customer, after previously purchasing Goldwind turbines for the first ACT wind project. The 30-MW ACT wind farm has been operating for about four years.

Goldwind expects to install 150 MW of turbines in Pakistan over the coming years and bring its total installed capacity in the country to 477 MW.

In November 2019, Goldwind signed a contract with Power Construction Corporation of China Ltd (SHA:601669), also known as PowerChina, to equip the 50-MW Gul Ahmed wind project in Pakistan. It has also secured the contract for the Artistic II wind farm project in the country, the company said.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan aims to generate 30% of its #electricity from #RenewableEnergy sources by 2030, including #wind, #solar, #biomass and small-scale #hydro https://tribune.com.pk/story/2250399/1-pakistan-aims-generate-30-clean-energy-2030/

Pakistan aims to generate 30% of its electricity from renewable energy sources by 2030 such as wind, solar, biomass and small-scale hydro.

This will complement the 27% of current electricity supply coming from large-scale hydro.

To this effect the 271 GE Renewable Energy wind turbines spreading over nine plants have a combined generating capacity of 450 megawatts (MW) – representing more than 36% of the current 1,235-MW total installed wind capacity in the country.
“Renewable energy is the future. With global warming happening, it’s good to say you’re working in the renewables business,” said GE Renewable Energy Services Manager Fawwad Haq.

“We are producing clean energy but not CO2 at these plants, so we’re giving people a better, cleaner type of energy,” he added.

Fawwad manages more than 50 wind turbine technicians who perform maintenance on hundreds of turbines at nine wind farms in the country.

A total of 233 direct and indirect employees help manage operations at eight of these plants.



Most of the wind farms that GE maintains and operates in Pakistan are located in desert regions where temperatures in early June were already in the 40s.

It takes nearly 15 minutes, with necessary water breaks along the way, to climb the 80-meter tall metal towers to reach the top of the wind turbines.

While GE provides wind turbine maintenance across all nine wind farms in Pakistan using GE turbine technology, at eight of them, the company also provides balance of plant services, including power generation and electricity dispatch to the grid.

“After I did my first climb [a couple years ago], I thought, ‘Oh, this is difficult!’ But after a few times, I adjusted to it and now it’s fine,” recalls Fawwad, adding, “The way things are going, renewables will capture a larger share of energy generation in the years to come, not only Pakistan, but in the rest of the world as well.”

He said during his working experience at conventional power generation was quite different as there were separate specialist technicians for mechanical, electrical and instrumentation work. “That’s not the case with wind turbines.”

“Only one team goes up and must be an electrical and mechanical all in one. You need to perform the preventative maintenance and troubleshooting.”

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan has recently re-entered into some important hydropower project deals with Chinese companies.

https://thewire.in/south-asia/pakistan-china-hydropower-projects-cpec-debts


On May 13, 2020, Pakistan signed a deal worth 442 billion Pakistani Rupees (USD 2.64 billion) with the Chinese state-run firm China Power for building the 272 meters high DBD. The total financial outlay of the DBD is PKR 1,406 .5 billion (USD 8.3 billion). This project is on the river Indus in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) – which India claims is illegally occupied territory – and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It is likely to be completed by 2028.

Earlier, it was a part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project but the tough conditions, particularly regarding the transfer of ownership, were unacceptable and not “doable” for Pakistan. Afterwards, the Pakistani government tried to raise money for the DBD along with the Mohmand dam through crowdfunding. However, Pakistan then re-entered into a deal with the Chinese firm.

Under the new terms of the deal, China Power will hold 70% of the share while the remaining 30% will be with Frontier Works Organisation – a commercial arm of the Armed Forces of Pakistan. The DBD’s construction is expected to create about 16,500 jobs. Once in operation, it will irrigate around 1.23 million acres of agriculture land and generate 18.1 billion units of electricity annually.


The second project the Chinese are constructing in Pakistan is at Kohala. It was listed under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor since August 2014. The Kohala project is on the Jhelum river on the Pakistani-administered side of Kashmir which India claims is illegally occupied territory since 1947-48. This 1,124-Megawatt project was to be developed by the Kohala Hydropower Company Private Limited. Disputes over this project took place in 2019 between Pakistan and China, which they tried to resolve but the Chinese firm refused to accept the dispute resolution plan approved by the government of Pakistan.

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On June 25, 2020, a “tripartite” agreement for implementing the Kohala project was signed between the China Three Gorges Corporation, the government of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Private Power and Infrastructure Board. The project is likely to cost USD 2.4 billion. International Finance Corporation and Silk Road Fund are also sponsors of this project.

The third hydropower project agreed upon between Pakistan and China was in July 2020 and is at Azad Pattan. It is located on the River Jhelum near the village of Muslimabad in the district of Sudhnoti, in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). This will be carried out by the Power Universal Company Limited which is owned and controlled by the China Gezhouba group.


The Indus at the site of the proposed Diamer-Basha dam. Photo: Water and Power Development Authority, Pakistan

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For the government of Pakistan, both the Kohala and the Azad Pattan projects are likely to bring about USD 4 billion in the form of investments, produce around 1800 MW of hydel power and create 8,000 jobs.

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One of the major reasons Pakistan is entering into such a deal is to use the available water efficiently, as the country is experiencing water shortage and its yearly water availability is now less than 1000 cubic meters per person. Through dams, it is trying to manage its water resources, mainly for agricultural purpose on which the country’s economy depends.

Second, Pakistan faces a shortage of electricity. In 2019, the transmission and distribution capacity of Pakistan was stalled at approximately 22,000 MW while the maximum demand from the residential and industrial areas was about 25,000 MW. This implied a deficit of 3000 MW. Hydroelectricity will add to the total electricity generated and will help in reducing the supply-demand deficit.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan State Oil (PSO) starts Euro V #vehicle #fuel distribution. It reduces sulphur by 98% & benzene by 80%. This will help reduce environmental #pollution and improve public #health.
| The Express Tribune https://tribune.com.pk//story/2260143/euro-v-fuel-to-help-reduce-pollution-in-pakistan

Prime Minister Imran Khan is keen on addressing the challenges related to climate change and the introduction of Euro-V standard fuel in a short span of time shows the government’s commitment to reduce air pollution for a clean environment, said Petroleum Minister Omar Ayub Khan.

At an event organised by Pakistan State Oil (PSO) to mark the upgrading of Pakistan’s fuel standard to Euro-V, the minister termed it the need of the hour to adopt upgraded fuel standards that would reduce the negative impact on environment and help the country move towards a sustainable future.

“Improvement in fuel quality will ultimately benefit the consumer and help create a cleaner environment with reduced pollution,” he said.

Special Assistant to Prime Minister on Petroleum Nadeem Babar, who was also present at the ceremony, stressed that Pakistan was heading in the right direction after having taken key steps to overcome the challenges posed by climate change.

“Upgrading fuel standards is a major step towards a cleaner and greener Pakistan,” he said. “We owe it to our future generations to bequeath to them a planet worth living in.”

Expressing his views, PSO CEO and Managing Director Syed Muhammad Taha said the new product range brought Pakistan’s fuel on a par with international standard fuels.

He added that the Euro-V standard fuels significantly reduced emissions and contributed to a healthy environment for future generations.

Euro-V standard fuels minimise the negative impact on environment owing to reduction in sulphur and benzene content by a staggering 98% and 80% respectively. This, in turn, reduces harmful vehicle emissions, resulting in health benefits and improvement in engine performance.

The reduction in benzene content will significantly improve the occupational health of industry workers, who are involved in product handling.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan Pursues Big Action On #ClimateChange. Along with #trees planting, #PTI govt announced a new #ElectricVehicle policy this summer, and plans to get two-thirds of its #electricity from #renewable sources like #wind, #solar and #hydropower by 2030. https://www.npr.org/2020/09/29/916878679/with-glaciers-melting-and-temps-soaring-pakistan-pursues-big-action-on-climate-c?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social

On her first foray into tree planting, Laiba Atika forgot a key item — a shovel, which her mom later fetched.

But the 17-year-old is clear about why she is leading volunteers in the northern Pakistani city of Mardan to plant dozens of pine trees in a scrubby park.

"It's our duty as citizens," she says in formal English, "to implement actions that can make planet a better place to live in."

Atika's tree-planting drive is being replicated all over Pakistan, where the government aims to plant ten billion trees over five years with the help of local communities. The reforestation initiative is central to a wide-ranging plan the Pakistani government recently adopted to change practices and cut emissions that drive climate change.

Like most developing nations, Pakistan is not a big emitter of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. But developing countries suffer harm disproportionate to their historically low emissions. Climate-fueled extreme weather events, from floods to droughts, could displace or kill tens of thousands of people, straining government resources and threatening political stability.

That urgency has prompted some nations, such as Pakistan, to craft ambitious plans to reduce emissions, even as the world's second largest emitter, the United States, shrugs off serious climate action.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan "knows the implications of climate change and is willing to take the lead in putting Pakistan on a green trajectory," says Malik Amin Aslam, a senior climate change advisor to Khan and the leading proponent of the new policies.

Alongside tree planting, the government announced a new electric vehicle policy this summer, and plans to get two-thirds of its electricity from wind, solar and hydropower by 2030. "That is a genuine step up in ambition for renewable energy," said Simon Nicholas, an energy finance analyst who follows Pakistan at the U.S.-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

But the problems that have long hobbled Pakistan threaten its new climate goals, too, environmental activists say. Plans are undermined by corruption and lax implementation, according to Afia Salam, an activist in Karachi. Environmentalists point to other ambitious policies the government announced since it took power, like a ban on plastic bags in Islamabad, which has gone widely ignored.

Khan's own broad-tent party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, includes powerful business interests that have carved out loopholes for themselves from the climate policies.

"What Pakistan has done, despite resource constraint, is aspirational for many countries," Salam says. But, she adds, "there's so many conflicting interests within the party itself."

The world's fifth most populous country, Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable to global warming. Already, summer temperatures in its southern cities often surpass 120 degrees. Rainfall has grown more erratic, and in August, unprecedented monsoon rains drowned parts of Pakistan's largest city, Karachi, turning roads into rivers and killing dozens of people across the country.

Northern glaciers nestled in mountains are the country's main water source, and they are melting faster than ever. Highland communities now face occasional water shortages and flash flooding that sweeps away their lands. If the growth of global greenhouse gas emissions continues on its present trajectory, the water supply for Pakistan's 220 million people will be imperiled within 50 years, scientists say.

Riaz Haq said...

My solar output went down 25% from 842 KWh in August to 635 in September.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45336&fbclid=IwAR38ywspRJFQLVU5Hwr0kWDsIJEpBxvVkCxna764NC87ggXKq_77EJrCpcI


In the first two weeks of September 2020, average solar-powered electricity generation in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which covers 90% of utility-scale solar capacity in California, declined nearly 30% from the July 2020 average as wildfires burned across the state. Wildfire smoke contains small, airborne particulate matter particles that are generally 2.5 micrometers or smaller (referred to as PM2.5). This matter reduces the amount of sunlight that reaches solar panels, decreasing solar-powered electricity generation. As of September 28, California wildfires have burned an estimated 3.6 million acres in 2020, an area about the size of Connecticut.

According to data from the California Air Resources Board, peak California PM2.5 pollution began increasing in mid-August and reached a record high of 659 micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m3) on September 15, the highest level since record keeping began in 2000. Peak PM2.5 pollution is measured as the daily average value at the testing site that has the

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan: Floating #solar panels paired with #hydroelectric dams. LUMS #Lahore researchers floated 200MW panels at 1.45 GW Ghazi Barotha Dam to model if 200 MW floating solar system could replace 1 of the 5 #hydropower units when water levels are low. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/10/05/floating-pv-paired-with-hydroelectric-dams-to-cover-peak-load/

Researchers from the Lahore University of Management Sciences in Pakistan have examined the potential to deploy floating PV on a body of water connected to one of the country's hydroelectric dams.

They published their findings in “Complementing hydroelectric power with floating solar PV for daytime peak electricity demand,” which was recently published in Renewable Energy.

Pakistan covers around 30% of its power demand with hydroelectric dams. Some of these facilities are of considerable size, like the Tarbela Dam, which reportedly has 3.5 GW of generating capacity. The University of Lahore scientists modeled the implementation of a floating array at the 1.45 GW Ghazi Barotha Dam, which features five generating units with around 290 MW of capacity each.

To cover daytime peak loads, installing a 200 MW floating system on the dam's reservoir could replace one of the five generating units if water levels are low. The researchers noted that Pakistan suffers frequent outages due to peak load hours during the day. The floating solar plant would work like a peaker plant, they said.


In terms of grid integration, the co-location of floating PV arrays with hydroelectric dams offers the chance to tap into existing infrastructure to cut costs. The scientists compared two approaches. In the first, they connected a floating PV system directly to a 500 kV transmission line system. In the other approach, they added a 132 kV sub-station.

They determined that the cost of connecting a solar PV array to the grid accounts for about 25% of total project costs. However, that shrinks considerably when such projects use the existing infrastructure of hydroelectric dams. With an additional 132 kV substation, the utilization rate can also be ramped up. The scientists suggested that a substation with import and export functions could distribute power more efficiently when a solar array is not generating at full load.

Riaz Haq said...

BREAKING DOWN EV MYTHS IN INDIA – WHAT HAVE WE LEARNT?
By Atul Mudaliar, Head of Business Actions, Climate Group


https://www.theclimategroup.org/news/breaking-down-ev-myths-india-what-have-we-learnt

Myth

Fact

Written by

CHARGING

We need a dense public fast-charging network

From global examples, regular home or destination slow Alternating Current (AC) charging infrastructure should suffice for most uses (70-80%). Direct Current or DC fast charging would be required only in cases of highway charging or commercial charging where vehicle utilization is high, and vehicle idle time is low.

By Maxson Lewis, Managing Director, Magenta Power – ChargeGrid



TECHNOLOGY

EVs are slow and have limited range

Electric cars and high-speed electric two-wheelers have advanced high-performance ‘powertrains’. These vehicle systems can offer better acceleration in comparison to Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) powertrains and allow comfortable speeds for intra-city driving.



From a sample size of 85 e-2-wheeler models and 5 e-car models on the Indian market today, average range was 84 Kilometers (kms) and 300km per charge respectively, which is more than enough for day-to-day use.

By Jyoti Gulia, Director – JMK Research and Analytics

ECONOMICS

Electric vehicles are more expensive than ICE vehicles

When comparing the upfront cost, fuel costs and maintenance costs, we find that running EVs for more kms/day results in substantial fuel cost savings over ICE vehicles, making EVs much cheaper over their lifetimes.

Co-authored by Falgun Patel, The Climate Group and Nishant Saini, Founder & Managing Director – eeeTaxi

POLICY

There is no government support for electric vehicles in India

In India, governments (Central and State) have consistently promoted manufacturing and adoption of EVs. Capital subsidies on purchase of EVs under Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles II (FAME II), Goods & Services Tax (GST) on EVs has been reduced from 12% to 5%, an income tax deduction of INR 1,50,000+ can be claimed on the interest paid on loans taken for EVs.

By Charu Lata, Lead Consultant – Electric Mobility, NRDC India

VEHICLE EXPERIENCE & SHARED MOBILITY

EVs give unsatisfactory vehicle experiences



Electrified shared mobility could lead to range anxiety

Today’s new-age electric vehicles are adequately powered and can achieve speeds like ICE vehicles. The EV transition has allowed automakers to integrate technology like Artificial Intellegence and IoT, thereby enhancing user experience.



Shared e-mobility is an essential solution to solve congestion in cities. The average daily run of a vehicle in a city is much lower than the corresponding average EV range. With tech-enabled shared e-mobility infrastructure, the user is always aware of the estimated remaining range and nearest charging/battery-swapping station, making range anxiety a non-issue.

By Vinay Rotti, Head – Policy & Strategic Finance at Bounce and Pradeep Karuturi, Policy and Government Partnerships at Bounce

EMISSIONS

Charging EVs with India's electricity grid is worse than driving ICE vehicles

Transport and Environment finds that EVs manufactured and charged with Poland's electricity reduce CO2 emissions by ~29% compared to average of petrol and diesel CO2 emissions. India, in fact, has a slightly better grid emission factor than Poland, which means EVs already reduce emissions.

By Abhishek Ranjan – Energy and Electric Mobility Industry Expert in India

WHAT NEXT?
It is necessary for a myth to be proven right or wrong for it to emerge as a fact. Like many transitions witnessed in the technology domain, EV myths in India too will have to traverse this journey to see where we are now and find integrated and innovative ways to move forward. However, we now know that they are naturally conquerable, and will change over time.

Riaz Haq said...

EVs: Light it up. I am quoted in this Business Recorder article on #ElectricVehicles in #Pakistan written by @SattarHuma https://www.brecorder.com/news/40028733 Riaz Haq argues that EV assembly is not difficult: “EVs have fewer parts than fossil fuel vehicles. They should be cheaper and easier for EV-makers to assemble and for EV-users to maintain [once bought]. The best option for Pakistan is to do joint ventures with Chinese companies that have substantial expertise in EV technology to leapfrog the entire process”.

Riaz Haq said...

The changing geopolitics of energy
America’s domination of oil and gas will not cow China
Being an importer of fossil fuels and an exporter of renewable technology is not so bad

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/17/americas-domination-of-oil-and-gas-will-not-cow-china


“The united states of america is now the number-one energy superpower anywhere in the world,” President Donald Trump told oilmen in Midland, Texas this summer, from a stage decorated with gleaming black barrels. The sheer volume of hydrocarbons that such American oilmen have released from the shale beneath Midland and previously unforthcoming geology elsewhere gives substance to his boast (see chart 1). Over the past decade America’s oil output has more than doubled and its gas production increased by over 50%. America is now the world’s top producer of both fuels.


Had they heard Mr Trump say that “We will never again be reliant on hostile foreign suppliers,” presidents from Franklin Roosevelt on might have nodded in envious approval. After the second world war America’s unmatched ability to consume oil outstripped its unmatched ability to produce it. Ensuring supplies from elsewhere became an overriding priority. The oil shock of the 1970s had a profound effect both on the economy and on geopolitics, driving much of America’s subsequent involvement in the Middle East. The surge in domestic supply in the 2010s both boosted the economy and opened up new geopolitical opportunities. America can apply sanctions to petrostates such as Iran, Venezuela and Russia with relative impunity.

But what it might mean to be an energy superpower is changing, thanks to three linked global shifts. First, fears about fossil-fuel scarcity have given way to an acknowledgment of their abundance. Not least because of what has been achieved in America, the energy industry now knows that it will be lack of demand, not lack of supply, which will cause production of oil, coal and, later, gas to dwindle. In its latest “World Energy Outlook”, published on September 14th, bp, an oil company which has recently said it plans to go carbon neutral, argues that demand for oil may already have peaked, and could go into steep decline (see chart 2 ).


This is because of the second shift: an acknowledgment by most countries that, for the sake of the climate, reliance on fossil fuels needs to come to an end. And that leads to the third shift: electrification. Fossil fuels provide heat that is mostly used to move things, be they vehicles or electric generators. Solar panels and wind turbines provide energy as electricity straight off. Maximising their emissions-free benefits means processes and devices that now rely on combustion must in future use currents and batteries instead. The bp analysis argues that in a world going all out for decarbonisation the share of energy used in the form of electricity would rise from about a fifth in 2018 to just over half in 2050.

Falling demand for fossil fuels will tilt the balance of power away from producers and towards consumers—though there will doubtless be reversals now and then along the way. And in a world which needs to generate much more fossil-free electricity, mass production of the means whereby to do so will become crucial, as will government backing and know-how in deployment. Being a mighty pumper of oil will do a lot less for America under such conditions than once it might have done. But China, the world’s biggest fossil-fuel importer as well as its leading exponent of renewable energy at gigawatt scales, will have the wind, as it were, at its back.

Riaz Haq said...

Energy Minister Omar Ayub Khan has said that the government has planned to transform the outlook of the energy market under the new Alternative Renewable Energy Policy.


https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2020/11/06/govt-plans-to-transform-outlook-of-energy-market-minister/

The minister said this while talking to Ambassador of Denmark to Pakistan Lis Rosenholm on Friday. Tabish Gauhar, Special Assistant to Prime Minister on Power, was also present on the occasion.

During the meeting, the outlook of the emerging market of the sector and business opportunities in view of the newly approved Alternative Energy Policy were discussed.

Acknowledging the lead role of Denmark in clean and green energy at global level, the minister said that Pakistan too is embarked upon tapping the huge indigenous potential of renewable energy. He said that Pakistan’s New Renewable Energy Policy would bring opportunities for investors due to transparent policies of the incumbent government.

He said that the government had set ambitious targets to introduce 25pc renewable energy by 2025, and 30pc by end of 2030, including 45pc share of hydel power generation and 10pc of nuclear energy into the energy mix of the country.

While explaining the investment potential in the power sector, the minister said that the government would induct renewable energy-based power plants through open and transparent competitive bidding process, which would lower the cost of production of electricity.

He also apprised the envoy that the government had prepared the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2047 for competitive market structure, generation, up-gradation of transmission, Smart AMI and modernization of distribution system.

The minister further informed that lowering of electricity cost for industries and establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) would boost economic activity besides creating thousands of new jobs in the country.

The Danish ambassador, while appreciating the government’s commitment to raise the share of renewable clean and green energy, said that the new policy is more transparent as it provides a level playing field for all. She suggested setting up a joint energy platform to study the market, so that Danish companies would closely follow developments in the field of renewable energy and they could participate in the competitive process of renewable energy projects.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan can save $5bn by scaling up renewable energy: WB - Profit by Pakistan Today

https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2020/11/10/pakistan-can-save-5bn-by-scaling-up-renewable-energy-wb/

The study, titled Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) Integration and Planning, finds that Pakistan needs to urgently implement a major expansion of solar and wind “variable renewable energy”, to achieve a share of at least 30per cent of total capacity by 2030. This would help lower the cost of power, achieve greater energy security, and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

“A large and sustained expansion of solar photovoltaic and wind power, alongside hydropower and substantial investments in the grid, is both achievable and desirable”, World Bank Country Director for Pakistan Najy Benhassine said.

“Such an initiative would lead to immediate and long-term economic and environmental benefits. It would enhance the security of supply as well as positioning Pakistan at the forefront of the global energy transition. We stand ready to support Pakistan in achieving the goal of affordable, reliable power for all by 2030,” he added.

According to the study, many sources of fossil fuel generation are no longer competitive and should be retired or their use significantly reduced. This includes domestic and imported coal, which is not economical over the next 10 years compared to VRE and has the additional downsides of GHG emissions, air pollution, and use of scarce water resources.

The study, based on an hour-by-hour analysis of all generation options, finds that a substantial and immediate scaling up of VRE capacity represents a “least-cost” strategy for expanding capacity in Pakistan, including consideration of the costs of integrating the variable supply from solar and wind.

Riaz Haq said...

China’s push into electric vehicles began just over a decade ago, spearheaded by a former engineer for Audi named Wan Gang. While more than 30 billion yuan ($4.54 billion) in subsidies attracted many worthless start-ups, a handful survived. Nio listed in New York in 2018 and has climbed more than 340% since. Li Auto and Xpeng went public in the U.S. this year and their shares are up more than 65% and 35%, respectively.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/23/chinas-electric-car-strategys-implications-for-us-energy-security.html

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While California-based Tesla captured popular attention for electric cars, national policy in Beijing encouraged the launch of several rivals in China, the world’s largest auto market.
“Over the next five years we anticipate Chinese players across the EV supply chain to aggressively enter the overseas market,” UBS analysts wrote in a note Wednesday.
Once a fringe item in a global energy market centered on oil, electric vehicles are part of a potential new ecosystem that includes self-driving cars and ride-hailing, says Daniel Yergin, vice chairman at IHS Markit.

Riaz Haq said...

China’s push into electric vehicles began just over a decade ago, spearheaded by a former engineer for Audi named Wan Gang. While more than 30 billion yuan ($4.54 billion) in subsidies attracted many worthless start-ups, a handful survived. Nio listed in New York in 2018 and has climbed more than 340% since. Li Auto and Xpeng went public in the U.S. this year and their shares are up more than 65% and 35%, respectively.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/23/chinas-electric-car-strategys-implications-for-us-energy-security.html

-------------
While California-based Tesla captured popular attention for electric cars, national policy in Beijing encouraged the launch of several rivals in China, the world’s largest auto market.
“Over the next five years we anticipate Chinese players across the EV supply chain to aggressively enter the overseas market,” UBS analysts wrote in a note Wednesday.
Once a fringe item in a global energy market centered on oil, electric vehicles are part of a potential new ecosystem that includes self-driving cars and ride-hailing, says Daniel Yergin, vice chairman at IHS Markit.