Flood-Drought Cycles:
Before the summer floods of 2010, the Indus had turned into a muddy puddle in parts of Sindh. Britain's Financial Times reported at the the time that "angry farmers marched through villages in Sindh demanding access to water. Those who can no longer turn a profit in the fields are increasingly resorting to banditry or migrating to urban shanties".
Earlier, there was a 2009 report by the Woodrow Wilson International Center saying that the melting Himalayan glaciers have exacerbated Pakistan’s shortages. And the World Bank warned that Pakistan could face a “terrifying” 30-40 per cent drop in river flows in 100 year’s time. Now large parts of Sindh are under water for the second year in a row, destroying lives and standing crops.
Growing Water Scarcity:
According to the United Nations' World Water Development Report, the total actual renewable water resources in Pakistan decreased from 2,961 cubic meters per capita in 2000 to 1,420 cubic meters in 2005. A more recent study indicates an available supply of water of little more than 1,000 cubic meters per person, which puts Pakistan in the category of a high stress country. Using data from the Pakistan's federal government's Planning and Development Division, the overall water availability has decreased from 1,299 cubic meters per capita in 1996-97 to 1,101 cubic meters in 2004-05. In view of growing population, urbanization and increased industrialization, the situation is likely to get worse. If the current trends continue, it could go as lows as 550-cubic meters by 2025. Nevertheless, excessive mining of groundwater goes on. Despite a lowering water table, the annual growth rate of electric tubewells has been 6.7% and for diesel tubewells about 7.4%. In addition, increasing pollution and saltwater intrusion threaten the country's water resources. About 36% of the groundwater is classified as highly saline.
So what can Pakistan do to manage these disastrous cycles of floods and droughts?
1. Build Dams and Dykes:
As the flood disaster takes its toll yet again, there are reports of USAID and ADB considering funding the $12 billion Bhasha Dam in Pakistan. The project is located on Indus River, about 200 miles upstream of the existing Tarbela Dam, 100 miles downstream from the Northern Area capital Gilgit in Gilgit-Baltistan region. The dam's reservoir would hold so much water that it could have averted last year's devastating floods. It would also provide enough electricity to end Pakistan's crippling shortages, according to a report in the Guardian newspaper. The massive dam on the Indus river would provide 4,500MW of renewable energy, making up for a shortfall causing up to 12 hours of load shedding on daily basis across Pakistan. The reservoir would be 50 miles long, holding 8.5 MAF (million acre feet) of water.
In addition to large dams, there is also a need to build and maintain dykes and start other flood-control projects in flood-prone areas like Badin and Thatta in Sindh.
2. Conserve Water:
Building Bhasha and several other proposed dams will help in dealing with water scarcity, but the growing population will continue put pressure on the vital resource.
Serious conservation steps need to be taken to improve the efficiency of water use in Pakistani agriculture which claims almost all of the available fresh water resources. A California study recently found that water use efficiency ranged from 60%-85% for surface irrigation to 70%-90% for sprinkler irrigation and 88%-90% for drip irrigation. Potential savings would be even higher if the technology switch were combined with more precise irrigation scheduling and a partial shift from lower-value, water-intensive crops to higher-value, more water-efficient crops. Rather than flood irrigation method currently used in Pakistani agriculture, there is a need to explore the use of drip or spray irrigation to make better use of nation's scarce water resources before it is too late. As a first step toward improving efficiency, Pakistan government launched in 2006 a US $1.3 billion drip irrigation program that could help reduce water waste over the next five years. Early results are encouraging. "We installed a model drip irrigation system here that was used to irrigate cotton and the experiment was highly successful. The cotton yield with drip irrigation ranged 1,520 kg to 1,680 kg per acre compared to 960 kg from the traditional flood irrigation method," according to Wajid Ishaq, a junior scientist at the Nuclear Institute for Agriculture and Biology(NIAB).
Beyond the government-funded experiments, there is a drip irrigation company called Micro Drip which is funded by the Acumen Fund. Micro Drip develops and provides products and services as poverty alleviation solutions to small farmers in Pakistan’s arid regions. It provides a complete drip irrigation system along with agricultural training and after-sales support to enable farmers to extract a higher yield from their land at a much lower cost of input.
So what is holding up Pakistan's progress on water management?
1. Lack of Funds:
Pakistani government revenues continue to be limited by slow economic growth and widespread culture of tax evasion. The biggest culprits are the ruling feudal politicians who oppose any attempt to levy taxes on their farm income. The limited resources the state does have are usually squandered on political patronage doled out to ruling politicians' supporters in the form of capricious grants, huge loans (defaulted with impunity), and plum jobs in bloated government and the money-losing state-owned enterprises. The result of this blatant abuse, waste and fraud is that the budget allocations for vital long-term investments in education, health care and infrastructure development projects are regularly slashed thereby shortchanging the future of the nation.
2. Corruption and Security Concerns:
The NY Times recently reported that "Washington’s fears of Pakistani corruption and incompetence has slowed disbursal of the money". The story reinforces the widely-held view that even after the funding is arranged, the corrupt and incompetent politicians and their hand-picked civilian administrators make any development progress slow and difficult. Such problems are further exacerbated by significant security issues in parts of the country severely plagued by ongoing militancy.
Existential Threat:
The Taliban who get all the coverage do not pose an existential threat to Pakistan. Generations of military families have periodically fought FATA insurgencies. For example, Shuja Nawaz, the author of Crossed Swords says that his grandfather, his uncle and his cousin have all been deployed in Waziristan by the British and later Pakistani governments in the last century and a half. American withdrawal from the region will eventually calm the situation in Waziristan, and the rest of the country.
Climate change and the growing water scarcity are the main long-term existential threats to Pakistan and the region. Water per capita is already down below 1000 cubic meters and declining
What Pakistan needs are major 1960s style investments for a second Green Revolution to avoid the specter of mass starvation and political upheaval it will bring.
Related Links:
Haq's Musings
Growing Water Scarcity in Pakistan
Political Patronage in Pakistan
Corrupt and Incompetent Politicians
Pakistan's Energy Crisis
Culture of Tax Evasion and Aid Dependence
Climate Change in South Asia
US Senate Report on Avoiding Water Wars in Central and South Asia
40 comments:
Surprised to see no India bashing ... a welcome change indeed.
Anon: "Surprised to see no India bashing ... a welcome change indeed."
India is playing its traditional role as a "villain" by objecting to US funding of the much-needed Bhasha dam in Pakistan, something I should have mentioned.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/08/16/v-print/120878/us-considers-funding-pakistani.html
How the f--- will a dam in Gilgit control floods in Sindh when it is the rains in Sindh that are causing the f----- havoc? The goal has to be to build diversion channels in Sindh to areas where water could be stored. There are such locations in low-lying Thar and parts of Sindh Right Bank. But since that water will only be available to Sindh, Pakistan's Punjabi government and news media will never propose that. Neither, unfortunately, do you.
Shams: "How the f--- will a dam in Gilgit control floods in Sindh when it is the rains in Sindh that are causing the f----- havoc? The goal has to be to build diversion channels in Sindh to areas where water could be stored."
The current floods due to monsoon rain in Sindh could not have been prevented by Bhasha dam, but last year's floods could have been by storing the water that deluged large parts of KPK, Punjab and Sindh.
Building diversion channels downstream and building dams upstream are not mutually exclusive. Both should be done to smooth out water flows and prevent cycles of flooding and droughts....and produce the much-needed electricity as well.
There are two reason for the floods in Badin this time, as follows:
1- Excessive rainfall, which you've addressed in your mail along with corrective measures.
2- Breaches in the Left Bank Outfall Drain (LBOD) which probably has a bigger impact. LBOD serves the purpose of draining waste water from lower Punjab and northern Sindh (the Seraiki areas) into the Arabian Sea. There is extensive pumping out of subsoil water to reduce salinity in the soil in these regions and all this water drains into the LBOD. Besides, being a drain canal in the originating areas, all surface drains including rainwater drain into LBOD. In southern Sindh the LBOD becomes a dyked canal with the sole purpose of carrying the run off water from the north into the sea. Over the years discharge through LBOD has increased while the dykes are weakened because of lack of maintenance, thus causing this present disaster. To redress this situation, LBOD needs to be expanded and strengthened. Similarly, there is an RBOD serving the same purpose on the other side of the Indus. There were no breaches in RBOD this time but can happen in future affecting Thatta and vicinity.
Last year's flooding in Sindh was much bigger than this year because the nearly 30 inches of rain in Sindh was added to by KPK and Punjab rain outflows, which caused the bursts in nearly all dykes. Last year, Tarbela Dam storage never reached more than 80 percent of its designed capacity and there were calls to blast the glaciers on K2 to get more water in.
Here's a Dawn report on how Pakistani scientists view the latest Sindh floods:
ISLAMABAD: A weather scientist on Friday blamed climate change for the unprecedented torrential monsoon rains in Sindh that have caused severe flooding in the 16 districts of Sindh province.
“If we look at the frequency and the trend of the extreme weather events impacting Pakistan then it is easy to find its linkage with climate change,” said Dr. Qamar uz Zaman Chaudhry Advisor, Climate Affairs in a statement here.
The pattern of recent extreme weather events in Pakistan show clear indication of increased frequency and intensity of such events in Pakistan which is in line with the international climate change projections, he added.
Dr Qamar, who is also the lead author and architect of the country’s first Draft National Climate Change Policy, said Pakistan is heading for increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, which includes frequent floods and droughts.
“We need to adapt and plan for that,” he said and added, the formulation of Draft National Climate Change Policy is the first step in this direction.
He said the rains in Sindh are the highest ever recorded monsoon rains during the four weeks period. Before the start of these rains in the second week of August, Sindh was under severe drought conditions and it had not received any rainfall for the last 12 months.
The last severe rainfall flooding in Sindh occurred in July 2003, he said and added, but this time the devastating rains of 1150 mm in Mithi, Mirpurkhas 676 mm, Diplo 779 mm, Chachro 735 mm, N. Parker 792 mm, Nawabshah 547 mm, Badin 512 mm, Chhor 456 mm, Padidan 381 mm Hyderabad 249 mm etc during the four weeks period have created unprecedented flood situation in Sindh.
According to Dr. Qamar, the total volume of water fallen over Sindh during the four weeks is estimated to be above 37 million acre feet, “which is unimaginable.”
He said that the rainfall was predicted well in advance by Met Office and the disaster management agencies were well prepared. “But the scale of this natural calamity combined with the topography of the area having very poor natural drainage. Most of water stagnates and breaches in LBOD and irrigation channels further complicated the scale of flooding.”
Dr. Qamar said that it was also forecast that in Pakistan climate change would be causing considerable increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coupled with erratic monsoon rains causing frequent floods and droughts, and increased temperature would result in enhanced heat and water stress conditions, particularly in the arid and semi-arid regions.
http://www.dawn.com/2011/09/11/climate-change-blamed-for-sindh-flooding-2.html
u know this could be one of US weather manipulation weapons being used to create unrest in PAkistan.
Too much of a coincidence two mega innundations in 2 years and NOTHING of the sort in next door India amreeka's new best buddy in Asia
For further details:
http://csat.au.af.mil/2025/volume3/vol3ch15.pdf
Scary stuff if they have anything near this capability!
Anon: "Too much of a coincidence two mega innundations in 2 years and NOTHING of the sort in next door India amreeka's new best buddy in Asia"
I guess you are unaware of the climate change crisis in India that is increasing rural poverty and driving thousands of farmers to suicide.
http://www.riazhaq.com/2009/12/climate-change-worsens-poverty-in-india.html
@anon..
US manipulates the weather ? If they could do that, they would have done so in China.
Here's an interesting excerpt from a report about Pakistan's power sector published in Miami Herald:
There is no place where the country's energy shortage isn't profound. Rural areas are without electricity for up to 16 hours a day while towns often go without for as many as 12 hours daily, forcing factories to close and plunging homes into darkness.
Natural gas supplies are rationed, with factories in the country's most populous province, Punjab, going without two days a week.
Pakistan's economic output is cut by at least 4 percent because of the shortages, the government estimates, something that hampers the country's hopes to battle extremism by creating more economic opportunities. The outages also feed political discontent, triggering frequent, if local, street protests.
Solving the energy problems is a top priority for the United States' aid program, with a State Department delegation here this week, led by Ambassador Carlos Pascual, the Obama administration's special envoy on international energy affairs.
But Pakistan's plans for a 1,700-mile natural gas pipeline from Iran, which would provide Pakistan with a cheaper source of fuel for electricity generation, is a stumbling block.
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Despite Pakistan's huge hydroelectric potential, it hasn't built a big dam project since the 1970s. Since the U.S.-backed government of President Asif Zardari was elected in 2008, a mushrooming chain of "circular" debt has enveloped the power sector.
The government has assumed $3.6 billion of the power industry's debt. The government-owned power grid owes another $2.5 billion to private-sector generators, even as the government, according to Finance Ministry figures, spent at least $7.4 billion on electricity subsidies during the 2008-2010 period.
Washington and international lenders such as the International Monetary Fund have repeatedly urged Pakistan to cut subsidies, which anemic government finances cannot afford.
Critics say that the government hasn't added to the electricity infrastructure in its three-and-a-half year term, while sinking billions of dollars into unproductive subsidies and taking on debt.
Of the $3.6 billion debt the government assumed, half were bills the government itself hadn't paid, said Ejaz Rafiq Qureshi, the spokesman of the Pakistan Electric Power Co., the state-owed national electricity grid. The rest is owed by private consumers.
At the end of August, a group of nine private power plants demanded that the government pay them within 30 days $540 million it owed for power generation.
Roughly half of Pakistan's current electricity output of 13,000 megawatts comes from the private generators. But there is more capacity that the government doesn't use. Government-owned equipment that could generate another 2,000 megawatts has been sidelined because of poor maintenance. Private equipment that could generate another 2,500 megawatts has been taken out of service because the government hasn't paid its bills, said Abdullah Yusuf, who represents the private producers. Combined, that amounts roughly to the entire immediate shortfall.
"If you had this capacity available, straight away your problem would be solved," said Yusuf.
A longer-term energy project is Pakistan's proposed $12 billion Diamer Basha dam, which would add 4,500 megawatts to Pakistan's electricity generating capacity. Washington is considering providing significant funding to the project. Separately, the U.S. Agency for International Development is currently working on projects that will add 900 megawatts to the Pakistani grid next year.
Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/09/16/2410787_p2/pakistan-search-for-energy-could.html#ixzz1YBKY4KxS
Here's a US State Dept blog post on US AID efforts for energy projects in Pakistan:
The United States and Pakistan reviewed progress on ongoing energy programs and recommitted themselves to pursuing practical solutions to Pakistan's energy needs during the latest Pakistan-United States Energy Dialogue this week. Ambassador Carlos Pascual, U.S. Department of State Special Envoy for International Energy Affairs, joined Pakistani Minister of Water and Power Naveed Qamar to reaffirm the partnership. They met September 14-15 in Islamabad.
"As all Pakistanis know, reliable and affordable energy is critical to Pakistan's prosperity. Without it, businesses can't operate and families can't light and cool their homes. Pakistan's future depends on power," Ambassador Pascual said at the opening of the Dialogue. "There are no quick fixes to this crisis, but the United States and international partners are willing to help. We will continue to support Pakistan in its efforts to resolve this energy crisis."
Ambassador Pascual reaffirmed the United States' long-term commitment to working with Pakistan to establish a commercially-viable and sustainable power sector. During the Dialogue, the U.S. and Pakistan reviewed ongoing cooperation in the energy sector. USAID highlighted its ongoing energy programs, which will bring more than 900 MW of power to the Pakistani grid by 2012. The programs include construction and rehabilitation of three hydropower plants (Satpara, Gomal Zam and Tarbela) and three thermal power plants (Guddu, Muzafargarh, and Jamshoro).
This extra energy will bring power to approximately 7 million people, eradicate 20 percent of Pakistan's existing power shortage, reduce annual oil imports by more than one million barrels and help store water for irrigation and flood control. The increases to the energy sector will also bring job opportunities for as many as 2.5 million heads of households.
The U.S. delegation welcomed Pakistan's plans, elaborated in the Integrated Energy Sector Recovery Report and Plan, to put the power sector on a commercially-viable and sustainable path. In the Dialogue, Pakistan underscored its commitment to strengthen energy sector governance and efficiency, pursue regulatory reforms, improve financial management, and create a business climate that helps drive investment.
Key topics of discussion at the energy dialogue included: an overview of the power sector and challenges it faces; the current policy and regulatory framework, and possible reforms; availability of primary fuels; the role of the private sector; and regional energy initiatives.
The U.S. underscored that these measures will help develop a stronger foundation for investment. Both sides agreed to continue technical exchanges in areas that can help improve power availability. The U.S. also welcomed Pakistan's continued engagement with international financial institutions and the private sector to assess feasibility of viable hydropower projects and appreciates its commitment to international environmental and societal standards, while also focusing on the importance of water management.
http://blogs.state.gov/index.php/site/entry/us_pakistan_energy_solutions
http://www.dawn.com/2011/09/17/pakistan-to-end-imf-programme.html
In Pakistan everybody is cutting trees from the forest areas for cooking and heat in cold season because there is no electricity most of the time. Outside of Islamabad area politicians are not doing anything because Taliban is cutting trees without permission to supply the poor people. I think we need trees to prevent flood.
Here's a Forbes story blaming drought as the main cause of an Indian farmer committing suicide every 30 minutes:
Bt cotton seeds are genetically modified to produce an insecticide that kills Bollworm, a common cotton pest in India. In 2002, the government of India allowed Monsanto to start selling Bt cotton to farmers in India. In the years since, Bt cotton has pervaded cotton farming in India.
As CHRGJ sees it, the problem is this:
Farmers take out loans to purchase the [Bt cotton] seeds, but when the crop fails due to lack of access to water, they often fall into debt. Many kill themselves by consuming the very pesticide they went into debt to purchase.
Bt cotton bears at least partially blame for these tragedies, according to CHRGJ, because it is more water intensive than other cotton seeds. The report cites studies showing that “Bt cotton performs better under irrigated conditions.”
In 2006, the Indian Institute of Management in Ahmedabad, India evaluated the performance of Bt cotton in India based on a survey of Bt cotton farmers and agricultural data. The final study concluded that the yields obtained with irrigation are typically higher than those without irrigation, but that:
in all cases, the yields of Bt cotton are higher than the yields of Non-Bt cotton . . . The results indicate a sizeable impact of Bt cotton on the yield and value of output under both irrigated and unirrigated conditions.
This finding is corroborated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Long-term Agricultural Projections for last year, which described the impact Bt cotton has had on cotton yields in India:
Improved cotton yields in India, largely due to the adoption of hybrid cotton containing the Bt gene, have raised India’s production and exports in recent years. Yield growth is projected to continue as the area planted to hybrid cotton expands and cultivation practices improve. The increase in cotton output is expected to enable India to increase domestic textile production and exports. Its export volume has already surpassed those of Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia, and it is expected to maintain this rank throughout the forecast period.
In any event, it should not come as a huge surprise to most cotton farmers that access to water is essential to crop performance. Cotton is an especially thirsty plant. It can take more than 25,000 liters of water to produce a single kilogram of cotton. To put this in perspective, it takes only 500 liters of water to produce a kilogram of potatoes.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2011/05/18/every-30-minutes-an-indian-farmer-commits-suicide-biotech-is-not-to-blame/2/
Here's an Express Tribune update on Neelum-Jhelum hydroelectric project:
ISLAMABAD: As Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) completes 28 per cent work on the 969MW Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project, the cost of which has gone up from Rs84 billion to Rs333 due to inordinate delay, Pakistan is pushing China to release the promised $500 million loan to bridge the shortfall of funds.
The cost of the project has increased after it was redesigned in the wake of the 2005 earthquake. Work on the project is progressing but the shortfall of funds and issues in land acquisition are still problems that need to be addressed to complete the project.
Wapda has also had to procure two Tunnel Boring Machines (TBMs) at the cost of Rs17 billion to overcome the delay of two and half years. “We will be able to reduce implementation time by two years by using TBMs that are expected to reach Karachi by January 25, 2012,” sources said.
Average completion level on the project is 28%. Some areas are progressing better, like the powerhouses, which are at 40% completion.
In the powerhouse, four turbines with a capacity of 242MW each will be set up. A separate plant of 45MW will also be set up at the diversion tunnel which was completed on October 15. A total of 60 kilometres of tunnels have to be completed including 35.6 kilometres of tunnels needed to push water to drive the turbines.
“As much as 17 kilometres have been completed,” sources said adding that work was underway on the coffer dam that is expected to be completed by February next year.
Sources said that a consortium of six banks including Exim Bank of China is providing financing for the project. “We are pushing Exim Bank of China to extend a $500 million loan to bridge the shortfall of funds,” sources said adding that other banks in the consortium were also being asked to extend additional $700 to $800 million loans.
The project cost has escalated on different accounts including Rs38 billion due as interest on loan, Rs45 billion on account of depreciation of rupee against dollar, from Rs45 to Rs86. Further cost increases were because of rate of land acquisition and procurement of two TBMs that cost Rs17 billion.
The government is to procure total 3,900 kanals of land out of which about 68 kanals is still outstanding, including the crucial portion of about 18 kanals for which payment of Rs1.2 billion has already been made to the AJK government.
“Despite payment, local people are reluctant to hand over land which may further delay the completion of the project,” sources added.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/302326/neelum-jhelum-project-pakistan-pushes-china-to-release-promised-500m/
Here's Express Tribune report on ADB financing of Bhasha dam:
Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have agreed to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for technical and financial cooperation in the construction of multi-billion-dollar Diamer-Bhasha Dam.
The MoU will be inked next week, said the Ministry of Water and Power after a meeting between Water and Power Minister Naveed Qamar and the Manila-based lending agency’s Director of Energy Wing Rune Stroem on Friday.
Stroem is leading a delegation to assess detailed engineering design of the dam, which will store 8.5 million acre feet of water for irrigation purposes and generate 4,500 megawatts of electricity.
The delegation, the first formal mission on Diamer-Bhasha Dam, will also review the cost component and consider options to make it a bankable project, as the ADB alone cannot finance the full cost estimated at $11.2 billion.
The government and the ADB also agreed to organise roadshows in three different countries with the assistance of international lenders, equipment suppliers and others concerned for seeking co-financiers for the project, said the water and power ministry.
An official of the Economic Affairs Division said the ADB has not yet formally conveyed the exact size of the loan but there are indications that the agency may extend up to $4.5 billion that will meet 40 per cent of financing needs.
After a refusal in 2008, the World Bank also recently expressed its willingness to finance the project, said the official. The US has also committed to financing the project under the Kerry-Lugar Act, but it also has not given the exact size of its share in the financing.
Stroem said the mission was giving highest priority to Diamer-Bhasha Dam and looking for its early execution. Praising the progress made so far on the project and the efforts to resolve related matters, he said the project would help improve socio-economic life of people and bring prosperity in the country.
Naveed Qamar said the ADB’s role as lead financier of the project would help attract other donors and sponsors to fund mega projects in Pakistan. He said the project would be a milestone for the country’s economy and meet water and power needs.
The government is attaching high priority to the project and has completed all formalities for its construction, hinting at its approval at the Council of Common Interests, the highest constitutional body on inter-provincial matters.
Qamar said most of the land for the project had been acquired and the resettlement package was being implemented. The ADB mission also discussed the energy efficiency programme and matters relating to other mega water and power projects being executed by the government with the cooperation of the bank.
Stroem said the bank was also considering various other projects for financial and technical assistance in the water and power sector.
Matters relating to power sector reforms and rehabilitation of electricity generation companies were also discussed. The mission was told that rehabilitation of power companies was under way, which would be completed at the earliest.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/304366/diamer-bhasha-dam-adb-agrees-to-provide-technical-financial-support/
ADB asks Pakistan to tie all loose ends to proceed with Bhasha dam construction, according to Daily Times:
The Asian Development Bank (ADB), the lead financer of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam on Tuesday suggested Pakistan to focus on resolution of revenue sharing issue between Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Gilgit Baltistan (GB) as well as affected population and address issues of environment degradation for smooth execution of the mega project.
ADB’s Head of Energy Division Rune Stroem while speaking to a select group of journalists along with the ADB’s Country Director to Pakistan Werner Liepach after conclusion of his visit to Pakistan aimed at ‘critically reviewing the mega project’. He said, “ADB is fully aware that there will be strong debate on revenue sharing and ADB can give advice but at the end the issue will have to be decided by the Council of Common Interests.” The KP government is disputing over the ownership of 18 kilometres long belt with GB government in a bid to get share in income from the power generation. The GB legislative assembly has passed the resolution against the provincial government claim and intends to take the matter to the Supreme Court if it is not amicably resolved.
“Pakistan has not been focusing on social aspects of the project as much as one could hope,” Stroem said and added that the success of the project hangs on local people satisfaction with resettlement activities. “The resettlement work has been done but still there are gaps where the government needs to bring in improvement as per international standards,” he added.
Explaining the gaps, Stroem said individual activities were going on at relatively small scale and lots of pilot projects have been initiated. He said the legal dispute over sharing of revenues between GB and KP has to be worked through and on environment no sufficient work has been done yet.
Stroem said there was a need to ensure minimum water flows during storage to offset negative impact on the environment. He said no water flows at the time of construction and storage will have adverse affects.
Having an estimated cost of $11.20 billion the project is planned to be completed in 12 years that will generate 4,500 megawatts (MW) electricity besides storing 8.5 million acres feet water for agriculture purposes. The project’s groundbreaking has been performed twice. The ADB official said that the agency has not yet fully assessed the price and completion period but the total cost may change due to price escalation.
Stroem said that an unwritten agreement has been reached with the government. According to that the ADB will play its role as senior lender, co-financer and will be the financial adviser to Pakistan on the project. He said next week both the parties will review the draft of the Memorandum of Understanding that clearly defines the role of the ADB in project execution.
He said the project can’t be donor-driven instead the government is the primary driver and it’s cognizant of the fact. The ADB was helping the government to structure the project and make it bankable. “It is the most complex and the most comprehensive project the ADB has ever financed.”
Liepach said that the ADB has not yet framed clear views on the dam financing requirements but the export credit will be major source of financing. Other than the export credit the international financial institutions and commercial financing would also be availed to complete the project, he added. Stroem said the Water and Power Development Authority will evaluate the bids for the project but the ADB will also review to ensure transparency. The ADB has strong anti-corruption policies and the agency’s involvement will give more credit to the project, he added.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011\12\14\story_14-12-2011_pg5_9
Here's Dr. Ataur Rahman's Op Ed in The News on building Pakistan's knowledge economy:
Agriculture represents the backbone of our economy. It can serve as a launching pad for transition to a knowledge economy, as it has a huge potential for revenue generation. But that can happen only if agricultural practices are carried out on scientific lines and use of technology maximised. The four major crops of Pakistan are wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane. They contribute about 37 percent of the total agricultural income and about nine percent to the GDP of Pakistan.
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Wheat is the most important crop of Pakistan, with the largest acreage. It contributes about three percent to the GDP. The national average yield is about 2.7 tons per hectare, whereas in Egypt the yields are 6.44 tons per hectare and in European countries such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom they are above seven tons per hectare. We presently produce about Rs220 billion worth of wheat. If we can boost our yields to match those of Egypt, it can generate another Rs350 billion, allowing us to systematically pay off the national debt and make available funding for health and education.
However, the government has been reluctant to invest in research, water reservoirs and dams and extension services so that the country continues to suffer. Some progressive farmers in irrigated areas have been able to obtain yields of 6-8 tons per hectare but they are very much a minority. In rain-fed areas the yields are normally between 0.5 tons to 1.3 tons per hectare, depending on the region and amount of rainfall. In irrigated areas the yields are normally higher, in the range of 2.5 tons to 3.0 tons per hectare. Improved semi-dwarf cultivars that are available in Pakistan can afford a yield of wheat between 6-8 tons per hectare. It is possible to increase the yields substantially with better extension services, judicious use of fertilisers and pesticides, and greater access of water from storage reservoirs and dams that need to be constructed.
Cotton represents an important fibre crop of Pakistan that generates about Rs250 billion to the national economy, and contributing about two percent to the national GDP. Pakistan is the fourth-largest producer of cotton in the world, but it is ranked at 10th in the world in terms of yields. The use of plant biotechnology can help to develop better cotton varieties. Bt cotton produces a pesticide internally and safeguards the plant against chewing insects. The yields of Pakistani seed cotton and cotton fibre are both about half those of China. A doubling of cotton yields is doable and it can add another Rs250 billion to the national economy.
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The failed system of democracy in Pakistan is strongly supported by Western governments. It serves Western interests as it leads to docile and submissive leaders who serve their foreign masters loyally. The stranglehold of the feudal system thrives with no priority given to education. More than parliamentarians have forged degrees and the degrees of another 250 are suspect. The Supreme Court decision of verification of their degrees is flouted and ignored by the Election Commission. The bigger the crook, the more respect he is given by the government and the biggest crooks are conferred the highest civil awards. The economy has nosedived and we are today ranked among the bottom six countries of the world in terms of our expenditure on education.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=83815&Cat=9
Saudi Arabia to help rebuild devastated water networks in Pakistan's flood-hit areas, reports Arab News:
Saudi Arabia signed an agreement in Riyadh on Monday with the local chapter of UNICEF to rebuild a massive water supply network in Pakistan devastated by ravaging floods.
The move follows an instruction from Crown Prince Naif, deputy prime minister and interior minister, who authorized Saudi officials to finance the repairing and renovation of some 76 potable water networks to ensure a clean and regular water supply to flood-hit families in the country’s Balochistan province.
“The cooperation agreement was signed by Saeed A. Al-Harthi, advisor at the Ministry of Interior; and Ibrahim Al-Ziq, UNICEF representative to the GCC,” said a statement released by the ministry.
The statement said this support from the Kingdom comes within the framework of the ongoing King Abdullah's Relief Campaign for Pakistani People (KARCPP), which has so far raised more than SR400 million to help people affected by floods in Pakistan.
Crown Prince Naif, who is also the KARCPP's general supervisor, has ordered the implementation of the water project, which will cost more than SR6 million.
Clean drinking water is not available in flood-hit areas even today because the entire water supply network was destroyed during the floods, said a Pakistani embassy official. “The water safety situation in Balochistan worsened as a result of the flooding and this also resulted in existing water sources being contaminated,” he added.
A month of incessant monsoon rains in the provinces of Balochistan and Sindh left at least 7 million people affected and claimed more than 400 lives recently. It was the second year running that disastrous flooding hit Pakistan and many of this year's victims had only just begun to rebuild their lives.
Balochistan is one of the five provinces of Pakistan. With an area of 347,190 square kilometers, it is the largest province of Pakistan with about 9 million people and constituting approximately 44 percent of the total landmass of the country.
Saudi Arabia has been at the forefront of efforts to help the people of Pakistan. The Kingdom was the largest donor to Pakistan's flood relief effort.
As part of the campaign, Saudi citizens and Pakistani expatriates cumulatively raised more than SR80 million in a separate campaign. Saudi Arabia was also the first and the only country to set up two field hospitals to Pakistan to provide medical services for flood victims there.
The Kingdom has also contributed about SR60 million to UNICEF to support polio eradication in Niger. The funds will be used to purchase oral polio vaccines and other accessories to allow the government of Niger and its partners to immunize up to 3.77 million children.
http://arabnews.com/saudiarabia/article554122.ece
German tunnel boring machines (TBMs) worth Rs 8bn to reach Pakistan by end of Jan 2012 for Neelum-Jhelum dam project, reports Daily Times:
LAHORE: The Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) is installing two tunnel boring machines (TBMs) at a cost of Rs 8 billion on 969 megawatts (MW) – Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project to reduce construction period of the project by about 18 months aimed at estimated benefit of Rs 60 billion.
The two German-manufactured TBMs, being imported by the contractor, are expected to reach Pakistan by the end of this month.
WAPDA Chairman Shakil Durrani stated this while briefing the Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) Prime Minister Chaudhry Abdul Majeed, and Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Dr Nadeem-ul-Haq during their visit to Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project components including underground powerhouse, weir site, diversion tunnel, de-sander and main tunnels etc. Federal Secretary Planning Asif Bajwa, AJK Chief Secretary Muhammad Shahzad Arbab, Planning Commission Member Energy Shahid Sattar, WAPDA Member (Water) Raghib Abbas Shah, Member (Power) Muhammad Qasim Khan and senior officers concerned were also present during the visit.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012\01\14\story_14-1-2012_pg5_16
Excerpts from The Nation story on $513 million ADB loan for water and power projects in Pakistan:
Pakistan and Asian Development Bank (ADB) has singed two loan agreements worth of $513.24 million that included $270 million for the tranche-2 of the Punjab Irrigated Agriculture Investment Programme (PIAIP) and $243.24 million for tranche-3 of the Power Transmission Enhancement Investment Programme.
Secretary Irrigation Department Punjab and Country Director Asian Development Bank in Pakistan have signed the first agreement of "Punjab Irrigated Agriculture Investment Programme (PIAIP) Tranche-II". This agreement aims at sustainable improved delivery of services for irrigated agriculture and better water management in Punjab. The project aims to provide reliable irrigation supplies to the Lower Chenab Canal Command area.
According to the agreement this project would include construction of a new barrage complex to be located approximately 275 meters downstream of the exiting Khanki Headwork on the river Chenab, which new barrage complex shall include a main weir and under sluice; gats and hosting arrangements; and operating deck and access road bridge. Construction of a canal head regulator adjacent to the new barrage and a lead channel to the existing lower Chenab canal and the dismantling of the existing Khanki Headwork and provision of implementation support to the project executing agency for construction supervision and management expenses of PMO barrage. The project is expected to be completed by the 30th June 2016. Secretary Economic Affairs Division and Country Director Asian Development Bank in Pakistan singed the second agreement Power Transmission Enhancement Investment Programme tracnhe-III.
This agreement targets to enhance the efficiency of the overall power transmission system and to provide an adequate and reliable power supply to a greater number of commercial, industrial and residential consumers. The projects shall comprise following, a new 600km 500 KV transmission line from Jahmshoro to Moro, Daudu and Rahim Yar Khan, a new 500 KV grid stations a Moro and expansion/ augmentation of 3 existing 500 KV grid stations at Jamshoro. Dadu and Rahim Yar Khan. A new 125 KM 220 KV transmission line from UCH-II power plant to the 220-grid station at Sibbi, and a connection between the UCH-I and UCH-II power plants. A new 200 KV grid station at Mansehra and procurement of transmission system equipment. This project is expected to be completed by 31st December 2015.
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/business/19-Jan-2012/adb-signs-loan-deals-with-pakistan-513-24m-for-power-agriculture
Here's Part 1 of National Geographic story about Pakistan's heartland of Punjab:
The fertile alluvium deposited by the mighty Indus river and its tributaries in Pakistan have given the country’s demographic heartland of Punjab an agrarian edge. Yet, errant canal planning and over-pumping from tube-wells have degraded vast tracts of land. Salinity and water-logging afflicts around 6.3 million hectares of land and an additional 4,000 hectare of land gets affected every year (estimates from University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan, November 2011). Climate change and conflicts over hydroelectric impoundment infrastructure have also made the arable lands of the country further vulnerable to flooding, as we saw in the epic floods of 2010 when an estimated 20 million people were displaced.
Amidst all these challenges to the farming economy of the country, there are glimmers of hope that Pakistan’s elite are trying to reconnect with the land in sincere and innovative ways. During my last trip to Lahore – the capital of Punjab province and Pakistan’s second-largest city (after Karachi), I was heartened to see urbanites retreating to farms in the surrounding countryside. Previously such farms were merely ornamental playgrounds of wealthy families but now there is a growing interest in these ranks to reconnect with the earth for societal good.
Zacky Farms, just outside Lahore, is the brainchild of Zafar Khan, a Caltech-educated software engineer who runs one of the most successful information technology companies in Pakistan named Sofizar. What started off as a recreational venture is now a side-business supplying sustainably produced organic milk, vegetables and meat to nearby Lahore suburbs. The farm is modeled on a cyclical model of minimal wastes and multiple product usage. The cows are fed pesticide-free oats, clover and grass and their manure is used to fuela biogas plant which runs the dairy facility. In an era of electricity load-shedding, such an alternative source of energy at a local industrial scale is immensely valuable to replicate as a development path. The residue of the biogas is used to fertigate the fodder fields and vegetable tunnels, which along with green manuring obviates the use of fertilizers. Free-range chickens grace the fields and there is even a fish farm on site. Zafar and his Ukrainian-born wife are committed to sharing their experiences with other farming entrepreneurs in the country.
Further south in a more rural and remote part of Punjab, famed writer and erstwhile lawyer, Daniyal Mueenudin, maintains a mid-size farm which is exemplifying other kinds of innovations. The farm does not boast ecological farming practices, apart from tunnel farming that can help with land conservation and humidity control. However, Daniyal has changed the social landscape of his area through implementing a “living wage” for all his employees. Noting the high level of inequality in Pakistan’s hinterland, the Yale-educated former director of the university’s Lowenstein Human Rights Clinic, is practicing what he preached. He also owns a farm in Wisconsin and could have a comfortable life in the States but his social obligations keep him ensconced in Pakistan for most of the year..
http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2012/02/23/farming-pakistan/
Here's Part 2 of National Geographic story about Pakistan's heartland of Punjab:
...Raising the wage several-fold for works and farm manager, and also offering bonus incentives for performance, has led to positive competition that can help to erode the feudal levels of income disparity which exist in this part of Pakistan. At the same time, Daniyal is also committed to providing new livelihood paths for the agrarian workers as automation reduces farm employment in some areas. He has has fully funded a school and provided a merit-based scholarship for advanced degrees to students from the nearby village. One of the children from this school (the first in his family to even go to school) is now making his way through medical school in Lahore!
Zafar and Daniyal’s stories of commitment to constructive farming for social and ecological good may appear to be outliers but they are catching on and provide hope to a country which is all too often shadowed by despair. In the suburbs of Islamabad, tax incentives and planning rules to encourage farming by urbanites are leading to a growing culture of reconnecting with the land in residential farms. In rural areas, the disaster caused by the floods of 2010 brought forth numerous aid agencies with new ideas for sustainable farming. The Pakistani diaspora, often known in the West for professions ranging from taxi-driving to engineering, may well find opportunities for reconnecting to their land in far more literal ways. With growing commitment from land-owners it just might be possible to use the existential shock of recent natural disasters that have befallen the country into a proverbial opportunity for positive change.
http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2012/02/23/farming-pakistan/
Here are some promises by WAPDA as reported in The News:
“WAPDA is also working on projects that will generate 35,500 MW of hydroelectricity including 22,800 MW run of the river projects,” WAPDA Chairman Sahkeel Durrani said.
“We are committed to ensure that Pakistan takes full advantage of its hydroelectricity production potential,” he said.
The first unit of 96 MW hydropower project at Jinnah Barrage has already been commissioned and it would start operating on full capacity by the end of this year, he said.
Durrani said that the 121 MW Allai Khwar project at Battagram is almost complete and would start generating power within few months.
“Duber Khwar - a 130 MW hydroelectric project at Kohistan, is scheduled to generate full power by December 2012,” he added. In addition Satpara Dam is generating 17.36 MW of hydroelectricity.
The 72 MW Khan Khwar hydropower project in 2011 is already generating its installed capacity, Durrani said.
“This is a humble contribution of WAPDA to reduce the gap between demand and supply of electricity,” he said.
Work on high capacity hydroelectricity projects is in full swing. He said the feasibility study and detailed engineering and design of 7,100 MW Bunji project in Gilgit Baltistan has been completed and is currently under review of WAPDA experts.
He said feasibility study of Dasu Dam in Khyber Pakhtunkwa has been completed. This dam he added would store 1.15 million acres of water and produce 4320 MW hydro electricity. “Consultants for preparation of detailed design and tender documents have been mobilized,” he added.
“Hydroelectric power projects having the potential to recover cost in short time are darlings of world donor agencies,” he said. Finances for such projects are available with much ease than other power projects.
There are 17 run of the river power generation sites that have been identified by WAPDA experts and work on the feasibility studies on most of them have been initiated.
These include some high power potential projects like 2100 MW Tungas, 2800 MW Yulbo at Sakurdu, 2800 MW Thakott at Besham and 2800 Patan at Patan.
He expressed confidence that the speed of work at Neelum Jehlum Hydroelectric Project would accelerate as the high tech tunnel boring machines have arrived at site. He said this would help WAPDA to complete the 969 MW power project on schedule in 2016.
Durrani said the 496 MW Lower Spat Gah; 665 MW Lower Palas Valley; and 600 MW Mahl; run of the river projects would be completed under Public Private Partnership. He hoped that the private sector would come forwards to grab this lucrative opportunity.
Chairman Water and Power Development Authority hoped that resources for 896 MW Tarbela (extension) and 1401 MW Munda Dam would be soon mobilized. Munda with a storage capacity of 1.3 million acres feet (MAF) would also act as buffer against floods in Khyber Pakhtumkhwa.
He said Mangla raising would add 2.88 MAF of water in the reservoirs. He said 34 MAF additional water storage would be available after completion of Munda Dam, Dasu Dam, Gomasl Zam Dam and Satpara Dam. He said Diamer Basha and Khurram Tungi Dam - both of which are ready for construction would add 9.3 MAF in water reservoirs.
He said the current water storage capacity in the country is 11.91 MAF after depletion of 4.37 MAF due to silting in the existing dams.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=92882&Cat=3
Here's an Express Tribune report on need for water conservation:
FAISALABAD: Adoption of modern water conservation methods and agricultural practices is imperative to cope with water scarcity as Pakistan has been placed in red zone due to low per capita water availability at 1,000 cubic metres.
These were the views of speakers who addressed a seminar titled “Remote sensing and hydrological modelling for irrigation water management”, organised by the Department of Irrigation and Drainage and Water Management Research Centre, University of Agriculture Faisalabad on Saturday.
University Vice Chancellor Dr Iqrar Ahmad said Pakistan was on the verge of water scarcity and should take extra measures to fight the challenge by creating awareness. In 2050, he said, the water situation would be alarming with per capita water availability at 550 cubic metres.
India has 1,600 cubic metres of water per person per year while major European countries have up to twice as much ranging from 2,300 cubic metres in Germany to 3,000 cubic metres in France. Ahmad said remote sensing could help get important data on crop production and irrigation needs.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/348386/pakistan-in-red-zone-as-water-resources-decline/
Here's an excerpt from an Express Tribune Op ed on water-food-energy triangle:
Food production requires water and energy, the extraction of water requires energy, and energy production requires water. Food prices are highly sensitive to energy costs – which indirectly affect the GDP of a country as high costs of processing, irrigation, fertiliser and transportation affect production and lead to lower exports.
This nexus poses a challenge to governments and population. The lack of energy security, lower agriculture yields and higher cost of relief goods is leading us towards unrest and uncertainty. This threatens our masses, our government and our business as 70 % of our country’s production is dependent on our agricultural sector.
Hunger and poverty are on the rise while we remain clueless about the future. Our reservoirs need to be secure and more dams need to be constructed faster, as draught and famine are fast turning into a possibility.
Agriculture, in Pakistan or elsewhere, consumes more than 70% of global water demand. For example, countries that produce meat require up to 20,000 litres of water for every kilogramme of meat produced, compared to at least 1,200 litres to produce a kilogram of grain. We do not realise the need for secure water resources due to illiteracy and lack of community awareness.
Climate change, in the shape of torrential rains, has also affected our country; we are one of the few countries facing a chronic food emergency today.
Economists forecast that global demand for energy will increase by 40% by 2030, and that this energy will draw heavily on freshwater resources. Over 75% of global demand for energy from 2012-2030, will be dependant on fossil fuels – predominantly coal. The Thar coal reserves need to be developed rapidly, as this is the only way to ensure job security, resource mobilisation, income and prosperity for the population. It makes good business sense for leaders to work on this. Furthermore, we have to ensure fast-tracked building of dams between now and 2015, a failure to do so may lead us to bankruptcy, as people will lose faith in the nation’s ability to sustain itself and business will suffer colossal damages.
We need good business and we need to understand the difference between dependency on others and self reliance. Bad governance is a major issue in Pakistan, eating up business and politics and leading us to ruins. Pakistan faces risks ahead as its next big war will not be over power or money – it will be over food, water or energy. All are vital as we struggle to survive. For Pakistan, failure is not an option.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/351745/the-food-water-energy-nexus--pakistan-walking-a-tightrope/#comment-617375
Here's a News story on financing of the Neelum-Jhelum project:
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan desperately needs $704 million to complete the strategic Neelum-Jehlum hydropower project on time as the current available capital is only enough for four to five months, sources in the ministry of water and power told The News.
“The cost of the project has swelled to over Rs333 billion for which the Planning Commission is evaluating the revised PC-1 of the project which will be given approval by Executive Committee of National Economic Council (Ecnec),” a senior official, who is directly involved in the project, said.
“Pakistan needs a credit line at any cost to maintain the ongoing pace of construction of the project, otherwise project would get delayed,” the official added.
If the project is not completed on time by 2016, India would find itself in a better position to first complete the Kishan-Ganga hydropower project on the Neelum River in the held Kashmir.
Under the Water Treaty, the country which completes the project first on Neelum river will have the first water priority rights. Pakistan is already in a legal battle at the International Court of Arbitration in Hague against India over faulty design of the Indian project.
Keeping in view the strategic emergency of the project, the official said, Pakistan needs $704 million and in this regard the government is under dialogue with various donor countries.
“China has already committed $483 million loan, but it has delayed the disbursement of the credit line,” the official said and added that the Prime Minister Syed Yousaf Raza Gillani is scheduled to visit Beijing some time this month and top priority of the agenda of the premier is to ensure the credit line from the EXIM Bank of China.
“Similarly, Islamic Development Bank has also committed $326 million for the project and the authorities in Pakistan are seeking additional $255 million.”
Moreover, the Saudi Development Fund has also committed $80 million but authorities are asking them to increase the credit line to up to $230 million, the official said. However, negotiations to this effect between Pakistan and Saudi Arab are underway. The UAE has also committed $100 million. The OPEC Fund has also indicated to extend $31 million which may go up to $80 million.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-3-98495-Pakistan-urgently-needs-$704-million-credit-line
Here's an AFP report on World Bank loaning over a billion dollars to Pakistan for hydro energy and drip-sprinkler irrigation projects:
The World Bank said Tuesday it would fund two projects totaling $1.09 billion, in energy and irrigation, aimed at supporting Pakistan's growth agenda for reducing poverty.
The World Bank's executive board approved the projects Tuesday, the development lender said in a statement.
The $840 million Tarbela IV Extension Hydropower Project will add power generation capacity of 1,410 megawatts, contributing a crucial source of electricity for the economic growth and development of Pakistan, the World Bank said.
Only 15 percent of Pakistan's vast hydropower potential has been developed, the Bank noted.
The Tarbela IV Extension Hydropower Project will use the existing dam, tunnel, roads and transmission line for generating additional electricity in summer months when demand for electricity and river flows are high, it added.
"The beauty of this project is that it will help Pakistan reduce the gap between supply and demand of electricity by maximizing the benefits of existing infrastructure of Tarbela Dam without requiring any land acquisition or relocation of population," Rachid Benmessaoud, World Bank country director for Pakistan, said in the statement.
"The direct beneficiaries will be millions of energy users, including industry, households and farmers who would get more electricity at a lower cost and suffer fewer blackouts."
The $250 million Punjab Irrigated Agriculture Productivity Improvement Program Project is aimed at getting maximum productivity out of irrigation water by weaning farmers away from the traditional and "wasteful" flood irrigation, the Bank said.
The project will emphasize more modern methods like drip and sprinkler irrigation systems, which in turn will encourage crop diversification, it said.
The hydropower project includes a $400 million, 21-year loan from the Bank's International Bank of Reconstruction and Development that includes a grace period of six years.
The remaining $440 million of the Tarbela project and $250 million for the irrigation project are credits from the International Development Association, the World Bank's concessionary lending arm.
These 25-year loans have a 1.25 percent interest rate and a five-year grace period, the Bank said.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gC8sjJnQh2zAV1dxx-fMAZlKG0FA?docId=CNG.cc5ff6942ce75ef4fd87ae4d1d3fa477.51
Here's TED blog on Peter Diamandis, the author of "Abundance":
Diamandis starts off his talk with some fast-cut clips of “crisis! Death! Disaster!” he’s collected from the last six months. The news media, he says, preferentially presents us with negative stories, because that’s what we pay attention to. And there’s a reason for that: since nothing is more important than survival, the first stop for all this awful information is the amygdala, the human early warning detection system that looks out for things that might harm us. In other words, we’re hard-wired to pay attention to the negative, dark side.
“So it’s no wonder that we’re pessimistic. it’s no wonder that people think the world is getting worse.” But Diamandis didn’t co-found Singularity University on a mere whim. From here, he swings into his more usual, optimistic mode: “We have the potential in the next three decades to create a world of abundance [the theme of Diamandis' recent book.] I’m not saying we don’t have our set of problems; we surely do,” he says. “As humans we’re far better at seeing the problems way in advance. Ultimately, we knock them down.”
Diamandis runs through some stats from the last century to show how things have improved for humankind. And he outlines some of the extraordinary advances made, particularly within the technological realm. After all: ”The rate at which technology is getting faster is itself getting faster.” And based on the likes of Moore’s Law ride some incredibly powerful technologies, not least robotics, 3D printing, artificial intelligence and nanomaterials.
Now, some stories:
Energy
Napoleon III once invited the King of Siam to dinner. Napoleon’s troops ate with silver utensils; Napoleon ate with gold utensils; the King of Siam used aluminum utensils–precisely because at that time, aluminum was the most valuable metal on the planet. It was only with electrolysis that the metal became cheap. Similar moves are happening in energy in our current times; solar energy, for instance, is now 50% of the cost of diesel in India.
Water
We talk about water wars. And yet we fight over 0.5% of the water on the planet. Diamandis talks of Dean Kamen’s Slingshot device, which can generate 100 liters clean water from any source. Coca Cola is apparently going to test this in the field soon–with a view to deploying it globally. Given how much water that company consumes, this is a big deal. Or, as Diamandis puts it, “this is the kind of innovation empowered by this technology that exists today.”
Health
Diamandis talks of the recently-announced Qualcomm Tricorder X Prize, challenging teams to incorporate medical diagnostic tools into a mobile device. “Imagine this device in the middle of the developing world,” he says, starrily. What of the potential of someone swabbing an unrecognized disease, calling it into the CDC and preventing a pandemic? Heady stuff.
Population
“The biggest protection against the population explosion is making the world educated and healthy,” says Diamandis, detailing that 5 billion people will be connected online by 2020. “What will these people want and desire?” And why wouldn’t that cause an economic injection rather than an economic shutdown? Why won’t they be healthier through the use of the Tricorder, better educated because of the likes of Khan Academy or using 3d printing to be more productive than ever before?
http://blog.ted.com/2012/02/28/creating-a-world-of-abundance-peter-diamandis-at-ted2012/
Here's a Guardian report on glaciers in Karakoram range in Pakistan:
The glaciers flowing between the towering peaks of the Karakoram range on the Pakistan-China border have grown in size in the last decade, according to new research.
The impact of climate change on the ice in the greater Himalaya range has been controversial because of an unfounded claim by the United Nations' climate science panel over the rate of melting in the region. However the melting of vast volumes of ice into the sea in most other parts of the world has been clearly demonstrated. In March, scientists showed that far less ice was being lost across the Himalayas than had been estimated from sparse ground surveys on the remote slopes.
The new study shows that glaciers in one important part of the mountain range are growing. "We provide a detailed glacier-scale evaluation of mass changes in the central Karakoram," said Julie Gardelle, at CNRS-Université Grenoble, who led the research published in Nature Geoscience on Sunday. "In our warming world, there are regions of the Earth where, for a few years or decades, the atmosphere is not warming or is even cooling. So it is not really a big surprise that there are some regions where the temperature is not rising and the Karakoram may be one of those."
The scientists used 3D altitude maps obtained from satellites in 2000 and 2008 to track the changes in the glaciers. Prof Graham Cogley, of Trent University in Canada, who was not part of the research team, called the approach a "ground-breaking" advance.
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Prof Jonathan Bamber, at the University of Bristol, said Gardelle's research was consistent with global gravity work. But he cautioned: "Nine years is a very short period to draw strong conclusions about trends in glaciers. If you are looking for a climate effect - as opposed to a weather effect - you usually take a 30-year period as a minimum, on the assumption that this averages out the interannual variability."
Cogley emphasised that, despite the relatively ice small growth seen the Karakoram, global glacier and ice cap melting is continuing and contributing to rising sea levels. "The world exhibits enormous variety, but that doesn't mean we cannot make valuable generalisations about how it is changing," he said.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/apr/15/karakoram-glaciers-grown-research
Here's a Pak Observer report on British aid for flood affectees:
The UK Government will build 27,000 flood resistant permanent homes in Pakistan that can provide some 189,000 women, men and children a permanent roof in addition to helping 28,500 families to repair their homes damaged by last year’s floods. According to George Turkington, Head of DFID-Pakistan “the UK has provided shelter and built flood resistant houses for more than half-a-million children, women, and men who have lost their homes in last year’s devastating floods.”
“It is of deep concern that eight months after the devastating floods in Sindh many people still live in severely damaged or temporary shelter.. That’s why the UK is building flood resistant permanent shelter for another 27,000 families, and will help tens of thousands more to repair their homes”, DFID official said in a statement. “This is testament to the deep friendship and bond between the UK and Pakistan – we will always stand by and support each other,” George Turkington added.
As part of the continued aid to last year’s flood-hit people om Sindh the UK agencies is also offering packages of 405g of vegetable seeds, 2 kg of sunflower seeds.
http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=152015
World Bank agrees to fund Dasu Dam in Pakistan, reports Express Tribune:
Following the signing of an agreement with the government of Pakistan for providing $840 million for the 1,410-megawatt Tarbela 4th Extension Project, the World Bank has also agreed to extend financial assistance to the 4,320MW Dasu Hydropower Project.
It has also been agreed that the project will be constructed in phases after work on the 4,500MW Diamer-Bhasha Dam is initiated and its financial plan is finalised.
Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) Chairman Shakil Durrani stated this while presiding over a meeting here at the Wapda House to discuss the report submitted by an international panel of experts.
Addressing the meeting, the Wapda chairman said international financial institutions were taking keen interest in providing funds for Wapda projects due to excellent ‘economic internal rate of return’ (EIRR) of these schemes.
The Dasu project is part of the least-cost energy production plan of Wapda aimed at harnessing the country’s hydropower resources to improve the share of hydroelectricity in energy mix.
The project will be constructed on the Indus River, seven km upstream of Dasu village and 74 km downstream of Diamer-Bhasha Dam. The project is situated on the Karakoram Highway, about 350 km from Islamabad.
According to a statement issued by Wapda, the priority is to construct Diamer-Bhasha Dam for which land acquisition process has already started and 13 contracts for offices, colonies and roads have been awarded.
Dasu Hydropower Project will follow the initiation of work on Diamer-Bhasha Dam. Detailed engineering design, for which the World Bank is providing funds, and tender documents are likely to be completed in early 2013. Afterwards, construction work will commence.
The project will generate 21.3 billion units of electricity per annum and will also have positive impact on existing hydropower stations including Tarbela, Ghazi Barotha and Chashma.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/397368/world-bank-agrees-to-fund-dasu-hydropower-project/
Here's PakTribune on WAPDA's power & water projects:
The Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) here on Thursday informed the Senate Standing Committee on Water and Power that WAPDA is working on 20,000 megawatts (MW) hydel power generation projects and assured that 10,276 MW at lowest rates will be made available in the country by 2020.
The Senate body met in the Parliament House with Senator Zahid Khan in the chair, Minister for Water and Power Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar, secretary Zafar Mehmood and Petroleum Secretary Dr Waqar Masood Khan also attended the meeting. The members of the committee questioned that who would be judging the claim of WAPDA in 2020 when no one from the members of this committee will be in the parliament. However, WAPDA officials assured the committee that what they are committed to make sure through their efforts by 2020 that 10,276 MW power through hydel projects would be available in the country.
A WAPDA official explained that less than committed financial resources is the main hurdle in delay and cost overrun on water and power sector development projects and sought help of the committee in providing funds to WAPDA as per committed amount to make its planning predictable.
WAPDA Chairman Shakeel Durrani was optimistic about the average annual flows and water storage potential of the country and informed that some 17.8 million acres feet (MAF) water would be available for storage in future in the country (enough for three dams like Diamer Bhasha Dam).
The live storage of the Diamer Bhasha Dam would be 6.8 MAF and WAPDA has already released Rs 5 billion for land acquisition and Rs 13 billion for construction or establishment of required infrastructure for the construction of dam like roads, residential colony and offices power availability. Explaining the access water availability scenario, he informed that average annual flows to Kotri Downstream were 31.3 MAF during 1976-2010. However, during 2012 alone 54.5 MAF flows to Kotri Downstream were recorded.
http://paktribune.com/business/news/WAPDA-working-on-20000MW-hydel-power-projects-10053.html
Here's Wall Street Journal story on Indian farmers' dependence on rain:
The southwest monsoon arrives over India mainly via winds from the Arabian Sea. It usually hits the mainland through the southern state of Kerala by late May or early June and then gradually moves north to cover the entire country by mid-July.
The timing, distribution and quantity of monsoon rains are vital to India's agriculture sector and economy. Nearly two-thirds of the country's farmlands are rain-fed, and about 600 million people are dependent directly or indirectly on agriculture. Agriculture accounts for 17% of gross domestic product.
This year, the monsoon arrived late over Kerala. Its progress over the rest of India has been sporadic, and rains have failed to pick up over eastern and northwestern parts of the country.
To date, rainfall is about 17% below the 50-year average, But in northwestern grain bowl states such as Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan the deficiency has been much worse, with rainfall of 60%-70% below average.
Parts of the western states of Gujarat and Maharashtra and the southern state of Karnataka have also been affected with the rainfall deficiency ranging from 30% to 70%.
How the monsoon gathers momentum as it progresses toward India's mainland varies from year to year. D.S Pai, head of long-range forecasting in the India Meteorological Department, said this year, the build-up of moisture-laden monsoon winds from the Arabian Sea had been weak and had shifted toward the eastern half of the country from the west due to the play of certain sea winds.
El Niño, a weather phenomenon that usually disrupts rainfall in India, is also expected to emerge in September and could further deepen the crisis. Recently, the India Meteorological Department said that rainfall through the monsoon season is likely to be 85% of the long-period average.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443792604577575323402758832.html
Here's an ET report on Russian interest in building Diamer Bhasha dam:
Russia is seeking direct award of a construction contract for the $13 billion Diamer Bhasha Dam in a government-to-government deal without resorting to international competitive bidding, sources say.
Faced with water and power shortages, Pakistan is looking for funds from China and Russia, who in turn want a government-to-government deal without international bidding.
The government’s search for funds came after multilateral donors asked Pakistan to get a no-objection certificate from India for the dam’s construction.
China and Russia want a similar arrangement for undertaking the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project, which has faced fierce opposition from the United States.
According to sources, Pakistan and Russia are likely to strike a final deal on the dam during visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Islamabad next month.
“A meeting of Pak-Russia inter-ministerial commission will be held before the visit of Russian president, which will work out a mechanism for financing mega projects,” a government official said.
In a meeting of the Inter-governmental Commission (IGC) held here on Monday, government officials gave a detailed briefing to the Russian team on planned energy projects. However, sources said, Russia made no firm commitment to the dam.
According to the official, it was just a preparatory meeting to discuss different projects, which could be tabled during deliberations with the Russian president.
In the IGC meeting, the Russian side was told that Bhasha Dam was a strategic project with power generation capacity of 4,500 megawatts to overcome the energy crisis. It will have water storage capacity of 8.5 million acre feet to feed the agricultural sector.
Chinese offer
The Chinese government has already offered Pakistan skilled labour for the construction of Bhasha Dam. China has 17,000 skilled workers, who have worked on the giant Three Gorges Dam, which is producing 30,000 megawatts of electricity.
On the other hand, multilateral donors have asked Pakistan to seek a no-objection certificate from India to pave the way for financing the dam, which they say is situated in a disputed territory. Instead, they have offered to finance another project – Dasu hydropower, but the government has rejected the plan and wants to complete Bhasha Dam first.
On Monday, a delegation of the World Bank, headed by Country Director Rachid Benmessaud, called on Federal Water and Power Minister Ahmed Mukhtar and once again offered to finance phase-I of the Dasu project.
Dasu hydropower project is situated 7 km upstream of Dasu village on Indus River and 350 km from Islamabad. The project is located in Kohistan district of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/435035/diamer-bhasha-dam-russia-wants-to-take-up-project-without-bidding/
Here's Daily Times on ongoing hydroelectric dams and irrigation canals construction in Pakistan:
The prime minister said that the timely completion of hydropower projects was vital for controlling floods along with mitigating water and power shortfall. The government is prioritising the water storage projects, he added.
Raja directed the WAPDA chairman to expedite the work on Kachhi canal, Rainee canal, RBOD-1 and RBOD-III. These projects would be instrumental in controlling the floods as well as for irrigation purposes, he added.
The chairman apprised the prime minister about the progress on eight ongoing projects with cumulative capacity of about 1,500 megawatts (MW).
Out of these, six projects of about 400 MW including Jinnah Dam 96 MW, Gomal Zam Dam 17MW, Satpara Dam 17 MW, Allai Khwar 121 MW, Duber Khwar 130 MW and Jabban Dam 22 MW would be completed in 2012 while the work on Neelum-Jhelum with production capacity of 969 MW and Golen Gol with capacity of 106 MW was progressing at full swing, said the chairman.
The prime minister directed the chairman to take up work on small and medium-sized dams especially in Balochistan and FATA on priority. The prime minister also directed WAPDA chairman to work on war footing to repair the breaches in the canal networks affected by recent floods in Sindh and Balochistan, so that the infrastructure could be restored.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012\09\25\story_25-9-2012_pg5_4
Here's a NY Times blog post on India's planned dams and India's lack of concern for environmental impact on India ad reduction of water for Pakistan and Bangladesh:
...India’s government was grappling with growing pressure to increase the dependability of its electricity service — for the growing numbers who have intermittent power and the 400 million who live without it.
As a solution, the government proposed constructing 292 dams throughout the Indian Himalayas — roughly a dam every 20 miles. If completed, the 7,000- to 11,000-megawatt dams would double the country’s hydropower capacity and meet about 6 percent of the national energy needs projected for 2030 (based upon 8 percent annual growth of the nation’s domestic product). The dams, the reasoning goes, would provide electricity to needy people as well as offset carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants.
Scientists and citizens alike are crying foul, however, pointing out that the dams will probably displace millions and wreck ecosystems throughout the Himalayas.
No binding provisions are in place to ensure that displaced people receive adequate compensation and help with resettlement — and most of the projects are proceeding without adequate environmental impact surveys.
“The key issue is that there’s no requirement in India’s law to do cumulative impact assessments,” said R. Edward Grumbine, a senior international scientist at the Chinese Academy of Science’s Kunming Institute of Botany. Dr. Grumbine and his colleague, Mahara Pandit at the University of Delhi, wrote one of the first scientific papers discussing the dams, recently published in Science.
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How these dams may affect communities and ecosystems in neighboring downstream countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan is little discussed.
Climate change offers a further strike against the projects. By 2050, scientists predict, the water supply from the Brahmaputra and Indus — two major rivers among the 28 that would receive dams — will decrease by about 20 percent and 8 percent, respectively. Those reductions would in turn cut the rivers’ capacity to produce electricity, undermining the dams’ purpose.
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/07/hobbled-on-energy-india-ponders-a-multitude-of-dams/
Here's a report on Pakistan climate change policy:
Disaster-prone Pakistan has launched its first ever national policy on climate change, detailing how it plans to tackle the challenges posed by global warming, mitigate its risks and adapt key sectors of the country's economy to cope with its consequences.
Pakistan is highly vulnerable to weather-related disasters such as cyclones, droughts, floods, landslides and avalanches. Devastating floods in 2010 disrupted the lives of 20 million people – many more than the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami – and cost $10 billion.
The climate change policy, developed with the support of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), recommends some 120 steps the country could take to slow down the impact of global warming, as well as adapt sectors such as energy, transport and agriculture.
Measures include flood forecasting warning systems, local rainwater harvesting, developing new varieties of resilient crops, promoting renewable energy sources and more efficient public transport.
"The National Climate Change policy takes into account risks and vulnerabilities of various development sectors with specific emphasis on water, food, energy and national security issues," said Rana Mohammad Farooq Saeed Khan, Minister for Climate Change at the launch of the policy is Islamabad on Tuesday.
But the policy needs a concrete action plan to back it up, with details, budgets and timelines first, some newspaper commentators said, adding that only then could there be a chance of effective implementation.
Questions have also arisen about where the money to fund implementation will come from and whether Pakistan's provinces have the capacity and expertise to put it in place.
Last year, a major U.N. report said the world needed to prepare better to deal with extreme weather and rising seas caused by climate change, in order to save lives and limit deepening economic losses.
UNDP's Pakistan Director Marc-André Franche said addressing changing weather patterns would help the country's economic development.
"Pakistan is among the most vulnerable countries facing climate risks and mechanisms need to be devised for greener, more resilient options for growth and sustainable development, said Franche at the launch.
"I hope the policy will help key stakeholders in identifying capacities and skills for the successful implementation of the policy," he added.
http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/pakistan-launches-first-national-climate-change-policy
http://undp.org.pk/images/documents/National%20Climate%20Change%20Policy%20of%20Pakistan.pdf
Here's a Hydroworld report on hydroelectric projects in Pakistan:
ISLAMABAD, March 20 -- Government would complete the Neelum Jhleum Hydro project, Golen Gol and Dubair Khawar hydro projects within the stipulated time frame and resolve the issues related to any project.
This assurance was given by the Secretary Water and Power, Sikander Ahmed Rai while chairing a meeting with visiting Joint Supervisory Mission (JSM) of lead financers of three hydro power projects here today.
The consortium includes representatives from Islamic Development Bank, Saudi Fund Development, Kuwait Fund Development and Opec. The meeting was also attended by additional Secretary Ministry of Water and Power, Chairman Wapda and senior officials of Neelum Jheluim project, Golen Gol and Dubair Khawar project and ministry of Water and Power.
Secretary water and Power said that the government has also allocated the funds for the projects and financial support of the donors would help to complete the project in time. He said that the progress on three projects being reviewed and monitored regularly. Pakistan is facing energy shortage and timely completion of these projects would help to bridge the gap between demand and supply. He also thanked the delegation for visiting Pakistan to review the progress of the projects.
Earlier, the Chairman Wapda briefed the JSM that KhanKhawar hydro project of 72 MW and Allai Khawar Projects of 122 MW have been completed. While the remaining three projectsw of 1205 MW would be completed as per their schedule. Dubair Khawar project would be completed by June this year. Neelum Jhelum Hydro project of 969 MW by 2016 and Golen Gol project of 106 MW would be completed by 2015. He also informed that the Government has recently approved Rs 24 billionfor for Neelum Jhelum Project. He said that 47 % work on tunnel boring has been completed on Neelum Jhelum project.
The JSM appreciated the progress on three projects and stated that the consortium of financers would continue its support for energy projects. The JSM would also visit the sites of all the three projects to review the progress
http://www.hydroworld.com/news/2013/03/19/pakistan-power-projects-to-be-completed-on-time.html
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