OECD Migration Report 2017:
Nearly 50,000 Pakistani immigrants became citizens of the rich industrialized countries of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 2015, according to International Migration Outlook 2017 recently published by the Organization.
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| Source: International Migration Outlook 2017 |
India topped the list with 130,000 Indians acquiring citizenship of OECD nations in 2015, followed by Mexico (112,000) ranked 2nd, the Philippines (94,000) ranked 3rd, Morocco (94,000) ranked 4th, China (78,000) ranked 5th, Albania (52,000) ranked 6th and Pakistan (50,000) ranked 7th.
In addition, Pakistan was the 18th largest source of immigrants with 99,000 Pakistanis migrating to OECD nations in 2015. India is 5th on this list with 268,000 Indians migrating to OECD countries.
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| Source: International Migration Outlook 2017 |
Humanitarian migration of refugees, rather than migration for better economic prospects, dominated OECD inflows during 2015. War-torn Syria was the second largest source with 430,000 migrants in 2015, the report said.
Pew Research Data:
India is the world's largest exporter of labor with 15.8 million Indians working in other countries. Bangladesh ranks 5th with 7.2 million Bangladeshis working overseas while Pakistan ranks 6th with 5.9 million Pakistanis working overseas, according to Pew Research report released ahead of International Migrants Day observance on Sunday, December 18, 2016.
International Migration:
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| Countries of Origin of Migrants to the United States Source: Pew Research |
Pew Research reports that nearly 3.5 million Indians lived in the UAE, the world’s second-largest migration corridor in 2015. While most of the migration is from low and middle income countries to high-income countries, the top 20 list of migrants' origins also includes rich countries like the United States (ranked 20), United Kingdom (11), Germany (14), Italy (21) and South Korea (25).
Top 25 Sources of Migrants:
Here is the list of top 20 countries of origin for international migrants:
1. India 15.9 million
2. Mexico 12.3 million
3. Russia 10.6 million
4. China 9.5 million
5. Bangladesh 7.2 million
6. Pakistan 5.9 million
7. Ukraine 5.83 million
8. Philippines 5.32 million
9. Syria 5.01 million
10. Afghanistan 4.84 million
11. United Kingdom 4.92 million
12. Poland 4.45 million
13. Kazakstan 4.08 million
14. Germany 4.0 million
15. Indonesia 3.88 million
16. Palestine 3.55 million
17. Romania 3.41 million
18. Egypt 3.27 million
19. Turkey 3.11 million
20. United States 3.02 million
21. Italy 2.9 million
22. Burma (Myanmar) 2.88 million
23. Colombia 2.64 million
24. Vietnam 2.56 million
25. South Korea 2.35 million
Declining Labor Pool in Developed Economies:
The world population is aging with slowing labor force growth. It is particularly true of the more developed nations with aging populations and declining birth rates. In an recent report titled "Asian Economic Integration Report", the Asian Development argued that migration within Asia can help deal with regional labor imbalances. It said as follows:
"In Asia and the Pacific, many economies could expand their role as the source or host economy for migrant workers.
Labor supply is still growing in developing economies—such as Cambodia, Indonesia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Mongolia, Myanmar, India, Pakistan, and the Philippines—and they could export labor across the region. In contrast, developed but aging economies such as Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea; Japan; and Singapore are unable to meet labor demand with their dwindling workforce.
Hence, these economies would benefit from immigrant labor. Kang and Magoncia (2016) further discuss the potential for migration to reallocate labor from surplus to deficit economies and offer a glimpse of how the demographic shift will frame Asia’s future population structure, particularly the future working age population. Among the issues explored is the magnitude of labor force surpluses and deficits within different economies in Asia."
Pakistan's Growing Labor Force:
Pakistan has the world’s sixth largest population, sixth largest diaspora and the ninth largest labor force with growing human capital. With rapidly declining fertility and aging populations in the industrialized world, Pakistan's growing talent pool is likely to play a much bigger role to satisfy global demand for workers in the 21st century and contribute to the well-being of Pakistan as well as other parts of the world.
With half the population below 20 years and 60 per cent below 30 years, Pakistan is well-positioned to reap what is often described as "demographic dividend", with its workforce growing at a faster rate than total population. This trend is estimated to accelerate over several decades. Contrary to the oft-repeated talk of doom and gloom, average Pakistanis are now taking education more seriously than ever. Youth literacy is about 70% and growing, and young people are spending more time in schools and colleges to graduate at higher rates than their Indian counterparts in 15+ age group, according to a report on educational achievement by Harvard University researchers Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee. Vocational training is also getting increased focus since 2006 under National Vocational Training Commission (NAVTEC) with help from Germany, Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands.
Pakistan's work force is over 60 million strong, according to the Federal Bureau of Statistics. With increasing female participation, the country's labor pool is rising at a rate of 3.5% a year, according to International Labor Organization.
With rising urban middle class, there is substantial and growing demand in Pakistan from students, parents and employers for private quality higher education along with a willingness and capacity to pay relatively high tuition and fees, according to the findings of Austrade, an Australian government agency promoting trade. Private institutions are seeking affiliations with universities abroad to ensure they offer information and training that is of international standards.
Trans-national education (TNE) is a growing market in Pakistan and recent data shows evidence of over 40 such programs running successfully in affiliation with British universities at undergraduate and graduate level, according to The British Council. Overall, the UK takes about 65 per cent of the TNE market in Pakistan.
It is extremely important for Pakistan's public policy makers and the nation's private sector to fully appreciate the expected demographic dividend as a great opportunity. The best way for them to demonstrate it is to push a pro-youth agenda of education, skills development, health and fitness to take full advantage of this tremendous opportunity. Failure to do so would be a missed opportunity that could be extremely costly for Pakistan and the rest of the world.
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| Growth Forecast 2014-2050. Source: EIU |
In the high fertility countries of Africa and Asia family sizes are continuing to decline. And in low fertility countries family sizes will continue to remain below replacement levels. Why? Because the same juggernaut forces are operating: increasing urbanization, smaller and costly housing, expanding higher education and career opportunities for women, high financial costs and time pressures for childrearing and changing attitudes and life styles.
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| Source: BBC |
Countries With Declining Populations:
115 countries, including China (1.55), Hong Kong (1.17), Taiwan (1.11) and Singapore (0.8) are well below the replacement level of 2.1 TFR. Their populations will sharply decline in later part of the 21st century.
United States is currently at 2.01 TFR, slightly below the replacement rate. "We don't take a stance one way or the other on whether it's good or bad," said Mark Mather, demographer with the Population Reference Bureau. Small year-to-year changes like those experienced by the United States don't make much difference, he noted. But a sharp or sustained drop over a decade or more "will certainly have long-term consequences for society," he told Utah-based Desert News National.
Japan (1.4 TFR) and Russia (1.6 TFR) are experiencing among the sharpest population declines in the world. One manifestation in Japan is the data on diaper sales: Unicharm Corp., a major diaper maker, has seen sales of adult diapers outpace infant diapers since 2013, according to New York Times.
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| Median Age Map: Africa in teens, Pakistan in 20s, China, South America and US in 30s, Europe, Canada and Japan in 40s. |
The Russian population grew from about 100 million in 1950 to almost149 million by the early 1990s. Since then, the Russian population has declined, and official reports put it at around 144 million, according to Yale Global Online.
Reversing Trends:
Countries, most recently China, are finding that it is far more difficult to raise low fertility than it is reduce high fertility. The countries in the European Union are offering a variety of incentives, including birth starter kits to assist new parents in Finland, cheap childcare centers and liberal parental leave in France and a year of paid maternity leave in Germany, according to Desert News. But the fertility rates in these countries remain below replacement levels.
Summary:
Overzealous Pakistani birth control advocates need to understand what countries with sub-replacement fertility rates are now seeing: Low birth rates lead to diminished economic growth. "Fewer kids mean fewer tax-paying workers to support public pension programs. An "older society", noted the late Nobel laureate economist Gary Becker, is "less dynamic, creative and entrepreneurial." Growing labor force n Pakistan can not only contribute to Pakistan's prosperity but also help alleviate the effects of aging populations and declining labor pools in more developed economies. I believe that Pakistan's growing population and young demographics should be seen as a blessing, not a curse.
Related Links:
Haq's Musings
Pakistan's Expected Demographic Dividend
Pakistan's Growing Human Capital
Upwardly Mobile Pakistan
Pakistan Most Urbanized in South Asia
Hindu Population Growth Rate in Pakistan
Do South Asian Slums Offer Hope?
27 comments:
On a per capita basis Pakistan beats India by a country mile.India has around 3X immigrants with 7X the population...
Noticeable among the emigrants-aplenty countries you have listed are Japan, Canada, France, Germany, the USA, and yes, the KSA -- if only because people there are comfortable with where they are.
Therefore, it seems, it is a terrible thing for a country to be on that list you cite.
Anon: "On a per capita basis Pakistan beats India by a country mile.India has around 3X immigrants with 7X the population..."
Poorest and least developed people tend to stay put where they are; they do not migrate. It's only people who have a certain level of income and skills who are more likely to migrate to other countries for better opportunities. This fact has been well-established by multiple studies conducted in Africa.
Here's an except of African Development Bank report on migration:
"Results show that despite increase in the absolute number of migrants, Africa, particularly SubSaharan Africa has one of the lowest rate of emigration in the world .... Poorer countries generally have lower rate of emigration ......Bad socio-economic conditions generally seem to lead to higher rate of emigration by highly skilled individuals. Generally, migration is driven by motives to improve livelihoods with notable evidence on changes in labor market status. Often, self-employed or unemployed émigré ended up in wage employment. The paper outlines policy issues emerging from the migration trend in Africa."
http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/06/why-dont-indian-muslims-migrate-to.html
Shams: " Noticeable among the emigrants-aplenty countries you have listed are Japan, Canada, France, Germany, the USA, and yes, the KSA -- if only because people there are comfortable with where they are."
It seems you failed to notice that US (138,000), UK (123,000) , France (116,000) and Germany ( 109,000) all all listed above Pakistan (99.000) ....they each had more people migrating to other countries, even though all except US have significantly smaller populations.
Look at the table again: https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-crRfdyimLUQ/WVciVZF3eiI/AAAAAAAAJDY/9FjTV4sT7wYPm8i0jBv4eyu3tWkAIyqUACLcBGAs/s1600/Top%2B50%2BSources%2Bof%2BImmigrants%2Bin%2BOECD%2BCountries.png
Poorest and least developed people tend to stay put where they are; they do not migrate. It's only people who have a certain level of income and skills who are more likely to migrate to other countries for better opportunities. This fact has been well-established by multiple studies conducted in Africa.
Here's an except of African Development Bank report on migration:
"Results show that despite increase in the absolute number of migrants, Africa, particularly SubSaharan Africa has one of the lowest rate of emigration in the world .... Poorer countries generally have lower rate of emigration ......Bad socio-economic conditions generally seem to lead to higher rate of emigration by highly skilled individuals. Generally, migration is driven by motives to improve livelihoods with notable evidence on changes in labor market status. Often, self-employed or unemployed émigré ended up in wage employment. The paper outlines policy issues emerging from the migration trend in Africa."
http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/06/why-dont-indian-muslims-migrate-to.html
Growth Forecast 2014-2050 shows Pakistan GDP growing at barely above 3%! Nigeria, Philippines Angola are much faster and then you want population growing more. If that happens you have very small per capita growth. Am I missing something?
"Poorest and least developed people tend to stay put where they are; they do not migrate. It's only people who have a certain level of income and skills who are more likely to migrate to other countries for better opportunities. "
Except those who migrate out as asylum seekers, like minorities of Pakistan.
"On a per capita basis Pakistan beats India by a country mile.India has around 3X immigrants with 7X the population..."
that is because pakistan se Zinda bhaag. In any case majority of them end up as taxi drivers and pizza delivery, not as Univ Prof or CEO of IT companies.
So Riaz, if Indian leave India it is because India is hell. If Pakis leave their motherland, it is sign of their superiority??
RK: " In any case majority of them end up as taxi drivers and pizza delivery, not as Univ Prof or CEO of IT companies."
That's just false. Some do drive taxis and there's nothing wrong with that. However, Pakistan is also the the 2nd largest source of foreign doctors in UK and the 3rd largest source of foreign doctors in US, according to OECD.
http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/12/pakistan-is-3rd-largest-source-of.html
And there are thousands of Pakistan techies in Silicon Valley working on leading edge as engineers, entrepreneurs and executives.
http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/05/pakistanis-make-up-silicon-valleys.html
RK: " So Riaz, if Indian leave India it is because India is hell. If Pakis leave their motherland, it is sign of their superiority??"
They would all leave India if they could but a lot fewer Indians have the means and the skills needed than the Pakistanis because of India's low median income and high levels of poverty compared to Pakistan.
http://www.riazhaq.com/2017/01/comparing-median-income-wealth-data-for.html
Aftab: "Growth Forecast 2014-2050 shows Pakistan GDP growing at barely above 3%! "
Whose forecast?
Pakistan’s predicted annual growth rate for the next 10 years is 5.07 percent, according to the Center for International Development at Harvard University (CID) research published recently.
http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/rankings/growth-predictions/
World Bank expects Pakistan growth to pick up to a 5.2 percent rate in fiscal 2017 (July 1, 2016 – June 30, 2017) and to 5.5 percent in the next fiscal year, reflecting an upturn in private investment, increased energy supply, and improved security.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/06/06/global-growth-set-to-strengthen-to-2-7-percent-as-outlook-brightens
Population growth declining, reaches 1.86% in 2017
It was 1.92 per cent in 2015 and declined to 1.89 per cent in 2016, an official data issued here on Sunday said. It said increasing population growth raises dependency ratio and puts pressure on education, health system and food supply. However, women’s education can help reduce population growth because education would increase awareness about their duty towards children and health risk factor. Due to constant improvement in health and education indicators along with effective population welfare programmes, the population growth is declining. – APP
http://pakobserver.net/population-growth-declining-reaches-1-86-2017/
The Gapminder animations based on data compiled by Prof Hans Rosling show that life expectancy in Pakistan has jumped from 32 years in 1947 to 67 years now, and per Capita inflation-adjusted PPP income has risen from $766 in 1948 to over $5,000 now. http://www.gapminder.org/tools/#_locale_id=en;&chart-type=bubbles
#Population in 2100. #India passes #China, #Pakistan stays at number 6 as #Nigeria, #Congo pass #Pakistan https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/07/11-facts-about-world-population-you-might-not-know/ … via @wef
Every year, the world’s population is expanding by 83 million people. Right now, there are around 7.6 billion people in the world. By 2050, there will be just short of 10 billion.
But population trends are wildly uneven - some countries are rapidly expanding, others are shrinking.
Each scenario brings its own challenge for governments. Countries whose populations are declining have to think about how to support older people when there fewer young workers to pay into government funds. Countries with a booming young population have to grapple with how to feed them and provide education and healthcare.
Three major things affect population. Fertility is the main factor, followed by mortality and then migration.
Here are some key facts about the world’s population, taken from the latest UN World Population Prospects.
1. By 2024 India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country
China currently has 1.4 billion inhabitants, closely followed by India with 1.3 billion. Together they make up 37% of the world’s population.
2. Nigeria has the world’s fastest growing population
Nigeria is currently 7th on the list of most populous countries, but before 2050 it will have made third place, overtaking the US.
[please make a chart, numbers are in millions]
1 China 1 397 029
2 India 1 309 054
3 United States of America 319 929
4 Indonesia 258 162
5 Brazil 205 962
6 Pakistan 189 381
7 Nigeria 181 182
8 Bangladesh 161 201
9 Russian Federation 143 888
10 Japan 127 975
3. Fertility has fallen all over the world
Since the 1960s, the global birth rate has fallen to an average of 2.5 births per woman. However, that average is made up of highly diverse figures: in Africa its 4.7 births per woman, in Europe it’s 1.6 births per woman.
4. Half of the population growth will take place in 9 countries
From 2017 to 2050, India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania, the United States of America, Uganda and Indonesia will contribute the most to population growth.
This means that the population of Africa is set to roughly double between now and 2050.
5. Europe’s population will decline
6. Almost half the world’s population live in countries with low fertility
Between 2010 and 2015, 46% of the world’s population lived in 83 countries where the fertility level was below the threshold of 2.1.
7. The world is getting older
An increasing number of people are living to a ripe old age. In 1950, there were far more young than old. In 2017, there are fewer young and more older people. By 2050, the numbers will even out.
8. We are living longer
Overall, life expectancy is increasing. On a global level, life expectancy at birth rose by almost 4 years, or from 67 to 71 years, between 2000 and 2015.
It is projected to rise to around 77 years in the period between 2045 and 2050, and eventually to 83 years in the period between 2095 and 2100.
9. Differences in life expectancy will get less pronounced
10. Africa still has a relatively young population, the same can’t be said for Europe
In 2017, 60% of the African population is under the age of 25, only 5% are 60 or older. In Europe, only a quarter of the population is under 25. Another quarter are 60 or older.
11. Net migration is declining
Between 1950 and 2015, Europe, Northern America and Oceania, more people immigrated in than migrated out.
Africa, Africa, Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean had more people leave than enter.
Migration peaked in 2005-2010 to 4.5 million people per year moving between major regions of the world. Between 2010 and 2015 the figure was 3.2 million.
For countries with low fertility rates, migration may be the only way to avert population decline.
#Pakistani skilled workers to get #jobs in #Japan. Japan is facing serious labor shortage. #Japan expects to hire 340,000 #foreign skilled workers from #Pakistan, #Philippines, #Cambodia, #Mongolia, #Myanmar, #Nepal and #Vietnam. https://www.dawn.com/news/1483392
Pakistan and Japan are exploring ways to expand cooperation for employment of Pakistani skilled workers in Japan.
Japan is facing serious labour shortage, and the government has decided to accept foreign human resources, with specific expertise and skills.
A new ‘Status of Residence’ for specific skilled workers has been created that became effective on April 1.
For this purpose, the Japanese government has amended the ‘Immigration Control Act’ and took comprehensive measures for the acceptance of foreign workers residing in Japan.
Within the next five years, Japan expects to hire services of 340,000 skilled workers.
“Stakeholders show interest in opportunities for Pakistani people to work in Japan and I have talked to find ways for these opportunities with the ministry of foreign affairs and economic affairs division besides stakeholders like ministry of education and National Vocational and Technical Education Commission,” said Yuji Tokita, head of the Economic and Development Section at the Embassy of Japan in Islamabad.
The Japanese government has already signed a memorandum for cooperation with the Philippines, Cambodia, Mongolia, Myanmar and Nepal. Agreement with Vietnam has been reached substantially, according to the official.
Besides, Pakistan and Japan in February signed a memorandum of cooperation in Tokyo on technical intern training programme. This is the first institutional arrangement between the two governments which will open up Japanese market for Pakistani workers.
The memorandum will play a vital role in contributing to the human resource and economic development of Pakistan as well as in promoting bilateral cooperation.
Mr Tokita said that the intern training programme was different from the skilled worker programme, and it would establish a direct link between the Pakistani and Japanese companies in the private sector. The two sides would liaise to connect the Pakistani interns with the Japanese companies.
For Pakistan, skilled workers living in Japan and in Pakistan were under consideration.
About the IT sector, the Japanese official stated that Pakistani skills in IT sector were much appreciated by the Japanese companies and business people.
All foreign skilled workers entering Japan for employment would have to pass the skills examination and the Japanese language test before signing the employment contract with the accepting organisation.
A skilled worker could stay in Japan for only five years and could not take along the family, the Japanese official added.
#Canada bringing talent from #Pakistan under Global Talent Stream pilot. Latest arrivals include #woman #software #engineer Hafsa Imran. More than 4000 highly skilled foreign workers have come under this program since its launch in 2017. #technology https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2019/05/21/immigration-program-aims-to-boost-canadas-high-tech-sector.html
For Hafsa Imran, the decision to come to Canada to work in the high-tech sector was a no-brainer.
“At this point no one in IT wants to go to the United States, and Canada is the natural choice,” said the 26-year-old software engineer, who arrived from Pakistan last September after she was brought in by her Toronto employer under the federal Global Talent Stream pilot program.
The program is aimed at attracting top talent to Canada’s tech industry by fast tracking approvals; the federal government can issue a work permit in less than two weeks, while in the non-migrant-friendly U.S. under President Donald Trump and in protectionist Europe, the process can take months.
“With a work permit, we can see if Canada is for us or not. If we like it, we have a pathway to stay as permanent residents,” Imran said. “It’s a win-win.”
According to the federal government, since the launch of the two-year program in 2017 to this past January, more than 1,000 Canadian companies have used it to hire more than 4,000 highly skilled foreign workers. The program received such positive feedback from employers and applicants that Ottawa announced in the March budget that it was making the pilot permanent.
As part of the application process, an employer is required to develop a company-specific plan that outlines their commitment to generate lasting benefits for Canada, including creating jobs for Canadians and investing in both training and skills development.
The program has spurred the creation of 21,000 new jobs for Canadians as well as 3,500 paid co-op positions, and these employers have invested $9.3 million into skills training for Canadians, according to Employment and Social Development Canada.
“In the global race to attract the investment of innovative companies, competitors in the European Union as well as the United States have considerably larger pools of talent and labour to draw from than we do in Canada,” said immigration department spokesperson Nancy Caron. “By facilitating the faster entry of top talent with unique skill sets and global experience, the goal is to help innovative companies in Canada grow, flourish and create more jobs for Canadians.”
Head hunters for Canadian high-tech companies said since Global Talent Stream was turned into a permanent program, they have noticed a surge of interest from foreign high-tech workers.
Global Skills Hub, a Toronto-based company that helps Canadian startups find international talent, said 249 overseas high-tech workers responded to its recruitment efforts in the month before the government’s March announcement. Since then, the number has shot up to 2,370.
Biggest recipients of Pakistani immigrants in 2016
US 19,313
Italy 14,735
Germany 12,215
Canada 11,335
UK 11,000
Australia 6,958
Spain 6,461
South Korea 2,724
Japan 1,486
France 1,350
Sweden 1,211
https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=MIG
About 100,000 Pakistanis migrated to OECD nations in 2016
Japan and Pakistan signed a memorandum of cooperation on Monday aimed at paving the way for skilled Pakistani workers to work in Japan, the Japanese Embassy said.
The cooperation framework agreement provides that “specified skilled workers” who pass a required examination and a basic Japanese-language comprehension test will be eligible for employment in Japan, according to a press release by the embassy.
It said Pakistan is among the countries from which Japan is looking to hire skilled workers, having already inked similar memoranda with Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Mongolia, Nepal, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.
The embassy also mentioned new statuses of residence created by the Japanese government for specific skilled workers, which became effective on April 1, and that the nation expects to hire 340,000 such laborers from across the world over the next five years.
The signing ceremony was witnessed by Kentaro Sonoura, a special adviser on foreign affairs to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan conveyed his appreciation of the deal in a meeting with Sonoura.
Govt set to launch Kamyab Pakistan Programme this month
https://www.dawn.com/news/1633071
Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin said: “We have finalised every aspect of this programme, and it would be launched in mid-July.” — PID/File
• 4m households to be supported
• Minister says around Rs400bn worth of interest-free loans to be offered
ISLAMABAD: The government has decided in principle to launch ‘Kamyab Pakistan Programme’ this month under which four million households would be assisted in various schemes.
The programme appears to be one of the major initiatives taken by the government for the poor segment of society ahead of next elections.
Talking to Dawn on Saturday, Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin said: “We have finalised every aspect of this programme, and it would be launched in mid-July.”
Detailing some of the features of the programme, he said it aimed at providing support to people in housing projects, skill development, health cards and interest-free loans for businesses and agri-services.
However, he made it clear that the targets would be achieved over a period of time and not in one year.
The minister said approximately Rs300 billion to Rs400bn interest-free loans would be given in the current fiscal year 2021-22, adding that the amount had also been budgeted to provide subsidy against interest-free loans.
The minister said ‘Kamyab Jawan’ would be a part of this programme.
About broadening of tax base, Mr Tarin said a strategy was being devised to bring 7.2 million people under the tax net. The strategy will be finalised soon, however, no taxpayer would be harassed, he added.
He said the point of sales programme would be extended to maximum traders in the current fiscal year.
Meanwhile, at a meeting of the Economic Advisory Council (EAC), Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin stressed the importance of long-term planning to achieve sustainable and all-inclusive economic growth.
He said Prime Minister Imran Khan had reconstituted the EAC after decades with an objective to draw up concrete proposals for sustainable economic growth through comprehensive and seamless planning and by taking all stakeholders on board.
During the third meeting of the EAC, four sub-groups gave their presentations on State-Owned Enterprises and Privatisation, Energy, Domestic Commerce and Price Stability.
Special Assistant on Finance and Revenue Dr Waqar Masood Khan gave a detailed presentation on price stability which included short-term, medium-term and long-term proposals to bring price stability in the country.
He drew a comparative analysis between prices prevailing in Pakistan and those in the entire region – both in current and historical perspectives.
Zaid Bashir, in his presentation on ‘Domestic Commerce Sector’, underlined the need to enrich and revive documented/integrated sectors and fully realise the true potential of e-commerce during the short term by bringing retailers into a more organised environment, ultimately benefitting the national exchequer.
Tax credit on enlistment of companies and to incentivise the induction of women in workforce were suggested as part of medium-term plans whereas financing facility for growth of the retailers and tax adjustability were suggested as part of a long-term strategy to promote domestic commerce sector.
In his presentation on energy (power) sector, Farooq Rehmatullah highlighted global, regional and local trends in the refining sectors.
The presentation also included recommendations for bringing in sustainable solutions to streamline operations from oil downstream to marketing sectors.
Mr Rehmatullah gave suggestions to deal with challenges faced by the LPG, exploration and production sectors and to explore renewable energy resources in Pakistan.
Sultan Ali Allana, meanwhile, spoke on ‘State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)’ while the privatisation secretary, Hassan Nasir Jamy, updated the EAC on privatisation.
The New Population Bomb
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/The-new-population-bomb
"A few years ago, we would get three times more recruits than we could accept," observed an employee with a staffing company in Vietnam that recruits workers for Japan's Technical Intern Training Program. "These days, we can barely get twice as many. Within five years, the number of people working away from home may start to drop."
Many Asian economies have experienced this phenomenon already, known in economics as the Lewis turning point, after British economist W. Arthur Lewis. Workers migrate from rural areas to cities, supporting economic growth by working for low wages. Eventually, growth stops because of rising wages and a shrinking labor force.
The answer, in many cases has been immigrants, which have contributed to growth in developed countries after population growth slowed. According to the U.N., there were 281 million international migrants in 2020, 1.6 times more than roughly 20 years earlier.
Border restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted how dependent some countries have become on foreign workers.
Without immigration, many advanced economies already cannot sustain their labor pool. In the U.K. after Brexit, the combination of immigration restrictions and the pandemic has led to a severe labor shortage. Before the pandemic, 12% of heavy truck drivers were from the European Union. However, drivers can no longer be hired from outside the country under the U.K.'s new standards. According to the British Road Haulage Association, the country faces a shortage of more than 100,000 commercial heavy truck drivers. Logistics companies are becoming desperate, raising hourly wages by 30%.
The lack of immigration may not be a temporary phenomenon. The countries with the most outbound immigrants are seeing their young populations decline. The number of Indians between the ages of 15 and 29 will peak in 2025. In China that cohort will drop by about 20% in the next 30 years.
The Philippines, one of the biggest labor-exporting countries in the world, where about 10% of the population is thought to work abroad, is also showing signs of reversing course to focus on domestic production. The country is increasing the amount of domestic contract work, such as call centers. The incoming amount of overseas remittances grew by over 7% year-on-year in the first half of the 2010s, but that slowed to 3% in 2018.
Some countries have already started trying to secure workers. Germany increased its acceptance of non-EU workers in 2020. In 2019, Australia increased the maximum length of working holidays from two years to three, on the condition that people work for a set period of time in sectors where there is a labor shortage, such as agriculture. Japan also is bringing in more foreign workers through the "specified skilled worker" system.
Economic forces may drive a new competition among nations for immigrants. One key is to become a "country of choice." "A policy of actively accepting immigrants means it is important to expand the options for foreign workers to settle and live in a country permanently," said Keizo Yamawaki, a professor at Meiji University in Tokyo who specializes in immigration policy.
Pakistan Labor Force Survey (LFS) 2020-21
https://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/labour_force/publications/lfs2020_21/LFS_2020-21_Report.pdf
Literacy rate goes up (62.4%, 62.8%) more in case of males (73.0%, 73.4%) than females
(51.5%, 51.9%). Area-wise rates suggest increase in rural (53.7%, 54.0%) and in urban
(76.1%, 77.3%). Male-female disparity seems to be narrowing down with the time span.
Literacy rate goes up in all provinces: KP (52.4%, 55.1%), Sindh (61.6%, 61.8%), Balochistan
(53.9%, 54.5%) and in Punjab (66.1%, 66.3%) during the comparative periods
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an average monthly wages of overall paid employees is of Rs.24028
per month while the median monthly wages is Rs. 18000 per month. . However, gender
disparities were obvious in the mean monthly wages gap between males and females of Rs.
4526 in favour of males. Based on median monthly wages, the gap, still in favour of males, is
Rs. 6,900. The above table also shows that irrespective of occupation both mean and median
monthly wages of males are higher than those of females
----------
4.20 Major Industry Divisions: Occupational Safety and Health
Mainly, the sufferers belong to agriculture (29.3%), construction (19.7%), manufacturing
(19.1%), wholesale & retail trade (13.7%) and transport/storage & communication (10.2%).
Female injuries in agriculture sectors are more than twice (61.7%) than that of male injuries
(26.3%). In manufacturing, female injuries (24.7%) and Community, social and personal services
(8.9%) are more than male injuries (18.6%) and (6.5%) respectively. Contrarily, males are
more vulnerable in the remaining groups. Comparative risk profiles run down for major
industries grouping while gain stream for manufacturing, transport, storage & communication
and community, social & personnel services.
The Japanese Ambassador to Pakistan Kuninori Matsuda told journalists last Friday that Japan would add Pakistan to the list of nine other world countries eligible to apply for Japan employment visas.
While the employment scheme was initially announced for 9 countries – Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Mongolia, Nepal, the Philippines, Cambodia, and China – Pakistan may soon become the 10 country part of the list.
According to Ambassador Matsuda, Japan is about to open the working visas for skilled workers from Pakistan, in a bid to tackle the aging and shrinking population of the country.
https://visaguide.world/news/japan/japan-to-offer-work-visas-to-skilled-pakistanis/
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Japan will make it easier to bring in talented foreign workers to regions outside the metropolitan areas by offering a fast-track path to permanent residency.
The government will revise a point system that grades individuals based on annual income, educational backgrounds and job experience. Those with high scores receive preferential treatment.
Now the government will add points for working at companies promoted by local communities. The government had rolled out the program on a trial basis in Hiroshima Prefecture and Kitakyushu and will now expand it nationwide.
The aim is to attract such specialists as researchers, engineers and business managers. Many companies in rural areas are facing a need for transformation in response to digitalization and decarbonization. In Hiroshima Prefecture, for example, semiconductor developers are trying to invite engineers.
An applicant whose point total reaches 70 will qualify for "highly specialized profession" status, and the period of stay in Japan required to obtain permanent residence will be shortened to three years from 10. At 80 points, only one year will be required. Parents and domestic servants will be allowed to come along, and spouses will be permitted to work.
Working in a local company will be worth 10 points and treated the same as having annual income of 10 million yen or more as a manager.
The number of workers certified as highly specialized reached 31,451 at the end of 2021. The number continue to rise despite the pandemic. By nationality, Chinese accounted for approximately 70% as of the end of 2020, followed by Indians at 6% and Americans at 5%.
Currently, daily arrivals are capped at 20,000 in response to COVID-19. The government is trying to lay the groundwork for stepped-up recruitment of foreign nationals in a post-coronavirus era.
It will also try to find smaller local companies seeking foreign talent with the help of the Japan External Trade Organization. In fiscal 2021, JETRO helped companies hire 180 people.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Japan-immigration/Japan-s-small-cities-to-draw-foreign-talent-with-fast-track-residency
Pakistan’s earnings from Italy in exports and remittances crossed $2 billion in Financial Year 2021-2022. In addition a substantial growth in FDI from Italy was also witnessed during the record breaking year.
https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/07/20/earnings-from-italy-in-exports-remittances-cross-2bn/
Italy became the seventh billion dollar export country for Pakistan during the year with a record growth of export volume to $1,146 million, while the remittances from Italy were also on the path to touch billion dollars soon with a total of $857 million during the year.
June 2022 also set the record for highest export volume ever to Italy in a single month crossing $144 million.
Italy posted the highest growth both in workers remittances among all countries with high numbers of Pakistani diaspora and for exports among the top ten export destinations.
This phenomenal growth in exports and remittances has come at a time when European economies in general and Italian economy in particular is slowing down and facing multiple challenges due to Ukraine war.
The exports to Italy of $1.15 billion in FY 2021-22 are 46% higher than the previous year, while the remittances are 41% higher for the same period than the last year.
While talking to media, Pakistan`s Ambassador to Italy, Jauhar Saleem paid glowing tributes to the Pakistani exporters for their initiative and hard work and to the Pakistani diaspora in Italy for standing by the country in a most challenging economic environment. He also shared that Pakistan had posted a record trade surplus of $573 million during the financial year 2021-22 which is 91% higher than the previous year.
According to the envoy, the value added sectors were the main drivers of the exceptional export growth with exports of plastic products increasing by 208%, sports goods 80%, leather 42%, home textiles 36% and garments 35%. The ambassador also shared that even as the pandemic hit global footwear market witnessed a contraction of shrank demand during the year, Pakistan’s exports of footwear to Italy increased by 19% in the year and Italy has become the 3rd largest export destination for Pakistani footwear. Italy is also the 5th largest destination for Pakistani home textiles and ranks No.6 in garments exports.
Ambassador Saleem also informed that that with the revival of market activities after removal of pandemic related restrictions in Italy, the Pakistan Embassy in Italy was further pacing up its activities to connect Pakistani businesses with Italian firms to sustain the exports and FDI growth. During the just concluded financial year, Pakistan received Italian investment in the sectors of food processing, chemicals, construction, leather, footwear, energy related equipment and IT.
The Ambassador also shared that some of the recent joint ventures between leading Pakistani and Italian footwear firms were enabling technology transfer, international marketing skills and supply chain management to Pakistani firms. Moreover, Italy was also providing technical support in agriculture sector especially related to olive and olive products. Similarly, Italy is supporting the efforts for reduction of risks of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) and hydrogeological hazards in mountainous areas by establishing an evidence-based assessment and monitoring system for glaciers in Gilgit Baltistan.
Ambassador Jauhar Saleem also informed the media that Italy has announced to allow 69,700 seasonal workers from selected countries in 2022 to come to Italy for work. Pakistan has already been included in the Italian Seasonal Work Visa Programme for 2022, which would offer many opportunities to our workers in agriculture and services sector to work in Italy. He added that Italian government has recently reduced the timelines for work visa processing which has been a long standing demand from Pakistani workers.
Germany is hoping to combat its shortage of skilled workers with a new ‘opportunity card’.
https://www.euronews.com/travel/2022/09/06/skilled-workers-are-in-demand-as-germany-tackles-labour-shortage-with-new-points-based-vis
The ‘chancenkarte’ will use a points system to enable workers with required skills to come to Germany more easily.
It is part of a strategy proposed by Labour Minister Hubertus Heil to address the country’s labour shortages, which is due to be presented to the government this autumn.
Every year, quotas will be set depending on which industries need workers. Three out of four of the following criteria must also be met to apply for the scheme:
A degree or vocational training recognised by Germany
Three years’ professional experience
Language skills or a previous stay in Germany
Under 35 years old
Currently, most non-EU citizens need to have a job offer before they can relocate to Germany. A visa for job seekers already exists, but the 'chancenkarte' is expected to make it easier and faster for people looking to find work in Germany.
Citizens of certain countries with visa agreements can already enter Germany for 90 days visa-free but are only permitted to take up short-term employment.
The opportunity card will allow people to come and look for a job or apprenticeship while in the country rather than applying from abroad. Applicants must be able to prove they can afford to pay their living expenses in the mean time.
The exact details of the scheme are yet to be formalised.
Why does Germany need to attract skilled workers?
This year, the shortage of skilled workers in Germany has risen to an all time high. Earlier this year, the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) found 1.74 million vacant positions throughout the country.
In July, staff shortages affected almost half of all companies surveyed by Munich-based research institute IFO, forcing them to slow down their operations.
From #Singapore to #Thailand, #Asia courts talent for post-#COVID #economic boost. Battle for high-skill workers is not just an #Asian phenomenon, but a global one. #UK has launched a new system called High Potential Individual visa for university grads.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia-Insight/From-Singapore-to-Thailand-Asia-courts-talent-for-post-COVID-boost
TOKYO/SINGAPORE/BANGKOK -- During the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Singapore tightly closed its borders. While many countries did the same, it was a sharp shock to the system for a city-state that had thrived as a hub for travel and as a magnet for foreign workers.
As some foreign nationals left, and entries were largely halted, Singapore's population dropped by 4.1% over the year through June 2021, to 5.45 million.
The latest data released on Sept. 27, however, shows nearly as swift a turnaround, thanks to a gradual lifting of restrictions. The population rebounded by 3.4% to 5.63 million, largely driven by workers in sectors like construction and shipyards -- the unsung labor that keeps the economy going.
Now, Singapore hopes to attract more highly skilled professionals with expertise and ideas that could jolt growth in the post-COVID era. "This is an age where talent makes all the difference to a nation's success," Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in his annual National Day Rally speech on Aug. 21, days before his government announced a new type of visa designed to lure such people. "We need to focus on attracting and retaining top talent, in the same way we focus on attracting and retaining investments."
The city-state is far from the only place that covets high-flyers. From Thailand to Taiwan, a competition is heating up to entice the best of the best, and to fill hiring gaps with people equipped to excel in today's pandemic-altered workplace.
Innovative sectors like digital technology and biotechnology are especially hungry for talent.
Singapore's latest carrot is called the Overseas Networks and Expertise (ONE) Pass, a new visa for high-skill professionals who earn at least 30,000 Singapore dollars ($20,800) a month. The program will allow people with these visas to stay at least five years and work at multiple organizations.
Thailand, meanwhile, began taking applications on Sept. 1 for a new visa that lets global professionals stay in the country for 10 years. The government hopes to bring in 1 million foreign nationals with the Long-Term Resident (LTR) visa, designed for those with skills in targeted sectors such as electric vehicles, biotechnology and defense.
Tourism-oriented Thailand, like Singapore, has been hit hard by travel disruptions. Both also have aging populations. While Singapore is expecting growth in the 3% to 4% range this year, the Asian Development Bank's latest outlook forecasts Thailand's growth rate at 2.9%, far below Indonesia's expected growth of 5.4%, Malaysia's 6% and Vietnam's 6.5%.
Malaysia, for its part, aims to attract wealthy investors with its new Premium Visa Program. The program, which began accepting applications on Saturday, allows people who can deposit 1 million ringgit (about $215,000) in the country and have an annual offshore income of around $100,000 to stay for up to 20 years. During that time, they can invest, run businesses and work.
As part of a broader move to bring in more human resources, Australia recently raised its annual permanent immigration cap to 195,000 for the current fiscal year, from 160,000.
UK Adds 226 New Visa Categories to Urgently Hire Skilled Workers
https://propakistani.pk/2023/05/18/uk-adds-226-new-visa-categories-to-urgently-hire-skilled-workers/
Exciting opportunities have emerged for Pakistani youth seeking employment abroad as the United Kingdom opens its doors to skilled workers from around the world, including Pakistan.
In response to the severe manpower shortage currently faced by Britain, the country has introduced a significant expansion in its immigration policies.
According to official reports, a total of 226 new immigration categories have been established, accompanied by a noteworthy increase in the minimum wage across all job categories.
This development marks the first time that professions such as police officers, journalists, judges, secret officers, barristers, lawyers, and flight pilots have been included in the immigration category. Furthermore, an additional 31 categories have been designated, encompassing diverse fields such as musicians, dancers, doctors, actors, and scientists.
The expanded opportunities extend beyond specific professions, as drivers, instructors, railway station assistants, air hostesses, cabin crew, veterinary doctors, and tailors are now eligible to pursue employment in the UK. Moreover, individuals with expertise in areas such as masonry, aircraft engineering, AC/fridge engineering, welding, charity work, and estate agency will also find potential avenues for relocation.
Students pursuing education in the UK can now benefit from the post-study work facility, which allows them to gain valuable work experience following the completion of their studies. Notably, highly-educated professionals can anticipate a substantial 20 percent increase in their remuneration, as highlighted in the official letter.
To facilitate the approved manpower shortage category, the UK government has taken steps to keep visa fees at a reasonable level, ensuring accessibility for individuals seeking employment opportunities in the country.
These progressive changes in the UK’s immigration policies provide an encouraging prospect for skilled workers from Pakistan and around the world. The reduced visa fees and the inclusion of a diverse range of professions reflect the British government’s commitment to addressing the pressing shortage of manpower while simultaneously welcoming talented individuals to contribute to the country’s workforce.
Aspiring professionals from Pakistan are encouraged to explore these newfound possibilities, which not only promise career growth but also cultural exchange and personal development. The opportunities available in the UK cater to a wide spectrum of skills and talents, fostering an environment where individuals can thrive and make significant contributions to their chosen fields.
With these favorable policy revisions, Pakistanis can now embark on a transformative journey, utilizing their expertise to build successful careers and establish meaningful connections in the United Kingdom.
The UK has become one of the world’s most accepting places for foreign workers, according to a survey in 24 nations revealing a sharp increase in British acceptance of economic migration.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/feb/23/uk-now-among-most-accepting-countries-for-foreign-workers-survey-finds
Shortfall of 330,000 workers in UK due to Brexit, say thinktanks
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People in the UK emerged as less likely to think that when jobs are scarce employers should give priority to people of their own country than those in Norway, Canada, France, Spain, the US, Australia and Japan. Only Germany and Sweden were more open on that question.
In what the study’s authors described as “an extraordinary shift”, only 29% of people in the UK in 2022 said priority over jobs should go to local people, compared with 65% when the same question was asked in 2009.
The findings come as employers call for more migration to help fill more than 1m vacancies, and after the prime minister appointed the anti-immigration firebrand Lee Anderson as deputy chair of the Conservative party. He has called people arriving in small boats on the south coast “criminals” and called for them to be “sent back the same day”. Police have been deployed to hotels where asylum seekers are being housed amid violent protests by anti-immigration activists.
“It was unthinkable a decade ago that the UK would top any international league table for positive views of immigration,” said Prof Bobby Duffy, the director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London, who shared the findings from the latest round of the survey exclusively with the Guardian and the BBC. “But that’s where we are now, with the UK the least likely, from a wide range of countries, to say we should place strict limits on immigration or prohibit it entirely.”
The UK ranked fourth out of 24 nations for the belief that immigrants have a very or quite good impact on the development of the country – ahead of Norway, Spain, the US and Sweden.
One factor in the shift in opinions on the question of “British jobs for British workers” may be that in 2009 the UK was in a deep recession, with more than double today’s unemployment, whereas today the economy suffers from a worker shortage, with 1.1m vacancies in the UK, 300,000 more than before the pandemic.
Robert Jenrick, the immigration minister, last year urged employers to look to the British workforce in the first instance and “get local people”, although the government has widened visa programmes for seasonal workers and care staff.
Duffy said the findings showed that “it’s time to listen more carefully to public attitudes”. He said: “Politicians often misread public opinion on immigration. In the 2000s, Labour government rhetoric and policy on this issue was more relaxed than public preferences, and arguably they paid the price – but the current government is falling into the reverse trap.”
People in the UK are now the least likely of the 24 countries that participate in the World Values Survey study to think immigration increases unemployment, and second from top in thinking that immigrants fill important job vacancies.
They are very likely to say immigration boosts cultural diversity, and very unlikely to think immigration comes with crime and safety risks. However, more people in the UK think immigration leads to “social conflict” than in several other countries, including Canada, Japan and China.
Why Americans Are Having Fewer Babies - WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-americans-are-having-fewer-babies-3be7f6a9
The number of babies born in the U.S. started plummeting 15 years ago and hasn’t recovered since. What looked at first like a temporary lull triggered by the 2008 financial crisis has stretched into a prolonged fertility downturn. Provisional monthly figures show that there were about 3.66 million babies born in the U.S. last year, a decline of 15% since 2007, even though there are 9% more women in their prime childbearing years.
The decline has demographers puzzled and economists worried. America’s longstanding geopolitical advantages, they say, are underpinned by a robust pool of young people. Without them, the U.S. economy will be weighed down by a worsening shortage of workers who can fill jobs and pay into programs like Social Security that care for the elderly. At the heart of the falling birthrate is a central question: Do American women simply want fewer children? Or are life circumstances impeding them from having the children that they desire?
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To maintain current population levels, the total fertility rate—a snapshot of the average number of babies women have over their lifetime—must stay at a “replacement rate” of 2.1 children per woman. In 2021, the U.S. rate was 1.66. Had fertility rates stayed at their 2007 peak, the U.S. would now have 9.6 million more kids, according to Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire.
Federal agencies are treating the slump like a temporary downturn. The Social Security Administration’s board of trustees projects that the total fertility rate will slowly climb to 2 by 2056 and hold there until the end of the century. Yet it’s been over a decade since fertility rates reached that level. Last year there were 2.8 workers for every Social Security recipient. That ratio is projected to shrink to 2.2 by 2045, roughly two-thirds what it was in 2000.
Some other developed countries are in a far deeper childbearing trough than the U.S. In South Korea, the total fertility rate hit a world record low of 0.84 in 2020 and has since sagged to 0.78. Italy’s rate slid to 1.24 last year. China’s population fell in 2022 for the first time in decades because its fertility rate has been far below the replacement rate for years. Its two-century reign as the world’s most populous country is expected to end this year when India overtakes it, if it hasn’t already.
In a recent note to clients, Neil Howe, a demographer at Hedgeye Risk Management, pointed to a World Bank report showing that the 2020s could be a second consecutive “lost decade” for global economic growth, in large part because of worsening demographics. By 2026 or 2027, he wrote, the growth rate of the working-age population in the entire high-income and emerging-market world will turn from slightly positive to slightly negative, reversing a durable driver of economic growth since the Industrial Revolution.
This shift will make the U.S. more dependent on immigration to supply enough workers to keep the economy humming. Immigrants accounted for 80% of U.S. population growth last year, census figures show, up from 35% just over a decade ago. Yet the number of young immigrant women coming to the U.S. has diminished, Johnson said, and the decline in fertility has been greatest among Hispanics.
Having fewer children has already changed the social fabric of the country’s schools, neighborhoods and churches. J.P. De Gance, president and founder of Communio, a nonprofit that helps churches encourage marriage, said that lower marriage and birth rates are one of the largest drivers of the decline in religious affiliation that’s left pews empty across the country. That matters for the whole community, De Gance said, because churches give lonely people a place to form friendships, as well as feeding hungry people and running schools that fill gaps in public education. “When that’s diminished, the entire culture’s diminished,” he said.
Indians and Pakistanis in Australia as per 2016 Census
Pakistanis
People 61,915
Male 37,720
Female 24,195
Australian citizen 42.3%
Not an Australian citizen 56.0%
https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2016/7106_0
Indians
People 455,388
Male 245,416
Female 209,972
Australian citizen 48.1%
Not an Australian citizen 50.8%
https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2016/7103_0
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