India's GDP Shrank to $1.84 Trillion in 2012-13 in US Dollar Terms

Sharp fall in Indian currency against the US dollar and slower economic growth have caused India's GDP for Fiscal  Year 2012-13 to shrink in US $ terms to $1.84 trillion from $1.87 trillion a year earlier. The Indian rupee has plummeted from 47.80 in 2012 to 54.30 to a US dollar in 2013, according to Business Standard. Since this report was published in Business Standard newspaper, Indian rupee has declined further against the US dollar to Rs. 59.52 today. At this exchange rate, India's GDP is down to $1.68 trillion, about $200 billion less than it was in  Fiscal 2011-12.

Pakistan GDP Per Capita 1990-2012 Source: World Bank

Indian GDP Growth Rates 2004-2013

India's economy grew by 5.0% in 2012-13,  its slowest annual rate in a decade, down from 6.2% last fiscal year. In the fourth quarter ending in March, gross domestic product grew by 4.8% year-over-year, slightly higher than the previous quarter when it expanded by 4.5%, according to Indian government data.
In the January-March quarter, the manufacturing sector increased output by just 2.6%, while production in the country's mines shrank by 3.1%.

Global ratings agency Standard and Poor's warned in May that India faces at least "a one-in-three" chance of losing its prized sovereign grade rating amid new threats to economic growth and reforms. India's BBB-minus investment rating is already the lowest among BRICS and cutting it to "junk status" would raise the country's hefty borrowing costs. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) this week lowered its projection of India's GDP growth this year to 5.3%, from 5.9% earlier.

Meanwhile,  Pakistan's economy continues to struggle with its annual GDP rising just 3.6% to $252 billion ($242 billion at Rs. 100 to a USD exchange rate)  in fiscal 2012-13, according to Economic Survey of Pakistan 2012-13 estimates based on 9 months data. The country is facing militancy and energy shortages impacting its economy.

Other world economies have also slowed down. US is slowly recovering but Europe is still struggling. BRIC growth rates are also slowing. China is slowing with its workforce aging and shrinking. In India, the slow pace of reform is hurting its growth, and Brazil and Russia are struggling with slowing demand for their export commodities.

Africa has replaced Asia as the continent with most of the world's fastest growing economies, according to The Economist magazine. The top 10 fastest growing economies in the world are: Macau, Mongolia, Libya, Gambia, Angola, Bhutan, China, Timor-Leste, Iraq and Mozambique.

China and the US , the two largest economies, still continue to be the bright spots and the main locomotives of the world economy, offering hope of global economic recovery.

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Rasoolpur: A Model Village in Pakistan With 100% Literacy and No Crimes

Pakistan's sensational media coverage projects only the dark side of the country with a constant stream of news stories of militancy, illiteracy and deprivation. But BBC Urdu took a road less traveled and found a small village of Rasoolpur in the Punjab which demolishes some of the worst stereotypes of the country.

Here's how BBC describes it:

دور دراز علاقوں سے ایک تو خبر ہی مشکل سے آتی ہے۔آتی بھی ہے تو اکثر بری خبر ہی ہوتي ہے۔ شايد سی لیے رسول پور جیسے گاؤں، 99 فیصد شرح خواندگی اور زیرو جرائم کا ریکارڈ رکھنے کے باوجود سنسنسی زدہ میڈیا کے لیے خبر کا درجہ نہیں رکھتے۔۔

Translation: News from remote areas of Pakistan does not easily reach the urban press but when it does, any good news like 100% literacy and zero crime in Rasoolpur village is discarded by the sensational media as not newsworthy.

Rasoolpur is a village with a population of just 2000. Most of its residents are ethnic Baloch whose ancestors migrated from Pakistan's Balochistan province to Southern Punjab. It is located in Rajanpur district in the Seraiki speaking region. Its literacy rate is near 100%.  The United Nations defines literacy as the ability to sign one's name. But Rasoolpuris hold themselves to a much higher standard; they have all their children finish high school.

There are no children out of school. It is crime-free. It is clean. There are two high schools, one for the girls and other for the boys.

Here's a BBC Urdu video about Rasoolpur village:

Haq's Musings- Rasoolpur- A Model Village in... by xlnc

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x4kj694

travelog rasoolpur. from sharjil baloch on Vimeo.

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Two Pakistani Start-ups Accepted in Silicon Valley Immersion Program

Lahore-based Groopic and Islamabad-based Tunacode have been accepted to be part of this summer’s Blackbox Connect program in Silicon Valley.

Founded by Pakistanis, both companies are start-ups with innovative products whose founding teams are looking to live, learn and network for two weeks at an Atherton mansion this summer from July 15 to 26, 2013.  These young entrepreneurs are a reflection of Pakistan's growing human capital.

This year's summer program of Blackbox Connect is supported by Google.

Groopic is an application that helps put the photographer back into photos with his or her buddies. Eyedeus, the company behind Groopic, emerged from the first batch of companies at Plan9, the Punjab government’s incubator which is named after an operating system project at the Bell Labs in the 1980s.

Tunacode specializes in optimizing complex software to graphic processing units (GPUs).

The two Pakistani companies are among eight non-US start-ups selected to participate this summer by Google for Entrepreneurs partner programs around the world. The remaining six companies are Avocarrot (UK), EgzoTech (Poland), Inpris (Israel), Instabug (Egypt), Melusyn (France) and MyDoorHandle (South Africa).  Here's how Blackbox Connect describes the program:

"Founders will come to Silicon Valley and live at the Blackbox Mansion for the two weeks, where they will have the opportunity to live and collaborate with like-minded entrepreneurs from all around the world and take part in an intense agenda of meetings and workshops with entrepreneurs, investors, experts and executives. Accepted startups must have launched a technology based MPV and gathered feedback from early adopter/customers. Ideally - but not required - a startup should have raised some investment capital, have a team between 3 to 20 people and have a product or service that can be launched globally".

Here's the curriculum for this year's program:

1. Interfacing with an Investor

Top Ten Mistakes Made in Business Plans
Short Building Elevator Pitching Preparation and Workshop
Perfecting Your Investor Pitch
How to Hold an Investor Meeting
Recruiting and Leveraging an Advisory Board

2. Basics of Venture Capital Investment Options

Founder Vesting Equity
Stock Options for Startup Founders
Introduction to Equity Term Sheets

3. Born-Global Startups

Building the Core Team, Recruiting and Scaling
UX-based Branding
Raising Money in Silicon Valley
First Hand Founders Success Stories
Leveraging Social Marketing
Setting up official US presence for international startup
Legal & Financial Issues of Born-Global Startups

4. Quality Networking Events

Dinners at Blackbox Mansion with local SV community members
Attend other select happening events in Silicon Valley
Demo/Pitch event to investors followed by dinner event

I believe the exposure to Silicon Valley start-up culture via the Blackbox Connect's immersion program can help founders of participating companies to emulate the success of some of the big-name world-renowned companies that have spawned the technology revolution sweeping the world.

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India's Hyphenation Debate: India-Pakistan or India-China?

US Secretary of State John Kerry's current visit to India has aroused Indian media's anger with the Times of India  protesting that the secretary has "sought to draw parity between India and Pakistan".

In an article titled “Kerry’s soft line on Pakistan a sore subject,” Indian newspaper The Hindu complained: “Departing from his predecessor Hillary Clinton’s line of commiserating with the victims of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, he opted to sympathize with the victims of the Uttarakhand flash floods instead.”

Global Poverty Rates 

For the last several years, Indian elites have been quite obsessed about de-hyphenating their country from Pakistan and fusing it with China by inventing such words as "Chindia". However, it's also clear from the Indian media reactions to Kerry's words that India's rivalry with Pakistan inflames far more passion in India than does India's self-proclaimed competition with China.

Robert Kaplan of Stratfor questions the Indian policy elite's obsession with hyphenation with China in a recent piece as follows:

Indian elites can be obsessed with China, even as Chinese elites think much less about India. This is normal. In an unequal rivalry, it is the lesser power that always demonstrates the greater degree of obsession. For instance, Greeks have always been more worried about Turks than Turks have been about Greeks. China's inherent strength in relation to India is more than just a matter of its greater economic capacity, or its more efficient governmental authority.

Kaplan goes on to say the following about India-Pakistan hyphenation:

The best way to gauge the relatively restrained atmosphere of the India-China rivalry is to compare it to the rivalry between India and Pakistan. India and Pakistan abut one another. India's highly populated Ganges River Valley is within 480 kilometers (300 miles) of Pakistan's highly populated Indus River Valley. There is an intimacy to India-Pakistan tensions that simply does not apply to those between India and China. That intimacy is inflamed by a religious element: Pakistan is the modern incarnation of all of the Muslim invasions that have assaulted Hindu northern India throughout history. And then there is the tangled story of the partition of the Asian subcontinent itself to consider -- India and Pakistan were both born in blood together.


It's a rarely acknowledged  fact in India that most Indians are far more obsessed with Pakistan than any other country. But the ruling dynasty's Rahul Gandhi, the man widely expected to be India's future prime minister, did confirm it, according to a news report by America's NPR Radio. "I actually feel we give too much time in our minds to Pakistan," said Rahul Gandhi at a leadership meeting of  the Indian National Congress in 2009.

The rise of the new media and  the emergence of the "Internet Hindus", a term coined by Indian journalist Sagarika Ghose, has removed all doubts about many Indians' Pakistan obsession. She says the “Internet Hindus are like swarms of bees". "They come swarming after you"  pouncing on any mention of Pakistan or Muslims.

Here's a video demolishing the Chindia myth:


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What is Nawaz Sharif's Counter-Terrorism Strategy in Pakistan?

After about a month-long lull, terrorists and insurgents have struck in Pakistan yet again, killing dozens of people in multiple attacks.  These attacks have brought in sharp focus the following questions:

1. Does Nawaz Sharif government have a pro-active strategy to deal with terrorists and insurgents?  Or will it continue to operate in a reactive mode like its predecessors in the last 5 years?

2. If there is a strategy, is it entirely dependent on stopping US drone attacks? Or the success of peace talks with the Taliban which do not yet appear to be in sight?

3. What if the Pakistani government is unable to stop US drone attacks? Would it then throw its hands up and allow the Taliban and their affiliates to continue to slaughter innocent Pakistanis? Is it not the responsibility of the Pakistani government to protect all of its citizens?

4. Have the PML(N) leaders forgotten the lessons of Swat where ANP negotiated with the Taliban and agreed to allow them to run the region under their "Nizam-e-Adl"? Do they remember that the military had to eventually intervene to clear Swat of the Taliban to achieve peace there?

5. Will the history of the last 5 years repeat itself with the loss of tens of thousands of more innocent lives?

6. The US is talking with the Taliban to ensure their troops withdrawal from Afghanistan by 2014. Can we honestly compare US-Taliban talks with Pak-Taliban talks as desired by Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan? Are Nawaz and Imran planning to withdraw Pakistan from Pakistan (if that's possible) and hand over control to the TTP?

For a lively discussion of the above, please watch this video:



Ziarat Residency, Quetta attacks on Hazara, Imran Khan’s parliament speech, Drone Attacks and Dialog with the Taliban from WBT TV on Vimeo.

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Pakistan to Beg and Borrow Billions More to Spend in Budget 2013-14

Pakistan's proposed federal budget 2013-14 includes $36 billion in spending with deficit financing of $16 billion. Of this $16 billion, over $5 billion will be borrowed by the federal government to pay the power sector to settle the so-called circular debt.

Heavy Tax Burden on the Poor:

Direct taxes make up only about 3.5% of Pakistan's federal revenue. The rest comes from indirect taxation, mainly consumption tax, making Pakistan's tax policy among the most regressive in the world. The low-income people who have to spend almost all of their incomes will be paying tax on their entire incomes while the high-income groups who spend a small percentage of their income will pay little in taxes.

While the general sales tax (GST), a consumption tax, has been raised from 16% to 17%, vast swaths of the economy have been left out of the tax net. A major weakness in public finances is the lack of fiscal effort by the provinces. With some of the largest segments of economic activity such as agriculture, real estate, and services in the provincial domain, the provincial tax receipts total an abysmal 0.7 percent of GDP.

To make up the difference between revenue and spending, the government is forced to beg or borrow. It fosters foreign aid dependence , limits national sovereignty and burdens Pakistan's future generations with debt that they will have to repay.

Pakistan needs to revamp its entire taxation system to make it more equitable and progressive with the rich paying a larger share of the taxes and to raise the tax-gdp ratio from the current 9% to at least 15%.

Resolving Energy Crisis:

Paying off $5 billion to the power sector will do little to resolve load-shedding. The previous government paid $14.8 billion to the power sector and the problem of load-shedding only got worse.

What is needed is to clearly identify and fix the root cause which is the flawed finances of the sector. The cost of electricity production needs to come down substantially and the revenue from bill collection needs to increase significantly to bring finances into balance. The fuel mix needs to change to lower the costs. And there needs to be serious law enforcement done to reduce power theft and collect payments  for the use of electricity. In addition, the IPP contracts need to be renegotiated to link payments to fuel efficiency and power generation capacity utilization.

Pakistan needs a long-term and comprehensive energy policy to assure availability of cheap and abundant energy to fuel economic growth and prosperity in the country.

Since the middle of the 18th century, the Industrial Revolution has transformed the world. Energy has become the life-blood of modern economies. Energy-hungry machines are now doing more and more of the work at much higher levels of productivity than humans and animals who did it in pre-industrial era. Every modern, industrial society in history has gone through a 20-year period where there was extremely large investment in the power sector, and availability of ample electricity made the transition from a privilege of an urban elite to something every family would have. If Pakistan wishes to join the industrialized world, it will have to do the same by having a comprehensive energy policy and large investments in the power sector. Failure to do so would condemn Pakistanis to a life of poverty and backwardness.

 Please watch the following video discussion on the subject of Pakistan's budget 2013-14 and resolution of power crisis:



First budget of new Nawaz Sharif government, no relief for poor; Energy Crisis; Reliance on oil from WBT TV on Vimeo.

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US EIA Estimates Pak Shale Oil Reserves at 9.1 Billion Barrels

Pakistan has more shale oil than Canada, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report released on June 13, 2013.

The US EIA report estimates Pakistan's total shale oil reserves at 227 billion barrels of which 9.1 billion barrels are technically recoverable with today's technology.  In addition, the latest report says Pakistan has 586 trillion cubic feet of shale gas of which 105 trillion cubic feet (up from 51 trillion cubic feet reported in 2011) is technically recoverable with current technology.

The top ten countries by shale oil reserves include  Russia (75 billion barrels), United States (58 billion barrels), China (32 billion barrels), Argentina (27 billion barrels), Libya (26 billion barrels), Venezuela (13 billion barrels), Mexico (13 billion barrels), Pakistan (9.1 billion barrels), Canada (8.8 billion barrels) and Indonesia (7.9 billion barrels).

Pakistan's current  annual consumption of oil is only 150 million barrels. Even if it more than triples in the next few years, the 9.1 billion barrels currently technically recoverable would be enough for over 18 years. Similarly, even if Pakistan current gas demand of 1.6 trillion cubic feet triples in the next few years, it can be met with 105 trillion cubic feet of  technically recoverable shale gas for more than 20 years. And with newer technologies on the horizon, the level of technically recoverable shale oil and gas resources could increase substantially in the future.

Source: US EIA Report 2013

As can be seen in the shale resource map, most of Pakistan's shale oil and gas resources are located in the lower Indus basin region, particularly in Ranikot and Sembar shale formations. 

Source: US EIA Report 2013

Since the middle of the 18th century, the Industrial Revolution has transformed the world. Energy has become the life-blood of modern economies. Energy-hungry machines are now doing more and more of the work at much higher levels of productivity than humans and animals who did it in pre-industrial era. Every modern, industrial society in history has gone through a 20-year period  where there was extremely large investment in the power sector, and availability of ample electricity made the transition from a privilege of an urban elite to something every family would have. If Pakistan wishes to join the industrialized world, it will have to do the same by having a comprehensive energy policy and large investments in the power sector. Failure to do so would condemn Pakistanis to a life of poverty and backwardness. 

 

The availability of large domestic shale oil and gas expands the opportunity to reduce Pakistan's dependence on imports to overcome the current energy crisis and to fuel the industrial economy.  But it'll only be possible with high priority given to investments in developing the energy sector of the country. 

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Pak Cricket Needs World Class Batting Coach and Top Psychologist

Pakistani national cricket team's horrible performance at the 2013 ICC Champions Trophy is uncharacteristic for a side widely regarded by experts as one of the most talented in the world. The latest losses have unleashed a torrent of anger in Pakistan with demands for heads at PCB to roll yet again.

For some in Pakistan, the understandable anger has turned into total insanity. For example, former Pakistani cricketer Aamer Suhail has laid the entire blame at the feet of Imran Khan who led Pakistan to its sole victory in ICC World Cup in 1992.

It's unfortunate that Pakistan's losses at international cricket competitions do not force a sober assessment of the team's strengths and weaknesses. Rather, the so-called "experts" resort to self-serving analyses.

 In my view, a dispassionate review of the team's record would bring out the following:

1. Pakistan's bowling attack is among the most potent in the world and it should be maintained and enhanced.

2. Pakistan's batting is among the weakest in the world and it needs serious improvement.

3. Pakistani players, particularly batsmen, collapse under pressure.

The best way to move forward is to do the following:

1. Hire a world-class batting coach who has a track record as a super batsman but also knows how to effectively coach a young side. This search for such a coach needs to be world-wide and selection done in a professional manner.

2. Bring on board a world-renowned sports psychologist to increase mental toughness and improve the overall temperament and tenacity of the players to perform well under pressure. The anger for the loss should not be directed against individual players. Instead, the passion should be channelized to improve the effectiveness of the team as a cohesive unit.

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Massive Growth in Electrical Connections Worsened Demand-Supply Gap in Pakistan

Pakistan has made remarkable progress in electrification of its towns and villages both in absolute terms and as percentage of population over the past two decades, according to a recently-released report titled "Global Tracking Framework" issued jointly by the World Bank and the International Energy Agency. This report at least partly explains the dramatic increase in demand-supply gap and consequent increase in load-shedding in Pakistan.

The report says that 60 percent of Pakistanis had access to electricity in 1990, 80 percent in 2000 and 91 percent in 2010. By 2010, 88 percent people of rural and 98 percent of the country's urban population had access to electricity. Comparable figures in India are as follows: 51% in 1990, 62% 2000, and 75% in 2010. 93% of urban and 67% of rural Indians had access to electricity in 2010.

The report identifies top 20 countries with the largest number of people to have gained access to electricity over the past 20 years. Of these, 12 are in Asia. They brought electrical service to 1.3 billion people  (of the 1.7 billion electrified globally between 1990 and 2010), 283 million more than their population increase. The most impressive expansion of electrification occurred in India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The advances in these populous countries are of enormous significance for achievement of the global universal access target.

The detailed World Bank report identified India as the most deprived country in terms of access to energy: as many as 306.2 million of its people are still without this basic utility. The remaining 19 nations lacking access to energy, with the number of deprived people is as follows: Nigeria (82.4 million), Bangladesh (66.4 million), Ethiopia (63.9 million), Congo (55.9 million), Tanzania (38.2 million), Kenya (31.2 million), Sudan (30.9 million), Uganda (28.5 million), Myanmar (24.6 million), Mozambique (19.9 million), Afghanistan (18.5 million), North Korea (18 million), Madagascar (17.8 million), the Philippines (15.6 million), Pakistan (15 million), Burkina Faso (14.3 million), Niger (14.1 million), Indonesia (14 million) and Malawi 13.6 million).

In addition to access to electricity, the report also details access to non-solid fuels like oil and natural gas (fuels other than firewood, dung or charcoal commonly used in poor countries for cooking) as a key parameter of progress in terms of energy. Such access helps reduce environmental pollution and associated human health hazards.

The goal of universal access to modern energy depends critically on  the efforts of 20 high-impact countries which include Bangladesh, China, India and Pakistan. Together, these 20 countries account for more than two thirds of the population currently living without electricity (0.9 billion people) and more than four-fifths of the global population without access to non-solid fuels (2.4 billion people). In terms of electricity, India has by far the largest access deficit; exceeding 300 million people, while for non-solid cooking fuel, India and China each have access deficits exceeding 600 million people.

This tracking report is part of UN's Sustainable Energy For All (SE4ALL) Initiative launched in 2012.  The initiative recognizes the importance of universal access to modern energy as a key part of empowering the poor and lifting large numbers of people out of poverty and deprivation.

For the newly-connected rural poor in Pakistan, even a couple of hours of electricity a day is better than no electricity all. Even a brief period of service enables them to charge up their cell phones and watch a little bit of television to stay informed and connected.These small things significantly improve the quality of life of those who lived without any electrical connections in the last decade or two. Eventually one hopes that the energy crisis will be resolved to  bring supply and demand in better balance.

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