In June 2007, the power cuts in Pakistan lasted no more than 3 or 4 hours a day. Today, in extremely hot weather, Pakistanis have to endure without electricity for 8 to 10 hours a day. Industrial production is suffering, exports are down, jobs are being lost, and the national economy is in a downward spiral. By all indications, the power crisis in Pakistan is getting worse than ever.
Extended Load-shedding:
Extended electricity load shedding in Karachi's five major industrial estates is causing losses in billions of rupees as the production activity has fallen by about 50 per cent. KESC, Karachi's power supply utility, is dealing with with a shortfall of around 700MW against a total demand of 2200MW. Almost all forms of power generation from fossil fuel-fired thermal to hydroelectric to nuclear are down from a year ago. As a result of the daily rolling blackouts, the economy, major exports and overall employment are also down and the daily wage earners are suffering. The KESC and PEPCO owe more than Rs. 10b to the independent power producers (IPPs) and paying them will help bring them into full operation and ease the crisis at least partially.
Electricity Demand:
As discussed in an earlier post, Pakistan's current installed capacity is around 19,845 MW, of which around 20% is hydroelectric. Much of the rest is thermal, fueled primarily by gas and oil. Pakistan Electric Power Company PEPCO blames independent power producers (IPPs) for the electricity crisis, as they have been able to give PEPCO only 3,800 MW on average out of 5,800 MW of confirmed capacity. Most of the IPPs are running fuel stocks below the required minimum of 21 days. IPPs complain that they are not being paid on time by PEPCO.
Per capita energy consumption of the country is estimated at 14 million Btu, which is about the same as India's but only a fraction of other industrializing economies in the region such as Thailand and Malaysia, according to the US Dept of Energy 2006 report. To put it in perspective, the world average per capita energy use is about 65 million BTUs and the average American consumes 352 million BTUs. With 40% of the Pakistani households that have yet to receive electricity, and only 18% of the households that have access to pipeline gas, the energy sector is expected to play a critical role in economic and social development. With this growth comes higher energy consumption and stronger pressures on the country’s energy resources. At present, natural gas and oil supply the bulk (80 percent) of Pakistan’s energy needs. However, the consumption of those energy sources vastly exceeds the supply. For instance, Pakistan currently produces only 18.3 percent of the oil it consumes, fostering a dependency on expensive, imported oil that places considerable strain on the country’s financial position, creating growing budget deficits. On the other hand, hydro, coal, wind and solar are perhaps underutilized and underdeveloped today, as Pakistan has ample potential to exploit these resources.
The country's creaky and outdated electricity infrastructure loses over 30 percent of generated power in transit, more than seven times the losses of a well-run system, according to the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank; and a lack of spare high-voltage grid capacity limits the transmission of power from hydroelectric plants in the north to make up for shortfalls in the south.
Gilani Government's Response:
Neelum-Jhelum hydroelectric project, first formally announced by former Minister Omar Ayub on June 10, 2007, is finally starting in earnest under the PPP government of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani. This hydro project is expected to add 963MW power generating capacity at a cost US $2.2 billion, according to Business Wire. Prior to this project, the new Pakistani Prime Minister signed a deal with a Chinese company, Dong Fong, for setting up 525 MW thermal power plant with an investment of $450 million at Chichoki Mallian (Sheikhupura). Both of these projects are expected help partially close the 3000 MW gap that exists today between supply and demand in Pakistan.
Green Energy Opportunities:
In response to the warnings of energy crisis in Pakistan, President Musharraf's government recognized the need and the potential for renewable alternatives and, in 2006, created Alternative Energy Development Board to pursue renewable energy. In particular, AEDB is focusing on wind and solar as viable alternatives. AEDB is facilitating setting up of small renewable energy projects in line with government’s policy of promoting the use of renewable energy in the country’s power generation mix, says the board’s chief executive officer Mr Arif Alauddin. AEDB has recently issued Makwind Power Private Ltd (MPPL) a Letter of Intent for the setting up of 50MW wind farm at Nooriabad in Sindh, as part of its efforts to facilitate 700 MW wind energy by 2010.
According to data published by Miriam Katz of Environmental Peace Review, Pakistan is fortunate to have something many other countries do not, which are high wind speeds near major centers. Near Islamabad, the wind speed is anywhere from 6.2 to 7.4 meters per second (between 13.8 and 16.5 miles per hour). Near Karachi, the range is between 6.2 and 6.9 (between 13.8 and 15.4 miles per hour). Pakistan is also fortunate that in neighboring India, the company Suzlon manufactures wind turbines, thus decreasing transportation costs. Working with Suzlon, Pakistan can begin to build its own wind-turbine industry and create thousands of new jobs while solving its energy problems. Suzlon turbines start to turn at a speed of 3 meters per second. Vestas, which is one of the world's largest wind turbine manufacturers, has wind turbines that start turning at a speed of 4 meters per second. In addition to Karachi and Islamabad, there are other areas in Pakistan that receive a significant amount of wind.
In only the Balochistan and Sindh provinces, sufficient wind exists to power every coastal village in the country. There also exists a corridor between Gharo and Keti Bandar that alone could produce between 40,000 and 50,000 megawatts of electricity, says Ms. Katz who has studied and written about alternative energy potential in South Asia. Given this surplus potential, Pakistan has much to offer Asia with regards to wind energy. In recent years, the government has completed several projects to demonstrate that wind energy is viable in the country. In Mirpur Sakro, 85 micro turbines have been installed to power 356 homes. In Kund Malir, 40 turbines have been installed, which power 111 homes. The Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) has also acquired 18,000 acres for the installation of more wind turbines.
In addition to high wind speeds near major centers as well as the Gharo and Keti Bandar corridor, Pakistan is also very fortunate to have many rivers and lakes. Wind turbines that are situated in or near water enjoy an uninterrupted flow of wind, which virtually guarantees that power will be available all the time. Within towns and cities, wind speeds can often change quickly due to the presence of buildings and other structures, which can damage wind turbines. In addition, many people do not wish for turbines to be sited near cities because of noise, though these problems are often exaggerated. Wind turbines make less noise than an office and people comfortably carry on conversations while standing near them.
As is painfully evident in summers, Pakistan is an exceptionally sunny country. If 0.25% of Balochistan was covered with solar panels with an efficiency of 20%, enough electricity would be generated to cover all of Pakistani demand. In all provinces the AEDB has created 100 solar homes in order to exploit solar energy.
Solar energy makes much sense for Pakistan for several reasons: firstly, 70% of the population lives in 50,000 villages that are very far away from the national grid, according to a report by the Solar Energy Research Center (SERC). Connecting these villages to the national grid would be very costly, thus giving each house a solar panel would be cost efficient and would empower people both economically and socially.
Coal Power and Hydroelectricity
In addition to high winds and abundant solar potential, Pakistan has the fifth largest coal deposits in the world. The negative environmental effects of coal burning can be be mitigated by making use of the latest clean coal technologies that limit noxious gas exhaust into the atmosphere. 
Pakistan also has some deposits of natural gas in the Potwar Plateau region and near the border between Balochistan and Sindh, but these are likely to disappear within 20 years.
Because of the presence of many rivers and lakes, it makes sense for Pakistan to build dams to support water management and electricity generation projects. However, it must be done with care to avoid damage to the environment or loss of farmland.
Financial and Policy Incentives
Despite the fact that Pakistan is so well endowed with wind and solar potential, only a few projects such as those mentioned above have been completed. One of the reasons why this has occurred is that Pakistan does not have major financial incentives available for those who want to install wind turbines or solar panels. Let us look at the case of India, Pakistan's neighbor. Despite having less potential for wind, India now has the world's fourth largest number of wind turbines installed at 7,093 MW, according to India: Renewable Energy Market report. Ahead of India are Germany at 21,283 MW, Spain at 13,400 MW and the US at 12,934 MW. In Germany, Spain and India, those who install wind turbines and solar panels are guaranteed a certain rate per kilowatt hour. In India, this varies according to the technology and the area. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, India reports that in most areas, between 2500 and 4800 rupees are guaranteed for solar panels, and for wind turbines, between 250,000 and 300,000 rupees are awarded.
Because of the above incentives, the cost of wind in India is between 2 and 2.5 cents per kilowatt hour while in Pakistan, the cost is 7 cents. In December 2006, President Musharraf announced a national renewable energy policy. This policy means that small projects do not need approval and that any person can put up their own project. However, there are no financial incentives for doing so. At the moment, all renewable energy equipment has no sales or income tax and is free of custom duty, but these incentives are not enough to stimulate major growth in the renewable energy market where ROIs and other financial ratios have a long gestation or breakeven period. In certain situations, such as the textiles and other Karachi industrial units losing production and export opportunities due to power cuts, it may make sense for the owners to join hands and build power generation capacity they can rely on.
Conclusion
In addition to coal and hydro electricity generation, Miriam Katz argues that it is clear that Pakistan is a suitable country for the installation of wind and solar: due to high winds near cities; the presence of rivers and lakes as well as the availability of wind turbines from nearby India. There are also other reasons for installing renewable energy. It is quite normal for extended power outages to happen on a daily basis in the country, but this cannot continue if the Pakistani economy is to grow. In March 2007, President Musharraf stated that renewable energy should be part of the push to increase energy supplies by 10 to 12 percent every year. The government also set a target of 10 percent of energy to come from renewables by 2015. If the new PPP-led government follows through with aggressive renewable energy push, Pakistan could be an Asian leader in renewable energy given its natural resources of wind and solar as its strategic endowments.
Related Links:
Renewable Energy Businesses in Pakistan
Pakistan Council of Renewable Energy Technology
Renewable Energy for Pakistan
Pakistan Policy on Renewable Technology
Sugarcane Ethanol Project in Pakistan
Community Based Renewable Energy Project in Pakistan
Threre are more reasons to migrate to Canada
1 year ago
59 comments:
Great article Riaz. Pakistan should be bullish on alternative energy. NOW IS THE TIME!
Keep it up!
A good outline of ongoing efforts in the area of renewable energy.
When consumers would have the benefit ,any info on time line?
There is a ton of money and effort going into renewable, alternative energy sources backed by US government and private sector. I think the wind and solar are almost ready for prime time, as shown by German experience. Now it's a matter of Pakistani government's financial incentives and private sector's willingness that will determine how quickly wind and solar take off to make up a significant percentage of electricity generation in Pakistan. If done right, this sector can boost the economy by creating lots of jobs and electricity for consumers and industry.
Here's a comment received via email on Pakistan's power crisis:
My Dear Riaz Haq Sahib..............
A Salamu Alaikum
I hope you are fine…….
I am sorry to disturb you as I wish to consume your some important time……
I am Raja Naveed Sarwar, from Pakistan….. I am writer and a researcher………I used to propose advices to the Government of time, on different issues………whether one acts or rejects, but as a citizen, I think it is my duty to play a role in every national issue that creates hindrance in my country’s progress…….
Sir, regarding the current electricity crisis in Pakistan, I wish to place some advices, and I hope you will also present your opinion in this regard…….
“The electricity crisis is the biggest crisis nowadays in Pakistan….. Government must pay the arrears of the electricity producing companies or IPPs…….. Government should negotiate with these companies and give them surety to pay their arrears as soon as possible… at the instance; Government should pay their arrears in the installments…
For the Thar Coal Project, I think we neither have finance nor the infrastructure to utilize this treasure…… So, it is better to invite the world’s largest companies to Pakistan and introduce our Coal reserves….. Any company can explore, invest and generate power, and plus utilize this coal for the production of Cement……Government of Pakistan can negotiate with these companies, and by the mutual partnership at the sharing basis, an agreement specifying the terms and conditions can be accomplished…….
For this, Government can also publish the open tender in the International newspapers……..
Government can even invite the present Independent Power Producers (IPPs) to use this coal reserves for the generation of Power, and in return they will less their present arrears, in the indemnity of this they should be directed to expand their present generation capacity…..so that the electricity problem can be lightened …….
We should allow the IPPs to use the coil reserves for the generation of the power at the mutual partnership with the Government (according to terms and conditions)…….
I think Government should call a national conference of electric companies, IPPs and renowned technical experts………then formulate a committee of high profile technical experts, who will draw the Power Policy in continuation with the Power Policy of 1994 and consider the current Supply/ Demand mechanism and the available options……
I know all this havoc is happening due to the weak economy……… In my last letter to Government, I advised:
“Pakistan also requires the “Economic Bail-Out Package”……… for this, Pakistani community around the World, Pakistani companies & organizations, Pakistani banks can play a positive role….. Through the “Round Table Conference of Economists” Pakistani Government can appeal to the stated parties…..
Government can launch a transparent “International Fund” that will also be connected with all the Pakistani Embassies and Consulates around the World…..”
President Zardari should address the nation as soon as possible and not only appeal to the Pakistani community around the World for financial support, but also enhance the confidence and morale of the depressed nation, that is going to the way of an insurgency….
I remember the time, when Mr. Nawaz Sharif addressed the nation as the PM, and appealed to the Pakistani community for “Qarz Utaro, Mulk Sawaro”, it was a successful step ……
I do admit, now people are clever and they can not come into these kinds of schemes easily, but, at least Government should try, in the different form……..”
Dear Sir, I am waiting for your reply……..
Regards,
Raja Naveed Sarwar
Pakistan………..
I have read the Articles on Energy Crises in Pakistan. As an Consulatnt in Power Sector, I agree and suugest that Solar is the Best Solution to meet these Energy Crises.
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Here's a piece of news that caught my attention:
"Pakistan, Turkey sign wind energy pact"
Islamabad, Jan 17 (Xinhua) Pakistan Saturday signed a wind energy pact with a Turkish firm.
Pakistan’s water and power minister Raja Pervez Ashraf and chief executive of the Turkish company signed the agreement in Islamabad, the News Network
International news agency reported."
Here's a rather skeptical assessment I received from a person involved in the energy sector in Pakistan:
I reached the conclusion that based on economics,wind energy was best option and even Government Of Pakistan issued 80 letters of intent in this respect .I was trying to sell GE wind Turbines from Germany.But it took so long that when it comes to the stage of final negotiations,we found that all factories in the world are booked for two years and delivery not possible before 3 years.Most American companies found partners in India who capitalized on the situation and started manufacturing under license from foreign companies.We could not even get from India and chapter was closed.Then there was political mess in Pakistan ,not yet get cleared. Only this week Water And Power Ministry announced that it has made an agreement with a Turkish Company to build first Power Plant in Sindh using Wind Turbines.May God save this Turkish Company.
Oct 24, 2008: Pakistan will produce 1,000 megawatts of electricity through wind energy within the next few years, according to Irfan Afzal Mirza, Technical Director of the country’s Alternative Energy Development Board. He told the Voice of Germany that approval has already been given to over twenty-three projects producing 50 megawatts each.
http://www.windenergynews.com/content/view/1436/45/
President of Zorlu Enerji (Pvt) Ltd., Murat Sungar Bursa, who just signed a wind energy agreement with HESCO in Pakistan, said that the estimated cost of 50 MW project was 120 million dollars. He added the company was also considering to further expand the project upto 250MW.
He said incentives offered by Pakistan’s renewable energy policy was a major factor in the company’s decision to invest here. He said that capacity of the wind farm will be enhanced upon successful completion of 50 MW phase.
Zorlu Enerji was the first company to establish wind farm for power generation in Pakistan after signing Energy Purchase Agreement with Hyderabad Electric Supply Corporation for purchase of six MW electricity generated at the company’s facility in Jhimpir.
NEPRA has awarded tariff of US cents 12.1057 Per KWH, which is cheaper than the electricity generated from thermal sources. The power generated from the first phase would be routed to the Jhimpir gird station by HESCO and would be sufficient to electrify 6,900 homes in Hyderabad region.
Harnessing the strong winds coming from South West, the wind farm is first commercial wind power project of the country, comprising five towers in the first phase with an installed capacity of 1.2MW wind turbine generator per tower.
http://www.pakistanhousing.pk/News/index.php/govt-of-pakistan-plans-additional-4000-mw-power-by-year-end/
It seems green energy projects are suffering along with the rest of the economy due to credit crunch. The wind turbine orders are declining and companies manufacturing wind power equipment are reducing workers.
Here's a NY Times report on this :
Factories building parts for these industries have announced a wave of layoffs in recent weeks, and trade groups are projecting 30 to 50 percent declines this year in installation of new equipment, barring more help from the government.
Prices for turbines and solar panels, which soared when the boom began a few years ago, are falling. Communities that were patting themselves on the back just last year for attracting a wind or solar plant are now coping with cutbacks.
“I thought if there was any industry that was bulletproof, it was that industry,” said Rich Mattern, the mayor of West Fargo, N.D., where DMI Industries of Fargo operates a plant that makes towers for wind turbines. Though the flat Dakotas are among the best places in the world for wind farms, DMI recently announced a cut of about 20 percent of its work force because of falling sales.
Much of the problem stems from the credit crisis that has left Wall Street banks reeling. Once, as many as 18 big banks and financial institutions were willing to help finance installation of wind turbines and solar arrays, taking advantage of generous federal tax incentives. But with the banks in so much trouble, that number has dropped to four, according to Keith Martin, a tax and project finance specialist with the law firm Chadbourne & Parke.
Wind and solar developers have been left starved for capital. “It’s absolutely frozen,” said Craig Mataczynski, president of Renewable Energy Systems Americas, a wind developer. He projected his company would build just under half as much this year as it did last year.
The two industries are hopeful that President Obama’s economic stimulus package will help. But it will take time, and in the interim they are making plans for a dry spell.
Solar energy companies like OptiSolar, Ausra, Heliovolt and SunPower, once darlings of investors, have all had to lay off workers. So have a handful of companies that make wind turbine blades or towers in the Midwest, including Clipper Windpower, LM Glasfiber and DMI.
Some big wind developers, like NextEra Energy Resources and even the Texas billionaire T. Boone Pickens, a promoter of wind power, have cut back or delayed their wind farm plans.
Here is an excerpt from Pakistaniat website about the use of solar energy:
A practical example of the use of solar energy could be seen in some villages of Pakistan where each house has been provided with a solar panel that’s sufficient to run an electric fan and two energy saving bulbs. Prior to this arrangement, the whole village used to be plunged in pitch dark during night. One such example is the village with the name of Narian Khorian, some 50 kilometers away from Islamabad, where 100 solar panels have been installed by a local firm, free of cost, to promote the use of solar energy among the masses. Through these panels, the residents of 100 households are enjoying light and fan facilities. Had these panels not been installed, the people living in this area wouldn’t have even dreamt of getting this facility for decades as the provision of electricity from the national grid was a far cry due to the difficult terrain and high expenses involved.
To give you an example of the use of solar energy, you must have noticed solar panels installed on poles along with the telephone booths on your left hand side while commuting on the Motorway. Each of these telephones is being powered by this panel. A battery is installed beneath each solar panel to store energy for keeping the telephone in operation during night when there’s no sun light. It’s a stand-alone system, entirely powered by solar energy. During emergency, the commuters make use of these telephones and call for help.
To give you another example, if you happen to drive from Rawalpindi (Faizabad) towards Murree on the newly constructed Murree Road, you would see on your right hand side blinking red hazard lights installed at the top of each WAPDA pole. Each of these lights is being powered by a stand-alone solar system i.e. a solar panel and a battery. Just imagine, how much expensive and full of hassle it would have been if solar panels weren’t used for this purpose and these lights were provided normal electric connections!
To read more, please visit here.
Wind energy has been regarded as one of the most promising forms of renewable energy to be utilized for electric power generated for current and future needs. Historically wind energy has been harnessed for a vast number of human needs for approximately 5500 years. As a ‘futuristic green source of energy’, wind energy is now being harnessed at a growing rate globally, as we face a dramatic change in our environment.
In view of the above, The United Nations Development Program - UNDP has initiated the project "Sustainable Development of Commercial Scale Wind Power Generation Project” referred simply to as the Wind Energy Project (WEP). This project has been undertaken as an effort to curb the current global environmental crisis being faced in light of heavy emissions of green house gases to fuel a growing population. The project is focused on both developed and developing countries, and is in Phase I of its implementation in Pakistan. The project is being undertaken in association with the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) and the Alternative Energy Development Board
(AEDB).
Please visit our website www.wep.org.pk for a detailed analysis into the implementation of wind energy in Pakistan based the UNDP directive, including specific and thorough investigations into wind energy, wind resource assessment, key financial instruments for tariff refinement, detailed EIA and EA guidelines with reference to potential windy sites in Pakistan, and a list of informative websites on wind energy. Also, please sign our guestbook http://wep-guestbook.org/guestbook/ and leave your comments.
PM inaugurates Pakistan’s first wind power project (Daily Times April 20, 2009)
* Gilani says 24 similar projects underway
* Hopes mid-term renewable energy policy document will get cabinet’s approval
JHIMPIR: Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani on Sunday inaugurated Pakistan’s first-ever wind energy scheme – the 50-megawatt ‘Zorlu Energy Wind Power Project’ – and said the government has created a fund to mainstream and implement alternative energy technologies in the country.
“The fund will be used partially to finance economically viable projects … and for the much-needed capacity building of the renewable energy sector,” said Gilani at the inauguration – which was attended by Sindh Governor Dr Ishratul Ibad, Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah, Federal Minister for Water and Power Raja Pervaiz Ashraf and the water and power secretary.
The prime minister said that the Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) – in collaboration with public and private stakeholders – had prepared a mid-term renewable energy policy document. He said the policy focussed on creating a feasible environment for power generation through renewable energy means in the country. “I hope the policy will be submitted to the cabinet and approved soon,” he said.
“The launch of the Zorlu wind farm is, indeed, a major milestone towards exploiting the wind potential of renowned Gharo-Keti Bandar Wind Corridor. This 60 kilometre long and 170 kilometre deep corridor alone has the potential to generate over 50,000 megawatts of electricity,” he said.
The prime minister said the launch of the project had heralded the beginning of a new era in Pakistan.
“We are keen … to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuel, control environmental pollution and achieve sustainable energy security,” he added.
“I am proud to narrate that apart from the Zorlu wind farm, 24 other wind projects, with a cumulative capacity of 1,200 megawatts, are under way.”
He also praised the Zorlu Energy Group for its plan to expand the project to 250 megawatts. “This will also send a very strong signal … that Pakistan offers great opportunities to do business and investment.” app
Why hasn't anyone thought of alternative power before? Seriously, just solar power alone can power the whole of Pakistan as it's such a warm country! I suggest next time overseas Pakistani's go to Pakistan, instead of taking gifts for their relatives, they buy some solar convertors which are pretty cheap in England
Power sector has been holding Pakistan back in recent years. Here's BMI assessment of energy sector prospects:
The new Pakistan Power Report forecasts Pakistan will account for 1.37% of Asia Pacific regional powergeneration by 2013, with a stable theoretical generation surplus before the country’s substantialtransmission losses are taken into account. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2008 is7,093 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 3.2% over the previous year. We are forecastingan increase in regional generation to 9,099TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 28.3%.
Asia Pacific thermal power generation in 2008 totalled an estimated 5,570TWh, accounting for 78.5% ofthe total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 6,999TWh, implying 25.7% growththat reduces the market share of thermal generation to 76.9% - thanks largely to environmental concernspromoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Pakistan’s thermal generation in 2008was an estimated 62.8TWh, or 1.13% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to stillaccount for 1.13% of thermal generation.
For Pakistan, gas is the dominant fuel, accounting for 47.5% of primary energy demand (PED) in 2007,followed by oil at 30.7%, hydro-electric energy at 12.9% and coal with a 7.9% share. Regional energydemand is forecast to reach 4,859mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 24.9% growthfrom the estimated 2008 level. Pakistan’s estimated 2008 market share of 1.52% is set to ease to 1.45%by 2013. The country’s estimated 2.5TWh of nuclear demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 5.0TWh by2013, with its share of the Asia Pacific nuclear market rising from 0.49% to 0.75% over the period.
Pakistan is ranked third behind India in BMI’s Power Business Environment Rating, thanks to itsrelatively high level of renewables (mostly hydro) generation and healthy power consumption/energydemand growth prospects. Several country risk factors offset some of the industry strength, but thecountry is in a good position to keep clear of Malaysia below.
BMI forecasts Pakistan real GDP growth averaging 3.98% a year between 2009 and 2013, with the 2009estimate at 2.50%. The population is expected to expand from 161mn to 177mn, with per capita GDP andelectricity consumption increasing by 20% and 11% respectively. Power consumption is expected toincrease from an estimated 81TWh in 2008 to 99TWh by the end of the forecast period, which provides arelatively stable theoretical generation surplus (before transmission losses, etc.), assuming 4.3% annualgrowth in electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Pakistani electricity generation of 59.2%,which is mid-range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 27.2% in the 2013-2018 period, up from25.1% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from 19.1% in 2008-2013 to 25.8%, representing49.9% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 49% in hydro-power use during 2008-2018 is a keyelement of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 52% between 2008 and2018, with nuclear usage up 380% from a low base. More details of the long-term BMI power forecastscan be found at the end of this report.
Here's a recent Daily Times report about Bhasha Dam in Pakistan:
ISLAMABAD: Deputy Chairman Planning Commission, Sardar Asef Ahmad Ali on Thursday said some changes had been made in Bhasha Dam project, particularly in its power component. In an exclusive interview with Daily Times he said the power component of Bhasha Dam would be run on Public Private Partnership basis so that burden on the government kitty might be reduced. In this regard he said that a ‘Company’ would be established, which would be converted into an international consortium. The consortium would be able to get equity as well as funds from the International Financial Institutions (IFI), Kuwait Funds and others.
Once the Company is established, he said that there would be no problems for funding, as it would be able to borrow from the market and repay the loan. “The government has assigned me to structure the Company,” the Deputy Chairman said and added that he would invite all power distribution companies including KESC to purchase its shares. The government and WAPDA might also purchase its share and later, expatriates would also be offered shares in it. In this manner, it would enjoy the status of an International Company. Its marketing plan would be carried out at world-class top companies and arrangements would be made to conduct internationals show for it. In this way, all requirements for making it an ‘Equity’ would be fulfilled, he added. All these measures have been carried out for the first time in Pakistan.
About PSDP (Public Sector Development Programme) he said that as a routine, the government releases 19 to 20 percent developmental funds in first quarter of the current fiscal year (July-September 2009). Reason for low allocation was the slow process of revenue generation through new measures adopted in the annual budget. PSDP releases for second quarter (Oct to Dec 2009) was already in progress. If the funds are released in time, he expressed hope that the government would be able to achieve its targets. At present, he said there was no indication by the ministry of finance regarding cut in PSDP 2009-10.
Currently the country’s revenue generation remained stagnant at 8.5 percent of the GDP, which he termed as lowest in the world. The government wanted to increase it to the level of 11 percent of the GDP. “Finance Minister Shaukat Tareen informed me that the government identified 2 million new taxpayers in the existing system and if it remains successful, then the PSDP will be remain as it is”, he maintained.
Dear Mr. Riaz
Thank you for having such a productive pro-Pakistan blog. Usually, overseas Pakistanis are busy complaining about Pakistan and how bad everything is. You on the other hand are concerned and trying to help. I appreciate your efforts and pray that others should also do the same. No country no matter how nice can be your home like Pakistan. My advice to others is no matter what passport they carry you will always be known as Pakistani. Be proud of it.
There have been widespread complaints in Islamabad, including by Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin, that the government had solutions to improve the power output but was refusing to implement them in order to benefit a handful of power plant operators, such as those supplying rental power at exorbitant rates, while the IPPs are not being paid for supplying power from currently underutilized installed capacity. Requests for information by Transparency International Pakistan regarding rental power contracts have been ignored by the Ministry of Water and Power. There are widespread corruption allegations against Mr. Zardari personally who has influenced the award of the 783 MW rental power contracts to a former governor of Oklahoma and his Pakistani partner.
Here is an excerpt from a recent report from Pakistan Economist about rental power in Pakistan:
Pakistan People's Party led coalition government has opted the option of using Rental Power Plants (RPPs) to overcome persistent electricity crisis that is not only causing great amount of hardships for the fellow citizens but also hitting hard to country's economy. There is much hue and cry from political and other circles over alleged kickbacks in deals of RPPs. Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz has already announced to issue a White Paper on RPPs while another opposition party-Pakistan Muslim League (Q)- is also at the forefront in highlighting alleged wrongdoings in the execution of RPPs. Sources in PEPCO told PAGE that RPPs would provide electricity at a quick speed compared to IPPs which will reduce power deficit on an emergency basis. These rental projects are for five years and its costing responsibility rests with private sector investors.
The contract life of these projects is between 3-5 years, after which the government has no obligation to purchase power from these units. According to them, it is incorrect to suggest that rental power costs are substantially higher than that of IPPs. Due to different tariff of rental plants, even after taking into account the high fuel costs, the cost difference is almost equal or marginally higher in case of RPPs. Compared with IPPs, RPPs power generation cost ranges between 12-13 cents per KWh, and IPPs' power generation costs approximately 12 cent per KWh. Government circles are of the view that mere blame game is going on just for the sake of leg pulling. There is nothing wrong in RPPs and the only viable option to get rid of load shedding is rental power plants, they believe. They said rental tariffs for the projects depended on number of factors including location of the plants, system maintenance, and consumption of fuels. Others factors are variation in project cost due to difference in technology, age of machinery, and variations in financing. As many as, 14 approved RPPs with total generation capacity of 2250MW will start functioning by December, which would expectedly end the energy crisis.
However, critics of RPPs are of the sanguine view that highly controversial RPPs are proving last resort to overcome the power crisis, which has hit hard the economic growth of the country besides adding salt to public miseries at large. The political government has surrendered to public pressures on construction of Kalabagh Dam, the only way to survive ahead and instead preferred to go after a stopgap arrangement at a higher cost. The independent experts are of the view that RPPs would not only fail to meet rising electricity demand but also burden the national exchequer in general and power consumers in particular. The public is justifiable in questioning that if RPPs are the option, why it is adopted too late. According to Pakistan Electric Power Company (Pepco) Managing Director Tahir Basharat Cheema, an investment of around US $2 billion is expected in power sector through RPPs. Apart from investment in power sector, additional electricity of 1675 MW will be added in the system by December 2009 when nine rental power projects will start generation.
However, overall 2250 MW electricity will be generated through RPPs in current fiscal year (2009-10). Two rental power projects that have already started generation include Atlas Power (213 MW) and Attock Generation (156 MW) while remaining seven will start functioning by December 2009. These RPPs include Nishat (196 MW), Engro (203 MW), Saif Power (213 MW), Fauji Foundation (176 MW), Sapphire Electric Company (213 MW), and Orient Power Company (213 MW). He said all proposals of RPPs were accepted only with bid bonds and performance guarantee by sponsors.
Here's a blog post about "Power Politics" on "Teeth Maestro". It was produced by Center for Research and Security Studies:
Two questions: why have some private power producers completely shut down? Why are private power producers operating way below their full generating potential? Two answers: political score-settling plus the circular debt.
We at the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) have been trying for months to ascertain the crux of our power politics. Almost all roads lead back to the government. The federal government is the largest power defaulter, then come the four provincial governments, FATA, the KESC and the KW&SB. This is how the circular debt explodes into even bigger circles: the federal government does not pay its electricity bills to Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA).
WAPDA is then unable to pay for electricity it buys from IPPs. IPPs are then unable to pay for their oil supplies. Refineries, short on cash, are unable to pay their foreign suppliers. Grow, grow, grow and we have a Rs200 billion time bomb.
Welcome to the rental power bonanza; the government’s ingenious – canny, crafty and cunning – all-in-one solution for the crux of our power politics. What we need to do is to re-start the power producers that are shut down. That’s 800 MW at US 11 cents per MW. What we need to do is to resolve our circular debt puzzle. What we need to do is to get our sugar mills connected to the national grid which could generate an additional 2,200 MW at less than US 11 cents per MW.
Here' Reuter's analysis of rental power in Pakistan:
Aides of Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin said he almost resigned after failing to persuade the cabinet against renting, an option he considered expensive and inefficient.
Here are some questions and answers about the plight of the power sector in Pakistan and leasing plants.
WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?
Pakistan has about 20,000 MW of installed power production capacity, but that falls short of demand by roughly 4,000 MW. Lengthy power cuts, dubbed load shedding, have become commonplace.
Past governments failed to anticipate the growth in demand and delayed clearing power project proposals and big dam projects that would have boosted hydro power.
Lack of investment in existing plant, outdated grids and rampant electricity theft mean that some grid companies experience line losses of up to 30-40 percent, analysts say.
Many independent power producers (IPPs) operate well below capacity because they cannot pay their fuel bills regularly as grid companies owe them money.
The crisis has crippled industry, notably textiles, the main export sector and largest employer in the manufacturing sector.
There have also been violent protests that some analysts see as a bad omen both for the government and democracy in a country struggling to contain the growth of Islamist militancy.
WHAT IS BEING DONE TO BOOST SUPPLIES?
The 18-month-old civilian government has vowed to increase supplies but needs huge finances.
It recently reached an agreement with the World Bank and Asian Development Bank to phase in power tariff increases.
The government is working on a multi-pronged strategy to address the problem through building new dams and setting up new permanent power plants. It sees Rental Power Plants (RPPs) as the "only solution", while completing medium and long-term projects.
WHAT IS RENTAL POWER PLANT?
Countries can hire power units from overseas manufacturers that can be shipped in kit form and installed.
It takes four to six months to set up a rental unit, while two to five years may be needed for an Independent Power Producer to build a plant.
Surging emerging economies like China and Turkey have gone the short-term rental route to bridge power supply gaps. And Pakistan, according to official documents, had two rental units commence operation in 2007.
Under the new plan, additional RPPs would be set up to generate 2,250 MW by the end of the year.
HOW WILL RENTAL POWER PLANTS IMPACT FUEL DEMAND?
The rental power plants would increase the Pakistani power sector's furnace oil needs by 29 percent, driving up its import bill and adding to pressure on the rupee and currency reserves.
Pakistan requires 35,000 tonnes a day to feed its thermal power plants and the installation of the RPPs will increase demand to 45,000 tonnes, officials say.
The country imports about 80 percent of its oil. It spent $9.5 billion on the import of 10.6 million tonnes of petroleum products and 7.8 million tonnes of crude oil in the 2008/09 (July-June) financial year.
WHAT ARE THE PROS AND CONS?
Rental plants can provide breathing space for Pakistan to focus on medium- and long-term projects.
Advocates say rental plants are efficient, will help quickly meet growing needs, and end-consumers will pay the same or a bit less for their electricity.
Opponents say the mostly second-hand equipment will be less efficient and that the tariff will rise. They argue that the government would be better off spending money on upgrading and using idle existing capacity.
Some opponents also say the option is being supported by corrupt politicians hoping for kickbacks.
Here is an explanation offered by the News for gas and CNG shortage in Pakistan:
ISLAMABAD: The multi-million dollar mystery shrouding the serious shortage of gas in the country, which has already led to twice a week closure of CNG stations, seems to have finally been resolved, as millions of cubic feet of gas per day is now being supplied to powerful owners of the controversial rental power plants in the country as the Economic Coordination Committee of the Cabinet meeting on Tuesday (tomorrow) has been asked to approve additional supplied for these plants.
The official sources said these expensive rental power plants, which were being installed with tall claims to address the energy crises in the country, were said to have now become one of the major reasons behind a new sorts of energy crises in Pakistan, as their gas requirements are bound to hit other sectors of economy running on gas supplies. The cement sector has already been hit as its gas supply is now being diverted to one such power plant at Naudero.
Under the agreed deal which was subjected to criticism both within and outside the Parliament, these rental power plants will continue to get gas supplies for five years till the completion of their agreements with the Ministry of Water and Power.
The formal approval of this gas supply is being given in the Economic Committee of the Cabinet (ECC) meeting tomorrow (Tuesday). Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin will preside over the meeting as Petroleum Minister Naveed Qamar is out to get the approval for these plants as proposed in the official summary of his ministry.
The sources said the supply of gas would become a huge issue in the coming days for even the domestic consumers after the government would divert more gas to these rental power plants after diverting it from the sectors which were now regularly getting the supplies. Now ECC was asked to give supply of gas only for one plant. Sources said, more demands from other power plants will soon follow and then the country would really experience the burden of these power plants, which were ironically being installed to address the very energy crises of the country.
The official papers to be laid in the ECC meeting revealed that the gas meant for the cement sector in particular was being drastically reduced and diverted to the rental power plants in the country. One source said, certain other sectors which are already getting the gas in the country soon may also face similar kind of cuts in their approved supply to accommodate the privileged and powerful owners of the plants having direct links at the top levels.
The huge gas supply is being supplied as a part of deal struck with these rental power plants by the Ministry of Water and Power in controversial circumstances.
According to the official papers to be tabled in the ECC meeting, the Ministry of Petroleum was now seeking the approval of diversion of gas from cement to power plants and initially a power plant of 51 MW was being provided with 30MMCFD. The papers said earlier the ECC has decided on October 2 to place 12 MMCFD gas from SSGC system at the disposal of PPIB/Ministry of Water and Power for five years for power generation in accordance with the natural gas allocation and management policy of 2005. The official summary said the Ministry of Water and Power have now informed that 12 MMFCD gas been allocated to the power plants project.
The summary said, based on SSGCL commitment, it is proposed that 15 MMCFD additional gas from SSGCL system which includes diversion of 14MMCFD gas being supplied to cement sector may be placed at the disposal of PPPB/ Ministry of Water and Power on the “ as and when available basis for five years” for power generation subject to following conditions.
Here's a Wall Street Journal report about India trying to reduce dependence on China in power sector:
MUNDRA, India—India is trying to rein in its heavy reliance on Chinese equipment and know-how for the ambitious expansion of its power sector. The shift casts a shadow over what has been a healthy partnership in an often tense relationship between the giant neighbors.
India wants to boost electricity output by 60% in the five-year span ending March 2012 to alleviate severe shortages and help fuel a rapidly growing economy. But it doesn't have enough of its own equipment and engineers to meet that goal, so power companies have looked overseas for help. U.S. and European suppliers are too expensive, but low-cost Chinese contractors are a good fit.
Chinese companies are now supplying equipment for about 25% of the new power capacity India is adding to its grid, up from almost nothing a few years ago. They have sent thousands of skilled workers to Indian plant sites, some of which boast Chinese chefs, Chinese television and ping pong.
But now India is reining in cooperation with China as it seeks to build up its own manufacturing base to service power plants. The Central Electricity Authority, India's top planning body for power projects, recently asked government-controlled power companies to use Indian equipment on all upcoming big projects.
The Indian government is also considering a plan to tax Chinese power imports. And Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's aides have told power regulators to make sure India has enough spare parts on hand to fix Chinese equipment when it needs repairs, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
"It's better that we depend on our own capabilities rather than depend on those from the outside," Rakesh Nath, chairman of the Central Electricity Authority, said in an interview.
Pakistan has one of the highest "transmission losses", a euphemism for rampant power theft by consumers. Now Nawaz Sharif, former prime minister and PML(N) chief, is being accused of addressing a supporter's rally lit by "kunda", a hook-like device commonly used to steal electricity.
LAHORE: Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz found itself entangled in a controversy on Monday that threatened to undermine its claim of occupying the high moral ground, according to a report by DawnNews.
As Nawaz Sharif addressed supporters in the run-up to a Lahore by-election, his large rally was lit up by extensive use of illegal connections using ‘kunda’ (hooks that are attached to live power cables to secure supply without having to pay for it).
Power utility officials told DawnNews that they would estimate the number of units consumed and bill the user based on that, while Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah tried to distance his party and government from this outrage by blaming an unnamed contractor.
PML-N spokesman Siddiqul Farooq told DawnNews that an inquiry would be held to fix responsibility for what was “clearly” a crime.
In a damage-limitation exercise well past midnight, PML-N leader Saad Rafique told a news conference his party was not at fault and that ‘kunda’ connections had been made by the administration to provide security lighting.
Here's more from the BBC about power theft at Nawaz Sarif's Lahore rally and the low-level official being made the fall guy:
A low-ranking Pakistani official has been punished for stealing electricity to provide power for lights used at an opposition night rally.
An inquiry by the Lahore Electric Supply Company (Lesco) blamed the theft on a junior municipal officer.
The unnamed official has been fined 3,000 rupees ($35) for ordering illegal connections for powerful searchlights.
The discovery that power was being stolen came as opposition leader Nawaz Sharif was denouncing corruption.
Lesco says it has also suspended a low-ranking official for failing in his duty to ensure that power supplies to the rally were not illegal.
The BBC's M Ilyas Khan in Islamabad says critics are bound to see the inquiry as a whitewash because the officials involved have been made into scapegoats.
Our correspondent says that electricity theft and other forms of corruption plague Pakistan but it is generally only poorer or less influential people who are arrested for it.
Live wires
Mr Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party governs Punjab province, whose capital is Lahore, and was widely accused of siphoning off power to provide lighting for the rally.
Television footage showed that metal hooks had been illegally connected to live wires to secure the electricity supply.
The PML-N denied wrongdoing, saying the power supply had been arranged by Lahore administration officials to ensure security at the rally. Mr Sharif denied being personally responsible for the theft.
The allegations were embarrassing for the former prime minister, who indirectly denounced President Asif Zardari in his speech for making illegal money and stashing it away in foreign bank accounts.
Both men have denied persistent accusations of corruption over the years.
General Electric (GE) has signed an MOU with Pak govt to participate in supporting the forecast 54,0000 MW of electricity demand by 2020. Here's the report from Daily Times:
ISLAMABAD: The government has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with General Electric (GE) in the Prime Minister House to help promote the modernisation of Pakistan’s infrastructure and economy.
Saleem H. Mandviwala, Chairman Board of Investment and Nani Beccalli-Falco, President and Chief Executive Officer of GE International singed the MOU on behalf of the government of Pakistan and General Electric Company respectively.
The prime minister welcomed the initiatives of General Electric to support Pakistan’s national objective for development. He expressed the democratic government’s commitment of making Pakistan a trade, investment and financial hub.
“This is a landmark day that we have signed the MoU with one of the most renowned conglomerates of the USA, and this will certainly open another productive era of economic ties and people to people contacts,” the Prime Minister said.
The agreement focuses on the development of Pakistan’s energy resources to meet projected demand of 54,000 megawatts by the year 2020. “General Electric is helping build the energy, water, transportation and technology infrastructure of the new century,” says Nani Beccalli-Falco, President and Chief Executive Officer of GE International. “There are huge synergies between the products and services GE businesses provide in energy and infrastructure and the needs and goals of Pakistan to modernize its economy with cleaner, more efficient and better infrastructure technologies.” GE has similar agreements with a number of other governments, including Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Qatar and the province of Ontario, Canada.
The government of Pakistan aimed to meet projected energy demands using diverse sources and tactics. Possible solutions include renewable sources, such as, wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, coal, hydro and conventional thermal through gas and steam turbines, rehabilitation of existing power generation facilities, along with transfer of technology for manufacture and repair of turbines, developing more efficient and environmentally sound rail transport systems, developing water purification and reuse, wastewater treatment, and process system programs.
According to the MOU’s terms, GE would assist Pakistan in achieving its goals by engaging in Pakistan’s energy, transportation and water sectors and would work to identify potential sources of funding and explore potential investment opportunities in those sectors. Pakistan has committed to meeting with GE regularly to facilitate the goals of the MoU and provide support to the establishment and operation of the GE facilities in Pakistan, transparently and consistent with the laws and regulations of Pakistan. Pakistan would also facilitate the issuance of work permits and visas for the GE employees and contractors as needed in order to support the objectives of the signed MOU.
Here are some excerpts from Fareed Zakaraia's interview with US Energy chief, Nobel Laureate Dr. Stephen Chu:
"I see the cost of [solar] photovoltaics going down and down. Right now it's about $4 per watt for full installation. In a decade it will certainly be less than $2. If it's $1 or $1.25, then everyone will put it up without subsidy. What else do I see? A new generation of biofuels that are direct substitutes for gasoline—so, better than ethanol—using agricultural waste: weed straw, rice straw, corncobs, wood surplus."
"We're at about 4 percent now (renewables sources). President Obama made a target to double that by 2012, and we are on target. I expect that to continue. In 10 years' time we hope to have carbon-capture-and-sequestration technologies starting to be deployed. Hopefully, we'll have restarted the nuclear industry and we'll be building several nuclear reactors."
Here's are excerpts from a report about "Solar India" initiative in Pakistan's neighborhood:
The country is blessed with radiant sunshine: it ranks at the top among the world's countries in in terms of annual solar energy
yield, according to recent studies.
But it is also a country where 412 million of its 1.1 billion people live without electricity, faces an energy deficit of 16 per cent and needs power desperately to drive its high economic growth.
Aiming for long-term energy security, the government has unveiled plans to boost solar output almost 1,000-fold to 20,000 megawatt by 2022.
The 'Solar India' initiative, to be implemented by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, would power cities and rural areas and could revolutionize the domestic solar-energy industry.
Fossil fuels currently account for 70 per cent of India's energy mix, while renewable sources provide about 9 per cent.
'Given the ground realities, major challenges include effective financing, advancing R&D in technologies for solar modules and components and human resources like training engineers and technicians,' said Rajinder Kumar, secretary general of the Solar Energy Society of India.
'We have to bring in a balance of system, distribution and maintenance to realize our solar dream,' Kumar said.
The investment
required for the three-phase programme is around 50 billion dollars, of which the government would contribute about 40 per cent.
There is little clarity on where the remainder should come from, with Indian expecting that rich countries with a responsibility to assist renewable projects in the developing world would provide the funding.
The strategy currently framed would include a long-term policy to purchase power and shift subsidies from fossil fuels to renewable-power generation.
'We need to reduce high-initial costs for solar-power generation and build grids of scale to allow rapid diffusion of solar technologies and large-scale domestic manufacture of equipment,' renewalbe energy ministry spokeswoman Prabahvati Akashi said.
The ministry says there is 'tremendous interest' from companies and entrepreneurs for the pilot programme based on feed-in tariffs.
Following a recent launch of small commercial solar farms, the Clinton Foundation is setting up 3,000- to 5,000-megawatt (MW) solar energy parks in northern Rajasthan.
Here's a Dawn report on US plans to help Pakistan's power sector:
LAHORE: Help for Pakistan’s energy sector will be a top priority in plans for direct US investment in the country under the Kerry-Lugar Bill, Administrator of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), Dr Rajiv Shah, said here on Wednesday.
“The US will help refurbish three thermal and one hydel power plant that will add some 4,500MW to the national grid,” Mr Shah said while talking to this correspondent at Lahore airport before leaving for Islamabad. USAID’s Pakistan Mission Director Robert Wilson was also present.
Dr Shah said the US would invest directly in Pakistani institutions in a wide range of areas. “It is time to take immediate action to aggressively meet education and health needs also.”
He dispelled a perception that a large part of the funding would go to consultants and contractors in the United States. “It will be utilised in water, education, health and agriculture sectors that are in tremendous need of development through short-, medium- and long-term infrastructural reforms.”
He said the initiatives would help create employment, especially in tribal areas where small and medium projects relating to infrastructure development, livelihood support and technology transfer would be launched.
The quality of education would be improved through teachers’ training, curriculum development programmes and provision of textbooks in other less developed areas, especially southern Punjab, he said.
In health sector, he said, the focus would be on strengthening professional institutions and USAID would arrange for capacity building of lady health workers and paramedical staff and higher education of physicians.
Dr Shah said reinvestment in agricultural research would be another major area of attention. “We are proud to be partners in research activities at the agriculture universities of Faisalabad and Rawalpindi. Now plans are afoot to improve training facilities and marketing skills of farmers as agriculture contributes more than 25 per cent to Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product.
“We will work on the critical issue of water with programmes aimed at helping Pakistan better manage its water resources to ensure maximum water access to the people.”
Dr Shah said: “President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton launched strategic dialogue with Pakistan to make sure that our relationship is a broad and deep partnership defined by mutual respect and cooperation in a broad range of areas, especially energy, water, education and health sectors that are very important for development of cooperation.
“This trip was really an effort to follow up that strategic dialogue. We are here to meet Pakistani leaders in government, private sector and civil society. We also have a chance to meet professors at universities and hold discussions to explore effective means and ways to work together.”
Iftikhar A. Khan adds from Islamabad: Addressing a press conference in the federal capital, Dr Shah said aid to Pakistan was not tied to the country’s performance in stemming militancy. He underlined the need for financial management control to ensure that the aid was spent to achieve the defined objectives.
He said the US had significantly enhanced investment portfolio for Pakistan without setting any specific conditions.
He said the purpose of his visit was to learn about priorities in development and put in place many principles discussed during the recent round of strategic dialogue in Washington.
Dr Shah hinted at the possibility of helping Pakistan augment its water reservoirs. “We are looking at a broad range of options and will do everything which makes economic sense.” He said the US was working with other donors and international partners to help Pakistan improve its hydro infrastructure.
Here's a BBC report about Pakistan government's latest plan to tackle power shortages:
According to government sources, Pakistan's energy shortfall comes to around 3,668 megawatts (MW) per day.
BBC correspondents say officials hope the new measures will save 1,500 MW a day.
Mr Gilani said that Pakistan's government would pay 116 bn rupees ($1.38bn) to the power sector to help resolve the issue of debt owed to various power producers within the industry.
Measures include extending the official weekend from one to two days, early closure of street markets, and a 50% cut in power to government offices.
Pakistan's energy crisis is due to a surge in demand and a failing power distribution infrastructure.
The shortages have crippled industry and led to rioting across Pakistan.
Electricity supplies to homes and businesses across Pakistan are often cut for several hours a day because of the power shortfall.
Extending the weekend will shorten the working week and so cut electricity use by businesses.
Mr Gilani says the government will take the lead in cutting demand for energy.
"We are taking these decisions in the best national interest," he told reporters.
Other energy-saving measures include:
* The power supply to Karachi, Pakistan's main port and industrial capital, will be reduced by 300 MW a day
* Marriage halls will no longer be able to host all-night wedding parties
* Neon signs and brightly-lit billboards are to be banned
All the measures will be reviewed at the end of July.
Mr Gilani said he would introduce government units and 13 independent power producers as part of the plan.
He said the steps were necessary and that the government now had a long-term strategy to deal with the power crisis.
The BBC's Syed Shoaib Hasan in Islamabad says that the energy crisis is also seen as a threat to Pakistan's security situation.
Pakistan's leadership has been examining alternatives to its hydroelectric power-based energy producing sector.
One option they are looking at is more civilian nuclear power plants, our correspondent says.
Here's a NY Times report about Pakistan's growing power crisis:
Pakistan is in the throes of an energy crisis, with Pakistanis now enduring about 12 hours of power cuts a day, a grueling schedule that is melting ice, stopping fans and enraging an already exhausted populace just as the blast furnace of summer gets started.
In an effort to stem that frustration, Pakistan’s government held an emergency meeting last week, bringing together top bureaucrats from across the country. But instead of easing the problem, it aggravated it, ordering power-saving measures that seemed calculated to smother some Pakistanis’ last remaining pleasures.
“They are playing a joke on us,” said Amina Ali, the mother of a bride at a wedding hall that was under orders to close early as part of the new energy-saving restrictions. Her brother chimed in: “The Pakistani people are a toy in the hands of the government.”
The power failures could prove destabilizing if they go unchecked, analysts said. Pakistan badly needs its economy to expand to make space for its bulging young population, and chronic power cuts work against that.
It is a concern for the United States, which is trying to help steady Pakistan’s wobbly finances and keep its democratically elected government afloat. The Obama administration has pledged about $1 billion for energy over the next five years.
The crisis is a snarl of unmet responsibilities, and untangling it will not be easy. It has a cast of guilty characters that goes back years: governments that are incapable of planning ahead; bureaucrats who take bribes; even ordinary people who steal about 30 percent of all the power produced. The tribal areas in the west, for example, have no meters and have never paid for power.
The result is about $2 billion a year in energy that is generated but not paid for. Industry experts said they were skeptical the government had a way to close the growing gap between Pakistan’s demand for power and the energy sector’s ability to produce it.
“There is nobody in Islamabad who is working on a coherent, integrated plan,” said one industry executive who asked not to be identified because he did not want to be seen as being critical of the government. “The discussion just keeps going in circles.”
Here's a piece on plans for wind turbine domestic manufacturing in Pakistan published in Dawn:
PROPOSALS for local manufacturing of wind turbines and allied equipment on commercial basis from foreign and domestic companies for partnership with Pakistan Machine Tool Factory (PMTF) at Karachi are in advanced stage of evaluation. The initiative has been launched by the State Engineering Corporation.
In July 2009, the expressions of interest (EOIs) were invited by the Corporation internationally. World reputed manufacturers in the USA, China and the European countries were also contacted directly seeking their collaboration for progressive manufacturing of wind turbines.
Enormous potential for power generation from wind energy has been identified in various parts of the country.. In 2006, the Alternate Energy Development Board (AEDB) had announced an attractive investment policy for promotion of renewable energy and many manufacturers of wind turbines like GE Energy (Canada), Vestas (Denmark) and Siemens/Fuhrlander (Germany) had shown interest in setting up wind farm projects in partnership with domestic entrepreneurs.
This is not for the first time that efforts have been made for manufacturing of machinery for wind mills. In response to the Energy Policy 1994, two wind power projects were proposed to be established in Sindh and Balochistan. The American sponsors of Kenetech wind power project of 100 mw capacity, who are also the manufacturers of wind turbines, had collaborated with the PMTF for local manufacturing of wind turbines, under technology transfer arrangement. No physical progress was achieved as none of the projects was approved by the government, courtesy the powerful lobby of oil-based thermal power plants.
Again, in 2006, Heavy Mechanical Complex (HMC) planned to diversify its wide-range production programme of power plant machinery to cover wind energy projects as well. The pioneering efforts by HMC to obtain requisite technology for one or two megawatt capacity wind turbine from any global key player however, were thwarted by the AEDB, which instead supported private sector participation for local manufacturing. The AEDB had claimed to have signed agreements with a few Western companies for the design, engineering and manufacturing of wind turbines and accessories. Based on these agreements the AEDB was said to be looking for qualified companies to commence assembly-cum-manufacturing of equipment locally. Nothing happened.
In the recent past, New Park Energy Limited proposed to establish a wind turbine generator assembly plant at Nooriabad, Dadu. The sponsor has obtained approval for the development of a wind farm of 1,000 mw in phases, the first phase project being of 400 mw capacity.
The government has allocated 1,000 acres of land to the company in the Gharo-Keti Bunder wind corridor on concessionary rates. The first wind energy project was thus launched in December 2004, but only of 45 mw capacity, proposed to be installed with 30x1.5 mw General Electric (GE) wind turbines. The project, which was to attain commercial operations in 2007, still remains on paper and even the Letter of Support (LOS) has not yet been obtained by the sponsors, despite a lapse of five years......
If the indigenisation programme is successfully implemented it would prove to be precursor for rapid development of the wind power projects for its low cost, high reliability and for being environmental friendly. India has over 10,833 mw installed wind power capacity, as in September 2009, with majority of wind turbines produced locally. Today, India has nine principal manufacturers and suppliers of wind electric generators in the range of 225 kw to two mw units.
Here is a report on the cost of wind turbines in 2011:
Wind energy, it appears, has never been so competitive. Prices for wind turbines last year dropped below €1 million ($1.36 million) per megawatt for the first time since 2005, due largely to over-capacity, greater manufacturing efficiency and increased scale, according to the market researcher Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
The group’s most recent Wind Turbine Price Index, based on confidential data provided by 28 major purchasers of wind turbines, shows that prices remain under pressure in most parts of the world. The survey includes more than 150 undisclosed turbine contracts, totaling nearly 7 GW of capacity in 28 markets around the world, with a focus on Europe and the Americas.
While the news is good for wind farm project developers hoping to save money, it’s troubling for manufacturers and component suppliers trying to make money – they have seen their margins shrink over the past couple of years. Global turbine contracts signed in late 2010 for the first six months of this year averaged €980,000 per MW, down 7 percent from €1.06 million per MW in 2009 and a peak of €1.21 million in 2008 and 2007.
All manufacturers covered by the survey showed “aggressive pricing, according to New Energy Finance, which was acquired by Bloomberg in 2009. Low-priced power-purchase-agreements in markets exposed to competitive electricity prices – rather than fixed feed-in tariffs – appear to have put additional pressure on turbine contracts. Average prices in Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States were well below €1 million per MW for contracts signed in 2010 and slated for delivery in the first half of this year.
The cost of electricity generated by wind is now at record low levels, according to the survey. “For the past few years, wind turbine costs went up due to rising demand around the world and the increasing price of steel,” Michael Liebreich, chief executive of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said in a statement. “Behind the scenes, wind manufacturers were reducing their costs, and now we are seeing just how cheap wind energy can be when overcapacity in the supply chain works its way through to developers.”
Overall, the annual 2010 global wind market shrunk for the first time in two decades, down 7 percent from 38.6 GW in 2009 due mainly to a disappointing year in the U.S. and a slowdown in the Europe, according to figures released earlier this month by the Global Wind Energy Council. The U.S. which is traditionally one of the strongest wind markets, saw its annual installations drop by 50 percent from 10 GW in 2009 to just over 5 GW in 2010, GWEC said in a statement.
“Our industry continues to endure a boom-bust cycle because of the lack of long-term, predictable federal policies, in contrast to the permanent entitlements that fossil fuels have enjoyed for 90 years or more,” Denise Bode, CEO of the American Wind Energy Association, said in the same statement.
GWEC secretary general Steve Sawyer believes 2011 will be better. “Orders picked up again in the second half of 2010 and investments in the sector continue to rise,” he said.
On that note, French manufacturer Alstom won a contract this month from Traianel to build Germany’s 80-turbine Borkum West II wind farm offshore farm. The project is scheduled for completion in March 2012.
US Energy Secretary Chu believes solar and wind will be competitive with energy from fossil fuels without subsidies by 2020. Here's a report:
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has unveiled initiatives aiming to make solar power as cheap as fossil fuels, and stimulate 10 GW of offshore wind development, in the next decade.
The DOE said the solar initiative, dubbed as a “sun shot” by energy secretary Steven Chu – in reference to John F. Kennedy’s “moon shot” goal of landing a man on the moon in the 1960s – would reduce the cost of solar power by 75 percent.
Chu said that would put the price of installed solar power at about $1 per watt, or about six cents per kWh, and allow solar energy systems to be broadly deployed across the country.
“That would make solar energy cost-competitive with other forms of energy without subsidies of any kind,” Chu said, according to Reuters.
The initiative includes $27 million awarded to nine projects to support the development, manufacturing and commercialization of solar energy technologies.
The DOE and Department of the Interior yesterday also announced up to $50.5 million for projects that support offshore wind energy development, and identified several high-priority Wind Energy Areas (pdf) in the mid-Atlantic.
The areas are offshore of Delaware (122 square nautical miles), Maryland (207), New Jersey (417), and Virginia (165), and will receive streamlined reviews to lessen the time for project approval and leasing, the DOE said.
The Department of the Interior said it could offer leases in these areas as early as the end of 2011.
The Interior said it hopes to identify Wind Energy Areas off of north Atlantic states, including Massachusetts and Rhode Island, in March. The department said it will carry out a similar process for the south Atlantic region, especially North Carolina, this spring.
The $50.5 million, spread over five years, is aimed at developing breakthrough offshore wind technology and removing market barriers.
The departments also published a joint plan called the National Offshore Wind Strategy (pdf). The plan calls for deploying 10 GW of offshore wind by 2020 and 54 GW by 2030, with development in both oceans, the Gulf Coast and the Great Lakes.
The plan focuses on three key challenges to offshore wind: the high cost, technical challenges, and lack of site data and expertise with permitting processes.
Here's Business Monitor International (BMI) 2011 report on power sector in Pakistan:
The new Pakistan Power Report forecasts Pakistan will account for 1.12% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2015, with the chance of possible generation surplus if investment rises and the country’s substantial transmission losses can be brought under control. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,761 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 5.1% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 9,901TWh by 2015, representing growth of 21.2% in 2011-2015.
In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation totalled an estimated 6,187TWh, accounting for 79.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 7,704TWh, implying 18.6% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.8%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Pakistan’s thermal generation in 2010 was an estimated 64.2TWh, or 1.04% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 0.83% of regional thermal generation.
Gas is the dominant fuel in Pakistan, accounting for an estimated 50.9% of primary energy demand (PED) in 2010, followed by oil at 31.0%, hydro-electric energy at 9.6% and coal with a 6.9% share. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,508mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.0% growth from the estimated 2011 level. Pakistan’s estimated 2010 market share of 1.54% is set to ease to 1.51% by 2015. Pakistan’s estimated 2.9TWh of nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 7.0TWh by 2015, with its share of the Asia Pacific nuclear market rising from an estimated 0.53% to 0.90% over the period.
Pakistan now shares eighth place with Malaysia in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its relatively high level of renewables (mostly hydro) usage and healthy energy demand growth prospects. Several country risk factors offset the industry strength, but the country is in a good position to keep clear of the Philippines below.
BMI now forecasts Pakistan real GDP growth averaging 3% a year between 2011 and 2015, with the 2011 growth assumption being 1.5%. The population is expected to expand from 173mn to 194mn, with GDP per capita increasing by 24% and electricity consumption per capita rising by 5%. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 75TWh in 2010 to 87TWh by the end of the forecast period. After power industry usage and transmission losses, there is scope for a supply surplus by 2015 of around 4TWh, assuming 2.9% average annual growth in electricity generation during 2011-2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Pakistani electricity generation of 32.3%, which is below average for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 15.3% in the 2015-2020 period, up from 14.8% in 2011-2015. PED growth is set to increase from 20.5% in 2011-2015 to 22.4%, representing 47.4% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 50% in hydro-power use during 2011- 2020 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by just 8% between 2011 and 2020, with nuclear usage up 314% from a low base. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
Some two years back there was a huge debate in India about the nuclear deal with US. The major opposition came from the communist party, which did not like India having a stratagic partnership with US, the champions of world capitalism. They organised several workshops which was intented to educate the public about renewable energy, a few of which I also attented.
Several professors and activists explained, like if we convert all the wind, all the hydral power etc, we can produce more energy than from the proposed nuclear reactors and we should protest aganist the nuclear deal. Sounds good, but not practical. India is a corrupt country. Thus buliding several units that produce small amounds of energy will provide more room for corruption and inefficancy than building a single unit which produce huge power (nuclear reactor). Single units that produce huge power is also the best solution in an energy short, but rapidly growing economy. Situation being similar or even worse in Pakistan, in my opnion, its better not to go in the renewable energy direction. Like India, nuclear power is the best option for Pakistan. Many viewed my arguments politically biased as I am a firm supporter of the ruling Congress party which initiated the nuclear deal, but I belive there is some truth in what I said.
Sindh govt allocates Rs. 3.7 billion for Thar coal development in 2011-12 budget, according to Dawn:
KARACHI, June 11: Tormented by the power shortages the Sindh government focuses on developing indigenous coal reserves. In the next Annual Development Plan it has earmarked Rs3710.937 million for Thar coal project.
For energy sector a total of Rs1214.499 million has been kept in the ADP 2011-12. This include Rs1100 million for the coal gasification project.
Sindh Finance Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah while explaining salient features of the budget for 2011-12 said: “Thar coal reserves of 175 billion tons are ample for provision of cost-effective energy for centuries”.
He said that once the reserves were properly exploited they could help in generating 20,000MW by 2020.
Recently, in international competitive bidding, two Chinese companies, an Australian company, and Pakistan Petroleum Limited participated.
As a result, two Chinese companies have been selected to undertake coal exploration, power generation and establishing petro-chemical complex at two blocks of Thar.
He said the bankable feasibility study for joint venture project of the Sindh government and Engro was created to boost the potential in a record period of eight months.
The Sindh government and the federal government have included this project in the list of projects to be taken up with the Pak-China Joint Energy Working Group (JEWG) formed during the last visit of the Chinese prime minister to Pakistan, he said.
Leading Chinese companies have shown strong interest in executing this project. The mining and power generation from this project is expected in 2015-16 depending upon the financing arrangements for the project.
The test burn at Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) is expected during coming financial year. After successful testing, the project will be scaled up to produce 2x50MW electricity.
He said the government has made serious efforts to provide critical infrastructure for development of Thar coal.
A scheme for bringing water to Thar from Makhi Farash has been approved by ECNEC, feasibility studies for effluent disposal and laying of broad-gauge railway line are to be completed in June, 2011.
Work on improvement and widening of road for movement of heavy machinery from Karachi to Mithi-Islamkot is expected to start in next year.
According to rough calculations an amount of $1.20 billion is needed over a period of next five years to develop the required infrastructure for Thar.
Serious efforts are also in place to exploit the Gharo-Keti Bandar wind corridor.
During the Sindh chief minister`s recent visit to South Korea an MoU to generate 2000MW of wind energy was signed with Korea Southern Power Company.
The issue of electric power is of great priority for Sindh. The CCI has given approval to the removal of a limit on the ceiling of 50MW, which was earlier set at which provinces could construct power plants.
The Sindh government has signed a letter of intent with the Three Gorges Project Corporation, China`s premier electricity producer, to help explore the hydro power potential in Sindh.
A team from CWE, a subsidiary of the Three Gorges, recently visited Sukkur Barrage to gauge the potential for constructing a power plant.
Under the village electrification programme 446 villages were provided electricity during 2010-11, while the process for providing power to 350 more villages is underway.
ADB targets solar power projects in Pakistan: Daily Times:
ISLAMABAD: Asian Development Bank (ADB) will launch the Asia Accelerated Solar Energy Development Fund with $2.25 billion as it targets solar power projects in countries including China, India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Thailand to add another 1,000 megawatts next year and 1,500MW in 2013, said a statement of the ADB.
“By providing an enabling environment for commercial lending and private investment in the solar energy market, we hope to encourage its rapid growth and bring solar energy nearer to grid parity-making solar energy competitive in price to conventional sources,” ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda said at a clean energy forum in Manila.
Asia needs to invest around $10 billion in the next few years to make solar power generation competitive with conventional energy sources and called for radical steps to fight climate change.
ADB wants Asia, home to about two-thirds of the world’s population to add 3,000 megawatts of solar energy capacity by the end of 2013, he added.
Already this year, it has helped countries add 500 megawatts, doubling the region’s solar capacity. Fast-growing Asian economies rely heavily on fossil fuels. ADB has forecast Asia-Pacific imports of fossil fuels will more than double between 2005 and 2030, with oil accounting for more than 90 percent of such imports.
“The total cost of this 3,000 MW is about $10 billion, of which we are planning to commit $2.25 billion,” sais S Chander, Principal Director at ADB’s Office of Information Systems and Technology.
“Our job is to catalyse enough projects to increase volumes and to make sure that the manufacturers (of low-carbon technologies) have an incentive to invest in research and development,” Chander said.
ADB invested $1.76 billion in clean energy across 29 projects last year and said it is on track to meet a goal of $2 billion in clean energy investments annually by 2013. It plans to inject $60 million into three venture capital funds that will provide early-stage financing support for new climate technology products. It expects this initiative to leverage over $400 million in private sector investment.
Kuroda said Asia had a lot to lose from climate change and needed to act quickly to develop alternate energy source. “A big push is needed to accelerate this transition,” he said. “The climate fight will be won or lost by decisions made in this region.” app
Pakistan is ready to approve a Norwegian company’s request to build a 150-megawatt wind farm, the first part of a $1 billion plan that could boost by a third the announced capacity for clean-energy power plants, according to Bloomberg News:
Pakistan is seeking to diversify its energy supplies away from oil and gas and boost electricity production. The nation has a power deficit of 3.6 gigawatts a day, or more than the output of two nuclear reactors, triggering 12-hour blackouts that cause riots and close factories in cities nationwide.
The Alternative Energy Development Board is willing to allow a project proposed by NBT AS, a Lysaker-based clean energy company that plans to build the facility in the Sindh province “wind corridor” north of Karachi, according to Said Arif Alauddin, chief executive of the government agency.
“They came to us saying they have got the money and relationship with the Chinese and they want to invest,” Alauddin said from the port city of Karachi. “As soon as they pay the fee, we will issue that letter to them. We will be able to give them the land if we can see they can deliver.”
Pakistan has almost 1 gigawatt of projects under construction or with financing agreed and 498.5 megawatts more of wind programs announced, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance data. Only 6 megawatts of wind energy facilities are operating in the nation. It’s the ninth-poorest in the Asia- Pacific region with a 2009 gross domestic product per capita of $2,609, according to Bloomberg data.
Chinese Financing
NBT Chief Executive Officer Joar Viken said he plans to tap financing for his project from one of three Chinese turbine makers that his company is talking with about supplying machinery for the facilities.
“We think Pakistan is a very good environment and has a very good framework,” Viken said in a phone interview from New York. “Because we get everything in U.S. dollars, we don’t have a huge currency risk.”
Viken said NBT would issue a tender to Goldwind Science & Technology Co., Sinovel Wind Group Co. and China Energine International Holdings Ltd. (1185) to supply the turbines. Each of the companies have credit lines with the China Development Bank Corp., a state-owned lender.
“Goldwind now is actively seeking more cooperation opportunities with domestic as well as foreign wind farm developers to expand Goldwind’s presence in overseas markets,” Thomas Yao, a spokesman for the company, said in an e-mail. “Norway’s NBT AS is among the international opportunities we are currently considering.”
A spokesman for China Energine, who asked not to be named in line with company policy, said he doesn’t know about the talks and can’t comment. Officials at Sinovel couldn’t be reached.
Financing ‘Feasible’
The financing arrangements are “feasible” because the Chinese turbine makers would not develop the projects themselves, said Eduardo Tabbush, an industry analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance in London.
“This is something we’ve seen happening more and more,” Tabbush said.
NBT envisions developing as much as 650 megawatts of wind power in Pakistan over the next few years. It already has purchased land suitable for 50 megawatts in Sindh province and is seeking a partnership with Zulfikar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science and Technology, a university in Karachi, for land for the other 100 megawatts, Alauddin said.
Support Mechanism
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The country’s electricity shortfall reaches as much as 3,628 megawatts per day, according to demand-supply data available on the ministry of power and water website.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-13/pakistan-set-to-approve-1-billion-plan-to-boost-wind-energy-production.html
Here's a report of venture fund CapAsia investing in Pakistani wind energy projects:
CapAsia, a joint venture private equity fund manager between CIMB Group and Standard Bank Group, has announced a $20.5 million investment into two wind parks in Pakistan. The capital will be deployed from its Islamic Infrastructure Fund (IIF). The assets are 50MW each wind parks currently in development in the Sidh province of Southeast Pakistan, being built by domestic corporates Fauji Foundation, Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim and the Tapal Group.
Construction will begin at the end of 2011, with a completion date targeted in March 2013. The project is part of the government's push for renewable energy investment, first announced in 2006, but only taken up in earnest in the past six months.
In 2007, former President of Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf, said he hoped alternative energy could help increase power generation by 10-12% per annum in a country where many of the 150 million people still live off the grid.
Mirza Arshad Ali Beg, President of the Pakistan Environmental Assessment Association previously said in an interview with media that he worried about the government's policy because it could not be accomplished without the help of foreign capital and goods. "For solar power we will depend on imported photovoltaic cells, for windmills we shall have to depend on an investor to bring in the necessary technology, equipment and parts, and we will see similar scenarios with biogas or energy from solid waste, or even nuclear energy."
He appears to be right. In November of 2010, Pakistan and the United States signed a wind power generation project agreement slated to be completed in 2012, which would cost $375 million for a wind farm capable of producing 150MW of electricity. It was the first of its kind, using a public-private partnership model often employed for infrastructure projects in countries like India and China. And, last month the ADB agreed to lend up to $200 million to help fund several wind farm projects that would produce 250MW per annum of power.
The potential for the use of alternative technologies to produce energy in Pakistan has never been fully explored, but the regions of Gharo and Jhimpir in the Sindh Province have better wind resources than other areas, with wind speeds averaging nearly 7 meters per second.
The IIF was developed jointly by the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and now counts CapAsia as fund manager.
http://www.avcj.com/avcj/official-record/2036244/capasia-goes-pakistan-wind-energy
Here are a few excerpts of an interesting paper on solar energy published in Scientific American:
The sun strikes every square meter of our planet with more than 1,360 watts of power. Half of that energy is absorbed by the atmosphere or reflected back into space. 700 watts of power, on average, reaches Earth’s surface. Summed across the half of the Earth that the sun is shining on, that is 89 petawatts of power. By comparison, all of human civilization uses around 15 terrawatts of power, or one six-thousandth as much. In 14 and a half seconds, the sun provides as much energy to Earth as humanity uses in a day.
The numbers are staggering and surprising. In 88 minutes, the sun provides 470 exajoules of energy, as much energy as humanity consumes in a year. In 112 hours – less than five days – it provides 36 zettajoules of energy – as much energy as is contained in all proven reserves of oil, coal, and natural gas on this planet.
If humanity could capture one tenth of one percent of the solar energy striking the earth – one part in one thousand - we would have access to six times as much energy as we consume in all forms today, with almost no greenhouse gas emissions. At the current rate of energy consumption increase – about 1 percent per year – we will not be using that much energy for another 180 years.
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The cost of solar, in the average location in the U.S., will cross the current average retail electricity price of 12 cents per kilowatt hour in around 2020, or 9 years from now. In fact, given that retail electricity prices are currently rising by a few percent per year, prices will probably cross earlier, around 2018 for the country as a whole, and as early as 2015 for the sunniest parts of America.
10 years later, in 2030, solar electricity is likely to cost half what coal electricity does today. Solar capacity is being built out at an exponential pace already. When the prices become so much more favorable than those of alternate energy sources, that pace will only accelerate.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/post.cfm?id=smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-2011-03-15
Here's an assessment of Pakistan's electricity crisis as published in Dawn:
Renowned Scientist and Member Science and Technology, Planning Commission of Pakistan Dr Samar Mubarakmand on Tuesday said the development of Thar coal was the only viable long-term solution to energy crisis prevailing in the country.
“Only Thar Coal can provide guaranteed long-term energy security to Pakistan,” he said while speaking at Islamabad Chamber of Commerce & Industry (ICCI).
He said that the solution to power shortage had to be found indigenously and in this regard the Thar coal was the best option.
He said the electricity generated through integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants would cost Rs7 per KWH. He said that coal could also be converted into coal gas above the ground in machines called surface gasifiers, and the efficiency of the conversion of coal gas to electricity is about 40 per cent.
Dr Samar said that Thar Coal reserves could play a pivotal role in meeting energy crises both in long term and short term which would enhance industrial competitiveness due to cost effectiveness.
He said that the industrial sector could not wait for long and the government should present quick solution to fill in the gap between demand and supply of energy
He said that the 41 per cent electricity of the world was being produced from the coal, adding that India was producing 64.6 per cent electricity from the coal, whereas Pakistan was only producing 2.27 per cent electricity from coal. He said that 95 per cent natural wealth was not being utilised, whereas not a single kg of coal was mined.
He said that the current energy crisis was causing loss of Rs230 billion and rendering 400,000 people jobless. Current dependable power supply hovers around 14,000MW in summer though it drops in the winter.
On the other hand power demand in 2030 would be more than 100,000MW, he added.
Meanwhile, Mahfooz Elahi, President ICCI said that energy was the key determinant of economic development of the country as Pakistan has been facing an unprecedented energy crisis for past few years.
The government must look towards building power plants and tap alternative energy resources for overcoming power shortage, he maintained.
ICCI President said that delay in fulfilment of export consignments has become a matter of routine due to power outages.
To meet the growing demands of energy, Government should exploit its domestic energy resources which would make the country self-reliant, he emphasised.
http://www.dawn.com/2011/07/06/solution-to-energy-crisis-lies-in-tapping-thar-coal.html
A renewable energy initiative led by Pakistan Engineering Council chairperson and PPP senator Rukhsana Zuberi is installing solar panels on many public buildings in Islamabad and elsewhere in Pakistan. She is an NED University mechanical engg alum.
Click here to see details of the program.
http://www.powerasia.com.pk/icaep2011/presentations/Session1/Senator_Rukhsana_Zuberi.pdf
US funding of huge dam project in Pakistan angers India, according to Miami Herald:
ISLAMABAD -- Even as U.S.-Pakistani cooperation on anti-terrorism programs is withering, the United States is considering backing the construction of a giant, $12 billion dam in Pakistan that would be the largest civilian aid project the U.S. has undertaken here in decades.
Supporters of a U.S. role in the project say American participation would mend the United States' tattered image, going a long way toward quieting widespread anti-Americanism amid criticism that the U.S. lavishes money on Pakistan's military while doing little for the country's civilian population.
Approval of the project still faces many hurdles. India objects to the dam because it would be in Kashmir, an area that India also claims. The project also is likely to face opposition from Pakistan's critics in the U.S. Congress, who've called for all aid to be cut off after Osama bin Laden was found hiding in northern Pakistan earlier this year. Recent Pakistani actions, including allegations this week that Pakistan had allowed Chinese military experts to inspect the wreckage of an American stealth helicopter that crashed in the bin Laden compound, are likely to inflame such criticism.
Still, proponents of U.S. aid for the project recall that the United States was popular in Pakistan in the 1960s and '70s, when Washington backed the construction of two enormous dams, Tarbela and Mangla.
"Getting involved in a long-term project like this is very compelling for us," said a senior U.S. official who asked not to be identified because no final decision on the project has been made. "This would be a huge demonstration of our commitment to Pakistan and our faith in the country's future."
The Diamer Basha dam would provide enough power to overcome Pakistan's crippling electricity shortage. Proponents of the project also claim that its water storage capacity, in a 50-mile-long lake that would be created behind the dam, would be so great that it would have averted last's years devastating floods, which deluged a fifth of the country, pushed 20 million people out of their homes and caused an estimated $10 billion in damage.
The U.S.-Pakistani alliance since 2001 has been plagued by accusations in Washington that Islamabad is playing a "double game" by secretly supporting Afghan insurgents, while Pakistan thinks it's been bullied into acting against its own interests and that it's been unfairly blamed for American failures in Afghanistan. The unilateral American raid that killed bin Laden in May humiliated Pakistan's powerful military, causing anti-terrorism cooperation to be all but halted.
Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/08/16/2361801/us-considers-funding-pakistani.html#ixzz1W4Cr14es
Here's a summary of BMI research report on Pakistan's electricity sector:
The new Pakistan Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country’s power consumption will rise from 77TWh in 2010 to 112TWh by the end of the forecast period, representing average annual growth of 3.9% in 2011-2020. After power industry usage and system losses, we see a supply surplus rising from the estimated 19TWh level seen in 2010 to 28TWh by 2020, assuming 3.9% average annual growth in power generation during the period.
Pakistan’s power generation in 2010 is put by BMI at 95.4TWh, having recovered strongly from the depressed 2009 level of 89.2TWh. BMI is forecasting an average 4.2% annual increase to 117.1TWh between 2011 and 2015. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to increase by an average annual 2.3% during the period to 2015, but growth looks set to accelerate later in the decade.
We expect gas-fired power generation to climb 4.0% a year between 2011 and 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 4.7% forecast to 2020. Gas-fired generation should therefore reach 47.7TWh by 2015 and 62.1TWh by 2020. The share of total power generation should therefore increase from 41.1% to 44.4% by the end of the forecast period. Under the 25-year Energy Security Plan, the government is aiming for 77.8GW of new gas-fired generating capacity by 2030, representing by far the greatest area of growth for power generation. Over the longer term, conversion of older oil plants to gas should mean oil takes a smaller slice of the power pie. It currently accounts for around 30.4% of total generation, falling to a maximum of 24.5% by 2015 thanks to greater gas, hydro and nuclear expansion.
The 25-year energy security plan envisages an increase in nuclear power generation of up to 8.8GW by 2030. The plan predicts the share of nuclear power would increase to 4.2% of the country’s total energy mix. BMI suggests that 2010 nuclear power generation was 2.7TWh, rising to 2.9TWh by 2015 and to 3.2TWh by 2020. Pakistan has huge hydro-electric potential of an estimated 42GW, but currently boasts under 7GW of installed capacity. Power generated varies depending on the extent of the country’s droughts. It has been forecast that US$20bn would be needed to exploit fully hydro-power resources.
Pakistan now shares eighth place with Malaysia in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its relatively high level of renewables (mostly hydro) usage. Several country risk factors offset the industry strength, but the country is in a good position to keep clear of the Philippines below.
http://www.bizreportshop.com/product/bmi/Pakistan-Power-Report-Q2-2011_180580.html
ADB is financing a big solar power push in Asian nations, according to the Express Tribune:
Asian Development Bank (ADB) has said it will launch the Asia Accelerated Solar Energy Development Fund with $2.25 billion as it targets solar power projects in countries including China, India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Thailand to add another 1,000 megawatts next year and 1,500MW in 2013.
“By providing an enabling environment for commercial lending and private investment in the solar energy market, we hope to encourage its rapid growth and bring solar energy nearer to grid parity – making solar energy competitive in price to conventional sources,” ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda said at a clean energy forum in Manila on Wednesday.
He said Asia needs to invest around $10 billion in the next few years to make solar power generation competitive with conventional energy sources and called for radical steps to fight climate change.
He said ADB wants Asia, home to about two-thirds of the world’s population, to add 3,000 megawatts of solar energy capacity by the end of 2013. Already this year, it has helped countries add 500 megawatts, doubling the region’s solar capacity. Fast-growing Asian economies rely heavily on fossil fuels. ADB has forecast Asia-Pacific imports of fossil fuels will more than double between 2005 and 2030, with oil accounting for more than 90 per cent of such imports.
“The total cost of this 3,000 MW is about $10 billion, of which we are planning to commit $2.25 billion,” S Chander, Principal Director at ADB’s Office of Information Systems and Technology, told reporters.
“Our job is to catalyse enough projects to increase volumes and to make sure that the manufacturers (of low-carbon technologies) have an incentive to invest in research and development,” Chander said.
ADB invested $1.76 billion in clean energy across 29 projects last year and said it is on track to meet a goal of $2 billion in clean energy investments annually by 2013. It plans to inject $60 million into three venture capital funds that will provide early-stage financing support for new climate technology products. It expects this initiative to leverage over $400 million in private sector investment.
Kuroda said Asia had a lot to lose from climate change and needed to act quickly to develop alternate energy source. “A big push is needed to accelerate this transition,” he said. “The climate fight will be won or lost by decisions made in this region.”
http://tribune.com.pk/story/194487/adb-targets-solar-power-projects-in-pakistan/
Pakistan set to announce incentives for renewable energy investors, according to Bloomberg:
Pakistan will announce its first tariff policy for clean-energy producers next month, offering premium payment rates as it seeks to attract investors to help overcome power shortfalls.
The country has given approval to 30 companies to install wind plants with an estimated capacity of 1,500 megawatts, said Arif Alauddin, chief executive of the state-run Alternative Energy Development Board.
“There will be a feed-in tariff based on a cost-plus approach,” he said in an Aug. 23 interview at his office in Islamabad. The tariff policy “offers an extremely good rate of return,” with most of the risks covered by the government, he said.
Developers may be able to get as much 18 percent returns on their investment, he said, declining to say what the feed-in tariff rates will be.
Pakistan is seeking to diversify its energy supplies away from oil and gas and boost electricity production. The nation has a power deficit of 3 to 4 gigawatts a day, or more than the output of two nuclear reactors, triggering 12-hour blackouts that cause riots and close factories in cities nationwide.
Financial Closure
The feed-in tariffs will speed the development of projects in the pipeline, Alauddin said. Companies that are close to achieving financial close include Zorlu Enerji Elektrik Uretim AS (ZOREN), a Turkish power utility, China International Water & Electric Corp. and Fauji Foundation’s two plants in Sindh province, he said.
Pakistan has almost 1 gigawatt of wind-power projects under construction or with financing agreed upon and 498.5 megawatts more of plants announced, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance data. Only 6 megawatts of wind-energy facilities are operating in the nation.
Commercially exploitable wind exists in many parts of Pakistan, especially in Sindh and the coastal area of Balochistan. Zorlu Enerji’s project is Pakistan’s first privately owned and financed wind farm.
Pakistan is the ninth-poorest country in the Asia-Pacific region with a 2009 gross domestic product per capita of $2,609, according to Bloomberg data. Its fight with Taliban militants in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, a debt pileup among energy companies and unwillingness of banks to finance power projects are creating some “barriers” for potential investors, Alauddin said.
“The engineering, procurement and construction cost and the turbine cost that are offered to Pakistani investors appear to be higher than what is being offered elsewhere in the world, maybe 20 percent to 25 percent higher,” he said.
Pakistan is seeking to derive at least 5 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2030, the development board said in March. Last year, 53 percent came from natural gas, 30 percent from oil and the rest from coal, nuclear and hydropower, according to data from BP Plc. The London-based oil company didn’t measure the sources of renewable energy there.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-25/pakistan-offers-renewable-energy-incentives-to-tackle-shortages.html
ADB assures to consider financing for Bhasha Dam,reports Daily Times:
Asian Development Bank (ADB) is considering various options in a positive direction to finance multi-billion dollars Diamer Basha dam project.
This was stated by ADB Director General Jaun Miranda, while talking to the Federal Minister for Water and Power, Syed Naveed Qamar here today. A three-member ADB delegation called on him here on Friday.
The ADB also agreed to provide counter guarantees to the investors for investing in the wind power generation projects in Pakistan, he assured the meeting. The wind power generation projects will generate cheaper electricity in the country. Miranda said that the bank is already providing financial assistance for power distribution enhancement project and will continue its support for the project in order to improve the energy efficiency. Transmission and distribution system and energy loss reduction programme are also being funded by ADB for all distribution companies (Discos). He said that the bank is ready to expand its funding for replacement of all obsolete distribution network. The bank will provide financial assistance for free distribution of 30 million energy saver bulbs in the country. These energy savers will help reducing peak hours demand over 1000 Megawatts. He also said that the bank would fully support the energy conservation initiatives of the government.
The Minister for Water and Power appreciated the role of the ADB for improvement in energy sector and said that the support of the bank for energy efficiency programme will help save energy and reduction in the transmission and distribution losses. The Minister also thanked for providing counter guarantee facility for wind power projects. The Minister also briefed the delegation regarding new energy sector improvement initiatives like operation and maintenance contract of generation companies through private sector and conversion of existing independent power producers to cheaper fuels. He also asked the ADB to finance mega-water and power sector projects to end the crises in these sectors.
The ADB director also discussed current status of power sector reforms, energy efficiency programmes, central power purchasing agency, independence of Discos. The Minister also assured that all efforts would be made to timely complete the existing projects being funded by ADB.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011\08\27\story_27-8-2011_pg5_2
Pakistan will unveil a new renewables feed-in tariff (FIT) next month as it looks to narrow its economically-crippling energy gap, according to rechargenews.com:
The Pakistani government first launched a FIT in 2006, but the package bore little fruit and the country still has just 6MW of operational wind capacity.
The new FIT is aimed at jump-starting renewables in a nation that faces a 3-4GW energy shortfall, made worse by the devastating floods in 2010.
In sharp contrast to Pakistan’s paltry wind portfolio, neighbouring India had more than 13GW installed at the end of 2010, according to the Global Wind Energy Council.
While Islamabad has not spelled out the new FIT rates, a spokesman for the state-run Alternative Energy Development Board says investors will be able to net internal rates of return of up to 18% under the new support regime.
The government has already given the go-ahead to 1.5GW of projects, with several developers near to reaching financial close. These include Turkish utility Zorlu Enerji and China International Water & Electric.
Zorlu Enerji’s 49.5MW project near Hyderabad will be Pakistan’s first privately-owned wind farm.
In 2010, for the first time, more wind capacity was added in emerging economies than in the traditional wind markets in the OECD countries.
Industry figures say attitudes towards wind energy have shifted dramatically in developing countries like Pakistan in recent years, as officials come to grips with the immense opportunity wind brings for rapidly adding generation capacity.
Pakistan has a target of a 5% share of power from renewables by 2030.
http://www.rechargenews.com/business_area/politics/article274782.ece
Here's an interesting excerpt from a report about Pakistan's power sector published in Miami Herald:
There is no place where the country's energy shortage isn't profound. Rural areas are without electricity for up to 16 hours a day while towns often go without for as many as 12 hours daily, forcing factories to close and plunging homes into darkness.
Natural gas supplies are rationed, with factories in the country's most populous province, Punjab, going without two days a week.
Pakistan's economic output is cut by at least 4 percent because of the shortages, the government estimates, something that hampers the country's hopes to battle extremism by creating more economic opportunities. The outages also feed political discontent, triggering frequent, if local, street protests.
Solving the energy problems is a top priority for the United States' aid program, with a State Department delegation here this week, led by Ambassador Carlos Pascual, the Obama administration's special envoy on international energy affairs.
But Pakistan's plans for a 1,700-mile natural gas pipeline from Iran, which would provide Pakistan with a cheaper source of fuel for electricity generation, is a stumbling block.
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Despite Pakistan's huge hydroelectric potential, it hasn't built a big dam project since the 1970s. Since the U.S.-backed government of President Asif Zardari was elected in 2008, a mushrooming chain of "circular" debt has enveloped the power sector.
The government has assumed $3.6 billion of the power industry's debt. The government-owned power grid owes another $2.5 billion to private-sector generators, even as the government, according to Finance Ministry figures, spent at least $7.4 billion on electricity subsidies during the 2008-2010 period.
Washington and international lenders such as the International Monetary Fund have repeatedly urged Pakistan to cut subsidies, which anemic government finances cannot afford.
Critics say that the government hasn't added to the electricity infrastructure in its three-and-a-half year term, while sinking billions of dollars into unproductive subsidies and taking on debt.
Of the $3.6 billion debt the government assumed, half were bills the government itself hadn't paid, said Ejaz Rafiq Qureshi, the spokesman of the Pakistan Electric Power Co., the state-owed national electricity grid. The rest is owed by private consumers.
At the end of August, a group of nine private power plants demanded that the government pay them within 30 days $540 million it owed for power generation.
Roughly half of Pakistan's current electricity output of 13,000 megawatts comes from the private generators. But there is more capacity that the government doesn't use. Government-owned equipment that could generate another 2,000 megawatts has been sidelined because of poor maintenance. Private equipment that could generate another 2,500 megawatts has been taken out of service because the government hasn't paid its bills, said Abdullah Yusuf, who represents the private producers. Combined, that amounts roughly to the entire immediate shortfall.
"If you had this capacity available, straight away your problem would be solved," said Yusuf.
A longer-term energy project is Pakistan's proposed $12 billion Diamer Basha dam, which would add 4,500 megawatts to Pakistan's electricity generating capacity. Washington is considering providing significant funding to the project. Separately, the U.S. Agency for International Development is currently working on projects that will add 900 megawatts to the Pakistani grid next year.
Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/09/16/2410787_p2/pakistan-search-for-energy-could.html#ixzz1YBKY4KxS
Here's a US State Dept blog post on US AID efforts for energy projects in Pakistan:
The United States and Pakistan reviewed progress on ongoing energy programs and recommitted themselves to pursuing practical solutions to Pakistan's energy needs during the latest Pakistan-United States Energy Dialogue this week. Ambassador Carlos Pascual, U.S. Department of State Special Envoy for International Energy Affairs, joined Pakistani Minister of Water and Power Naveed Qamar to reaffirm the partnership. They met September 14-15 in Islamabad.
"As all Pakistanis know, reliable and affordable energy is critical to Pakistan's prosperity. Without it, businesses can't operate and families can't light and cool their homes. Pakistan's future depends on power," Ambassador Pascual said at the opening of the Dialogue. "There are no quick fixes to this crisis, but the United States and international partners are willing to help. We will continue to support Pakistan in its efforts to resolve this energy crisis."
Ambassador Pascual reaffirmed the United States' long-term commitment to working with Pakistan to establish a commercially-viable and sustainable power sector. During the Dialogue, the U.S. and Pakistan reviewed ongoing cooperation in the energy sector. USAID highlighted its ongoing energy programs, which will bring more than 900 MW of power to the Pakistani grid by 2012. The programs include construction and rehabilitation of three hydropower plants (Satpara, Gomal Zam and Tarbela) and three thermal power plants (Guddu, Muzafargarh, and Jamshoro).
This extra energy will bring power to approximately 7 million people, eradicate 20 percent of Pakistan's existing power shortage, reduce annual oil imports by more than one million barrels and help store water for irrigation and flood control. The increases to the energy sector will also bring job opportunities for as many as 2.5 million heads of households.
The U.S. delegation welcomed Pakistan's plans, elaborated in the Integrated Energy Sector Recovery Report and Plan, to put the power sector on a commercially-viable and sustainable path. In the Dialogue, Pakistan underscored its commitment to strengthen energy sector governance and efficiency, pursue regulatory reforms, improve financial management, and create a business climate that helps drive investment.
Key topics of discussion at the energy dialogue included: an overview of the power sector and challenges it faces; the current policy and regulatory framework, and possible reforms; availability of primary fuels; the role of the private sector; and regional energy initiatives.
The U.S. underscored that these measures will help develop a stronger foundation for investment. Both sides agreed to continue technical exchanges in areas that can help improve power availability. The U.S. also welcomed Pakistan's continued engagement with international financial institutions and the private sector to assess feasibility of viable hydropower projects and appreciates its commitment to international environmental and societal standards, while also focusing on the importance of water management.
http://blogs.state.gov/index.php/site/entry/us_pakistan_energy_solutions
Increased load shedding in Pakistan alone has cost 400,000 jobs in recent years, according to the World Bank. Although the World Bank report does not address it directly, the anecdotal evidence suggests that almost all of Pakistan's job growth for the decade occurred from 2000-2007 when the economy showed robust gdp growth. During 2000-2007, Pakistan's economy became one of the four fastest growing economies in Asia with its growth rate averaging 7.0 per cent per year for most of this period. As a result of strong economic growth, Pakistan succeeded in reducing poverty by one-half, creating almost 13 million jobs, halving the country's debt burden, raising foreign exchange reserves to a comfortable position and propping the country's exchange rate, restoring investors' confidence and most importantly, taking Pakistan out of the IMF Program. Contrary to its public criticism of the Musharraf-era economy, the preceding facts were acknowledged by the current government in a Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) for 2008/09-2009/10, while signing agreement with the IMF on November 20, 2008.
http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/09/pakistan-tops-south-asia-jobs-growth.html
Here's an excerpt of a report in The Nation about an International Coal Conf in Karachi:
The international conference was told that Thar region of Sindh province is endowed with mammoth coal (lignite) reserves estimated to be 175 billion tonnes which can produce 100,000MW of electricity for next 300 years and can be a key to energy security and economic prosperity.
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“The government has started working on the policy of retrofitting 5300MW of furnace oil based power plants to coal-based initially on imported coal and then on indigenous coal when available,” he (Minister Naveed Qamar) informed the audience.
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Removing the misconceptions about Thar coal, Dr Marcos Leontidis, mining expert from Greece, said that the stripping ratio in Thar is around 6.6: 1, which is much better than many lignite mines in the world including Greece.
Dr Larry Thomas, coal expert from United Kingdom, said that sulphur content in Thar is acceptable being at 0.7%, which is lower than found in many other lignite resources already being used in the world and its moisture levels are same or even less than found in most of the lignite mines in the world. He further said the coal from Thar although may not be exportable to other countries but can be transported to be used in other parts of the province after drying.
Nigel Pickett from SRK-UK in his presentation said renewable energy cannot provide Pakistan reliable energy supplies due to its seasonal and cyclic nature. It has to be part of our energy mix to meet the peak demands and reduce fossil fuel consumption. Volatility of oil prices in 2007 brought heavy stress on the economy and indigenous coal provides the only option to achieve energy security for the country.
Zubair Motiwala, Chairman Sindh Board of Investment, briefed the forum about investment potential of Thar coal and said many international companies from China, South Korea, Germany, Czech Republic, Australia, UK and Turkey have shown their interest in investment in coal mining and power generation in Thar coal and also in the infrastructure projects. He also informed that the Government of Sindh is conducting 3rd International Competitive Bidding for blocks VIII, IX and X of Thar Coalfield and also blocks in Sonda and Badin for attracting international companies to develop coal mining and power generation projects in Sindh.
Mohammad Younus Dagha, Provincial Secretary Coal and Energy Development Department/MD Thar Coal and Energy Board stressed the need to create an ideal energy mix by replacing imported furnace oil to indigenous coal for power generation.
http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Business/23-Oct-2011/5300MW-plants-will-be-converted-to-coal-Qamar
Here's David Brooks of NY Times on "shale gas revolution" in America:
The United States is a country that has received many blessings, and once upon a time you could assume that Americans would come together to take advantage of them. But you can no longer make that assumption. The country is more divided and more clogged by special interests. Now we groan to absorb even the most wondrous gifts.
A few years ago, a business genius named George P. Mitchell helped offer such a gift. As Daniel Yergin writes in “The Quest,” his gripping history of energy innovation, Mitchell fought through waves of skepticism and opposition to extract natural gas from shale. The method he and his team used to release the trapped gas, called fracking, has paid off in the most immense way. In 2000, shale gas represented just 1 percent of American natural gas supplies. Today, it is 30 percent and rising.
John Rowe, the chief executive of the utility Exelon, which derives almost all its power from nuclear plants, says that shale gas is one of the most important energy revolutions of his lifetime. It’s a cliché word, Yergin told me, but the fracking innovation is game-changing. It transforms the energy marketplace.
The U.S. now seems to possess a 100-year supply of natural gas, which is the cleanest of the fossil fuels. This cleaner, cheaper energy source is already replacing dirtier coal-fired plants. It could serve as the ideal bridge, Amy Jaffe of Rice University says, until renewable sources like wind and solar mature.
Already shale gas has produced more than half a million new jobs, not only in traditional areas like Texas but also in economically wounded places like western Pennsylvania and, soon, Ohio. If current trends continue, there are hundreds of thousands of new jobs to come.
Chemical companies rely heavily on natural gas, and the abundance of this new source has induced companies like Dow Chemical to invest in the U.S. rather than abroad. The French company Vallourec is building a $650 million plant in Youngstown, Ohio, to make steel tubes for the wells. States like Pennsylvania, Ohio and New York will reap billions in additional revenue. Consumers also benefit. Today, natural gas prices are less than half of what they were three years ago, lowering electricity prices. Meanwhile, America is less reliant on foreign suppliers.
All of this is tremendously good news, but, of course, nothing is that simple. The U.S. is polarized between “drill, baby, drill” conservatives, who seem suspicious of most regulation, and some environmentalists, who seem to regard fossil fuels as morally corrupt and imagine we can switch to wind and solar overnight.
The shale gas revolution challenges the coal industry, renders new nuclear plants uneconomic and changes the economics for the renewable energy companies, which are now much further from viability. So forces have gathered against shale gas, with predictable results.
The clashes between the industry and the environmentalists are now becoming brutal and totalistic, dehumanizing each side. Not-in-my-backyard activists are organizing to prevent exploration. Environmentalists and their publicists wax apocalyptic.
Like every energy source, fracking has its dangers. The process involves injecting large amounts of water and chemicals deep underground. If done right, this should not contaminate freshwater supplies, but rogue companies have screwed up and there have been instances of contamination.
The wells, which are sometimes beneath residential areas, are serviced by big trucks that damage the roads and alter the atmosphere in neighborhoods. A few sloppy companies could discredit the whole sector...........
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/04/opinion/brooks-the-shale-gas-revolution.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=brooks&st=cse
Pakistan planning to purchase two nuclear power plants from China, reports The Express Tribune:
ISLAMABAD:
Pakistan has planned to purchase two nuclear power plants with a combined capacity of 2,000 megawatts from China, which will be utilised for setting up Karachi Nuclear Power Plant-2 (Kanupp-2) and Kanupp-3 and help mitigate the energy crisis.
According to documents available with The Express Tribune, China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) and Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) are likely to enter into an agreement to conduct a joint study to finalise design modifications, which would enable Pakistan to acquire two nuclear power plants, each having power generation capacity of 1,000 megawatts.
After completion of this project, a contract for establishing Kanupp-2 and Kanupp-3 will be negotiated.
The Planning Commission has said CNNC may be asked to grant intellectual property rights for the existing 1,000-megawatt plant and suggest steps which could help Pakistan avoid violation of property rights.
China has three state-owned corporations, which can own and operate nuclear power plants, including China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), China Guangdong Nuclear Power Holding Company (CGNPC) and China Power Investment Corporation (CPIC).
CGNPC currently operates four nuclear power plants of 3,758 megawatts in China and also involved in 16 other projects having capacity of 25,000 megawatts, which are under construction. The company’s focus has been on three-loop 1,000-megawatt plants.
The Planning Commission also questioned whether PAEC had approached the three nuclear power plant developers in order to ensure fair competition in offering the plants. “Moreover comparison of intellectual property rights of other nuclear power plant vendors may also be brought out,” the commission said.
In an attempt to increase power generation capacity, the government focuses on developing nuclear energy on a relatively bigger scale. Accordingly, the Energy Security Action Plan has envisaged increasing the share of nuclear power by installing 8,800-megawatt nuclear power plants by 2030.
The import of nuclear power plants will lead to electricity generation at cheaper rates compared to the thermal source, contributing to tackling the power crisis. About a month ago, power shortages reached their peak at around 8,000 to 8,500 megawatts, forcing long hours of outages across the country.
The load-shedding has disrupted industrial activity, denting overall economic growth of the country, which stood at 2.4 per cent last fiscal year.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/289908/energy-requirement-pakistan-to-buy-two-nuclear-power-plants-from-china/
Here's an Arab News report on Islamic Dev Bank funding a hydroelectric project in Pakistan:
JEDDAH: The Islamic Development Bank (IDB) has signed a $60 million lease finance deal with Pakistan for the development of the Patrind Hydropower Project.
The agreement was signed by Ahmed Al-Hariri, manager, country operations division, Southeast Asia and Farouk Javed, CEO, Star Hydropower Limited in Islamabad.
The power plant is expected to be completed by 2016 and add 147 MW of power to the country’s national grid, helping the Asian country increase utilization of its renewable resources and generate power in an economically sustainable manner to reduce dependency on imported fuel.
“The project represents 100 percent foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country. After 30 years concession period the project will be handed over to the government of Pakistan,” a statement on the South Asian News Agency (SANA) said.
According to data from the IDB, Pakistan is the second-largest beneficiary of IDB financing.
Since the bank’s inception in the mid-1970’s the multi-lender has committed $7.6 billion including 85 projects worth $2.2 billion mainly in the transportation and power-generation sectors to the country.
In addition to the financing being committed by the IDB, funding is also being provided by the Export-Import Bank of Korea, the Asian Development Bank and the International Finance Corporation for a total injection of nearly $400 million for the project.
The project, according to a study carried out by its sponsors, Star Hydropower Limited, will call for the resettlement of 28 residences in the small village of Patrind on the Kumhar River.
“In Pakistan the increasing demand for electric power is now outstripping the supply. The gap between supply and demand has resulted in load shedding, causing serious setback to national economy. To close this gap, different possibilities for electrical power generation have been identified including a series of hydropower projects,” the report stated.
http://arabnews.com/economy/article555273.ece
Here's a NY Times story on India benefiting from plummeting prices of solar panels and solar energy:
Over the last decade, India has opened the state-dominated power-generating industry to private players, while leaving distribution and rate-setting largely in government hands. European countries heavily subsidize solar power by agreeing to buy it for decades at a time, but the subsidies in India are lower and solar operators are forced into to greater competition, helping push down costs.
This month, the government held its second auction to determine the price at which its state-owned power trading company — NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam — would buy solar-generated electricity for the national grid. The average winning bid was 8.77 rupees (16.5 cents) per kilowatt hour.
That is about twice the price of coal-generated power, but it was about 27 percent lower than the winning bids at the auction held a year ago. Germany, the world’s biggest solar-power user, pays about 17.94 euro cents (23 American cents) per kilowatt hour.
India still significantly lags behind European countries in the use of solar. Germany, for example, had 17,000 megawatts of solar power capacity at the end of 2010. But India, which gets more than 300 days of sunlight a year, is a more suitable place to generate solar power. And being behind is now benefiting India, as panel prices plummet, enabling it to spend far less to set up solar farms than countries that pioneered the technology.
In its solar power auctions, moreover, NTPC is not creating open-ended contracts. The last auction, for example, was for a total of only 350 megawatts, which will cap the government’s costs. The assumption is that the price of solar power will continue to decline, eventually approaching the cost of electricity generated through conventional methods.
Most Indian power plants are fueled by coal and generate electricity at about 4 rupees (7.5 cents) per kilowatt hour — less than half of solar’s cost now. In this month’s auction, the recent winning bids were comparable to what India’s industrial and commercial users pay for electricity — from 8 to 10 rupees. And solar’s costs are competitive with power plants and back-up generators that burn petroleum-based fuels, whose electricity costs about 10 rupees per kilowatt hour.
“At least during daytime, photovoltaic panels will compete with oil-generated electricity more than anything else” in India, said Cédric Philibert, a senior analyst at the International Energy Agency in Paris. “This comparison is becoming better and better every month.”
In addition to the federal government, several of India’s states like Gujarat, where Khadoda is located, are also buying power at subsidized rates from solar companies like Azure Power.
Analysts do not expect India’s solar rollout to be problem free. They say some developers have probably bid too aggressively in the federal auctions and may not be able to build their plants fast or cheap enough to survive. Consequently, or because their bids were speculative, some developers are trying to sell their government power agreements to third parties, analysts say, even though such flipping is against the auction rules.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/29/business/energy-environment/in-solar-power-india-begins-living-up-to-its-own-ambitions.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&ref=todayspaper
Vestas has received an order for a total capacity of 50.4 MW, consisting of 28 units of the V90-1.8 MW wind turbines for a wind farm project in Nooriabad in the Jimphir region of Pakistan, according to Reve:
The contract comprises supply of the wind turbines, supervision of the installation on site, commissioning as well as a VestasOnline® Business SCADA system and a two-year service and availability agreement. Delivery of the wind turbines is scheduled to start in the first half of 2012 and the wind power project is expected to be completed by the end of 2012.
The order has been placed by Zorlu Energy Pakistan Ltd., which is a 100 per cent owned subsidiary of the Turkish Zorlu Enerji Electricity Generation Inc. In 2006, the company signed an agreement with the Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) of the Government of Pakistan to build the first wind farm in Pakistan for a total capacity of 56.4 MW. The first phase of the wind power project comprising 6 MW has been in operation since 2009 and the second phase comprising the 50.4 MW will be delivered by Vestas.
Murat Sungur Bursa, CEO of Zorlu Energy Group declares: “We take pride in building the first wind power plant in Pakistan, which will lead the wind industry in the country and, hopefully, will motivate other investors to seek opportunities in the region. In this wind farm, Vestas is a very strong technology partner offering us reliable and efficient products. We trust that they will deliver the best solutions with high-quality service and professional sector experience both locally and globally. Our partnership on this particular project will have a positive impact within the region in terms of social and economic welfare and it will strengthen our collaboration.”
“We are pleased to have been chosen as preferred partner for this project by Zorlu Enerji, one of the largest energy companies in Turkey. They have shown their trust in our capabilities and our team to support them in this new challenging project in Pakistan ensuring business case certainty and a high return on the investment,” says Olcayto Yigit, Director, sales region Turkey, Vestas Türkiye.
Juan Araluce, President, Vestas Mediterranean, concludes: “We are extremely proud to start our operations in a new market, such as Pakistan, through the development of this important project together with the Zorlu Energy Group. I am very confident that this project will pave the way for an even stronger relationship between both companies.”
Sean Sutton, President, Vestas Asia Pacific, concludes: “We are glad to be part of this prestigious project in Pakistan. We believe that this milestone puts Vestas in an advantageous position to encourage and support the development of wind power in this country going forward.”
Zorlu Energy Pakistan’s 56.4 MW wind power plant will have an estimated annual production of 159,000 MWh per year, which corresponds to the residential electricity consumption of approx. 350,000 persons in Pakistan. Moreover, the wind farm will save the environment from more than 90,000 tons of CO2 emissions on an annual basis.
As part of its short-term policy, the Government of Pakistan introduced in 2006 a Policy for Development of Renewable Energy for Power Generation with the aim of utilizing the unexploited wind resources in the country as well as of attracting new investments to Pakistan. This cooperation between Zorlu Enerji and Vestas will be a landmark to pave the way for developing wind energy in the country.
http://www.evwind.es/noticias.php?id_not=15518
Stored solar? Here's NY Times on storing solar energy for the hours when the sun is not shining:
..That would be solar thermal power, which harnesses heat from the sun and converts it to steam to make electricity as the need arises, especially when the sun has disappeared behind a cloud or dropped below the horizon.
Electricity is unique among major commodities in that it must be produced and consumed simultaneously. It can be stored in a battery, of course, but for now, that technology’s costs are so high that batteries are used mostly to smooth out production from renewable sources, not to save it for later.
The economics of a plant that can store bulk amounts of energy are a bit arcane. At the simplest level, the idea is to gather the sun’s heat when it is available and save it until prices for electricity reach a peak. At the moment, though, prices peak when the sun is high in the sky, because that is when the demand for power, mostly for air-conditioning, is highest. Some experts think it will be years before the power system is so saturated with solar photovoltaics that thermal storage becomes worthwhile.
“As the world exists now, what you’re doing with storage is taking high-priced peak potential generation and moving it to off-peak,” said George Sterzinger, director of the Renewable Energy Policy Project, a nonprofit group in Washington.
But one solar thermal plant with storage is already in service, near Seville, Spain. Built by Torresol Energy, the plant is small, just under 20 megawatts. And four are in construction or on the drawing boards in the American Southwest, as I explained in my article.
Their backers are betting that photovoltaics will get cheap and will drive down the price of electricity in daylight hours. But there are other reasons that energy storage might be a good deal from a financial point of view.
One is that the two biggest forms of renewable energy, wind and solar, have a tendency to gear up and then fall off very quickly, at least by the standards of conventional generators. If the rest of the system has to respond, then a lot of plants running on coal or natural gas would have to increase their output or cut it very quickly.
If the fraction of energy derived from renewable sources is small, that’s not a big problem; if solar makes up, say, 2 percent of production, and if it falls by half in a few minutes, the rest of the system can compensate. But if solar makes up 20 percent, the potential problem gets bigger.
Paul Denholm, a researcher at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, in Boulder, Colo., recently estimated that 5 percent of annual photovoltaic production might have to be shut off because it came at the wrong time or introduced too much instability into the system. Adding storage, he said, could be worth 0.3 cents per kilowatt-hour. (That sounds small, but it’s an appreciable fraction of the national average retail price of a kilowatt-hour, which is around 11 cents.)
Worth even more is the value of a source that can be counted on to produce when needed, as opposed to when the sun is shining; that’s worth 0.7 cents to 2 cents, he calculated.
There are other ways to store electricity, but all of them incur costs, both for equipment and the energy. The “round-trip efficiency” of a solar thermal system – that is, the ratio of energy recovered compared with the energy invested – is in the range of 95 percent. That’s far higher than the ratio for the biggest conventional form of storage, pumped hydro, which involves pumping water up a hill and letting it turn a turbine to make electricity on the way down later.
Another technique is storing energy by compressing air. But with either of these, the energy being stored might have come from a coal-fired plant, which will not help the environment or help a utility meet its quota for renewable energy.
Excerpts from The Nation story on $513 million ADB loan for water and power projects in Pakistan:
Pakistan and Asian Development Bank (ADB) has singed two loan agreements worth of $513.24 million that included $270 million for the tranche-2 of the Punjab Irrigated Agriculture Investment Programme (PIAIP) and $243.24 million for tranche-3 of the Power Transmission Enhancement Investment Programme.
Secretary Irrigation Department Punjab and Country Director Asian Development Bank in Pakistan have signed the first agreement of "Punjab Irrigated Agriculture Investment Programme (PIAIP) Tranche-II". This agreement aims at sustainable improved delivery of services for irrigated agriculture and better water management in Punjab. The project aims to provide reliable irrigation supplies to the Lower Chenab Canal Command area.
According to the agreement this project would include construction of a new barrage complex to be located approximately 275 meters downstream of the exiting Khanki Headwork on the river Chenab, which new barrage complex shall include a main weir and under sluice; gats and hosting arrangements; and operating deck and access road bridge. Construction of a canal head regulator adjacent to the new barrage and a lead channel to the existing lower Chenab canal and the dismantling of the existing Khanki Headwork and provision of implementation support to the project executing agency for construction supervision and management expenses of PMO barrage. The project is expected to be completed by the 30th June 2016. Secretary Economic Affairs Division and Country Director Asian Development Bank in Pakistan singed the second agreement Power Transmission Enhancement Investment Programme tracnhe-III.
This agreement targets to enhance the efficiency of the overall power transmission system and to provide an adequate and reliable power supply to a greater number of commercial, industrial and residential consumers. The projects shall comprise following, a new 600km 500 KV transmission line from Jahmshoro to Moro, Daudu and Rahim Yar Khan, a new 500 KV grid stations a Moro and expansion/ augmentation of 3 existing 500 KV grid stations at Jamshoro. Dadu and Rahim Yar Khan. A new 125 KM 220 KV transmission line from UCH-II power plant to the 220-grid station at Sibbi, and a connection between the UCH-I and UCH-II power plants. A new 200 KV grid station at Mansehra and procurement of transmission system equipment. This project is expected to be completed by 31st December 2015.
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/business/19-Jan-2012/adb-signs-loan-deals-with-pakistan-513-24m-for-power-agriculture
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