Monday, June 10, 2013

Massive Growth in Electrical Connections Worsened Demand-Supply Gap in Pakistan

Pakistan has made remarkable progress in electrification of its towns and villages both in absolute terms and as percentage of population over the past two decades, according to a recently-released report titled "Global Tracking Framework" issued jointly by the World Bank and the International Energy Agency. This report at least partly explains the dramatic increase in demand-supply gap and consequent increase in load-shedding in Pakistan.

The report says that 60 percent of Pakistanis had access to electricity in 1990, 80 percent in 2000 and 91 percent in 2010. By 2010, 88 percent people of rural and 98 percent of the country's urban population had access to electricity. Comparable figures in India are as follows: 51% in 1990, 62% 2000, and 75% in 2010. 93% of urban and 67% of rural Indians had access to electricity in 2010.

The report identifies top 20 countries with the largest number of people to have gained access to electricity over the past 20 years. Of these, 12 are in Asia. They brought electrical service to 1.3 billion people  (of the 1.7 billion electrified globally between 1990 and 2010), 283 million more than their population increase. The most impressive expansion of electrification occurred in India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The advances in these populous countries are of enormous significance for achievement of the global universal access target.

The detailed World Bank report identified India as the most deprived country in terms of access to energy: as many as 306.2 million of its people are still without this basic utility. The remaining 19 nations lacking access to energy, with the number of deprived people is as follows: Nigeria (82.4 million), Bangladesh (66.4 million), Ethiopia (63.9 million), Congo (55.9 million), Tanzania (38.2 million), Kenya (31.2 million), Sudan (30.9 million), Uganda (28.5 million), Myanmar (24.6 million), Mozambique (19.9 million), Afghanistan (18.5 million), North Korea (18 million), Madagascar (17.8 million), the Philippines (15.6 million), Pakistan (15 million), Burkina Faso (14.3 million), Niger (14.1 million), Indonesia (14 million) and Malawi 13.6 million).

In addition to access to electricity, the report also details access to non-solid fuels like oil and natural gas (fuels other than firewood, dung or charcoal commonly used in poor countries for cooking) as a key parameter of progress in terms of energy. Such access helps reduce environmental pollution and associated human health hazards.

The goal of universal access to modern energy depends critically on  the efforts of 20 high-impact countries which include Bangladesh, China, India and Pakistan. Together, these 20 countries account for more than two thirds of the population currently living without electricity (0.9 billion people) and more than four-fifths of the global population without access to non-solid fuels (2.4 billion people). In terms of electricity, India has by far the largest access deficit; exceeding 300 million people, while for non-solid cooking fuel, India and China each have access deficits exceeding 600 million people.

This tracking report is part of UN's Sustainable Energy For All (SE4ALL) Initiative launched in 2012.  The initiative recognizes the importance of universal access to modern energy as a key part of empowering the poor and lifting large numbers of people out of poverty and deprivation.

For the newly-connected rural poor in Pakistan, even a couple of hours of electricity a day is better than no electricity all. Even a brief period of service enables them to charge up their cell phones and watch a little bit of television to stay informed and connected.These small things significantly improve the quality of life of those who lived without any electrical connections in the last decade or two. Eventually one hopes that the energy crisis will be resolved to  bring supply and demand in better balance.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan Leads South Asia in Clean Energy

India's Air Most Toxic in the World

World Bank Data on Energy Use Per Capita

Pakistan Needs Shale Gas Revolution

US Census Bureau's International Stats  

Pakistan's Vast Shale Gas Reserves

US AID Overview of Pakistan's Power Sector 

US Can Help Pakistan Overcome Energy Crisis

Abundant and Cheap Coal Electricity

US Dept of Energy Report on Shale Gas

Pakistan's Twin Energy Crises

Pakistan's Electricity Crisis

Pakistan's Gas Pipeline and Distribution Network

Pakistan's Energy Statistics

US Department of Energy Data


Hopewins said...

^^RH: "The report says that 60 percent of Pakistanis had access to electricity in 1990, 80 percent in 2000 and 91 percent in 2010."

1990-2000 Track record:
Pakistan up by 20 Percentage-points
India up by 11 Percentage-points

2000-2010 Track record:
Pakistan up by 11 Percentage-points
India up by 13 Percentage-points

Sharif/Bhutto's merry-go-round beat India's performance by 20-to-11 in the 1990s. Military rule was beated by India in the 2000s.

Well? ARE YOU going to give credit to our DEMOCRACY of the 1990s or not?

Riaz Haq said...

HWJ: "Sharif/Bhutto's merry-go-round beat India's performance by 20-to-11 in the 1990s. Military rule was beated by India in the 2000s.

Well? ARE YOU going to give credit to our DEMOCRACY of the 1990s or not?"

There several possible explanations:

First, it probably has something to do with low-hanging fruit picked first. For example, people living closer to the national grid being added in 1990s and the job getting more difficult later in 2000s to add those living in more remote areas.

Second, the politicians often do things to gain quick popularity by doing things like giving service connections for elect and gas that create other serious problems such as increasing load-shedding for existing consumers.

Hopewins said...

^^RH: "First, it probably has something to do with low-hanging fruit picked first....
Second, blah, blah...."

How much CAPACITY was added during the 1990s and how much was added during 2000s?

As I hear it, Mushy added ZERO capacity. It was the long-term investments made during Bhutto-Sharif's merry-go-round that paid off during Mushy's consumption boom from 2003-2007.

So DEMOCRACY was slow-growth (higher ICOR), but worked for the long-term. Khaki-rule was fast-growth (lower ICOR), but was short-sighted. Do you agree?

Riaz Haq said...

HWJ: "It was the long-term investments made during Bhutto-Sharif's merry-go-round that paid off during Mushy's consumption boom from 2003-2007."

Almost all of the capacity in 1990s was added by Benazir Bhutto's govt, not Nawaz Sharif's.

Now it's become the source of the current unprecedented electricity crisis.

Pakistan's installed generating capacity is about 20,000 MW. It exceeds current demand of 17,000 MW and actual supply of just 10,000 MW. The capacity utilization is only 50% mainly because the producers do not buy sufficient fuel and choose to operate at only 50% of capacity and still enjoy soaring profits. A third of the installed generating capacity is owned by the independent power producers (IPPs). The current IPP contracts guarantee payments and profits with no requirement for fuel efficiency.

Most private investors (IPPs) built oil-powered inefficient plants because of their low construction costs and short lead times, and the oil price has skyrocketed since these plants were built in 1990s. The result is 18-20 hours of load shedding across most of Pakistan in the scorching summer heat in spite of the fact the taxpayers have shelled out billions of dollars in subsidies to the power sector since 2008.

Hopewins said...

^^RH: "The capacity utilization is only 50% mainly because the producers do not buy sufficient fuel and choose to operate at only 50% of capacity and still enjoy soaring profits"

It's not as if each producer is working at 50% capacity. The problem is that 50% of producers are not producing ANYTHING for price, payment and unpaid-debt reasons.

For example, 30% of our power (6000MW) comes from WAPDA-hydro, which is unaffected by 100$/barrel oil. So that should be functioning.

I strongly suspect that it is the IPPs who are not producing anything at all and still claiming the contractual minimum payments from GOP. This is how they are showing profits.

WAPDA, KESC and Nuke are likely producing the whole 50% capacity that we have right now.

Somebody negotiated some very bad contracts that put all the power in the hands of the IPPs and concentrated all the risk on GOP's side.

Well, either 'bad' or 'corrupt'.

Anonymous said...

Interesting power from India to Pakistan.

Riaz Haq said...

Anon: "Interesting power from India to Pakistan"

Have you heard the proverb "shoemaker's children have no shoes" ?

Hopewins said...

^^RH: "Have you heard the proverb "shoemaker's children have no shoes" ?"

If New Delhi can get its hands on the Switch for our electricity grid, they will more than happily allow half of India to sit in the dark. What they want more than anything else is CONTROL over us. This is why:
1) They keep offering diesel, gasoline etcetera from their refineries.
2) They keep offering electricity from their power plants.

If we become dependent on India for purchasing essential fuel or electricity, then they will develop the 'doctrine of selective sanctions' to squeeze us at every step. This is textbook operation from Baniya 101.

Riaz Haq said...

HWJ: "This is textbook operation from Baniya 101."

Let's hope the baniya is more interested in money than control.

Anonymous said...

If we become dependent on India for purchasing essential fuel or electricity, then they will develop the 'doctrine of selective sanctions' to squeeze us at every step. This is textbook operation from Baniya 101.

Yup which is why we have more of less adhered to the IWT despite 4 wars!

Riaz Haq said...

Anon: "Yup which is why we have more of less adhered to the IWT despite 4 wars!"

It's very hard to turn off water and very easy easy to turn off electricity.

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a link to good overview of Pak economic indicators from Economic Survey of Pakistan 2012-13:

Anonymous said...

It's very hard to turn off water and very easy easy to turn off electricity.

don't look a gift horse in the mouth!

One of the reasons you have this furnace fuel powered nonsense is the political/economic/social enviornment is not condusive to large capital investments like coal fired plants.

India OTOH is adding 10,000 MW + every year with domestic capital goods sector:

BHEL.L&T,JSW and BGR easily capable of manufacturing 15000 MW capacity annually.It also has more or less worked out coal linkages.

Therefore PAkistan 's choice are
1.Business as usual and pray for a miracle.

2. Connect to the Indian grid and get a proper PPA in place along the lines of the IWT. Baniyas usually respect contracts specially profitable ones.

Riaz Haq said...

Anon: "India OTOH is adding 10,000 MW + every year with domestic capital goods sector"

Here's a report that shows India too has a fuel crisis and debt issues in the power sector:

Fuel supply risks and precarious financial health of electricity distribution companies continue to pose challenges for the power sector, whose slow progress could impact the country’s economic growth, a report said today.

India Ratings & Research, part of global major Fitch Group, also cautioned that expected investments worth Rs 1,75,000 crore in various power projects could turn into non— performing assets unless fuel issues are resolved.

“Non availability of sufficient power as well as insufficient power generation capacity addition could impact the country’s overall economic growth,” India Ratings & Research Director (Corporates) Salil Garg told PTI here.

For every one per cent increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the power generation need to increase by one per cent.

Otherwise, there would be inadequate electricity supply that can impact not just the power sector but also other industries.

“The progress of reforms in the power sector is happening at a slow pace. The sector is expected to suffer this year (also) and investors are not likely to be enthused to put money into the sector,” Garg noted.

Indian economy is projected to grow at a slower pace, in the range of 5.7—5.9 per cent, this fiscal.

India, which has an installed power generation capacity of over 2,00,000 MW, expects to add about 88,000 MW in the current Five—Year Plan ending March 2017.

The report ‘2013 Outlook: Indian Power’, co—authored by Garg and released on Wednesday, said that fuel risks —— coal and gas —— along with uncertainties about financial viability of distribution companies (discoms) remain major issues.

Huge tariff hikes — required to revive discoms — can’t be expected this year as many states have already increased them significantly in recent times, Garg said. Tamil Nadu has raised tariffs by as much as 27 per cent.

Coal India, the largest supplier to power plants, has not inked any Fuel Supply Agreements (FSAs) since FY 2009.

The report said: “The 114 FSAs for plants commissioned post FY09 and likely to be commissioned till FY15 have a total cumulative capacity of 51,000 MW and with letters of assurance quantity of 216 million metric tonnes (mMT).

“Assuming only 65 per cent to be met through domestic coal, Coal India will have to increase its dispatch to the power sector to 436 mMT by FY15 (a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 12 per cent), which looks difficult.”

The total investment required for 51,000 MW, including debt and equity, would be around Rs 2,75,000 crore. With fuel risks, there is a possibility of debt portion — of around Rs 1,75,000 crore — becoming non—performing assets for banks and financial institutions, Garg noted.

Hopewins said...

Anon: "India OTOH is adding 10,000 MW + every year with domestic capital goods sector"

You are comparing your India to a country that is 1/6th your size in population.

Why don't you compare it to a country that is of the same size as yours: China?

In 2007, China produced 3,200 TWh.
In 2010, China produced 4,200 TWh.

So in 3 years, China ADDED 1,000 TWh of electricity production capacity.

In 2010, India produced 960 TWh.

This means that China ADDED more capacity in the 3 years running up to 2010, than the WHOLE of India's existing capacity in 2010.

Given that India and China have comparable populations, this is a SHOCKING statistic.

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a McClatchy report on Sharif allocating no money to Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline:

Pakistan’s newly elected government Wednesday unveiled its first budget, which gave the go-ahead for buying two new nuclear power plants from China but made no allocation for a long-proposed natural gas pipeline from Iran that had sparked complaints from the United States.

In not budgeting for the Iranian pipeline, agreed to by his predecessor in February, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif tactfully sidestepped a potential diplomatic clash with the United States, which had warned that the pipeline, if it were ever built, could lead to sanctions on Pakistan. The deal also was criticized as a trap for the new administration by Sharif’s brother and de facto deputy, Shahbaz Sharif, the chief minister of Punjab province.

The $35.5 billion budget, which was presented to Parliament by the new minister for finance, Ishaq Dar, suggested that the new government would follow through on Sharif’s plan to resolve the country’s power shortages that Dar said had cut the country’s economic growth by 2 percent in the outgoing fiscal year, which ends June 30.

Dar’s budget would switch Pakistan’s power generation plants from expensive imported fuel oil and gas to much cheaper coal sourced partly from undeveloped reserves in Pakistan’s southern Sindh province. The rest probably would come from huge mines in India, Pakistan’s traditional foe, with which it has fought two wars since both gained independence from Britain in 1947.

The South Asian neighbors opened talks Tuesday about the planned import of Indian electricity via cross-border cables near the eastern Pakistani city of Lahore.

The budget also sets aside about $430 million for new nuclear power plants from China, a project that the United States and India have both objected to at meetings of the Nuclear Supplier Group, one of the international groups that attempts to prevent nuclear proliferation. But Pakistan insists that the plants are unconnected to the country’s nuclear weapons program and are regularly inspected by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Pakistan possesses between 80 and 120 nuclear weapons, according to estimates by Western analysts.

A Cabinet minister, speaking to McClatchy on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the project with a reporter, said the Iranian gas pipeline hadn’t been altogether dropped, largely because that would invoke a penalty payment to Iran. Instead, he said, Pakistan’s new government would procrastinate by trying to haggle lower prices from Tehran, based on the comparison with coal.

Analysts also said Sharif could forgo the Iranian pipeline because of the prime minister’s good relations with Saudi Arabia. Sharif spent six years in exile in the Persian Gulf kingdom as part of a deal for his release from jail in Pakistan negotiated by the Saudi royal family, after he was overthrown in a military coup staged by Gen. Pervez Musharraf in October 1999....

Read more here:

Hopewins said...

What? It says here that our per capita electricity consumption is LOWER than sub-Saharan Africa:

Is this true? Are we really that low on the global scale?

Riaz Haq said...

HWJ: "What? It says here that our per capita electricity consumption is LOWER than sub-Saharan Africa"

The whole South Asia region has lower per capita energy consumption than sub-Sahara Africa in terms Kg of oil equivalents.!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=eg_use_pcap_kg_oe&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=region:SAS:SSA&ifdim=region&tdim=true&hl=en_US&dl=en_US&ind=false

Umair said...

Seems like we are falling yet again in the Oil for loyalty to Saudi influence supported by the US. The only issue is that the Saudis will also support the Wahabi extremists and will expect Pakistani look away on those activities. The break the Pakistani get in return will be terms for the payment of the the Oil - i.e. there will be no FREE Oil - but the pro-Saudi propaganda machinery will promote it as if the Saudis are feeding the Pakistani people.

Riaz Haq said...

Umair: "Seems like we are falling yet again in the Oil for loyalty to Saudi influence supported by the US. The only issue is that the Saudis will also support the Wahabi extremists and will expect Pakistani look away on those activities....."

Pakistan's best interest is not in defying Saudis and Americans to buy expensive Iranian gas ($11-12 per mmBTU) and end up with crippling sanctions which could be much worse than its current energy crisis. Its best interests will be served by developing its own cheap domestic shale gas ($4 per mmBTU) on an accelerated schedule with Saudi investment and US tech know-how. If the Americans and the Saudis refuse to help, then Pakistan will have a stronger case to go with the Iran gas option.

Anonymous said...

You are comparing your India to a country that is 1/6th your size in population.

Why don't you compare it to a country that is of the same size as yours: China?

This post was about why it is practical for India to set up additional plants to supply power to Pakistan not India vs Pakistan or India vs China.

India can set up 5000 MW of proper baseload power in India for the PAkistani market in 2-3 years.Its industry has the spare capacity to do this easily.

That's all I'm saying.Of course you and every country would like to have the industrial capacity inhouse to do this but you have not made the requisite investments over the past 60 years so you don't.

Btw why do you show stats comparing India vs China everytime something India Pakistan is being talked about?

Do Indians show China vs japan vs USA vs EU type stats at the drop of a hat?

On a per capita basis what is the baseload power availability(Coal/Gas hyro nuclear) in Pakistan?

Oil fired plants are 'peaking plants' they are there for the few hours a day when demand dramatically increases only grossly incompetent governments will build them for baseload power.Even arabs with all their oil don't use it for baseload power!

Riaz Haq said...

Here's Express Tribune on Iran-Pak Gas pipeline:

Despite pressure from the United States, the government has officially announced in its Annual Plan 2013-14 that it will implement the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project, targeting the first flow of gas in December 2014.
According to the energy strategy unveiled by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz government in the Annual Plan 2013-14 released on Wednesday, the project’s cost has been reduced to $1.25 billion against earlier estimates of $1.5 billion.
Under the IP gas pipeline project, Pakistan will import 750 mmcfd of gas to generate 4,000 Megawatts of power to overcome the crippling power crisis.
According to the plan, the government plans to appoint a third party inspection agency for the IP project in June-July 2013. It has also planned to procure equipment and material to begin construction in the financial year 2013-14. The government has also targeted to complete the construction of Pakistan’s portion of the pipeline in the new fiscal year, at which time the first gas flows are expected to begin.

At the same time, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government is also planning on committing to the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project. Under this project, about 3.2 billion cubic feet per day of gas will flow through the 1,680 kilometre-long pipeline. The estimated cost of the pipeline is about $7.6 billion.
During the fiscal year 2012-13, which will end by the end of this month, the expected local production of oil was 74,000 barrels per day against a target of 69,000 barrels per day, exceeding the target by 5,000 barrels per day.
However, gas production fell short of the target, as the domestic gas production was expected to be 4,200 mmcfd against the 4,791 mmcfd target.
A total of only 83 wells (30 exploratory and 53 appraisal/development wells) were expected to be drilled against a target of 100 wells.

Hopewins said...

"Btw why do you show stats comparing India vs China everytime something India Pakistan is being talked about?

Do Indians show China vs japan vs USA vs EU type stats at the drop of a hat?"

I thought it was the Indians who don't like to be compared to Pakistan, but prefer to be compared to China.

Isn't it the Indians who insist that the Indo-Pak hypenation should be changed to Af-Pak on one hand and Indo-China on the other?

Why the sudden change now?

Hopewins said...

^^RH: "The whole South Asia region has lower per capita energy consumption than sub-Sahara Africa in terms Kg of oil equivalents"

The topic of this blog article was ELECTRICITY.

So with 95% of people connected to the grid, why are we STILL consuming less electricity per capita than sub-Saharan Africa, when large swathes of their population do not even have connections (e.g. Nigeria is 60% connected, Kenya is 65%)

Riaz Haq said...

HWJ: "why are we STILL consuming less electricity per capita than sub-Saharan Africa, when large swathes of their population do not even have connections (e.g. Nigeria is 60% connected, Kenya is 65%)"

Because Pakistan is more egalitarian the sub-Saharan Africa.

Pakistan's Gini index is about 30 vs Nigeria's 43.7.

Nigeria is also big energy producer and exporter.

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a Central Asia Online report on energy projects in Pakistan:

Pakistan is at least 5,000MW short of what it is needs to support the country this summer, the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) reported. On one day in May, the national power grid generated 9,200MW, 7,000MW short of demand, UPI reported.

The acute energy crisis has taken its toll on industry, agriculture and the job market, costing millions of Pakistanis their jobs over the past 10 years, according to economists.

"The energy crisis has reduced GDP growth by 2.5-3% [per year], and it directly affects the 2.5m new job seekers who enter the market every year," Dr. Ashfaq Hassan, an economist, told Central Asia Online, adding that millions of Pakistanis lost their jobs because of the crisis in the last decade.

Pakistani energy potential
It is not a matter of lacking energy resources, but rather it is a matter of properly tapping into Pakistani potential, Hassan said.

The country has large potential for economic growth and employment if exploited carefully, he said.

Pakistan in a few years could overcome the energy crisis and massive unemployment, and the GDP growth would be higher if load shedding vanished, economist A. H. Nayyar said.

The country's power potential is 59,208MW for hydropower; 100,000MW for coal; 7,500MW for wind; 2,000MW for solar; and 25,031MW for thermal, WAPDA spokeswoman Farhat Jabeen told Central Asia Online.

Projects boost energy production
The energy crisis seems to be worsening day by day, but the power generation projects are now increasing hope and the country's future is not as dark as it once seemed.

Several stakeholders are involved and the authorities are trying hard to contain the power shortage and load shedding in Pakistan, Jabeen said.

Construction is progressing on 17 small- to medium-size dams and other power-generating projects, and some of them should be ready within a few months, she said.

More than 400MW will be added to the national grid this month, and another 4,000MW in the next five years, she added.

Three dams are nearing completion and two others are scheduled to be finished in 2015, official records reveal.

Improving job market and alternative energy
Besides helping to ease the energy crisis, the projects will boost employment.

The dam projects, for example, have directly employed 19,200 workers in the past five years, the WAPDA dams director said.

The energy development sector has provided more than 100,000 jobs in various projects over the past eight years, official records reveal.

Energy development projects are already denting the unemployment rate. There are also expectations that the increased employment will trickle down to industry and agriculture.

Development activities like those in the energy sector always have a positive effect on other areas of the economy, Nayyar said, noting more job opportunities will come to cement and other industries.

Alternative energy plans on tap, too
The government is not only encouraging the dams as energy sources but also promoting solar, wind, nuclear and other means. It initiated projects in this direction as well.

The Alternative Energy Development Board initiated wind, solar and other projects that will add 500MW to the national grid within two years, Chief Executive Arif Alauddin told Central Asia Online.

But the potential for such projects is much greater as these sectors are attracting huge investment, he said.

Mahesh said...

Rather than a snapshot for a given year, it is better to look at many snapshots over a period of time to get a better perspective of issues like development. In other words, it is more important to look at a trend if there is one otherwise statistics can allow someone to make whatever point they wish to make.

Let us examine the data of per capita energy use in kg equivalent for the years 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2010 for Lower Middle Income countries of India, Pakistan & Philippines using World Bank data

India: 301, 369, 434 and 566
Pakistan: 318, 384, 437 and 487
Philippines: 476, 453, 484 and 434

Looking at South Asia, Pakistan was 6% higher in 1981, 4% higher in 1991 and 15% lower in 2010 when compared to India!

Anonymous said...

Surprising India and Pakistan both have higher per capita energy use than Philippines a country substantially richer than both!

Hopewins said...

Here is an interesting explanation of why India has only 75% connection-rate when we have 91% connectivity....

QUOTE: "...its priority should have been to increase the energy resource and allocating it to the production sector. That needs to prioritise the allocation of gas and electricity. In India, according to the World Bank, 306.2 million people do not have electricity. According to my findings, New Delhi has deliberately taken this step. This energy is diverted to the industrial sector; with economic improvement, the conditions will improve gradually. Can the Pakistani leadership too take such a bold decision?"


Well, what do you have to say?

Riaz Haq said...

HWJ quoting someone " According to my findings, New Delhi has deliberately taken this step."

Oh really?

Does this writer you quote think New Delhi makes these decisions?

Does he know that India has 15 independent state electricity boards which make such decisions?

Does he know that most of these boards are bankrupt?

Does he know that India doesn't have any real national power grid to speak off?

Anonymous said...


A lot and I mean a lot of Indian power capacity is Captive power by the industry a bit of which is given to the SEB with the relevant PPA.10000MW power is added every year in India well over 6000MW is captive...

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a Daily Times report on Pakistan settling "circular debt" owed to IPPs:

In order to eliminate circular debt, the government has released Rs 362 billion to the Independent Power Producers (IPPs), out of which four IPPs announced that they have received a total sum of Rs 116.826 billion as a part of their overdue receivables, according to the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) notice released on Tuesday.
Five IPPs out of 19 others, in Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) signed between government and IPPs, including Hub Power Company Limited (Hubco), Nishat Chunian Power Limited (NCPL), PakGen Power Limited (PKGP), Kohinoor Energy Limited (KEL) and Nishat Power Limited (NPL) have announced officially in notices to all bourses of the country that they have received around Rs 116.826 billion from Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA), Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) and National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC).
Hubco remained prime beneficiary as the company stated in a letter to the KSE that the company has received overdue amounting to Rs 75 billion out of Rs 83.2 billion (overdue as of May 31, 2013) for Hubco and Rs 17.4 billion for Narowal Plant from WAPDA and NTDC, bringing the total to Rs 92.4 billion.
Hubco announced that the company has paid Rs 55.8 billion to Pakistan State Oil (PSO) as agreed under the settlement arrangement.
Hubco has entered into three MoUs with the government as required by them for the settlement of agreeing to convert Hub plant from oil to coal, extend the credit period for its Narowal Plant from 30 days to 60 days and to endeavour to operate the plants at full capacity.
Under the MoUs, IPPs also agreed to achieve their maximum generation capacity and provide 1,500 megawatts (MW) to 1,700 MW to the national grid before Ramazan, four IPPs including Hubco, Lalpir, Pakgen and Saba Plant, have agreed on conversion to coal-based power generation within 18 months, extend credit period from 45 days to 60 days and reduce interest rate on late payments by public sector power companies.
Similarly, NCPL announced that the company has received overdue receivables amounting to Rs 6.86 billion from CPPA without any reduction in existing delay mark-up rate of existing 4.5 percent to 2.5 percent as against expected cut of 2.0 percent from 4.0 percent to 4.5 percent.
Likewise, PKGP also informed the KSE that the company has received overdue receivables amounting to Rs 6.982 billion from CPPA at existing delay mark-up rate.
Also, KEL announced in a letter to KSE that the company has received overdue receivables amounting to Rs 3.504 billion from WAPDA.
Muhammad Affan Ismail of BMA Research told this scribe that the fund injections (cash or otherwise) are a short-term solution and have no long-term implications on operational factors or returns to investors. Best would be to recall the Rs 82 billion Tem Finance Certificates (TFCs) issued last year by the government in order to help solve the power crisis, he added.
NPL has announced that it has received overdue amounting to Rs 7.080 billion.
Naveed Tehsin of JS Research believes that PSO stands out as a key beneficiary from the retirement of the circular debt as its receivables and payables to local refineries have sharply declined to Rs 79 billion (down 54 percent) and Rs 9 billion (down 66 percent), respectively.
Tehsin expected that receivables would further decline by Rs 48 billion after the issuance of Pakistan Investment Bonds to PSO.

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a Dawn story on a World Bank study of poverty reduction in Pakistan:

A new World Bank study says Pakistan has demonstrated that it can reduce poverty even at relatively low rates of growth of 3.2 to 4.5 per cent but not at growth of GDP per capita of 1pc, noting that it is struggling to sustain that growth.

“International comparisons suggest that Pakistan has been a good performer in turning growth into poverty reduction. Countries that are more successful in reducing poverty tend to be better at generating sustained growth, however the issue for Pakistan will thus be sustaining growth,” according to World Bank policy note on poverty in Pakistan.

The observation that Pakistan is successful in reducing poverty when GDP grows but cannot sustain that growth has two important policy implications. With more growth interruptions, an adequate social protection system becomes more important.

The second implication is that a renewed effort to address the problem that work against sustained growth would be well justified for faster poverty reduction.

This effort should lead to policy priorities for poverty reduction different from those in countries better able to sustain growth but unable to convert that growth into rapid poverty reduction, it says.

The poor are vulnerable to shocks — be they of natural disasters, health or macro policy. An adequate system would ensure that when shocks hit, the poor and vulnerable can still maintain the investments they need to increase their incomes and their children’s welfare.

Describing safety net programme like Benazir Income Support Programme as no substitute for sustained growth, the study says due to stop-go growth and too many natural disasters, Pakistan has to ensure a strong safety net programme as part of an overall poverty reduction strategy.

The study estimates that in Punjab, the largest province, where it says data appears more reliable, poverty has fallen considerably from 33.5pc in 2001-02 to 16.4pc in 2007-08, after adjusting for higher food prices.

This improvement was driven largely by increasing returns in the non-farm sector, in both urban and rural areas.

Over the period, the growth of per capita consumption of the bottom 40pc of Punjab’s population exceeded GDP per capita growth. Subsequently, over 2007-08, 2010-11, per capita real consumption growth in Punjab was stagnant, and the equality of opportunity for primary education completion rates seemed to improve but alongside a slowdown in the rate of improvement in indicators for water and sanitation and for primary enrolment.

The report says that the last three years have seen sizeable differences in the improving social indicators. Sindh has been lagging in its primary completion rates, and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa has been lagging in coverage of improved sanitation.

According to the report, opportunity is growing in both urban and rural areas for education and sanitation, which is a very positive sign. Urban children have more absolute opportunity than rural children, but the rate of growth in rural areas is growing faster.

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a pv magazine report of a local NGO working to light up Pakistani villagers' homes:

Working with local and international partners like Coca-Cola, China Mobile's Zong, the Imran Khan Foundation and Engro Corporation, Pakistan's Buksh Foundation has set a goal of illuminating 4,000 off-grid villages by 2017.

Pakistani village Chak 113
The village of Chak 113, in Punjab's Sahiwal District, installs its new lantern charging station.
Buksh Foundation
As part of a pilot project to increase the use of solar power, the Lahore-based microfinance institute Buksh Foundation and the Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) in India, working with national and international partners, have electrified 72 off-grid villages in Pakistan's Punjab province.

The Buksh Foundation, launched in 2009 by Pakistani retail giant Buksh Group, has sought to increase financial inclusion for rural and peri-urban population.

The organization has launched a unique solar energy access model, Lighting a Million Lives, which aims to provide energy access to rural un-electrified areas of Pakistan.

"Under this project, 72 villages in the districts of Sahiwal, Mianwali,
Lodhran, Dera Ghazi Khan, Dera Ismail Khan, Bahawalpur and Chiniot have already been electrified, with 70 more in the pipeline for this month, further reaching out into Mardan, Khushab, Gujrat, Kasur and Bahawalnagar in a period of only six month," Anam Elahi, the Buksh Foundation's business development manager and head of the Lighting a Million Lives project, told pv magazine.

The project has already impacted some 25,000 people and the Buksh Foundation is planning to light a total of 4,000 Pakistani villages, directly helping a million individuals, in the next three years. Recently scheduled projects include electrifying the villages in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

"The project with its multifold benefit model, has not only helped in providing a sustainable energy alternative, but has also encouraged female empowerment, increased economic capacity of the rural areas, created literacy about the needs for environmental friendly energy alternatives and the benefits they provide," said Buksh Foundation CEO Fiza Farhan.

The initiative seeks to empower females in rural communities by putting them in charge of photovoltaic charging stations, which are used to charge lanterns during the day. The women then either sell or rent the lanterns to villages for PKR 4 (€0.03) a day, providing a much cheaper alternative to high-priced kerosene traditionally used for lighting.

Each solar lantern replaces about 500-600 liters of kerosene during its 10-year lifespan, mitigating about 1.5 tonnes of CO2, according to the Buksh Foundation.

The organization said that about 43% of the population of Pakistan lives without access to electricity, of which 70% live in rural areas in 50,000 villages, completely detached from the national electricity grid. By 2015, the figure is expected to climb to 46% as the energy deficit worsens; by 2025, it will rise to 64%, with 187 million people having no access to the power grid.

By reaching its goal of providing a million lanterns to people the Foundation said it could reduce 1.5 million tons of CO2, save around PKR 25 billion (€188 million) and reduce oil imports by 6% a year....

Riaz Haq said...

To enhance access to non-solid fuels like gas, Pak televangelist Aamir Liaqat Husain's foundation has launched “Choolah Ghar” this year, where those deprived and unfortunate people are being facilitated with Free Gas, who does not have Gas facility. Except this, the Mehmooda Sultana Foundation, named after Aamir Liaquat's mother, is supplying food packs to poor people in different hospitals on daily basis.

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a Dawn report on UNESCAP Statistical Year Book 2013:

ISLAMABAD, Dec 3: About 1.3 billion people in the world are living without electricity; two-thirds of them being in 10 countries and four of them, including Pakistan, in the Asia Pacific region, says a report of the United Nations.

According to the Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific-2013 released by a UN commission on Tuesday, an estimated 60 per cent of capacity-addition efforts in future will be focused on mini-grids and off-grid connections in which renewable energy sources will play a vital role.

In the generation of electricity from renewable sources, the Asian and Pacific region led the world in 2010. But this amounted to only 15.8 per cent of the region’s total electricity, which is below the world average of 19.4 per cent.

With less than 400 kilowatt-hours per capita, the annual household electricity consumption in the region is the second lowest among the world’s regions, after Africa where it is 200kwh.

About 2.6bn people in the world and 1.8bn in the region use solid fuels for cooking. The WHO estimates that more than 1.45 million people die prematurely each year from indoor air pollution caused by burning solid fuels with insufficient ventilation.

Women’s economic empowerment

The report says that despite its economic growth, the region lags behind in economic empowerment of women. It calls for targeted policy measures to facilitate women’s economic empowerment.

Women still bear the burden of unremunerated productive work, shouldering the major share of household management and care-giving responsibilities.

The report says that in Pakistan women spend 5.5 hours a day on housework and 1.2 hours on childcare whereas men spend 2.5 hours on housework and 0.9 hours on childcare.

It also says that women are overrepresented in sectors and positions that are vulnerable, poorly paid and less secure. For instance, 42 per cent of working women/girls belonged to agriculture sector in 2012 compared with 36.0 per cent of male workers.

Riaz Haq said...

Biogas Brings Heat, Light to #Pakistani Village. Saves Trees. Cuts Air #Pollution. Improves Health … via @sharethis

Nabela Zainab no longer chokes and coughs when she cooks a meal, thanks to the new biogas-fueled two-burner stove in her kitchen.

Zainab, 38, from Faisalabad, a town 360 kilometers from the Pakistani capital of Islamabad, is among the beneficiaries of a flagship pilot biogas project to free poor households and farmers of their dependence on wood, cattle dung and diesel fuel for cooking needs and running irrigation pumps.

She got the biogas unit, worth 400 dollars, at a 50 percent subsidised rate from the NGO Rural Support Programme Network under the latter’s five-year Pakistan Domestic Biogas Programme (PDBP).

In the past, Zainab had to collect wood from a distant forest three times a week and carry it home balanced on her head.

“Getting rid of that routine is a life-changing experience,” she told IPS.

The four-cubic-meter biogas plant requires the dung of three buffalos every day to meet the energy needs of a four-member family, including cooking, heating, washing and bathing for 24 hours.

It saves nearly 160 kg of fuelwood a day, worth 20 to 25 dollars every month for a four-member family.

The wife of a smallholder vegetable farmer, Zainab says she has suffered from a cough and sore eyes for the last 20 years. “We have no access to piped natural gas in our village. The rising cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was not feasible either for us poor. However, we had no choice but to continue burning buffalo dung cakes or fuelwood,” she said.

Last January, cattle farmer Amir Nawaz installed a biogas plant of eight-cubic-meter capacity at a cost of 700 dollars under the PDBP. He got subsidy of nearly 300 dollars.

“I am now saving nearly 60 dollars a month that I used to spend on LPG,” he told IPS.

His plant is fueled by the dung of his six buffalos — enough to meet household gas needs for cooking and heating.

Nawaz also uses biogas to power wall-mounted lamps in his house at night, saving another 15 dollars a month.

“Above all, this has helped our children do schoolwork and for me to finish up the household chores in the evening hours,” Nawaz’s wife, Shaista Bano, said with a smile.

As many as 5,360 biogas plants of varying sizes have been installed in 12 districts of Punjab province over five years (2009-2015), ridding nearly 43,000 people of exposure to smoke from wood and kerosene.

Nearby, 500 large biogas plants of the 25-cubic-meter capacity each have also been introduced in all 12 districts of Punjab province under the PBDP, namely: Faisalabad, Sargodha, Khushab, Jhang, Chniot, Toba Tek Singh, Shekhapura, Gujranwala, Sahiwal, Pakpatan, Nankana Sahib and Okara.

Such plants provide gas for a family of 10 for cooking, heating and running irrigation pumps for six hours daily.

Rab Nawaz bought one of these large plants for 1,700 dollars. PBDP provided him a subsidy of 400 dollars as part of its biogas promotion in the area.

“I use the dung of 18 buffalos to produce nearly 40 cubic meters of gas every day to run my diesel-turned-biogas-run irrigation pump for six hours and cooking stove for three times a day,” he told IPS, while shoveling out his cattle pen in Sargodha.

The father of three says that after eliminating diesel — which is damaging to the environment and health, as well as expensive — he saves 10-12 dollars daily.

As a part of sustainability of the biogas programme, 50 local biogas construction companies have been set up. International technical experts trained nearly 450 people in construction, maintenance and repair of the biogas units.

Initiated in 2009 by the non-governmental organization National Rural Support Programme – Pakistan (NRSP-Pakistan), PBDP was financed by the Netherlands Embassy in Pakistan and technical support was extended by Winrock International and SNV (Netherlands-based nongovernmental development organisations).