Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

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Sunday, August 24, 2025

Humbled Modi Reaches Out to China After Trump Turns Hostile

Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to be shedding his Hindutva arrogance. He is reaching out to China after President Donald Trump and several top US administration officials have openly and repeatedly targeted India for harsh criticism over the purchase of Russian oil. Top American officials have accused India, particularly the billionaire friends of Mr. Modi, of “profiteering” from the Russian oil trade. While welcoming India’s outreach, the Chinese have indicated they expect New Delhi to stop covert aid to militant groups attacking Chinese interests in Pakistan. Meanwhile, Chinese Ambassador Xu Feihong in New Delhi recently told his Indian audiences that “Pakistan is a victim of terrorism”. Also, the United States has recently labeled the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and its affiliated the Majeed Brigade as “international terrorists”. Majeed Brigade claimed responsibility for hijacking of the Jaffar Express train in Balochistan and murdering 31 people in cold blood in March this year. The Chinese have reached out to the Afghan Taliban leadership to get them to stop the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and related terrorist groups like ISIS-K from launching cross-border attacks in Pakistan which kill Chinese and Pakistani citizens and impact Chinese projects. The US has also praised the Pakistani government as a “phenomenal partner” in combatting international terrorism.

There is significant evidence of Indian intelligence agencies’ involvement in terrorist attacks on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects funded by the Chinese government. Indian covert operative Kulbhushan Jhadav, now in Pakistani custody, has detailed his role in carrying out such attacks. In “My Enemy’s Enemy”, Indian investigative journalist Avinash Paliwal has described at some length the connections between the Indian government agents and the Afghan and Baloch militants targeting the Pakistani state and various development projects undertaken under the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Paliwal talks of the presence of Afghan and Baloch exiles in New Delhi where the Indian intelligence services recruit "human assets" to use against Pakistan. He says he has conducted interviews about Indian support for the TTP (Pakistani Taliban) on the ground in Afghanistan “whose details can not be divulged”.

In recent years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has also been accused of ordering targeted assassinations of dissidents in multiple countries, including Canada, the US and Pakistan. Reacting to the report of Canadian allegations against the Indian government, Pakistan Foreign Secretary Syrus Qazi said: “We are aware of the nature of our eastern neighbor, we know what they are capable of … so it is not a surprise for us. “We caught [one of their] serving naval intelligence officers on our soil. He (Kulbhushan Jadhav) is in our custody and admitted that he came here to create instability and spread evil,” he added.

Modi has a long history of murdering minorities in his country. After the Gujarat anti-Muslim pogrom of 2002, Narendra Modi made the cover of India Today magazine with the caption "Hero of Hatred". Modi was denied a visa to visit the United States. The US visa ban on Modi was lifted in 2014 after he became prime minister. Since then, Narendra Modi's image has been rehabilitated by the West as the US and Western Europe seek allies in Asia to counter the rise of China. However, Modi's actions on the ground in India confirm that he remains "Hero of Hatred" and "Divider In Chief" at his core. A two-part BBC documentary explains this reality in significant detail. The first part focuses on the 2002 events in Gujarat when Modi as the state chief minister ordered the police to not stop the Hindu mobs murdering Muslims and burning their homes and businesses. The second part looks at Modi government's anti-Muslim policies, including the revocation of Kashmir's autonomy (article 370) and a new citizenship law (CAA 2019) that discriminates against Muslims. It shows the violent response by security forces to peaceful protests against the new laws, and interviews the family members of people who were killed in the 2020 Delhi riots orchestrated by Modi's allies.

Here's Indian National Security Advisor on how to use Taliban to attack Pakistan:

https://youtu.be/eYRuk8H5M9E?si=ZB1c7Dd8ntQdKeFi

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Monday, July 28, 2025

Can Pakistan Balance Close China Ties With its US Relationship?

Pakistani civilian and military leaders have recently met with top leaders from China and the US. While Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar has met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Pakistan's military chief Field Marshal Asim Munir has had lunch with President Donald Trump and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during July, 2025. “Our foreign policy is not a zero-sum game,” Dar said at a presentation to the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington DC. “We hope to see friendly relations between the US and China and do not wish to embroil in bloc politics.” Pakistan's close ties to both the US and China go back to the 1960s at the height of the Cold War. It was Pakistan which helped arrange the first China-US dialogue in July 1971 when the US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger flew from Pakistan to China to hold the first face-to-face meeting with Chinese leaders.

With increasing US-China rivalry on the world stage today, can Pakistan still maintain close ties with both Beijing and Washington at the same time? President Trump's remarks at a recent Philippines-US summit offer clues to answering this puzzle.

Responding to questions at the White House last week, visiting Filipino President Marcos said "there's no need to balance the relationship between the US and China" and that his "strongest partner has always been the US." President Trump immediately rebuked him, saying he "doesn't mind if [Marcos] gets along with China because we're getting along with China very well," and told Marcos that getting along with China is "doing what's right for his country," would "make the Philippines great again" and "wouldn't bother me at all."

It seems that Secretary Rubio has reconciled himself with the inevitability of China's rise. In February 2025, Rubio told Brian Kilmeade of Fox News: “China is going to be a rich and powerful country. No matter what we do, that’s what – we’re going to have to deal with that. But we have to deal with the reality. What we cannot have is a world where China is so powerful, we depend on them. And that’s right now where we’re headed, unfortunately. That’s going to change. That’s going to change under President Trump”.

Talking about the US interest in South Asia, American Professor John Mearsheimer told India's CNN-News18 in May this year: "When it comes to countering China, India is the most important country for the US in South Asia. But the US also wants to maintain good relations with Pakistan to try to peel it away from China".

Speaking to an Indian YouTube channel "The Federal" after what India called its "Operation Sindoor", French political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot talked of Indian expectations "which are completely unrealistic, a fight to the finish with a nuclear power (Pakistan). What does that mean do you think you can really break Pakistan create an an independent Balochistan this is complete fantasy and of course when you foster this sense of fantasy by being almost belligerent and also there is this sense of hysteria that that the that the media are of course also cultivating when you expect so much you can only be disappointed and and this is really um counterproductive for the BJP to play that game because they are bound to create expectations they will never meet".

Here's a good summation of the aftermath of "Operation Sindoor" as seen by a veteran Indian diplomat MK Bhadrakumar: "The bottom line is, Pakistan has demonstrated its nuclear deterrent capability. It is as simple as that. If Operation Sindoor were to be repeated every now and then, it would only have the same results and be halted unceremoniously within 100 hours. Eventually, it will not only lose all novelty to our ecstatic TV audience, but a troubled nation may eventually start blaming an inept leadership. Pakistan is a major military power. Creating potholes in an odd runway or rendering a radar dysfunctional temporarily will not intimidate that country. Succinctly put, it must be far better for India to take help from Trump, who harbors no animus against us, to solve the problem and move on with life".

Pakistan military's remarkable performance against its much larger rival India has significantly raised Pakistan's geopolitical profile in the eyes of the international community. Islamabad's ties with Beijing and Washington have significantly strengthened. The country has been elected President of the UN Security Council and Chair of the UN Security Council Taliban Sanctions Committee (1988 Committee): This committee oversees the implementation of sanctions measures against the Taliban. Pakistan is also Vice-Chair of the Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC): The CTC monitors the implementation of resolution 1373, which outlines state obligations to counter terrorism.

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Pakistani International Students Flocking to European Universities

Recent data shows that there are nearly 10,000 Pakistani students attending colleges and universities in Germany. This figure is second only to the United Kingdom which issued over 35,000 student visas to Pakistanis in 2024. The second most popular destination for Pakistani students is Australia which is hosting nearly 24,000 students from Pakistan as of 2023, according to the ICEF Monitor.

Top Countries of Origin For International Students in Germany 2024. Source: Study in Germany

Here's a list of the top 15 countries of origin of foreign students in Germany in 2024:

India 49,008

China 38,687

Turkey 18,084

Austria 15,379

Iran 15,159

Syria 13,379

Russia 10,593

Italy 10,154

Ukraine 9,914

Pakistan 9,873

Egypt 8,060

Morocco 7,398

Tunisia 6,852

Cameroon 6,789

France 6,759

This year, Pakistani students won 114 Erasmus Mundus EU Scholarships, the highest number in the world. This makes Pakistan the top country receiving these scholarships for the fourth consecutive year. The Erasmus Mundus Scholarship is a prestigious European scholarship program for graduates, funding joint master's degrees at prestigious universities across multiple countries.

Pakistani Students Received the Highest Number of EU Scholarships in 2025. Source: EU

Here's the list of top countries of EU Scholarship Winners in 2025:

1. 🇵🇰 Pakistan: 114

2. 🇮🇳 India: 96

3. 🇧🇩 Bangladesh: 95

4. 🇲🇽 Mexico: 93

5. 🇳🇬 Nigeria: 75

6. 🇧🇷 Brazil: 73

7. 🇪🇸 Spain: 65

8. 🇺🇸 USA: 62

9. 🇪🇬 Egypt: 61

10. 🇩🇪 Germany: 61

Pakistan is third, after only China and India, in terms of the size of its college-aged population, according to the United Nations. The British Council expects growth in Pakistani outbound mobility to be among highest in the world over the next decade, along with China, India, Nigeria, and Bangladesh.

Acceptance rate in Pakistani universities and degree colleges was just 13.5% in 2022. Only 541,043 students were accepted from 4,085,185 students who applied. The country produced 471,306 university graduates in 2020-21. Of these, 157,102 were in STEM fields, including 43,000 graduates in information technology (IT).

Pakistan’s gross tertiary enrollment (GER) ratio was only 13% in 2023, according to UNESCO. This is much lower than in India, and lower than in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka as well. Of 109 countries UNESCO profiled in 2021, Pakistan’s tertiary GER was 100th. Given Pakistan’s huge college-aged population, there is serious unmet demand for higher education, according to the ICEF Monitor.

Recent data on which destinations are hosting the most Pakistani students include:

UK: 34,690 in 2022/23 (+50% y-o-y)

China: 28,000 before the pandemic

UAE: 24,865 in 2020 according to UNESCO

Australia: 23,380 in 2023 (+49%)

US: 10,165 in 2022/23 (+16%)

Germany: 8,210 in 2022/23 (+22%)

Kyrgyzstan: 6,000 in 2020 according to UNESCO

Malaysia: 5,000 in 2023

Canada: 4,750 in 2023 (+101%)

Turkey: 2,385 in 2020 according to UNESCO

Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Sweden, Qatar: At least 4,000 in 2020 according to UNESCO

Pakistani-Americans in Silicon Valley

2021: A Banner Year For Tech Startups in Pakistan

Pakistan Projected to Be World's 6th Largest Economy By 2075

Digital Pakistan 2022: Broadband Penetration Soars to 90% of 15+ Population

Working Women Seeding a Silent Revolution in Pakistan

Pakistani-American's AI Startup Commands $18 Billion Valuation

Over A Million Pakistani University Students Enrolled in STEM Fields

Pakistan at 75

Growing Presence of Pakistani Women in Science and Technology

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Pakistani Prosthetics Startup Aiding Gaza's Child Amputees

While the Israeli weapons supplied by the "civilized" West are destroying the lives and limbs of thousands of Gaza's innocent children, a Pakistani startup is trying to provide them with free custom-made prostheses, according to media reports. The Karachi-based startup Bioniks was founded in 2016 and has sold prosthetics that use AI and 3D scanning for custom designs.

Gaza's Child Amputee Sidra Al Bordini with Bioniks CEO Anaz Niaz. Source: Instagram

Bioniks has recently delivered its first prosthetics made for Gaza's children using remote imaging to design custom arms at low cost. The demand for such prosthetics is high because, according to the United Nations, Gaza has 4500 new amputees since October 7, 2023 Hamas attack which triggered Israel's brutal response and started the ongoing genocide in Gaza.

A recent Reuters story cites the examples of two girls, three-year-old Habebat Alla and 8 year-old Sidra Al Bordini, who recently received artificial limbs made by Bioniks. Both were severely injured in Israeli air strikes. Sidra and Habebat Allah, who lost both her arms and a leg in Gaza, went through days of remote consultations and virtual fittings. Then Niaz flew from Karachi to Amman, Jordan to meet the girls and make his company's first overseas delivery. children need lighter limbs and replacements every 12–18 months as they grow. Niaz said the company was exploring funding options for Sidra and Habebat's future replacements, adding the cost wouldn't be too high.

The company used a smartphone app to take pictures from different angles and created a 3D model to print custom prosthetics. Bioniks CEO Anas Niaz said the social enterprise startup had fit more than 1,000 custom-designed arms inside Pakistan since 2021 - funded through a mix of patient payments, corporate sponsorship, and donations - but this was its first time providing prosthetics to those impacted in conflict, according to Reuters.

Here's how the company describes itself on its website: "At Bioniks, we believe in turning disabilities into possibilities. Founded with a mission to empower individuals with disabilities, we are pioneers in advanced prosthetics and assistive technologies in Pakistan. Our innovative solutions are designed to restore mobility, independence, and dignity to those who need it most. Bioniks revolutionizes the field of healthcare through advanced-level prosthesis and surgical planning tools that are created using state of the art technologies and designing techniques. We at Bioniks aim to provide healthcare solutions that bring measurable value to those who use it and are shaped keeping their precise needs in mind."

Earlier this year, the startup was recognized for contributions to advancing the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, placing it among the world’s most “impactful and scalable” technology. It is the first Pakistani company to win the Zero Project Award, according to media reports.

Friday, June 20, 2025

Pakistani-American Entrepreneur's AI Startup Commands $18 Billion Valuation

Anysphere, founded in 2022 by Sualeh Asif, Arvid Lunnemark, Aman Sanger and Michael Truell, has been approached by investors about a deal that would more than double its valuation in a new funding round to $18 to $20 billion, according to Bloomberg. Sualeh Asif, 25, the Chief Product Officer and co-founder, hails from Karachi, Pakistan. He studied at Nixor College in Karachi before going to the United States in 2018. He met the other three co-founders while studying at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). One-half (Sualeh Asif and Aman Sanger) of the startup’s founding team is of South Asian origin. The company moved to San Francisco soon after its founding in 2022.

Sualeh Asif, Anyshphere Inc's Pakistani-American Founder

Anysphere’s lead product is an AI code editor called Cursor AI. It works as an AI assistant that writes code and also anticipates code developer's needs, identifies inefficiencies, and helps solve complex problems with relative ease. On his personal website sualehasif.me, Sualeh says: "I’m building Cursor to discover a new way to write code. I owe much of my fun to my friends and MIT. I am extremely excited about the new capabilities of LLMs and applications to code tools".

In early 2024, Anysphere raised $60 million in a Series A financing (co-led by Andreessen Horowitz and Thrive Capital and included Patrick Collison, CEO of Stripe) at a $400 million post-money valuation, according to TechCrunch. It was followed by a $105 million Series B funding round in December 2024. Earlier this month, Anysphere said it raised $900 million at a valuation of $9.9 billion, including the new investment, in a round led by Thrive Capital. Andreessen Horowitz, Accel and DST Global also participated.

Several investors have recently floated a funding offer that would value Anysphere at $18 billion to $20 billion, according to Bloomberg. The startup's revenue has recently surpassed $500 million on an annualized basis.

“We have not engaged with or spoken with any investors about financing since our Series C,” Chief Executive Officer Michael Truell wrote to Bloomberg in response to a query. “We’re not focused on fundraising and have lots to do on building the technology, product, and team. Cursor can be made much more useful, and we’re spending time on that.”

Pakistani-Americans in Silicon Valley

2021: A Banner Year For Tech Startups in Pakistan

Pakistan Projected to Be World's 6th Largest Economy By 2075

Digital Pakistan 2022: Broadband Penetration Soars to 90% of 15+ Population

Working Women Seeding a Silent Revolution in Pakistan

Socioeconomic Impact of New Infrastructure in Rural Pakistan

Pakistan Gets First Woman Supreme Court Judge

Pakistan at 75

Growing Presence of Pakistani Women in Science and Technology

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Sunday, June 8, 2025

Builder.AI: Yet Another Global Indian Scam?

A London-based startup builder.ai, founded by an Indian named Sachin Dev Duggal, recently filed for bankruptcy after its ‘neural network’ was discovered to be 700 Indians coding in India. The company promoted its "code-building AI" to be as easy as "ordering pizza". It was backed by nearly half a billion dollar investment by top tech investors including Microsoft. The company was valued at $1.5 billion. This is the latest among a series of global scams originating in India.

In recent years, India has emerged as a major hub for global scams. The US government has alleged in court documents that a large enterprise originating from India was involved in stealing nearly $1.5 billion from elderly Americans. Recently, two Indian nationals, Pranay Mamindi and Kishan Patel, were found guilty of participating in a money laundering conspiracy, concealing the source of the money, and using the illegally gained money to further promote a criminal enterprise. Six other defendants from India also pleaded guilty and are awaiting sentencing.

These global scams appear to have started amid widespread unemployment in India. Many of the scammers previously worked in call centers where they learned to use computers and telecommunications networks to reach out and talk to Americans. In 2022, U.S. citizens fell victim to a massive loss of over $10 billion from phishing calls orchestrated by illegal Indian call centers, according to data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

Indian-Americans, too, have been found guilty in a number of high-profile scams. A federal jury convicted former Theranos executive Ramesh "Sunny" Balwani, an Indian-American entrepreneur, on all 12 counts of fraud in 2022. Balwani was born in 1965 in Pakistan to a Sindhi Hindu family. His one-time girlfriend and partner Elizabeth Holmes, the founder of Theranos, was convicted on similar charges earlier that year. Both face up to 20 years in prison.

Last year, a federal judge sentenced former Outcome Health CEO Rishi Shah, an Indian-American, to 7½ years in prison for a massive fraud scheme that prosecutors say enabled a “jet-set lifestyle” featuring private aircraft, yachts and a tony Chicago home.

In 2020, Dr. John Nath Kapoor, Indian-American CEO of Insys Therapeutics, was found guilty of conspiring to recklessly and illegally boost profits from the opioid painkiller Subsys, a fentanyl spray designed to be absorbed under the tongue, according to multiple media reports.

Rajat Gupta, an Indian-American former global head of McKinsey & Company, was convicted of insider trading in 2012. He was charged with passing on confidential business information about Goldman Sachs to hedge fund manager Raj Rajaratnam. Gupta was found guilty on multiple counts of conspiracy and securities fraud and served a two-year prison sentence.

India Ranks Number One For Misinformation and Disinformation

Beyond the hub of scams and frauds, it seems that India has earned a reputation as the epicenter of misinformation and disinformation. According to experts surveyed for the World Economic Forum’s 2024 Global Risk Report, India was ranked highest for the risk of misinformation and disinformation. This was on full display during the recent conflict with Pakistan.

After the recent Pahalgam militant attack in Kashmir, the Indian government immediately blamed it on Pakistan without any investigation or evidence. More than a month later, the perpetrators have neither been clearly identified nor apprehended. And yet, the government of Prime Minister Modi proceeded with air strikes inside Pakistan. Pakistan retaliated and shot down several Indian fighter jets, including its most advanced French Rafales. The conflict began to quickly escalate with strikes and counter-strikes, with the world fearing a nuclear exchange. This prompted the United States and several other countries to intervene and force a ceasefire in less than 4 days of armed conflict.

During this short 4-day period, the Indian mainstream media was filled with lies. Here's how the Washington Post reported this: "Times Now Navbharat reported that Indian forces had entered Pakistan; TV9 Bharatvarsh told viewers that Pakistan’s prime minister had surrendered; Bharat Samachar said he was hiding in a bunker. All of them, along with some of the country’s largest channels — including Zee News, ABP News and NDTV — repeatedly proclaimed that major Pakistani cities had been destroyed".

It is unfortunate but true: Fraud and falsehood have become endemic in the Indian society. Part of the blame falls squarely on the ruling BJP party which promotes falsehoods. In 2018, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's right-hand man and home minister Amit Shah told his party's volunteers commonly known as Modi Bhakts: "We can keep making messages go viral, whether they are real or fake, sweet or sour". "Keep making messages go viral. We have already made a WhatsApp group with 32 lakh people in Uttar Pradesh; every morning they are sent a message at 8 am", Shah added, according to a report in Dainik Bhaskar, an Indian Hindi-language daily newspaper.

PakAlumni Social Network

Monday, April 28, 2025

Pahalgam Attack: Why is the Indian Media Not Asking Hard Questions?

A recent terrorist attack on April 22 in Kashmir has killed 26 Indian tourists. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu Nationalist government took no time to blame Pakistan for the attack and vowed to "punish" the neighbor for it. Indian media, also derisively known as "Godi media", immediately went into overdrive to demand action against Pakistan. New Delhi followed up with suspending the Indus Basin Water treaty from the 1960s which guarantees 80% of the water from the three western rivers (Chenab, Jhelum and Indus rivers) to Pakistan, while India gets the exclusive use of the water from three eastern rivers (Beas, Ravi and Sutlej rivers). India also ordered Pakistani visitors to leave the country and reduced Pakistani diplomatic staff posted in India. Pakistan responded by suspending Simla Agreement and banning overflights of Indian civilian and military aircraft through its airspace. Pakistan warned India that any attempt to block its share of water from the three western rivers will be an "act of war", adding that it was prepared to respond, “with full force across the complete spectrum of national power”. Pakistan is a nuclear-armed country, as is India. Pakistan's nuclear doctrine calls for the use of nuclear weapons if its national existence is threatened by any country.

Shankaracharya Swami Avimukteshwaranand Saraswati

The Indian mainstream media has amplified the Modi government's propaganda and abandoned its role of asking the hard questions to get at the truth. Among the few who have raised serious doubts about Delhi's narrative is a Hindu religious leader named Shankaracharya Swami Avimukteshwaranand Saraswati. In a viral video, the holy man has asked the following questions:

1. Shouldn't our "chowkidar" (Modi has called himself chowkidar in the past) be held accountable for any attacks on our home?

2. How did the attackers manage to come in, carry out the attack without any resistance and safely escape?

3. How did you so quickly determine that the attackers came from Pakistan? And if you are so good at reaching this conclusion so quickly, why were you unable to stop the attack in the first place.

4. Can India really cut off water flow instantly to Pakistan to "punish" it? Experts say it will take at least 20 years if India allocated unlimited funds to make it happen as fast as possible. It will require building dams, water reservoirs and canals to divert the water from Pakistan.

Pakistani journalist Najam Sethi sees the hand of "Indian deep state" at work in Pahalgam, carried out while the US Vice President JD Vance in India. Sethi recalls what former American Secretary of State Madeleine Albright wrote in her memoirs titled "Mighty Almighty" about the killing of 35 Sikh villagers in Kashmir that India blamed on Pakistan during US President Bill Clinton's India visit in March, 2000. She said Clinton suspected the hand of Hindu extremists in the Chittisinghpura incident. She quoted him saying that if he hadn’t made the trip, the victims would have still been alive.

Among the Indian journalists, only Bharat Bhushan has raised some questions about his country's government narrative. He thinks India violated the back-channel agreement between Modi's NSA Ajit Doval and Pakistan's then NSA Moeed Yusuf reached after 2019 to spare the civilians on both sides in any proxy attacks. Bhushan points out a warning from Lt General Ahmad Sharif that “the (Jaafar Express) train attack (in Balochistan) has changed the rule of the game”.

Bhushan's op ed mentions Modi's muscular policy toward people he sees as "terrorists". Canada, Pakistan and the United States have all accused the Indian government of a campaign of international assassinations. He writes: "Another development has been the targeted killings of terrorists and militants — both Kashmir and Sikhs, that Pakistan alleges have been initiated by Indian intelligence agencies after the Pulwama terrorist strike in 2019 when 40 paramilitary personnel were killed. India was allegedly inspired to undertake extra-judicial killings on foreign soil, from the example of Russia’s KGB, Israel’s Mossad, and the assassination of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi Arabia".

Bhushan concludes his Op Ed in Deccan Herald as follows: "How will India react now to what it believes to be Pakistan-sponsored terrorism? The bravado about punishing every terrorist act with greater-than-expected force is not going to be easy to put in action. Geopolitical circumstances have changed since 2019. Public sentiment cannot be the sole basis of military strikes. Thankfully, no crucial election is in the offing where assuaging public emotions becomes an issue. India will also have to provide proof to the world that Pakistan was indeed involved. This would require the arrest and questioning of the terrorists involved. That may take time. Only the tacit approval of the US can ensure that a strike against Pakistan does not spin out of control".

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Saturday, April 19, 2025

International Schools: Pakistan Ranks Among Top 5 Countries in the World

Pakistan ranks among the top 5 nations in terms of international schools offering schooling based on International Baccalaureate (IB) and IGCSE (Cambridge) curricula. China leads with 1,000 international schools, followed by India (900), UAE (784), Pakistan (598) and Brazil (415). The medium of instruction in these schools is English.

Aitchison College, Lahore, Pakistan

The international schools in India and Pakistan date back to the days of the British Raj when these schools were established to serve the children of the British and the British-Indian civil servants. Later, these schools also attracted the children of diplomats and expats as well as Indian and Pakistani elites. Today, the vast majority of students attending these schools are the children of rich Indians and Pakistanis.

Karachi Grammar School, Karachi, Pakistan

The international schools favored by Pakistani elites include Aitchison College, Karachi Grammar School, Lahore Grammar School and the American International Schools located in Islamabad, Karachi and Lahore. The tuition at the most expensive international schools in Pakistan runs from $12,000 to $15,000 a year. Beaconhouse schools in Pakistan cost less than these select schools. The graduates of international schools often attend elite universities in the UK and the United States, in addition to top Pakistani private universities like LUMS (Lahore University of Management Sciences) in Lahore and the Aga Khan University in Karachi.

The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan

Former finance minister Dr. Miftah Ismail, a member of Karachi's rich business elite, attended Karachi Grammar School and went on to earn a PhD from UPenn's Wharton School of Business. In an article in Dawn newspaper titled "The One Percent Republic", he wrote about elitism in education as follows:

"There are around 400,000 schools in Pakistan. Yet in some years half of our Supreme Court judges and members of the federal cabinet come from just one school: Aitchison College in Lahore. Karachi Grammar School provides an inordinate number of our top professionals and richest businessmen. If we add the three American schools, Cadet College Hasanabdal (alma mater of military top brass) and a few expensive private schools, maybe graduating 10,000 kids in total, we can be sure that these few kids will be at the top of most fields in Pakistan in the future, just as their fathers are at the very top today..... Pakistan’s economy thus only relies on whatever a small elite can achieve. It remains underdeveloped as it ignores the talent of most in the country."

Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS)

Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan attended Aitchison College, an elite school established in Lahore by South Asia's colonial rulers to produce faithful civil servants during the British Raj. He then went on to graduate from Oxford University in England. Here's an excerpt of what he wrote in an article published by the Arab News on January 14, 2002:

"My generation grew up at a time when colonial hang up was at its peak. Our older generation had been slaves and had a huge inferiority complex of the British. The school I went to was similar to all elite schools in Pakistan. Despite gaining independence, they were, and still are, producing replicas of public schoolboys rather than Pakistanis. I read Shakespeare, which was fine, but no Allama Iqbal — the national poet of Pakistan. The class on Islamic studies was not taken seriously, and when I left school I was considered among the elite of the country because I could speak English and wore Western clothes. Despite periodically shouting ‘Pakistan Zindabad’ in school functions, I considered my own culture backward and religion outdated. Among our group if any one talked about religion, prayed or kept a beard he was immediately branded a Mullah. Because of the power of the Western media, our heroes were Western movie stars or pop stars. When I went to Oxford already burdened with this hang up, things didn’t get any easier. At Oxford, not just Islam, but all religions were considered anachronism."

Saturday, April 12, 2025

Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum Draws Interest of Global Investors

Pakistan's mineral resources, estimated to be over $6 trillion, attracted global investor interest at the Pakistan Minerals Investors Forum 2025 (PMIF2025) held recently in Islamabad on April 8th and 9th. It was attended by major international companies and government officials from Australia, Canada, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, the US and other nations.

Pakistan is known to have large deposits of critical minerals from copper and gold to lithium. Canadian Mining Journal has described the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan as "Saudi Arabia of lithium". These deposits are found in various parts of the country, including Balochistan, Gilgit, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, and the Exclusive Economic Zone of Pakistan's coastal waters. The Geological Survey of Pakistan also notes the potential of lithium in LCT-type pegmatites and super arid salt lakes. Pakistan's major lithium-bearing areas are found in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Tribal Areas (FATA), contributing about 85% of the country's lithium production.

Pakistan Minerals Map. Source: ResearchGate

The Trump administration is interested in working with Pakistan to explore the potential for cooperation in meeting the US needs for critical minerals. "Critical minerals are the raw materials necessary for our most advanced technologies," said Eric Meyer, a senior official for the Department of State's Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, who attended the PMIF2025 in Islamabad. He said Pakistan's "vast mineral potential" can benefit the United States as he highlighted the White House's strategic priority to secure diverse and reliable sources of critical minerals.

Eric Meyer's participation in the PMIF2025 was preceded by a phone call from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. After the call, the US State Department readout said, "The Secretary raised prospects for engagement on critical minerals and expressed interest in expanding commercial opportunities for U.S. companies".

In January of this year, Gentry Beach, an American billionaire investor and a close Trump ally, visited Pakistan to look for investment opportunities in the mining sector. Upon his return to the United States, Beach praised Pakistan government’s policies as “favorable for business and investment" and expressed keen interest in investing across various sectors. In a viral TikTok video of his speech at Trump's Florida home at Mar a Lago, Gentry said, " Last week, I had the benefit of visiting Pakistan, an amazing country.....unfortunately, the previous administration (Biden administration), burned every possible bridge they could, they even put sanctions on Pakistan, a close US ally... they (Pakistanis) have sacrificed so much for the American people....Pakistan is a country that we (US) need to build a strong bridge to and partnership with".

Pakistan has one of the world’s largest porphyry copper-gold mineral zones. The Reko Diq mine in southwestern Balochistan province has an estimated 5.9 billion tons of copper ore. At current prices, the value of copper and gold deposits at Reko Diq in Balochistan province is nearly $200 billion. It is expected to generate $70 billion in free cash flow and $90 billion in operating cash flow over 37 years.

Barrick Gold CEO Mark Bristow has said he’s “super excited” about the company’s Reko Diq copper-gold development in Pakistan. Speaking about the Pakistani mining project at a conference in the US State of Colorado, the South Africa-born Bristow said “This is like the early days in Chile, the Escondida discoveries and so on”, according to Mining.com, a leading industry publication. "It has enormous upside potential". He was referring to Pakistan’s untapped discovery potential. Escondida was the first discovery of copper in Chile which is now the world's largest producer and exporter of copper. Last year, the South American country exported nearly $20 billion worth of copper.

“Copper has no substitutes,” Bristow continued. “It is as strategic as gold is precious, and we’re bringing new copper projects online just as the supply squeeze hits.” Comparing Reko Diq to Escondida, he said "walking across, there's more than one porphyry, significantly more than one, it's a real endowment for the people of Balochistan and greater Pakistan". "It (Reko Diq) is world class, a gold mine on its own and a copper mine on its own". He expects a peak of 10,000 jobs during construction and 5,500-6,000 direct jobs to operate the Reko Diq mine afterwards. It will also create a lot of indirect job opportunities in the supply chain. "We are going to demonstrate (in Balochistan) that you can do something transformatory, both socially and economically".

The biggest foreign investor in Pakistan's mining sector is Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold with a projected investment of $5 billion. It is followed by the Saudi Manara Minerals with $540 million. World Bank's investment arm IFC has committed $300 million for Reko Diq. Pakistan's state-owned OGDCL has recently announced it is increasing its investment in Reko Diq to $627 million.

The biggest challenge Pakistan faces is one of security in the remote areas where its mineral resources are located. Pakistani military chief General Asim Munir believes he can deal with it effectively. He made assurances to investors that his forces will ensure security. Another challenge is one of lack of political stability which is a matter of great concern to investors.

Friday, April 4, 2025

Trump's Tariffs Shock the World

President Donald Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" has shocked the world. Nations and corporations were all expecting the US to increase tariffs but the scope and scale have caused severe tremors in the global economy. There's a base level of 10% tariffs on all trading partners. Imports from China (54%), Vietnam (46%), Bangladesh (37%), Pakistan (29%), India (26%), Japan (24%) and the European Union (20%) are all subject to higher tariffs. Even the poor African nation of Lesotho (GDP: $2.5 billion) has not been spared. It is now subject to a 50% tariff on the jeans it exports to the United States.

Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs. Source: CNBC

The charts showing President Trump's claimed tariffs on US imports by other countries have no resemblance to reality. For example, the US Commerce Department claims Pakistan imposes a 58% tariff on imports from the US. Pakistan's trade weighted average tariffs on the US goods were 7.3% compared to 9.9% that the US charges on imports from Pakistan, according to the Pakistani Ministry of Commerce. Financial writer James Surowiecki has reverse engineered what the Trump team did to come up with the "tariffs charged to the U.S.A." column. Surowiecki found that these figures were worked out by dividing the US trade deficit with each country by the total US imports from that country. For example, the US buys more goods from China than it sells to them - there is a goods trade deficit of $295 billion. The total amount of goods it buys from China is $440 billion. Dividing 295 by 440 gets you to 67%.

Trump's Tariffs. Source: Express Tribune

Higher tariffs on imports will raise the prices paid by the US consumers for imported goods such as electronics and textiles. And higher prices tend to depress demand. So Pakistan's main exports of textiles to the US will mean higher prices and lower demand. However, what is important is the difference in tariffs charged on imports from various countries. The fact that tariffs applied to Pakistani exports are lower than those applied to Bangladeshi, Chinese and Vietnamese textiles could help Pakistan gain market share in the US. In addition, Pakistan could attract Chinese manufacturers' investment who could then export their products from Pakistan to the US market.

The biggest fear expressed by most mainstream economists is that the Trump tariffs could trigger a global economic slowdown. Global investors have already sharply driven down major stock market indices across the globe. China, the world's second biggest economy, has already retaliated with 34% additional tariffs on imports from the US. Wharton economist Professor Jeremy Siegel has compared Trump's tariffs to the Smoot-Hawley tariffs that caused the Great Depression of the 1930s. Trump's tariffs put the effective tariff rate above the level of around 20% set by 1930’s Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.

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Indian-American Ashley Tellis Advocates For US Strategic Altruism with India

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Saturday, March 22, 2025

World Happiness Report 2025: Poor Ranking Makes Indians Very Unhappy

Pakistan has outranked India yet again on the World Happiness Index, making Indians very very unhappy. Indian media commentators' strong negative emotional reaction to their nation's poor ranking betrays how unhappy they are even as they insist they are happier than their neighbors. Coming from the privileged upper castes, these commentators call the report "absurd", citing India's higher per capita incomes and its space program. They seem detached from the real conditions in which the vast majority of Indians find themselves. They fail to acknowledge the high levels of inequality and unemployment prevalent in their country. A CNBC report last year found that one billion Indians have a per capita income of just $1,000 a year, lower than that of sub-Saharan Africans. 92.5% of Indians live in conditions similar to or worse than those experienced by the poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa. No wonder India ranks alongside the poorest sub-Saharan African nations in the World Happiness Report 2025.

World Happiness Map. Source: World Happiness Report 2025

Pakistan (109) has not only outranked India (118) but also ranked higher than Sri Lanka (133) and Bangladesh (134). The authors of the 2035 happiness report said new evidence indicates that engaging in acts of generosity and believing in the kindness of others are “significant predictors of happiness, even more so than earning a higher salary”. The family is a source of joy and support for most people, the report found. Couples who live with at least one child, or couples who live with children and members of their extended family, have especially high average life satisfaction.

Income Inequality in India

An inequality report on India found that 92.5% of Indians live in economic conditions similar to those found in the poorest nations of sub-Saharan Africa. Only 0.5% of Indians enjoy incomes comparable to average Singaporeans, while 2% have incomes of average Polish citizens and 5% similar to Mexicans.

India Among Most Unequal Nations. Source: World Inequality Report

Finland tops the World Happiness Report 2025 rankings, making it the happiest country for the eighth year in a row. It is followed by Denmark and Iceland. Other nations in the top 15 include Sweden, the Netherlands, Costa Rica, and Norway.

Wealth Held By Top 1% in Asian Countries. Source: Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report 2024

Even the higher-income Indians are unhappy. Millions of them are voting with their feet and leaving their country of birth in droves. India is losing its best and brightest to the West, particularly to the United States, at an increasingly rapid pace. A 2023 study of the 1,000 top scorers in the 2010 entrance exams to the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) — a network of prestigious institutions of higher learning based in 23 Indian cities — revealed the scale of the problem. Around 36% migrated abroad, and of the top 100 scorers, 62% left the country, according to a report in the science journal Nature. Nearly two-thirds of those leaving India are highly educated, having received academic or vocational training. This is the highest for any country, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Example of The Great Indian Brain Drain. Source: Boston Political Review

Brain drain is defined as the loss of precious human capital of a nation. It is a “consequence of an education system designed for ‘selecting’ the best and brightest in an economy that is still too controlled and cannot create opportunities for its best and brightest”, according to Indian economist Shruti Rajagopalan. High-profile examples of India's human capital loss include Satya Nadella (Microsoft), Sundar Pichai (Google), Shantanu Narayen (Adobe), Arvind Krishna (IBM) and Ajay Banga (World Bank).

Foreign-Born STEM Workers in America. Source: American Immigration Council

Growing number of Indian students are going abroad for higher education each year and 90% of them never return home after completing their studies. In 2022, the number of Indian students leaving the country for higher education reached a six-year high of 770,000. And a 2021 report estimated that around two million Indian students would be studying abroad by 2024.

Many developing countries are experiencing brain drain. But India is losing its best brightest at a much faster rate than others. Some call it "The Great Indian Brain Drain". This is the reason why Indians in the United States are the best educated and the highest earning group. In a recently published book titled "The Other One Percent", authors Sanjoy Chakravorty, Devesh Kapur and Nirvikar Singh explain this phenomenon.

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Are Some Pakistanis Feeding Modi's Delusions of Grandeur?

Is the West Unwittingly Helping Modi Realize His Akhand Bharat Hindutva Dream?

Has Pakistan Lost All Wars?

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Tuesday, March 11, 2025

Trump's Policies Ringing Alarm Bells in Delhi

"We are in Zelenskyy’s shoes now", read a recent headline in a major Indian newspaper. There are similar concerns being raised in other world capitals in Asia and Europe after President Donald Trump's decisions to cut military supplies and stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine following a White House summit with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine who is facing the military might of Russia on the battlefield in Europe.

From L to R: Putin, Trump, Xi and Modi

“My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” said Friedrich Merz, Germany's chancellor-elect. Singapore Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen said the US has “changed from liberator to great disruptor to a landlord seeking rent”.

The events of last week have revived the memory of a quote attributed to former US Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger who is reported to have said: "The word will go out to the nations of the world that it may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."

New Delhi has been counting on Washington's help to fend off hostile China which sits on its doorsteps. There are some Indians who believe Russia would come to India's help in the event of war with China. But former US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan threw cold water on this idea when he said: "In fact, it (Russia) is becoming the junior partner to China. And in that way, they would side with China over India any day of the week".

Trump has fundamentally changed the geopolitics of Asia and Europe. Old alliances no longer matter. Now it's all about each transaction which Trump wants to ensure favors the United States.

During the last Trump Administration in 2019, India's friends in Washington argued for a US policy of "strategic altruism" with India. The new Trump administration seems to be rejecting such talk. Prior to his recent meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House, President Donald Trump described India as the "worst abuser of tariffs" and announced "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian imports to the United States. At the same time, Mr. Trump cracked down on both legal and illegal immigration from India. His administration is deporting thousands of illegal Indian immigrants in handcuffs and shackles on US military aircraft. Meanwhile, stringent new regulations on temporary work visas could significantly delay visa processing times and reduce the number of Indian workers employed in the United States on H1B visas.

Tariffs Comparison. Source: BBC

In a 2019 piece titled "The India Dividend: New Delhi Remains Washington’s Best Hope in Asia" published in Foreign Affairs journal, authors Robert Blackwill and Ashley Tellis argued that the Trump Administration should continue the US policy of "strategic altruism" with India that began with US-India nuclear agreement. They asked President Trump to ignore the fact that the US companies and economy have only marginally benefited, if at all, from this policy. They see India as a "superpower in waiting" and urge Washington to focus on the goal of having India as an ally to check China's rise. They see Chinese support for India's arch-rival Pakistan and China’s growing weight in South Asia and beyond as a threat to India.

India Tops Source Countries For H1B Visa Holders. Source: USCIS

Trump's trade and immigration policies are going to hurt India at a time when its economic growth is declining and job growth is stagnant. The latest Indian annual budget has offered middle class tax relief to spur growth. But economists warn it may not be enough for the vast majority of Indians, whose income still falls below taxable limits and who may still be reeling from the impact of the COVID pandemic, which devastated their earnings, according to a report in Aljazeera. “There is a vast base [of people] where recovery has not come back after the pandemic,” says Kaushik Basu, professor of economics at Cornell University. “We see this in data that the agricultural labour base has increased. And agriculture may well be just a parking spot.”

Illegal immigration from India to the US has dramatically increased on Prime Minister Modi's watch. A Pew Research Center report said that as of 2022, India ranked third, after Mexico and El Salvador, on the list of countries with the largest number of undocumented immigrants — 725,000 — living in the U.S.

India has a serious unemployment problem, particularly for the young people entering the job market by the millions each year. This problem is concealed by headline economic growth figures highlighted by the Modi government. At the same time, India is losing its best and brightest in a massive brain drain.

President Trump has clearly not taken the advice of India's friends in Washington. He is in no mood for "strategic altruism". Instead, the Trump Administration has signaled that it will treat ties with India as just another transactional relationship.

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Haq's Musings

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