Thursday, December 23, 2021

India Is Among The World's Most Unequal Countries

India is one of the most unequal countries in the world, according to the World Inequality Report 2022. There is rising poverty and hunger. Nearly 230 million middle class Indians have slipped below the poverty line, constituting a 15 to 20% increase in poverty. India ranks 94th among 107 nations ranked by World Hunger Index in 2020. Other South Asians have fared better: Pakistan (88), Nepal (73), Bangladesh (75), Sri Lanka (64) and Myanmar (78) – and only Afghanistan has fared worse at 99th place. Meanwhile, the wealth of Indian billionaires jumped by 35% during the pandemic. 

Income Inequality Map. Source: World Inequality Report 2022

Unemployment Crisis: 

India lost 6.8 million salaried jobs and 3.5 million entrepreneurs in November alone. Many among the unemployed can no longer afford to buy food, causing a significant spike in hunger. The country's economy is finding it hard to recover from COVID waves and lockdowns, according to data from multiple sources. At the same time, the Indian government has reported an 8.4% jump in economic growth in the July-to-September period compared with a contraction of 7.4% for the same period a year earlier.  

Income Inequality By Regions. Source: World Inequality Report 2022

Income & Wealth Inequality. Source: World Inequality Report 2022

Rising Poverty:

Nearly 230 million middle class Indians have slipped below the poverty line, constituting a 15 to 20% increase in poverty since Covid-19 struck last year, according to Pew Research. Middle class consumption has been a key driver of economic growth in India. Erosion of the middle class will likely have a significant long-term impact on the country's economy. “India, at the end of the day, is a consumption story,” says Tanvee Gupta Jain, UBS chief India economist, according to Financial Times. “If you never recovered from the 2020 wave and then you go into the 2021 wave, then it’s a concern.”

Increasing Hunger:  

India ranks 94th among 107 nations ranked by World Hunger Index in 2020. Other South Asians have fared better: Pakistan (88), Nepal (73), Bangladesh (75), Sri Lanka (64) and Myanmar (78) – and only Afghanistan has fared worse at 99th place. The COVID19 pandemic has worsened India's hunger and malnutrition. Tens of thousands of Indian children were forced to go to sleep on an empty stomach as the daily wage workers lost their livelihood and Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in the South Asian nationPakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan opted for "smart lockdown" that reduced the impact on daily wage earners. China, the place where COVID19 virus first emerged, is among 17 countries with the lowest level of hunger. 

Rich Getting Richer:

The wealth of Indian billionaires increased by 35% during the lockdown and by 90 per cent since 2009 to $422.9 billion, ranking India sixth in the world after the US, China, Germany, Russia, and France, according to Oxfam

India’s 100 top billionaires saw their fortunes increase by Rs 12,97,822 crore since March last year when the Covid-19 pandemic hit the country and this amount is enough to give 138 million poorest Indians a cheque for Rs 94,045 each, according to a report in The Business Standard

Share of Income of Richest 1% in South Asia
Inequality in Pakistan:

A United Nations report on inequality in Pakistan published in April 2021 revealed that the richest 1% Pakistanis take 9% of the national income.  A quick comparison with other South Asian nations shows that the 9% income share for the top 1% in Pakistan is lower than 15.8% in Bangladesh and 21.4% in India. These inequalities result mainly from a phenomenon known as "elite capture" that allows a privileged few to take away a disproportionately large slice of public resources such as public funds and land for their benefit. 

Income Distribution by Quintiles in Pakistan. Source: UNDP

Elite Capture:

Elite capture, a global phenomenon,  is a form of corruption. It describes how public resources are exploited by a few privileged individuals and groups to the detriment of the larger population. 

A recently published report by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) has found that the elite capture in Pakistan adds up to an estimated $17.4 billion - roughly 6% of the country's economy. 

Pakistan's most privileged groups include the corporate sectorfeudal landlordspoliticians and the  military. The UN Development Program's NHDR for Pakistan, released last week, focused on issues of inequality in the country of 220 million people. 

Ms. Kanni Wignaraja, assistant secretary-general and regional chief of the UNDP, told Aljazeera that Pakistani leaders have taken the findings of the report “right on” and pledged to focus on prescriptive action. “My hope is that there is strong intent to review things like the current tax and subsidy policies, to look at land and capital access", she added. 

Inequality in Pakistan. Source: UNDP

Income Inequality:

The richest 1% of Pakistanis take 9% of the national income, according to the UNDP report titled "The three Ps of inequality: Power, People, and Policy". It was released on April 6, 2021. Comparison of income inequality in South Asia reveals that the richest 1% in Bangladesh and India claim 15.8% and 21.4% of national income respectively.

In addition to income inequality, the UNDP report describes the inequality of opportunity in terms of access to services, work with dignity and accessibility. It is based on exhaustive statistical analysis at national and provincial levels, and includes new inequality indices for child development, youth, labor and gender. Qualitative research, through focus groups with marginalized communities, has also been undertaken, and the NHDR 2020 Inequality Perception Survey conducted. The NHDR 2020 has been guided by a diverse panel of Advisory Council members, including policy makers, development practitioners, academics, and UN representatives.


Neoliberal policies in emerging markets like India have spurred economic growth in last few decades. However, the gains from this rapid growth have been heavily skewed in favor of the rich. The rich have gotten richer while the poor have languished. The average per capita income in India has tripled in recent decades but the minimum dietary intake has fallen. According to the World Food Program, a quarter of the world's undernourished people live in India. The COVID19 pandemic has further widened the gap between the rich and poor. 

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Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel


Riaz Haq said...

Faseeh Mangi
Pakistan's subsidized house finance scheme data
-260b rupees ($1.5 billion) requested by people
-109b rupees ($600 million) approved for small houses
- 32b rupees disbursed


Prime Minister Imran Khan on Wednesday formally launched the Naya Pakistan Card initiative, bringing mega welfare programmes of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) government covering health, education, food and agriculture sectors under one umbrella.

With the launch of Naya Pakistan Card, which covers Ehsaas Ration Programme based on a food subsidy package for low-income families, Kisan Card, Sehat Card and scholarships for students, beneficiaries of various initiatives can avail all services on the same card.

Addressing the ceremony held at the Governor House, Prime Minister Khan said that Kamyab Pakistan scheme was also in the pipeline under which two million eligible families would receive Rs400,000 interest-free loans for self-employment, free technical education to one member of each registered family, Rs2.7 million loan for house construction and free health insurance.

He said the proposed Kamyab Pakistan programme to be launched in the KP province would be extended to other provinces later.

Says a project promising interest-free loan for 2m eligible families is on the anvil

Besides, the government was awarding 6.3m scholarships to students to encourage them to pursue higher education as Rs47bn had been allocated in this regard, he said.

In order to ensure award of scholarships on merit, a special cell was being set up at the PM secretariat to collect students’ data, he announced

samir sardana said...

The Key line is "The wealth of Indian billionaires increased by 35% during the lockdown"

GST + DEMO + COVID has completed the transfer of enterprise and wealth,from the SME and Unorganised sector,to the ELITE !

ELITE in Indua = Panwari Brahmin,Bania,Marwari,Gujarati,Rjasthani,Jain and Kayastha ! These are the vermins of Undia.

Bania Chaiwala has used COVID in the best possible manner.Jobs in Govtt are frozen and outsourcing is increased,on the pretext of infections and COVID.The education system is doomed,as the Indians have lost 2 years of eductaion.Those who will graduate,will have NO GOVERNMENT JOBS,as the GOI and states,have downsized,and have NOT FILLED SC/ST quotas,as a strategem.Even the spending of the GOI on education,will be cut,and the shift will be to e-education,shutting down schools and teachers.

What is the purpose of the above ? The aim of Chaiwala is TO STOP STATE RECRUITMENT and FLOOD THE PRIVATE SECTOR WITH SKILLED AND SEMI-SKILLED PERSONS - WHO CANNOT BE EMPLOYED. That will crash labour and wages - to benefit the Panwaris !

But the Coup is that,on the pretext of COVID - Chaiwala has pushed in NMP !

India is the ONLY Nation in the world,which HAS USED COVID as an OPPORTUNITY,to do an NMP,Privatise Ports,and raise GST and ED,on Fuels and Edible oils – for its fiscal management, which would have been UNTHINKABLE,IF COVID were not there !

NMP is a privatisation and disinvestment,via an operating and/or financial lease.The purpose is NOT to raise funds – as else,the idle/surplus/loss making assets could have been quarantined, in a SPV and sold off,or a JV partner brought in.The purpose is NOT to improve efficiency,as else the assets could have been transferred to a toll operator on a pure O&M Contract (SO NO LEASE CHARGES),with a bonus for INCREMENTAL EFFICIENCY.

The Purpose of the NMP,is also NOT to cut staff costs,as the GOI is the owner of the asset,and so,the staff cost is a sunk cost – who will remain a burden on the GOI,or take a VRS,or hopefully die over the lease tenor.

The Purpose of the NMP,is NOT to increase bank credit,as banks would lend better to a SPV, which had ownership of the asset.W/o an asset, a bank will lend on Balance sheet and Guarantees of Promoters of the operating lessee – wherein THERE WILL NO MORTAGEABLE SECURITY.Banks cannot possess the GOI ASSET, if the lessee goes bust.Of Course,a new lessee can step in – but if the first lessor could not make a profit on the asset,the reasons for the losses,are beyond redemption.

The lessors will obviously make a neat profit (for the NON-MANUFACTURING AND NON PRODUCTION ASSETS – like Roads,Hydro,Bridges,Stadiums etc.,) with the aid of bank leverage, and on the expiry of the lease period,will buy the asset – after a ICB.By then,the banks would have assessed,tested and appraised the technical and managerial competency of the lessor – and so.the Banks and PEs etc.,will easily fund the acquisition.In the alternate the GOI could takeover over the property and land developments (to collect the rentals etc.or do another lease of the same) by the lessor (after the lease expiry) , and just hand over the core toll asset to a ICB Buyer.

The Manufacturing assets leased under the NMP,(like Thermal Power plants etc.) will become junk in 20 years and also technically obsolete,and so the GOI will have no use in its repossession – except to set up a refurbished plant and sell of the surplus land.In 20 years,the land used for the same manufacturing capacity will fall by at least 50%,and so that surplus land will be windfall to the GOI,and the GOI will be glad to let the lessor acquire the plant and take a bank loan to refurbish it.dindooohindoo

All actions of the Chaiwala = Benefit of Panwari Banias

Riaz Haq said...

India’s Stalled Rise
How the State Has Stifled Growth
By Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman
January/February 2022

As growth slowed, other indicators of social and economic progress deteriorated. Continuing a long-term decline, female participation in the labor force reached its lowest level since Indian independence in 1948. The country’s already small manufacturing sector shrank to just 13 percent of overall GDP. After decades of improvement, progress on child health goals, such as reducing stunting, diarrhea, and acute respiratory illnesses, stalled.

And then came COVID-19, bringing with it extraordinary economic and human devastation. As the pandemic spread in 2020, the economy withered, shrinking by more than seven percent, the worst performance among major developing countries. Reversing a long-term downward trend, poverty increased substantially. And although large enterprises weathered the shock, small and medium-sized businesses were ravaged, adding to difficulties they already faced following the government’s 2016 demonetization, when 86 percent of the currency was declared invalid overnight, and the 2017 introduction of a complex goods and services tax, or GST, a value-added tax that has hit smaller companies especially hard. Perhaps the most telling statistic, for an economy with an aspiring, upwardly mobile middle class, came from the automobile industry: the number of cars sold in 2020 was the same as in 2012.


Adding to a decade of stagnation, the ravages of COVID-19 have had a severe effect on Indians’ economic outlook. In June 2021, the central bank’s consumer confidence index fell to a record low, with 75 percent of those surveyed saying they believed that economic conditions had deteriorated, the worst assessment in the history of the survey.

Riaz Haq said...

India’s Stalled Rise
How the State Has Stifled Growth
By Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman
January/February 2022

For the Indian economy to achieve its potential, however, the government will need a sweeping new approach to policy—a reboot of the country’s software. Its industrial policy must be reoriented toward lower trade barriers and greater integration into global supply chains. The national champions strategy should be abandoned in favor of an approach that treats all firms equally. Above all, the policymaking process itself needs to be improved, so that the government can establish and maintain a stable economic environment in which manufacturing and exports can flourish.

But there is little indication that any of this will occur. More likely, as India continues to make steady improvements in its hardware—its physical and digital infrastructure, its New Welfarism—it will be held back by the defects in its software. And the software is likely to prove decisive. Unless the government can fundamentally improve its economic management and instill confidence in its policymaking process, domestic entrepreneurs and foreign firms will be reluctant to make the bold investments necessary to alter the country’s economic course.

There are further risks. The government’s growing recourse to majoritarian and illiberal policies could affect social stability and peace, as well as the integrity of institutions such as the judiciary, the media, and regulatory agencies. By undermining democratic norms and practices, such tendencies could have economic costs, too, eroding the trust of citizens and investors in the government and creating new tensions between the federal administration and the states. And India’s security challenges on both its eastern and its western border have been dramatically heightened by China’s expansionist activity in the Himalayas and the takeover of Afghanistan by the Pakistani-supported Taliban.

If these dynamics come to dominate, the Indian economy could experience another disappointing decade. Of course, there would still be modest growth, with some sectors and some segments of the population doing particularly well. But a broader boom that transforms and improves the lives of millions of Indians and convinces the world that India is back would be out of reach. In that case, the current government’s aspirations to global economic leadership may prove as elusive as those of its predecessors.

samir sardana said...

Take the case of El Salvador,which has a per capita of 4300 USD - way ahead of Chaiwala's Hindoosthan.

Bulk of Salvadorean wealth,is in the agri plantations,and in a few hands.So if there is people's movement,the income generating assets are there - and will in the hands of the masses.Besides in an era of energy shortage and rising prices,the nation is sitting on a volcanic gold mine


Whatever modicum of assets,were left over - are being sold,by the GOI,via the NMP !

There is beauty and symmetry,in the NMP fraud,in Hindoosthan by the Chaiwala !

The 1st Purpose of the NMP,is to SELL the asset BUT BY NOT CALLING IT A SALE – in law.If they had sold the asset,they would receive a MUGH HIGHER Valuation – but that has a huge POLITICAL COST and the CONTINGENCIES OF TIME.

The 2nd Purpose of the NMP,is to MONETISE THE LAND associated with the asset,w/o SELLING THE LAND,and outsourcing this SCAM,to a private person,so that the GOI is free of the taint and scams in the land monetisation.For example, in a toll road,the jackpot will come in the property development/promotion/adverisement/drive in theatres/malls etc.,on the land on the ROW of the Road,and other areas.If the GOI does it,there will be scams – and so,it is outsourced to the private party – who will make a killing,as his tenor is 25 years,and the GOI is getting a Pay down on Day 1 (with no comparable benchmark).The same applies to GOI stadiums,libraries,buildings,Railway stations…………………The core driver of the monetisation streams is the LAND (even for ports).

The 3rd Purpose of the NMP,is to provide a risk free lending option to Indian Banks,as the Banks are lending to the GOI,VIA THE OPERATING LEASE LESSOR (as the bank will fund a part of the lease payment to the state).If the lessee defaults,some other lessor will step in.

The 4th Purpose of the NMP,is to provide an option to the banks to BLOAT the Bank Balance Sheet,TO REDUCE THE NPA %

The 5th Purpose of the NMP is to circulate credit across the supply chain of these revived moribund assets – in the hope that some money flows to the NPA entities – so that they repay the loans.

The 6th Purpose of the NMP,is to boost the fiscal revenues of the GOI,as new business streams will be created across the supply chain – but more importantly,the leased assets
were with the GOI,in non taxable units or loss making units.Now with these assets in a lessee entity – the lessee will run the assets to make a profit – and that will be taxed,w/o any tax shelters,as the assets were constructed some time ago.

The 7th Purpose of the NMP is to use 5% of the Cash raised to do a VRS and kick out all the GOI staff on the leased assets – with an option to them,to ne hired by the lessee.

If this Titanic sails,then next will be the surplus Military and CAPF land – which will be worth USD 100 Billion at the minimum


The GOI may be able to Unlock the embedded land value,on its own – but that will come with scams – and so,it is OUTSOURCED -wherein the netas will pull all the strings – but the axe will fall on the lessee.

Indian Duds do not realise that GOI does not care for GOI jobs,or Quotas in Jobs.There is no money for these fantasies.That India died with the Chaiwala as PM.dindooohindoo

samir sardana said...

The Opportunity of the last 5000 years !

GST + DEMO + COVUD has destroyed,the SME and Unorganised sector
Education sector is dead,for 2 years
GOI is downsizing and outsourcing
There are no GOI jobs,for the SC/ST
More and more castes,are being added into the OBC class
Farming is unviable
Global warming will induce,water shortages
Kashmir is facing delimitation (this is for the "so called Muslims" who had faith in the Kaffirs,and especially Chaiwala and Fat Pancho Amit Shah - the solution is complete insurrection of the people)

There are 200 million Muslims + 200 Million Dalits + 100 Million OBCs + 50 Million Sikhs + 150 incremental Small farmers - WHO HAVE NO FUTURE IN INDIA ! THERE IS NO HOPE FOR THEM,AS THE GOI HAS NO JOBS AND NO MONEY FOR THEM ! Neither these fools nor their leaders have awoken to this priori truth !







Riaz Haq said...

#India Facing a #Population Implosion. Urban India's fertility rate is1.6, below replacement. India has "a baby factory in the north (#Bihar, #UP, #MP, #Rajasthan) and a jobs factory in the south (#TN, #Kerala, #Andhra, #Karnataka) " @dhume via @WSJOpinion

After it gained independence in 1947, India’s soaring population—made possible by advances in medicine and disease control—seemed to doom it to poverty and hunger. Droughts in the mid-1960s raised the specter of famine. In 1966 the U.S. shipped one-fourth of its wheat output to India to avert mass starvation. Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 best-seller, “The Population Bomb,” predicted that hundreds of millions would starve and that by 1977 India could fall apart “into a large number of starving, warring minor states.”


As in many countries, urbanization, rising income and female literacy, and increased contraception have led to plummeting fertility. But the biggest reason for the decline, according to Mr. Eberstadt, is hard to measure: Indian women want fewer babies.

In 1960 the average Indian woman would bear six children during her lifetime. By 2005 this had fallen to three. Urban India now has a fertility rate of 1.6, comparable to the European Union. And unlike China, whose government enforced a draconian one-child policy, India has achieved this largely without coercion. A harsh sterilization drive by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in the mid-1970s led to her crushing electoral defeat in 1977. No Indian government tried to force the matter again.

Though India may have dodged mass famine, its massive population still poses challenges. Optimists claim the country’s skew toward youth provides a demographic dividend: a large working-age cohort to support relatively few retirees.

But such sunny prognostications present only half the picture. Thanks to uneven development, in the coming decades India will house an unprecedented experiment: hundreds of millions of college graduates living among hundreds of millions of illiterates. “The education gap in India could generate an income distribution that will make Manhattan look like Sweden,” says Mr. Eberstadt.

Regional disparities complicate things further. The relatively well-educated coastal states of the south already have fertility rates well below replacement levels. Birthrates in the poor and populous Hindi heartland have fallen too, but not nearly as sharply. Three of them—Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand—remain above replacement levels.

“To oversimplify, you have a baby factory in the north and a jobs factory in the south,” says Mr. Eberstadt. “But there’s a mismatch in educational attainment between a rising cohort in the north and the needs of the economy emerging in the south.” Kerala, in the south, has a literacy rate of 96%. Bihar, in the north, is 71%.

Then there’s the most sensitive question: political representation. In the relative weight of its states, India’s Parliament has remained frozen since the 1971 census. The average parliamentarian from Uttar Pradesh represents three million people, while a counterpart from Tamil Nadu represents 1.8 million. A 2019 report by Carnegie Endowment scholars Milan Vaishnav and Jamie Hintson calculated that if Parliament were reapportioned according to the likely population in 2026, the five southern states would send 26 fewer representatives to the 545-seat Parliament. The four most populous Hindi heartland states would add 31 seats.

If India is lucky, it will defuse these problems as successfully as it dealt with food shortages a generation ago. But though the population bomb failed to explode, it doesn’t mean India is safe from other ticking time bombs.

samir sardana said...

If ISI/Turkey/PRC/Bangladesh/Myanmar,play their cards right,then the geo maps,will be as under:

Arunachal,Ladakh,Sikkim,Parts of Uttarakhand and Assam,will be a part of PRC
Bangladesh will takeover half of Assam,Tripura,and Parts of Meghalaya and Bengal
Myanmar will takeover parts of Mizo,Manipur and Nagaland
IOK will integrate with Pakistan,and you will have a separate Khalistan

All the above races,should thank Patel,that he FORCED the states and different races,to integrate with a DUBIOUS NATION,CALLED BHARAT.By doing so,these people have realised the worth of Indians, Hindoos and North and South Block.

The damage is irredeemable and irrepairable.

Had India excluded these races,it would have been a prosperous entity - and these races would HAVE ASIPRED,to integrate with BHARAT.Unfortunately,for the Hindoos,PRC HAS THRIVED, AND SO HAS BANGLADESH,AND SO HAS PAKISTAN !

Milk and Lemons do not mix and neither does Gau Mutram and Beef.

But the Indian Mongrels,never get it ! They did not learn from the history of Ranjit Singh or Ashoka - there was never a entity called India,which lasted for,even 30 years ! Ranjit Singh and Ashoka,reigned at a time - when there was no REAL COMPETITION,and weak kings ruled over,other nations.

The miracle of creation,is Pakistan - from an idea,in the brain of Jinnah - to its state today - inspite of the state sponsored terror,of the RAW and the West.

The time has come to END the existence of India.Jiye Jiye Pakistan !

Ranger said...

Indian middle class is not growing.

Car sales in 2010 2.5 million

Car sales in 2021 2.7 million

Motorcycle sales 2010 12 million

Motorcycle sales 2021 15 million

Pakistan car sales grew from 137,000 in 2010 to 198,000 in 2021

Pakistan motorcycle sales grew from 700,000 in 2010 to 2.4 million in 2021

Pakistan car sales grew from 137,000 in 2010 to 198,000 in 2021

Pakistan motorcycle sales grew from 700,000 in 2010 to 2.4 million in 2021

Riaz Haq said...

Manufacturing employment nearly half of what it was five years ago
Manufacturing accounts for nearly 17% of India's GDP, but the sector has seen employment decline sharply in last 5 years - from employing 51 million Indians in 2016-17 to reach 27.3 million in 2020-21

With the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic battering India at present, the Indian economic outlook looks bleak for the second year in a row. In 2020-21, India’s real GDP growth is estimated to be minus 8 per cent. This would also put pressure on India’s employment numbers. In previous bulletins, we have analysed the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on employment, individual and household incomes and expenditures in 2020.

In this CEDA-CMIE Bulletin, we try to take a longer-term view of sector-wise employment in India. We base this on CMIE’s monthly time-series of employment by industry going back to the year 2016. For this bulletin, we have focused on seven sectors – agriculture, mines, manufacturing, real estate and construction, financial services, non-financial services, and public administrative services. These sectors make up for 99 per cent of total employment in the country.

In figure 2 and 3 (below), we look at four sectors. These are agriculture, financial services, non-financial services, and public administrative services. Non-financial services exclude public administrative services and defense services. Together, these accounted for 69 per cent of total employment in 2016-17 and 78 per cent in 2020-21.

The agriculture sector employed 145.6 million people in 2016-17. This increased by 4 per cent to reach 151.8 million in 2020-21. While it constituted 36 per cent of all employment in 2016-17, the figure rose to 40 per cent in 2020-21, underlining the sector’s importance for the Indian economy. Employment in agriculture has been on the rise over the last two years with year-on-year (YoY) growth rates of 1.7 per cent in 2019-20 and 4.1 per cent in 2020-21.

119.7 million Indians were employed in the non-financial services in 2016-17 (excluding those in public administrative services and defense services) (Figure 3). This number rose by 6.7 per cent to reach 127.7 million in 2020-21. The financial services sector employed 5.3 million people in 2016-17 and this grew by 9 per cent to 5.8 million in 2020-21.

Public administrative services employed 9.8 million people in 2016-17 but it decreased by 19 per cent to 7.9 million in 2020-21.

In figure 4, we look at employment in manufacturing, real estate & construction, and mining sectors. Together these sectors accounted for 30 per cent of all employment in 2016-17 which came down to 21 per cent in 2020-21.

Manufacturing accounts for nearly 17 per cent of India’s GDP but the sector has seen employment decline sharply in the last 5 years. From employing 51 million Indians in 2016-17, employment in the sector declined by 46 per cent to reach 27.3 million in 2020-21. This indicates the severity of the employment crisis in India predating the pandemic.

On a YoY basis, it employed 32 per cent fewer people in 2020-21 over 2019-20. It had seen a growth of 1 per cent (YoY) in 2019-20. This has happened despite the Indian government’s push to improve manufacturing in the country with the ‘Make in India’ project. Under the project, India sought to create an additional 100 million manufacturing jobs in India by 2022 and to increase manufacturing’s contribution to GDP to 20 per cent by 2025.

Instead of increasing employment in the sector, we have seen a sharp decline over the last 5 years. When we look closely at industries that make the manufacturing sector, we find that this is a secular decline in employment across all sub-sectors, except chemical industries.

All sub-sectors within manufacturing registered a longer-term decline.

Anonymous said...

Excellent analysis by former Deputy Governor of SBP.

"Our savings and taxpaying habits"

Anonymous said...

Pakistan car sales grew from 137,000 in 2010 to 198,000 in 2021
Pakistan motorcycle sales grew from 700,000 in 2010 to 2.4 million in 2021

samir sardana said...

Riaz Haq says "Manufacturing accounts for nearly 17% of India's GDP, but the sector has seen employment decline sharply in last 5 years - from employing 51 million Indians in 2016-17 to reach 27.3 million in 2020-21"

Y ?

DEMO + GST + COVID has shifted all the capacities,to large corporates and organised sector, which was already staffed,and with higher technology.So labour use in SME and unorganised sector is dead (and labour productivity appears to have increased),and these large corporates, PAY FOR POWER - SO POWER CONSUMPTION APPEARS,TO HAVE INCREEASED.

SERVICES are indirectly for the manufacturing sector.That is ACTUALLY stagnant,as capacities have shifted,from SME to Large Corporates.So nothing will come from here !

Meanwhile,the donkey manufacturing factory,of Indian schools and colleges,is CHURNING out donkeys,on a daily basis !




Truth is that,Indians are only good for cleaning toilets,and being sold as slaves and dishwashers,in Baghdad (as in the times of Ghazni).If Ghazni had sold Chaiwala's great great grandmother - then .................


Y do the dumb Indians not insurrect - people ask ?

Indians are a race of supine weasels and cowards ! That is the Truth !

Discrimination based on caste,is in the GITA - the Hindoo's Constitution !

The Verse – 1

“It is far better to perform one’s svadharma (prescribed duties), even though faultily, than another’s duties perfectly. Destruction in the course of performing one’s own duty is better than engaging in another’s duties, for to follow another’s path is dangerous.” – Bhagavad-Gita 3:35.

The Verse – 2

“According to the three modes of material nature (goodness, passion, ignorance) and the work associated with them, the four divisions of human society (Brahmin/Kshatriya/ Vaisya/ Sudra) are created by Me .






Sample these verses of the Rigveda,on the avarice and thievery of the Brahmins

असुन्वन्तं समं जहि दूणाशं यो न ते मयः |
अस्मभ्यमस्य वेदनं दद्धि सूरिश्चिदोहते ||

“Slay everyone who pours no gift, who, hard to reach, delights you not. Bestow on us what wealth he has: this even the worshipper awaits.” [Rigveda 1:176:4]

किं ते कर्ण्वन्ति कीकटेषु गावो नाशिरं दुह्रे न तपन्तिघर्मम |
आ नो भर परमगन्दस्य वेदो नैचाशाखं मघवन्रन्धयानः ||

“O Indra, what do the cows make for you among the Kikatas? They neither yield milk for your offerings, nor do they warm the vessel of libation. Bring to us these cows; bring to us also the wealth of Parmagand (their King). O Brave one, grant us the possessions of the people of low status.” [Rigveda 3:53:14].dindooohindoo




samir sardana said...

If you see the Indian Bania Media,anchored by middle aged frigid divorcees and Indian Limpets,you will see "Indian" Muslims outdoing each other,in abusing Pakistan and Taliban !

What revolution will these Muslims lead ? Soon they will start praying to Chaiwala and Yogi Bandar Dev (Ramdev).

These illiterates cannot think ! They do not know that,the Pakistan economy and wages and consumer spend,is way ahead of,and more equitable than Hindoosthan ! Pakistan Education standards and levels,are also,way ahead of India !

Such illiterates cannot die,for any cause,or any ideology.What can these weasels do,even when the Rama Temple is Built,or when the Prophet is abused by Mr Yati ? These weasels will NOT say that,Kashmir is facing a genocide,and the people are revolting,in a freedom struggle !

They will not admit that Burhan Wani was a mujahid,and WAS KILLED,for a cause.They will not say that,the Pabdits got their true worth in Kashmir ! Pandits and Brahmins,are the scourge, of humanity - fit to be exterminated !

I do not blame these "Indian" Muslims - they have the DNA of weasel Hindoos and Dalits - and seek refuge,in the ilk of a bandit race,of Yadavs.The Charms of Krishna of the Yadavs, worked on the sexually dysfunctional Pandavs,of Pandoo

Indian Muslims need to read the fate of the Pandoos and Arjuna,the trans impotent limpet.They were all doomed,and Krishna was killed,and his wives were raped !

As per the Mahabharata, after Krishna was killed, “his wives were raped and molested by Robbers”, and the “offspring so born”, were called Yadavs

Mahabharata, Book 16: Mausala Parva: Section 7

The concourse was very large. The robbers assailed it at different points. Arjuna tried his best to protect it, “but could not succeed”. In the very sight of all the warriors, many “foremost of ladies were dragged away, while others went away with the robbers of their own accord” .

Those Mlecchas, however, O Janamejaya, in the very sight of Partha, retreated,”taking away” with them, many “foremost ladies” of the Vrishnis and Andhakas

This explains Yadav history – QED !

Arjuna - was "cursed by Urvashi ",to be an "impotent and a eunuch"

The Mahabharata, Book 3: Vana Parva: Indralokagamana Parva: Section XLVI

O Partha, thou shalt have to pass thy time among females unregarded, and as a dancer, and "destitute of manhood and scorned as a eunuch




When Krsna had killed the demons, and thus relieved the burden of the earth, he thought,

‘The earth is still overburdened by the unbearably burdensome race of the Yadus. No one else can overcome them, since they are under my protection.’ … Deluded by Krsna’s power of delusion, and cursed by the Brahmins, they were all destroyed, and when his entire family had been destroyed, Krsna said, ‘The burden has been removed.’ ” — Srimad Bhagavatam 10:90 :27-44; 11:1:1-4; 11:30:1-25



Riaz Haq said...

India has spent a decade wasting the potential of its young #population. Once considered a formidable asset, #India’s #demographic bulge turned toxic due to the country’s lost economic decade! #unemployment #Modi #BJP #Hindutva

For the better part of the past decade, India was touted as the next big economic growth story after China because of its relatively younger population. “Demographic dividend”—the potential resulting from a country’s working-age population being larger than its non-working-age population—was the key phrase.

Come 2022, the median age in India will be 28, well below 37 in China and the US.

samir sardana said...

“Demographic dividend”

Dividend needs profit ! India is Bankrupt !

Dividend can be paid from capital ! But Chaiwala has SOLD all the assets,via NMP !

The Formula for “Demographic dividend”,is wrong ! It should be "workable and employable age population",on the numerator !

The Only potential of the numerator = Making Toilets and Cleaning Toilets !

But Toilets have to be cleaned,for free !

Where are the eco-no-mists,with the Demo Dividend thesis ?

Population is a dead weight,in all Capitalist nations - for the simple reason that,private investments by capitalists,are not made to employ the masses.

Least of all in India - where the capitalists are the Panwari Bania vermin !dindooohindoo

The Biggest disaster of population,in a nation like India,is Political Risk and the Bastille Risk

Riaz Haq said...

The NMP is hardly the panacea for growth in India

As the Government has also shown, there are out-of-the-box policy initiatives to revamp public sector businesses

The National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) envisages an aggregate monetisation potential of ₹6-lakh crore through the leasing of core assets of the Central government in sectors such as roads, railways, power, oil and gas pipelines, telecom, civil aviation, shipping ports and waterways, mining, food and public distribution, coal, housing and urban affairs, and stadiums and sports complexes, to name some sectors, over a four-year period (FY2022 to FY2025). But the point is that it only underscores the need for policy makers to investigate the key reasons and processes which led to once profit-making public sector assets becoming inefficient and sick businesses.


Congress leader Sachin Pilot on Wednesday slammed the Central government over National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) by saying that the new scheme will create monopoly and duopoly in the economy.

Addressing a press conference in Bengaluru, Pilot questioned the government's decision to "lease core strategic assets of the country to private entities".

"The government said that NMP will get revenue of Rs 6 lakh crores for the next four years. The money that they will raise, will it go to fulfil the Rs 5.5 lakh crores deficit that we are running today or is it there to boost revenue," he stated.

"There is already a problem of unemployment in our country. When private entities take over the assets like railways, telecom and aviation, they will certainly lay off more people to make profits, which means more unemployment," he added.

Pilot further said that handing over important assets of the country to a handful of people will create a monopoly and duopoly in the economy.

The Congress MLA asserted that the NMP poses serious questions on the country's integrity and security. "I want to ask what stops the international funds to make an investment and take a stake in these important assets," he stated.

"There are many countries that forbid Chinese entities to bid for telecom tower or fibre optical cable. I want to question the government what safeguards have been placed in NMP to stop inappropriate entities from bidding for our core strategic assets," he added.

Pilot called the government's decision regarding NMP as 'unilateral' that happened without any discussion with trade unions, stakeholders or the Opposition. He further questioned the transparency of the whole process and how it is going to benefit people.

"Will the money raised be used to double farmers' income or to give Rs 15 lakhs to every Indian citizen as promised by the government? Or will it be used to make a building complex or in some vanity project," he questioned.

samir sardana said...

H.E. said "The NMP is hardly the panacea for growth in India"

NMP is not a growth tool - it is a wealth transfer tool !

The Editor of Hindu says "But the point is that it only underscores the need for policy makers to investigate the key reasons and processes which led to once profit-making public sector assets becoming inefficient and sick businesses"

He is a Potta Potte tamil brahmin - the lowest of the lowest ! The Indian Media is a Politician Pimping Entity !

Jat Puttar or Gujjar Puttar says "Sachin Pilot on Wednesday slammed the Central government over National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) by saying that the new scheme will create monopoly and duopoly in the economy"

















Riaz Haq said...

By Abhijit Banerjee, Nobel Laureate Economist

There’s a long tradition among social thinkers and policymakers of treating workers as walking, talking machines that turn calories into work and work into commodities that get sold on the market. Under capitalism, food is important because it provides fuel to the work force. In this line of thinking, enjoyment of food is at best a distraction and often a dangerous invitation to indolence.

The scolding American lawmakers who want to forbid the use of food stamps to purchase junk food are part of a long lineage that goes back to the Victorian workhouses, which made sure that the food was never inviting enough to encourage sloth. It is the continuing obsession with treating working-class people as efficient machines for turning nutrients into output that explains why so many governments insist on giving bags of grain to the poor instead of money that they might waste. This infantilizes the poor and, except in very special circumstances, it does nothing to improve nutrition.

The pleasure of eating, to say nothing of cooking, has no place in this narrative. And the idea that if working people knew what was good for them, they’d simply seek out more food as fuel is a woefully limited view of the eating experience of most of the world. As anybody who has been poor or has spent time with poor people knows, eating something special is a source of great excitement.

As it is for everyone. Standing at the end of this very dark and disappointing year, almost two years into a pandemic, we all need the joy of a feast — whether actual or metaphorical.

Every village has its feast days and its special festal foods. Somewhere goats will be slaughtered, somewhere ceremonial coconuts cracked. Perhaps fresh dates will be piled on special plates that come out once a year. Maybe mothers will pop sweetened balls of rice into the mouths of their children.

Friends and relatives will come over to help roast an entire camel for Eid; to share scoops of feijoada, that wonderful Brazilian stew of beans simmered with off-cuts, from pig’s ears to cow’s tongue; to pinch the dumplings for the Lunar New Year; to fold the delicate edges of sweet coconut-stuffed Maharashtrian karanji, to be fried under the watchful eye of the matriarch. The feast’s inspiration might be religious, but it could as well be a wedding, a birth, a funeral or a harvest.


This feasting season, that momentary joy is likely to feel especially essential. Most of us have had reasons to worry — about ourselves, about our children and parents, about where the world is headed. This year many lost friends and relatives, jobs and businesses. Many spent months working in Zoom-land, languishing even as they counted themselves lucky to be employed.

Riaz Haq said...

#India #Unemployment: Modi gov't said in December that 9% of all MSMEs had shut down because of #COVID19. In May, another survey of over 6,000 MSMEs and startups found that 59% were planning to shut shop, scale down or sell before the end of 2021. #economy

Baldev Kumar threw his head back and laughed at the mention of India’s resurgent GDP growth. The country’s economy clocked an 8.4-percent uptick between July and September compared with the same period last year. India’s Home Minister Amit Shah has boasted that the country might emerge as the world’s fastest-growing economy in 2022.

Kumar could not care less.

As far as he was concerned, the crumpled receipt in his hand told a different story: The tomatoes, onions and okra he had just bought cost nearly twice as much as they did in early November. The 47-year-old mechanic had lost his job at the start of the pandemic. The auto parts store he then joined shut shop earlier this year. Now working at a car showroom in the Bengaluru neighbourhood of Domlur, he is worried he might soon be laid off as auto sales remain low across India.

He has put plans for his daughter’s wedding on hold, unsure whether he can foot the bill. He used to take a bus to work. Now he walks the five-kilometre (three-mile) distance to save a few rupees. “I don’t know which India that’s in,” he said, referring to the GDP figures. “The India I live in is struggling.”

Kumar wasn’t exaggerating – even if Shah’s prognosis turns out to be correct.

Asia’s third-largest economy is indeed growing again, and faster than most major nations. Its stock market indices, such as the Sensex and Nifty, are at levels that are significantly higher than at the start of 2021 – despite a stumble in recent weeks. But many economists are warning that these indicators, while welcome, mask a worrying challenge – some describe it as a crisis – that India confronts as it enters 2022.

November saw inflation rise by 14.23 percent, building on a pattern of double-digit increases that have hit India for several months now. Fuel and energy prices rose nearly 40 percent last month. Urban unemployment – most of the better-paying jobs are in cities – has been moving up since September and is now above 9 percent, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, an independent think-tank. “Inflation hits the poor the most,” said Jayati Ghosh, a leading development economist at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University.

All of this is impacting demand: Government data shows that private consumption between April and September of 2021 was 7.7 percent lower than in 2019-2020. The economic recovery from the pandemic has so far been driven by demand from well-to-do sections of Indian society, said Sabyasachi Kar, who holds the RBI Chair at the Institute of Economic Growth. “The real challenge will start in 2022,” he told Al Jazeera. “We’ll need demand from poorer sections of society to also pick up in order to sustain growth.”


“The decimation of MSMEs is why we’re seeing core inflation, and we should be very worried,” said economist Pronab Sen, former chief statistician of India, referring to an inflation measure that leaves out food and energy because of their volatile price shifts. India’s core inflation stood at more than 6 percent in October. The level of competition in the market has also dramatically shrunk, he said. “Pricing power has shifted to a small number of large companies,” Sen told Al Jazeera. “And it is their exercise of this power that is leading to core inflation.”

When fuel prices rise globally – and subsequently in India – some inflation is unavoidable. But a competitive market usually forces companies to absorb much of that burden in their margins. Without that competition, Sen said, it is easier for firms to pass more of the increased costs on to consumers.

MSMEs have long been the backbone of the Indian labour market, employing 110 million people. Their struggles are a key reason for India’s failure to reduce unemployment rates, Sen added.

Riaz Haq said...

Long #DoctorStrike over understaffing sparks chaos at #NewDelhi hospitals. While #India’s overall case count remains low, daily infections in the capital region have risen by more than 300% over the past two weeks. #OmicronInIndia #Omicron #Modi #COVID19

Protests continued across the country and outside major hospitals in New Delhi on Tuesday, a day after police officers in the capital detained more than 2,500 protesting doctors who were walking toward the residence of India’s health minister.

Medical students from across India have joined the protests, which intensified two weeks ago and have grown angrier after police officers were seen beating junior doctors during a march on Monday.

The New Delhi government has expressed concern over a rising number of coronavirus cases and announced new measures, including a nighttime curfew, to slow the spread of the virus. While the country’s overall case count remains low, daily infections in the capital region have risen by more than 300 percent over the past two weeks, according to the Our World in Data Project at the University of Oxford. It is unclear how many of the new cases are of the Omicron variant.

As the doctors’ strike has stretched on, drawing in recent graduates and tens of thousands of the more than 70,000 doctors who work at government medical facilities nationwide, emergency health services have been the worst hit.

Videos from major state-run hospitals in New Delhi have shown patients on stretchers lying unattended outside emergency rooms. Many Indians rely on state medical facilities for care because of the high cost of treatment at private hospitals.

The protests were triggered by delays in placing medical school graduates in jobs at government health facilities, as India’s Supreme Court considers an affirmative action policy aimed at increasing the share of positions reserved for underrepresented communities. Protesting doctors say they are not against the quotas, but want the court to expedite its decision so that graduates can begin their jobs.

During India’s catastrophic coronavirus wave earlier this year, doctors and other medical personnel found themselves short-handed and underfunded as they battled an outbreak that at its height was causing 4,000 deaths a day. Doctors associations say that more 1,500 doctors have died from Covid since the pandemic began.

Riaz Haq said...

#India's #Modi adds the Mercedes-Maybach S650 armored vehicle to his convoy of the Range Rover Vogue and Toyota Land Cruiser. Modi had a bulletproof Mahindra Scorpio as Gujarat chief minister, then moved up to the BMW 7 Series High-Security Edition as PM

The prime minister has got new wheels!

Narendra Modi has added the Mercedes-Maybach S650 armoured vehicle to his convoy of the Range Rover Vogue and Toyota Land Cruiser.

Modi was spotted in the new Maybach 650 armoured car at Hyderabad House while welcoming President Putin of Russia. The vehicle was spotted again in the convoy of Modi recently.

The Mercedes-Maybach S650 Guard offers the highest level of armoured protection available on a car. According to reports, the vehicle can withstand bullets thanks to the upgraded windows and body shell and can take an assault from AK-47 rifles.

As per reported information, the car's windows are coated with polycarbonate and can withstand hardened steel core bullets. The car also boasts of an Explosive Resistant Vehicle (ERV) 2010 rating and the occupants of the vehicle are protected from a 15kg TNT explosion from a distance of only 2 metres.

The cabin also receives a separate air supply in case of a gas attack.

The car is fitted with a 6.0-litre twin-turbo V12 engine that develops 516 bhp and about 900 Nm of peak torque. The top speed is restricted to 160 kmph.

Another report stated that the fuel tank of the Mercedes-Maybach S650 Guard is coated with a special material that seals the holes automatically after a hit. It is made up of the same material that Boeing uses for its AH-64 Apache tank attack helicopters.

The car has a luxurious interior and offers all the comforts that the standard Maybach S-Class can provide.

As the car has been modified for the prime minister, the cost of the vehicle is unknown. However, Mercedes-Maybach launched the S600 Guard in India last year for Rs 10.5 crore and the S650 can cost more than Rs 12 crore.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has had a few cars over the years. As Gujarat chief minister, he had a
bulletproof Mahindra Scorpio. When he became prime minister in 2014, he moved up to the BMW 7 Series High-Security Edition. He then added the Land Rover Range Rover Vogue and the Toyota Land Cruiser.

samir sardana said...

No one can save Chaiwala from the death which he deserves

No Head of State has been killed in a cavalcade.JFK was killed in an open car with clear line of sight

So Y a Bullet Proof car for Chaiwala

It is time for Chaiwala to meet his good friend Parrikar

samir sardana said...

Like I said on December 25, 2021 at 9:25 AM

"Arunachal,Ladakh,Sikkim,Parts of Uttarakhand and Assam,will be a part of PRC"

PRC has almost renamed every street of Arunachal.What is left is Pin Codes and Chinese sign boards !

What are the Hindoos doing ? Drinking Gau Mutram !

The North East "INDIANS" have to see the future with the Hans - and breed a new race, instead of specimens like this

This is just 1 day old !

The baby goat looks like a cross,between Amit Shah and Chaiwala !

People say Y ?

It is Bestiality,which is normal and passe in Hindooism !

For Hindoos,Goat = Bestiality
For Chinese,Goat = MEAT !

The "INDIANS" have to see the future ! dindooohindoo

The purpose of life,as a human being,is to EVOLVE ! China is the future,for the "INDIANS" of North East India !

Riaz Haq said...

#India: #Women force change at Indian #iPhone plant, sick from bad food, crowded dorms without flush toilets and food sometimes crawling with worms were problems to be endured for the paycheck. #foodpoisoning #manufacturing #Modi #Chennai #TamilNadu

Riaz Haq said...

#Modi’s #India: #Income of the poorest 20% #Indians plunged 53% in 5 yrs while the richest 20% saw their annual household income grow 39%. #Inequality #BJP #Hindutva #Covid | India News,The Indian Express

In a trend unprecedented since economic liberalisation, the annual income of the poorest 20% of Indian households, constantly rising since 1995, plunged 53% in the pandemic year 2020-21 from their levels in 2015-16. In the same five-year period, the richest 20% saw their annual household income grow 39% reflecting the sharp contrast Covid’s economic impact has had on the bottom of the pyramid and the top.

This stark K-shaped recovery emerges in the latest round of ICE360 Survey 2021, conducted by People’s Research on India’s Consumer Economy (PRICE), a Mumbai- based think-tank.

The survey, between April and October 2021, covered 200,000 households in the first round and 42,000 households in the second round. It was spread over 120 towns and 800 villages across 100 districts.

While the pandemic brought economic activity to a standstill for at least two quarters in 2020-21 and resulted in a 7.3% contraction in GDP in 2020-21, the survey shows that the pandemic hit the urban poor most and eroded their household income.

Splitting the population across five categories based on income, the survey shows that while the poorest 20% (first quintile) witnessed the biggest erosion of 53%, the second lowest quintile (lower middle category), too, witnessed a decline in their household income of 32% in the same period. While the quantum of erosion reduced to 9% for those in the middle income category, the top two quintiles — upper middle (20%) and richest (20%)— saw their household income rise by 7% and 39% respectively.

The survey shows that the richest 20% of households have, on average, added more income per household and more pooled income as a group in the past five years than in any five-year period earlier since liberalisation. Exactly the opposite has happened for the poorest 20% of households — on average, they have never actually seen a decrease in household income since 1995. Yet, in 2021, in a huge knockout punch caused by Covid, they earned half as much as they did in 2016.

How disruptive this distress has been for those at the bottom of the pyramid is reinforced by the fact that in the previous 11-year period between 2005 and 2016, while the household income of the richest 20% grew by 34%, the poorest 20% saw their household income surge by 183% at an average annual growth rate of 9.9%.

Coming in the run-up to the Budget, the task for the Government is cut out.

“As the Finance Minister is finalising her budget proposals for 2022-23 to give shape to the roadmap for economic revival of the country,” said Rajesh Shukla, MD and CEO, PRICE, “we need a K-shaped policy too that addresses the two ends of the spectrum and a lot more thinking on how to build the bridge between the two.”

This couldn’t be more timely. Said PRICE founder and one of the authors of the survey Rama Bijapurkar. “Or else, we are back to a tale of two Indias, a narrative we thought we were rapidly getting rid of. The good news is that we have built a far more efficient welfare state for the disbursal of benefit be it DBT or vaccination for all.”

The survey showed that while the richest 20% accounted for 50.2% of the total household income in 1995, their share has jumped to 56.3% in 2021. On the other hand, the share of the poorest 20% dropped from 5.9% to 3.3% in the same period.

As for India Inc, it has been in a better position to weather the disruption. The pandemic accelerated further formalisation of the economy with large companies benefitting at the cost of smaller ones. The survey also shows that while job losses were quite evident among Small and Medium Enterprises in the casual labour segment, large companies did not witness much of that.

Riaz Haq said...

#Modi’s #India: #Income of the poorest 20% #Indians plunged 53% in 5 yrs while the richest 20% saw their annual household income grow 39%. #Inequality #BJP #Hindutva #Covid | India News,The Indian Express

Even among the poorest 20 per cent, those in urban areas got more impacted than their rural counterparts as the first wave of Covid and the lockdown led to stringent curbs on economic activity in urban areas. This resulted in job losses and loss of income for the casual labour, petty traders household workers.

Data shows that there has been a rise in the share of poor in cities. While 90 per cent of the poorest 20 per cent in 2016, lived in rural India, that number had dropped to 70 per cent in 2021. On the other hand the share of poorest 20 per cent in urban areas has gone up from around 10 per cent to 30 per cent now.

“The data reflects that the casual labour, petty trader, household workers among others in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities got hit most by the pandemic. During the survey we also noticed that while in rural areas people in lower middle income category (Q2) have moved to middle income category (Q3), in the urban areas the shift has been downwards from Q3 to Q2. In fact, the rise in poverty level of urban poor has pulled down the household income of the entire category down,” said Shukla.

“The elephant in the room is investment,” said Bijapurkar. “Inspiring confidence through long-term policy stability and improving ease of doing business should make the tide rise again and sweep small business and individuals up along with it. Most big companies are doing well and don’t need more help but we need to work the economy for the bottom half.”

Riaz Haq said...

How long does it take to earn the money to buy an Apple iPhone 12?

Based on minimum wage levels, a new report from estimates it would take 6,639 hours for a Venezuelan to earn enough for the prized smartphone and 3,254 hours for an Indian. Chinese people must work 680 hours to make enough money.

1642 Hours in Pakistan
1791 Hours in Indonesia
3254 Hours in India
2045 Hours in Egypt

Need-to-Know Research

Minimum Monthly Wage levels in selected countries:

Pakistan: $491

Nepal: $396

Vietnam: $388

China: $353

Afghanistan: $306

Sri Lanka: $247

India: $215

Solomon Islands: $213

Bangladesh: $48

Riaz Haq said...

A stark statistic: the income of 1/5th of India‘s population has plunged a staggering 53% in the last 5 years. While the wealth of top 100 Indians has soared to Rs 57 lakh crores.

4.6 crore Indians have slipped into extreme poverty.

What does such inequity say about India? And is the government doing enough to design a pathway out of it?

Provocative. Animated. Incensed. Economist RATHIN ROY — former member of PM’s economic advisory council, and managing director of ODI — lays bare the faultlines in the economy, the Budget, and the principles & priorities driving India’s economic thinking.

“For the first time in India’s independent history, there is no professional mid or long term economic plan,” says he.

So what would he do if he was in the driving seat?


#India’s #economic distress threatens #BJP’s dominance in state elections. India suffered a 7.3% economic contraction in the first year of the #pandemic, with tens of millions of people falling out of the #middleclass and into #poverty. | Financial Times

Riaz Haq said...

Oxfam report: In 2021, income of 84% households fell, but number of billionaires grew

The income of 84 per cent of households in the country declined in 2021, but at the same time the number of Indian billionaires grew from 102 to 142, an Oxfam report has said, pointing to a stark income divide worsened by the Covid pandemic.

The Oxfam report, “Inequality Kills’’, released on Sunday ahead of the World Economic Forum’s Davos Agenda, also found that as Covid continued to ravage India, the country’s healthcare budget saw a 10% decline from RE (revised estimates) of 2020-21. There was a 6% cut in allocation for education, the Oxfam report says, while the budgetary allocation for social security schemes declined from 1.5% of the total Union budget to 0.6%.

The India supplement of the global report also says that in 2021, the collective wealth of India’s 100 richest people hit a record high of Rs 57.3 lakh crore (USD 775 billion). In the same year, the share of the bottom 50 per cent of the population in national wealth was a mere 6 per cent.
During the pandemic (since March 2020, through to November 30, 2021), the report says, the wealth of Indian billionaires increased from Rs 23.14 lakh crore (USD 313 billion) to Rs 53.16 lakh crore (USD 719 billion). More than 4.6 crore Indians, meanwhile, are estimated to have fallen into extreme poverty in 2020, nearly half of the global new poor according to the United Nations.

Riaz Haq said...

Chitra Ramkrishna, #India's $4 trillion #StockMarket #NSE CEO, let a faceless #Hindu conman ‘yogi’ make all key decisions. For all this, SEBI’s punishment to Ramkrishna is paltry. She has now been barred from capital markets for three years. #Modi #BJP

Ramkrishna referred to the unknown yogi as “Sironmani” [the exalted one] and shared with him information such as NSE’s five year projections, financial data, dividend ratio, business plans, agenda of board meeting, and even consulted him on employee performance appraisals.

Ramkrishna was ousted from NSE in 2016 for her role in the co-location and algo trading scam and abuse of power in the appointment of Subramanian. The probe found that Ramkrishna ran NSE with impunity. No one from the senior management, board, or the promoters — which include big government institutions and banks — ever objected to her ways. Instead, Ramkrishna was given ₹44 crore as pending dues and salary when she left NSE.

SEBI’s probe revealed that Ramkrishna communicated with the yogi, whom she had never met, over email, for almost 20 years and he guided her to appoint Subramanian as the second in command at NSE. “Their spiritual powers do not require them to have any such physical coordinates and would manifest at will,” Ramkrishna told SEBI. The contents of the email were not denied by her.

On January 18, 2013, Subramanian was offered the role of Chief Strategic Advisor at NSE for an annual compensation of ₹1.68 crore against his last drawn salary (as per his claim) of ₹15 lakh at Balmer Lawrie. In March 2014, Ramkrishna approved a 20 per cent increment to Subramanian and his salary was revised to ₹2.01 crore. Five weeks thereafter, Subramanian’s salary was again revised upwards by 15 per cent to ₹2.31 crore as Ramkrishna dubbed his performance to be A+ (exceptional). By 2015, his cost-to-company had zoomed to ₹5 crore, he was given a cabin next to Ramkrishna and granted first-class international air travel. All this was in accordance with the yogi’s instructions.

An email from the unknown yogi even carried the diktat that Subramanian be exempt from the contractual 5-day work week and instead be asked to come only for three days and allowed to work the rest of the time at will.

Another email on September 5, 2015, from the yogi told Ramkrishna, “SOM, if I had the opportunity to be a person on Earth then Kanchan is the perfect fit. Ashirvadhams.” On December 30, 2015, Ramkrishna told the Yogi in her reply, “SIRONMANI, struggle is I have always seen THEE through G, and challenged myself to on my own realise the difference.” ‘SOM’ refers to Ramkrishna, and ‘Kanchan’ and ‘G’ refer to Subramanian, the SEBI probe revealed.

These findings were confirmed by Dinesh Kanabar, the then Chairman of NSE nomination and remuneration committee. Subramanian had all the powers of the MD and CEO, and was flying first class, but remained a consultant on paper. SEBI had observed that there was a glaring conspiracy of a money making scheme involving NSE’s boss with the unknown person.

An email dated February 18, 2015, from Ramkrishna to the unknown yogi, reads, “The role and designation of Group Chief Coordination Officer is fine and we could take that forward. I have a small submission, can we make this as Group President and Chief Coordination Officer? And over a time frame as you direct we can move the entire operations of the exchange under G and redesignate him as Chief Operating Officer? Seek Your guidance on the path forward on this Swami If this meets with your Highness’ approval, then parallelly could we coin JR (Ravi) as Group President Finance and stakeholder relations and Corporate General Counsel?”

Riaz Haq said...

#India's Size Illusion by Arvind Subramanian. #Indian policymakers should avoid succumbing to the illusion of size, and reconcile themselves with their country's current status as a middling power. #Modi #BJP #Hindutva #Russia #Ukraine #China @ProSyn

True, India’s economy is undeniably large. According to the International Monetary Fund, India is the world’s third-largest economy in purchasing-power-parity terms, with a GDP of $10 trillion, behind China ($27 trillion) and the United States ($23 trillion). At market exchange rates, its GDP of $3 trillion makes it the sixth-largest economy, behind the US, China, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

But India’s economic size has not translated into commensurate military strength. Part of the problem is simple geography. Bismarck supposedly said that the US is bordered on two sides by weak neighbors and on two sides by fish. India, however, does not enjoy such splendid isolation. Ever since independence, it has been confronted on its Western frontier by Pakistan, a highly armed, chronically hostile, and often military-ruled neighbor.

More recently, India’s northern neighbor, China, also has become aggressive, repudiating the territorial status quo, occupying contested land in the Himalayas, reclaiming territory in the east, and building up a large military presence along India’s borders. So, India may have fish for neighbors along its long peninsular coast, but on land it faces major security challenges on two fronts.


Then there is the question of market size. As Pennsylvania State University’s Shoumitro Chatterjee and one of us (Subramanian) have shown, India’s middle-class market for consumption is much smaller than the $3 trillion headline GDP number suggests, because many people have limited purchasing power while a smaller number of well-off people tend to save a lot. In fact, the effective size of India’s consumer market is less than $1 trillion, far smaller than China’s and even smaller relative to the potential world export market of nearly $30 trillion.

India needs to accept, and act in line with, its current status as a middling power. Over time, rapid and sustained economic growth could make India the major power it aspires to be. Until then, it must look past the illusion of size and reconcile itself with strategic realities.

Riaz Haq said...

#UkraineWar has exposed #inequity in #India's #medical school admissions. #Indian medical entrance exam favors students from elite backgrounds (upper caste) who can afford specialized coaching or those who can attend expensive private colleges ($100,000)

Every year, roughly 1.5 million students take the National Eligibility cum Entrance Test, or NEET, to compete for some 90,000 seats in medical schools across India. About half of those are at private universities where tuition and other fees easily exceed $100,000. As a result, tens of thousands of Indian students opt to study medicine in countries like China, Russia, and Ukraine, where education is cheaper.

Opposition to NEET has been brewing since the government introduced the exam in 2013. Critics say that NEET favors students from elite backgrounds who can afford specialized coaching – echoing arguments against the SAT and ACT in the United States – or who can attend expensive private colleges where the bar for admission is lower. “The system is not fair; there cannot be any doubt on that,” says Dr. Anand Krishnan, a professor of community medicine at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences in New Delhi. “Medical profession is not just pure knowledge. You have to be more humane. There are a lot of other characteristics which are important to look for.”

When Mr. Gahlot was in 11th grade, he left his hometown of Siryawali in northwest Uttar Pradesh to go to Kota, Rajasthan, the academic coaching capital of India. There, he says, he followed a grueling regimen of studying six to seven hours a day, but fell about 50 points short of what was required to get into a government-run college.

“It was totally depressing. I would think I’m not smart enough to be a doctor, I can’t do this,” he says. Several of his friends in similar situations chose different career paths. But Mr. Gahlot had made up his mind to become a doctor in eighth grade, and turned to his last resort – going abroad. He says he was too ashamed to tell his peers he was leaving India, because many see foreign medical students as “quitters” who weren’t able to crack NEET.

The fierce competition for Indian medical school seats cost another student his life. Naveen Gyanagoudar had gone outside to buy food when he was killed by Russian shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Speaking to local reporters, his distraught father lamented that despite scoring 97% on high school exams, his son couldn’t get admission to a medical school in his own country.

The double blow of high competition and high cost means India’s new generation of doctors lacks diversity. “They are predominantly urban-centric kids, from well-entrenched, reasonably well-off middle-class families,” says Dr. Sita Naik, a former member of the Medical Council of India, which used to oversee medical education. Dr. Naik says these graduates are unlikely to move to rural areas, where the demand for doctors is the greatest. Rural India is home to two-thirds of the country’s population but only 20% of its doctors, according to a 2016 report.

Riaz Haq said...

Why some Indians die younger than others

People belonging to the country's most marginalised social groups - adivasis or indigenous people, Dalits (formerly known as untouchables) and Muslims - are more likely to die at younger ages than higher-caste Hindus, according to one paper by Sangita Vyas, Payal Hathi and Aashish Gupta.

They examined official health survey data of more than 20 million people from nine Indian states accounting for about half of India's population of 1.4 billion.


Here's the average lifespan of disadvantaged men: 60 years for adivasis, 61.3 for Dalits, and 63.8 for Muslims. An average higher-caste Hindu man is expected to live for 64.9 years.

Such enduring gaps were comparable in terms of years to the gaps in life expectancies between black and white Americans in the US, researchers say. Since life expectancy in India is less than four-fifths the level in the US, the outcomes in India are more substantial in percentage terms.

To be sure, buoyed by advances in medicine, hygiene and public health, India has made massive gains in life expectancy: half a century ago, the average Indian would beat the odds by surviving into his or her 50s. Now they're expected to live almost 20 years longer.

Dalit women are among the most oppressed in the world
The bad news is that although life expectancy for all social groups has increased, disparities have not reduced, according to a related study by Aashish Gupta and Nikkil Sudharsanan.

In some cases, absolute disparities have increased: the life expectancy gap between Dalit men and upper-caste Hindu men, for example, had actually increased between the late 1990s and mid-2010s. And although Muslims had a modest life expectancy disadvantage compared to high castes in 1997-2000, this gap has grown substantially over the past 20 years.

India is home to some of the largest populations of marginalised social groups in the world. The 120 million adivasis - an "invisible and marginal minority", in the words of a historian - live in considerable poverty in some of the remotest parts. Despite political and social empowerment, the 230 million Dalits continue to face discrimination. And an overwhelming majority of 200 million Muslims, the third largest number of any country, continue to languish at the bottom of the social ladder and often become targets of sectarian violence.

What explains these gaps in life expectancy in different groups?

India is neither a melting pot nor a salad bowl
Here is where it gets interesting.

Researchers find that differences in where people live, their wealth and exposure to environment account for less than half of these gaps. For example, the study found that adivasis and Dalits live shorter than higher-caste Hindus across wealth categories.

To find more precise answers on how discrimination influences mortality, India needs to step up research. There is some evidence which tells us why, for example, Muslims live longer than the adivasis and Dalits. They include lower exposure to open defecation among children, lower rates of cervical cancers among women, lower consumption of alcohol and lower incidence of suicide.

Riaz Haq said...

Earning Rs 25,000 monthly puts one in India's top 10%: Inequality report
Salaried employees who file income taxes are relatively better off, says study that recommends an urban employment scheme.

An Indian making Rs 3 lakh a year would be placed in the top 10 per cent of the country’s wage earners. The data is part of The State of Inequality in India report prepared by the India arm of a global competitiveness initiative, the Institute for Competitiveness.

Bibek Debroy, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister released it on Wednesday. The report recommended a scheme for the urban jobless and universal basic income as means to reduce inequality. The nature of one's work may make a difference to income shows a closer look at the numbers in ...


If You Earn Rs 25,000 Per Month, You're Among India's Top 10% Income Earners

The State of Inequality in India report prepared by the India arm of a global competitiveness initiative, the Institute for Competitiveness, sheds light on the state of gross inequality in the country. Ninety per cent of Indians do not earn even Rs 25,000 per month.

This highlights the failure of the trickle-down approach to economic growth.

Bibek Debroy, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister released it on Wednesday.

The report gives a comprehensive overview of the state of inequality in the country by looking at various indicators like income profile, labour market dynamics, health, education, and household amenities.

The report mooted an urban jobs scheme and universal basic income as a means to reduce inequality in the country.

Gaping income disparity
Extrapolation of the income data from Periodic Labour Force Survey 2019-20 has shown that a monthly salary of Rs 25,000 is already amongst the top 10% of total incomes earned, pointing towards some levels of income disparity, the report said.

It further highlighted that the average monthly salary of regular salaried, wage earners in July-September 2019 amounted to Rs 13,912 for rural males and Rs 19,194 for urban males. Employed females in rural parts earned Rs 12,090 in the same period while females in urban India earned an average Rs 15,031.

India’s income profile is outlined by a growing disparity between those who lie on the top end of the earning pyramid and those on the bottom, highlighting the failure of the trickle-down approach to economic growth.

Top 1% earn nearly thrice as much as the bottom 10%
According to the Annual Report of the PLFS 2019- 20, the annual cumulative wages came to be around Rs 18,69,91,00,000, out of which the top 1 per cent earned nearly Rs 1,27,48,00,000, and the bottom 10 per cent accounted for Rs 32,10,00,000 indicating that the top 1 per cent earns almost thrice as much as the bottom 10 per cent.

Meanwhile, the bottom 50% of the pyramid held approximately 22% of the total income earned across the three-time periods. The growth rate of the bottom 50% has been at 3.9% from 2017-18 to 2019-20, while the top 10% has grown by 8.1%.

“This highlights the disparity between the income groups and the disproportionate rate of growth among these tiers. Additionally, the top 1% grew by almost 15% between 2017- 18 to 2019-20, whereas the bottom 10% registered a close to 1% fall,” the report highlighted.

In terms of workforce share, nearly 15 per cent of the entire workforce earns less than Rs 50,000 (less than Rs 5,000 a month), in both years, exacerbating the experiences of poverty and economic inequality.

The PLFS also reported no and negative income, indicating that several households have no disposable income or their debts exceed their incomes.

Riaz Haq said...

What’s the Average Salary in Pakistan in 2022?

The average salary in Pakistan is 81,800 PKR (Pakistani Rupee) per month, or around USD 498 according to the exchange rates in August 2021.

The Pakistan average is significantly lower than the US average (USD 7,900) but comparable to India (USD 430), Ukraine (USD 858), and the Philippines (USD 884). It’s one of the many reasons why Pakistan is a viable alternative to these popular outsourcing destinations.

However, you’ll need a more comprehensive analysis to understand the total expenditure on a Pakistani employee.

In this article, we’ll share vital figures and comparisons related to the average salary in Pakistan. We’ll also explore the country’s payroll rules and top reasons to outsource there.

Average Salary in Pakistan: Key Figures
The average salary figure for a country is the sum of the salaries of the working population divided by the total number of employees. It may also include benefits such as housing, transport allowance, insurance, etc., on top of the employee’s basic salary.

The average salary is usually a good indicator of the typical income of a working citizen in the country.

Here are some key salary figures for Pakistan according to Salary Explorer, a salary comparison website:

The average remuneration in Pakistan may vary between 20,700 PKR per month (average minimum salary) and 365,000 PKR per month (maximum average). Please remember that this is an average salary range, and the actual maximum salary may be higher.

The median salary in Pakistan is 76,900 PKR per month.

If we sort the employee salaries in Pakistan in ascending or descending order, the median represents the central point in the distribution. In other words, half the Pakistani employees earn more than 76,900 PKR per month, while the other half earn less.

These national average salary figures may give you a general estimate and help compare expenditure on employee salaries among different countries. 

But it won’t help you determine the exact remuneration for each employee in your company. 

For that, you’ll need to consider other factors like

The type of industry.
Years of experience and qualification of the employee.
The kind of work: entry level, professional, etc.
The mode of work: full-time, part-time, remote, etc.
The region where you are operating.
The cost of living in the country.
So let’s take a more comprehensive look at the salary information in Pakistan.

A. Average Salary by Industry
The average salary in a country may vary significantly with the type of industry. 

Pakistan is known for its cotton, textile, and agriculture exports, and these industries have a significant share in the country’s GDP. Due to this reason, the manufacturing sector usually employs a large portion of the Pakistani workforce. 

Here’s an industry-wise breakdown of the average salaries in Pakistan:

Industry Average Monthly Salary
Energy 73,600 PKR
Information Technology 82,100 PKR
Healthcare 122,000 PKR
Real Estate 92,600 PKR
Media / Broadcasting  75,200 PKR
Telecommunication  72,100 PKR

B. Average Salary by Region
While the capital city of Islamabad is the administrative center of the country, Karachi and Lahore are the major commercial hubs in Pakistan. 

The average employee salary in the country depends on which city you’re operating in.

Here’s the salary report for major Pakistani cities:

City Average Monthly Salary
Karachi 88,300 PKR
Lahore 86,800 PKR
Islamabad 76,400 PKR
Faisalabad 85,400 PKR

C. Salary Variations by Education
As a general rule of thumb, a Pakistani employee with higher educational degrees gets a higher pay scale than their peers with a lesser degree for the same type of work. 

But how does the pay scale change with the education level?

Riaz Haq said...

Multiple faces of #inequality in #India. Known for its #caste system, India is often thought of as one of the world's most unequal countries. Top 10% take 57% of national income—higher than 50% during British Raj. Bottom half get only 13% via @physorg_com

Known for its caste system, India is often thought of as one of the world's most unequal countries. The 2022 World Inequality Report (WIR), headed by leading economist Thomas Piketty and his protégé, Lucas Chancel, did nothing to improve this reputation. Their research showed that the gap between the rich and the poor in India is at a historical high, with the top 10% holding 57% of national income—more than the average of 50% under British colonial rule (1858–1947). In contrast, the bottom half accrued only 13% of national revenue. A February report by Oxfam noted 2021 alone saw 84% of households suffer a loss of income while the number of Indian billionaires grew from 102 to 142.

Both reports highlight not only the problem of revenue inequality but also of opportunity. While there may be disagreement between left and right on the ethics of equality, there is a consensus that everyone should be given the chance to succeed and the principle of fairness—and not factors such as birth, region, race, gender, ethnicity or family backgrounds—ought to lay the foundations of a level playing field for all.

Drawing from the latest pre-pandemic database from the Periodic Labor Force Survey of 2018–19, our research confirms this is far from the case in India. On the one hand, the country has had a consistently high GDP growth rate of more than 7% for nearly two decades, the exception being the period around the 2008 financial crisis. On the other hand, this income has failed to trickle down to India's marginalized communities, with preliminary results pointing to a higher level of inequality of opportunity in the country than in Brazil or Guatemala.

Precarity as well as a large shadow economy also plague the country's labor market. Even before the pandemic, only 30% to 40% of regular salaried adult Indian earners had job contracts or social securities such as national pension schemes, provident fund or health insurance. For self-employed workers, the situation is even more critical, even though these constituted nearly 60% of the Indian labor force in 2019.

Riaz Haq said...

Multiple faces of #inequality in #India. Known for its #caste system, India is often thought of as one of the world's most unequal countries. Top 10% take 57% of national income—higher than 50% during British Raj. Bottom half get only 13% via @physorg_com

Castes, gender and background still determine life chances

Our research indicated that at least 30% of earning inequality is still determined by caste, gender and family backgrounds. The seriousness of this figure becomes clear when it's compared with rates of the world's most egalitarian countries, such as Finland and Norway, where the respective estimates are below 10% for a similar set of social and family attributes.

The caste system is a distinctive feature of Indian inequality. Emerging around 1500 BC, the hereditary social classification draws its origins from occupational hierarchy. Ancient Indian society was thought to be divided in four Varnas or castes: Brahmins (the priests), Khatriyas (the soldiers), Vaishyas (the traders) and Shudras (the servants), in order of hierarchy. Apart from the above four, there were the "untouchables" or Dalits (the oppressed), as they are called now, who were prohibited to come into contact with any of the upper castes. These groups were further subdivided in thousands of sub-castes or Jatis, with complicated internal hierarchy, eventually merged into fewer manageable categories under the British colonization period.

The Indian constitution secures the rights of the Scheduled Castes (SC), Scheduled Tribes (ST) and Other Backward Class (OBC) through a caste-based reservation quota, by virtue of which a certain portion of higher-education admissions, public sector jobs, political or legislative representations, are reserved for them. Despite this, there is a notable earning inequality between these social categories and the rest of the population, who consists of no more than 30% to 35% of Indian population. Adopting a data-driven approach we find that, on average, SC, ST and OBC still earn less than the rest.

While unique, the caste system is not the only source of unfairness. Indeed, it accounts for less than 7% of inequality of opportunity, something that's in itself laudable. We will need to add criteria such as gender and family background differences to explain 30% of inequality.

In a country where femicides and rapes regularly make headlines, it comes as no surprise that women from marginalized social groups are often subject to a "double disadvantage." For some states such as Rajasthan (in the country's northwest), Andhra Pradesh (south), Maharashtra (center), we find even upper-caste women enjoy fewer educational opportunities than men from the marginalized SC/ST communities. Even among the graduates, while the national average employment rate for males is 70%, it is below 30% for the females.

A temporary byproduct of rising growth?

Rising inequality could be dismissed as a temporary byproduct of rapid growth on the grounds of Simon Kuznets' famous hypothesis, according to which inequality rises with rapid growth before eventually subsiding. However, there is no guarantee of this, least of all because widening gap between rich and poor is not only limited to fast-growing countries such as India. Indeed, a 2019 study found that the growth-inequality relationship often reflects inequality of opportunity and prospects of growth are relatively dim for economies with a bumpy distribution of opportunities.

Riaz Haq said...

Multiple faces of #inequality in #India. Known for its #caste system, India is often thought of as one of the world's most unequal countries. Top 10% take 57% of national income—higher than 50% during British Raj. Bottom half get only 13% via @physorg_com

Despite sporadic evidence of converging caste or gender gaps, our research shows an intricate web of social hierarchy has been cast over every aspect of life in India. It is true that some deprived castes may withdraw from school early to explore traditional jobs available to their caste-based networks—thereby limiting their opportunities. However, are they responsible for such choices or it is the precariousness of the Indian economy that pushes them down such routes? There is no straightforward answer to these questions, even if some of the "bad choices" that individuals make can result more from pressure than choice.

Given the complicated intertwining of various forms of hierarchy in India, broad policies targeting inequality may have less success than anticipated. Dozens of factors other than caste, gender or family background feed into inequality, including home sanitation, school facilities, domestic violence, access to basic infrastructure such as electricity, water or healthcare, crime rates, political stability of the locality, environmental risks and many more.

Better data would allow researchers studying India to capture the contours of its society and also help gauge the effectiveness of policies intended to expand opportunities for the neediest.

Riaz Haq said...

“The poverty in the country is standing like a demon in front of us. It is important that we slay this demon. That 20 crore people are still below poverty line is a figure that should make us very sad. As many as 23 crore people have less than Rs 375 income per day. There are four crore unemployed people in the country. The labour force survey says we have an unemployment rate of 7.6 per cent,” said Dattatreya Hosabale. Also Read - 23 Crore Indians Pushed Below Poverty Line Amid COVID-19 Pandemic, Says Study

He also spoke about the rising levels of economic inequality that the country is witnessing today. Acknowledging that India is among the top six economies of the world, he said top 1 per cent holds 1/5th (20 per cent) of the nation’s income. He added that 50 per cent of the country’s population has only 13 per cent of the country’s income. Hosabale went on to quote United Nations’ observations on the poverty and development in India. Also Read - Today Will be Your Last Working Day With Uber: Ride-hailing Firm Lays Off Nearly 3,700 Employees Via Zoom

“A large part of the country still does not have access to clean water and nutritious food. Civil strife and the poor level of education are also a reason for poverty. That is why a New Education Policy has been ushered in. Even climate change is a reason for poverty. And at places the inefficiency of the government is a reason for poverty.”

In his speech, Hosabale also stressed on the importance of creating an entrepreneurship-friendly environment apart from the need to carry skill-training from the urban to rural India.

“During Covid, we learnt that there is a possibility of generating jobs at the rural level according to local needs and using local talent. That is why the Swavalambi Bharat Abhiyan was launched. We don’t just need all-India level schemes, but also local schemes. It can be done in the field of agriculture, skill development, marketing etc. We can revive cottage industry. Similarly, in the field of medicine, a lot of Ayurvedic medicines can be manufactured at the local level. We need to find people interested in self-employment and entrepreneurship,” Hosabale said.

Riaz Haq said...

The Squeeze on India’s Spenders Is Yet to Lift
Analysis by Andy Mukherjee | Bloomberg

Manufacturing of wants is hard anywhere for marketers, but the challenge is bigger when the bottom half of the population takes home only 13% of national income. While India’s rapid economic growth since the 1990s has undoubtedly expanded the spending capacity of its 1.4 billion people, acute and rising inequality — among the worst in the world — makes for a notoriously budget-conscious median consumer. Companies can take nothing for granted: For Unilever’s local Indian unit, a late winter crimped sales of skin-care products last quarter.

Still, the maker of Dove body wash and Surf detergent managed to eke out an overall 5% increase in sales volume from a year earlier, lifting net income to 25.1 billion rupees ($309 million), slightly better than expected. That was achieved by price cuts — passing along the benefit of lower palm-oil costs to soap buyers — and a step up in promotion and advertising. Still, not all players have the market leader’s financial chops. Investors who look closely at Hindustan Unilever Ltd.’s earnings for a pulse on India’s consumer demand will note with dismay the slide in industry-wide volumes for cleaning liquids, personal care items and food, the categories in which the firm competes.

This isn’t new. Consumer demand in India has been moderating since August 2021. Village households, many of which had to liquidate their gold holdings and other assets to treat Covid-19 patients during that summer’s lethal delta outbreak, were not in a mood to spend even after the surge in deaths and hospitalization ebbed.

Then, as major economies began to open up and crude oil and other commodities began to get pricier, firms like Unilever responded to the squeeze by reducing how much they put in a pack. Their idea was to hold on to psychologically crucial “magic price points” — such as five or 10 rupees — in the hope that customers will replenish more often. But when inflation accelerated after the start of the war in Ukraine, there was no option except to shatter the illusion of affordability by raising prices. Volumes flat-lined in the March quarter.

“The worst of inflation is behind us,” Sanjiv Mehta, the chief executive officer, said in a statement after last week’s earnings report. That seems to be the case indeed. India’s aggregate price index rose a slower-than-expected 5.7% in December, the third straight month of cooling. That’s why perhaps instead of pushing four 100-gram bars of Lux soap for 140 rupees, Unilever is charging 156 rupees for five, according to the Business Standard. In offering an 11% price cut by bulking up pack sizes, the company is betting that most households’ budget can now accommodate an extra outlay of 16 rupees.

It’s a reasonable gamble. A bumper wheat harvest is expected this spring. Rural India, which employs two out of three workers, found jobs for a disproportionately larger share of new entrants to the labor force in November and December, according to Mahesh Vyas of CMIE, a private firm that fills in for reliable official jobs data. “Most of the additional employment is happening in rural India and not in the towns,” he says.

And that may well put the spotlight next year on faltering spending in cities. The tech industry is wobbling globally. In India, too, startups are firing employees in large numbers; some former darlings of venture capital, such as online test-prep and education firms, are becoming irrelevant now that Covid-19 restrictions on physical classes have ended.

Meanwhile, India’s software-exports industry — a large employer in metropolises — has become wary of hiring because of slowing global growth. “The pain in urban consumption seems to be showing up,” JM Financial analysts Richard Liu and others wrote last week after Asian Paints Ltd.’s earnings.

Riaz Haq said...

"India is Broken" writes Princeton Economist Ashoka Modi. Says #Indians, mostly illiterate and poor, hunger for freedom and prosperity but their politicians from #Nehru to #Modi have “betrayed the economic aspirations” of millions. #BJP via @WSJBooks

Ashoka Mody, who was for many years a senior economist at the International Monetary Fund, is the sort of quietly efficient global technocrat who retires to a professorship at a prestigious school—in his case, Princeton. Yet he’s different from his faceless ilk of briefcase-bearers in one astonishing way: 13 years ago, an attempt was made on his life. The alleged assailant, thought to have been passed over for a job at the IMF by Mr. Mody, shot him in the jaw outside his house in Maryland.

He recovered with remarkable verve, his intellectual drive intact. Yet a mood of gloom and pessimism is unmistakable in “India Is Broken.” Today, 75 years after independence from Britain, Mr. Mody believes that India’s democracy and economy are in a state of profound malfunction. The book’s tale, he writes, “is one of continuous erosion of social norms and decay of political accountability.” You might add that it is also a tale of an audacious political experiment on the brink of failure.

India started its post-independence journey, says Mr. Mody, as “an improbable democracy” whose citizens, mostly illiterate and poor, hungered for freedom and prosperity. Generations of Indian politicians—from Jawaharlal Nehru, the first prime minister, to Narendra Modi, the present one—have “betrayed the economic aspirations” of millions. India’s democracy no longer protects fundamental rights and freedoms in a nation over which “a blanket of violence” has fallen. A belief in “equality, tolerance and shared progress” has disappeared. And the country’s collapse isn’t just political and economic; it’s also moral and spiritual.


A notable weakness in Mr. Mody’s analysis is his denial that the economic policies of Nehru and his successors were socialist. He writes of Nehru’s “alleged socialist legacy” and adds that it is a “mistake to identify central planning or big government as socialism.” Socialism, he insists, “means the creation of equal opportunity for all,” which India’s policy makers weren’t doing. Ergo, India wasn’t socialist.

If these protestations are almost laughable, Mr. Mody’s solution also invites some derision. Hope for India, he says, lies in making it a “true democracy.” And how can that be done? “We must move to an equilibrium in which everyone expects others to be honest.” This “honest equilibrium,” he says, will promote enough trust for Indians to work together “in the long-haul tasks of creating public goods and advancing sustainable development” and awakening “civic consciousness.” Mr. Mody, it is clear, has a dream. It is naïve, and it is corny. India, alas, will continue to be “broken” for many years to come.

Riaz Haq said...

Why Prof. Ashoka Mody Believes India is Broken | Princeton International

I have long felt that that upbeat story is completely divorced from the lived reality of the vast majority of Indians. I wanted to write a book about that lived reality, about jobs, education, healthcare, the cities Indians live in, the justice system they encounter, the air they breathe, the water they drink. And when you look at India through that lens of that reality, the progress is halting at best and far removed from the aspirations of people and what might have been. India is broken in the sense that for hundreds of millions of Indians, jobs are hard to get, and education and health care are poor. The justice system is coercive and brutal. The air quality remains extraordinarily poor. The rivers are dying. And it's not clear that things are going to get better. Underlying that brokenness, social norms and public accountability have eroded to a point where India seems to be in a catch-22: Unaccountable politicians do not impose accountability on themselves; therefore, no one has an incentive to impose accountability for policy priorities that might benefit large numbers of people. The elite are happy in their gated first-world communities. They shrug their shoulders and say, “What exactly is the problem?”


Prof Ashoka Mody interviewed by Barkha Dutt