Friday, February 22, 2019

Indian Analyst Bharat Karnad to Modi: Use TTP Terrorists to Attack Pakistan

With the home-grown resistance of a new generation of Kashmiris against India's brutal military occupation turning into a full-blown insurgency, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's right-wing Hindu Nationalist government is trying desperately to divert attention from its human rights abuses by blaming Pakistan for Pulwama attack. Mr. Modi and his ministers are making war threats to "punish" Pakistan for Pulwama attack carried out by a local Kashmiri young man using explosives obtained locally. How will Mr. Modi "punish" Pakistan? Will India launch a full-frontal attack? Or do another "surgical strike" that Pakistan can deny? Or opt for covert warfare using its terrorist proxies?

Bharat Karnad
In a recently published Bloomberg Quint Op Ed on Pulwama attack in Indian Occupied Kashmir, a top Indian analyst Bharat Karnad has said that "it (TTP) is an asset for India to support and grow with moral and materiel support, and to develop". "Indeed, TTP’s fighting qualities are sufficiently developed and effective to simultaneously fight the Pakistan army in Pakistan and the U.S.-led NATO forces in Afghanistan", Karnad adds.

During former US Defense Secretary James Mattis' visit to New Delhi in 2017, Bharat Karnad had also acknowledged TTP-RAW link in a Hindustan Times Op Ed in the following words:

"Mattis’ request that India moderate its support for TTP will put Delhi in a fix because TTP is useful as an Indian counterpart of the Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Toiba, and Jaish-e-Mohammad deployed by the Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in Jammu and Kashmir. Severing relations with TTP will mean India surrendering an active card in Pakistan and a role in Afghanistan as TTP additionally provides access to certain Afghan Taliban factions. This, together with the Abdul Ghani regime’s desire for India’s presence and the tested friendship with Abdul Rashid Dostum and his Tajik-dominated ‘Northern Alliance’, ensures that no solution for peace in Afghanistan can be cobbled together without India’s help."

Bharat Karnad is a Research Professor in National Security Studies at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi. But Bharat Karnad is not alone in advocating the use of India's terrorist proxies against Pakistan. Since 2013, India's current National Security Advisor Ajit Doval has been talking about "Pakistan's vulnerabilities" to terrorism and India's ability to take advantage of it. Here are excerpts of his speech at Sastra University:

"How do you tackle Pakistan?.....We start working on Pakistan's vulnerabilities-- economic, internal security, political, isolating them internationally, it can be anything..... it can be defeating Pakistan's policies in Afghanistan...... You stop the terrorists by denying them weapons, funds and manpower. Deny them funds by countering with one-and-a-half times more funding. If they have 1200 crores give them 1800 crores and they are on our side...who are the Taliban fighting for? It's because they haven't got jobs or someone has misled them. The Taliban are mercenaries. So go for more of the covert thing (against Pakistan)..." Ajit Doval, India's National Security Advisor

Based on recent comments from Indian analysts and past pronouncements of senior India officials like Ajit Doval, I expect India to intensify its proxy war of terror against Pakistan.


Here's a video of Ajit Doval explaining his "Doval Doctrine":

https://youtu.be/eYRuk8H5M9E




Related Links:

Haq's Musings

700,000 Indian Soldiers vs 10 Million Kashmiris

Why is India Sponsoring Terror in Pakistan?

Can Modi Isolate Pakistan?

MQM-RAW Link

India's Pakistan Obsession

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

RK Yadav's Mission RAW

Planted Stories in Indian Media

Doval Doctrine

India's Israel Envy

6 comments:

Riaz Haq said...

Ex #Indian Official's advice to #Modi:"Sub-conventional war with #Pakistan is the only option.The recent events, post-#Pulwamaattack, have amply demonstrated the limited utility of launching a conventional war with Pakistan." #BalakotAirStrike #Kashmir https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/et-commentary/sub-conventional-war-with-pakistan-is-the-only-option/

Covert operations by an intelligence agency are unlike the acts of terror groups, i.e., acts of mindless violence meant to terrorise the peopleand render the governments helpless against such asymmetrical acts of warfare. They are designed to create and promote disaffection against the governments and generally play up the existing fault lines and have long term devastating effects.

First and foremost, we should revive our support to the groups in Baluchistan fighting for their independence. Secondly, we should extendsupport to the Shia minority groups in Gilgit- Baltistan that have been ruthlessly suppressed by the Pakistan Army for the last 4 decades. Significantly Prime Minister Modi made a dramatic reference to their long-standing struggles in his speech from the ramparts of the Red Fort on 15th August 2016 and much hope was raised in both quarters. That however proved to be illusory as there was no follow up action.

Thirdly, we should support other disaffected groups such as the Mohajirs in Sindh, the Saraikinationalist movement in Punjab, and the non-Taliban Pakthuns in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that have suffered untold misery in the hands of the majoritarian Punjabi army and the ISI who haveruthlessly murdered or caused disappearances of its leaders.

It is noteworthy that we don’t even have to waste time in creating well -trained and highly motivated terror groups or ‘fidayeens’. They are all there in Pakistan and in plenty. A cursory count indicates that there are over 65 terrorist organizations in Pakistan that have been banned from August 2001 to mid -2017 and are in diverse states of disarray and at least over 50 must be totally starved for funds. All we need is to pick up a handful of them, province wise and start funding. They will certainly work for anyone if the money is right and if channeled through the right sources, say a Saudi billionaire. Tehrik e- Taliban comes right on top of the list because of its excellent track record in targeting Pakistan’s military and air-force installations and security agencies including the ISI.

And surely, this entire effort will cost less than one Rafale aircraft and the damage it will do, could equal the efforts of a squadron.

Cyber operations

The most effective low–cost, high- impact tool of modern warfare is offensive cyber warfare and this is one area that needs immediate and utmost attention. The fact that a handful of computers in the hands of highly skilled hackers could cause untold havoc to the critical infrastructure of the target country is, by now well understood by our policy makers. Unfortunately, the existing set-up the NTRO created for this task is woefully inadequate for the challenges. It is therefore urgent that we involve the huge IT and IT enabled services of the private sector, on a selective basis, to outsource the jobs that the NTRO is unable to do.

In most countries in the West, not every security related job is done by government agencies but by private firms that have core competence in the required field. Outsourcing jobs to them after vetting their security clearances and embedding them with government agencies is the utmost need of the hour. Since we are already handing over defence contracts to private entrepreneurs, there should be no problem in involving them in Cyber operations, as long as the choice of targets, nature of attacks and the timing and location of it are cleared at the highest levels of government so that the responsibility for the impact and possible retaliation rests with them.

Riaz Haq said...

#US-#India interests differ. #Modi should worry India has world's largest population of ill-educated, unskilled, unemployable youth with health & socio-economic indices worse than world’s poorest states', & second-rate military dependent on imported arms. https://bharatkarnad.com/2019/06/24/modi-needs-to-realise-whats-good-for-the-us-is-not-good-for-india/

With both the prime minister and his new external affairs minister, S. Jaishankar, tilting towards the United States, India’s status and stature in the world is all set to decline.

By Bharat Karnad


some of these tactical moves are beginning to tax the patience and goodwill of India’s more steadfast friends, and there’s bound to be adverse reaction. India’s growing military closeness to the US and its seeming compliance with Washington’s demand that it cut its reliance on Russian arms has already stirred Russian President Vladimir Putin, called the “apostle of payback” by former US Deputy Secretary of State William Burns and ambassador to Moscow, into selling Kamov utility helicopters to Pakistan as a warning to Delhi. More lethal and technologically sophisticated military hardware at “friendship prices” could be headed Islamabad’s way in the future. Should Moscow get really punitive, India would face the nightmare of a Russia-China-Pakistan nexus.
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India has spent trillions of rupees since 1947 on education, social welfare programmes and defence. But, 70-odd years later, the country has the largest population in the world of ill-educated, unskilled, unemployable youth, certain health and socio-economic indices that are worse than those of some of the world’s poorest states, and a showy but short-legged and second-rate military dependent on imported armaments.

Yet look at India in macro terms using the somewhat dubious ‘purchasing power parity’ concept and it gets rated as a trillion-dollar economy. What explains this anomaly?

Tufts University political scientist Michael Beckley’s pioneering theory of international relations suggests that gross measures – such as population, GDP, defence budgets, size of armed forces, etc. – are less accurate in assessing the power of nations than “net” factors, such as how effectively national resources are converted into measurable and decisive political, economic and military capability and diplomatic leverage and clout.

In other words, it’s the outcomes that matter. By this standard, the more advanced countries of the West seem to be more efficient converters of their human and material resources into usable policy assets relative to India and other middling powers, or even China, which in this respect falls somewhere in between these two sets of states.

So analysing the outcomes of Narendra Modi’s foreign policy – which is a continuation of the Indian government’s approach and policy from the days of P.V. Narasimha Rao, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh – and of S. Jaishankar’s central role in crafting several crucial agreements in service of this policy, may be a good way of judging its success.

The distinctive feature of India’s external relations in the new century is the pronounced tilt towards the United States. Narasimha Rao worked to obtain a rapprochement in the 1990s, and Vajpayee agreed on the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP). This culminated in 2008 with the civil nuclear cooperation deal with the US and, during Modi’s first term, in India signing two of the three “foundational accords” proposed by Washington – the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA). The third, Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) for sharing geo-spatial information, is awaiting signature.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan NSA @YusufMoeed: #India behind at least 4 high-profile terrorist attacks in Pakistan; 'We have evidence to the T' #terrorism https://www.geo.tv/latest/313067-india-behind-at-least-4-high-profile-terrorist-attacks-in-pakistan-we-have-evidence-to-the-t

India behind Chinese consulate, PSX and Gwadar 5-star hotel attacks
Kulbhushan Jadhav "has been caught with his pants down"
India recently spent $1 million to bring about TTP, 4 other militant organisations' merger in Afghanistan
Kashmiris should be made 3rd party in any India-Pakistan talks


This was the first interview by any Pakistani government official to Indian media after India's illegal attempt to annex occupied Kashmir by revoking Article 370 of the Indian constitution.

Holding India responsible for terrorist attacks in Pakistan, Yusuf said that New Delhi had used a consulate "in a neighbouring country" to launch attacks on a five-star hotel in Gwadar, the Chinese consulate in Karachi and the Pakistan Stock Exchange.

He further said that India recently spent $1 million to merge the Tehreek-e-Taliban-Pakistan (TTP) and four other terrorist organisations in Afghanistan under the supervision of RAW officials.

Read more: Attack on Chinese consulate in Karachi foiled; 2 policemen martyred

Yusuf said that Aslam alias Achu, a militant involved in the attack on the Chinese consulate, had undergone treatment at a hospital in New Delhi, which was proof of India's involvement in the matter.

He told Thapar that the Indian Embassy in Afghanistan was using think-tanks as a front to funnel money to terrorists in Balochistan.

The national security adviser also said that Pakistan had evidence that the mastermind of the APS massacre was in contact with an Indian consulate and that he had the phone number of the handler as well.

"We have evidence to the T," he was quoted as saying by The Wire.


Riaz Haq said...

Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi accused India of spreading terrorism, Qureshi claimed that RAW had given 80 billion rupees to ruin China’s dream project. Presentation of the Islamabad dossier
Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi and army spokesman, backed by sharp retaliation from the army in Jammu and Kashmir, accused India of spreading terrorism in Balochistan. Qureshi claimed that under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi, Indian intelligence agency RAW donated Rs 80 billion and prepared 700 terrorists to destroy the Dream Project’s China-Pakistan economic corridor.

Pakistan’s foreign minister, who referred to terrorists operating in Jammu and Kashmir, presented the dossier on alleged Indian terrorism on Saturday. Qureshi said India gave 80 billion rupees to ruin the CPEC. India has formed a militia of 700 who will continue to target CPEC in Balochistan. India tried to spread nationalism there ahead of the Gilgit-Baltistan elections. Even after the elections, India’s intention is not noble.



https://bcfocus.com/pakistani-dossier-on-indian-terrorism-india-gave-80-billion-rupees-to-destroy-cpec-raw-prepared-700-terrorists-pakistan-pakistan-shah-mehmood-qureshi-presents-dossier-on-indian-terrorism-attribut/

Riaz Haq said...

Chinese State Publication Global Times warns India

#China warns #India after latest #terrorist attack in #Gwadar , #Pakistan:
“China will not only support Pakistan to strike a heavy blow to these terror forces, but also warn all the external forces to stay away from those terror forces” #CPEC #TTP #BLA

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1232068.shtml

In this region, some US and Indian intelligence forces keen to infiltrate into Pakistan have held a hostile attitude toward China's BRI. Blocking the development of the BRI has become their main target to contain China's rise.

And, the terror attack that targeted Chinese engineers who worked for the Dasu hydropower project is said to be fueled by the Indian intelligence agency.

The intentions of the international forces must have influenced and incited terror forces in Pakistan. It is highly likely that those forces collude with and support terrorism in Pakistan. China must be prepared for a long-term fight, together with the Pakistani government, against terrorism in Pakistan. China needs to resolutely support the Pakistani government to crack down on terrorism.

In addition, we'd like to urge the new government in Afghanistan to strike the terrorist forces that were groomed in Afghanistan but now active in Pakistan. This is a window through which China could observe the new government of Afghanistan.

Terror forces in Balochistan, especially the notorious Balochistan Liberation Army, have conducted the most attacks on Chinese nationals in Pakistan. And, the Pakistani Taliban is a vital threat too.

China will not only support Pakistan to strike a heavy blow to these terror forces, but also warn all the external forces to stay away from those terror forces. Once China obtains evidence that they support terrorist forces in Pakistan, China will punish them.

Riaz Haq said...

#Beijing warns: "Some #US & #Indian #intelligence forces keen to infiltrate into #Pakistan....#China will not only support Pakistan to strike a heavy blow to these #terror forces, but also warn all the external forces to stay away from those terror forces" https://www.newsweek.com/china-losing-pakistan-calls-america-india-enemies-opinion-1622297

Op Ed Gordon Chang


As China makes gains in Afghanistan, the regime is suffering severe setbacks in neighboring Pakistan, where resentment against Chinese interests is widespread.

Two suicide bombings in Pakistan—last week and last month—have taken the lives of 11 Chinese nationals and cast doubt about the viability of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. CPEC, as the $62 billion plan is known, is the centerpiece of Xi Jinping's Belt and Road (BRI), his global infrastructure initiative.

China has blamed both the U.S. and India for complicity in the deadly bombings. Beijing could take action against them, thereby engulfing the world's major powers in conflict.


On Friday, a boy suicide bomber killed two Chinese children traveling in the last car of a convoy on the Gwadar East Bay Expressway, a CPEC project. China is caught in the middle of long-running disputes in Pakistan, especially between the oppressed Balochs and Islamabad, and there is little Beijing can do to ensure the security of its workers and dependents in-country. The Balochistan Liberation Army claimed responsibility for the attack.


Gwadar, a Chinese-built port on the Arabian Sea, has been hit by weeks-long protests that shut down the city. Those disturbances have been directed in part against illegal Chinese fishing in nearby waters.

The Gwadar disturbances follow a suicide bombing, on the 14th of last month, targeting the Dasu dam, another CPEC project. The explosion forced a bus into a ravine, killing nine Chinese nationals. The attack is believed to be the most deadly incident against Chinese interests in Pakistan.

"Recently, the security situation in Pakistan has been severe," declared a statement from the Chinese embassy in Islamabad on Friday.

These two incidents, which have followed a series of attacks, have especially alarmed Beijing. "If you've seen the recent developments with CPEC and the Chinese investments in Pakistan, there's been far more anxiety about the security situation there in the last few months than in the last few years," said Andrew Small of the German Marshall Fund to the Hindu, the Chennai-based newspaper. "They're concerned that effectively, Afghanistan could be used as strategic depth for the Pakistani Taliban, and that would have implications for their investments and security interests in the country."

China should be worried. As Kamran Bokhari of the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy tells Newsweek, the fall of the Afghan government has energized the Tehreek-e-Taliban, more commonly known as the Pakistani Taliban. The group "will want to take advantage of what they see as a historic opportunity to replicate in Pakistan the emiratic regime," Bokhari says. To do that, the Pakistani Taliban has been targeting Chinese interests to get Beijing to abandon CPEC projects. As Bokhari points out, China's leaving will weaken Islamabad, and that will help the Pakistani Taliban either topple the current government or grab control of territory along the Afghan border.

Pakistani authorities blamed the July 14 suicide bombing on the Pakistani Taliban, but they say the attacker was "trained in Afghanistan" and "received support from Indian and Afghan intelligence agencies."