Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ
Who was behind the terror attack at Peshawar Agriculture University? Is it the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) that claimed responsibility? Will this attack harden Pakistan's position vis-a-vis TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan? Will it make less likely for Pakistan to cooperate with the US and Afghanistan? Are Pakistani security forces getting better in dealing with such attacks?
Why is former US President Obama in India? What did he say about Pakistan and its alleged role in hiding Osama Bin Laden? Why is Obama advising Indian Prime Minister Modi to abandon Hindu Nationalists' politics of hate and division along religious lines?
Is the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson really on his way out? If so, why? How is the uncertainty impacting American diplomacy abroad? Is President Trump too focussed on building up and funding the military at the expense of diplomacy? Will it backfire?
Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with Misbah Azam and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)
There are 3,476 Pakistani beneficiaries of DACA, former President Barack Obama's initiative providing relief from deportation to over a million young people brought illegally in to the United States as children. President Trump's decision announced by Attorney General Jeff Sessions today to end DACA in 6 months' time has put the future of these young men and women in doubt.
What is DACA?
DACA is the acronym for President Barack Obama's executive order titled "Deferred Action on Childhood Arrivals". It was issued to stop possible deportations of over a million young men and women after the US Congress failed to pass the "Dreamers Act" that would have given them legal status in the United States.
While the overwhelming majority of DACA recipients are from Mexico, the beneficiaries include 7,028 Indians (ranked 12) and 3,476 Pakistanis (ranked 23). There are two other Asian countries of origin among DACA beneficiaries: South Korea ranked 6th with 17,625 and Philippines ranked 10th with 10,099 who arrived in the United States illegally as children.
Mexico tops the countries of origin with 1.2 million DACA recipients, followed by 56,633 from El Salvador at number 2 and 39,258 from Guatemala at number 3.
Poland is the only European country of origin. The rest are mostly from South and Central American and Caribbean island nations.
Impact of DACA Repeal:
DACA's repeal could make the beneficiaries of the program immediately eligible for deportation. It could also strip them of their work permits and rescind in-state tuition for undocumented college students. The program also allowed its recipients to obtain social security numbers.
A study issued in January by the CATO Institute – a libertarian think tank – estimated that deporting all 800,000 DACA recipients – also known as DREAMERs – would cost the federal government $60 billion, and reduce economic growth by $280 billion over the next 10 years, according to a report published in India West.
Summary:
It's now urgent for US Congress to act before DACA ends in the next six months. While a permanent fix by Congress to legalize the status of young people who were brought undocumented to the United States is the right long term solution, it is still a bad idea to end DACA over the next 6 month, particularly if Congress fails to act in this period. It's bad not only for the young people affected by it, but also bad for the US economy to lose so much talent and energy in a short amount of time.
How was the year 2016 for Pakistan? What can Pakistan expect in 2017?
Did Pakistan’s internal security improve in 2016? If do, how? And by how much? How was it done? By Zarb e Azb military operation? Did Pakistan implement the National Action Plan to address extremism and radicalization in society?
How will Obama’s exit and Trump’s presidency affect US-Pakistan relations? Will these be as bad as under Obama? Or better? Or worse under Trump? How will Pakistan’s close ties with China and warming relations with Russia play into this?
Did the Obama administration initially condoned the rise of ISIS in Syria as claimed by President-elect Donal Trump's national security advisor General Michael Flynn in an interview with Mehdi Hasan of Aljazeera? Will Russia-Turkey-Iran succeed in bringing peace to Syria?
Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with panelists Misbah Azam and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)
The outgoing administration of lame-duck President Barack Obama has ordered sanctions against seven Pakistani entities for "acting contrary to the national security or foreign policy interests of the United States".
This parting shot by Obama confirms his legacy as an American chief executive most hostile toward the United States' cold war ally Pakistan.
The United States Federal Register has listed the following Pakistani entities on its sanctions list: National Engineering and Scientific Commission (NESCOM); three NESCOM subsidiaries: Air Weapons Complex (AWC), Maritime Technology Complex (MTC) and New Auto Engineering (NAE); and Universal Tooling Services. The sanctioned entities are involved in developing missiles and related systems for Pakistani military.
Salala Incident:
Prior to the latest Obama sanctions announcement, the Obama years have seen US-Pakistan relations sink to an all-time low in 2011 when the United States refused to apologize after the US troops killed 24 Pakistani soldiers in an attack on two border posts on Pak-Afghan border. Pakistan responded by cutting off supply routes to NATO troops in Afghanistan. These supply routes were reopened only after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton apologized to Pakistan in July 2012.
Pivot to Asia:
As part of the US "pivot to Asia" policy to counter China's rise, President Obama also courted India at the expense of America's cold war ally Pakistan. Mr. Obama visited India twice and never once visited Pakistan during his two terms. The US signed multiple agreements with India, including a nuclear deal and a military logistics deal. At the same time, the United States has pushed for India's inclusion in the Nuclear Suppliers Group while keeping Pakistan out.
Pakistan-China Ties:
With growing distance from the United States, Pakistan has forged closer ties with China culminating in a massive $55 billion Chinese investment in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). If all goes well and on schedule, of the 21 CPEC-related agreements on energy– including gas, coal and solar energy– 14 will be able to provide up to 10,400 megawatts (MW) of energy by March 2018. According to China Daily, these projects would provide up to 16,400 MW of energy altogether. In addition, there will be a network of roads, rail-links and pipeline stretching several thousand kilometers from Pakistani ports on the Arabian Sea to landlocked Western China.
Pakistan ties with its cold war foe Russia have also warmed up. Russia has agreed to invest in building a gas pipeline in Pakistan. Russia has also lifted its arms embargo and agreed to sell attack helicopters to Pakistani military. The two countries had first-ever joint military exercises in 2016. Recently, Pakistan, China and Russia held a trilateral meeting in Moscow on Afghanistan.
US-Pakistan Ties Under Trump:
Going by President-elect Donald Trump's initial friendly call with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in December 2016, it seems that the US-Pakistan ties are likely to be better, not worse what we have seen in the last 8 years with Washington-Islamabad relations sinking to a new low.
Summary:
President Obama's two terms in office have seen the cooling of US-Pakistan ties. In the same period, Pakistan has further cemented its close relations with China and warmed up ties with its cold war foe Russia. Will US-Pakistan ties warm up again under President Trump? Only time will tell.
“Right now, many Muslim Americans are worried because threats and harassment against
their community are on the rise,” President Obama recently wrote in a commentary for Religion
News Service. “We’ve seen Muslim Americans assaulted, children bullied and mosques vandalized,
and we’ve heard shameful political rhetoric against Muslim Americans that has no place in our
country.”
The president’s words recognize higher levels of anti-Muslim rhetoric and violence in America, the
intensification of an Islamophobia that spiked after 9/11.
What is going on?
President Mosque Meeting American Muslims at the Islamic Center of Baltimore, Maryland
On one hand, American society is conflating Islam with the group that calls itself the Islamic State
and reacting to Muslims in a way reminiscent of its 1940s internment of ethnic Japanese. On the
other hand, there is concern that acts of radical Islamic fundamentalists present a threat to the
nation.
A non-exhaustive list of such events might start in 2009, when 13 people were killed and 30 were
wounded by a lone gunman at Fort Hood, Texas. In May 2010, a car bomb was poised to go off in
New York’s Times Square. Recently, two shooters killed 14 people in San Bernardino, Calif. — the
latest tragedy among a number far too large.
There is fair and growing angst within American society about the behavior and treatment of
Muslims. But the greater concern should be the emergence of a vicious cycle arcing from fear, to
grievance, to violence.
Are we already spiraling? While the 9/11 hijackers were foreign nationals, those behind more recent
attacks are often American-born or naturalized citizens. Many grew up in this country and even
earned college degrees by virtue of their U.S. citizenship.
To prevent similar events in the future, we may be inclined to ask of past perpetrators: “Were you
motivated entirely by religious radicalization, or was your anger sparked by mistreatment and
disenfranchisement?” Whatever the answer, the required response will involve the Muslim
community, a part of which has shown little inclination to address the problem of the radicalized
within it.
We’re seeing now that events like those since 2009 make victims of survivors as well as the
deceased. Muslim communities in North America and around the globe mourn alongside the
bereaved, but with their grief there is also the fear that all who practice Islam will come to be
perceived as terrorists. The natural reaction is to turn inward, and as current events show, it is
reasonable for Muslims to be fearful.
But it is also reasonable to believe that homegrown terrorist attacks can be prevented, and if we are
learning anything, it’s that the best opportunity — and the responsibility — to do so begins at home
— first with immediate family members and then friends, co-workers, community members and
religious leaders. It ends with law enforcement authorities.
What can Muslims do to break the cycle of violence and Islamophobia?
Work within Muslim communities to identify extremism and radicalization before it culminates in
violence. Uniting a community under a common goal can turn strangers into friends and make the
communities warmer, more vigilant and safer for everyone. Neighborhood and community watches
do this already and are organized for the same purposes — safety and crime prevention. A well-run
program can achieve greater socialization, spot early signs of concern and effectively prevent crime
without abandoning personal privacy.
American society is made stronger and more resilient when it is a community of overlapping
communities and when responsibilities are shared.
“You are not Muslim or American. You are Muslim and American,” Obama said in his RNS
commentary, echoing a recent speech at a Maryland mosque. It is as much a statement of fact as it
is a challenge, and in both cases, it begins at home.
Note: Author Athar Javaid is President of INDUS — Mobilizing People’s Power, a Washington, D.C.-registered
501(c)3 tax-exempt think tank and advocacy group dedicated to a progressive and politically stable
Pakistan, strong U.S.-Pakistan relations and community integration and civic promotion in the United
States. INDUS has no political affiliations in the United States or political ambitions in Pakistan.
Why is there increasing violence at rallies held by US Republican presidential front-runner Donald J. Trump? Who’s inciting it? Is it Trump himself egging on his angry supporters to hurt protesters? How will this affect the holding of peaceful elections in 2016? Will it hurt the US image in the international community?
Why did the Obama administration and the US Senate ignore efforts by Indian lobby, including Husain Haqqani and Tarek Fatah, to block the $700 million deal to sell F-16s and other related equipment to Pakistan? Why did the US-Pakistan joint declaration after strategic dialogue in Washington refer to the importance of Kashmir resolution? Is the US willing to anger New Delhi to maintain close ties with its arch-rival Pakistan?
Is Mustafa Kamal bandwagon gathering momentum with more MQM leaders joining the ex mayor of Karachi? How many more will jump on this bandwagon to try and isolate the all-powerful Altaf Husain and his London-based Rabita Committee? Why did Obama not acknowledge “close ties” with America’s “ally” Saudi Arabia? Why did he say “Saudi Arabia must share region with Iran”? Is Obama putting Iran and Saudi Arabia on the same footing now?
What led to the welcome release of Gov Salman Taseer’s son Shahbaz Taseer soon after Mumtaz Qadri execution? Was he recovered by use of Pak military force or by ransom paid to kidnappers by his family?
Viewpoint From Overseas host Misbah Azam discusses these questions with panelists Ali H. Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)
Tarek Fatah, Canadian Muslim writer and broadcaster, and Riaz Haq, a Pakistani-American blogger, debate the following:
In a 2013 interview with Times of India, Tarek Fatah said, “Pakistan will soon disintegrate”. Is this a prediction or a wish? Why is he such a strong and vocal supporter of Baloch insurgents? If Pakistan does disintegrate, what will be its fall-out for the region and the world?
When Tarek Fatah was asked in an NDTV interview about Donald Trump’s Muslim Ban, why did he criticize Muslims, Obama and western liberals rather than address the question directly?
Why is Tarek Fatah seen in the company of well-known anti-Islam bigots like Robert Spencer and Frank Gaffney on Fox News and as a guest of honor of RSS student wing ABVP at JNU in India?
How does India feel about China-Pakistan Economic Corridor called CPEC? Is Modi government involved in disrupting CPEC? Is insurgency in Balochistan a part of Indian efforts to sabotage China’s short direct access to the Indian Ocean? What does the Times of India editorial titled “Engage the Dragon on Balochistan” say about thinking in Delhi?
Why did President Barack Obama wait to visit a mosque until his eighth year in office? Was this decision triggered by a leading Republican candidate Donald Trump’s attacks on Muslims? What did Obama say about attacks on Muslim Republicans?
What is the primary elections process prior to general elections in the United States of America? Who are the likely 2016 general elections candidates of Democratic and Republican parties? Who is most likely to win?
Viewpoint From Overseas host Misbah Azam discusses these questions with panelists Ali H. Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)
All the speculations about the United States walking away from Pakistan this year have been proved wrong by the joint statement issued by the White House after this week's summit meeting between Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and US President Barack Obama in Washington D.C.
US-Pakistan Joint Statement:
The US-Pakistan joint statement reaffirmed "enduring U.S.-Pakistan partnership" for "a prosperous Pakistan, and a more stable region." It commits the two sides to work "jointly toward strengthening strategic stability in South Asia". The statement further said that "President Obama expressed support for Pakistan’s efforts to secure funding for Diamer Bhasha and Dasu dams to help meet Pakistan’s energy and water needs."
Referring to the strained India-Pakistan ties, the statement said that both leaders "emphasized the importance of a sustained and resilient dialogue process between the two neighbors aimed at resolving all outstanding territorial and other disputes, including Kashmir, through peaceful means and working together to address mutual concerns of India and Pakistan regarding terrorism".
US Assistance to Pakistan:
There are also media reports indicating that President Obama has decided to sell 8 new F-16s to Pakistan. Mr. Obama has also pledged $900 million in assistance to Pakistan for 2015-16. In addition, both Washington Post and New York Times have reported that the United States wants to negotiate a civil nuclear deal with Pakistan. Pakistan has said it will not accept any conditions that limit its nuclear weapons program in exchange for a civil nuclear deal with the United States.
India's Strong Negative Reaction:
As expected, India has reacted with anger to references to US support for strategic stability in South Asia region, support for Diamer Bhasha dam financing and resolution of Kashmir issue through peaceful means. The reports of F-16 sale to Pakistan and possible US-Pakistan civil nuclear deal have also elicited a strong negative reaction in New Delhi.
The US-Pakistan joint statement and several White House fact sheets have detailed US-Pakistan cooperation in education, energy, trade and investment, defense, cybersecurity and counter terrorism.
US-Pakistan Partnerships:
Under the U.S.-Pakistan Clean Energy Partnership, the United States said it "will work with the Government of Pakistan to advance energy sector reforms, improve the investment framework, and make targeted investments that will enable U.S., Pakistani, and international private sector developers to add at least 3,000 megawatts (MW) of clean power generation infrastructure to Pakistan’s national electricity system, benefitting 30 million Pakistanis".
Under the Education partnership, the United States, through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), committed $70 million to work jointly with the Government of Pakistan and other partners to help educate and empower more than 200,000 additional adolescent girls across Pakistan.
The United States is already funding three centers for advanced studies for agriculture, energy and water under the education partnership. The Center For Advanced Studies in Agriculture is at the University of Agriculture in Faisalabad, the Center For Advanced Studies in energy at Peshawar University and the Center For Advance Studies in water at Mehran University. These centers are working with major US universities.
Under Trade and Investment Partnership, the United States will help upgrade the capabilities of the ready-made garments (RMG) sector through support of vocational centers dedicated to RMG and improvements in industry labor conditions. U.S. assistance will also help scale-up Pakistan’s International Labor Organization (ILO)-International Labor Standards (ILS) Textile program and support the launch of an ILO “Better Work Program.” Also, the United States will support an investment event in New York to highlight opportunities in Pakistan’s RMG industry and other sectors. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative will assist the Government of Pakistan in identifying and petitioning for additional GSP tariff lines and to obtain eligibility for exports of goods under newly GSP-eligible travel goods tariff lines.
Summary:
The latest Obama-Sharif Summit in Washington has cleared up any confusion that may have been created by the continuing US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and the expiration of Kerry-Lugar Bill. The US-Pakistan joint statement has firmly established continuing US interest in maintaining close ties with Pakistan. Pakistan's strategic location makes it attractive to both the United States and China, the world's two largest economic and military powers, to maintain close ties with it. What comes out of these ties will ultimately be determined by how well the Pakistani leaders leverage them for maximum benefit for the well-being of the people of Pakistan.
Why is the Lahore NA-122 By-Election Significant? Why is it so hard fought?
How will the forced cancellation of Ghulam Ali's Mumbai concert affect India-Pakistan cultural ties?
Will it spill over into all people-people contact between the two countries? How is Indian media's intense anti-Pakistan propaganda hurting the entire region?
What are the chances of US-Pakistan civil nuclear deal? Why are Washington think tanks and US mainstream media talking about it ahead of Obama-Sharif summit scheduled for late October 2015?
"Number one, the people negotiating don’t have a clue. Our president doesn’t have a clue. He’s a bad negotiator...We get Bergdahl. We get a traitor. We get a no-good traitor, and they get the five people that they wanted for years, and those people are now back on the battlefield trying to kill us. That’s the negotiator we have...I know the smartest negotiators in the world. I know the good ones. I know the bad ones. I know the overrated ones...But I know the negotiators in the world, and I put them one for each country. Believe me, folks. We will do very, very well, very, very well." Donald Trump, Wall Street Journal, June 16, 2015
Donald Trump
US real estate billionaire and Republication candidate Donald Trump's rhetoric on US negotiators' skills reminds me of similar writings and analyses of the US-Pakistan ties offered by Mr. Husain Haqqani, Ex Pakistani Ambassador in Washington.
“Since 1947,” Haqqani argues in his book "Magnificent Delusion", “dependence, deception, and defiance have characterized US-Pakistan relations. We sought US aid in return for promises we did not keep.....Pakistan and the United States have few shared interests and very different political needs… If $40 billion in US aid has not won Pakistani hearts and minds, billions more will not do the trick… The US-Pakistan alliance is only a mirage.”
Husain Haqqani
If one really analyses Haqqani's narrative, one has to conclude that Pakistanis are extraordinarily clever in deceiving the United States and its highly sophisticated policymakers who have been taken for a ride by Pakistanis for over 6 decades.
Similar narrative can be found in recent books by other authors. Notable among them are Carlotta Gall (The Wrong Enemy) and TV Paul ( Pakistan: The Warrior State). Are they giving advice to Donald Trump? They all seem to think that they could do better than the highly sophisticated US policymakers and seasoned diplomats, like Ex US CIA Director and Ex Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who have real experience in such matters. Here's a quote from Secretary Gates's testimony to a US Senate Committee: "Well, first of all, I would say, based on 27 years in CIA and four and a half years in this job, most governments lie to each other. That's the way business gets done."
Here is the text of the exchange between Gates and Leahy during the US Senate hearing on Pakistan that began with Leahy asking Gates how long the U.S. will be willing to "support governments that lie to us?"
GATES: Well, first of all, I would say, based on 27 years in CIA and four and a half years in this job, most governments lie to each other. That's the way business gets done.
LEAHY: Do they also arrest the people that help us when they say they're allies?
GATES: Sometimes.
LEAHY: Not often.
GATES: And -- and sometimes they send people to spy on us, and they're our close allies. So...
LEAHY: And we give aid to them.
GATES: ... that's the real world that we deal with.
Will Donald Trump win the Republican Primary and then be elected the next President of the United States? Will Trump prove Gall, Haqqani, Paul and others right by being tough on Pakistan, Iran, Mexico, China and other nations? The chances that Gall-Haqqani-Paul narrative will be put to test by Trump appear remote. It may be the best thing to happen to preserve world peace and allow the US and the rest of the world to prosper.
What is all the controversy surrounding senate elections in Pakistan, especially in KP and Baluchistan? Why has the new Saudi Arabian King Salman invited Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and rolled out the red carpet for him? What are Pakistan's chances at the ICC World Cup 2015? Why has Sri Lanka's ex-President Rajapaksa accused India and RAW of fomenting terror in Pakistan and Sri Lanka? What will be the impact of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech to US Congress on President Obama's efforts to reach a nuclear deal with Iran?
How will President Obama's India visit change US-Pakistan ties? How will it impact the situation in Afghanistan? What is China's role in Afghanistan? Why are the Afghan Taliban visiting Beijing? How will Saudi King Abdullah's passing change the situation on the ground in the Middle East? Why has the Punjab governor Muhammad Sarwar resigned his position? What's next for him? ViewPoint from Overseas host Sabahat Ashraf (iFaqeer) discusses these questions with panelists Ali H Cemendtaur , Misbah Azam(www.politicsinpakistan.com) and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com) https://vimeo.com/118319754
What is President Barack Husain Obama's India Visit Agenda? Will India-Pakistan tensions and Afghanistan be at the top of the agenda? Will it lead to improved cooperation in South Asia? Is Iran behind the Yemen crisis? Will it intensify Saudi-Iranian proxy war in the Middle East? How will the death of Saudi King Abdullah affect it? How will it impact Pakistan?
"My working and personal relationship with President Obama is marked by growing trust. I appreciate this. I carefully studied his address to the nation on Tuesday. And I would rather disagree with a case he made on American exceptionalism, stating that the United States’ policy is “what makes America different. It’s what makes us exceptional.” It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional, whatever the motivation. There are big countries and small countries, rich and poor, those with long democratic traditions and those still finding their way to democracy. Their policies differ, too. We are all different,but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal." Russian President Vladimir Putin's Op Ed in New York Times
Clearly, Mr. Putin does not like the fact that the United States considers itself exceptional. But what does "exceptional" mean?
To me, "exceptional" is just another word for "special". I don't know of any nation that doesn't think they are special in some way and they use it to whip up their own brand of nationalism.
In the case of United States, however, there are genuine reasons based on rational data and facts that establish US as "special" in multiple dimensions. The US is a multi-dimensional hyper-power the likes of which the world has not seen.
The current world order and its institutional framework were architected by post-WW II American leaders. Establishment of international institutions like the United Nations and its multiple agencies, the World Bank, IMF, GATT and WTO was spearheaded by Americans.
Not only is the US the biggest military power many times larger than number two Russia, the US dollar is the world's unchallenged currency which is used for the bulk of international trade and as reserve currency by central banks around the globe. The US is the world's largest economy and the biggest trading partner of most of the countries of the world. The US also boasts the world's top entrepreneurs, most innovative companies and bulk of the top universities with the lion's share of Nobel prizes. The US leadership in wide range of technologies and industries is unquestionable. And the US lead is growing, not shrinking with new developments.
In spite of its great technological advances, the US still retains many vestiges of its Wild West. With its powerful gun-rights advocates in many western, mid-western and southern states, the US is still a gun-slinging frontier society in many ways which makes it jealously guard its exceptional status in the world.
The US seeks to avoid the fate of other great empires of the past which were brought down by barbarians and desert tribesmen over the centuries.
Here's a excerpt of a piece by NY Times Nobel Laureate economist-columnist on Ibn Khaldun's lessons for established powers: "Desert tribesmen, he argued, always have more courage and social cohesion than settled, civilized folk, so every once in a while they will sweep in and conquer lands whose rulers have become corrupt and complacent. They create a new dynasty — and, over time, become corrupt and complacent themselves, ready to be overrun by a new set of barbarians...I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to apply this story to Microsoft, a company that did so well with its operating-system monopoly that it lost focus, while Apple — still wandering in the wilderness after all those years — was alert to new opportunities. And so the barbarians swept in from the desert".
US intelligence analyst and author George Friedman in his book "The Next 100 Years" describes the United States as "young and barbaric" with the barbarian instincts to fight off most threats, including those from the rag-tag bands of tribesmen and barbarians who have toppled great empires of the past like the Roman empire, the Byzantine empire, the Persian empires, the Umayyid empire, the Abbasid empire and the Soviet empire.
Polls indicate that Mitt Romney would be elected US president on Nov 6, 2012 if Israelis and Pakistanis had their way. Most foreign policy analysts, however, believe that such an outcome would not result in any fundamental US policy shift for the two disgruntled nations.
Why Romney?
To understand why Pakistanis expressed a preference for Romney over President Barrack Obama, let us review some of the ostensible reasons for it:
1. Most Pakistanis hoped that Romney would stop CIA-operated drone attacks in FATA. The facts is that Romney, in response to a question during the presidential debate on foreign policy, said as follows: “I believe we should use any and all means necessary to take out people
who pose a threat to us and our friends around the world. And it’s
widely reported that drones are being used in drone strikes, and I
support that and entirely.”
2. There is a common perception among Pakistanis that Republicans in the White House are better for them. This perception is based on cold-war era policies that brought significant US aid to Pakistan during early 1960s under President Dwight D. Eisenhower, and 1980s under President Ronald Reagan and 2000s under President George W. Bush.
This perception is not valid now because President Obama, a Democrat, has tripled US aid to Pakistan from $738 million in 2008 to $2.108 billion in 2012.
US Troops Withdrawal:
Now that President Obama has been re-elected, it is almost certain that US will withdraw most of its troops by 2014 as planned.
Beyond 2014, all the signs indicate that the US will continue to be engaged militarily, economically and diplomatically in the region. Part of the motivation will be to try and deal with potential threats to the American homeland from possible resurgence of Al Qaeda and its affiliates in Afghanistan and Pakistan. But the other part is the more ambitious effort to maintain US economic and diplomatic power and influence in Asia.
The US military involvement will be mostly in the form of drones and special operations. It is quite possible that the Americans may increase the frequency and intensity of CIA-operated drone attacks and joint special operations (JSOC).
President Kennedy Receiving President Ayub at Andrews AFB
L to R: Ayub Khan, Nasim Aurangzeb, Jackie Kennedy, John F. Kennedy
New Great Game:
On the diplomatic front, the US will maintain close ties with Pakistan's political, military and intelligence establishment regardless of who holds power after the upcoming elections in 2013. Rhetoric on either side may change from time to time but the US aid flow and Pakistani cooperation will not. As Romney said and Obama seemed to agree during the foreign policy debate that “it’s not time to divorce a nation on Earth that has 100 nuclear weapons and is on the way to double that at some point."
In addition to the continuing US pressure to act in FATA, Pakistan is also being pressed by its other friend China to crack down on the Taliban because the Chinese also feel threatened by the Pakistan-based Taliban militants for their alleged support and sheltering of Chinese Uighur Muslim militants who are waging war against the Chinese government in Xinjiang province.
On the economic front, both China and the United States have significant long-term interests in Pakistan, as does Russia, because of its strategic location as a transit country. Some see the growing US-China competition in Central Asia as the start of a New Great Game for power and influence in the Asian continent. This Game will present Pakistan with its greatest challenge and the greatest opportunity in the 21st century.
The Chinese see the value of access to the Arabian sea as the shortest route for trade in and out of Western China to develop and stabilize its restive Xinijiang province. A number of Chinese companies are working on building roads such as the Karakoram Highway and other infrastructure for this purpose.
US Pivot to Asia:
Re-elected President Obama is making his first major foreign trip to ASEAN summit in Cambodia. As part of President Obama's "pivot to Asia" to check China's rise, the Americans have a strong competing interest in creating a new silk route in Asia that bypasses China. Americans envision such land route extending from resource rich Stans in Central Asia to resource hungry South Asia and Southeast Asia region via Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. The expected energy flow for energy-hungry Pakistan and the potential annual transit fees worth billions of dollars from this trade route are part of the US sponsored incentives for Pakistan to help stabilize the situation in Afghanistan. The first example of this effort is the American push for TAPI--Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline.
Summary:
There are two important messages for Islamabad coming from Washington and Beijing: 1)Both US and China have a common interest in defeating the militants operating from Pakistan's FATA region even as the two great powers compete in a high-stakes game to dominate Asia. 2) Obama will follow through on his plans to withdraw ground troops from Afghanistan by 2014 but still continue to be engaged there for a variety of short-term and long-term goals in Central and South Asia and the larger Asian continent.
Here's a recent video discussion on the subject in which I participated:
