Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Wednesday, May 24, 2023

G20 Kashmir Meeting: Modi's PR Ploy Backfires!

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's campaign to show normalcy in the Indian occupied territory of Jammu and Kashmir has backfired. Three member countries of the G20 boycotted the tourism event in Srinagar. The rest of them sent local embassy staff to attend. The event also drew negative worldwide media coverage of the brutality of India's "settler colonialism" in the disputed territory. It elicited strong condemnation from the United Nations. Prior to the event, India’s tourism secretary, Arvind Singh had promised that the meeting will not only “showcase (Kashmir’s) potential for tourism” but also “signal globally the restoration of stability and normalcy in the region.” The Modi government failed to achieve both of these objectives.

G20 Meeting in Indian Military Occupied Kashmir

Meeting Boycott:

China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey did not attend the G20 event in Srinagar. Rest of the G20 members sent diplomats posted in New Delhi to attend it. It's not unusual for foreign diplomats to visit disputed territories such as Jammu and Kashmir. Last year, Donald Blome, US Ambassador to Pakistan, visited what he called "Azad Jammu and Kashmir". The G20 Tourism Working Group meeting in Kashmir drew condemnation from China and the United Nations.

“China firmly opposes holding any form of G20 meetings on disputed territory. We will not attend such meetings,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin at a press briefing on May 19 in Beijing.

Fernand de Varennes, U.N. special rapporteur on minority issues, criticized the meeting, saying that by hosting the session in Kashmir, “India is seeking to normalize what some have described as a military occupation by instrumentalizing a G20 meeting and portray an international 'seal of approval’.”

The UN representative warned the G20 of “unwittingly providing a veneer of support to a facade of normalcy at a time when massive human rights violations, illegal and arbitrary arrests, political persecutions, restrictions and even suppression of free media and human rights defenders continue to escalate.”

Heavy Indian Security Presence at Dal Lake For G20 in Kashmir. Source: Washington Post

International Media Coverage:

The global media coverage of the G20 meeting in Kashmir has largely been negative. It has highlighted the brutal occupation of the region by the Indian military.

A piece in The Conversation accused India of "using the G20 summit to further its settler-colonial ambitions in Kashmir". It pointed out that the "route to Gulmarg (G20 event location) is lined with barbed wire. Armed soldiers keep watch from fortified bunkers". The Conversation piece offers the following advice to anyone visiting Indian Occupied Kashmir:

"Those visiting (Indian Occupied) Kashmir must first learn about the decolonial history of the region, one that honors Kashmiri calls for self-determination and sovereignty. They must follow the principle of do no harm by not visiting tourist sites or using tour operators run by Indian authorities. They should support local Kashmiri-run businesses as much as possible. There is no simple resolution for tourism on occupied lands. Tourism amid settler-colonialism manifests in exploitation, dispossession, commodification and other injustices and inequities. The goal of ethical travel is not immediate perfection or self-exoneration. It is an invitation to think about our own actions and complicity".

A story in "The Guardian" noted that the G20 Kashmir meeting "required a large show of security at Srinagar international airport". It added: "India’s presidency of the G20 group of leading nations has become mired in controversy after China and Saudi Arabia boycotted a meeting staged in Kashmir, the first such gathering since India unilaterally brought Kashmir under direct control in August 2019".

Voice of America reported that the "security moved into the background to give a sense of normalcy amid reports of mass detentions" as the event drew closer.

Modi's Blunders:

Prime Minister Modi's PR campaign has clearly backfired. His government's actions have failed to project any sense of normalcy in the disputed region. In fact, Mr. Modi's blunders have helped internationalize the issue of Kashmir on the world stage. They have drawn China further into the Kashmir dispute, particularly in the Ladakh region where the Chinese troops have taken large chunks of what India claims as its territory.

In an Op Ed for the Deccan Herald, Indian Journalist Bharat Bhushan has accused Modi government of "overplaying its hand in organizing a G20 event in Srinagar". He has summed up the fallout from the G20 Kashmir Meeting failure as follows:

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming State visit to the United States makes this rebuff on J&K by the international community, especially significant. What might have been ignored by India and perhaps down-played, at least publicly by the US, in the build-up to the Modi-Biden summit, will now become an additional irritant in the bilateral relationship. Did the Modi government bait fate by overplaying its hand in organizing a G20 event in Srinagar?"

Here's India's JNU Professor speaking about illegal Indian occupation of Kashmir, Manipur and Nagaland:

https://youtu.be/KWp1E8xrY5E

Wednesday, May 17, 2023

India-Russia Trade: Is Indian Rupee Worthless For Cross-Border Transactions?

What good is a currency in global trade if it can not be used to buy products and services from other nations that a country needs? The answer to this question came when Russia said it has accumulated billions of rupees in Indian banks which it can not use. “This is a problem”, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters in India’s Western state of Goa on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting. “We need to use this money. But for this, these rupees must be transferred in another currency, and this is being discussed now”. Russia has decided it won't take any more Indian rupees. Moscow has rejected New Delhi's proposal for the Kremlin to invest rupees from oil and military equipment payments back into Indian capital markets so the currency doesn't pile up.

Global Export Map 2023. Source: World Population Review

Only the currencies issued by the governments of the world's largest exporters are useful for buying products and services on the world markets. China, United States, Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom are the world's top 5 exporting nations as of 2020. This makes Chinese Yuan, US Dollar, European Euro, Japanese Yen and British Pound the most important international trade currencies. Of these currencies, only the Chinese Yuan is not impacted by the western sanctions on trade with Russia. Russia wants India to convert Indian Rupees to Chinese Yuan to pay for energy and military equipment imports from Russia.

Yuan vs Dollar in Chinese Cross-Border Trade. Source: Bloomberg

The share of the Chinese Yuan in international trade has been increasing since the US imposed sanctions on the use of the US dollar in trade with Russia. Earlier this year, the Chinese Yuan eclipsed the US dollar as the most used currency for Chinese cross-border transactions, according to Market Insider. The Yuan's use in cross-border payments and receipts rose to 48.4% at the end of March while the dollar's share slid to 46.7%, according to a Reuters calculation of data from China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange. The yuan's use in global trade finance remains low, though it has shown steady increases. Data from SWIFT showed that the Chinese yuan's share of global currency transactions for trade finance rose to 4.5% in March, while the US dollar accounted for 83.71%, according to Reuters.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Impact of Russia Sanctions on US Dollar

India Biggest Winner of Russia Sanctions and US-China Tensions

Ukraine Resists Russia Alone: A Tale of West's Broken Promises

Ukraine's Lesson For Pakistan: Never Give Up Nuclear Weapons

Pakistani-American Heads SWIFT

Russia Sanction: India Profiting From Selling Russian Oil

Indian Diplomat on Pakistan's "Resilience", "Strategic CPEC"

Why Does India Lag So Far Behind China?

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Friday, May 12, 2023

Pakistan Now: Darkest Before Dawn?

Pakistan is experiencing one of the darkest periods of its history. Political instability is eroding confidence in the nation's future. Declining economic growth and high inflation are hurting the people of all strata of society, particularly the poor whose numbers are rapidly rising. Is there any hope left for the country? Is it a case of the "darkest before dawn"? How do investors see it?

Ex PM Imran Khan (R) with President Erdogan

Writing in the Time magazine immediately after the recent arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, American investor, author and commentator Zachary Karabell who has invested in Pakistani startups sees rare hope for Pakistan. He sees Pakistan where Turkey was back in 2001-2003, "when a series of elections brought Recep Erdogan to power even as he was repeatedly disqualified by a military that was determined to retain control". Here's an excerpt of his article titled "The Contrarian Case for Pakistan" published in the current issue of Time Magazine:

"To some degree, this is an argument of “well, it’s not as bad as they say.” But it’s also a way of highlighting that Pakistan today may be a case of darkest before the dawn. With elections schedule for the fall, and with Imran Khan the most likely victor of said elections unless is his arrest leads to his disqualification as a candidate, Pakistan is in a very similar position to where Turkey was in 2001-2003, when a series of elections brought Recep Erdogan to power even as he was repeatedly disqualified by a military that was determined to retain control. Imran Khan has many of the same strengths and weaknesses of Erdogan, who after championing Turkish democracy and economic reform, then turned into the very type of corrupt autocrat that he had once fought against. But he nonetheless unleashed massive economic potential in Turkey and has left its 80 million people materially better off over the past 20 years, even as hyperinflation and Erdogan’s recent economic ineptitude is now eroding that. Should Imran Khan return to the head the government, he may well usher in a similar period in Pakistan, even as he has his own authoritarian and demagogic tendencies".

Here are some of the key points Karabell makes in his opinion piece:

1. Pakistan has a real and dynamic private sphere that is not only seeing a start-up and new business ecosystem that has attracted hundreds of millions of dollars a year for the past few years but operates freely in a way that would be inconceivable in many other countries. Compare it to Egypt, for example, which receives far less negative attention and more foreign money yet is almost entirely dominated by a military dictatorship. Or Algeria. And then there are countries which barely function at all, dominating a whole swath of Sub-Saharan Africa but also dot central Asia (Tajikistan anyone?).

2. Pakistan is the fifth most populous country in the world with 230 million souls, a median age of barely 22 and two-thirds of the population under the age of 30. That means unlike most of the world, it has a favorable demographic future.

2. Unlike, say, Nigeria, where the ethnic divisions and decades of corruption mean that it well-nigh impossible to treat the country as one unified market for goods and services, Pakistan is one common market even with its various tribal divisions.

Pakistan Population Youngest Among Major Asian Nations. Source: Nikkei Asia

Karabell concludes with the following:

Pakistan is on a cusp. We should honor the fact that whichever way the consensus believes it will go, the country is also poised to breakout on the upside. Which path will only be clear in retrospect, but we should pay more attention to the potential of things going right along with the legitimate focus on all that is going wrong.

Digital Pakistan: Broadband Penetration Soars to 90% of Adult 15+ Population

State Bank Targets Fully Digital Economy in Pakistan

China to Further Expand, Deepen Ties with Pakistan

Pakistan Forecast to Become World's 7th Largest Consumer Market By 2030

Goldman Sachs Predicts Pakistan to Grow to World's 6th Largest Economy

Over a Million Pakistani University Students Enrolled in STEM Fields

Pakistani Startups Attract Record VC Funding

Pakistan at 75

Pakistan's Demographic Dividend: Record Remittances From Overseas Pakistanis

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Sunday, April 30, 2023

Padlocked Grave Story Confirms Yet Again India's Status as the Hub of Fake News

The story of the padlocked grave has gone viral, thanks to the mainstream Indian news media ranging from the Times of India to NDTV. The story links the image of a padlocked grave to rising necrophilia cases in Pakistan, with the claim that the image is an example of how parents lock their daughters’ graves in Pakistan in order to prevent rape. Alt News, a fact-check site run by Mohammed Zubair and Pratik Sinha, has found that the grave is in fact located in the Indian city of Hyderabad.

Fake News in Indian Mainstream Media. Source: Alt News

Indian news agency ANI Digital tweeted the image of the green padlocked grave with the claim. In its article titled ‘Pakistani parents lock daughters’ graves to avoid rape’, it cited a Daily Times article to report that parents in Pakistan protected their dead daughters against rape by putting padlocks on their graves. None made any attempt to verify it.

Padlocked Grave Fake News Made Top Google Search Results For Pakistan on April 30, 2023

The media are no longer credible and independent. Instead of going after the Indian media for spreading fake news, the Indian government is cracking down on fact-checkers like Mohammad Zubair. Last year, Zubair was arrested and jailed for months for exposing fake news published in the Indian media. “People in power want to shut me up for exposing their propaganda, their lies and their hate campaigns,” ,said in an interview with the New York Times. “They want to scare other journalists and activists by targeting me.”

Here's a fact check on the padlocked grave location in India, not in Pakistan:

https://youtu.be/hZ_YAkagtps

In 2018, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's right-hand man and home minister Amit Shah told his party's volunteers commonly known as Modi Bhakts: "We can keep making messages go viral, whether they are real or fake, sweet or sour". "Keep making messages go viral. We have already made a WhatsApp group with 32 lakh people in Uttar Pradesh; every morning they are sent a message at 8 am", Shah added, according to a report in Dainik Bhaskar, an Indian Hindi-language daily newspaper.

Indian Fake News Peddlers Rahul Kanwal (L) and Arnab Goswami

Amit Shah's advice has been heeded by not only BJP trolls but also many in the Indian mainstream media, including Times of India, NDTV, India Today and Republic TV.

After the 2019 aerial battle between Indian Air Force and Pakistan Air Force over Kashmir, India government and media claimed shooting down a Pakistani F-16. India Today TV anchor Rahul Kanwal invited Abhijit Aiyar Mitra, an Indian aviation expert, to confirm that the wreckage he was showing as evidence was that of a Pakistani F-16.

Mr. Mitra embarrassed his host on live TV by debunking the claim and correctly stating that Pakistani F-16s are equipped with Pratt and Whitney engines and what the TV host was calling a Pakistani F-16 engine was made by a different manufacturer. Watch it here:

https://youtu.be/FJ8MmTvRZ8Q

In a recent airing of 'The Debate' on Republic World TV, host Arnab Goswami invited Indian analyst General G.D. Bakshi and PTI spokesperson Abdul Samad Yaqoob — to represent Pakistan.

Goswami to Yaqoob: "You go and check today ... on the fifth floor of the Serena Hotel, I am telling you, please check, fifth floor of the Serena Hotel in Kabul, how many Pakistani army officers are there?"

Yaqoob: " "What I got to know from my sources [is that] Serena has only two floors. There are no third, fourth or fifth floors." Watch it here:

https://youtu.be/9ZQ1NttzbZE

India with its massive disinformation campaign against Pakistan, as recently revealed by EU Disinfo Lab, appears to be following what a US think tank RAND calls "Firehose of Falsehood" propaganda model. It has over 750 fake media outlets covering 119 countries. There are over 750 domain names, some in the name of dead people and others using stolen identities. Pakistani policymakers charged with countering the Indian propaganda should read the RAND report "Firehose of Falsehoods" for its 5 specific recommendations to the US government to effectively respond to the Russian disinformation campaign. In particular they should heed its key advice: "All other things being equal, messages received in greater volume and from more sources will be more persuasive.......Don't expect to counter Russia's firehose of falsehood with the squirt gun of truth. Instead, put raincoats on those at whom the firehose is aimed"

Pakistan-China-Russia vs India-Japan-US

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Friday, April 28, 2023

China-Pakistan: Beijing to "Further Deepen and Expand" Ties, Support Pak "Financial Stability"

Top Chinese officials have committed to “further deepen and expand” ties with Pakistan at meetings at the highest levels between the military and civilian leaderships of the two nations. Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang assured Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of his country's support for Pakistan's "financial stability". Also in the news this week is a Chinese government commission report recommending the construction of a 3,000 kilometer long railway link between China and Pakistan at an estimated cost of $57.7 billion, making it the most expensive infrastructure project in the Chinese-sponsored Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to date. The railroad will connect Pakistan's Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea with the western Chinese city of Kashgar in Xinjiang province. This appears to be a part of the Chinese response to the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy which Beijing sees threatening its interests in the region. Will India allow itself be used as a US proxy against China? Will the US-China rivalry force India and Pakistan to choose sides as it plays out in South Asia? Will China's assistance now push Pakistan further into the Chinese camp?

US-India Ties:

US President Joseph R. Biden is pursuing close strategic ties with Indian Prime Minister Modi. The false rhetoric of "democracy" and "shared values" is often used to disguise Washington's true intent to use India to counter China's rise as a global superpower. Meanwhile, China with its long land border with India has warned New Delhi that it "will be the biggest victim" of the US proxy war against China. In a recent Op Ed in Global Times, considered a mouthpiece of the Beijing government, Professor Guo Bingyun has wrote as follows:

"Inducing some countries to become US' proxies has been Washington's tactic to maintain its world hegemony since the end of WWII. It does not care about the gains and losses of these proxies. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a proxy war instigated by the US. The US ignores Ukraine's ultimate fate, but by doing so, the US can realize the expansion of NATO, further control the EU, erode the strategic advantages of Western European countries in climate politics and safeguard the interests of US energy groups. It is killing four birds with one stone......If another armed conflict between China and India over the border issue breaks out, the US and its allies will be the biggest beneficiaries, while India will be the biggest victim. Since the Cold War, proxies have always been the biggest victims in the end".

US-Pakistan Ties:

After assuming office as President of the United States, Joe Biden called many world leaders. But he did not bother to call then Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, nor has he made a call to the current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. This has sent a clear signal to Islamabad that Washington doesn't see it as important. This prompted Brookings' Bruce Reidel and Madiha Afzal to write: "Biden did not call Khan while he was prime minister. Last fall, we argued he should. Khan in turn declined to attend Biden’s Summit for Democracy. The White House should call Shahbaz Sharif".

Madiha Afzal of Brookings Institution again reminded Biden this year that "Pakistan, the fifth-largest country in the world and a nuclear-armed nation, ought to be seen by the United States on its own terms and not through the prism of its neighbors. A cold shoulder risks pushing Pakistan further toward China — which is neither an inevitable nor desirable outcome for the United States".

CPEC and BRI

CPEC Transforming Pakistan:

Back in 2018, former US Ambassador to Pakistan Richard G. Olson wrote in a New York Times Op Ed titled "How Not to Engage With Pakistan" that "(CPEC's) magnitude and its transformation of parts of Pakistan dwarf anything the United States has ever undertaken". Olson went on to warn the Trump Administration that "Without Pakistani cooperation, our (US) army in Afghanistan risks becoming a beached whale". Among the parts of Pakistan transformed by China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are some of the least developed regions in Balochistan and Sindh, specifically Gwadar and Thar Desert.

Source: China Daily

Pakistan's Economic Crisis:

Some blame Pakistan's current balance of payments crisis on Chinese debt taken on to fund CPEC projects. The evidence does not support this. The fact is that Pakistan failed to grow its exports while its imports boomed for over 5 years on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's watch from 2013-2018. It forced Pakistan to seek an IMF bailout which came with its own tough conditions to compel economic reforms and greater fiscal discipline. Geopolitics has also played a role in it. The Ukraine War pushed the energy and other commodity prices higher, exacerbating Pakistan's trade deficits. At the same time, the Biden administration has shown little support for Pakistan's bailout by the IMF. China's latest commitment to support "Pakistan's financial stability" will help, pushing Pakistan further into the Chinese camp.

Here's a Wall Street Journal video on US-China Rivalry and Pakistan:

https://youtu.be/wvw-85CC1t4

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

India Emerges the Biggest Winner of Ukraine War, US-China Rivalry

Can Washington Trust Modi as a Key Ally Against China?

Ukraine Resists Russia Alone: A Tale of West's Broken Promises

Ukraine's Lesson For Pakistan: Never Give Up Nuclear Weapons

US-China Battle For Influence in Pakistan

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Indian Diplomat on Pakistan's "Resilience", "Strategic CPEC"

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Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Sunday, April 23, 2023

Digital Pakistan 2023: Technology Transforming Women's Lives in Rural Pakistan

Growing access to smartphones and Internet connectivity is transforming the lives of women in rural Pakistan. They are acquiring knowledge, accessing healthcare and finding economic opportunities. A recent UNDP report titled "DigitAll: What happens when women of Pakistan get access to digital and tech tools? A lot!" written by Javeria Masood describes the socioeconomic impact of technology in Pakistan in the following words:

"The world as we know it has been and is rapidly changing. Technology has proven to be one of the biggest enablers of change. There has been a significant emphasis on digital trainings, tech education, and freelancing in the last several years especially during the pandemic, through initiatives from the government, private and development sectors. Covid-19 acted as a big disrupter and accelerated the digital uptake many folds. In Pakistan, we saw the highest number of digital wallets, online services, internet-based services and adaptability out of need and demand".

Pakistani Women in South Punjab. Photo by Shuja Hakim UNDP Pakistan

Digital Transformation:

The report cites the example of Ayesha Abushakoor from Zawar Wala in South Punjab who is a Quran teacher. She is teaching students remotely in and outside Pakistan. She uses digital wallets to receive payments. The same report also cites the case of Samina, from Muzafargharh, who is getting training online to start a livestock business. Another woman Mujahida Perveen from UC Pega in Dera Ghazi Khan is managing her thyroid disease by watching YouTube videos.

Telehealth is helping more women access healthcare in remote areas of Pakistan. Startups like Sehat Kahani are employing women doctors who work from home to provide healthcare services. Sehat Kahani was founded by Dr. Sara Khurram and Dr. Iffat Zafar who raised seed funding of US$ 500,000 in 2018, followed by a pre-series of $1 million in March 2021.

Expansion of Digital Services:

The year 2022 was a very rough year for Pakistan. The nation was hit by devastating floods that badly affected tens of millions of people. Macroeconomic indicators took a nose dive as political instability reached new heights. In the middle of such bad news, Pakistan saw installation of thousands of kilometers of new fiber optic cable, inauguration of a new high bandwidth PEACE submarine cable connecting Karachi with Africa and Europe, and millions of new broadband subscriptions. Broadband penetration among 140 million (59% of 236 million population) Pakistanis in the 15-64 years age group reached almost 90%. This new digital infrastructure helped grow technology adoption in the country.

Internet and Mobile Phone Banking Growth in 2021-22. Source: State Bank of Pakistan

Fintech:

Mobile phone banking and internet banking grew by 141.1% to Rs. 11.9 trillion while Internet banking jumped 81.1% to reach Rs10.2 trillion. E-commerce transactions also accelerated, witnessing similar trends as the volume grew by 107.4% to 45.5 million and the value by 74.9% to Rs106 billion, according to the State Bank of Pakistan.

Pakistan Startup Funding in 2022. Source: i2i Investing

Fintech startups continued to draw investments in the midst of a slump in venture funding in Pakistan. Fintech took $10 million from a total of $13.5 million raised by tech startups in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the data of Invest2Innovate (i2i), a startups consultancy firm. In Q3 of 2022, six out of the 14 deals were fintech startups, compared to two deals of e-commerce startups. Fintech startups raised $38 million which is 58% of total funding ($65 million) in Q3 2022, compared to e-commerce startups that raised 19% of total funding. The i2i data shows that in Q3 2022, fintech raised 37.1% higher than what it raised in Q2 2022 ($27.7 million). Similarly, in Q2 2022, the total investment of fintech was 63% higher compared to what it raised in Q1 2022 ($17 million).

E-Commerce in Pakistan. Source: State Bank of Pakistan

E-Commerce:

E-commerce continued to grow in the country. Transaction volume soared 107.4% to 45.5 million while the value of transactions jumped 75% to Rs. 106 billion over the prior year, according to the State Bank of Pakistan.

Pakistan Among World's Top 10 Smartphone Markets. Source: NewZoo

PEACE Cable:

Pakistan and East Africa Connecting Europe (PEACE) cable, a 96 TBPS (terabits per second), 15,000 km long submarine cable, went live in 2022. It brought to 10 the total number of submarine cables currently connecting or planned to connect Pakistan with the world: TransWorld1, Africa1 (2023), 2Africa (2023), AAE1, PEACE, SeaMeWe3, SeaMeWe4, SeaMeWe5, SeaMeWe6 (2025) and IMEWE. PEACE cable has two landing stations in Pakistan: Karachi and Gwadar. SeaMeWe stands for Southeast Asia Middle East Western Europe, while IMEWE is India Middle East Western Europe and AAE1 Asia Africa Europe 1.

Mobile Data Consumption Growth in Pakistan. Source: ProPakistan

Fiber Optic Cable:

The first phase of a new high bandwidth long-haul fiber network has been completed jointly by One Network, the largest ICT and Intelligent Traffic and Electronic Tolling System operator in Pakistan, and Cybernet, a leading fiber broadband provider. The joint venture has deployed 1,800 km of fiber network along motorways and road sections linking Karachi to Hyderabad (M-9 Motorway), Multan to Sukkur (M-5 Motorway), Abdul Hakeem to Lahore (M-3 Motorway), Swat Expressway (M-16), Lahore to Islamabad (M-2 Motorway) and separately from Lahore to Sialkot (M-11 Motorway), Gujranwala, Daska and Wazirabad, according to Business Recorder newspaper.

Mobile telecom service operator Jazz and Chinese equipment manufacturer Huawei have commercially deployed FDD (Frequency Division Duplexing) Massive MIMO (Multiple Input and Output) solution based on 5G technology on a large scale in Pakistan. Jazz and Huawei claim it represents a leap into the 4.9G domain to boost bandwidth.

Pakistan Telecom Indicators November 2022. Source: PTA

Pakistan's RAAST P2P System Taking Off. Source: State Bank of Pakistan

Broadband Subscriptions:

Pakistan has 124 million broadband subscribers as of November, 2022, according to Pakistan Telecommunications Authority. Broadband penetration among 140 million (59% of 236 million) Pakistanis in 15-64 years age bracket is 89%. Over 20 million mobile phones were locally manufactured/assembled in the country in the first 11 months of the year.

Bank Account Ownership in Pakistan. Source: Karandaaz

Financial Inclusion Doubled In Pakistan in 5 Years. Source: Karandaaz

Documenting Pakistan Economy:

Pakistan's unbanked population is huge, estimated at 100 million adults, mostly women. Its undocumented economy is among the world's largest, estimated at 35.6% which represents approximately $542 billion at GDP PPP levels, according to World Economics. The nation's tax to GDP ratio (9.2%) and formal savings rates (12.72%) are among the lowest. The process of digitizing the economy could help reduce the undocumented economy and increase tax collection and formal savings and investment in more productive sectors such as export-oriented manufacturing and services. Higher investment in more productive sectors could lead to faster economic growth and larger export earnings. None of this can be achieved without some semblance of political stability.

India's Female Labor Participation Rate Drops to 19%, Below Pakistan's 21%

2021: A Banner Year For Tech Startups in Pakistan

Pakistan Projected to Be World's 6th Largest Economy By 2075

Digital Pakistan 2022: Broadband Penetration Soars to 90% of 15+ Population

Working Women Seeding a Silent Revolution in Pakistan

Socioeconomic Impact of New Infrastructure in Rural Pakistan

Pakistan Gets First Woman Supreme Court Judge

Pakistan at 75

Growing Presence of Pakistani Women in Science and Technology

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Saturday, April 15, 2023

Pakistan is the Second Biggest Source of Foreign Doctors in US and UK

When US Ambassador Richard Holbrooke suffered a massive heart attack in 2010, the doctors who responded to this emergency were both foreign: one from India and the other from Pakistan. Dr. Farzad Najam, a graduate of King Edward Medical College in Lahore, was the chief heart surgeon at George Washington University Hospital at the time. Dr. Monica Mukherjee, a junior cardiologist at the hospital, assisted Dr. Najam in the operating theater. This episode illustrates the high profile presence of South Asian doctors in the United States.

Doctor Brain Drain. Source: Statista

More recently, Dr. Mansoor Mohiuddin, a 1989 graduate of Karachi's Dow Medical College, made global headlines when he implanted a pig heart in a patient at University of Maryland School of Medicine. Considered one of the world’s foremost experts on transplanting animal organs, known as xenotransplantation, Muhammad M. Mohiuddin, MD, Professor of Surgery at UMSOM, joined the UMSOM faculty five years ago and established the Cardiac Xenotransplantation Program with Dr. Griffith. Dr. Mohiuddin serves as the program’s Scientific/Program Director and Dr. Griffith as its Clinical Director.

Top Countries of Origin of Foreign Doctors in the US. Source: OECD

The pervasive presence of South Asian doctors in the United States is confirmed by OECD (Organization for Cooperation and Development) statistics on foreign doctors in OECD member nations. While India has remained the top source of foreign doctors since 2013, Pakistan has moved up from third to second spot in this period. As of 2016, there were 45,830 Indian doctors and 12,454 Pakistani doctors among 215,630 foreign doctors in the United States. India (45,830) and Pakistan (12,454) are followed by Grenada (10,789), Philippines (10,217), Dominica (9,974), Mexico (9,923), Canada (7,765), Dominican Republic (6,269), China (5,772), UAE (4,635) and Egypt (4,379).

In percentage terms, 21% of foreign doctors come from India, 6% from Pakistan, 5% each from Grenada, Philippines and Dominica and 4% from Mexico.

Pie Chart of Origins of Foreign Medical Graduates in US. Source: OECD

Many of these "foreign doctors" are US citizens, born and raised in the United States, who travel abroad to study at foreign medical schools. Their reasons vary from ease of admissions to lower costs. This is particularly true of the medical schools in the Caribbean nations.

Many Caribbean nations have established medical schools to especially cater to the demand from the United States. In 2007, Pakistan, too, set up Dow International Medical College as part of Dow University of Health Science (DUHS).

Indians and Pakistanis also make up the top two nationalities among 66,211 foreign doctors in the United Kingdom. There are 18,953 doctors from India, 8,026 from Pakistan, 4.880 from Nigeria and 4,471 from Egypt in the UK.

The list of 25,400 foreign doctors in Canada is topped by South Africans (2,604) followed by Indians (2,127), Irish (1,942), British (1,923), Americans (1,263) and Pakistanis (1,087).

There are 25,607 Pakistani medical school graduates currently working in all of the OECD member countries which are considered the rich industrialized nations. These Pakistani doctors account for 10.6% of 242,000 Pakistan-trained doctors practicing now. 74,455 Indian doctors working in OECD nations make up 7.3% of about 1,020,000 of all India-trained doctors in practice.

In spite of losing 10.6% of its doctors to "brain drain" compared to India's 7.3%, Pakistan still has more doctors per capita (1.1 per 1000 population) than India (0.7 doctors per 1000 population), according to the World Bank. Pakistani medical colleges admit 16,000 students a year compared to 92,000 in India.

As the populations age and demand for medical services grows in the West, more and more of it is being met by recruiting health care workers, including doctors and nurses, from the developing world.

Tuesday, April 11, 2023

Silicon Valley NEDians Sponsoring Free Software Bootcamp in Pakistan

Pakistan has seen several boot camps started in recent years to respond to growing demand for practical tech training in the country. Two of my fellow NED University alumni in Silicon Valley - Saeed Kazmi and Idris Kothari - are "helping an initiative in Pakistan with a company xLoop Digital (www.xloopdigital.com), to provide advanced software Bootcamp training to fresh grads in computer science and engineering". Idris and Saeed are senior NEDians who graduated from our alma mater in early 1970s. I have personally known them since the early1980s when I first arrived in the San Francisco Bay Area. Both have solid track records as successful tech entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley. Here are excerpts of their email sent to me on the subject:

"The training center is located in Karachi . The first batch started in November 22. Currently, we have about 50 developers under training in two tracks -1. Cloud Native Software Development, 2. Data Sciences/Engineering. The Bootcamp training is provided by www.emeritus.org , a U.S. based company. This is a 16-week program that includes 12 weeks of technical training provided by live on-line, U.S. based instructors, and 4 weeks of soft-skills training. ..... Most of these bootcamps are free of cost however few charge a nominal fee of PKR 10,000 + for every month. In U.S. such Bootcamp costs around $15,000, however we are offering it for free. The only requirement is passing our entry test. We also provide pickup – drop transportation to students...... .The first batch graduated recently, and we are looking to outsource the talent in the U.S. These developers are ready to be interviewed by interested clients".

Skills Taught at Typical Coding Bootcamp. Source: DICE

Those accepted for the Xloopdigital bootcamp are given a stipend of Rs. 10,000 a month and offered other benefits such as free transport and outpatient medical reimbursements during training. Upon successful completion of the bootcamp, Xloop offers a 2-year guaranteed employment to all trainees with highly competitive salary and benefits.

What is coding boot camp? It is a technical training program designed to teach the programming skills that employers are currently looking for. Technology is constantly changing. It is important for those looking for work in the tech industry to continue to learn and update their skills. Coding boot camps offer short, intensive training courses to help employees and job candidates to meet the needs of employers. They fill the gaps in skillsets of new college graduates to enhance their employability.

Not all boot camps are alike. It is important to do due diligence before signing up for a boot camp. Some of the questions that come to mind when choosing a boot camp are: 1. How long is the program and how much does it cost? 2. What is its job placement record? 3. Is there a verifiable estimate of the average earnings of its graduates? 4. What is unique about the boot camp you are considering signing up for? How does it compare with other tech bootcamps?

Let me conclude by quoting Nate Swanner's sound advice on selecting bootcamps: "Remember, there’s no timeline for starting your journey, and nothing saying you must attend a bootcamp to learn tech. What matters is your drive and enthusiasm: two things you just can’t learn in a bootcamp".

Unprecedented Tech Boom in Pakistan

NED Alum Raises $190 Million to Challenge ARM's Dominance

Pakistan Broadband Subscriptions Pass 100 Million

NED University Ranked Among World's Top 200 For Impact

Pakistan's Computer Services Exports Jump 26% Amid Coronavirus Lockdown

Pakistan Gig Economy Among World's Fastest Growing

NED Alum Sells Silicon Valley Company For $7.5 Billion

Pakistan's Demographic Dividend

Over a Million Pakistani University Students Enrolled in STEM Education

State Bank Targets Fully Digital Economy in Pakistan

NED University Alum Raises $100 Million For His Silicon Valley Fintech Startup

Digital Pakistan: Broadband Penetration Reaches 90% of 15+ Population

E-Commerce in Pakistan

2021: A Banner Year For Pakistani Tech Startups

NED Alum's AI Startup Startup Named Most Innovative at RSA Conference

Karachi-Born NED Alum Leads Mercedes' Entry into Electric Vehicle Market

AI Research Funded by NED Alum at His Alma Mater

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni: Pakistani Social Network

Saturday, April 1, 2023

Venture Capital in Pakistan: Startup Funding Rises in Q1 2023 After Hitting Lows in Q4 2022

Pakistani startups raised $23.1 million in the first quarter of this year after hitting a low of $15.2 million in the last quarter of 2022, according to Data Darbar. The amount of money raised by Pakistani startups increased in each of the first 3 months of 2023, bringing the total funding amount to $945.4 million across 321 deals since 2015. It started out slow with just $1.5 million raised in January, followed by $8.7 million in February and $12.9 million in March. Most of the money went for seed or pre-seed stage companies.

Pakistan Startup Funding Trend. Source: Data Darbar

Six of the eight deals in Q1/2023 involved seed stage. The pre-seed and accelerator rounds were never disclosed and aren’t, therefore, reflected in the numbers. The lion's share of the investments this year went to logistics ($10.1 million) and fintech ($9 million) startups with the two sectors drawing about $10 million each. Education technology (Edtech) startup Maqsad raised $2.8 million.

Deal Flow in Q1/2023. Source: I2I Ventures

In terms of gender, a little over 70% of the money raised in Q1/2023 went to male-founded startups and about 30% to female-founded companies. In Q1 2022, international angels accounted only for 9% (8 investors out of 89) of total investors across disclosed deals. In Q1 2023 they made up 26% (7 investors out of 27), according to Shehryar Hydri, a managing partner at Deosai Ventures. Here are the details of the Q1/2023 deals:

Pakistan Deal Flow. Source: Data Darbar

There has been a global slowdown in venture funding of startups amid concerns about uncertain economic conditions due to the Ukraine War, high inflation and rising interest rates. Pakistan, too, is heavily impacted. The nation is dealing with political instability and economic uncertainty.

Unprecedented Tech Boom in Pakistan

PakAlumni: Pakistani Social Network

Tuesday, March 28, 2023

Can British Pakistani Humza Yousaf Lead Scotland to Independence?

British Pakistani Humza Yousaf, 37, has made history. He has become the first Muslim to lead Scotland after winning the election of the Scottish National Party (SNP) to succeed Nicola Sturgeon. He is also the youngest person to be elected First Minister of Scotland. Humza's father was born in Pakistan and his mother in Kenya. "We should all take pride in the fact that today we have sent a clear message, that your color of skin, your faith, is not a barrier to leading the country we all call home", he declared in his victory speech. Back in 2016, he took the oath as a member of the Scottish parliament in Urdu, Pakistan's national language. Currently, there are 5 members of Pakistani origin serving in the Scottish Parliament and 29 in the British Parliament.

Scottish Leader Humza Yousaf

Scottish Independence:

He has vowed to lead his nation to independence from Britain, now led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, a British Indian. Channel 4 News quoted him as saying: "we will be the next generation that delivers independence of Scotland." The people of Scotland need independence now more than ever", he added. Here's an excerpt of his victory speech:

"To those in Scotland who don’t yet share the passion I do for independence, I will aim to earn your trust by continuing to govern well, and earn your respect as First Minister by focussing on the priorities that matter to us all, and in doing so using our devolved powers to absolute maximum effect to tackle the challenges of the day. For those of us who do believe in independence, we will only win by making the case on the doorsteps. My solemn commitment to you is that I will kickstart our grassroots, civic-led movement and ensure our drive for independence is in 5th gear".

60% of Scots Voted Against Brexit. Source: New York Times

Scots Against Brexit:

Recent YouGov poll shows that only 39% of Scottish voters support independence, while 47% wish to remain with the United Kingdom. Can Yousaf persuade more voters to support his goal of independence? He knows that an overwhelming majority of Scots voted against Brexit. This creates an opportunity based on the economic benefits of leaving the UK to join the European Union (EU). Ireland is a good example of a small country enjoying the huge benefits of access to the large European market. Ireland is now significantly wealthier than the UK. Many big American companies have established significant presence in the Irish Republic to gain access to the EU market. They have created jobs, increased the tax base and brought technology to the Republic of Ireland.

British Pakistani MPs. Source: Geo News

British Pakistani MPs and Peers:

There are 15 British Pakistani members of the House of Commons, and 14 in the House of Lords, the upper house of the British Parliament, bringing the total strength of British Pakistanis in the UK parliament to 29. Most of them are from very humble backgrounds in rural Pakistan. Majority of Pakistanis in the UK are from Mirpur and its surrounding villages in Azad Kashmir. They or their parents migrated to Britain when they were given compensation by the Pakistani government for their land to make way for the building of the massive Mangla Dam after the signing of the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan in 1960. Five of the twelve British Pakistani MPs in the new parliament are from Azad Kashmir.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan:

In 2016, Sadiq Khan was elected as mayor of London, making him the first Muslim mayor of a major western capital city. Mayor Sadiq Khan is also of Pakistani-origin. Khan's father migrated to Britain in the 1960s and worked as a London bus driver. Khan comes from a family of two generations of immigrants: His grandparents migrated from what is now India to the newly created state of Pakistan in 1947 and his parents migrated from Karachi to London in 1969. Sadiq Khan was born in London in 1970.

British Pakistanis' Struggles:

While the British Pakistanis have made some headway in the public sector in their new home, they continue to face discrimination, particularly in the private sector. A 2016 study by the government’s Social Mobility Commission found that the "children of Bangladeshi and Pakistani origin in Britain have outperformed other ethnic groups to achieve rapid improvements at every level of education, but are significantly less likely to be employed in managerial or professional jobs than their white counterparts".

The study said that the "minority ethnic pupils (including Pakistanis) are outperforming white working class children in English tests throughout school, with white British teenagers coming bottom of the pile in the subject at GCSE level".

Pakistani Doctors in the West:

Pakistani doctors make up the third largest source of practicing physicians and surgeons in the United States. Pakistan is also the second largest source of doctors of foreign origin serving in the United Kingdom, according to OECD. Indians make up 34% of the foreign doctors in Britain, followed by 11% from Pakistan.

Here's a video of Humza Yousaf taking oath as member of Scottish Parliament in Urdu:

https://youtu.be/NE_J8wzo6ko