Saturday, May 14, 2022

Bridge Collapse Amid Heat Wave in Pakistan Raises Fears of Massive Glacier Melt Flooding

Record-high temperatures in Pakistan caused Shisper glacier to melt rapidly, triggering the collapse of the Hassanabad Bridge along the Karakoram Highway last week.  With 7,253 known glaciers, Pakistan is home to more glacial ice than any other country on earth outside the polar regions. If these start melting in increasingly severe heat waves, there could be massive flooding in the country. Pakistan is among the most vulnerable to climate change. 

Hasanabad Bridge Collapse in Pakistan

India and Pakistan have been hit by a severe heat wave very early this summer.  Jacobabad, a city in Sindh province, hit 122ºF (50ºC) in April, one of the highest April temperatures recorded in the world. Dadu, another city in Sindh, recorded 117ºF (47ºC). "This is the first time in decades that Pakistan is experiencing what many call a 'spring-less year," Pakistan's Minister of Climate Change, Sherry Rehman said in a statement. The consequences of rising temperatures in South Asia could be very severe, ranging from crop losses, food shortages and floods. 

Record High Temperature in Jacobabad, Pakistan

Pakistan's contribution to global carbon emissions is less than 1% but it is still ranked among countries most vulnerable to climate change. The energy-hungry nation needs help to finance climate-friendly  development of clean energy sources and climate-resilient infrastructure. Last year at COP26 conference in Glasgow, Pakistan provided its NDCs 2021 (national determined contribution 2021) to the United Nations ahead. Some of Pakistan's NDC targets are voluntary while others are contingent upon the receipt of financial assistance from the rich nations most responsible for the climate crisis. Some of Pakistan's solution are nature-based such as its Billion Tree Afforestation Project (BTAP) while others require significant increase in low-carbon energy from wind, solar, hydro and nuclear.  

Pakistan NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) For Climate Goals. Source: UN

 Malik Amin Aslam, former Prime Minister Imran Khan's special assistant on climate change, said in an interview with CNN that his country is seeking to change its energy mix to favor green.  He said Pakistan's 60% renewable energy target would be based on solar, wind and hydro power projects, and 40% would come from hydrocarbon and nuclear which is also low-carbon. “Nuclear power has to be part of the country’s energy mix for future as a zero energy emission source for clean and green future,” he concluded. Here are the key points Aslam made to Becky Anderson of CNN:

1. Pakistan wants to be a part of the solution even though it accounts for less than 1% of global carbon emissions. . Extreme weather events are costing Pakistan significant losses of lives and property.

2. Pakistan is among the countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. 

3. Pakistan is moving towards renewable energy by converting 60% of its energy mix to renewable by 2030. Electric vehicle (EV) transition is also beginning in his country. 

4. Aslam said:  “We are one of the world leaders on nature based solutions. However, the World Bank (WB) in its Report yesterday came up with really good numbers in a comparison done of countries who are shifting their mainstream development towards environment friendly policies and Pakistan came atop among them,” the SAPM explained. 

Pakistan Power Generation Fuel Mix. Source: Third Pole

Here's a video of Malik Amin Aslam's interview with CNN's Becky Anderson:


samir sardana said...

Pakistan needs to exponentially increase the Wind capacity

Pakistani WInd farms,are set up by conglomerates,who can set off the accelerated depreciation,on the wind project,per se, as the farm is set up,as part of an existing industry,or by merging the brought forward tax assessed losses of the wind farm,or by a tax provision,which allows the depreciation of a WInd-SPV, to be offset with the taxable profits of the holding company.


Pakistan has to bring in foreign capital.In many parts of the US/EU,people do not want Wind,and also,in sub zero temperatures,like in Texas,the Wind energy is a flop.

These investors need wind corridors,in hot and humid zones,in high cost power grids,with no humans or agri or plantations.

Pakistan is the ideal bet for them.

Treat Wind power as a Deemed Export (as you save imported oil and gas)- allow capital goods imports at Nil duty,and a tax holiday for 10 years - with the year of start of the holiday,to be chosen by the farm at any time,in the 1st 5 years.In addition,maximum repatriation of profits and affix the tarriff in USD - as a proxy to imported oil and gas - so that the investors is insulated from PKR-USD.

Based on deemed exports - refund all indirect taxes or allow the wind farm to TRANSFER THE INDIRECT TAX PAID by the wind farm on purchases - to any Pakistani,who can use 85% of the tax as a VAT input credit.

To obviate the need for spinning power to offset wind-solar variations,better to provide incentives to farm,as the wind-solar hybrids,can be used to perpetually pump water - even where the water table in deep.Once the water comes out - THE ENTIRE ECONOMIC CYCLE STARTS.


Thw issue is NOT that the land of the wind farms,is to be used for SPV farms or CSP or agri - USE THEM FOR ALL THREE ! IF WATER REACHES BALOCHISTAN - IT WILL BECOME A BRAZIL/ARGENTINA (IN TERMS OF AGRI).dindooohindoo

Riaz Haq said...

Heatwave across Pakistan is creating a major health crisis with mercury shooting as high as 51 degrees Celsius in Jacobabad, Sindh on Saturday.

Citing The News, Geo News reported that numerous cases of acute kidney injury (AKI) caused by heatstroke, acute water diarrhoea and gastroenteritis have been reported from all over the country, especially Sindh and Punjab as extremely hot weather scorches these areas.

Residents said that prolonged drought and unavailability of clean water are compelling people to drink contaminated water to beat the heat.

Unconfirmed reports suggest at least three people died of acute water diarrhoea in a remote area of Sindh, Kaccha, in Dadu as the temperature rose to 49°Celsius, reported Geo News.

Director Gambat Institute of Medical Sciences (GIMS) Dr Rahim Bux Bhatti said patients with AKI, acute gastroenteritis and other symptoms of heatstroke due to prolonged exposure to the sun are being brought to their heatstroke camp.

"The entire area is in the grip of an intense heatwave for the last few days," he said while speaking to The News.

Director-General Health, Sindh, Dr Jumman Bahoto, said there were some 'confirmed' reports of deaths and sickness due to heatstroke and waterborne diseases in some cities and towns of the province, which were experiencing an intense heatwave these days, adding that he had directed all the District Health Officers (DHOs) to collect data as well as establish heat stroke camps in their jurisdiction, reported Geo News.

"A rise in the cases of acute watery diarrhoea and other waterborne illnesses are being reported from Dadu's remote areas while some cases of heatstroke have also been reported as temperature shot up to 51° Celsius in some areas of the province. We have issued directives to the health authorities to establish heatstroke camps, provide clean drinking water and ORS to patients and provide timely medical treatment to them," DG Health Sindh added.

As daytime temperatures became unbearable in many cities of Punjab, health authorities said many traffic wardens and common people who remained exposed to sunlight in Lahore had acute kidney injuries due to dehydration. They were taken to different city health facilities, including Jinnah Hospital Lahore for treatment.

"Dozens of people, especially traffic wardens in Lahore, fainted due to dehydration over long exposure to sunlight in the intense heat and they were shifted to different hospitals. We have decided to distribute umbrellas and awareness pamphlets among people in Lahore to prevent them from permanent disability and death due to heatstroke," eminent physician and Vice-Chancellor of University of Health Sciences (UHS) Lahore Prof Javed Akram said.

The National Institute of Health (NIH), Islamabad, also warned of an increase in the cases of heatstroke and water-borne diseases due to extremely high temperatures in different parts of the country, saying heatstroke is a medical emergency and proves fatal if not managed properly, reported Geo News.

"A dehydrated person may not be able to sweat fast enough to dissipate heat, which also causes the body temperature to rise. Common signs and symptoms of heatstroke are hot and dry skin or profuse sweating with hot red or flushed dry skin, weakness/lethargy, throbbing headache, elevated body temperature, irritability, dizziness, decrease urine output, heat rash (red cluster of pimples or small blisters)," an advisory issued by the NIH in the wake of intense heatwave said.

Riaz Haq said...

#India bans #wheat #exports as #heatwave hurts crop, domestic prices soar. India is not among world's top wheat exporters but its ban could drive global prices to new peaks given already tight supply, hitting poor consumers in #Asia and #Africa. #Modi #BJP

The officials added that there was no dramatic fall in wheat output this year, but unregulated exports had led to a rise in local prices.
"We don't want wheat trade to happen in an unregulated manner or hoarding to happen," commerce secretary BVR Subrahmanyam told reporters in New Delhi.
Although not one of the world's top wheat exporters, India's ban could drive global prices to new peaks given already tight supply, hitting poor consumers in Asia and Africa particularly hard.
"The ban is shocking," a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm said. "We were expecting curbs on exports after two to three months, but it seems like the inflation numbers changed the government's mind."
Rising food and energy prices pushed India's annual retail inflation near an eight-year high in April, strengthening expectations that the central bank would raise interest rates more aggressively.
Wheat prices in India have risen to record highs, in some spot markets hitting 25,000 rupees ($320) per tonne, well above the government's minimum support price of 20,150 rupees.

Rising fuel, labor, transportation and packaging costs are also boosting the price of wheat flour in India.
"It was not wheat alone. The rise in overall prices raised concerns about inflation and that's why the government had to ban wheat exports," said another senior government official who asked not to be named as discussions about export curbs were private. "For us, it's abundance of caution."

India this week outlined its record export target for the fiscal year that started on April 1, saying it would send trade delegations to countries such as Morocco, Tunisia, Indonesia and the Philippines to explore ways to boost shipments.
In February, the government forecast production of 111.32 million tonnes, the sixth straight record crop, but it cut the forecast to 105 million tonnes in May.
A spike in temperatures in mid-March means the crop could instead be around 100 million tonnes or even lower, said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trading firm.
"The government's procurement has fallen more than 50%. Spot markets are getting far lower supplies than last year. All these things are indicating lower crop," the dealer said.

samir sardana said...

Global warming is not about bridge collapse and dehydration

It is a boom for fossil fuels and disaster for Agri,and nations with large number of people off agri

There is only 1 such nation - INDIA !

Floods are not the issue or that the melting snow and ice will loosen rocks - which will cause rocks to displace and landslides - which will DIVERT RIVERS !

But that is NOT the issue




Riaz Haq said...

Northern Hemisphere feeling the heat as #Pakistan hits staggering 51 C. Even #Canada is getting in on the heat action earlier this year, with #Ontario and #Quebec currently sizzling under a stretch of 30 C days. #climate #GlobalWarming via @YahooNews

With summer just around the corner, the Northern Hemisphere isn't waiting until June 21 for the heat to arrive.

On the other side of the globe, a blistering heat wave in Pakistan resulted in Jacobabad hitting 51°C on Saturday -- the hottest temperature on the planet so far this year, according to international meteorological experts. Australia’s average temperature has been recorded at 50.7°C. Other Pakistani cities came close to that number, though, with Shaheed Benazirabad and Nawabshah reaching 50.5°C while Moenjo Daro hit 50°C.

According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the temperatures were far above the average temperatures they typically see in May. In Jacobabad, for example, the average highest temperature in May is 43.8°C while the median for Shaheed Benazirabad and Mohenjodaro is 44.6°C and 44°C, respectively. Larkana's average for the month is 43.9°C and Dadu's is 44°C. With their averages sitting in the 40s, any daytime high that is 5-8°C above normal is adding insult to injury.

In addition to the 50-degree temperatures, Karachi recorded one of its hottest days in May in nearly a decade. According to PMD, the city reached 42.8°C on Saturday. The last time it was this hot in May occurred in 2018, when temperatures soared to 46°C.

It's not a one-time heat event, either. The past 60 days across the region have featured temperatures averaging 6°C above normal, making this spring particularly scorching.

Even Canada is getting in on the heat action, with Ontario and Quebec currently sizzling under a stretch of 30-degree days. An event that seems to be more unusual and anomalous for this part of the world at this time of the year, says Tyler Hamilton, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.

A strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern half of the country is responsible for the ongoing heat wave. According to MétéoMédia, there has been very few heat waves in recorded in Quebec during the month of May.

In fact, Friday saw temperatures reach up to 34°C in Saguenay, Que. -- making it the hottest-ever daytime high recorded in Quebec in the first half of May or earlier.

Canada's first 30-degree reading in 2022 was recorded on Tuesday in Moosonee, Ont., where it hit 30.2°C. Kapuskasing, Ont., was a close second this year -- scoring a daytime high of 30.1°C on the same day.

Riaz Haq said...

Trango Towers, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan.

There are some impressive and extremely difficult rock towers around the world, competing in being the hardest to climb. One of the more famous and possibly the group of peaks that would get the most votes for being the toughest is the Trango Tower Peaks. There are two main summits in the central part of the group: Great Trango Tower (6286m) and Nameless Tower (6230m) a.k.a. just Trango Tower.
The group is reasonable easy to access as it is located much closer to civilization than many other popular peaks in Pakistan. You would suspect a peak like Trango Tower is an expensive climb, but it isn’t. Like all other peaks in Pakistan the price tag on the permit is determined by the peak’s elevation and therefore Trango Tower comes at a very affordable price. More about this in the red tape section..
The peaks have some of the highest vertical faces on the planet and were for a long time some of the most coveted mountaineering challenges. It was not until 1975 the area opened for climbing and the race for the hard-to-reach summits began.

Great Trango Tower has three routes straight up the E/NE face and a couple of alpine routes on the NW and W sides of the peak. Nameless Tower has been climbed via many routes, which all are located on its SE and SW faces. It's said the quality of the granite is very good on both the main peaks as well as on the lesser peaks in the area.

Afzal's list of the peaks in the core group.

Trango Group have the following peaks:
1- Kruksum (S)6650-M
2- Kruksum (N)6600-M
3- Trango Ri (II)6515-M
4- Trango Ri (1) 6452-M
5- Kruksum (E) 6300-M
6- Trano Ri (III) 6300-M
7- Trano Ri (IV) 6300-M
8- Great Trango (I) 6286-M
9- Nameless Tower 6239-M
10-Great Trango (II) 6237-M
11-Great Trango (III) 6231-M
12-Munk 6150-M

Riaz Haq said...

Dawar Butt
FYI: Looks like the news about lower #Mango🥭 production in Punjab is false. Crisis averted… production is 1.45 million tonnes this year, compared to 1.32 million tonnes last year. Increase of 10% in South Punjab, overall increase of 9.8%.

Riaz Haq said...

Climate change swells odds of record India, Pakistan heatwaves
By Justin Rowlatt

Climate change makes record-breaking heatwaves in northwest India and Pakistan 100 times more likely, a Met Office study finds.

The region should now expect a heatwave that exceeds the record temperatures seen in 2010 once every three years.

Without climate change, such extreme temperatures would occur only once every 312 years, the Met Office says.

The report comes as forecasters say temperatures in north-west India could reach new highs in the coming days.

The extreme pre-monsoon heatwave the region has suffered in recent weeks eased a little after peak temperatures reached 51C in Pakistan on Saturday.

But the heat looks likely to build again towards the end of this week and into the weekend, the Met Office's Global Guidance Unit warns.

It says maximum temperatures are likely to reach 50C in some spots, with continued very high overnight temperatures.

"Spells of heat have always been a feature of the region's pre-monsoon climate during April and May," says Dr Nikos Christidis, who led the team responsible for today's study.

"However, our study shows that climate change is driving the heat intensity of these spells making record-breaking temperatures 100 times more likely."

The new study is based on the heatwave that gripped northwest India and Pakistan in April and May 2010 when the region experienced the highest combined April and May average temperature since 1900.

It attempts to estimate the extent to which climate change made that and future events more likely.

These "attribution studies" involve running computer simulations comparing how frequently a weather event is likely to occur in two scenarios.

One models the climate as it is today, the other a climate where the human influence on greenhouse gases and other drivers of climate change has been removed.

The scenarios are run through 14 different computer models and produce dozens of different simulations which are compared to work out how climate change has altered the probability of an event happening.

The Met Office used the same method to assess the impact of future climate change and warns that worse is to come.

If climate change follows the Met Office's central predictions, by the end of the century India and Pakistan can expect similarly high temperatures virtually every year, today's study suggests.

Riaz Haq said...

#Climate change is making record-breaking #heatwaves in #India & #Pakistan 100 times more likely. Jacobabad in Pakistan's Sindh province hit 51C (123.8F) on Sunday. In India, temperatures in the capital region of #Delhi surpassed 49C (120F) on Sunday.

Climate change has made the odds of a record-breaking heatwave hitting northwestern India and Pakistan 100 times more likely to happen, scientists said Wednesday, as the two countries experience high temperatures that are disrupting daily life.

In an analysis, climate scientists with the UK's Met Office found that the natural probability of a heatwave exceeding average temperatures from 2010 would be once in 312 years, but when climate change is factored in, the chances increase to once in every 3.1 years.
April and May in 2010 was used as a point of comparison because those months had the highest average temperatures since 1900.
Soaring temperatures in parts of Pakistan and India in recent weeks have forced schools to close, damaged crops, put pressure on energy supplies and kept residents indoors. It even prompted experts to question whether such heat is fit for human survival.

Jacobabad, one of the hottest cities in the world, in Pakistan's Sindh province, hit 51 degrees Celsius (123.8F) on Sunday, and 50C (122F) the day before. In neighboring India, temperatures in the capital region of Delhi surpassed 49C (120F) on Sunday.

An Indian farmer carries wheat crop harvested from a field on the outskirts of Jammu, India, on April 28, 2022 and the heatwave reduced yields.
The analysis also made projections, showing the frequency of such heatwaves in the region would increase to increase to once every 1.15 years by the end of the century.

"Spells of heat have always been a feature of the region's pre-monsoon climate during April and May. However, our study shows that climate change is driving the heat intensity of these spells making record-breaking temperatures 100 times more likely," said the Met Office's Nikos Christidis, who produced the analysis. "By the end of the century increasing climate change is likely to drive temperatures of these values on average every year."
India and Pakistan are highly vulnerable to the impacts of the climate crisis, particularly in terms of extreme heat.

Chandni Singh, from the IPCC, said earlier this month that there was a limit to how far humans could adapt to such heat, adding that the heatwave was "testing the limits of human survivability."
The scientists said that a new temperature record was likely to have been reached in the region during the recent heatwave.
Temperatures in the sub-continent have eased slightly in recent days, but the respite is likely to be short-lived, according to Paul Hutcheon, of the Met Office's Global Guidance Unit.

Riaz Haq said...

#Bloomberg Plans $242 Million #Investment in Clean #Energy to fund programs in #Bangladesh, #Brazil, #Colombia, #Kenya, #Mozambique, #Nigeria, #Pakistan, #SouthAfrica, #Turkey and #Vietnam. Success in these 10 nations will persuade others. #renewableenergy

Michael R. Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City, will announce a $242 million effort on Tuesday to promote clean energy in 10 developing countries.

The investment is part of Mr. Bloomberg’s push, announced last year, to shut down coal production in 25 countries and builds on his $500 million campaign to close every coal-fired power plant in the United States. The announcement is tied to a gathering this week in Rwanda hosted by Sustainable Energy for All, an international group working to increase access to electricity in the global south.

The money will fund programs in Bangladesh, Brazil, Colombia, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Pakistan, South Africa, Turkey and Vietnam. Representatives of Bloomberg Philanthropies and partner organizations, including Sustainable Energy for All and the ClimateWorks Foundation, said they would work with local governments and businesses to develop spending plans.

Helen Mountford, the president and chief executive of ClimateWorks, said that specific ways Mr. Bloomberg’s money could be spent include research and analysis, public education campaigns, clean energy pilot programs and buyout payments to close existing coal plants.

“Which strategies are appropriate for each country will really be guided by the in-country partners who know them best,” Ms. Mountford said. “The first approach is to identify the relevant strategies per country and to start to identify who can help to deliver those and move those forward and get the funding to the ground.”

Success in the 10 nations would demonstrate to other countries that renewable energy can help, not hinder, economic growth, Mr. Bloomberg said in an interview by email. “The alternative is to meet growing energy needs by burning more coal, which would have disastrous consequences for public health and for the battle against climate change,” he said.

Climate campaigns tend to focus on industrialized countries, which are responsible for the vast majority of greenhouse gas emissions. But many developing countries have rapidly growing populations and economies, and rapidly increasing energy needs. How nations meet those needs will be a major factor in whether the world can decarbonize fast enough to avoid the worst consequences of a warming planet.

Developing countries “haven’t reached their peak in the amount of energy they actually need,” said Damilola Ogunbiyi, chief executive of Sustainable Energy for All. “We have a unique opportunity to drive that energy source being renewable from the start instead of going back again in another 30 years and try and transition them out of unsustainable sources of power.”

Riaz Haq said...

With Iran’s help, fire in Balochistan’s chilgoza forest nearly put out

At least 90% of the fire that engulfed Balochistan’s Sherani forest has been put out after an Iranian firefighting aircraft having capacity of 50,000 litres of water has started operation to extinguish the flames.

The neighbouring country’s firefighter has the capacity of 50,000 litres of water and it has completed two rounds of the affected area since morning, Niaz Kakar, an official of the Balochistan Forest and Wildlife Department told Aaj News.

“The firefighter started operation on Monday and at least 70% of the flames were put off till yesterday,” he said. The helicopter is operating from Mianwali airbase as it is easier to refill the water from there, he added.

He said the teams of forest department were continuously monitoring the on ground area for any sparks that were left on the forest’s base.

Earlier, a spokesperson for the Iranian consulate in Quetta had said that the plane, Ilyushin 76, is the “biggest firefighter aircraft” in the world. The airplane would remain in Pakistan till the fire has been extinguished, the spokesperson added.

The fire has affected at least 10,700 acres of the forest that mainly comprises chilgoza (pine nut) trees ahead of the operation by the Iranian firefighter on Monday.

At least 10 to 12 villages are located in the forest in the Koh-e-Sulaiman mountain range that connects Balochistan to Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, social worker and tribal elder Malik Abdul Sattar told Aaj News.

The government has dispatched relief items, including beds, for the affected people but the goods have not arrived due to the difficult route leading to the villages, he added.

The trees belonged to three tribes of the area whose livelihood depended on chilgoza. “Their life line has been destroyed,” he added.

The fire started on May 10 in KP’s Dera Ismail Khan and the blaze moved towards Sherani district on May 13.

People who live in the forest tried to put out the fire but their “miscalculation” caused the loss of three lives. At least 10 people, including community members and forest department officials, were injured while battling the blaze.

The Balochistan Provincial Disaster Management Authority tweeted late Monday that local administration, army and FC personnel along with local volunteers and forest department workers remain engaged in relief activities. PDMA rescue team 1122 is also on alert, it added.