Wednesday, May 11, 2022

WHO: India's 4.7 Million Excess Deaths Account For Nearly One-Third of the Global COVID Death Toll

The World Health Organization estimates that India had 4.730 million COVID19-related  deaths in 2020-21, nearly a third of 15 million global excess deaths attributed to the pandemic. India is followed by Russia with 1.073 million deaths and Indonesia with 1.03 million deaths. The United States with 933,795 deaths and Brazil with 681,219 deaths round out the top 5 countries that suffered the heaviest losses of life believed to be related to the pandemic. Mexico (625,923 deaths), Peru (289,654 deaths), Turkey (264,279 deaths) Egypt (251,635 deaths) and South Africa (238,893 deaths) are ranked number 6 through 10 in the world for excess deaths in 2020-21 period. Although Pakistan too had 8 times the official figure, it still does not figure in WHO's top 10 list for total number of COVID deaths. 

Total Excess Deaths Recorded During the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020-21. Source: WHO

Excess deaths measure how many more people died than expected compared with previous years. Although it is difficult to say with certainty how many of these deaths were due to Covid, they can be considered a measure of the scale and toll of the pandemic, according to the BBC. 

Although the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi disputes the WHO estimates, the scenes of desperation and death all over India, including the streets of major cities during the pandemic, offer significant anecdotal evidence to support the WHO claim. Although Pakistan too had 8 times the official figure, it still does not figure in WHO's top 10 list for total number of COVID deaths. 

List of Countries with excess deaths during COVID19 pandemic. Source: WHO

Prime Minister Modi's mishandling of the COVID19 pandemic has left a lasting effect on India's economy. Akhil Bharatiya Pratinidhi Sabha (ABPS), the top decision-making body of India's Hindu right-wing RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), says that “the young generation is suffering from unemployment and the pandemic has made things even grim... We cannot turn a blind eye to unemployment. It is a crisis and it needs to be addressed.” The RSS was apparently reacting to the falling labor participation rate in India relative to Pakistan and the global averages. The RSS leadership wants the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to focus on helping small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) to create jobs.  RSS likes Modi government's ‘Make in India’ initiative “but it needs to be sharpened even more and get more investment.” The resolution is titled, ‘The need to promote work opportunities to make Bharat self-reliant’. The solution offered by ABPS resolution: Take agro-based local initiatives to promote rural areas and create jobs, according to Ram Madhav, a member of the RSS executive committee. 

Falling Employment in India. Source: CMIE


India's labor participation rate (LPR) fell to 39.5% in March 2022, as reported by the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). It dropped below the 39.9% participation rate recorded in February. It is also lower than during the second wave of Covid-19 in April-June 2021. The lowest the labor participation rate had fallen to in the second wave was in June 2021 when it fell to 39.6%. The average LPR during April-June 2021 was 40%. March 2022, with no Covid-19 wave and with much lesser restrictions on mobility, has reported a worse LPR of 39.5%.

Labor Participation Rates in India and Pakistan. Source: ILO/World Bank

In spite of the headline GDP growth figures highlighted by the Indian and world media, the fact is that it has been jobless growth. The labor participation rate (LPR) in India has been falling for more than a decade. The LPR in India has been below Pakistan's for several years, according to the International Labor Organization (ILO). 

Indian Employment Trends By Sector. Source: CMIE Via Business Standard

Construction and manufacturing sectors in India have been shedding jobs while the number of people working in agriculture has been rising, according to CMIE. Job losses have caused a hunger crisis in India which now ranks 94th among 107 nations ranked by World Hunger Index in 2020. Other South Asians have fared better: Pakistan (88), Nepal (73), Bangladesh (75), Sri Lanka (64) and Myanmar (78) – and only Afghanistan has fared worse at 99th place. The COVID19 pandemic has worsened India's hunger and malnutrition. Tens of thousands of Indian children were forced to go to sleep on an empty stomach as the daily wage workers lost their livelihood and Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in the South Asian nationPakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan opted for "smart lockdown" that reduced the impact on daily wage earners. China, the place where COVID19 virus first emerged, is among 17 countries with the lowest level of hunger. 


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8 comments:

Kumar said...

India did not have more "excess deaths" in 2018, 2019 than in 2020.


Riaz Haq said...

Kumar: "India did not have more "excess deaths" in 2018, 2019 than in 2020"

"WHO: India's 4.7 Million Excess Deaths Account For Nearly One-Third of the Global COVID Death Toll":



Governments have undercounted the COVID-19 death toll by millions, WHO says



https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/05/05/1096842429/governments-have-undercounted-the-covid-19-death-toll-by-millions-the-who-says



India reported 481,000 COVID-19 deaths in 2020 and 2021. But William Msemburi, technical officer for WHO's department of data and analytics, said on Thursday that the toll is vastly higher, with 4.74 million deaths either directly or indirectly attributable to the pandemic — although Msemburi said that figure has a wide "uncertainty interval," ranging from as low as 3.3 million to as high as 6.5 million.



The data behind the staggering figures promise to expand the understanding of the pandemic's true effects. But the findings are also a flashpoint in debates over how to account for unreported coronavirus deaths. India, for instance, is rejecting WHO's findings.



India "strongly objects to use of mathematical models for projecting excess mortality estimates," the country's health ministry said on Thursday, insisting that WHO should instead rely on "authentic data" it has provided.



10 countries accounted for a large share of deaths

Deaths were not evenly distributed around the world. The WHO says about 84% of the excess deaths were concentrated in three regions: Southeast Asia, Europe and the Americas.



And about 68% of the excess deaths were identified in just 10 countries. WHO listed them in alphabetical order: Brazil, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Turkey and the United States.



Overall, WHO found the number of excess deaths was much closer to reported COVID-19 deaths in high-income countries than in lower income countries.

Riaz Haq said...

The Indian economy is being rewired. The opportunity is immense And so are the stakes

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/05/13/the-indian-economy-is-being-rewired-the-opportunity-is-immense

Who deserves the credit? Chance has played a big role: India did not create the Sino-American split or the cloud, but benefits from both. So has the steady accumulation of piecemeal reform over many governments. The digital-identity scheme and new national tax system were dreamed up a decade or more ago.

Mr Modi’s government has also got a lot right. It has backed the tech stack and direct welfare, and persevered with the painful task of shrinking the informal economy. It has found pragmatic fixes. Central-government purchases of solar power have kick-started renewables. Financial reforms have made it easier to float young firms and bankrupt bad ones. Mr Modi’s electoral prowess provides economic continuity. Even the opposition expects him to be in power well after the election in 2024.

The danger is that over the next decade this dominance hardens into autocracy. One risk is the bjp’s abhorrent hostility towards Muslims, which it uses to rally its political base. Companies tend to shrug this off, judging that Mr Modi can keep tensions under control and that capital flight will be limited. Yet violence and deteriorating human rights could lead to stigma that impairs India’s access to Western markets. The bjp’s desire for religious and linguistic conformity in a huge, diverse country could be destabilising. Were the party to impose Hindi as the national language, secessionist pressures would grow in some wealthy states that pay much of the taxes.

The quality of decision-making could also deteriorate. Prickly and vindictive, the government has co-opted the bureaucracy to bully the press and the courts. A botched decision to abolish bank notes in 2016 showed Mr Modi’s impulsive side. A strongman lacking checks and balances can eventually endanger not just demo cracy, but also the economy: think of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, whose bizarre views on inflation have caused a currency crisis. And, given the bjp’s ambivalence towards foreign capital, the campaign for national renewal risks regressing into protectionism. The party loves blank cheques from Silicon Valley but is wary of foreign firms competing in India. Today’s targeted subsidies could degenerate into autarky and cronyism—the tendencies that have long held India back.

Seizing the moment
For India to grow at 7% or 8% for years to come would be momentous. It would lift huge numbers of people out of poverty. It would generate a vast new market and manufacturing base for global business, and it would change the global balance of power by creating a bigger counterweight to China in Asia. Fate, inheritance and pragmatic decisions have created a new opportunity in the next decade. It is India’s and Mr Modi’s to squander. ■

Riaz Haq said...


Rajeev Matta
@RajeevMatta
India’s total debt in March 2014 was 53 lac crores. In March 2023 it will be 153 lac crores. He has added 100 lac crore in 8 years.
India’s debt to GDP ratio was 73.95% in Dec 20.
(1/n)

https://twitter.com/RajeevMatta/status/1525346057122885632?s=20&t=Zyx1zQAQBBPBZOtbnnbWNg

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Rajeev Matta
@RajeevMatta
Foreign reserves are under 600 billion dollars. The trade deficit in March 22 alone was 18.51 billion when we exported the most (an increase of 19.76%); the import too that month increased by 24.21% (they don’t highlight that).
(2/n)

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Rajeev Matta
@RajeevMatta
Besides paying for the trade deficit, the foreign reserves need to provide for 256 billion dollars of debt repayment by Sept 22. Imagine, with imports getting costlier where we will be then.
(3/n)

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Rajeev Matta
@RajeevMatta
Indian banks, specially the govt ones are making merry. In FY 21, they wrote off loans worth Rs 2.02 lac crore and since 2014, a whopping 10.7 lac crores. 75% of this is by public sector banks. We all know who all borrowed and scooted or not paying back.
(4/n)

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Rajeev Matta
@RajeevMatta
Finally, the GDP. We were going well at 8.26% in March '16 after which he punctured the tyres of the running car. Remember demonetization? We came down to 6.80 in 17; 6.53 in 18; 4.04 in 19 & -7.96 in 20. Who says pandemic and world economy are responsible for our halt?
(n/n)

SAMIR SARDANA said...

Chaiwala is happy !

He has saved the compensation to 4.7 million

These people were a BURDEN ON THE STATE resources and time of say 4000 USD per annum - which is a saving of USD 19 Billion per annum.

Lying is the core of the HINDOOO DNA !

It is the CURSE OF CHAIWALA !

Like I said on October 3, 2019 at 7:44 AM,on http://www.riazhaq.com/2019/09/howdy-modi-rally-in-houston-trump.html

BORIS EMBRACED CHAIWALA = HE ALMOST DIED OF COVID
BOLSONARO EMBRACED CHAIWALA = HE ALMOST DIED OF COVID
TRUMP EMBRACED CHAIWALA = HE GOT COVID AND LOST HIS POTUS
GHANI EMBRACED CHAIWALA = HE IS HISTORY
KARZAI EMBRACED CHAIWALA = HE IS HISTORY
THE EX-PM OF JAPAN EMBRACED CHAIWALA = AND HE IS IN BAD SHAPE
MACRON EMBRACED CHAIWALA = FRANCE GOT THE BUGGEST SHOCK IN HISTORY,AND THE BIGGEST INTELLIGENCE FAILURE OF FRANCE.THEY HAD NO CLUE ABOUT AUKUS OR THE NUKE DEAL !

RAJAPAKSE ALLOWED CHAIWALA TO COME TO LANKA AND HUG HIM - HE WAS ALMOST KILLED

CHAIWALA WENT TO UAE AND MADE TEMPLES AND MADE ARABS SAY JAI SHRI RAM - THE SHEIKH DIED YESTERDAY !

PUTIN CAME TO INDIA AND HUGGED CHAIWALA - PUTIN LOST A SHIP AND HAS CANCER !

WHEN WILL THE WORLD AWAKEN ? dindooohindoo

NOW SHAHBAZ WANTS TO TRADE WITH INDIA !

Y ?

samir sardana said...

THE CHAIWALA FORMULA FOR COVID FAILED !

TO HIDE THAT DISASTER - THE 4.7 MILLION DINDOOOS WHO DIED WERE HIDDEN !

LYING IS THE DNA OF THE HINDOO AND THE CHAIWALA !

TAKE THE CASE OF GYANVAPI !

THE HINDOOS HAVE FOUND A 100 FOOT LINGA- DECLARED BY THE MEDIA - AND THE MEDIA IS CAUTIONING THE MUSLIMS NOT TO INSULT THE "ASTHA" OF HINDOOS ON THE LINGA - WHICH IS A FOUNTAIN,TO KEEP WATER MOVING FOR WAZU - SO THAT THE WATER IS ALWAYS FRESH AND THE SOLID PARTICLES SEDIMENT AT THE BOTTOM !

NOW CHAIWALA IS USING THE MEDIA TO SPREAD THE LINGA LIE !

IF 10 HOLES ARE DRILLED INTO THE LINGA (FOR CONTENT SAMPLES), AND THE WATER CAVITY FROM WHICH THE WATER CAME OUT,OF THE FOUNTAIN IS SAMPLED,CARBON DATED,CHEMICALLY TESTED (FOR MORTAR USED/TYPE/DATE AND TECHNIQUE OF CRAFTING THE FOUNTAIN) - THE WHOLE LINGA,WILL BE BLOWN TO PIECES !

IT IS NOT THE LINGA,WHICH SHIVA THE MAD LOON MADE - AS HE COULD NOT PROTECT IT FROM AURANGZEB !

SHOULD MUSLIMS GIVE UP THE MOSQUE TO A LINGA ? WHAT DOES THE HINDOO SCRIPT SAY ABOUT SHIVA AND HIS LINGA ?

"When the sages saw Siva naked and excited they beat him and they said, 'Tear out your linga.' The great yogi said to them, 'I will do it, if you hate my linga', and he tore it out and vanished." -- Kurma Purana 2:38:39-41; cf. Haracaritacintamani 10:74; Yagisvaramahatmya 26a. 14.

In another version, the sages in the forest quote the legal texts regarding the penalty for seducing a guru's wife when they punish Siva:

"You false ascetic, let your (Siva's) linga fall to earth here. A shameless and evil man who has seduced another man's wife should be castrated; there is no other punishment ever. A man who has seduced his guru's wife should cut off the linga and testicles himself and hold them in his hands and walk until he dies." -- Siva Purana, Dharmasamhita 10:187-90; cf. B. K. Sarkar, pp.234-5.

INDIA ? CAN THIS NATION SURVIVE ? dindooohindoo

Riaz Haq said...

Research article
Open Access
Published: 29 May 2020
A comparison of the Indian diet with the EAT-Lancet reference diet
Manika Sharma, Avinash Kishore, Devesh Roy & Kuhu Joshi

https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-020-08951-8

The average calorie intake/person/day in both rural (2214 kcal) and urban (2169 kcal) India is less than the reference diet (Table 1). In both rural and urban areas, people in rich households (top deciles of monthly per capita consumption expenditure (MPCE)) consume more than 3000 kcal/day i.e. 20% more than the reference diet. Their calorie intake/person/day is almost twice as high as their poorest counterparts (households in the bottom MPCE deciles) who consume only 1645 kcals/person/day (Table 1).



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The average daily calorie consumption in India is below the recommended 2503 kcal/capita/day across all groups compared, except for the richest 5% of the population. Calorie share of whole grains is significantly higher than the EAT-Lancet recommendations while those of fruits, vegetables, legumes, meat, fish and eggs are significantly lower. The share of calories from protein sources is only 6–8% in India compared to 29% in the reference diet. The imbalance is highest for the households in the lowest decile of consumption expenditure, but even the richest households in India do not consume adequate amounts of fruits, vegetables and non-cereal proteins in their diets. An average Indian household consumes more calories from processed foods than fruits.

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The EAT-Lancet reference diet is made up of 8 food groups - whole grains, tubers and starchy vegetables, fruits, other vegetables, dairy foods, protein sources, added fats, and added sugars. Caloric intake (kcal/day) limits for each food group are given and add up to a 2500 kcal daily diet [7]. We compare the proportional calorie (daily per capita) shares of the food groups in the reference diet with similar food groups in Indian Diets.

Riaz Haq said...

Our total consumption of wheat and atta is about 125kg per capita per year. Our per person per day calorie intake has risen from about 2,078 in 1949-50 to 2,400 in 2001-02 and 2,580 in 2020-21

By Riaz Riazuddin former deputy governor of the State Bank of Pakistan.


https://www.dawn.com/news/1659441/consumption-habits-inflation

As households move to upper-income brackets, the share of spending on food consumption falls. This is known as Engel’s law. Empirical proof of this relationship is visible in the falling share of food from about 48pc in 2001-02 for the average household. This is an obvious indication that the real incomes of households have risen steadily since then, and inflation has not eaten up the entire rise in nominal incomes. Inflation seldom outpaces the rise in nominal incomes.

Coming back to eating habits, our main food spending is on milk. Of the total spending on food, about 25pc was spent on milk (fresh, packed and dry) in 2018-19, up from nearly 17pc in 2001-01. This is a good sign as milk is the most nourishing of all food items. This behaviour (largest spending on milk) holds worldwide. The direct consumption of milk by our households was about seven kilograms per month, or 84kg per year. Total milk consumption per capita is much higher because we also eat ice cream, halwa, jalebi, gulab jamun and whatnot bought from the market. The milk used in them is consumed indirectly. Our total per person per year consumption of milk was 168kg in 2018-19. This has risen from about 150kg in 2000-01. It was 107kg in 1949-50 showing considerable improvement since then.

Since milk is the single largest contributor in expenditure, its contribution to inflation should be very high. Thanks to milk price behaviour, it is seldom in the news as opposed to sugar and wheat, whose price trend, besides hurting the poor is also exploited for gaining political mileage. According to PBS, milk prices have risen from Rs82.50 per litre in October 2018 to Rs104.32 in October 2021. This is a three-year rise of 26.4pc, or per annum rise of 8.1pc. Another blessing related to milk is that the year-to-year variation in its prices is much lower than that of other food items. The three-year rise in CPI is about 30pc, or an average of 9.7pc per year till last month. Clearly, milk prices have contributed to containing inflation to a single digit during this period.

Next to milk is wheat and atta which constitute about 11.2pc of the monthly food expenditure — less than half of milk. Wheat and atta are our staple food and their direct consumption by the average household is 7kg per capita (84kg per capita per year). As we also eat naan from the tandoors, bread from bakeries etc, our indirect consumption of wheat and atta is 41kg per capita. Our total consumption of wheat and atta is about 125kg per capita per year. Our per person per day calorie intake has risen from about 2,078 in 1949-50 to 2,400 in 2001-02 and 2,580 in 2020-21. The per capita per day protein intake in grams increased from 63 to 67 to about 75 during these years. Does this indicate better health? To answer this, let us look at how we devour ghee and sugar. Also remember that each person requires a minimum of 2,100 calories and 60g of protein per day.

Undoubtedly, ghee, cooking oil and sugar have a special place in our culture. We are familiar with Urdu idioms mentioning ghee and shakkar. Two relate to our eating habits. We greet good news by saying ‘Aap kay munh may ghee shakkar’, which literally means that may your mouth be filled with ghee and sugar. We envy the fortune of others by saying ‘Panchon oonglian ghee mei’ (all five fingers immersed in ghee, or having the best of both worlds). These sayings reflect not only our eating trends, but also the inflation burden of the rising prices of these three items — ghee, cooking oil and sugar. Recall any wedding dinner. Ghee is floating in our plates.