Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Saturday, May 31, 2025

Pakistan's Homegrown Link-17 Kill Chain Helped Shoot Down India's Rafale Fighter Jets

Using a homegrown datalink (Link-17) communication system, Pakistan has integrated its ground radars with a variety of fighter jets and airborne early warning aircraft (Swedish Erieye AWACS) to achieve high level of situational awareness in the battlefield, according to experts familiar with the technology developed and deployed by the Pakistan Air Force. This integration allows quick execution of a "kill chain" to target and destroy enemy aircraft, according to experts. This capability was demonstrated recently in the India-Pakistan aerial battle of May 7-8 that resulted in the downing of several Indian fighter jets, including the French-made Rafale.

Pakistan PAF's Homegrown Link-17. Source: Secret Projects

Pakistan Air Force (PAF) pilots flying Chinese-made J10C fighter jets fired the Chinese PL-15 air-to-air missiles and shot down at least two Indian Air Force's French-made Rafale jets in history's largest ever aerial battle, according to multiple media and intelligence reports. India had 72 warplanes on the attack and Pakistan responded with 42 of its own, according to the Pakistani military.

Speaking on a recent podcast, Michael Dahm, a senior fellow at AFA’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, said the kill chain may have started with a Pakistani ground radar—“maybe a surface-to-air missile system, or some other type of radar system”—which “illuminated the Indian target.” Then, a Pakistani J-10C fighter “launched its missiles, probably at range, and finally, an airborne early warning and control aircraft used a midcourse datalink to update and guide the missile to the Indian fighter.” “The Pakistani Air Force deployed …’ A’ launched by ‘B’ and guided by ‘C’” and hit the target, he added.

PAF Kill Chain During Op Sindoor. Source: Blackbird

Link-17 enables secure and jam-resistant voice and data exchanges between connected assets. Combined with electronic warfare, it allows the Pakistani military to control the electromagnetic spectrum, giving access to the enemy communications and denying them access to their own. It also enables networked participants to view in real-time each other’s sensor feeds, which could come from radars, sonars, electro-optical (EO) systems such as cameras, and others. Link-17 has given the PAF a network protocol that it can use with a wide range of aerial assets, especially domestically driven programs, such as the JF-17 Thunder.

Military aviation analysts conclude from the results of the air battle that the Chinese technology is as good, if not better than, the western technology. However, it must be understood that the way the technology is actually deployed in the battlefield is as important in achieving good results as the technology itself. Also, the men count as much, if not more than, the machines. The legendary US Air Force pilot Chuck Yeager called Pakistan Air Force pilots "the best in the world". In another tweet in 2015, Yeager said "they (PAF pilots) kicked the Indians butt".

Saturday, May 24, 2025

American Prof John Mearsheimer on International Geopolitics in South Asia

Professor John Mearsheimer, a renowned international relations expert known for his theory of "offensive realism", has recently spoken to India's CNN-News18 about the impact of US-China competition on geopolitics in South Asia. Sharing his thoughts in interviews on India-Pakistan conflict after the Pahalgam attack, he said: "There is really no military solution to this (Kashmir) problem. The only way this can be solved once and for all is through a political solution that both sides find acceptable".

Professor John Mearsheimer on India-Pakistan Conflict

Professor John Mearsheimer is a highly respected professor of political science at the University of Chicago. Here's how he introduces himself on his personal website: "I am the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor in the Political Science Department at the University of Chicago, where I have taught since 1982. Above all else, I am an international relations theorist. More specifically, I am a realist, which means that I believe that the great powers dominate the international system, and they constantly engage in security competition with each other, which sometimes leads to war".

He has said that neither China nor the US want a full-scale war between India and Pakistan that could escalate into a nuclear war. However, it is in China's interest to "see significant tensions between India and Pakistan to get India to devote a lot of its strategic thinking and resources against Pakistan" rather than on China. The US, on the other hand, wants India to focus all its energies on countering China.

Talking about the recent "Operation Sindoor" launched by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi against Pakistan, Mearsheimer said it will not deter Pakistan. "By Operation Sindoor, India has responded like it has in the past. Don't think India wants a major war with Pakistan, it can't dominate on the lower or even the middle rungs of the escalation ladder", he said.

On Chinese involvement in South Asia, Mearsheimer said: "China-Pakistan relations are quite good. The Chinese are providing excellent weaponry to Pakistan and will provide even better weapons in future". "I don’t think China wants an India-Pakistan war but it wants to see significant tensions between India and Pakistan to get India to devote a lot of its strategic thinking and resources against Pakistan", he added.

Talking about the US interest in South Asia, he said: "When it comes to countering China, India is the most important country for the US in South Asia. But the US also wants to maintain good relations with Pakistan to try to peel it away from China".

Related Links:

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Has Pakistan Destroyed India's S-400 Air Defense System at Adampur?

Pakistan claims its air force (PAF) has destroyed India's high-value Russian-made S-400 air defense system (ADS) located at the Indian Air Force (IAF) Adampur air base. India has rejected this claim and posted pictures of Prime Minister Narendra Modi posing in front of its S-400 rocket launchers in Adampur. Meanwhile, there are reports that an Indian S-400 operator, named Rambabu Kumar Singh, was killed at about the time Pakistan claims to have hit it. Pakistan is believed to have targeted the S-400 systems using precision-guided CM-400AKG hypersonic missiles (max range 250 kilometers) launched from its JF-17 fighter aircraft.

How can an independent observer decipher the truth in the midst of these claims and counterclaims? To do that, one must first understand what constitutes the S-400 ADS. Is it just the rocket launchers? Or does it have other critical components like the radar and command-and-control systems? Could it be that the Pakistanis left the launchers alone and targeted and destroyed the radar and the command and control systems? Is that why the system operator was killed?

Russia's S-400 Air Defense System. Source: BBC

What is Russia's S-400 ADS?

The S-400 air defense system is designed to provide a layered defense with varying range capabilities. Its primary missiles, the 40N6, have a range of 400 kilometers (250 miles), while the 48N6E3 missiles offer a range of 250 kilometers (160 miles). The S-400 can also engage targets at shorter ranges using the 9M96E and 9M96E2 missiles, with ranges of 40 and 120 kilometers (25 and 75 miles), respectively. The S-400 consists of multiple components. Here's how it works.

1. Long-range surveillance radar tracks objects and relays information to the command vehicle, which assesses potential targets.

2. Target is identified and the command vehicle orders missile launch.

3. Launch data is sent to the best placed launch vehicle and it releases surface-to-air missiles.

4. Engagement radar helps guide missiles towards the target.

The entire system is rendered useless if any of these components are damaged or destroyed.

Death of an S-400 Operator:

Indian news outlet First Bihar reported the death of an Indian soldier operating the S-400 Air Defense System in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir at Adampur Airbase on May 10, 2025. This report was later deleted under pressure from the Indian government, in the same manner as The Hindu newspaper was forced to remove its story about the Indian Air Force's loss of French-made Rafale fighter jets in the aerial battle with the Pakistan Air Force.

India's NDTV Report:

Indian journalist Vishnu Som has confirmed in conversation with Shiv Aroor on NDTV that two near-hypersonic missiles fired from a JF-17 jet targeted Adampur Airbase. One of the missiles reportedly missed, while the outcome of the second is unclear. Aroor added that certain sensitive details about the incident could not be publicly disclosed.

If indeed Vishnu Som's confirmation is accurate, then the question arises as to how did a JF-17 armed with CM-400AKG hypersonic missiles (max range 250 kilometers) gain access to the S-400 system which has anti-access/area denial (A2AD) capabilities? The S-400's long range and ability to engage various aerial threats, including ballistic and cruise missiles, allows it to create a large area where enemy aircraft and missiles are denied access or freedom of operation.

Summary:

While there has been no official confirmation of the loss at Adampur, there is considerable circumstantial evidence to suggest that the Pakistan Air Force's fighter jets damaged a Russian-supplied S-400 ADS system operated by the Indian military. This is not the first time a Russian-made S-400 air defense system has been damaged or destroyed. Ukraine destroyed one in Crimea last year. Apparently the S-400 has known vulnerabilities that could have been exploited by both Ukraine and Pakistan.

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Has Modi Succeeded Diplomatically or Militarily Against Pakistan After Pahalgam?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched Operation Sindoor to "punish" Pakistan after blaming it for the Pahalgam militant attack without offering any evidence. He then quickly proceeded to seek and accept a US-brokered ceasefire within 100 hours of launching military strikes on Pakistan. Now he claims that India has succeeded in its objectives for Operation Sindoor.

Let's examine Mr. Modi's claim of victory after seeking and accepting a ceasefire so soon after launching a large military operation. In terms of diplomacy, India clearly failed to prove its allegations against Pakistan to gain the support of the international community. Many of India's closest friends, including the US and Israel, condemned the Pahalgam attack but none held Pakistan responsible for it. At the same time, Pakistan's closest friends China and Turkey stood solidly with Pakistan.

Militarily, India incurred heavy losses, including the loss of its most advanced Rafale fighter jets in a major aerial battle with the Pakistan Air Force. In fact, Mr. Modi was stunned by the robustness of Pakistan's retaliatory precision strikes with high-speed missiles and drone swarms. He said: "Instead of supporting India's strike against terrorism, Pakistan started attacking India itself". He clearly wasn't expecting it when he ordered missile strikes against Pakistan.

As to Mr. Modi's other claims about India's Operation Sindoor's "successes" against Pakistan, here's a good summation of their reality as seen by a veteran Indian diplomat MK Bhadrakumar:

"The bottom line is, Pakistan has demonstrated its nuclear deterrent capability. It is as simple as that. If Operation Sindoor were to be repeated every now and then, it would only have the same results and be halted unceremoniously within 100 hours. Eventually, it will not only lose all novelty to our ecstatic TV audience, but a troubled nation may eventually start blaming an inept leadership. Pakistan is a major military power. Creating potholes in an odd runway or rendering a radar dysfunctional temporarily will not intimidate that country. Succinctly put, it must be far better for India to take help from Trump, who harbors no animus against us, to solve the problem and move on with life".

Friday, May 9, 2025

Pakistan Downs India's French Rafale Fighter Jets in History's Largest Aerial Battle

Pakistan Air Force (PAF) pilots flying Chinese-made J10C fighter jets shot down at least two Indian Air Force's French-made Rafale jets in history's largest ever aerial battle involving over 100 combat aircraft on both sides, according to multiple media reports. India had 72 warplanes on the attack and Pakistan responded with 42 of its own, according to Pakistani military. The Indian government has not yet acknowledged its losses but senior French and US intelligence officials have confirmed that at least one Indian Rafale jet was shot down by Pakistan on May 7, 2025. Reports of more Rafale downings are being investigated by western intelligence officials. This marks the first time that the sophisticated French-made warplane has been lost in combat.

Rafale is the most advanced French 4.5 generation fighter plane. Indian Prime Minister Narendra spoke about India's need for Rafale back in 2019 after the last IAF-PAF dogfight and said: "We (Indians) acutely felt the absence of Rafale today.....if we had Rafale today the results would have been very different....desh ka bahut nuksaan hua hai" Then Mr. Modi proceeded to spend $7.4 billion to purchase 26 Rafale fighter jets from France in the hope of achieving air superiority over Pakistan. Each Rafale cost Indian taxpayers $288 million.

Military aviation analysts conclude from the results of the air battle that the Chinese technology is as good, if not better than, the western technology. However, men count as much, if not more than, the machines. The legendary US Air Force pilot Chuck Yeager called Pakistan Air Force pilots "the best in the world". In another tweet in 2015, Yeager said "they (PAF pilots) kicked the Indians butt".

In the 1980s, the Pakistan Air Force pilots went head-to-head with Russian combat pilots in Afghanistan. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has the distinction of being the only air force that has engaged and shot down multiple Russian fighter pilots in combat since WWII. The most prominent among those shot down by PAF was Colonel Alexander Rutskoy who ejected over Pakistani soil and was captured by Pakistan. After his release, Rutskoy was decorated as a hero of the Soviet Union and went onto become vice president of Russia under Boris Yeltsin, before leading an attempted coup in 1993, according to The National Interest publication.

The aerial battle between Pakistani and Indian fighter jets, which Pakistani officials claim downed five Indian planes, was one of the “largest and longest in recent aviation history,” a senior Pakistani security source told CNN. Over 100 combat planes battled for over an hour, with neither side leaving its own airspace, according to the CNN source who detailed that the missile exchanges were happening at distances sometimes greater than 160 kilometers (100 miles). The entire air battle was conducted using BVR (beyond visual range) radars/sensors with stand-off weapons.

Global militaries and defense analysts are now studying the India-Pakistan aerial battle on May 7, 2025, according to Reuters. Here's an excerpt of the Reuters' report:

"Experts said the live use of advanced weapons would be analyzed across the world, including in China and the United States which are both preparing for a potential conflict over Taiwan or in the wider Indo-Pacific region. One U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters there was high confidence that Pakistan had used the Chinese-made J-10 aircraft to launch air-to-air missiles against Indian fighter jets".

Here's Prime Minister Modi Speaking of India's Acute Need For Rafale in 2016:

https://youtu.be/QIt0EAAr3PU?si=KpcJW60jvD9r0xeQ