Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Showing posts with label J10C. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 30, 2025

Happy New Year 2026: Pakistan's Year 2025 in Review

As we enter the year 2026, it is time to review the year 2025 and wish you all Happy New Year 2026! May it bring peace, prosperity and happiness to all!!

The year 2025 saw Pakistan defeat a brazen Indian attack on its soil, while reviving its economy and fighting increasing terror. Pakistan's successful response to multiple serious challenges in 2025 helped significantly raise its geopolitical profile with improved ties with the United States and stronger relations with its friends in China, Russia and the Middle East. Pakistan’s GDP crossed the $400 billion mark in 2025. The year ended with Pakistani currency stable and the KSE-100, the key Pakistani stock market index, achieving new record highs with over 50% annual return in US dollar terms for investors. Privatization efforts gained steam with the sale of the PIA, the debt-ridden money-losing state-owned national airline, to private Pakistani investors. The political issues between the rulers and the opposition remained unresolved while PTI chief Imran Khan and his wife were sentenced to long jail terms. Taliban and Baloch terrorist groups stepped up their attacks on both civilian and military targets in the country. Pakistan has accused the Afghan Taliban of harboring these terrorist groups with India's backing.

Indian Aggression in May 2025:

On May 7, 2025, the Indian military launched an unprovoked attack on civilian targets in Pakistan after alleging without evidence that the terrorist attack in Pahalgam in the Indian Occupied Kashmir was carried out by groups based in Pakistan. The Indian attack was met with a robust Pakistani response in which multiple Indian fighter jets, including recently acquired Rafales, were shot down, leading to the grounding of the entire Indian Air Force for 48 hours. The fighting was halted within 4 days after mediation by the US President Donald J. Trump.

India's diplomatic efforts to isolate Pakistan by attempting to persuade the international community that Pakistan bore responsibility for Pahalgam failed miserably as the world demanded evidence which New Delhi could not produce. Azerbaijan, China and Turkey stood firmly with Pakistan, while India stood alone. Neither the US nor Russia came to India’s support.

High Optimism in Pakistan for 2026. Source: Gallup International

Pakistan's Geopolitical Gains:

Pakistan's success in what India dubbed Operation Sindoor was widely recognized by independent analysts and international media. President Trump talked about India's losses and a US government report referred to Pakistan's military successes against India.

Pakistan’s arm sales soared as the world learnt how the Pakistani military successfully used its indigenous defense gear, including drones and rockets, in the May conflict with India.

The Chinese celebrated the combat performance of their J-10C fighter jets and PL-15 air-to-air missiles used by the Pakistan Air Force against Indian military jets. Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defense pact with Pakistan after the Israeli Air Force struck in Doha, Qatar and the US government did nothing to help the country that hosts the largest US military base in the region.

Pakistan GDP FY 2008 to FY 2025. Source: PBS and AKD

Pakistan's Economic Revival:

Pakistan's economy stabilized with its currency stability and investor confidence. Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP ) reached $411 billion in June, 2025, rising 6.2% in April-June quarter. It slowed to 3.7% as floods hit parts of the country in the July-September quarter. The key stock index KSE-100 closed at record highs with 52% annual gain in US dollar terms. Large scale manufacturing grew with 8.3% in Oct 2025, driven by automobiles, construction, textiles, and petroleum. About 36,000 new retail trading accounts were opened in the September quarter, compared to 23,600 new registrations just three months ago, according to Topline Securities, a brokerage house in Pakistan. Broad and deep participation in capital markets is essential for economic growth and wealth distribution in any country.

Pakistan Shares Index Performance in 2025. Source: PSX

Pakistani Rupee Performed Better Than Indian/Sri Lankan Currencies in 2025

Pakistan's arms exports soared with multi-billion dollar orders for its fighter jets, trainer aircraft and drones. Azerbaijan, Sudan, Libya and Turkey purchased Pakistan-made defense equipment.

The discovery of rare earth metals, particularly large deposits of antimony, a critical mineral, boosted Pakistan's potential in world trade of critical metals. Antimony's main uses are in flame retardants (as antimony trioxide in plastics, textiles), strengthening alloys (especially with lead for batteries, ammunition, bearings, cable sheathing, pewter), and in semiconductors (diodes, infrared detectors). It's crucial for military tech (night vision, explosives), improves battery performance, and is used in glass (clarifying agent) and ceramics, highlighting its role in critical defense and energy technologies. . The price of antimony trioxide has shot up to around $40,000 per ton — off its peak of more than $60,000 as some users seek alternatives but still substantially higher than $26,000 in September 2024 — as fears about China’s control of the supply chains for metals including antimony have sparked a global race to secure supplies.

Pakistan received commitments of billions of dollars in investments in its large copper and gold deposits. Copper's importance has dramatically increased with growth in electric vehicles, data centers and global power demand.

Pakistan Space Program:

In October 2025, China launched HS-1 satellite for Pakistan, its first hyper-spectral satellite which is equipped with advanced hyper-spectral imaging sensors capable of capturing data across hundreds of narrow spectral bands. The satellite lifted off from China’s Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on a Kinetica-1 rocket. It is expected to boost Pakistan's national capacities in areas such as precision agriculture, environmental monitoring, urban planning, and disaster management. Its high-resolution data will support improved resource management and strengthen Pakistan’s resilience to climate-related challenges.

In addition to the HS-1 satellite, Pakistan has signed a $406 million deal with China’s PIESAT for a constellation of over 20 imaging and communication satellites, a move that signals a profound shift in its strategic posture, according to defense site Quwa. The deal includes a full transfer-of-technology (ToT) for in-country satellite manufacturing. It is poised to provide the Pakistani military with a sovereign, persistent imaging intelligence (IMINT) capability.

Pakistan's First AI Data Center:

Data Vault and Telenor Pakistan launched the nation's first dedicated AI data center in Karachi. It is designed to support startups, researchers, and government agencies with high-performance computing and GPU-as-a-service offerings. It is equipped with more than 3,000 Nvidia's highest performance H100 and H200 GPUs for which the Trump Administration issued export licenses. These GPUs cost from $40,000 to $60,000 each, making the Nvidia chips the biggest chunk of the investment made in this AI data center. Other data centers in Pakistan also support AI workloads but this new data center in Karachi is specially designed for AI. It puts the country on a short list of only a handful of nations with locally hosted AI data centers. Pakistanis rank among the world's top five users of Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools, securing the fourth spot among 21 nations surveyed by the Schwartz Reisman Institute.

Pakistan's Challenges in 2026:

Sustained economic recovery is the key challenge for Pakistan in 2026 and beyond. It is a difficult challenge amid unsettled issues with India and unresolved domestic political problems at home. Opposition leader Imran Khan and his wife have been sentenced to long jail terms by Pakistani courts. This situation, if left unresolved, is likely to continue to be a source of instability and poor economic performance. The other challenge is rising incidents of terror in the country with a 70% increase in terror attacks in 2025. Brute force alone will not resolve these issues. There's a need for talks to reach a political settlement with the Afghan Taliban who are harboring groups like the TTP and BLA that launch cross-border attacks in Pakistan.

Friday, May 9, 2025

Pakistan Downs India's French Rafale Fighter Jets in History's Largest Aerial Battle

Pakistan Air Force (PAF) pilots flying Chinese-made J10C fighter jets shot down at least two Indian Air Force's French-made Rafale jets in history's largest ever aerial battle involving over 100 combat aircraft on both sides, according to multiple media reports. India had 72 warplanes on the attack and Pakistan responded with 42 of its own, according to Pakistani military. The Indian government has not yet acknowledged its losses but senior French and US intelligence officials have confirmed that at least one Indian Rafale jet was shot down by Pakistan on May 7, 2025. Reports of more Rafale downings are being investigated by western intelligence officials. This marks the first time that the sophisticated French-made warplane has been lost in combat.

Rafale is the most advanced French 4.5 generation fighter plane. Indian Prime Minister Narendra spoke about India's need for Rafale back in 2019 after the last IAF-PAF dogfight and said: "We (Indians) acutely felt the absence of Rafale today.....if we had Rafale today the results would have been very different....desh ka bahut nuksaan hua hai" Then Mr. Modi proceeded to spend $7.4 billion to purchase 26 Rafale fighter jets from France in the hope of achieving air superiority over Pakistan. Each Rafale cost Indian taxpayers $288 million.

Military aviation analysts conclude from the results of the air battle that the Chinese technology is as good, if not better than, the western technology. However, men count as much, if not more than, the machines. The legendary US Air Force pilot Chuck Yeager called Pakistan Air Force pilots "the best in the world". In another tweet in 2015, Yeager said "they (PAF pilots) kicked the Indians butt".

In the 1980s, the Pakistan Air Force pilots went head-to-head with Russian combat pilots in Afghanistan. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has the distinction of being the only air force that has engaged and shot down multiple Russian fighter pilots in combat since WWII. The most prominent among those shot down by PAF was Colonel Alexander Rutskoy who ejected over Pakistani soil and was captured by Pakistan. After his release, Rutskoy was decorated as a hero of the Soviet Union and went onto become vice president of Russia under Boris Yeltsin, before leading an attempted coup in 1993, according to The National Interest publication.

The aerial battle between Pakistani and Indian fighter jets, which Pakistani officials claim downed five Indian planes, was one of the “largest and longest in recent aviation history,” a senior Pakistani security source told CNN. Over 100 combat planes battled for over an hour, with neither side leaving its own airspace, according to the CNN source who detailed that the missile exchanges were happening at distances sometimes greater than 160 kilometers (100 miles). The entire air battle was conducted using BVR (beyond visual range) radars/sensors with stand-off weapons.

Global militaries and defense analysts are now studying the India-Pakistan aerial battle on May 7, 2025, according to Reuters. Here's an excerpt of the Reuters' report:

"Experts said the live use of advanced weapons would be analyzed across the world, including in China and the United States which are both preparing for a potential conflict over Taiwan or in the wider Indo-Pacific region. One U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters there was high confidence that Pakistan had used the Chinese-made J-10 aircraft to launch air-to-air missiles against Indian fighter jets".

Here's Prime Minister Modi Speaking of India's Acute Need For Rafale in 2016:

https://youtu.be/QIt0EAAr3PU?si=KpcJW60jvD9r0xeQ