Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Monday, July 28, 2025

Can Pakistan Balance Close China Ties With its US Relationship?

Pakistani civilian and military leaders have recently met with top leaders from China and the US. While Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar has met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Pakistan's military chief Field Marshal Asim Munir has had lunch with President Donald Trump and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during July, 2025. “Our foreign policy is not a zero-sum game,” Dar said at a presentation to the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington DC. “We hope to see friendly relations between the US and China and do not wish to embroil in bloc politics.” Pakistan's close ties to both the US and China go back to the 1960s at the height of the Cold War. It was Pakistan which helped arrange the first China-US dialogue in July 1971 when the US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger flew from Pakistan to China to hold the first face-to-face meeting with Chinese leaders.

With increasing US-China rivalry on the world stage today, can Pakistan still maintain close ties with both Beijing and Washington at the same time? President Trump's remarks at a recent Philippines-US summit offer clues to answering this puzzle.

Responding to questions at the White House last week, visiting Filipino President Marcos said "there's no need to balance the relationship between the US and China" and that his "strongest partner has always been the US." President Trump immediately rebuked him, saying he "doesn't mind if [Marcos] gets along with China because we're getting along with China very well," and told Marcos that getting along with China is "doing what's right for his country," would "make the Philippines great again" and "wouldn't bother me at all."

It seems that Secretary Rubio has reconciled himself with the inevitability of China's rise. In February 2025, Rubio told Brian Kilmeade of Fox News: “China is going to be a rich and powerful country. No matter what we do, that’s what – we’re going to have to deal with that. But we have to deal with the reality. What we cannot have is a world where China is so powerful, we depend on them. And that’s right now where we’re headed, unfortunately. That’s going to change. That’s going to change under President Trump”.

Talking about the US interest in South Asia, American Professor John Mearsheimer told India's CNN-News18 in May this year: "When it comes to countering China, India is the most important country for the US in South Asia. But the US also wants to maintain good relations with Pakistan to try to peel it away from China".

Speaking to an Indian YouTube channel "The Federal" after what India called its "Operation Sindoor", French political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot talked of Indian expectations "which are completely unrealistic, a fight to the finish with a nuclear power (Pakistan). What does that mean do you think you can really break Pakistan create an an independent Balochistan this is complete fantasy and of course when you foster this sense of fantasy by being almost belligerent and also there is this sense of hysteria that that the that the media are of course also cultivating when you expect so much you can only be disappointed and and this is really um counterproductive for the BJP to play that game because they are bound to create expectations they will never meet".

Here's a good summation of the aftermath of "Operation Sindoor" as seen by a veteran Indian diplomat MK Bhadrakumar: "The bottom line is, Pakistan has demonstrated its nuclear deterrent capability. It is as simple as that. If Operation Sindoor were to be repeated every now and then, it would only have the same results and be halted unceremoniously within 100 hours. Eventually, it will not only lose all novelty to our ecstatic TV audience, but a troubled nation may eventually start blaming an inept leadership. Pakistan is a major military power. Creating potholes in an odd runway or rendering a radar dysfunctional temporarily will not intimidate that country. Succinctly put, it must be far better for India to take help from Trump, who harbors no animus against us, to solve the problem and move on with life".

Pakistan military's remarkable performance against its much larger rival India has significantly raised Pakistan's geopolitical profile in the eyes of the international community. Islamabad's ties with Beijing and Washington have significantly strengthened. The country has been elected President of the UN Security Council and Chair of the UN Security Council Taliban Sanctions Committee (1988 Committee): This committee oversees the implementation of sanctions measures against the Taliban. Pakistan is also Vice-Chair of the Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC): The CTC monitors the implementation of resolution 1373, which outlines state obligations to counter terrorism.

Tuesday, July 22, 2025

Which Country is a Bigger Beggar? India or Pakistan?

Most countries in the world today borrow money from various sources to finance their budget deficits. So do India and Pakistan. So why is it that only Pakistan's borrowing money gets labeled "begging"? Is it not begging when India borrows a lot more money than does Pakistan? Or is it that only borrowing money from the IMF qualifies as "begging"? Let's look into this double standard. Currently, India's public debt to GDP ratio is 80% while Pakistan's is about 74%. India's private debt to GDP ratio is 17%, twice that of Pakistan. Do these figures mean that India is a bigger beggar than Pakistan?

Debt-to-GDP Ratios Around the World. Source: Visual Capitalist

India is consistently among the largest borrowers from International Financial Institutions (IFIs), particularly the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). It has been the top debtor to the World Bank for several years and a major borrower from the ADB. India’s outstanding loan balance with the World Bank is almost double that of the next biggest debtor, Indonesia, which owed the bank $22.2 billion. Pakistan and Bangladesh followed with just short of $20 billion and $19.8 billion, respectively. India is also the largest borrower from the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Since 1986, when ADB began lending to India, it has approved many loans, grants, and technical assistance totaling $55.3 billion.

Top Debtors to World Bank 2025. Source: Visual Nerd

One key difference between the two South Asian neighbors is the frequency with which Pakistan has been borrowing from the International Monetary Fund, known as the lender of last resort. Pakistani economic managers have had a poor track record of managing hard currency reserves that the country needs to import what it lacks. Pakistani exports have failed to keep pace with its rising imports. This situation creates a crisis situation every few years and it forces the country to ask the IMF to lend its US dollars. Currently, Pakistan ($6.3 billion) is IMF's 5th highest debtor after Argentina ($31.1 billion), Ukraine ($10.19 billion), Egypt ($8.6 billion) and Ecuador ($6.6 billion). The only saving grace is the rapid growth in remittances from the Pakistani diaspora. In the last fiscal year that ended in June, 2025, overseas Pakistanis sent home $38.3 billion, representing 27% growth from the prior fiscal year. It helped Pakistan achieve a current account surplus of $2.1 billion, compared to a current account deficit of $2.1 billion in the previous fiscal year.

Global Income Levels By Country. Source: Visual Capitalist

Top IMF Debtor Nations. Source: IntelPoint

Pakistan's average economic growth of 5% a year has been faster than the global average since the 1960s, it has been slower than that of its peers in East Asia. It has essentially been constrained by Pakistan's recurring balance of payment (BOP) crises as explained by Thirlwall's Law. Pakistan has been forced to seek IMF bailouts 14 times in the last 75 years to deal with its BOP crises. This has happened in spite of the fact that remittances from overseas Pakistanis have grown 38X since 2000. Every time Pakistan has faced a balance of payments crisis, the result has been massive currency devaluation, high inflation and slower growth for a period of multiple years. The best way for Pakistan to accelerate its growth beyond 5% is to boost its exports by investing in export-oriented industries, and by incentivizing higher savings and investments.

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Pakistani International Students Flocking to European Universities

Recent data shows that there are nearly 10,000 Pakistani students attending colleges and universities in Germany. This figure is second only to the United Kingdom which issued over 35,000 student visas to Pakistanis in 2024. The second most popular destination for Pakistani students is Australia which is hosting nearly 24,000 students from Pakistan as of 2023, according to the ICEF Monitor.

Top Countries of Origin For International Students in Germany 2024. Source: Study in Germany

Here's a list of the top 15 countries of origin of foreign students in Germany in 2024:

India 49,008

China 38,687

Turkey 18,084

Austria 15,379

Iran 15,159

Syria 13,379

Russia 10,593

Italy 10,154

Ukraine 9,914

Pakistan 9,873

Egypt 8,060

Morocco 7,398

Tunisia 6,852

Cameroon 6,789

France 6,759

This year, Pakistani students won 114 Erasmus Mundus EU Scholarships, the highest number in the world. This makes Pakistan the top country receiving these scholarships for the fourth consecutive year. The Erasmus Mundus Scholarship is a prestigious European scholarship program for graduates, funding joint master's degrees at prestigious universities across multiple countries.

Pakistani Students Received the Highest Number of EU Scholarships in 2025. Source: EU

Here's the list of top countries of EU Scholarship Winners in 2025:

1. 🇵🇰 Pakistan: 114

2. 🇮🇳 India: 96

3. 🇧🇩 Bangladesh: 95

4. 🇲🇽 Mexico: 93

5. 🇳🇬 Nigeria: 75

6. 🇧🇷 Brazil: 73

7. 🇪🇸 Spain: 65

8. 🇺🇸 USA: 62

9. 🇪🇬 Egypt: 61

10. 🇩🇪 Germany: 61

Pakistan is third, after only China and India, in terms of the size of its college-aged population, according to the United Nations. The British Council expects growth in Pakistani outbound mobility to be among highest in the world over the next decade, along with China, India, Nigeria, and Bangladesh.

Acceptance rate in Pakistani universities and degree colleges was just 13.5% in 2022. Only 541,043 students were accepted from 4,085,185 students who applied. The country produced 471,306 university graduates in 2020-21. Of these, 157,102 were in STEM fields, including 43,000 graduates in information technology (IT).

Pakistan’s gross tertiary enrollment (GER) ratio was only 13% in 2023, according to UNESCO. This is much lower than in India, and lower than in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka as well. Of 109 countries UNESCO profiled in 2021, Pakistan’s tertiary GER was 100th. Given Pakistan’s huge college-aged population, there is serious unmet demand for higher education, according to the ICEF Monitor.

Recent data on which destinations are hosting the most Pakistani students include:

UK: 34,690 in 2022/23 (+50% y-o-y)

China: 28,000 before the pandemic

UAE: 24,865 in 2020 according to UNESCO

Australia: 23,380 in 2023 (+49%)

US: 10,165 in 2022/23 (+16%)

Germany: 8,210 in 2022/23 (+22%)

Kyrgyzstan: 6,000 in 2020 according to UNESCO

Malaysia: 5,000 in 2023

Canada: 4,750 in 2023 (+101%)

Turkey: 2,385 in 2020 according to UNESCO

Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Sweden, Qatar: At least 4,000 in 2020 according to UNESCO

Pakistani-Americans in Silicon Valley

2021: A Banner Year For Tech Startups in Pakistan

Pakistan Projected to Be World's 6th Largest Economy By 2075

Digital Pakistan 2022: Broadband Penetration Soars to 90% of 15+ Population

Working Women Seeding a Silent Revolution in Pakistan

Pakistani-American's AI Startup Commands $18 Billion Valuation

Over A Million Pakistani University Students Enrolled in STEM Fields

Pakistan at 75

Growing Presence of Pakistani Women in Science and Technology

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Pakistani Prosthetics Startup Aiding Gaza's Child Amputees

While the Israeli weapons supplied by the "civilized" West are destroying the lives and limbs of thousands of Gaza's innocent children, a Pakistani startup is trying to provide them with free custom-made prostheses, according to media reports. The Karachi-based startup Bioniks was founded in 2016 and has sold prosthetics that use AI and 3D scanning for custom designs.

Gaza's Child Amputee Sidra Al Bordini with Bioniks CEO Anaz Niaz. Source: Instagram

Bioniks has recently delivered its first prosthetics made for Gaza's children using remote imaging to design custom arms at low cost. The demand for such prosthetics is high because, according to the United Nations, Gaza has 4500 new amputees since October 7, 2023 Hamas attack which triggered Israel's brutal response and started the ongoing genocide in Gaza.

A recent Reuters story cites the examples of two girls, three-year-old Habebat Alla and 8 year-old Sidra Al Bordini, who recently received artificial limbs made by Bioniks. Both were severely injured in Israeli air strikes. Sidra and Habebat Allah, who lost both her arms and a leg in Gaza, went through days of remote consultations and virtual fittings. Then Niaz flew from Karachi to Amman, Jordan to meet the girls and make his company's first overseas delivery. children need lighter limbs and replacements every 12–18 months as they grow. Niaz said the company was exploring funding options for Sidra and Habebat's future replacements, adding the cost wouldn't be too high.

The company used a smartphone app to take pictures from different angles and created a 3D model to print custom prosthetics. Bioniks CEO Anas Niaz said the social enterprise startup had fit more than 1,000 custom-designed arms inside Pakistan since 2021 - funded through a mix of patient payments, corporate sponsorship, and donations - but this was its first time providing prosthetics to those impacted in conflict, according to Reuters.

Here's how the company describes itself on its website: "At Bioniks, we believe in turning disabilities into possibilities. Founded with a mission to empower individuals with disabilities, we are pioneers in advanced prosthetics and assistive technologies in Pakistan. Our innovative solutions are designed to restore mobility, independence, and dignity to those who need it most. Bioniks revolutionizes the field of healthcare through advanced-level prosthesis and surgical planning tools that are created using state of the art technologies and designing techniques. We at Bioniks aim to provide healthcare solutions that bring measurable value to those who use it and are shaped keeping their precise needs in mind."

Earlier this year, the startup was recognized for contributions to advancing the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, placing it among the world’s most “impactful and scalable” technology. It is the first Pakistani company to win the Zero Project Award, according to media reports.

Saturday, July 5, 2025

Indian Military Begins to Accept Its Losses in "Operation Sindoor" Against Pakistan

The Indian military leadership is finally beginning to slowly accept its losses in its unprovoked attack on Pakistan that it called "Operation Sindoor". It began with the May 31 Bloomberg interview of the Indian Chief of Defense Staff General Anil Chauhan in Singapore where he admitted losing Indian fighter aircraft to Pakistan in an aerial battle on May 7, 2025. General Chauhan further revealed that the Indian Air Force was grounded for two days after this loss.

General Chauhan was followed by Navy Captain Shiv Kumar, the Indian Defense Attache in Jakarta, Indonesia, who explained last month that the Indian Air Force losses occurred due to "constraint by (the Indian) political leadership" imposed on the Indian Air Force. He said the Indian forces had been directed not to target Pakistan’s military infrastructure or air defenses. “Only because of the constraint given by the political leadership to not attack the military establishment or their air defenses,” he said, explaining why the IAF suffered the loss of fighter jets.

Yesterday, Lieutenant General Rahul Singh, India's Deputy Chief of the Army, blamed the losses on Chinese help for Pakistan. He said India faced three enemies: Pakistan, China and Turkey based on the equipment used by Pakistan in the latest round. By this logic, Pakistan faced four or more enemies: India and its arms suppliers France, Israel and Russia whose equipment was used by the Indian military in Operation Sindoor against Pakistan.

General Singh said the Pakistanis were closely watching the Indian military's moves in real time. “When the DGMO-level talks were going on, Pakistan actually was mentioning that ‘we know that your such and such important vector is primed and ready for action. I would request you to perhaps pull it back’. So he was getting live inputs … from China,” he added.

Using a homegrown datalink (Link-17) communication system, Pakistan has integrated its ground radars and satellite links with a variety of fighter jets and airborne early warning aircraft (Swedish Erieye AWACS) to achieve high level of situational awareness in the battlefield, according to experts familiar with the technology developed and deployed by the Pakistan Air Force. This integration allows quick execution of a "kill chain" to target and destroy enemy assets, according to experts. This capability was demonstrated recently in the India-Pakistan aerial battle of May 7-8 that resulted in the downing of several Indian fighter jets, including the French-made Rafale.

In an earlier statement, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told Newsweek: “I was in the room when the US vice president spoke to Prime Minister Modi on the night of May 9, warning that the Pakistanis would launch a very massive assault on India if we did not accept certain things". “That night, Pakistan did launch a large-scale attack,” Jaishankar said. India sought and accepted the ceasefire immediately after the "large-scale attack" launched by Pakistan.

These statements by the Indian military brass lead to only one conclusion: Not only is there an implicit admission of India's failed "Operation Sindoor", but also a litany of lame excuses for the losses incurred by the Indian military. The fact is that the Indian leadership clearly underestimated Pakistan's capacity for a strong military and diplomatic response to the Indian provocation labeled "Operation Sindoor". New Delhi was caught unprepared for it.