Monday, July 28, 2025

Can Pakistan Balance Close China Ties With its US Relationship?

Pakistani civilian and military leaders have recently met with top leaders from China and the US. While Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar has met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Pakistan's military chief Field Marshal Asim Munir has had lunch with President Donald Trump and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during July, 2025.   “Our foreign policy is not a zero-sum game,” Dar said at a presentation to the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington DC. “We hope to see friendly relations between the US and China and do not wish to embroil in bloc politics.”  Pakistan's close ties to both the US and China go back to the 1960s at the height of the Cold War. It was Pakistan which helped arrange the first China-US dialogue in July 1971 when the US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger flew from Pakistan to China to hold the first face-to-face meeting with Chinese leaders. 


With increasing US-China rivalry on the world stage today, can Pakistan still maintain close ties with both Beijing and Washington at the same time?  President Trump's remarks at a recent Philippines-US summit  offer clues to answering this puzzle. 

Responding to questions at the White House last week, visiting Filipino President Marcos said "there's no need to balance the relationship between the US and China" and that his "strongest partner has always been the US." President Trump immediately rebuked him, saying he "doesn't mind if [Marcos] gets along with China because we're getting along with China very well," and told Marcos that getting along with China is "doing what's right for his country," would "make the Philippines great again" and "wouldn't bother me at all."

It seems that Secretary Rubio has reconciled himself with the inevitability of China's rise. In February 2025, Rubio told Brian Kilmeade of Fox News: “China is going to be a rich and powerful country. No matter what we do, that’s what – we’re going to have to deal with that. But we have to deal with the reality. What we cannot have is a world where China is so powerful, we depend on them. And that’s right now where we’re headed, unfortunately. That’s going to change. That’s going to change under President Trump”. 

Talking about the US interest in South Asia, American Professor John Mearsheimer told India's CNN-News18 in May this year: "When it comes to countering China, India is the most important country for the US in South Asia. But the US also wants to maintain good relations with Pakistan to try to peel it away from China". 

Speaking to an Indian YouTube channel "The Federal" after what India called its "Operation Sindoor", French political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot  talked of Indian expectations "which are completely unrealistic, a fight to the finish with a nuclear power (Pakistan). What does that mean do you think you can really break Pakistan create an an independent Balochistan this is complete fantasy and of course when you foster this sense of fantasy by being almost belligerent and also there is this sense of hysteria that that the that the media are of course also cultivating when you expect so much you can only be disappointed and and this is really um counterproductive for the BJP to play that game because they are bound to create expectations they will never meet". 

Here's a good summation of the aftermath of "Operation Sindoor" as seen by a veteran Indian diplomat MK Bhadrakumar: "The bottom line is, Pakistan has demonstrated its nuclear deterrent capability. It is as simple as that. If Operation Sindoor were to be repeated every now and then, it would only have the same results and be halted unceremoniously within 100 hours. Eventually, it will not only lose all novelty to our ecstatic TV audience, but a troubled nation may eventually start blaming an inept leadership. Pakistan is a major military power. Creating potholes in an odd runway or rendering a radar dysfunctional temporarily will not intimidate that country. Succinctly put, it must be far better for India to take help from Trump, who harbors no animus against us, to solve the problem and move on with life". 

Pakistan military's remarkable performance against its much larger rival India has significantly raised Pakistan's geopolitical profile in the eyes of the international community. Islamabad's ties with Beijing and Washington have significantly strengthened. The country has been elected President of the UN Security Council and Chair of the UN Security Council Taliban Sanctions Committee (1988 Committee): This committee oversees the implementation of sanctions measures against the Taliban. Pakistan is also Vice-Chair of the Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC): The CTC monitors the implementation of resolution 1373, which outlines state obligations to counter terrorism.

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Has Modi Succeeded Militarily or Diplomatically in Isolating Pakistan After "Operation Sindoor"?

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14 comments:

Mantou said...

Trump respects strength, and Operation Sindoor exposed India's weakness. This is why he looks at India with contempt. John Mearsheimer is a moron.

Anonymous said...

Tejasswi Prakash
@Tiju0Prakash
The truth of the Modi government’s 11-year foreign policy became clear when a conflict situation arose with Pakistan.

How many countries stood with you?

Can you name even one nation that condemned the terror attack?

On the other hand, countries like China, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia rallied behind Pakistan but no one stood with India.

Even multinational institutions expressed open support for Pakistan during that month, and the Modi government failed to prevent it.


@DeependerSHooda
ji
#OperationMahadev #LokSabha #RajnathSingh #OperationSindoor

https://x.com/Tiju0Prakash/status/1949852466817716513

Zen, Germany said...

"With increasing US-China rivalry on the world stage today, can Pakistan still maintain close ties with both Beijing and Washington at the same time? "

---
No, just like India can't continue the current path of "neutrality" and having multiple relations at the same time..It might work for small Corporatist states like UAE and switzerland. But big countries will be forced to take sides in the near future. Read this together with recent piece by Ashley in foreign policy magazine.

Anonymous said...

Indian multi alignment is in practical terms limited to preserving its special relationship with Russia.

The US will not hand over sensitive tech to India.Russia is the only country that will sell India stuff like Hypersonic missiles nuclear submarines etc.

Russia will also almost certainly veto any Kashmir related UNSC resolution as happened most recently in 2019 when Russia and France stated their intent to veto any resolution if brought forward by anyone.

In such a scenario India will continue to maintain very close relations with Russia.

This is also the one relationship that has all party support in the Indian parliament.

Riaz Haq said...

Trump Truth Social Posts On X
@TrumpTruthOnX
We are very busy in the White House today working on Trade Deals. I have spoken to the Leaders of many Countries, all of whom want to make the United States “extremely happy.” I will be meeting with the South Korean Trade Delegation this afternoon. South Korea is right now at a 25% Tariff, but they have an offer to buy down those Tariffs. I will be interested in hearing what that offer is.

We have just concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves. We are in the process of choosing the Oil Company that will lead this Partnership. Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling Oil to India some day!

Likewise, other Countries are making offers for a Tariff reduction. All of this will help reduce our Trade Deficit in a very major way. A full report will be released at the appropriate time. Thank you for your attention to this matter. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

https://x.com/TrumpTruthOnX/status/1950654905804279830

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Trump Says Pakistan Deal Done, South Korea Is Close

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/fed-meeting-interest-rate-decision-07-30-2025/card/trump-says-pakistan-deal-done-south-korea-is-close-QMBjox9gQN7P9yc4xlPm


The U.S. and Pakistan have concluded a trade pact, President Trump said Wednesday, adding that a deal could be close with South Korea.

Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. has “concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves,” and is in the process of choosing a company to lead the partnership.

Trump also said he would meet with a South Korean delegation on Wednesday afternoon, who would bring an offer to “buy down” the 25% tariffs Trump has threatened to impose Aug. 1. Trump has previously pressed others to commit funds to build infrastructure and energy projects in the U.S., including the European Union and Japan.

Trump provided no further detail, but said "a full report" would be released "at the appropriate time."

Riaz Haq said...

Trump Truth Social Posts On X
@TrumpTruthOnX
I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World. Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let’s keep it that way, and tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks he’s still President, to watch his words. He’s entering very dangerous territory!

https://x.com/TrumpTruthOnX/status/1950776077204513135
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Jayant Bhandari
@JayantBhandari5
Who would have thought that in comparison to India, Pakistan would be better friends with the US and Russia and be a deep friend of China? Modi and Chouhan's grotesquely corrupt and braindead regime made that possible.

https://x.com/JayantBhandari5/status/1950735268014944354

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Amir Husain
@amirhusain_tx
President Trump has announced an energy partnership with Pakistan. CPEC has made immense progress. Gwadar port and airport are done and ramping up. Thousands of megawatts of energy have come online. Large dams are being built. Pakistan has one of the fastest growing solar economies in the world. A new cutting edge, 1.2GW Nuclear reactor based on third gen tech is presently being built with China. Pakistan will drive 600% growth in shipping capacity over just the next three years. Road networks have been added at great speed. Pakistan Railways has hit record revenue. Just last year, hundreds of kilometers of highways were built. This year over 1,000km have been approved. Oil lies off Pakistan’s coast, in Sindh and Balochistan. At least ten new discoveries have been made since just 2024. An estimated fifty trillion dollars’ worth of rare earths and minerals lies beneath the surface. A partnership is emerging with China in this area. The Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum was a huge eye opener. There were hundreds of international delegates there to do deals. At the last IDEAS conference in Karachi, $30B in defense MoUs were executed, a few billion of which have already converted to orders, including with Azerbaijan. The PSX stock index is near all-time highs while Pakistani equities remain one of the most affordable in the region based on P/E multiples. There is massive interest in Pakistan’s economy right now.

https://x.com/amirhusain_tx/status/1950711516950638846

Riaz Haq said...

China, US should always be grateful to Pakistan: educationist
The Newspaper's Staff Reporter

https://www.dawn.com/news/amp/1921501

ISLAMABAD: Chinese Academician Prof Victor GAO on Tuesday said China and the US must always be grateful to Pakistan for laying the foundation of China-US relations, which is one of the biggest game-changing events in modern history.

He was speaking at a webinar organised by the Asian Institute of Eco-civilisation Research and Development.

He said he considered Pakistan’s role as a mediator to be a bright example of mediation. On the China-Pakistan relationship, he was of the view that no other country was more important for China than Pakistan.

“Pakistan holds a special place in China’s international relations. China considers Pakistan an iron-clad brother. Regardless of the situation, China will always come forward to help Pakistan safeguard its legitimate interests and sovereignty. China has consistently demonstrated this in its history, particularly during the wars of 1965 and 1971. The most recent war between Pakistan and India can be quoted as another example. China stood by Pakistan’s side shoulder to shoulder,” he said.

Prof. Victor also emphasised that Pakistan’s enemies can never be successful in destabilising the country. He concluded by saying that, since its independence, Pakistan has been a prominent and important geopolitical player, having played a significant role in many pivotal events of modern history.

Zahid Latif Khan, Chairman of AIERD, stated: “Pakistan reciprocates the sentiments of Prof. Victor, while expressing his gratitude to Prof. Victor for delivering a lecture on Pakistan-China relations.”

Mr. Shakeel Ahmad Ramay, CEO of AIERD and moderator, concluded the webinar by saying that the China-Pakistan relationship was unique and traditional theories cannot explain it. He was confident that China and Pakistan would continue to work together to create a community of shared future, which would help the world achieve the goals of prosperity and sustainable peace.

Riaz Haq said...

Uzair Younus عُزیر یُونس
@UzairYounus
“Trump feared that India might decide to equip one of the [Brahmos] missiles with a nuclear bomb if the crisis spiraled out of control…”

https://x.com/UzairYounus/status/1951993702613762300

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Trump’s Warm Embrace of India Turns Cold
Trade disputes and ties with Russia rankle the president, threatening to sink the U.S.-India relationship

https://www.wsj.com/world/india/trumps-warm-embrace-of-india-turns-cold-f8d0bbee

WASHINGTON—In just a matter of months, President Trump has gone from praising India as a major strategic partner to saying he wouldn’t care if its economy implodes.

The Trump administration still values the U.S.-India partnership, officials say. But ties between Washington and New Delhi have steadily soured over disputes about trade, Russia and whether Trump deserves credit for brokering a cease-fire following a four-day conflict in May between India and its rival Pakistan.



The standoff, fueled by the president’s public broadsides against India, threatens to sink a key but complex geopolitical relationship and break the bonds Trump has forged with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The fractures have appeared as U.S. ties with Pakistan have grown in recent months, culminating in a White House meeting between Trump and the country’s powerful army chief, Asim Munir, in June.

Modi “must be very, very unhappy,” said Manoj Joshi, a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, an Indian think tank.

India, viewed by the U.S. as a bulwark against China, has rankled Washington with its persistent relationship with Russia. New Delhi purchases Russian oil and weapons, propping up Russia’s economy, and along with Moscow is part of a loose, five-nation grouping of nations known as the Brics.

As Trump has turned against Russian President Vladimir Putin for not ending the war in Ukraine, he has vowed to impose tariffs on countries that do business with Moscow. India, Trump said Wednesday, would incur a “penalty” for its continued purchases of Russian goods.



“I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care,” Trump added in another social-media post Thursday.



Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Randhir Jaiswal told reporters Friday that the U.S.-India relationship “has weathered several transitions and challenges. We remain focused on the substantive agenda that our two countries have committed to and are confident that the relationship will continue to move forward.”

Still, Trump’s comments are a stark shift from the early days of the administration, when officials in both Washington and New Delhi hoped to build on the Trump-Modi relationship established during the president’s first term. Mike Waltz called ties between the two countries “the most important relationship of the 21st century” before Trump tapped him as national security adviser.



Trump hosted Modi at the White House in February and praised him as a “much better negotiator,” while Modi mirrored Trump’s campaign catchphrase and said he wanted to “make India great again.” High-profile visits to New Delhi by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Vice President JD Vance followed.

Yet the warm glow faded in the following months, when efforts to swiftly clinch a bilateral trade deal foundered. Trump, current and former officials said, is deeply frustrated by the lack of progress with New Delhi.

A point of contention in tariff negotiations is the U.S.’s push to open India’s agricultural markets, which employs over 40% of the country’s workforce.

Opening up the sector, which has long been protected by New Delhi, would anger India’s farmers, a powerful voting bloc. That presents a perilous political risk for Modi, who abandoned an effort in 2021 to deregulate the agricultural sector after facing nationwide protests from farmers.



Trump said the U.S. and India are still negotiating a trade deal even after the Aug. 1 deadline for an agreement.

Riaz Haq said...

Trump’s Warm Embrace of India Turns Cold
Trade disputes and ties with Russia rankle the president, threatening to sink the U.S.-India relationship

https://www.wsj.com/world/india/trumps-warm-embrace-of-india-turns-cold-f8d0bbee

Credit for a cease-fire
U.S.-India ties hit another snag in May when India and Pakistan, both nuclear powers, clashed over a four-day stretch. The conflict started after a militant attack in the disputed Indian-administered Kashmir region that Modi’s government blamed on Pakistan. Pakistan denied any role in the assault.



As the conflict raged, the U.S. received intelligence that India launched the Brahmos cruise missile to strike targets in Pakistan, according to Trump administration officials. The U.S. assesses that the weapon, produced in partnership with Russia, can carry nuclear warheads, current and former officials said, though India says it is solely a conventional missile.

Trump feared that India might decide to equip one of the missiles with a nuclear bomb if the crisis spiraled out of control, officials said, or that Pakistan could decide to launch a nuclear device of its own, leading Trump to encourage Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to call their counterparts.

Trump posted on social media that his team brokered a deal that led to a cease-fire on May 10. Pakistan embraced the announcement, praising Trump and nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize.

India, by contrast, bristled at Trump’s assertions and insisted no outside power dictated the cease-fire. India’s insistence that the U.S. role was overblown has privately angered Trump, who has told aides he’s upset with Modi for not thanking him.



A White House official said Trump leveraged his relationships with both India and Pakistan to secure a cease-fire that the administration insists could have gone nuclear without his involvement. The official wouldn’t comment on India’s use of the Brahmos missile as the reason for Trump’s concerns.

Officials at the Indian Embassy in Washington said India has a no-first-use nuclear policy, so its use of the Brahmos missile should have caused no alarm in the U.S. about a nuclear escalation.

Trump strained ties even further by offering to mediate the longstanding Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan.

“That was embarrassing for India. India has always rejected the idea of third-party mediation, something that Pakistan has always sought,” said Lisa Curtis, a former senior National Security Council official who oversaw South Asia policy in Trump’s first term. “If there had just been one or two tweets on May 10, the two sides could have recovered from it. However, Trump has talked multiple times about the U.S. bringing about the cease-fire.”



Russian ties
Trump’s embrace of Pakistan and pressure on India over its ties with Russia and trade could backfire at just the moment when India was warming up to defense ties with the West.

“It’s going to push India increasingly into the hands of Russia,” said Derek Grossman, a former U.S. intelligence official and professor on Indo-Pacific security affairs at the University of Southern California.



In recent years, India has sought to pivot away from relying on Russia for military equipment, especially after the Ukraine war cut off the ready flow of Russian-made weapons.

From 2020 to 2024, India imported 36% of its military hardware from Russia, its largest supplier, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. That was a shift from the 2006-10 period, when 82% of India’s military equipment was imported from Russia.

The U.S. has previously targeted Indian businesses for allegedly helping Russia evade sanctions by selling dual-use technology that could bolster Moscow’s military production.


Riaz Haq said...

Trump’s Warm Embrace of India Turns Cold
Trade disputes and ties with Russia rankle the president, threatening to sink the U.S.-India relationship

https://www.wsj.com/world/india/trumps-warm-embrace-of-india-turns-cold-f8d0bbee

In announcing that the U.S. would place 25% tariffs on Indian goods, Trump also criticized India for purchasing large quantities of Russian oil. India has taken advantage of discounted oil prices from Russia after many Western countries stopped buying or curbed their purchases. In the last quarter of 2024, India accounted for one-third of Russia’s oil exports, according to ORF.

“It is most certainly a point of irritation in our relationship with India—not the only point of irritation,” Rubio said in a Fox News interview on Thursday. “With so many other oil vendors available, India continues to buy so much from Russia, which in essence is helping to fund the war effort and allowing this war to continue in Ukraine.”

The newfound U.S. attention to the matter has put India in a bind.

“Abruptly dropping Russian oil will have consequences for the relationship. On the other hand, the promised U.S. sanctions will have their own impact,” said ORF’s Joshi. “Just how to square this circle is a tough one.”

Riaz Haq said...

'India cheats on immigration': Top Donald Trump aide escalates war of words - BusinessToday

https://www.businesstoday.in/nri/visa/story/india-cheats-on-immigration-top-donald-trump-aide-escalates-war-of-words-487597-2025-08-04

Stephen Miller, a top adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, has accused India of “cheating” on immigration and slamming American products with “massive” tariffs—even as it continues to buy Russian oil he says is financing the Ukraine war.

“India portrays itself as being one of our closest friends in the world; but they don't accept our products, they impose massive tariffs on us, we also know they engage in a lot of cheating on immigration policy,” Miller said on Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures.

The remarks mark one of the Trump administration’s harshest public criticisms of India, as Washington escalates pressure on New Delhi over its deepening trade and energy ties with Moscow.

“What he [Trump] said very clearly is that it is not acceptable for India to continue financing this war by purchasing the oil from Russia,” Miller added. “People will be shocked to learn that India is basically tied with China in purchasing Russian oil. That's an astonishing fact.”

Despite mounting U.S. pressure, Indian officials say they will not halt Russian crude imports. According to Bloomberg, both state-owned and private refiners are still free to buy from preferred suppliers, and no government directive has been issued to stop purchases.

Over the weekend, Prime Minister Narendra Modi defended India’s economic autonomy, calling for self-reliance amid global instability. “Now, whatever we buy, there should be only one scale: we will buy those things which have been made by the sweat of an Indian,” Modi said at a rally in Uttar Pradesh.

Trump recently imposed a 25% tariff on Indian exports and threatened further penalties if oil purchases from Russia continue. He has also lashed out at India’s participation in BRICS, accusing member states of backing “dead economies.”

While Miller emphasized Trump’s “tremendous relationship” with Modi, he warned that “all options are on the table” as Trump seeks diplomatic and financial pressure to end the war in Ukraine—India’s balancing act is now clearly in Washington’s crosshairs.

Riaz Haq said...

Trump ramps up economic pressure on India, hails trade deal with Pakistan | Semafor


https://www.semafor.com/article/08/04/2025/trump-leans-in-to-us-pakistan-relationship-amid-india-dispute

India is under escalating economic pressure from the US, while its regional rival Pakistan hails closer ties with Washington.

US President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to “substantially” raise tariffs on New Delhi, currently 25%, for buying Russian oil. India said it won’t stop its purchases, remaining defiant in the face of Trump’s threats.

The strategy contrasts with that of Pakistan, which landed a more favorable US tariff rate of 19%, in part because of Trump’s interest in the country’s oil reserves, but also because Islamabad “didn’t ruffle featherson the geopolitical front,” an expert told Nikkei. Pakistan’s powerful army chief is personally courting Trump, The Econom

Ahmed said...

Salam Sir

I hope you and your team is doing well, I have an important question, many Indians are penetrating in the job market of West specially that of America and many western people specially Americans are concerned about it, Indians are receiving hatred from Americans because they are replacing local Americans at work places.
Sir my question is that are Indians really more skilled, talented and educated than Americans and other immigrants living in America that they have much greater chances of getting jobs in companies and organizations in America as compared to other people?
Can you pls throw some light on this issue? And can you pls make a blog about it?

Thanks

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan’s Surprise Gain in Trump Ties Reflects India’s Pain - Bloomberg

Islamabad is reveling in an unexpected turnaround in US relations

By Faseeh Mangi

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-08-08/pakistan-s-surprise-gain-in-trump-ties-reflects-india-s-pain

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here.

Virtually alone in the world, Pakistan seems to have played its cards right with President Donald Trump.

It’s among the few countries to have reached a US trade dealwithout too many hiccups, unlike Switzerland, Brazil — or Pakistan’s arch-rival, India.

The first interactions between Islamabad and the Trump White House happened when India and Pakistan came close to war earlier this year, with both sides exchanging missile and drone strikes.



Trump announced a ceasefire that Pakistan welcomed with open arms, while India repudiated the president’s claim that he’d brokered the truce.

With hindsight, India’s relations with the White House went downhill from there.



Pakistan, meanwhile, has some assets that piqued Trump’s interest.

It has one of the world’s largest untapped gold and copper resources, leading to speculation the US may want a similar minerals deal to one struck with Ukraine. It’s secured US investments, with Trump posting about working with Pakistan to develop “their massive oil reserves.”

Then there’s crypto. Representatives of Trump-backed World Liberty Financial flew into Islamabad around the time of the Pakistan-India clashes and announced a deal to work with Pakistan as it opens up to digital currencies.

All this culminated in a surprise lunch meeting at the White House for Army chief Asim Munir, the most powerful person in Pakistan. Soon after, its government said it would nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.



It’s a turnaround from recent US relations, with hardly any high-level contacts between Pakistan and the Biden administration. India, by contrast, was long courted by the US as a bulwark against China.

Pakistan has its troubles: It’s on the front line of climate change, and only stabilized its economy with the help of loans from the International Monetary Fund.

Yet there’s relief in Islamabad that Pakistan can look forward to warm ties with the Trump administration. That new sense of confidence is all the sweeter as India sweats.