Monday, April 28, 2025

Pahalgam Attack: Why is the Indian Media Not Asking Hard Questions?

A recent terrorist attack on April 22 in Kashmir has killed 26 Indian tourists. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu Nationalist government took no time to blame Pakistan for the attack and vowed to "punish" the neighbor for it. Indian media, also derisively known as "Godi media", immediately went into overdrive to demand action against Pakistan. New Delhi followed up with suspending the Indus Basin Water treaty from the 1960s which guarantees 80% of the water from the three western rivers (Chenab, Jhelum and Indus rivers) to Pakistan, while India gets the exclusive use of the water from three eastern rivers (Beas, Ravi and Sutlej rivers). India also ordered Pakistani visitors to leave the country and reduced Pakistani diplomatic staff posted in India. Pakistan responded by suspending Simla Agreement and banning overflights of Indian civilian and military aircraft through its airspace. Pakistan warned India that any attempt to block its share of water from the three western rivers will be an "act of war", adding that it was prepared to respond, “with full force across the complete spectrum of national power”. Pakistan is a nuclear-armed country, as is India. Pakistan's nuclear doctrine calls for the use of nuclear weapons if its national existence is threatened by any country. 

Shankaracharya Swami Avimukteshwaranand Saraswati


The Indian mainstream media has amplified the Modi government's propaganda and abandoned its role of asking the hard questions to get at the truth. Among the few who have raised serious doubts about Delhi's  narrative is a Hindu religious leader named Shankaracharya Swami Avimukteshwaranand Saraswati. In a viral video, the holy man has asked the following questions:

1. Shouldn't our "chowkidar"  (Modi has called himself  chowkidar in the past) be held accountable for any attacks on our home? 

2. How did the attackers manage to come in, carry out the attack without any resistance and safely escape?

3. How did you so quickly determine that the attackers came from Pakistan? And if you are so good at reaching this conclusion so quickly, why were you unable to stop the attack in the first place. 

4. Can India really cut off water flow instantly to Pakistan to "punish" it? Experts say it will take at least 20 years if India allocated unlimited funds to make it happen as fast as possible. It will require building dams, water reservoirs and canals to divert the water from Pakistan. 

Pakistani journalist Najam Sethi sees the hand of "Indian deep state" at work in Pahalgam, carried out while the US Vice President JD Vance in India. Sethi recalls what former American Secretary of State Madeleine Albright wrote in her memoirs titled "Mighty Almighty" about the killing of 35 Sikh villagers in Kashmir that India blamed on Pakistan during US President Bill Clinton's India visit in March, 2000. She said Clinton suspected the hand of Hindu extremists in the Chittisinghpura incident. She quoted him saying that if he hadn’t made the trip, the victims would have still been alive. 

Among the Indian journalists, only Bharat Bhushan has raised some questions about his country's government narrative. He thinks India violated the back-channel agreement between Modi's NSA Ajit Doval and Pakistan's then NSA Moeed Yusuf reached after 2019 to spare the civilians on both sides in any proxy attacks. Bhushan points out a warning from Lt General Ahmad Sharif that “the (Jaafar Express) train attack (in Balochistan) has changed the rule of the game”. 

Bhushan's op ed mentions Modi's muscular policy toward people he sees as "terrorists".  Canada, Pakistan and the United States have all accused the Indian government of a campaign of international assassinations. He writes: "Another development has been the targeted killings of terrorists and militants — both Kashmir and Sikhs, that Pakistan alleges have been initiated by Indian intelligence agencies after the Pulwama terrorist strike in 2019 when 40 paramilitary personnel were killed. India was allegedly inspired to undertake extra-judicial killings on foreign soil, from the example of Russia’s KGB, Israel’s Mossad, and the assassination of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi Arabia". 

Bhushan concludes his Op Ed in Deccan Herald as follows: "How will India react now to what it believes to be Pakistan-sponsored terrorism? The bravado about punishing every terrorist act with greater-than-expected force is not going to be easy to put in action. Geopolitical circumstances have changed since 2019.  Public sentiment cannot be the sole basis of military strikes. Thankfully, no crucial election is in the offing where assuaging public emotions becomes an issue. India will also have to provide proof to the world that Pakistan was indeed involved. This would require the arrest and questioning of the terrorists involved. That may take time. Only the tacit approval of the US can ensure that a strike against Pakistan does not spin out of control". 

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Karan Thapar Dismantles Official Indian Narrative on Kulbhushan Jadhav

How Long Can Modi Escape Accountability For Murder? 

Is Modi's India a Paper Elephant?

US Government Brackets Modi With Murderous Dictators

Ex India Spy Documents Successful RAW Ops in Pakistan

London Police Document Confirms MQM-RAW Connection Testimony

India's Ex Spooks Blame Kulbhushan Jadhav For Getting Caught

Ajit Doval Lecture on "How to Tackle Pakistan" 

Indian Analyst Bharat Kanad to Modi: Use TTP Terrorists to Attack Pakistan




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Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Earth Day: Pakistan's Progress Toward Low-Carbon Economy

Pakistan celebrates Earth Day on April 22 every year by organizing various events sponsored by the government and non-government organizations to raise awareness of the issues faced by the earth. Today it is being observed with a range of initiatives, including pledges for zero waste, commitments to sustainable practices, and community-based actions to protect the planet. Pakistan contributes less than 1% of global carbon emissions, but it is among the countries considered most vulnerable to climate change. About a third of the country was devastated by massive floods in 2022. The nation committed continued pursuit of nature-based solutions to the problem at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021. As part of this commitment, the country is planting one of the world's largest mangrove forests in the Indus River Delta, a key component of its Ten Billion Tree Tsunami campaign launched by former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The area where Pakistan is making substantial progress is in moving toward a low-carbon economy. 

Earth Day in Pakistan


"Our Power, Our Planet" theme focuses on a low-carbon economy with growth in clean electricity generation and the use of electric vehicles in Pakistan. In 2024, the hydropower  contributed 10,681MW to the national grid, accounting for 25.4% of total capacity and generating 29,167GWh, representing 31.7% of total electricity generation. With nuclear power generation capacity of 3,262 megawatts, Pakistan increased the share of electricity generated from nuclear power plants to a record 17.4% in 2023 from 16.2% in 2022. Pakistan’s on-grid, net-metered solar capacity reached about 4,100 MW by December 2024. 

Meanwhile, Pakistan is in the midst of a solar power boom. It has joined the ranks of the world’s leading solar markets, importing 17 gigawatts of solar panels last year alone, according to the Global Electricity Review 2025 by Ember, an energy think tank in the UK. “Rooftop solar is fast becoming the preferred energy provider,” says Muhammad Mustafa Amjad, program director at Renewables First in Pakistan. “And the role of the grid has to massively adapt in order to remain relevant in a fast-transitioning energy economy.”

A number of auto companies have announced plans to manufacture electric vehicles. Pakistani automobile joint ventures with Chinese automakers BYD and Changan have recently launched several all-electric and plug-in hybrid models of automobiles in Pakistan. Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited has announced plans to build a hybrid electric vehicles plant in the country. Other major brands like Toyota, Haval, and Hyundai are already offering similar models in the country. It all began with the 2019 electric vehicle policy approved by the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan to incentivize the electrification of the auto industry. Pakistan EV policy goal is to achieve 30% of new cars sales, 50% of new 2-wheeler and 3-wheeler sales and 30% of new truck sales by 2030. By 2040, the target is 90% of all new vehicle sales to be electric. The main incentive is the reduction of sales tax from 17% for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to 1% for all-electric (EV) vehicles.

Pakistan is currently experiencing a huge economic drain in terms of fossil fuel imports. In the first two months of the current fiscal year, Pakistan's oil import bill increased by 23% compared to the same period in 2023. Paying for huge amounts of imported coal, gas, and oil in US dollars has become disastrous, particularly after 40% depreciation of Pakistani currency over the last two years. Switching to cheap renewable sources will have a salutary effect on the country's climate and economy. It will help grow the nation's exports by increasing its exporters' competitiveness. It will also make it easier to manage inflation and reduce the need for recurring IMF bailouts. 

The GenAI revolution is another factor that will dramatically increase global power demand. Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs forecasts that the new high-performance AI data centers alone will grow electricity demand by 160% by 2030. Pakistan needs to prepare for it if it wants to be competitive in this brave new world of generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI). 


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Saturday, April 19, 2025

International Schools: Pakistan Ranks Among Top 5 Countries in the World

Pakistan ranks among the top 5 nations in terms of international schools offering schooling based on International Baccalaureate (IB) and IGCSE (Cambridge) curricula. China leads with 1,000 international schools, followed by India (900), UAE (784), Pakistan (598) and Brazil (415). The medium of instruction in these schools is English. 

Aitchison College, Lahore, Pakistan


The international schools in India and Pakistan date back to the days of the British Raj when these schools were established to serve the children of the British and the British-Indian civil servants. Later, these schools also attracted the children of diplomats and expats as well as Indian and Pakistani elites. Today, the vast majority of students attending these schools are the children of rich Indians and Pakistanis. 


Karachi Grammar School, Karachi, Pakistan



The international schools favored by Pakistani elites include Aitchison College, Karachi Grammar School,  Lahore Grammar School and the American International Schools located in Islamabad, Karachi and Lahore. The tuition at the most expensive international schools in Pakistan runs from $12,000 to $15,000 a year. Beaconhouse schools in Pakistan cost less than these select schools. The graduates of international schools often attend elite universities in the UK and the United States, in addition to top Pakistani private universities like LUMS (Lahore University of Management Sciences) in Lahore and the Aga Khan University in Karachi. 

The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan


Former finance minister Dr. Miftah Ismail, a member of Karachi's rich business elite, attended Karachi Grammar School and went on to earn a PhD from UPenn's Wharton School of Business.  In an article in Dawn newspaper titled "The One Percent Republic", he wrote about elitism in education as follows: 

"There are around 400,000 schools in Pakistan. Yet in some years half of our Supreme Court judges and members of the federal cabinet come from just one school: Aitchison College in Lahore. Karachi Grammar School provides an inordinate number of our top professionals and richest businessmen. If we add the three American schools, Cadet College Hasanabdal (alma mater of military top brass) and a few expensive private schools, maybe graduating 10,000 kids in total, we can be sure that these few kids will be at the top of most fields in Pakistan in the future, just as their fathers are at the very top today..... Pakistan’s economy thus only relies on whatever a small elite can achieve. It remains underdeveloped as it ignores the talent of most in the country."


Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS)

Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan attended Aitchison College, an elite school established in Lahore by South Asia's colonial rulers to produce faithful civil servants during the British Raj. He then went on to graduate from Oxford University in England. Here's an excerpt of what he wrote in an article published by the Arab News on January 14, 2002:

"My generation grew up at a time when colonial hang up was at its peak. Our older generation had been slaves and had a huge inferiority complex of the British. The school I went to was similar to all elite schools in Pakistan. Despite gaining independence, they were, and still are, producing replicas of public schoolboys rather than Pakistanis. I read Shakespeare, which was fine, but no Allama Iqbal — the national poet of Pakistan. The class on Islamic studies was not taken seriously, and when I left school I was considered among the elite of the country because I could speak English and wore Western clothes. Despite periodically shouting ‘Pakistan Zindabad’ in school functions, I considered my own culture backward and religion outdated. Among our group if any one talked about religion, prayed or kept a beard he was immediately branded a Mullah. Because of the power of the Western media, our heroes were Western movie stars or pop stars. When I went to Oxford already burdened with this hang up, things didn’t get any easier. At Oxford, not just Islam, but all religions were considered anachronism."

Related Links:


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Saturday, April 12, 2025

Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum Draws Interest of Global Investors

Pakistan's mineral resources, estimated to be over $6 trillion, attracted global investor interest at the Pakistan Minerals Investors Forum 2025 (PMIF2025) held recently in Islamabad on April 8th and 9th. It was attended by major international companies and government officials from Australia, Canada, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, the US and other nations. 


Pakistan is known to have large deposits of critical minerals from copper and gold to lithium. Canadian Mining Journal has described the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan as "Saudi Arabia of lithium".  These deposits are found in various parts of the country, including Balochistan,  Gilgit,  Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, and the Exclusive Economic Zone of Pakistan's coastal waters. The Geological Survey of Pakistan also notes the potential of lithium in LCT-type pegmatites and super arid salt lakes. Pakistan's major lithium-bearing areas are found in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Tribal Areas (FATA), contributing about 85% of the country's lithium production. 

Pakistan Minerals Map. Source: ResearchGate

The Trump administration is interested in working with Pakistan to explore the potential for cooperation in meeting the US needs for critical minerals. "Critical minerals are the raw materials necessary for our most advanced technologies," said  Eric Meyer, a senior official for the Department of State's Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, who attended the PMIF2025 in Islamabad. He said Pakistan's "vast mineral potential" can benefit the United States as he highlighted the White House's strategic priority to secure diverse and reliable sources of critical minerals. 

Eric Meyer's participation in the PMIF2025 was preceded by a phone call from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar.  After the  call, the US State Department readout said, "The Secretary raised prospects for engagement on critical minerals and expressed interest in expanding commercial opportunities for U.S. companies". 

In January of this year, Gentry Beach, an American billionaire investor and a close Trump ally, visited Pakistan to look for investment opportunities in the mining sector. Upon his return to the United States, Beach praised Pakistan government’s policies as “favorable for business and investment" and expressed keen interest in investing across various sectors. In a viral TikTok video of his speech at Trump's Florida home at Mar a Lago, Gentry said, " Last week, I had the benefit of visiting Pakistan, an amazing country.....unfortunately, the previous administration (Biden administration), burned every possible bridge they could, they even put sanctions on Pakistan, a close US ally... they (Pakistanis) have sacrificed so much for the American people....Pakistan is a country that we (US) need to build a strong bridge to and partnership with". 

Pakistan has one of the world’s largest porphyry copper-gold mineral zones. The Reko Diq mine in southwestern Balochistan province has an estimated 5.9 billion tons of copper ore. At current prices, the value of copper and gold deposits at Reko Diq in Balochistan province is nearly $200 billion. It is expected to generate $70 billion in free cash flow and $90 billion in operating cash flow over 37 years. 

Barrick Gold CEO Mark Bristow has said he’s “super excited” about the company’s Reko Diq copper-gold development in Pakistan. Speaking about the Pakistani mining project at a conference in the US State of Colorado, the South Africa-born Bristow said “This is like the early days in Chile, the Escondida discoveries and so on”, according to Mining.com, a leading industry publication. "It has enormous upside potential". He was referring to Pakistan’s untapped discovery potential. Escondida was the first discovery of copper in Chile which is now the world's largest producer and exporter of copper. Last year, the South American country exported nearly $20 billion worth of copper. 

“Copper has no substitutes,” Bristow continued. “It is as strategic as gold is precious, and we’re bringing new copper projects online just as the supply squeeze hits.” Comparing Reko Diq to Escondida, he said "walking across, there's more than one porphyry, significantly more than one, it's a real endowment for the people of Balochistan and greater Pakistan".  "It (Reko Diq) is world class, a gold mine on its own and a copper mine on its own". He expects a peak of 10,000 jobs during construction and 5,500-6,000 direct jobs to operate the Reko Diq mine afterwards. It will also create a lot of indirect job opportunities in the supply chain. "We are going to demonstrate (in Balochistan) that you can do something transformatory,  both socially and economically". 

The biggest foreign investor in Pakistan's mining sector is Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold with a projected investment of $5 billion. It is followed by the Saudi Manara Minerals with $540 million. World Bank's investment arm IFC has committed $300 million for Reko Diq. Pakistan's state-owned OGDCL has recently announced it is increasing its investment in Reko Diq to $627 million. 

The biggest challenge Pakistan faces is one of security in the remote areas where its mineral resources are located. Pakistani military chief General Asim Munir believes he can deal with it effectively. He made assurances to investors that his forces will ensure security. Another challenge is one of lack of political stability which is a matter of great concern to investors. 

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

New Infrastructure Brings Socioeconomic Development to Thar Desert

Pakistan Revives Reko Diq Mining Project

Kachhi Canal and N-70 Projects Boost Pakistan's Balochistan

Iftikhar Chaudhry Scared Away Foreign Investors

Musharraf Earned Legitimacy by Good Governance

Vindictive Judges Pursue Musharraf

Rare Earths at Reko Diq?


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Friday, April 4, 2025

Trump's Tariffs Shock the World

President Donald Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" has shocked the world. Nations and corporations were all expecting the US to increase tariffs but the scope and scale have caused severe tremors in the global economy.  There's a base level of 10% tariffs on all trading partners. Imports from China (54%), Vietnam (46%), Bangladesh (37%), Pakistan (29%), India (26%), Japan (24%) and the European Union (20%) are all subject to higher tariffs. Even the poor African nation of Lesotho (GDP: $2.5 billion) has not been spared. It is now subject to a 50% tariff on the jeans it exports to the United States. 

Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs. Source: CNBC

The charts showing President Trump's claimed tariffs on US imports by other countries have no resemblance to reality. For example, the US Commerce Department claims Pakistan imposes a 58% tariff on imports from the US. Pakistan's trade weighted average tariffs on the US goods were 7.3% compared to 9.9% that the US charges on imports from Pakistan, according to the Pakistani Ministry of Commerce. Financial writer James Surowiecki has reverse engineered what the Trump team did to come up with the "tariffs charged to the U.S.A." column. Surowiecki found that these figures were worked out by dividing the US trade deficit with each country by the total US imports from that country. For example, the US buys more goods from China than it sells to them - there is a goods trade deficit of $295 billion. The total amount of goods it buys from China is $440 billion. Dividing 295 by 440 gets you to 67%. 

Trump's Tariffs. Source: Express Tribune

Higher tariffs on imports will raise the prices paid by the US consumers for imported goods such as electronics and textiles. And higher prices tend to depress demand. So Pakistan's main exports of textiles to the US will mean higher prices and lower demand. However, what is important is the difference in tariffs charged on imports from various countries. The fact that tariffs applied to Pakistani exports are lower than those applied to Bangladeshi, Chinese and Vietnamese textiles could help Pakistan gain market share in the US. In addition, Pakistan could attract Chinese manufacturers' investment who could then export their products from Pakistan to the US market. 

The biggest fear expressed by most mainstream economists is that the Trump tariffs could trigger a global economic slowdown. Global investors have already sharply driven down major stock market indices across the globe.  China, the world's second biggest economy, has already retaliated with 34% additional tariffs on imports from the US. Wharton economist Professor Jeremy Siegel has compared Trump's tariffs to the Smoot-Hawley tariffs that caused the Great Depression of the 1930s.  Trump's tariffs put the effective tariff rate above the level of around 20% set by 1930’s Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. 

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

US-India Ties: Strategic or Transactional?

Ambassador Kishore Mahbubani: America Does Not Respect India

World Happiness Report: India Among Saddest Nations of the World

Indian-American Ashley Tellis Advocates For US Strategic Altruism with India

WB Poverty Update: India Biggest Contributor to Increase in Poverty

India in Crisis: Unemployment, Hunger Persist After Waves of Covid

Modi's Blunders and Delusions 

India's Israel Envy: What If Modi Attacks Pakistan?

Project Azm: Pakistan to Develop 5th Generation Fighter Jet

Pakistan Navy Modernization

Pakistan's Sea-Based Second Strike Capability

Are Some Pakistanis Feeding Modi's Delusions of Grandeur?

Is the West Unwittingly Helping Modi Realize His Akhand Bharat Hindutva Dream?

Has Pakistan Lost All Wars? 




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Friday, March 28, 2025

Pakistan to Explore Legalization of Cryptocurrency

Islamabad is establishing the Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC) to look into regulating and legalizing the use of cryptocurrencies, according to media reports. Cryptocurrency refers to digital currencies that can be used to make purchases or investments using encryption algorithms. US President Donald Trump's endorsement of cryptocurrencies and creation of a "bitcoin reserve" has boosted investors’ confidence in it.  


The State Bank of Pakistan, the nation's central bank, has not authorized any individuals or organizations to carry out the sale, purchase, exchange, and investment of digital currencies, coins, and tokens. But the country has not officially banned the use of cryptocurrencies either, allowing about 20 million users to engage in crypto transactions. “We are coming on number three and four globally and there are many blockchain technology opportunities in Pakistan", said Bilal Saqib, the chair of the PCC.  

Top Countries Ranked By Global Crypto Adoption Index. Source: Chainalysis

Saqib told Bloomberg that regulatory sandboxes were being developed to create fast-track systems for crypto startups, enabling them to operate within a controlled and compliant environment.

There are media reports that Pakistan is working on lower electricity tariffs to attract crypto mining and blockchain-based data centers, aiming to utilize surplus power at marginal costs while fostering growth in the digital asset industry. Demand for grid electricity has been declining amid a solar power boom in the country. 

Cryptocurrencies are managed in a blockchain, which is a digital ledger that utilizes blocks of data and time stamps to create a digital transaction record.  Similar to a traditional digital spreadsheet, a blockchain contains a log of transactions. However, it uses a distributed structure in which data is stored on multiple machines, and all copies need to match before a transaction is considered valid. Blockchain in finance allows for faster and cheaper transfers and more accurate accounting records. Blockchain technology is seen as the future of fintech (financial technology). It can help streamline tens of billions of dollars worth of remittances from overseas Pakistanis.

Downplaying the fear of the abuse of cryptocurrencies for criminal activity, Saqib told the media: “Globally 0.24 percent cryptocurrency transactions are used for wrong things,” he said. “We want to use this technology for other things like real estate, agriculture and to unlock their liquidity.”

Talking about taxation, Saqib said the government intends to implement a “balanced pro-growth tax structure” to encourage foreign investment in the crypto sector. He believes cryptocurrency can significantly boost Pakistan’s fintech sector, positioning the country as a regional leader in digital finance. 

There is a lot of interest in enabling the use of crypto currencies around the world. It is not just developing nations like Pakistan. There are many countries actively developing regulations for cryptocurrencies, with some groupings like the EU implementing measures to protect users and combat criminal activities, while others, like the US, are slowly approaching regulation through existing market regulators like the SEC and CFTC. The jury is still out on the potential for success of such efforts. 


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Saturday, March 22, 2025

World Happiness Report 2025: Poor Ranking Makes Indians Very Unhappy

Pakistan has outranked India yet again on the World Happiness Index, making Indians very very unhappy. Indian media commentators' strong negative emotional reaction to their nation's poor ranking  betrays how unhappy they are even as they insist they are happier than their neighbors. Coming from the privileged upper castes, these commentators call the report "absurd", citing India's higher per capita incomes and its space program. They seem detached from the real conditions in which the vast majority of Indians find themselves. They fail to acknowledge the high levels of inequality and unemployment prevalent in their country. A CNBC report last year found that one billion Indians have a per capita income of just $1,000 a year, lower than that of sub-Saharan Africans. 92.5% of Indians live in conditions similar to or worse than those experienced by the poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa. No wonder India ranks alongside the poorest sub-Saharan African nations in the World Happiness Report 2025. 

World Happiness Map. Source: World Happiness Report 2025


Pakistan (109) has not only outranked India (118) but also ranked higher than Sri Lanka (133) and Bangladesh (134). The authors of the 2035 happiness report said new evidence indicates that engaging in acts of generosity and believing in the kindness of others are “significant predictors of happiness, even more so than earning a higher salary”.  The family is a source of joy and support for most people, the report found. Couples who live with at least one child, or couples who live with children and members of their extended family, have especially high average life satisfaction.

Income Inequality in India


An inequality report on India found that 92.5% of Indians live in economic conditions similar to those found in the poorest nations of sub-Saharan Africa. Only 0.5% of Indians enjoy incomes comparable to average Singaporeans, while 2% have incomes of average Polish citizens and 5% similar to Mexicans. 

India Among Most Unequal Nations. Source: World Inequality Report


Finland tops the World Happiness Report 2025 rankings, making it the happiest country for the eighth year in a row. It is followed by Denmark and Iceland. Other nations in the top 15 include Sweden, the Netherlands, Costa Rica, and Norway.

Wealth Held By Top 1% in Asian Countries. Source: Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report 2024


Even the higher-income Indians are unhappy. Millions of them are voting with their feet and leaving their country of birth in droves. India is losing its best and brightest to the West, particularly to the United States, at an increasingly rapid pace. A 2023 study of the 1,000 top scorers in the 2010 entrance exams to the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) — a network of prestigious institutions of higher learning based in 23 Indian cities — revealed the scale of the problem. Around 36% migrated abroad, and of the top 100 scorers, 62% left the country, according to a report in the science journal Nature.  Nearly two-thirds of those leaving India are highly educated, having received academic or vocational training. This is the highest for any country, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Example of The Great Indian Brain Drain. Source: Boston Political Review

Brain drain is defined as the loss of precious human capital of a nation. It is a “consequence of an education system designed for ‘selecting’ the best and brightest in an economy that is still too controlled and cannot create opportunities for its best and brightest”, according to Indian economist Shruti Rajagopalan. High-profile examples of India's human capital loss include Satya Nadella (Microsoft), Sundar Pichai (Google), Shantanu Narayen (Adobe), Arvind Krishna (IBM) and Ajay Banga (World Bank). 

Foreign-Born STEM Workers in America. Source: American Immigration Council


Growing number of Indian students are going abroad for higher education each year and 90% of them never return home after completing their studies.  In 2022, the number of Indian students leaving the country for higher education reached a six-year high of 770,000. And a 2021 report estimated that around two million Indian students would be studying abroad by 2024. 

Many developing countries are experiencing brain drain. But India is losing its best brightest at a much faster rate than others. Some call it "The Great Indian Brain Drain". This is the reason why Indians in the United States are the best educated and the highest earning group.  In a recently published book titled "The Other One Percent", authors Sanjoy Chakravorty, Devesh Kapur and Nirvikar Singh explain this phenomenon. 

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Guess Why Pakistani Analyst Uzair Younus is Making Headlines in India!

Ambassador Kishore Mahbubani: America Does Not Respect India

World Happiness Report: India Among Saddest Nations of the World

Balakot and Kashmir: Fact Checkers Expose Indian Lies

WB Poverty Update: India Biggest Contributor to Increase in Poverty

India in Crisis: Unemployment, Hunger Persist After Waves of Covid

Modi's Blunders and Delusions 

India's Israel Envy: What If Modi Attacks Pakistan?

Project Azm: Pakistan to Develop 5th Generation Fighter Jet

Pakistan Navy Modernization

Pakistan's Sea-Based Second Strike Capability

Are Some Pakistanis Feeding Modi's Delusions of Grandeur?

Is the West Unwittingly Helping Modi Realize His Akhand Bharat Hindutva Dream?

Has Pakistan Lost All Wars? 





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Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Pakistan Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Points to Growth in Manufacturing

Pakistan Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), jointly launched by Habib Bank (HBL) and S&P Global, is showing sustained growth in manufacturing for the last several months.  It has been consistently above 50, indicating expansion. This indicator disagrees with contraction reported by Pakistan Bureau and Statistics (PBS) Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) indicator. What accounts for this discrepancy? Is it because the LSM tracks only a subset of industries tracked by PMI? Is there a difference in methodology? 

Pakistan PMI Trend. Source: S&P Global

Here's one plausible explanation offered by analyst Humaira Qamar at HBL: "As per the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Large scale manufacturing (LSM) contracted 1.8% in the latter half of 2024. However, excluding the hefty decline in the low-weight furniture segment, LSM trended positively. Our PMI release suggests that the recovery has extended into 2025, with demand-side conditions taking cue from a sharp reduction in the policy rate". 

Another possible explanation for the discrepancy between PMI and LSM can be seen in the fact that power generation for the grid, a key component of the LSM indicator, is in constant and substantial decline. However, the power generation data tracked by PBS excludes rapidly rising solar electricity production by consumers, including industrial consumers in the country.  Pakistan's grid-connected electricity production and electricity consumption are given as around 110 TWh for 2024, but appear to be declining compared to 2023, which contradicts expectations of increasing demand, but could be a sign of the massive expansion of solar energy, according to an article in PV magazine titled  ‘The Solar Blitz’: How crisis-ridden Pakistan is leading the world on the ‘Solar March’.  Based on rather imprecise Chinese solar panel export figures and extensive satellite imagery, Bloomberg energy analyst Jenny Chase has concluded that rapid solar expansion in Pakistan is real. 

In August 2024, Chase tweeted as follows: "Pakistan's energy regulator, NEPRA, notes that power consumption is down 9.1% year on year in 2023. NEPRA attributes the drop mainly to high power prices cutting economic activity and making residential consumers curb consumption, with rooftop solar only a third factor. But NEPRA doesn't know how much solar the country has, either. We think it has about 12.7GW of solar already (compared with 50GW on-grid power capacity) and will add 10-15GW of solar in 2024". 

In addition to the decline in grid power generation, the reported drag in LSM growth is primarily due to a few low-weight sub-sectors, which have more than offset positive momentum in key sub-sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and POL (petroleum, oils and lubricants), according to the State Bank of Pakistan, as reported by the Express Tribune. 

Pakistan Manufacturing Orders, Output and Employment. Source: S&P Global


High-frequency data like monthly PMI help in gauging real time economic activity in terms of orders, output and employment in the manufacturing sector. Here's an excerpt of the HBL/S&P Global PMI report for February 2025 published in March:

Manufacturers in Pakistan also responded to strengthened operating conditions by raising their staffing levels in February, marking the second increase in as many months. Several firms commented that they required additional capacity in response to higher production requirements, while others mentioned longer operating hours. Increased capacity allowed firms to stay on top of outstanding business in February, as indicated by a sustained and steeper fall in backlogs of work. The latest depletion was the most pronounced in five months. Finally, companies expressed confidence in the future path for output during February, with optimism remaining marked overall. This optimism was underpinned by hopes for further new product launches and improvements in product quality, alongside expectations of softer price pressures.

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Tuesday, March 11, 2025

Trump's Policies Ringing Alarm Bells in Delhi

"We are in Zelenskyy’s shoes now", read a recent headline in a major Indian newspaper. There are similar concerns being raised in other world capitals in Asia and Europe after President Donald Trump's decisions to cut military supplies and stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine following a White House summit with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine who is facing the military might of Russia on the battlefield in Europe.    

From L to R: Putin, Trump, Xi and Modi

“My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” said Friedrich Merz, Germany's chancellor-elect. Singapore Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen said the  US has “changed from liberator to great disruptor to a landlord seeking rent”.

The events of last week have revived the memory of a quote attributed to former US Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger who is reported to have said: "The word will go out to the nations of the world that it may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."

New Delhi has been counting on Washington's help to fend off hostile China which sits on its doorsteps. There are some Indians who believe Russia would come to India's help in the event of war with China.  But former US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan threw cold water on this idea when he said: "In fact, it (Russia) is becoming the junior partner to China.  And in that way, they would side with China over India any day of the week". 

Trump has fundamentally changed the geopolitics of Asia and Europe. Old alliances no longer matter. Now it's all about each transaction which Trump wants to ensure favors the United States. 

During the last Trump Administration in 2019, India's friends in Washington argued for a US policy of "strategic altruism" with India. The new Trump administration seems to be rejecting such talk. Prior to his recent meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House, President Donald Trump described India as the "worst abuser of tariffs" and announced "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian imports to the United States.  At the same time, Mr. Trump cracked down on both legal and illegal immigration from India. His administration is deporting thousands of illegal Indian immigrants in handcuffs and shackles on US military aircraft. Meanwhile, stringent new regulations on temporary work visas could significantly delay visa processing times and reduce the number of Indian workers employed in the United States on H1B visas. 

Tariffs Comparison. Source: BBC


In a 2019 piece titled "The India Dividend: New Delhi Remains Washington’s Best Hope in Asia" published in Foreign Affairs journal, authors Robert Blackwill and Ashley Tellis argued that the Trump Administration should continue the US policy of "strategic altruism" with India that began with US-India nuclear agreement. They asked President Trump to ignore the fact that the US companies and economy have only marginally benefited, if at all, from this policy. They see India as a "superpower in waiting" and urge Washington to focus on the goal of having India as an ally to check China's rise. They see Chinese support for India's arch-rival Pakistan and China’s growing weight in South Asia and beyond as a threat to India. 

India Tops Source Countries For H1B Visa Holders. Source: USCIS


Trump's trade and immigration policies are going to hurt India at a time when its economic growth is declining and job growth is stagnant.  The latest Indian annual budget has offered middle class tax relief to spur growth.  But economists warn it may not be enough for the vast majority of Indians, whose income still falls below taxable limits and who may still be reeling from the impact of the COVID pandemic, which devastated their earnings, according to a report in Aljazeera. “There is a vast base [of people] where recovery has not come back after the pandemic,” says Kaushik Basu, professor of economics at Cornell University. “We see this in data that the agricultural labour base has increased. And agriculture may well be just a parking spot.”

Illegal immigration from India to the US has dramatically increased on Prime Minister Modi's watch. A Pew Research Center report said that as of 2022, India ranked third, after Mexico and El Salvador, on the list of countries with the largest number of undocumented immigrants — 725,000 — living in the U.S.

India has a serious unemployment problem, particularly for the young people entering the job market by the millions each year. This problem is concealed by headline  economic growth figures highlighted by the Modi government. At the same time, India is losing its best and brightest in a massive brain drain. 

President Trump has clearly not taken the advice of India's friends in Washington. He is in no mood for "strategic altruism". Instead, the Trump Administration has signaled that it will treat ties with India as just another transactional relationship. 

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Guess Why Pakistani Analyst Uzair Younus is Making Headlines in India!

Ambassador Kishore Mahbubani: America Does Not Respect India

World Happiness Report: India Among Saddest Nations of the World

Indian-American Ashley Tellis Advocates For US Strategic Altruism with India

WB Poverty Update: India Biggest Contributor to Increase in Poverty

India in Crisis: Unemployment, Hunger Persist After Waves of Covid

Modi's Blunders and Delusions 

India's Israel Envy: What If Modi Attacks Pakistan?

Project Azm: Pakistan to Develop 5th Generation Fighter Jet

Pakistan Navy Modernization

Pakistan's Sea-Based Second Strike Capability

Are Some Pakistanis Feeding Modi's Delusions of Grandeur?

Is the West Unwittingly Helping Modi Realize His Akhand Bharat Hindutva Dream?

Has Pakistan Lost All Wars? 




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Tuesday, March 4, 2025

Growing China-Pakistan Space Cooperation

A Pakistani astronaut is scheduled to be the first non-Chinese person to go to Tiangong, the Chinese Space Station, according to media reports. Last year, China put a Pakistani satellite ICUBE-Q aboard its historic Chiang’e 6 mission into the moon’s orbit, designed to retrieve samples from the little explored far side of the moon. Weeks later, Beijing put another Pakistani communication satellite into orbit. The two sides have also announced that China’s Chang’e 8 moon lander mission in 2028 will carry a Pakistani rover to explore the moon's surface. 


Space science is a lot more than rocket science. It goes well beyond building booster rockets for satellite launches. It includes various fields like physics, astronomy, biology, chemistry, and engineering to study phenomena in space and collect and analyze data about activities on earth.  Pakistan-China space cooperation is yet another confirmation of the close and growing scientific ties between the two countries. Tens of thousands of Pakistani students are currently attending Chinese universities which are among the best in the world. Thousands of Pakistani engineers and scientists are closely working with their Chinese counterparts on multiple projects. It is great opportunity for Pakistanis to learn from astounding scientific and technological achievements of their Chinese counterparts. 

Chinese researchers dominate global AI research, according to Marco Polo which tracks global AI talent. China dominates the top 10 science institutions, with the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) and Tsinghua University taking the top three spots, according to the Science Journal Nature. Only two non-Chinese institutions broke into the top 10 – the Max Planck Society in Germany at No 4 and the French National Center for Scientific Research at No 10. The top three US institutions – the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard University and Stanford University – were ranked at 13th, 16th and 20th, respectively.

Analysts believe that China's real focus is on industrial applications for Artificial Intelligence (AI) rather than chatbots like ChatGPT or DeepSeek. Chinese are working to use the underlying technology to develop affordable, commercially viable business solutions, according to Jacob Dreyer who recently wrote an article for science journal Nature. "Its applications can then be exported, especially to lower-income countries. In other words, China’s target is not necessarily ‘frontier AI’, but ‘mass-market AI’. Its emerging AI playbook mirrors its approach to other technologies, such as electric vehicles and clean energy: not the first to innovate, but the first to make them affordable for widespread use". 


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