Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Showing posts with label Sri Lanka. Show all posts

Saturday, July 15, 2023

Is the West Unwittingly Helping Modi Realize His Akhand Bharat Hindutva Dream?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recently opened a new parliament building in New Delhi. Prominently displayed in this new building is a provocative map of "Akhand Bharat" (Greater India) that includes neighboring nations of Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka as part of India. After the inauguration, Modi's parliamentary affairs minister Pralhad Joshi tweeted a picture of the mural and wrote: “The resolve is clear – Akhand Bharat.” Akhand Bharat is part of the Fascist Hindutva ideology of Modi's party. In the last two months since this chauvinistic display, the tight embrace and arming of Modi by the West is raising fears of destabilizing South Asia. Pakistani officials have recently talked about a revision of the country's "full-spectrum" nuclear doctrine with the addition of "zero-range" nuclear weapons as a deterrent against western-armed Hindutva-fueled Indian aggression.

Akhand Bharat Mural in Indian Parliament. Source: Pralhad Joshi

Akhand Bharat:

Earlier this year, Prime Minister Modi's ideological leader chief Mohan Bhagwat, the head of the right-wing Hindu organization Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), said ‘Akhand Bharat’ was the undisputed truth and a divided Bharat was a nightmare.

Now the Akhand Bharat mural and its justification by an Indian minister have drawn condemnation from Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan. “The gratuitous assertion of ‘Akhand Bharat’ is a manifestation of a revisionist and expansionist mindset that seeks to subjugate the identity and culture of not only India’s neighboring countries but also its own religious minorities,” said Pakistani foreign office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch.

Western Arms Deals:

Large arms deals have been recently announced during Prime Minister Modi's recent visits to Washington and Paris. New weapons acquisitions range from modern fighter jets to submarines. India is already the world's largest arms importer. India's defense budget ($81 billion) is the fourth largest in the world, according to Stockholm-based think tank SIPRI. Coming soon after the unveiling of the Akhand Bharat mural, these new modern lethal weapons' purchases by New Delhi are seen as a serious threat by India's neighbors.

America's Bad Bet:

While the western nations are seeking an alliance with India to counter rising China, the Hindutva leadership of India has no intention of confronting China. In a piece titled “America’s Bad Bet on India”, Indian-American analyst Ashley Tellis noted that the Biden administration had “overlooked India’s democratic erosion and its unhelpful foreign policy choices” in the hopes that the US can “solicit” New Delhi’s “contributions toward coalition defense”.

Earlier this year, India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar confirmed New Delhi's unwillingness to confront China in an interview: “Look they (China) are a bigger economy. What am I going to do? As a smaller economy, I am going to pick up a fight with bigger economy? It is not a question of being a reactionary; it is a question of common sense.”

Modi's India is driven much more by a desire to bring back what the right-wing Hindus see as the "glory days" of India through "Hindu Raj" of the entire South Asia region, including Pakistan. The arms and technology being given to Modi will more likely be used against India's smaller neighbors, not against China.

Pakistan's Likely Response:

General Khalid Kidwai, Advisor to Pakistan’s National Command Authority and pioneer Director General of Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, has warned about the ‘toxic mix of poisonous ideology’ posing a serious threat to strategic stability in South Asia. “I have no hesitation in stating that minimum Pakistani counter measures would be put in place if a reckless imbalance is induced in South Asia, it is not a warning, it's a contingency foreseen,” General Kidwai added, according to Pakistani media reports.

In May this year, retired Lt. Gen. Khalid Kidwai provided new details of Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine. He has talked about "zero range" nuclear weapons. Prior to this, the officially acknowledged lowest range in Pakistan’s nuclear inventory was the Nasr, or Hatf-9 ballistic missile, with a range of 60 kilometers (about 37 miles). Kidwai described two dimensions of Pakistan's Full Spectrum Deterrence: “horizontal,” which comprises of a robust land, air and sea inventory of a variety of nuclear weapons, and “vertical,” which encapsulates adequate range coverage of its vectors from “zero meters to 2,750 kilometers”with “destructive yields suited for strategic, operational, and tactical levels.” Such an elaborate arsenal, he argued, provides Pakistan with a “strategic shield”, blunting the extant conventional asymmetry with India. Most significant was his statement that “vertically the spectrum encapsulates adequate range coverage from 0 meters to 2,750 kilometers [about 1,700 miles] as well as nuclear weapons destructive yields at three tiers—strategic, operational, and tactical.” Talking about "zero range" weapons, analyst Sitara Noor explained it as follows in a recent article that appeared in Foreign Policy magazine:

"Talk of zero-range weapons suggests that Pakistan is either going to develop artillery shells as the United States, Soviet Union, and United Kingdom did during the Cold War—raising questions of whether it is going to be an M28/M29 Davy Crockett-style recoilless rifle system, the smallest weapon in the U.S. nuclear arsenal, developed during the 1950s as a front-line weapon with yields as low as a fraction of a kiloton—or it could be a hint that Pakistan could possibly lay nuclear land mines across the India-Pakistan border to deter Indian advances. Observers, especially in India, are left wondering whether this statement is based on some existing scientific research and design testing and necessary doctrinal thought process. Kidwai’s statement does not provide any such details, and in the spirit of ambiguity that Pakistan seems to have benefited from, there is unlikely to be a follow-up soon to clear the air".

Summary:

The West is making a "bad bet" on Modi's India as a check against rising China. Modi and his fellow right-wing Hindus have no interest in confronting China. They are much more obsessed in realizing their Hindutva dream of Akhand Bharat (Greater India) by attempting to subjugate their smaller neighbors. This obsession could lead to a destabilization of the South Asia region, including an India-Pakistan nuclear war.

Vast Majority of Indians Believe Nuclear War Against Pakistan is Winnable

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Wednesday, March 22, 2023

World Happiness Report 2023: India Among World's Saddest Nations

India occupies 126th position among 137 nations ranked in the World Happiness Report 2023 released by the Sustainable Development Solutions Network. In South Asia, Pakistan (score 4.555) ranks 108, Sri Lanka 112, Bangladesh (4.282) 118 and India 126 (4.036). Only Taliban-ruled Afghanistan ranks worse at 137. Finland is the happiest nation in the world, followed by Denmark and Iceland in 2nd and 3rd place.

Least Happy Countries in 2023. Source: Quartz

Bottom Third Countries in World Happiness Rankings. Source: World Happiness Report

The latest country rankings show life evaluations (answers to the Cantril ladder question) for each country, averaged over a 3 year period from 2020-2022. The Cantril ladder asks respondents to think of a ladder, with the best possible life for them being a 10 and the worst possible life being a 0. They are then asked to rate their own current lives on that 0 to 10 scale. The rankings are from nationally representative samples for the years 2020-2022.

World Happiness Map 2023. Source: Visual Capitalist

Happiness Scores Trend:

After climbing to a high of 5.65 in 2019, Pakistan's happiness scores have declined in recent years, reaching a low of 4.52 during the Covid pandemic. The most recent value is 4.555 for 2023.

Recent Happiness Scores in Pakistan. Source: The Global Economy

India's happiness scores have been declining every year since 2013, reaching a low of 3.78 during the Covid pandemic. The most recent value is 4.036 for 2023.

Recent Happiness Scores in India. Source: The Global Economy

Causes of Unhappiness:

Lack of social connections during covid lockdown, along with severe unemployment, high inflation and healthcare worries, took a toll on mental health of Indians, according to the experts quoted by the Indian media.

Suicide Rates in India and Pakistan. Source: World Bank

Rising Suicides:

Indian experts' observations are supported by the Indian government data showing a marked increase in suicide rate in India. India saw the highest suicide rate (of 12 suicides per 100,000 population) since the beginning of this century, according to The Hindu. Experts say a lot of suicides would have gone unreported and that the numbers and suicide rates could have gone up in 2022 as well.

Suicide Rate in India. Source: The Hindu

High Unemployment:

India's unemployment rate rose to 7.45% in February 2023 from 7.14% in the previous month, according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). CMIE’s weekly labor market analysis showed a marginal improvement in India’s labor participation rate to 39.92% in February compared to 39.8% in January 2023 resulting in an increase in the labour force from 440.8 million to 442.9 million.

"India’s LPR is much lower than global levels. According to the World Bank, the modeled ILO estimate for the world in 2020 was 58.6 per cent. The same model places India’s LPR at 46 percent. India is a large country and its low LPR drags down the world LPR as well. Implicitly, most other countries have a much higher LPR than the world average. According to the World Bank’s modeled ILO estimates, there are only 17 countries worse than India on LPR. Most of these are middle-eastern countries. These are countries such as Jordan, Yemen, Algeria, Iraq, Iran, Egypt, Syria, Senegal and Lebanon. Some of these countries are oil-rich and others are unfortunately mired in civil strife. India neither has the privileges of oil-rich countries nor the civil disturbances that could keep the LPR low. Yet, it suffers an LPR that is as low as seen in these countries".

Labor Participation Rates in India and Pakistan. Source: World Bank/ILO

Labor Participation Rates for Selected Nations. Source: World Bank/ILO

Youth unemployment for ages15-24 in India is 24.9%, the highest in South Asia region. It is 14.8% in Bangladesh 14.8% and 9.2% in Pakistan, according to the International Labor Organization and the World Bank.

Youth Unemployment in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Source: ILO, WB

In spite of the headline GDP growth figures highlighted by the Indian and world media, the fact is that it has been jobless growth. The labor participation rate (LPR) in India has been falling for more than a decade. The LPR in India has been below Pakistan's for several years, according to the International Labor Organization (ILO).

Indian GDP Sectoral Contribution Trend. Source: Ashoka Mody

Even before the COVID19 pandemic, India's labor participation rate was around 43%, lower than its neighbors'. Now it has slipped further to about 40%. Meanwhile, the Indian government has reported an 8.4% jump in economic growth in the July-to-September period compared with a contraction of 7.4% for the same period a year earlier. This raises the following questions: Has India had jobless growth? Or its GDP figures are fudged? If the Indian economy fails to deliver for the common man, will Prime Minister Narendra Modi step up his anti-Pakistan and anti-Muslim rhetoric to maintain his popularity among Hindus?

Indian Employment Trends By Sector. Source: CMIE Via Business Standard

Hunger Crisis:

India ranks 94th among 107 nations ranked by World Hunger Index in 2020. Other South Asians have fared better: Pakistan (88), Nepal (73), Bangladesh (75), Sri Lanka (64) and Myanmar (78) – and only Afghanistan has fared worse at 99th place. The COVID19 pandemic has worsened India's hunger and malnutrition. Tens of thousands of Indian children were forced to go to sleep on an empty stomach as the daily wage workers lost their livelihood and Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in the South Asian nation. Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan opted for "smart lockdown" that reduced the impact on daily wage earners. China, the place where COVID19 virus first emerged, is among 17 countries with the lowest level of hunger.

World Hunger Rankings 2020. Source: World Hunger Index Report

India Among Worst Hit:

India has a 17.3% child wasting rate, the worst in the South Asia region. Child stunting is also extremely high across South Asia. “Data from 1991 through 2014 for Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan showed that stunting is concentrated among children from households facing multiple forms of deprivation, including poor dietary diversity, low levels of maternal education, and household poverty,” the World Hunger Report said. China, the place where COVID19 virus first emerged, is among 17 countries with the lowest level of hunger.

Hunger and malnutrition are worsening in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia because of the coronavirus pandemic, especially in low-income communities or those already stricken by continued conflict.

India has performed particularly poorly because of one of the world's strictest lockdowns imposed by Prime Minister Modi to contain the spread of the virus.

Monday, September 19, 2022

Hasina Seeks Modi's Help to Survive Bangladesh's Economic Crisis

Shaikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, recently visited New Delhi to seek political and economic assistance from the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This summit was preceded by Bangladesh Foreign Minister Abdul Momen's trip to India where he said, "I've requested Modi government to do whatever is necessary to sustain Sheikh Hasina's government". Upon her return from India, Sheikh Hasina told the news media in Dhaka, "They (India) have shown much sincerity and I have not returned empty handed". It has long been an open secret that Indian intelligence agency RAW helped install Shaikh Hasina as Prime Minister of Bangladesh, and her Awami League party relies on New Delhi's support to stay in power. Bangladesh Foreign Minister Abdul Momen has described India-Bangladesh as one between husband and wife. In an interview with Indian newspaper 'Ajkal,' he said, "Relation between the both countries is very cordial. It's much like the relationship between husband and wife. Though some differences often arise, these are resolved quickly." Both Bangladeshi and Indian officials have reportedly said that Sheikh Hasina "has built a house of cards".

Bangladesh PM Shaikh Hasina (L) with Indian PM Narendra Modi

British Indian analyst Dr. Avinash Paliwal explains Shaikh Hasina's current dilemma as follows: "Politically reliant on New Delhi, she (Hasina) is finding it increasingly difficult to manage the ramifications of India's turn towards Hindu nationalism that misuses migration from Bangladesh and the Rohingya crisis for domestic electoral gain". Justice Surendra Kumar Sinha, Bangladesh's former Chief Justice, has said India is backing Sheikh Hasina's autocratic government for its own interest. Here's how prominent Indian journalist SNM Abdi explains Indian intelligence agency RAW's influence in Bangladesh: "India wields more influence in Bangladesh than the Security Council’s five permanent members put together. The Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) is the most dreaded outfit in the neighboring country surpassing even the brutally unforgiving RAB (Rapid Action Battalion). Hasina lives in mortal fear of RAW. She knows that she will be toppled if she displeases India. So she has adopted the policy of pleasing India to retain power at any cost".

Bangladesh has received wide acclaim for its remarkable economic success under the authoritarian leadership of Shaikh Hasina over the last decade. She has jailed many of her political opponents and hanged others. She has tamed the country's judiciary and gagged Bangladeshi mainstream media. What has helped her retain power is the fact she has New Delhi's support and she has succeeded in delivering rapid economic growth that has helped improve the lives of ordinary Bangladeshis. However, a combination of current global inflation and the resulting economic crisis is threatening to unravel this formula.

Bangladesh's currency has lost 11% of its value against the US dollar in just one week, import bill has soared by nearly 44%, forex reserves of $37 billion are falling and the revenue from ready made garments export and remittances is not keeping pace with the fast rising imports. Bangladesh is now seeking a $4.5 billion loan to cope with the situation. In addition, India has agreed to trade with Bangladesh in local currencies to reduce pressure on forex reserves.

Bangladesh is not the only economy in trouble. The European Union, United Kingdom, Japan, Sri Lanka and Pakistan are also experiencing severe economic pain. India's forex reserves are falling and its current account deficit is rising as foreign investors pull out. High energy prices and the strong US dollar are hurting most of the world economies. Food and energy prices have shot up due to the Russia-Ukraine war. The US currency driven by aggressive US Federal Reserve policy of rate hikes has reached new highs. A stronger dollar for the US means cheaper imports, a tailwind for efforts to contain inflation, and record relative purchasing power for Americans. But the rest of the world is straining under the dollar’s rise, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

Easter Bombings in Sri Lanka; Belt Road Forum 2019 in Beijing

Who carried out the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks at churches and hotels in Sri Lanka? Why? Is it a domestic group with outside help? What is India's role in it? Why did the attackers use India as their training base? Did ISIS inspire the attackers? With Muslims facing revenge attacks, what will happen to inter-ethnic and inter-religious relations in the island nation at the Southern tip of India? Will there be a renewed civil war? How will it affect South India and the South Asia region?

Tamil Population in India and Sri Lanka

What was the agenda of the Belt and Road Forum 2019 attended by 37 world leaders including Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan in Beijing? What did President Xi Jinping, Prime Minister Imran Khan and other world leaders say at this summit? How will this affect the next phase of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of BRI (Belt Road Initiative)? How will concerns ranging from debt sustainability and inclusive growth to environmental impact be addressed?

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan at BRF 2019 in Beijing

Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with Misbah Azam and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://youtu.be/O6pTJXIf7g0

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Indian Agent Kulbhushan Jadhav Operated From Iran

What Can Pakistan Learn From Sri Lanka?

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: Myths and Facts

Chabahar vs Gwadar Ports

Did America Contribute to the Rise of ISIS?

Riaz Haq's YouTube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Sunday, December 10, 2017

Nepal Voters Reject Pro-India Ruling Party to Elect Left-Wing Alliance

Media reports indicate that pro-India Nepali Congress Party (NCP) led by Sher Bahadur Deuba is heading toward a major defeat in parliamentary elections. Nepalese people have shown strong preference for the Opposition left-wing alliance led K.P. Sharma Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachandathat that could garner two-thirds majority in the national legislature. The 2015-16 blockade of Nepal by India appears to have played a decisive role in voters' choice.

Nepal's Capital Kathmandu

Indian Blockade of Nepal:

In 2015, landlocked Nepal passed a new constitution with 90% of the votes in the national legislature. India did not like some of its provision and shut its border to put pressure on Nepal to force a change. Indian government denied it was responsible for the blockade. But no one could deny the ground reality of a major economic and humanitarian crisis in Nepal because of its total dependence on India for food, fuel and other supplies.

Nepali Response:

Leaders of the Nepali Congress which has always been close to New Delhi failed to unequivocally condemn the Indian action. However, the left-wing parties put the blame squarely on India for the crisis the crisis that caused a lot of pain in Nepal.

China vs India:

Nepal is a small landlocked country sandwiched between China to the north and India to the South. However, Nepal has had close ties to India because the two share a common religion and culture. Nepal has relied on India for almost all of its supplies.

The left-wing alliance favors closer ties with China. It seeks to reduce dependence on India by opening up supply routes through China, including a Kathmandu-Lhasa train link which goes over difficult terrain. India strongly opposes it for geopolitical reasons.

Nepalese Resentment of India:

When a devastating earthquake hit Nepal in 2015, Indian media descended en masse to portray the benevolence of Indians for the victims of disaster. The Nepalese found them so overbearing that they started a new hashtag #GoHomeIndianMedia which tracked for weeks.

Source: Nepal's Himal Magazine

The Indian media also attacked Pakistan's relief efforts in Nepal while it attempted to amplify India's response to disaster. Nepal's Himal magazine's cartoon mocked the Indian media by showing a photojournalist popping out of a smiling aid carrying Indian soldier's pocket.

Superpower Delusions:

Indian leaders have superpower delusions. They express such delusions by attempting to intimidate their neighbors--particularly smaller neighbors. Indians have stirred trouble in Bangladesh by using their intelligence service; they recruited, armed and trained LTTE terrorists in Sri Lanka; they blockaded Nepal; and they are using Afghan soil to wage proxy war of terror against Pakistan. All of these activities are not winning them any friends in the neighborhood.

Summary:

Nepali voters have rejected pro-India politicians and voted in left-wing alliance that seeks better ties with China. The 2015-16 blockade of Nepal by India appears to have played a decisive role in voters' choice. It's yet another reminder that India's attempts to intimidate its neighbors are backfiring. It's time for Modi and company to re-evaluate their foreign policy that seems to be guided by the Kautilya Doctrine that says: "Your neighbor is your enemy; your neighbor's neighbor is your friend."

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Indian Media's Nepal Quake Coverage Disaster

India's Kautilya Doctrine

Why is India Sponsoring Terror in Pakistan?

India's Superpower Delusions

Pakistani Arms Helped Defeat LTTE in Sri Lanka

BJP Makes "Akhand Bharat" Part of Indian Textbooks

Earthquakes in South Asia

China-Pakistan Ties

Friday, November 3, 2017

Terror in New York; Bin Laden Files; Trump-Russia Probe; Cricket in Pakistan

How is ISIS-inspired terror spreading in the West? What can be done to stop self-radicalization of lone wolves through social media? Was Trump's reaction to the NY terror report appropriate? Why is there such a difference in media coverage and leaders' reaction between terrorism incidents and frequent and more numerous shooting deaths in America? How does the domestic politics affect it?

What do the Bin Laden's Abbottabad files released by the CIA say about Al Qaeda leaders' ties with Iran and Pakistan? Is Iran really assisting Al Qaeda with arms, money and training of Al Qaeda operatives? Is there any evidence of Pakistan's help in hiding Bin Laden in Abbottabad? Why are the Afghan commanders in Loghar province talking about moving to Iran?

What are the charges filed by Independent Counsel Robert Mueller against Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort and foreign policy advisor George Papadopoulos? Who's next to be charged in Trump Russia collusion probe? Jerrod Kushner? Is the special prosecutor working his way to the Trump inner circle? Will there be a repeat of the 1974 Saturday Night Massacre if Trump decides to fire Mueller?

How did Pakistan attract Sri Lanka team to play an international T20 match in Lahore? And at the same rise in rankings to the number 1 spot for T20 cricket? Is it a vote of increasing confidence in Pakistan?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with Misbah Azam and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1l_lXAgFW6z9-9He-fFbqYntt6lRPQXVX/view?usp=sharing

https://youtu.be/R7BP2sxPkTY

Related Links:

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ISIS Terrorism: Did CIA Enable ISIS?

Are Russia and Iran Supporting Afghan Taliban?

Islamophobia, Mass Shootings and Terrorism

Seeing Bin Laden Killing in Broader Perspective

Independent Counsel For Trump Campaign's Russia Collusion

Cricket in Pakistan

Talk4Pak Youtube Channel

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

PTI Infighting; Brig Samson’s Revelations; Mullah Omar, Malik Ishaq Deaths; MQM’s Future; Pakistan Cricket Success

Why is the PTI infighting increasingly public? Why did Brig Samson reveal details of “conspiracy” around PTI dharna? Will PTI split up?

Why was Mullah Omar’s death announcement timed just before the second round of Taliban peace talks? Was it done by the Tajik-dominated pro-India Afghan intelligence to scuttle the talks?

Who ordered the killing of Malik Ishaq and his right-hand man and his two sons? What message does it to the sectarian outfits?

How will MQM chief Altaf Hussain’s continuing anti-Pakistan rants impact the future of MQM?

How did Pakistan pull off a stunning T20 win in Sri Lanka after winning both test and one-day series?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with Misbah Azam (www.politicsinpakistan.com) and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://vimeo.com/135357304

PTI Infighting; Mullah Omar, Malik Ishaq Deaths; MQM’s Future; Cricket Success from WBT TV on Vimeo.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x30al0q_pti-infighting-brig-samson-s-revelations-mullah-omar-malik-ishaq-deaths-mqm-s-future-pakistan-cricke_news

PTI Infighting; Brig Samson’s Revelations... by ViewpointFromOverseas

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXzTys04ng0

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

PTI Dharna

Musharraf Treason Trial

Afghan-China-Pakistan Trilateral Initiative For Afghanistan

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VPOS Youtube Channel

VPOS Vimeo Channel

VPOS Dailymotion Channel

Saturday, March 7, 2015

Pak Senate Elections; ICC World Cup; Rajapaksa on India's RAW; Netanyahu Speech

What is all the controversy surrounding senate elections in Pakistan, especially in KP and Baluchistan?

Why has the new Saudi Arabian King Salman invited Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and rolled out the red carpet for him?

What are Pakistan's chances at the ICC World Cup 2015?

Why has Sri Lanka's ex-President Rajapaksa accused India and RAW of fomenting terror in Pakistan and Sri Lanka?

What will be the impact of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech to US Congress on President Obama's efforts to reach a nuclear deal with Iran?

ViewPoint from Overseas host Sabahat Ashraf (IFaqeer) discusses these questions with special guest Javed Ellahie, Ali H Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq(www.riazhaq.com).

Pak Senate Elections; ICC World Cup; Rajapaksa on India's RAW; Netanyahu Speech from WBT TV on Vimeo.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Has Modi Stepped Up Covert War Against Pakistan?

Pakistan Helped Sri Lanka Defeat LTTE Terror

Can Pakistan Learn From Sri Lanka to End Terror?

Can Pakistan Win ICC World Cup 2015?

Can Saudi Arabia Change Peacefully?

Power of US Israel Lobby

Saturday, February 15, 2014

Sri Lanka Booms as India, Pakistan Lag Among South Asian Economies

Since the end of the civil war in 2009, Sri Lanka has been booming even as the rest of South Asia region has lagged.

Per Capita GDPs South Asia Region Source: Economist

Sri Lanka's per capita income has quintupled over the last two decades from about $700 to $3500, significantly outperforming all other South Asian economies. During the same period, Pakistan's per capita GDP has increased from $500 to $1300 while India's is up from $400 to $1400.

In addition to its high per capita GDP for the South Asia region, Sri Lanka has also excelled on Human Development Index (HDI), a key indicator of social development assessed each year by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).

Human Development Index in South Asia Source: UNDP

Sri Lanka has the fastest growing economy with the highest social indicators in South Asia region. Its economy grew at 7.2% last year and it is expected to post 8% growth this year. With a literacy rate of 91% and life expectancy of 76 years, the UNDP ranks it among countries with high human development. It has achieved this progress in spite of a 26-year-long violent insurgency by the Tamil Tigers (LTTE) which it successfully ended in 2009.

By contrast, both India and Pakistan continue to lag Sri Lanka in terms of both economic and social indicators. India's economy has slowed in recent years. India's per capita GDP has shrunk in US dollar terms this year, significantly reducing the gap with Pakistan whose GDP has also seen slow growth since 2008. India suffers from low levels of human development with a rank of 136 among 187 countries. Pakistan ranks even lower at 146.

GDP Per Capita in US$ Source: World Bank

Pakistan's per capita GDP remained essentially flat in 1990s before doubling in years 2000-2008 on Musharraf's watch when Pakistan joined the ranks of middle income countries with per capita income of $1000 or more. Pakistanis have seen a very modest growth in their incomes since 2008.

While India's human development is still low, it has continued to make steady progress in the last two decades. Pakistan's human development progress briefly accelerated in years 2000-2007 on President Musharraf's watch. Pakistan's HDI grew an average rate of 2.7% per year under President Musharraf from 2000 to 2007, and then its pace slowed to 0.7% per year in 2008 to 2012 under elected politicians, according to the 2013 Human Development Report titled “The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World”. Going further back to the decade of 1990s when the civilian leadership of the country alternated between PML (N) and PPP, the increase in Pakistan's HDI was 9.3% from 1990 to 2000, less than half of the HDI gain of 18.9% on Musharraf's watch from 2000 to 2007.

There is much Pakistan can learn from Sri Lanka's record on human and economic development as well as fighting violent insurgencies. It is especially important today as its economy and education suffer in the midst of a growing Taliban violence that threatens the very existence of Pakistan.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Can Pakistan Learn From Sri Lanka to Defeat TTP?

South Asia Lags in UN MDG Goals

History of Human Development in Pakistan

Musharraf Accelerated Economic and Human Capital Growth in Pakistan

Politics of Patronage in Pakistan

Will "Last Chance" Talks With TTP Succeed?

Monday, September 30, 2013

Can Pakistan Learn From Sri Lanka's Rajapaksa to End Terror?

"Finally, the battlefield commander fights to win the battle. But it's the political will that determines success or failure in war. If the battlefield commander is let down by lack of political will or consensus, victory is impossible to achieve." Sri Lankan Strategist Gotabaya Rajapaksa

Sri Lankan military defeated the terrorists of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (the LTTE or the Tamil Tigers) in 2009 after a war that lasted 26 years.

This period from 1983 to 2009 included a long series of talks and peace deals, all violated by the LTTE. After many years of on and off half-hearted attempts to quell LTTE insurgency, it took the determined leadership of President Mahinda Rajapaksa to declare an all-out war against LTTE with Pakistan's help to defeat the terrorist group in just three years. President Rajapksa made it his top priority. He built broad public support for his military campaign and followed through with ruthless execution of his plan.

Initially trained and supported by Raw, the Indian intelligence agency, in the 1980s, the Tamil Tigers met their bloody end at the hands of Lankan military using arms manufactured and supplied by Pakistan.

Alarmed by reports of Pakistani arms supplies to Sri Lanka in 2008, India said it wanted Sri Lanka to treat Tamils with dignity and also voiced concern that Colombo’s arms purchases may upset New Delhi’s “pre-eminent position” in South Asia. “We are facing a situation where the ceasefire (in Sri Lanka) could collapse. This could lead to a flashpoint,” National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan said while delivering the 25th Air Chief Marshal P.C. Lal memorial lecture.

India refused to supply what it considered "offensive weapons" to Sri Lanka and opposed any military solution of the "ethnic conflict" while urging Colombo to devolve autonomy to the minorities.

According the News quoting reliable sources in Pakistan, military cooperation between Sri Lanka and Pakistan has grown significantly in recent years as Islamabad, unlike New Delhi, has had no problems supplying Sri Lanka's army state-of-the-art weaponry to accelerate its counter-insurgency operations against the LTTE which finally ended with the killing of the most wanted Tamil guerrilla fighter Vellupillai Prabhakaran. The sources said it was in the first week of May 2008 that Sri Lankan Army Chief General Fonseka came to Pakistan with his shopping list of high tech arms for the Lankan armed forces, who were engaged in an intense battle with the Tamil Tiger rebels at the time.

After Fonseca's visit, Pakistan sold 22 Al-Khalid tanks to Sri Lanka in a deal worth over US$100 million. Sri Lanka also purchased Multi-Barrel Rocket Launcher System (MBRLS), cluster bombs, deep penetration bombs and rockets and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) from Pakistan, according to various reports. In fact, Sri Lanka, along with some Middle Eastern nations, has now become one of the largest buyers of Pakistani arms in the last few years.

On Jan 19, 2009, in a meeting between Pakistani Defense Secretary Lt-Gen (retd) Syed Athar Ali and his visiting Lankan counterpart Gotabhaya Rajapakse, the brother of Sri Lankan president, in Rawalpindi, an agreement was reached to enhance cooperation in military training, exercises and intelligence sharing regarding terrorism. The agreement came amid Sri Lankan media reports that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) pilots had participated in several successful air strikes against LTTE military bases in August 2008. These reports further claimed that a highly trained group of the Pakistani armed forces officers is posted in Colombo to guide the Sri Lankan security forces in their counter-insurgency operations against the Tamil Tigers.

LTTE was initially funded, trained and equipped by RAW, the Indian intelligence agency. Tamil-speaking LTTE terrorists used the Indian state of Tamil Nadu as safe haven. Palk strait separating Sri Lanka from India is just 33 miles wide. It is easier to cross than the mountainous Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

LTTE's vicious campaign of terror claimed over 100,000 lives in a country with a population of just 20 million, about the same as Karachi's population. It included aerial attacks, and use of gun boats and suicide bombings.

LTTE started using suicide bombings as a terror tactic well before Al Qaeda did. LTTE victims included Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi of India who was killed by a female LTTE suicide bomber. Another victim was former Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga who lost an eye when her election rally was attacked by LTTE. The deaths include at least 27,639 LTTE fighters, 23,790 Sri Lankan soldiers and policemen, 1,155 Indian soldiers, and tens of thousands of civilians.

Some argue that the Pakistani Taliban are a much more difficult foe to defeat. Others argue that FATA can not be "conquered". They cite history of the Russians and the British to support their claim. I see these as seriously flawed analogies.

The reality is that nobody is talking about "conquering" FATA. To the contrary, the people of FATA need to be rescued from a band of thugs and criminals who are terrorizing the ordinary people of FATA and using North Waziristan as their base of operations. The Taliban recruit and train bombers and send them out into various town of cities of Pakistan to kill innocent people. Pakistani military is not a foreign military attempting to occupy FATA. In fact, there are significant numbers of people from federally administered tribal areas who are part of Pakistani security forces.

It's also a fact that the LTTE terrorists in Sri Lanka were just as vicious and determined as the TTP terrorists in Pakistan today. LTTE made and violated multiple peace deals over a long period. Sri Lankan leaders were as patient (clueless?) as Pakistani leaders are today. It all changed with the arrival of Rajapaksa who decided enough was enough. He disregarded the usual rights groups and other do-gooders to do what had to be done to rid his country of the scourge of terrorism by taking decisive action starting in 2006.

With daily carnage in the streets of Pakistan, the nation is suffering from extremely low economic growth rates of just 2-3% a year. Over 40,000 people have become victims of the Taliban terror. Foreign and domestic investments have dried up. There are widespread blackouts and energy shortages. Few new jobs are being created. Foreign investors, tourists, sports teams and business executives are shying away from the country.

Pakistan can not afford the continuation of the status quo. There will be more casualties in the short term if Pakistan decides to declare all-out war on the Taliban terrorists. Allowing the problem to fester will only make matters worse and lead to far more damage in the long run. It must act quickly and decisively to end the ongoing reign of terror by the Pakistani Taliban and their various affiliates who share their hateful ideology and collaborate to achieve their reprehensible aims.

Does Pakistan have a Mahinda Rajapaksa? Alternatively, can Pakistani leaders learn from Rajapaksa's experience? Can Sharif Brothers in Pakistan do what Rajapaksa Brothers did in Sri Lanka?

Here's a recent video discussion of continuing terror attacks in Pakistan:

Attack on Peshawar church; Baluchistan earthquake; Should Taliban be allowed to open offices from WBT TV on Vimeo.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Sri Lanka Defeated LTTE With Pakistan's Help

Nawaz Sharif's Silence on Taliban Terror in Inaugural Speech

Taliban vs. Pakistan

Yet Another Peace Deal and Shia Blockade

Taliban Insurgency in Swat

Musharraf's Treason Trial

General Kayani's Speech on Terror War Ownership

Impact of Youth Vote and Taliban Violence on Elections 2013

Imran Khan's Social Media Campaign

Pakistan Elections 2013 Predictions

Why is Democracy Failing in Pakistan?

Viewpoint From Overseas-Vimeo

Viewpoint From Overseas-Youtube