Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Showing posts with label Net Metering. Show all posts

Friday, August 30, 2024

New Net Metering Policy: Is Pakistan's Solar Boom in Jeopardy?

Recent experience in California has shown that changes in incentives have a huge impact on residential adoption of solar power technology. Since the introduction of NEM 3.0 last year, new rooftop solar business in California has dramatically slowed. New residential solar installation applications have plunged 80%, according to Cal Matters. This has driven many solar installers out of business. The business that remains is mostly focused on adding batteries to existing solar installations.

Impact of California NEM 3.0 on Solar Business. Source: Cal Matters

California Net Energy Metering (NEM 3.0) was launched last year after heavy lobbying by the state's utility companies like PGE and SoCal Edison. It has reduced payments for the excess power exported by the consumer to the grid by 75%. This change means that the consumer is better off with storage batteries to maximize self-consumption of the power generated by the solar panels. Companies such as Tesla Solar with its PowerWall 3 battery are the main beneficiaries of this change.

With rapidly falling solar panel prices, Pakistan is experiencing a solar power boom. The country imported some 13 gigawatts of solar modules in the first six months of the year, making it the third-largest destination for Chinese exporters, according to Bloomberg. In addition, there is approximately 2.2 gigawatts (GW) of net-metered rooftop solar PV capacity connected to the grid by June 2024, according to IEEFA.

What is likely to happen to this solar boom as Islamabad considers changes to its net metering policy? A recent study published by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) attempts to answer this question.

Net Metering vs Net Billing Payback Period in Pakistan. Source: IEEFA

There are several proposals under consideration by the Pakistani government to change its net metering policy. All are designed to significantly reduce payments to the consumer for energy exported to the grid. One of these proposals likely to be adopted is to switch from "Net Metering" to "Net Billing".

Net metering transactions are usually one-to-one, so the credits are often equal to the retail rate of electricity (aka what you pay). Net billing credits are often equal to the wholesale rate of electricity (aka what your utility pays), which is less than the retail rate, according to Energy Sage. Utilities tend to oppose net metering programs, so alternative compensation programs are increasingly being used.

Analysis by Haneea Isaad, an Energy Finance Specialist at IEEFA, shows that the switch from net metering to net billing would still reduce the payback period for 5kW to 25kW solar systems combined with 50% to 70% self-consumption. She concludes that the payback period will be well under 4 years for a system that has a life of 25 to 30 years. It is better than the 5-year payback period in California under NEM 3.0.

Would consumers without solar be stuck with high electricity bills? It is quite likely because capacity charges paid to independent power producers (IPPs) accounted for 62% of energy expenditure in Pakistan for the 2023-2024 fiscal year. For the 2024-2025 fiscal year, 64% of the total power purchase price is expected to be fixed capacity costs. Lower consumption of grid electricity will result in a disproportionate impact on consumers who rely entirely on grid power.

Higher levels of self-consumption closer to 100% would require larger batteries which are still quite expensive in Pakistan. This is likely to change as traditional lead-acid battery makers switch to lithium ion batteries in the country. Recent launches of electric vehicle assembly plants in Pakistan are expected to boost the lithium-ion battery production and bring down prices in the country in the coming years, according to Mordor Intelligence.

Tuesday, September 28, 2021

Pakistan Solar Net Metering Installations Have More Than Doubled Since Last Year

Nearly 4,000 new net metering licenses have been issued in Pakistan in the July-September quarter, up from 2,000 in the same quarter last year. Vast majority of these are for solar photo-voltaic installation. Net metering solar installations are in addition to the rapidly growing off-grid solar panels across Pakistan. Higher electric utility (DISCO) bills and lower cost of solar panels appear to be driving the adoption of solar in Pakistan. Net metering allows users with private renewable energy production plants to connect to the electric grid and sell excess power to the local electric utility or DISCOs such as K-Electric, LESCO or IESCO in Pakistan.

Net Metering Installations in Pakistan. Source: Jeremy Higgs

This year has seen the fastest growth in net energy metering (NEM) growth since Pakistan launched its first NEM policy in 2015, according to data shared by Jeremy Higgs, director of operations for Islamabad-based EcoEnergy. Total number of net metering installations in Pakistan is about 16,000, according to Jeremy Higgs. National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) issued 3,334 net metering licenses with total installed capacity of 56.86 megawatt under the net-metering regime during 2019-20, according to an October, 2020 news report.

Net Metering Installations By DISCOs in Pakistan. Source: Jeremy Higgs

Surprisingly, Pakistan's biggest city Karachi is lagging significantly behind Lahore and Islamabad in net metering licenses. Nearly 25% of all net metering licenses in Pakistan were issued by LESCO (Lahore Electric Supply Company) in the July-September quarter. IESCO (Islamabad Electric Supply Company) has handed out 20% and K-Electric (Karachi Electric) 15%.

Top 10 Solar Energy Countries in 2017. Source: USAID

Back in 2017, Pakistan was ranked among the top 10 countries for investment in solar PV projects below 1 MW. Pakistan PSLM/HIES 2018-19 survey results revealed that 15.2% of all households are using solar panels as a source of energy for their homes.

Pakistan Solar Panel Imports in Millions of US Dollars. Source: FBS Via Pakistan Today

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province leads the nation with 40% of all households using solar energy. Rural Pakistan is embracing solar power at a faster rate than Urban Pakistan. Adoption of solar in rural areas of KP is at 43%, Sindh 33.9%, Balochistan 20.4% and Punjab 7.9%. Rapid decline in cost of solar panels appears to be driving the adoption of solar in Pakistan's rural areas where grid power is either unavailable or unreliable.

Monday, September 14, 2015

Pakistan Approves Net Metering and Feed-in Tariffs for Solar and Wind

Pakistani power regulators have approved a regulatory framework for solar and wind energy for both commercial and residential installations. The framework includes feed-in tariffs for commercial power producers and net metering for residential applications of up to 1 MW.

Under the new Net Metering Law, NEPRA, the Pakistani power regulator, will grant power generation licenses to solar and wind system owners. The owners will need to register the critical equipment used, particularly the make and model of inverter and generator used. Among other technical considerations, the generator must also install a manual disconnect device to take the system off the network if necessary, according to details published by PV Tech publication.

Source: PV-Tech

Net metering is a billing mechanism that pays solar energy system owners for the electricity they add to the grid. It allows a residential customers with rooftop solar panels to generate more electricity than the home uses during daylight hours and sell it to the power supply company. It will require a bi-directional meter (or two separate meters) for implementation.

Pakistan has already introduced feed-in tariffs (FiTs) for larger renewable power systems to supply electricity to the national grid on a commercial scale. It paved the way for a 1000 MW Quaid-e-Azam solar park being built in Bahawalpur.

Pakistan's renewable power policy and regulatory frameworks have drawn praise from international law firm Eversheds which has described the country as “one of the most exciting renewables markets globally, with an abundance of potential”. Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) of Pakistan's CEO, Amjad Ali Awan has said that "Pakistan’s renewable market is relatively new but it provides an attractive investment opportunity with compelling structures which make it bankable as well as marketable."

Net metering law is necessary but not sufficient to promote widespread use of renewable energy. It will take serious coordinated efforts of Pakistan power regulator NEPRA, the country's nascent solar industry and various utilities like K-Electric to start implementation. Meanwhile, consumers could install a stand-alone rooftop solar system that can be connected to the grid in future. They just need to make sure to select high-quality equipment, particularly inverter and switch, for this purpose which will most likely be acceptable to utilities.

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